Over-Estimating and Under-Estimating Police Action

[thefuzz1290]

So I've been browsing survival forums for a few months now and I've mainly seen 2 views on the police during SHTF (total collapse): 1. They're going to control the area with martial law, stealing guns, food, and ammo from preppers, and 2. They're going to disband there aren't going to be able police at all. I'm happy to find this forum, because it seems like there are more reasonable people on here than other forums where people plan on shooting anyone that comes within 1/2 mile of their super secret (and probably non-existant) compound.

A little of my background before I start the main post. I'm 30 years old and I've been a police officer since I was 21, but no prior military. I worked for a larger metro-Atlanta police department (about 750 officers) and recently left for a smaller metro-Atlanta city department (about 100 officers). I was working for the larger department when Katrina hit and we were flooded with "survivas," as well as worked during major incidents and training exercises. Now I'll get on with the 2 views.

View 1
Not only is declaring martial law not going to happen at any large scale, it isn't even feasable. I currently live/work in a county with almost 800,000 people. If you take every police officer, sheriff deputy, and reserve officer/deputy, you wouldn't even have 2,500 total law enforcement officers (and count 500 as being supervisory). 2,000 officers cannot control a population of 800,000, even with the help of the National Guard. Right now, on this gorgeous Sunday morning, I'm protecting about 50,000 people with 6 other officers...how about that ratio. Now the county seat, areas around the police departments, hospitals, and thouroughfares to each may be protected, the outlying areas will not. Not to mention you would not receive cooperation with city and college departments to leave their city centers, police departments, or local hospitals. Even if you called in 100% of your police force, you'd still have some that live outside of the local area, not even respond to protect their own family.

Also, during SHTF, I doubt there will be any paychecks (even if money is worth anything) coming anytime soon. My city doesn't have a super secret food storage basement, nor did my previous employer, so I don't foresee getting paid in food. That being said, many in law enforcement would abandon their posts, just as they did during Katrina, to protect their family....I would. Now I don't foresee this as a bad thing, because you have law enforcement spread out amongst the community to help (with like minded people) organize and stabalize. This brings me onto view 2.

View 2
Once a cop, always a cop...at least for most of us. Once you're in law enforcement for any signifigant time, you don't stop being a cop when you're home or out in public. If SHTF and all law enforcement disbands, they'll be spread out in the community, most likely trying to stabalize and restore order. A surprising amount of police, at least in the south, are preppers (and double or triple that number that are hunters). They will be secure enough with their own resources to help the community and band together. They will inherently be looked upto to solve the problem, because, like it or not, most people see the government as a stabalizing force.

Now a problem with that is there will be a percentage, I work with one now, who believe that because they have a stock-pile of guns/ammo, they'll be fine. They'll band together, and under the false pretense of the law, they'll steal/rob/kill to get what they need to survive. With the access to AR platformed rifles and ammo (I can get to 10,000 rounds of .223 within 10 minutes if I needed to during SHTF), they'll be well armed and decently trained.

Final Thoughts
Most people over-estimate or under-estimate the capabilities of police. I have more active shooter training than most people at my current department, and I've participated in multiple active shooter drills....and every single one has been a mess. However, I still have that training and knowledge that I could pass on to a small and capable group and be deadly. I have more firearms training than the average person, but I'm only required to shoot once a year to get a minimum passing score on paper targets. People also view police as robots, acting the same way every time, and often forget they're human. Police suffer from the same problems the rest of humanity does, including bias, arrogance, bad days, depression, etc. However, since we're subjected to more stress than the average person, many times being placed in life/death situations, we're better equipped mentally to handle a SHTF situation, which makes us valuable or deadly....depending on the person.

[Alan Georges]

Thanks for the view from the inside.  It's about as good as I'd hoped, and it's good to hear first-hand that that's the situation.  Actually made me smile a little.

Of course, being a realistic assessment, it can't all be sunshine and roses:

Now a problem with that is there will be a percentage, I work with one now, who believe that because they have a stock-pile of guns/ammo, they'll be fine. They'll band together, and under the false pretense of the law, they'll steal/rob/kill to get what they need to survive. With the access to AR platformed rifles and ammo (I can get to 10,000 rounds of .223 within 10 minutes if I needed to during SHTF), they'll be well armed and decently trained.

As you said, there will be a percentage.  Any estimate on how high this bad percentage runs in the departments where you've worked?  Are these guys for-real-well-trained, or more on the wannabe end of things?

Glad you like the forum.  The moderators do a good job of keeping the trash talk down, especially when it comes to posts bashing police and others who put their lives on the line.  Please, keep the insightful first-hand views coming.

