The Survival Podcast Forum

Survivalism & Self Sufficiency Topics => COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic => Topic started by: Mr. Bill on January 20, 2020, 01:56:42 PM

Title: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on January 20, 2020, 01:56:42 PM
NPR, 1/20/20: Coronavirus In China: Over 200 Cases, Human-To-Human Transmission (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/01/20/797926447/coronavirus-in-china-over-200-cases-human-to-human-transmission)

Quote
New information is being reported about the new coronavirus that emerged in China in December and causes respiratory symptoms such as pneumonia — heightening concerns about its potential threat to humans.

On Monday, Chinese authorities reported that the total caseload has risen to over 200, roughly tripling the previous number. In addition, authorities in Wuhan, where the virus was first reported, confirmed a third death but did not release details except to say that the three victims, all men, had prior illnesses.

Health authorities believe that the virus probably originated in an as yet unidentified animal species and was transmitted to humans by contact with animals at a live animal market in the central city of Wuhan. ...

On Monday, Zhong Nanshan, the epidemiologist who leads the committee on the outbreak for China's National Health Commission, gave a TV interview stating there was evidence of human-to-human transmission.

China's National Health Commission also confirmed that there has been infection of medical staff. ...

This is unusual for China:
Quote
...On Monday, President Xi Jinping gave an interview to the state-run Xinhua News Agency in which he called on officials to "release outbreak information in a timely manner and deepen international cooperation." ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on January 21, 2020, 02:07:40 PM
AP, 1/21/20: US gets 1st case of mysterious new Chinese illness (https://apnews.com/55ca0341f316719af71b16a0b9c05b65)

Quote
...a Washington state resident who returned last week from the outbreak’s epicenter was hospitalized in good condition near Seattle.

The man, identified only as a Snohomish County resident is in his 30s, was not considered a threat to medical staff or the public, health officials said. ...

Late last week, U.S. health officials began screening passengers from Wuhan in central China, where the outbreak began, at three U.S. airports — New York City’s Kennedy airport and the Los Angeles and San Francisco airports. On Tuesday, the CDC announced it will add Chicago’s O’Hare airport and Atlanta’s airport to the mix later this week.

What’s more, officials will begin forcing all passengers that originate in Wuhan to go to one of those five airports if they wish to enter the U.S. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: scoop on January 21, 2020, 02:54:11 PM
The Timeline Of The Coronavirus Outbreak

December 31 2019:
The WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. Around 44 suspected cases were reported in the month of December.

January 1 2020:
A seafood market was closed for environmental sanitation and disinfection after being closely linked with the patients.

January 5 2020:
Doctors ruled out severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) as being the cause of the virus, as well as bird flu, Middle East respiratory syndrome and adenovirus. Meanwhile, Hong Kong reported

January 9 2020:
A preliminary investigation identified the respiratory disease as a new type of coronavirus, Chinese state media reported.

Officials at Wuhan Municipal Health Commission reported the outbreak's first death on January 9, a 61-year-old man.

January 13 2020:
A Chinese woman in Thailand was the first confirmed case of the mystery virus outside of China. The 61-year-old was quarantined on January 8, but has since returned home in a stable condition after having treatment, the Thai Health Ministry said.

January 14 2020:
The WHO told hospitals around the globe to prepare, in the 'possible' event of the infection spreading.

It said there is some 'limited' human-to-human transmission of the virus. Two days previously, the UN agency said there was 'no clear evidence of human to human transmission'.

January 16 2020:
A man in Tokyo is confirmed to have tested positive for the disease after travelling to the Chinese city of Wuhan.

A second death, a 69-year-old man, was reported by officials at Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. He died in the early hours of January 15 at Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan city having first been admitted to hospital on December 31.

January 17 2020:
Thailand announces it has detected a second case. The 74-year-old woman had been quarantined since her arrival on Monday. She lived in Wuhan.

Scientists at Imperial College London fear up to 4,500 patients in Wuhan may have caught the virus. A report said if cases are this high, substantial human to human transmission can't be ruled out.

January 20 2020:
China reported a sharp rise in the number of people infected with a new coronavirus over the weekend, including 136 more cases in Wuhan city.
The outbreak spread across China, as authorities in Shenzhen in southern China reported one case, and Chinese state media said Beijing had reported two cases.

South Korea confirmed its first case - a 35-year-old woman arriving at Seoul’s Incheon airport tested positive for the virus. She had been in Wuhan the week prior.

The total number of confirmed cases reached 205, including three deaths and four confirmed cases outside China.

Details were not revealed about the third death.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lines growing in China for face masks - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7911781/People-China-queue-buy-face-masks-amid-fears-outbreak-deadly-virus.html

Medics in China screening passengers - https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/01/20/watch-china-medics-reportedly-scanning-plane-passengers-for-wuhan-virus/

Airlines are stocking planes with hazmat suites - https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/hazmat-suits-deployed-on-planes-as-security-tightens-over-virus

suspected cases in Australia and Philippines - https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/philippines-australia-probe-suspected-cases-of-wuhan-virus

Chinese officials urge people not to travel in and out of city at center of virus outbreak - https://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/Chinese-officials-urge-people-not-to-travel-in-14991226.php
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on January 22, 2020, 01:12:06 PM
China reported a sharp rise in the number of people infected with a new coronavirus over the weekend

One of the problems we have during a disease outbreak: when there's a sharp rise in reports, does that mean there was a sharp rise in cases of the disease, or does it mean there were a whole lot mroe people tested (and therefore a whole lot more cases discovered)?  We don't know.

Also, we don't know how many people are infected with the same virus, but are only experiencing mild symptoms and don't bother going to a doctor.  This can also distort our perception of the death rate (if it's only the seriously-ill who get tested).
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 22, 2020, 01:34:11 PM
China is locking down the city of Wuhan and preventing any travel out of the city.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on January 22, 2020, 02:29:46 PM
Wiley press release, 1/22/20: Researchers Trace Coronavirus Outbreak in China to Snakes (https://newsroom.wiley.com/press-release/coronavirus/researchers-trace-coronavirus-outbreak-china-snakes)

Quote
...patients who became infected with the virus—which is a type of virus called a coronavirus and was named 2019-nCoV by the World Health Organization—were exposed to wildlife animals at a wholesale market, where seafood, poultry, snake, bats, and farm animals were sold.

By conducting a detailed genetic analysis of the virus and comparing it with available genetic information on different viruses from various geographic locations and host species, the investigators concluded that the 2019-nCoV appears to be a virus that formed from a combination of a coronavirus found in bats and another coronavirus of unknown origin. ...

Finally, the team uncovered evidence that the 2019-nCoV likely resided in snakes before being transmitted to humans. Recombination within the viral receptor-binding protein may have allowed for cross-species transmission from snake to humans. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 22, 2020, 07:41:51 PM
Too many people, too many animals, all too close together. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 23, 2020, 05:04:58 AM
Two nearby cities have been locked down by China in an attempt to slow the spread of this novel coronavirus, just as New Years holiday travel kicks off.  Restricting the movement of 20 million people is difficult to achieve and often counterproductive in pandemics. But China is high tech surveillance state and might have more success. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 23, 2020, 11:35:26 AM
WaPo:  Chinese cities cancel New Year celebrations, travel ban widens in effort to stop coronavirus outbreak (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/coronavirus-china-wuhan-latest/2020/01/23/2dc947a8-3d45-11ea-afe2-090eb37b60b1_story.html)

Quote
Major Chinese cities, including Beijing and virus-hit Wuhan, banned all large gatherings over the coming Lunar New Year festival, the most important holiday on the Chinese calendar, in an expanding effort contain the rapidly spreading outbreak.

The announcement Thursday came as authorities expanded travel restrictions imposed on Wuhan to surrounding municipalities, shutting down travel networks and attempting to quarantine about 25 million people — more than the population of Florida.

Quote
The extreme measures were accompanied by other indications that Communist Party authorities were struggling to control the outbreak, notably the aggressive censorship of any criticism or skepticism on social media.

But some outspoken doctors warned that the controls would not be enough to stop the spread of the pneumonia-like virus, which has now killed 17 people in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province.

“A bigger outbreak is certain,” said Guan Yi, a virologist who helped identify severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003. He estimated — “conservatively,” he said — that this outbreak could be 10 times bigger than the SARS epidemic because that virus was transmitted by only a few “super spreaders” in a more defined part of the country.

“We have passed through the ‘golden period’ for prevention and control,” he told Caixin magazine from self-imposed quarantine after visiting Wuhan. “What’s more, we’ve got the holiday traffic rush and a dereliction of duty from certain officials.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on January 23, 2020, 03:23:26 PM
Another US case: https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/Brazos-County-health-officials-investigating-suspected-case-of-coronavirus-567236761.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on January 23, 2020, 04:37:56 PM

Coronavirus patent I think was approved 2 years ago

https://patents.justia.com/patent/10130701
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on January 23, 2020, 05:37:42 PM
Coronavirus patent I think was approved 2 years ago

https://patents.justia.com/patent/10130701

It's for making a vaccine for a specific coronavirus that infects birds, so probably not directly useful with the current China outbreak, but the technique might be worth trying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on January 23, 2020, 07:32:27 PM
Coronavirus patent I think was approved 2 years ago

https://patents.justia.com/patent/10130701

Ah, you found this on InfoWars, didn't you?  "Is Coronavirus A Manmade Depopulation Weapon?"

Did you see this sentence in the patent?

Quote
Coronaviruses are believed to cause a significant percentage of all common colds in human adults.

Look here:

ViPR (Virus Pathogen Resource): Coronaviridae Data Summary (https://www.viprbrc.org/brc/dataSummary.spg?decorator=corona)

There are 1039 identified species of Coronavirus (so far), broken down further into 26,966 strains.

Here's a summary, from the patent you linked:

Quote
Coronaviruses are divided into four groups, as shown below:

        Alpha
            Canine coronavirus (CCoV)
            Feline coronavirus (FeCoV)
            Human coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E)
            Porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDV)
            Transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV)
            Human Coronavirus NL63 (NL or New Haven)
        Beta
            Bovine coronavirus (BCoV)
            Canine respiratory coronavirus (CRCoV)—Common in SE Asia and Micronesia
            Human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43)
            Mouse hepatitis virus (MHV)
            Porcine haemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus (HEV)
            Rat coronavirus (Roy). Rat Coronavirus is quite prevalent in Eastern Australia where, as of March/April 2008, it has been found among native and feral rodent colonies.
            (No common name as of yet) (HCoV-HKU1)
            Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)
            Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)
        Gamma
            Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV)
            Turkey coronavirus (Bluecomb disease virus)
            Pheasant coronavirus
            Guinea fowl coronavirus
        Delta
            Bulbul coronavirus (BuCoV)
            Thrush coronavirus (ThCoV)
            Munia coronavirus (MuCoV)
            Porcine coronavirus (PorCov) HKU15

The patent is concerned with avian Infectious Bronchitis Virus (IBV), which is in the Gamma group.

The new Chinese virus, 2019-nCoV, is in the Beta group, so it is not closely related to IBV.

Therefore, this patent has nothing whatsoever to do with any alleged manmade source of 2019-nCoV.  The actual source of the virus has already been traced to animal sources, the infected people were exposed to those animal sources, so there is no reason to invent a "depopulation weapon" conspiracy to explain it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 24, 2020, 05:00:55 AM
Apparently there are 35 million Chinese subject to travel restrictions. And hospitals in those zones are running out of supplies and staff and full of freaked out patients with fevers.

There’s a possible second US case with recent travel from Wuhan being worked up in Texas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 24, 2020, 05:17:26 AM
And 10 possibles are isolated in California awaiting lab confirmation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on January 24, 2020, 09:23:44 AM
May be time to stock up on masks for future use?
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on January 24, 2020, 10:25:46 AM
@Freelancer: Did you see anything on the projected death rate of this virus? From what I read, it is mutating, so...
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on January 24, 2020, 10:27:45 AM
@Freelancer: Did you see anything on the projected death rate of this virus? From what I read, it is mutating, so...
I read somewhere 65 million.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on January 24, 2020, 11:15:05 AM
Counterperspective being retweeted by many doctors today.

https://nypost.com/2020/01/23/dont-buy-the-media-hype-over-the-new-china-virus/ (https://nypost.com/2020/01/23/dont-buy-the-media-hype-over-the-new-china-virus/)
Don’t buy the media hype over the new China virus

What we can say for sure is that Wuhan will be a lot worse in China, simply because health care there is vastly inferior. It appears that, like flu, Wuhan usually kills through ­often treatable secondary infections. Well, treatable in the West. You’d be surprised at how many potentially deadly diseases ­(malaria, TB) Americans get that wreak havoc in much of the world but kill essentially none of us.

It also appears those most likely to die of Wuhan-virus deaths fit the same profile as flu fatalities: people over 65, those with compromised immune systems and those with serious pre-existing conditions. Two of the 17 Wuhan dead were 89-year-olds with pre-existing conditions; the youngest was 48 and suffering from diabetes and a stroke.

Contagiousness is highly important, of course. But so far, there is no evidence that Wuhan, first ­reported more than three weeks ago, is more contagious than ­influenza or spreads differently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on January 24, 2020, 11:33:59 AM
I read somewhere 65 million.
Coronavirus Pandemic Simulation Run 3 Months Ago Predicts 65 Million People Could Die (http://Coronavirus Pandemic Simulation Run 3 Months Ago Predicts 65 Million People Could Die)
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/coronavirus-pandemic-simulation-run-3-months-ago-predicts-65-million-people-could-die
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on January 24, 2020, 01:39:12 PM
And 10 possibles are isolated in California awaiting lab confirmation.

Do you know what part of California ?  ( I have an offspring who is doing graduate studies at a UC )
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 24, 2020, 02:13:43 PM
@Freelancer: Did you see anything on the projected death rate of this virus? From what I read, it is mutating, so...

It's a novel virus that we're still obtaining data on so the mortality and particulars on human to human transmission are not clear.  The closest comparisons appear to be SARS and MERS.

Here's the CDC summary:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html)

Quote
When person-to-person spread has occurred with MERS and SARS, it is thought to have happened via respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes, similar to how influenza and other respiratory pathogens spread. Spread of MERS and SARS between people has generally occurred between close contacts. Past MERS and SARS outbreaks have been complex, requiring comprehensive public health responses.

Early on, many of the patients in the outbreak in Wuhan, China reportedly had some link to a large seafood and animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread. However, a growing number of patients reportedly have not had exposure to animal markets, suggesting person-to-person spread is occurring. At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people.

Both MERS and SARS have been known to cause severe illness in people. The situation with regard to 2019-nCoV is still unclear. While severe illness, including illness resulting in a number of deaths has been reported in China, other patients have had milder illness and been discharged.

There are ongoing investigations to learn more. This is a rapidly evolving situation and information will be updated as it becomes available.

Quote
While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.


These are the CDC recommendations for healthcare providers caring for suspected cases (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/infection-control.html), which is more than sufficient for the public at this point:

Quote
Although the transmission dynamics have yet to be determined, CDC currently recommends a cautious approach to patients under investigation for 2019 Novel Coronavirus Such patients should be asked to wear a surgical mask as soon as they are identified and be evaluated in a private room with the door closed, ideally an airborne infection isolation room if available. Healthcare personnel entering the room should use standard precautions, contact precautions, airborne precautions, and use eye protection (e.g., goggles or a face shield). Immediately notify your healthcare facility’s infection control personnel and local health department.




Do you know what part of California ?  ( I have an offspring who is doing graduate studies at a UC )

My best guess is these individuals were identified through the mandatory airport screening at LAX or SFO of passengers arriving from China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on January 24, 2020, 05:03:52 PM
Ah, you found this on InfoWars, didn't you?  "Is Coronavirus A Manmade Depopulation Weapon?"

Did you see this sentence in the patent?

Look here:

ViPR (Virus Pathogen Resource): Coronaviridae Data Summary (https://www.viprbrc.org/brc/dataSummary.spg?decorator=corona)

There are 1039 identified species of Coronavirus (so far), broken down further into 26,966 strains.

Here's a summary, from the patent you linked:

The patent is concerned with avian Infectious Bronchitis Virus (IBV), which is in the Gamma group.

The new Chinese virus, 2019-nCoV, is in the Beta group, so it is not closely related to IBV.

Therefore, this patent has nothing whatsoever to do with any alleged manmade source of 2019-nCoV.  The actual source of the virus has already been traced to animal sources, the infected people were exposed to those animal sources, so there is no reason to invent a "depopulation weapon" conspiracy to explain it.

It won’t matter if their patent matches the virus or not. It won’t matter if it’s effective or safe. If the threat of pandemic seems slightly possible they will suddenly push for quarantines and mandatory vaccinations. It will be criminal to question it. That’s what they would like to do. Our state started talking quarantines back when there was a flu in Mexico a number of years ago and people where upset about that
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: fritz_monroe on January 24, 2020, 05:47:04 PM
Adding a little levity to a serious subject.

Heard on a podcast yesterday someone referred to it as the Kung Flu. 

I have a feeling that there's quite a bit of media hype going on with this virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on January 24, 2020, 05:48:18 PM



My best guess is these individuals were identified through the mandatory airport screening at LAX or SFO of passengers arriving from China.

The screening only pulls out those already showing a temperature.  Ones not showing a symptom yet will be back on campus. But, what else can you do ?  Hopefully if they feel sick, they will stay out of public transport and get medical attention and not go to class. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 24, 2020, 06:12:58 PM
But, what else can you do ? 

Not much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on January 24, 2020, 06:22:14 PM

It seems like topping off the propane tanks, checking dried food inventory, getting some extra chain saw fuel, colloidal silver, or other supplies is something to think about or keep an eye on the situation.

If there is any possibility of quarantines then things could go bad and traveling or going out in some areas could be limited and grocery shelves could get bought out as well
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on January 24, 2020, 07:53:48 PM
Empty malls, shopping centers, airports would mean a major global economic disaster.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 25, 2020, 07:43:50 AM
China has 50 million people on lockdown and Hong Kong is closing schools for three weeks. Healthcare workers are wearing diapers so they don’t risk tearing their protective gear taking them on and off because supplies are running low in overcrowded hospitals. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on January 25, 2020, 08:23:18 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-researcher-predicts-over-250000-people-china-will-have-coronavirus-ten-days

Don't panic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on January 25, 2020, 08:41:01 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-researcher-predicts-over-250000-people-china-will-have-coronavirus-ten-days

Don't panic.

I clicked and....

You are not authorized to access this page.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on January 25, 2020, 09:08:42 AM
I clicked and....

You are not authorized to access this page.
That's interesting, it is gone! I wonder what that is all about, try this: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/56-million-chinese-lockdown-virus-spreads-australia-malaysia (https://www.zerohedge.com/political/56-million-chinese-lockdown-virus-spreads-australia-malaysia)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on January 25, 2020, 09:15:46 AM
That opened up.  ;)
My first thought on the other was that it was a subscription page, but maybe not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on January 25, 2020, 09:59:46 AM
Just a reminder that while it is always good to check your preps to ensure that practical bases are covered, there is no need to panic. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/coronavirus-dont-panic-least-not-yet/amp/ (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/coronavirus-dont-panic-least-not-yet/amp/)
Is coronavirus really the next 'Big One'? How worried we should be about the outbreak

But is this so-called “Wuhan flu” really the oft-predicted “Big One” – the start of a pandemic like the 1918-19 Spanish flu? Is that horseman on the horizon an outrider for the coming Apocalypse, or merely a reminder of pandemics past?

The fact is, no one knows whether the new coronavirus, which was first detected six weeks ago in Wuhan will prove as contagious as the Spanish flu, much less SARS, a related coronavirus which, in 2002 and 2003, sparked a major scare and the meltdown of Asian stock markets.

The good news, at present, is that the Wuhan virus doesn’t appear to be as catchy as SARS. And while it could become as virulent as Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), another type of coronavirus, so far that doesn’t appear to have happened. Indeed, reports coming out of China suggest that the virus is relatively stable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on January 25, 2020, 10:07:21 AM

We just went through our medical stash this week.
Had added some items from our amazon subscribe&save. So with some added hospital grade masks coming, I think we're good.

I noticed yesterday that several of the mask selections on amazon were out of stock.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 25, 2020, 12:06:52 PM
BBC:  Coronavirus: How can China build a hospital so quickly? (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51245156?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cyz0z8w0ydwt/coronavirus-outbreak&link_location=live-reporting-story)

(https://i2.wp.com/metro.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/PRC_125090054.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&zoom=1&resize=480%2C252&ssl=1)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on January 25, 2020, 12:11:25 PM
Not much.

Well, quarantine upon entry for 5 days -- but I guess we are not there -- yet
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 25, 2020, 12:31:52 PM
For those of us already here the risks are low to begin with, but it doesn't hurt to take the same precautions for cold and flu season.  I'd probably stay away from any Chinese New Year celebrations out here on the left coast, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on January 25, 2020, 01:30:37 PM
For those of us already here the risks are low to begin with, but it doesn't hurt to take the same precautions for cold and flu season.  I'd probably stay away from any Chinese New Year celebrations out here on the left coast, though.

Sage advise. There are some nasty flu pockets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on January 25, 2020, 02:39:07 PM
From Zerohedge January 25:
Summary

    1497 Cases Worldwide; 42 Deaths: 3% official mortality rate (SARS was 11%)
    18 Chinese cities - 56 million people - quarantined
    President Xi said China faces a 'grave situation' as the spread is 'accelerating'
    US and Russia planning evacuation of citizens from Wuhan
    Australia and Malaysia join the list of global nations with CoV cases, in addition to France, Pakistan, Singapore, the US and Nepal
    Chinese President Xi Jinping empowered local governments and said teams from Beijing will be sent to severely impacted areas to strengthen front-line prevention and containment
    The US and France chartered planes to evacuate diplomats and nationals in containment zones
    The director of the CDC says she expects cases of human-to-human transmission in the US
    China banned all domestic tour groups immediately and overseas group tours from Jan 27
    Starbucks and China said they were closing some stores in China
    Wuhan is building a second emergency hospital, this one with 1300 beds
    3 doctors in Beijing who visited Wuhan are confirmed to have the virus

Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on January 25, 2020, 04:25:42 PM
Balanced perspective.

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/experts-say-flu-is-bigger-threat-to-middle-tennesseans-than-coronavirus (https://www.newschannel5.com/news/experts-say-flu-is-bigger-threat-to-middle-tennesseans-than-coronavirus)
Experts say flu is bigger threat to Middle Tennesseans than Coronavirus
Tenn. Tech student tests negative for the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Gamer on January 25, 2020, 10:45:37 PM
If anybody fancies some weekend viewing, this opening episode of Survivors (1975) gives a step-by-step account of what happens after a butterfingered Chinese lab worker drops a flask of germs..

https://youtu.be/zAyjkaFYnzE
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 26, 2020, 12:32:10 AM
U.S. Sets Evacuation Plan From Coronavirus-Infected Wuhan  (https://www.wsj.com/articles/state-department-confirms-evacuation-flight-from-wuhan-11580012055)

Quote
In an email to U.S. citizens in China, the State Department said a flight would leave Wuhan on Tuesday and fly to San Francisco. It invited U.S. citizens with a valid passport to contact the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. Private citizens are expected to later repay the travel costs, the notice said.

“This capacity is extremely limited and if there is insufficient ability to transport everyone who expresses interest, priority will be given to individuals at greater risk from coronavirus,” the notice said.

It said the flight was tied to State Department arrangements to relocate its personnel from the U.S. consulate in Wuhan, which a person familiar with the matter said will be temporarily closed.


Probably not a bad idea. 

The chaos that comes from being locked down with 50 million people could wind up being a lot more dangerous than the disease.  Quarantine as an effective public health measure has a spotty record, at best, and usually causes more problems than it solves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on January 26, 2020, 08:06:36 AM
I noticed yesterday that several of the mask selections on amazon were out of stock.
We hit the stores yesterday and everywhere we went it was mobbed. Dollar Store had 3 peghhole hooks filled with ten-pack of face masks for $1.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on January 26, 2020, 08:38:15 AM
We hit the stores yesterday and everywhere we went it was mobbed. Dollar Store had 3 peghhole hooks filled with ten-pack of face masks for $1.

Possibly the supplies could dry up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 26, 2020, 02:31:38 PM
Two confirmed cases hospitalized in California, LA and OC, both with travel to Wuhan. 

Wuhan is expecting their confirmed cases to go from 2000 to 3000 overnight. A US university epidemiological study projects actual infections (lab confirmed + those not in the medical system) approaching 200,000 in China a week from now.

