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Survivalism & Self Sufficiency Topics => Food Preps => Food Legislation & News => Topic started by: swanson on April 12, 2009, 09:02:43 AM

Title: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: swanson on April 12, 2009, 09:02:43 AM
Warning of food price hike crisis

A crisis is unfolding in the UK as people in poverty struggle with rising food prices and the recession, the Save the Children charity has warned.

Warning of food price hike crisis (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7982056.stm#id7980000/7983000/7983026)

It comes as new figures from The Grocer magazine show food prices rose by more than 18% over the last year.

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=20714.0) for Fair Use info.
Title: Re: Warning of food price hike crisis; BBC
Post by: ColdHaven on April 12, 2009, 09:47:50 AM
How much longer until that happens here? Thoughts about this happening in countries like England, France, and other big countries makes me fearful about what might happen here. It also helps me keep concentrated on prepping food.
Title: Re: Warning of food price hike crisis; BBC
Post by: chris on April 12, 2009, 10:04:57 AM
Breed Less, Spend Less, Save more.
Title: Re: Warning of food price hike crisis; BBC
Post by: “Mark” on May 27, 2009, 12:40:17 PM
Food prices went up a little, but a good chunk of it is inflation.


In my trip last weekend down into the States, I noticed something interesting: the food was more expensive than in Canada. Some things like bananas and corn were cheaper, but others, especially prepackaged foods, were more expensive once you factored in the dollar exchange.
Title: Food Prices Likely To Start Ticking Up
Post by: Patriot:Ex Machina on August 26, 2009, 09:26:14 AM
POSTED FOR FAIR USE:

http://www.thetreeofliberty.com/vb/showthread.php?t=74867 (http://www.thetreeofliberty.com/vb/showthread.php?t=74867)
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/26/business/economy/26food.html?_r=2&ref=business (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/26/business/economy/26food.html?_r=2&ref=business)

___________________________________

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Food Prices Likely to Start Ticking Up

By WILLIAM NEUMAN
Published: August 25, 2009


Prices for beef, milk, eggs and some other grocery items have been dropping for several months, providing relief for consumers who suffered through the steep increases of a year ago. But prices are likely to start edging upward again as the economy recovers, according to a new federal report and economic analysts.


Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=20714.0) for Fair Use info.
Title: Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise
Post by: swanson on October 15, 2009, 05:45:39 AM
Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/why-do-you-pay-so-much-for-these-foods/19190587/ (http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/why-do-you-pay-so-much-for-these-foods/19190587/)

Dan Burrows
Oct 15th 2009 at 6:00AM

If there's any silver lining to a recession -- albeit a thin one -- it's that consumer prices typically go down. Make no mistake, deflation is a sign of a sick economy, but at least the net effect of cheaper prices for the basic necessities -- food, clothing and shelter -- helps folks get by when they are struggling to make ends meet.

But consumers should brace themselves for things to change, especially at the supermarket. As the global and U.S. economies emerge from the downturn, economists predict that there is going to be some sticker shock at the checkout line. ...

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=20714.0) for Fair Use info.

The end result? Consumers should keep an eye on oil prices, which not only impact what they pay at the pump but also what they pay at the checkout counter.
Title: Re: Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise
Post by: Steve W on October 15, 2009, 06:01:13 AM
Also in today's news:

Quote
Value of UK farmland could double in five years
The value of farmland in the UK could double in the next five years, new research claims.

The surge in pricing is set to be driven by a shortage of quality farmland as the global population expands and demand for food increases.
.....


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/6308822/Value-of-UK-farmland-could-double-in-five-years.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/6308822/Value-of-UK-farmland-could-double-in-five-years.html)

Title: Re: Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise
Post by: Herbalpagan on October 15, 2009, 06:54:43 AM
I only go out and do a real grocery buy about once a month. I'm able to see real well that things are already changing. At one point this summer, between price increases and less in the package type of thing, I have seen prices on many items go up 20% !  Everyone needs to be aware that tangible items like food are one of our best "insurance" buys and should be gotten in bulk if you can NOW.  Cyclical weather, disease and so on have a huge affect on food prices, and there are some big ones that happened this year, but we will also be contending with rising fuel prices being tacked on to each item.
Title: Re: Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise
Post by: chris on October 15, 2009, 07:06:25 AM
Quote
Make no mistake, deflation is a sign of a sick economy, but at least the net effect of cheaper prices for the basic necessities -- food, clothing and shelter -- helps folks get by when they are struggling to make ends meet.

Sure sign that someone has been brainwashed by socialist economics. Deflation is a sign of a healing economy.
Title: Re: Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise
Post by: Kayzonara on November 06, 2009, 05:47:00 AM
I went to store a new tube of toothpaste and discovered it was smaller than a tube of the same brand bought a few months back.  >:(
Title: Re: Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise
Post by: ColdHaven on November 06, 2009, 08:18:20 AM
Why use corn and soybean for fuel when Kudzu is prolific and you can barely get rid of it when you need to? Kudzu is being used in other countries for biofuel.
Title: world food supply
Post by: Thox Spuddy on November 14, 2009, 07:53:32 AM
POPULATION:  Global Food Supply Near the Breaking Point
By Stephen Leahy

BROOKLIN, Canada, May 17 (IPS) - The world is now eating more food than farmers grow, pushing global grain stocks to their lowest level in 30 years.

Rising population, water shortages, climate change, and the growing costs of fossil fuel-based fertilisers point to a calamitous shortfall in the world's grain supplies in the near future, according to Canada's National Farmers Union (NFU).

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=20714.0) for Fair Use info.

http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=33268 (http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=33268)
Title: Re: world food supply
Post by: Thox Spuddy on November 15, 2009, 10:35:34 AM
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5AC3BS20091113 (http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5AC3BS20091113) :o
Title: Re: world food supply
Post by: Thox Spuddy on November 22, 2009, 02:27:22 PM
 :o
GM seeds threaten food supply, claim researchers
By Caroline Scott-Thomas, 11-Sep-2009

Modern seed companies are reducing crop diversity – and this could have serious consequences for food supply as the climate heats up, researchers claimed at the World Seed Conference in Rome this week.

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=20714.0) for Fair Use info.


http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Financial-Industry/GM-seeds-threaten-food-supply-claim-researchers (http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Financial-Industry/GM-seeds-threaten-food-supply-claim-researchers)

world food supply threatened by genetically modified seeds. we need to support non-gm seeds by buying from places like seedsaver.org






fixed your link for you
Title: Food storage & gardening = excellent investments. Food price inflation returns
Post by: Dave on December 14, 2009, 07:45:16 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBYSp0.XfXZs&pos=14 (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBYSp0.XfXZs&pos=14)

Excerpts:

“The prospect of a further bout of food-price inflation in 2010 cannot be ruled out since many of the factors that contributed to higher prices in 2007 and 2008 are still a feature.”

“The tendency for food prices is up, it’s not down,” Unilever Chief Executive Officer Paul Polman said

"Rice may surge 63 percent.."

“increasing pressure on food prices to rise,” Nomura International Plc said

"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Dec. 3 that corn and soybeans will rally through 2011. Corn will reach $4.75 a bushel next year and $5 in 2011 on higher demand for fuels made from the grain, the bank said. Soybeans may reach $11 a bushel in the next 12 months and average $12 a bushel in 2011, Goldman said. "

"Food output will need to rise 70 percent in the next four decades as the global population expands to 9.1 billion in 2050 from 6.8 billion, the FAO estimates. "

Title: Fastest Food Inflation Since Riots Means Milk Up 39%
Post by: kiteflyer on December 14, 2009, 02:16:50 PM
   This looks ominous! With Fuel and Food which translate to Fasting! The Three F's are coming!

                    kiteflyer

 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBYSp0.XfXZs&pos=14 (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBYSp0.XfXZs&pos=14)
Title: Re: Fastest Food Inflation Since Riots Means Milk Up 39%
Post by: liftsboxes on December 14, 2009, 02:19:27 PM
Food Fuel and Fun, right?
Title: Re: Fastest Food Inflation Since Riots Means Milk Up 39%
Post by: Herbalpagan on December 14, 2009, 03:36:30 PM
not going to be a hardship for people who are prepared! now's the time to add more to all of your preps while you can afford to.
Title: Re: Food storage & gardening = excellent investments. Food price inflation returns
Post by: Herbalpagan on December 14, 2009, 03:40:05 PM
People who aren't building a good stock of food and supplies are going to be in real trouble. Everyone should be trying to find a garden spot, working the soil and planning next years garden right now!
We're planning to double our production in all areas of the garden. After listening to one of Jacks podcasts, we've also decided to naturalize some of our herbs as well.
Title: Re: Food storage & gardening = excellent investments. Food price inflation returns
Post by: homeshow on December 14, 2009, 05:32:15 PM
as herbalp said production is the key.  grow/produce more than enough for your family.  then you will have some to sell/barter/trade.  remember as we are now a net food importer.  now the price of foods will rise when the dollar falls.  plus all those other issues like famine and global production shortages.
Title: Re: Food storage & gardening = excellent investments. Food price inflation returns
Post by: sclindah on December 14, 2009, 07:42:12 PM
I agree. We doubled our raised beds/garden last year and are working to double it again this spring along with building a greenhouse and planting more fruit trees and berries. We figure we have to prepare to grow, produce and can most of our food right here for the future and share what we can't can with family.  Having good soil takes time to prepare and learning how to grow things in your area of the country also takes time to learn!  It's a good investment, better than a lot out there.
Title: Food shortages are coming; food prices may double in 2010.
Post by: Sid on December 22, 2009, 10:13:49 AM
Here is a frightening article about supply in the 2009-2010 food production cycle.

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html (http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html)

The article is lengthy and frightening.

One thing leads to another.  The author thinks that resulting rising food costs in foreign countries will cause foreign central banks to dump US Treasury debt instruments and US dollars in an attempt to drive up the purchasing power of their own currencies so as to drive down their own cost of importing food.

He also points out that many desperate financial institutions like AIG have taken positions in risky over the counter agricultural derivatives in order to raise cash now, and that as panic hits the agricultural markets that these positions will set off a new wave of financial and bank failures.   
Title: Re: Food shortages are coming; food prices may double in 2010.
Post by: LdMorgan on December 22, 2009, 03:48:07 PM
+1 for Sid---this is one of the most important posts on TSP.

The situation is simply this: the US government has been lying about domestic food production as blatantly as the Communists ever did in the 1950's.

If you remember when, all production was always at record levels even in the midst of their pandemic famines. Millions died while the government lied.

Now OUR government is doing exactly the same thing, and in so doing is setting US up to be the victims of the next major American famine.

There have been others--see http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/105255-0/ (http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/105255-0/)

But this one will not be as temporary as before. Food production is failing world-wide because the essential food production mechanism is broken. The culprit, as I see it, is Climate Change.

Not "Global Warming"--which is a fraud, but Global Cooling, which is a fact.

It is changing rainfall patterns and bringing unseasonal cold in areas where basic food crops are grown and these changes are so extreme that many of the food crops we depend on can no longer survive.

It will get worse long before it gets better.

I had personally not expected domestic famines until at least 2012. So I thought there was "still time".

Heads up, folks. There is NO time left! Put in your gardens, put up your stocks. Buy while you still can.

It's not just that prices are going to go up. There will soon be bare shelves and empty bellies in what was formerly the Land of Plenty.

The Third Horseman is but a hoof-beat away.





Title: Food prices set to SKYROCKET says CBS News
Post by: USAFRaven on January 07, 2010, 09:33:21 PM
Found this tonight while watching the News...way to start a panic,  Gotta love the news,  I blame Global warming.


http://wcbstv.com/national/food.prices.arctic.2.1411809.html (http://wcbstv.com/national/food.prices.arctic.2.1411809.html)

2010 8:14 pm US/Eastern
Arctic Blast Likely To Increase Food Prices
Wheat Production In Midwest, Fruit Harvesting In Florida In Jeopardy Of Being Impacted By Frigid Temperatures

NEW YORK (CBS)
 Fruit like Valencia oranges, seen here in Arcadia, Fla., may be damaged by the Arctic blast currently enveloping the nation.
AP

 * Florida Stunned By Perilous, Frigid Weather
      (1/7/2010)

The widespread Arctic freeze will have an impact on more than just your heating bill. Prepare for sticker shock at the grocery store.
From produce to meat, juice to bread, the sharp drop in temperatures blanketing most of the U.S. could add up to a spike in prices at the grocery store.

"This will be painful and it will take a while to recover from," Aaron Elstein said.

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=20714.0) for Fair Use info.
Title: Re: Food prices set to SKYROCKET says CBS News
Post by: inthego on January 08, 2010, 12:42:37 AM
Have Rush Limbaugh hock orange juice again!  lol

The commodity markets always eat this stuff up even if no one cares.  (Pun intended)  ;D
Title: Re: Food shortages are coming; food prices may double in 2010.
Post by: ebonearth on January 11, 2010, 07:46:35 PM
Funny someone in my cloud just Tweeted about this NOW. Man I just love how our fellow TSPers are on the pulse!
Title: Re: Food shortages are coming; food prices may double in 2010.
Post by: gigaJack on January 11, 2010, 11:37:28 PM
My company is an agriculture commodity trading company that also gives paid advise. I asked one of our analysts if he thought the soybean market was going to be short this year. He said yes and our company is betting on it.

I asked him what he thought about the comments the Ag department was saying about it being a record crop year. He said it was not what he was hearing from the farmers.

gigaJack
Title: Re: Food shortages are coming; food prices may double in 2010.
Post by: gromit on January 12, 2010, 09:40:24 AM
I stopped off at the grocery store last night to pick up an item (cheddar cheese) for a dish my wife was making.  As I usually do, I went up and down the isles looking for deals so I could stock up on any items for our food preps.  It seemed to me that the prices on everything have risen substantially over the past couple of months.

I think there are three reasons for this:

1)  The topic of this thread.  Food shortages.
2)  Fuel costs are beginning to rise again.
3)  Inflation is finally starting.

Let me briefly comment on the third item.  As has been documented in many places and mentioned by Jack on the podcast many times, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been creating money out of thin air like never before since late 2008 (well, actually they created a bunch at the end of 2008 and have returned to more normal activity but you get my point). 

When this started, many economists in the Austrian School (see www.Mises.org (http://www.Mises.org) for example) have been very concerned about eventual inflationary effects.  So far, the inflation, as measured by the government has been mild and masked by the price decreases that happened when companies were liquidating excess inventories during the beginning of the bust late last year.  Part of the reason was that the new money was being held by the banks in the form of excess reserves.

I am wondering if with some banks beginning to return to closer to usual lending practices due to an apparent economic recovery some of the new money is finally hitting the economy resulting in inflation.  It will be interesting to see what the official inflation numbers for 2009 say.  Not that I really trust them. :)
Title: Re: Food shortages are coming; food prices may double in 2010.
Post by: kiteflyer on January 13, 2010, 04:51:27 PM

 It will all start from Grains and Oils and the lack of them! Be prepared!

        kiteflyer

 http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/ (http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/)
Title: Re: Food shortages are coming; food prices may double in 2010.
Post by: Pathfinder on January 13, 2010, 07:13:58 PM
Locally in ND, the wheat crop is up in volume, but the protein levels in the wheat are way down. IIRC (hey, I'm a rancher, not a farmer!) 13-14% is good, average protein at one commercial silo (400k bushels per trainload) so far (as of November) was running about 10%.

The local grocery store sale fliers are thin, huge print and pictures (fewer items per page). Wally World has had empty shelves sporadically in various products. And prices are way up - milk over $3 a gallon. Bulk at Sam's is still good, though, flour less than $7/25# and rice is pretty good too. Sugar at $11 for 25#. No dried beans to speak of though.

Yeah, I thought we had a little more time too.
Title: Food Prices Surge Most In 26 Years
Post by: Son_of_the_Republic on April 23, 2010, 06:54:43 AM
Quote
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Higher prices for vegetables helped drive U.S. wholesale prices higher by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in March, reversing a drop in February, the Labor Department estimated Thursday.

The producer price index has risen by 6% in the past year, led by a 23% rise in energy prices, the government agency said. It’s the largest year-over-year gain since September 2008

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-prices-jump-07-on-higher-food-prices-2010-04-22?dist=beforebell (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-prices-jump-07-on-higher-food-prices-2010-04-22?dist=beforebell)
Title: Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise
Post by: Thox Spuddy on May 02, 2010, 11:11:03 AM
http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/why-do-you-pay-so-much-for-these-foods/19190587/ (http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/why-do-you-pay-so-much-for-these-foods/19190587/)

Title: Re: Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise
Post by: Herbalpagan on May 02, 2010, 12:23:12 PM
I believe that inflation has already hit. Many of the price increases come in the form of a change in packaging...less inside. Some comes from fewer sales and coupons. I keep track of my food purshaces for prep reasons and believe that food has actually risen about 20 percent in many of the items I buy. I was told that meat was going up a great deal in the near future for the simple reason that the government promotes farmers growing ethanol corn instead of feed corn.
Whatever the reason, if it's a decent price; better get it now while you can. Grow a garden, raise rabbits or egg layers to help off set the costs.
Title: Re: Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise
Post by: Roknrandy on May 02, 2010, 12:27:09 PM
I've noticed the same HP, The coupons in the paper are getting fewer and fewer and I've noticed the dates don't go out as far as they used to so you have to use them sooner.
Title: Re: Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise
Post by: hanzel on May 02, 2010, 01:55:21 PM
I believe that inflation has already hit. Many of the price increases come in the form of a change in packaging...less inside.

Herbalpagan,

Since the Bureau of Labor Statistics removed Food from the CPI and Inflation numbers there is no "food inflation", its just those greedy farmers, wholesalers, truckers, grocers, ( insert this weeks congressional scapegoat here ) gouging the poor innocent consumer and if you reelect them they promise they will rectify the problem after the next election.

I have used the "Coke" index for a long time.  What is the cheapest I can get a 2 liter coke for, since I like to buy it in bulk.  When I started, $1 was the normal price and 77 cents was the cheap sale price.  Now $1.79 is the normal price and $1.25 is a good sale price ( and sometimes if it is "old" coke they will have 5 for $5 ).  If I was not covered in poison ivy today I would be working on my 2 acre future homestead getting the garden section ready.  The only thing slowing down my move out there is I need a high speed internet connection for working at home. ( Before anyone thinks about me getting Sat. internet,  a Sat. internet connection will not work well since I work on sites already connected via Sat. and need a latency of less than 1000 ms )
Title: Re: Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise
Post by: I.L.W. on May 02, 2010, 01:56:10 PM
Another thing I've noticed is the small grocers are now moving to reduced inventory with JIT stocking. While we used to see discounts for older items to reduce their inventory, now they run out before having to mark anything down.  That saves them money, so I understand it.  But there are a lot of people who have traditionally relied on discount products or food liquidation stores to get by, now they're turning to food-stamps.  

From a survivalist perspective, it also hurts the ability of the store to recover from even a short interruption of service.  If a small town gets snowed in for example, the shelves in the stores will run out quickly, they have nothing stored beyond what you see on the shelf.  

Then there's the limit to "can swapping" it creates. For the uninitiated, "Can swapping" is a techniques grocers use to remain competitively priced when fresh produce is scarce. For example, if it's a bad year for corn, there won't be a lot to go around.  If they mark up the price to $3.00 an ear, even though the market may demand it, consumers think they're being ripped off and the store's business hurts.  In their inventory however, they have thousands of cans of corn from last year's harvest.  So they mark down the canned corn to satisfy some of the demand, allowing them to retain a lower price on fresh corn longer. They can keep it on the shelf at an accessible price point for the consumer without running out or thinning their profit margin, so they save face in the eyes of the public.  When the supply recovers, most consumers were none the wiser.

Now lets say we run out of fresh corn in a store without a secondary inventory.  What little there is will be all that's available, and will run out quickly. As such, the prices skyrocket, the supermarket looks bad, you pay more or go without.
Title: Re: Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise
Post by: Thox Spuddy on May 02, 2010, 05:11:18 PM
Here is an article on what effect the Gulf oil spill will have on food prices:
http://businessjournalism.org/2010/04/30/find-ripple-effects-of-the-gulf-oil-spill-in-your-area/ (http://businessjournalism.org/2010/04/30/find-ripple-effects-of-the-gulf-oil-spill-in-your-area/)
Not enough? How about the effect of the Iceland Volcano on food prices?
http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/18532 (http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/18532)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on May 02, 2010, 06:57:39 PM
HP: good positive points and advice.
Here's some more stuff:
About rising food prices in India:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/9055516 (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/9055516)
This is interesting as it is from 2008 and all the conditions have since gotten worse concerning the causes of rising grain cost worldwide:
http://static.rnw.nl/migratie/www.radionetherlands.nl/currentaffairs/080227-wfp-food-crisis-redirected (http://static.rnw.nl/migratie/www.radionetherlands.nl/currentaffairs/080227-wfp-food-crisis-redirected)
Title: Surging costs hit food security in poorer nations (and here too)
Post by: sdcharger on June 06, 2010, 12:32:54 PM
Thought this was a relevant article.

""
Surging costs hit food security in poorer nations

By JOE McDONALD, AP Business Writer
Sunday June 6th, 2010
 
Families from Pakistan to Argentina to Congo are being battered by surging food prices that are dragging more people into poverty, fueling political tensions and forcing some to give up eating meat, fruit and even tomatoes.

Scraping to afford the next meal is still a grim daily reality in the developing world even though the global food crisis that dominated headlines in 2008 quickly faded in the U.S. and other rich countries.
 

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=20714.0) for Fair Use info.  Poster did not provide a link, sorry.
Title: Re: world food supply
Post by: Thox Spuddy on July 11, 2010, 08:26:00 AM
Vegetable prices to soar in Australia due to intentional or accidental poisoning:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/asia_pacific/10559447.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/asia_pacific/10559447.stm)
Title: Food Pantries Running Low in Many Cities!
Post by: kiteflyer on July 16, 2010, 09:44:07 PM

    No one web link to site all areas but a general google search will turn up many locations.This is a sure sign that things are going to get a lot worst in big cities soon. I thought this should be posted to warn all survivalist here. Good luck where ever you reside in the coming months your going to need it.The low fruit has all been picked. Maybe Obama will start a food drive,nationwide but if the dollar crashes all bets are off.

                    kiteflyer

           http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&tbs=nws%3A1&q=food+pantry+running+low+&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai= (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&tbs=nws%3A1&q=food+pantry+running+low+&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=)

                                 
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: inthego on July 17, 2010, 11:47:29 AM
I love the one link that talks about how illegal immigrants got there food stamps cut or taken away...

bummer.. should not have had them to begin with!  >:(
http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/55188 (http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/55188)
Title: Empty Store Shelves Coming to America
Post by: dep190 on July 18, 2010, 08:02:45 AM
Empty Store Shelves Coming to America (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIVVL43qPXY#normal)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on August 07, 2010, 09:00:34 AM
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e7de20ca-a18a-11df-9656-00144feabdc0.html (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e7de20ca-a18a-11df-9656-00144feabdc0.html)
 

Edited by Thox Spuddy 9/5/2010, in accordance with DMCA rules and regulations: http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=20714.0 (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=20714.0)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LdMorgan on August 07, 2010, 10:24:23 AM
Yeah--the food news is bad all over and getting worse fast.

As the US loses topsoil at the rate of one bushel for every bushel of corn or wheat harvested, the land loses it's ability to produce. As it does so, not only does the harvest get smaller, it gets less nutritious.

Starving grains don't have as much food value for humans, so they need more of it.

They won't get it now because the harvests are getting slim, slim, slim!

Buy what you can. Grow what you can. Store what you can. However much you do will not  be enough, but it may get you through the worst of the lean times.

Right now more people are growing their own food in the United States than ever did at the height of the Victory Gardens program in WWII.

I've seen more gardens here in FL than I can shake a stick at, and one home where every square foot of the property that wasn't covered by the house was being cultivated.

Those people know what's coming.

Some famine advice: when the lean times come, starve yourself and your family as much as you dare. Anyone too fat (in comparison) becomes an irresistible target in time of famine.

Put nothing in your trash that indicates you are eating better than your neighbor. They WILL find out if you do, and your neighbors will kill you for a crust of bread when they get hungry enough.

Your goal should be to survive just well enough to be stronger than anyone else when the famine is finally over.

You'll need some serious strength then.



Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: homeshow on August 09, 2010, 06:51:45 PM


Buy what you can. Grow what you can. Store what you can. However much you do will not  be enough, but it may get you through the worst of the lean times.

Right now more people are growing their own food in the United States than ever did at the height of the Victory Gardens program in WWII.


we have 7 acres and i have seen people grow a surplus on less than 2 acres.  so i beg to differ on the however much you do will not be enough.  also as to the people growing more than durring WWII.  is that proportional or due to the massive increase in population since WWII?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LdMorgan on August 10, 2010, 12:58:46 AM
....also as to the people growing more than durring WWII.  is that proportional or due to the massive increase in population since WWII?

Well, the US population in 1945 was 139,928,165 persons. They had planted over 5,000,000 Victory Gardens by the end of the war.

Now, in 2010, the population is about 308.4 million, and of those, about 90 million households have gardens.

So, as the population slightly more than doubled, (220%) gardens have increased about 18 times over. Call it 1800%.

(And that's not even considering how many households may have more than one gardener. It could be Mom, Pop, and 12 kids in some.)

But it's clear that not only are more people gardening, a much larger proportion of the population is now gardening, as compared to the end of WWII.

I'm glad you asked about that, Homeshow. That's really heartening news.



Title: Re: Surging costs hit food security in poorer nations (and here too)
Post by: kiteflyer on September 02, 2010, 05:36:11 PM
Update! Here!
 
       kiteflyer
 
 http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/30-08-2010/114809-doomsday_food_prices-0/ (http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/30-08-2010/114809-doomsday_food_prices-0/)

   The worst weather on record coupled with the practice of speculation in the commodities markets are set to send food prices skyrocketing, bringing misery and starvation to large swathes of the world’s population. Are we set to see food riots this winter?


    When reproducing our materials in whole or in part, hyperlink to PRAVDA.Ru should be made. The opinions and views of the authors do not always coincide with the point of view of PRAVDA.Ru's editors.
Title: Re: Surging costs hit food security in poorer nations (and here too)
Post by: womule on September 03, 2010, 06:28:03 AM
@ sdcharger

Can you post the link to this story?  I need to share it with some people
Title: Re: Surging costs hit food security in poorer nations (and here too)
Post by: womule on September 03, 2010, 06:31:17 AM
Just found a related article.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5igVteTqmTh6MMMNt2_CG5mbzracwD9I0A9R81 (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5igVteTqmTh6MMMNt2_CG5mbzracwD9I0A9R81)

BEIJING — China has ordered local leaders to cool a surge in politically sensitive food prices by raising vegetable production amid rising tensions in poor countries over surging food costs.Mayors were told to make sure local markets have a week's supply of vegetables, said a Cabinet announcement on Friday.

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=20714.0) for Fair Use info.
Title: Re: Surging costs hit food security in poorer nations (and here too)
Post by: AtADeadRun on September 03, 2010, 06:35:00 AM
A slightly longer version of the article than the AP one is here (http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9G5HLL00.htm).

Also, folks, be mindful with AP stories; the AP's official "fair use" policy is that no more than 5 words from one of their stories can be used with permission (read payment).  This is obviously errant nonsense, but they have a tendency to lawyer up against random individuals in an effort to discourage anyone from quoting them extensively.  Best practice with AP-sourced stories is to a) find another source or b) paraphrase the content and add a link.
Title: Re: Surging costs hit food security in poorer nations (and here too)
Post by: womule on September 03, 2010, 08:12:33 AM
Here's another one

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/now-meat-price-surge-raises-fear-of-food-inflation-2069227.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/now-meat-price-surge-raises-fear-of-food-inflation-2069227.html)

Freakish weather conditions and soaring demand from China, Brazil and other fast-emerging economies have pushed meat prices around the world to a 20-year high. International food prices have risen to their highest in two years, shooting up five per cent between July and August.

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=20714.0) for Fair Use info.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on September 03, 2010, 11:01:18 AM
I'm back to square one with the new place.  Currently I'm so focused on getting it secured, insulated, fenced (for the dogs and horses), and ready for winter that I haven't even had a chance to figure out where to put in the raised beds yet.  The good news is while I had the excavator on site I was able to bury two 275 gallon IBC totes and plumb them to store water from my gutters.  That said, my priority come March will be to get some beds in as soon as the snow melts.  I wish I had more time before winter!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: womule on September 03, 2010, 12:46:59 PM
http://m.ft.com/cms/s/0/5f6f94ac-b6bc-11df-b3dd-00144feabdc0.html (http://m.ft.com/cms/s/0/5f6f94ac-b6bc-11df-b3dd-00144feabdc0.html)



Fears grow over global food supplyBy Javier Blas and Jack Farchy in London, Courtney Weaver in Moscow and Simon Mundy in JohannesburgTwo days of unrest in Maputo, Mozambique, left seven people dead and 280 injured after the government decided to raise bread prices by 30%Wheat prices rose further on Friday in the wake of Russia's decision to extend its grain export ban by 12 months, raising fears about a return to the food shortages and riots of 2007-08.

Edited due to copyright issues -- please see here (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=20714.0) for Fair Use info.
Title: Re: Surging costs hit food security in poorer nations (and here too)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on September 03, 2010, 07:13:24 PM
@ sdcharger

Can you post the link to this story?  I need to share it with some people
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9G5HLL00.htm (http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9G5HLL00.htm)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on September 04, 2010, 12:56:22 PM
FYI! Prepare for it now!

     kiteflyer

 UN calls meeting on food price concerns!

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11177346 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11177346)

Food prices, and wheat in particular, are so important for food security and even the political stability of countries."

 
Title: Make sure your food preps are in place, it is coming...
Post by: spooky-1 on September 23, 2010, 07:26:30 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/09/22/un.food.security.poverty/index.html?hpt=C1 (http://www.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/09/22/un.food.security.poverty/index.html?hpt=C1)
Title: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: womule on October 08, 2010, 08:38:35 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIVVL43qPXY#ws (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIVVL43qPXY#ws)

i think this video is a little overdramatic.  i have higher hopes for our future.  but i do like the point that was made about the bottled water in boston
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: womule on October 08, 2010, 08:45:37 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TG-IOxUOYHI#ws (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TG-IOxUOYHI#ws)
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: womule on October 08, 2010, 08:50:45 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=145lHsoI1qc#ws (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=145lHsoI1qc#ws)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsjAHb6M84I# (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsjAHb6M84I#)

most of these videos were made in the last year.  people need to learn to be prepared.  if everyone always had 14 - 30 days of food stored at home this woudlnt ever be a problem for anyone
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: hanzel on October 08, 2010, 08:50:56 AM
thanks !
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: rustyknife on October 08, 2010, 08:58:29 AM
Good post. Just another in your face reminder why we prepare and why new to this life style can get good advise and council here.
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: PAGUY on October 08, 2010, 07:08:18 PM
Womule this is a good post that just puts more backing to the prepping lifestyle.
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: mesta26 on October 08, 2010, 07:42:21 PM
Went grocery shopping tonight and I wish I had taken pics.  A lot of empty shelf space, signs saying "sorry we are out".  We haven't had any issues in my area that would have caused this.  Made me wonder........
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: daved on October 08, 2010, 08:47:19 PM
Went grocery shopping tonight and I wish I had taken pics.  A lot of empty shelf space, signs saying "sorry we are out".  We haven't had any issues in my area that would have caused this.  Made me wonder........
There are things that can cause shortages that aren't anything to be concerned about (not saying anything about your situation, just in general).
I manage a food warehouse, and from time to time things come up that cause us to run out of items. Here is the most recent example. We distribute a line of crackers. They happen to be on sale in one of the large chains in the area. At the same time there was a change in the items that the stores sell. Some stores went from 5 facings to 25. Yes we knew the sale was coming up, and yes we knew we needed more for the resets, but the two combined pretty much wiped my warehouse out. I also supply 2 additional small warehouses with these items, so they were wiped out too. I also know another warehouse in our system had the same problem I did (we rely on each other for support when things like this happen). So - it is quite possible that someone will walk down the cracker aisle in these stores and see bare shelves (or at least low stock). Sure it's an inconvenience if you're looking for a particular item, and yes it costs us sales, but it definitely isn't an emergency.

Now, with all that said about this one incident I have more to say about the system in general. It is very easy for the system to fall apart. We have a list that comes out monthly showing how many days of inventory are in every warehouse in the company. The idea is to have as little as possible. The "best" warehouses have 5 - 7 days. Now that is normal movement. If there was a big run on food it would be gone much more quickly than that. We service the major stores daily - I think they could go for a few days without service, but it wouldn't be pretty even in good times. I also get daily deliveries from suppliers. Without those my best sellers can be gone in a day or two.
If trucks stop moving, or something causes a huge spike in demand, don't count on the local market being full.
The system is very fragile.
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: mesta26 on October 08, 2010, 09:15:52 PM
I understand all of the supply issues, but this was everything from cheese to meat and everything in between.  Some things were just low, others were gone.
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: womule on October 08, 2010, 09:23:52 PM
@daved

That was a great post. If I wasn't on my BB I would give you a +1 in karma.

I think you should get in touch with Jack maybe he will put you on the show. I am very interested in hearing more. Could you learn as much as you can about the food chain system so you can share that with us?

What are all the weaknesses?  What kind of things could happen to disrupt the food supply?
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: daved on October 09, 2010, 06:38:18 AM
@daved

That was a great post. If I wasn't on my BB I would give you a +1 in karma.

I think you should get in touch with Jack maybe he will put you on the show. I am very interested in hearing more. Could you learn as much as you can about the food chain system so you can share that with us?

What are all the weaknesses?  What kind of things could happen to disrupt the food supply?
Thanks for the compliment. I will put some thought into it and see what I can come up with as to weaknesses and possible disruptions beyond what I said in my prior post.
As for going on the show - that's not really for me. However, if Jack wants to pass along anything he sees as useful that I post here, that's great.
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: womule on October 09, 2010, 07:21:07 AM
Saw this on the DrudgeReport this morning thought it fit our discussion here.

I don't think that Americans will have problems getting food, 3rd world nations will have the problems. We will just see higher prices.

http://m.ft.com/cms/s/0/12b06cee-d300-11df-9ae9-00144feabdc0.html (http://m.ft.com/cms/s/0/12b06cee-d300-11df-9ae9-00144feabdc0.html)

Fears of a global food crisis swept the world's commodity markets as prices for staples such as corn, rice and wheat spiralled after the US government warned of "dramatically" lower supplies.An especially hot summer in the US, droughts in countries including Russia and Brazil and heavy rain in Canada and Europe have hit many grain and oilseed crops this year. This has raising concern of a severe squeeze in food supplies and a repeat of the 2007-08 food crisis.
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: Bradbn4 on October 09, 2010, 08:07:07 AM
I think I had seen some of those photo's before - it is common for spot shortages during bad weather times / loss of good water in the local area. Heck, that is one of the reasons to prep right?

A good pantry depth has let me go from buying on need to buying some items on sale.  What a concept - save money because I can wait for a common item to become a price leader at a local supermarket.   I have started to include as pantry items common things as light bulbs, TP, paper towels.

I know Russia has reduced export on some food items - so localized food shortages can be expected.  Crops can fail due to lack of water / or way too much water. Do I expect a nation wide food shortage in the US this year / next year?  Nope - but that does not mean that I should not have a nice supply of food encase there is a local issue.

Brad

Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: daved on October 09, 2010, 10:43:48 AM
@daved
I am very interested in hearing more. Could you learn as much as you can about the food chain system so you can share that with us?

What are all the weaknesses?  What kind of things could happen to disrupt the food supply?

Ok, after giving this some thought I have to say that the one thing that is most vulnerable is the transportation system. Even food bought at a farmers' market is transported at least twice (once from the farm to the market, and once from the market to your home). Everything you get from the grocery store is transported MANY times. 1st from wherever the raw materials come from (which most likely is several suppliers depending on what we are talking about and the number of ingredients) to the manufacturing plant (or bakery, cannery, whatever). Then probably to a large central warehouse, possibly to a freight terminal (or several), maybe to a intermediate warehouse, a smaller warehouse, the store, and finally to your home.

Here's an example: We sells some items made in South Carolina. They travel from there via common carrier through who knows how many terminals on their way to my warehouse in southern Wisconsin. I ship some of them to a larger warehouse in Milwaukee that doesn't even carry these items for the area it services. From there they go to a smaller warehouse in norther Wisconsin who also doesn't sell these items locally. They get loaded on a truck going to upper Michigan to a few small distributors. They put them on their route trucks and take them to the stores in their area. If I am out of these items I may have to track them down at one of our Chicago warehouses introducing another step or two into the process. To top this all off, I only have a truck going to the Milwaukee warehouse once a week, and he only has one going to northern Wisconsin once a week. They only ship to Michigan once every two weeks. So - if one step doesn't happen when it's supposed to it could lead to shortages approaching a month.  Here's where living in a bigger town works to your advantage. Some of those steps can be eliminated.
With each additional stop the items make, the bigger the threat that something could go wrong. Maybe there are riots in a big city many miles away from your nice safe small town. If the food going to your area has to come through that town it may not make it. It doesn't even have to be something as major as that. A work slow down in a warehouse somewhere in the chain can end up delaying deliveries which might mean missed connections and long delays in deliveries. I often get truck drivers complaining about how long it takes to get loaded at certain places. Depending on the number of hours they've been on the road (and if they are running legal) a few hours delay may mean they have to spend the night somewhere instead of driving through and making the delivery on time.

I guess one thing I should point out is that there actually is some redundancy built in to the system. That comes from the DSD (direct store delivery) system. These are the many vendors that service grocery stores on a daily basis. Only some of the products people buy come through the grocery stores' own warehouse system. The rest are delivered by other companies. Some dairy, soda, bread, snacks, etc are all delivered via DSD. (you can sometimes check the shelf tags of the items you buy and see if they say DSD on them) So basically if the Kroeger (or whoever your local grocer is) warehouse burns to the ground, the store will still have access to many items even without their own deliveries. The downside of this is that the DSD items are generally name brand more expensive items.

Bad weather is another cause of problems in the system (besides just causing transportation issues). If there are sales planned for items, it is relatively easy to order extra to cover the additional movement. When a winter storm hits, there isn't time to get more to cover the additional demand. (there is generally a 8 to 14 day lead time on everything I carry in my warehouse - although some specialty holiday items can be several months) When people hear there is bad weather coming they all run to the store. There is usually enough to cover this additional demand, but it may cause some localized shortages.

One thing I have learned over the years though is if you run out of one thing, you run out of EVERYTHING (not literally everything, but all kinds of stuff) Say someone wants to buy regular potato chips, but there are none on the shelf. They will either buy a different brand, or a different type or flavor. That increased demand on the other item causes it to run short and the process repeats itself.

Another thing I've run across is a bad crop causing shortages. Generally this isn't a huge problem. Maybe there are certain things that are only grown in small areas that could be wiped out completely, but everything I've dealt with has been able to be found from another grower in a different area and any shortage is a kind of hiccup in the system rather than a major problem. I can't speak to this too much since I am only responsible for ordering finished goods, not raw materials so I don't know the mechanics behind that.

The last thing I think I have for now is the fact that there is only a short supply anywhere along the chain. It all comes down to money. No one wants to pay for huge amounts of inventory. It ties up dollars that can be spent elsewhere. It ends up wasting shelf life sitting in warehouse racks, and just isn't the way things are done in normal operations. Stores get daily deliveries, warehouses get daily deliveries - that's the way it is, and it works quite well when nothing goes wrong. Ideally for me I want the last case of an item going out the door just as a fresh pallet is going into the pick location. It usually isn't that precise, but that is the ideal situation.
You can't count on the stores or warehouses that supply them to have stock if a SHTF situation. It is entirely up to you to take care of storing food at home.

I think that's all I've got for now. I'll add more if anything else comes to mind.
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: OKGranny on October 09, 2010, 11:53:48 AM
There have been a lot of shortages in our area lately. Even in the local Wally World. Some of them are going on for weeks on certain items. It's really odd but it has made me glad we don't depend on the stores for most items.
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: daved on October 10, 2010, 07:51:36 AM
I've thought about this a bit more and came up with another thought on empty store shelves. That is the stores themselves aren't all the same. There is a sweet spot in terms of what store is most likely to still have stock when others don't. That is the store that is part of a large chain, relatively low volume, but not totally dead.
Let me explain. Some stores are extremely busy and do a lot of volume. They don't have any bigger back rooms than the slow stores. So everything available for purchase is pretty much on the shelves. Other stores do so little volume that their shelves aren't even filled for fear of the items going out of date before they sell (an extreme example of this is the local convenience store with one bottle of mustard on the shelf for the off chance someone actually buys it). In the middle are the stores that are never really busy, but aren't so slow that the shelves aren't filled. These middle stores are likely to still have merchandise that the other two might not. Granted in an extreme SHTF situation this will be short lived as ALL stores will get cleaned out. However, if you just want to get some extra milk and bread before the blizzard that is being forecast hits, they might be the way to go.

About grocery store back rooms: If you've never seen a back room of a grocery store, you might be surprised by what is (or really IS NOT) back there. Most are basically just long hallways along the back of the store with room along one side to put some pallets of things, and just enough room on the dock to unload the trailers of warehouse items that come in. If vendors are allowed to keep back stock it is a very small amount. Now there are some exceptions to this. Some of the large independent stores (not members of big chains) will buy in on things to get a good price and store this in their larger back rooms. This might be another type of store that would have full shelves a bit longer than others.

There are also different policies about having items in a store that seems to vary between the corporate stores and the independent stores. The independent store managers' job seems to be to make the biggest profit possible for their company. They do this through buying in to hold a sale price (and therefor having more stock on hand), placing displays throughout the store (cardboard displays in the aisles, clip racks hanging around, moveable metal racks, etc) which is still more additional stock on hand.
The corporate store managers' job seems more to be "make sure you follow the employee handbook" than it is to make a profit. Many of these stores have the mentality that their customers want to see a perfectly neat and organized store at the expense of addition items on display everywhere. Many also have a no back stock policy in their back rooms. Both of these things lead to less inventory if something bad were to happen. Obviously this isn't universally true, but it is what I have observed over the years.
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: jonny2mad on October 10, 2010, 08:22:37 AM
You have third world countrys where they have hungry people and export food at the same time, during the depression you had farmers destroying food and hungry people in the same country who couldnt afford to buy food .

At the moment the usa and europe can buy food and resources because we are rich or appear to be rich, when we are no longer rich or when the illusion of richness goes, we wont be able to buy food and materials in from abroad .
Look at the amount of oil for example the usa imports , if or when the currency goes even without peak oil would the country be able to get cheap oil and be able to function .

A few years ago in the uk we had a national tanker drivers strike and it was amazing how fast the store shelves emptied, I remember talking to someone who gave a talk about the strike and was involved in disaster planning and london was hours away from being out of food .

During the strike I was late night taxi driving and the police gave us tip offs about when oil supplys would come in so we could keep running they did the same with medical services.

I think you can be sure that empty shelves are coming to America and imagine what sort of effect that would have in a major city, whats the old saying we are only three meals away from anarchy, I'd expect to see rioting like the la riots when people get hungry   
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: daved on October 10, 2010, 09:32:18 AM

Look at the amount of oil for example the usa imports , if or when the currency goes even without peak oil would the country be able to get cheap oil and be able to function .

A few years ago in the uk we had a national tanker drivers strike and it was amazing how fast the store shelves emptied, I remember talking to someone who gave a talk about the strike and was involved in disaster planning and london was hours away from being out of food .

That just reinforces what I said about transportation being the weakest link in the supply chain. It does no good if there is plenty of food sitting in a warehouse somewhere with no means of getting it to the stores.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on October 10, 2010, 08:31:46 PM
it's getting worse: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/12b06cee-d300-11df-9ae9-00144feabdc0.html (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/12b06cee-d300-11df-9ae9-00144feabdc0.html)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Foxfire on October 11, 2010, 12:44:29 AM
The link you posted will only work for registered users.
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: womule on October 11, 2010, 07:22:23 AM
yesterday (sunday)  i went to wally world with the little lady to get a few things.  we usually get a few things even though we are not out, im trying to restore our food storage because it has been depleted from the move.

ground beef, bread, canned food, pastas, and others that i cant remember were cleaned out or picked through and were very low.  thats very unusual for walmart.  i took the opporitunity to talk to my wife about it to get her onboard with my prepping ways.  maybe scare her alittle so she will support my other prepps.

i have a theory about this, but cant articulate it.  basically its tied to rising food prices causing a shortage on the shelves.
Title: Re: empty store shelves coming to america?
Post by: daved on October 11, 2010, 08:15:00 AM

ground beef, bread, canned food, pastas, and others that i cant remember were cleaned out or picked through and were very low.  thats very unusual for walmart. 

Wal-Mart is one of those stores that quite frequently doesn't like having back stock. So any kind of run on things will wipe out the shelves and there won't be anything to refill it. That being said, the things you mentioned (with the exception of bread) were all things that that should go through their warehouse. They are more likely to have back stock on their own items than on DSD items. Also, I don't see a reason for any sales above the usual for canned goods, pasta, etc. (not like a nice weekend making them run out of hot dogs and buns for instance).
The only explanation I can come up with that is a business as usual type thing would be maybe they have a grocery reset coming up. It is normal to allow things to run down so they have less to move.
Hopefully that's all it is, as that is much better than the alternative.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on October 11, 2010, 10:07:37 AM
 Corn has reached it's daily limit up for the second trading day! Almost 10%! The Feds say there's no inflation! That's really hilarious isn't it! We are had and governments LIE daily!

            kiteflyer

        http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE69A21T20101011 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE69A21T20101011)
 

Title: Article: Meat Market Corn Crunch
Post by: littletea on October 12, 2010, 06:04:50 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-10/meat-market-corn-crunch-means-most-expensive-u-s-beef-in-quarter-century.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-10/meat-market-corn-crunch-means-most-expensive-u-s-beef-in-quarter-century.html)
Title: Re: Article: Meat Market Corn Crunch
Post by: chris on October 12, 2010, 01:13:10 PM
Great news for grass fed beef producers.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Mr. Bill on October 13, 2010, 11:06:21 AM
MODERATOR'S NOTE: Dollar devaluation posts split off into a separate thread:

Dollar devaluation rumors (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=21730.0)

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: OKGranny on October 13, 2010, 12:06:56 PM
Not to be difficult but I don't see that the possible devaluation of the dollar has anything to do with current food shortages on local grocery shelves. I'm a lot more interested in why my stores are completely out of certain items for weeks (literally) at a time lately. Surely it doesn't take weeks to resupply from a warehouse.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: daved on October 13, 2010, 12:48:14 PM
Surely it doesn't take weeks to resupply from a warehouse.
Actually depending on the item, it could.
I have items that are on a 14 day lead time, there are minimum orders, and some of my routes only load twice a week. If I mis-order something, or there is a big run on it for whatever reason, we may end up being out of stock in the warehouse. I may not even be able to reorder until other items from that supplier run low or there will end up being date issues on the items that didn't run out. When I do order it takes 14 days to get it, and maybe another day or two until it gets on the right truck. Not that this happens often, or should happen at all, but from time to time it does. The items impacted are usually obscure things though, so it's not like there will be 40' of bare shelves at a store.
All this is nothing new though. This kind of thing has always happened. If you are seeing a lot of shortages lately (especially on main stream items) this isn't the cause. I don't have any insight on what could be causing new shortages on any kind of regular basis.

I do find it interesting that people always think there are warehouses full of whatever they may want and it will all be available to be delivered first thing in the morning. I have items that I literally order one case at a time they move so slowly. On the rare occasion that someone wants a second case, they end up having to wait for it. Yes we want to serve the customer, but it doesn't make sense to throw away stale product 51 weeks out of the year so on the 52nd week we can sell an extra case. (OKGranny - none of this was directed at you - just my thoughts in general about the perception of what happens being the scenes in the food business).
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LdMorgan on October 16, 2010, 11:33:31 PM
As the economy gets steadily worse and fuel prices rise and rise again, I think we will see a local-production food industry appear, expressed as a myriad of small "one day only" farmer's markets popping up at 5 to 10 mile intervals in suburban and rural areas.

Traditionally, the weekend farmer's market has been located in large established flea markets, but I think that's going to change. People are just not going to be inclined to drive 20 miles one way to hit a mega-flea market. And they are going to want to be able to shop more than only two days a week.

Two small farmer's markets have popped up in my area recently. They offer fresh and home-prepared foods, nursery plants, small livestock, and a few home craft items like handmade soaps. But no "Little Taiwan" stuff.

One is open on Wednesdays, one on Fri & Sat.

Both of them set up on lots about 125' feet square, including parking. Both have less than twenty vendors, and their prices are usually a little better than retail.

This is kind of a long lead-in, but what I'm getting to is that we may soon see the development of networks of ultra-small farmer's markets, located and scheduled to allow a person to shop daily without doing much traveling.

That is common in many third-world countries. Farmers can bring their produce to market every day of the week, and buyers can shop every day of the week in a series of rotating marketplaces--always located within a reasonable distance of a given village.

Shelf-shortages in box stores that routinely bring foods in from 1500 miles away may not matter as much as many people fear (here in the US, anyway) because local production may be able to pick up the slack, and do so at advantageous prices.
Title: Global food crisis forecast as prices reach record highs
Post by: Randy on October 25, 2010, 09:02:29 PM
Anyone who listens to the podcasts should know this is is occurring, but it's just another confirmation that we should be prepping.

"World wheat and maize prices have risen 57%, rice 45% and sugar 55% over the last six months and soybeans are at their highest price for 16 months." & "food riots in Mozambique that killed 12 people last month"



http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/oct/25/impending-global-food-crisis (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/oct/25/impending-global-food-crisis)
Title: Re: Global food crisis forecast as prices reach record highs
Post by: hanzel on October 26, 2010, 07:31:17 AM
Anyone who listens to the podcasts should know this is is occurring, but it's just another confirmation that we should be prepping.

"World wheat and maize prices have risen 57%, rice 45% and sugar 55% over the last six months and soybeans are at their highest price for 16 months." & "food riots in Mozambique that killed 12 people last month"



http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/oct/25/impending-global-food-crisis (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/oct/25/impending-global-food-crisis)

Are the "prices" really increasing or are the global currencies falling ? 

Looking at gasoline prices this morning in pre 1964 coins, we are currently looking at about 17 cents a gallon.

AAA unleaded national average = $2.81,  Coinflation pre 1964 dime = $1.71

$2.81 / $1.71 = .164 or ..  .17 a gallon

First I was told, $1 for a mercury dime was to much, then I was told $1.25 was to high, and I was really ripped off when I bought them for $1.50.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on October 26, 2010, 02:56:55 PM
Here is a link to a pdf file you can download of "The Food Bubble", an article in Harper's July issue: http://frederickkaufman.typepad.com/files/the-food-bubble-pdf.pdf (http://frederickkaufman.typepad.com/files/the-food-bubble-pdf.pdf)
This is the author's website: http://frederickkaufman.typepad.com/ (http://frederickkaufman.typepad.com/)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LvsChant on October 26, 2010, 04:33:01 PM
I'm not so concerned with actual shortages on our grocery store shelves unless our government decides to "help" the poor consumers by instituting price controls...

Prices are up markedly from just 1-2 years ago, from what I can see.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: OKGranny on October 26, 2010, 04:45:40 PM
LvsChant there is no inflation or rising prices. The government done said so. Just because the prices on goods I bought last year and the year before are considerably less than the ones I have bought this year that doesn't mean things are higher. I have family on social security and they didn't get a raise at the beginning of last year and they won't get one this year because there is no cost of living increase according to the government. Some of my really elderly relatives are finding themselves between a rock and a hard spot because of this since they were just making enough to squeeze by. We're helping but they don't like as it hurts their pride to have to accept help from family.
Title: Re: Global food crisis forecast as prices reach record highs
Post by: LdMorgan on October 26, 2010, 05:17:31 PM
Are the "prices" really increasing or are the global currencies falling ? 

Looking at gasoline prices this morning in pre 1964 coins, we are currently looking at about 17 cents a gallon.

AAA unleaded national average = $2.81,  Coinflation pre 1964 dime = $1.71

$2.81 / $1.71 = .164 or ..  .17 a gallon

First I was told, $1 for a mercury dime was to much, then I was told $1.25 was to high, and I was really ripped off when I bought them for $1.50.

Uh, lemme take a whack at the math here.

OK--you can buy a pre-1964 dime for $1.71. And you can buy a gallon of gas for $2.81.

So you can buy 1.643 pre-1964 dimes for $2.81.

So if you pay for today's gas in today's pre-1964 dimes, you're paying $2.81 per gallon of gas, in the form of 1.643 pre-1964 dimes.

Those pre-1964 dimes may have a face value of $0.10 each, but you're not paying $0.1643 for a gallon of today's gas, because you can't do it with an ordinary dime.

You can only do it with a piece of silver bullion that happens to be the exact size, shape, and fineness of a pre-1964 dime (because that's what it started out as.)

Back in 1964, the minimum wage was $1.25/hr, and the price of gas was about $0.16/gallon. (And even lower during price wars. Anybody remember price wars?)

So at $0.02083/minute, you had to work 7.68 minutes to buy a gallon of gas.

Now the minimum wage is $7.25 an hour and the price of gas is $2.81 a gallon.

So at $0.12083 cents per minute, you have to work 25.255 minutes to buy a gallon of gas.

So the price of gas has slightly more than tripled since 1964--when calculated in terms of how long it takes you to earn a gallon of gas while working at minimum wage.

Work was $0.0208 per minute. Now it's $0.12083/minute. It's now 5.80 times as "profitable".

Gas was $0.16/gallon. Now it's $2.81/gallon. It's now 17.562 times as expensive.

So the "face value" of dollars (per minute worked) has gone up but those minutes (and dollars) will now buy 1/3 as much as before.

That is global currencies falling and prices rising, both--at one and the same time.

Look at the same situation from another perspective: In terms of buying power. If you are working for minimum wage, you are being paid $0.41/hour in 1964 dollars.

Is it any wonder why a single breadwinner can no longer support a family? Or that you can carry $200.00 worth of food out of a grocery store in a single armload?

The standard of living has dropped to a third of what it was 50 years ago (roughly). Only the advent better & cheaper technology has somewhat masked the effect.

Somewhat.













Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on October 26, 2010, 07:20:48 PM
Okgranny: I detect a little tongue-in-cheek. Fact is as I know it, the gov took food out of the inflation statistics as it would be injurious to the careers of politicians.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: NWBowhunter on October 26, 2010, 07:49:43 PM
Daved

I have to wonder what precentage of your shipments roll on corporate trucks vice independent trucking firms. It seems to me that the weekest link is the independent trucking companies being caught in the economic squeeze where they shut down due to the costs of fuel exceeding the ability to break even.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: OKGranny on October 26, 2010, 08:44:27 PM
Okgranny: I detect a little tongue-in-cheek. Fact is as I know it, the gov took food out of the inflation statistics as it would be injurious to the careers of politicians.

Tongue-in-cheek? Me?  :rofl: I'm sure they took food out of the inflation statistics, just like they invent new math to keep the unemployment level looking like it's around 10%. Strangely enough as a small business owner if I had gotten that 'creative' with my math when applied to my taxes I'd be in jail. I think I'll just stick with what I paid in previous years as opposed to what I pay now and decide for myself if things are more expensive.
Title: Re: Sticker shock at the supermarket: Food prices poised to rise
Post by: jasperg357 on October 26, 2010, 08:55:09 PM
Why use corn and soybean for fuel when Kudzu is prolific and you can barely get rid of it when you need to? Kudzu is being used in other countries for biofuel.

If kudzu can be used as biofuel then we are sitting on a fortune here in Georgia. ;D
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: jasperg357 on October 26, 2010, 09:13:07 PM
Daved

I have to wonder what precentage of your shipments roll on corporate trucks vice independent trucking firms. It seems to me that the weekest link is the independent trucking companies being caught in the economic squeeze where they shut down due to the costs of fuel exceeding the ability to break even.