[Saint-TyR]

we're better equipped mentally to handle a SHTF situation, which makes us valuable or deadly....depending on the person.

I agree on this last statement. As a firefighter/EMT with prior military, it will all come down to the individual character and personality that is influenced by the group/community in which they live in. I am reading a book "The Gift of Fear" and it describes that everyone is walking a fine line when it comes to committing a serious act of violence. It all comes down to your principals and the need for survival. Therefore a choice has to be made... To be valuable or deadly!

Link to the book(must read):
http://www.amazon.com/Other-Survival-Signals-Protect-Violence/dp/0440508835

Stay Safe.

[thefuzz1290]

As you said, there will be a percentage.  Any estimate on how high this bad percentage runs in the departments where you've worked?  Are these guys for-real-well-trained, or more on the wannabe end of things?

I would estimate, in both departments I have worked at, the percentage that would turn to vigilantism (if that's a word) is less than 1%. Then again, I work in the south where most cops are "good ol' boys." Now as for training, the guy I work with now can shoot, but he's no highly trained special ops soldier. He'd probably be the guy, like Jack mentions in a few of his shows, that will pick you off from a couple hundred yards and walk into your house and take your stuff. He lives close to me and was testing him to bring him in to start a group since I know he can shoot well...though after multiple comments, he's on his own lol. Now the other department I worked for, a lot of the SWAT guys are riding that thin blue line....they're highly trained and very dangerous. They also live very close to each other, hang out with each other, and swap wives with each other (not an exageration, but inserted to demonstrate how close that group is).

I agree on this last statement. As a firefighter/EMT with prior military, it will all come down to the individual character and personality that is influenced by the group/community in which they live in. I am reading a book "The Gift of Fear" and it describes that everyone is walking a fine line when it comes to committing a serious act of violence. It all comes down to your principals and the need for survival. Therefore a choice has to be made... To be valuable or deadly!

I actually just finished "The Gift of Fear" Friday night and he points out something very interesting and true. The author (paraphrasing) basically said there if you ask a person if they're capable of killing someone, almost every single one would say "yes" and give an example ("protecting my family" is the most popular). Now he gets a little liberal at the end in his support of "bullet control" and advocating mandatory locks on all firearms and such, but its still an excellent read.

I just picked up "Warrior Mindset: Mental Toughness Skills" by Michael Asken, Dave Grossman, Loren Christensen, and Brad Thor. Grossman was the guy who wrote "On Killing," which is a must read for anyone in the military, law enforcement, or who is in a position where they might have to kill someone.

[Alan Georges]

I would estimate, in both departments I have worked at, the percentage that would turn to vigilantism (if that's a word) is less than 1%.

Not as bad as I'd feared.  Still, even that can be bad enough.  But put it this way: that's waaay below the, oh call it 10% bad apples in the general population.

Read Grossman's "On Killing" earlier this year, learned a ton.  Will have to pick up some of these other recommendations.

[thefuzz1290]

The "bad apples" in police work are bad in other ways. There's still about 20% that would willingly violate someone's rights to make an arrest on a person that really needs to go to jail. About half that would lie about facts to make that arrest. Now this is for legit criminals, since a lot of officers can't bring themselves to let someone go if they screwed up or they don't have quite enough evidence.

The 1% were those I could think of who would become vigilantes and willingly kill for supplies much earlier than most.

[ConcoursRider]

Great post and great information.

[SheepdogSurvival]

Thanks for contributing, good info. I've often wondered and feared what interaction may be like with local LE in a bad sustained emergency.

I'm in an LE role in my current position in the Coast Guard and we deal mostly with non US citizens and given the amount of power we have and how higher up restricts us it really scares the shit out of me thinking about the potential of dealing with local LE in a SHTF scenario (since that is not where I work). To clarify the guys I work with (tactical types) are pretty good at following orders and the general attitude is that our higher ups will not let us 'take the gloves off' so to speak and really get work done so it's hard to tell what they would be capable of doing. Fortunately I feel if we were ordered to do anything that was blatantly unconstitutional enough of us would reject that idea to stop it. We have a shit load of good ole boys throughout the guard, especially at the smaller units that would likely be a great help to the community in which they are stationed, and just like your dept's the tactical guys are much more trained and more likely to follow bad orders or go rogue unfortunately. I think it is because the personality types that are attracted to violent professions can be kinda similar for the bad and the good guys.