Things are really going to suck for those under siege in Wuhan. Depending on how long China allows us a glimpse into the chaos, we’ll get to see what life and death looks like in a modern plague city.

And they’re building a third pop-up hospital.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on January 26, 2020, 02:50:45 PM
The Chinese must have some secret fast-drying concrete/paint and really fast electricians, construction workers to get a hospital up in a week. They must've had a regiment of doctors and nurses looking for work to staff it. I imagine also they had warehouses filled with hospital beds and equipment and drugs to stock these new hospitals.

I see that my cynicism detector needle is buried so I better quit.

What's really going on here? Are they trying to induce global panic to induce an economic meltdown?
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on January 26, 2020, 02:56:49 PM
Top of my haid, I'd say lots of calcium added to the concrete for it to set up fast.

And the building, I think they do a lot of modular setups like Japan does. Set a pre-made building down and anchor it, set another and it has electrical and water that plugs into the first.....etc.....
Japan does a lot of multi story apartments that way. I would imagine China does also.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on January 26, 2020, 03:00:17 PM
Wuhan is expecting their confirmed cases to go from 2000 to 3000 overnight. A US university epidemiological study projects actual infections (lab confirmed + those not in the medical system) approaching 200,000 in China a week from now.

Do we trust Chinese numbers? I ask because in economics we really don't. I often struggle with what to think.

Things are really going to suck for those under siege in Wuhan. Depending on how long China allows us a glimpse into the chaos, we’ll get to see what life and death looks like in a modern plague city.

I heard an unconfirmed 3rd hand rumor that OTC fever reducers are a hot commodity in Asia right now. Being found to have a fever could be very bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on January 26, 2020, 03:34:51 PM
Do we trust Chinese numbers? I ask because in economics we really don't. I often struggle with what to think.

This.  I have heard seen videos of seemingly-healthy people just toppling over on the streets (right next to geared-up health workers), of uncontrollable tremors on a gurney - neither of which seem very realistic to me.  They claim to be deleting "fake videos" but with the amount of control they have over their society - social credits, etc. - I don't trust their judgement on "fake."

I don't trust anything China has said publicly, and have not for years.*  I am suspicious about anything they have said re: this virus.
The Israelis seem to think that Wuhan is the base of a bio-weapons lab.... add that to the mix of crazy with this event
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/24/virus-hit-wuhan-has-two-laboratories-linked-chines/


* I think it comes down to this with Chinese culture - any culture that willingly kills babies because they are girls, and therefore worthless in a family, cannot have a healthy society.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 26, 2020, 03:35:17 PM
I don’t trust the Chinese. Period.

But they do seem to be making a better effort at transparency this time than they’ve ever managed before.  They gave the world the genetic sequence right off the bat. That’s a step in the right direction.


I wouldn’t doubt there’s all kinds of shenanigans going on to mask fevers and respiratory symptoms in an effort to slip past controls.  Desperation does that. And quarantine further compounds that desperation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on January 26, 2020, 04:27:53 PM

But they do seem to be making a better effort at transparency this time than they’ve ever managed before.
That is what makes me suspicious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 26, 2020, 04:41:56 PM
GIS database of confirmed infections compiled by Johns Hopkins:  https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) 

It doesn't go beyond state-level precision, so the US map shows all of California's cases near Fresno (the middle of the state), which doesn't have any cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on January 26, 2020, 05:01:28 PM
But they do seem to be making a better effort at transparency this time than they’ve ever managed before.

That is what makes me suspicious.

yes.  this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 26, 2020, 05:37:49 PM
It's not just China, there's been a global shift in cooperation this time around.

Scientists are unraveling the Chinese coronavirus with unprecedented speed and openness (https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/01/24/scientists-are-unraveling-chinese-coronavirus-with-unprecedented-speed-openness/)

Quote
The genome was posted on a Friday night on an open-access repository for genetic information. By Saturday morning, Andrew Mesecar, a professor of cancer structural biology at Purdue University, had redirected his laboratory to start analyzing the DNA sequence, which bore a striking resemblance to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the 2002 viral outbreak that sickened more than 8,000 people and killed nearly 800. Scientists at the National Institutes of Health’s Rocky Mountain Laboratories in Montana asked a company to turn the information from a string of letters on a computer screen into actual DNA they could study in lab dishes.

At unprecedented speed, scientists are starting experiments, sharing data and revealing the secrets of the pathogen — a race that is made possible by new scientific tools and cultural norms in the face of a public health emergency.

“The pace is unmatched,” said Karla Satchell, a professor of microbiology-immunology at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. “This is really new. Lots of people [in science] still try to hide what they’re doing, don’t want to talk about what they’re doing, and everybody out there is like: This is the case where we don’t worry about egos, we don’t worry about who’s first, we just care about solving the problem. The information flow has been really fast.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 26, 2020, 09:18:16 PM
Emerging evidence hints at possibility of virus transmission from persons who don't exhibit any fever or other clinical symptoms. 


Lancet:  A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster (https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620301549.pdf)

Quote
In summary, an outbreak of novel coronavirus is ongoing at Wuhan in the winter of 2019–20.  Similar to the 2003 SARS outbreak in Guangzhou, Wuhan is also a rapidly flourishing capital city of the Hubei province and the traffic hub of central China. Moreover, both outbreaks were initially connected to wet markets where game animals and meat were sold. In the case of SARS, person-to-person transmission was efficient and super-spreading events had led to major outbreaks in hotels and hospitals. Learning from the SARS outbreak, which started as animal-to-human transmission during the first phase of the epidemic, all game meat trades should be optimally regulated to terminate this portal of transmission. But as shown in this study, it is still crucial to  isolate patients and trace and quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible (as  shown in one of our patients), educate the public on both food and personal hygiene, and alert health-care workers on compliance to infection control to prevent super-spreading events.  Unlike the 2003 SARS outbreak, the improved surveillance network and laboratory capability of China was able to recognize this outbreak within a few weeks and announced the virus genome sequences that would allow the development of rapid diagnostic tests and efficient epidemiological control. Our study showed that person-to-person transmission in family homes or hospital, and intercity spread of this novel coronavirus are possible, and therefore vigilant control measures are warranted at this early stage of the epidemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on January 26, 2020, 09:23:46 PM
Emerging evidence hints at possibility of virus transmission from persons who don't exhibit any fever or other clinical symptoms.

Okay, I guess that's bad news and good news.  Bad because it'll spread easier.  Good because maybe lots of infected people have no symptoms or mild symptoms, which means the death rate is lower than it currently appears.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 26, 2020, 09:26:04 PM
Similar to influenza.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on January 27, 2020, 07:09:04 AM
The global markets are getting the flu: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-stocks-crash-coronavirus-pandemic-infects-3000-china-yuan-plummet (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-stocks-crash-coronavirus-pandemic-infects-3000-china-yuan-plummet)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 27, 2020, 09:08:16 AM
Mayor of Wuhan is offering to resign, hints that central government prevented him from releasing information on the outbreak earlier, and admitted that 5 million people from his city are already outside of the quarantine zone. 

A scientific assessment of the spread of the disease, assuming an optimistic 90 percent quarantine, still predicted more than 59,000 infections and 1,500 deaths — twice the toll of the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on January 27, 2020, 09:53:42 AM
Interesting aside is anecdotal reports that video game use and sales are through the roof as parents look for ways to keep quarantined children morale up.  Having some games on hand can definitely help with mental health in trying times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: DrJohn on January 27, 2020, 11:25:12 AM
Okay, I guess that's bad news and good news.  Bad because it'll spread easier.  Good because maybe lots of infected people have no symptoms or mild symptoms, which means the death rate is lower than it currently appears.

I think the former not the latter.  If true, the virus can spread before an infected person becomes symptomatic, I don't think it has anything to do with milder symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 27, 2020, 11:57:31 PM
The US evacuation plane may be coming to my neck of the woods, where they could remain isolated at the airport for 2 weeks.  My wife’s medical center was notified to prepare for treating coronavirus patients.

Wuhan-based Americans will be flown into Ontario International, and the airport has issued a statement: "Ontario International is an official repatriation center for the West Coast and has conducted extensive training in managing situations such as this. In the event that the returning passengers do arrive at ONT, preparations are being made to ensure that proper health, safety and security procedures are followed."
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 28, 2020, 04:34:12 AM
Russia and Hong Kong are severely limiting their border traffic with China. The US is now checking China arrivals from China at 20 airports.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: DrJohn on January 28, 2020, 07:44:56 AM
North Korea has closed its border with China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on January 28, 2020, 09:53:43 AM
The US evacuation plane may be coming to my neck of the woods, where they could remain isolated at the airport for 2 weeks.  My wife’s medical center was notified to prepare for treating coronavirus patients.

isn't that somehow counter-intuitive? Unless screening all passengers before boarding, it is putting 200 healthy ones along with a sick one in an incubation chamber....


Now, this video seems legit.
talks about the Chinese New Year's craze that happened in the same time, and the lousy hygiene and sanitation in China, especially the street markets
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM
the short version
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLp8CHeKQkI

And here is a GORY video of one of these markets. Beware!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Zwf_zC_RZs
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on January 28, 2020, 10:28:20 AM
The US is now checking China arrivals from China at 20 airports.

Even bigger is that US they put a level 3 warning for all of China.  Most companies have policies against employees traveling to places under level 3+.  So effectively business travel is stopped.  I am supposed to be there for a conference in early May so I hope this is well contained before then
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 28, 2020, 11:16:10 AM
I’m sure they’ll be screened as much as possible before boarding the plane, probably masks and bottles of hand sanitizer for everyone, too.  But, yeah, you have to the weigh the risks of catching the disease in the process of trying to escape the hot zone.  But the uncertainty is high with the epidemiology of this novel infection very much being derived on the fly.

Dr Fauci was quoted yesterday as horrified to hear in the media that non-symptomatic spread appears possible before the Chinese shared that with the world’s public health authorities. It makes a significant difference in screening and isolating suspected infections when you can’t rely on scanning foreheads for temperature.  He admitted they were more transparent than SARS, but they still are leaving a lot to be desired.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on January 28, 2020, 11:47:47 AM
I think that many are preparing for this even among the unprepared... it is already impossible to get facemasks on Amazon or many other medical supply websites (estimated delivery dates in March - when a date is even given). There are a few YT vids that are comparing this to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. My son pointed me to this one (by Dr. Martenson -- no idea is he is reputable or not, but getting a lot of hits): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTWZPGzvJIo
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on January 28, 2020, 11:56:29 AM
I think that many are preparing for this even among the unprepared... it is already impossible to get facemasks on Amazon or many other medical supply websites (estimated delivery dates in March - when a date is even given). There are a few YT vids that are comparing this to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. My son pointed me to this one (by Dr. Martenson -- no idea is he is reputable or not, but getting a lot of hits): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTWZPGzvJIo

 There are claims that some long term food suppliers are getting tons of orders. I just went to trader joes and bought 5 frozen pizzas, 4 or 5 boxes of cold cereral, all kinds of nuts, 6 boxes of mac n cheese and may go back again in a few days or even tomorrow depending on the news I am hearing. Today I just spent $142 on mostly non perishable dried foods. I have some stored food from 10+ years ago but I would not want to dig into that first thing without other options on top of it. Mostly I have rice, beans, peas, freeze dried, stuff from 10 years ago vacuum sealed etc. I've never checked it.

I just withdrew $300 from the bank to bolster cash reserves and will probably take out more later this week

 The indicators for this flu event seem much different than some of a few years ago and is by far the worst I have seen. If at some point people panic, supplies will dry up fast.

Alex Jones claims there is a reverse thing going on. When there is a minor flu event like in Mexico years ago then they sound alarm bells but when there is a major threat like this one, then they downplay it.

 How long can a flu event last I wonder ? They say there is a flu season but this flu seems very non typical. It's also because it is very contagious and it has a high fatality rate. Those two in combination are supposedly very rare as it's either one or the other but not both


https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/2-people-from-nh-being-monitored-for-coronavirus/2068207/

Two people from New Hampshire who recently traveled to Wuhan, China, are being monitored for the new coronavirus, health officials announced Monday.

The two individuals had sought treatment after developing respiratory symptoms and are recovering, according to the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services.

The individuals will remain in isolation until lab results sent to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention come back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on January 28, 2020, 12:55:55 PM
People really panic. There's still a lot we don't know and let's be honest: The CDC has done a great job on this one with pretty darn near perfect containment and screening. Once we know what to prepare for I'm willing to bet it's normal flu stuff. Wash hands, don't touch face, plenty of fluids, report early, etc. I hate to say it but for all these outbreaks the best thing is buying gear afterward on the used market.

1918 almost can't be repeated. The confluence of events surrounding shipping men globally at the end of the war and a lack of protocol meant the globe just couldn't handle the disease. And it was an era where many kids shared a room and often kids shared a bed. Freelancer is right: Close proximity of large numbers of people and animals just isn't safe when it comes to pestilence. That's something every doctor, biologist, and statistician would agree on.

If you've got the basics down you've done all you can. Have a cup of tea and relax.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on January 28, 2020, 01:00:18 PM
Alex Jones claims there is a reverse thing going on. When there is a minor flu event like in Mexico years ago then they sound alarm bells but when there is a major threat like this one, then they downplay it.

How can this be considered downplaying?  Governments and agencies and researchers are falling all over themselves to Do Something, and you can't look at any news source without seeing half a dozen new stories about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on January 28, 2020, 02:02:11 PM
Who is actually dying from this? Is it older, malnutritioned peasants living in squalor; or younger well-fed healthy ones?
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on January 28, 2020, 02:49:45 PM
I think that many are preparing for this even among the unprepared... it is already impossible to get facemasks on Amazon or many other medical supply websites (estimated delivery dates in March - when a date is even given). There are a few YT vids that are comparing this to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. My son pointed me to this one (by Dr. Martenson -- no idea is he is reputable or not, but getting a lot of hits): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTWZPGzvJIo

.

he is legit
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on January 28, 2020, 03:41:07 PM
Food supplies are going to go bust .. I just ordered $100 worth of black bean mix and black bean soup from my patriot supply

https://nationalfile.com/exclusive-emergency-food-supply-company-says-coronavirus-sparks-unprecedented-orders-may-disrupt-supply/

Emergency Food Supply Company Says Coronavirus Sparks Unprecedented Orders, May Disrupt Supply
The president of My Patriot Supply told National File that Coronavirus sparked the industry's most orders in history.

Possibly underscoring the seriousness of the outbreak of Coronavirus that is quickly spreading through China, Asia, and beginning to trickle into Western countries, My Patriot Supply told National File that they are seeing the most interest in the company’s history, and that other emergency food supply companies are running out of inventory.
Keith Bansemer, President of My Patriot Supply, told National File that customers are quickly buying their inventory in the largest numbers in the country’s decade long history due to fears of Coronavirus disrupting the global food supply, or causing quarantines in the United States.

“There’s a lot of food storage being sold right now, and we’ve got three large warehouses,” said Bansemer. We’ve created the largest distribution structure to be able to deliver in two days, and since this news broke every day is larger than the day before. Today will be no exception, it’s a snowball effect.”

“We’re still shipping in two days, but we’re being cleared out quickly.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 28, 2020, 04:31:07 PM
Found this on the plague plane and FEMA camp possibly coming to an airport near me:  Ontario Airport is a designated Repatriation Center and prepared for Wuhan, China flight (https://www.vvng.com/ontario-airport-is-a-designated-repatriation-center-and-prepared-for-wuhan-china-flight/)

Quote
The U.S. government is chartering the flight carrying up to 240 American Citizens, including nine children that will first arrive in Alaska, where occupants will be examined by personnel from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“No occupants who present symptoms of illness will be allowed to proceed into the continental United States. Upon arrival in the continental U.S., possibly ONT, aircraft occupants will again be screened by CDC personnel and monitored for up to two weeks,” stated a county of San Bernardino news release.

Quote
The Ontario Airport will proceed under normal operations during this period. A reception area and temporary living quarters will be established on the airport away from the passenger terminals and other public areas. Ontario police and other public safety personnel are prepared to ensure no unauthorized persons enter or exit the area.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 28, 2020, 11:45:26 PM
The State Department is now diverting the plane to March Air Reserve Base, for "logistics" reasons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 29, 2020, 12:05:06 AM
This is best article I've seen thus far:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-we-know-about-the-wuhan-virus-11579716128?mod=hp_lead_pos3 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-we-know-about-the-wuhan-virus-11579716128?mod=hp_lead_pos3)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on January 29, 2020, 06:11:47 AM
This is best article I've seen thus far:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-we-know-about-the-wuhan-virus-11579716128?mod=hp_lead_pos3 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-we-know-about-the-wuhan-virus-11579716128?mod=hp_lead_pos3)


paywall. 

My 18-yo son is panicked over this.  I spent a good 30 minutes on a Sunday drive trying to talk him down from the ledge; just after he was playing some pandemic game on his phone  ::) (like that is going to help your fear level!)
me, I suspect this is the news' latest "panic-hysteria-watch-us-for-ratings" emergency.  We did do a run through as a family of what we have, what we need, and what we would do if things got bad enough that we would want to quarantine ourselves for safety.  But there are a lot of reasons to not panic, and I am not going to live my life in fear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 29, 2020, 08:45:07 AM
paywall. 

Sorry, I can't find it anywhere else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on January 29, 2020, 08:47:35 AM
I have a method that works for WSJ.

hit the link, go to website, and copy the article title.
Google the title. and visit the website through this link.
presto the article in full...
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on January 29, 2020, 08:51:30 AM
Sorry, I can't find it anywhere else.

no worries.  That is my bad - I cannot fault them for wanting to be paid, and it is not worth it to me to pay for an article or two a year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on January 29, 2020, 09:01:27 AM
I have a method that works for WSJ.

hit the link, go to website, and copy the article title.
Google the title. and visit the website through this link.
presto the article in full...

I'll try that.  8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: nano. on January 29, 2020, 09:03:28 AM
I have a method that works for WSJ.

hit the link, go to website, and copy the article title.
Google the title. and visit the website through this link.
presto the article in full...

hot damn - that worked good! =D
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on January 29, 2020, 09:54:43 AM
Come on, Canada!

https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/warmington-thousands-unchecked-for-coronavirus-at-pearson (https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/warmington-thousands-unchecked-for-coronavirus-at-pearson)
WARMINGTON: No medical screening for arrivals from three China flights

Just like that, more than 1,000 people on three flights from China walked into Canada without medical screening.

If the coronavirus happens to be incubating in any one of those passengers who arrived at Pearson International Airport’s Terminal 3 on Monday, they are now mingling with Canadian residents.

“I was asked when we got to the Canada Custom’s inspection point if I had been in Wuhan in the past 14 days or if I had a fever,” said Jerry, who with his wife, travelled from Shanghai. “I said no.”

That one-word answer got him through.

First stop before heading home to Oakville was a place to eat. After 14 hours in the air without a bite, they were famished.

“I didn’t eat for the whole flight,” said Jerry’s wife, Te. “I kept my mask on the whole time.”

Many passengers said they didn’t want to take a chance of exposing their mouths to the virus.
...
Passengers talked of hearing about sick people in China who perished at the hands of the coronavirus but were oblivious to reports that up to 19 in Ontario may have been exposed.

The big question: Was anybody on these flights a carrier?

All nice people. Many visiting. Many residents.

But Canada is taking a big gamble. Those coming from China reported they did not see doctors, nurses or undergo any medical screening upon their arrival at Pearson.

Their entry is, in essence, based on a wing and a prayer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on January 29, 2020, 10:44:43 AM
Come on, Canada!

https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/warmington-thousands-unchecked-for-coronavirus-at-pearson (https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/warmington-thousands-unchecked-for-coronavirus-at-pearson)
WARMINGTON: No medical screening for arrivals from three China flights

Just like that, more than 1,000 people on three flights from China walked into Canada without medical screening.

If the coronavirus happens to be incubating in any one of those passengers who arrived at Pearson International Airport’s Terminal 3 on Monday, they are now mingling with Canadian residents.

“I was asked when we got to the Canada Custom’s inspection point if I had been in Wuhan in the past 14 days or if I had a fever,” said Jerry, who with his wife, travelled from Shanghai. “I said no.”

That one-word answer got him through.

First stop before heading home to Oakville was a place to eat. After 14 hours in the air without a bite, they were famished.

“I didn’t eat for the whole flight,” said Jerry’s wife, Te. “I kept my mask on the whole time.”

Many passengers said they didn’t want to take a chance of exposing their mouths to the virus.
...
Passengers talked of hearing about sick people in China who perished at the hands of the coronavirus but were oblivious to reports that up to 19 in Ontario may have been exposed.

The big question: Was anybody on these flights a carrier?

All nice people. Many visiting. Many residents.

But Canada is taking a big gamble. Those coming from China reported they did not see doctors, nurses or undergo any medical screening upon their arrival at Pearson.

Their entry is, in essence, based on a wing and a prayer.


 I have heard that there is a ton of travel of students and others from China to the US.

I really like the bible study at a local Chinese church. I like the way the Chinese approach the bible in kind of a less dogmatic way but still from a conservative viewpoint. I am concerned however as it is a big church with lots of people and no doubt there are people there going back and forth to China, Hong Kong, Tawain etc. I would like to go back the the bible study especially in the winter but I have been having some doubts about it ..
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on January 29, 2020, 11:59:27 AM
Alex Jones was taking calls from people in WuHan China effected by the quarantine apparently. What a novel idea, no one else doing that ?

He also mentioned nano silver product and so I did a search, although no doubt anything that is not mainstream medicine would be heavily demonized. Supposedly Corona virus has some similarities with sars

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/amse/2014/371483/

 NewsEdge, “University study shows ionic silver effective against SARS; supports previous research findings on SARS virus,” in BioPortfilio by AgION Technologies, 2005.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: DDJ on January 30, 2020, 05:24:43 AM
I know this is off the medical side but another facet of this will start soon.

At work yesterday I was informed that China has extended the Chinese New Year holiday by a week.  We are starting to look at the effect that Chinese suppliers not delivering will be causing.  So the virus outbreak is moving into economical/financial impact zone.  World wide just in time is now affected.  US manufacturing will see an impact at some point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on January 30, 2020, 06:51:19 AM
Top trending video right now:

https://youtu.be/A4qwCWwC-Oo (https://youtu.be/A4qwCWwC-Oo)
Coronavirus: Doctor explains the proper way to wash your hands and put on a face mask
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: scoop on January 30, 2020, 09:31:20 AM
Meanwhile in China - No Masks

(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/01/29/10/24025666-7942159-image-m-20_1580294035469.jpg)
(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/01/29/10/24025668-7942159-image-a-21_1580294057525.jpg)
(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/01/29/11/24026416-7942159-Other_photographs_at_Vancouver_airport_show_a_woman_with_a_plast-m-4_1580296053075.jpg)
(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/01/29/10/24025664-7942159-image-m-29_1580294157239.jpg)
(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/01/29/10/24025682-7942159-image-a-27_1580294134467.jpg)


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7942159/Nervous-Chinese-travellers-pictured-wearing-face-masks-plastic-bottles.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on January 30, 2020, 09:50:07 AM
That is an old prepper trick, but not for viruses!

https://youtu.be/kkC_MjNTxdQ (https://youtu.be/kkC_MjNTxdQ)

Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 30, 2020, 11:10:02 AM
First US person to person infection reported in Chicago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: scoop on January 30, 2020, 11:12:31 AM
First US person to person infection reported in Chicago.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Illinois public health officials confirmed Thursday the nation’s first person-to-person transmission of the Coronavirus.

The new patient is the spouse of the Chicago woman who brought the infection back from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak, CDC, and Illinois health officials said during a press briefing. Health officials said the new patient, a male in his 60s, has “some underlying medical conditions” but is currently in good condition.

The first patient is doing well but remains in isolation at a local hospital, officials said. Public health officials are also monitoring 21 patients in Illinois for possible infections.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/cdc-...rus-in-us.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 30, 2020, 01:19:24 PM
WHO declared coronavirus emergency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: scoop on January 30, 2020, 01:30:17 PM
WHO declared coronavirus emergency.

WHO declares Public Health Emergency of International Concern for China Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

Supplemental Info:

A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) is a formal declaration by the World Health Organization (WHO) of "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response", formulated when a situation arises that is "serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected", which "carries implications for public health beyond the affected State's national border" and "may require immediate international action".

In order to declare a PHEIC, the WHO Director-General is required to take into account factors which include the risk to human health and international spread, as well as advice from an international committee of experts.

