Author Topic: DOW broke 17,000  (Read 90572 times)

Offline Cedar

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DOW broke 17,000
« on: July 03, 2014, 09:03:29 AM »
It is currently sitting at 17,044.28.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2014, 10:15:22 AM »
17,074.27

Offline busymomx3

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2014, 10:47:58 AM »
Whew, we are saved, I can stop prepping for SHTF :)...

Offline digitalartranch

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2014, 10:58:50 AM »
maybe I haven't been listening closely enough but I haven't heard Jack mention much about the stock market lately - well - not in the way he did when the show was first starting.

To me, this should be good news but I think its less the stock market actually becoming more valuable and more the dollar weakening.  my .02


Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2014, 11:03:40 AM »
Two year ago when some economist guy (who was right about the last 2 crashes), said that we would crash again after it hit 17k, I thought nahhhhhhh.. we will never hit 17,000.

Cedar

Offline TexDaddy

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2014, 12:34:34 PM »

Offline NCFreedom

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2014, 12:55:35 PM »
scary

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #7 on: July 03, 2014, 01:00:53 PM »
Two year ago when some economist guy (who was right about the last 2 crashes), said that we would crash again after it hit 17k, I thought nahhhhhhh.. we will never hit 17,000.

Cedar

A few days ago, a guy on NPR (yes, NPR) said not to get too excited about the figure, as a large degree of it is due to inflation.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2014, 01:04:26 PM »
A few days ago, a guy on NPR (yes, NPR) said not to get too excited about the figure, as a large degree of it is due to inflation.

That is what I was figuring.. a "false number".. not good to invest in. Right?

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2014, 01:38:53 PM »
In my lay person's opinion, I don't think the size of this index really means anything with regards to forecasting a collapse.
In fact, the S&P500 is a much better index of American industry, but the DOW is the traditional favorite.

I have an IRA that's an accumulation of old 401k rollovers.  My goal is to do a tick better than the rate of inflation, and it's usually a short of that goal  :-[

It's a tough choice:

1) hold cash and knowingly lose ~2% annually due to inflation
2) invest into conservative equities like bluechip stocks, plan to earn 3-5% if things go well, but lose 20% if there's another 2008
3) invest into aggressive stocks, earn 10-20% when things go well, or lose up to 80% if there's another 2008

I do a mix of 1 and 2 in my retirement accounts.

Offline Louisiana Suvivor

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2014, 09:09:58 PM »
my great grandpa invested heavily after the crash and depression........maybe i'll have the same opportunity. but i'm probly better off investing into tangibles like gardening, tools, skills, and community.

maybe just maybe i'll be able to retire one day. (i''m only 26) i'm pretty sure my generation is gonna get effed.

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #11 on: July 03, 2014, 09:21:28 PM »
That is what I was figuring.. a "false number".. not good to invest in. Right?
The fed has been printing money since 2009 like it's going out of style, quantitative easing and all.  That money has to go somewhere and some of it is going into the stock market.  That drives up the value of stocks. 

If you print more paper without anything to back it, it's worth less, not more.  If you buy stocks with that money it doesn't make the companies worth more, it just inflates the value of the stocks.  Besides, stocks have no inherent value anyway.  It's perceived value.  If the market has a bad mood or everyone needs their cash for something else, the values fall.

The DOW industrial is more of a mood sensor than a true measure of national prosperity.

Offline Louisiana Suvivor

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2014, 09:24:47 PM »
The DOW industrial is more of a mood sensor than a true measure of national prosperity.

so what you're saying is that if the DOW was our wife she's bloated, hormonal, and giving the county, let's say, "blue spheres"???

just a joke ladies. i love all of you and especially my darling wife :D

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #13 on: July 03, 2014, 09:44:26 PM »
This is just the beginning, this market could easily keep going up for another 5 years. The Dow is up more than 100% in the last 5 years, the S&P is almost 120%, and the Nasdaq is 160%. There is so much cash sitting on the sidelines, we've got a long way to go before we get to bubble popping levels.

Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #14 on: July 03, 2014, 09:55:16 PM »
This is just the beginning, this market could easily keep going up for another 5 years. The Dow is up more than 100% in the last 5 years, the S&P is almost 120%, and the Nasdaq is 160%. There is so much cash sitting on the sidelines, we've got a long way to go before we get to bubble popping levels.

so you are saying we have some more breathing room to finish our preps before the crash?  that is kind of a nice thought

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #15 on: July 03, 2014, 10:36:10 PM »
so you are saying we have some more breathing room to finish our preps before the crash?  that is kind of a nice thought

That's one way of looking at it.

Honestly, while it could get me run out of TSPF on a rail, I see the stock market as a great investment with much less risk than is commonly accepted (especially amongst preppers) when compared to just about anything else over the long-haul.  It's arguably one of the easiest ways to beat inflation and the bankers at their own game. I think everyone should take advantage of it, but that's just me and I tend to be a bit contrarian when it comes to the prepper party line.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2014, 10:50:29 PM by FreeLancer »

Offline Louisiana Suvivor

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #16 on: July 04, 2014, 08:13:20 AM »
it's definitely not blasphemy to play stocks, just very risky. but that's life. like everything you have to do your research. and you have to "roll the dice". some preppers aren't gonna do that while others are probably making a shit ton of money. all types with all stripes. i'm just saying I'M not above anything to help make preps better.

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #17 on: July 11, 2014, 12:43:19 PM »
Two year ago when some economist guy (who was right about the last 2 crashes), said that we would crash again after it hit 17k, I thought nahhhhhhh.. we will never hit 17,000.

Cedar

October is when we have had the most Historical crashes over the last 100 years. 1929, 1987, 1989 (the mini crash, 2008, and maybe 2014? I did two podcast episodes last week talking about the world economy. I'm not so sure that we will have a nasty crash but we might because we are long overdue for a correction. Nothing goes straight up.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #18 on: July 11, 2014, 03:57:33 PM »
The passing of Dow 17,000 serves mostly as a reminder of “the two rules of forecasting” cited by Bill Berger — the late, legendary mutual fund manager of the late 20th century — in 1995 at a time when everyone was getting excited that the Dow might soon breach 5,000:

    Rule 1: For each forecast, there is an equal and opposite forecast.
    Rule 2: Both of them are wrong.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-17000-is-just-a-number-2014-07-10

Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #19 on: July 11, 2014, 07:44:58 PM »
The passing of Dow 17,000 serves mostly as a reminder of “the two rules of forecasting” cited by Bill Berger — the late, legendary mutual fund manager of the late 20th century — in 1995 at a time when everyone was getting excited that the Dow might soon breach 5,000:

    Rule 1: For each forecast, there is an equal and opposite forecast.
    Rule 2: Both of them are wrong.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-17000-is-just-a-number-2014-07-10

Cedar

Yeah I'll stick with my 15 years of industry experience. Again Cedar no markets go straight up without a correction pull back and the long it goes the harder the pull back will be. If the Down breaks under 15,000 over then next 2 months then it will continue the up trend. If not and continues to climb I will be selling all my positions by mid September and I would strongly advise all of you to do the same because at that point October will be a blood bath.

Offline Louisiana Suvivor

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2014, 12:51:34 PM »
I'm expecting the blood bath. It's gonna happen eventually. Let's get it over already!

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2014, 06:41:16 AM »
I'm expecting the blood bath. It's gonna happen eventually. Let's get it over already!