[backwoods_engineer]

I actually just finished "The Gift of Fear" Friday night and he points out something very interesting and true. The author (paraphrasing) basically said there if you ask a person if they're capable of killing someone, almost every single one would say "yes" and give an example ("protecting my family" is the most popular). Now he gets a little liberal at the end in his support of "bullet control" and advocating mandatory locks on all firearms and such, but its still an excellent read.

Yeah, you can't listen to deBecker on gun control, but I found a lot of the rest of it useful.

Like Jack says, just filter through and learn what you can from it, and leave the rest.

[Shaunypoo]

Good thread.

I think a lot of the impression people have of how they think police will react in this scenario boils down to their own personal interaction.  Everyone has had an interaction with a LEO.  From being arrested to seeing one at the park, they are there. 

Personally, most of the LEO's I have met were from when I was waiting tables in college.  They came in at the same time every day and were decent tippers as well as decent fellows.  I did have the honor of serving one LEO who came in by himself at a different time once in awhile and he was rude and condescending.  Poor tipper as well.  The other officers, with whom I struck up a relative relationship, knew the officer I was talking about and felt the same way.  Just give him his stuff and leave him alone.  I also served a few highway guys and they were a little more stoic but good guys as well.

I personally have a good feeling the LEO's will do what they can while they can, but will still resort to protecting family in the end, just like the rest of us. 

I have always made it a habit of thanking LEO's when I get the chance and being as friendly as possible to anyone with more gun training than me.

LEO's will be excellent resources for family and friends in this scenario, so cultivating relationships now is essential.

[ncjeeper]

I personally have a good feeling the LEO's will do what they can while they can, but will still resort to protecting family in the end, just like the rest of us. 

Thats an accurate statement.

[Freebirde]

Usually when ending a conversation with a LEO, I say "I hope you have a boring shift.".   That often get a startled look then a smile.

[Grannywhiskers]

Fuzz...thank you so much for your post.  It made a lot of sense to me.  I live in a VERY small town in the south as well.  I have had concerns about the reaction of our local LEO's in a SHTF situation.  Enough concern that we are currently voting for a Sherriff and I tried to consider a SHTF situation when making my decision.  I hope I have chosen the right one 

[SentinelSheepdog]

I agree on this last statement. As a firefighter/EMT with prior military, it will all come down to the individual character and personality that is influenced by the group/community in which they live in. I am reading a book "The Gift of Fear" and it describes that everyone is walking a fine line when it comes to committing a serious act of violence. It all comes down to your principals and the need for survival. Therefore a choice has to be made... To be valuable or deadly!

Link to the book(must read):
http://www.amazon.com/Other-Survival-Signals-Protect-Violence/dp/0440508835

Stay Safe.

I'll second the recommendation for "The Gift of Fear" and throw out another great LEO / first responder book, Emotional Survival for Law Enforcement, http://www.amazon.com/Emotional-survival-law-enforcement-officers/dp/0971725403/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1352278472&sr=8-1&keywords=emotional+survival+for+law+enforcement. This one really hit home for me and is a must-read for overcoming the hypervigilance, aggression, and doldrums that come with the job.

[SentinelSheepdog]

Agreeing with the other messages on the thread so far with one more thought...
I feel lucky as both an LEO and citizen that we have the police that we do in the United States. Think about England, where the police there may not even carry guns! Our neighbor to the South, Mexico, deals with huge problems of police corruption- compared to that country, corruption here is just a drop in the bucket. Greece's police forces now are dealing with austerity protestors who may or may not be protesting the lost wages of public sector workers (such as LEOs). As bad as things are here, we've got it good....

[11 Bravo]

Think your dead on Fuzz.  I've been LEO for 17 years, and 7 in the military.  The idea that we will be rounfing folks up, taking guns, imposing martial law is ludicrous.....there simply isn't enough uniforms to do it, nor the will.....if things got that bad, we wont be coming to work, we will be with ourfamilies.

As far as bad apples on the force, 1% is a pretty good number, with 5% -10% falling into "blockhead" status. The numbers are no different then any other profession...

[Shaunypoo]

Think your dead on Fuzz.  I've been LEO for 17 years, and 7 in the military.  The idea that we will be rounfing folks up, taking guns, imposing martial law is ludicrous.....there simply isn't enough uniforms to do it, nor the will.....if things got that bad, we wont be coming to work, we will be with ourfamilies.

As far as bad apples on the force, 1% is a pretty good number, with 5% -10% falling into "blockhead" status. The numbers are no different then any other profession...

With the current political climate, they won't need to come and take our guns.  They will know who has what registered guns and just impose a "tax" on a yearly basis on those who won't turn them in.  Then they will offer "incentives" to those who rat out others.  Then there will be a lot less people that will need to have guns taken.  If it was to happen, that is how.