The declaration of a PHEIC is a HIGHLY political process which raises the levels of international support, enhanced diplomatic efforts and security, and typically shakes loose greater financial resources to support the response teams.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on January 30, 2020, 05:38:14 PM
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/coronavirus-symptoms-do-face-masks-really-protect-against-coronavirus-flu-spread-how-to-prevent-2020-01-30/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/coronavirus-symptoms-do-face-masks-really-protect-against-coronavirus-flu-spread-how-to-prevent-2020-01-30/)
Do face masks really protect against coronavirus?

At a news conference Tuesday, Heath and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said wearing a face mask is unnecessary for most people.

"In the United States, the risk to any individual American is extremely low," Azar said.

Dr. Frank Esper, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the Cleveland Clinic, said some really sick people should wear a mask.

"If they are coughing, if they are feeling like they have symptoms, we do ask them to put on mask when they are coming to our waiting room or ER or into a public space," he said. "It helps prevent the spread of infection."

Esper and other experts say washing your hands frequently is the best way to prevent the spread of illnesses like the flu. The CDC advises washing your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol if soap and water are not available.

You should also avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands, avoid contact with sick people, cover your mouth when you cough and sneeze, and disinfect objects and surfaces frequently, the CDC says.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on January 30, 2020, 06:57:09 PM
Esper and other experts say washing your hands frequently is the best way to prevent the spread of illnesses like the flu. The CDC advises washing your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol if soap and water are not available.

You should also avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands, avoid contact with sick people, cover your mouth when you cough and sneeze, and disinfect objects and surfaces frequently, the CDC says.


Heh.  I am currently at the 2-week point with flu or some other "Influenza-Like Illness" (to use CDC's term), and I know exactly how and when I caught it.  Went to Costco, pushed the shopping cart around, went to the car.  It was cold, my eyes were watering, and without thinking I wiped off the tears with the palms of my hands.

I always use hand sanitizer as soon as I get in the car after shopping.  Except not this time.  :facepalm:
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 30, 2020, 09:20:07 PM
This case report has very similar findings to those published earlier in the week from Hong Kong.


NEJM:  Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?query=featured_coronavirus)

Quote
Before the onset of symptoms, he had attended meetings with a Chinese business partner at his company near Munich on January 20 and 21. The business partner, a Shanghai resident, had visited Germany between Jan. 19 and 22. During her stay, she had been well with no signs or symptoms of infection but had become ill on her flight back to China, where she tested positive for 2019-nCoV on January 26 (index patient in Figure 1).

Quote
This case of 2019-nCoV infection was diagnosed in Germany and transmitted outside of Asia. However, it is notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient, in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific.

Quote
Despite these concerns, all four patients who were seen in Munich have had mild cases and were hospitalized primarily for public health purposes. Since hospital capacities are limited — in particular, given the concurrent peak of the influenza season in the northern hemisphere — research is needed to determine whether such patients can be treated with appropriate guidance and oversight outside the hospital.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on January 30, 2020, 10:44:55 PM
AFP, 1/30/20: Project fear: Misinformation spreads China virus panic (https://www.news24.com/World/News/project-fear-misinformation-spreads-china-virus-panic-20200130)

Quote
...Phoebe, a 40-year-old Hong Kong doctor, has been dismayed by some of the messages cropping up in her family Whatsapp group in recent days.

"I've seen information... telling people to use a hairdryer to disinfect your face and hands, or drink 60-degree hot water to keep healthy," she told AFP, asking not to be fully identified.

"I also saw a post shared in Facebook groups telling people to drink Dettol," she added, referencing a household disinfectant. ...

AFP's own fact-check teams have encountered a deluge of misinformation causing confusion and fear - including one out of Sri Lanka claiming China said 11 million people would die.

Another was a false report in Australia listing common food brands and locations in Sydney that were supposedly tainted, while multiple posts pushed the erroneous idea that saline - basic salt water - can kill the virus. ...

One video which went especially viral was a video of a woman tucking into bat soup. ...

But it emerged that the video was shot in 2016 on the Pacific island of Palau by a Chinese travel blogger - a fact that few of the media outlets which ran the footage bothered to either check or update once the reality became known. ...

On Monday, Duncan Pegg, a lawmaker for Brisbane, alerted constituents to a fake Department of Health press release warning against travel to suburbs with high concentrations of Chinese Australians. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on January 31, 2020, 06:03:29 AM
There's a social side too. Hong Kong had a day where hospital workers called in sick en masse. People have been tossing Molotov cocktails at police stations in protest and admitting you are from Wuhan might get you stabbed.

While other countries close borders (though I don't know how because these are borders out in the middle of nowhere and undefended) rumor is that Cambodia may ban masks and will not close direct travel with China.

Lots of unrest and lack of faith in the governments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 31, 2020, 11:50:21 AM
U.S. mandates quarantine for 195 evacuees who arrived this week at March Air Base.  The quarantine authority, rarely used in the United States, would restrict the travelers’ movements for 14 days from when they left Wuhan, China, because officials say they’re still uncertain about how readily the virus spreads.


From CDC's Twitter:  The CDC, under statutory authority of the Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary, has issued federal quarantine orders to all 195 United States citizens who repatriated to the U.S. on January 29, 2020. The quarantine will last 14 days from when the plane left Wuhan, China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 31, 2020, 12:07:58 PM
CDC hasn't exercised its quarantine authority since the 1960s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 31, 2020, 12:35:22 PM
CDC TeleBriefing Audio Recording:  CDC Media Telebriefing: Update on 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) (https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/a0131-cdc-telebriefing-2019-novel-coronavirus.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on January 31, 2020, 01:09:59 PM
CDC TeleBriefing Audio Recording:  CDC Media Telebriefing: Update on 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) (https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/a0131-cdc-telebriefing-2019-novel-coronavirus.html)

That may be the single most competent government briefing I've heard.  Very professional, informative, and to the point.

Just received notice from Delta that my flight was canceled. They have suspended all flights to China until April 30.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on January 31, 2020, 02:46:09 PM
That may be the single most competent government briefing I've heard.  Very professional, informative, and to the point.

Just received notice from Delta that my flight was canceled. They have suspended all flights to China until April 30.

Your flight in MAY has already been cancelled?  no hope that things will be normal by then?
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 31, 2020, 03:55:34 PM
WaPo:  To combat coronavirus, U.S. to deny entry to foreign nationals who recently visited China and quarantine returning Americans (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/01/31/eeac61b6-442b-11ea-b503-2b077c436617_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&utm_medium=email&utm_source=alert&wpisrc=al_news__alert-world--alert-national&wpmk=1)

US nationals will be quarantined for 14 days following return from China.

Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on January 31, 2020, 04:26:27 PM
Your flight in MAY has already been cancelled?  no hope that things will be normal by then?

It was April 29.  The flight has been cancelled.  Currently they are allowing for reschedules for May 1 to 31.  But the planes for early dates are already packed with all the moves.  It looks like the conference will be rescheduled for June.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on January 31, 2020, 04:33:56 PM
A 7th US infection in the Bay Area confirmed by CDC. 

Recent travel to China and self-quarantined on arrival a week ago, with mild symptoms and few contacts. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on January 31, 2020, 04:53:27 PM
This is a tough call.  Do you stay in China where you can bug in at a hotel or do you get on a filled plane full of people some of which may be ill?

https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2020/01/29/delta-coronavirus-flights-canceled.amp.html (https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2020/01/29/delta-coronavirus-flights-canceled.amp.html)
Delta suspends all U.S. to China flights

Jan. 31 Update: Delta said it will temporarily suspend all U.S. to China flights beginning Feb. 6 through April 30 "due to ongoing concerns related to the coronavirus."  The airline joined other major carriers American Airlines and United Airlines in making the announcements today.

"Between now and Feb. 5, Delta will continue to operate flights to ensure customers looking to exit China have options to do so," Delta said in a news release.

Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 01, 2020, 08:57:50 AM
Ummm...don't do this, please.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-51342278 (https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-51342278)
Man taken off American Airlines flight for wearing gas mask
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: antsyaunt on February 01, 2020, 01:04:55 PM
So...would we expect to see quarantined areas in the U.S.?  What is the likelihood?  Asking for a friend.   ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 01, 2020, 03:12:02 PM
So...would we expect to see quarantined areas in the U.S.?  What is the likelihood?  Asking for a friend.   ;)

In my opinion, the number and rate of new infections would really have to spiral out of control here in the US for quarantine of large populations within a geographical area to be considered worth the negative consequences of such an action.  With targeted quarantine of travelers from China, instituted by CDC yesterday after confirmation of asymptomatic transmission, public health authorities have the ability to focus on those most at highest risk of spreading the virus in the US without impacting the rest of us as drastically. 

It appears that Chinese authorities missed that opportunity in the critical early weeks of the epidemic due to persecuting those in the healthcare system for raising alarm of a new "SARS-like virus" infection.  This Washington Post article documents (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/01/early-missteps-state-secrecy-china-likely-allowed-coronavirus-spread-farther-faster/?utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere_trending_now&utm_medium=email&utm_source=alert&wpisrc=al_trending_now__alert-world--alert-national&wpmk=1) the arrest and detention of doctors for sharing their concerns of a new epidemic on social media conversations.  It's the first of the month so most should be able to read it without hitting a paywall.

Quote
An analysis of those early weeks — from official statements, leaked accounts from Chinese medical professionals, newly released scientific data and interviews with public health officials and infectious disease experts — reveals potential missteps by China’s overburdened public health officials.

It also underscores how a bureaucratic culture that prioritizes political stability over all else probably allowed the virus to spread farther and faster.

“It’s clear that a much stronger public health system could save China lives and money,”
said Tom Frieden, former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Medical professionals who tried to sound an alarm were seized by police. Key state media omitted mention of the outbreak for weeks. Cadres focused on maintaining stability — and praising party leader Xi Jinping — as the crisis worsened.

“China’s public health system has modernized, but China’s political system hasn’t,”
said Jude Blanchette, head of China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “If anything, there’s been a regression.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 01, 2020, 05:39:57 PM
NYT with an article similar to the WaPo one above:  As New Virus Spread, China’s Old Habits Delayed Fight (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html)

Quote
The government’s initial handling of the epidemic allowed the virus to gain a tenacious hold. At critical moments, officials chose to put secrecy and order ahead of openly confronting the growing crisis to avoid public alarm and political embarrassment.

A reconstruction of the crucial seven weeks between the appearance of the first symptoms in early December and the government’s decision to lock down the city, based on two dozen interviews with Wuhan residents, doctors and officials, on government statements and on Chinese media reports, points to decisions that delayed a concerted public health offensive.

In those weeks, the authorities silenced doctors and others for raising red flags. They played down the dangers to the public, leaving the city’s 11 million residents unaware they should protect themselves. They closed a food market where the virus was believed to have started, but told the public it was for renovations.

Their reluctance to go public, in part, played to political motivations as local officials prepared for their annual congresses in January. Even as cases climbed, officials declared repeatedly that there had likely been no more infections.

By not moving aggressively to warn the public and medical professionals, public health experts say, the Chinese government lost one of its best chances to keep the disease from becoming an epidemic.


A huge blunder by a centralized authoritarian surveillance state trying to prove itself a global powerhouse.  I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Hong Kong type political unrest from mainland Chinese over this public health disaster, especially if things become even more desperate as the central government is forced to ever more heavy handed methods to contain the outbreak.  To say nothing of the economic fallout.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: antsyaunt on February 01, 2020, 06:44:40 PM
Thanks, Freelancer.  I hope the U.S. actions weren’t too late to prevent the disease from spreading here.  Students returned to their universities for the second semester recently, and some of the students had been in China during their month-long break.  Likewise, business people from China have been traveling to the U.S. until yesterday.  Hopefully none of them were infected. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 01, 2020, 07:19:33 PM
We'll certainly have infection spread here (an 8th case was confirmed today in Boston) but I would bet on new infections rarely going above single digits per day over the next few months.  That's nowhere near the thousands per day we're seeing in Asia.  Fortunately, it's hard to get to the US from China without coming by air so the advantage we have in being able to identify potential carriers and track their contacts is huge.

As bad as this is for Asia, any one of us who hasn't been to China is much more likely to die from influenza this year.  From a risk assessment standpoint, I recommend channeling worries about this novel respiratory epidemic into preparations for seasonal (and at some point, 1918-style pandemic) flu, starting with getting the vaccine.  This kind of thing gives individuals and agencies a wake up call to test plans and make changes for when the really big one comes along.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on February 01, 2020, 08:14:42 PM
Have they named any people who have the coronavirus in the US ? Maybe they have reasons they can cite for not doing so but without any solid evidence to go on, I am not sure what to believe. Apparently the UN is working with China to come up with standards for marital law right now and people in China are being harassed by drones if they leave their homes during lockdown in wuhan so it’s a perfect martial law exercise and just maybe the UN planned the whole thing with China but I don’t know. But if the disease does not seem to have clear evidence of spreading elsewhere in a big way then I will have to wonder

Alex jones has been saying fema and the government has been trying to work with my patriot supply to buy up all their storable food. He said this actually started in November. That is very interesting that it started well before the flu story broke and makes you wonder if they knew it was coming all along. The owner of my patriot supply came onto the Alex Jones show hour 4 of January 31 and has confirmed all these details and says he refuses to sell all the food to the government and denying Americans the ability to get themselves emergency food but he said they just keep calling as if they won’t take no for an answer. I wonder maybe they could even seize all the food, imagine that ?

The owner of my patriot supply says the government wants to know every detail of their operation, where are their warehouses, how much food can they make, who are their suppliers. He doesn’t want to tell them anything but he says they keep calling
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 01, 2020, 10:45:28 PM
HIPAA regulations prevent disclosure of patients’ personal information.

Looks like Costco.com has plenty of long term storage food in stock if Alex’s guy sells out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on February 01, 2020, 11:08:05 PM

That’s interesting of course but it’s not clear what the real inventories are. I haven’t shopped at Costco or am unsure how much inventory they have. I don’t know what the quality of their stuff is and if it is popular etc.

 You always have to wonder if people may be trying to drum up business by saying the supply is running out so buy now.

This Alaska prepper Guy tho claims some suppliers of emergency long term food are selling out due to the virus scare


https://youtu.be/at03-qENcfY
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 01, 2020, 11:20:09 PM
We really need Canada to get serious.  That is biggest hole which can affect US.  So far Trudeau has been MIA and Trump had to call him to say :wtf:

Meanwhile, deaths are getting closer.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html)
Coronavirus Live Updates: Death in Philippines Is the First Outside China

As the overall death toll passed 300, health workers in Hong Kong threatened to strike if the territory’s government did not completely close the border with mainland China.

A 44-year-old man in the Philippines has died of the coronavirus, health officials said on Sunday, making him the first known death outside China. The man, a resident of Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the virus, died on Saturday after developing what officials called “severe pneumonia.”

“This is the first known death of someone with 2019-nCoV outside of China,” the World Health Organization’s office in the Philippines said in a statement, using the technical shorthand for the coronavirus.

Philippines health officials said the man had arrived in the country on Jan. 21 with a 38-year-old woman who remains under observation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 02, 2020, 07:35:37 AM
https://news.yahoo.com/china-says-wuhan-coronavirus-victims-035557851.html (https://news.yahoo.com/china-says-wuhan-coronavirus-victims-035557851.html)
China says Wuhan coronavirus victims who die should be quickly cremated without funerals as death toll rises

New trial regulations from China's National Health Commission (NHC) have banned funerals and other similar activities involving the corpses of deceased victims of the novel coronavirus.
The new regulations on the disposal of remains come as the NHC announced that the death toll had risen to 304. A total of 14,380 people have been infected.
In an earlier announcement, the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs advised people to hold quick and simple funerals and avoid large gatherings to help prevent the virus from spreading further.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: CandyGram4Mongo on February 02, 2020, 07:58:55 AM
This research team lends credence to the “made in a lab” theory.  Because 4 generic “inserts” are identical to HIV sequences (and never before seen in Corona virus strains) testing is straightforward and accurate (so the people being quarantined should be able to be tested accurately whether or not they’re symptomatic):

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf)

Here’s an interesting assessment involving Spanish Flu mortality and changes that are likely to have lessened pandemic efficacy:
 https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/01/a_note_on_coronavirus_dont_panic.html (https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/01/a_note_on_coronavirus_dont_panic.html)
Spoiler alert: antibiotics are effective against secondary infections/pneumonia, and a lot of the Spanish Flu mortality could be attributed to lethal secondary bacterial infections.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 02, 2020, 09:50:37 AM
This research team lends credence to the “made in a lab” theory.  Because 4 generic “inserts” are identical to HIV sequences (and never before seen in Corona virus strains) testing is straightforward and accurate (so the people being quarantined should be able to be tested accurately whether or not they’re symptomatic):

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf)

Discussion about this in another thread:
Re: Virus accidentally released from lab ? (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=64761.msg767198#msg767198)

The authors of the paper admit they screwed up:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v2
Quote
This paper has been withdrawn by its authors. They intend to revise it in response to comments received from the research community on their technical approach and their interpretation of the results. If you have any questions, please contact the corresponding author.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 02, 2020, 12:45:25 PM
Delta accelerated cancellations. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/01/delta-speeds-up-coronavirus-related-china-flight-suspensions.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/01/delta-speeds-up-coronavirus-related-china-flight-suspensions.html)
Delta speeds up coronavirus-related China flight suspensions

Delta Air Lines said on Saturday that it will suspend flights to and from China earlier than the carrier had previously announced as a result of new screening protocols implemented by the Trump administration in response to the new coronavirus.

The last China-bound flight departing from the U.S. will leave on Saturday, the airline said in a statement. The last return flight from China to the U.S. will depart on Sunday.

The Trump administration declared the new coronavirus a public health emergency in the United States on Friday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 02, 2020, 01:53:53 PM
It's starting to look like we're not going to avoid this turning into a pandemic (disease spread on >1 continent), with Africa squarely in the crosshairs.  No need for panic here in the US, with our resources and public health systems, but life is going to seriously suck for the poorer parts of the globe and it may rub of on us in unforeseen ways.


NYT:  Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
It is “increasingly unlikely that the virus can be contained,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who now runs Resolve to Save Lives, a nonprofit devoted to fighting epidemics.

“It is therefore likely that it will spread, as flu and other organisms do, but we still don’t know how far, wide or deadly it will be.”

Quote
But various epidemiological models estimate that the real number of cases is 100,000 or even more. While that expansion is not as rapid as that of flu or measles, it is an enormous leap beyond what virologists saw when SARS and MERS emerged.

When SARS was vanquished in July 2003 after spreading for nine months, only 8,098 cases had been confirmed. MERS has been circulating since 2012, but there have been only about 2,500 known cases.

The biggest uncertainty now, experts said, is how many people around the world will die. SARS killed about 10 percent of those who got it, and MERS now kills about one of three.

Quote
The effects of a pandemic would probably be harsher in some countries than in others. While the United States and other wealthy countries may be able to detect and quarantine the first carriers, countries with fragile health care systems will not. The virus has already reached Cambodia, India, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines and rural Russia.

Quote
The virus’s most vulnerable target is Africa, many experts said. More than 1 million expatriate Chinese work there, mostly on mining, drilling or engineering projects. Also, many Africans work and study in China and other countries where the virus has been found.

If anyone on the continent has the virus now, “I’m not sure the diagnostic systems are in place to detect it,” said Dr. Daniel Bausch, head of scientific programs for the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, who is consulting with the W.H.O. on the outbreak.

Quote
At the moment, it seems unlikely that the virus will spread widely in countries with vigorous, alert public health systems, said Dr. William Schaffner, a preventive medicine specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

“Every doctor in the U.S. has this top of mind,” he said. “Any patient with fever or respiratory problems will get two questions. ‘Have you been to China? Have you had contact with anyone who has?’ If the answer is yes, they’ll be put in isolation right away.”

Assuming the virus spreads globally, tourism to and trade with countries besides China may be affected — and the urgency to find ways to halt the virus and prevent deaths will grow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on February 02, 2020, 02:13:41 PM
Quote
No need for panic here in the US, with our resources and public health systems, but life is going to seriously suck for the poorer parts of the globe and it may rub of on us in unforeseen ways.
Unforeseen? I think it is very foreseeable that the economic impact of a global closing of borders and avoidance of the marketplace is going to devastating. There is also a political impact upon the attitude towards open borders with some ideological groups suffering from their open border position and others profiting from their anti-open border position. Also very predictable is the anti-Chinese, anti-Asian factor that is already taking place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: antsyaunt on February 02, 2020, 02:31:52 PM
It's starting to look like we're not going to avoid this turning into a pandemic (disease spread on >1 continent), with Africa is squarely in the crosshairs.  No need for panic here in the US, with our resources and public health systems, but life is going to seriously suck for the poorer parts of the globe and it may rub of on us in unforeseen ways.


Thanks for posting this.  I can’t imagine what some families are/will be experiencing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on February 02, 2020, 03:34:18 PM
If there are only 300 deaths and 14000 cases then it’s a 2% fatality rate but I don’t see how you can be sure of the numbers since it’s a communist country with problems of sharing accuate information

Probably most of those who died are elderly. Given that it’s easy for them to at some point to exaggerate the situation and no doubt to push something like vaccines when they have them

I am not sure how a flu can have high numbers mostly confined within one city. I have doubts that that fits many patterns of how flu spreads. By the time they realize that there is a flu then it should have spread elsewhere.

If some elite powers wanted China to report inaccurate statistics or false information for the purpose of promoting vaccines or loss of freedom at some point in the future, that would be fairly simple to pull off. No one can verify any of it
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 02, 2020, 04:05:23 PM
Unforeseen? I think it is very foreseeable that the economic impact of a global closing of borders and avoidance of the marketplace is going to devastating. There is also a political impact upon the attitude towards open borders with some ideological groups suffering from their open border position and others profiting from their anti-open border position. Also very predictable is the anti-Chinese, anti-Asian factor that is already taking place.

Administration officials are predicting most likely only mild economic repercussions here in the US.


If there are only 300 deaths and 14000 cases then it’s a 2% fatality rate but I don’t see how you can be sure of the numbers since it’s a communist country with problems of sharing accuate information

We can't be sure of the numbers right now.  There's likely many more mild cases that haven't been accounted for and possibly some mis-attributed deaths as well.


I am not sure how a flu can have high numbers mostly confined within one city. I have doubts that that fits many patterns of how flu spreads. By the time they realize that there is a flu then it should have spread elsewhere.

It's not the flu, it's a novel coronavirus most closely related to an animal strain that became transmissible human to human within the geographic area of Wuhan, a central transport hub of China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 02, 2020, 04:27:19 PM
This graphic (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html) shows were Wuhan fits in with other infectious diseases.  With the limited data we have available, its lethality and ability to spread could wind up being anywhere inside the pink rectangle and, more likely than not, winds up being closer in character to seasonal flu than SARS.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49479298381_63cf9907da_z.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 02, 2020, 04:41:56 PM
Bloomberg:  Coronavirus May Transmit Along Fecal-Oral Route, Xinhua Reports (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-02/coronavirus-may-transmit-along-fecal-oral-route-xinhua-reports)

Quote
Virus genetic material was discovered in patient stool and rectal swabs, Xinhua said Sunday. The finding was made by scientists from the Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences after noting that some patients infected with the 2019-nCoV virus had diarrhea early in the disease, instead of a fever, which is more common, the report said.

That means the pathogen might be transmitted along the fecal-oral route, not just from coming into contact with virus-laden droplets emitted from a sick person’s cough.


Crap.  One more reason the poor countries could get hit hard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 02, 2020, 05:17:17 PM
Crap.

That... is the only appropriate word.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on February 02, 2020, 06:56:11 PM

Interesting website

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 02, 2020, 07:15:14 PM
Interesting website

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

I agree.  It looks like it's in sync with the Johns Hopkins data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on February 02, 2020, 07:20:41 PM
According to data I found on the web, they claims the Spanish flu in 1918 killed 3% to 6% of the worlds population but in Vermont  I see it was well under 1% or close to half of one percent

Other websites claim spanish flu killed 1/3 of the worlds population so that seems possibly inaccurate?

https://vermonthistory.org/flu-epidemic-1918

Statistics reported by the Board of Health for 1918 show the devastation. In a state with a population of 355,956 in the 1910 census, there were 43,735 cases of influenza in 1918, resulting in 1,772 deaths. The disease thus attacked 13 percent of the population and accounted for 25 percent of deaths for the year


===============

Smithsonian admits Spanish flu happened mostly at military camps, urban areas and was connected to poor sanitation and poor nutrition; and yet in the US itself the death rate appears low and especially in rural areas is my impression

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/ten-myths-about-1918-flu-pandemic-180967810/

Much of the high death rate can be attributed to crowding in military camps and urban environments, as well as poor nutrition and sanitation, which suffered during wartime. It’s now thought that many of the deaths were due to the development of bacterial pneumonias in lungs weakened by influenza.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 02, 2020, 07:23:26 PM
That... is the only appropriate word.