I drive a truck for a living, just about all freight is initially handled by independent trucking companies. We will  pick the freight up and take it to a corporate warehouse were it is broken down and placed on there trucks for shipment to there stores. Wal-Mart might be the only exception to this even thou we deliver allot of freight to there warehouses to. During the last rise in fuel prices allot of the smaller trucking companies went out of business plus the larger companies were cutting driver pay and laying of employees. If the price of fuel goes up again and stays there then the only out come I see will be a increase in every thing in the stores. Right now most freight is transported by trucks  and the trucking companies will either have to pass the fuel cost on to there customers are shut there doors, and then the customers will pass it on to the consumer.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: daved on October 27, 2010, 04:07:15 AM
Daved

I have to wonder what precentage of your shipments roll on corporate trucks vice independent trucking firms. It seems to me that the weekest link is the independent trucking companies being caught in the economic squeeze where they shut down due to the costs of fuel exceeding the ability to break even.
We haven't had our own company trucks for years. Everything comes through independent firms. Actually that isn't entirely true. We do have some box trucks that we use for moving things between some regional warehouses, but the percentage of items that is transported this way is very small. As for the independent companies being the weak link, I agree however there are many options for who moves freight. So if some shut down due to economic troubles, there are plenty more to take their place. If that happens though prices would go up for sure. I can guarantee that if it costs more to get goods to market the food companies aren't just going to absorb that loss. It will most definitely be reflected at the register.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LdMorgan on October 27, 2010, 12:55:02 PM
http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3791?ppref=CRX175ED1010A (http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3791?ppref=CRX175ED1010A)

Food price increases at a glance...
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on October 28, 2010, 11:20:40 AM

 When the USA government officially denies it (inflation) then you can bet it's there! It's all a snow job and the public is aware and fed up with this lying government!

           kiteflyer


http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3791?ppref=CRX175ED1010A (http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3791?ppref=CRX175ED1010A)

Food price increases at a glance...
Title: 5 dangers to global food production that could send food prices soaring.
Post by: NWBowhunter on October 30, 2010, 08:41:00 PM
Good article on the precarious state of the worlds food supply.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/5-dangers-to-global-crops-that-could-dramatically-reduce-the-world-food-supply (http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/5-dangers-to-global-crops-that-could-dramatically-reduce-the-world-food-supply)

Wheat rust
Mad Soy Disease
Verticillium Wilt
Late Blight

Especially GMO
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: NWBowhunter on November 02, 2010, 07:59:19 PM
Coming sugar shortages http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43cfbb7a-e6b2-11df-99b3-00144feab49a.html (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43cfbb7a-e6b2-11df-99b3-00144feab49a.html)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: inthego on November 02, 2010, 09:31:28 PM
Coming sugar shortages http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43cfbb7a-e6b2-11df-99b3-00144feab49a.html (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43cfbb7a-e6b2-11df-99b3-00144feab49a.html)
you got to be a member of that site to see this...
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: NWBowhunter on November 02, 2010, 09:47:33 PM
You can get there from drudgereport.com link is in the right hand column.
Quote
The price of sugar has jumped to a 30-year high as the Brazilian harvest has tailed off sharply, hardening expectations of a shortage.

Traders believe that prices could soar over the coming months as the market faces a supply shortfall driven by smaller-than-forecast crops in important growing countries from Brazil to Russia and western Europe.


That has pushed prices up sharply, with raw sugar futures in New York soaring 135 per cent from a low of 13 cents in May.

On Tuesday ICE March sugar rose 4 per cent to a peak of 30.64 cents a pound, surpassing the level reached in February and rising to their highest point since 1980, when prices jumped to nearly 45 cents.

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on November 06, 2010, 12:21:34 PM

 FYI,
   
    With the dollar going down with the peak oil crisis,climate change and the coming Inflation on all commodities, well prep the best you can now!
          kiteflyer

   Peak Phosphate’ Spells End of Cheap Food 

       http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2010/10/Pages/Peak-Phosphate-Spells-End-of-Cheap-Food.aspx (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2010/10/Pages/Peak-Phosphate-Spells-End-of-Cheap-Food.aspx)     
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: BatonRouge Bill on November 06, 2010, 08:16:28 PM
Another scary article, wheat rust.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40043530/ns/world_news-americas (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40043530/ns/world_news-americas)

I may get a few sacks of winter wheat this week...I guess I'll be getting buckets also!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CanOpener on November 09, 2010, 03:08:20 PM
  ".In early 2008, Saudia Arabia announced that, after being self-sufficient in wheat for over 20 years, the non-replenishable aquifer it had been pumping for
irrigation was largely depleted.  In response, officials said they would reduce their wheat harvest by one-eighth each year until production would cease
entirely in 2016.  The Saudis would then import virtually all the grain consumed by their Canada-sized population of nearly 30 million people."
    http://www.earth-policy.org (http://www.earth-policy.org)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on November 09, 2010, 03:27:37 PM
  ".In early 2008, Saudia Arabia announced that, after being self-sufficient in wheat for over 20 years, the non-replenishable aquifer it had been pumping for
irrigation was largely depleted.  In response, officials said they would reduce their wheat harvest by one-eighth each year until production would cease
entirely in 2016.  The Saudis would then import virtually all the grain consumed by their Canada-sized population of nearly 30 million people."
    http://www.earth-policy.org (http://www.earth-policy.org)
China's not far behind in their northwest provinces.  They've been experiencing their own dust bowl for the last several years and it's only going to be getting worse as more aquafers dry up.  ...and that's a few more zeros in their population than Saudi Arabia.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on November 09, 2010, 03:38:41 PM
 ".In early 2008, Saudia Arabia announced that, after being self-sufficient in wheat for over 20 years, the non-replenishable aquifer it had been pumping for
irrigation was largely depleted.  In response, officials said they would reduce their wheat harvest by one-eighth each year until production would cease
entirely in 2016.  The Saudis would then import virtually all the grain consumed by their Canada-sized population of nearly 30 million people."
    http://www.earth-policy.org (http://www.earth-policy.org)

new "oil for food"?   :P
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on November 09, 2010, 06:45:25 PM
Higher food prices? Can you say 'riot'?

UN calls special meeting to address food shortages amid predictions of riots

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/sep/05/commodities-food-drink-industry (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/sep/05/commodities-food-drink-industry)


Why do people gather in mobs and riot when food shortages occur and prices go up? Does that somehow appease their hunger? I don't get it. Does the government have some sort of big pantry that people expect to depend upon when times get hard? I just don't get it.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: NWBowhunter on November 10, 2010, 06:23:22 AM
Food shortage and rioting go hand in hand with the state controlling the means of production and distribution.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CanOpener on November 10, 2010, 02:11:39 PM
China's not far behind in their northwest provinces.  They've been experiencing their own dust bowl for the last several years and it's only going to be getting worse as more aquafers dry up.  ...and that's a few more zeros in their population than Saudi Arabia.
    "The heavy losses of territory to advancing deserts in China and Nigeria, the most populous countries in Asia and Africa respectively,
illustrate the trends for scores of other countries.  China is not only losing productive land to deserts, but is doing so at an accelerating
rate.  From 1950 to 1975 China lost an average of 600 square miles of land (1,560 square kilometers) to desert each year.
      By 2000, nearly 1400 square miles were going to desert annually."

"Nigeria is losing 1, 355 square miles of rangeland and cropland to desertification each year"
                                                                                                                                            Nov. 16, 2006
                                                                                                                                            Earth Policy Institute
http://www.earth-policy.org/. (http://www.earth-policy.org/.)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CanOpener on November 10, 2010, 02:17:20 PM
Higher food prices? Can you say 'riot'?
UN calls special meeting to address food shortages amid predictions of riots
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/sep/05/commodities-food-drink-industry (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/sep/05/commodities-food-drink-industry)
 Does the government have some sort of big pantry that people expect to depend upon when times get hard?
    No, the government does not have a big pantry.   Back in the 70's and 80's, the USDA used to have warehouses
                  full of stockpiled, surpluses like butter, powdered milk, etc.  etc.  In the 90's, their major warehouse burned down
               and was never replaced.
Last years checking of their website for stored food surpluses showed zeros in ALL categories.

               
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chrisdfw on November 10, 2010, 02:25:08 PM
The upside of food shortages relative to other goods is that american purchasing power should actually increase.

We still produce a lot of the food in the world in terms of calories. We are a net importer because we export cheap
wheat and corn, and import expensive items like beef, french wine, caviar, etc etc.

If wheat and grains become relatively more scarce we should be able to sell it for more and bring more money back
to the US. That is of course if we don't give it all away to the starving people. We are an import economy because we
give away so much in foriegn aid and get little in return.

Just my humble opinion. Buy land where you can grow food and you might prosper as food become valuable again. It
has been too abundant for too long for small farmers to make it, but the times might be changing.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on November 11, 2010, 08:10:29 PM
We've been told by people who volunteer at local food pantries that a good number of the people who come in for food drive away in late model vehicles, are working at good jobs and are taking advantage of the free food.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chrisdfw on November 11, 2010, 09:13:46 PM
We've been told by people who volunteer at local food pantries that a good number of the people who come in for food drive away in late model vehicles, are working at good jobs and are taking advantage of the free food.
Don't judge. I went from making 150k plus a year to under 20k. I didn't change cars just because I was broke all of a sudden. (not that I was using food pantries, but
I could have probably used it) Just because of what people drive doesn't mean they haven't fallen on hard times. Its hard to say. Maybe they have good jobs, but do they have huge
debts and their spouse lost their job? 
People are stuck in big houses and expensive cars, sometimes because they owe more than they are worth and they are too proud to default. Afraid for their credit. I've
seen people throw good money after bad on cars that they were upside down on and would not be able to afford long term after their job losses or injuries. They should have
walked away and got a beater, instead they paid their car notes and got food from the food bank. Some people criticize those that walk away from their obligations, others criticize
those that get food from the pantry, they can't win.
You can be making 80,000 to 90,000 a year and have hard times if you were making 200,000 before, because your obligations were taken on at the 200,000 level. I know it, i;ve seen it,
I was not a financial genius, just lucky that I left my job at a time when I didn't have any car notes. Others in my situation had car notes and ended up in much worse condition from having
been upside down on two cars with 1000 a month in payments. On top of students loans and house payments that were 2000-3000 a month.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on November 11, 2010, 09:47:02 PM
Chris: I was expecting a response like yours from my posting and I think you did an excellent job of eloquently depicting the situation. I have a friend in a similar situation, lots of toys plus house and wheels that were acquired when times were good but now both in the marriage have major job income loss and what they have to sell has no buyers. These are difficult times, and very perverse at that when someone in a late model SUV in a $250,000 home drives up to a food bank in the same peril as a homeless bloke.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: OKGranny on November 11, 2010, 09:52:09 PM
Exactly, you don't know what anyone's personal circumstance is nor why they are there getting the food to begin with. The problem is that $250,000 house may be worth 1/3 to 1/2 less than that now and they have no way to unload it because the days of lots of people being able to acquire McMansions is pretty well over. I've got a friend that went to her lawyers office a few weeks ago so she put of a pair of nice slacks and a blouse instead of her usualy jeans and t shirt. When she left she went to visit her aunt in a very poor community and the neighbor kids threw dirt and rocks at her and called her a rich *itch.
Title: Short Falls in Key Food Grains Possible Says USDA?
Post by: kiteflyer on November 12, 2010, 05:56:26 PM

 Heads up on possible grain shortages coming,you can't eat gold or silver.Mods this was posted here in general news as a warning to all members to gather their preps now.

                 kiteflyer

                 http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8121809 (http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8121809)

        Abdolreza Abbassian, senior grains economist at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation in Rome, said the USDA report was "alarming".

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LdMorgan on November 15, 2010, 02:46:53 PM
I go to a local auction regularly.

They have a guy that comes in every two weeks with a truckload of food. It ranges from mint candies to orange juice, to pasta sauce by the gallon to oatmeal, canned veggies, Slim Jims, whatever.  It's not expired foods or denteds. It's all decent stuff (except the Red Bull and the diet drinks, I mean).

They might pull out four regular cans of corn, and call that unit a "deal". They'd auction it off, and the high bidder got first choice--he could buy as much as he wanted. The kicker was that the food dude would say--"Too much!" and lower the bid price by as much as half. Then the high bidder would say how many "deals" he wanted, get them, and everybody else would follow suit at the same lowered price.

Four cans might bid $1.75, and he'd cut it down to $1.00.

It' a great strategy: he sells everything, every time.

Six months ago, people were buying for the week. If a "deal" was four cans of corn, they'd buy one or two "deals".

Last week he came in, and it was the usual routine--except that almost everything got bought up by individuals in multi-case lots.

One deal was two bottles of OJ. The lady that won the bid bought at the usual knocked-down price--but she took
seven cases--84 "deals".  The backup bidder took four cases. By the time it came around to me, I could only get two cases.

I'd wanted four, and I thought I was buying big-time for stocking up!

It was a sea-change in the food-auction routine. A LOT of people had suddenly started buying in large volume.

People are aware food prices are rising. They are also aware the dollar is circling around in the toilet bowl.

Next time I'll go back with more money, and be the high bidder. That way I can buy at the same knocked-down price as everyone else, but I'll get the quantity I want.

(Now--where did I put those stacks of hundreds?....)

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: eph2 on November 15, 2010, 04:28:12 PM
Looks like those auctions are only in a few states  :-[
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Polar Bear on November 15, 2010, 06:39:15 PM
This article states an average of 15% of the U.S. population short of food before this inflation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11761970 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11761970)

(Look at the chart over on the left to see what group is really getting slammed right now.)

I wonder how high it will go.  I have my winter garden going, and I'm doubling the size come spring, but I also feel lucky that I can give to the food bank as well.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chrisdfw on November 15, 2010, 10:25:47 PM
Chris: I was expecting a response like yours from my posting and I think you did an excellent job of eloquently depicting the situation. I have a friend in a similar situation, lots of toys plus house and wheels that were acquired when times were good but now both in the marriage have major job income loss and what they have to sell has no buyers. These are difficult times, and very perverse at that when someone in a late model SUV in a $250,000 home drives up to a food bank in the same peril as a homeless bloke.

I wasn't criticizing, just pointing out what from the outward appearances may not be obvious. I probably wouldn't have thought of it but for the experiences I have observed. Big time income cuts and people stuck in cars and trucks and boats and aircraft and homes they are upside down in. The real lesson is not to owe large debts that require your whole income to pay. I plan to make 7-8 times more next year, but increase my expenses less than twice. (yes its a realistic plan and will most definitely happen, at worst I make 5-6 times more than this year)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on November 16, 2010, 02:27:09 PM
I wasn't criticizing, just pointing out what from the outward appearances may not be obvious. I probably wouldn't have thought of it but for the experiences I have observed. Big time income cuts and people stuck in cars and trucks and boats and aircraft and homes they are upside down in. The real lesson is not to owe large debts that require your whole income to pay. I plan to make 7-8 times more next year, but increase my expenses less than twice. (yes its a realistic plan and will most definitely happen, at worst I make 5-6 times more than this year)

I did not take it as criticism, but as you said, pointed it out, of which situation I am aware of but in spite of, I do not give to food pantries but rather to The Salvation Army. You have my gusto for your goals!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chrisdfw on November 17, 2010, 12:02:52 AM
I did not take it as criticism, but as you said, pointed it out, of which situation I am aware of but in spite of, I do not give to food pantries but rather to The Salvation Army. You have my gusto for your goals!
Its possible because I took such a large pay cut to start my business. Its going now to the point where I will rejoin the workforce as an employee and have the business.
Basically, I make around 24k now with my business and am gonna get back in the job market and should make more than I made before. The job market is hot in my line of work. And my business should only grow.
But I learned my lesson by watching my friends and coworkers. I can live on 50 or less, I won't be caught going to the food pantry in a leased vehicle with 800 a month payments (yes it happens as you pointed out)
The important thing is that most of those people are not gaming the system, they just planned poorly and made poor financial choices (who hasn't)

Back to the prepping for food, I don't think people realize how cheap and easy it is to store a lot of cheap staples. Or how hard and expensive to store large amounts of meat. Sadly, that is where I am having trouble because of lack of money this year. I would like to be able to store more meat. (I hate spam) I might buy a case of mountain house ground beef next month, but that is expensive and is hard to afford a decent supply.

Any advice on meat anyone? On the cheap?
Title: China's Food Prices Spike, Officials Fear Unrest. . .
Post by: The Professor on November 17, 2010, 09:55:34 AM
Double-digit surge in food prices. . .

Inflation running amok. . .

Chinese government now offering food subsidies to families. . .

Officials fear unrest. . .

May you live in interesting times.

Full story can be found here: LINK (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_china_inflation;_ylt=Anjwwa060AVn3YwZQGVyykyGOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTJsYnZ1MXMwBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAxMTE3L2FzX2NoaW5hX2luZmxhdGlvbgRjcG9zAzQEcG9zAzQEc2VjA3luX3RvcF9zdG9yaWVzBHNsawNjaGluYXRvc3Vic2k-)

MODERATORS: Sorry, I couldn't figure out how to modify the link so it was shorter.

The Professor

Fixed link length. bartsdad
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on November 17, 2010, 02:08:20 PM
Back to the prepping for food, I don't think people realize how cheap and easy it is to store a lot of cheap staples. Or how hard and expensive to store large amounts of meat. Sadly, that is where I am having trouble because of lack of money this year. I would like to be able to store more meat. (I hate spam) I might buy a case of mountain house ground beef next month, but that is expensive and is hard to afford a decent supply.

Any advice on meat anyone? On the cheap?

I'll listen in; the only way I know of is to buy on sale, in bulk, and freeze, can, or dehydrate it. Very lean hamburger can be cooked and dehydrated (in the oven). Spam is not cheap, nor or most canned meat you buy in the store. Some people think they get a good deal at Sam's club. Making meat stock is a great way to stretch meat.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on November 17, 2010, 05:37:53 PM
Same old, same old: Fears of new food crisis as prices soar

By Javier Blas, Commodities Editor

Published: November 17 2010 09:41 | Last updated: November 17 2010 18:18

 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/78b06d1a-f226-11df-9118-00144feab49a.html (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/78b06d1a-f226-11df-9118-00144feab49a.html)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on December 01, 2010, 11:22:40 AM
I just watched a show last week on a local public television channel that showed the transition of Cuba, from an oil dependent agricultural base to an organic, small scale based agriculture after the Soviets pulled the plug on funding in the early 1990s.  Pretty remarkable program.  The average Cuban lost 20 pounds in one year, but now every vacant city lot is a community garden, they use 1/6th the fertilizer and pesticides and 1/10th the energy inputs as before.  They developed a major oxen breeding network, training hundreds of farmers to get off their tractors and use beasts of burden.

Someday that will come here.  Best be one step ahead than one step behind!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LdMorgan on December 02, 2010, 06:46:38 AM
Douhn heah in Floridah I just paid $5.29 for a gallon of milk, and and friend told me that T-bone steak is now up over $10.00 a pound.

I don't buy T-bone because I've considered it too expensive for decades.

I ran across a source that indicated food prices at Wal-Mart have been rising for the last three months at the rate of 5.13%.

Famine starts as a mild inconvenience that escalates.

It's happening right now, and it's getting worse fast, and it's going to get even worse even faster.

Stock up while you still can. Don't wait until you can't afford to stock up and it doesn't matter anyway because the shelves are empty.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: homeshow on December 02, 2010, 03:35:17 PM

I ran across a source that indicated food prices at Wal-Mart have been rising for the last three months at the rate of 5.13%.



mind sharing that source?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: OldManSchmidt on December 02, 2010, 06:05:01 PM
Do yourselves a favor with the meat.  If you don't raise your own, find a cattle rancher and get on good terms with him.  Then find an Amish or Mennonite butcher in the same area.  Next step, buy the beef on the hoof and have it butchered.  My stepmother's Dad raises beef cattle for "fun money" in his retirement.  This is how we do it.  Sometimes, you can even find a butcher that will butcher on percentage or halves.  For those who have never done it, a whole cow translates into a lot of meat.  Having it butchered on halves isn't such a bad idea unless you have a whole lot of freezer space or a way to dehydrate or can in bulk and then room to store it all.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LvsChant on December 02, 2010, 06:22:51 PM
I got an email from Ready Made Resources today regarding their freeze dried food in #10 cans. The supplier cannot keep up with demand and they are limiting the amount RMR can order each week.

I'm betting backorders on stuff is in their future...
Title: Re: Warning of food price hike crisis; BBC
Post by: SaltyHobbit on December 02, 2010, 06:32:26 PM
Breed Less, Spend Less, Save more.
+++++++++++++++++to many to list
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sweethearts Mom on December 02, 2010, 08:30:05 PM
I did not read this whole thread but from the title I think this will apply. I went to the local wally world and bought my fav coffee (believe it or not the wally world brand) and when I got it home I noticed this. (no the price didn't go down)

Purchased 6 months ago
(http://i99.photobucket.com/albums/l309/sweethearts-mom/SAM_0368.jpg)

Purchased this week
(http://i99.photobucket.com/albums/l309/sweethearts-mom/SAM_0369.jpg)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on December 02, 2010, 09:23:35 PM
Sweetie: did the can size change? If not, 10 points for observation. And expect more of that kind of scamming to come.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sweethearts Mom on December 02, 2010, 09:36:25 PM
The can size changed a small bit. Shorter it seems. I will measure that but I agree. Soon we will need a magnifying glass at the store
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: BatonRouge Bill on December 02, 2010, 10:19:32 PM
Our local Community Coffee on the label "Still a full pound!" which gets people to compare. The Waltons are really tough retailers and if Community wasn't so extremely popular in our area I'm sure the Waltons would have had them taken off the shelves for that! Everything that was a 16 oz lb dropped to 12 oz..prepackaged crawfish, shrimp, hotdogs... 5 lb boxes of smoke sausage went to 4 lbs now 3.5 lbs  >:(
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: daved on December 03, 2010, 04:30:35 PM
The items in my warehouse get smaller all the time. We have several weight outs a year. Other times the size will go up slightly but the price will go up even more. Still other times the weight stays the same and the price goes up. It all depends on the price point. It is hard to raise a 99 cent item to $1.xx so those almost always get smaller. Other price points aren't such a big deal so sizes and prices can be changed rather easily.

Here's a hint to see if something you normally buy is going to change price or weight. If it is normally pre-priced from the manufacturer and all of a sudden doesn't come with a price anymore it is probably about to get more expensive. We routinely get no price items in prior to a price change so we aren't selling something for x when it is marked y.

On the upside there are times we get a notification of a price DECREASE. I've been managing warehouses for better than 10 years now. I think I've seen 2 or 3 items actually get cheaper. Increases and weight outs on the other hand happen on a very regular basis.
Title: Re: China's Food Prices Spike, Officials Fear Unrest. . .
Post by: LdMorgan on December 04, 2010, 02:44:52 AM
In some parts of China. the Chinese government is now regulating the price of the four most common food products, and is contemplating increasing both the number of products regulated and the area those regulations apply to.

Sorry--don't have the link handy, or any more info. That's just a factoid I ran across while researching the food shortage situation.

Which, by the way, is much worse in the international context than just with regard to America.

Internationally, the food problem can almost be described as a game of musical chairs, with somebody being foodless all the time, and everybody in line to be foodless soon.

I actually read an article about an incident of cannibalism in the Urals this month. Several years ago, I read one about a group of Chinese merchants that were arrested for openly selling human flesh in the marketplace during one of their local famines.

It doesn't take much in the way of starvation for Long Pig to become the other other white meat.
Title: Re: China's Food Prices Spike, Officials Fear Unrest. . .
Post by: Herbalpagan on December 04, 2010, 05:06:28 AM
Wow! guess they should have kept more people working on the farms.
Title: UN Warning: Global food crisis imminent !
Post by: kiteflyer on December 04, 2010, 01:46:55 PM

 With the dollar falling look for big surprises at the food table very soon!

      kiteflyer

UN Warning: Global food crisis imminent

 http://richardbrenneman.wordpress.com/2010/11/17/un-warning-global-food-crisis-imminent/ (http://richardbrenneman.wordpress.com/2010/11/17/un-warning-global-food-crisis-imminent/)

 The UN today warned that food prices could rise by 10%-20% next year after poor harvests and an expected rundown of global reserves. More than 70 African and Asian countries will be the worst hit, said the Food and Agricultural Organization in its monthly report.


 Wheat crop struggling as market jumps

  http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/wheat-crop-struggling-as-market-jumps_2-ar12592 (http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/wheat-crop-struggling-as-market-jumps_2-ar12592)

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LdMorgan on December 04, 2010, 11:18:03 PM

mind sharing that source?

Hey, Homeshow!

I looked for that article, and couldn't find it again. It was either from the National Inflation Association or one of the economic sources I get in my email. Maybe one by Justin Brill.

The fact that Wal-Mart is increasing prices that much each month just stuck with me as the perfect example of the coming hyperinflation. 60-odd % per year, and soon to be rising faster, I think.

If I run across it again, I'll post it. It was part of a pretty good read.


Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sweethearts Mom on December 05, 2010, 04:59:06 AM
Ok I am going to start a log of some main items that I shop for. Each time I go to the store I am going to log the package size and price along with the date.

I think I see a spread sheet project! ::)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: NWBowhunter on December 05, 2010, 05:33:55 AM
I see a full fledge data base app that can track the cost of a shopping basket. Because you need to track the sizes and prices.

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sweethearts Mom on December 05, 2010, 06:45:42 AM
Probably will only track some main items that are used a lot. This could be kind of fun.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on December 05, 2010, 05:40:11 PM
Hey, Homeshow!

I looked for that article, and couldn't find it again. It was either from the National Inflation Association or one of the economic sources I get in my email. Maybe one by Justin Brill.

The fact that Wal-Mart is increasing prices that much each month just stuck with me as the perfect example of the coming hyperinflation. 60-odd % per year, and soon to be rising faster, I think.

If I run across it again, I'll post it. It was part of a pretty good read.

Wal-Mart night be showing a fake increase due to a policy earlier this year of selling certain items below cost as loss leaders but found that shoppers came in for those and did the rest of their shopping elsewhere. They have since raised prices on the loss leaders. I find their prices to be higher than the Woodman's warehouse food prices.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Nicodemus on December 05, 2010, 05:47:57 PM
I started noticing the size of tuna cans decreasing about 2 years ago. I still have a stack of 6oz tuna cans next to which are a stack of a few of the newer 5oz cans. There are still places to get the 6oz cans and that's where I buy tuna, but I've come to find that it is not at any of the local grocery stores.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: PAGUY on December 05, 2010, 05:55:00 PM
I did not read this whole thread but from the title I think this will apply. I went to the local wally world and bought my fav coffee (believe it or not the wally world brand) and when I got it home I noticed this. (no the price didn't go down)

Purchased 6 months ago
(http://i99.photobucket.com/albums/l309/sweethearts-mom/SAM_0368.jpg)

Purchased this week
(http://i99.photobucgetket.com/albums/l309/sweethearts-mom/SAM_0369.jpg)
Now this tells you how much I have stocked up on it.  I have not realized the change until today when I read this thread and went to stock up for the wife.  Trying to get a few more pennies from us I guess.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: hillclimber on December 05, 2010, 06:18:32 PM
Went on a shopping trip just today. It was at a BJs. The prices have gone up some, but not as much as at the local grocery stores and WalMart.
If it wasn't for BJs, my hunting ethics would be right out the window at this point.
Coffee is getting a little out of hand though. They seem to go after our "habbits" first.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on December 06, 2010, 07:57:26 PM
On the other side of things, I just noticed that basic white rice at Costco has gone down since last year.  Last year it was $0.42/pound for the 50 pound bag, right now it's $0.365/pound.  I blew it and missed their Jasmine rice.  They only seem to carry it once a year, but that's primarily what I eat.  Well, I still have 100 pounds left, so I just might have to hit the reserves.  After that I'm down to 150 pounds of white and 40 pounds of Basmati. ;)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on December 06, 2010, 08:23:05 PM
I haven't tried Jasmine.... you say it is better than basmati?  hmm... might have to try it.

we have some 200lbs of basmati and about 80 of brown.  I have been mixing them 2 parts basmati to 1 part brown, and no one is complaining about the brown like they did when I tried it straight.

*note - I bought the brown before I discovered it doesn't store long periods.  I have 1 6-gal bucket sealed in mylar with oxy absorbers.  We'll see how that works when I open it in about a year.  by then it will be 4 years old.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: NWBowhunter on December 06, 2010, 08:38:11 PM
About a year go was the manufactured rice shortage. With all kinds of MSM articles about shortages that drove rpices up.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: hillclimber on December 08, 2010, 02:20:08 PM
At the "bulk store" I noticed some of my usual stuff was missing. Canned potatoes, cous cous, can't remember what else.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on December 09, 2010, 04:23:12 PM
I haven't tried Jasmine.... you say it is better than basmati?  hmm... might have to try it.
Jasmine is what you usually get in Asian food resturants and why it's sooo much better than the stuff most folks have at home.  Great tasting stuff.  You can pick it up by the small bags in the grocery stores to try it, then buy in bulk when you fall in love with it.
Title: Re: China's Food Prices Spike, Officials Fear Unrest. . .
Post by: LdMorgan on December 15, 2010, 07:08:38 AM
Great Britain is presently entering a micro-Ice Age, brought on in part by disruption of the Gulf Stream that became evident last June. The Brits are already starting to run short of some foods, and agriculture is looking pretty shaky in many areas.

Ditto for China. The Northern provinces are reeling from massive blizzards and sand storms. All agriculture there is severly endangered.

The spikes in food prices, and the recent price freezes and government intervention merely presage a severe famine. Britain, China, just pick a place: it's the same process everywhere.

If the US exports food to China (or any where else) to relieve their hunger, we'll be importing famine at the same time, and will be doing some hungering ourselves. We, too, are a net food importer.

It's time and past time to learn a few lessons from Cuba.



 
Title: World Food Prices Rise to Record on Sugar, Meat Costs
Post by: dep190 on January 05, 2011, 09:19:44 AM
This Article is interesting considering the Jump in fuel and grocery prices as of late!

World food prices rose to a record in December on higher sugar, grain and oilseed costs, the United Nations said, exceeding levels reached in 2008 that sparked deadly riots from Haiti to Egypt

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-05/global-food-prices-climb-to-record-on-cereal-sugar-costs-un-agency-says.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-05/global-food-prices-climb-to-record-on-cereal-sugar-costs-un-agency-says.html)
Title: Global food prices hit record high
Post by: Roknrandy on January 05, 2011, 07:21:00 PM
Food prices hit a record high last month, surpassing the levels seen during the 2007-08 crisis, the UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation said on Wednesday.   more at the link below
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/BUSINESS/01/05/food.prices.ft/index.html?hpt=Sbin (http://edition.cnn.com/2011/BUSINESS/01/05/food.prices.ft/index.html?hpt=Sbin)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: BatonRouge Bill on January 08, 2011, 08:17:31 PM
A name brand can of whole kernal corn at Wally World today....$.96 :o
Starting to see the larger price jumps now.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z0CU_tXpD0# (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z0CU_tXpD0#)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Bradbn4 on January 08, 2011, 08:56:45 PM
Good clip - my ahh - this is a bit high was at least 6 months ago I went to Mc'D for two egg Mc'Muffins with sausage + one of those premium ice coffees. 

After have them repeat the price I said ok  and that was the last time I went there.
I think the price was around 9 dollars - and well, I know a dozen eggs + a dozen English muffins cost less.  And today I get my coffee via one of the small instant packages.  Not the best, but one meal that way is more than a weeks worth making it myself.

Oh, and I dropped the sausage from my version - and go with a better quality cheese. 

I expect the price to go up at least another 20%  - I base my guess on how silver is doing. 

Brad
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on January 08, 2011, 09:13:39 PM
When I opened up the tub of butter mix I thought "they didn't fill it up all the way". No they didn't. The previously 16oz is now 15oz at same price.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on January 08, 2011, 09:18:20 PM
Yes, we've been noticing the same thing. Quantities are decreasing and prices are going up.
Lower quantities at the same price is a defacto price increase.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chrisdfw on January 08, 2011, 11:09:53 PM
Food is becoming more a concern for me. For the prior year the political tension and economic problems had me thinking a lot more about social unrest, and I focused on that. Now I have committed to spending 200 a month increasing food storage.

I worry a little about fuel as well, but there is little I can do other than be ready... can't store 1000 gallons of gasoline and diesel in the backyard.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: daved on January 09, 2011, 07:07:38 AM
The latest price increase I saw at work is even sneakier than just cutting the size of the package. The package size actually increased, but the price went up too. Of course the price per ounce is now higher than it used to be.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on January 09, 2011, 07:56:36 AM
I noticed last night my usual bottle of wine went up by a dollar.  Ouch, that's hittin' a guy where it hurts!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: soccer grannie on January 09, 2011, 08:25:01 AM
A little nostalgia: In the early 70s beef prices were very reasonable. Then out of nowhere and for no reason other than greed, beef prices went through the roof. I remember something about the government wanting to intervene but housewives across the country quickly remedied the problem -- we did not buy beef -- we bought chicken, pork and fish and had meatless dinners a couple of nights a week. Since meat is a perishable item, it didn't take long for the price to come down.

My thinking is if it is an item you can do without and the price skyrockets, buy a substitute.

The consumers won then and I don't see why we can't do it again, especially with perishable food items.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on January 09, 2011, 11:26:33 AM
An excellent strategy if the price increase was on one or two items, but these increases are across the board. Our only hedge against this are those of us who had the foresight to build up a reserve either by canning, storing, or both.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on January 11, 2011, 11:08:56 AM
Bushel of Corn way up today because of drought in Argentina,oil also up 1.50 q barrel this morning.

         kiteflyer


      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-11/corn-futures-advance-as-dry-weather-stresses-argentina-crop-soybeans-gain.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-11/corn-futures-advance-as-dry-weather-stresses-argentina-crop-soybeans-gain.html)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on January 11, 2011, 04:15:03 PM
I'm really intrigued as I learn about various alternative grains.  I was just listening to a podcast somewhere that brought up how much more drought resistant blue corn was vs. sweet corn.  I've also been looking into Chia and Quinoa.  I already use Chia seeds in my water bottles (natural source of omega 3s & 6s, along with electrolytes) and I've heard great things about the hardiness of Quinoa.  Between that and Jack's favorite, Amaranth, there are grains that we can all grow with minimal input that improve our resiliance in the event of a global food shortage.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: hanzel on January 11, 2011, 08:49:29 PM
A little nostalgia: In the early 70s beef prices were very reasonable. Then out of nowhere and for no reason other than greed, beef prices went through the roof. I remember something about the government wanting to intervene but housewives across the country quickly remedied the problem -- we did not buy beef -- we bought chicken, pork and fish and had meatless dinners a couple of nights a week. Since meat is a perishable item, it didn't take long for the price to come down.

My thinking is if it is an item you can do without and the price skyrockets, buy a substitute.

The consumers won then and I don't see why we can't do it again, especially with perishable food items.

IMHO I disagree with your nostalgia.  I remember 70's also but remember Nixon took us off the gold standard and the dollar started its free fall.  Then we had Carter and his WIN buttons and slogans of driving 55, turning the thermostat to 72 and .. cleaning your plate to save food dollars, while the federal reserve cranked up the printers.  Why was it the ranchers "greed" that the US government devalued the dollar ? You may not understand that in an inflationary period not all prices raise at the same levels at the same time, just because the cost of item A increases today, item B now based on items A new price may take a week before its price must be increased.  By boycotting the meat until a lower price can be had only leaves you with rotten meat, and now you must replace the cost of the meat and pass it on somewhere.  You may wish to try the substitution route but I dont.  I have already seen to many, american jobs substituted for indian jobs, american goods substituted by chinese goods.  Seeing I can get these new items now at lower cost, I am lowering inflation and saving the country.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on January 13, 2011, 07:30:36 PM
this is getting interesting, terrifyingly interesting:
Obama Orders Military To Prepare For Spring Food Riots

http://www.eutimes.net/2011/01/obama-orders-military-to-prepare-for-spring-food-riots/ (http://www.eutimes.net/2011/01/obama-orders-military-to-prepare-for-spring-food-riots/)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chrisdfw on January 13, 2011, 09:57:21 PM
Every day that goes by I believe more and more that food is going to be more and more of an issue, possibly in the near future.

I stocked the pantry with an extra 25 pounds of rice and 10 pounds of pasta to put away for long term and made sure that I have
a full month of everything I use that isn't perishable. Tomorrow I stock up on the frozen meat. At least 30-40 pounds of beef and chicken.
Maybe some canned meat if I can find a deal.
Title: Re: China's Food Prices Spike, Officials Fear Unrest. . .
Post by: chrisdfw on January 13, 2011, 10:00:43 PM
If the US exports food to China (or any where else) to relieve their hunger, we'll be importing famine at the same time, and will be doing some hungering ourselves. We, too, are a net food importer.


We are only a net importer because we give away our food for free or near free as aid, and yet we buy the food we bring in.

We also export cheap food like race and grains, and buy expensive wines, cheeses, seafood, etc.

We produce more than enough to feed ourselves, only on a dollar basis are we a net importer, on a calorie or volume basis we have more than we eat.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sweethearts Mom on January 13, 2011, 10:14:56 PM
Could the increasing prices of food actually be a result of supply and demand since more people are being encouraged by our government to "prepare"? Could the prepping mentality lately in state and federal emergency orgs simply be a last ditch effort to cause people to spend money they would normally hang on to which in turn causes high demand which in turn causes prices to go up? Just a thought.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: OKGranny on January 13, 2011, 10:36:49 PM
I don't think so SHM, I checked the gov sites 2-3 weeks ago just to see what they are saying and they are recommending people have a whopping 2 weeks worth of food. If people are following gov regs it shouldn't affect pricing much. I can't imagine just having 2 weeks worth of food, I have more than that in my kitchen cupboards that aren't even a part of my preps.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: OldManSchmidt on January 14, 2011, 12:15:42 AM
I think it might have an impact, just not this much.  To put it in perspective by playing with the numbers, the US has a population of roughly 308 million.  Let us conservatively assume that roughly 10% of the population is of a similar mindset to us and round the number off at 31 million.  Let us further assume that at the other end of the spectrum there is another roughly 10% that have essentially empty refrigerators, call it 31 million as well.  We'll place the rest of the population somewhere in the middle and say that they have somewhere between 1 week and 1 month of food on hand.

If these numbers are even close to true, that leaves roughly 31 million people who might panic.  Of those, let's get adventurous and say half of those actually listen to the warnings.  That leaves 15.5 million people who have empty cupboards and a desire to change their situation. 
Each day's worth of stores at 2 meals a day those people purchase represents a total food purchase of 31 million meals worth of food.  It doesn't sound like much in the grand scheme of things, but in our JIT supply chain that is set up to minimize loss due to spoilage, 31 million meals is significant.  Now what if the numbers held true across the board with the exception of people like us who are already stocked up well beyond 2 weeks?  Take us out of the mix and we have roughly 277 million people.  Half of those purchasing to build up the pantry would represent 277 million meals worth of food per day they increase their stores.  Increases in those numbers would really do a number on supply.

Now even if this is all similar to reality, the hit to the supply chain would be real and significant, but short lived.  What's more, many of these people would have a "what have I done" moment as soon as they got home with the goods and would simply live off them for the next 2 weeks.  During that time, they would buy little and then go back to their old shopping habits...whatever those might be.

No, I think there is real potential of supply shortages.  I also think part of the problem can be traced back to farm subsidies.  When it is more profitable to leave land fallow than to put it in production, it would require a fool or a person with an exceptional grasp of the future to plant that ground anyway.  Add to that, there has been no real incentive to add significant storage capacity for foodstuffs in the past.  Part of the reason the farmers don't grow more is that there literally is no place to put it at harvest and no place to sell it without the bottom dropping out of the prices.  Oh sure, the 3rd world could really use the food, but who's going to pay for it.  Let's face facts.  From those like us who plant home gardens to the family farm to Monsanto and ADM, nobody does it purely for charity.  We do it for the supply and cost saving advantages and the professional growers at all levels do it for their living.  We might all of us give away part of our harvest for various reasons, but not nearly as much as we keep or sell respectively.
Title: Food Protests in Jordan and Riots in The Middle East
Post by: kiteflyer on January 14, 2011, 09:23:51 AM


     Soon to come to The USA,the signs are popping up everywhere.Muni bonds to default,states raising taxes by double digits and slashing services into the meat and bone.I suspect by summer riots will be here in The USA. We are not immune to stupid politicians,energy shortages and home mortgages defaults pushing families into the streets. Have a nice day! ;) Get prepared!

                 kiteflyer

       http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE70D3AQ20110114 (http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE70D3AQ20110114)

        http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/poverty-a-major-worry-for-arab-world-1.745357 (http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/poverty-a-major-worry-for-arab-world-1.745357)
Title: Global food chain stretched to the limit Soaring prices spark fears of social u
Post by: The Professor on January 14, 2011, 09:47:25 AM
From MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41062817/ns/business-consumer_news (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41062817/ns/business-consumer_news)

Exerpt:

"We are entering a danger territory," Abdolreza Abbassian, chief economist at the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said last week.

The Professor
Title: Re: Global food chain stretched to the limit Soaring prices spark fears of social u
Post by: amanadoo on January 14, 2011, 10:44:27 AM
Note how they say Americans and others are better off because we eat more processed foods then goes on to say that food shortages are a good thing because it means that standards of living are improving.

Ulgh. EAT MORE MONSANTO-MADE CRAP, YOU'LL BE BETTER OFF. "They" keep the poor of the world under their thumb, one way or another.
Title: Re: Food Protests in Jordan and Riots in The Middle East
Post by: womule on January 14, 2011, 11:23:55 AM
I tend to agree with what you said except I don't expect to see food riots in the USA so soon. If prices start getting that high we will stop exporting like russia has.

Then congress will halt grains being used for biofuels.

My concern is, what pressure will the world put on us to keep us from cutting exports?  Who would be willing to go to war over food?  China has a lot of mouths to feed, how would they react when we stop exporting food to them?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sweethearts Mom on January 14, 2011, 01:29:42 PM
As you can see just on this thread there is news link after news link after news link. The threat of food shortages and increasing food prices is hitting the media world wide. This has to have an affect on fear. And you all know that fear is a great motivator for buying. Even people who are not thinking about it will see news links like this and buy more than usual. Don't you think?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: OldManSchmidt on January 14, 2011, 01:53:31 PM
I think going to war with the US over food is going to be an absolute last resort.  In a major war, the participating nations are all going to be diverting food production into sustaining the military, including the production of biofuels.  They will do this to the extent that they will short their own civilian population.  The US did this during WWII and I have no doubt that we would do it again if the situation arose.

I do believe that those nations whom we supply with foodstuffs would take a run at us, and any other supplier nation to them, through economic and diplomatic means.  That is, China would tie its exports to the US with our exports of food to them.  We don't ship food; they don't ship computers, clothing, etc.  I think the same would happen with oil producing nations who export to us with much more immediately damning consequences.  Pushed far enough, I think even our Government would loosen restrictions on domestic drilling and other fuel production enterprises, but it would take time to ramp up production.  I am less than certain we have that much time to spare with our current situation.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on January 14, 2011, 01:55:43 PM
Even people who are not thinking about it will see news links like this and buy more than usual. Don't you think?

Not unless the crises is at their doorstep, or has already happened. I wonder how many New Yorkers were out looking for a grocery store 12 hours into the storm.

What's the deal with Mountain House being out of stock of practically every item they sell?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on January 14, 2011, 02:12:16 PM
What's the deal with Mountain House being out of stock of practically every item they sell?
The understanding I had from the e-mails I received from two mountain house suppliers is that they've put maximum limits on all their retail customers based on past purchase patterns because they were essentially at the capacity of their production.  Demand has been up for since 2008/2009 when the economic crisis started and they have two choices; invest in new production capacity for what might be short term demand (ending after 12/21/12) or just keep production at capacity until the wave passes.

Other FD manufacturers like Providant Pantry, NitroPak and others haven't implimented the same limitations... yet...

Personally, I'm already in a comfortable position in most areas for food storage.  I need a good source of egg noodles and then it's all down to garden production and maintenance to serve as my buffer for the coming food shortages.

Don't forget Costco has some great prices for FD food on their website including one year family packages.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mamabear on January 14, 2011, 02:28:20 PM
Personally, I'm already in a comfortable position in most areas for food storage.  I need a good source of egg noodles and then it's all down to garden production and maintenance to serve as my buffer for the coming food shortages.

Make your own egg noodles. Then you are good to go.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: bartsdad on January 14, 2011, 02:30:39 PM
With all this going on , can you imagine how silly it would be for our country to devote 25% of its grain production to making bio fuels. Oh, and imagine if the government subsidized it too. Glad that isn't happening here. ::)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on January 14, 2011, 02:48:15 PM
Make your own egg noodles. Then you are good to go.
You may as well have said "just scratch your ear with your elbow" with my prowess in the kitchen.  I'm sure it's a perfectly rational suggestion, but I think you have me confused with someone who has a clue at the stove. ;)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mamabear on January 14, 2011, 02:56:56 PM
You may as well have said "just scratch your ear with your elbow" with my prowess in the kitchen.  I'm sure it's a perfectly rational suggestion, but I think you have me confused with someone who has a clue at the stove. ;)

LOL. Sorry about your lack of culinary skills. I do have a recipe though, should you ever want to try it. It's surprisingly easy.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on January 15, 2011, 08:11:23 AM
LOL. Sorry about your lack of culinary skills. I do have a recipe though, should you ever want to try it. It's surprisingly easy.

I'm all ears.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cohutt on January 16, 2011, 05:26:34 PM
More...  

From Chairman of Unilever, who undoubtedly keeps up with food supply & prices since

Quote
Unilever buys 12pc of the world's tea to make brands such as PG Tips and Liptons. It also purchases 6pc of the world's tomato supply for its leading brands such as Knorr soup and Pot Noodle.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/8261856/Unilever-chief-warns-over-global-crisis-in-food-output.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/8261856/Unilever-chief-warns-over-global-crisis-in-food-output.html)

and msm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41062817/ns/business-consumer_news/ (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41062817/ns/business-consumer_news/)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on January 18, 2011, 08:48:13 AM
Here is a Breitbart article on this subject. Lester Brown has been beating the drums for decades about sustainability, and even though I don't share his beliefs about sea levels and global warming, I do agree with his conclusions about the world being at a tipping point both natural and polititcal. He is educated in agrecultural science and has done much work to increase food production in third world countries. We are "one poor harvest" from chaos.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.999426eed38d24123132435f3d303867.31&show_article=1 (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.999426eed38d24123132435f3d303867.31&show_article=1)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on January 18, 2011, 10:33:01 AM
Here is a Breitbart article on this subject. Lester Brown has been beating the drums for decades about sustainability, and even though I don't share his beliefs about sea levels and global warming, I do agree with his conclusions about the world being at a tipping point both natural and polititcal. He is educated in agrecultural science and has done much work to increase food production in third world countries. We are "one poor harvest" from chaos.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.999426eed38d24123132435f3d303867.31&show_article=1 (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.999426eed38d24123132435f3d303867.31&show_article=1)
+1 nice find.

Within that link there's a link to Brown's website and he's giving his book away for free in Adobe!  Here. (http://www.earth-policy.org/books/wote)  There's also a pretty good quick and dirty powerpoint on the world grain shortage. 
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: swoods on January 18, 2011, 12:06:51 PM
Ok, it has been awhile since I needed to purchase pasta. I had plenty in my pantry such as elbows, angel hair, liguine; however, the angel hair pasta needed to be restocked, went to Wally World and holy crap, last time I bought angel hair it was .50 a box, now it is $1. I had shopped at the farmer's market all summer and my grocery store trip was quite depressing.

I make my homemade noodles and now perhaps I will investigate how to make some shapes and practice making really skinny noodles!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sweethearts Mom on January 18, 2011, 07:22:17 PM
I stocked up on pasta last weekend also and thought the same thing. But I did find something cool. Over in the mexican food isle they also have pasta. that is where I found .33 bags of pasta stars and alphabets and made the grand boys some homemade chicken alphabet soup with my canned broth and chicken. All they could say while they were eating it was "Nanna this is really really good."
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mamabear on January 18, 2011, 09:29:29 PM
I'm all ears.
Sorry. It's been a few days since I was on here! Here ya go:
2 cups all purpose or whole wheat flour
3 egg yolks
1 egg
2 tsp salt
1/4 to 1/2 cup water

Make a well in flour, add egg yolks, egg and salt and mix thoroughly. mix in water 1 tbsp at a time until dough is stiff but easy to roll. divide in dough in fourths. Roll one part at a time and cover remaining. Roll into paper thin rectangle on generously floured cloth covered board. Loosely fold rectangle lengthwise into thirds and cut crosswise into 1/8  or 1/4inch strips. Unfold and place on towel until stiff and dry.
Break into smaller pieces and cook in water until tender.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LvsChant on January 19, 2011, 01:41:19 PM
Ok, it has been awhile since I needed to purchase pasta. I had plenty in my pantry such as elbows, angel hair, liguine; however, the angel hair pasta needed to be restocked, went to Wally World and holy crap, last time I bought angel hair it was .50 a box, now it is $1. I had shopped at the farmer's market all summer and my grocery store trip was quite depressing.

I make my homemade noodles and now perhaps I will investigate how to make some shapes and practice making really skinny noodles!


I had a similar experience on the beans and rice aisle recently... I thought maybe I was losing my mind... it couldn't have doubled , could it?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: jasperg357 on January 19, 2011, 04:37:28 PM
the LDS Cannery here in Tucker Ga. just raised there prices and I would think the price increase would apply to all there locations. Some of the price increase are listed below and the prices are for the number 10 cans.

Milk > .85
Potato Flakes > .45
Carrots > .40
Spaghetti > .75
Macaroni > .55
Apples > .20
Sugar > .65
Red Wheat > .10
White Wheat > .20

The pinto beans and oat prices remained the same.

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexDaddy on January 19, 2011, 05:23:58 PM
We buy a cheap ground beef (high fat content) to use in spagetti sauce, etc. I just noticed today, that from one trip to the next, it had gone up $.11/lb, a 5% increase.

The good, grass fed, hormone free stuff we buy recently went up almost 20%.

I many have to put a couple of Herefords in the backyard.  ;D
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on February 07, 2011, 09:26:33 PM


       Corn Prices To Soar As Chinese Imports Increase Ninefold!

       If correct look for food and beef to soar! Too bad it's buried in this thread! I guess poor Americans are going to more eat rice.While rich Chinese eat beef!

            kiteflyer

        http://www.zerohedge.com/article/corn-prices-soar-chinese-imports-increase-ninefold-compared-official-projections (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/corn-prices-soar-chinese-imports-increase-ninefold-compared-official-projections)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Bradbn4 on February 07, 2011, 10:01:16 PM
I was more prepared for gas going back over $3.00 a gal - but at the local Safeway - bacon for 7 dollars a lb....

I guess that trip I learned a few things,

1) I don't buy bacon often to keep track of the price
2) Safeway is not cheap
3) I need to stock up on more long term ( 1 year or more) food.
4) Yoder’s Canned Bacon still costs way too much - but might be a fair deal considering what Safeway charges.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on February 08, 2011, 09:01:41 AM
    Once again Food Shortages are creeping into 2011 picture with most food grains,remember to prep for food because you can't eat metal!

            kiteflyer


     Drought endangers Chinese winter wheat !

       http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110208/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_un_china_drought (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110208/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_un_china_drought)
       

     Yoder's Bacon taste terrible on reviews posted on line.


I was more prepared for gas going back over $3.00 a gal - but at the local Safeway - bacon for 7 dollars a lb....

I guess that trip I learned a few things,

1) I don't buy bacon often to keep track of the price
2) Safeway is not cheap
3) I need to stock up on more long term ( 1 year or more) food.
4) Yoder’s Canned Bacon still costs way too much - but might be a fair deal considering what Safeway charges.

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: homeshow on February 08, 2011, 09:21:50 AM

       Corn Prices To Soar As Chinese Imports Increase Ninefold!

       If correct look for food and beef to soar! Too bad it's buried in this thread! I guess poor Americans are going to more eat rice.While rich Chinese eat beef!

            kiteflyer

        http://www.zerohedge.com/article/corn-prices-soar-chinese-imports-increase-ninefold-compared-official-projections (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/corn-prices-soar-chinese-imports-increase-ninefold-compared-official-projections)


good time to buy a cow for the back yard!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on February 08, 2011, 01:54:28 PM
It will be interesting to see if the price of organically raised grass fed beef will rise proportionately to the corn fed commercial beef.  I'd hope to see some disconnect due to lower operating costs for the grass fed producers.  Wouldn't it be ironic if grass fed actually became cheaper again???
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexDaddy on February 08, 2011, 05:40:46 PM
It will be interesting to see if the price of organically raised grass fed beef will rise proportionately to the corn fed commercial beef.  I'd hope to see some disconnect due to lower operating costs for the grass fed producers.  Wouldn't it be ironic if grass fed actually became cheaper again???
It would be great, but, where we get ours, at least, it has gone up more and more quickly. Higher operating cost have caused many producers to slaughter out early.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sweethearts Mom on February 08, 2011, 06:13:36 PM
It would be great, but, where we get ours, at least, it has gone up more and more quickly. Higher operating cost have caused many producers to slaughter out early.

the more people come to realize how good it is, the higher the price will go;
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexDaddy on February 08, 2011, 06:16:59 PM
the more people come to realize how good it is, the higher the price will go;
And there is that. Increased demand for the good stuff and less demand for the junk.
Title: Global Food Price Spikes - NPR
Post by: surfivor on February 09, 2011, 08:20:04 AM
 global food prices and what sounds like possible shortages was on NPR today:

http://onpoint.wbur.org/2011/02/09/global-food-price-spikes (http://onpoint.wbur.org/2011/02/09/global-food-price-spikes)

2008 was a bad year for global food supplies. A real pinch.

Now, just over two years later, the pinch is back. The U.N.’s global food price index is at a record high. Experts say the era of “cheap food” is ending. That’s good for farmers with food to sell, but hard for everybody else.

It’s a factor in the unrest in the Middle East. It can push inflation all over, and it leaves people hungry. We’ve got high global demand, smaller crop yields, bad weather – maybe from climate change – and biofuels cutting into food crops.  It’’s a recipe for trouble.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: eph2 on February 09, 2011, 08:37:37 AM
It will be interesting to see if the price of organically raised grass fed beef will rise proportionately to the corn fed commercial beef.  I'd hope to see some disconnect due to lower operating costs for the grass fed producers.  Wouldn't it be ironic if grass fed actually became cheaper again???

Grass fed takes longer to get to optimum weight and alot of patures used to start cattle aren't robust enough to finish them.
Title: Re: Global Food Price Spikes - NPR
Post by: Greywolf27 on February 09, 2011, 09:28:40 AM
I think we need to add that the population has grown to a level that isn't sustainable either.  We are the only species on the planet that doesn't balance with the earth...
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on February 09, 2011, 12:14:23 PM

 FYI! Hope  all here have foreseen this! It not going down either!

       kiteflyer

     Grain Prices Rally Toward 2008 Records!!

        http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-09/grain-prices-rally-toward-2008-records-on-shrinking-world-supply.html (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-09/grain-prices-rally-toward-2008-records-on-shrinking-world-supply.html)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LvsChant on February 09, 2011, 09:27:12 PM
Another interesting article: http://www.cfr.org/health-science-and-technology/food-prices-global-instability/p24018 (http://www.cfr.org/health-science-and-technology/food-prices-global-instability/p24018)

Much of the unrest in the middle east is tied to rising prices of food. The poorer members of society there pay a huge percentage of their income for just basic food. Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat. We have all been complaining about the shrinkage of packaging weights in the same packaging... getting less for the same cost, etc. These people cannot be fooled when they buy the actual commodity. When the price of wheat doubles... they cannot afford to eat every meal.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on February 10, 2011, 03:19:36 PM
Acording to an Omaha paper - Get ready for higher food prices in 3 to 6 months.
http://www.omaha.com/article/20110210/NEWS01/702109884/0#get-ready-for-higher-food-prices (http://www.omaha.com/article/20110210/NEWS01/702109884/0#get-ready-for-higher-food-prices)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LdMorgan on February 10, 2011, 08:18:40 PM
I just read an article on Rense.com that indicated an 80%-100% crop loss in Mexico due to the recent freezes. The first freeze left the Mexican producers buying to re-sell in order to meet their delivery contracts, but that is no longer a viable option.

Crops including green beans , eggplants, squash, peppers, cukes, & tomatoes, have been devastated by the worst freeze in over 50 years.

Expect a sharp jump in the cost of Mexican produce now through the next 6 months.

This is just one of several major crop failures I have read bgout recently.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on February 11, 2011, 12:43:48 PM
The new just gets better and better!! :'(
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: NWBowhunter on February 15, 2011, 06:43:52 AM
More shortages and agflation is here http://www.kgw.com/news/local/Produce-prices-skyrocket-overnight-115985429.html (http://www.kgw.com/news/local/Produce-prices-skyrocket-overnight-115985429.html)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Greywolf27 on February 15, 2011, 08:00:25 AM
It is times like these that I am happy to be a prepper.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on February 15, 2011, 08:22:21 AM
It is times like these that I am happy to be a prepper.
It's times like these I wish I was a better gardener!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on February 15, 2011, 08:46:51 AM
It's times like these I wish I was a better gardener!

said for truth!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Polar Bear on February 15, 2011, 03:31:58 PM
Here's more to back it up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12474021 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12474021)

Glad I put my tomato plants in pots this year.  :)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chrisdfw on February 15, 2011, 07:01:31 PM
said for truth!

reading this earlier today sent me to the garden center to get ready for spring crops. I am going to try and do double this year.

I am planting in pots mainly, since I will be moving within a year, but the extra practice and seed saving are the skills.