I agree 100%. The longer it's held off the bigger the crash will be. I've pulled some money off the table and I'm keeping a close eye on things in case I need to pull the trigger before mid September.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #22 on: July 14, 2014, 08:32:21 AM »
It is at 17,072.75 at the moment, went as high as 17,085.00 this morning..
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-climb-citigroup-results-in-view-2014-07-14

Cedar

endurance

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #23 on: July 14, 2014, 09:58:06 AM »
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5akEgsZSfhg

It just seems so appropriate for this thread. ;D

Offline ncjeeper

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #24 on: July 14, 2014, 10:48:39 AM »
Another one bites the dust by queen will be appropriate too here soon.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #25 on: July 14, 2014, 11:31:37 AM »
I don't mean to nit pick, but I haven't seen much "actionable intel" in this post, regarding when to sell off.  Max makes a prudent point about October though.  End of September is often a financial inflection point for many businesses.  Not only are earnings reported, but it's a major seasonal shift for many industries.

I've got a traditional IRA I no longer contribute to, that's around 2/3 equities (blue chip stocks).  Most of those pay regular dividends, and so even when the valuation drops, I still make a few hundred bucks in quarterly dividends that I keep in the "cash equivalent" bucket in the IRA. 

For one concrete example see CAT.  Their ex dividend date is 7/17/2014.  That means anyone who owns the stock at close of trading on that date will receive a divided in the future (weeks out).
So today the stock is slightly inflated because no one wants to forfeit that dividend payout.  Chances are it'll drop on 7/18 because that's now the longest duration from the next quarter's eligibility date for dividend payout.

endurance

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #26 on: July 14, 2014, 01:16:16 PM »
I think most folks here are wise enough to know that forecasting the market is a fool's errand.  One very old trick is watching the comments threads on bullish and bearish articles in Marketwatch, Yahoo! Finance, etc.  When the comments get over 50% bullish, watch out!  Markets are much more prone to crash when the majority of investors have removed the possibility from their mindset.  When the average Joe starts believing the crap about a 31,000 DOW, lookout, trouble is not far behind.

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #27 on: July 14, 2014, 01:55:56 PM »
Good point endurance. I myself follow charts and trend lines to see what has happened, combined that with relative world economic news and you can sniff out traps in the market. Our last bottom in the market, beginning of the current trend, was back on 11/16/2012. The DJIA hit 12,471.49 that day and has been on a steady incline ever since. Our last small pullback was in the end of Jan this year. So in just over a year and half the DJIA is up over 37% and will most likely go a little higher before a major correction happens. The thing that bothers me the most is that this rally is that it has not been based on solid fundamentals and if the market does not start to let off pressure soon things will explode. At this point it’s like 1929 on roids. In order for the up trend to continue the market needs to slide back a good 1,500 points over at least a 4 week period. If we can manage that then I see the DJIA hitting 20,000.

My podcast for tomorrow is about this topic if any of you care to check it out. I love doing my own podcast but the thing that sucks is I can't listen to TSP like I use to, if at all.  :(
« Last Edit: July 14, 2014, 02:04:00 PM by Max »

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #28 on: July 14, 2014, 02:07:37 PM »
I have seen no rhyme or reason to the stock market for a long time.

Greece barely sneezes and the DOW crops hundreds of points. It is blamed on Greece.
Something else blows up elsewhere major and the DOW gains 100+ points.

B-i-e-b-e-r gets arrested and it drops points.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 200 points in March as soft economic data from China and rising tensions in Ukraine helped trigger the biggest one-day drop for U.S. stocks in more than six weeks.

Shares of Citigroup jumped more than 3% today -- despite the impact of a $7 billion settlement over its promotion of toxic, mortgage-backed securities.

Cedar

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #29 on: July 14, 2014, 03:14:23 PM »
I think most folks here are wise enough to know that forecasting the market is a fool's errand.  One very old trick is watching the comments threads on bullish and bearish articles in Marketwatch, Yahoo! Finance, etc.  When the comments get over 50% bullish, watch out!  Markets are much more prone to crash when the majority of investors have removed the possibility from their mindset.  When the average Joe starts believing the crap about a 31,000 DOW, lookout, trouble is not far behind.

This is why I see so much more room for stocks to rise over the next few years.  There are billions of dollars in doom and gloom cash, losing value on the sidelines, because the majority of investors are still freaked out from the last crash.