Great.  And now it's in the area that cant keep human feces off the streets.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/02/coronavirus-live-updates-white-house-studying-economic-impact.html (https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/02/coronavirus-live-updates-white-house-studying-economic-impact.html)
Ninth US case confirmed in California as White House studies economic impact of coronavirus outbreak

The ninth U.S. case of coronavirus was confirmed in Santa Clara County on Sunday. It's the second case in the San Francisco Bay area. The case is in a woman who was recently in Wuhan, China, and visited the U.S. to see family on Jan 23, according to the County of Santa Clara Public Health Department.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 02, 2020, 07:40:05 PM
Good thing the homeless don't fly back and forth to China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 02, 2020, 08:54:20 PM
Apparently there is concern by some doctors in China that toilet flushing could potentially aersolize a sufficient number of virus particles to transmit the infections to others nearby.  But the jury's still out, awaiting more data.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3048611/coronavirus-scientists-identify-possible-new-mode-transmission (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3048611/coronavirus-scientists-identify-possible-new-mode-transmission)

Quote
The professor said it was possible the coronavirus might be transmitted via faeces. After entering the intestine and multiplying, it may then be excreted and come into contact with a person's hands, he said.

He also warned that the virus could be turned to vapour by the force of a toilet flushing, endangering people in the same room.

“Now disinfection of toilets may be on the agenda,” Zhang told the Beijing News. “Toilets used by patients with new coronary pneumonia or suspected patients need to be thoroughly disinfected and the restroom must be ventilated.”

However, Feng Luzhao, a researcher with Chinse Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, said further investigation was needed to prove transmission through this method. He said the recent findings only indicated the virus could replicate and exist in the digestive tract.

“Whether it is transmitted through the feces or re-transmitted via the formation of aerosols by virus-containing droplets, we need epidemiological investigation and research to further confirm,” Feng said at a daily press conference held by the National Health Commission on Sunday.

The phenomena still served as a reminder of the importance of washing your hands frequently, Feng said.


It really, really sucks having to generate so much of the epidemiology for this disease on the fly like this. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on February 02, 2020, 09:38:53 PM
I have a personal interest in this situation as my son lives in Laos and travels in that area and his girlfriend is from China. Her planned April trip to her home, 600 miles from Wuhan, has been cancelled. He says a lot of people are wearing masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 03, 2020, 06:33:16 AM
Good thing the homeless don't fly back and forth to China.

Unfortunately, Chinatown borders the worst area.  It is just to left of Financial District on thie below feces alert map.  The problem area centers on Union Square just South of it.  I know the area well as for three years I spent every other week there on business back in 90s.  it has declined precipitously since then.

(https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.thehulltruth.com-vbulletin/640x434/sf_poop_map_8410bb9e1dab840a84cba1299419c9161e73d0d0.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 03, 2020, 09:02:09 AM
I guess it’s nature’s solution to California’s housing crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 03, 2020, 09:02:53 AM
On the other hand, Chinatown businesses have been taking precautions from the start.  They seem on top of things.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/amp/Coronavirus-hits-Bay-Area-businesses-travel-to-15021156.php (https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/amp/Coronavirus-hits-Bay-Area-businesses-travel-to-15021156.php)
Coronavirus hits Bay Area businesses, travel to China: ‘Nobody wants to fly there’

Ding Lee, president of the local chapter of the Chinese Consolidated Benevolent Association, said several Chinatown restaurants have canceled holiday banquets that would typically attract hundreds of people. Restaurants are a big part of the economy in the historic neighborhood, and it will take a hit if more banquets are canceled, he said.

Yet those same fears are boosting other businesses. Weee, a Fremont grocery delivery company that specializes in Chinese products, saw its sales jump by 30%. Customers told the company they are trying to avoid going to places with crowds, including Asian supermarkets, CEO Larry Liu said.

Liu’s firm strongly encouraged its employees to cancel or postpone trips to China until the outbreak is contained. Employees who return from China are subject to a two-week quarantine before they can return to the office, he said.

Many larger Bay Area companies have instituted similar policies, requiring employees to work from home for 14 days after returning from China.

Getting home may soon be harder. United Airlines announced Friday that it will stop flying to China next week until the end of March, including flights from its SFO hub. It will still run one daily flight to Hong Kong. China Southern Airlines canceled its three weekly flights from Wuhan to SFO after the Chinese government closed that city’s airport.

“The demand simply has gone down, nobody wants to fly there,” Kain said. Because of the official bans and corporate policies against travel, she said, businesses will be less able to monitor Chinese suppliers.

Other businesses that routinely send employees to China, such as consulting firms, will be less affected by the flight restrictions, because much of their work can be done remotely, said Vinod Aggarwal, a professor at UC Berkeley and director of the Berkeley Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Study Center.

The Coast Guard is also monitoring large ships and getting advance notice for vessels that might have been in a coronavirus-infected port. Operators are required to report sick or deceased crew and passengers within the past 15 days to the CDC.

The cuts in flights and travel restrictions will hit tourism, a big industry in San Francisco and the Bay Area. As the Chinese middle class has grown, more tourists from more parts of the country take flights to San Francisco and pump money into the local economy, according to Sean Randolph, senior director of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. More than 500,000 tourists came from China to San Francisco in 2019, according to San Francisco Travel.

Bay Area residents are also canceling personal trips. Lee of the Chinatown group had planned to take a cruise next week with stops throughout southeast Asia, including Singapore, Thailand, Cambodia and Hong Kong. But after several airlines canceled flights to and from China, Lee feared he would be isolated or quarantined upon his return. Instead of risking exposure, he chose to cancel the cruise — losing $6,000 on the nonrefundable trip.

“I had no choice,” Lee said. “Keeping our community safe, that’s the most important.”

Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 03, 2020, 10:18:52 AM
Anybody feeling pushback here? The seasonal flu we do nothing to prevent has already killed on the order of 10,000 and hospitalized ~200,000. Coronavirus is marginally worse than this humdrum flu we disregard as the price of being in the game.

Something stinks here and the coverage is incredibly overblown. We're not talking about a Marburg variant where you bleed out of your eyes; most of us would think of this as a bad cold.

Somebody is making money or pushing a policy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 03, 2020, 10:38:53 AM
It’s true, anyone in North America freaking out over this who hasn’t gotten their flu shot has got everything ass-backwards.

What’s going on in Asia is a different story, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 03, 2020, 11:18:02 AM
Well I don't get a flu shot but it's because (for me, not advice) I have determined it not to be statistically beneficial.

But I do worry that this story has legs because it offers too much to too many. Our media LOVES a pandemic story to drive viewers/readers. This dovetails way too neatly into the Hong Kong independence movement. The Chinese get to experiment at closing a city. The travel restrictions hit those on the borders, notably the Uyghers the Chinese have been trying to exterminate.

Just too many odd coincidences for me to believe a mild flu is worth the hype.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 03, 2020, 11:37:39 AM
But I do worry that this story has legs because it offers too much to too many. Our media LOVES a pandemic story to drive viewers/readers.
...
Just too many odd coincidences for me to believe a mild flu is worth the hype.

Definitely no need for panic in US.  But what we dont want to do is take the typical 50,000 deaths from flu and add another 50,000 on top of that.  That this disease can go ten days without symptoms manifesting gives it the ability to spread quickly.  And that it can cause pneumonia that can kill even younger, healthy people makes it a legitimate threat. 

So it seems prudent to not travel there and to have people who have travelled there to isolate themselves for a couple weeks in addition to practicing good hygiene.  And it doesnt hurt having some masks and appropriate surface disinfectant on hand.

But of course, we also need to watch for overeach.  Politicians are good at "not letting a crisis go to waste."
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 03, 2020, 02:38:21 PM
What a way to end a vacation.

https://abcstlouis.com/news/nation-world/cruise-ship-passenger-tests-positive-for-virus (https://abcstlouis.com/news/nation-world/cruise-ship-passenger-tests-positive-for-virus)
Cruise ship passenger tests positive for virus

The ship returned to Yokohama carrying 3,000 passengers and crew members after making port calls in Vietnam, Taiwan and Okinawa. A team of quarantine officials and medical staff boarded the ship on Monday night and began medical checks of everyone on board...

He said some people on the ship have developed coughs, fevers and other symptoms, though they were not yet linked to the virus. The passengers and crew members may be quarantined on the ship if the captain agrees to do so, the official said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 03, 2020, 03:43:24 PM
I think Southeast Asia could turn out to be worse than China.

With the bulk of the world’s merchant marine manpower, the lion’s share of global expatriate domestic and labor workers, plus poor public health infrastructure and governments with no wherewithal to confront the next door superpower, things could get grim. 

Is China going to roll out field hospitals in Manila, Jakarta, Saigon, and whoever else needs it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 03, 2020, 03:51:59 PM
Is China going to roll out field hospitals in Manila, Jakarta, Saigon, and whoever else needs it?

Heck, the Hong Kong health care workers had to go on strike to get them to take basic steps to stem flow of infected individuals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 03, 2020, 08:14:02 PM
Hong Kong had it's first death, the second to occur outside of mainland China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 03, 2020, 08:29:55 PM
WSJ:  Fast-moving coronavirus outbreak in China has created a live global public-health experiment in containment (https://www.wsj.com/articles/health-officials-err-on-side-of-caution-to-contain-viral-outbreak-11580738961?tesla=y&mod=article_inline)

Quote
Amid the fast-moving coronavirus outbreak emanating from China, companies, governments and schools are developing policies on the fly to try to halt the spread, creating a live global public-health experiment in containment.

Quote
Outright travel bans might have come too late to fully stop the contagion, some experts say. “At this point, the cows are out of the barn,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s center for infectious disease research and policy. “To think that we’re going to stop it by ending travel is not at all practical.”

Quote
“We either stop it now or we never stop it,” said Lawrence Gostin, the director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University. “We have to be prepared for the possibility that this is going to be like the seasonal flu.”

Quote
Travel bans also often discourage international cooperation and have social and economic consequences that some experts say can damage the public-health response, especially if countries become more secretive about their case numbers to avoid travel and trade repercussions.

Others, however, say it makes sense that airlines would want to avoid putting their employees in danger and that countries want to protect their own citizens.

“At the start of an outbreak, there’s a fog of war,” said Nathan Grubaugh, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health. “You’re trying to weigh two bad choices to figure out which is worse, and I think in this case, limited travel and trade is worse.”

Quote
“If you happen to walk down the street and pass someone with the virus you’re not going to catch it from them,” said Robert Citronberg, an infectious-disease specialist at Advocate Health Care in Illinois. Instead, health authorities are attempting to turn fears over the coronavirus into action against a more immediate threat: “A lot of people who are concerned about the coronavirus haven’t even gotten a flu shot,” he said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on February 03, 2020, 08:37:29 PM
Never panic, but prepare.

The problem with this virus, so far as we can ascertain from China data, is that there is a long time without symptoms so it spreads easily, it goes quickly to pneumonia, and has a reasonably high death rate. 

I am not going to try and find the references.  I believe the numbers I saw were R0 rate of 10 for SARS, 2-4 estimated for COV, and .1 for our normal seasonal flu. So, if what is being reported stays as its normal, in other countries than China, then it is many  times as deadly as our normal seasonal flu, but not as near as deadly as SARS or the spanish flu of 1918.   

But, second point, is that it makes alot of people very sick, if we can hospitalize and treat in this country, then we can save alot of these, but all indications are that percentagewise it causes more adverse respiratory reactions than our usual seasonal flu.  Right now out of very few ( that we know of) infections on the west coast, at least 3 had to be hospitalized, not just because of Observation.  The couple from San Benito county were just transferred today to San Francisco to a large hospital, and the male in Washington state, while initially having mild symtoms became quite seriously ill. 

I read about the Patient in washington state, and  I read about this in the New England Journal of Medicine  - so not some tabloid....

 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

So, a healthy 35 year old male, week one, looks like typical cold/flu, second week pneumonia and needs hospital care — my summary.  If many cases are like this, all at once, we will overwhelm the hospitals. This is one of our major risks.  Having too many sick at once.  At this point,  this virus or a mutation of it, will be a virus that we have to contend with, you cant keep it from spreading everywhere as it is not deadly enough nor quick enough.  But, if it is going to make a large amount of people as sick as this guy, we need to have not everyone get it at once.  So, yes, taking steps to slow down the pandemic are good.

Patient was a healthy 35 year old, non-smoker, male.  After the blood level oxygen monitoring showed that being low is when he was started on more intensive treatment ( recommend buying a fingertip monitor for home use, as then you would have a real physical indication of being bad enough to want to risk a hospital ).  They confirmed with x-rays.  They treated for pneumonia with antibiotics and extra oxygen thru a nose tube. Sounds like an IV drop of fluids which also administered the antibiotics.  They soon discontinued the antibiotics and changed to an ” investigative” antiviral. This was Illness day 9 ( hospital day 5), when he had a change of respiratory status, ie., the low O2 levels and likely breathing trouble.  So, sounds like his first week was totally unremarkable, second week was realy very sick.  Taken off O2 and medicines on illness day 12.

   
Quote
On day 6, the patient was started on supplemental oxygen, delivered by nasal cannula at 2 liters per minute. Given the changing clinical presentation and concern about hospital-acquired pneumonia, treatment with vancomycin (a 1750-mg loading dose followed by 1 g administered intravenously every 8 hours) and cefepime (administered intravenously every 8 hours) was initiated.

    clinicians pursued compassionate use of an investigational antiviral therapy. Treatment with intravenous remdesivir (a novel nucleotide analogue prodrug in development10,11) was initiated on the evening of day 7, and no adverse events were observed in association with the infusion. Vancomycin was discontinued on the evening of day 7, and cefepime was discontinued on the following day, after serial negative procalcitonin levels and negative nasal PCR testing for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

    On hospital day 8 (illness day 12), the patient’s clinical condition improved. Supplemental oxygen was discontinued, and his oxygen saturation values improved to 94 to 96% while he was breathing ambient air. The previous bilateral lower-lobe rales were no longer present. His appetite improved, and he was asymptomatic aside from intermittent dry cough and rhinorrhea. As of January 30, 2020, the patient remains hospitalized. He is afebrile, and all symptoms have resolved with the exception of his cough, which is decreasing in severity.

They show his symptoms and temperature on a bar chart by day.  That second week was real bad, real high temps, throwing up, diarea, in addition to the cough and impared lungs...
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on February 03, 2020, 08:50:35 PM
It is a stretch to try and make an illogical connection to the flu shot and concern over catching this new virus.  For starters, this years flu shot is not even that effective for this years flu ! Secondly, the shot also, for some, makes them feel bad. Third, the new virus looks like it is much more dangerous.  We all get to choose where our limit is to what dangers we expose ourselves to.  Some people jump out of airplanes, others find it too risky but may be comfortable with other activities

It is not helpful in having a discussion to bring in non-connected points.  But, our media just loves to do that, a good way to deflect.  Why do they feel a need to deflect ?  Why not address this virus and peoples concern about it. 

In the sense they are trying to avert panic, I guess, but insulting peoples intelligence is not the way to go about it
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 03, 2020, 09:15:51 PM
WSJ:  Coronavirus Outbreak a Major Test of China’s System, Says Xi Jinping (https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-coronavirus-hospital-is-completed-as-cases-deaths-keep-climbing-11580720077)

Quote
“Anyone who fails to perform their duties will be punished according to discipline and law,” Mr. Xi said, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

Mr. Xi also said he was closely monitoring the effects of the epidemic on China’s economy, according to Xinhua.

Quote
Russia, which has already tightened its borders and restricted air travel, might start deporting foreigners who are infected, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said during a televised meeting Monday. President Vladimir Putin ordered the use of military aircraft to evacuate Russian nationals stuck in parts of China worst affected by the coronavirus.

Several governments, including the U.S. and the U.K., have chartered planes to repatriate people from Hubei.

The Israeli health ministry on Sunday began requiring all citizens returning from China to quarantine themselves at home for 14 days, and the country’s borders are closed to noncitizens who have been in China in the past two weeks. Several other countries in the Middle East—Iran, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Iraq and Egypt—took measures to distance themselves from contact with China, including suspending flights to and from the mainland.

Ms. Hua, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, singled out U.S. restrictions in criticizing some governments as overreacting, saying the WHO doesn’t endorse a travel ban. “We hope countries will make reasonable, calm and science-based judgments and responses,” she said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 03, 2020, 10:34:26 PM
It doesnt matter whether governments implement travel bans because the airlines and other companies are doing it on their own. Even when they didnt, their employees simply refused to enter there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on February 03, 2020, 11:22:57 PM
I said this wrong, I am not medical and forgot what R0 is.  what I typed above wasnt R0, but a comparision of fatality rates
Quote
I am not going to try and find the references.  I believe the numbers I saw were R0 rate of 10 for SARS, 2-4 estimated for COV, and .1 for our normal seasonal flu. So, if what is being reported stays as its normal, in other countries than China, then it is many  times as deadly as our normal seasonal flu, but not as near as deadly as SARS or the spanish flu of 1918.

So, those are estimates of fatality rates.  .1 regular seasonal flu; 2-4 estimate for nCOV, 10% for SARS

R0 is infection rate, how many people are infected per one carrier.  Seasonal Flu - 1.28
estimate for nCov - 2.5 to 3, with a recent study estimating it as high as 4.8

Serious Complication Rate (requires an ICU bed or extensive medical intervention) Seasonal Flu - 1%
nCov - estimated at 20%

Quote
According to the CDC they estimates that influenza (the flu) for 2019 has resulted in between 19 million – 26 million illnesses, between 180,000 – 310,000 hospitalizations and between 10,000 – 25,000 deaths.

f you do the comparison, with 19 - 25 million illnesses, nCov could kill 570 - 750 thousand individuals, with an estimated 3.8 - 5 million people needing serious medical intervention or a ICU bed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 03, 2020, 11:58:58 PM
It is a stretch to try and make an illogical connection to the flu shot and concern over catching this new virus.

Epidemiologically it appears to be closer to flu than other recent novel epidemics.  It's not an unreasonable comparison in terms of risk assessment/management.


For starters, this years flu shot is not even that effective for this years flu !

Flu vaccine rarely ever is "that effective" at preventing flu but it does reduce ICU admissions by >80%, which means you probably won't die from it.


Secondly, the shot also, for some, makes them feel bad.

It makes a lot of people feel bad.  I get mine on Friday afternoon and lay around all weekend.


Third, the new virus looks like it is much more dangerous. 

And if it actually turns out to be much more dangerous the healthcare system will sorely need beds for coronavirus patients that would otherwise be occupied by those with influenza.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 04, 2020, 09:58:59 AM
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/amp/U-S-officials-take-aggressive-measures-to-15027383.php (https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/amp/U-S-officials-take-aggressive-measures-to-15027383.php)
Bay Area officials scramble to contain coronavirus as UCSF accepts two patients
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on February 04, 2020, 10:26:05 AM

Quote
(Flu shot) It makes a lot of people feel bad.  I get mine on Friday afternoon and lay around all weekend.

 Really ? It must be doing wonders for your body / health
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 04, 2020, 11:29:26 AM
It’s a simulated viral attack that stimulates an appropriate response that gets stored with the immune system’s other battle plans.  The cytokines generated as part of the immune response in that war game make many people feel like crap.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on February 04, 2020, 12:02:30 PM
Epidemiologically it appears to be closer to flu than other recent novel epidemics.  It's not an unreasonable comparison in terms of risk assessment/management.


Flu vaccine rarely ever is "that effective" at preventing flu but it does reduce ICU admissions by >80%, which means you probably won't die from it.


It makes a lot of people feel bad.  I get mine on Friday afternoon and lay around all weekend.


And if it actually turns out to be much more dangerous the healthcare system will sorely need beds for coronavirus patients that would otherwise be occupied by those with influenza.

You know that is not what the jounalists are saying. The papers are mentioning flu shots to divert attention and to minimize concern over the nCOV.  And, this is working for many people,  so they read this and interpret it to mean that you shouldnt be concerned over the nCOV if you are not concerned about the flu ( lack of concern to them evidenced by not getting the shot)

If the papers where saying, hey, please, if medically it wont make you feel too bad, please go get the flu shot if able so that we can save hospital beds for this new, much worse virus.  But, that is not what they are saying.  Their whole intent on bringing up not vaccinating is to minimize concern over the nCOV. ( ANd, secondarily to minimize all people who are vaccine choice)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 04, 2020, 02:04:40 PM
I wouldn't place the blame on the media or journalists.  These are recommendations from public health and infectious disease professionals across the globe. 

While they haven't reached a clear consensus on how this novel coronavirus plays out (because we're forced to learn about how the disease behaves while we're fighting it), there is very strong agreement that the flu will likely kill many more people over the next 12 months.

It's human nature to fear the mundane less than the dramatic, despite the fact that it's the mundane that usually kills us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 04, 2020, 02:28:01 PM
Slightly-good news, maybe:

ArsTechnica, 2/4/20: Symptomless spread of new coronavirus questioned as outbreak mushrooms (https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/symptomless-spread-of-new-coronavirus-questioned-as-outbreak-mushrooms/)

Quote
The Chinese businesswoman who spread the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) to four colleagues in Germany while reportedly experiencing no symptoms of the infection actually did have symptoms, according to a news report in Science.

The woman’s case, published January 30 in The New England Journal of Medicine, was considered the most clearly documented evidence that the novel viral infection could spread silently from asymptomatic people. ...

But that conclusion now appears to be based on false information. ...

According to the new report in Science, the businesswoman’s 2019-nCoV infection symptoms went unrecognized because they were mild, masked by over-the-counter medications, and—most notably—the authors of the NEJM article didn’t speak with her before the article was published. ...

Without direct communication with her prior to the publication, the NEJM article’s authors relied on the accounts of her four sickened colleagues in Germany, who said she didn’t seem sick during her visit.

But government health officials in Germany were later able to reach the Shanghai woman by telephone. People privy to details of the call told Science that she said she felt tired, had muscle pains, and took a fever-reducer during her visit. ...

[Co-author] virologist Christian Drosten of the Charité University Hospital in Berlin, said, “I feel bad about how this went, but I don’t think anybody is at fault here. Apparently, the woman could not be reached at first and people felt this had to be communicated quickly.”

Drosten went on to say that—despite the correction—the five cases highlight a potentially dangerous feature of this outbreak—that is, that the infection may not be very dangerous.

“There is increasingly the sense that patients may just experience mild cold symptoms, while already shedding the virus,” he said. “Those are not symptoms that lead people to stay at home.”

Indeed, as the outbreak has continued to escalate, experts have noted that the virus appears more contagious than initially thought and that the early outbreak responses focused heavily on identifying the most severe cases, such as those involving pneumonia and respiratory distress. That focus may have potentially missed the spread of mild disease, which may be far more extensive than what is known even now. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 04, 2020, 08:41:06 PM
Cruise ship passenger tests positive for virus

Japan Times:  At least 10 on quarantined Japanese cruise ship infected with coronavirus (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/05/national/science-health/quarantined-japanese-cruise-ship-infected-coronavirus/)

Quote
Results for 31 of them came back, and 10 people in their 50s to 80s were found to be infected and are being sent to a hospital, he said, adding that none are showing severe symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 04, 2020, 08:58:03 PM
Japan Times:  At least 10 on quarantined Japanese cruise ship infected with coronavirus (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/05/national/science-health/quarantined-japanese-cruise-ship-infected-coronavirus/)

Ugh.  That is horrible.  Poor vacationers.

Thought about shorting cruise lines but others beat me to it.  For example, carnival cruise lines already down from $53 to $43.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 04, 2020, 09:24:38 PM
CDC:  Interim US Guidance for Risk Assessment and Public Health Management of Persons with Potential 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Exposure in Travel-associated or Community Settings (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/risk-assessment.html)

Quote
Most often, spread from person-to-person happens during close exposure to a person infected with 2019-nCoV. Person-to-person spread is thought to occur mainly via respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, similar to how influenza viruses and other respiratory pathogens spread. These droplets can land in the mouths, noses, or eyes of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs. It is currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.

(https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/images/plane-seating-diagram.jpg)

Guidance for stratifying aircraft contact risk based on distance from infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 04, 2020, 10:33:37 PM
Guidance for stratifying aircraft contact risk based on distance from infected.

