Author Topic: The Fourth Turning - History repeats itself  (Read 3339 times)

Offline PreppingMom

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The Fourth Turning - History repeats itself
« on: November 06, 2012, 05:53:45 PM »
Last night my husband and I had a conversation about what the coming years may bring, regardless of who wins at the polls today. He sent me two links to articles about the 1997 book "The Fourth Turning". He purchased the book several years ago, has read it twice, and often recommends it to others. After I read both articles and we discussed them, I felt both had valuable information that should be passed along. I know we are all busy people, but these are really helpful in giving insight today as to what the future holds so that we might be prepared.

The first was posted at Lew Rockwell and is an interview with Neil Howe, one of the authors of the book, and as an introduction explains the concept of the Fourth Turning and the characteristics of the different generations. The interview was done in 2010.

The second was recently posted on ZeroHedge (11-5-12), taken from a blog entry posted 11-4-12 at The Burning Platform, and is an article using the Fourth Turning concepts and "predictions" and relating them to events we're experiencing today and will experience in the years to come.

If you find them valuable, please pass the links on to others who you think will also gain from this insight.

Into the Fourth Turning
An Interview With Neil Howe
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig11/howe1.1.1.html

From the interview:

The Fourth Turning is an amazingly prescient book Neil Howe wrote with the late William Strauss in 1997. The work, which describes generational archetypes and the cyclical patterns created by these archetypes, has been an eye-opener to anyone able to entertain the notion that history may repeat itself. At the time the book was published, the Boston Globe stated, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets." Read this visionary interview and see for yourself.


Will a "Prophet" Assume Command?

Blog post by Jim Quinn ~ The Burning Platform
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=43039

Same article with notations at Zero Hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-05/guest-post-will-prophet-assume-command

From the book:

“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning 1997

If the previous paragraph resonates at all with you, you will want to read the article. Having this insight may help you make decisions today that will pay dividends in the coming years.

I don't put much stock in the political climate of today, but I do believe in our country, her founding principles, and the basic goodness of the American people. May God be with us in what is surely to come.



Offline NWPilgrim

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Re: The Fourth Turning - History repeats itself
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2012, 06:56:51 PM »
The articles were interesting but I did not find anything that is very specific.  I think we all know we are in for a crisis, that we are in the crisis now and it will get much worse before it does better.  Have you read anything about this that gives any insight as what else is to befall us?

If I read this right, then the Gen Xers are much like the Lost Generation between WWI and WWII. That would not bode well as that is when several dictators rose to power in Europe, and gave rise to the socialist movements and massive growth of govt programs.  Not what we need right now.

Offline DrJohn

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Re: The Fourth Turning - History repeats itself
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2012, 09:04:19 PM »
Very interesting!

Offline PreppingMom

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Re: The Fourth Turning - History repeats itself
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2012, 11:05:26 PM »
@NWPilgrim

I ran your reply past my husband and he suggested you might want to read:

Election 2012: How The Winner Will Destroy America
 by Brandon Smith
http://www.alt-market.com/articles/1139-election-2012-how-the-winner-will-destroy-america
also with notations at:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-06/election-2012-how-winner-will-destroy-america

As you read this now, the new President of the United States is being “chosen” or has been chosen.  Whoever the “winner” happens to be is ultimately irrelevant.  They do not count.  They are mascots.  Middle management cronies running through the motions to distract the masses while enacting the policies of their superiors.  They are fry cooks serving greasy overpriced democracy with no real sustenance.  What does matter, though, is what comes next.  I’m sorry to say that the idea that one man will do less damage than the other is a naïve sentiment.  Democrat?  Republican?  Obama?  Romney?  The crimes and calamities wrought will be exactly the same.  Take a look into my crystal ball and see the future.  Here is how the winner will destroy America…

What follows is six points that the author projects we will see regardless who is voted in as president.