I am as worried about food in the coming two years as some people were about ammo over the last two.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on February 16, 2011, 08:23:16 AM
I am as worried about food in the coming two years as some people were about ammo over the last two.
The difference is that when there was an ammo shortage in 2008-2009, you had to spend a little less time at the range.  With a food shortage, we'll all probably spend a little more time at the range. ;)
Title: Article : U.S. crop boom not enough to rebuild thin supplies
Post by: The Professor on February 24, 2011, 06:02:03 PM
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110224/bs_nm/us_usda_forum (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110224/bs_nm/us_usda_forum)

Exerpt:

"Huge U.S. corn and soybean plantings this spring will likely fail to refill razor-thin stocks enough to quell the surge in grain prices, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Thursday."

The Professor.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on February 25, 2011, 02:43:02 PM
I've never used this source, but here it is:http://www.angelfoodministries.com/about/ (http://www.angelfoodministries.com/about/)
Title: Food Prices!!!
Post by: jhaggs35 on February 28, 2011, 05:34:15 AM
An interesting video on CNN about the potential for skyrocketing food prices this year. All the more reason to prepare..


http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2011/02/27/gps.what.world.food.cnn?hpt=T2 (http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2011/02/27/gps.what.world.food.cnn?hpt=T2)
Title: Re: Food Prices!!!
Post by: Nicodemus on February 28, 2011, 07:41:21 AM
I saw that report. It does a good job in short span of showing the connections between current events and food prices and vise versa.

Thanks for posting it!

jhaggs35, if you haven't already, please drop by The Front Porch > Intro Thread and introduce yourself to the boards!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chrisdfw on February 28, 2011, 01:30:07 PM
50 pound bag of rice is 80,000 calories and still available for a reasonable price. I think everyone should have at least 2 per person. Get it now, store it properly and you have almost two months of survival rations per bag/person.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on February 28, 2011, 02:09:05 PM
50 pound bag of rice is 80,000 calories and still available for a reasonable price. I think everyone should have at least 2 per person. Get it now, store it properly and you have almost two months of survival rations per bag/person.
Same goes for beans and vegitable oil.  That combination of three ingredients is the staple of billions of people around the world... all at about $.40-50/pound.

Add some chicken and beef bullion, peas, carrots, maybe a little meat and you're talking about soup 'til it comes out your ears for a quarter a serving.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LvsChant on March 07, 2011, 08:10:06 AM
http://www.examiner.com/cooking-in-charlotte/food-prices-reach-record-high-again-what-you-can-do (http://www.examiner.com/cooking-in-charlotte/food-prices-reach-record-high-again-what-you-can-do)

More mainstream coverage...
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on March 07, 2011, 08:53:36 AM
In just two years the bulk price of "Corn, No. 2 yellow" rose 48.8% from $5.10 per bushel to $7.97.
Title: Biggest jump in food prices in 3 decades?
Post by: buffalosoldier on March 16, 2011, 02:29:23 PM
This is my first topic, so I hope this is where I should be putting this.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wholesale-prices-up-16-pct-on-apf-3777454020.html?x=0&.v=1 (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wholesale-prices-up-16-pct-on-apf-3777454020.html?x=0&.v=1)

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Wholesale prices jumped last month by the most in nearly two years due to higher energy costs and the steepest rise in food prices in 36 years. Excluding those volatile categories, inflation was tame....


Looks like i picked the right time to get serious. The wife and I purchased our first bulk food supply. Inventoried out, we have enough to last us at current consumption rates, for approx 3 months before we start going light on certain items. I am thinking I should follow Jack's advice and get some bulk dry food for the dogs, unless i plan to be splitting my own canned food with them now.... because this has got me a bit worried.

Edited: after reading Fair Use post. Sorry.
Title: Re: Biggest jump in food prices in 3 decades?
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 16, 2011, 03:00:46 PM
This is my first topic, so I hope this is where I should be putting this.

No, but we'll forgive you. ;)  [I merged it with the existing topic on food price increases and shortages.]

Edited: after reading Fair Use post. Sorry.

Thank you very much for catching that!

Welcome aboard, buffalosoldier.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: buffalosoldier on March 17, 2011, 06:36:28 AM
*grin* I am dumb and ugly, but I mean well and I try hard. That counts for something!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 17, 2011, 08:04:20 AM
I think, BS (hm... maybe we need a different acronym for your name  :P) Buffalo Soldier, you deserve a +1 for finding and adhering to the fair use policy ALL ON YOUR OWN.  I think that shows a lot of good qualities on your part, and I look forward to reading more of your posts.
also, cool name.   :)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on March 17, 2011, 03:53:44 PM
I think, BS (hm... maybe we need a different acronym for your name  :P) Buffalo Soldier, you deserve a +1 for finding and adhering to the fair use policy ALL ON YOUR OWN.  I think that shows a lot of good qualities on your part, and I look forward to reading more of your posts.
also, cool name.   :)

Buffalo Soldier - a name given to the black civil war soldiers by the American Indians due to the similarity of their hair with that of the buffalo. The American Indian had high regard for them, as of course they did the buffalo.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 17, 2011, 04:06:33 PM
continuing of thread jack - did you know that a woman served in the Buffalo Soldiers?  in a time of a few women disguising themselves as men and joining the military, so did a certain Cathay Williams - she enlisted under the name "William Cathay."
http://www.buffalosoldier.net/CathayWilliamsFemaleBuffaloSoldierWithDocuments.htm (http://www.buffalosoldier.net/CathayWilliamsFemaleBuffaloSoldierWithDocuments.htm)

thread jack over... (maybe)  ;D
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chrisdfw on March 17, 2011, 05:00:18 PM
I think, BS (hm... maybe we need a different acronym for your name  :P) Buffalo Soldier

Maybe just Buff?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 17, 2011, 05:13:44 PM
I like "Buff" - kind of manly.
but it is kind of reminiscent of Buffy (after all, her pal Xander calls her "Buff" a lot), and while I like Buffy the Vampire Slayer (all about the strong women types here), I am not quite sure that Buffalo Soldier wants that association.

so, Buffalo Soldier, any ideas for a short cut to your name for when we are typing a quick response to your posts?

-MS
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: buffalosoldier on March 17, 2011, 08:17:09 PM
B-lo? No, that might have a negative connotation as well... Buff it is, I guess.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 17, 2011, 08:35:41 PM
B-lo? No, that might have a negative connotation as well... Buff it is, I guess.

 ;D
welcome to the forum, Buff  8)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on March 17, 2011, 09:37:59 PM
back on topic: Buff, this food supply you purchased, did you sample it first? Do you have plans to incorporate it into your use or is it going into storage until SHTF?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: ncjeeper on March 18, 2011, 12:14:43 AM
Another reason for my first attempt at a garden this year.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: daved on March 20, 2011, 07:49:04 AM
I don't think I ever mentioned the latest price increases at work. The first round was a line that went up in size and also in price, with the price per ounce increasing. A couple of $0.99 items went to $1.29 and dropped by a fraction of an ounce. A few more $.099 things stayed the same price but got a little smaller (the exact weight change escapes me at the moment). The next round was an item dropping from 9.625 oz to 9 oz with no price change. After that comes (about to happen, but still the old size) a drop in size from 11.5 to 11 oz with no price change. Next (in May I believe) will be a price increase from $2.99 to $3.29 with the size remaining at 16oz. I also heard a rumor that something that decreased in price due to low sales is going to go back up the the original higher price. (This is all snack food if you're wondering).
I don't remember a time (in 15 years of working with this stuff) that so many things went up in price or down in size at the same time. It's not uncommon for an item to change, but this many all in the course of a few months is amazing.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on March 20, 2011, 10:42:10 AM
back on topic: Buff, this food supply you purchased, did you sample it first? Do you have plans to incorporate it into your use or is it going into storage until SHTF?
I'll redirect this question to everyone as I have sampled a long-term storage product  before placing an order and it tasted good, but not so good that I could eat it everyday and it didn't work well in my digestive system. So, has anyone tried using long-term storage food on a routine basis?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: buffalosoldier on March 20, 2011, 01:17:47 PM
back on topic: Buff, this food supply you purchased, did you sample it first? Do you have plans to incorporate it into your use or is it going into storage until SHTF?

Sample it? Nope. It is the same non perishables that I always get. I listed up what I consume over a month and multiplied it by 6.5. I went for the extra 50% because I figure caloric need might go up in a scenario. I call it 3 months worth since part of my deal is that I have another couple going in on this with us. They live on the other side of the city, in a small suburb/town, roughly 15-20 miles away. In case something happens local to one of us, we have another house to hold up in, with room for the dogs both couples have.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on March 20, 2011, 03:31:57 PM
@thox:  when I first started for the Forest Service, as a volunteer on a wilderness trail crew we had a huge cache of mountain house #10 cans.  That was dinner five days a week.  Breakfast was either dehydrated eggs (w/w/o bacon bits, definitely prefered with!), bisquik biskets, or pancakes.  Lunch was usually trail mix, smashed pb&j sandwiches, or candy bars (I was 19 and knew nothing of nutrition).

For the first third of the summer it was fine, but I was frequently packed up five days a week, which was convienient in the backcountry, albeit uncomfortable.  About mid-summer I got giardia and frankly, mountain house saved my arse, literally.  While giardia sucked, I didn't have health insurance and couldn't afford the meds to clear it up, so the giardia stayed with me for almost two years, with lapses of better and worse.  For those two years, I never traveled anywhere without my own roll of TP with me.

Anyway, with the right variety and some other stuff to eat one or two meals a day, its not bad, but do buy some exlax.  I've also baked my own 100% whole wheat bread and had similar issues, despite the fact that all that fiber should do the opposite.  Any major diet change causes problems, so integrating some of your preps into your daily diet is definitely a good idea.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chrisdfw on March 20, 2011, 04:49:08 PM
I buy very few pre-mixed meals, ie mountain house entrees, I largely buy the mountain house ingredients such as freeze dried ground beef, etc and plan to use it to make the stuff I eat now. I generally try to stock up on the things that I eat fresh now to the extent possible.

I also buy canned goods, if you look into it canned meats and the like can be as cheap or cheaper than freeze dried and have long shelf lives (10 years or more stored properly)

I store rice, beans, pasta that are parts of my regular diet.

I just don't see myself wanting to change my diet if I have a choice so I favor ingredients over prepared entrees. Additionally I find they prepared entrees to heavily weighted towards carbohydrates. Of course carbohydrates are much cheaper than other components, I want to have things resembling a normal diet.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 20, 2011, 05:35:46 PM
I'll redirect this question to everyone as I have sampled a long-term storage product  before placing an order and it tasted good, but not so good that I could eat it everyday and it didn't work well in my digestive system. So, has anyone tried using long-term storage food on a routine basis?

You might take a look at some of the posted reviews here -- for example:

Reviews of long-term storage foods (non-homemade) (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=12191.0) -- a bunch of products reviewed in one thread.

There are more threads on specific products in the Food Storage (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?board=58.0) and Food Preps (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?board=57.0) boards.

Related discussion: how long could you seriously live off of dried food ? (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=24554.0)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on March 20, 2011, 07:45:54 PM

 Yeah they warm the old frog up slowly in the pot and as it swims around it doesn't realize that the water is getting hotter and hotter until it's too late.Humans are much different.Sex,food and comfort is about it.  ;D Central banks with funny money have done it to us more than once.  ;)

            kiteflyer



I don't think I ever mentioned the latest price increases at work. The first round was a line that went up in size and also in price, with the price per ounce increasing. A couple of $0.99 items went to $1.29 and dropped by a fraction of an ounce. A few more $.099 things stayed the same price but got a little smaller (the exact weight change escapes me at the moment). The next round was an item dropping from 9.625 oz to 9 oz with no price change. After that comes (about to happen, but still the old size) a drop in size from 11.5 to 11 oz with no price change. Next (in May I believe) will be a price increase from $2.99 to $3.29 with the size remaining at 16oz. I also heard a rumor that something that decreased in price due to low sales is going to go back up the the original higher price. (This is all snack food if you're wondering).
I don't remember a time (in 15 years of working with this stuff) that so many things went up in price or down in size at the same time. It's not uncommon for an item to change, but this many all in the course of a few months is amazing.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on March 20, 2011, 10:00:38 PM
Yeah they warm the old frog up slowly in the pot and as it swims around it doesn't realize that the water is getting hotter and hotter until it's too late.Humans are much different.Sex,food and comfort is about it.  ;D Central banks with funny money have done it to us more than once.  ;) kiteflyer
I think that this trait is more characteristic of humans than of frogs.
You might take a look at some of the posted reviews here -- for example:Reviews of long-term storage foods (non-homemade) (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=12191.0) -- a bunch of products reviewed in one thread.
There are more threads on specific products in the Food Storage (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?board=58.0) and Food Preps (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?board=57.0) boards.Related discussion: how long could you seriously live off of dried food ? (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=24554.0)
Excellent links, I will study them, thank you!
I buy very few pre-mixed meals, ie mountain house entrees, I largely buy the mountain house ingredients such as freeze dried ground beef, etc and plan to use it to make the stuff I eat now. I generally try to stock up on the things that I eat fresh now to the extent possible.

I also buy canned goods, if you look into it canned meats and the like can be as cheap or cheaper than freeze dried and have long shelf lives (10 years or more stored properly)

I store rice, beans, pasta that are parts of my regular diet.

I just don't see myself wanting to change my diet if I have a choice so I favor ingredients over prepared entrees. Additionally I find they prepared entrees to heavily weighted towards carbohydrates. Of course carbohydrates are much cheaper than other components, I want to have things resembling a normal diet.
This has been our approach and I highly recommend it. We do have some prepared meals such as Mountain House@ which we found to be excellent, but overall buying foundational ingredients are the best approach if you know how to cook. We have been highly pleased with the products from Honeyville, which has been dried eggs (no longer temporarily available due to our government sincerely wanting to protect us ::) and the flaked grains. We've just placed another order for more of their products, and I would like to hear of products from other sources that people are satisfied with to gain a larger diversity of sources of supply. Right now, I think these suppliers are actually cheaper in the long run than anticipating summertime produce purchases at the farmers market.
Title: Do you like Tequila
Post by: buffalosoldier on March 21, 2011, 12:24:41 PM
(I am moving this myself, seems like it fits better here)


Well, I suggest you stock pile it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/story/2000/07/17/mb_170700tequila.html (http://www.cbc.ca/news/story/2000/07/17/mb_170700tequila.html)

It is about an Agave crop failure, which tequila is made out of, in 2000. Old news right, prolem must been solved? nope, Agave takes about 12 years to mature... what year is it again?

http://articles.cnn.com/2000-07-21/health/tequila.shortage_1_agave-tequila-producers-shortage?_s=PM:FOOD (http://articles.cnn.com/2000-07-21/health/tequila.shortage_1_agave-tequila-producers-shortage?_s=PM:FOOD)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/05/29/idUSN2924142520070530 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/05/29/idUSN2924142520070530)

Combine the three waves of pestilence and new fungi they have endured over the last two or three decades... Also, since ethanol is all the rage, farmers are using agave lands for biofuel crops now... and burning out the Agave. A plant, which by the way, is extraoridinairly sensitive, and only grows in one area in Mexico... so when it is gone... so is True Tequila. (also the two drugs that they were developing using Agave to help cure/combat Chron's disease and colitis.)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on March 31, 2011, 08:24:41 AM
Here is the latest news from Walmart; "U.S. consumers face "serious" inflation in the months ahead for clothing, food and other products, the head of Wal-Mart's U.S. operations warned Wednesday."

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/2011-03-30-wal-mart-ceo-expects-inflation_N.htm (http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/2011-03-30-wal-mart-ceo-expects-inflation_N.htm)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Slomad on March 31, 2011, 08:46:21 PM
I was reading an article about inflation and I learned something new to me, even if it may not be new to others. Basically, the reason people are seeing a disconnect between raising prices in the grocery stores and the relative slight inflation as reported by the government has to do with how they measure inflation.

Essentially, they have a basket of goods and compare the prices of those over time...BUT, and it's a big but, as the prices of those goods become really high, they stop counting those and choose a lower priced good. The logic is that it reflects consumer behavior in that as goods become more expensive, they switch to a cheaper version (a generic, for instance). Of course, this hides the actual inflation number, in my opinion, as you're no longer comparing like goods to like goods. And it explains why they keep saying inflation is low despite what we're all seeing in the stores.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on March 31, 2011, 08:54:07 PM
Slomad: this is why one should avoid TIPS (treasury inflation protected securities) as they adjust according to the governments' fake inflation index.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on April 02, 2011, 11:13:43 AM

     Kroger Stores have stop tripling all coupons in The Greater Houston Area,only face value for now on.Everything is increasing across the board now and if you have not prepared and have not started a garden then time is running out quickly! The middle class is dying in America,it will be accelerating every where now. The good old days are gone.

              kiteflyer   
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: monkeyboyf on April 02, 2011, 10:35:14 PM
Went to Dollar General today.  Right away I noticed the price increase per item from two weeks ago. This was across the board on everything. They are also adding more imported canned goods, hard to tell where they are being canned.  I bought more Spam and vienna sausages and skipped the canned chicken and tuna in off-brands. Even the paper products were priced up.  Oh, well, I agree with Kite, it is really beginning.  Hold on to your drawers! ;D
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on April 03, 2011, 12:17:06 AM
Add to your stores ocean food now as future products will be tainted radioactive. Anything in a can from the ocean will be tripled in price due to fear of the same.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: buffalosoldier on April 04, 2011, 08:51:02 AM
I have a thought:

We, as a community, notice the price change faster than others simply from not going as often to the stores, so the price jumps that seem subtle to others or gradual, really stand out to us.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mamabear on April 06, 2011, 07:33:33 PM
Buff, I agree to some extent. We as a community are more in tune with the individual prices going up or the weight going down. However, the average consumer, while maybe not noticing those individual price/weight fluctuations, is surely noticing that the total grocery bill going up. Most everyone I know has made some sort of comment on the fact that their cost of groceries are higher, even if they don't know which specific item. They just assume that everything is going up. And really, it is. 
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: daved on April 07, 2011, 01:29:23 PM
If anyone has beef jerky as part of their stored food plan, now may be the time to grab some if you need it.
I just got a memo at work that Jack Links will be increasing their prices by around 8% across all of the products that we carry. I don't know this part for fact, but I would assume it would also include the Matador brand that they make for Frito. The price changes go into effect in May.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on April 07, 2011, 04:24:14 PM
If anyone has beef jerky as part of their stored food plan, now may be the time to grab some if you need it.
I just got a memo at work that Jack Links will be increasing their prices by around 8% across all of the products that we carry. I don't know this part for fact, but I would assume it would also include the Matador brand that they make for Frito. The price changes go into effect in May.
Only Wyoming changing their license fees would increase the cost of my antelope jerky.  Mmmmm, antelope jerky, nom-nom-nom-nom...
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on April 08, 2011, 07:00:20 PM
Yeah, Kroger now has a Gas kick back on buying groceries! The public is so dumb because gas is why food is skyrocketing! Pretty soon they will have a wheel of fortune spin off at the cash register along with scratch -offs lotto tickets as pay outs!  :D Capitalism is dying fast with no oil to be had anymore. Keep the masses in a trance as you mesmerize them with the big pay out at the end of the rainbow! Have you ever seen the end of a rainbow? You never will!

                  kiteflyer
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on April 09, 2011, 08:03:16 AM
Took a cruise through the 'Food Center' at Wal-Mart last night. They have a guard posted in the produce area to make sure nobody takes a bite.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: NWBowhunter on April 09, 2011, 08:06:09 AM
Hunger forecast to become global reality
'The world needs food more than it needs iPhones'


Read more: Hunger forecast to become global reality
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=284789 (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=284789)


Good facts about the productivity of having a garden and being self sufficient.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: BatonRouge Bill on April 09, 2011, 03:32:11 PM
 I heard LDS will no longer be selling to non members. I was curious if that was just one area or if they were starting to see shortages. Anyone else know if this is true. A youtuber posted it.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on April 09, 2011, 04:28:22 PM
nwbowhunter: I followed the first link at that article and came up with a very interesting site:http://www.offthegridnews.net
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: NWBowhunter on April 09, 2011, 05:07:42 PM
It's an ad but does sound like an interesting newsletter. I sure much of the material is here on the forum.
Title: A 15 Year Low for Corn Reserves
Post by: Nicodemus on April 10, 2011, 01:40:42 PM
US Corn reserves Expected to Fall to 15-Year Low (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110408/ap_on_bi_ge/us_crop_size)

"ST. LOUIS – Rising demand for corn from ethanol producers is pushing U.S. reserves to the lowest point in 15 years, a trend that could lead to higher grain and food prices this year."
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LvsChant on April 12, 2011, 10:57:37 AM
Mises article about food storage as a means of investment:

http://mises.org/daily/5200/Guerrilla-Hoarding (http://mises.org/daily/5200/Guerrilla-Hoarding)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: gobblerblaster on April 12, 2011, 01:36:39 PM
I heard LDS will no longer be selling to non members. I was curious if that was just one area or if they were starting to see shortages. Anyone else know if this is true. A youtuber posted it.
,
I do not know if that is true or not but, I do know that they are experiencing some shortages because of the volume that members are buying at the moment. My folks where supposed to pick up some stuff back in March, at the OKC storehouse and the date was cancelled due to a shortage of most all their long term goods. They are re-scheduling it for July. It seems that many of the Mormons who have not heeded the advice to stock pile and are now trying to catch up as well as get their family in on it also. This is also coupled with the fact that everybody is a little more nervous than usual and are buying out of their anxiety due to the terrible economic and geo-political outlook.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on April 12, 2011, 03:29:58 PM


       I bought some from them last fall and they had decent prices for wheat and oats sealed in cans with free shipping! With The oil price jumping and fertilizer shooting up, well free shipping and cheap prices are going away and demand is up so I bet shortages are here to stay!

                          kiteflyer
 

,
I do not know if that is true or not but, I do know that they are experiencing some shortages because of the volume that members are buying at the moment. My folks where supposed to pick up some stuff back in March, at the OKC storehouse and the date was cancelled due to a shortage of most all their long term goods. They are re-scheduling it for July. It seems that many of the Mormons who have not heeded the advice to stock pile and are now trying to catch up as well as get their family in on it also. This is also coupled with the fact that everybody is a little more nervous than usual and are buying out of their anxiety due to the terrible economic and geo-political outlook.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LvsChant on April 13, 2011, 04:42:42 PM
OK, folks... it is really time to get going on food storage. My last visit to the Atlanta LDS warehouse was in November. At that time, the cost for a 25 lb bag of hard white wheat was under $6.00.

I just checked online to put another order together and found that the same item (5 months later) is almost double the cost at $11.45. I know they keep the costs as low as possible to help people store as much food for their families as possible.

Start now, if you haven't already... just saying.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: jasperg357 on April 13, 2011, 08:19:49 PM
OK, folks... it is really time to get going on food storage. My last visit to the Atlanta LDS warehouse was in November. At that time, the cost for a 25 lb bag of hard white wheat was under $6.00.

I just checked on line to put another order together and found that the same item (5 months later) is almost double the cost at $11.45. I know they keep the costs as low as possible to help people store as much food for their families as possible.

Start now, if you haven't already... just saying.

Just checked with the LDS Store House in Tucker Ga.today, they advised me that as of 3 weeks ago they no longer sell to non LDS members unless you are escorted there by a LDS Member.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on April 13, 2011, 08:27:50 PM
The majority of the posts on this topic refer to rising prices, but now we are seeing more relating to the second part of topic title "possible shortages". I haven't personally seen empty shelves but that might be due to the high prices, people are doing without. An odd thing I saw at Wal-Mart groceries: an entire 50' long aisle on side nothing but bottled water.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on April 14, 2011, 06:36:06 AM
this is not food shortage, but it is due to a crop shortage:

"The apparel industry was hurt after poor weather hurt cotton crops in China and Pakistan over the past several years and speculators then cornered the market. Demand far outstripped supply, and prices skyrocketed. Cotton hit a record high of $2.44 per pound on March 8: last year, cotton averaged about 77 cents a pound."

http://articles.boston.com/2011-04-07/business/29393358_1_cotton-apparel-prices-clothing-prices (http://articles.boston.com/2011-04-07/business/29393358_1_cotton-apparel-prices-clothing-prices)


and it also leads to shortages and less of a family's budget for non-necessities.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on April 14, 2011, 02:04:04 PM
Let's see what's going on globally:
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2011/04/14/Cuba-suffering-from-severe-drought/UPI-91691302786388/ (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2011/04/14/Cuba-suffering-from-severe-drought/UPI-91691302786388/)
http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2011/02/25/High-food-prices-threaten-seething-Mideast/UPI-89411298658667/?rel=65671301685171 (http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2011/02/25/High-food-prices-threaten-seething-Mideast/UPI-89411298658667/?rel=65671301685171)
http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2011/01/19/73-million-Afghans-are-food-insecure/UPI-83811295441965/?rel=89411298658667 (http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2011/01/19/73-million-Afghans-are-food-insecure/UPI-83811295441965/?rel=89411298658667)
http://youtu.be/h8L2TF7PDlI (http://youtu.be/h8L2TF7PDlI)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LvsChant on April 14, 2011, 10:30:22 PM
Just checked with the LDS Store House in Tucker Ga.today, they advised me that as of 3 weeks ago they no longer sell to non LDS members unless you are escorted there by a LDS Member.

Dang... I waited too long. Thanks for the information.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: eph2 on April 15, 2011, 12:41:21 AM
I bought wheat (alot of wheat!) only three weeks ago at the LDS warehouse.  Buying the same thing today would cost me 45% more!  Unbelievable!  I know that the LDS folks aren't selling to profit so that is pure inflation.  I'm not waiting on anything else!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: buffalosoldier on April 17, 2011, 01:18:55 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-16/zoellick-says-world-economy-one-shock-away-from-food-crisis-1-.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-16/zoellick-says-world-economy-one-shock-away-from-food-crisis-1-.html)


World Bank President Robert Zoellick.....estimated 44 million people have fallen into poverty due to rising food prices in the past year, and a 10 percent increase in the food price index would send 10 million more people into poverty. The United Nations FAO Food Price index jumped 25 percent last year, the second-steepest increase since at least 1991, and surged to a record in February.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Mr. Bill on April 18, 2011, 09:10:55 AM
Trucking company steals tomatoes, cucumbers, frozen meat (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Price-of-Tomatoes-Has-a-Lot-nytimes-1229836384.html?x=0)

Quote
...the criminals appeared to have set up a bogus trucking company with the intention of stealing loads of produce and other goods. ...

At each pick-up, a driver working for E&A showed up at the wheel of a tractor with a refrigerated trailer. The shippers loaded the pallets of tomatoes or the other goods into the trucks and the driver drove off. None of the loads got to their destinations. ...
Title: 14% raise in Wholesale foods just in Mar alone
Post by: hanzel on April 19, 2011, 07:35:59 AM

From Survivalblog

http://www.survivalblog.com/2011/04/inflation_watch_66.html (http://www.survivalblog.com/2011/04/inflation_watch_66.html)

An average of a 14% increase in one month for base wholesale foods.  I have attempted to calculate what this would mean in the course of the non inflation forward to Mar 2012 .. but the answer does not look correct since I am getting something like an inflation rate in food of 168%

Even the LDS Canneries report jumps as high as 49% in some items just from their Jan prices.

http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/prices-at-lds-canneries-show-inflation-for-food-up-between-11-and-49 (http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/prices-at-lds-canneries-show-inflation-for-food-up-between-11-and-49)
Title: Re: 14% raise in Wholesale foods just in Mar alone
Post by: Morning Sunshine on April 19, 2011, 08:07:08 AM
wow, scary articles.  sigh.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Nicodemus on April 19, 2011, 10:14:24 AM
I need to get more supplies into storage quickly. It's getting crazy out there.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chrisdfw on April 19, 2011, 11:09:23 AM
I need to get more supplies into storage quickly. It's getting crazy out there.

Yes, gonna go buy another 50 pounds of beans today, maybe rice too.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Slomad on April 19, 2011, 08:16:32 PM
Now's really the time to look into local smaller farming operations since they seem to be a little behind the curve on raising prices, at least so far. I bought a whole mess of wheat, barley, lentils, and beans from a local guy via a food co-op and paid a fraction of what it cost to order from bigger suppliers--even at wholesale prices.
Title: Re: 14% raise in Wholesale foods just in Mar alone
Post by: hanzel on April 21, 2011, 06:06:35 AM
wow, scary articles.  sigh.

Scary indeed.  I wish someone would do their own math on these two articles.  I either do not believe or do not like the numbers I am seeing ( food non-inflation in the 200% per year range )
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Pathfinder on April 21, 2011, 06:13:57 AM
Yes, gonna go buy another 50 pounds of beans today, maybe rice too.

I picked up a 50# bag of rice at Sam's yesterday, the price had jumped from $13-ish last year to almost $19. No shortage, lots of bags on the pallets, but a 50% price jump? Sugar was almost $10 for 25#, another big jump.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Greywolf27 on April 21, 2011, 08:37:49 AM
I bought a 50# bag of bread flour yesterday from Costco, $15.89, two bucks more then it was a couple of months ago.  At least I know bread will be on the menu for the forseeable future.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on April 21, 2011, 11:43:17 AM
I still don't see food shortages in the US as a problem and really don't see significant shortages in the future here.  What I do see is global prices rising causing more conflicts, more foreign than domestic, but certainly some increase in communities where money is already tight.  It's the belt tightening that concerns me.  It's the people who live on frozen food and fast food for the majority of their diets that don't have a clue how to prepare a meal with raw, whole foods that are truly on the bubble.  Those are the folks that have the fewest options in their own eyes.  They have to eat, but they also perceive that they have to make a car payment, car insurance, cell phone bill, utility bill, rent or mortgage, etc., without recognizing there are other places to save and their are other ways to put food on the table.

As Jack has brought up in recent shows, now is the time to consolidate and secure your positions.  If you want to hang on to a middle class way of life and you see food prices doubling or more in the next couple of years while energy prices also rise, you make decisions with that lens.  When choosing your next vehicle, you assume gas prices are going to rise.  When you buy a new furnace, you assume energy prices will continue to rise.  You plant that garden, you plant those trees, and you create new sources of productivity in your lives.  When you think about that new flatscreen, you consider what else could the resources be going toward.  If you choose to make the purchase anyway, you buy the size you need with the best energy efficiency rating. 

Prepping for the zombie apocolypse by storing food you'll eat if you must vs. creating production capacity and storing food you want to eat tonight for dinner (but will put away for tomorrow) is a risky proposition.  If you eat beans and rice, great.  But if it's the food of last resort for your family, think carefully about how much you put up, learn new preparation techniques you like today, and also store things you enjoy with a passion.  Heck, macadamia nuts are a part of my preps.  Why?  Because they make the best breading for trout I've ever had.  Otherwise, I hate trout, but it's all that grows in the local streams.  Prepare accordingly.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on April 21, 2011, 08:23:10 PM
Perhaps a subtopic to this one would be how to stretch your food reserves. I've found that to deal with avoiding redundant meals you can use the same rice & bean concoction by doing something as simple as using different sauces, broths, soup stocks. Smoked ham hocks are cheap and pump up the flavor. Sometimes I toast the rice before cooking. We never use white rice, brown is more nutritious and versatile.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chrisdfw on April 21, 2011, 11:06:20 PM
Perhaps a subtopic to this one would be how to stretch your food reserves. I've found that to deal with avoiding redundant meals you can use the same rice & bean concoction by doing something as simple as using different sauces, broths, soup stocks. Smoked ham hocks are cheap and pump up the flavor. Sometimes I toast the rice before cooking. We never use white rice, brown is more nutritious and versatile.

I love brown rice myself, but white rice stores longer. You can't put 150 pounds of brown rice away and expect it to be good in ten years.

I generally eat what I store, but there is a place for long term storage. I aim to have 2 years worth of the stuff I eat and rotate through it since most stuff keeps that long, but I also plan to have some long term storage that I don't use on a regular basis.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: sdcharger on April 22, 2011, 04:57:38 AM
Dry beans are great if you have a pressure cooker.  Otherwise, the fuel requirement to cook them becomes a serious drain.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on April 22, 2011, 06:56:34 AM
Dry beans are great if you have a pressure cooker.  Otherwise, the fuel requirement to cook them becomes a serious drain.

crockpot method:
place 2 c dry beans in a 2-qt crockpot.  rinse once, if you like, then fill to the top with clean water.  plug in and turn on.  leave overnight (or 8-10 hours).  rinse the finished beans, and use in recipes.  voila!  


http://www.squawkfox.com/2009/03/14/6-reasons-to-use-a-slow-cooker-or-crock-pot/ (http://www.squawkfox.com/2009/03/14/6-reasons-to-use-a-slow-cooker-or-crock-pot/)
Quote
Cooking with a crock is also very inexpensive when compared to the costs of running an oven. Using my Kill A Watt power meter, I’ve found that a crock pot consumes around 250 watts of power while an oven can draw up to 4000 watts – depending on how you’re cooking. This means that using a conventional electric oven for one hour can cost around 20 cents while operating a crock pot for 7 hours costs only 10 cents – an energy savings of 50%.

also, if needed, use a rocket stove to bring your pot of beans to a boil, then a cookbox, like the one in this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ-vgEUWZjc# (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ-vgEUWZjc#)
 and you can have soft beans with relatively low energy use.



Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chrisdfw on April 22, 2011, 07:24:43 AM
Dry beans are great if you have a pressure cooker.  Otherwise, the fuel requirement to cook them becomes a serious drain.

Soak them overnight, drain and replace the water. Then cook them in a solar oven using zero fuel. Just and idea.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on April 22, 2011, 01:50:39 PM
Soak them overnight, drain and replace the water. Then cook them in a solar oven using zero fuel. Just and idea.
Dry beans are great if you have a pressure cooker.  Otherwise, the fuel requirement to cook them becomes a serious drain.

These are both excellent ideas, which I do, but if you are cooking outside use a campfire style Dutch Oven and you can cook for free with a few chunks of wood in the grill underneath the oven and on its' lid.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on April 22, 2011, 01:55:33 PM
Back on topic: http://www.theblaze.com/stories/are-these-the-20-signs-that-point-to-a-global-food-crisis/ (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/are-these-the-20-signs-that-point-to-a-global-food-crisis/)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on April 22, 2011, 05:40:56 PM

 The worst case scenario would/will be with mother nature like Typhoons,earthquakes,droughts.floods and volcanoes and of course oil spills and radiation pollution can be dangerous as collateral damage. it seems like a perfect storm is upon us. Not much we can do but wait and prepare.

            kiteflyer

      http://1001zones.com/2010/12/potential-natural-disasters-2011/ (http://1001zones.com/2010/12/potential-natural-disasters-2011/)



Back on topic: http://www.theblaze.com/stories/are-these-the-20-signs-that-point-to-a-global-food-crisis/ (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/are-these-the-20-signs-that-point-to-a-global-food-crisis/)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cwdrlove on April 26, 2011, 02:11:31 PM
,
at the OKC storehouse and the date was cancelled due to a shortage of most all their long term goods. They are re-scheduling it for July. It seems that many of the Mormons who have not heeded the advice to stock pile and are now trying to catch up as well as get their family in on it also. This is also coupled with the fact that everybody is a little more nervous than usual and are buying out of their anxiety due to the terrible economic and geo-political outlook.

Well that certainly doesn't bode well for a noob prepper here in OKC.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: dep190 on April 28, 2011, 02:39:27 PM
today on the drudge report there is an article about crop problems due to Drought

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110428/us_nm/us_usa_drought
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on April 30, 2011, 06:12:05 PM


  Five Million dead chickens due to Tornadoes which means a shortage of chickens for awhile with prices and demand going up! Anybody seeing a pattern yet? Not global warming? Not 2012 Mayan doomsday? Over 300 dead people and things are just getting worst day by day! Maybe there is more here than meets the eye,don't you think?

              kiteflyer

     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704330404576291314033332864.html?mod=igoogle_wsj_gadgv1&
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on May 12, 2011, 09:10:18 AM
With the vicious dust storms in China right now (their own dust bowl) I went poking around and found an interesting article from the Chinese perspective:  Can the US feed China? – Expert worries Americans farming for Chinese (http://www.beijingtoday.com.cn/outlook/can-the-us-feed-china-expert-worries-americans-farming-for-chinese)

Probably the most interesting little blurb was this:
Quote from: Bejing Today
“Now, after 15 years of near self-sufficiency in grain, it seems likely that China will soon turn to the world market for massive grain imports, as it already has done for 80 percent of its soybeans.”

And, according to Brown, the US has no choice but to send it. “When the US Treasury Department auctions off securities every month to finance the US fiscal deficit, China has been a major buyer. It holds over $900 billion worth of US Treasury Securities. China is our banker.”
They've got a point.  As long as we're buying their goods and they hold US treasuries, we're going to sell.  We stop selling, they stop buying treasuries and we can't afford to run our government.  Hell of a barrel we put ourselves over.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mesta26 on May 12, 2011, 10:06:29 AM
I am not a gardener or even inclined in that direction but it was this thread that has convinced me that I had better learn quickly.  Whether or not "food shortages" are going to be a serious issue or not prices are going up and incomes seem to be going down, I am personally of the opinion that there will be less shortage and more people that simply can't afford to eat.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 12, 2011, 10:36:41 AM
70% of the world's grain is now wheat and we are heavily wheat dependent worldwide,  instead of other traditional grains such as barley, buckwheat, oats, rye, spelt and quinoa. And not all of the wheat produced is used for human consumption. Some of it is for livestock production for meat, milk and eggs. Industrial uses of wheat grain include starch for paste, alcohol, oil, and gluten. The straw may be used for newsprint, paperboard, and other products. I really like the "Wheatboard" and wish they would make more of it.

I know when I was taking my agricultural classes (2-4 hours a day for 4 years in the early 1980's), my Ag instructor even then said that we were overdue for a famine. One of his concerns was wheat. At that time we only had 5 major varieties of wheat grown worldwide (out of hundreds of varieties available) and if a blight had hit any one of those varieties, let alone all of those varieties, we would have been on world-wide starvation due to the dependency on wheat. I wonder what he would say about the "Terminator" wheat crops now.. which didn't exist then.

The Top Ten Wheat Producers in the World — 2010 Production Stats/2011 Projected Stats

1.   China - 112 million metric ton (15.4% of global wheat production)
Says the drought in the country’s main growing region may be prolonged. 42% of the total planted in the eight major producing provinces, has been hit by drought.

 2.  India - 79 million metric ton (11.5%)
India's wheat output in 2011 is likely to hit a record of 81.47 million tons, higher than last year's 80.71 million tons

 3.  United States - 68 million metric ton (9.1%)
 The 2011/12 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies with lower carryin and production than in 2010/11. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are down 14 percent from 2010/11. U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected at 2,992 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2010/11. According to NASS survey data (not final production data), estimates of this year's Soft Red Winter crop are smaller than last year's in total production in each of the states included in our sampling program. The NASS survey on production shows the estimated Missouri and Illinois crop at approximately 38% of last year's total bushels harvested. The smallest decrease compared to 2009 is Maryland at an estimated 84% of last year's total bushels harvested. Ohio, Kentucky and Virginia are estimated at 71%, 77%, and 74%, respectively, of last year's production. U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected at 2,992 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2010/11. I know alot of the grass seed farmers in my area have ripped out the grass seed production and has planted wheat on speculation. I think they did right.

 4.  Russia - 64 million metric ton (7.3%)
No export this year

 5.  France - 39 million metric ton (5.9%)
 In a “danger zone” as drought reduces the potential harvest. France just had its second-hottest April since 1900 and one of the driest since 1953, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

 6.  Canada - 29 million metric ton (4.1%)
 A recovery in production and improved wheat quality in Canada is also expected to increase export competition.

 7.  Germany - 26 million metric ton (3.8%)
The 2010/11 season saw a very poor start for German wheat. A heat wave followed by persistent rains rendered much of the country's spring crop suitable only for animal feed. The previous year the harvest came in at a healthy 25.2mn tonnes. They are now forecasting production in 2010/11 to fall to 23.2mn tonnes, down 7.9%

 8.  Ukraine - 26 million metric ton (3.8%)
No export this year 

 9.  Australia - 21 million metric ton (3.4%)
Floods and Droughts

 10. Pakistan    21 million metric ton (3.4%)
Conflicting reports. Some sources say they are in their 3rd bumper crop year and other reports say Pakistan's floods have destroyed more than 500,000 tons of seed wheat, besides ruining some land, on the eve of the planting season, extending the country's agricultural concerns into next year's crop.

This is a good read and dated May 11th, 2011, the next report will come out June 9th, 2011
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf (http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf)

Grass fires across the state of Missouri and Texas and are beginning to affect dairy farmers. While some pastures had already been supplemented with water from creeks, the drought has dried up many of the local creeks and prices of livestock feed have begun creeping upwards.

The Guardian reports that in 2007 approximately 40% of the world's agricultural land is seriously degraded.

Eastern Europe experienced more than 150 recorded famines between AD 1500 and 1700 and there were 100 hunger years and 121 famine years in Russia between AD 971 and 1974. Droughts and famines in Russia are known historically to have happened every 10 to 13 years, with average droughts happening every 5 to 7 years.

I actually have a corn variety in my collection from "The Year Without a Summer" that happened in 1816, in which severe summer climate abnormalities caused average global temperatures to decrease by about 0.7–1.3 °F, resulting in major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere. It is believed that the anomaly was caused by a combination of a historic low in solar activity with a volcanic winter event, the latter caused by a succession of major volcanic eruptions capped off by the Mount Tambora eruption of 1815, the largest known eruption in over 1,300 years.

(http://www.downtotherootsmagazine.com/Blogs/Corn_RoysCalais.jpg)

Photo Above: "Roy’s Calais" - Flint
Roy's Calais flint corn is one of Vermont's heirloom corns. It was grown by the Abenaki Indians, and was the only corn variety that survived the snows of June and hard freezes of July, 1816. It was grown by a family in Calais, Vermont since shortly after the Civil War, but was nearly lost to the world. Can be harvested in as little as 85 days.


With much of the southern, midwest and western states already experiencing or about to experience severe drought (or flooding), prices of these crops have also increased:

    * Corn: Up 63%
    * Wheat: Up 84%
    * Soybeans: Up 24%
    * Sugar: Up 55%

They are projecting that milk prices will be up, cow amounts will be down, and cow production for each cow will be up (more Bovine Growth Hormones being injected?)

As I learned about the "The Year Without a Summer"  (which I would never have known about if I had not added that heirloom corn to my collection and did some research on it), I am currently more concerned about the volcanic activity happening with seemingly increased activity and intensity and the countries which are all having issues at the same time. It looks like the perfect recipe for a famine to happen. It may not happen, but one more 'straw' and it very well could happen.

"As a result of the series of volcanic eruptions, crops in the above-mentioned areas had been poor for several years; the final blow came in 1815 with the eruption of Tambora. Europe, still recuperating from the Napoleonic Wars, suffered from food shortages. Food riots broke out in the United Kingdom and France, and grain warehouses were looted. The violence was worst in landlocked Switzerland, where famine caused the government to declare a national emergency. Huge storms and abnormal rainfall with floodings of the major rivers of Europe (including the Rhine) are attributed to the event, as was the frost setting in during August 1816. A major typhus epidemic occurred in Ireland between 1816 and 1819, precipitated by the famine caused by "The Year Without a Summer". It is estimated that 100,000 Irish perished during this period. A BBC documentary using figures compiled in Switzerland estimated that fatality rates in 1816 were twice that of average years, giving an approximate European fatality total of 200,000 deaths.

New England also experienced great consequences from the eruption of Tambora. The corn crop was grown significantly in New England and the eruption caused the crop to fail. It was reported that in the summer of 1816 corn ripened so badly that no more than a quarter of it was usable for food. The crop failures in New England, Canada and parts of Europe also caused the price of wheat, grains, meat, vegetables, butter, milk and flour to rise sharply."


Is it not said that history repeats itself? Even Mother Nature?

I don't think it will be any one thing which will cause problems, but as stated above in the quote, if something happens, it will be a multitude of things such as war, economic issues, crop failures lack of diversity, and the elements of natural Earth cycles.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 12, 2011, 11:10:14 AM
Let's see what's going on globally:

KABUL, Afghanistan, Jan. 19 (UPI) -- International partners teamed up with Afghan leaders to discuss the seriousness of food security issues in the country, the World Food Program said. Louis Imbleau, the WFP representative in Afghanistan, met with Afghan leaders in Kabul to discuss bilateral measures needed to address food shortages in the war-torn country.
"This groundbreaking meeting is a sign of how serious all parties are about the need to improve Afghanistan's food security," said Imbleau. WFP launched a three-year relief and recovery operation in Afghanistan in April. The agency said it was working on addressing immediate humanitarian needs for those affected by conflict in Afghanistan. By working with the government in Kabul, meanwhile, WFP is addressing long-term rehabilitation strategies in the country. WFP said its aim is to provide food assistance to the nearly 7.3 million Afghans suffering from a shortage of food. About 31 percent of the Afghan population was identified as "food-insecure" by a 2007 report on national risks. WFP during its Kabul meeting established a network of working groups to find common approaches to agricultural and nutritional development in the country.


"Wheat is the main staple crop there and Afghanistan needs about 5.2 million tonnes a year to meet demand in a country where two in three people do not get enough food to meet their nutritional needs. Afghanistan, now in its tenth year of conflict since the Taliban were ousted in 2001, is ranked as one of the world's poorest countries for food security, with crops often unusable due to seeding with improvised bombs."

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LvsChant on May 12, 2011, 11:15:30 AM
River flooding in Arkansas has potential to ruin rice crop for this year...
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 12, 2011, 11:21:52 AM
River flooding in Arkansas has potential to ruin rice crop for this year...

Arkansas Farm Bureau Director of Commodity and Regulatory Affairs Warren Carter estimated that the reduction in the state's rice area would be 300,000 acres, resulting in the loss of $300 million in rice production.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: technicalanarchy on May 14, 2011, 11:54:28 AM
Arkansas Farm Bureau Director of Commodity and Regulatory Affairs Warren Carter estimated that the reduction in the state's rice area would be 300,000 acres, resulting in the loss of $300 million in rice production.

Cedar

Keeping up (somewhat) with the flooding Mississippi and Texas wildfires is concerning I think. Honestly I'm not sure how much effect several million acres of lost crops will have. Corn, wheat, soy, rice, cotton.

Is it henny penny the sky is falling time? I check the commodity prices on corn, wheat, soy, cattle and a few other things on my Droid everyday for fun, prices incresed over the past year dramatically like 50 to 100% on most of the mentioned items. Will this millions of acres of loss make it go up even more or will China handle it?

Haven't heard anything from the "government" to speak of except a few weeks ago Hillary Clinton warned of a famine possiblity for the poorest nations due to rising prices. She said it wasn't as dire as in 2008 will this flooding and fire make the situation dire?

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 14, 2011, 02:32:47 PM
Honestly I'm not sure how much effect several million acres of lost crops [in Arkansas] will have. Corn, wheat, soy, rice, cotton.

The states that grow rice commercially in the USA
1. Arkansas. Grows 40% of the US production. Grows 1.5 million acres of rice yearly.
2. California. 500,000 acres of rice grown a year
3. Louisiana. 520,000 acres a year
4. Mississippi. 235,000 acres a year.
5 Texas 200,000 acres a year
6 Missouri. 190,000 acres

Cedar
Title: Prediction of food prices doubling by 2030?
Post by: Polar Bear on May 30, 2011, 06:01:10 PM
Food always goes up along with inflation and is defintely higher than it was in the 90's but is this really possible?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-13597657 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-13597657)

If so, I wonder how many more home gardens will be popping up?
Title: Re: Prediction of food prices doubling by 2030?
Post by: fritz_monroe on May 30, 2011, 06:15:51 PM
I'm kind of surprised that they think it will take almost 20 years to double. 
Title: Re: Prediction of food prices doubling by 2030?
Post by: Nicodemus on May 30, 2011, 06:20:43 PM
No kidding. Aren't some foods already up more than 20% in the last few years alone?
Title: Re: Prediction of food prices doubling by 2030?
Post by: d0j0w0 on May 30, 2011, 06:38:50 PM
Some foods are up 50% or more from last year.  Don't forget the little tricks like companies using smaller containers and then raising the price. It happens all the time. 
Title: Re: Prediction of food prices doubling by 2030?
Post by: Polar Bear on May 30, 2011, 08:02:54 PM
Thanks for the replies guys.  It let's me know that I put this in the right spot and posted it in the tight way along with helping with more viewpoints on the subject.

I'm going to try to expand my garden and grow some corn in September.  (Too hot here already in S.W. Florida)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: sdcharger on June 01, 2011, 10:47:50 AM
Rising costs have definitely changed the way we cook and eat.  Cheaper cuts of meat and more chicken for sure this year.  Steak is not on the menu as often either.

I plan on adding a freezer to take advantage of sales and store game meat.  I haven't been hunting much the last 10 years but I plan to change that this year.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Greywolf27 on June 01, 2011, 07:15:36 PM
Rising costs have definitely changed the way we cook and eat.  Cheaper cuts of meat and more chicken for sure this year.  Steak is not on the menu as often either.

I plan on adding a freezer to take advantage of sales and store game meat.  I haven't been hunting much the last 10 years but I plan to change that this year.

Same here, I used to eat red meat at least once a week, now, it has been about twice a month.  Whole chickens were $.75 / lbs last week, we picked up two.  We did purchase some tri tip, it was 56% "below normal price", came out to $3.99 /lbs.  I hate to say it, but I think the red meat below $2/lbs is gone (from the grocery store).
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: sdcharger on June 02, 2011, 08:33:18 AM
We've been doing pork chops on the grill and kabobs as well.  It's not steak but it will have to do :)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on June 02, 2011, 11:16:44 AM
Go coupon crazy, check supermarket for sales, or like a friend of mine order a side of beef.
My wife has found great deals on steaks.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on June 08, 2011, 10:28:04 AM
Mozambique's Struggles Fueled By The Price Of Bread (http://www.npr.org/2011/06/07/137012373/mozambiques-struggles-fueled-by-the-price-of-bread?sc=17&f=1001)

Quote
Bread was "the spark" for riots last September, says Mozambican journalist and publisher Fernando Lima. He explains that last year, when the Mozambican government announced that food subsidies would end, and the price of bread would jump 20 percent, hunger turned to rage.[/url]
They restored the subsidies to end the riots, but because of rising costs, it's likely they'll have to remove the subsidies again very soon.  ... and this is just one of many countries in the same boat.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Hare of Caerbannog on June 15, 2011, 04:27:06 PM
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=europe-braces-for-serious-crop-losses (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=europe-braces-for-serious-crop-losses)

Not a good situation for the folks in Europe.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LvsChant on July 10, 2011, 07:20:10 PM
I just read this article about the drought in Africa causing hundreds of thousands of people to flee to refugee camps:

http://lewrockwell.com/rep2/world-running-out-of-food.html

As mentioned in the article, countries like the U.S., Australia and other western countries will most likely not see the types of problems experienced over there, but still... common sense would say we would be wise to have an extra supply on hand.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on July 13, 2011, 10:08:31 PM
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=europe-braces-for-serious-crop-losses (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=europe-braces-for-serious-crop-losses)

Not a good situation for the folks in Europe.
Interesting, because I've been watching the Tour de France and it seems to be raining nearly every day.  Hopefully it's a sign the drought is beginning to loosen.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Greywolf27 on July 14, 2011, 08:59:43 AM
Interesting, because I've been watching the Tour de France and it seems to be raining nearly every day.  Hopefully it's a sign the drought is beginning to loosen.

Just because it is raining in one part of the country doesn't necessarily mean the drought is over.  It is raining and there is still snow on the ground in Mammoth CA, though in AZ it is super dry.  The different climates of France are one of the reasons they have such a diversity of wines, and variations of flavors in the same varietals.

I agree, I hope that is a good sign. 

P.S. how about that Jens Voigt!!!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on July 26, 2011, 09:32:39 AM
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2011-07-23-cnbc-dinner-table-inflation_n.htm

but no, inflation is stable.....
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on July 26, 2011, 08:29:21 PM
There is the drought in Texas going on right now. Nearly every county in Texas in bone dry forcing ranchers to thin their herds because the grass is dead, no nutritional value at all, plus the cost of importing grass and grain is cost prohibitive. Processing facilities are seeing double the cattle than usual. So short term we may see a drop in beef prices as supply exceeds demand but that's short term. Stock up because a mature cow only has one calf per year, it will take years for the ranchers to rebuild their herds from what they have left.
Title: Drought Withers Smallest Hay Crop in Century to Boost Beef Costs
Post by: jpommer on July 27, 2011, 07:29:33 AM
Yikes.

Story here (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-25/drought-withers-smallest-u-s-hay-crop-in-a-century-to-boost-cost-of-beef.html)
Title: Re: Drought Withers Smallest Hay Crop in Century to Boost Beef Costs
Post by: homeshow on July 27, 2011, 08:32:02 AM
Plenty of hay here.  Good spring we may even see 3 cuts this season.
Title: Re: Drought Withers Smallest Hay Crop in Century to Boost Beef Costs
Post by: jpommer on July 27, 2011, 08:37:56 AM
Hope there's enough to go around. We're in trouble out this way.
Title: Re: Drought Withers Smallest Hay Crop in Century to Boost Beef Costs
Post by: chris on July 27, 2011, 12:31:02 PM
Hay prices are killing me. Im having to stock up now, just in case it continues. So the hay I feed this winter will be high priced, even if the rains come. Bad year to raise cows.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: sdcharger on July 30, 2011, 01:19:12 AM
The coffee beans I buy have doubled in price in the last 2-3 years.  Not something I am willing to reduce or substitute either.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on July 30, 2011, 06:33:41 AM
Despite having great rainfall so far this summer in much of Colorado's hay growing areas, the prices are still up about a dollar to two dollars a bail because of increased demand from our neighbors to the south.  We were lucky and put up a lot last fall, but unfortunately we're about tapped now and shopping around again.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on July 30, 2011, 06:37:05 AM
The coffee beans I buy have doubled in price in the last 2-3 years.  Not something I am willing to reduce or substitute either.

I do not drink coffee, but I am pretty sure that I have read somewhere on the forum that whole unground coffee beans will last a while in light and oxygen free environment.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: jasperg357 on July 30, 2011, 08:19:36 AM
I do not drink coffee, but I am pretty sure that I have read somewhere on the forum that whole unground coffee beans will last a while in light and oxygen free environment.

I believe green unroasted coffee beans will last close to 10 years if properly stored.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 30, 2011, 08:26:27 AM
The USDA yesterday forecast retail-meat prices may increase this year as much as 7 percent and dairy products may jump 6 percent, more than the rate of overall food inflation at 3 percent to 4 percent.

Alfalfa went from $100 a ton to $160-190 a ton this year.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on July 31, 2011, 07:30:09 AM
The USDA yesterday forecast retail-meat prices may increase this year as much as 7 percent and dairy products may jump 6 percent, more than the rate of overall food inflation at 3 percent to 4 percent.

Alfalfa went from $100 a ton to $160-190 a ton this year.

Cedar
It's posts like this that make me glad I was lucky enough to draw four tags this year.  One cow elk, one doe deer and two doe antelope.  I'll be content to fill any of the three species, which should be a year's worth in the freezer. 
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 31, 2011, 08:13:32 AM
Hay and grain is going to be at a premium this year and my state is not bad off, but I saw cattle being fed round bales yesterday ALREADY. Most of the mid-west and Texas are in drought. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml Farmers/Ranchers are already dumping animals to the feedlots to get rid of them before winter. No one is building their herds and alot of their replacement heifers are being sold as well. The time to buy beef is now-ish while there might be a glut of them in the meat markets, before quantity lowers again. I expect this for at least 2 yrs. You might buy direct from the farmer for the best prices.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on October 13, 2011, 02:35:02 PM
Stock up on your peanut butter now! Prices will double by November.

http://moneyland.time.com/2011/10/12/prepare-to-shell-out-peanut-butter-price-hike-coming/ (http://moneyland.time.com/2011/10/12/prepare-to-shell-out-peanut-butter-price-hike-coming/)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: homeshow on October 13, 2011, 08:47:44 PM
Staley (corn gluten) went from $122 to over $210 per ton.  Every one around here is renovating old farm land.  Looks like small farmers might make some money for the next few years.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 07, 2012, 04:27:08 PM
4 months ago, a box of oranges at Costco was $6.99. Today it was $9.99. In the regular store it is $19.50 a box equivilent.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on June 07, 2012, 04:36:25 PM
wow - long time since this thread was updated.  was wondering if we had all gotten complacent about the increases.  sigh.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 07, 2012, 05:36:11 PM
I probably see it more than most folks, as I only go grocery shopping at a regular store every 3-4 months. I get sticker shock every time I go.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LvsChant on June 08, 2012, 07:31:54 AM
I admit, the regular prices in the stores definitely give me sticker shock. I have continued to use the couponing strategies to buy food at reasonable prices with pretty good success. For example... oranges are 59 cents ea at the local WM. On sale at one grocery store this week for 4/$1.00. Same idea for coffee and other shelf-stable foods...