I mentioned premium airline credit cards as a prep in another thread.  One thing they allow me to do is upgrade to First Class every flight.  There is a huge difference in spacing between that and coach.  Good thing as I have to head to NYC in three weeks and I am sure this will be lurking around there.

(http://theflight.info/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Seat_map_Delta_Airlines_Boeing_737-900-1024x265.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 05, 2020, 12:21:37 AM
Restricting the movement of 20 million people is difficult to achieve and often counterproductive in pandemics. But China is high tech surveillance state and might have more success.


WSJ:  China Marshals Its Surveillance Powers Against Coronavirus (https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-marshals-the-power-of-its-surveillance-state-in-fight-against-coronavirus-11580831633?mod=hp_lead_pos6)

Quote
In January, a person infected with the dangerous new Wuhan coronavirus used public transportation to crisscross the eastern Chinese city of Nanjing, potentially exposing those along the way to the highly contagious pathogen.

Using the country’s pervasive digital-surveillance apparatus, authorities were able to track—down to the minute—the sick person’s exact journey through the city’s subway system.

Officials then published those and other details of the person’s movements on social media and warned residents to get themselves checked if they had been in the vicinity at the time.


Quote
China has built a formidable digital-surveillance system in recent years, linking facial recognition, security cameras and social-media monitoring with regular human surveillance. The aim is to keep tabs on its 1.4 billion citizens, chiefly to identify and prevent threats to social order and Communist Party control.

The country’s state-run media has celebrated the application of the authorities’ big-data tracking abilities in the campaign to control the disease outbreak, touting it as an example of the social benefits of technology.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 05, 2020, 06:50:41 AM
Interesting thoughts on minimizing spread.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stop-a-u-s-coronavirus-outbreak-before-it-starts-11580859525 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/stop-a-u-s-coronavirus-outbreak-before-it-starts-11580859525)
Stop a U.S. Coronavirus Outbreak Before It Starts
It’s time to start testing patients with unexplained pneumonia, even if they haven’t traveled to China.


First, doctors must be on high alert. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention should expand its guidance to doctors: Be suspicious of anyone with unexplained pneumonia who tests negative for common viruses, even if the patient has no connection to China.

An expanded sentinel surveillance system—detailed data collected from a network of high-risk locations—could help spot unusual clusters of illness that might be the beginning of an outbreak. If only 10% to 20% of people develop serious symptoms, then for every person diagnosed there may be eight or nine who elude detection.

Second, these expanded criteria should translate into broader screening. It’s crucial to identify cases of secondary spread, in which someone catches the virus from another person who hasn’t recently been to China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 05, 2020, 08:27:33 AM
Like the authors mention, expanding surveillance to non-China-travel suspects requires vastly increased laboratory capacity.  The process of ramping up testing isn't as quick and easy as it sounds but needs to be prioritized so we can back away from quarantine, which causes more problems than it solves the longer it is in place.  Quarantine is the martial law of medicine and at best is just a stop-gap measure to buy time for more civilized approaches to dealing with an epidemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: nano. on February 05, 2020, 11:06:38 AM
Not to jump into the tinfoil hat party, but anybody have thoughts on that screenshot from Tencent talking about 150K infected w/ 24K dead?

I'm wondering if it was an actual error, or if the Chinese govt. really is trying to keep a lid on just how bad it is there...
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 05, 2020, 12:19:42 PM
I think it would be hard to cover up 24,000 dead, even for China.  Too many Chinese citizens (and visitors) have access to telecommunications/Internet, and the word would get out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 05, 2020, 01:17:32 PM
Reuters, 2/5/20: Data suggests virus infections under-reported, exaggerating fatality rate (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-deaths/data-suggests-virus-infections-under-reported-exaggerating-fatality-rate-idUSKBN1ZZ1AH)

Quote
...In Wuhan, the epicenter of the disease, one person has died for every 23 infections reported. That number drops to one on 50 nationally, and outside mainland China, one death has been recorded per 114 confirmed cases.

Experts say the discrepancy is mainly due to under-reporting of milder virus cases in Wuhan and other parts of Hubei province that are grappling with shortages in testing equipment and beds. ...

“It’s good to remember that when H1N1 influenza came out in 2009, estimates of case fatality were 10 percent,” said David Fisman, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, who was working in public health at the time. “That turned out to be incredibly wrong.”

“As the denominator is growing in terms of case numbers, and case fatality goes down and down... you start to realize it’s everywhere,” he said. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 05, 2020, 02:19:31 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/05/tesla-coronavirus-carmaker-plans-delay-to-model-3-deliveries-in-china.html (https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/05/tesla-coronavirus-carmaker-plans-delay-to-model-3-deliveries-in-china.html)
Tesla shares crater 17% after coronavirus delays Model 3 deliveries
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 05, 2020, 10:27:18 PM
Ugh.

https://www.latimes.com/travel/story/2020-02-05/coronavirus-cruise-passengers-diamond-princess (https://www.latimes.com/travel/story/2020-02-05/coronavirus-cruise-passengers-diamond-princess)
20 aboard cruise ship now stricken with coronavirus; the rest quarantined off Japan
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on February 06, 2020, 12:33:12 AM
5 employees from Good Samaritan Hospital in San Jose who took care of the Santa Clara county patients with the nCOV are now sent home for quarantine....

this is a local ( San Jose based) news station broadcast, healthcare workers segment at .38minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAH9TbeADMI&feature=youtu.be

No wonder they sent the san benito county couple up to SF .   

On this side of the hill, there is no change and no masks ( both ways, no masks seen on people and also no masks available at any stores) although, that was yesterday, who knows now
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 06, 2020, 09:08:16 AM
NYT:  Wuhan is told to round up infected residents for mass quarantine camps. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage#link-3cb0be85)

Quote
Sun Chunlan, a vice premier tasked with leading the central government’s response to the outbreak, said city investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts.

“Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Ms. Sun said.

The city’s authorities have raced to meet these instructions by setting up makeshift mass quarantine shelters this week. But concerns are growing about whether the centers, which will house thousands of people in large spaces, will be able to provide even basic care to patients and protect against the risk of further infection.

Quote
Mr. Xi also said his government would crack down on people who assault medical workers and who manufacture and sell fake products, according to Xinhua, the state-run news agency. He also said that officials would take aim at those who resist epidemic prevention and control efforts, including by spreading false rumors.

Quote
“‘Taiwan independence’ separatists have seized on the opportunity to clamor for participation in the World Health Organization’s discussions, in an attempt to use the epidemic to expand the so-called ‘international space’ of Taiwan,” read a statement from China’s Taiwan Affairs Office on Thursday.

In an apparent attempt to avoid taking sides in the dispute, the W.H.O. referred to the island as “Taipei and environs” in a list of Chinese cities and provinces with confirmed cases of the coronavirus. The United Nations body has previously referred to the entire island as Taipei — Taiwan’s capital city. It has also referred to it as Taipei, China, drawing a backlash from residents.


Things are getting nuts over there, and the repercussions will extend far beyond the epidemic itself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 06, 2020, 09:16:14 AM
WaPo:  Chinese doctor who tried to sound alarm about coronavirus — but was silenced by police — has died, friends and colleagues say (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/06/104d0532-4869-11ea-8124-0ca81effcdfb_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&utm_medium=email&utm_source=alert&wpisrc=al_news__alert-world--alert-national&wpmk=1)

Quote
BREAKING: Li Wenliang died Thursday night after contracting the coronavirus at his workplace, Wuhan Central Hospital. He became a national hero and a symbol of the Chinese government's failings after friends reported that he sought to sound warnings about the new coronavirus on Dec. 30.

This is a developing story. It will be updated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 06, 2020, 09:54:21 AM
Things are getting nuts over there, and the repercussions will extend far beyond the epidemic itself.

That's what is scaring me. This is the test case for how a modern society handles a relatively wimpy disease. And lo and behold the Chinese solution is to put people in camps. This is a mild flu variant that could be handled easily without stigmatizing the infected and creating a scare campaign where people clam up and play dumb. The Chinese have created the perfect storm where a person exposed now rationally does all he can to get out. Precisely the wrong policy to contain.

I can't but help thinking of Taleb's iatrogenics discussion where the doctor is worse than the disease. Something here is rotten and I don't believe the Chinese party line.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on February 06, 2020, 12:13:57 PM
I can't but help thinking of Taleb's iatrogenics discussion where the doctor is worse than the disease. Something here is rotten and I don't believe the Chinese party line.

 I often tend to believe or am very suspicious that that's really what it's all about anyway at some level.

That's why it has to be analyzed and investigated from many angles and you should not trust official sources where you have to rely on them to give the information that can't be verified.

That's the problem though is how can you verify information that it is trustworthy ? You can't but ocams razir says go with whatever simple explanation you can come up with and I don't like that either
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 06, 2020, 01:05:38 PM
The Chinese have created the perfect storm where a person exposed now rationally does all he can to get out. Precisely the wrong policy to contain.

Precisely why quarantine is counterproductive, more often than not, and should be used rarely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 06, 2020, 01:09:47 PM
You can't but ocams razir says go with whatever simple explanation you can come up with and I don't like that either

Ockham's Razor has just become an excuse for lazy thinking that leads to oversimplification.  Was relativity the simplest answer?  How about quantum mechanics?  Or even Newton's laws of motion?  The way users bandy it about suggests that we should accept that babies are delivered by storks and a chubby guy with a group of happy elves delivers all the presents found on Christmas morning.  After all there is no way that a multi-generational, nearly global conspiracy could possibly occur, right?  Clearly a sleigh pulled by flying reindeer is a simpler explanation.

One has to dig deeper to find truths.  In physics we never talk just about "simplicity" but rather about "elegance", the cross section of effectiveness with simplicity. That is a much better path.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 06, 2020, 01:58:07 PM
Heliocentrism is a much simpler explanation of the solar system than epicycles, though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 06, 2020, 02:46:30 PM
Precisely why quarantine is counterproductive, more often than not, and should be used rarely.

100% agree. You're not a bad person because you got an illness and the knowledge you'll be stuffed in the dungeon where way, way, way worse stuff will become the way of life is not a good way of containing the virus. Let alone the problem of the first responders who will be themselves quarantined.

The only solution is a guilt free system where the infected are happy to self-report and stymie the spread. Lord help us, we'll never do that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: antsyaunt on February 06, 2020, 03:02:00 PM
The situation and the way it is being reported and handled do not make sense to me.  Why was it necessary to build large hospitals in China for patients with this virus if it’s just a flu?  Why is Hong Kong closing their schools for more than a month?  Why have flights been cancelled if it’s just a flu?  And why did the US DoD announce that military installations near 11 major airports could be used to quarantine people if HHS facilities become filled?  It doesn’t add up.  I would sincerely appreciate reasonable explanations from forum members or links providing explanations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 06, 2020, 03:39:12 PM
Heliocentrism is a much simpler explanation of the solar system than epicycles, though.

Perfect example.  The complete heliocentrism model is actually more complex than the competing geocentrism.  Under geocentrism the largest bodies in the sky, the sun and moon, and the vast number of stars were better explained than a pure heliocentric model.  It was only the "odd stars", i.e. the handfull of planets", which were out of sync.  It took a leap  of complex thinking to understand there were three separate motions, planets around sun, moon around earth, and rotation of earth.  That is the elegance, it is less simple but vastly more effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 06, 2020, 05:21:46 PM
So simplicity is in the eye of the beholder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 06, 2020, 07:02:38 PM
So simplicity is in the eye of the beholder.

Geocentric: Sun, moon, planet, and stars all move in circles around earth. =>  More simple but less effective.

Heliocentric: Earth and other planets all move around sun in circles.  Moon rotates around Earth in a circle. Stars are stationary.  Earth rotates around its axis.  => Less simple but more effective.

But I can see other side too.  Which goes to show application of O.R. is purely subjective.  No skin off my nose. I will leave that to Tycho Brahe.

Back on topic, check out this video of evacuation cargo plane flight:  https://twitter.com/janisfrayer/status/1225295076227608578 (https://twitter.com/janisfrayer/status/1225295076227608578)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 06, 2020, 07:08:36 PM
20 aboard cruise ship now stricken with coronavirus; the rest quarantined off Japan

Another 41 people test positive for coronavirus on quarantined cruise ship in Japan.  The latest test results, from the remaining 171 people who were tested for the virus, mean that 61 people have tested positive for the virus, according to Japan’s Health Minister, Katsunobu Kato.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 06, 2020, 09:16:39 PM
The situation and the way it is being reported and handled do not make sense to me.  Why was it necessary to build large hospitals in China for patients with this virus if it’s just a flu?  Why is Hong Kong closing their schools for more than a month?  Why have flights been cancelled if it’s just a flu?  And why did the US DoD announce that military installations near 11 major airports could be used to quarantine people if HHS facilities become filled?  It doesn’t add up.  I would sincerely appreciate reasonable explanations from forum members or links providing explanations.

At this point we still don't know enough about the disease because it's caused by a novel virus we haven't seen cause disease in humans before, so we can't say with a high degree of certainty that it's "just a flu," although it may very well wind up having a similar death rate.  The closest relatives to this new coronavirus cause SARS and MERS, which appear to be much deadlier than this one but we won't know for certain until we have a better idea of how many people get a mild infection that doesn't make them sick enough to seek medical care. 

The conundrum that public health authorities face is how to best minimize the spread of an airborne infection like this without a good understanding (and won't for several months) of how the disease actually behaves.  It appears that many countries are taking a cue from China's unprecedented decision to quarantine 50 million of their own people and I believe decision makers feel they can't ignore the possibility that this new disease could turn out to be as deadly, or even worse, than the SARS outbreak was twenty years ago.  There's risks both ways with a response that's either too hot or too cold when a decision has to be made with incomplete information, but the temptation to overreact is obviously very strong.

I think the good news for those of us in North America is that we haven't detected the disease spreading out of control like it appears to be doing in China.  We've got a dozen confirmed cases right now that are isolated and being treated appropriately, and the planeloads of high risk US citizens from China are being held in quarantine (the first since 50 years ago for smallpox) so risk of exposure appears to be extremely small for the general populace.  This is not a disease that spreads as easily as measles, it's going to be closer to flu in that regard, so the likelihood that you could catch the disease from passing an infected person in the street is practically zero.  In the US our person to person transmission has been between close family members, and Germany has evidence of coworkers catching the disease during business meetings, so the contact would have to be close and prolonged to spread the infection.

Based on what we know about the disease, I don't think we in the US need to panic about this, but I also can't fault decision makers too much for being more aggressive in their response to this epidemic, either.  I was happy to see the CDC's Dr. Messonnier mention in one of her press conferences that one has to have a sense of humility in these situations and realize that we must be capable of adapting to changing data in order to make good decisions as this outbreak unfolds.  That's good advice for life in general, where we often have to do the best we can with what we have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on February 06, 2020, 09:30:47 PM
Not to muddy the topic, but economic consequences are a factor in this epidemic. Specifically there is a major negative impact on a totally innocent victim: Corona beer. The jokes about the virus being spread through that beer has been taken seriously by the naive. "Beer virus". This has happened before; a popular over the counter diet candy called "Ayd's" left the market because it's similar sounding name to the aids virus.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayds (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayds)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/your-corona-is-safe-from-coronavirusesno-need-to-add-disinfectant-11580908288 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/your-corona-is-safe-from-coronavirusesno-need-to-add-disinfectant-11580908288)

Quote
Brands that happen to have some associations to the word are finding themselves issuing unusual clarifications. Searches for “coronavirus beer” and “beer virus” have spiked sharply over the past couple weeks, according to Google Trends. In the Boston Globe, among other media, Corona beer owner Constellation Brands STZ.B 1.90% has been forced to express confidence in the analytical power of its customers to discern the disconnect between imported Mexican beers and the virus.

Perhaps there should be a copyright search before any disease, hurricane or disaster is given a name of a popular innocent product.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 06, 2020, 09:44:04 PM
WaPo:  Africa has 1.2 billion people and only six labs that can test for coronavirus. How quickly can they ramp up? (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/africa-has-12-billion-people-and-only-six-labs-that-can-test-for-coronavirus-how-quickly-can-they-ramp-up/2020/02/05/68af96de-4758-11ea-91ab-ce439aa5c7c1_story.html)

Quote
No cases have been confirmed so far in any of Africa’s 54 countries, but the risk of an outbreak is high, World Health Organization leaders say. Africa is home to 1.2 billion people, including an estimated 1 million Chinese nationals, who tend to work in business, construction, oil and mining — a testament to Beijing’s increasingly tight relationship with Senegal, Nigeria, Ethiopia and beyond.

Flights from the Asian power bring at least 1,000 travelers to the continent each day. But as of this week, only six labs could test for the coronavirus. (In the United States, all cases were tested at the headquarters of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta until Wednesday, when test kits were sent to more than 100 state labs.)

Quote
Cities across sub-Saharan Africa — thought to be the fastest-growing region on Earth — are densely crowded, which elevates the risk for respiratory contagion, experts say.

Multiple outbreaks are ongoing in other parts of Africa, including simultaneous Ebola and measles outbreaks in eastern Congo. If the coronavirus were to arrive in Africa, some resources probably would have to be diverted away from the response in Congo, complicating already fraught efforts there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 07, 2020, 12:55:48 PM
Perhaps there should be a copyright search before any disease, hurricane or disaster is given a name of a popular innocent product.

I don't know how it could have been avoided in this case because the coronavirus classification applies to a group of viruses that were discovered over 50 years ago.  The name comes from the fact that their protein projections look like a crown (corona) in microscopic images.


(https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Kalina_Atanasova/publication/294263540/figure/fig1/AS:478497144610816@1491094018059/Schematic-representation-of-the-structure-of-a-PRCV-virion-A-An-electron-microscopic.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 07, 2020, 01:14:09 PM
Chinese scientists claim the pangolin was the intermediary between bats and humans.  Other scientists say they haven't provided enough evidence.

AFP, 2/7/20: Pangolin Suspect #1 as direct source of coronavirus outbreak (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-pangolin-potential-link-coronavirus.html)

Quote
Chinese researchers investigating the animal origin of the deadly coronavirus outbreak in China said Friday the endangered pangolin may be the "missing link" between bats and humans, but other scientists said the search may not be over.

An earlier study—since discredited—pointed to snakes, and there remain numerous candidate species in the Wuhan wildlife market thought to be ground zero of the epidemic.

The SARS outbreak of 2002-3, involving a different strain of coronavirus, was transferred to humans by the civet, a small mammal prized in China for its flesh. ...

A recent genetic analysis showed that the strain of the virus currently spreading among humans was 96 percent identical to that found in bats.

But according to Arnaud Fontanet, from France's Pasteur Institute, the disease likely didn't jump straight from bats to humans. ...

After testing more than 1,000 samples from wild animals, scientists at the South China Agricultural University found the genome sequences of viruses in pangolins to be 99 percent identical to those on coronavirus patients, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

But other experts urged caution.

"This is not scientific evidence," said James Wood, head of the department of veterinary medicine at the University of Cambridge. "Investigations into animal reservoirs are extremely important, but results must be then be published for international scrutiny."

"Simply reporting detection of viral RNA with sequence similarity of 99+ percent is not sufficient," he added. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 07, 2020, 02:02:48 PM
WaPo:  Doctor’s death from coronavirus sparks a digital uprising, rattling China’s leaders (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/doctors-death-from-coronavirus-sparks-a-digital-uprising-rattling-chinas-leaders/2020/02/07/a4cb3492-4998-11ea-8a1f-de1597be6cbc_story.html)

Quote
Within hours of Li Wenliang’s death, millions of Chinese, homebound in the coronavirus crisis, tried to bypass censors to post the hashtag #WeWantFreedomOfSpeech in a remarkable but short-lived digital uprising. The users were memorializing Li, who is considered the first to sound the alarm about the deadly new virus when he leaked a Dec. 30 document from his hospital confirming a diagnosis. On Jan. 1, he was detained and silenced by Wuhan police, who accused him of spreading false rumors.

As the torrent of outrage built up overnight, the government in Beijing turned to a familiar tool — censorship — as it sought to prevent the already-staggering public health crisis from taking a volatile turn.

“He was an ordinary figure, but a symbol,” said Zhang Lifan, an independent historian in Beijing. “If it weren’t for the epidemic and nobody could leave their home, there would likely be demonstrations right now. Officials are absolutely concerned.”

Quote
Sun Desheng, a 38-year-old truck driver and longtime dissident in Hubei province, said he was struck by the outpouring of emotion online about Li’s case, but he also didn't feel hopeful.

“With this epidemic, more people know the importance of freedom of speech,” Sun said by phone from Huanggang, adjacent to Wuhan. “It could gradually make people wake up. They see we’ve had decades of growth, our clothes are nicer, our sanitation is better. Then they ask: ‘Is our society truly better?’ ”

But Sun wasn’t convinced that outrage that only existed online could be a catalyst for dramatic change. Li’s case will be forgotten in a few days, he predicted.

“In China, people are not deep thinkers,” he said. “Soon they’ll go back to their celebrity and sports videos.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 07, 2020, 02:47:04 PM
Quote
“In China, people are not deep thinkers,” he said. “Soon they’ll go back to their celebrity and sports videos.”

Wow, I'm glad that only happens in China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on February 07, 2020, 03:29:38 PM
Quote
“In China, people are not deep thinkers,” he said. “Soon they’ll go back to their celebrity and sports videos.”

bread and circuses.  Ancient way to keep people happy with their lives
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: antsyaunt on February 07, 2020, 05:34:22 PM
At this point we still don't know enough about the disease because it's caused by a novel virus we haven't seen cause disease in humans before, so we can't say with a high degree of certainty that it's "just a flu," although it may very well wind up having a similar death rate.  The closest relatives to this new coronavirus cause SARS and MERS, which appear to be much deadlier than this one but we won't know for certain until we have a better idea of how many people get a mild infection that doesn't make them sick enough to seek medical care. 

The conundrum that public health authorities face is how to best minimize the spread of an airborne infection like this without a good understanding (and won't for several months) of how the disease actually behaves...
Thank you very much, Freelancer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 07, 2020, 10:26:00 PM
NYT:  New Report on 138 Coronavirus Cases Reveals Disturbing Details (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-patients.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
The patients ranged in age from 22 to 92, with a median of 56 years, and were admitted to Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University from Jan. 1 to Jan 28. Many of them — 41 percent — were presumed to have caught the virus in the hospital, including 17 people who had been admitted for other illnesses, and 40 health care workers.

Quote
About 10 percent of the patients did not initially have the usual symptoms, cough and fever, but instead had diarrhea and nausea first. Other uncommon symptoms included headache, dizziness and abdominal pain.

Another cause for concern was that some patients who at first appeared mildly or moderately ill then took a turn for the worse several days or even a week into their illness. The median time from their first symptoms to when they became short of breath was five days; to hospitalization, seven days; and to severe breathing trouble, eight days. Experts say that pattern means patients must be carefully monitored, and it is not safe to assume that someone who seems to be doing well early on is out of the woods.

Quote
Over all, about 26 percent of the 138 patients needed intensive care; their median age was 66, compared with a median of 51 years for those who did not require intensive care.

For this series of patients, the death rate was 4.3 percent, which is higher than the estimates coming from other parts of China. The reason is not known, and the figures may change as more information is gathered.

Quote
The data on the patients shows that the illness caused pneumonia and a systemic viral infection that set off a powerful inflammatory response in the body, Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University, said in an interview.

“There are biochemical indicators that a number of the body’s organ systems are likely affected and you have an inflammatory response that is disrupting their function to some extent,” Dr. Schaffner said.

The lungs, heart, liver, kidneys and the systems that control blood clotting are all affected, Dr. Schaffner said, though it is not clear that the virus itself infects organs other than the lungs.

The inflammatory response is a hallmark of a serious viral disease, he said, adding that in recent years it has become apparent that heightened inflammation from diseases like the flu can persist for a month or so after the acute illness is gone, and can increase the risk of heart attacks and strokes in older people.


This article is based on a JAMA article (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessKey=f61bd430-07d8-4b86-a749-bec05bfffb65&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=020720) published today. 


This data raises the concern that there may be some individuals who act as super-spreaders of the disease, which was a problem with SARS.  Also the 10% who don't present with typical respiratory symptoms also pose a risk of increased transmission in the hospital.  This isn't an issue for those of outside of China right now but if we start to see person to person transfer without a clear link to Asia it's going to get tricky. 

