The Survival Podcast Forum

Finance and Economics => The Money Board => Investing and Saving => Topic started by: TooMuchGlass on October 09, 2016, 11:23:06 AM

Title: Potential gains in tangibles with the coming election?
Post by: TooMuchGlass on October 09, 2016, 11:23:06 AM
I searched for this sort of thing but didn't find much. If there is already another thread, please let me know.

I really don't want to talk politics here, just results of the election.

Concerning guns, ammo, etc. :

I figure if Trump wins, it is business as usual, but I don't see prices going down on much of anything.

If Clinton wins, then every gun in the U.S. will automatically triple in cost.
Alright, so that is overstating it, but if the last "panic" is an indicator, I would imagine prices will rise.

So here is the question: with limited downside and a potential upside, is it wise to sink extra funds in guns and ammo before that fateful day in November? If so, what?

It's hard to vote against putting some money in ARs, .223, and pmags right now, right?
Title: Re: Potential gains in tangibles with the coming election?
Post by: fritz_monroe on October 09, 2016, 04:04:56 PM
I really don't want to talk politics here, just results of the election.
Good call and reminder that this is not a politics board.  So keep it on topic.
Title: Re: Potential gains in tangibles with the coming election?
Post by: Mr. Bill on October 09, 2016, 06:29:23 PM
It may be that prices are already up because of the fair likelihood that Clinton will win.  If so, your upside may be limited.
Title: Re: Potential gains in tangibles with the coming election?
Post by: TheRetiredRancher on October 10, 2016, 11:29:16 AM
This seems to be a question about more than just guns.  So my reply will be a little bit lengthy.  So let me start out with a Stock market/general economy prediction, then move on to the guns/ammo part of the question.

1)  Clinton wins: The stock market will like it.  There will be a small jump in S&P 500 then it will decline quickly to the very volatile stagnation that it has been in the several months.  Longer term the economy will go into recession.

2) Trump wins:  The stock market will hate it.  It will drop into correction territory ~10% then climb back up to where it is now but remain very volatile.  The longer term economy will go into a recession.

3) miracles happen and Johnson wins the second round House vote to fill the presidency as there was no majority winner in the Electoral college:  The stock market hates the uncertainty and falls by 10-20%.  The economy goes immediately into recession and stays there for a year or so, then climbs up a little on stable and more open trade.

So what does this mean to firearms?

A)  Clinton:  A little panic buying drives up the price of "assault weapons" but not too much as the market is getting fairly saturated.  Stock in Ruger and S & W goes up but does not stay up, everything settles down until the Clinton assault weapons ban II goes into effect at which time only emasculated low capacity magazines and perhaps even fixed magazines are legal to make.  No effect on normal ammo, but bans on frangible and "green tipped" armor piercing rounds.

B) Trump: No immediate effect:  If a bad terrorist uses an AR or AK again in an Orlando fashion, Trump will not hesitate to squash personal freedoms to the extent Hillary would have already done with the Ban II.  No effect on Ammo.

C) Johnson:  No immediate effect- maybe a little  long term effects easing off of new laws or regulations, but no reversal of older ones.

Conclusions:  Stocking up does not make sense financially, If you were thinking about buying something , then go ahead.  If you really feel like making a statement - buy some 30 round capacity magazines and a couple of stripped AR lowers that take removable mags.  It never hurts to have more ammo, but don't expect to make any money on it.

That is my 2 cents worth.

Title: Re: Potential gains in tangibles with the coming election?
Post by: notmyrealname on October 10, 2016, 12:10:52 PM
The way I've heard it is IF Clinton wins, AND the House (or was it the Senate?) get Democrat majorities,  THEN gun legislation might be on the way.   But if enough of Congress is in opposition, limitations may not be able to get passed.

Hope I have that right.   The guns are my husband's job.
Title: Re: Potential gains in tangibles with the coming election?
Post by: Smurf Hunter on October 10, 2016, 12:39:53 PM
Buy gun stocks (RGR, SWHC) if you think Clinton will win.  As others have noted (correctly in my opinion), a Clinton win will have a temporary boost across the market.  This rising sea will raise "all ships" momentarily, and with speculative panic buying, it's a double win for gun stock prices.
Title: Re: Potential gains in tangibles with the coming election?
Post by: hackmeister on October 11, 2016, 09:16:45 AM
Regardless, I've been building up my ammo levels to where I want to be. I've also purchased enough 30 round mags for my rifles in case they get banned. If Trump wins I'm good. If Hillary wins I have enough ammo and mags to outlast any executive orders banning foreign manufactured ammunition or "high capacity" magazines. Regardless what Hillary says she wants to ban weapons and make it more regulated. Higher sales taxes, ammo limits, banning online purchases, requiring liability insurance, requiring home inspections and worse are all on the table. Replacing 3 or more supreme court justices will make it much easier for her. Don't kid yourself. The 2nd Amendment is not about hunting, it's about the power of the people to rise up and remove a tyrannical government if necessary.