[Chemsoldier]

Excellent post, thank you for making it.

[gpd240]

Fuzz,
   Great post. As a fellow LEO (11 yrs) I agree with your post. I know I have run through the scenarios in my head of when I would and would-not go to work. I work in a much smaller department than you do in Indiana. In my department there is a guy who had that same 1% mentality that you talked about. I did what I could in discussions with him and at least now when he talks about SHTF he includes talking about having seeds and getting meat on the hoof from a family member in his plan.
   I am also a member of the dreaded DHS response team. .. What kills me is the mentality that we LEO's will drop everything to go to some area and enforce martial law upon citizens and take their guns, and bury them in plastic coffins, etc.... I have recently had the chance to go to a DHS statewide training. We didn't have secret meeting, board black helicopters, or go to abandoned warehouses to ready them for the mass exodus of civilization. What we did was make sure that we were self supporting to not burdened an affected area of disaster. We worked hand in hand with Fire - EMS - DNR - Mental Health - Civil Engineers - Dept. of Trans - and others to practice a response to a city affected by a tornado.

[thefuzz1290]

Thanks everyone for the positive responses, its much better than I got on other survival boards when they found out I'm LE.

[JohnDoel]

Two books I would advise are On Combat and On Killing both by Dave Grossman and they are very good reads and the people I've met through being a reservist same as your national guard I know a lot of people with guns. And none of the one's I know through the military would go to pillaging the ones who haven't even considered prepping have basically said that they'd hire themselves out as guards to stop looters for food of course if the doesn't pan out they might try to loot but I haven't met anyone who specifically plans on being the looters or vigilantism.

[Chemsoldier]

And none of the one's I know through the military would go to pillaging the ones who haven't even considered prepping have basically said that they'd hire themselves out as guards to stop looters for food of course if the doesn't pan out they might try to loot but I haven't met anyone who specifically plans on being the looters or vigilantism.

This.  I have known far more gun owners who gave the half-*ssed joking "my AR will help me get food" than I have deputies who thought they would take things from people.  That is not to say they are not out there or that gun owners are bad.  Just that the threat of looting officers is not too much worse than gun owners that dont prep.  They will be armed, worried about their security and starving.  You know how those preppers with spouses that are not flipped think about how satisfying it will be for the spouse to see all those preps in action that you spent money on?  Imagine if TSHTF and your spouse is asking why the family spent  all that money on guns when you are starving and havent been robbed?

Because of their authority and position in society bad LEOs will be a threat...but there are a LOT LOT LOT of grasshoppers with firearms in this country.  Steve Harris has it right, its easier to feed your neighbors than shoot them.

[Adam B.]

I had to give a +1 on this thread. It is good to get realistic viewpoints from people who are actual LEOs vs. people (like me) who just run their mouths without having that inside knowledge.

In the city where I live I am going out on a limb to say that the percentage of crooked cops is much higher than other places — but that just comes from personal experience, the experiences of friends, and what you see in the news. I have no love for the police at all — but I also know that it is disproportionate because of where I live. I mean, when I first moved here the Federal Government was about to disband the city's police force to replace it with a federal force because of how many unarmed people they were outright killing. It has been a big problem here but I have noticed an improvement int he 18 years I've lived here too.

And I still have the realistic view that even though I have seen more crooked cops here (I even had a group of uniformed officers try to rob me in an alley once) than I care to count, I cannot imagine they are ALL garbage.

ALSO, my experiences with LEOs outside of the city are by and large professional or friendly and seem to be honest and out to protect their communities. That is why I never had a dislike for police (other than hating speeding tickets and the normal feelings like that we all have).

When the SHTF my plan is to "bug out" along a route that will take me to where I grew up and have family on a large amount of land, but a route that normally takes me 12 hours to get there, when the highway gets me there in 4 hours. The 12 hour route is MUCH more "scenic" if you know what I mean — with tons of places to camp out or get off the main roads.

My assumption is that large cities are magnets for the crooked ones because of various reasons like — much more crime and an un-willingness for good people to want to put themselves in harms way like that (when they could get a job in a friendly community), the need for many more heads to "fill the ranks," so the screening process is not as stringent (they just need to get more bodies on the force) — the additional stress of the crime and B.S. a cop deals with in a large city vs the country can probably turn a good cop into a bad one over time (just like when I work at a crappy job I care about at first, but then 2 years later don't give a rat's ass about)... etc etc.

Like he said "they are human too."

But those reasons are the very reasons I do not want to be anywhere near the big cities when the SHTF.