Some people appear to recover and then relapse, which means they will require more medical resources before they can be released home.  This is what happened with the young doctor whose tragic death is causing a backlash in China.  This is similar to what was seen in the 1918 flu, along with the massive inflammatory response.

The patients in Wuhan appear to be dying at a higher rate than other areas and it's not clear why.  Until we get some Western data I won't have a lot of faith in the numbers coming out of China. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 08, 2020, 12:41:13 AM
WaPo:  Hundreds of miles from Hubei, additional 30 million Chinese are in coronavirus lockdown (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/hundreds-of-miles-from-hubei-another-30-million-chinese-are-in-coronavirus-lockdown/2020/02/07/03a08282-48b9-11ea-8a1f-de1597be6cbc_story.html)

Quote
The tollgate was closed except for two lanes, where police in full protective gear were checking paperwork and temperatures. Only registered city residents were allowed in — and they were told they would not be allowed back out.

“For your health, please be cooperative during the checkup,” a sign said. The cars contained families with babies, grumpy business executives, young couples, all wearing masks.

Quote
As the outbreak took hold, about 20,000 people were placed under “centralized quarantine” in Wenzhou hotels, where they are now joined by anyone who has had contact with an infected person or has been to Hubei in the previous two weeks.

Chen Bin, a lawyer, was sent to centralized quarantine after returning from his hometown in Hubei, along with his two children and his in-laws.

Now, they are all in different rooms in the same hotel and can communicate only through their phones. At the beginning, Chen said, he couldn’t sleep because he was worried that “even the air is filled with germs.”

Quote
When police with SWAT-style gear including plastic shields showed up at the home of one Wenzhou woman who had close contact with a confirmed case, she refused to go into centralized quarantine.

“I don’t need it!” the woman, in pink pajamas, yelled at the police.

“It’s a must! It’s a government order!” the officer yelled back, a video of the encounter shows.

The woman stabbed at them with a knife to try to fend them off. They eventually subdued her and got her into quarantine.

Quote
“I’m fine with staying at home, even for longer,” Lemon, who works in a government-related job and also did not want to be identified, said over the phone as her daughter giggled nearby. “She’s too small to understand what’s happening. She just knows that ‘the virus that wears a crown’ is terrible and we can’t leave home.”

Quote
For now, people are hunkering down. Chen, the well-stocked resident from northern Wenzhou, expects to be at home for weeks: “I think there’s no hope for the lockdown finishing this month.”


This is absolutely unreal! 

Imagine this happening in the US?  How can this not have serious economic consequences that echo across the entire globe? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 08, 2020, 07:23:28 AM
Makes me wonder how many Americans and Japanese were denied evacuation due to showing symptoms.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/08/asia/coronavirus-deaths-china-intl-hnk/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/08/asia/coronavirus-deaths-china-intl-hnk/index.html)
Deadliest day for coronavirus as mainland China records 86 fatalities, while US announces first American death

Meanwhile, it emerged that a 60-year-old United States citizen had died from the virus at Jinyintian Hospital, in Wuhan, on February 6, according to the US Embassy in Beijing, marking the first confirmed death of a foreigner from the virus. Japan also reported its first death of suspected coronavirus in Wuhan on Saturday, according to an announcement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Japanese man in his 60s died of pneumonia. The hospital that treated him was inconclusive on the cause of the pneumonia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: antsyaunt on February 08, 2020, 08:02:16 AM
I think there is already an economic effect.  I know someone who sells inexpensive women’s clothing items and has been unable to get her orders of leggings made in China.  She said that she saw that a delivery company was furloughing their workers for a couple of weeks. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 08, 2020, 08:50:53 AM
I think there is already an economic effect.  I know someone who sells inexpensive women’s clothing items and has been unable to get her orders of leggings made in China.  She said that she saw that a delivery company was furloughing their workers for a couple of weeks.

Outbreak occured during the annual Spring Festival during which time nearly the entire workforce takes a week off.  The givernment then extended that another week in attempt to reduce virus spread.  So one week was already planned and one was unexpected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 08, 2020, 10:26:11 AM
Oh my.  The people are not happy with government coverup. Powerfull stuff here: https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1225983482469462017?s=09 (https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1225983482469462017?s=09)

Background: https://observers.france24.com/en/20200207-china-wuhan-coronavirus-Fangbin-shopkeeper-censorship-videos (https://observers.france24.com/en/20200207-china-wuhan-coronavirus-Fangbin-shopkeeper-censorship-videos)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 08, 2020, 11:56:39 AM
Well, clear now that evacuation was the correct call.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7980883/amp/Video-shows-officials-protective-suits-dragging-suspected-coronavirus-carriers-homes.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7980883/amp/Video-shows-officials-protective-suits-dragging-suspected-coronavirus-carriers-homes.html)
Coronavirus mass arrests: Eighty-six people die of virus in a DAY in China as Beijing starts rounding up sufferers and videos show hazmat suit-clad goons dragging people from their homes while death toll hits 724

Video showing a man suspected of having coronavirus desperately sprinting away from officials trying to put him in quarantine has emerged, as the communist regime starts rounding up suffers in Wuhan and taking them to camps.

The clip, believed to be taken in Changqing Garden, Wuhan, shows a group of officials approaching the man who who is backed up against a wall.

Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 08, 2020, 01:30:30 PM
NYT:  Lawyer who reported on conditions in Wuhan is missing, friends say. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/08/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
A lawyer who had provided a rare glimpse into the dire conditions in Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, has gone missing, his friends say, expressing fear for his safety.

The lawyer, Chen Qiushi, who is based in Beijing, had been reporting from Wuhan since the city went into lockdown last month as the authorities scrambled to contain the virus.

In a series of video blogs and footage posted on Twitter and sometimes on YouTube, which are both blocked in mainland China, Mr. Chen documented the plight of patients and the shortage of hospital supplies, and he warned of cross-infection in Wuhan’s mass quarantine sites.

A friend who is currently managing Mr. Chen’s Twitter account said contact had been lost with him on Thursday.

Quote
Xu Xiaodong, a prominent mixed martial arts practitioner in China, also said on Friday that he had lost contact with Mr. Chen, his friend. In a video message on Friday, Mr. Xu said that Mr. Chen’s parents had been told that their son had been quarantined because he had visited several hospitals and risked contracting the virus.

“I’m announcing this because I’m scared! Because the next one could be me,” Mr. Xu tweeted on Friday.


Quarantine as cover for liquidating political subversives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 08, 2020, 04:57:28 PM
Quarantine as cover for liquidating political subversives.

That's very close to how I'm reading it as well. They have quarantined every dissident who spoke out of this virus. In my corporate days we'd call this a shift from a why-why to a who-who.

We hosted a party today and the parents were in lockstep... Why am I having Wuhan flu meetings at work when I have no control over it and it's a mild flu at best? Something here smells rotten.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on February 09, 2020, 08:36:44 AM
That's very close to how I'm reading it as well. They have quarantined every dissident who spoke out of this virus. In my corporate days we'd call this a shift from a why-why to a who-who.

We hosted a party today and the parents were in lockstep... Why am I having Wuhan flu meetings at work when I have no control over it and it's a mild flu at best? Something here smells rotten.

makes perfect sense to how things always seem to work but that many people can't seem to fathom or see
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 09, 2020, 08:55:19 AM
makes perfect sense to how things always seem to work but that many people can't seem to fathom or see

Classic Higgs' ratchet:

Higgs's thesis is so compelling that it has become the dominant paradigm for understanding the so-called ratchet effect: government grows during crisis and then retrenches afterwards, but not to the same level as before.
(https://cdn.mises.org/styles/slideshow/s3/static-page/img/crisis_and_leviathan_higgs.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on February 09, 2020, 11:03:26 PM
Classic Higgs' ratchet:

Higgs's thesis is so compelling that it has become the dominant paradigm for understanding the so-called ratchet effect: government grows during crisis and then retrenches afterwards, but not to the same level as before.
(https://cdn.mises.org/styles/slideshow/s3/static-page/img/crisis_and_leviathan_higgs.jpg)

Government secrecy and secret programs since 911 have grown tremendously

Francis Boyle who wrote the antii bio weapons act to control bio weapons said that the act included jail time for creating bio weapons. When the scientists got together for the first conference on synthetic bio research, he said they all called for cancellation of the act and for removal of the jail time provision . That seems to show what their level of interest or concern is about bio weapons

He also said he talked about how anthrax sent to Congress in 2001 came from a US weapons lab, a known fact . As a result all mainstream media was told to never ever interview him again
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 10, 2020, 02:03:26 AM
The Guardian:  Coronavirus: UK declares outbreak 'serious threat' to health  (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/coronavirus-uk-declares-outbreak-serious-threat-to-health)

Quote
Under the measures announced on Monday, the Department of Health said people with coronavirus could now be forcibly quarantined and would not be free to leave, and could be forcibly sent into isolation if they posed a threat to public health.

A spokesman said: “Our infection control procedures are world leading and the NHS is well prepared to deal with novel coronavirus.

“We are strengthening our regulations so we can keep individuals in supported isolation for their own safety and if public health professionals consider they may be at risk of spreading the virus to other members of the public.

“This measure will rightly make it easier for health professionals to help keep people safe across the country.”


Quarantine is contagious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 10, 2020, 09:11:48 AM
Number of confirmed infections on Japan cruise ship jumped up to 135 overnight. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 10, 2020, 09:48:36 AM
Number of confirmed infections on Japan cruise ship jumped up to 135 overnight.

Makes me wonder if Spanish Flu was exacerbated by the large scale ship transport.  Seems like airplanes have much lower rates then ships.  They are tighter quarters but much less exposure time and air is partially filtered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 10, 2020, 10:34:48 AM
UK is closing an entire school due to coronavirus possibility. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 11, 2020, 03:03:06 PM
The World Health Organization proposed an official name: COVID-19. The acronym stands for COronaVIrus Disease 2019, as the illness was first detected the end of last year.


UC San Diego is treating the 13th confirmed case in the US (California's 7th).  They were one of the 167 citizens evacuated from China to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar last week.


The total number of confirmed infections just surpassed 43,000, of which more than 10% have recovered and 2.3% have died.  These favorable odds of survival, currently better than 4 to 1, will continue to improve as additional data comes in over the coming weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 11, 2020, 04:30:53 PM
On radio they are doing interviews with people in first US group released from quarantine.  General sentiment was that they were actually happy with quarentine as they were worried they might have been infected and didnt want to spread to family or community. All were happy to be back in US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 11, 2020, 04:40:53 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/health/first-american-coronavirus-evacuees-set-to-be-released-from-quarantine.amp (https://www.foxnews.com/health/first-american-coronavirus-evacuees-set-to-be-released-from-quarantine.amp)
First American coronavirus evacuees released from quarantine

The first Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, amid the deadly coronavirus outbreak were released on Tuesday after a two-week quarantine at March Air Reserve Base in California. Most of the 195 evacuees left by bus for nearby airports to continue on to their final destination.
...
Jarred Evans, a professional football player among the evacuees, previously told Fox News that he was “ready to go home and see family and friends.”

“They’re doing an amazing job here, the Department of State is definitely doing their work and we appreciate them,” he said.

The evacuees, who have according to several accounts become a close-knit group, threw themselves a Super Bowl party with chicken wings and beer, Evans said, although they were all still taking major precautions while under quarantine.

“This is a very serious matter and the cases [in China] are still rising to this day,” Evans said. “You have to take very important consideration of your hygiene and make sure you are completely healthy and take care of your body.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 12, 2020, 07:08:45 PM
NYT:  Coronavirus Cases Seemed to Be Leveling Off. Not Anymore. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/health/coronavirus-cases-china.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
But on Thursday, officials added more than 14,840 new cases to the tally of the infected in Hubei Province alone, bringing the total number to 48,206 — the largest one-day increase so far recorded. The death toll in the province rose to 1,310, including 242 new deaths.

Quote
Officials now seem to be including infections observed on lung scans alone. This shortcut will help get more patients into needed care, provincial officials said, but it also shows the enormous number of people who are sick and have not been counted in the official tally of the outbreak.

Quote
“We’re in unknown territory,” said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Nashville.

Doctors in China probably don’t have the chemicals necessary to perform complicated testing, and perhaps insufficient numbers of technicians, he speculated.

But lung scans are a perilous means to diagnose patients. Even patients with seasonal flu may develop pneumonia visible on a lung scan. “They’re talking about using this as another diagnostic test, but we haven’t seen it validated by data,” Dr. Schaffner said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 12, 2020, 08:29:41 PM
WaPo:  Most coronavirus cases are mild, complicating the response (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/most-coronavirus-cases-are-mild-complicating-efforts-to-respond/2020/02/12/213603a4-4dc2-11ea-bf44-f5043eb3918a_story.html)

Quote
But the virus’s destructive potential has overshadowed one encouraging aspect of this outbreak: So far, about 82 percent of the cases — including all 14 in the United States — have been mild, with symptoms that require little or no medical intervention. And that proportion may be an undercount.

Health authorities managing the outbreak are trying to understand what that critical fact portends. Are the 45,000 sick people tallied so far just a portion of a vast reservoir of uncounted victims, some of whom may be spreading the disease? And do the mild illnesses reveal characteristics of the virus itself — something that could be useful in crafting a more effective response?

“The fact that there are so many mild cases is a real hallmark of this disease and makes it so different from SARS,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Center for Health Security. “It’s also really challenging. Most of our surveillance is oriented around finding people who require medical intervention.”

Quote
At a presentation on the disease hosted Tuesday by the Aspen Institute in Washington, Nancy Messonnier, an official with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, noted that only a few of the 14 U.S. patients required oxygen during convalescence.

Quote
Currently, the death rate of the disease is hovering around ­2.5 percent, a remarkably high level, about the rate of the 1918 flu pandemic that killed roughly ­50 million people around the world. Normal seasonal flu kills less than one-tenth of one percent of people who contract the virus.

But experts have said the coronavirus fatality rate is likely to decline substantially as they compile a more accurate count of the people who contract the virus and survive. At the Aspen Institute presentation, Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he hoped the rate could decline toward 1 percent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 13, 2020, 06:46:33 AM
WaPo:  Most coronavirus cases are mild, complicating the response (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/most-coronavirus-cases-are-mild-complicating-efforts-to-respond/2020/02/12/213603a4-4dc2-11ea-bf44-f5043eb3918a_story.html)

Isn't that kind of the big headline? We have this new magical boogeyman that requires anyone with a headcold or seasonal flu (during flu season) to be whisked away to quarantine while we could be massively under-reporting because a normal healthy adult shakes it off like a normal cold.

The more this plays out the more I think something really shady went on in China. I don't know what happened here but there seems like a lot of smoke and very little fire.

Perhaps the unsung heroes are the people at the American CDC. They have handled this with aplomb despite getting false and conflicting data from China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on February 13, 2020, 07:20:24 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/us-military-initiates-global-campaign-plan-pandemic (https://www.zerohedge.com/health/us-military-initiates-global-campaign-plan-pandemic)

Quote
And if we do start seeing tens of thousands of confirmed cases here, the level of fear is going to rise dramatically and a lot of people are going to go completely nuts.
In fact, we are already starting to see some really strange things.
For example, a couple of “pranksters” in New York thought it would be really funny to spill a bucket of “coronavirus” in the middle of a crowded subway car…
David Flores and Morris Cordewell donned hazmats suits for the stunt while holding a container filled with liquid that had biological hazard markings on it.
In the video Cordewell gets up and spills the liquid over the floor as train passengers quickly jump out of harm’s way. However, it turns out their bucket contained Kool-Aid juice.

Is this yelling "Fire!" in a crowded movie theater?
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on February 13, 2020, 07:39:50 AM
Isn't that kind of the big headline? We have this new magical boogeyman that requires anyone with a headcold or seasonal flu (during flu season) to be whisked away to quarantine while we could be massively under-reporting because a normal healthy adult shakes it off like a normal cold.

The more this plays out the more I think something really shady went on in China. I don't know what happened here but there seems like a lot of smoke and very little fire.

Perhaps the unsung heroes are the people at the American CDC. They have handled this with aplomb despite getting false and conflicting data from China.

as usual, you succinctly speak my thoughts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 13, 2020, 08:42:13 AM
Twitter banned Zerohedge for their speculation on the root cause of the corona virus.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rebeccabellan/2020/02/03/twitter-bans-zerohedge-for-publishing-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-doxxing-chinese-doctor/#780328b371b3

All these actions just align a little too well for me. Zerohedge? They've written way crazier stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: DrJohn on February 13, 2020, 11:23:36 AM
The question I keep asking myself: Why would China do what they are doing unless this is way more serious than they are letting on?  This is affecting their economy and the stability of the CCP.  It seems like a foolish tact for something that is only slightly more serious than seasonal flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 13, 2020, 11:47:43 AM
The question I keep asking myself: Why would China do what they are doing unless this is way more serious than they are letting on?  This is affecting their economy and the stability of the CCP.  It seems like a foolish tact for something that is only slightly more serious than seasonal flu.

Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: DrJohn on February 13, 2020, 12:13:44 PM
  • "Out of an abundance of caution", in case it's worse than it seems.  (Consistent with initial data, which were pretty alarming.)
  • Practice for the next virus, in case that one is worse.
  • Saving face, not looking like the world's central supplier of respiratory diseases like they did with the SARS coronavirus.
  • They already have a police state, they might as well use it for something.
  • Incompetence and poor communication.

Well, number 5 is always on the table, the rest maybe a bit of a reach.  I think that we still need to see how the virus behaves outside of China to really decided what is what.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on February 13, 2020, 05:37:04 PM
WaPo:  Most coronavirus cases are mild, complicating the response (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/most-coronavirus-cases-are-mild-complicating-efforts-to-respond/2020/02/12/213603a4-4dc2-11ea-bf44-f5043eb3918a_story.html)


The thing is that 3 out of 13 people,  the first wave of USA patients, that is first a large percentage, 3/13 is 23% , and second, it seems that the illness starts out mild and it gets much worse ( if it is going to get worse)  after a week or more -- so it seems premature to talk about how many get serious symptoms.  ( the 3 out of the first number, 13 cases, that I am referring to are teh case in Washington state and the 2 in california moved to hospital in San Francisco.  I have not heard much about the other early cases yet...)

On the other hand, we have many things on our side that would make it less likely for as many people to get serious complications here.  First, we are more likely to have heating.  The part of China where the outbreak started, in general there is not heating in the apartments, it is not provided in the apartment blocks.  If you look at photos/videos of their new mass quarantine rows of beds places ( "hospitals" built in a week) the workers are walking around in insulated coats, so looks like no heat in at least that facility.  Second,  2/3 of Chinese men smoke, and most of those smoke heavily ( very few women smoke) in addition to much more air pollution in those cities than here.  We may also have a cleaner food supply, sewage treatment ( ?) etc....  We may have differences in our healthcare facilities and the care able to provide to a larger proportion of patients ( dont know, but sounds plausible)
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on February 13, 2020, 06:22:37 PM
Data from Singapore today says they have 58 cases and 8 are critical, so that is 8/58 which is .13ish, so around 13%
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: antsyaunt on February 13, 2020, 06:55:42 PM
This is interesting.  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-vows-put-end-lab-leakage-pathogenic-samples
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 14, 2020, 12:18:05 AM
CNN:  CDC director: Novel coronavirus 'is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year' (https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield-gupta-intv/index.html)

Quote
"Right now we're in an aggressive containment mode," CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told CNN's Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in an interview on Thursday.
"We don't know a lot about this virus," he said. "This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission."

Quote
"Frankly, some people criticized when we decided that we wanted to temporarily suspend travel into the United States from individuals who were not Americans or permanent residents who had been in the hot zone in the last 14 days. Some people didn't think that that was what they would do," Redfield told Gupta on Thursday.
"Well, we felt very strongly that our obligation was to do all we can to protect the American public," Redfield said. "I would rather be criticized for over-protecting America than under-protecting America at this stage."

Quote
"There's been good communication with our colleagues to confirm asymptomatic infection, to confirm asymptomatic transmission, to be able to get a better handle on the clinical spectrum of illness in China. What we don't know though is how much of the asymptomatic cases are driving transmission," Redfield said.
"What I've learned in the last two weeks is that the spectrum of this illness is much broader than was originally presented. There's much more asymptomatic illness," Redfield said. "A number of the confirmed cases that we confirmed actually just presented with a little sore throat."

Quote
Meanwhile, Redfield said that the CDC has been eager to help China in its efforts to fight this outbreak. Nearly six weeks after the CDC first offered to help China with the coronavirus outbreak, the offer still has not been accepted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 14, 2020, 12:41:40 AM
NYT:  China Expands Chaotic Dragnet in Coronavirus Crackdown (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/13china-coronavirus-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
China’s leaders expanded a mass roundup of people possibly sickened with the coronavirus on Thursday, widening their dragnet well beyond the epicenter of the outbreak to at least two more cities in what the government has called a “wartime” campaign to stamp out the epidemic.

But the campaign, first announced last week in the city of Wuhan, already has been marred by chaotic conditions that have isolated vulnerable patients without adequate care and, in some cases, left them alone to die.

The expansion of the decree to “round up everyone who should be rounded up” in the Wuhan area of central China has deepened the nation’s sense of anxiety.

In their zeal to execute the edict, officials in Wuhan, a metropolis of 11 million, have haphazardly seized patients who have not yet tested positive for the coronavirus, in some cases herding them onto buses with no protective measures where they risked infection from others, their relatives said.

Quote
Deng Chao, 30, said that although doctors had told him he almost certainly had the coronavirus, he hadn’t yet received the official results from the test that is needed for hospital admission.

Instead he was sent to a Wuhan hotel where he has been in a government-imposed quarantine for nearly a week. Now, he said, he was getting progressively sicker and finding it more difficult to breathe. He said security guards had been stationed at the hotel entrance to prevent patients from escaping — and there were no doctors or medicine.

“This is really like a prison,” Mr. Deng said.

“Send me to a hospital, please, I need treatment,“ he said, in between bouts of coughing. “There is no one to take care of us here.”

Quote
Peng Bangze, whose father was sent on a crowded bus to a converted hotel for isolation, recalled visiting last Saturday, after his father had been unreachable all day.

He found his father in a comatose state alone in his room.

Panicked, he called for help. When the ambulance came, both the driver and the hotel security guard refused to help him move his father, a construction worker, into the vehicle for fear of getting infected, the son said. One hour later, the son was told that the hospital had no bed for his father and that he should go home and wait.

Two days — and many phone calls — later, Mr. Peng’s relatives finally received a call from the local government notifying them that a hospital bed had been arranged. But when Mr. Peng’s son arrived at the hotel to help with the transfer, his father was lying face down on the bed, lifeless, in the same position he had left him.

The workers at the isolation venue had no explanation. They disinfected the room, the father’s body was removed for cremation, and the son collected his belongings.


What the hell? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: bigbear on February 14, 2020, 07:57:16 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/14/business/wuhan-coronavirus-journalists.html 

Or if you can't get beyond that pay wall...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51486106

Two journalists have mysteriously gone silent.  Many are pointing to censorship.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 14, 2020, 09:03:24 AM
Radio reports are that Mexico is entering panic mode.  A university doctor from a Mexican border town who went to help in Wuhan came down with symproms after returning.  He used Uber so uber has suspended all drivers and passengers from there who may have been in contact with his uber driver (approximately 250 people).  People reportedly left that city.in droves which heighten fears it could spread if any were already infected. This apparently was a couple weeks ago and people are just now getting full story.  Doctor apparently was cleared (saying it was a cold) but new cases have popped up.  So people arent sure to believe that or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 14, 2020, 09:21:40 AM
https://sf.eater.com/platform/amp/2020/2/12/21135104/novel-coronavirus-chinatown-oakland-san-francisco (https://sf.eater.com/platform/amp/2020/2/12/21135104/novel-coronavirus-chinatown-oakland-san-francisco)
Novel Coronavirus Fears Cut Chinatown Restaurant Business by 50 Percent

Restaurants in Oakland and San Francisco Chinatowns say their business has been slashed by 50 percent or more, a decrease caused by the one-two punch of novel coronavirus panic and a precipitous drop in tourism from China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 14, 2020, 09:31:49 AM
Something has to give. You can't tell data driven people that simultaneously Chinese are stacking bodies like chordwood (sorry to be vulgar) but Americans aren't even requiring medicine. Nothing about this story makes sense and the only rational honest source seems to be our CDC who I normally critique for bad statistics.

Was this some kind of experiment gone wrong? I don't know. I do know the Chinese still have forced labor camps where they do organ harvesting and slice bodies into pieces so very mentally ill Americans can go look at human organs as entertainment.