As I write this NBC and others have called the election for Obama. If you have been preparing, my husband would suggests stepping it up and getting ready for the long haul. He thinks it will be at least 15 years to clean up the mess and during that time we will see a change in the way our government operates - just like in the crises of the Revolutionary War, Civil War, Great Depression, etc.  He also suggest reading the book as you will come away with a much clearer picture of what is to come, not the specific, but the general results of the fourth turning.

Hope this helps!

Offline NWPilgrim

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Re: The Fourth Turning - History repeats itself
« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2012, 12:09:18 AM »
Thanks PreppingMom, I will followup on those articles and get the book to dig into it more.  The premise of generational cycles makes sense.  I would like to see how it maps in history and does it apply just to the US or internationally, and what are the upcoming patterns.

Offline NWPilgrim

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Re: The Fourth Turning - History repeats itself
« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2013, 11:12:50 PM »
Making this thread Undead again!

I finally got around to reading the book Fourth Turning by Strauss.  Very interesting.  He discusses his observations and analysis of 80-100 year cycles with four "turnings" each from the 1400s through late 1990s.  I have not finished it but he makes a good case for why this pattern of four generation types keeps cycling and what to expect from each combination of the four generations.

Basically sometime between 2005 and 2025 he predicts the latest fourth turning ("Crisis") will occur.  It will start with a catalyst event which may not have immediate huge changes but will start a chain reaction of events.  As events escalate there will be demand for more order and stricter compliance and will culminate in a Climax event that is unforeseeable at this time but will be a pivot point to change to a new era in society (speaking mainly of the US but will likely have global implications). 

The last Fourth Turning was 1929-1945.  The stock market crash was the catalyst event that lead to the Depression and call for more order and "pulling together".  This resulted in Fascism in Europe and the New Deal in the US. The Climax was the end of WWII and atomic bomb which launch America into a new world as the first super power.

Perhaps the 2008 crash and especially TARP was a catalyst event for this current Fourth Turning?  Or was it 9/11 which launched the DHS, TSA, NDA, etc?  Or is it yet to happen?  He also points out that this can result in a dramatic shift either way, toward US fascism or a smaller more focused govt and united population.

I haven't read the chapter yet, but he has one on how to prepare oneself for the coming Fourth Turning, much as you would mentally for the change from Autumn ("Unraveling") to winter ("Crisis").  I am in the tail end of the Boomer generation and the way he describes where we have been and are starting to go is spot on from my observations.

That is my understanding of the book so far.  What are your thoughts on what it means for what is to come? 

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: The Fourth Turning - History repeats itself
« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2017, 06:00:20 PM »
Making this thread Undead again!
[deep_pompous_voice] And so... it shall be.  [/deep_pompous_voice]
*clears throat*

Anyway, today I ran across this two-parter linked from Lew Rockwell's site:
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2017/11/13/the-unbearable-slowness-of-fourth-turnings/
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2017/11/14/the-unbearable-slowness-of-fourth-turnings-part-two/#more-163450

The author discusses questions like "Why is this particular Fourth Turning taking so darned long?" and "Is the Deep State(tm) trying to stamp out this crisis turning, and how badly are things gonna snap back on all of us for their efforts?"  Also some speculation about likely flashpoints in the near future.  If you have a spare 10-20 minutes, it's worth the read.

Offline chad

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Re: The Fourth Turning - History repeats itself
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2017, 11:34:07 AM »
[deep_pompous_voice] And so... it shall be.  [/deep_pompous_voice]
*clears throat*

Anyway, today I ran across this two-parter linked from Lew Rockwell's site:
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2017/11/13/the-unbearable-slowness-of-fourth-turnings/
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2017/11/14/the-unbearable-slowness-of-fourth-turnings-part-two/#more-163450



The author discusses questions like "Why is this particular Fourth Turning taking so darned long?" and "Is the Deep State(tm) trying to stamp out this crisis turning, and how dbadly are things gonna snap back on all of us for their efforts?"  Also some speculation about likely flashpoints in the near future.  If you have a spare 10-20 minutes, it's worth the read.

Good stuff Alan and NWPilgrim, thanks for posting