We only buy fruits/veges that are on sale during a typical week. There are usually enough to suit us just fine. The kicker is that you do have to go shopping more frequently to get on board with the sale prices. Different things are the stores' loss leaders each week.

On the plus side for gardening, Mom's zucchini are producing enough to keep them and us fully supplied... can't wait until the peppers and tomatoes kick in. Next summer we'll have our own garden :)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on June 08, 2012, 10:40:10 AM
My wife noticed a large price increase at our military commissary recently. It's almost cheaper to shop off base.
Title: Corn crops - U.S. corn prices have soared 17 percent this month due to heat
Post by: Cedar on July 01, 2012, 11:59:55 AM
USDA on Monday rated 56 percent of the U.S. corn crop as good/excellent, the lowest rating in that category in late June since 1988.

Corn plants stop growing when temperatures go above 90 degrees. So far, 2012 has been hotter across a broader swathe of the Midwest than 1988. Rain in July will be absolutely key to the corn crop's fate for 2012. The National Weather Service is calling for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the next six to 10 days from Ohio to Nebraska, southward to Missouri.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/28/us-usa-crops-drought-idUSBRE85R06J20120628

Cedar

Title: Re: Corn crops - U.S. corn prices have soared 17 percent this month due to heat
Post by: cheryl1 on July 01, 2012, 12:30:13 PM
It will get worse. Field corn pollen begins to sterilize at 100 degrees. We are losing a % of yield every day it stays this hot. Soybeans are running over $17 a bushel, and will likely go higher.
Title: Re: Corn crops - U.S. corn prices have soared 17 percent this month due to heat
Post by: Cedar on July 01, 2012, 01:09:14 PM
http://www.agweb.com/article/crop_conditions_plummet_grain_prices_surge/

Cedar
Title: Re: Corn crops - U.S. corn prices have soared 17 percent this month due to heat
Post by: Frugal Upstate on July 01, 2012, 02:09:55 PM
Thanks for continuing to bring this kind of stuff to my attention.  I try to post about it and talk about it to family, on my blog etc. . . I keep hoping that mentioning very factual occurrences and their effects on the economy and system will get people thinking.  Sigh.  It's a hope anyway.
Title: Re: Corn crops - U.S. corn prices have soared 17 percent this month due to heat
Post by: cheryl1 on July 01, 2012, 02:28:11 PM
Personally, high grain prices are great for me.....as long as Midwest weather isn't the reason they are high. Sure wish we could have kept some more of our profit last year for a non-rainy day fund instead of having it taxed right out of our hands.
Title: Drought Affects Half of U.S., almost 1/4 of crops in bad condition
Post by: summer98 on July 08, 2012, 09:25:13 AM
And the drought is predicted to persist or intensify across much of the country. Get ready for higher food prices.

http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/05/12579687-drought-hits-56-percent-of-continental-us-significant-toll-on-crops?lite
Title: Re: Drought Affects Half of U.S., almost 1/4 of crops in bad condition
Post by: cheryl1 on July 08, 2012, 09:33:43 AM
The most recent ag report for Indiana has us at a 20% total loss so far, with another 50% of the crop in very poor condition. I don't know the exact numbers for soybeans, but they are similar.  :(

On the other hand, farmland will be cheaper to buy this fall.
Title: Re: Drought Affects Half of U.S., almost 1/4 of crops in bad condition
Post by: endurance on July 08, 2012, 10:05:19 AM
Gratefully, we're finally getting significant rain here in Colorado.  Seems like the monsoonal flow that had been held out of the state by a large stationary high pressure system has finally moved on.  There's some cause for hope.
Title: Re: Drought Affects Half of U.S., almost 1/4 of crops in bad condition
Post by: cheryl1 on July 08, 2012, 10:38:18 AM
Please send that rain east as quickly as possible!
Title: Re: Drought Affects Half of U.S., almost 1/4 of crops in bad condition
Post by: endurance on July 08, 2012, 11:08:08 AM
Please send that rain east as quickly as possible!
On its way

(http://icons.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xradarb4.gif)
Title: Re: Drought Affects Half of U.S., almost 1/4 of crops in bad condition
Post by: Oil Lady on July 08, 2012, 11:37:18 AM
25% is a pretty high percentage.

Riddle me this:

How much of "what's left" will we keep for ourselves, and how much will we CONTINUE to send overseas to Third World Nations for various UN initiatives?

The answer probably lies in whichever choice makes the most money.
Title: Re: Drought Affects Half of U.S., almost 1/4 of crops in bad condition
Post by: cheryl1 on July 08, 2012, 12:46:07 PM

The answer probably lies in whichever choice makes the most money.

Of course, farming is a business.
Title: Re: Drought Affects Half of U.S., almost 1/4 of crops in bad condition
Post by: summer98 on July 09, 2012, 10:07:06 AM
The most recent ag report for Indiana has us at a 20% total loss so far, with another 50% of the crop in very poor condition. I don't know the exact numbers for soybeans, but they are similar.  :(

I think it's worse than the report indicates as well; the national reports are usually a month or two behind. Alabama is also starting to really suffer, but we are forecast to get some rain this week.
Title: Re: Drought Affects Half of U.S., almost 1/4 of crops in bad condition
Post by: cheryl1 on July 09, 2012, 10:34:34 AM
We need rain, but the heat is killing us too. Field corn pollen sterilizes above 100 degrees, so even if we get good water from now on, we're still mostly screwed.
Title: Re: Drought Affects Half of U.S., almost 1/4 of crops in bad condition
Post by: heliotropicmoth on July 09, 2012, 01:57:43 PM
My garden is just now starting to show signs of needing water. Unfortunately no rain in the forecast for 4 days. Looks like I'm bringing out the hose tonight. Mulch, plus not watering all the time, has really made my homestead drought tolerant. I am sure some Permaculture water management methods could be positively applied to large scale agriculture. I wonder what it would take to mulch a large field of corn?
Title: Re: Drought Affects Half of U.S., almost 1/4 of crops in bad condition
Post by: summer98 on July 13, 2012, 12:55:35 PM
Update:
61% of lower 48 is in drought conditions.
1,000 counties in 26 states have been declared natural disasters.
30% of corn crops and 50% of pasture and rangeland are in poor or very poor condition
It's the worst drought in 24 years

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/13/us/midwest-drought/index.html?iref=allsearch
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: jm_sol on July 13, 2012, 05:53:26 PM
after watering the garden here in the houston texas area for the past 2 months (200$waterbill) we finally got rain. like 8 in in 2 days. now thinking i have my own rice paddy as the garden has flooded. gathered my sad tomato harvest in calf deep mud. will be a while before we can get in the fall garden soil amendments. the okra is jumpimg for joy but the weeks of heat and lack of water has severly stunted the cukes, peppers, squash, and beans. such is the way of mother nature.. too hot too dry too wet to cold. no wonder farmers in old photos looked so tired and wore out. and we have the option of farmer markets and CSA. i swear if we had to exist from this years garden we would be hurting.
Title: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: Cedar on July 13, 2012, 08:30:42 PM
Due to the drought in the Mid-West...

Corn prices at the Chicago Board of Trade rising 47%
Soybean prices risen 25%
Wheat risen 32.5% from a June 15 low of $6.2675 a bushel to Wednesday’s high of $8.31, just under the high at $8.46

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2012/07/11/focus-drought-in-u-s-midwest-wilting-crops-lowering-estimates-for-this-years-production/2/

It is not just the USA either.

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL6E8ID7GR20120713

http://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/News-Events/CROP-FORECAST-FOR-EUROPE

Cedar
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: Thox Spuddy on July 13, 2012, 08:39:42 PM
Corn is feed for cattle and poultry which means beef and chicken prices will skyrocket as many farmers will not be able to afford the feed and will just close out their livestock.

I haven't watered our garden in years but I broke down yesterday and soaked it for several hours. The sellers at the farmer's market are seeing their produce suffer and are bringing noticeably less to market. In Wisconsin.
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: Cedar on July 13, 2012, 08:55:32 PM
Milk will be down 20% too. Alfalfa crops are down in most places.

It will be gas due to ethanol, anything with corn syrup in it. Animal feeds including dog/cat food. Anything soy based, like tofu, soy milk, Anti-static agents, Soaps/shampoo/detergents, antibiotics.

Cedar
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: Roundabouts on July 13, 2012, 09:16:07 PM
Good to know.  Love those reports. Gives a good heads up on what to stock up on.  today I heard over and over on the news popcorn.  Of course according to the new report that means it will just cost more to go to the movies and get snacks.  Wow now wasn't that a good full report on the whole situation?  Oh well I already stocked up on stuff several months ago. 
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexasGirl on July 13, 2012, 10:54:43 PM
Jim,

When I lived in town with that heavy black gumbo clay, about the only effective garden arrngement was either a raised bed of organic matter that would hold needed moisture but drain excess, or container gardening with earthboxes that are immune to both drought and flooding.

Out NW of town, we got 9" so far this week.  Some places saw 12".  That's more rain than all of last year! 

For those not familiar, we normally get 48"-52" annual rainfall.  Even with the rain this week, the ground does not have deep moisture, and the water tables have not even begun to recharge from the 24 months of drought in Southeast Texas. 

~TG
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: Cedar on July 14, 2012, 05:07:15 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/13/us/midwest-drought/index.html?hpt=hp_bn1

1,000 counties in 26 states

Cedar
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: cheryl1 on July 15, 2012, 05:06:00 AM
http://www.agweb.com/article/10_corn_and_20_soybeans_to_pit_food_against_fuel/

$10 corn and $20 soybeans likely due to last season's drought in south america and tight world supples, wheat also expected to rise as livestock producers demand wheat in place of corn/beans

thank God for crop insurance

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sweethearts Mom on July 15, 2012, 01:20:15 PM
Went to my local walley world yesterday to buy a bottle of popping corn. Odd thing was they didn't have a single jar of any kind. They did have microwave kind but not the loose stuff. And not any place for it either.
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: Cedar on July 16, 2012, 07:38:27 PM
They are now saying worst drought since 1950's http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/16/us/us-drought/index.html?hpt=hp_c1
"71% of the country was classified as abnormally dry or worse as of June, that is double of last year"

6 week animated drought map http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/6_week.gif

Arkansas Department of Agriculture spokesman Zach Taylor. "It's bad," he said. "The week of July 4, we had 17,000 head of cattle sold. That may be a record."

The worsening drought caused Chicago Board of Trade spot corn futures prices to soar nearly 45 percent in only six weeks with the price on Friday coming within a few cents of the record high. Corn, soybean and wheat futures prices were sharply higher again on Monday as the drought continued to spread.

Cedar
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: Bradbn4 on July 16, 2012, 07:44:26 PM
Price changes are hitting the stores - report on Sams club today

Pinto Bean prices just went from from 28.xx to 45.xx
25 # sack of rice from 4.97 to 7.73

http://apnews.myway.com//article/20120716/DA02A9181.html
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: Cedar on July 16, 2012, 08:43:01 PM
Meat will be really low this next week or so. Stock up on it now for canning/freezing, as after this dump of animals into the food processing plants, it will go up high.

I interviewed kids at the fair yesterday and most did not even break even on feed costs. Market animlas went from $1.25 to $6/lb, most in the $2 range.

Cedar
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: cheryl1 on July 16, 2012, 10:54:59 PM
Anybody know how long feed lasts? I'm planning on stocking up on rabbit, chicken, and deer feed this week. I can store quite a bit critter free, I am wondering if pellets will either go rancid or somehow spoil.
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: Cedar on July 17, 2012, 12:01:48 AM
Keep it dry, keep it cool, keep vermin out of it.. and a year.

Cedar
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: summer98 on July 17, 2012, 05:58:23 AM
According to the latest Alabama crop report (heard on the radio), all of Alabama's non-irrigated corn crop has pretty much been lost. That's most of the state crop. Most other crops and pastures are in bad shape as well. We got a good soaking this past week, but it came too late for the corn.
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: Thox Spuddy on July 17, 2012, 01:48:46 PM
"Historic drought to bring higher food prices"

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/07/17/historic-drought-conditions-can-lead-to-higher-food-prices-experts-say/ (http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/07/17/historic-drought-conditions-can-lead-to-higher-food-prices-experts-say/)
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: Mister Dark on July 17, 2012, 08:50:29 PM
Just as an eyes-on-the-ground report, I have driven back and forth across the midwest along both I-40 and I-80 (and a few others) a lot more than I want over the last 3 weeks.  Anything that was alive, was only because of massive irrigation efforts.  The spigots were wide open on those massive wheeled sprinkler systems. Anything more than 20 feet away from those sprinklers was stunted and brown.   Not a good year for farmers in the midwest (or the Southeast for that matter)


I stocked up on anything wheat/corn/soy related today. From pasta to dogfood, we are going to see big price increases from this.
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: cmxterra on July 17, 2012, 09:41:31 PM
Time to head to Costco tomorrow and get some meat
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: Dawgus on July 18, 2012, 03:57:14 AM
 It's driving up more than corn. As many know, I've taken a job this summer on a produce farm. We've had to run irrigation pumps nearly every day for the past month, and that is affecting the costs here as well. We have to factor in the costs of fuel to run the pumps every day, along with the labor of laying out more piping than he has had to in the past. Though we're doing OK with running the irrigation, some of the farm ponds are getting very low.
Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: endurance on July 18, 2012, 08:32:32 AM
A lot of the same information in the Denver Post (http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_21089894) this week, but a few lines stood out to me.

Quote
Only in the 1930s and the 1950s has a drought covered more land, according to federal figures released Monday. So far, there is little risk of a Dust Bowl-type catastrophe, but crop losses could mount if rain doesn't come soon.
...
Climatologists have labeled this year's dry spell a "flash drought" because it developed in a matter of months, not over multiple seasons or years.

Read more: Worst drought in 55 years devastates corn crop - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_21089894#ixzz20z4tUEst
Read The Denver Post's Terms of Use of its content: http://www.denverpost.com/termsofuse

What strikes me as concerning is the tone that 'it's bad, but we've seen worse before' when this could just be the very beginning in a several year drought.  Just because it started suddenly doesn't mean it will necessarily go away just as quickly.  While we've seen some relief in the front range of Colorado with higher humidity and more regular thunderstorms, the evidence indicates that much of the country hasn't had relief and crops are still in serious jeopardy this year. 

It's definitely a 'disaster' worth keeping an eye on.  Year over year failures will really have an impact on fuel and food prices and make third-world hunger problems even more critical than they are today.

Title: Re: Crop reports as of this week
Post by: Cedar on July 18, 2012, 05:08:10 PM
They have been talking food shortages 2 days now
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/18/worsening-drought-puts-food-supply-at-risk/

Milk & Cheese prices to go up
http://www.indystar.com/usatoday/article/56321228?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|IndyStar.com|p

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on July 19, 2012, 05:38:15 PM

 Well as old as this thread is,2009 many should have stock up by now,I bought a case of corn meal sealed in cans this spring so at least I may weather the drought but then you never know.The climate is changing and if America's bread basket doesn't rebound we are in big trouble. 2012 is going to be a bad year for all of us.Forewarned is forearmed! The best to all here and pray for relief and give thanks to our bounty and blessing here in America. The third world will pay with their life with the young and old. Russia too is getting hit in their bread basket also!

                kiteflyer
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 19, 2012, 05:54:54 PM
My friends quail feed for his layer flock went up 15% in 2 weeks

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on July 21, 2012, 10:33:06 AM
After reading this thread and all the great articles you guys have been posting I did a bunch more digging for data/quotes and  wrote a post today about this topic--aimed at the grasshoppers in my audience (my blog is about frugal living, not prepping):

Historic Drought http://www.frugalupstate.com/?p=10468 (http://www.frugalupstate.com/?p=10468)

I just hope it gets some folks out there thinking. . .
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on July 23, 2012, 10:20:02 AM
Oh, and I was just reading that here in NY the apple, peach, & grape (wine) crops were severely compromised by frosts. 

Quote
   Some apple growers have lost more than 80 percent of their crops. Local peaches and cherries will be even more scarce. Strawberries and blueberries were not affected.

That means that prices for apples, peaches, nectarines and cherries will likely be higher. And it’s also possible that stores that have been committed to offering “local” produce will have to put out peaches and cherries from Pennsylvania and apples from Washington.

and

Quote
some vineyards along Lake Erie have lost their entire crops. But there, those closer to the lake suffered less damage from the frost. The center lost only 5 percent of its crop, he said.

Grape growers could lose $25 million in crop income, the center reported.

Article: http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2012/06/expect_slim_picking_for_apples.html (http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2012/06/expect_slim_picking_for_apples.html)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on July 23, 2012, 01:39:07 PM
Our local orchards have no apples this year. What didn't get killed by frost withered in the dry heat.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: rikkrack on July 25, 2012, 10:05:26 AM
Frost took most of my fruit tree crop. 20 apple blossoms down to 2 apples on tree
Tree full of peach blossoms to none now
Tree full of pear buds to none

Our sweet corn was terrible due to lack of rain, we harvested first crop, and decided to give rest to chickens, at least won’t go to waste

Most of in ground garden doing terrible (except tomatoes). Thankfully had greenhouse and aquaponics system or I would have had almost no crops this year.

The wife, kids and I play a new game when going places on who is an ant and who is a grasshopper by how many green lawns we see driving through the neighborhoods. Cracks us all up. Now that they passed law in our area about watering lawns and washing cars might have to find other ways to amuse ourselves as all the “pretty” lawns start to turn brown.

With drought and late frost taking out much of the crops, prices now up, which means people can afford less, and in turn prices go up more to cover costs.

Since we as a nation export much of what we grow how is that going to trickle down to other items, and borrowing/lending? Will there be bail outs the way the auto industry, and mortgage industry was bailed out? Of course not, well at least for mom and pop farmer they won’t. Who will buy their land when they have to sell, big AG business, for more GMO laden food! Yeah
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on July 25, 2012, 11:07:53 AM
More bad news on this years crops.
http://www.agprofessional.com/news/USDA-Thirsty-crops-deteriorate-further-desperate-for-rain-163459096.html?ref=096 (http://www.agprofessional.com/news/USDA-Thirsty-crops-deteriorate-further-desperate-for-rain-163459096.html?ref=096)
 
(http://media.dairyherd.com/images/CropProgress-July232012.gif)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LvsChant on July 25, 2012, 09:55:59 PM
NKAWTG: Great map... very interesting to watch the progression. So sad to see the crop failures.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: inthego on July 26, 2012, 08:59:12 AM
Yes, what we need is rain.  Rain makes corn, corn makes whiskey, whiskey makes...
NKAWTG: Great map... very interesting to watch the progression. So sad to see the crop failures.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Greywolf27 on July 26, 2012, 09:10:26 AM
Yes, what we need is rain.  Rain makes corn, corn makes whiskey, whiskey makes...

My baby is a feeling a little friskay!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 01, 2012, 01:20:37 PM
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/sotc/drought/2012/06/pasture-range-statewide-conditions-0701.pdf

Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on August 01, 2012, 02:02:57 PM
As everyone is aware (I hope) of the record drought in progress throughout most of the country, it got me thinking about the next step in food production Winter Wheat.
What will the dry soil conditions for the upcoming Winter Wheat planting season do to production next year.
I'm betting on wheat shortages next year
As a by product of the drought, ranchers may be sending their livestock to market early because of the high price of feed and the shortage of grass and water.
So beef prices might dip a bit, followed by a jump in prices as the surplus comes down.

Now all we need during food shortages is another Carrington Event....
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 01, 2012, 08:46:02 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/01/us/us-usda-disaster-zones/index.html?hpt=us_t2

the USDA expanded emergency disaster assistance Wednesday to allow for haying and grazing on 3.8 million acres of protected conservation areas, once considered off-limits.

"As of July 17, approximately 88 percent of the corn crop was in regions impacted by drought." About 75% of all food found in the supermarket contains corn, officials say.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 01, 2012, 08:47:48 PM
Newest time lapse map...

http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2012/07/us/drought/index.html?hpt=us_t5

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on August 01, 2012, 09:05:42 PM
I'm really surprised to see the maps continuing to show things as exceptionally dry in Colorado or the crop conditions continuing to deteriorate.  We've have very good rains since about the 4th of July.  Consistent productive thunderstorms to the point where our fire danger is down to low; a level hardly ever attained between May and September.  I've done one light watering in the last two weeks in my garden and things are going gangbusters. 
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on August 02, 2012, 09:23:00 AM
I'm really surprised to see the maps continuing to show things as exceptionally dry in Colorado or the crop conditions continuing to deteriorate.  We've have very good rains since about the 4th of July.  Consistent productive thunderstorms to the point where our fire danger is down to low; a level hardly ever attained between May and September.  I've done one light watering in the last two weeks in my garden and things are going gangbusters.
Maybe the rain wasn't at the right time for the field crops, or the heat was too high during a critical period. Field crops have different requirements than garden plants. Just a thought
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexasGirl on August 02, 2012, 10:46:48 PM
I'm really surprised to see the maps continuing to show things as exceptionally dry in Colorado or the crop conditions continuing to deteriorate.  We've have very good rains since about the 4th of July.  Consistent productive thunderstorms to the point where our fire danger is down to low; a level hardly ever attained between May and September.  I've done one light watering in the last two weeks in my garden and things are going gangbusters.

Endurance,

The map shows SE Texas as not being in drought conditions, despite being 14" behind on rainfall since Jan 1st.  It's been weeks since we had rain at my place.  I question what they base their drought assessments on.

~TF
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cohutt on August 03, 2012, 08:21:15 PM
:(


Most of the people who would possibly ever care to read this thread probably will have food because we are aware and have the wits and/or resources to do so.  Or perhaps we were just dumb lucky enough to be born in a wealthy wasteful society and will manage to be floated along, albeit at a higher cost.

But the poor- not the "poor" in the US, but the real poor of the world, those for which food costs are 40 or 50% of what they can meagerly scrape up to support themselves if they are lucky, have no ability to absorb higher costs.  Higher costs and shortages don't mean they have to eat beans and rice for a while; beans and rice are what they could hardly afford before.  It means violence or starvation or both.


The following is from a multi point summary contained in a proprietary research report that I can't post here in its entirety; the subject is primarily the 5 years we've been in this developing food crisis that is likely just getting ramped up:

Quote
7.  Many of these increasing difficulties were reflected in the original 2008 food crisis and the 2011 rebound.
The last six weeks’ price rise is more threatening because it occurred despite very much larger plantings than
were available in 2008. Global demand is now so high and rising so fast and reserves are so low that price
sensitivity to weather setbacks has become extreme.

8. It seems likely that several countries dependent on foreign grain imports have in fact never recovered from
the 2008 shock. Countries like Egypt saw the percent of their consumer budget for food rise to 40%. At
this level, social pressures may be at an extreme and probably have already contributed to the Arab Spring.
Any price increases from here may cause social collapse and a wave of immigration on a scale never before
experienced in peacetime. Another doubling in grain prices would be catastrophic.

9. Strong countermeasures to prevent a food crisis would be effective in curtailing the current crisis and
preventing the development of a much greater crisis, but these measures will likely not be taken. This is
because the price signals for the rich countries are too weak – they can afford the higher price – and there is
inertia in all parts of the system. Also, the problems of malnutrition in distant countries are not generally felt
as high-order priorities in the richer countries.

10. If food pressures recur and are reinforced by fuel price increases, the risks of social collapse and global
instability increase to a point where they probably become the major source of international confrontations.
China is particularly concerned (even slightly desperate) about resource scarcity, especially food.

Yeah it is just getting better isn't it?

Cost of livin' gets so high,
Rich and poor they start to cry:
Now the weak must get strong;
They say, "Oh, what a tribulation!"
Them belly full, but we hungry;
A hungry mob is a angry mob.
A rain is fall, but the dirt it tough;
A pot is cook, but the food no 'nough.

Bob Marley- Them Belly Full
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: DrJohn on August 03, 2012, 09:22:16 PM
You just cannot make stuff this scary up.  If the rising cost and shortage of food in the 2nd and 3rd world cause mass emigration, where are thy going to go?  And if China is so worried about resources, as they should be, talk about really scary, a billion hungry and angery people, what are they capable of doing?  Bigger garden next year for sure (amongst other things!).
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 10, 2012, 02:59:38 PM
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e37a491a-e2e1-11e1-a463-00144feab49a.html#axzz23B8Wrzbf

The surge in prices has revived memories of the 2007-08 food crisis, when the high cost of food triggered riots in more than 30 countries from Bangladesh to Haiti.

“We’re going to see very high prices,” said Joseph Glauber, USDA chief economist.

The failure of the US corn crop will hit the world’s food manufacturers, including Nestlé, Kraft, and Tyson, who have already warned that they will pass on higher prices to consumers.


High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e37a491a-e2e1-11e1-a463-00144feab49a.html#ixzz23BAKvaWL

Eyeing low supplies, the USDA forecast sharply lower consumption and exports, with the meat industry hit the hardest. Domestic red meat and poultry supplies will decline next year, the department said.


The worst U.S. drought in more than half a century has battered the corn and soybean crops with larger losses than expected, causing domestic stockpiles to shrivel to near bare-bones levels, government data showed on Friday.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 10, 2012, 03:20:38 PM
http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-08-10-2012.pdf

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 10, 2012, 03:40:41 PM
And I just found this... this is our 'food reserves'... which the government is SUPPOSED to have on hand....

http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/wid2a.pdf

http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/sellingtogovernmentusersguide.pdf

COMPARE
2012 http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/wid2a1207.pdf
2002 http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/wid2a0206.pdf
I also went through each July for each year. Severely changes after 2007.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-09/world-wheat-soybean-corn-reserves-dropping-as-demand-grows-crops-falter "Global inventories of wheat and soybeans are falling more than forecast, while U.S. corn reserves head to a 16-year low, as farmers fail to keep pace with rising demand for food, livestock feed and biofuel. " This was written in March 2012, before the drought started.

AND, then there was this... http://www.iatp.org/files/2012_07_13_IATP_GrainReservesReader.pdf

Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: archer on August 10, 2012, 03:49:33 PM
can we say 'The Hunger Games'?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Outdoorfury on August 10, 2012, 03:56:43 PM
damn first time i have read this and it is depressing. Time to store more food.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 10, 2012, 05:19:21 PM
Yeah.. I am still working on this one today...

Beef http://beefmagazine.com/cattle-prices/expanding-drought-pushing-more-cows-slaughter

(http://beefmagazine.com/site-files/beefmagazine.com/files/uploads/2012/07/july%2024%20drought%20map.jpg)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: archer on August 10, 2012, 05:27:19 PM
getting scary Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 10, 2012, 05:33:27 PM
SOME good news for us short-term.. start buying beef now to January. Can it, freeze it, whatever....

http://beefmagazine.com/disaster/more-ranchers-culling-cows-drought

Somewhere in my travels today, an article said there are 800,000 less calves this year. The highest the calf shortage has ever been was 900,000 so we are close.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 10, 2012, 05:45:54 PM
Charts.. I like charts... This is the Mundi Index which I had been kinda looking for all day.

Beef http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=beef
Hogs http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=pork
Chicken http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=chicken

Wheat http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=wheat
Corn http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=corn
Rice http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=rice Not sure this one is right for consumers
Soybeans http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=soybeans
Barley http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=barley

Sugar http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=sugar
Cocoa http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=cocoa-beans
Coffee http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=other-mild-arabicas-coffee

Oranges http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=oranges

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on August 10, 2012, 08:22:38 PM
I actually logged in to see if there was any info on the status of our what crop and of course Cedar had already addressed it. 
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on August 11, 2012, 12:00:05 PM
A local chicken farm lost 80,000 chickens to heat stroke last week (ish). I wonder how widespread that problem is as well.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on August 11, 2012, 05:44:56 PM
uh. . . that should have read "wheat" not "what". 
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on August 11, 2012, 06:04:25 PM
A local chicken farm lost 80,000 chickens to heat stroke last week (ish). I wonder how widespread that problem is as well.

I am googling right now for news of "80,000 chickens." Working on getting a link for your American heat wave chicken death story. But until I find YOUR story, I want to point to this other story about a recent heat wave-induced chicken die-off in South Korea. But the number of poultry deaths there exceeded a quarter milllion in a 2-week time period.

http://view.koreaherald.com/kh/view.php?ud=20120806001243&cpv=0
 
Quote
Heat wave in South Korea kills more than 341,000 poultry

2012-08-06 

...

The scorching temperatures killed 330,500 chickens and 10,700 ducks as well as 96 pigs across the country between July 20 and Aug. 6, said Kim Il-soo, an official of the Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

Last week, a power outage stopped a ventilation system at a farm in Goesan, killing about 10,000 out of 80,000 chickens, according to local officials....







::EDIT::





Sorry, Cheryl. I am striking out in my effort to find a story taking place in America where a mass chicken die-off resulted from the heat. Only this Korean story.  Do you recall where you heard it or read it?? Are you sure it was an American chicken die-off? 




Meanwhile I found this Wall Street Journal blogger who commented on the Korean poultry die-off, and he had a few very eye-opening factoids to report: 


http://blogs.wsj.com/korearealtime/2012/08/06/power-supplies-short-as-heatwave-takes-toll/


-- On Sunday, the mercury hit 36.7 Celsius in Seoul – the hottest day in 18 years.

-- The Ministry of Knowledge Economy this morning notched up its power shortage alert to the same level that was seen during a rolling blackout last September, citing a surge in energy consumption due to the heat wave.

-- To help with power supplies, the government will restart the country’s oldest nuclear-power plant this week following a five-month shutdown following a brief power outage in February.

-- The unusual heat has taken its toll. So far 11 people are reported to have died and more than 660 have been admitted to hospital due to heat-related symptoms.

-- Over 100,000 livestock, mostly chicken and duck, have died in the intense heat, according to the Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

-- Apartment complexes in southern Seoul suffered a brief blackout on Sunday night. About 3,000 households were affected, though no serious damage was reported.

-- A recent study by the National Institute of Meterological Research cited heat as the single biggest natural phenomena, including natural disasters, causing human death in South Korea. The research tracked damage done by natural disasters, including floods and typhoons, from 1901 to 2008 and found that the natural-disaster-induced death toll was the highest in 1994 when a heat wave took 3,384 people’s lives. That was more than triple the number in 1936 when 1,104 people died due to a typhoon. In the summer of 1994, the temperature surpassed 33 Celsius for 29 successive days.




.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: JC2 on August 11, 2012, 10:54:23 PM
My loving wife makes and sends me homemade jerky occasionally. The last roast she bought (http://www.harvestinggracefarm.com/images/Around_The_Farm/MeatPrice.JPG)
 Of course last year there was a large beef sell off because of the hay (which i think has already been forgotten by most) and now the sell off this year. I hate to see the beef prices next year.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexasGirl on August 11, 2012, 11:21:56 PM
I canned 72 pints of beef in the last month, much was hamburger meat.  Our local grocer had a loss leader; lean ground chuck for $1.67/ lb.  The meat girl grinds it fresh in the store, so you can see what goes into it.  Two 5-6oz pieces of NY Strip fit in a widemouth pint jar, NY's were on for $2.97/ lb one week.

How long can we expect prices to stay down?  September?  October?

~TG
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on August 12, 2012, 04:41:24 AM
Sorry, Cheryl. I am striking out in my effort to find a story taking place in America where a mass chicken die-off resulted from the heat. Only this Korean story.  Do you recall where you heard it or read it?? Are you sure it was an American chicken die-off?  [/quote]

I don't think it made the news. My husband was at a local farmer's meeting and had a conversation with someone who had to spend 3 DAYS hauling dead chickens out of cages. We have some large hog and chicken farms in the area here. I don't know which farm it was, the guy just said it took him and his men three long hot days to clean up the mess, and they lost about 1/3 of their stock.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on August 12, 2012, 05:58:24 AM
Quote
Sorry, Cheryl. I am striking out in my effort to find a story taking place in America where a mass chicken die-off resulted from the heat. Only this Korean story.  Do you recall where you heard it or read it?? Are you sure it was an American chicken die-off? 

I don't think it made the news. My husband was at a local farmer's meeting and had a conversation with someone who had to spend 3 DAYS hauling dead chickens out of cages. We have some large hog and chicken farms in the area here. I don't know which farm it was, the guy just said it took him and his men three long hot days to clean up the mess, and they lost about 1/3 of their stock.

Wow. Okay. i TOTALLY get it now. (And I'm kinda pissed that the MSM is not reporting on it. Thank God for the internet.)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 12, 2012, 10:23:13 PM
http://article.wn.com/view/2012/07/03/Virginia_poultry_farms_report_hundreds_of_thousands_birds_dy/
2012-07-03: HARRISONBURG, Va. (AP) — Hundreds of thousands of chickens and turkeys have died in Virginia since a violent storm swept through the state, snuffing power in its path. President Hobey Bauhan of the Virginia Poultry Federation says the poultry died from extreme heat after the storm cut power to fans that cool chicken and turkey houses. Most of the poultry losses occurred in the Shenandoah Valley, but producers in other parts of the state such as Southside also reported the death of birds. Virginia is among the biggest poultry producers in the nation, raising 250 million chickens and up to 18 million turkeys.

http://www.agweek.com/event/article/id/18765/
WICHITA, Kan. — A heat wave that has pushed temperatures well over 100 degrees has killed tens of thousands of turkeys and chickens in Kansas and North Carolina and left farmers across the lower part of the country struggling to cool off their flocks.

In North Carolina, about 50,000 chickens died at a farm after the power went off for less than an hour. In Kansas, one couple lost 4,300 turkeys that took 26 hours to bury.


http://article.wn.com/view/2012/07/07/Poultry_farmers_in_Delaware_Maryland_Virginia_brace_for_chic/



and found this in my travels.. http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/26439/midwest-drought-costs-georgia-poultry-producers-big-bucks

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 12, 2012, 10:58:56 PM
South Korea
800k birds
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-08/heat-wave-in-south-korea-kills-poultry-threatens-drinking-water.html

India
2 million birds dead
http://www.worldpoultry.net/news/heat-wave-takes-toll-on-indian-poultry-industry-10496.html

Hungary
The heat wave is also taking a toll on livestock farmers, costing poultry farmers alone about HUF one billion a week.
http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/26203/hungary-heat-wave-could-cost-farmers-billions

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on August 13, 2012, 06:32:22 AM
wow, when it gets too hot here, my girls go find a nice tree to sit under or take a refreshing (???) dirt bath.  one more reason raising your own is healthier and nicer to the chickens.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on August 13, 2012, 07:29:11 AM
Thanks for all those awesome links, Cedar.

Meanwhie, I don't want to undermine the seriosness of this travesty --all those poor suffering animals, all those farmers who have lost income (I hope some or all of them had some kind of insurance).

But ....

In the midst of this poultry catastrophe, I can't help but recall these two old Colbert Report video clips from January of 2009 (over 3 years ago). 

Enjoy.  8)

Part 1:
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/217076/january-28-2009/countdown-to-atomic-disaster---the-wing-ageddon

Part 2:
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/217138/january-29-2009/sport-report---chicken-wing-spokesman-richard-lobb

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 13, 2012, 10:34:00 AM
wow, when it gets too hot here, my girls go find a nice tree to sit under or take a refreshing (???) dirt bath.  one more reason raising your own is healthier and nicer to the chickens.

When I was looking up those other sites, alot of the small poultry homeflock raisers were losing chickens from the heat too..

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 13, 2012, 11:39:25 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/13/us-drought-canada-crops-farmers_n_1771950.html

Already, feedlots in Texas are taking the rare step of buying usually much higher-priced Canadian wheat to fatten cattle, given limited supplies of U.S. corn available.

Southeastern U.S. chicken producers are looking to import corn from Brazil, while feedlots in the U.S. plains are looking to Canada for wheat and to Brazil and Argentina for corn as substitutes for U.S. corn, Miller said.

"..... I would say we won't have a huge supply of feed wheat, but it's just a matter of pricing," he said. "Most of it should go into food channels but you never know."


Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 13, 2012, 11:40:57 AM
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 13, 2012, 12:12:24 PM
“Near term, there is an adequate supply of meat from all species,” Michael Martin, a spokesman for Minneapolis-based Cargill, said in an e-mail. “As we move into 2013, the supply of beef, in particular, could be constrained by the U.S. herd being the smallest in 60 years.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-10/ranchers-send-cows-to-slaughter-as-u-s-drought-sears-pasture.html

Cedar -- who is researching this for the paper and adding stuff in here which is why there is so much of me posting stuff the last 2 days on this subject

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 13, 2012, 12:37:10 PM
Now they are talking 8% food cost increase http://extension.missouri.edu/news/DisplayStory.aspx?N=1488 not just 3-4%

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 13, 2012, 01:24:49 PM
And buy your gardening seed now for 2013.. this below is from Christy from Seed Saver's Exchange

"The heat and drought is presenting quite the challenge at Seed Savers Exchange! We're having a difficult time providing supplemental water to the different garden plots, and plenty of the plants just cannot handle the heat. In the Diversity Garden, we're watering as much as we can - but even then, the beans haven't been producing a lot. I'm also doing the Corn Hand Pollination, and our corn is suffering a great deal - many of the varieties are shorter and having a hard time producing viable tassels and ears at the same time. We'll see what the final affect was at the end of the year!"

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Outdoorfury on August 13, 2012, 01:36:16 PM
thanks cedar. Plus 1 for always being awesome and giving sweet info.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on August 13, 2012, 03:16:46 PM
And buy your gardening seed now for 2013.. this below is from Christy from Seed Saver's Exchange
. . . Cedar

Cedar:

#1-wow, I hadn't even thought about it effecting the seed supply.
#2-Researching for the paper? Do you write for the paper or are you putting in an editorial? And while I'm asking-what the heck is gleaners?
#3-Thanks so much for continuing to post these links.  I used quite a bit of the ones you've shared in the post on my blog (which I think woke up a few folks) and have continued to share things on my Facebook page-I get a lot of "Wow, I had no idea" type comments from readers.  Still.  It's great to have reliable factual links to share with them.  The more folks who wake up and stock up, the better.

Jenn
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 13, 2012, 03:51:20 PM
#2-Researching for the paper? Do you write for the paper or are you putting in an editorial? And while I'm asking-what the heck is gleaners?

I work as the agricultural reporter for 2 local newspapers for the last 2 years, the editor for a newspaper in Canada for 2 years before I moved back south and for a homesteading magazine for 7. I am a full time employee of all, not a freelance. Currently 90% of what I write about for the papers is always on agriculture, unique crops and how agriculture effects us, and about farm families in our community.

Gleaners is explained in various posts here on TSP I have done from time to time, but in a nutshell... "Gleaning goes back to ancient days where it was the of collecting of leftover crops from farmers' fields after the main harvested was in. Gleaners today also take in unwanted household items, building supplies, as well as shortdated groceries or foods which have damaged boxes so the item did not sell, but the contents are still perfect. Gleaners also takes their truck and their volunteers out to the fields from spring until autumn to pick from local farmers who have generously donated the crops for various reasons. Some of the crops have been picked already and there are more fruits or vegetables still in the field, or inclimate weather has prevented those crops to be harvested by machine. Some of the farmers plant a certain amount just for the Food Bank and Gleaning groups. "

We are the labor force who brings the crops into the Food Banks. Traditionally, those who pick get to take 50% home and then 50% goes to the Food Bank.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on August 13, 2012, 10:07:12 PM
Cedar PLEASE let us know when you have posted this news piece you are writing about the US and global agricultural industries and this terrible drout. I MUST read it.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Prepper Recon on August 13, 2012, 10:11:03 PM
I hadn't even thought about the drought affecting seeds. Thanks!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 14, 2012, 07:55:06 PM
Cedar PLEASE let us know when you have posted this news piece you are writing about the US and global agricultural industries and this terrible drout. I MUST read it.

I am not necessarily writing one on this subject at this time, but I keep track of trends, so I know what I need to write on.  The current one I am working on is ...  The Oregon Department of Agriculture is railroading a policy change to accommodate the biofuel industry at the cost of seed-growers and fresh vegetable producers. The Oregon Department of Agriculture intends to file for a temporary rule that places the unique and world-renowned Willamette Valley along with its abundance of vegetable-producers and seed-growers at serious risk of contamination and ruination.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 15, 2012, 10:31:48 AM
Weekly Weather & Crop report
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdf

Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: archer on August 15, 2012, 10:39:17 AM
thanks Cedar.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 15, 2012, 10:39:38 AM
I messed up. I should have done the daily price as well, so to be able to see how much it is changing daily.

    *Wheat ticks up after sliding 8 pct in 3 sessions
    * Russia's wheat sales to Egypt pressure prices
    * Soy, corn markets underpinned by tight supplies

U.S. wheat edged up on Wednesday, after suffering its biggest three-day decline since July last year in a selloff triggered by Russia's exports to Egypt in two tenders this week, which eased concerns over supplies from the Black Sea region. Corn and soybeans rose, underpinned by tightening global supplies following the U.S. grain belt's worst drought in more
than five decades.


Egypt, the world's largest wheat buyer, bought 120,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia and Ukraine on Tuesday, three days after buying 120,000 tonnes of Russian wheat at its previous tender. Russia has endured a drought that may cut its wheat harvest in the 2012/13 season by 20 percent to around 45.5 million tonnes. But the head of Russia's Grain Union last week said Russia will have enough grain for export and domestic consumption at least until the end of 2012.

Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.16 ^
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 7.9875 ^
Rice (Not listed today)
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.03 ^
Barley (Not listed today)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 15, 2012, 11:49:42 AM
Sunflower production in the European Union, Russia and Ukraine will be lower than previously expected after heat and dry weather in June and July damaged the oilseed crop, Oil World wrote.

Aug 14, 2012 6:30 AM PT “The volumes lost in sunflower seed and oil are likely to be sufficiently large to have an impact on the global vegetable- oil market,” Oil World wrote. “The losses come on top of the prospective sharp decline in world production of soya oil in the next six months.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-14/european-sunflower-crop-outlook-cut-by-oil-world-on-summer-heat.html

If you like sunflower seed oil for cooking, might try to get some...

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 15, 2012, 11:51:03 AM
Leading members of the Group of 20 nations are prepared to trigger an emergency meeting to address soaring grain prices caused by the worst U.S. drought in more than half a century and poor crops from the Black Sea bread basket.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/13/us-food-g20-call-idUSBRE87C0EI20120813

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on August 15, 2012, 01:54:41 PM
So the administration won't end the mandate on Ethanol which will keep corn prices high, and as I'm sure most here know, 40% of the corn crop is slated for ethanol production.
I'm so glad our great leader stepped up to the plate to inform us all that the feds will help the poor suffering farmers by buying 170 million dollars worth of pigs, chicken, and lamb. Wow I'm impressed, seeings how in 2007 the U.S. sales of hogs and pigs totaled $18.1 billion.
So this administration spends more of my tax dollars and wastes corn on ethanol.
What a country...

Sources:
http://washingtonexaminer.com/examiner-editorial-to-protect-ethanol-obama-seeks-to-inflate-meat-prices/article/2504906#.UCu5291lREP
http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2007/Online_Highlights/Fact_Sheets/Production/hogsandpigs.pdf
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 16, 2012, 04:40:48 PM
So if they cut back on ethanol.. even to 20%, 10%, 5%, or add none in...  what do they replace the enthanol with? Gasoline? What would the regular gasoline cost per gallon then if they leave it out? Would barrels go up even more? Would there be more excuses of 'refinery fires', to jack the prices back up? It was $4.00/reg here again this morning. With the rivers being low, the larger barges are not able to get through either. It also looked like diesel is rising in price again.. Fuel keeps going around and around like a vicious circle, hey?

I would think that when the country was in crisis, that ideally that Congress would have stayed in session, not blocking Farm Bills when they were in session and not gone on vacation leaving the poor farmers to do what they can until they can get some kind of relief from some source until Congress gets back in the building. Farmers dumping that many animals before they traditionally would have been put into a human food chain might mean less buyers, so that UP TO $170M might be what the US Gov't already budgets for their meat buying for the year?

This is not a unprecedented move. Federal law allows the Agriculture Department to buy meat and poultry products to help farmers and ranchers affected by natural disasters and they have done in many times in the past from other presidents. Most of the meat goes to the Department of the Defense (aka military), as well as a smaller amount to Food Banks.

Cedar




Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 16, 2012, 04:53:22 PM
And of course I was curious and had to look it up... "The military buys approximately 94 million pounds of beef, 64 million pounds of pork, and 500,000 pounds of lamb each year. That food gets eaten by troops around the world, even in combat zones like Afghanistan. "

I also have read from various sources that our 'government storage pantry' is EMPTY!! (Look up above somewhere for the full list of what they normally have historically and what they have currently in stock)... NO ONE is talking about what will happen if there is a drought, flood, locusts, blight, rust etc on the crops next year in 2013, and I am not talking just the USA. If meat prices will be higher next year, wouldn't it be smart for the US government to stock up and freeze meat this year for next year when the prices are higher? I would. Or... doh.. I am...

So the question is... is the government really being foolish in spending taxpayers money on meat now? Or are they foolish in waiting to next year to buy it if it will be more expensive for less meat in 2013? I don't know the answer, it was rhetorical.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 16, 2012, 05:20:37 PM
Yesterday:

Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.16 ^

Today:
Price in US$ per bushel: 9.22 ^

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: archer on August 16, 2012, 05:23:46 PM
thanks for keeping us all up to date on this Cedar!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on August 16, 2012, 05:27:37 PM
The point I was hoping to make was the amount of money the Govt spent was really quite small. If they really wanted to stock up that number should have been 5 times that amount.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 16, 2012, 05:33:05 PM
Yesterday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.16 ^
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 7.9875 ^
Rice (Not listed today)
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.03 ^ 17.345
Barley (Not listed today)

Today:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.22 ^ 0.6 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.13 ^ 0.15 cents overnight
Rice (Not listed today)
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.345 ^ 0.31 cents overnight
Barley (Not listed today)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 16, 2012, 05:37:34 PM
The point I was hoping to make was the amount of money the Govt spent was really quite small. If they really wanted to stock up that number should have been 5 times that amount.

Ideally yes..  but they may not have had any extra money allotted for it? They would have had the money for the troops and the foods banks.. so maybe that is the money which went for it.. ?

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on August 16, 2012, 08:00:06 PM
Interesting on that drought map it shows Wisconsin as 'improving'. We drove through hundreds and hundreds of acres of scorched cornfields last week. The rain that has now fallen on them isn't much good for a dead crop.

Bacon: $2.00 14 oz.
Hamburger: $1.99 for 10 lb family pack.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 16, 2012, 08:10:19 PM
My friend lives in Adams, WI. He said they got alot of rain there in a couple days comparably to before. Just because there is rainfall and the drought is 'improving' does not mean or have reverence to the crops.. just the soil moisture content. No.. the crops are hooped for this year.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 17, 2012, 12:07:02 PM
Wrappers too?? http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2012/08/16/dnt-ky-cows-eating-candy.wpsd?iref=allsearch

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexDaddy on August 17, 2012, 12:35:28 PM
Wrappers too??...
It will all come out in the end.  ;)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: archer on August 17, 2012, 01:36:49 PM
guess that will be sweet beef
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 18, 2012, 09:18:32 AM
Wednesday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.16 ^
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 7.9875 ^
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.03 ^ 17.345

Thursday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.22 ^ 0.6 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.13 ^ 0.15 cents overnight
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.345 ^ 0.31 cents overnight

Friday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.495 ^ 0.27 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.235 ^ 0.10 cents overnight
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.5075 ^ 0.27 cents overnight

In 3 days,
Wheat price went up 0.33 cents a bushel
Corn price went up .25 cents  a bushel
Soybeans price went up 0.47 cents a bushel


A bushel of wheat weighs 60 pounds.
A bushel of corn weighs 56 pounds.
A bushel of soybeans weighs 60 pounds.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 18, 2012, 11:48:08 AM
Corn price went up .025 cents  a bushel

I meant....
Corn price went up 0.25 cents  a bushel. Archer could you fix it above?

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Nicodemus on August 18, 2012, 11:59:05 AM
I changed it with my awesome new superpowers!  ;D
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 18, 2012, 12:07:10 PM
*looks at Nic's new badge" O000000000000000000000h.. aaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh..
Thanks Nic..

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: archer on August 18, 2012, 12:36:21 PM
I meant....
Corn price went up 0.25 cents  a bushel. Archer could you fix it above?

Cedar
someone beat me to it.. darn kids
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 18, 2012, 12:59:39 PM
I finally found what I have been hunting for over a week on...

"The latest forecast from the National Weather Service, however, predicts that the drought will continue and even intensify across much of the United States through November. The drought, Rippey said, could extend into next year. “There is the distinct possibility that we could be dry in certain geographic parts of the Midwest in 2013,” Rippey said, and “they really can’t afford another mild, dry winter.”


Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 18, 2012, 01:23:21 PM
Experimental Unofficial Two-class Monthly & Seasonal Climate Outlooks
Issued: 16 Aug 2012

The contours on the map show the total probability (%) of two categories, above, indicated by the letter "A", and below, indicated by the letter "B". At any point on the map, the sum of the probabilities of these two categories is 100%.

For any particular location, and season, these two categories are defined from the 30 observations from 1981-2010. The coldest or driest 1/2 (15 years) define the B category, the warmest or wettest 1/2 (15 years) defines the A category.
When the forecasters decide that one of the extreme categories, say above (A), is the most likely one, they assign probabilities which exceed 50% to that category. This means that the chance of the opposite category is the remaining part of the total (100%). In regions where the forecasters have no indications favoring either A, or B, the chance of these two categories is defined to be 50% each, and the region is labeled "EC", which stands for equal chances.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/two_class.php

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 18, 2012, 01:37:47 PM
Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi believes there is a significant chance for particularly frigid winters in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 into 2014-2015.  Bastardi said these winters could be similar to winters of the late 1970s.   He said, “While the most consistent of the cold is to the north, severe bouts of cold deep into Texas and Florida would be capable of affecting agriculture more so than we’ve seen in that last 20 years or so.”

http://unofficialnetworks.com/winters-2012-2013-2014-frigid-104605/

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 18, 2012, 01:55:13 PM
From one of the links I posted up above..

“If we put together the combination of La Nina, El Nino, La Nina again and we look at what happened when that happened before with a cold Pacific, and we also understand that the volcanoes may be involved along with the low sunspot activity, one could come to the conclusion that a series of very cold winters … could be on the way,” he said.   Bastardi said this is all part of a natural pattern of reversal which he believes will lead to a crash in global temperatures over the next nine months, from the very warm levels set off by El Nino—as forecast globally by AccuWeather.com."

I know about "The Year without a Summer" from a variety of corn I have from that era called "Roy's Calais".. it was snowing in New England all summer.. so there was no summer. This happened in 1816 and was caused by "a combination of a historic low in solar activity with a volcanic winter event, the latter caused by a succession of major volcanic eruptions", something which they say is happening now and there is a known lull in the solar activity coming up. http://www.dandantheweatherman.com/Bereklauw/yearnosummer.html

I am not sure which way it is going, but it doesn't look like a happy medium at this time. Hopefully the stats and forecast change for the better.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 20, 2012, 04:10:23 PM
Romania lost 50% of its crops http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19292597 There are fears that the prolonged drought could affect next year's harvest and economy.

Wales http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-19326439 Farmers in Wales say they are facing a difficult year ahead, with a summer that has seen very few sunny days and a deluge of rain has hit crops like maize and wheat and pushed up food production costs. More from Wales http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-19269312

In general http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18857765

France http://www.france24.com/en/20120814-debate-part-2-biofuels-energy-drought-food-prices

Russia - Russia’s inflation will also rise from 6.5 per cent to 7.2 per cent, the bank says, as a result of low crop yields http://rt.com/business/news/morgan-gdp-cut-764/

Syria http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/03/437051/syria-climate-change-drought-and-social-unrest/?mobile=nc

Italy http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-13/italy-s-crop-damage-from-drought-seen-close-to-1-billion-euros.html

BC, Canada http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/07/24/bc-okanagan-crop-cherry-peach.html

Ontario, Canada
http://www.windsorstar.com/news/With+Large+hail+causes+carnage+crops+near+Erie+shoreline/6879101/story.html

Germany http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/mouse-plague-hits-central-germany-a-843811.html Where is a Pied Piper when you need one?

India http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-15/rice-harvest-in-india-set-to-decline-as-drought-curbs-planting.html Drought fears loom in India as monsoon stalls http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/india/120725/domestic-drought-global-food-crisis

North & South Korea http://www.aljazeera.com/video/asia/2012/06/2012626122749189863.html Food prices across the country are increasing by an average of 20 to 30 per cent.

China http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4ki86NcDdI

Droughts have struck food-producing regions in the United States, Russia, China, North Korea, and South Korea, raising the prospect of higher commodity prices and localized food shortages. http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2012/world/north-america/droughts-hit-world-agricultural-regions-without-water-u-s-corn-crop-faces-setbacks/


The world may face a food crisis very soon as drought parches corn crops in the U.S., IFPRI’s director-general Shenggen Fan said Aug. 14. Corn surged to a record $8.49 a bushel on Aug. 10.


There are lots and lots and lots of crop failures from all over the world this year.

Cedar





Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 21, 2012, 08:47:14 AM
Wednesday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.16 ^
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 7.9875 ^
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.03 ^

Thursday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.22 ^ 0.6 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.13 ^ 0.15 cents overnight
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.345 ^ 0.31 cents overnight

Friday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.495 ^ 0.27 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.235 ^ 0.10 cents overnight
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.5075 ^ 0.27 cents overnight

Monday:
Wheat Price in US$ 9.55 per bushel:  ^ 0.06 cents since Friday
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.40 ^ 0.16 cents since Friday
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.88 ^ 0.38 cents  since Friday

In 4 days,
Wheat price went up 0.39 cents a bushel
Corn price went up .41 cents  a bushel
Soybeans price went up 0.85 cents a bushel

A bushel of wheat weighs 60 pounds.
A bushel of corn weighs 56 pounds.
A bushel of soybeans weighs 60 pounds.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Outdoorfury on August 21, 2012, 09:01:56 AM
thinking i am going to go get some organic chicken feed tonight
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: rikkrack on August 21, 2012, 09:06:24 AM
We just planted more buckwheat and other plants to try and NOT buy feed anymore for our chickens.

Already switched fish in aquaponics from pellets to duckweed which we grow.

Getting to expensive to feed our own animals which we were growing to feed ourselves.

And the snowball continues....
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 21, 2012, 11:20:06 PM
WHOA... One leftist mayor in Spain's Cordoba province takes his villagers on food raids.
http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_t3#/video/world/2012/08/21/pkg-goodman-spanish-mayor-robin-hood.cnn

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: rikkrack on August 22, 2012, 05:17:53 AM
While understanding it is a protest, that is just asking for trouble. I can see this going wrong in so many different directions.

Perhaps this may make some people wake up. Not just in governments but some of those grasshoppers.

Cedar, you seem to find all kinds of great information. Thanks so much for bringing it to our attention.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 22, 2012, 07:58:06 AM
I was talking to friends on the phone last night...

In Tennessee chicken feed went up $1 for 50 pounds when my one set of friends bought some yesterday.
In Pennsylvania my friend reported chicken feed went up $3 for 50 pounds

Cedar

P.S. You're welcome. I am looking it up for myself and just putting it here for you viewing 'pleasure'
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 22, 2012, 08:36:39 AM
The world's top wheat importers have stepped up purchases in recent weeks amid concerns over diminishing supplies from the
Black Sea region. After imports by Egypt and Algeria, Iran's state grains agency has in the past week discreetly purchased around 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat, largely from the European Union, Baltic Sea and Black Sea regions. Russian grain yields have fallen 27.5 percent from last year. As of Monday, Russia's Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday, as a drought which has raised fears of a curb on grain exports hits the country.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 22, 2012, 12:35:31 PM
Wednesday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.16 ^
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 7.9875 ^
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.03 ^

Thursday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.22 ^ 0.6 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.13 ^ 0.15 cents overnight
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.345 ^ 0.31 cents overnight

Friday:
Wheat Price in US$ per bushel: 9.495 ^ 0.27 cents overnight
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.235 ^ 0.10 cents overnight
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.5075 ^ 0.27 cents overnight

Monday:
Wheat Price in US$ 9.55 per bushel:  ^ 0.06 cents since Friday
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.40 ^ 0.16 cents since Friday
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 17.88 ^ 0.38 cents  since Friday


Tuesday
Wheat Price in US$ 9.7225 per bushel:  ^ 0.20 cents since yesterday
Corn Price in US$ per bushel: 8.5825 ^ 0.18 cents since yesterday
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 18.375 ^ 0.49 cents since yesterday

In 5 days,
Wheat price went up 0.59 cents a bushel
Corn price went up .59 cents  a bushel
Soybeans price went up 1.34 cents a bushel

Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on August 22, 2012, 04:52:11 PM
So consider Iran. They just purchased 400,000 tons of wheat. At 33 bushels of wheat per ton that's 13,200,000 bushels of wheat. The cost of waiting 5 days would have meant a cost increase of 7.8 million dollars (had they used dollars).
Using Tuesdays prices that 13 million bushels of wheat would have cost them $128.3 million dollars.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 22, 2012, 05:11:38 PM
Iran's state grains agency has in the past week discreetly purchased around 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat, largely from the European Union, Baltic Sea and Black Sea regions.