Not that either one of these ass clowns are better than the other — but look at the county-by-county map of the elections. The big cities are the only counties that carry democrat candidates in these presidential elections. The rest of the country is dark red. Not that I care about left / right politics — but the RED areas are where you will find me when the SHTF!

[osubuckeye4]

Hmm, I had made a post but I don't think it stuck. Darn. 

This post will be much less eloquent, but hopefully more concise.


I don't disagree with anything the OP said, but I do think that all of these depends on the type of SHTF situation we're talking about.


Cops (in urban areas) are trained, in the situation were talking about,  to control large centralized groups of people. They are not at all equipped or prepared to handle situations where trouble breaks out all over the place in small pockets.


I really believe that it all comes down to centralization/scope of the issue.

An urban police force could handle a centralized uprising of 25,000 people who are all contianed with a few blocks with relative ease. (say, a massive armed rush on a specitifc location like city hall)

They would have an extremely hard time handling 25,000 people committing crimes over a 7 mile radius who have no real centralized organization. (say, a massive armed rush on thousands of bank branches in a city)


Then again, this is just my .02

As far as experience? I'm not law enforcement but I witnessed a ton of rioting over my 4 years at Ohio State. No, I didn't participate in rioting because I don't think my favorite football team losing, or cops telling me to get out of the middle of the street are valid reasons to flip over someones car. I just watched from apartments or stood behind police lines and watched out of interest.

What I noticed was that, essentially, any time cops rolled into a situation where everything was contained to 2-3 blocks, it was controlled within an hour with very minimal damage. The few times that things spread out over a 10-12 block radius, there was signifficently more damage and things took much longer to contain. Of course during these riots people weren't shooting live rounds at cops, but then again the cops weren't shooting live rounds either. It was essentially bottles vs. rubber bullets... until the cops called in the tanks and choppers, and then it was (thankfully) over. 

All of that being said, the cops only have so many armorded carriers (tanks) or choppers and so much manpower. You can't roll 100 tanks with dozens of officers inside them out to every bank branch in a city, because most police departments only have 1-2 of them total.


Basically, my master point is that the further and more spread out the chaos, the less effective police will be in containing it... as there are only so many choppers, tanks, cans of tear gas.

[LibertyBelle]

Thanks everyone for the positive responses, its much better than I got on other survival boards when they found out I'm LE.

That's just one of the many reasons why I love the folks here at TSP. Hubby, and now oldest DS, are also LEOs.  Oldest DS's best friend since childhood is like another son to us (they even went through the academy together), and he's also a LEO.  And now our 2nd oldest DS is considering following in their footsteps.

The idea that we will be rounding folks up, taking guns, imposing martial law is ludicrous.....there simply isn't enough uniforms to do it, nor the will.....if things got that bad, we wont be coming to work, we will be with our families.

As far as bad apples on the force, 1% is a pretty good number, with 5% -10% falling into "blockhead" status. The numbers are no different then any other profession...

Agree 100%

[sbd2112]

In a true SHTF scenerio the government will if possible move Guard Units in place of Police...and from my experiance I think they would move Units from far away palces so that those soldiers have no ties with that certain community. It will be much easier for them to "control" the population if the Unit has no family,friends, or ties to the people...just my two cents..and history has proven to repeat. One other thing..many police friends and family agree that there will be rogue officers that will use the badge in the first hours of a SHTF scenerio to gain access to what the can.

[Adam B.]

As far as experience? I'm not law enforcement but I witnessed a ton of rioting over my 4 years at Ohio State. No, I didn't participate in rioting because I don't think my favorite football team losing, or cops telling me to get out of the middle of the street are valid reasons to flip over someones car. I just watched from apartments or stood behind police lines and watched out of interest.

Yeah, but what about when your team WINS a football game — or say, your head coach gets fired because he helped one of his assistant coaches rape little boys? Those seem to be valid reasons for rioting and flipping over cars in the city I live in (along with LOSING the football game).

Not a day goes by when I can't help but think about how much trouble we are all in thanks to the degenerates of this society.

[themonk]

Great thread. Thanks for the input!

[mithgar50]

I had never really thought about LEO in a SHTF scenario because due to lack of numbers I figured they would be ineffective.  However this post has made me consider them as a resource in this scenario.  Thinking of them in terms of organizers and helping small groups after they break up puts a new perspective on them for me.  Thanks

[Citizen Zero]

Been a while since I have showed up around these parts...

I find your perspective very insightful, thank you for sharing it. I have a feeling that it is pretty close to the mark for most law enforcement personnel (or at least I hold out hope that is the case).

Welcome to the forums ;-)

c0