The economics are another mess. I read that the Chinese have revised their growth from 6% to 2% but my best guess from data I read is -9%. In the world of economics that's a giant lie.

And the Chinese aren't afraid of "a few broken eggs" (sorry for the vulgarity again) so to see them scramble for hospitals is a little alarming.

What makes me a little weirded out is that I can't figure out what is really going on. The best data I have are the American published stories which makes this look benign. But China looks to be having a Chernobyl event that just keeps killing. They shut down a train hub in the middle of the world's biggest manufacturing country.

Something here smells fishy. I wish I could find what I'm looking for. 'll try to get the economic impact stuff (that's my wheelhouse) but man do I feel for the victms who are at best being mistreated by the Chinese medical system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on February 14, 2020, 09:42:28 AM
Something has to give. You can't tell data driven people that simultaneously Chinese are stacking bodies like chordwood (sorry to be vulgar) but Americans aren't even requiring medicine. Nothing about this story makes sense and the only rational honest source seems to be our CDC who I normally critique for bad statistics.

Was this some kind of experiment gone wrong? I don't know. I do know the Chinese still have forced labor camps where they do organ harvesting and slice bodies into pieces so very mentally ill Americans can go look at human organs as entertainment.

The economics are another mess. I read that the Chinese have revised their growth from 6% to 2% but my best guess from data I read is -9%. In the world of economics that's a giant lie.

And the Chinese aren't afraid of "a few broken eggs" (sorry for the vulgarity again) so to see them scramble for hospitals is a little alarming.

What makes me a little weirded out is that I can't figure out what is really going on. The best data I have are the American published stories which makes this look benign. But China looks to be having a Chernobyl event that just keeps killing. They shut down a train hub in the middle of the world's biggest manufacturing country.

Something here smells fishy. I wish I could find what I'm looking for. 'll try to get the economic impact stuff (that's my wheelhouse) but man do I feel for the victms who are at best being mistreated by the Chinese medical system.

I feel like your fangirl on this thread.  I am not a conspiracy theorist, but when things don't make sense, they don't make sense.  And my mind is struggling to make sense of all the conflicting reports I hear added to the things I know about China.  Add in all the crazy stories coming from "citizen journalists" there, and it REALLY just doesn't add up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on February 14, 2020, 10:06:04 AM
I have family on the ground in Laos and they are alarmed. I suspect this is being used by the Chinese to weed out dissidents, but I agree it is overall very shady, from a Communist country, duh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: antsyaunt on February 14, 2020, 10:56:12 AM
I feel like your fangirl on this thread.  I am not a conspiracy theorist, but when things don't make sense, they don't make sense.  And my mind is struggling to make sense of all the conflicting reports I hear added to the things I know about China.  Add in all the crazy stories coming from "citizen journalists" there, and it REALLY just doesn't add up.
I agree.  Vietnam is now enacting  a quarantine?  For 20 days?  There is an awful lot of conflicting information out there.  https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1856784/vietnam-quarantines-area-with-10-000-residents-over-coronavirus 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 14, 2020, 11:24:46 AM
I feel like your fangirl on this thread.  I am not a conspiracy theorist, but when things don't make sense, they don't make sense.  And my mind is struggling to make sense of all the conflicting reports I hear added to the things I know about China.  Add in all the crazy stories coming from "citizen journalists" there, and it REALLY just doesn't add up.

Very kind. I do find this very disturbing because the metrics don't make sense. I have been called cold and calculating in my life but the core of any maths problem is knowing the metric. If I'm looking at a stress/strain curve in engineering or a  same store sales metric for a burger chain I have something useful.

The core problem here in my mind is politics. The Chinese are clearly underplaying the impact to salvage their economy and the residents of Hong Kong are playing it up because it aligns with their cause. I don't know how to use the "my relative got locked in a hotel" as any kind of metric.

So the only thing I have as a macro are 2 stories. One is the US CDC which seems to say this is the common flu. Deadly to the very young and very old but that's life. The other is kind of a whackadoodle thing about massive contagion spreading everywhere and wiping out everyone in its path. So there is something I don't know. And I'm playing in my least favorite quadrant "I don't know what I don't know".

I'm hoping reputable countries will start presenting data. As other SE Asian countries, EU, and N/S American countries seem to be getting into it the understanding may be possible. I'm also very watchful on Africa because plague tends to go off the rails there.

But I do feel something is off. The Chinese have clearly lied about this. That might not even mean anything. I'm also aware that nothing happens in a vacuum and somebody made millions going long on entertainment and shorting cruise lines. Something bigger happened here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on February 14, 2020, 01:56:09 PM
I have very close family members heading into Mexico City tomorrow for a week, I will ask when they return if they felt any differences in mood and how things are being done there due to this. 

Rant:
 I cannot convince a couple of the young folks to just go to dollar store and spend $4 to buy  2 packs of pocket sized hand sanitizer and 2 quarts of hydrogen peroxide...... Seems silly to buy and mail it to them, but, maybe I buy now and mail it to them later when they cant get it on the shelf.  The smallest bit of preparedness is not panic or being scared, I'm certainly not either, but small bits of preparedness is prudent... makes me wonder where I went wrong.... Likely it wont be needed, sure, at least not right away, but it will keep until next fall.  But, if someone in the household gets sick, with anything you dont want to catch, why not be able to sanitize a couple hard surfaces ? If you never need to in the next year, it can be rotated out, pour some into a toilet bowl overnight to clean.... ( no, they dont own chlorine bleach either, the hydrogen peroxide should have been an easier sell) So the MSM sell is working on the general public in the USA, so far
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on February 15, 2020, 04:09:54 AM
The question I keep asking myself: Why would China do what they are doing unless this is way more serious than they are letting on?  This is affecting their economy and the stability of the CCP.  It seems like a foolish tact for something that is only slightly more serious than seasonal flu.

Mao killed 80 million people and was considered a hero, soviets killed many people. The elites have said there are too many people, bill gates said we need to reduce the population. Oddly enough he said it in the context of vaccinations which you almost have to ask “did I hear that right?”

 In the long run have wars in the Middle East helped our economy? No it only helps certain people or it helps certain people accomplish what they want to accomplish.

Most likely it will help elites all over the world to promote mandatory vaccinations and they can have a good excuse for martial law type events.

Many details about AIDS where never even close to being truthful. The truth about pyschiatric drugs is never told and many similar things
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 15, 2020, 04:12:13 PM
Wow the paranoia is getting big. After doing a big homemade dinner last night we got takeout a little early today to have a relaxing evening we don't have to clean up after.

The young lady who served me asked if I have coronavirus after I blew my nose. It's been below 0 for 2 days and my nose is runny. She covered her mouth to talk to me.

It's gotten a little nuts. But a Vietnamese takeout isn't the locale to debate disease data. Just wish common sense had a place these days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on February 15, 2020, 04:25:18 PM
maybe I am a bit snotty, but my first reaction would have been to look at her innocently and say "I don't drink beer, Corona or otherwise."

I actually would not say that to a stranger, but I would have thought it  :-[
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on February 15, 2020, 10:01:47 PM
Quote
She covered her mouth to talk to me.
But not enough to keep you from hearing her.

But there is a more serious issue here; can one be charged with a crime for sneezing in public? If you had a cold or the flu and you knew you had it and went in public and expelled germs/viruses via sneezing, coughing or a handshake after wiping off a drippy nose, could that be considered a crime? I'm going to have to say it might be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 16, 2020, 06:29:02 AM
When to hunker down vs. bug out can be a tough choice.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/quarantined-diamond-princess-passenger-speaks-out-against-us-coronavirus-evacuation-plan.amp (https://www.foxnews.com/health/quarantined-diamond-princess-passenger-speaks-out-against-us-coronavirus-evacuation-plan.amp)
Quarantined cruise ship passenger speaks out against US coronavirus evacuation plan

https://youtu.be/f3dU8VF-vW4 (https://youtu.be/f3dU8VF-vW4)
Quarantine cruise passengers battle disease and boredom
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 16, 2020, 07:56:11 AM
Ugh.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/02/16/were-in-limbo-metro-detroit-family-stranded-in-cambodia-amid-coronavirus-concerns/ (https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/02/16/were-in-limbo-metro-detroit-family-stranded-in-cambodia-amid-coronavirus-concerns/)
‘We’re in limbo’ -- Metro Detroit family stranded in Cambodia amid coronavirus concerns.

After being rejected by five countries, the passengers on the Holland America cruise ship can finally experience some relief -- briefly.

The cruise ship finally docked in Cambodia. Passengers were let off the ship and -- according to Michigan-native Steve Muth -- it was a celebration.

“We had the prime minister of Cambodia here," Muth said. "Big ceremony, flew in on helicopter, a lot of cheering and hooplah.”

It didn’t last long though.

“Allegedly, supposedly, somebody -- I believe an 83-year-old American woman -- came down with the illness sometime after leaving the ship," Muth said.

Now they’re all holed up in a hotel room, unable to leave Cambodia.

“We’re in limbo, man," Muth said. "Right now, we don’t know where we’re going to be or how we’re getting home.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 16, 2020, 09:14:33 AM
Survivors are reporting mild flu like symptoms. Americans and Japanese recover well unless very old or very young or already compromised like any seasonal flu.

What is going on in China? Are we seeing an immuno-compromised society due to air pollution? Is there a genetic impact of this disease? Are we merely witnessing a society totally unprepared for a viral event?

The scary metric of corona isn't getting the disease; it's being in China. For the mortality rate to be radically different depending on what patch of grass you're standing on means there is a lurking variable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 16, 2020, 10:04:18 AM
Survivors are reporting mild flu like symptoms. Americans and Japanese recover well unless very old or very young or already compromised like any seasonal flu.

What is going on in China? Are we seeing an immuno-compromised society due to air pollution? Is there a genetic impact of this disease? Are we merely witnessing a society totally unprepared for a viral event?

There have been Japanese and American deaths as well as one from Taiwan.  It is about 1 in 20 to 30 for Americans so far. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 16, 2020, 10:31:12 AM
There have been Japanese and American deaths as well as one from Taiwan.  It is about 1 in 20 to 30 for Americans so far.

Yeah but consider the sample. The sort who do international travel and frequent cruise ships are... older. So you have a high hit in the most vulnerable population. That's not representative of the population as a whole.

I'm not making any claim. But the data is skewed to me that we need to have a look at why this is a death sentence in China but most people outside bounce back. Something here is wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 16, 2020, 05:25:07 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/11/coronavirus-evacuee-san-diego-released (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/11/coronavirus-evacuee-san-diego-released)
U.S. coronavirus patient was mistakenly discharged from hospital because of lab error, CDC says
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 17, 2020, 02:50:38 AM
I've been trying to find CDC data on the current Covid-19 lab testing sensitivity and specificity but haven't been able to find anything.  The closest thing I could find was this Medium article:  Bayes’ Rule, Decision Making, And Containing COVID-19 With Unreliable Diagnostic Tests (https://towardsdatascience.com/statistics-and-unreliable-tests-coronavirus-is-difficult-to-contain-e113b5c0967c). 

Quote
Do tests even add any valuable information in Wuhan patients?

For a 40% sensitive, 90% specific test, we just saw that it takes 8 consecutive negative results to reduce a 50% probability of infection to less than 5% (where very low probabilities are required to reduce the risk of contagion). We also saw that it takes 2 consecutive negative results to reduce 8% to less than 5%. What is the probability of a person in Wuhan being infected, if they:

    Have already shown signs in a CT scan? (surely >50% probability?)
    Have a cough/fever? (surely >8% probability?)
    Are related to someone who has been infected?
    Have entered any hospital?

It seems like testing for the purposes of ruling out infection is not a feasible solution in an active outbreak zone. There are simply not enough resources to test everyone multiple times.

This may partially explain why…… Authorities have already implemented large-scale containment measures — they assume that everyone is, or will be infected.


I'm not sure how close his estimates on the sensitivity and specificity are (40% sensitivity is terrible), but he is spot on in his explanation of how the statistical reliability of any medical test factors into the diagnostic process (at least it's consistent with what I was taught).  Even with tests that are both highly sensitive and specific you still wind up chasing down many false positives if they're not targeted toward the populations with higher probability or prevalence of disease (but good luck trying to explain that to another physician, let alone the soccer mom from Orange County).  Or worse, as in the case of Covid19, if you wind up with test conditions that carry a very high probability of releasing false-negatives (people who actually are infected) into the general population so they can spread the novel virus to others. 

His estimate of needing to perform 8 serial tests to get to a 95% confidence level for Covid19 confirmations kind of gives you an idea of the challenges facing public health systems with limited resources.  And it also helps to explain why the leap to harsh methods like quarantine has some grim logic behind it, as well as why China decided to ease off the original case definition to include CT evidence of pneumonia without lab confirmation.  Extraordinary circumstances call for extraordinary measures.



He's got another one:  The Reported Mortality Rate of Coronavirus Is Not Important (https://medium.com/swlh/the-reported-mortality-rate-of-coronavirus-is-not-important-369989c8d912)

Quote
Low Case-Fatality Rates Are Only Possible Because Of Modern Healthcare Services — What If We Lose These?

We know that case-fatality depends on access to healthcare services. This would be especially true for coronaviruses. But what would happen if the outbreak became too widespread, causing hospitals to run out of capacity and leaving people without access to healthcare services?

To see how we would fare without access to modern healthcare services, we look to the past. Spanish flu had no treatment at the time of outbreak in 1918, and it ended up causing at least 50 million deaths in the world with a case-fatality rate exceeding 2.5%. If SARS and MERS only achieved 10% and 34% with modern healthcare, then we could imagine it being far worse without it. Since the novel coronavirus produces similar symptoms and requires similar treatment, we may have a catastrophic situation if the outbreak strains healthcare resources, and thus, prevents additional patients from being admitted to hospitals.
The Availability of Resources — Where Is The Breaking Point?

Most of the figures we have now apply to Wuhan and Hubei. Hubei, the province of Wuhan, is economically in the top half of China’s provinces. Their healthcare system is decent, with 2.17 physicians and 5.46 hospital beds per 1000 people (from the 2015 China Health Statistics Year book). These numbers have probably grown since then. Wuhan, a city of 11 million, is one of 15 “new tier-1” cities, and according to a local government report in 2014, Wuhan had 6.51 hospital beds and 3.08 doctors per 1,000 people. Was this enough?


I think he's probably right.  If this new virus causes enough infections to overload our medical capacity to care for severe cases, we won't be seeing low single digit fatality percentages either.  China's major cities probably beat many Western countries in terms of medical capacity, although rural medical capacity in many parts of the US is already at crisis levels, so we better hope we can keep the epidemic at bay in North America for a year or so and hope for a vaccine.


It really sucks having to make the big decisions on how to fight a growing epidemic when you don't fully understand it or have the proper tools developed to combat a new virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 17, 2020, 03:07:07 AM
NYT:  American learned evacuees were infected shortly before boarding a chartered flight.  (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html)

Quote
“During the evacuation process, after passengers had disembarked the ship and initiated transport to the airport, U.S. officials received notice that 14 passengers, who had been tested 2-3 days earlier, had tested positive for COVID-19,” the State Department and Department of Health and Human Services said in a joint statement, referring to the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

The 14 infected passengers were moved into a specialized containment area on the evacuation aircraft, where they were to be isolated and monitored. They had been found to be asymptomatic and “fit to fly” before the evacuation, according to the statement.

So we're they false positives?  Asymptomatic true positives capable of shedding virus particles? 

Who knows? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 17, 2020, 06:25:23 AM
The cruise ship evacuees have landed in the US, with their 14 new positives almost doubling Covid19 cases to 29.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 17, 2020, 08:50:06 AM
The Chinese are into money laundering.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/coronavirus-china-disinfects-cash-in-a-bid-to-stop-virus-spreading.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/coronavirus-china-disinfects-cash-in-a-bid-to-stop-virus-spreading.html)
China is sterilizing cash in an attempt to stop the coronavirus spreading

Banks across the country had been told to withdraw potentially infected cash from circulation and disinfect it using either ultraviolet or heat treatments, the government’s State Council told reporters. Decontaminated cash would then be stored for seven to 14 days before it could be returned to the market.

Money removed from high-risk sites such as hospitals and markets would be sealed and specially treated, but it would then be held by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) instead of re-entering circulation, officials said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 17, 2020, 04:04:19 PM
Several articles about Traditional Chinese Medicine ("TCM") and its use against coronavirus:


Foreign Policy, editorial by James Palmer, 2/3/20: Chinese Media Is Selling Snake Oil to Fight the Wuhan Virus (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/tcm-shuanghuanglian-pseudoscience-chinese-media-is-selling-snake-oil-to-fight-the-wuhan-virus/)

Quote
As the new coronavirus continued its march across China this weekend, Xinhua, the nation’s official news service, advised a worried public to turn to herbal medicine. Shuanghuanglian, an oral remedy, sold out in stores across the country. The impetus for the Xinhua article came from a study supposedly conducted by two institutions, the Shanghai Institute of Materia Medica and the Wuhan Institute of Virology, using the principles of what the state calls traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), a major part of the Chinese medical system. State-backed TCM doesn’t include all traditional medical practices, it’s a very specific, state-backed set of treatments, theories, and drugs, many of which were invented in the 20th century.

Skeptics immediately criticized the advice, and the backlash to the initial Xinhua report led other parts of state media to play down the medicine’s magical properties. The popular medical site dxy.cn, which has become a go-to resource for information about the virus, also debunked the claims. ...

Shuanghuanglian is a mixture of honeysuckle, Chinese skullcap, and forsythia. Like many so-called traditional Chinese medicines, it was in fact invented in the 1960s, based on a mixture of the fictional humoral theories that underpin pre-modern Chinese medical theories and the herbology accumulated by Chinese medical practitioners over centuries. As with most such practices, the clinical evidence is highly inconclusive; there is some suggestion shuanghuanglian may aid in respiratory tract illnesses, but there is no evidence it can achieve success in the treatment of bacterial and viral infections, especially at scale. (Allergic reactions are also common in traditional medicine, despite regular claims by advocates that they are impossible; shuanghuanglian is no exception.)

TCM is big business. Modern practice is not a matter of herbalists and amateur doctors but industrialized pharmaceuticals—a $45 billion market in China annually just for such drugs. The industry in China is not alternative medicine but a thoroughly conventional and heavily government-backed business. ...

The industry has seen a renewed push under Chinese President Xi Jinping, always keen to emphasize historical nationalism. ... Xi’s past praise means that such practices have to be given a place in treating the virus, regardless of their usefulness or practicality, because of their institutional weight. ...


South China Morning Post, 2/6/20: ‘I must be on the front line’ of coronavirus epidemic,’ China’s bodybuilding traditional Chinese medicine doctor says (https://www.scmp.com/sport/china/article/3049196/ill-fight-coronavirus-pandemic-says-china-bodybuilding-doctor-yuan)

Quote
...Yuan Herong is probably China’s most popular bodybuilder at the moment, and it’s not only because of her ripped and massive frame that complements her doll-like features, but because she also practises traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and works in a clinic in China. ...

“I’m a doctor. I must [be] on the front line. [I will] do my best to help the epidemic,” said the 30-year-old Qingdao-born Yuan in her latest Instagram post. ...

“171 cases of new pneumonia were cured and 15,238 suspected cases were found. The healers are all treated through traditional Chinese medicine and other symptomatic treatment. We will try our best to do a good job in prevention and treatment,” she said last week on Instagram. ...


PTI, 2/15/20: More than half of coronavirus cases in Hubei treated with traditional Chinese medicine: Official (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/more-than-half-of-coronavirus-cases-in-hubei-treated-with-traditional-chinese-medicine-official/articleshow/74148933.cms)

Quote
..."Since the beginning of the outbreak, the government has attached importance to both Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and Western medicine by mobilising the strongest scientific research and medical forces in both fields to treat the patients," Wang Hesheng, deputy head of China's National Health Commission, said.

Wang said that TCM has been applied in treating more than half of the confirmed patients of novel coronavirus infection in the country's Hubei province. ...

"TCM has also been used in the prevention and control of COVID-19 at the community level," Wang said. ...


CCN, editorial by William Ebbs, 2/16/20: China Exploits Coronavirus to Promote Dubious Traditional Remedies (https://www.ccn.com/china-exploits-coronavirus-to-promote-dubious-traditional-remedies/)

Quote
...Beijing may be exploiting the coronavirus crisis as an opportunity to bolster the multi-billion dollar market for traditional Chinese remedies.

China’s central government has sacked local officials and taken control of the healthcare administration in the hard-hit Hubei province. ...

The government is sending 2,200 more TCM workers to Hubei. They’re tasked with helping the province’s strained healthcare system deal with the coronavirus crisis.

Of the 56,249 confirmed coronavirus cases in Hubei, 1,596 have died, giving the virus a 2.84% fatality rate in the province. This is compared to a 0.9% fatality rate in nearby Chongqing and a 0.3% fatality rate in Hunan.

It is unclear what role, if any, TCM plays in the disparity between fatality rates in different Chinese provinces. But the limited data points aren’t encouraging. ...

To make matters even worse, there’s speculation that demand for traditional Chinese medicine may have caused the coronavirus outbreak in the first place.

TCM practitioners believe pangolin scales have medicinal value. And this has led to a flourishing – and illegal – trade of the endangered mammal.

Chinese researchers believe they have isolated a virus 99% similar to the Wuhan coronavirus. This virus is currently embedded in the wild pangolin population. ...


More about the possible pangolin connection:
Nature, 2/7/20: Did pangolins spread the China coronavirus to people? (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00364-2)

Quote
Researchers in Guangzhou, China, have suggested that pangolins — long-snouted, ant-eating mammals often used in traditional Chinese medicine — are the probable animal source of the coronavirus outbreak...

Scientists say that the suggestion, based on a genetic analysis, seems plausible — but caution that the researchers’ work is yet to be published in full. ...

...the South China Agricultural University in Guangzhou says that two of its researchers, Shen Yongyi and Xiao Lihua, have identified the pangolin as the potential source of nCoV-2019 on the basis of a genetic comparison of coronaviruses taken from the animals and from humans infected in the outbreak and other findings. The sequences are 99% similar, the researchers reported at press conference on 7 February. ...

Even before today’s announcement, pangolins were a good candidate for being an intermediate species for the virus, so it’s very interesting that the researchers have found such a close sequence...

The coronavirus emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December, and is thought to have leapt to humans at a seafood and wild-animal market, where many of the first people to become infected worked. Pangolins were not listed on an inventory of items sold at the market — although the illegality of trading pangolins could explain this omission. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 18, 2020, 03:51:59 PM
China CDC Weekly:  Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020 (http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51)

Quote
Results: A total of 72,314 patient records—44,672 (61.8%) confirmed cases, 16,186 (22.4%) suspected cases, 10,567 (14.6%) clinically diagnosed cases (Hubei Province only), and 889 asymptomatic cases (1.2%)—contributed data for the analysis. Among confirmed cases, most were aged 30–79 years (86.6%), diagnosed in Hubei (74.7%), and considered mild (80.9%). A total of 1,023 deaths occurred among confirmed cases for an overall case fatality rate of 2.3%. The COVID-19 spread outward from Hubei Province sometime after December 2019, and by February 11, 2020, 1,386 counties across all 31 provinces were affected. The epidemic curve of onset of symptoms peaked around January 23–26, then began to decline leading up to February 11. A total of 1,716 health workers have become infected and 5 have died (0.3%).

Quote
The ≥80 age group had the highest case fatality rate of all age groups at 14.8%.

Quote
A major contribution of our study is a first description of the COVID-19 epidemic curves. We interpret the overall curve (Figure 3A) as having a mixed outbreak pattern—the data appear to indicate a continuous common source pattern of spread in December and then from early January through February 11, 2020, the data appear to have a propagated source pattern. This mixed outbreak time trend is consistent with the working theory that perhaps several zoonotic events occurred at Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan allowed 2019-nCoV to be transmitted from a still-unknown animal into humans and, due to its high mutation and recombination rates, it adapted to become capable of and then increasingly efficient at human-to-human transmission (3,8).

Quote
To date, there is no evidence of a super-spreader event occurring in any of the Chinese health facilities serving COVID-19 patients. However, we do not know whether this is due to the nature of the virus itself or whether these events have been successfully prevented.

Quote
China’s response is certainly an echo of lessons learned during SARS and is a tribute to the work China and other low- and middle-income countries have been doing, with the much-needed help of international partners, over the past few decades to build infectious disease surveillance systems and public health infrastructure capable of catching outbreaks early and responding swiftly using evidence-based best practices. The 2019-nCoV and other coronaviruses may continue to adapt over time to become more virulent (3), and zoonosis is not going to stop. We must remain vigilant, hone our skills, fund our defenses, and practice our responses, and we must help our neighbors to do the same.