So consider Iran.

I just reconsidered Iran after you posted that and after I posted this
http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=37053.msg417146#msg417146

Maybe they are not just stocking to think about food for their people if there is lack of grain. Maybe they are stocking for war.

Cedar



Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexasGirl on August 22, 2012, 09:37:44 PM
I just reconsidered Iran after you posted that and after I posted this
http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=37053.msg417146#msg417146

Maybe they are not just stocking to think about food for their people if there is lack of grain. Maybe they are stocking for war.

Cedar

I hate to say it, but their people/government appears to be using more common sense than ours.

~TG
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 23, 2012, 04:39:25 PM
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-06/rice-hoard-offers-world-respite-as-food-costs-surge

At a time when droughts are driving corn and soybeans to all-time highs, farmers are set to reap a record rice crop and Thailand is building the biggest stockpile in at least five decades, helping avoid a global food crisis.


Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 23, 2012, 04:44:05 PM
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL2E8JFH6020120820

The latest run-up in grain prices comes at a time when the world economy is slowing, the euro zone is in turmoil and unemployment is higher almost everywhere.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on August 23, 2012, 04:46:19 PM
Hooray for Thailand. (I mean that sincerely, BTW. Good on them. Hopefully no one invades them and steals their harvest.)

I must say, a lot of the chatter in this thread (and actually a lot of the rest of TSP) repeatedly brings my musings back to the Biblical story of Joseph and his life in Egypt. If ever there was a Prepper story in the Bible, that one is assuredly it.


(And IIRC, a lot of those scary-rich insider type people that we like to call "the elites" have been making plans for more than 5 years now to abandon the sinking ship of the USA and flee to places such as ..... Thailand. Not just Thailand, but places in Asia in and around China and India where tomorrow's economic powerhouse assuredly lies. They want a seat at tomorrow's financial table afterall, and a seat for their children as well. So .... just like Egypt plundered the whole of the known world during their killer grain selling of the Seven Years of Famine as found in the Book of Genesis, and thus Egypt became one of the most powerful nations in that part of the world, so too will key parts of Asia be able to plunder the whole world, I imagine, over the next several years. )
 
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 23, 2012, 04:49:47 PM
Fear not rising food prices

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Fear+rising+food+prices/7124613/story.html

The full impact of the commodity price hikes for packaged and processed foods will likely take six to nine months to move through to retail food prices. However, on a global scale, the story is very different. We should recognize that the rest of the developing world will be hit harder by this drought than Canada and the United States

The fears of embargoes and governmental knee-jerk reactions, like we have seen in the past, can make the situation worse and lead to new food riots.


Cedar




Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 23, 2012, 04:52:10 PM
I must say, a lot of the chatter in this thread (and actually a lot of the rest of TSP) repeatedly brings my muisngs back to the Biblical story of Joseph and his life in Egypt. If ever there was a Prepper story in the Bible, that one is assuredly it.

And weirdly enough, I just found this http://newsroom.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/23/should-the-u-s-emulate-the-biblical-joseph-and-store-grain/

...and in there, it admits we have no grain reserves "At one time, the U.S. government did maintain physical reserves of grain, but today opts instead to hold cash reserves should it need to buy grain in the event of a crisis."

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on August 23, 2012, 04:53:51 PM
And weirdly enough, I just found this http://newsroom.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/23/should-the-u-s-emulate-the-biblical-joseph-and-store-grain/

Cedar

Ha!  8)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 23, 2012, 05:14:43 PM
Interesting article from 2011, BEFORE the drought and higher prices.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/10/business/10crop.html

2011 - The Department of Agriculture reported Wednesday that the ethanol industry’s projected orders this year rose 8.4 percent, to 13.01 billion bushels, after record-high production in December and January. That means the United States will have about 675 million bushels of corn left at the end of the year. That is about 5 percent of all corn that will be consumed, the lowest surplus level since 1996.

2011- Corn prices have already doubled in the last six months, rising from $3.50 a bushel to more than $7 a bushel. (Today in 2012 it is $8.6025 per bushel.)

2011- “I think we have a chance to test the all-time high” price of $7.65 a bushel, a Telvent DTN analyst, John Sanow, said. The tight level of reserves leaves little margin for error if there are production problems this year, which could send prices higher quickly, he said. (Again, today in 2012 it is $8.6025 per bushel.)

Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on August 23, 2012, 05:39:46 PM
I find this all fascinating, in a "I can't look away" kind of way.  Continued thanks to Cedar for all the research.

So I am now wondering-while the mainstream is just starting to realize the effects the drought will have on corn related prices, is it also time for me to put more into purchasing wheat and wheat products such as noodles for LTS?  I had felt pretty comfortable with where I was at for wheat but now wonder. . .
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 23, 2012, 05:48:29 PM
I find this all fascinating, in a "I can't look away" kind of way.  Continued thanks to Cedar for all the research.

Tell me about it.. and you're welcome.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 23, 2012, 06:26:13 PM
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/08/23/corn-futures-drop-on-export-sales-report-2/

“If anything, yields are being confirmed as coming in as bad, if not worse” than government estimates, Britt said. “It causes some profit taking to come into the market […] at these price levels it’s [corn] going to trade with a lot more volatility and emotion.”

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 23, 2012, 06:29:33 PM
Grains futures, livestock prices fall

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505245_162-57498130/grains-futures-livestock-prices-fall/

I am interested in the livestock prices in this article. Buy now through October if you can.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Mister Dark on August 23, 2012, 07:09:41 PM
Cedar, great job finding this data.  It has been a real eye-opener (combined with my experience driving through the midwest this past june and july, it has been plain ol SCARY!)

And to follow up on the whole trend, beef prices at the store have started to fall. Just got Angus ribeye for under $10 a pound at the local big box grocer. First time it has been that cheap in a long time.   I need to learn how to can cow. 

It makes me wonder what else I should be putting back. 

Keep up the good work!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 23, 2012, 07:23:58 PM
And to follow up on the whole trend, beef prices at the store have started to fall. Just got Angus ribeye for under $10 a pound at the local big box grocer. First time it has been that cheap in a long time.   I need to learn how to can cow. 

Ask and you shall receive? http://extension.usu.edu/utah/files/uploads/Canning/Guide%205%20-%20Canning%20Meats.pdf get a pressure canner.

It makes me wonder what else I should be putting back. 

Anything/everything you come across on a good price you think you need and might go up and you have the funds for?


Keep up the good work!

Thanks. I will try.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 23, 2012, 08:34:31 PM
Interesting read from the FEDS.. specifically the F e d e r a l  R e s e r v e  B a n k  o f  K a n s a s  C i t y. Did you know that the Fed is meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming next week? Apparently they do this once a year. In the link below they talk about the Ag outlook.

http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/mse/MSE_0312.pdf

The minutes showed the central bank is considering two key measures to boost the U.S. economy. Investors are likely to stay focused on the Fed, with attention on the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. next week. Detrick said "All in all, we're just biding our time and waiting for Jackson Hole
."

All the links for the minutes of July's Fed meeting are offline however.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: archer on August 23, 2012, 09:44:46 PM
thanks for your work Cedar.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sonny on August 23, 2012, 09:50:05 PM
My Buddy has a ranch up in Nebraska.  He paid $80 per ton for hay last year, now due to the drought, is is $220 per ton because he has to have it shipped from so far away, also the supply and demand curve.  He is hoping to weather his herd of cows through the winter.  Many others are just selling their cows for beef now.  I suspect the price will go down then skyrocket because the market is flooded with cows that the ranchers can't afford to feed through the winter.  Then next year there won't be any new cows to fill the void.  I told him he was like Forrest Gump and the shrimp boat.  He might be one of the last ones with cows next year.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 24, 2012, 09:27:44 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/25/business/no-relief-in-forecast-for-rise-in-food-prices.html

 The Agriculture Department said this week that 85 percent of this year’s corn crop was in drought-impacted areas, and 83 percent of the soybean crop was threatened. As of Monday, just 23 percent of the corn crop was rated in good or excellent condition, while  31 percent of soybeans were rated good or excellent.

Cheese and milk products are expected to increase 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent next year, unchanged from last month’s forecast. Egg prices will also be affected, with prices forecast to rise 3 percent to 4 percent next year.


Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexasGirl on August 24, 2012, 10:52:01 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/25/business/no-relief-in-forecast-for-rise-in-food-prices.html

 The Agriculture Department said this week that 85 percent of this year’s corn crop was in drought-impacted areas, and 83 percent of the soybean crop was threatened. As of Monday, just 23 percent of the corn crop was rated in good or excellent condition, while  31 percent of soybeans were rated good or excellent.

Cheese and milk products are expected to increase 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent next year, unchanged from last month’s forecast. Egg prices will also be affected, with prices forecast to rise 3 percent to 4 percent next year.


Cedar

A friend called me from Sam's Club last week saying that a case of eggs went up 50% in price over 2 weeks.  Don't know if that was localized or across the board, egg supply (even in the mega stores) tends to be regional.

~TG
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 24, 2012, 03:36:32 PM
Today's world grain news.

EU wheat futures flat, await sparkle for new rise
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/24/markets-grains-europe-idUSL6E8JO75W20120824
"I think we have not seen the highs, especially if the Southern hemisphere does not come to take the relay," said a trader who remained bullish on prices.

News about the Russian crop was also cause for concern. The International Grains Council on Thursday slashed its forecast for the country's wheat crop by 4 million tonnes to 41 million, now below the amount produced during the last drought in 2010, which led Russia to ban exports.


Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 24, 2012, 04:51:03 PM
News of today:

Russia May Run Out of Exportable Grain Surplus in November
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-23/russia-may-run-out-of-exportable-grain-surplus-in-november-1-.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 27, 2012, 02:11:14 AM
Disruption to the livestock market. Corn, soybeans and alfalfa prices have risen so much, it's affecting meat producers, who use those commodities as raw materials to feed their herds, Georgy says. Meat producers are losing roughly $200 a head on cattle and $50 a hog, as it costs more to feed the animals than their meat can be sold for, he says. Big meat producers such as Tyson and Smithfield are suffering; their stocks have fallen 27% and 21%, respectively, this year, a period in which the Standard & Poor's 500 is up 12.2%.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/story/2012-08-26/drought-food-prices-investing/57334442/1

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 27, 2012, 02:39:47 AM
Since Issac is following Katrina's path even to the day, I decided to see what damage Katrina caused agriculturally speaking and what havoc Issac might do if it indeed takes the same path.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on August 27, 2012, 08:57:43 AM
Note to self: Stock up even more on sugar and wheat. . .
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 29, 2012, 06:47:57 PM
Isaac threatens record corn harvest in Louisiana
http://www.katc.com/news/isaac-threatens-record-corn-harvest-in-louisiana/

... And he says about two-thirds of a record 560,000-acre corn crop was still in the field Monday because the low Mississippi River has slowed shipping.

Soybean specialist Ronnie Levy says growers are harvesting as fast as they can, but most of their beans are not yet ready. Levy says 65 to 75 percent may still be in the field by the end of Tuesday. Louisiana has approximately 1.2 million acres of soybeans planted this year.


LA Farmers scramble to bring in soybean crop
http://www.thenewsstar.com/article/20120827/NEWS01/120827035/Farmers-scramble-bring-soybean-crop?odyssey=nav|head



BUT, it is not all bad, "Heavy rain from Hurricane Isaac will stall the harvest of U.S. crops but also add valuable soil moisture ahead of autumn seeding of winter wheat and boost river water levels, aiding waterway transport, an agricultural meteorologist said on Wednesday. "

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on August 30, 2012, 11:13:56 AM
I just launched a brand new thread about a sorry case of an idiot drunken kid (21 years old) who was with a larger group of other young adults who were all visiting some girl's family farm after being drunk at a nearby concert. After he staggered out of her house for the night in the wee hours of the morning, he somehow made his way to the farm's power shed and --for reasons no one really knows, including himself-- he shut off the main breaker for the out-buildings. This shut down ALL the power to three huge industrialized chicken barns, stopping the exhaust fans, and then killing 70,000 chickens in under 20 minutes.


http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=37212.msg419220#msg419220


So .... we now have 70k less chickens for the commodities markets this year, but not due to the drought, but rather due to a complete moron.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 31, 2012, 10:17:52 PM
Got milk?

http://www.agweb.com/article/nowhere_to_turn_for_dairies/

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 31, 2012, 10:57:58 PM
Got rice?

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday 27 percent of the U.S. rice crop had been harvested. Nearly all of the U.S. rice is grown in the Deep South, which is in the path of Isaac.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/30/markets-isaac-rice-idUSL2E8JU8YE20120830

http://deltafarmpress.com/rice/harvest-hurry-isaac-prompts-late-nights-field

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexasGirl on September 01, 2012, 02:17:05 PM
Got rice?

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday 27 percent of the U.S. rice crop had been harvested. Nearly all of the U.S. rice is grown in the Deep South, which is in the path of Isaac.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/30/markets-isaac-rice-idUSL2E8JU8YE20120830

http://deltafarmpress.com/rice/harvest-hurry-isaac-prompts-late-nights-field

Cedar

Rice is a major component of TexasGirl's plan.  Prices have been fairly stable for 50lb bags down here over the last year.  As of last week, Sam's Club in NE Texas carried Arkansas rice for less than $16./ 50lb, SE Texas Sam's had Comet rice for less than $17./ 50lb.  I haven't seen Adolphus brand in a year, though.  It was my favorite. 

White rice keeps as well as wheat, but is easily cooked and consumed with no additional prep work required.

~TG
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 03, 2012, 09:37:02 AM
Why 2013 will be a year of crisis
http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/03/opinion/frum-food-price-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_c3

Model on food prices and social unrest predicts crisis in 2013
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/03/food-crisis-2013.html

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/2012/08/30/severe-droughts-drive-food-prices-higher-threatening-poor

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 03, 2012, 10:53:29 AM
Vids from the USDA

http://youtu.be/ssKKSDcuTE8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFqnaxy3ZA4&feature=share&list=UUPtmylrUkGoDkAAWMaUH91A


Another interesting vid, (at 16:16 too)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iq6Ng638Ejw

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexasGirl on September 03, 2012, 11:02:58 AM
Cedar,

After talking to (sheeple) friends and now reading these articles, I'm believing Americans for the most part as believing all this talk about droughts and such is just saying that prices will be going up more for food.  Sure, that is true in a sense, as Americans change from spending 10% of income on food to 12% or even 20%, we will be taking more of the food that was destined for elsewhere in the world.  As one article states, many populations have no extra discretionary income to spend on food commodities, vast shortages and unrest will result.  Somewhere.

It wouldn't take much for that somewhere to be here.  No, we shouldn't be starving like third world countries, it may be more of an inconvenience that our favorite something is no longer on the shelf, or menu.  But folks in this country have rioted on things much less important than starvation.

It makes sense for us to plan ahead, stocking up on things while it is still considered "storing."  After shortages begin to appear, the same act of storing may be considered "hoarding."

Thanks for keeping us up to date!

~TG
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 03, 2012, 12:00:30 PM
I keep looking for info on what they think the crops/weather for 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 outlook will be. They (the weather dudes) pretty much won't know until December 2012 and then April 2013, but I am concerned. 2012 was the 3rd year and I was concerned as to what 2012 crops would bring us. I am EXTREMELY concerned for 2013. If crops are bad here and abroad in 2013, it is extremely serious. This year will just be a drop in the bucket. There is pretty much nothing we can do about it, other than store, have a garden, convert what we can to grey-water for at-home use, and watch to see what Mother Nature will bring or not bring. Just this summer caused 44 million more people to go hungry in the rest of the world due to the crop shortages in the US. Do I think it could happen here? You bet. We would be foolish to think a famine could not happen here. It is not as likely as elsewhere, but it could happen. 2013-2014 show indicators of being the 'perfect storm' for it from the little tidbits I have been able to glean. Rust in wheat has been spreading across Africa. I hope it stays contained there.

Another interesting thing I have noted... by this time last year I had 400+ jars canned up. I currently have 21 jars canned up. The crops are not coming in to gleaners. We are getting dry bulk, canned goods and some produce, but not enough to put up like we did last year. I suspect this might be that alot of the food might be heading to fill the holes further east from crops which failed and we do not have the surplus. I am also noting we are 3-4 weeks behind on many crops, yet some are early. Like tomorrow I have a blueberry pick to go on, but blues are usually over by now-ish in my area.

In 2008, Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer, at a food aid conference, said his agency faced tough decisions about managing the rest of the reserve in times of widespread hunger. "How far do we draw down?" he asked. "Do we take it down to zero because we need it? Do we hold some in there, because who knows what's going to happen, for emergency purposes later?" It is even lower than that today from when he said that five years ago.

Also in 2008, "Domestic nutrition programs, supported by once-bountiful commodity supplies, also face increasing stress. In a sign of how tight the situation has become, Keenum last summer dug into little-used legal authority to barter the last remaining USDA raw cotton and other surplus for about $120 million of canned meat and other processed goods desperately needed by domestic food banks and international programs. "

The USDA accumulates stockpiles several ways. It buys dairy products when prices are low. Farmers who grow wheat, corn, soybeans and other grains can forfeit their crop to pay off loans. The USDA can buy crops, including fruits and vegetables, when surpluses develop. Many farmers today are growing crops for fuel, not food, a development outside of USDA control and one that makes it harder for the government to manage crop production. As much as a third of the corn crop could be dedicated to ethanol production. Again this is five year old data and from what I can find, it has only gotten worse.

This however, is from this year in April, BEFORE the droughts really started in July and makes me question a few things
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-08/slumping-u-s-crop-reserves-raising-food-costs-in-election-year.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 03, 2012, 01:04:29 PM
I had to go as the phone rang and I did not want to lose my post above...

I keep looking back to the historic times of 1816 and the 1930's agriculturally in the US. We all know that weather/crops cycle.. The 1930's interest me as we are in the same sort of situation now with the weather, economics worldwide and more.. "The decade started with dry years in 1930 and 1931 especially in the East. Then, 1934 recorded extremely dry conditions over almost 80 percent of the United States. Extreme drought conditions returned in 1936, 1939 and 1940." That is 10 years of drought. We only had 60-70% of a drought in the US this year, and although the 1930's was the worst in recorded history, but in prehistoric times, the data suggests that droughts may have lasted decades or even longer. It worries me that farmers in the mid-West are plowing their corn under. I wouldn't have as it is holding the soil in place. The huge dust storms that took acres and acres and acres of topsoil away in the 1930's ... those lessons apparently were not heeded as the agricorps are doing it now. Monocropping to the extremes that farmers in the 1930's would never imagined.

This is the Canadian version of the Great Depression/1930's drought http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/agriculture/drought1930s.html

The current 2010-2012 drought (yes.. it was not just THIS year) has covered 80% of the contiguous United States with at least abnormally dry (D0) conditions. Out of that 80%, 62% is designated as at least moderate drought (D1) conditions. It is affecting a similarly large area as droughts in the 1930s and 1950s but it has not yet been in place as long.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_North_American_drought

Somewhere up there ^^^ I wrote about the "Year without a Summer". We are also at a classic setup for another one of those too. We have volcanoes and earthquakes happening all over the place with another historic low in solar activity as was then. This resulted in major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere in 1816. On 6 June 1816, snow fell in Albany, New York, and Dennysville, Maine. Nearly 12 inches (30 cm) of snow was observed in Quebec City in early June. Cool temperatures and heavy rains resulted in failed harvests in Britain and Ireland as well. Families in Wales traveled long distances as refugees, begging for food. Famine was prevalent in north and southwest Ireland, following the failure of wheat, oats, and potato harvests. The crisis was severe in Germany, where food prices rose sharply. Due to the unknown cause of the problems, demonstrations in front of grain markets and bakeries, followed by riots, arson, and looting, took place in many European cities. Also in China and other countries it effected foods. It was the worst famine of the 19th century.

Think that was a long time ago? The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 led to odd weather patterns and temporary cooling in the United States, particularly in the Midwest and parts of the Northeast. I remember that Mount Saint Helens did in 1980.


Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexasGirl on September 03, 2012, 02:08:37 PM
Cedar,

As a nation, we have been fortunate in that most droughts have been regional.  Even in the 30's, Texas was not as hard hit as most of the plains.  Our biggest drought year was 1951, at least until last year, which they say broke that record.  I'm not sure all the numbers are even in yet.

While I have plans in place to feed my love ones, those dependent on grocery store shelves or eating out may suffer.  As commodities get tight, it would almost be expected to see more "not for human consumption" corn and grain being used in processed foods and chain/fast food eateries.  Can you imagine Taco Bell coming up short saying we don't have taco shells, tostado chips, and tortillas?  Or Mc Donalds/Jack/Burger King not having hamburger buns?  MegaCorps will find a way, even if it means using sub-par commodities and fillers.

If anyone reading this forum is still on the fence about whether or not to store food, or how much to store, now is the time to do some soul-searching on the matter.  Personally, I have decided to lay in a bit more of the basics to help others.  I believe Jack has even mentioned this several times before on the air.

~TG
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LvsChant on September 04, 2012, 09:30:00 AM
Thanks for keeping us up to date, Cedar. Even with housebuilding going on, I continue to can and store in Mom's basement here. I'd feel a lot better with more canned veges down there for the winter.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 04, 2012, 10:00:11 AM
Buy popcorn.. if I remember right the average family of 4 goes through 12 pounds a year.

http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2012/09/04/bad-news-for-movie-fans-us-drought-hits-popcorn-crop

Retail prices have jumped this summer: from about $20 for a 50 pound bag to $30 or higher, said Tim Caldwell, owner of Pop It Rite, an Illinois-based popcorn industry expert and snack foods consultant. Wholesale prices have started to creep up, too, he said.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 04, 2012, 01:58:03 PM
WORLD AGRICULTURAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
August 10, 2012

http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Monthly/current.pdf

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 04, 2012, 02:06:10 PM
And just for fun (and research) here is where certain commodities come from. Click on a product, like flaxseed. Oregon USED to be a major player for growing flax.. no more.. find out where. Is it grown in the drought or hurricaine areas?

http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP/namerica.htm

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 04, 2012, 11:43:00 PM
And apparently stock up on maple syrup

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/31/millions-of-dollars-in-maple-syrup-stolen/?iref=obnetwork

As much as 80% of the world's maple syrup comes from Quebec. Up to 10 million pounds of syrup was in the warehouse, according to a statement from the Federation of Quebec Maple Syrup Producers, which bills itself as keeper of  the global strategic maple syrup reserve.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 05, 2012, 08:06:11 AM
Soybeans Price in US$ per bushel: 18.375 ^ 0.49 cents since yesterday

Wheat and corn have come down a little and leveling off, but soybeans are still climbing. Price in US$ per bushel: $18.3825. All of it is still high.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on September 05, 2012, 02:33:55 PM
Harvest is going to be so pitiful this year soybeans will have to hit $50 for me to make any money. For the sake of my grocery bill I hope that doesn't happen!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 05, 2012, 03:00:50 PM
How many pounds to the acre this year VS other good years?

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on September 05, 2012, 03:17:29 PM
I am sure glad to have Cheryl and her immediacy to the farm to give her insight.  It is a nice counterpoint to the dry facts and figures that Cedar provides.  I am very grateful for everyone on this forum.  you are all so great and add various insights.

at TEOTWAWKI, I am going to use my magic to gather the members of this forum into a bubble and protect us and we can use our skills to start the world over ;)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on September 05, 2012, 03:58:56 PM
... I'm believing Americans for the most part as believing all this talk about droughts and such is just saying that prices will be going up more for food.  Sure, that is true in a sense, as Americans change from spending 10% of income on food to 12% or even 20%, we will be taking more of the food that was destined for elsewhere in the world.  As one article states, many populations have no extra discretionary income to spend on food commodities, vast shortages and unrest will result.  Somewhere. ...
There's a lot of experts who say that the rise in food prices between 2008-2011 led to the Arab Spring uprisings.  So what happens when prices increase by another 20-50%?  The control of Rome was highly dependent on the ability to control the grain coming out of Egypt during the Roman era.  We're in a far more complex environment now than they were, producing a surplus of grain, but dependent on imported cheap oil to make it affordable to the masses.  How long can the Saudi, Iranian, and Kuwaiti governments hold onto power in the face of these pressures?  If they crack, how will that impact their oil exports.  What if Saudi imports dropped proportionate to Libyan exports during their period of unrest?

(http://www.eia.gov/EMEU/cabs/Libya/images/Libya's%20Crude%20Oil%20Production.gif)

But instead of taking about 1.7 mbpd coming off the market, it would be 9.8-10 mbpd or roughly one in 8.5 barrels a day disappearing for several months. 
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 05, 2012, 04:00:34 PM
There's a lot of experts who say that the rise in food prices between 2008-2011 led to the Arab Spring uprisings.  So what happens when prices increase by another 20-50%?  The control of Rome was highly dependent on the ability to control the grain coming out of Egypt during the Roman era.  We're in a far more complex environment now than they were, producing a surplus of grain, but dependent on imported cheap oil to make it affordable to the masses. 

Yep.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on September 05, 2012, 04:52:18 PM
Quote from: Morning Sunshine link=topic=4771.msg420603#msg420603 date=

at TEOTWAWKI, I am going to use my magic to gather the members of this forum into a bubble and protect us and we can use our skills to start the world over ;)
I'll bring my angel farting unicorn :)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexasGirl on September 05, 2012, 05:10:02 PM
Buy popcorn.. if I remember right the average family of 4 goes through 12 pounds a year.

http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2012/09/04/bad-news-for-movie-fans-us-drought-hits-popcorn-crop

It's funny that you should mention popcorn.  I just received 64 lbs of it for LTS, something I wouldn't normally buy much of, but I can always use it for things other than popping.  I'm supposed to get some dent from a friend (helped him pick it) but I'm unsure how much.  He will have a good bit ground into meal, that may be the hold up. 

~TG
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: rikkrack on September 13, 2012, 09:47:02 AM
Last year at this time regular eggs, not free range, not organic, regular whit grade A large eggs were $0.89/dozen. I only notice because people were saying my $2.50 organic free range eggs were way high and if they could get them so cheap why pay more. Said you will never sell them at that rate.

Last night I saw the same type of eggs on SALE for $2.89/dozen. Same person asked if I was still charging $2.50 for eggs, and now saw value. Unfortunately for them, no longer selling as we are dehydrating eggs, and making more pasta for long term storage. That and any feed we do get went up $3/50 lb sack in 2 months.

Family member went on a trip and freaked that milk was over $5.00 a gallon in that area. That was their spark. Asked if they could come over and learn what we are doing for preps. Another grasshopper converted. Hopefully not too late. They thought we were crazy a year ago for prepping.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 13, 2012, 10:16:16 AM
More Expensive Gas Pushes Up US Wholesale Prices
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=161058139
Food prices are likely to rise further in the coming months as the Midwest drought has made corn, soybeans and other grains much more expensive. Sweet corn prices jumped 44 percent last month, the most in a year and a half.

Higher corn prices raise costs for many different foods on grocery store shelves. Corn is used to make everything from cosmetics to cereal, soda, cake mixes and candy bars. It is also used as a feed for cattle and hogs. That means more expensive corn can also push up beef and pork prices.

A measure of food prices in earlier stages of processing rose 2.4 percent last month, the biggest gain in about 18 months. The increase was mostly because the cost of animal feed rose.


Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on September 13, 2012, 12:06:02 PM
Harvest has started. 3 days in the preliminary numbers for corn are about 120 bushels an acre. Instead of 200 like in better years. We are harvesting the river bottoms first, and there was no hail or other damage there. I expect the average to drop further once we get into our other fields.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 13, 2012, 12:42:28 PM
Harvest has started. 3 days in the preliminary numbers for corn are about 120 bushels an acre. Instead of 200 like in better years. We are harvesting the river bottoms first, and there was no hail or other damage there. I expect the average to drop further once we get into our other fields.

Crummy Cheryl... :(

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on September 13, 2012, 06:25:40 PM
Harvest has started. 3 days in the preliminary numbers for corn are about 120 bushels an acre. Instead of 200 like in better years. We are harvesting the river bottoms first, and there was no hail or other damage there. I expect the average to drop further once we get into our other fields.

That's terrible.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on September 13, 2012, 07:19:19 PM
We're pretty lucky to get what we're getting. In the counties just south of us the farmers were averaging 16 bushels. They have given  up and are chopping it as silage and selling it for $35 a ton. (according to our local news station)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: whatmecrazy on September 13, 2012, 08:54:42 PM
All of my farmer friends in Northern Colorado are hurting this year.  So far as to say they only have 50% or less of normal production as far as bushels per acre.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 27, 2012, 09:18:45 AM
Corn supplies in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter, are dropping below last year’s domestic usage for just the third time in half a century http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-27/shrinking-u-s-corn-supply-trails-use-for-first-time-in-16-years.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 27, 2012, 09:48:47 AM
Various things I noted this morning:

October live cattle fell 0.48 cent to $1.2222 a pound; October feeder cattle rose 0.93 cent to $1.4610 a pound; while October lean hogs rose 0.60 cent to 76.87 cents a pound.

As Congress navigates its way through the 2012 Farm Bill process, Food & Water Watch today released a report that delineates the special interest lobbying efforts that shaped the 2008 Farm Bill. Food & Water Watch estimates that $173.5 million was spent by agribusinesses, commodity groups, food manufacturers and others to perpetuate policies that favor the largest food and agriculture industries. You can read it here http://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/tools-and-resources/cultivating-influence/ Look at page 10 Table 5 and I thought it was interesting that 8 of the top 15 companies who lobbied were the beer and soda companies. And page 9, Table 6 of all the seed, fertilizer and biotech companies. I was not surprised to see who was #1.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on September 27, 2012, 03:28:12 PM
My bean field looks so pretty in the morning sun. All those little white flowers everywhere, reflecting the light. Oh wait, those white things are the insides of my bean pods. All my beans are on the ground. Thanks a lot hail.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 27, 2012, 03:30:54 PM
OH NO CHERYL!! How many acres? What did the corn end up at?

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on September 27, 2012, 03:34:16 PM
Our personal 44 at least. Don't think all the businesses damage totals are in yet. We're about 30% done harvesting corn, and looks like the average is around half of normal. Beans are worse than that.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on September 28, 2012, 06:50:19 PM
Various things I noted this morning:

October live cattle fell 0.48 cent to $1.2222 a pound; October feeder cattle rose 0.93 cent to $1.4610 a pound; while October lean hogs rose 0.60 cent to 76.87 cents a pound.

 



The UK has raised an alarm for a "global pork shortage" unfolding as we speak. Bacon could be selling here in the States for $9 a pound before May. And an Easter ham could cost $100.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/24/bacon-sausage-shortage_n_1909609.html?utm_hp_ref=food

Quote
Global Bacon Shortage 'Unavoidable' Next Year, Says U.K.'s National Pig Association

The Huffington Post  |  By Rachel Tepper Posted: 09/24/2012
 
With pork costs rising, Great Britain is facing a bacon and sausage shortage as pig farmers cut back on herd size. But the problem may soon become global.

In a recent press release, the U.K.'s National Pig Association is warning that a "world shortage of pork and bacon next year is now unavoidable":


Quote
New data shows the European Union pig herd is declining at a significant rate, and this is a trend that is being mirrored around the world. Pig farmers have been plunged into loss by high pig-feed costs, caused by the global failure of maize and soya harvests. All main European pig-producing countries report shrinking sow herds.

...



It seems that the price of feed for pigs has gone up so much due to the global drought that an unusually high number of hog farmers around the world have slaughtered most or all of their herds.   



From the Chicago Tribune:

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-09-27/news/sns-rt-us-usa-drought-pork-producersbre88q1h2-20120927_1_hog-producers-prestage-farms-corn-futures

Quote

Drought-hit hog producers face tough choice: struggle or fold

September 27, 2012|P.J. Huffstutter and Theopolis Waters | Reuters

CHICAGO (Reuters) - With the worst drought in half a century driving feed prices sky high, pork producers are facing an untenable choice: drain their savings and gamble on a better future, or sell off their herd and get out of the business altogether.

A disappointing corn harvest has forced the slaughter of sows - adult female hogs that are the building blocks of a herd - at record rates, swelling pork supplies and sending prices plunging.

As a result, consumers could be treated to cheap pork this fall but would have to dig deeper into their wallets next year as prices rise for products from bacon to pork chops to hams....

... So far, the signs are grim. A whopping 9.9 million head of hogs were rushed to market in August, the most ever for that month, according to data analyzed by Reuters....







And China's millions upon millions of pigs are in need of as much corn feed as possible.

http://nationalhogfarmer.com/business/china-s-growing-pork-sector-could-strain-global-corn-supplies

Quote
China’s Growing Pork Sector Could Strain Global Corn Supplies

Sep. 28, 2012  

If China’s pork sector continues to grow at the pace it is today, the industry’s demand for corn within the next five years could have a significant impact on the world’s supply. According to a new report, “The Industrialization of China’s Pork Supply Chain,” issued by Rabobank’s Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Group, China’s corn imports could approach 22 million tons, annually....

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on September 28, 2012, 06:52:04 PM
Sorry, Cheryl. :(
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on September 28, 2012, 07:44:41 PM
Oh no Cheryl!  I'm so sorry.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sweethearts Mom on October 07, 2012, 07:21:32 PM
Ok I went to Sams and Costco....maybe I am out of the loop but they both carry only pinto beans in bulk? Also got on the Dallas LDS cannery...them too. Pinto only.

Is this what you are finding? Where do you buy other beans in bulk?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Louisiana Suvivor on October 07, 2012, 07:55:37 PM
wait you don't like red beans and rice?!?!?!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sweethearts Mom on October 08, 2012, 08:19:15 PM
If you are responding to me I would like to store all kinds of beans. I can only find pinto in bulk
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on October 16, 2012, 03:33:33 PM
http://live.wsj.com/video/michael-belkin-predicts-40-stock-market-drop/A1C9660A-0321-4E82-BA0E-EFD4CD092D40.html?link=MW_article_tboright4#!A1C9660A-0321-4E82-BA0E-EFD4CD092D40

Analysts say the market for rice is poised for a price surge, with futures prices exceeding $20.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on October 16, 2012, 03:36:36 PM
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/commodities/global-commodity-prices-jump-10july-sept-qtr-imf_768796.html

Global commodity prices surged as much as 10 per cent in the three months ended September 2012, as food and energy costs went up amid widespread supply constraints, according to the IMF.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on October 16, 2012, 04:24:43 PM
And so the social security COLA increase was 1.7 percent for 2013. The COLA is based on inflation which the govt pegged at 2%. This is why food, fuel, and housing are not included in the inflation number, the govt couldn't afford the COLA increase.
We all know real inflation is near 10% and I wonder how seniors are going to afford that.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on October 16, 2012, 04:29:30 PM
(http://feww.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/us-drought-map-09oct2012.png)

They don't talk about it much as most of the crops are in or dead, but it is not over. U.S. areas covered by various drought levels increased by about 1 percent since last week. D0 to D4 drought levels now cover 76.72 percent of Contiguous United States.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on October 16, 2012, 04:37:56 PM
(http://feww.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/us-drought-disaster-map-10-10-12.png)

USDA has declared 2,423 counties across the country as [primary and contiguous] agricultural disaster areas so far this year.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on October 16, 2012, 04:54:16 PM
This is what is predicted for 2013 so far.

OFFICIAL Forecast
Jan-Feb-Mar 2013
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4

OFFICIAL Forecast
Apr-May-June 2013
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=7

OFFICIAL Forecast
Jul-Aug-Sept 2013
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=10

OFFICIAL Forecast
Oct-Nov-Dec 2013
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=13

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on October 20, 2012, 10:36:06 AM
1 1/2 days of harvesting left. Our personal field made 13 bushels per acre. (should be high 40's). I'll let ya'll know what our overall average is when we're done. On the bright side......I prepped for this  :)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 03, 2012, 09:59:59 PM
http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/wlds-got-a-wheat-problem_2-ar27889

Mother Nature is bringing the pain to a sector that's already facing a tight world supply situation and, as it gets tighter, prices could be just getting started on their upward climb.

It's too dry in the U.S., Britain, eastern Europe and Australia. And, it's too wet in Argentina, where farmers are struggling to get what crop they have harvested. No matter what the weather extreme, it's creating a consistent likely outcome: Less wheat on the world market in the coming months.


Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on December 04, 2012, 07:54:53 AM

...it's creating a consistent likely outcome: Less wheat on the world market in the coming months.[/i]

Cedar

I guess I need to consider buying another couple of bags of wheat. . .
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LdMorgan on December 05, 2012, 02:14:22 AM
Never lose track of the fact that government figures lie. In the Land of the Free, famine isn't supposed to happen.

A Soviet analyst pointed out (correctly) that the US has had quite a few famines. They just don't get the air-time necessary to make them household topics.

News ignored is news that never happened.

Right now we're in the worst drought in our recorded history, but the gubbermint is putting out figures that would  make Stalin blush.

All we need now are a few five-year plans.

Buy wheat. Buy corn. The lives (and sacred fortunes) you save will be your own.

Keep in mind that the US is now a net food importer...

...and things will get worse before they get better.

http://www.drought.gov/drought/content/products-current-drought-and-monitoring-drought-indicators/us-drought-monitor






Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 05, 2012, 10:40:22 AM
In the Land of the Free, famine isn't supposed to happen.

It has happened in North America more times than most people even have an inkling about.


Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 06, 2012, 10:38:25 PM
Northern farmers who depend on snowpack to moisten the soil before spring planting haven't had much luck, as Midwest cities in Nebraska, Iowa and elsewhere are recording less snow than ever by this time of year. Chicago and Milwaukee haven't had measurable snow at all this season
http://www.seattlepi.com/news/texas/article/US-drought-levels-off-after-2-weeks-of-worsening-4096836.php

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 06, 2012, 10:55:49 PM
http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/in-the-news/us-drought-2012-farm-and-food-impacts.aspx#consumers

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on December 07, 2012, 11:31:09 AM
Cedar-thanks so much for continuing to update this thread with links/articles as you come across them in  your research.  I really appreciate it.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 16, 2012, 02:39:32 PM
Grains futures rose on Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade. Wheat for March delivery rose 5.50 cents to $8.14 a bushel; March corn rose 10.50 cents to $7.3075 a bushel; March oats rose 2.75 cents to $3.8975 a bushel; while January soybeans jumped 19.50 cents to $14.96 a bushel. Prices for wheat, corn and soybeans rose Friday as traders worried that the devastating drought of the summer could be repeated next year. Prices for all three agricultural commodities spiked over the summer as crops were damaged by a long drought throughout the Midwest.  On Friday, Alan Knuckman, chief market strategist at Optionshop in Chicago, noted the unusual lack of snow there so far this season. That's troublesome, Knuckman said, because the snow is needed to help replenish the soil's moisture. The dearth of snow could signal a second straight dry season.

"Now, as it looks, the drought problem could be a recurring theme," Knuckman said in an interview. In a research note, he warned of "another potential price shock of possibly epic proportions" in agriculture

February live cattle rose 1.13 cent to $1.3260 a pound.

Remember, these prices are not retail what we get it for. It will be higher than this.

However, raw sugar and arabica coffee hit their lowest levels in more than two years on concerns about surplus supplies. Orange juice was one market that bucked the broadly lower trend in commodities, rising nearly 3 percent to hit highs not seen since April.

More fine reading:
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/f/food_prices/index.html
http://invezz.com/news/commodities/946-bad-crop-pushes-wholesale-uk-grain-prices-to-record-high
http://stlouis.cbslocal.com/2012/12/07/illinois-climatologist-expects-us-drought-through-2013/
http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/will-drought-stretch-into-2013_2-ar26335

Argentina down 30% http://www.farming.co.uk/news/article/7683

Siberia is not the only problem with reduced wheat production. Wheat production in almost every other breadbasket region – Ukraine, Australia, Argentina and the US – is in trouble because of bad weather. As a result, global wheat supply will fall in the 2012-13 season to 661m tonnes, well below consumption of 688m tonnes, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7cbc024c-2998-11e2-a5ca-00144feabdc0.html




Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on December 16, 2012, 03:22:40 PM
We ended up with about a 40% yield overall. But, prices are going up, up, up so it will probably even out to near normal income.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 16, 2012, 05:43:54 PM
We ended up with about a 40% yield overall. But, prices are going up, up, up so it will probably even out to near normal income.

So how many bushels did you end up not being able to put into the food chain personally? Or what is your average yields?

I am glad that if will work out for the farmers in the end and they won't loose too much income, but for the grocery retail it is gonna hurt.

Our of curiosity, do you store any of your crops for your family consumption?

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on December 17, 2012, 09:15:17 AM
Here is my rough guesstimate (I am not the farms record keeper and never want to be!)- approx 2500 acres of soybeans at a loss of 20 bushels per acre=50,000 fewer bushels than normal. 2500 acres of corn at 80 bushels per acre= 320,000 fewer bushels of corn. We have our own grain bins, so we store our own grain until we truck it to town to sell.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 21, 2012, 11:52:09 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/21/news/economy/milk-prices/index.html?iid=HP_LN&hpt=hp_t3

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on December 22, 2012, 07:16:25 AM
http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/21/news/economy/milk-prices/index.html?iid=HP_LN&hpt=hp_t3

Cedar

great - the government sees a problem, organizes a fix, and then makes the prob worse.  I need a cow.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 31, 2012, 09:59:05 AM
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/30/short-term-agreement-reached-for-farm-legislation/?hpt=hp_bn3

Short term dairy agreement. But they may not vote on it until tonight.... along with the other bill thingy.  ::)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 31, 2012, 10:07:30 AM
Mississippi dropping faster and the  the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers now projects river levels may fall to a point at which many tugboats can’t operate by Jan. 3 or Jan. 4.

http://www.agweb.com/article/mississippi_river_recedes_faster_than_expected_shippers_say/

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 31, 2012, 10:10:27 AM
Feeder Cattle
   Jan-2013    152.575   +0.550
   Mar-2013    155.375   +0.650
   Apr-2013    157.425   +0.625

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 31, 2012, 11:08:19 AM
October 2012.  In North America, the intense drought remains in the U.S. Midwest while the Pacific Northwest conditions eased. In Europe, drought eased slightly in the south and west, particularly in Spain and around Hungary. In Asia, drought remained nearly the same, with slight easing through central Russia. In South America, drought remained nearly the same as last month, impacting most of the continent with the exception of the West Coast and the area around northern Argentina. Likewise, much of non-equatorial Africa is experiencing drought. In Australia, drought continues in the west and intensified in the central and eastern parts of the continent again this month.

(http://www.wrsc.org/sites/default/files/images/2012/countries_by_agricultural_drought_1.png)

Russia and the UK have been having huge floods which have been effecting some grain planting.


World Top Ten Countries by Wheat Production current status
China    115,115,364 - Drought
India    80,680,000 - Drought
Russia       61,739,800 - Flooding
USA       60,314,300 - Drought
France    38,332,200 - Floods
Canada    26,847,600 - seems ok
Germany    25,190,300 - Not sure status
Pakistan    24,033,000 - Not sure status
Australia    21,656,000 - Drought
Turkey    20,600,000 - Drought

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Louisiana Suvivor on December 31, 2012, 06:24:29 PM
that graph is kinda scary Ceder. the sad thing is people in the mainstream don't realise what's going on. all they seee  is the prices going up...thank god we prep. times are gonna get squirrelly.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sweethearts Mom on December 31, 2012, 06:54:28 PM
are we stil exporting? and if so how does stopping that effect US food prices?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 31, 2012, 07:27:57 PM
are we stil exporting? and if so how does stopping that effect US food prices?

From Dec.
http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf


Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on January 01, 2013, 06:06:20 PM
We are still exporting. The Chinese have been buying huge contracts, canceling them, and then repurchasing after the price is driven down.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sweethearts Mom on January 01, 2013, 10:54:17 PM
So with our own food prices going up, why would we not simply not export?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on January 02, 2013, 03:07:58 AM
Because the goal of business is not to make sure food prices stay artificially low in America. The goal is to make money-sell to the highest bidder.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: flippydidit on January 02, 2013, 05:15:44 AM
Because the goal of business is not to make sure food prices stay artificially low in America. The goal is to make money-sell to the highest bidder.

.....cough....federal subsidies?......cough....
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on January 02, 2013, 05:30:18 AM
Federal subsidies help decide what gets grown, but I can sell my grain to who I want to. If one elevator is taking ethanol contracts for $7, one is buying feed corn for $7.10,and the other is trying to fill a Chinese contract for $7.15- bottom line says my grain is going to China. It's business. Fertilizer and seed companies aren't going to give me a break on input costs because I chose to sell to fill contract A vs. contract B for moral reasons. Profitmargins are pretty thin in farming.

if lawmakers prevent exports, then that means they just nationalized the food supply. I disagree with farm subsidies and wish they would go away, but that would mean that consumers would no longer be shielded from the true cost of food.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morgan96 on January 02, 2013, 10:17:09 PM

Thailand Inflation Quickens to 13-Month High on Food Prices
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-02/thai-inflation-quickens-to-13-month-high-on-rising-food-prices.html

Along with the monsoon, Thailand has seasonal riot and unrest.   High food prices aren't bound to help.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 21, 2013, 09:05:06 AM
http://rt.com/news/food-price-speculation-banks-411/

"The year 2013 may see another price hike, following the worst draught in the US in 50 years and poor harvests in Russia and Ukraine. The UN has warned that the world may be approaching a major hunger crisis."


"While nearly a billion people go hungry, Goldman Sachs bankers are feeding their own bonuses by betting on the price of food. Financial speculation is fueling food price spikes and Goldman Sachs is the No, 1 culprit," Christine Haigh of the WDM told the British newspaper The Independent.  -- the same people who were the catalyst of the Great Recession which is the problem we are in now.

They argue that the amount of speculative money is too big in proportion to the physical inventories of the commodities. Deregulation in the late 1990s allowed financial institutions to bet on food prices,  resulting in some $200 billion being poured into the market.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 21, 2013, 10:51:34 PM
http://www.rrstar.com/news/x1781258214/Food-prices-expected-to-increase-because-of-drought-cold
Food prices expected to increase because of drought, cold

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=153&sid=6229824
Wheat gains on concern dry weather will harm crops

Cedar




Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 21, 2013, 11:08:03 PM
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/drmon.gif)

The Plains: The region continued to experience an overall dry pattern during the past seven-day period with the exception of some light-to-moderate rainfall over portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. In Oklahoma, conditions in the extreme southeastern region saw improvements from Extreme Drought (D3) to Severe Drought (D2) as two-to-three inches of rain fell. Conversely, in north-central Oklahoma persistent dry conditions and record low reservoir conditions led Payne County to declare a state of emergency as Lone Chimney Lake receded to eleven feet below normal. The reservoir provides water to nearly 16,000 residents in seven counties. In south-central Kansas, recent rains led to a minor reduction in an area of Exceptional Drought (D4), while the rest of the Plains region is unchanged on this week’s map.  Temperatures were below normal over the western half of the Plains, while the eastern half was above normal for the week.


Three month precipitation prediction
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead06/off06_prcp.gif)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 21, 2013, 11:34:13 PM
****NO IDEA WHY THERE ARE LINES THROUGH THE TEXT. I DID NOT PUT THEM THERE, JUST READ THOUGH THEM ****

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/14/us-drought-2013-cattle-ranchers_n_2469742.html
Donica has sold nearly all of his 800 cattle because there is no pasture to feed them and he now works as a ranch hand nearby to make ends meet until it rains again.The U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to 91 million animals, the smallest in 60 years.

Only a third of the U.S. winter wheat crop at the end of November was rated "good to excellent" by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the crop has deteriorated since then.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-usa-drought-cornbre90h0kr-20130118,0,3852853.story

More than 60 percent of the country was under drought conditions at the drought's peak in 2012 "A large part of the affected area(s) really are going into year two now," he says, adding that some parts of the U.S. are even heading into a third year.

The Palmer drought index, which tracks rain and temperatures to gauge the extent of drought conditions, fell to -4 in July, said Anderson, who correctly predicted an end to a La Nina weather pattern last year. History shows that in the years that the index had reached that level before, it took 18 to 51 months for soil moisture to recover, he said.

Parts of Iowa, which produces almost double the corn output of Argentina, the world’s third-largest shipper, and almost as much soybeans as China, was still in extreme drought as of Jan. 1, according to the government-backed Drought Monitor.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexDaddy on January 22, 2013, 07:24:49 AM
****NO IDEA WHY THERE ARE LINES THROUGH THE TEXT. I DID NOT PUT THEM THERE, JUST READ THOUGH THEM ****
Fixed it. I changed the [ ] around the s to ( ) in "area(s)"
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 22, 2013, 08:40:37 AM
Thank you. Apparently typing in the dark may not be the best  ;)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 24, 2013, 09:57:32 PM
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-20/u-dot-k-dot-winter-wheat-shows-worst-fungus-symptoms-ever-recorded

The U.K. is the third-largest wheat producer in the 27- nation European Union and 97% of their crops affected.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 24, 2013, 10:15:18 PM
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/16/1024581/un-warns-of-food-crisis-in-2013-if-extreme-weather-persists/

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 24, 2013, 10:32:41 PM
US Crop forecast 2013
http://www.agweb.com/blog/Farmland_Forecast_148/

Farmers are removing soybeans and cotton from their planting rotations in order to plant as much corn as possible. The Corn Belt is also moving farther west and north into areas that may have never planted corn

Increased food prices could also lead to increased instability around the world. One study concluded that riots become more likely when Food Price Index levels surpass 210 points. Currently at 216 points, Food Price Index levels are 22 points away from those that some say helped spark the riots leading to the Arab Spring.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: eph2 on January 28, 2013, 10:53:27 AM
Not a big global perspective, but I nearly choked last night when Walmart wanted $10 for 2 pounds of HAMBURGER!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: rikkrack on January 28, 2013, 01:45:55 PM
Not a big global perspective, but I nearly choked last night when Walmart wanted $10 for 2 pounds of HAMBURGER!

Stay tuned it will continue to go up. Everything is going to go up.

We bought from local farmer. 1/2 side beef and paid like 2.30/lb for steaks, roast, ribs, and burger when all said and done. Burger high, but evened out when price of steaks figured in.  And I contributed nothing to government machine, or corporate giants. No hormones and no toxic gick and fillers.

Find yourself a farmers market or local farmer.  Too much meat, split with 1 or 4 other families. We did that with the 1/2. Our family got half and 2 others each got a 1/4.

Or just be like Cedar and raise your own....
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexDaddy on January 28, 2013, 01:47:44 PM
...just be like Cedar....
A lofty and worthy goal.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 28, 2013, 03:23:02 PM
A lofty and worthy goal.
You guys make me feel slightly weird when you say things like that, but happy if I inspire someone to try something.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: hoosiermom on January 28, 2013, 08:09:18 PM
Federal subsidies help decide what gets grown, but I can sell my grain to who I want to. If one elevator is taking ethanol contracts for $7, one is buying feed corn for $7.10,and the other is trying to fill a Chinese contract for $7.15- bottom line says my grain is going to China. It's business. Fertilizer and seed companies aren't going to give me a break on input costs because I chose to sell to fill contract A vs. contract B for moral reasons. Profitmargins are pretty thin in farming.

if lawmakers prevent exports, then that means they just nationalized the food supply. I disagree with farm subsidies and wish they would go away, but that would mean that consumers would no longer be shielded from the true cost of food.

cheryl1, well said.  I once talked with a dairy farmer who let our preschool class come visit for a field trip.  It was great for the kids who lived in the city who never really saw this kind of thing.  Unfortunately, they may be out of business now.  The thing I took away was that while the price of a gallon of milk was rising, they didn't see any of that come back to them. 

Thank you for farming - it is a hard job and we appreciate you for doing it!!  I am going to try my garden again, revved up now after reading this thread.  Hubby was ordering seeds tonight!!  We are in NE Indiana, and I can tell you that it is very dry up here, and people are noticing it.  Very little snow this winter.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: hoosiermom on January 28, 2013, 08:11:34 PM
You guys make me feel slightly weird when you say things like that, but happy if I inspire someone to try something.

Cedar

Cedar, honestly, I think of you all the time!  You give us the strength to try, even though we may fail (speaking for myself here) miserably the first time.  We will try again! :)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 28, 2013, 08:43:59 PM
A couple days ago I heard from a trusted source that a major store was going to start rationing sugar and a few other commodities. I thought this was odd since we had done so well on sugar lately and prices were dropping. But ...

Raw sugar futures in New York vaulted higher on hefty volumeon speculative short-covering, after the large short position in the market had prompted some to unwind their bearish positions. Speculators increased their net short position in sugar to the biggest in seven years on ICE Futures U.S. in the volatile week to Jan. 22, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.  Volume was nearly 70 percent above the 30-day norm,
preliminary Thomson Reuters data showed. "Potentially there's more to be done," said Michael McDougall, a vice president at Newedge USA, referring to the expectation for more short-covering.


Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 28, 2013, 08:46:12 PM
On Friday... Cattle surged the most in six months on signs of shrinking animal supplies in the U.S. and higher demand for beef as Japan eased restrictions for imports.

From Bloomsburg.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 28, 2013, 08:55:20 PM
Prices for corn, soybeans, alfalfa hay, and other hay were expected to increase in Wisconsin from November to December, while prices for oats and milk were expected to decrease during the same time. Corn in Wisconsin sold for an average price of $6.95 per bushel in mid-December. This was five cents higher than November's price and $1.22 more than the price in December of the previous year. Nationwide corn prices averaged $7.01 per bushel in mid-December.

The average price for soybeans in Wisconsin was $14.50 per bushel in mid-December, 30 cents above the November price and $3.10 higher than the price in December 2011. Across the U.S., soybeans sold for an average price of $14.70 per bushel in mid-December.

Alfalfa hay in Wisconsin sold for an average price of $235.00 per ton in mid-December, $45.00 higher than in November and $105.00 above the price in December 2011. The average price for other hay types in Wisconsin was $155.00 per ton in mid-December, $35.00 above November's price and $65.00 higher than in December 2011.


I am sure the states south of that are the same or WAY worse.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 28, 2013, 09:20:06 PM
January 23, 2013 Report from Ukraine: "In line with our view for wheat and barley exports to dry out quickly after shipments out of the country surpassed the limit set by the government in September, we do not see the recent ban on wheat exports as unexpected and believe the country has run out of wheat to sell on the global markets."
The Ukraine is #6 in world wheat production. Currently banned from any sales out of country. Export: 5.5 million tons. Domestic consumption: 14.1 million tons

January 23, 2013 Report 
We revised down our 2012/13 forecast for Russia wheat production as dry and hot weather have continued to damage crops in key growing regions such as the Volga Valley, the Urals and Siberia. We now expect output to drop 23.8% y-o-y to 42.0mn tonnes in 2012/13, compared with a previous expectation for output of 50.0mn tonnes. The drought is expected to slash wheat yields by almost 40% yo-y, to 1.87 tonnes/hectare (ha), according to the US Department of Agriculture, while area harvested is also estimated to decline relative to 2011/12. The steep drop in production will leave the Russian production surplus at a relatively low level of 4.4mn tonnes, compared with the 10-year average of11.0mn tonnes.
#8 Russia, Currently banned from selling wheat put of country. Export: 4 million tons. Domestic consumption: 38 million tons

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 28, 2013, 09:23:45 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/goldman-sachs-sees-2012-13-global-cocoa-shortage-of-100-000-tons.html
Goldman Sachs Sees 2012-13 Global Cocoa Shortage of 100,000 Tons

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on January 29, 2013, 05:49:14 AM
Beef is becoming a luxury food. . . even the burger.  I've been waiting for a good "sale" since July and haven't really seen anything. . . It makes me glad that hubs is a hunter and we've got a freezer full of venison.   I really expected to him to see more yahoo's out there who didn't know what they were doing hunting this year--but actually he said they saw fewer folks.  I guess the ones who "come up" from the city didn't as much.  I am betting there will be an uptick in locals who haven't touched their rifle in years hitting the hills this coming fall. . .

As for the sugar--I guess I better pick up a couple of the 25lb bags next time I'm at the big box stores. . .
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: hoosiermom on January 29, 2013, 11:36:25 AM
And I just heard on the radio that the Mississippi is shut down for a 3rd day due to the barge/oil incident.  Probably not good for river transportation...  And this is on top of the problems the Mississippi has had w/ the low water levels..
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: rikkrack on January 29, 2013, 01:23:11 PM
WOW, dunno what even to say. Could it ever get this bad here?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korean-cannibalism-fears-amid-claims-starving-people-forced-to-desperate-measures-8468781.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korean-cannibalism-fears-amid-claims-starving-people-forced-to-desperate-measures-8468781.html)

Makes you want to put a bigger garden in just in case
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexasGirl on January 29, 2013, 09:24:25 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/goldman-sachs-sees-2012-13-global-cocoa-shortage-of-100-000-tons.html
Goldman Sachs Sees 2012-13 Global Cocoa Shortage of 100,000 Tons

Cedar

At least 100% (powdered) cocao bean stores very well, some folks claim it's like salt or sugar when stored with desiccant and O2 absorbers.

As for the sugar--I guess I better pick up a couple of the 25lb bags next time I'm at the big box stores. . .

FWIW, Look for "cane sugar."  If it doesn't say "cane" on the label, it's most likely GMO beet sugar.

~TG
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 29, 2013, 09:34:49 PM
FWIW, Look for "cane sugar."  If it doesn't say "cane" on the label, it's most likely GMO beet sugar.

Yeppers. 99.9999999999% of the time.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Hootie on January 30, 2013, 07:45:48 AM
FWIW, Look for "cane sugar."  If it doesn't say "cane" on the label, it's most likely GMO beet sugar.

~TG

didn't know that. good point!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexDaddy on January 30, 2013, 08:01:06 AM
I never buy any sugar that is not Imperial Pure Cane Sugar, and it is 100% GMO free.

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on January 30, 2013, 06:56:51 PM
WOW, dunno what even to say. Could it ever get this bad here?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korean-cannibalism-fears-amid-claims-starving-people-forced-to-desperate-measures-8468781.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korean-cannibalism-fears-amid-claims-starving-people-forced-to-desperate-measures-8468781.html)

Makes you want to put a bigger garden in just in case


North Korea has had reports of isolated cannibalism happening in and around the labor camps for at least a decade now. Usually these stories involved a pregnant woman who gave birth to a stillborn child, and the parents opted to eat the child rather than starve.

But it now seems the cannibalism in that nation might be growing. Not just still born babies, and not just the labor camps.


Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 30, 2013, 07:19:17 PM
But it now seems the cannibalism in that nation might be growing. Not just still born babies, and not just the labor camps.

I don't remember if I posted it here, but North Korea's government apparently rations its food through the government and you can only get food through the government. And the government only allows 700 calories per person per day for years. Where most people require 1,200-2,000 a day.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 30, 2013, 11:30:13 PM
From my crop reports site:

CORN, SOY RISE ON ARGENTINE CROP WEATHER WORRY
Corn futures climbed to a seven-week high and soybeans a six-week top as concerns increased that dry weather will cut production in major exporter Argentina. Worries about dryness, coupled with technical and fund buying, also overshadowed weakening demand for corn used to make ethanol, traders said.

U.S. ethanol production slumped to its lowest level since the government started collecting data more than two years ago,
according to the Energy Information Administration. "The dry growing conditions are attracting a lot ofattention," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier, analyst for Summit Commodity Brokerage. "There is little rain forecasted there for the next two weeks and they have already gone four weeks without rainfall."

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 31, 2013, 10:28:12 AM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/oct/14/un-global-food-crisis-warning
UN warns of looming worldwide food crisis in 2013

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), designated the entire state of Indiana, which includes 92 counties, as a primary natural disaster area due to damages and losses caused by the combined effects of excessive heat, frost, freeze and drought that began Feb. 1, 2012, and continues. Agricultural producers in contiguous counties in adjacent states are also eligible for low-interest emergency loans.

AEP River Operations LLC was not using all of its towboats and moved workers around to find work for them as drought reduced the number of barges moving on the Mississippi River. Profits that would normally be generated in the previous year were not available this January to sustain the company until work picks up. The vice president of Gulf operations for American Commercial stated that the drought cost the company roughly $27 million in lost business and revenue as boats and workers sit idle. The company would normally be hiring in January, but is not this year. Washington Post (D.C.), Jan. 14, 2013

The corn surplus carryover was just 602 million bushels, as drought in 2012 reduced corn production, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The amount is quite a bit lower than the carryover last year, which was 900 million bushels. High corn prices near $8 per bushel are possible throughout 2013. Des Moines Register (Iowa), Jan. 12, 2013. Affected Areas Alaska; Alabama; Arkansas; Arizona; California; Colorado; Connecticut; District of Columbia; Delaware; Florida; Georgia; Hawaii; Iowa; Idaho; Illinois; Indiana; Kansas; Kentucky; Louisiana; Massachusetts; Maryland; Maine; Michigan; Minnesota; Missouri; Mississippi; Montana; North Carolina; North Dakota; Nebraska; New Hampshire; New Jersey; New Mexico; Nevada; New York; Ohio; Oklahoma; Oregon; Pennsylvania; Rhode Island; South Carolina; South Dakota; Tennessee; Texas; Utah; Virginia; Vermont; Washington; Wisconsin; West Virginia; Wyoming.

January 10, 2013 - The U.S. Department of Agriculture declared 597 counties in portions of 14 states as primary natural disaster areas, due to severe (D2) drought for at least eight weeks and heat. The primary counties were in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas and Utah.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 31, 2013, 10:32:11 AM
Not that I am unhappy it is Cargill (think of them as Monsanto friends)

Drought has contributed to the shrinking of the cattle population in the U.S., leading Cargill Inc. to announce that it will “indefinitely idle” a beef processing plant in Plainview, Texas on Feb. 1. Roughly 2,000 people work at the plant. The U.S. has a greater capacity for beef processing than is needed since the cattle herd has been on a downward trend in recent years and has reached its lowest point since 1952. StarTribune (Minn.), Jan. 17, 2013
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 31, 2013, 10:33:38 AM
A POET Biorefining plant in Macon, Missouri was struggling to get sufficient supplies of corn for ethanol production and opted to stop production on Feb. 1, 2013. The facility will remain open for plant upgrades after Feb. 1 with all employees working. The plant spokesman said, “There's just really no corn in the immediate [Macon] area available. It proved to be difficult to find that corn at a competitive price." It cost too much to ship corn in from other parts of the country. The plant will reopen when reasonably priced corn becomes available in the area. Cape Girardeau Southeast Missourian (Mo.), Jan. 28, 2013

An ethanol plant belonging to White Energy stopped production on January 7, due to the high cost of grains, according to the vice president of the company. The plant’s 41 employees will do some maintenance work and clean for the time being. Production will remain at a standstill through the end of the first quarter and possibly until October. A couple of weeks ago, a beef processing plant in Plainview announced that it would close indefinitely since there was less demand for beef processing as drought continues to shrink the beef herd. According to Google Maps, Plainview had a population of 22,194 people in the 2000 census. KJTV-TV 34 Fox Lubbock (Texas), Jan. 29, 2013


http://www.chron.com/news/us/article/Ethanol-industry-turns-to-plant-residue-scraps-4237997.php?cmpid=usworldhcat
DES MOINES, Iowa

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 31, 2013, 10:35:39 AM
Hay stocks on Dec. 1, 2012 were 76.5 million tons, the lowest point in record keeping dating back to 1957, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The 10-year average of December hay stocks was about 106 million tons, not including figures for 2011 and 2012 because drought reduced stocks during those years. In 2011, drought in the Southern Plains drew down stocks 11 percent from 2010, while in 2012, drought in the Midwest pulled hay stocks down another 16 percent for a total decline of 25 percent since December 2010. With low hay stocks, prices are expected to continue to climb through the winter. The Cattle Site (Chicago, Ill.), Jan. 21, 2013

Areas affected - Alaska; Alabama; Arkansas; Arizona; California; Colorado; Connecticut; District of Columbia; Delaware; Florida; Georgia; Hawaii; Iowa; Idaho; Illinois; Indiana; Kansas; Kentucky; Louisiana; Massachusetts; Maryland; Maine; Michigan; Minnesota; Missouri; Mississippi; Montana; North Carolina; North Dakota; Nebraska; New Hampshire; New Jersey; New Mexico; Nevada; New York; Ohio; Oklahoma; Oregon; Pennsylvania; Rhode Island; South Carolina; South Dakota; Tennessee; Texas; Utah; Virginia; Vermont; Washington; Wisconsin; West Virginia; Wyoming


Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 06, 2013, 06:19:28 PM
Man trampled as hundreds of desperate Greeks scuffle for food
http://rt.com/news/greece-scuffle-free-food-581/

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 11, 2013, 11:02:14 AM
http://rt.com/business/news/russia-abolish-crops-import-duties-922/

Russia might abolish cereal import duties in two months. This could lead to increases in world grain prices, according to experts. The decision would abolish duties on wheat, rye, barley and corn for a period through to August 1, 2013.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Thox Spuddy on February 11, 2013, 07:58:29 PM
World wheat production down, led by Australiahttp://www.agprofessional.com/resource-centers/wheat/key-reports/World-wheat-production-down-led-by-Australia-179305171.html (http://www.agprofessional.com/resource-centers/wheat/key-reports/World-wheat-production-down-led-by-Australia-179305171.html)

http://www.agricorner.com/world-top-ten-wheat-producers-2010/ (http://www.agricorner.com/world-top-ten-wheat-producers-2010/)
http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=wheat&graph=production
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 22, 2013, 11:07:47 AM
As of February 12, about 56% of the United States continued to be in drought conditions. While the percentage of area in drought has declined about 5.4 percentage points since January 1, forecasts point to continued dryness in the central and southern Great Plains.

Weighted by seeded area, the hard-red winter wheat states of Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma have 50% of their wheat crop rated in poor or very poor condition compared to just 10% at this time last year. Spring rains will be especially important in the Great Plains where elevated levels of abandonment seem likely.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: hoosiermom on February 26, 2013, 08:42:40 PM
As of February 12, about 56% of the United States continued to be in drought conditions. While the percentage of area in drought has declined about 5.4 percentage points since January 1, forecasts point to continued dryness in the central and southern Great Plains.

Weighted by seeded area, the hard-red winter wheat states of Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma have 50% of their wheat crop rated in poor or very poor condition compared to just 10% at this time last year. Spring rains will be especially important in the Great Plains where elevated levels of abandonment seem likely.

Cedar

I think the recent snowstorms have helped those areas of Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma, at least in the drought sense.  We are technically out of a drought here in NE Indiana, but in all honesty, I think we are still behind.  Low rivers, low ponds, some ponds that have not returned, etc.  We could use a good rain.

Food prices continue to go up, and I see it mostly in the form of repackaging - same price for a lesser amount of the product.  Just trying very hard to use coupons and buy on sale.  Always, always, always on sale.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 15, 2013, 10:19:07 AM
(http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/20130312drmon_460x300.jpg)
March 12, 2013 map

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Generally 0.5 to 1.0 inches fell on the D0 areas, but the precipitation was not enough to change the intensity or coverage of the dry areas substantially for the northeast.  Moderate rains (0.5-2.0 inches) fell across central Virginia, prompting the removal of the D0 (abnormal dryness) in this region.

Dry conditions continued across Florida, prompting the expansion of D1 across Collier, Glades, and Charlotte Counties.  Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values and low water levels in Big Cypress National Preserve support the latest depiction, with burn bans being the latest impact to emerge.  Severe drought (D2) was expanded over Lake County as well.

The drought depiction across the Carolinas was left unchanged as the light rains that fell were not enough to warrant changes to the depiction.  Some streamflows have not responded to the recent (90-day) wet period.

Despite significant rains (0.5 – 3.0 inches) in the mid-West, only minor improvements were also pursued over Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.  According to some local National Weather Service employees and state climatologists, the frozen ground (10-20 inches of frozen soils) is preventing deep soil moisture recharge.  Streams and rivers rose and fell rapidly, indicting excessive runoff and lack of penetration, along with some reports of basement flooding as the water cannot go into the soil.

Southwest - Rains there exceeded 2.0 inches for a few reporting locations.  The same storm system brought some snows to higher terrain of Arizona, but not enough to significantly increase the surface water supply forecast or the reservoir storage.   Nevada and New Mexico are also experiencing very low reservoir levels, so the current depiction, which contains significant amounts of extreme drought, seems accurate.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 15, 2013, 10:51:08 AM
Wheat articles this morning...

"....dynamics would appear to leave the UK facing hefty wheat imports in 2013-14 too."

In January, Germany once again topped the bill as the origin of UK wheat imports, topping 100,000 tonnes for a second successive month, although purchases from Canada, another source of high protein milling wheat, fell back to 20,836 tonnes.

In December, UK imports from Canada topped 55,000 tonnes.

Imports from France, a source of softer milling wheat, were unusually high in January, reaching 61,393 tonnes, more than double the December figure.

Given the uncertainties that still exist regarding 2013 wheat production prospects in the U.S. central and southern plains for hard red winter wheat, and also for other major World wheat exporters such as Australia, Argentina, and the Black Sea Region countries, U.S. wheat prices in 2013 are likely to continue to remain high through at least the winter and early spring months.  Extremely tight U.S. corn supplies through at least late spring-early summer 2013 are also likely to provide cross market support for 2013 wheat prices. 

With risky prospects for U.S. winter wheat growing conditions in the western plains, the following analysis estimates that there is a 25% chance of a short wheat crop in the U.S. for the 2012/13 marketing year, along with a 65% probability of an average crop and a 10% probability of a large crop.  If a short wheat crop in the U.S. is combined with short wheat crops in other major World wheat exporters, then the increase in U.S. wheat exports that would likely occur could reduce U.S. wheat stocks-to-use levels down to near or even below record lows

"About 61 percent of the country is mired in a dry spell that the government says will last at least until March in states growing the most winter wheat," Bloomberg reports. In Kansas, the heartland of US wheat production, the problem is particularly bad—the entire state is in drought. Winter wheat goes dormant during the winter months before resuming growth in the spring, so it's still too early to say what the effect will be on crop yields. But in some places, damage is already severe. Rosie Meier, a grain merchandieser at the Great Bend Co-op in Great Bend, Kansas, told Bloomberg, "About 30 percent of the winter wheat in central Kansas has already failed, with further damage likely unless there is rain."

What farmers in North America are currently saying http://www.agweb.com/blog/Virtual_Wheat_Tour_234/ It should get updated soon.

But then I get reports that India, the US , the 'stans, Ukraine, Australia are doing fine in their wheat.

Cedar

** I am bookmarking http://www.uswheat.org/reports/harvest for this summer so I can find it again
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexasGirl on March 28, 2013, 10:02:44 PM
So, today I was in my favorite neighborhood (HEB) grocery store back home.  I'm not a big bean eater but do occasionally cook some.  Looking at the shelves, the one pound Anasazi beans were marked $2.99, this same package in the same store was $1.88 a few months ago.  Quite the hefty jump, percentage wise.  The bin was full, though.

~TG
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: AllYouNeedIsLove on March 28, 2013, 10:18:34 PM
grain prices down across the board today on the quarterly stocks report. Corn was limit down with synthetics pricing in another 20 cent fall after market. Tomorrow's planting report will be more big news for the market, but I'm 60% confident corn will NOT be limit down.

We'll see where we go from here - with record crop in SA this winter it gave the market a little bit of breathing room, but prices will start north again if we look like we're drying out in April/May time frame.

JMHO don't look like a top to me...looks like breathing room before we start a-runnin' again.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on March 29, 2013, 06:20:28 AM
So, today I was in my favorite neighborhood (HEB) grocery store back home.  I'm not a big bean eater but do occasionally cook some.  Looking at the shelves, the one pound Anasazi beans were marked $2.99, this same package in the same store was $1.88 a few months ago.  Quite the hefty jump, percentage wise.  The bin was full, though.

~TG


 Watch corn prices in April and keep your eye on Drought conditions world-wide,food is the greatest weapon,just look at N.Korea and how crazy they are!My leap logic may confuse some but then that's why we are all different in this world. Watch my six and be among knowing friends with hope there is hope!

                       kiteflyer
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: JC2 on March 29, 2013, 06:33:53 AM
@kiteflyer - It is ironic you say that. I was just telling a couple of friends that the crazy talk from Korea has more to do with food than anything else. I do worry though that the young leader is backing himself into a corner that he will not be able to get out of and that will be devastating.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: AllYouNeedIsLove on March 29, 2013, 07:46:26 PM
Interesting when you dig into the corn and soy planting intentions a bit. Corn intentions are up a bit nationwide, but are down 0.65 million acres from 80.95 to 80.3. So all of the increase in acreage is coming from low yield states, with many corn belt farmers going back to soy after many consecutive corn years (i.e. soil is pooped out). Soy is down in the corn belt too though so some of those fields are going to alfafa and/or just taken out of production.

My neighborhood wasn't even in the worst of the drought (SW Wisconsin) but a lot of guys around here aren't super excited to be planting even with corn prices at $7. I guess you last year was pretty tough on folks with the drought and all.

I always laugh when I see these big market reactions to inventory and intention reports - it's like a fart in the wind compared to weather. People make a big deal out of an extra 500,000 acres one way or another - but a bad year of weather like last year is like losing 20,000,000 acres. Literally. I gotta think we've drawn down supplies in China at this point too, and prices are just going to go higher from here. Conventional market wisdom is the opposite - as evidence by the future strip, but I don't think these prices are anywhere close to being done with their surge.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on April 01, 2013, 05:09:47 AM
@kiteflyer - It is ironic you say that. I was just telling a couple of friends that the crazy talk from Korea has more to do with food than anything else. I do worry though that the young leader is backing himself into a corner that he will not be able to get out of and that will be devastating.


I'll bet you're right. North Korea can only eat (for the most part) what it can get from the outside world. And China is happy to sell grain to North Korea (at a profit) only as long as China has a grain surplus. All news reports indicate China is hurting on grain, and so whatever they do sell to NK will be at reduced volumes and higher prices. The likely result of all this is that when China is hurting for grain, North Korea is in agony. 

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 01, 2013, 09:58:37 AM
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/drmon.gif)

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: About a half-inch of precipitation fell over the drought areas in the Northeast, which was enough to offset additional degradation for at least another week.  Stream flows are close to normal for much of this region, except for northern Pennsylvania and adjacent portions of New York, where stream flow values are running between the 5th and 10th percentiles of the historical record.

As recently as January 29, 2013, 82.4 percent of Georgia was in severe drought or worse.

Missouri is experiencing its coldest March in at least 17 years. For the most part, vegetation remains dormant and evaporative rates have been kept to a minimum.



Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: d3nni5 on April 01, 2013, 10:06:54 AM

Missouri is experiencing its coldest March in at least 17 years. For the most part, vegetation remains dormant and evaporative rates have been kept to a minimum.

Cedar


I've noticed the same thing.   I look forward to the Redbud (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cercis_canadensis (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cercis_canadensis)) every year.   Seems to be running behind this year.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on April 01, 2013, 06:27:43 PM

I've noticed the same thing.   I look forward to the Redbud (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cercis_canadensis (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cercis_canadensis)) every year.   Seems to be running behind this year.


You need 3 nights in a row of temps above freezing.

Here in New England, the maple sugar season has been phenomenal this year because of the prolonged cold. Maple harvesting requires that the temps every night swing below the freezing point, and then every day to rise well above the freezing point. This yo-yo of freeze/thaw every night/day is what causes the maple sap to keep flowing up and down the tree trunks. The sap-collecting buckets will fill only when the sap is moving downward. The sun rises, warms the tree, and the sap flows upward to the dormant buds. Then the sun sets, the temps fall below freezing, and the sap sinks back down the trunk to the roots again. It's this downward flow which fills the buckets during the dead of night, so you need to get up at the crack of dawn and empty the buckets from off the trees. (I am told the buckets can also fill during the daytime when the sap is moving upward, but the downward flow from the night time cycle is supposedly more advantageous.) The sun again rises, the sap again flows back upward to the dormant buds, and  the sap will just sort of ..... hang around up in the branches all day. If the temps AGAIN drop below freezing that night, the sap AGAIN, sinks back down to the roots and fills the buckets. If there is just one night when the temps remain above freezing all night long, then the sap does NOT rush back down the trunk again into the roots, and your buckets do NOT get filled that night. No biggie. One missed night isn't a problem because tomorrow the temps will likely drop once again and give you another round of full buckets.

WHEN WILL THE BUDS FINALLY BURST INTO BLOOM????

The tree wants three consecutive day/night cycles (a full 72 hours) for the temps to remain ABOVE freezing, non-stop. Each night that the temps stay above freezing, the sap remains way up in the branches, trying to deliver food --a very high-energy sugar-laden form of food-- to the sleeping buds. And after three whole days of the sap hanging around way up top, that's when the buds wake up, take the food, the buds burst forth, and maple sugaring season is now officially over.


(I am also told that during the autumn, the freeze/thaw cycle happens again each night, but the sap that flows up and down the trunks in autumn is very bitter and not worth anyone's time.)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: d3nni5 on April 02, 2013, 08:25:52 AM

You need 3 nights in a row of temps above freezing.


I did not know that.   Very cool.   In fact, after tomorrow I think our forcast just may accomodate us!   Woohoo.   Hillsides will be purple all over by this time next week!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 10, 2013, 07:25:17 PM
Plains wheat battling a deepfreeze
"It's like adding insult to injury. After a downright painful growing season in much of the Plains, now the region's winter wheat crop is feeling the sting of freezing temperatures at another critical juncture in crop development."

http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/plains-wheat-battling-a-deepfreeze_2-ar30945

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 10, 2013, 07:30:16 PM
Corn pops on domestic supply worries
http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/corn/cn-pops-on-domestic-supply-wries_9-ar30946

http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/usda-releases-bullish-cn-data_2-ar30941

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 10, 2013, 07:37:02 PM
Drought report April 2, 2013

The Northeast: Light precipitation, on the order of a few tenths of an inch, fell on most locations from Pennsylvania and New Jersey northeastward to the Canadian border, with totals approaching an inch in a few locales. Nonetheless, parts of the lower Northeast have received 2 to 4 inches less precipitation than normal since the beginning of the year, so abnormal dryness was expanded into these regions.

The Southeast: Areas of ongoing dryness from North Carolina southwestward into central Georgia generally recorded 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, with the larger amounts falling across Georgia and western South Carolina. Drought designations were unchanged in these areas. Farther south, only isolated light rain fell on southeastern Georgia and the Florida Peninsula, leading to some expansion of moderate drought in east-central and southeastern Florida. Many locations on the Florida Peninsula are 4 to 8 inches below normal since the beginning of the year, and a couple of wildfires have been reported in Collier and Miami-Dade Counties in southern Florida.

The Upper Midwest: Only a few tenths of an inch of precipitation were reported in a few areas from Illinois and Iowa northward through the Great Lakes region and Minnesota, keeping dryness and drought unchanged from last week. Most of central and northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, central and northern Iowa, and southwestern Minnesota received no measurable precipitation.

The Lower Mississippi Valley/Delta region: No appreciable precipitation fell on the Louisiana Bayou last week. Over the last six months, this region has received 8 to locally 16 inches less precipitation than normal, with deficits of 1 to locally 4 inches accumulating in the last 30 days. As a result, abnormal dryness was introduced in the region this week.

The Rockies and Intermountain West: Scattered light precipitation fell on the northern half of the Plains and central sections of the Intermountain West, including most of the Great Basin. Most other locations reported no measurable precipitation. D0 conditions were extended into southeastern Washington, where precipitation shortfalls now exceed 2 inches since the beginning of the year, with deficits reaching up to 6 inches in some of the higher elevations. In other areas, dryness and drought remained the same as last week.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 10, 2013, 07:56:57 PM
Sugar & Sweetners Outlook http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/1059159/sssm295.pdf

Vegetables and Pulses Outlook: http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/1068084/vgs-353.pdf
Weather impacted production of fresh vegetables in U.S. desert growing regions, Mexico and Florida in early 2013 and February shipments of fresh market vegetables were 14 percent below comparable levels from the previous year. The first quarter 2013 grower price index for all vegetables is up 83 percent compared with the first quarter of 2012 and up almost 60 percent above fourth quarter 2012

Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook: http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/1066996/fts-355.pdf
Warm, dry weather reduces total U.S. citrus production in 2012/13.

Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry Outlook: http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/1058622/ldpm225.pdf

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on April 11, 2013, 05:36:21 PM
Just heard from the grain elevator gal that corn and bean prices should stay high this year. Apparently the ground is still frozen 6 inches down over much if the plains, so all this spring moisture is running off and not helping soil saturation.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 17, 2013, 11:25:45 AM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/oct/14/un-global-food-crisis-warning
"With food consumption exceeding the amount grown for six of the past 11 years, countries have run down reserves from an average of 107 days of consumption 10 years ago to under 74 days recently. -- his year, for the sixth time in 11 years, the world will consume more food than it produces, largely because of extreme weather in the US and other major food-exporting countries. " (It is under that now -- this was written 7 months ago)

""Food shortages undermined earlier civilisations. We are on the same path. Each country is now fending for itself. The world is living one year to the next."

Egypt http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-09/egypt-s-wheat-farmers-hobbled-by-fuel-shortages-as-silos-run-low.html

Israel The drought conditions that impacted southern Israel during the winter of 2012/13 will reduce the MY 2013/14 harvest by 40 percent

Russia/Ukraine - Russian feed wheat prices are expected to reach new highs this year due to tight supply and worsening prospects for the 2013 winter crops. This winter's grain harvest may be hurt by cold weather with a lack of snow in some parts of Russia's "bread basket" regions, according to SovEcon. The percentage of plantings, deemed to be in a poor state, does not exceed 8-9% as of now.

USA - As of May 12, 2013, only 43 percent of the nation’s spring wheat crop had been seeded, compared with a five-year average of 63%. Not surprisingly planting was most delayed in states that had very late winters. In Minnesota only 19 percent was seeded and in North Dakota only 26%. "If wheat is not planted by the first or second week in May, yields start falling off," says Krueger. "I suspect we are already at that point."

USDA’s recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released May 10 showed that hard red winter wheat production fell sharply due to persistent drought, particularly in western Kansas.

As of May 5, 2013, 12 percent of the U.S. corn crop was planted – only 8 percent in Iowa, 7 percent in Illinois and 8 percent in Indiana.”

Total U.S. wheat use for 2013-14 is projected to drop 7 percent below the previous year. USDA cut projected feed and residual use for wheat by 70 million bushels, noting that larger supplies and lower prices for feed grains in 2013-14 will likely limit wheat feeding by late summer.

China - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-07/china-s-coldest-winter-in-28-years-hurts-wheat-crop-center-says.html

EU-27 Oilseeds area in MY 2012/13 is forecast to decrease by 1.8 percent and is expected to total 11.4 million ha. The 4 percent decline rapeseed acreage is caused by unfavorably wet planting conditions (Denmark), winterkill (mainly in Bulgaria and Hungary), and drought (Romania). A marginal increase of sunflower area is projected due to re-sowing of rapeseed winterkill areas. Soybeans, which are not widely planted in the EU, are also expected to decline by 5 percent.
Not food, but food is mentioned http://www.france24.com/en/20130517-excessive-demand-wipes-out-venezuala-toilet-paper

http://www.fao.org/docrep/017/al998e/al998e.pdf

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on May 17, 2013, 02:45:01 PM
We're about 1/2 done planting, but now rained out for the rest of the day. Honestly, I'm glad for the break.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on May 17, 2013, 05:51:02 PM
We're about 1/2 done planting, but now rained out for the rest of the day. Honestly, I'm glad for the break.

I'm ready for a break myself.  We've had good planting weather for three weeks now.  On the plus side I've got in a 20 acre hayfield and my garden is mostly done.  But I'm exhausted!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 10, 2013, 07:34:17 PM
May 26 – June 1, 2013 US Crop Reports
Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms battered the nation’s mid-section, sharply limiting fieldwork and causing localized wind damage. Weekly rainfall totaled 4 inches or more in a broad region centered on the middle Mississippi and lower Missouri Valleys, bringing renewed flooding to some of the same areas that had experienced high water levels in April. In advance of thelatest round of stormy weather, corn planting neared completion in the eastern Corn Belt. However, the remainder of the Midwest continued to struggle to plant remaining acreage, including a substantial portion of the soybean crop. Heavy rain also soaked the northern Plains, similarly halting
fieldwork.  weather (weekly temperatures up to 10°F above normal) aggravated the effects of the southern High Plains’ drought, entering its third year.

EUROPE:
Below-normal temperatures and widespread heavy rain caused lowland flooding, halted fieldwork, and slowed crop development.

FSU-WESTERN:
Showers and thunderstorms provided much-needed soil moisture and heat relief to winter wheat, although heat and pockets of dryness maintained crop stress in some southern wheat areas.

EAST ASIA:
Unwelcomed showers raised quality concerns for mature winter wheat on the North China Plain, while more rain is needed for corn establishment in northeastern China.

SOUTHEAST ASIA:
The monsoon remained weak across Indochina as more rain is needed to maintain current rice prospects.


In North America, the outlook in the United States is less favourable than among the other major wheat producing countries: although good precipitation in February has greatly improved the outlook in previously drought-affected winter wheat areas, it is likely too late for the stressed crops to make a full recovery.

U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are projected at 2,917 million bushels, down 7 percent from 2012/13. The survey-based forecast for winter wheat production is down 10 percent with the lowest harvested-to-planted ratio since 2006/07 and lower yields as persistent drought and April freezes reduce crop prospects in the southern and central Plains.Partly offsetting is higher forecast Soft Red Winter wheat production with higher area. Spring wheat production for 2013/14 is projected to decline 8 percent as reduced durum area and a return to trend yields reduce prospects for durum and other spring wheat.

RICE:
Tighter U.S. 2013/14 all rice supplies, forecast down 6 percent from2012/13 and lower projected use, down 7 percent from 2012/13 result in ending stocks that are down 3 per cent from the previous year. Beginning stocks and production for 2013/14 are both forecast lower from a year ago, while imports are forecast 5 percent larger. U.S. rice production for2013/14 is projected at 189. 5 million cwt, down 5 percent from 2012/13.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
Tighter cattle supplies and potential heifer retention during late 2013 and into 2014 are expected to limit cattle available for placement, thereby reducing fed cattle slaughter in 2014. Lower cow numbers and herd rebuilding will also limit non-fed beef production.

The initial 2013/14 world cotton projections show world ending stocks of nearly 93 million bales, the third consecutive seasonal record, as China’s policy of stockpiling cotton in its national reserve is assumed to continue.

FAO’s latest estimates indicate that 36 countries around the world are in need of external assistance for food as a result of crop failures, conflict or insecurity, natural disasters, and high domestic food prices.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Louisiana Suvivor on June 10, 2013, 07:43:54 PM
Not very good news......for all you game of thrones fans: winter is coming
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on June 10, 2013, 08:38:45 PM
Who reports this?  It sounds a bit too pessimistic to me.  Every year has areas that have trouble with weather and areas that are blessed.  Last year's woes were a bit more widespread than normal but my sense is this year is a bit better.  We are actually doing well in Mchigan and fruit crops will probably be near records.  As far as I can tell most folks were able to get in all their corn and beans as well, though it was a little late because of the much needed rain earlier in the spring.  Also, hay is being cut and prices for hay are back to normal.  I won't be surprised if cattlemen start to rebuild herd size, but again, herd size always varies and keeping back cows that would normally be culled happens (not sure why they pointed to heifer retention, around here we normally keep our heifers and cull our older females).
 
Do my anecdotes mean everything is fine?  Not at all.  I offer them just to make the point that the news is rarely all good or all bad.  I have serious long term concerns about the viability of modern agriculture, but for this year at least, I think things are moving along about normal for the planet.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 10, 2013, 09:55:46 PM
Who reports this?  It sounds a bit too pessimistic to me.  Every year has areas that have trouble with weather and areas that are blessed. 

I get this off of several Ag report agencies which I tend to look at once a week or so.
http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?navid=AGENCY_REPORTS
http://www.fao.org/home/en/
http://www.indexmundi.com/
http://www.agweb.com/
http://brownfieldagnews.com/
http://www.agriculture.com/http://www.northernag.net/AGNews.aspx
http://www.fwi.co.uk/
http://www.agra-net.com/portal2/home.jsp?template=productpage&pubid=ag002
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
http://drought.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/drought.html?map=%2Fwww%2Fdrought%2Fweb_pages%2Fdrought.map&program=%2Fcgi-bin%2Fmapserv&root=%2Fwww%2Fdrought2%2F&map_web_imagepath=%2Ftmp%2F&map_web_imageurl=%2Ftmp%2F&map_web_template=%2Fdrought.html
and probably a half dozen others. If I am looking for something specifically I will query the nation I am interested in and 'agriculture', '2013'. I have watched ag news since 1980 when I was in Ag Classes in High School. We subscribe to Capitol Press, several bee journals and other agricultural publications. It is true that "Every year has areas that have trouble with weather and areas that are blessed", but I look for trends and patterns of the good/bad.

I won't be surprised if cattlemen start to rebuild herd size, but again, herd size always varies and keeping back cows that would normally be culled happens (not sure why they pointed to heifer retention, around here we normally keep our heifers and cull our older females).

Because last year in over 1,000 counties in I don't remember how many states, they dumped cattle due to the drought, having to feed winter hay in July/August and no one could afford the hay or feed prices IF they would even have been able to buy them. There was a glut and low prices on beef at the markets as one county alone dumped 17,000 cattle in one week. That included breeding stock as they could not feed them, even if they could afford to feed them. Three months after dumping beef on the market, the prices did go back up. So this year and for about another 18 months they are going to save every heifer they can as they culled quality cows/heifers last year and it will take 18 months for a heifer to be old enough to breed. So add 9 months for her mother to have her.. and the 18 months until she is old enough to breed and then another 9 months for her to calve.. and then 12-18 months for that calf (presumably a steer) to make it to market weight. And this was the second year in a row to do so. So in 2011, they culled their cull cows, keeping their best back and in 2012 had to do it all over again and sell good cows as culls.
http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/in-the-news/us-drought-2012-farm-and-food-impacts.aspx#livestock
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-09/milk-cow-drought-culling-accelerates-as-prices-jump-commodities.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/13/us-usa-drought-cattle-idUSBRE86C10P20120713 The droughts in 2011/2012 helped to shrink the U.S. herd to about 91 million head, the smallest in about 60 years, while sending beef prices to record highs.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-07-24/plains-ranchers-sell-cattle-as-us-drought-spreads

Do my anecdotes mean everything is fine?  Not at all.  I offer them just to make the point that the news is rarely all good or all bad.  I have serious long term concerns about the viability of modern agriculture, but for this year at least, I think things are moving along about normal for the planet.

There is some good news.. It is just as I am concerned and watching mostly the top 10 nations which grow wheat, oats, corn and rice.. and have been closely for 3.5 years now. And with the UN now urging people to eat insects to combat world hunger.. makes one wonder why they are now just saying this when many countries have traditionally eaten insects and now pushing insects in the western world.
http://www.policymic.com/articles/47347/why-you-should-eat-insects-and-how-you-can-start
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/13/should-we-eat-more-insects-the-u-n-thinks-so/
http://www.fao.org/docrep/018/i3253e/i3253e00.htm

Cedar


Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 12, 2013, 10:53:14 AM
 Ulrike Dauer reports that Nomura has assessed flooding damage agricultural costs to be around €2 billion and €3 billion ($2.6 billion to $4 billion) in Central Europe, some the worst seen in 500 years. “Some 335,000 hectares of German farmland have been flooded, ruining many crops. In Bavaria alone, 30,000 hectares of farmland have been flooded, with substantial damages expected for crops including potatoes, turnips, corn, asparagus, strawberries, lettuce, cucumber and onions.”

http://www.usnews.com/photos/severe-flooding-threatens-crops-in-europe

http://www.euractiv.com/cap/farmers-brace-major-losses-centr-news-528365
As long as food stocks in major producing and consuming countries remain low, the risk of price volatility is amplified,” the report says. “A widespread drought such as the one experienced in 2012, on top of low food stocks, could raise world prices by 15-40%.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-03/german-wheat-seen-avoiding-flooding-damage-as-strawberries-soak.html

Cedar

Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 28, 2013, 02:24:46 PM
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 28, 2013, 02:33:01 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/10/us/after-drought-rains-plaguing-midwest-farms.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Just over 44 percent of the country remains in drought, down more than 9 percentage points from the beginning of March.

By this time, three weeks after planting, Mr. Korff said, his corn should be waist high. But instead, his crop looks like rows of small blades of grass, with the plants popping about only four inches out of the ground.

“It doesn’t matter how wet it is today,” he said. “We’re just two weeks away from a drought.”


Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on June 28, 2013, 03:03:31 PM

“It doesn’t matter how wet it is today,” he said. “We’re just two weeks away from a drought.” [/i]


I feel bad for the large scale farmers who have specialized themselves into this mess, but the reality is these news stories are just reporting a symptom of a problem and not the root cause in my opinion.  I'm almost 50 years old, and while farming skipped a generation with my dad our family has a long history of Midwest farming.  Guess what?  Weather has always been happening!  You know what average weather is?  It's temps in the 90s one year and 70s the next.  Just because the average is in the 80s doesn't mean you see it all that often.  It also means 24 inches of rain one year and 10 the next.  Just because the average sounds great doesn't mean that in either year your rainfall was ideal.  I cull trees from my property for firewood, my son and I enjoy looking at the different size rings in the wood and recognizing the story those rings tell us about droughts and rain over the last 20-50 years.  There have been a lot of lean and wet years going back to at least the 1950s.  And can you imagine the monumental guilt trip We'd be sending ourselves on if a year or two like the 1930s dust bowl happened today??  Crazy weather is not news!
 
The NY Times and similar reporting organizations have a bias, in my opinion, of wanting to report all weather related stories with a nod towards global man-made climate change (some decades they say we're getting cooler, some decades hotter, but whatever is happening  we humans need to feel bad about it).  I fully agree the climate is changing.  I also can't imagine how we humans aren't having an effect, but the argument is still a red herring.
 
The real reason we see all these sad farmers in the news year in and year out is that they no longer have the diversification necessary to ride out different types of weather.  If you are in corn and your land, which you disc'd into powder two months ago gets flooded out before the seed roots take hold, you're screwed.  The reason you are screwed is because all you are in is corn, or beans, or wheat.  When I was a kid we did corn, beans, wheat, cow/calf, some hogs, chickens, and a large garden, all on 160 acres.  To add even more diversification my uncle built a little shop on a corner of the farm and fixed cars.  There was always something that worked and made money.  Furthermore the farm and the equipment was paid for.  There were times in the depression when they borrowed against it short term, but they always had a plan to pay off the debt quick and they never got leveraged to the gills.
 
That diversification is starting to come back in small farms, but it is hard to make those profitable (I'm trying to make ours pay now, but our diversification will always include off farm income).  For the large farms its gone.  Add to that things like the farm bill, which in my opinion is at least partially little more than agricultural welfare, and large agribusiness firms paying huge amounts to our state ag schools to spread the GMO, factory farm, kool aid and you have a recipe for disaster.
 
Meanwhile the NY Times shows us a sad looking farmer with a flooded field and blames it on the weather...
 
Sorry for the rant.  This is a touchy subject with me.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 28, 2013, 03:16:23 PM
I post these for keeping an eye on the end result.. regardless of the why. Is there enough water or lack of it to pull crops off this year and is my cornmeal, bread, animal feed going to get stupidly high again or even is there enough of it? Did you know they are talking about soybean rationing now? How much soy is in human food products these days? In animal feeds?

My farms have always been diversified and always have been.. but now they are talking about a drought development likely in my area. If I do not watch the trends and the forecasts I might not know it is coming up and being on a new farm, I don't know what that will and will not cause for problems with our farm. I presume wildfires with the 30,000+ acres of forest surrounding me. The creeks/springs here have not dried up in the last 100 years, but there might be a first time and I ought to plan for that.

If crops back east are looking to be a poor yield, can I plan anything to offset that for me and my family for our own personal use to store?

If you prefer I do not put Ag reports on TSP, I will desist and keep the trends to myself.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on June 28, 2013, 03:33:16 PM
no, Cedar, please continue.  I do not understand everything you post, but I find it interesting to look at the trends.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Ms. Albatross on June 28, 2013, 04:45:24 PM
no, Cedar, please continue.  I do not understand everything you post, but I find it interesting to look at the trends.

+1
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on June 28, 2013, 04:57:11 PM
Sorry, I certainly wasn't blaming you for anything.  I didn't realize this was an informational thread only and allowed myself to vent my frustration at an issue related to the way the news is being reported.  It was not intended to be a slight to you and im sorry you saw it that way. I obviously have very strong opinions on stuff like this, but I'm happy to keep them to myself and let the articles stand on their own.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chickchoc on June 28, 2013, 05:05:39 PM
+1 to Charles H for pointing out one of the main downfalls of modern farming practices -- lack of diversification. 

+1 to Cedar for all her many informational posts in so many different forums. 

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 28, 2013, 05:08:40 PM
It was not intended to be a slight to you and im sorry you saw it that way.

Well, I didn't really feel slighted, but wanted to make sure I was not annoying anyone  ;)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on June 29, 2013, 09:14:14 AM
 
The real reason we see all these sad farmers in the news year in and year out is

...human nature. Farmers have been bellyaching about the weather since the dawn of time. It's our favorite hobby.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 29, 2013, 09:16:08 AM
...human nature. Farmers have been bellyaching about the weather since the dawn of time. It's our favorite hobby.

LOL..

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: PAGUY on June 29, 2013, 11:54:08 AM
Has anyone been keeping an eye on peanutbutter?  that has been my measuring stick for the past few years.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on June 29, 2013, 12:50:42 PM
I bought it on sale before a price increase in 2011. I haven't had to check the price of peanut butter since (I still have 6 jars). I know my frito lay chip dip jumped from $2.50 to $2.76 a can this year.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: whatmecrazy on July 16, 2013, 02:35:44 PM
I just found out today that I have commissary privileges, does anyone know if their prices are still reasonable?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on July 16, 2013, 03:12:33 PM
I just found out today that I have commissary privileges, does anyone know if their prices are still reasonable?
 
 No where near where they were 15-20 years ago.  I heard they were considered unfair competition to supermarkets around bases so they had to sell at comparable prices.  Not sure what the real reason was, but prices are now just Ok, not great in my opinion.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on July 18, 2013, 08:24:04 AM
I love having all this information available-so keep it up :)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: rikkrack on July 18, 2013, 10:00:36 AM
Yes, please Cedar keep it up. The news stories help me communicate the need to others about being more self reliant and self sufficient. When you start talking about peoples dinner plates they listen more than the zombie apocalypse.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 18, 2013, 12:22:10 PM
Oh I probably will. Since my last post on this thread I have actually not looked at my normal AG reports. I do slack off them from time to time. I started to look again a couple days ago, but I had a friend from WI here for a week. He is gone for a couple days to visit others and then back here again. I need to finish fencing today for 14 head of sheep we are bringing in on Saturday, but I am sooooooo lethargic today. Got stung yesterday, Z's cat kept us awake most of the night so we had like 2-3 hours of sleep? But if I come back in to visit my sofa and not pass out later this afternoon, maybe it is the day to check out the Ag reports. Glad you guys want them, this is a handy place for me to record trends and share with others at the same time.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 18, 2013, 02:24:44 PM
Corn prices for feed and shortage. End users suffering.
http://www.agweb.com/topproducer/power_hour_video_audio.aspx?channelId=27ea24c63b8746e2804df6becd3b2d90&channelListId&mediaId=3fdefa3cef2c4faa83dc1a689d3100cb

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 18, 2013, 02:27:04 PM
Shortened crop growing season this year.
http://www.agweb.com/topproducer/power_hour_video_audio.aspx?channelId=27ea24c63b8746e2804df6becd3b2d90&channelListId&mediaId=3fdefa3cef2c4faa83dc1a689d3100cb

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on July 18, 2013, 02:28:04 PM
Part of me selfishly wishes for $15 corn, especially now that we grow and hunt so much of our own food. A years worth of crop sold at that price would really help with the prepping budget.

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 18, 2013, 02:48:46 PM
Might get your wish Cheryl...

The USDA forecasts Argentine wheat production for 2012/13 at 10 million tons, down 9 percent from last month and down 35 percent from 2011/12. Area is estimated at 3.5 million hectares, down 5 percent from last month and down 32 percent
from 2011/12. They are also 25% behind in soybeans. (The US had to buy a bunch of grain from them last year).

China's wheat crop has suffered more severely than previously thought from frost in the growing period and rain during the harvest, and import demand to compensate for the damage could see the country eclipse Egypt as the world's top buyer. China is usually the top producer of wheat worldwide. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/16/us-china-wheat-idUSBRE96F1F120130716

For 5 weeks, France’s corn crop was bad on continued wet and cold weather in the southwestern region of Aquitaine, which accounts for a fifth of the country’s production of the grain. France is Europe's biggest corn grower. They are leaving alot of area unplanted.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/09/markets-grain-europe-idUSL6N0FF29U20130709

Cedar



Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 30, 2013, 09:28:24 AM
With Too Much Rain in the South, Too Little Produce on the Shelves

Through June, Georgia was 34% above normal rainfall, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center. Both South Carolina and North Carolina were about 25 percent above normal. Alabama’s rainfall was up 22 percent. The weather is a particular shock because more than two-thirds of the region was abnormally dry or suffering a drought last year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/30/us/too-much-rain-in-the-south-too-little-produce-on-the-shelves.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 31, 2013, 08:06:01 PM
The United Nations says mounting violence in Syria has prevented the delivery of food to around 600,000 people. A spokesperson for the World Food Programme said U.N. aid has only reached 2.4 million out of three million Syrians in need.  >:(

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 31, 2013, 08:29:17 PM
"CBS This Morning" contributor Michio Kaku, a physics professor at the City University of New York, discusses how extreme weather impacting fruit and vegetable crops can be a sign of things to come.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50152005n

The Arkansas Farm Bureau on Tuesday estimated the flooding had submerged 1 million acres of state cropland, costing more than $500 million. The bureau suggested the hit to the state economy would be greater, predicting farmers wouldn't be able to start recovering at least until the beginning of June. Arkansas, the largest rice producer in the country, probably lost 300,000 acres of rice in the floods, according to the organization.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/05/10/southern-flooding-poised-wreak-havoc-economy/

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 31, 2013, 09:09:40 PM
Ooops.. I thought it sounded kinda familiar.. that bottom link is from 2011. But I was checking the current flooding issues and it was mixed up with the other current ones. DISREGARD IT.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 15, 2013, 08:07:20 PM
In the news today:
UN needs $98 million in emergency aid for North Korea
The United Nations coordinator for North Korea has called for $98 million in emergency aid to that country to reach the $150 million total needed to maintain food, health and sanitation programs for 2013, reports AFP. The country currently faces chronic food shortages, having suffered from devastating famine in the mid-1990s resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths. "External assistance continues to play a vital role in safeguarding the lives of millions," UN resident coordinator Ghulam Isaczai said in a statement on Thursday. Nearly 2.4 million out of the country’s population of 24 million require regular food assistance, while 28 per cent of children under five suffer from malnutrition. International aid from the US and South Korea has been hit in recent years due to tensions over North Korea’s continuing nuclear program.

In 2013, in the USA, nearly 48 million people currently receive food stamp benefits. The number of Americans receiving subsidized food assistance from the federal government has risen to 101 million, representing roughly a third of the U.S. population. Of the 101 million receiving food benefits, a record 48 million Americans participated in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as food stamps. The USDA describes SNAP as the “largest program in the domestic hunger safety net.” The USDA says the number of Americans on food stamps is a “historically high figure that has risen with the economic downturn.”

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40095.pdf Page 16

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 15, 2013, 08:19:55 PM
Crop reports this week:

Short-term dryness increased stress on summer crops in the western Corn Belt, despite favorable temperatures. By July 7, six percent of the nation’s corn crop was silking, 40 percentage points behind last year and 14 points behind the 5-year average. By July 14, a marked decline in Iowa’s soil moisture led to early signs of crop stress. By July 28, eight percent of the nation’s corn crop was at or beyond the dough stage, 27 percentage points behind last year and 9 points behind the 5-year average. US corn production is forecast at 13.8 billion bushels, up 28 percent from 2012. If realized, this will be a new record U.S. production. Yields are expected to average 154.4 bushels per acre.

Record setting July rainfall totals were observed in parts of the Southeast, primarily from Florida to Virginia, causing some problems with respect to row crops due to flash flooding, standing water, and submerged lowlands.

Portions of the High Plains continued to deal with the effects of long-term drought, despite sporadic July showers. Ongoing soil moisture shortages were reflected in crop conditions, which included nearly one-third (32 percent) of the Texas cotton being rated very poor to poor on July 28.

With producers in portions of the eastern Corn Belt and Southeast struggling to combine wet fields, 57 percent of this year’s winter wheat crop was harvested by July 7. This was 21 percentage points behind last year and 7 points behind the 5-year average.

Soybean production is forecast at 3.26 billion bushels, up 8 percent from last year. If realized, production will be the third largest on record.

63 percent of the peanut crop was reported in good to excellent condition, compared with 67 percent on July 7 and 69 percent at the same time last year.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on August 15, 2013, 08:22:04 PM
Our crops are doing great  so far <fingerscrossed>
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 15, 2013, 08:24:23 PM
Our crops are doing great  so far <fingerscrossed>

What are you growing this year and when do you potentially harvest?

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on August 15, 2013, 08:29:06 PM
Corn and soybeans, October, same old same old :)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on August 16, 2013, 06:17:59 AM
Do you all follow future's prices on your corn and soybeans Cheryl?  How do they compare to last year?  I'm north of you in Michigan and do a much smaller grass fed cow/calf and chicken operation on the side.  The bottom has fallen out of hay prices (just when we bought some land with the money I made from my Afghan deployment and seeded it for hay   :P ). However, the price I pay for chick feed and layer mash doesn't seem to have changed much.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on August 16, 2013, 06:22:15 AM
We monitor the daily spot prices and several months ahead. Prices are trending down.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 29, 2013, 10:18:12 AM
A growing season that began unusually wet and cold in the Midwest is finishing hot and dry, renewing worries of drought and the impact it may have on crops. Temperatures soared to records in recent days in parts of the region, reaching nearly 100 degrees in some areas. The heat wave struck many farm states â?? from the Dakotas to Wisconsin, down to Missouri â?? that have seen too little rain this growing season. http://www.theguardian.com/world/feedarticle/10951642

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdohomeweb.png)

Drought recently reestablished itself across Iowa, northern Missouri, and the lower Mississippi Valley.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/aug/29/midwest-hot-dry-spell-brings-back-drought-worries/
http://www.theguardian.com/world/feedarticle/10951642

Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 05, 2013, 05:49:29 PM
Almost one-third of the country's population in all thirteen regions of Namibia face moderate to high level of food insecurity after rains failed in this southern African country for a second year. With crops failing, cattle dying, and even boreholes drying up, the Red Cross says the country is headed for catastrophe if immediate action is not taken.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/09/201395104545698559.html
http://www.namibiansun.com/disasters/oshikoto-governor-report-food-shortage.56324

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 05, 2013, 05:53:17 PM
http://weather.yahoo.com/midwest-hot-dry-spell-brings-back-drought-worries-142411385.html?.tsrc=att
http://www.wisfarmer.com/features/midwest-hot-dry-spell-brings-back-drought-worries-----jcpg-334912-222535551.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130905-708229.html

US drought monitor:
The Midwest: Well above-normal temperatures (6 to 10 degF), continued lack of rain, and record to near-record low August rainfall in some areas has led to rapidly declining topsoil moisture conditions in parts of the Midwest. After such an ideal start to the growing season (March-June; polar opposite compared to last year), the past two months have been much drier than usual, with temperatures slowly increasing.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on September 06, 2013, 12:30:16 PM
Sorry. I have nothing to add. I just wanted to dispel the number 666 from the "Number of Replies" tabulation for this very groovy thread.



Yeah, seriously. ;)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 06, 2013, 12:32:40 PM
LOL..

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on October 29, 2013, 07:11:15 PM
Starved Syria civilians flee besieged Damascus suburb
After 9 months of siege, supplies in Moadamiya had been running desperately short, and residents had pleaded to be saved from starvation. The situation has become so desperate that earlier this month Muslim clerics issued a religious ruling allowing people to eat cats, dogs and donkeys just to survive. Those animals are usually considered unfit for human consumption in Islam. "We didn't see a piece of bread for nine months," one woman told the BBC. "We were eating leaves and grass."

http://cir.ca/news/syria-food-crisis
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24730536
http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2013/10/07/230089576/a-chemical-attack-and-now-food-shortages-in-syrian-town

To feed a family with eight large slices of bread, it costs about 400 Syrian pounds, which can be $2 to $3 depending on the exchange rate.

"I told you, no food allowed. I didn't make the rules," he shouted, somewhat exasperated. "There are people bigger than me and you who make these rules, and they're watching us right now. No food is allowed inside. Now go away."

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on October 29, 2013, 07:36:05 PM
Hopefully corn prices will come down for us (sorry Cheryl)
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) yesterday reported that farmers had gathered 59 percent of crops in the main growing areas as of October 27, compared to 39 percent a week earlier. Sixty-two percent of the crop was in good or excellent condition, up from the 60 percent a week earlier that received the top ratings. According to the USDA’s September forecast, the US may produce a record 13.8 billion bushels this season. The market is expecting the department’s updated projection on November 8.

Soybean for January delivery was unchanged at $12.6600 a bushel at 13:22 GMT. The USDA yesterday reported that harvesting of the oilseed in the US was 77 percent completed as of October 27, matching the average pace in the previous five years.

Wheat for December delivery meanwhile was trading at $6.7975 a bushel.

The sugar price has today fallen to a two-week low in New York as investors sold futures and traders judged that a fire at the port of Santos in Brazil will have only a limited impact on supplies. (you did know about the refinery fire a couple weeks ago right?)

Coffee = Down to the lowest prices in 4 years
Rubber = Up

Olive oil prices shoot up in West Bank. Colonists target trees which stand for Palestinian steadfastness. Olive oil prices in the West Bank have shot up during this year’s season as output diminished following the destruction of olive trees by Israeli colonists. A kilogramme of olive oil is selling this harvest season for a much higher 25-30 (Dh26-32) Shekels, compared to 12-17 Shekels last year. The Palestinian government, farmers and owners of olive presses, which are used in the final stage of extraction, blame the aggression of colonists for the shortage and the related increase in prices. They said the colonists have uprooted thousands of olive trees in recent years.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on October 30, 2013, 06:30:57 AM
Harvest is so good this year prices are going to tank. At least there is a lot of grain to sell, so it'll probably end up about even. This year is better than last years drought for sure.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on October 30, 2013, 09:53:43 AM
And olive oil makes the news today --
According to the watchdog, some 1,650 trees have been vandalized in the past two months in the West Bank with most of the damage occurring in October. 
http://rt.com/news/palestinian-olive-trees-vandalized-942/
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/10/19/israeli-settlerschopdown100treesinwestbankvillage.html

Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on October 30, 2013, 01:41:42 PM
Within the last hour, Sen Pat Roberts, R-Kan., on farm bill: 'We're going to lose credibility if we don't get this bill done. We've got to get this bill done!'

 ??? Dude, you guys on the Hill apparently have NO credibility left with most of the world, let alone John Q Public.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 17, 2013, 12:01:10 PM
So today a friend in Texas called me and wanted to know why he could no longer get Pecans in Texas.. I was mystified why this would happen and honored he would think I would know this off the top of my head since I have never even knowingly seen a pecan tree in my life.

Well I did a bit of info and there are several factors why there is a pecan shortage. So stock up if you (pe)can.

IN 2009 someone from the USS introduced Pecans to China and now they are going crazy for them. We are now selling at least 25% of our pecans to China. Prices have gone from $2.XX a pound for whole pecans in 2009 to $14.XX a pound in 2013 for pecan pieces in places. A 9" pecan pie in some places is now going for $34US.

So with the drought the last three years and then the hard winter hit last year and now just a few weeks ago, there is a mad rush for pecans, as they are going to be even more scarce.

Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 18, 2013, 10:19:41 AM
Had time to look at the commodity reports this morning..

Cocoa is on short supply and has gone up 21.08% in the last 12 months:
The humble candy bar could soon change beyond recognition as palm oil, chemical flavorings and fillers replace increasingly scarce cocoa beans and expensive ingredients. And that means real chocolates will become a luxury item -- for the wealthy only. "People are prepared to pay 70 pounds ($113) per kilogram (2.2 pounds) for chocolate" said Angus Kennedy, a former chocolate taster for major manufacturers.

The cacao tree, source of cocoa, the raw material of chocolate, is being whacked by fungal diseases. There are diseases in South America that are threatening to wipe out the industry there, as well as the rest of the world if they spread," said Gockowski, of the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture. Global cocoa reserves have been falling since 1991, and the price of cocoa futures it at its highest in 10 years. At its root, the chocolate shortage is caused by an imbalance between the demand for chocolate and the land available for planting. Traditionally, farmers have fought back against disease by planting trees on new land. Today, little land is available.

Shrimp prices up 64% in the last 12 months
Shrimp prices soar as disease affects global farm-raised supply.  Shrimp prices are at an all-time high, and still climbing, because of a disease called early mortality syndrome, or EMS, that's plaguing the three largest producers of farm-raised shrimp — Thailand, China and Vietnam. The disease does not affect humans. The Gulf Coast produces about 175 million pounds of shrimp per year, Williams said. U.S. demand is about 1.4 billion pounds. 

Donald Lightner, a University of Arizona professor and one of the world's leading experts on shrimp pathology, led a team of researchers that recently found EMS is caused by a bacterial agent. Transmitted orally, it enters the shrimp's gastrointestinal tract and produces a toxin that destroys the digestive organ and other tissue. EMS affects shrimp in the first 10-40 days after stocking and has a 40 percent to 90 percent mortality rate, according to the Global Aquaculture Alliance, a St. Louis-based trade association. The disease, which affects white shrimp and black tiger shrimp, was first found in eastern China in 2009.


Peanuts up 263.17 % in the last 12 months
CNNMoney reports that Kraft is raising prices for its Planters brand peanut butter by 40 percent while ConAgra has already increased the price for its Peter Pan by 20 percent. CNNMoney also states that J.M. Smucker, the maker of Jif, will hike their prices up about 30 percent. AP Reported that U.S. farmers were expected to produce roughly 1.8 million tons of peanuts this year. This is down nearly 13 percent from last year, and we may be lucky to see even that happen. Georgia, the largest peanut-producing state in the country, saw record-breaking heat and a lack of rainfall that prevented some peanut seeds from even germinating in the field. Plants that did grow were literally cooked in the summer heat. The result being poor-quality nuts or sometimes nothing at all. This year was Georgia's worst peanut crop in more than 20 years.

Propane is also up 40% over the last 12 months.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on December 18, 2013, 09:43:28 PM
What about the wheat prices we talked about last week somewhere else on this forum ? I saw 50lb bags of organic red wheat berries jump from $19 to $29 over just last month.

And yes, peanut butter is becoming unaffordable. we have one jar I bought at a grocery liquidation store in the house, but it is no longer sitting by the case in the pantry
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 06, 2014, 10:04:35 AM
Drought Map December 2013
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/current/current_total_trd.jpg)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 06, 2014, 10:08:15 AM
Wheat nears 2-week peak as cold threatens U.S. crops.  Freezing temperatures may hurt U.S. winter wheat.
U.S. wheat futures approached a two-week high on Monday as the coldest weather in two decades threatened to damage dormant crops in the United States. Near-record low temperatures in the U.S. Midwest and Plains raised the risk of damage to the dormant U.S. wheat crop and threatened to stall the movement of grain to markets, MDA Weather Services forecaster Don Keeney said.

An arctic blast that swept across the heartland pushed morning lows to -4 to -10 degrees Fahrenheit (-20 to -23 Celsius) in the top wheat state of Kansas, while Nebraska and Colorado had morning lows in the -12 to -20 F range, he said. Cold weather can boost demand for livestock feed because animals eat more to generate energy to keep warm.

On a sidenote: "Once a monster crop in South America can be confirmed, look for China to begin cancelling U.S. soybean purchases and switch to buying from South America."

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on January 06, 2014, 10:47:05 AM
Yeah, if this drought starts to affect California agriculture, we are in a world of hurt, It is going to be interesting how it plays out this summer -- last time in the 70's, it was cities vs farms for available water, and it will affect prices for the californai exports of fruits and veggies
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 06, 2014, 10:59:42 AM
U.S. wheat threatened by Arctic cold, dryness
http://www.agprofessional.com/news/US-wheat-threatened-by-Arctic-cold-dryness-238621251.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: JC2 on January 06, 2014, 01:20:07 PM
http://www.hoosieragtoday.com/pedv-major-factor-regarding-2014-live-hog-prices/

Hog prices to increase.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: JC2 on January 09, 2014, 01:40:24 PM
Hog prices going up because of shortage and now this.....

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/fatal-pig-virus-now-affects-22-u-states-184553862.html
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on January 09, 2014, 04:31:41 PM
That quote on the swine virus is interesting.  I just sent three berks in for processing.  I buy feeders from a small breeder in SW Michigan and hopefully he will be fine.  I hope to get 8 in the late spring.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 10, 2014, 04:19:08 AM
Stock up for the SuperBowl? Kraft confirms Velveeta shortage
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/not-stunt-velveeta-confirms-shortage-2D11887843

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 12, 2014, 08:13:23 PM
November 26, 2013 - Global food prices declined by 6 percent over the last quarter, but are still not far from their historical peaks, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Food Price Watch report. Wheat markets remain tight; and weather-related concerns in Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina, China, India, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation may further drive up wheat prices over the next few months.

Good news -- January 7, 2014 Cold weather overnight did not harm oranges and other fruit across Florida's citrus-growing regions.

Bad news -- January 7, 2014 As much as 15 percent of winter-wheat plants in the Great Plains face damage, Kyle Tapley, a senior agricultural meteorologist



Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 12, 2014, 08:23:13 PM
January 8th, 2014
Hunt for Food Sends Venezuelans to Colombian Border Towns
Venezuelan taxi driver Jose Sotomayor drives four hours through army checkpoints every week from the city of Maracaibo to buy rice in Colombia for his family at 10 times the government-set price back home.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-08/hunt-for-food-sends-venezuelans-to-colombian-border-towns.html

January 10th, 2014
An estimated 2.2 million Zimbabweans are facing food insecurity in the country that once was known as the breadbasket of southern Africa.  Zimbabwe is now counting on imports of 150,000 tons of corn from South Africa to overcome a shortage.
http://www.voanews.com/content/zimbabwe-imports-corn-to-avert-food-shortage/1827294.html

How Food Crisis affects people (long 300 page read)
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2012/04/05/000333037_20120405011345/Rendered/PDF/678650PUB0EPI0067902B09780821389409.pdf

January 9th, 2014
China faces food shortages over polluted agricultural land -- The Chinese government has revealed that 3.33m hectares of its land – an area nearly as large as Belgium – is too polluted to grow crops, meaning that the country might have to import more food to feed its growing population.
http://blueandgreentomorrow.com/2014/01/09/china-faces-food-shortages-over-polluted-agricultural-land/

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 28, 2014, 12:42:45 PM
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20140121/20140121_usdm_home.png)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on January 28, 2014, 05:16:29 PM
I love these charts. Thanks for posting them.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 04, 2014, 10:12:07 AM
You might want to check out this thread on the Californian water shortage http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=48087.0

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 04, 2014, 04:56:05 PM
USDA Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin February 4th, 2014
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdf

Highlights:
Alabama -- The US Drought Monitor released on January 28, 2014 indicated that 43.51 percent of the state of Alabama had become abnormally dry, compared to 2.65 percent at the start of the calendar year and 56.68 percent a year ago.

California -- irrigated silage and wheat plantings suffered from drought conditions and failed to germinate. Some oat fields were replanted and alfalfa fields remained dormant. Range and non-irrigated pasture remained in fair to poor condition. Orchards have been irrigated for the last month.

Delware -- The unusually cold nights and prolonged period of below freezing temperatures were hard on the livestock.

Florida -- Varying degrees of losses on vegetables, strawberries reported throughout the State due to freezing temperatures. North Florida strawberries, collards, and turnips had frost damage, fungal disease due to freezing
conditions.

Hawaii --  January 2014 started the year off with 57 percent of the state designated in some stage of drought. Throughout the month, precipitation fell mostly in heavy passing showers. At the OSA symposium I was at, the Hawaii growers were saying how they have a drought there, but then they get 5" of rain in tow hours time and then back to drought conditions again.

Indiana -- The state has experienced snowfall of over 18 inches for the month. Persistent snow cover shielded wheat and alfalfa but limited field activities. Poor road conditions have made essential transportation problematic for many as well. In extreme cases, multiple days of milk production were dumped when hauling was not possible. Livestock owners have had to run through hay stocks faster than anticipatedto keep livestock fed in the cold weather, and many areas are experiencing a propane shortage.

Oregon -- You might want to stock up on cabbage seed (it is good for 2-4 yrs), in Clackamas County Crop losses were being reported for cabbage for seed due to cold temperatures. I know at the OSA conference, they were talking about being hard hit and seed crop losses for cabbage, kale and the like with some seed farmers.

Wyoming -- There is some concern about the lack of snow pack affecting summer irrigation water supplies. The mild winter has helped manage hay supplies.

AUSTRALIA:
Unfavorably dry weather returned to southern Queensland and northern New South  Wales, renewing stress on summer crops.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: floridaprepper on February 06, 2014, 01:12:25 PM
I went to the local LDS Cannery to do the lazy man's long term storage plus up and was informed that I could no longer can the items myself...the FDA payed them a visit and told them that because they have wheat and milk powder they had to restructure the building...$1.5 million. These folks have been operating for over 35 years with no comlaints, problems or illnesses, but that didn't matter.  Luckily they are still able to sell their prepackaged #10 cans so I was able to get most of my favorite things.  Don't you feel safer now?  The term Assclown did spring to mind.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 06, 2014, 02:00:00 PM
Actually I had another word in mind and I cannot type it here.. I am too much of a lady.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on February 06, 2014, 02:14:43 PM
It also means that they dont carry all the same things. They do not prepackage dried carrots, dried onions, white beans and black beans. Only have pinto beans canned. So, I got a cans of these for our fire house because the local LDS cannery  canned up all the inventory in Nov and had a few left
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on February 06, 2014, 03:10:24 PM
You can still buy those items in bulk though can't you?
A 5 gallon bucket lined with mylar is a good substitute for canning.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on February 06, 2014, 03:39:06 PM
Nope. they do not carry or sell any bulk bags of food, only the precanned
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on February 07, 2014, 06:43:32 AM
The price of grain is increasing. With the drop in the stock market investors are beginning to pull their money out of stocks and invest in commodities.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on February 07, 2014, 06:47:15 AM
The price of grain is increasing. With the drop in the stock market investors are beginning to pull their money out of stocks and invest in commodities.
 
I hope they come down by June.  Our cows are pastured or fed hay off our own property so feed costs are minimal.  But I am planning another batch of 10 feeder hogs in June and 500-1000 broilers from may through October and those all require me to by feed.
 
On the plus side, I direct market and my customers are amazingly understanding of the connection between my cost to produce and their cost to buy.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 11, 2014, 09:48:07 AM
From the UK... As the row over who was to blame for failing to tackle the consequences of the extreme weather intensified, concerns grew about the impact that the flooding will have on agriculture. Experts warned that the government needed to fully understand that climate change poses a significant threat to food security.

Same article:
"The biggest threat to farmers is extreme weather," said Kendall, who pointed out that events around the world were conspiring to place intense pressure on farming that will serve only to drive up prices. "California has run out of water, the American midwest has record minus degree temperatures and there are warnings about wheat crops, Ukraine is worried about frost, Australia has had a record year of temperatures, Austria had its hottest recorded temperature of 40.5 degrees last August. We are seeing more of these intense, extreme weather events and climate change does really now challenge mankind's ability to feed itself."

http://www.theguardian.com/global/2014/feb/08/storms-lash-coast-uk-long-term-costs

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 11, 2014, 10:25:04 AM
Australia
Sugar http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-18/australia-sugar-cane-crop-seen-curbed-in-2014-if-drought-spreads.html
Cotton http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-11/australia-cuts-cotton-output-estimate-as-drought-curbs-crops.html
Soybeans http://www.thecropsite.com/news/15563/soybean-production-drop-could-lead-to-shortage

Brazil
Soybeans Feb 3 blurb Brazil Soybean Outlook Worsens from Tropical Drought

Argentina - (who with Brazil, saved our bums on grain here)
Argentina Rainfall Helpful, Not a Cure for Drought
Extreme heat and dryness resumed last week in Argentina,  stressing corn and soybeans.  Temperatures peaked Saturday with 100 F (38 C) or higher in the grain belt.

USA
Persistent drought has been damaging for the soft wheat crop in Western United States.  Washington wheat has received only half of normal precipitation over the past 30 days and 62% of normal since early October.   This is very significant, since Washington is the 3rd biggest US winter wheat state behind Kansas and Oklahoma.

With already low production estimates out for the Florida orange crop, the threat of a damaging freeze may now come this weekend. On the market, prices are jumping and will soon affect consumers.

Russia
Severe planting delays in Russia from fall wetness taints the outlook for the 2014 winter wheat harvest. SovEcon the Moscow based consultancy points to a smaller Russia winter wheat area and delayed plantings as a threat to the 2014 wheat harvest.    Andrey  Sisov Jr , the firm’s managing director, cited late planting as a threat to winter wheat in an interview with Agrimoney, saying  “the risk of higher-than-usual winterkill losses is significant”.  Mr. Sisov may have been referring to susceptible areas of the Volga and Central districts placing up to 20% of Russia wheat at risk for winter kill.

China
China is expected to import a record 69 million metric tons of soybeans in 2013-14 to make up for a small domestic soybean harvest. China soybean buying continues strong.  The USDA Friday announced the sale of another 4 million bushels of soybeans to China under its daily reporting system.  Import needs are great due to small domestic soybean production. The USDA predicts China will need to import 69 million metric tons of soybeans, all together, in 2013-14 to keep up with robust demand from rising meat consumption.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 15, 2014, 09:23:39 AM
As of Feb. 4, almost 50% of the nation’s winter wheat, 40% of domestic cattle and 30% of corn acreage were in drought, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

If drought conditions continue, 500,000 acres — much of it open ground that would typically be planted with crops such as tomatoes, onions and other vegetables — will sit idle.

The California cattle herd is being liquidated, said Ned Schmidt, editor of Agri-Food Value View, an information source for investing in agriculture. “No water, no grass, no hay, and feed would have to come too far and at too high a cost.”

And for winter wheat KWH4 0.00% , the market’s starting to worry about the effects of the drought on spring wheat planting, which occurs between April and May, Teucrium’s Gilbertie said. There’s even some moderate drought in midwestern states like Minnesota and Iowa, which are big soybean SH4 -0.46%  and corn producers CH4 +0.85% .

Summary

During the past 7-days, the first significant storm of the wet season (since October 1) inundated parts of central California and the northern Sierra Nevada with 6-12 inches of precipitation, with locally up to 15 inches. Although there were short-term local improvements from this week’s ample precipitation, the long stretch of subnormal precipitation dating back to 2011-12 wet season has accumulated large deficits, leaving rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and snow packs well below normal. Even though this storm was welcome, the central Sierra still needs 3-4 more copious storms to bring this wet season close to average. Farther north, lesser but welcome precipitation (2-4 inches) also fell on the southern Cascades, while unseasonably cold air dropped measurable snow from Portland, OR, to Seattle, WA. Unfortunately, little to no precipitation fell on southern California and the Southwest.

Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 05, 2014, 09:07:12 AM
oh no!  not this!  http://www.thedenverchannel.com/money/consumer/chipotle-says-it-could-drop-guacamole-from-its-menu-over-climate-change03042014

guacamole is on the chopping block.   :'(
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on March 05, 2014, 10:17:17 AM
 I haven't been to a store in ages, but my friend was telling me how prices have realy gone up, she is also low income and so notices. She specifically called me because a 5lb bag of organic potatoes was over $4 yesterday, at our cheap, local owned store. She had me add a bag of 50lbs from the bulk order, to get 1.19 a bag equivalent. She says she has realy noticed the jump in onions, $1.80ish a pound, brocolli/cauliflower, bananas (organic), and of course, AVACADOES, rice, and flour., and gasoline up $.25 this week (my daughter filled up my car lately and I hadnt noticed yet....)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 10, 2014, 11:51:06 AM
UN warns world must produce 60% more food by 2050 to avoid mass unrest
http://rt.com/news/world-food-security-2050-846/

In the past three years for example, Australia, Canada, China, Russia and the United States have all suffered big flood and drought induced harvest losses.

In February, the FAO, World Bank and World Resources Institute estimated that the world is losing 25 to 33 percent of the food it produces

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 11, 2014, 06:21:45 AM
Chiquita merger reignites fears of a disappearing banana crop
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/3/10/chiquita-merger-createsworldsbiggestbananacompany.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 29, 2014, 04:12:37 PM
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20140325/20140325_usdm_home.png)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Ms. Albatross on March 29, 2014, 04:26:35 PM
According to the map you are in an severe drought area.  Even with all the mass quantities of rain/snow you received this winter?  Is it because your area had many years of low rainfall before this?  Or some other reason?  Or am I reading the map wrong?

(From someone in an extreme drought area)

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 29, 2014, 04:29:35 PM
Corn rose to the highest in more than six months and was set for a bull market as U.S. weekly export sales showed rising demand amid tensions between Russia and Ukraine and deteriorating crop prospects in Brazil.
http://www.agweb.com/article/corn_set_for_bull_market_as_us_exports_rise_amid_ukraine_worry_BLMG/

United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on March 1, 2014 was 62.9 million head. This was down 3% from March 1, 2013, and down 5% from December 1, 2013.

USDA National Grain Review
https://www.statpub.com/index.php/gab/article/623666

"We have problems in the winter wheat belt," O'Brien said, adding there are reports about damage caused by the frigid temperatures in January, when there was little protective snow cover on the ground. Rainfall has been sparse so far this spring. About two-thirds of the U.S. wheat belt — an area that includes Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, eastern Colorado and west-central Nebraska — is in a drought, said Don Keeney, agricultural meteorologist with MDA Weather Services. Although the outlook calls for some rain in the southern plains the first week in April, those are not expected to be heavy and will help crop conditions "only a little bit," he said.Wheat is breaking dormancy across the plains, but cool temperatures have mostly slowed growth. That is expected to change next week when it turns warmer and plant growth accelerates — but the crop then needs soil moisture or timely rains. Given the weather outlook, Keeney anticipates crop conditions in the U.S. wheat belt will deteriorate substantially during the first two weeks of April. "As in the United States, the real concern for the new wheat crop in Ukraine and southern Russia is drought," Chumrau wrote. "Once more, we are reminded that in the world wheat market, precipitation is always more important than politics."
http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2014/03/26/political-instability-weather-spur-wheat-prices

California drought - almonds
http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/California-drought-How-water-crisis-is-worse-for-5341382.php

Pics http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2014/03/californias-historic-drought/100706/



Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 29, 2014, 04:39:16 PM
According to the map you are in an severe drought area.  Even with all the mass quantities of rain/snow you received this winter?  Is it because your area had many years of low rainfall before this?  Or some other reason?  Or am I reading the map wrong?

I am actually in a moderate drought spot. Statewide, the snowpack is only 32% of normal. Record low snowpack levels were measured at five sites in Oregon as of New Years.

October, November and December 2013 were very dry months in Oregon. Oregon’s northern mountains have the best March 1 snowpack in the state (70-90% of normal). A few locations in northeastern Oregon even have above normal snowpack conditions. Snowpack levels across the central Oregon region are around 50-70% of normal as of March 1, while southern Oregon basins remain well behind normal (30-50% of normal). While the 2014 snowpack levels are likely going to remain well below their normal peak levels, there is the possibility of a cool and wet spring.

As of March 1, the basin snowpack was 49% of normal. This is significantly higher than last month when the snowpack was 39% of normal.

They are saying historically we could make up the deficient and it has been raining nonstop here for about 48 hours now.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 29, 2014, 05:14:45 PM
List of Top Five Wheat Producing Nations Around the Globe

Rank      Country    Output 2013 (Million Metric Tonnes)
1.      China    125.6
2.      India    94.9
3.      United States    61.8 -- prospects for the United States winter wheat crop are mixed
4.      France    40.3 -- had some winter crop damage
5.      Russia    37.7 -- possible looming war

Food shortages around the world
http://www.fao.org/docrep/019/i3618e/i3618e.pdf#page=2

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 30, 2014, 04:44:52 PM
Avocados
On March 26, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported prices of $36.25-38.25 for two-layer cartons of hass 48s from Mexico, up from $31.25-32.25 last year at the same time.

Limes
Already-record prices could go even higher. Other than meeting a few commitments, Val Verde was not selling limes on March 27. “Prices would probably be $100 for 200s and larger, $90-95 for 230s and $80-85 for 250s.” Lime prices top $80 per box

Kiwi fruit
Kiwifruit prices could be headed into record territory as Chile, hit hard by September freezes, takes over the deal. As of March 24, Chilean kiwifruit shipments were just 15-20% of what they were at the same time the past two seasons. Chilean kiwifruit crop to be down about 70% this season.

Peppers
Heavy rains and cold snaps reduced winter production and delayed plantings, producing smaller volumes and are keeping bell pepper prices higher than normal.

Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 01, 2014, 09:18:08 AM
Video - The Future of Food
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140206-the-future-of-food

When three continents witnessed food riots in 2007 and 2008, we saw the international food system is not as stable as it looks. There’s unprecedented competition for food due to population growth and changing diets. Experts predict that by 2050, if things don't change, we will see mass starvation across the world.

Cedar ZombieGal


Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on April 01, 2014, 09:51:32 AM
So I was listening to Beck on the radio yesterday and he reports how the EPA is out to regulate Cow farts. With dairy and meat prices up 12 percent how much more will prices rise when the government slaps on a new tax to regulate cows.
Of course I suppose they could stick a catalytic converter up their butts (cows not the EPA).
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: ncjeeper on April 01, 2014, 09:52:17 AM
Cedar ZombieGal
????
You got sick and turned?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on April 01, 2014, 12:20:27 PM
????
You got sick and turned?

she has been sick for awhile now.  claimed it was a muscle problem, but maybe it was a brain thing....  :zombie:
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 01, 2014, 02:21:46 PM
she has been sick for awhile now.  claimed it was a muscle problem, but maybe it was a brain thing....  :zombie:

It always has been a BRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAINNNNNNNNNNNS thing..

Cedar ZombieGal
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Ms. Albatross on April 01, 2014, 02:39:02 PM
Beck  reports how the EPA is out to regulate Cow farts.

Of course I suppose they could stick a catalytic converter up their butts (cows not the EPA).

 :rofl:
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 01, 2014, 02:46:48 PM
Of course I suppose they could stick a catalytic converter up their butts (cows not the EPA).

Why the cows? The politicians/bureaucrats are more full of gas and hot air... and poo.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on April 01, 2014, 03:00:46 PM
I'm sure the greenies would love nothing more than to make meat unaffordable since being a secondary consumer wastes so much food. Every meat eater ends up needing more than twice the acreage as a vegetarian diet, so ultimately, I should feel guilty for liking a nice juicy steak for dinner.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on April 01, 2014, 03:05:36 PM
Why the cows? The politicians/bureaucrats are more full of gas and hot air... and poo.

Cedar

So True
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 04, 2014, 07:49:13 PM
Wheat Fields See Worst Damage in 5 Years
With drought already sapping soil moisture across the Great Plains, the biggest growing region, a polar vortex in early 2014 draped fields in a deep freeze, killing more plants than normal. Since crops began going dormant in November, conditions deteriorated by the most in five years.

http://www.agweb.com/article/wheat_fields_see_worst_damage_in_5_years_BLMG/

Cedar


Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 08, 2014, 08:29:29 PM
US wheat deteriotates, amid corn sowings fears too
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/us-wheat-deteriotates-amid-corn-sowings-fears-too--6938.html

The condition of US winter wheat deteriorated further, reports from major growing states revealed, as investors await a delayed first national rating of 2014, with early data showing a slow start to corn sowings too.

In Kansas, the top US wheat-growing state, of which 99% is in drought, the proportion of the crop rated "good" or "excellent" fell by three points to 32% in the week to Sunday.

In Oklahoma, the proportion of the crop rated "good" or "excellent" dropped by two points to 15% in the week to Sunday, affected by drought which has spread to 95% of the state, the US Department of Agriculture said.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morgan96 on April 09, 2014, 03:54:04 AM
In Oklahoma, the proportion of the crop rated "good" or "excellent" dropped by two points to 15% in the week to Sunday, affected by drought which has spread to 95% of the state, the US Department of Agriculture said.

Got a sprinkle of rain the day before yesterday, but nothing to dance about.  We're well below normal.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: JC2 on April 15, 2014, 12:53:23 PM
I could have told them how it was going up when i bought a 1 pound bundle of asparagus for 4.99 a pound at Kroger just a week ago.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/04/15/attention-shoppers-fruit-and-vegetable-prices-rising/?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsFifth (http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/04/15/attention-shoppers-fruit-and-vegetable-prices-rising/?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsFifth)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Bonnieblue2A on April 15, 2014, 04:42:35 PM
I could have told them how it was going up when i bought a 1 pound bundle of asparagus for 4.99 a pound at Kroger just a week ago.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/04/15/attention-shoppers-fruit-and-vegetable-prices-rising/?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsFifth (http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/04/15/attention-shoppers-fruit-and-vegetable-prices-rising/?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsFifth)


This is telling:   
Quote
“We could be looking at future,” he said, “where California is no longer bread basket for the country.” 

Lots of opportunity for those willing to plant gardens in place of their lawns again. And, lots of opportunity for permaculturists developing markets for vegetables and fruits in their own communities be it through fostering a relationship with the local grocery store, a CSA, farmer's market or other avenues.

For those who will not or cannot do anything other than buy produce at the local grocery store, it is going to continue to cost more to eat healthy foods.  That is, until the backyard growers, permaculturists, homesteaders, and small fruit/veggie farmers, can create abundance.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 15, 2014, 05:00:21 PM
That is, until the backyard growers, permaculturists, homesteaders, and small fruit/veggie farmers, can create abundance.

That is why I am putting in a 2-3 acre garden on speculation this year.. and the greenhouses.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Bonnieblue2A on April 27, 2014, 01:25:10 PM
Pig virus (PEDv) continues to spread.  More than 10% of the US pig population has been lost in less than a year. Producers whose facilities have been hit are devastated.

http://news.yahoo.com/killer-virus-spreads-unchecked-u-hog-belt-pushing-180045876--finance.html;_ylt=AwrTWfwiSF1TLkcA_ArQtDMD

I think the small scale homesteader with livestock needs to seriously consider biosecurity measures on his/her own farmstead.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 27, 2014, 01:58:53 PM
I think the small scale homesteader with livestock needs to seriously consider biosecurity measures on his/her own farmstead.

This is why I have no longer been showing animals. Why I did not go into that lady's goose yards yesterday after she invited me in. Why I step in bleach water if I am back from someone else's farm.. why I don't bring in live birds and hatch here only. Why I get rid of my whole flock/s to a friend if I move from one farm to another and get eggs from my friend later to hatch out.

Even with my knowledge and doing what I knew to do for worming and prevention, we lost 19 goats to Barberpole worm. Which Barberpole worm is now immune to every chemical wormer there is, from people overworming/worming incorrectly. And the organic methods we tried also did not work.

Develop disease resistant animals. Cull heavily anything which even looks like it might be sick. QUARENTINE! I know these rules worked well for me for 40 years until this last year, when we brought in new animals from various sources starting all over again.

Like right now, I would not go to anyone place who has swine and I would avoid the swine barn at a livestock show.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: rikkrack on April 28, 2014, 09:50:18 AM
So doing some research because CNS told me to "dig deeper". I found this.

It is from the USDA on what food costs at different demographics were. I was blown away that in 2000 for a family of 4 (closest I could get to my family) was $561 in May 2000 to  $827 in 2013. That is a 32% increase. 

http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/usdafoodcost-home.htm (http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/usdafoodcost-home.htm)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 28, 2014, 09:55:35 AM
So doing some research because CNS told me to "dig deeper". I found this.
It is from the USDA on what food costs at different demographics were. I was blown away that in 2000 for a family of 4 (closest I could get to my family) was $561 in May 2000 to  $827 in 2013. That is a 32% increase. 

Crazy hey?

And sometimes don't you wish you had not learned to dig and half wish you could stick your head back under the rug?

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on April 28, 2014, 10:09:11 AM
Here is an article about Fabian Socialist Kate Humble who believes people do not appreciate food enough. Since people are wasteful, prices should skyrocket to compensate.

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2014/apr/17/kate-humble-value-food-not-expensive-enough
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: rikkrack on April 28, 2014, 10:17:12 AM
Crazy hey?

And sometimes don't you wish you had not learned to dig and half wish you could stick your head back under the rug?

Cedar

"Crazy hey", are you channeling your time in Canada??

Absolutely not. I have learned so much more now. I am banned from watching news on TV at home because I yell about the inaccuracies and bias opinions. When they put out "news" it is stuff I have learned about a days to weeks before.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Bonnieblue2A on April 28, 2014, 04:14:17 PM
...............
Like right now, I would not go to anyone place who has swine and I would avoid the swine barn at a livestock show.

Cedar

You bring up a good point about livestock show.  Summer is coming and state fairs could be a really bad place for cross-contamination to occur.  I have to wonder if bio-security will be steppped up at state fairs across the country.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on April 28, 2014, 04:32:29 PM
Luckily, the animals at fair, at least here in CA, are all animals owned by children, 4H and independents. Not that they couldnt have disease, but they are generally back yard bred and not from large herd or farms, so actually pretty isolated until they get to the fair. I think we are getting these disease problems from the large factory farms with the horrible CAFO operations. These fair animals are getting handled to be trained for the fair, and sickness would be noticed as the kids work with them a few times a day. They are very well fed, exercised and cared for.

No animals are let into the fair without being examined by a vetrinarian. Even the chickens. ( we had a rooster turned away for lice year before last, and I thought I had checked him out thoroughly...) Then, the pens are cleaned twice a day, and all walk ways are swept a few times a day, so while ti is possible, it is unlikley to bring anything home by walking thru the livestock barns. If you pet an animal, can happen, but you cant pet the pigs, just the goats realy are petted alot at ours. ANd there are handwashing stations at both ends of all livestock barns, and I remind parents to have their kids wash hands if they have petted ours.

I sure hope they dont require more  --- any more hoops to jump thru and we might throw in the towel.

Often, tho, just the stress of being at fair all week means that -- at least for the goats -- they get sniffles and the change to our local fair water gives a few of the youngest goats/pigs diarea each fair, but they get over that.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on April 28, 2014, 04:32:49 PM
So doing some research because CNS told me to "dig deeper". I found this.

It is from the USDA on what food costs at different demographics were. I was blown away that in 2000 for a family of 4 (closest I could get to my family) was $561 in May 2000 to  $827 in 2013. That is a 32% increase.
 
Certainly not what you would want to see, but over 13 years that comes out to about 2.5% annual inflation on food, right?  If so I can live with that.  My concern is that going forward it will be much higher. 
 
If past performance was an indicator of future performance, I wouldn't be concerned...
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 28, 2014, 05:36:45 PM
Here is an article about Fabian Socialist Kate Humble who believes people do not appreciate food enough. Since people are wasteful, prices should skyrocket to compensate.

I believe it is true that people do not appreciate food enough. But to make food prices skyrocket?

Kate rents a farm from the government, who she has someone else tenant for her...
http://www.cornwall.gov.uk/environment-and-planning/land-and-property/farming-in-cornwall/applying-for-a-county-farm/
Kate gets government grants to put in her aquaponic system and other government money to put in other projects
Kate has a Victorian house, she says,"Three years on, my home is lovely, but it took workmen 18 months to put right."
Kate has her own TV show and makes $$$
Kate has an assistant to assist her...
Kate has an award winning TV director husband Ludo Graham, who makes $$$, at least $98,930 a year.
Kate also doesn't do her TV series shows for a mere pittance either...

So she can afford stupidly expensive food that many cannot...

Does she also do good in the world with her wildlife foundation and TV series.. probably, but she may also be out of touch how the 'other 3/4's' live from meal to meal.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: DanielBoone on April 28, 2014, 08:57:56 PM
I believe it is true that people do not appreciate food enough. But to make food prices skyrocket?

Kate rents a farm from the government, who she has someone else tenant for her...
http://www.cornwall.gov.uk/environment-and-planning/land-and-property/farming-in-cornwall/applying-for-a-county-farm/
Kate gets government grants to put in her aquaponic system and other government money to put in other projects
Kate has a Victorian house, she says,"Three years on, my home is lovely, but it took workmen 18 months to put right."
Kate has her own TV show and makes $$$
Kate has an assistant to assist her...
Kate has an award winning TV director husband Ludo Graham, who makes $$$, at least $98,930 a year.
Kate also doesn't do her TV series shows for a mere pittance either...

So she can afford stupidly expensive food that many cannot...

Does she also do good in the world with her wildlife foundation and TV series.. probably, but she may also be out of touch how the 'other 3/4's' live from meal to meal.

Cedar

I wouldn't call Kate a Middle Class B like she says people may accuse to herself of being in the Guardian article..I would call her a straight up Elitist Upper Class B.

Kate Humble what an ironic name...
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on April 28, 2014, 10:01:19 PM
Many of us would agree that people don't appreciate food enough, but it's not my problem.
If people don't want to appreciate their food, so be it.
That drives progressives crazy because they NEED to control what they have no control over.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morgan96 on April 29, 2014, 03:41:43 AM

http://www.yorkdispatch.com/breaking/ci_25652272/fresh-fruits-meat-lead-surge-rising-food-prices (http://www.yorkdispatch.com/breaking/ci_25652272/fresh-fruits-meat-lead-surge-rising-food-prices)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on April 29, 2014, 05:20:15 PM
I just saw Chipotle is raising their meat dish prices due to the state of the US beef herd
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Rangeboss on April 29, 2014, 07:52:05 PM
They can sugar coat the stats all they want.
My wife tracks the cost of food, we have 6 kids.
Up35-50% in the last 3 years depending on the item.
Some are up 20% in the last 3 months.
We doubled the size of our garden last year to use and put away ever more.

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morgan96 on May 01, 2014, 04:15:55 AM

Gmail inbox is getting more and more frequent Google news updates, with search keywords "rising food prices".


Could California's Drought Last 200 Years?
Clues from the past suggest the ocean's temperature may be a driver.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/02/140213-california-drought-record-agriculture-pdo-climate/ (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/02/140213-california-drought-record-agriculture-pdo-climate/)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on May 01, 2014, 05:50:39 AM
They can sugar coat the stats all they want.
My wife tracks the cost of food, we have 6 kids.
Up35-50% in the last 3 years depending on the item.
Some are up 20% in the last 3 months.
We doubled the size of our garden last year to use and put away ever more.

^this. Even our non prepper friends are watching prices and stocking up on sales.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 12, 2014, 06:40:14 PM
Food News from New Zealand --

Beef prices are up to their highest levels, rising 3.1 per cent in April, though chicken and lamb prices fell by a similar percentage in the month. Overall, food prices rose 0.6 per cent in April and are now up 1.5 per cent from a year ago, according to Statistics NZ figures out today.  Grocery food prices rose 1 per cent, influenced by rises across the subgroup including milk, cheese, and eggs (up 1.4 per cent), bread and cereals (up 1 per cent), and sweets nuts, and snacks, also up 1 per cent. Meat, poultry, and fish prices rose 0.9 per cent. Beef was up 3.1 per cent to their highest level.  Fruit and vegetable prices (up 0.4 per cent) also rose in April. Seasonally higher prices for tomatoes and strawberries were partly countered by seasonally lower prices for kiwifruit.  For the year to April, food prices were up 1.5 per cent. The restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food subgroup (up 2.2 per cent) had the largest impact for the year. Ready-to-eat food was up 2.4 per cent and restaurant meals up 1.5 per cent. Prices were up for milk, cheese, and eggs (up 6.7 per cent), with both fresh milk and cheese up almost 10 per cent in the year.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 12, 2014, 06:52:54 PM
Behind the cornucopia of higher food prices
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101589514



Food Prices on the Rise (article April 21, 2014)
10. Grapefruit (disease)
4-yr. change: +22%
1-yr. change: +6%
Current price: $1.02 per lb.

9. Chicken
4-yr. change: +22%
1-yr. change: +5%
Current price: $1.54 per lb.

8. Turkey
4-yr. change: +24%
1-yr. change: +9%
Current price: $1.73 per lb.

7. Wine
4-yr. change: +25%
1-yr. change: +8%
Current price: $10.75 per liter

6. Margarine
4-yr. change: +30%
1-yr. change: -1%
Current price: $2.11 per lb.

5. Peanut Butter
4-yr. change: +30%
1-yr. change: -2%
Current price: $2.71 per lb.

4. Coffee
4-yr. change: +31%
1-yr. change: -17%
Current price: $5.00 per lb.

3. Oranges
4-yr. change: +35%
1-yr. change: +23%
Current price: $1.21 per lb.

2. Ground Beef
4-yr. change: +35%
1-yr. change: +8%
Current price: $4.13 per lb.

1. Bacon (due in large part to the spread of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv) in hogs)
4-yr. change: +53%
1-yr. change: +13%
Current price: $5.55 per lb
4-yr. change: +53%
1-yr. change: +13%
Current price: $5.55 per lb.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 12, 2014, 06:54:43 PM
(http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_page_width/public/May-6-2014-US-Drought-Monitor-Map.png?itok=x2hfL03P)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 12, 2014, 07:03:25 PM
May 9th, 2014
Kansas is expected to produce its smallest winter wheat crop since 1996, an indication of a deepening drought across the nation's wheat belt, the government said Friday in its first official forecast of the growing season. Down 18%.
http://www.agweb.com/article/kansas_wheat_forecast_to_be_smallest_since_1996_NAA_Associated_Press/




KANSAS CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITION TOPEKA, KS, May 12 , 2014
Heat and high winds caused further deterioration of the Kansas wheat crop, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Blowing and drifting dirt continues to be a concern in southwest Kansas, as some fields are too dry and barren to hold the topsoil against the strong winds.
Stock water supplies were rated 20 percent very short, 32 short, 48 adequate, and 0 surplus.
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kansas/Publications/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/current.pdf

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on May 12, 2014, 07:12:02 PM
(http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_page_width/public/May-6-2014-US-Drought-Monitor-Map.png?itok=x2hfL03P)

Cedar

This, this is what is scary, not even just for food, but for extreme fire danger. There is no deep wetness to the ground, so the teeny rain we got last thurs night, while enough to ruin the hay, did nothing for the ground moisture content. It is already turning to cement were there is no irrigation. This is a few months too soon.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 12, 2014, 07:16:31 PM
We are in moderate drought too. Even though we have had alot of rain in the last two months, we had a really dry winter. Our spring rains are starting to make up that deficit however. Like on Saturday-Tuesday (at least) it is supposed to be non-stop raining again.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on May 12, 2014, 07:33:45 PM
I am in the exceptional drought area of California, and it shows in the soil and plants, for sure.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 13, 2014, 03:07:03 AM
Europe drought map in percentage of normal precipitation

(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/3cpnp1.gif)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 13, 2014, 03:20:25 AM
News from April 2014
Brazil: Ever since 2005, Brazil has been suffering from a series of persistent drought episodes. By this year, the nine year long drought series reached an ominous peak. Like California, this drought series is now likely the worst seen in decades and possibly as far back as 500 years. The result was widespread fires and blackouts throughout Brazil together with extreme impacts to farm production. Particularly hard hit were coffee and sugar production, sending prices for both markets rocketing to record or near-record levels

Argentina: Argentine corn crop slammed by drought; harvest estimates wither
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/14/uk-argentina-corn-analysis-idUKBREA0D15520140114

The Ukraine and Russia: An ever-more expansionist Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine also resulted in higher food prices as speculators purchased grain stores over projections that Russian forces could disrupt Urkaine’s food production and exports. First phase invasion into the Crimea did not block key grain ports. But tens of thousands of troops massed along the Ukraine border and likely continued incursions by Russian special forces units into Eastern Ukraine resulted in an ongoing destabilization of one of the world’s key grain producers. In this context, it is worth noting that global harvest figures showed Russian wheat production falling from 61 million metric tons per year in 2009 to 38 million metric ton per year in 2012. Throughout this four-year period, Russia has been forced to curtail or cut off grain exports on numerous occasions as increasing periods of drought, fire and extreme weather resulted in loss of crops. Meanwhile, wildfire season began early in Siberian Russia perhaps presaging a fire season that, when combined with the effects of an emerging El Nino, could be the worst seen since 2010 when Russia first cut off grain exports to the rest of the world.

Indonesia and Southeast Asia: From Thailand to Malaysia to Indonesia, drought resulted in significant reductions in palm oil production, a main crop for the region. Throughout March and into April large fires were reported over a wide drought-stricken zone even as smoke choked both cities and countryside. Some of the fires were suspected to have been illegally set by large palm oil conglomerates seeking to clear new land for an ever-expanding set of palm oil plantations. But the plantations may now be in danger of a drought fed by both their destructive practices of land-clearing and by their overall contribution to an extraordinary and excessive global greenhouse gas overburden.

Australia: El Nino Alert by Australia Signals Droughts to Floods
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-06/el-nino-alert-issued-by-australia-as-event-seen-as-soon-as-july.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on May 13, 2014, 04:26:55 AM
As always-thank you so much for keeping this thread updated.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 18, 2014, 06:16:29 PM
I went to Costco today and checked out the meat department since I was there. I almost fainted over beef prices. There were like 5 steaks in a package. Not overly large, nothing too exciting like a Porterhouse or Filet Minon.. and it was $52. I would have figured 2 years ago that would have been just short of $20.
http://www.kansas.com/2014/05/16/3460918/low-supply-of-beef-driving-up.html
http://www.agweb.com/article/how_did_cattle_prices_get_so_high_NAA_University_News_Release/
http://articles.latimes.com/2014/apr/08/business/la-fi-beef-prices-20140406

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: The Dark Unicorn on May 18, 2014, 08:22:57 PM
Steak? What is this wonderful cut of beef that you speak of?

^I haven't had steak in over a year, I just can't justify the expense..... which is sad since I love a nice juicy soft.......... grrrrrr

Heck I treated myself to a ham steak today, shared with my Dog and put half up for an omlette tomorrow.....

I think I'll go grab a bit more in staples with the $10 I had saved for hitting yard sales for canning jars... This could be ugly by this fall
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: rikkrack on May 20, 2014, 07:52:42 AM
Until we get land to raise our own we are buying 1/2 side of beef (tomorrow) mainly because it is cheaper than regular trips. Beef prices have gone through the roof. $2.50-$3/lb ground beef. I remember when it was $1/lb. Chicken, veggies all of it is going up. it is going to get bad. I didn't think the "dooms day" crowd would be right about food shortages on a large scale. Maybe economy, maybe civil unrest, but food I thought was one of the out there tin foil hat ideas.

We are starting our meat rabbits, getting goats, and it seems like just in time too.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 20, 2014, 09:05:23 AM
This could be ugly by this fall

I am betting before Fall.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on May 20, 2014, 09:17:48 AM

     Fall is about right for the perfect storm with Famine and all out warfare with Iran,Russia and China! It's all biblical believe it or not!

                                                               kiteflyer

          A Perfect Storm is Gathering for Wheat Price!

           http://www.trefis.com/stock/weat/articles/238870/a-perfect-storm-is-gathering-for-wheat-prices/2014-05-13

        In a previous article, I discussed why beef prices are elevated and will remain so through at least next year. And as it turns out, we’re entering a new age of higher prices for many agricultural commodities.

Around the globe, a perfect storm of events has begun to push the price of wheat higher (north of $7 per bushel). And as wheat prices rise, it’ll affect the price of flour and bread. In fact, flour has already jumped about 10% in cost over the past year.

But what’s behind the rapid increase in the price of wheat?

There are three main factors at work . . .
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on May 20, 2014, 09:28:04 AM
What has been interesting to me has been the extreme fluctuation.  Last summer Colorado was burning until early July, then we got into a fairly normal pattern of moisture and then September hit and we had epic flooding (depending on where you were along the front range, between a 100 year to over 500 year flooding).  Since that time it's returned to a relatively normal pattern (a little snowier than normal in the high country, a little drier than normal on the plains).  At this point I'll count ourselves as lucky, but these extremes are really hard to manage in so many aspects.  You run the risk of loss of life if you top up reservoirs and you get epic rains.

In the end, I suspect we're going to have to learn to live with a new normal of wider fluctuations in temperatures, precipitation and extreme weather.  Whether our planet can continue to support 7.2 billion people with these wider fluctuations, well, that's yet to be seen.  Combine all of this climate stuff with high energy prices and you have a recipe for conflict and suffering.   
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 20, 2014, 09:39:19 AM
Too wet
(http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif)

Too dry
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdohomeweb.png)

As of May 13, 2014, drought covered approximately 38 percent of the contiguous 48 states, according to the U. S. Drought Monitor. The area affected by extreme or exceptional drought (D3 or D4) has expanded from about 10 percent of the contiguous states in mid-April to 14 percent in mid-May.

Drought is forecast to expand into the remainder of far southern Texas, much of southeastern Texas, and the southwestern quarter of Louisiana by the end of summer.

"New Dust Bowl" or "Terrible Teens" drought taking a toll. In April, devastatingly dry, dusty, windy conditions on the southern Great Plains fueled concerns of a “New Dust Bowl.”  The “Terrible Teens” drought, which for many parts of the southern Great Plains began in the fall of 2010 and has lasted for more than 3½ years, continued to take a severe toll on rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat.  During the four weeks ending April 1, coverage of extreme drought (D3) climbed from 14 to 25% in Kansas, while extreme to exceptional drought (D3/D4) coverage rose from 24 to 39% in Oklahoma; 27 to 38% in Texas; and 25 to 33% in New Mexico.

A mid-April cold snap added “freeze insult” to drought-injured wheat on the southern Great Plains.  Another cold wave at month’s end may have caused additional harm to the crop in beleaguered southern wheat production areas.  By April 27, one-third (33%) of the U.S. winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition, identical to the end-of-April rating for last year’s drought-affected crop.  Nearly two-thirds (65%) of the wheat was rated very poor to poor in Oklahoma and Texas, while roughly one-third of the crop was rated very poor to poor in Kansas (37%) and Colorado (33%).  The portion of the winter wheat production area in drought has been hovering just above the 50-percent mark in recent weeks and stood at 53% on April 29.  This value is very similar to what was noted a year ago, on April 30, 2013, when 54% of the wheat crop was in drought. 

By April 29, about one-quarter (26%) of the U.S. corn production area was in drought, down 5 percentage points from four weeks ago.  Similarly, 19% of the soybean production area was in drought on April 29, down 5 points from April 1.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 20, 2014, 09:45:09 AM
These are the kinds of reports I read weekly for years...
Report May 9th, 2014
WHEAT:
U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are projected down 10 percent from 2013/14 with beginning stocks, production, and imports all expected lower. Supplies for the new marketing year are projected to be the lowest since 2007/08. Production is projected at 1,963 million bushels, down 8 percent from last year.

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

May 20, 2014
Kansas Wheat Condition Declines as Drought Endures
The condition of the Kansas winter wheat crop continues to decline despite spotty rains that relieved drought pressure in central eastern parts of the state. The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported Monday that 59 percent of the winter wheat is in poor to very poor condition. About 29 percent is listed as fair, with just 11 percent rated as good and 1 percent excellent. The agency says that with pasture grasses shortened by drought, some producers are turning cattle out to graze the failed wheat. The weekly report also said cool temperatures slowed crop development, and freezing temperatures in parts of Kansas kept many farmers from putting seed in the ground. About 86 percent of the state's corn has now been planted, along with 7 percent of sorghum and 32 percent of soybeans.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 20, 2014, 10:00:15 AM
May 2014 California crop reports
Almonds-Yield expected to average 2,270 pounds per acre, down 4.6 percent from the 2013 yield of 2,380 pounds per acre.

Peaches-The California drought situation remained a concern for peach growers. However, many growers will be able to offset reduced irrigation district water deliveries by utilizing wells to pump groundwater.

Potatoes- The 2014 Spring Potato crop forecast is 10.0 million cwt., down 8 percent from last year. Yield is lower than previous years.

Wheat- The 2014 Winter wheat production forecast is 480 thousand tons, down 41 percent from last year due to fewer acres planted by growers

Livestock - The movement of cattle out of California remained active.  Supplemental feeding of livestock continued.  Range and pasture conditions are rated poor to very poor.


Article http://wallstcheatsheet.com/politics/californias-drought-is-hurting-all-of-america.html/?a=viewall
As for jobs that will be lost as the farm industry struggles to survive the year, NPR reports that as many as 20,000 could be lost. In areas like Mendota, California, where farming is a major source of jobs and income and where those living there already face joblessness and poverty, the job losses will be especially hard

Article - California's Drought Ripples Through Businesses, Then To Schools
http://www.npr.org/2014/04/20/304173037/californias-drought-ripples-through-businesses-and-even-schools

Cedar









Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: The Dark Unicorn on May 20, 2014, 12:20:34 PM
To put it in perspective a bit. My fiance is a truck driver, out 3 weeks home 3 days. The price of food (fast or sit down) has jumped in the last year where his pay has not.

I kid you not, last nite he sat down at a Denny's had 2 scrambled eggs, hash browns and 2 sausage links with a soda..... $10 before tip..... he has to eat 2x a day due to BP meds. Even hitting McDs for the $ menu is getting pricy... and he really HATES fast food but is trying to keep costs down. It still costs $150 a WEEK for him to eat reasonably out there! And he's fairly cheap, we know guys spending double since they always sit in the restaurant and refuse to eat the fast food offered.

So next time someone tries to give you a line about how much you make as a truck driver laugh at them, the cost of "living" in that truck is VERY expensive!

I also so an article on Yahoo about the coffee rust fungus...........
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on May 20, 2014, 12:51:42 PM
No worries for me, I can't stand coffee, but if the diet coke fungus hits I'm in trouble.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: endurance on May 20, 2014, 01:03:02 PM
No worries for me, I can't stand coffee, but if the diet coke fungus hits I'm in trouble.
;D

thanks for that. I'm in the same boat, but just regular coke for me, please.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 12, 2014, 10:22:57 AM
Ground chuck, 1 pound
(http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_APU0200703111_2004_2014_all_period_M04_data.gif)

Bacon, 1 pound
(http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_APU0000704111_2004_2014_all_period_M04_data.gif)

Chicken, per pound
(http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_APU0000706111_2004_2014_all_period_M04_data.gif)

Bananas, per pound
(http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_APU0000711211_2004_2014_all_period_M04_data.gif)

Oranges, per pound
(http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_APU0000711312_2003_2013_all_period_M08_data.gif)

White sugar, per pound
(http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_APU0000715211_2004_2014_all_period_M04_data.gif)

Peanut butter, per pound
(http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_APU0000716141_2004_2014_all_period_M04_data.gif)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on June 12, 2014, 10:35:22 AM
woh, Cedar, those charts are something to see.  I just gave them a quick look.  I will probably be spending much more time examining them.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 12, 2014, 10:40:01 AM
June 10th drought map
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20140610/20140610_conus_trd.png)

And in California
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20140610/20140610_ca_none.png)

June 4, 2014 -- Thousands of low-income California families who are impacted by the drought will soon be receiving rental assistance, thanks to a new $10 million grant program being offered through California's Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD). La Cooperativa, a nonprofit association, has been selected by HCD to administer the program, and assistance will begin flowing directly to California families in the coming weeks.
http://www.ca.gov/drought/news/story-50.html

California Weekly Drought Update
The California Department of Social Services has provided over 55,000 boxes of food to date for counties impacted by the drought. This food aid, enabled by emergency drought legislation passed in March, is targeted toward residents economically impacted by the drought. The Department is working with local food banks to ensure that each food bank has a plan to outreach to those most impacted by the drought.

The California Department of Food and Agriculture has identified strategies and actions that can help farmers control dust during the drought. Several hundred thousand acres of fallowed lands increase the threat of major dust storms in parts of California, so the state is working provide landowners ways to reduce airborne dust on their properties.

From the Weather Channel
California Drought Threatens Food Supply of All Americans; Collapsing Aquifer Sinking the Land
http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/americas-morning-headquarters/california-drought-cracked-20140521

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: The Dark Unicorn on July 06, 2014, 04:55:04 PM
Quick note: I noticed that coffee price on the brand I've been buying jumped 20 cents this week..........
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 06, 2014, 05:09:38 PM
(http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_page_width/public/July-1-2014-US-Drought-Monitor-Map.png?itok=4ldrfcMI)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 06, 2014, 05:30:29 PM
(http://drought.unl.edu/Portals/0/user_image/news/2014/2014-07-01%20wheat%20in%20drought.jpg)

http://sucho.unl.edu/web_archive/AgInDrought/2014-07-01-AgInDrought.pdf

California topped the U.S. with 75% of its rangeland and pastures rated in very poor to poor condition on June 29, according to USDA.  Following California were New Mexico (67% very poor to poor), Arizona (58%), Colorado (35%), and Nevada (35%).  According to the latest “agriculture in drought” statistics, based on the July 1 Drought Monitor, 25% of the domestic hay acreage and 36% of the U.S. cattle inventory were located in a drought-affected area.

The nation’s winter wheat crop suffered from the effects of drought, a harsh winter, and several spring freezes.  Based on the “agriculture in drought” statistics, 46% of the winter wheat production area was within an area experiencing drought on July 1.  Nearly half (44%) of the U.S. winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition by USDA on June 29, paced by Oklahoma (76% very poor to poor), Texas (63%), and Kansas (61%), as May and June rainfall arrived too late to revive the crop.  During the last two decades, only the drought-affected crops of 2001-02 and 2005-06 were rated lower overall at end of the growing season.  The winter wheat harvest was well underway in southern production areas, with 89% of Oklahoma’s crop cut by June 29.

Cedar



Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 09, 2014, 10:21:48 PM
Roosters' fertility problem hits U.S. chicken supply, lifts prices

High chicken prices due to the production constraints have helped push up the stock prices of Tyson and Sanderson this year, by about 17 percent and 38 percent, respectively. Both Tyson and Sanderson reported net income more than doubled in their fiscal second quarters.

The price increase is especially painful for consumers as prices for steaks and pork chops are up 10 percent this year due to drought and disease affecting herds.

"There's nothing cheap to buy," said Ron Prestage, president-elect of the National Pork Producers Council.

Shawna McLean, who lives with her husband and dog in Playa Del Rey, California, said she now chooses meats based on what is on sale. "I'm looking at the same chicken and the price has gone up about $3 in the last month," said the 48-year old,


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/09/us-chicken-supply-genetics-exclusive-idUSKBN0FE0C820140709

Ross hybrid chickens http://en.aviagen.com/ross-708/
Aviagen Broiler Breeders supplies day-old grandparent and parent stock chicks to customers in 130 countries worldwide under the Arbor Acres®, Indian River®, and Ross® brand names.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on July 10, 2014, 06:00:06 AM
Interesting that they claim production problems for the price increases in one breath and in the next report that their net income more than doubled...  Could "business" be more responsible for price increases than rooster sperm counts?  Makes on wonder.   When I see whole store brand "plain Jane/John" chickens selling for $1.10/lb this year compared to $1.07 last year (an increase of less than 3%) the price increases at Tyson and Sanderson seem less and less biological.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 15, 2014, 07:09:08 PM
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/last-drop-americas-breadbasket-faces-dire-water-crisis-n146836
The Last Drop: America's Breadbasket Faces Dire Water Crisis

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on July 19, 2014, 11:09:31 AM
Just went to the Azure web site to put a few things into my cart -- BIG jump in wheat prices since last I looked !!

Organic Chicken wheat, which is floor sweepings for animal feed, is now $21.65 for a 50 lb bag. It went from 15.20 exactly one year ago ( I went and looked up my July 2013 receipt) for a long time, to 17, then 19 a few months ago.....  Pre made organic chicken pellets at $23 for 50 lbs is starting to look like what I might need to change to -- too bad I just bought my years supply of organic flax seeds I use in my home made mix !

So, I looked at the other wheat products there, $43.20 for 50 lbs of organic red wheat berries ! This was $19.20 one year ago, it has more than doubled !! $24.40 for 25 lbs of whole wheat flour. This is now approaching $1/lb -- I bought some organic whole wheat pastry flour from them in AUg of 2013 for .57/lb !

So, of course it was good I bought a years supply a year ago, as the price did rise a whole bunch -- but I will run out and will need to replace at some point. So, are we betting on fall 2015 dropping price again ? Or is it up, up, up from here on out ..... because buying ahead is only kicking the can down the road. So, now the decision is, eat the reserves thinking next years crop will be better, and then not have the buffer in the house I would like to keep, or buy at the new doubled price because it may get worse.....

Our inflation numbers are so, so off -- I am on a fixed income and pinch a penney as hard as possible already. Food, household energy, transportation (gasoline) are ALL I spend money on !! Inflation has been RISING so, so much more than they will admit

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: chad on July 19, 2014, 01:30:59 PM
Quote
Our inflation numbers are so, so off -- I am on a fixed income and pinch a penney as hard as possible already. Food, household energy, transportation (gasoline) are ALL I spend money on !! Inflation has been RISING so, so much more than they will admit

On 2/2011 I Bought 50lb of red and white wheat from my local LDS cannery at $16 per 50lb.

All that printing of money is coming home to roost...
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 19, 2014, 01:40:08 PM
Wheat will go worse. Harvests are already hooped in Ukraine, Crimea, Russia due to war. Brazil, Argentina who saved the USA in our drought is now in severe drought and china is hoarding and rust disease.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on July 19, 2014, 02:01:28 PM
Ok, I actually bought more last year than I remembered (as we had 2 more adults living in the house then). So, we are fine for a bit, my bet last summer/fall was that wheat was going up, and so 3 bags are on the shelf, not just one.

But, as I mentioned, while good to have extras for use in a distribution disruption or personal financial disruption, replacement food will still need to be bought at the higher prices, so we realy cant hedge inflation, long term, by stocking up.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Ms. Albatross on July 19, 2014, 02:04:55 PM
Wheat will go worse. Harvests are already hooped in Ukraine, Crimea, Russia due to war. Brazil, Argentina who saved the USA in our drought is now in severe drought and china is hoarding and rust disease.

Cedar

Cedar, nosy question.  Do you buy wheat berries (either white or red) and grind them to make flour?  I haven't done it yet.  But it seems like it would be worth the money to buy the bulk wheat and get a quality grinder at this point - considering how high the prices have risen and how high they are  probably going to go.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on July 19, 2014, 02:20:20 PM
I do a mix. I buy hard red wheat berries and grind it to make bread.

But, I cannot get a fine enough grind - for what I want- for fine baking, so I also buy flour, whole wheat pastry and white for desert baking.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 19, 2014, 03:58:15 PM
Cedar, nosy question.  Do you buy wheat berries (either white or red) and grind them to make flour?  I haven't done it yet.  But it seems like it would be worth the money to buy the bulk wheat and get a quality grinder at this point - considering how high the prices have risen and how high they are  probably going to go.

No. I put up mostly white wheat berries (as that is what my side of Oregon grows, Soft White)and cook them like rice and put into soups. If pinch comes to shove, I can get them ground for breads.. But I have other options.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 19, 2014, 04:11:48 PM
Jet Crash Over Ukraine Might Spur Wheat Price Gains
Wheat prices soar as air crash fuels Ukraine fears
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/wheat-prices-soar-as-air-crash-fuels-ukraine-fears--7278.html

Wheat headed for the biggest weekly climb in four months as investors weighed the outlook for exports from the Black Sea region after the loss of a passenger jet over Ukraine spurred concern supply may be disrupted. The contract for September delivery rose as much as 0.7 percent to $5.5475 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and was at $5.545 by 1:59 p.m. in Singapore. Prices jumped 2.4 percent yesterday, the biggest increase since April 15. Futures are set to advance 5.4 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain since the period ended March 7.
http://www.agweb.com/article/jet_crash_over_ukraine_might_spur_wheat_price_gains_BLMG/

Ukraine and Russia are major wheat exporters – not that any sanctions are likely to apply to grain itself, a major source of cheap supplies for, for example, North Africa, but regional instability could affect transportation, or least raise fears of disruptions that persuade buyers to turn elsewhere.

Canada ended up with at least 2 million acres unplanted because of wet conditions.

(http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-BV807_Ukrain_MG_20140303142712.jpg)
Ukraine is the world’s No. 6 exporter of wheat, and instability there could cause supply disruptions, sending prices higher.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on July 20, 2014, 03:13:04 AM
Jet Crash Over Ukraine Might Spur Wheat Price Gains
Wheat prices soar as air crash fuels Ukraine fears
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/wheat-prices-soar-as-air-crash-fuels-ukraine-fears--7278.html

Wheat headed for the biggest weekly climb in four months as investors weighed the outlook for exports from the Black Sea region after the loss of a passenger jet over Ukraine spurred concern supply may be disrupted. The contract for September delivery rose as much as 0.7 percent to $5.5475 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and was at $5.545 by 1:59 p.m. in Singapore. Prices jumped 2.4 percent yesterday, the biggest increase since April 15. Futures are set to advance 5.4 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain since the period ended March 7.
http://www.agweb.com/article/jet_crash_over_ukraine_might_spur_wheat_price_gains_BLMG/

Ukraine and Russia are major wheat exporters – not that any sanctions are likely to apply to grain itself, a major source of cheap supplies for, for example, North Africa, but regional instability could affect transportation, or least raise fears of disruptions that persuade buyers to turn elsewhere.

Canada ended up with at least 2 million acres unplanted because of wet conditions.

(http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-BV807_Ukrain_MG_20140303142712.jpg)
Ukraine is the world’s No. 6 exporter of wheat, and instability there could cause supply disruptions, sending prices higher.

Cedar


I just did a very rough estimate based entirely on this chart.

Looks to me like Ukraine is responsible for 14% of all the wheat of just these Top Eight producers.

But the real question is: what percentage of the world's wheat are they responsible for?

If we take a guess and cut that 14% in half, that brings us down to 7% of the world's wheat coming from Ukraine (just a guess on my part). And my understanding of shortages and scarcity (based entirely on my petroleum research, especially my studies of the two Energy Crises that struck America  back in the 1970's) tells me that any time a supply system suffers a sudden and unforeseeable shortage of 5% or more, it's capable of seizing up the whole system.

This 5% rule only applies to shortages in commodities for which there is absolutely no alternative. Wheat (unlike oil) does have some alternatives. So I do not see the system "seizing up" due to a 7% drop in supply. However, if we continue to see droughts and wildfires inn Australia, Russia, and India, then that 7% loss could get compounded into double-digit numbers, and then the prices will truly get out of hand. And then we might see more food riots in the coming 18 months like what we witnessed back in 2008 in Latin America and parts of the Third World. 

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 20, 2014, 05:43:25 AM
Looks to me like Ukraine is responsible for 14% of all the wheat of just these Top Eight producers.
But the real question is: what percentage of the world's wheat are they responsible for?

This chart was for exporting, not how much they grow.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Oil Lady on July 20, 2014, 03:42:35 PM
This chart was for exporting, not how much they grow.

Cedar



Oh.

Well in that case ....

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-lyZADVP93lc/T_NptdKAxrI/AAAAAAAACEE/yTNJnWSUJ5I/s1600/Emily+Latella.jpg)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 24, 2014, 10:28:37 PM
A senior U.N. official warns millions of people in Iraq are likely to face severe food shortages because of fighting in the north. The official says the seizure of large swaths of territory by Islamic militants has disrupted the normal harvest season.
http://www.voanews.com/content/us-iraq-likely-to-face-severe-food-shortages-because-of-conflict/1964519.html

Israel’s southern poor suffering food shortages
http://www.sdjewishworld.com/2014/07/24/israels-southern-poor-suffering-food-shortages/

There's a Kale Shortage (for Real)
http://modernfarmer.com/2014/07/ration-green-juice-great-kale-shortage-upon-us/
http://www.bonappetit.com/entertaining-style/trends-news/article/kale-shortage

Corn Syrup
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-hits-america-in-its-sweet-tooth/

Jamaica confirms food shortages on several items due to severe drought
http://www.caribbean360.com/news/jamaica-confirms-food-shortages-on-several-items-due-to-severe-drought

MPs warn of UK climate change food shortages
http://www.pollutionsolutions-online.com/news/air-clean-up/16/breaking_news/mps_warn_of_uk_climate_change_food_shortages/30783/
At the moment, the UK is able to produce food 68 per cent of the time, whereas 20 years ago, the country could produce food 80 per cent of the time. This is likely to drop further as global temperatures increase.


The Gaza Strip will face a general food shortage within two-four weeks if the main commercial Karni Crossing is not reopened, the UN has warned.
http://electronicintifada.net/content/un-warns-food-shortages-unless-key-crossing-point-reopened/7026

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: The Dark Unicorn on July 25, 2014, 10:10:33 AM
Why is it I have a bad feeling our food crops that are in the commodity market, such as grain and corn, will end up being auctioned off to the highest bidder.... and I'm not just talking about the normal "exportable" amount either.......

This is going to get ugly soon........ and most people STILL don't have a clue!
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 31, 2014, 01:13:44 PM
Here's how the California Drought has gone from bad to worse to horrible.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bt5F2F9IgAAUPPs.png:large)

What happens if US loses California food production?
http://westernfarmpress.com/tree-nuts/what-happens-if-us-loses-california-food-production

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on July 31, 2014, 01:53:08 PM
Here's how the California Drought has gone from bad to worse to horrible.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bt5F2F9IgAAUPPs.png:large)

What happens if US loses California food production?
http://westernfarmpress.com/tree-nuts/what-happens-if-us-loses-california-food-production

Cedar

Yep, and the only reason the lower right corner is a lighter color, is that that area is basically already desert, never had much water, so the change in drought from normal is less
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 31, 2014, 04:54:59 PM
Yep, and the only reason the lower right corner is a lighter color, is that that area is basically already desert, never had much water, so the change in drought from normal is less


NICE! (Not so much)...

92F today and it smells like potential wildfires. Saw sheet rain coming down, SE of us, but I doubt it was hitting the ground.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on July 31, 2014, 05:33:00 PM

NICE! (Not so much)...

92F today and it smells like potential wildfires. Saw sheet rain coming down, SE of us, but I doubt it was hitting the ground.

Cedar
Yes, you guys are pretty hot too -- It was hot, humid, thunderstormish/fire feeling weather up there in my mind too, I just drove back down the 5 on monday from Tigard area, was in Portland before that, definitely just super hot and dry all the way back down, and the Shasta reservoir super low, and the Lexington reservoir ( by me, outside of silicon valley) the lowest ever too.  Stopped for well needed iced teas and blackberry shakes somewhere east of the freeway, to the west was Riddle and to the East was the burger place town..... Just super hot here on the mountain right now --
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 31, 2014, 05:40:20 PM
I am on a mountain, so I don't feel it like maybe the valley has, but the last two days smelled crispy.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 31, 2014, 10:31:58 PM
8 pm We had thunderstorms and I was worried about lightening strikes and fires.
9:31pm and it is pouring down rain. I am happy about that.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 31, 2014, 10:48:19 PM
England:
Farmers in the West Midlands have said harvests have failed to meet the expectations of just a month ago.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-28590213

Britain's wheat harvest this year could be almost 30% smaller than it was last year because of extreme weather, the National Farmers' Union has warned.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-22866982

Beleaguered farmers' third poor harvest in a row means British shoppers will rely on imported food - and prices will rise. Britain’s farmers are facing the third poor harvest on the run as the coldest March in 50 years plays havoc with crop planting – already significantly down because of last year’s wet weather.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/beleaguered-farmers-third-poor-harvest-in-a-row-means-british-shoppers-will-rely-on-imported-food--and-prices-will-rise-8556131.html

France:
The French are saying their wheat crop, the biggest in the EU, may not yield as well as they previously thought.

Worldwide yields July 2014 issue:
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/USDMNews.aspx

Water shortages affect tomatoes
http://www.recorderonline.com/news/water-shortages-affect-tomatoes/article_0739b6ca-0b70-11e4-942e-0017a43b2370.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: The Dark Unicorn on August 01, 2014, 07:03:43 AM
I've been having a heck of a time tying to get my container tomatoes to grow, Yellow leaves, no fruit.........

The community garden isn't doing much better! It seems like we've all been asking "where are the bees?" as well..................................

Fun Fun
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 01, 2014, 09:49:31 AM
The community garden isn't doing much better! It seems like we've all been asking "where are the bees?" as well.................................

Probably flying to find water to cools their hives.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 03, 2014, 11:18:40 PM
Been talking to the head of our gleaner's group. Started talking to her 2 months ago, that I was wondering if we would get the field gleans as much as we did last year due to the CA drought. By this time last year we had at least 8-10 field gleans.

We were talking about it again last Saturday... so far this year we have had ONE field glean for strawberries. This leads me to suspect that anything grown is being processed due to lack of products being grown in the US. There is not much or any surplus (yet). I do not think that we are behind schedule in the valley for crop harvests this year, so I think everything being grown, regardless of quality, is being shipped.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: The Dark Unicorn on August 04, 2014, 07:50:58 AM
^ Makes sense. They don't want people to begin to panic, so they will send everything out for processing unlike previous years.......

Glad I've been slowly finding clearance prices fruit plants that I'll be cultivating.....
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 04, 2014, 08:45:19 AM
^ Makes sense. They don't want people to begin to panic, so they will send everything out for processing unlike previous years.......

It is more like the canneries are filling contracts with no surplus. In the valley, the canneries on contract buy so much from farmers, of say beans. But they can't just buy it all from Farmer A. They have to buy from all the ones they have on contract. So the surplus left over from the day, gets iced in huge totes and sent to us at gleaners (and not just my gleaners. About 19 gleaner groups in Oregon that I know of). There has not been any surplus.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 12, 2014, 11:23:07 AM
The U.S. had its coolest July since 2009, with twice as many record cool temps as warm.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bu2M69HIAAA5-Ke.png:large)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 12, 2014, 05:34:09 PM
Unable to obtain affordable water for his trees, he hired a bulldozer to uproot about 400 acres of orange trees. He called his farm the “canary in the coal mine” for California agriculture, part of the 500,000 acres being abandoned this year, according to the University of California at Davis.....“If this persists in the next year, the devastation we will see here and across the state will be biblical.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-11/california-drought-transforms-global-food-market.html

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-california-drought-record-heat-sunburns-melon-crops-20140721-story.html

80% of California is now in extreme drought, new data show
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-california-extreme-drought-data-20140717-story.html

California agriculture industry facing $1 billion in drought losses
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-drought-study-california-agriculture-losses-20140715-story.html

Basically the darker it is, the more extreme the dryness
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20140805/20140805_ca_none.png)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on August 25, 2014, 04:25:10 AM
The other side of this year's weather.  News folks tend to go overboard, but there is no doubt corn prices have been falling fast around me.
 
  http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2014/08/22/bumper-crop-could-mean-bust-some-in-farm-sector/?intcmp=obnetwork
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 15, 2014, 08:57:25 AM
U.N. Warns of a Food Shortage 3 Years After Somalia’s Famine
http://www.wfp.org/content/un-warns-food-shortage-3-years-after-somalia%E2%80%99s-famine-0

Liberia doctors strike, UN warns of food shortages due to Ebola
http://af.reuters.com/article/sierraLeoneNews/idAFL5N0R32PN20140902

Thailand Donates Thai Rice to WHO in Relief Due to Food Shortages Caused by Ebola
http://thaiembassy.ca/en/about-embassy/news/thailand-donates-thai-rice-to-who-in-relief-due-to-food-shortages-caused-by-ebola

Koskei On Food Shortage
http://citizennews.co.ke/mobile/index.php/news/2012/local/item/22433-koskei-on-food-shortage.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 15, 2014, 09:11:45 AM
Not all the corn, soybeans and wheat are in yet. As much as 8 to 10 inches of snow fell in South Dakota. According to the National Weather Service in Rapid City, it represents the earliest recorded snow in the area, based on documents that go back to 1888. Meanwhile, North Dakota is bracing for a hard freeze tonight as temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s across the western and central parts of the state. "Precautions should be taken to protect sensitive vegetation," the National Weather Service advised. Not all the wheat and other crops are in yet. The USDA National Yield for corn and soybeans will be important in projecting overall supply and ending stocks. The study performed by Allendale’s Research suggests the USDA will not give us the full yield increase on the September report and use this report as a stepping stone to the final number in January. Wheat Farmers File Crop Insurance Claims in North Dakota. The Bismarck Tribune reports that a snowy April and wet May delayed planting, even preventing it in some cases. These days wet, cool weather continues to delay harvest and crop quality is becoming an issue. North Dakota' wheat crop is struggling with the sprouting of grains, kernel and hail damages.
http://www.agweb.com/article/wheat_farmers_file_crop_insurance_claims_in_north_dakota_NAA_Associated_Press/

California Drought Could Claim Quarter of Rice Crop. Nearly 25 percent of California's $5 billion rice crop will be lost this year due to lack of water, say experts. And while analysts say the loss is not a crisis just yet, at least one rice producer is ready to call it a day. "If we keep going through this drought, it may make us quit and sell the ranch," said Sherry Polit, who grows organic rice with her family on 1,500 acres in the Northern California town of Maxwell.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/california-drought/california-drought-could-claim-quarter-rice-crop-n200326

California drought could cause earthquakes, as well as crop failures
http://khon2.com/2014/09/06/dramatic-proof-that-californias-drought-is-one-of-the-worst-ever/

Alarm as almond farms consume California's water
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/sep/14/alarm-almond-farmers-drain-california-dry

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on September 15, 2014, 09:18:08 AM
September 9th drought map
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20140909/20140909_conus_display.png)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: cheryl1 on September 25, 2014, 12:20:02 AM
There is a lot of misery for farmers in CA right now
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on September 25, 2014, 01:19:07 PM
Delayed misery for us all, they are still watering those trees, just draining down the central valley aquifer, so the real misery is yet to come. We should not be growing water hungry perrenial crops in the central valley -- no way to adjust appropriatelly in drought years
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on November 10, 2014, 10:16:00 AM
“Another dry year, we don’t know what the result is going to be, but it’s not going to be good,” Wade said. The Merced Irrigation District is far worse off, as are many of the West Side areas supplied by the federal Central Valley Project. The Oakdale and South San Joaquin irrigation districts have not had large cutbacks, but leaders worry about a dry 2015.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article2598509.html

http://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article2613416.html

Californian Drought Map November 4, 2014
(The darker the colour, the more extreme drought. Light beige = Abormally dry; Brick Red = Exceptional Drought)
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20141104/20141104_ca_none.png)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on November 10, 2014, 10:18:40 AM
Unfortunately, since we had some rain last week, people are feeling good and optomistic about water around here. WHich is fine as long as they are not careless. But, we will see if we get a real winter.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on November 10, 2014, 10:55:06 AM
Unfortunately, since we had some rain last week, people are feeling good and optomistic about water around here. WHich is fine as long as they are not careless. But, we will see if we get a real winter.

I looked at the long term weather forcast for up to March 2015. Your area above average for dryness and above average for temperatures. Hopefully the weatherman at NOAA is wrong, but plan for the worst.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on November 10, 2014, 11:34:00 AM
I looked at the long term weather forcast for up to March 2015. Your area above average for dryness and above average for temperatures. Hopefully the weatherman at NOAA is wrong, but plan for the worst.

Cedar

I agree --- now, the other people round have a tendency to not look at the larger picture but think--- hey -- it rained !! Now, if it doesnt rain again for a while, they will start to pay attention

It is HOT right now. We had trouble falling asleep as it was 75'F downstairs and pretty darn hot up in ur lofts under the eaves.

My eldest is driving down saturday for the week -- I should warn her to bring her shorts
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on November 17, 2014, 07:52:46 PM
California drought hits San Mateo County coast particularly hard
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/California-drought-hits-San-Mateo-County-coast-5896053.php

California Chinook salmon fall run slowed amid warm weather, drought
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/18/us-usa-california-salmon-idUSKCN0J203Q20141118

California drought so bad, more residents forced to bathe out of buckets
http://www.catholic.org/news/green/story.php?id=57672

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on November 17, 2014, 08:09:38 PM
Nicaraguans told to eat iguanas as drought threatens food crisis. Lizard diet ridiculed but Central America’s poorest country is facing hunger because of poor harvests and rising food prices. Nicaraguans struggling to afford meat as the country suffers its worst drought in 32 years should consider raising and eating iguanas, a government expert has suggested.
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/aug/15/nicaraguans-iguanas-drought-food-crisis

The world’s biggest chocolate-maker says we’re running out of chocolate
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/15/the-worlds-biggest-chocolate-maker-says-were-running-out-of-chocolate/

Russian Inflation Hits Its Highest Level In 3 Years Amid First Signs Of Food Shortages
http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-inflation-hits-8-and-there-are-food-shortages-2014-10#ixzz3JNx7fWOG

Kansas Farmers Irrigating More Acres
http://www.agweb.com/article/kansas-farmers-irrigating-more-acres-associated-press/

Farmer comments from around the US this week
http://www.agweb.com/blog/Crop_Comments_137/

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Morning Sunshine on November 17, 2014, 08:30:14 PM
The world’s biggest chocolate-maker says we’re running out of chocolate
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/15/the-worlds-biggest-chocolate-maker-says-were-running-out-of-chocolate/
Cedar

and now I know the end is nigh.  The end of chocolate = TEOTWAWKI
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: kiteflyer on November 21, 2014, 11:52:33 AM
and now I know the end is nigh.  The end of chocolate = TEOTWAWKI

    It's The Chinese demanding to live like the westerns have the last fifty years. Don't worry some chemist will make the taste artificially however it will have very little natural Flavonoids for nutrition.

                                                              kiteflyer
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 07, 2014, 10:51:41 PM
California's current drought is the worst in at least 1,200 years.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B4StGZNIgAE6jYm.jpg:large)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on December 08, 2014, 04:14:23 AM
But improving somewhat, right?  I saw some maps this week from the Climate Prediction Center that showed most of the state on an upswing.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on December 17, 2014, 02:19:33 PM
In November 2014, continues to grip regions of each continent.  Asia saw drought continue or intensify both in the extreme east and west of the continent.  Some much needed rain came to northern China and Mongolia, slightly easing drought conditions there. In Thailand, drought has reduced the sugar crop. In Africa, drought continues to intensify in the extreme south and on Madagascar. In North America, drought continues in the U.S. Southwest and Southern Plains.  In South America, drought eased slightly in eastern Brazil, which is still struggling with water shortages. Sao Paulo city began tapping its technical reserve of water, a 60-day supply, on November 19.  In Europe, drought intensified again in the east. In Australia, drought continues to intensify in the southern and central part of the continent. The country is releasing aid to Queensland and New South Wales farmers as they suffer through their worst dry spell since records were kept.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Josh the Aspie on December 17, 2014, 03:53:15 PM
The world’s biggest chocolate-maker says we’re running out of chocolate
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/15/the-worlds-biggest-chocolate-maker-says-were-running-out-of-chocolate/

 :jaw-drop:  NNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

Not my chocolate!!!!!   :'(
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 21, 2015, 08:08:58 PM
Updated Drought Map

(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20150113/20150113_usdm_home.png)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 21, 2015, 08:15:32 PM
Three month outlook

Temps
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif)

Precipitation
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 21, 2015, 08:17:55 PM
- According to USDA, 2015 U.S. winter wheat planting was 40.452 million acres, from the 2014 total

Illinois: 550,000 acres, down 26% from 740,000 in 2014
Indiana: 360,000 acres, down 8% from 390,000 in 2014
Iowa: 24,000 acres, down 8% from 26,000 in 2014
Michigan: 500,000 acres, down 12% from 570,000 in 2014
Minnesota: 48,000 acres, up 14% from 42,000 in 2014
Missouri: 650,000 acres, down 26% from 880,000 in 2014
Nebraska: 1.7 million acres, up 10% from 1.55 million in 2014
Ohio: 540,000 acres, down 13% from 620,000 in 2014
South Dakota: 1.48 million acres, up 22% from 1.21 million in 2014
Wisconsin: 230,000 acres, down 22% from 295,000 in 2014

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 21, 2015, 08:26:06 PM
Rice:
The U.S. 2014/15 rice crop is estimated at 221.0 million cwt, down fractionally from the previous estimate.  Average yield is estimated at 7,572 pounds per acre, down 25 pounds per acre.

All rice imports for 2014/15 are increased 1.0 million cwt to 22.0 million due primarily to a large shipment of long-grain broken rice from Vietnam reported in the November trade data released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The export projection for 2014/15 is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 42.6 million due primarily to increases for Burma, Guyana, Paraguay, and Thailand.  Imports are raised for Bolivia, Haiti, Syria, and the United States.  Global rice ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 99.0 million tons, down 0.1 million from last month, and a decrease of 7.9 million from the prior year.  Ending stocks projections are lowered for Brazil and Thailand, but increased for Bangladesh and the United States.


Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Frugal Upstate on January 23, 2015, 01:34:05 PM
I swear you are psychic Cedar--I was just thinking about the drought this morning and wondering how the winter wheat crops were. . .
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 23, 2015, 02:20:27 PM
Nah.. not psychic. I check the weather often. Local, state, the US the most, but I also check the weather and crop reports worldwide every 3 or so months.

I was telling the head of my gleaners last April I would be surprised if we did not get much in for fresh fruits and veggies or field picks.. and sadly I was proved correct. We are still really low on fresh veggies and even frozen veggies. No frozen apples or berries this in 2014. No tomatoes, so I did not get to make the gallons of catsup and BBQ sauce I wanted to do..

There is always next year.. (and I am planting ALOT of tomatoes this year)...

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 27, 2015, 07:06:38 PM
Warm temperatures and dry topsoil conditions this month are combining to cause some concern about the condition of the U.S. winter wheat crop. Snow falling in west Texas gave partial relief to the dry conditions there, but areas of that state and Oklahoma still suffer from exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Most of Kansas and southern Nebraska are considered abnormally dry by the agency. There is precious little topsoil throughout the Wheat Belt. With temperatures topping 70 degrees in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas this week, one wonders how much of this precious moisture the crop is using, particularly as some wheat fields are awakening from their winter dormant period.
http://www.agriculture.com/crops/wheat/warm-temps-dry-conditions-cause-concern_144-ar47183

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on January 29, 2015, 09:50:58 AM
I found an article talking "Peak Food".

"The simultaneous peaking of crops and livestock comes against a backdrop of a growing population, which is expected to reach nine billion by 2050, requiring the world to produce twice as much food by then as it does now, according to a separate study by the California Academy of Sciences."

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/have-we-reached-peak-food-shortages-loom-as-global-production-rates-slow-10009185.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/have-we-reached-peak-food-shortages-loom-as-global-production-rates-slow-10009185.html)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 29, 2015, 10:08:04 AM
I am not overly surprised.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: suzysurvivor on January 29, 2015, 02:18:58 PM
it might sound crazy but i have started adding chocolate to my food stores...without it, my corner of the world could get mighty ugly. :o
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on January 29, 2015, 02:24:44 PM
I have some chocolate in my food storage, I used the foodsaver to vacume seal some organic dark chocolate chips(this particular type is from europe and is like a good chocolate bar), and some organic cocoa powder last year, these are in a bucket with a gamma seal lid, not a pound on lid, along with some similar packed popcorn. This bucket is down under the house where the temperature is much more stable than my kitchen or pantry. I checked after 1 year a few weeks ago, and this all is looking good, the super dark chocolate chips look great and fresh.

In my pantry, I also keep extra that I get to sooner. It would be bad to run out of chocolate right when the household and the community needs me to function well and cooperatively
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on January 29, 2015, 03:02:34 PM
Which causes me to ask, what is the best way to store chocolate, and how long can you store it.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: TexDaddy on January 29, 2015, 03:59:26 PM
it might sound crazy but i have started adding chocolate to my food stores...without it, my corner of the world could get mighty ugly. :o
I never have less than 144 bars of chocolate in the house.

Which causes me to ask, what is the best way to store chocolate, and how long can you store it.
I don't know how long it will keep. The original wrappers seal it pretty tight. We just rotate through them and the one I had to day was perfectly fresh and wonderful.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 29, 2015, 04:17:37 PM
I have never had a bad one in storage. They will 'discolor' from the sugar bloom or fat bloom, but 100% perfectly edible. I usually store solid chocolate Easter bunnies by smashing them, and then packaging them up in Seal-A-Meal, but I don't always bother.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: r_w on January 30, 2015, 07:22:16 PM
Vacuum sealed or O2 absorbers and cool and dark, it keeps longer than you need to worry about it.  Practically indefinitely, unless you hide it really well it will get eaten before it goes bad.  Maybe by your great grandkids...
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 02, 2015, 09:33:55 AM
California crop reports January 2015
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Other_Files/201501crppd.pdf
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/20150125crpw.pdf
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/20150111crpw.pdf

Ag Stats 2012
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/California_Ag_Statistics/Reports/2012cas-all.pdf

San Francisco gets no rain in January for the first time in 165 years
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8yeBgXCAAQy9A0.png:large)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 12, 2015, 10:43:07 AM
I got an email today from SSE about potatoes.. They were talking about one of my 'favorite' famine things to talk about.. the "Lumper".

"In 1845 Ireland planted about 2.1 million acres of potatoes, mostly of the variety known as "Irish Lumper" today.  In just two months time between one half & three quarters of a million acres were wiped out by P. infestans (blight)."

According to the Smithsonian, a similar famine in the United States today would kill almost 40 million people.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on March 12, 2015, 10:52:37 AM
I understand how Potatoes are a staple, but did the Irish put all their figurative eggs in one basket? Didn't they have other crops to sustain them?

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 12, 2015, 11:06:15 AM
I understand how Potatoes are a staple, but did the Irish put all their figurative eggs in one basket? Didn't they have other crops to sustain them?

It was a political thing too, but once I read that the Irish ate up to 11 pounds of spuds a day. The average for all men, women, and children was a more modest 9 pounds. English colonization of Ireland forced the Irish to pay exorbitant rents and taxes, to export their crops, and to increase their dependence on the potato crop. They could not afford much meat and there was no refrigeration. With the colonialization, a tenure system was introduced into Ireland that gave Protestant landlords control of  95% of the land. Every cottage had a garden equal to an acre and a half and the farmland amounted to five acres. As the population grew, the holdings were subdivided and living standards declined. To counter overpopulation, people moved to less fertile areas were the potato was one of the few sources of food that could be grown.
http://www1.american.edu/ted/POTATO.HTM <--- Great read

They did eat other things too, but limited. It is much like what my AG instructor told me in the 1980's when I was in high school. If there was a blight to hit any one of the five varieties of wheat grown mostly then, there would be worldwide famine. They may be less varieties grown now.

http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/everyday_economics/2001/03/putting_all_your_potatoes_in_one_basket.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Bonnieblue2A on March 12, 2015, 11:30:29 AM
I understand how Potatoes are a staple, but did the Irish put all their figurative eggs in one basket? Didn't they have other crops to sustain them?

Really great book on the topic:  http://www.amazon.com/The-Graves-Are-Walking-Famine/dp/1250032172

NYT book review:  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/14/books/review/the-graves-are-walking-by-john-kelly.html?_r=0

The lessons from the Irish Potato Famine  are among the best in support for establishing widespread polyculture food forests.

In regard to food prices, I've heard/read that beef prices will be heading lower after reaching market high records for the past 5 yrs. in a row.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 12, 2015, 11:55:21 AM
In regard to food prices, I've heard/read that beef prices will be heading lower after reaching market high records for the past 5 yrs. in a row.

I am not convinced of that. 17,000 cows a week PER COUNTY, in the hardest hit states during the drought, which was around 1,100 counties, were going to slaughter 2 years ago, and those were not just culls, those were quality animals, but send to the knackers due to the drought and lack of feed. It takes 18 months for a heifer to be old enough to be bred, then a cow has a 273 day gestation period, which is 9 months. Then most steers are killed for slaughter on the average of 18 months. So we are up to 45 months which is 3.75 years to catch up on, and the USDA estimates that there are about 95 million cows in the US right now, the lowest number since the USDA began recording cattle populations in 1973.

(https://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/cattle-inventory-in-the-us.jpeg?w=640)

One of the weird things I would not have thought about, is on average, shoes have gone up 2.8% in price—likely the result of increasing leather prices. That’s because a cattle shortage in the US has driven leather prices to all-time highs.

And look at the National Drought map this from 2 days ago. I am seeing HIGH hay prices again this year.
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20150310/20150310_usdm_home.png)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 12, 2015, 11:56:38 AM
Stats for the USDA say for the western US, "Population Affected by Drought: 52,242,708"

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: jhop on March 23, 2015, 07:05:28 PM
That number is incredible.   I wonder how many people realize food prices are going to sky rocket this year.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: r_w on March 25, 2015, 06:22:19 PM
Not enough.  Although with the election cycle coming up, they will try to keep it under control.  Unsuccessfully.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on March 28, 2015, 10:16:11 AM
There is a conspiracy of diminishing food supplies.
Here's the proof
(http://i.imgur.com/CJ2PMJP.jpg)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on March 28, 2015, 10:17:25 AM
On a more serious note:
Do biofuel policies seek to cut emissions by cutting food?


http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-03/pu-dbp032715.php
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on March 28, 2015, 04:49:18 PM
There is a conspiracy of diminishing food supplies.
Here's the proof
(http://i.imgur.com/CJ2PMJP.jpg)

If that is recent, they werent grown in the US at all were they ? Were they from Chile ?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on March 28, 2015, 07:05:43 PM
I'm not even sure Chili could make grapeless, grapes.  At ths rate, the only thing the stores will soo stock is foodless food...  ;)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on March 28, 2015, 08:13:26 PM
I'm not even sure Chili could make grapeless, grapes.  At ths rate, the only thing the stores will soo stock is foodless food...  ;)

I didnt even notice the typo in the sign !!

 I thought the comment was being sarcastic as the price is so low.....and I was thinking, yeah imported junky grapes are cheap  --- but real food is getting expensive
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 03, 2015, 08:15:02 AM
(http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/California-National-Drought-Monitor-425x175.jpg)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: designergirl28 on April 03, 2015, 06:12:31 PM
This is probably a stupid question, but does anyone know how much food actually comes from Cali? not just talking "fresh" veggies/fruit, but frozen, canned, nuts ect? I work in a grocery store so I know what comes in fresh, but can't even fathom what it entails for the rest of it.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 03, 2015, 06:29:14 PM
This is probably a stupid question, but does anyone know how much food actually comes from Cali? not just talking "fresh" veggies/fruit, but frozen, canned, nuts ect? I work in a grocery store so I know what comes in fresh, but can't even fathom what it entails for the rest of it.

California agriculture generates roughly $37.5 billion annually, more than any other state.

California produces: (as of 2 years ago)

90% of the broccoli grown in the USA
99% of artichokes
99%  of walnuts
97% of kiwis
97% of plums
95% of celery
95% of tomatoes destined for canning
95% of garlic
90% leaf lettuce
89% of cauliflower
88% fresh strawberries
86% of lemons
84% peaches
83% of Romaine lettuce
71% of spinach
69% of carrots
50% of bell peppers
25% oranges
44% of asparagus
1/5th of cabbage
2/3rds of carrots

Not to mention dairy, beef, and other commodities.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: designergirl28 on April 03, 2015, 07:00:02 PM
Good lord have mercy. That is a lot of food to have shortages/price increases on. If prices rise as much as I can see them going (based on what I am seeing with the flower shortages I have from the affected areas, that normally are a precursor to the seasonal veggies/fruits) my grocery list will have to be slashed and the budget in that area will not go as far. Time to go shopping and add to my Lts.

 Thanks Cedar for that info.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Ms. Albatross on April 03, 2015, 07:08:32 PM
And my favorite - avocados.  90% of the fresh avocados come from California.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 04, 2015, 08:34:49 AM
How historic California drought affects rest of nation, often for the worse
http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/03/us/california-drought/index.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on April 04, 2015, 09:28:53 AM
(http://www.agweb.com/assets/1/19/2015drought.JPG?272750)

This April's drought footprint is the largest April drought footprint in more than a decade.

"There’s been much talk of the severe droughts currently plaguing the West and High Plains, but drought has quietly but steadily crept into the Midwest. According to the last report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, 45.89% of the Midwest is currently categorized as having some level of drought. That’s the highest level it has been this time of year in more than a decade."

"The National Weather Service's (NWS) says drought is likely to develop in the eastern portions of the Dakotas, across Minnesota and southern Wisconsin, while the long-lasting drought across the Plains could see some improvement, but largely remain intact. "
http://www.profarmer.com/news-analysis/commodities/nws-drought-likely-to-develop-in-upper-midwest-by-spring

Drought Devastating Southeastern Colorado
http://www.agweb.com/article/drought_devestating_southeastern_colorado_NAA_News_Release/

California rice crops. In a typical year, rice farms flood 250,000 to 300,000 acres in winter, but this year as few as 50,000 acres may be flooded because of water restrictions, according to the rice commission.
http://www.agweb.com/article/drought-hurts-california-rice-harvest-associated-press/


Around the world:
World Ag highlights
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Monthly/current.pdf


Between winter kill, war and economics, Russia will grow less wheat this year
http://www.agweb.com/article/russian-farms-losing-money-on-cheap-wheat-exporter-group-says-blmg/

Ukraine not shipping as much wheat
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-23/ukraine-moves-to-limit-wheat-shipments-as-food-concerns-spread






"South Africa is importing corn for the first time in 11 months as the worst drought since 1992 destroyed crops in the continent’s biggest producer, the largest local grain farmers’ organization said.
The nation will need to import 934,000 metric tons of yellow corn, worth about $137 million at current international prices, from countries such as Argentina and Ukraine in the year through to the end of March 2016. "

http://www.agweb.com/article/south-africas-worst-drought-since-1992-prompts-corn-imports-blmg/

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 03, 2015, 09:43:02 AM
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20150428/20150428_usdm_home.png)

- Last week in the Brazilian city of São Paulo, home to 20 million people, and once known as the City of Drizzle,drought got so bad that residents began drilling through basement floors and car parks to try to reach groundwater. City officials warned last week that rationing of supplies was likely soon. Citizens might have access to water for only two days a week, they added.

- In California, officials have revealed that the state has entered its fourth year of drought with January this year becoming the driest since meteorological records began. At the same time, per capita water use has continued to rise.

- At a media briefing late last week to discuss impacts of the four-year drought on rice growers, the California Rice Commission said it expects more land will be idled this year, but exactly how much won't be known until later this spring. Growers planted 23 percent less rice acreage in 2014 than in 2013, according to the commission. http://www.agalert.com/story/?id=8169

April 9th, 2015 crop production report
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-04-09-2015.txt

Cedar

- In the Middle East, swaths of countryside have been reduced to desert because of overuse of water. Iran is one of the most severely affected. Heavy overconsumption, coupled with poor rainfall, have ravaged its water resources and devastated its agricultural output. Similarly, the United Arab Emirates is now investing in desalination plants and waste water treatment units because it lacks fresh water. "Now water is more important than oil".

Water Stress Map
(http://i.guim.co.uk/static/w-1920/h--/q-95/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/3/7/1425755130315/04e31ac5-c577-48ab-aaf5-388d616a18f4-2060x1148.png)


- Venezuela will begin installing some 20,000 fingerprint scanners at supermarkets nationwide in a bid to stamp out hoarding and panic buying, which the government blames for long lines and widespread shortages of basic goods
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2015/03/08/venezuela-to-install-finger-scanners-in-supermarkets-to-tackle-hoarding-panic/


Current USDA crop report
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-04-27-2015.txt

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Bonnieblue2A on May 03, 2015, 12:51:35 PM
This H5N2 avian flu that has spread across commercial turkey and chicken farms in the Midwest also has the potential to drive up both the price of poultry meat and eggs.

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on May 03, 2015, 02:22:14 PM
This H5N2 avian flu that has spread across commercial turkey and chicken farms in the Midwest also has the potential to drive up both the price of poultry meat and eggs.

Actually it is worse than that. The Californian Rice crops are less. But they are not only used for rice. 85% of waterfowl which migrate in this area, are using the rice areas. With less rice areas, with them not having the water in them, the birds are flocking to areas with the water (the remaining water laden rice fields), so they are condensing population which will cause more disease issues, including H5N2.
http://www.calwaterfowl.org/drought
http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article2605292.html
http://www.ducks.org/conservation/farm-bill/rice-and-ducks---by-matt-young

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 19, 2015, 01:01:05 PM
I don't usually pay much attention to North Korea, but a totally different kind of article prodded me to look into the drought there. It is the worst in 100 years. North Korea faces further food shortages as production in the country’s main growing region is expected to be cut in half, the United Nations food agency said.  Potato, wheat and barley harvests were at risk of being cut by up to 50% in drought-hit areas.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/19/north-korea-fears-famine-as-drought-halves-food-production-says-un

Country expected to face famine if unusually dry weather continues as 30 percent of its rice paddies dry up.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/06/north-korea-hit-worst-drought-century-150617175703554.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on June 19, 2015, 01:03:33 PM
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20150616/20150616_usdm_home.png)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: jhop on July 08, 2015, 06:20:49 PM
Today I learned there is a world wide shortage of Canned Mushrooms.  I'll try and post the pick I took at the grocery store.   
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: r_w on July 08, 2015, 06:53:10 PM
And the wet weather here has ruined much of the wheat crop.  Not sure how widespread the damage is.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 20, 2015, 02:33:36 PM
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20150714/20150714_usdm_home.png)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on July 21, 2015, 10:53:24 AM
Eggs surpass Chicken meat in price.
Though the chart is a bit misleading by using chicken breast as the standard rather than whole chicken.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CKWDtakWsAEJDQ9.jpg:large)
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 21, 2015, 10:57:39 AM
There is a conspiracy of diminishing food supplies.
Here's the proof
(http://i.imgur.com/CJ2PMJP.jpg)

They are GMO or synthetic?

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on July 21, 2015, 11:17:16 AM
For Grapeless Grapes? They've got to be GMO.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 21, 2015, 11:55:25 AM
For Grapeless Grapes? They've got to be GMO.

Or the stuff what they make grape Mr Misty drinks out of... *Blagh* To me, they smell like those grape smelling pencil erasers we had in the 4th grade.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: nkawtg on July 21, 2015, 01:24:32 PM
I haven't been to a Dairy Queen in a long time.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 04, 2015, 10:19:53 PM
Millions of locusts have descended on farmlands in southern Russia, devouring entire fields of crops and causing officials to declare a state of emergency in the region. A vast area of at least 800 hectares is currently being affected as the swarms of insects, each measuring about 8 centimeters long, annihilate fields of corn and other crops. It's been more than 30 years since this part of southern Russia suffered such a dense plague of locusts, according to local officials. Officials say at least 10% of crops have already been destroyed, and the locust feeding frenzy is far from over, threatening to devastate the livelihoods of local farmers.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/04/europe/russia-locust-swarms/

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Sunshine on August 05, 2015, 11:09:12 AM
Millions of locusts have descended on farmlands in southern Russia, devouring entire fields of crops and causing officials to declare a state of emergency in the region. A vast area of at least 800 hectares is currently being affected as the swarms of insects, each measuring about 8 centimeters long, annihilate fields of corn and other crops. It's been more than 30 years since this part of southern Russia suffered such a dense plague of locusts, according to local officials. Officials say at least 10% of crops have already been destroyed, and the locust feeding frenzy is far from over, threatening to devastate the livelihoods of local farmers.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/04/europe/russia-locust-swarms/

Cedar


So... pestilence, famine, plagues of locusts...  check, check, and check.   :o

Seriously though, looking at the last couple pages of graphs that Cedar posted and watching the progression through the months... it's very eye opening.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 13, 2015, 07:10:43 PM
"There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016," the NOAA said in a statement.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 13, 2015, 07:12:34 PM
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20150714/20150714_usdm_home.png)

(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20150811/20150811_usdm_home.png)


Oregon one year ago
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20140812/20140812_OR_date.png)

Oregon today, one year later
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20150811/20150811_or_none.png)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on August 13, 2015, 07:17:34 PM
Crop reports are starting to come in
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 03, 2016, 07:52:37 PM
US drought Map
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20151229/20151229_usdm_home.png)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 03, 2016, 08:07:03 PM
The worst flooding across the U.S. Midwest in four years is disrupting everything from oil to agriculture, forcing pipelines, terminals and grain elevators to close and killing off thousands of pigs. Hog producers in southern Illinois are calling other farmers, hoping to find extra barn space to relocate their pigs, said Jennifer Tirey, executive director of the Illinois Pork Producers Association. Processors are sending additional trucks out to retrieve market-ready pigs, she said. In one case, an overflowing creek took out electricity and made roads impassable, causing 2,000 pigs to drown.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-30/floods-shutting-midwest-oil-pipeline-seen-worsening-record-glut


Texas Blizzard Impact Will Bring Total to 40,000 Lost Southwest Dairy Cattle. Four days after what is possibly the worst storm on record for cattle in the area, operations are returning to normal. The storm rolled into the Clovis, N.M., and Lubbock, Texas, region Saturday evening and was gone by Monday morning. But the 22” inches of snow paired with wind gusts, some reaching over 60 miles per hour, was too much for many cattle, and proved impossible for some dairies to continue operating at the time. The uncharacteristic weather was to the extreme for the High Plains region
http://www.agweb.com/article/texas-blizzard-impact-will-bring-total-to-40000-lost-southwest-dairy-cattle-naa-dairy-herd-management/


Between the weather reports from Brazil and the trade policy changes in Argentina, many are wondering how to handicap the South American corn and soybean crops this year—and its effects on U.S. prices.
http://www.agweb.com/article/clock-is-ticking-on-south-american-crop-naa-alison-rice/


There have been many questions concerning winter wheat and cover crops that have been subjected to the adverse effects of flooding.  With the unprecedented rainfall in the last two months across Missouri many winter wheat and cover crop fields have been flooded or saturated for varying periods in portions of the state. The impact that flooding, waterlogging and potential ice sheeting may have on the winter crops could be significant.
http://agfax.com/2015/12/30/missouri-unprecedented-rain-flood-impacts-wheat-cover-crops/
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-crops-wheat-idUSKBN0UC0ON20151229

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 16, 2016, 05:39:37 PM
According to the USDA winter wheat acreage is down almost 2.8 million acres from last year to 36.6 million acres. This represents a 7% decline from last year, a 14% decline since 2014 and the lowest winter wheat acreage since 2010. This potentially sets the US up for the lowest winter wheat crop since 2002.

Given USDA’s initial projection for winter wheat, and assuming that history is an indication, the market should prepare for overall 2016 wheat area to be down quite significantly in the United States.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wheat-braun-idUSKCN0US2DH20160114

Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 16, 2016, 05:45:48 PM
The USDA dropped the "Grass Fed" label on beef about the same time that the cattle markets started crashing at the end of 2015. R-CALF USA has sent a formal request to the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary to investigate the collapse in the cattle market. Concerns for the group are that antitrust and anticompetitive conduct may have occurred in the U.S. beef and cattle markets during 2015. Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley says if the accusations are credible the committee would have a responsibility to look into the matter.
http://www.agweb.com/article/cattle-markets-crashed-r-calf-wants-answers-naa-wyatt-bechtel/

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 16, 2016, 06:05:07 PM
World Agriculture Weather Highlights January 12, 2016
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Monthly/current.pdf

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 25, 2016, 03:36:11 PM
Canadian restaurants and grocery stores warn customers of high food prices. Owners say customers are struggling with the high price of fruits and vegetables.     As prices for commodities have dropped, the value of the Canadian dollar has fallen, a direct link to an economy that is dependent on oil and other resources. It makes imports, like fresh American vegetables during the dark Canadian winter, look especially costly. Two years ago, one Canadian dollar was worth 93 American cents. On Wednesday, it stood at 69 American cents. Canada imports 80 percent of its produce – much of it comes from California where the prolonged drought has caused prices to rise in terms of American dollars.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-restaurants-grocery-stores-food-prices-1.3416694
http://www.naturalnews.com/052749_food_inflation_consumer_goods_prices_Rising.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-13/canadians-panic-food-prices-soar-collapsing-currency

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 25, 2016, 03:42:04 PM
US Food Price Outlook, 2016

- Looking ahead to 2016, ERS predicts food-at-home (supermarket) prices to rise 2.0 to 3.0 percent

http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings.aspx

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 31, 2016, 09:35:08 PM
The University of Guelph Food Institute predicted last month that the average Canadian household will spend $345 more on food in 2016 than last year, and many have already pointed out the higher prices.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/forum-food-prices-1.3426477

Canadian food banks hope that the pinch they're feeling from rising food prices isn't snowballing into a full-fledged crisis.
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/01/31/canadian-food-banks-fear-perfect-storm-from-rising-fresh-food-prices_n_9125282.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 08, 2016, 09:48:32 AM
A nationwide food shortage is threatening your dinner table and your bank account, and it's about to get worse, as it gets harder for local restaurants and stores to feed their customers' needs.
http://www.wdrb.com/story/30881799/nationwide-food-shortage-hitting-local-shoppers-in-the-wallet

Freezing in Mexico and Arizona
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Mexicos-North-Hit-by-Freezing-Weather-20151228-0004.html
http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix/2016/01/13/cold-weather-takes-toll-phoenix-area-gardens/78737452/

Canadian Wheat Stocks Historically Tight. Year-ending stocks of wheat in Canada plunged nearly 20% below 2014 levels, according to Statistics Canada’s Stocks of Principal Field Grains report, released Thursday. 02/04/2016

(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20160202/20160202_usdm_home.png)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: CharlesH on February 08, 2016, 04:25:12 PM
It would be interesting to see how the price of frozen and canned vegetables is moving compared to fresh.  It seems like there would be more volatility in the fresh produce section of the market while prices shift more slowly in the other aisles.  Kind of like looking at a moving average in the stock market, could canned and frozen food prices give us clearer look at prices by removing some of the short term volatility caused by weather?
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 15, 2016, 08:07:57 AM
And on top of everything else.. Xylella fastidiosa. Xylella fastidiosa is one of the most dangerous plant bacteria worldwide, causing a variety of diseases, with huge economic impact for agriculture. It’s also issued an emergency quarantine for the nine counties in Oregon where the pear tree scions were shipped: Benton, Hood River, Jackson, Lane, Linn, Marion, Multnomah, Washington and Yamhill. Violating the quarantine is punishable by fines of up to $10,000.

Although the bacteria has so far been associated with pear trees in Oregon, the quarantine prohibits shipments of any host plant material, including oak, maple, blackberry, caneberry, blueberry and stone fruit,

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/14/uk-alert-phony-peach-disease
http://ec.europa.eu/food/plant/plant_health_biosecurity/legislation/emergency_measures/xylella-fastidiosa/index_en.htm
http://www.capitalpress.com/Oregon/20151209/bacteria-discovery-prompts-oregon-quarantine

It effects olives in Europe, coffee and way more stuff we might get worried about.

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 21, 2016, 09:18:28 AM
Texas starting to get dry
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20160216/20160216_usdm_home.png)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 21, 2016, 09:22:07 AM
1,225 Dairy Farmers Call It Quits in 2015 Wisconsin dipped below 10,290 farms this past year to 9,900. That’s a drop of 390 farms.

Scroll to page 18
http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/mkpr0216.pdf

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 21, 2016, 09:26:26 AM
World Ag Weather
http://www.worldagweather.com/crops.php#summary

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 09, 2016, 10:21:20 PM
Olive oil prices spiked 20% in 2015, after drought and disease devastated a big part of Europe's olive crop, and industry experts are forecasting a similar increase this year. Spain, which produces about 40% of the world's olive oil, experienced an unusually hot and dry summer in 2014. That led to the worst harvest in nearly 20 years, farmers say.  Millions of olive trees in Italy, which produces 20% of the world's olive oil, have been attacked by a deadly disease.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/09/news/olive-oil-shortage-price/index.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: d3nni5 on March 10, 2016, 11:11:46 AM
Olive oil prices spiked 20% in 2015, after drought and disease devastated a big part of Europe's olive crop, and industry experts are forecasting a similar increase this year. Spain, which produces about 40% of the world's olive oil, experienced an unusually hot and dry summer in 2014. That led to the worst harvest in nearly 20 years, farmers say.  Millions of olive trees in Italy, which produces 20% of the world's olive oil, have been attacked by a deadly disease.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/09/news/olive-oil-shortage-price/index.html

Cedar

That sucks, one of my favorite things to cook with.  :(
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: mountainmoma on March 10, 2016, 11:58:37 AM
Olive oil prices spiked 20% in 2015, after drought and disease devastated a big part of Europe's olive crop, and industry experts are forecasting a similar increase this year. Spain, which produces about 40% of the world's olive oil, experienced an unusually hot and dry summer in 2014. That led to the worst harvest in nearly 20 years, farmers say.  Millions of olive trees in Italy, which produces 20% of the world's olive oil, have been attacked by a deadly disease.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/09/news/olive-oil-shortage-price/index.html

Cedar

I had noticed the price spike, and so have less in the pantry -- sounds like I should go ahead and keep a few back-ups as it is going to get worse !
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 10, 2016, 10:59:20 PM
Maple syrup-makers say warm winter may hurt production
http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/us/article/Maple-syrup-makers-say-warm-winter-may-hurt-6880208.php

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 20, 2016, 02:02:56 PM
Hungry Venezuelans cry at the sight of food, as economic crisis deepens. Tearful Venezuelans had gone weeks without basic food items like milk, flour and toilet paper. It's a sad but common part of daily life today in crisis-ridden Venezuela, a country that has the world's largest proven reserves of oil. Colombian officials estimate that about 100,000 Venezuelans crossed the border.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/20/news/economy/venezuela-world-worst-economy/index.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Stwood on July 20, 2016, 11:59:23 PM
1,225 Dairy Farmers Call It Quits in 2015 Wisconsin dipped below 10,290 farms this past year to 9,900. That’s a drop of 390 farms.

Scroll to page 18
http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/mkpr0216.pdf

Cedar

So what's happening there? Little guy not making ends meet, going bankrupt, then the big co's buying them up?
That's what's happening in MO with the ranchers. The big Texas ranchers are coming in and buying the big established ranches here (2-3-4 thousand acres) .
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 21, 2016, 07:26:03 AM
So what's happening there? Little guy not making ends meet, going bankrupt, then the big co's buying them up?
That's what's happening in MO with the ranchers. The big Texas ranchers are coming in and buying the big established ranches here (2-3-4 thousand acres) .

Although this article is from the UK, it pretty much speaks for here
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/27/we-simply-want-to-be-able-to-afford-to-keep-going-uk-farmers-on-their-industry

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Stwood on July 24, 2016, 10:14:10 PM
I finally got around to reading that article. Thanks Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 24, 2016, 10:18:49 PM
Not too bad compared to last year I think... even since February

(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20160719/20160719_usdm_home.png)

and...
(http://www.californiadrought.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/e1.png)

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on July 24, 2016, 10:42:49 PM
Drought Hurts California Rice Harvest, California, the nation's second largest rice-growing state after Arkansas, usually produces more than five million pounds of rice and sells about half of it abroad, to over 100 countries.
http://www.agweb.com/article/drought-hurts-california-rice-harvest-associated-press/

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, production of oranges are down 9 percent, avocados down 13 percent, garlic down 6 percent, romaine lettuce 15 percent, and olives 29 percent in 2014
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/06/22/the_california_drought_s_lessons_for_food_security.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 13, 2017, 03:00:01 PM
Woo Hoo!!! With this big storm that California just had, the powers that be, say that 42% of the state is no longer in a drought. Bad news.. is that 58% still is.

(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20170110/20170110_usdm_home.png)

Farm Commodities report <-- I like this new format
https://www.usfoods.com/content/dam/usf/pdf/farmers_report/FarmersReport.pdf


Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on January 13, 2017, 03:48:44 PM
Analysts expect an even greater global wheat glut in 2017 to drive down prices and whittle away at acreage. Pushing down prices are three consecutive years of  world wheat production and carryout. USDA estimates a third record global wheat harvest of 751.26 MMT in 2016-17, which will send carryover to a record 252.14 MMT.
http://www.agweb.com/article/2017-outlook-global-glut-pushes-down-wheat-prices-naa-debra-beachy/

https://www.worldwheatproduction.com/

Cedar

Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Stwood on January 13, 2017, 04:43:16 PM
Well it's good to be able to store it, if they will.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on February 19, 2017, 11:17:20 AM
More than 20 million people risk dying from starvation within six months in four separate famines, the World Food Programme (WFP) warned last week.

Conflicts in Yemen, northeastern Nigeria and South Sudan have devastated households and driven up prices, while a drought in Somalia has ruined the agricultural economy.
http://m.france24.com/en/20170219-famine-threatens-nigeria-south-sudan-yemen-somalia

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Cedar on March 04, 2017, 06:59:12 PM
Conflicts in Yemen, northeastern Nigeria and South Sudan have devastated households and driven up prices, while a drought in Somalia has ruined the agricultural economy.

At least 110 people, most of them women and children, have died from starvation and drought-related illness in Somalia in the past 48 hours

http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/04/africa/somalia-drought-deaths/index.html

https://www.oxfam.org/en/somalia/famine-somalia-causes-and-solutions

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/somalia-dead-drought-starve-prime-minister-hassan-khaire-united-nations-famine-mogadishu-country-a7611471.html

Cedar
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LVWood on May 01, 2017, 01:05:27 PM
Probably the entire western Kansas winter wheat crop was lost this weekend due to heavy snow.

http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/we-lost-the-western-kansas-wheat-crop-this-weekend
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Stwood on May 01, 2017, 01:25:28 PM
Uum not good. Have a friend that farms in Mullinville. He's in the southwest so may have missed all that.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: LVWood on August 07, 2017, 05:15:09 PM
A friend on another board reported he was getting 28 pound buckets of Augason Farms wheat for 17 something a bucket. It is now 33 something a bucket.

Remember this story from May 1?
http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/we-lost-the-western-kansas-wheat-crop-this-weekend
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Redman on August 07, 2017, 05:43:53 PM
I think there has been something very odd happening with food prices over the last several years and I don't think it's weather related. Related to what I don't know.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Stwood on August 07, 2017, 05:53:40 PM
Yes. Some costs are way up, some going down.
Then around here, we are seeing fast food places having a lot of special, down to earth food prices. Trying to stay in business maybe?


Guess we'll have to shift gears and stock up on other food stuffs when something doubles in price.
Title: Re: Food prices increasing, possible shortages (merged topics)
Post by: Redman on August 08, 2017, 03:56:54 AM
Around here beef has for the most part become a very large part of folks food budget I think. I haven't bought any beef in a couple years unless I could get a really good price. Doesn't happen often. For a while chicken was very reasonable and for the past two or three years I've been able to get whole picnics, Boston butts and boneless pork loins are very good prices also. I also don't do all our shopping at one store, an excellent way to go broke IMO. I will plan out my purchases and make a round trip to several stores, we made a grocery list that we can put items at several stores on for that trip, or sometimes to only one to replenish my stock of what I buy there.