Quote
The massive vigorous actions taken by the Chinese government have slowed down the epidemic in China and curbed spread to the rest of the world. Although the epidemic appears to be in decline in the lead up to February 11, 2020, we may yet face more challenges. Huge numbers of people will soon be returning to work and school after the extended New Year holiday. We need to prepare for a possible rebound of the COVID-19 epidemic in the coming weeks and months.


Looking at Table 1 it's obvious this infection is not killing young people, as there are only a total of 8 deaths recorded in those under age 30, with 0 deaths under age 10 and only 1 death under age 20.  That's got to be a bit of good news for the world's educational facilities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: bigbear on February 19, 2020, 09:44:35 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51558310

China has expelled 5 journalists, 3 of them WSJ writers.
Quote
China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said the article was "racist" and "denigrated" China's efforts to combat the outbreak that has killed more than 2,000 people in the country.

It seems that the journalists expelled did not write the opinion piece in question.  Maybe just an opportunistic time to get them out of the country.
Quote
The newspaper said the journalists - who had not written the opinion piece - were given five days to leave China.
  (emphasis mine)

Josh Chin - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/josh-chin
Quote
Josh Chin is a politics reporter in The Wall Street Journal's Beijing bureau, where he covers cybersecurity, law, human rights, media and other topics. Find him on Twitter: @joshchin.

His Twitter feed is interesting.
https://twitter.com/joshchin?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Chao Deng - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/chao-deng
Quote
Chao Deng is based in Beijing, where she writes about the Chinese economy, finance and trade. She previously covered markets and other financial topics from Shanghai and Hong Kong. You can email her at chao.deng@wsj.com and follow her on Twitter @chao_deng.

Philip Wen - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/philip-wen
Quote
Philip covers politics for The Wall Street Journal, based in Beijing. He previously worked for Reuters and before that was China Correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. Hailing from Melbourne, Philip was a qualified chartered accountant at an international advisory firm before pursuing a career in journalism.
https://twitter.com/philipwen11?lang=en
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 19, 2020, 02:39:45 PM
Looks like the bug-out was a better option than the bug-in for this case.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/19/807418497/coronavirus-update-diamond-princess-passengers-leave-ship-as-expert-slams-quaran (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/19/807418497/coronavirus-update-diamond-princess-passengers-leave-ship-as-expert-slams-quaran)

Coronavirus Update: Diamond Princess Passengers Leave Ship As Expert Slams Quarantine

The quarantine has been heavily criticized for failing to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 among passengers and crew. Even as hundred of people disembarked, Japanese officials announced 79 more confirmed cases aboard the ship. And in at least one case, a family was informed of a positive test result just hours before they were scheduled to disembark.

A total of 621 people from the cruise ship have now been confirmed to have the newly identified coronavirus — or about 20% of the 3,011 people who had been tested as of Wednesday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on February 19, 2020, 02:49:39 PM
Quote
Looks like the bug-out was a better option than the bug-in for this case.
..to be expected...
in fact any quarantine protects the outsiders of.
And seclusion works for those that are diagnosed.
Aboard that ship the sick and the healthy breathed the same air, and ate from the same kitchen, What should we expect?
Title: Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 19, 2020, 03:40:16 PM
..to be expected...
in fact any quarantine protects the outsiders of.
And seclusion works for those that are diagnosed.
Aboard that ship the sick and the healthy breathed the same air, and ate from the same kitchen, What should we expect?

Well, it seemed split among passengers; at least as presented in media.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-02-13/fear-boredom-adventure-fill-each-day-on-quarantined-ship (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-02-13/fear-boredom-adventure-fill-each-day-on-quarantined-ship)
Life on a quarantined cruise ship: fear, boredom, occasional fun

Even during the quarantine, it can seem like Cheryl and Paul Molesky are still on vacation.

The couple from Syracuse, N.Y., can be seen in their YouTube videos lounging, often in plush bathrobes, on their balcony, enjoying the sweeping views of a glittering, sun-streaked ocean and, on occasion, snow-capped Mt. Fuji.

“We try to have an upbeat presentation and make sure that our attitude comes across that, we’re not hurt, we’re not in pain ... we’re actually just enjoying ourselves,” Paul Molesky, a 78-year-old potter, said in an interview. “It’s been very nice.”

There was the time a man came to the docks in a Spider-Man costume and played music for an hour and a half to the delight of the passengers
...
“Now that we’re here in quarantine we’re getting so much attention. We never get that much attention at home,” said 59-year-old Cheryl, a retired art and media teacher.
...
“We are scared. We appeal to the Indian government and the United Nations to help us, segregate us urgently,” a man identified as crew member Binay Kumar Sarkar says after removing his mask. “We should be rescued immediately and reunited with our families before it is too late.”



Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 21, 2020, 12:02:38 PM
NPR, 2/21/20: Restrictions And Rewards: How China Is Locking Down Half A Billion Citizens (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/21/806958341/restrictions-and-rewards-how-china-is-locking-down-half-a-million-citizens)

Quote
China has put more than half a billion people under partial or total lockdown in what it is calling an all-out "people's war" against the spread of the new coronavirus. It's equivalent to restricting the movement of the entire population of North America. ...

Lockdown measures have been most severe in Hubei province, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak with nearly three-fourths of the 75,000-plus confirmed cases (as of Thursday) in China. ...

On Sunday, the Hubei government ordered community officials to began enforcing "the strictest, around-the-clock, closed management" of all residential complexes, banning the private use of cars, forbidding residents from leaving their apartments without permission and requiring purchasers of cold medicine to disclose their temperature, address and identification number at the pharmacy. To further cut down on people's needs to leave their houses, many community officials are now buying and delivering groceries and medication for the residents in their jurisdiction.

The majority of China, which faces a lower density of coronavirus cases, has far less extreme controls.

Many cities have utilized a monitoring scheme in which large neighborhoods are broken down into smaller gridlike units responsible for enforcing regulations. The method traces back to the way social order was maintained in Imperial China.

Community officials — a mix of paid employees and volunteers, mostly retirees — tightly monitor activity such as going out or visiting other residential complexes. They can call the local police for backup if anyone refuses to cooperate with temperature checks or quarantine orders.

These officials, known as grid workers, are supposed to screen each person's temperature as they enter the complex — echoing the rules in Wuhan — and note whether they've recently left the city. ...

In addition to enlisting grid workers, local officials are rewarding anyone who reports neighbors and friends for attending social gatherings or refusing to quarantine themselves after traveling. A person who disobeys these rules may be subjected to detention and fines for disrupting social order, a charge punishable under China's administrative law. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on February 21, 2020, 02:46:37 PM
We had civil defense block wardens when I was a kid, maybe those will be revived.
How could the U.S. be locked down?
Every major city is surrounded by an interstate belt. Many of the exit and entry ramps have arm blockades, which if activated could lock down a city.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 21, 2020, 09:01:01 PM
Ugh.  Why would they think it was ok to put those testing positive on the same plane as the uninfected?  Makes no sense.  I understand evacuating them but it should have been on separate plane flight regardless of isolation unit.  It is risky decisions like this which destroys public confidence.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/484157-trump-furious-after-officials-allowed-americans-with-coronavirus-to (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/484157-trump-furious-after-officials-allowed-americans-with-coronavirus-to)
Trump furious after officials allowed Americans with coronavirus to fly home with other passengers: report

Trump and his coronavirus task force were told last weekend that Americans who had been in quarantine on the Diamond Princess cruise liner, where the virus had spread, would be brought home, but that those who had symptoms would remain in Japan
...
Administration officials told The Washington Post that Trump learned of the reversal after the fact and was furious that he was not first consulted, reportedly fearing the move could affect the government's handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

The 14 Americans who tested positive for the coronavirus were also reportedly returned home despite objections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC.)
...
The plane did have a plastic-lined enclosure that allowed the 14 people with the virus to be separated from the others, the State Department and HHS said.

"These individuals were moved in the most expeditious and safe manner to a specialized containment area on the evacuation aircraft to isolate them in accordance with standard protocols," the departments said a statement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 21, 2020, 11:46:12 PM
Administration officials told The Washington Post that Trump learned of the reversal after the fact and was furious that he was not first consulted, reportedly fearing the move could affect the government's handling of the coronavirus outbreak.


WaPo:  Trump was not told coronavirus-infected Americans would be flown home from cruise ship (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-was-not-told-coronavirus-infected-americans-would-be-flown-home-from-cruise-ship/2020/02/21/ae58b24c-54be-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html)

Quote
Trump was briefed on the decision and agreed that healthy passengers should not be on the plane with sick ones, three senior administration officials said. But the State Department and a top U.S. health official ultimately decided to bring back the 14 Americans who tested positive for the virus on the planes and place them in isolation — without informing the president first.

Quote
During the 2014 Ebola outbreak, Trump, then a private citizen, called for the United States to shut its borders and said American doctors who had become infected with the disease while treating patients should not be allowed back into the country for treatment.

“The U.S. must immediately stop all flights from EBOLA infected countries or the plague will start and spread inside our ‘borders.’ Act fast!” Trump wrote.

Yet Trump also remains concerned that any large-scale outbreak in the United States could hurt his 2020 presidential reelection bid. He has also been unwilling to criticize China’s response to the outbreak despite some of his advisers pushing for a tougher stance, and has worried that any further drastic action by his administration could further spook the markets and hurt the economy in an election year.

Administration officials are concerned that they might not be able to quarantine large numbers of people in the United States if a pandemic breaks out. There have been at least 10 meetings on quarantines in the past two weeks, administration officials said.

Quote
One of the officials arguing they should all be flown home together was Robert Kadlec, assistant secretary for preparedness and response for the Department of Health and Human Services and a member of the task force.
Wikipedia:  Robert P. Kadlec is an American physician and career officer in the United States Air Force who currently serves as Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services (Preparedness and Response).
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 22, 2020, 08:52:47 AM
WaPo:  Coronavirus outbreak edges closer to pandemic (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-outbreak-edges-closer-to-pandemic/2020/02/21/03afafc0-5429-11ea-9e47-59804be1dcfb_story.html)

Quote
There are outbreaks. There are epidemics. And there are pandemics, where epidemics become rampant in multiple countries and continents simultaneously. The novel coronavirus that causes the disease named covid-19 appears to be on the verge of that third, globe-shaking stage.

Quote
If the coronavirus becomes a true pandemic, a large proportion of the human population — a third, a half, two-thirds even — could become infected, although that doesn’t necessarily mean they will get sick. The word ‘pandemic’ invokes fear, but it describes how widespread an outbreak may be, not its deadliness.

“If we went across the whole world and had a magic ball and were able to detect everyone who’s positive, we’d see it in lots of countries,” said Michael Mina, an infectious disease specialist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “It’s never clear until it’s happening."

“I think we should assume that this virus is very soon going to be spreading in communities here, if it isn’t already, and despite aggressive actions, we should be putting more efforts to mitigate impacts,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist and senior scholar the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “That means protecting people who are most likely to develop severe illness and die.”

Quote
The virus would be easier to contain if people who are contagious were obviously so, as was the case with SARS, which started an outbreak that burned itself out in 2003. But the new virus appears to spread among people who in some cases are not noticeably sick. In fact, most cases of covid-19 have been mild. Taxi drivers and people at business meetings have spread the illness, and among the more than 600 passengers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship who have tested positive, about half had no obvious symptoms.

Quote
“What we find is that this virus is going to be very difficult to contain,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease researcher at Columbia University and co-author of the study posted Monday. “Personally, I don’t think we can do it.”

Quote
The novel coronavirus may be particularly suited for stealth community transmission since its symptoms can be indistinguishable from those of a cold or flu, and testing capabilities are still being ramped up.

Quote
The virus has already infected people in every province in China and is now spreading in communities in Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong and Japan, according to Nancy Messonnier, a top Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official.

“I want to be clear that we are not seeing community spread here in the United States yet,” she said Friday. “But it’s very possible, even likely, that may eventually happen.”

Quote
Public health experts are devising strategies on how to conserve N95 respirators, specialized masks that are in a limited supply amid surging demand. They’re even thinking about seemingly small details, like how to make sure patients don’t spark new infections when they use a touch screen to check in, or pump sanitizer onto their hands.

“We have to be ready,” said Paul Biddinger, chief of the division of emergency preparedness for Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston. “Extrapolating from some of the numbers we’ve seen on the impact to the health care system in China, it means we’ll have to surge fast.”


Hopefully we get a vaccine sooner than later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 22, 2020, 10:25:42 AM
WSJ:  How One Singapore Sales Conference Spread Coronavirus Around the World (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-one-singapore-sales-conference-spread-coronavirus-around-the-world-11582299129?mod=trending_now_pos4)

Quote
Last month, 109 people gathered in a Singapore hotel for an international sales conference held by a U.K.-based company that makes products to analyze gas.

When the attendees flew home, some unwittingly took the coronavirus with them.

The virus had a 10-day head start on health authorities who, after belatedly learning a 41-year-old Malaysian participant was infected, began a desperate effort to track the infection through countries including South Korea, England and France. Health investigators have found at least 20 people in six Asian and European countries who were sickened, some who attended the conference and others who came in contact with participants.

A globalized economy, one that’s far more integrated than in the early 2000s when the SARS virus broke out, is complicating the task of responding to epidemics.

Quote
Singapore, whose health authorities have confirmed 86 cases there, has deployed dozens of contact tracers and data analysts to hunt down every bit of information. The work begins in hospitals where specialists are interviewing sickened people to map their whereabouts for the days before they were isolated and might have infected others, seeking details such as whom they ate with and met, which shoe shop they visited, how many salespeople shook their hands.


If a wealthy, authoritarian city-state like Singapore is struggling to track cases from a small sales conference their dirt-poor neighbors don't stand a chance.  With the increasing evidence of asymptomatic and mild cases transmitting the infection, the actual number of infections could be in the millions by now in Asia. 

We might still be able to keep it out of North America but probably not without serious economic consequences.  The barn door had been open for too long by the time China let the rest of us know. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Knecht on February 22, 2020, 12:46:32 PM
Good news, everyone
A local Czech company has developed a facemask with copper-oxide based nanofibers, that supposedly protects the wearer from Coronavirus (unlike common masks that rather stop the infected person from spreading the disease, but don't help a heathy one). Full production should start here in CZ by May. Masks will also be made in Israel and in Asia, presumably right in China.
I'll try to keep you informed. Since I'm relatively close to the city where maks will be made, I guess I'll try to get some ASAP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 22, 2020, 02:11:31 PM
Lebanon has its first case and its stirring ire with Iran who they blame for not containing well.

The Chinese have some real egg on their face here. Clearly their initial reporting was completely bogus. American officials are already speaking of the risk of doing business in China where every 5 years you must deal with a potential global pandemic.

Even if this burns out the global tensions will leave some massive fallout.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 22, 2020, 03:33:54 PM
WaPo:  New developments suggest coronavirus incubation could be longer than 14 days, as global infections rise (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-updates/2020/02/22/72dd19de-54ea-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html)

Quote
There are some indications that the incubation period for the coronavirus could be longer than 14 days, with patients testing positive after much longer quarantine periods, researchers said. The rush to understand the virus came as infections rose in South Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy. The head of the World Health Organization warned that the window for stopping the epidemic was narrowing. Here’s what we know:

●Chinese leader Xi Jinping has been advised that the situation in Wuhan “remains grim and complex.” Amid an alarming surge in cases with no clear link to China, infectious disease experts say they believe the flulike illness may soon be a pandemic and impossible to contain.

●South Korea and Japan both reported a sharp spike in cases, with the number of cases in South Korea doubling in a day to at least 430. A sixth person died in Iran from the virus, while Italy now has at least 58 confirmed cases, making it the largest hot spot in Europe.

Nine South Korean tourists who recently toured Israel and the occupied West Bank tested positive for coronavirus Saturday. Israeli and Palestinian authorities are urging anyone who may have come in contact with them to report and self-isolate.

●China reported only 397 new cases Saturday, as the rate of increase continued to decline, but an additional 109 people have died. There continues to be a great deal of skepticism about China’s numbers as the criteria for diagnosing coronavirus keep changing.

●A federal judge granted a request from the city of Costa Mesa, Calif., on Friday to temporarily block the transfer of up to 50 quarantined coronavirus patients to a complex the city said was not suited to house patients with the disease.

●Scientists in China said they had isolated coronavirus strains in urine, raising the possibility that it might be transmissible that way, as well as through fecal matter and respiratory droplets.

Quote
The potential for a longer incubation period was linked to a patient in China’s Hubei Province, where the virus was first detected in December. A 70-year-old man was infected with coronavirus, but did not show symptoms until 27 days later, the local government reported.


First it was just snot.  Then maybe shit.  And now piss.  Oh, and by the way, maybe we should be doubling the quarantine time to 28 days before we clear suspected exposures.


We're not going to reach a nice tidy endpoint like SARS or Ebola with this one, because COVID doesn't behave in similarly definitive fashion, its indolence allows smoldering cases to shed virus far and wide before anybody's the wiser.


It's looking like the pandemic is on. 


Even with a case fatality rate similar to flu, we can easily exceed the existing medical system's capacity to evaluate and treat the severe cases here in the highly developed countries. 

Get the flu shot now, and pneumococcus if you're elderly or have chronic health conditions.  Anything to minimize contracting a serious respiratory infection that risks a hospital visit, which will lump you in with the increasing number of novel COVID suspects, because who knows what kind of isolation the powers that be will have decided those poor souls must be subjected to by then. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 22, 2020, 07:45:05 PM
A local Czech company has developed a facemask with copper-oxide based nanofibers, that supposedly protects the wearer from Coronavirus (unlike common masks that rather stop the infected person from spreading the disease, but don't help a heathy one).

Looks like there's some science behind this.  From 10 years ago:

A Novel Anti-Influenza Copper Oxide Containing Respiratory Face Mask (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/44889521_A_Novel_Anti-Influenza_Copper_Oxide_Containing_Respiratory_Face_Mask)

Not a cure-all but maybe an improvement on regular masks:

Quote
...We demonstrate that impregnation of copper oxide into respiratory protective face masks endows them with potent biocidal properties in addition to their inherent filtration properties. Both control and copper oxide impregnated masks filtered above 99.85% of aerosolized viruses when challenged with ... human influenza A virus (H1N1) and avian influenza virus (H9N2), respectively, under simulated breathing conditions...

But, the copper oxide appears to destroy about 80% of the virus in the mask, compared with the control.

Quote
...The use of biocidal masks may significantly reduce the risk of hand or environmental contamination, and thereby subsequent infection, due to improper handling and disposal of the masks. ...

So the main goal here is to make the used masks less infectious when they are removed.  There's a possible side-benefit of improving protection for users who wear masks for long periods.

80% isn't perfect but it might be worth the added expense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 23, 2020, 07:32:58 AM

WaPo:  Trump was not told coronavirus-infected Americans would be flown home from cruise ship (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-was-not-told-coronavirus-infected-americans-would-be-flown-home-from-cruise-ship/2020/02/21/ae58b24c-54be-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html)
Wikipedia:  Robert P. Kadlec is an American physician and career officer in the United States Air Force who currently serves as Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services (Preparedness and Response).

Not a great call.  The psychological impact alone should have precluded this.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/flying-coronavirus-class-photos-of-americans-flight-from-hell/amp/ (https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/flying-coronavirus-class-photos-of-americans-flight-from-hell/amp/)
Flying coronavirus class: Photos of American Diamond Princess passengers’ flight from hell

It was a long-awaited escape for the passengers, who had been quarantined in their cabins since the ship docked off Japan on Feb. 3, with 3,700 people on board.

The Americans were finally off-loaded from the ship on Sunday — but their ordeal was far from over.

The CDC delivered the bad news — that 14 people among them had just tested positive for the virus —  as the passengers rode the bus to the airport in Tokyo.

The State Department’s decision to allow the infected, but asymptomatic, passengers to fly back to the US — rather than to stay in quarantine in Japan — was highly controversial.

The 14 were allowed on the two flights even though the CDC was reportedly adamant that they not come to the US.


(https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2020/02/kalitta-air-coronavirus-flight-0-1.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=978&h=652)
(https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2020/02/kalitta-air-coronavirus-flight-2.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=1011)


Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 23, 2020, 10:52:29 AM
Italy has locked down 50,000 people in 11 towns to combat the growing number of infections. Military and police establishing a cordon around the area and violators face jail time.


South Korea has authorized the highest level of public health containment measures but formal orders are still pending.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 23, 2020, 11:30:24 AM
What checkpoints look like and how they operate.  Lessons to be learned.

https://twitter.com/CarlHerberger/status/1231628241334566913?s=09 (https://twitter.com/CarlHerberger/status/1231628241334566913?s=09)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on February 23, 2020, 12:57:08 PM
Wow. I'm guessing he flunked the temperature test?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: fritz_monroe on February 23, 2020, 03:58:40 PM
Wow. I'm guessing he flunked the temperature test?
That looks like it was a drill, but still scary stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 23, 2020, 04:52:44 PM
WSJ:  Italy Grapples With Worst Coronavirus Outbreak Outside Asia (https://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-grapples-with-worst-coronavirus-outbreak-outside-asia-11582466716?mod=hp_lead_pos2&mod=article_inline)

Quote
The first economic effects hit Milan, the engine of Italy’s economy, which is just 40 miles from the outbreak’s epicenter. Trade shows, soccer matches and other public events were canceled. The mayor of Milan, Italy’s second-largest city with about 1.4 million residents, said the city’s schools will would be closed for a week.

Quote
Health officials struggled to explain how in just a few days Italy went from having just three cases, two of them Chinese tourists, to becoming by far Europe’s biggest outbreak. Italian authorities are trying to reconstruct how the outbreak started, a key step needed to track down all people who might be infected without yet showing symptoms.

One focus is an emergency room in a hospital in Codogno, the town south of Milan at the center of the outbreak. Codogno and nine other nearby towns in Lombardy were put under quarantine on Saturday. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte didn’t say how long the quarantine would last.

Quote
Authorities in the Austrian province of Tyrol temporarily stopped all train traffic coming from Italy on Sunday, holding two trains with around 500 passengers at the Brenner Pass on the Italian side of the border. They were acting on fears that a train had two people on board who may have been infected with the Covid-19 virus. The two passengers subsequently tested negative and their train was set to continue its trip, Austrian Interior Minister Karl Nehammer said.


The worrying thing about Italy is the new cases don't have clear connections to China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 23, 2020, 09:43:28 PM
Guardian:  World is approaching coronavirus tipping point, experts say  (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/world-is-approaching-coronavirus-tipping-point-experts-say)

Quote
Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia and an authority on the new coronavirus infection, echoed Tedros’s warning and said the time for containing the disease was running out.

“The director general of the WHO has recently spoken of a narrowing of the window of opportunity to control the current epidemic,” he said. “The tipping point after which our ability to prevent a global pandemic ends seems a lot closer after the past 24 hours.”

Quote
He said the surge in South Korean cases had been unprecedented so far in the epidemic, adding: “The identification of the large cluster of cases in Italy is a big worry for Europe and we can expect there to be quite a few more cases identified in the next few days.”

Hunter also said the situation in Iran could have major implications for the Middle East. “A further problem with the Iranian cases is wider armed conflicts in the region,” he said.

Quote
Dr Robin Thompson, junior research fellow in mathematical epidemiology at the University of Oxford, pointed out that case numbers in Italy had doubled between Friday and Saturday. “This is an important stage of the coronavirus outbreak,” he said. “Fast isolation of even mild cases in affected areas is important for preventing substantial person-to-person transmission in Europe. It is critical that public health guidelines are followed.”

Quote
Pakistan responded by closing its land border with Iran, while Afghanistan said it was suspending travel to Iran “to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus and protect the public”. Turkey also closed its borders and said it would halt incoming flights, adding that all motorways and railways at the border would be shut on Sunday afternoon.

Jordan, meanwhile, will not allow entry to citizens of China, Iran and South Korea and other foreigners travelling from those countries in response to the deadly outbreak.

Quote
Warning that China’s virus epidemic was “still grim and complex,” the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, called on Sunday for more efforts to stop the outbreak, revive industry and prevent the disease from disrupting the spring planting of crops. Xi defended the ruling Communist party’s response as “timely and effective” in a video conference with officials in charge of anti-disease work, according to the Xinhua news agency.


It already happened, we're just realizing it this weekend, and tomorrow the hammer falls.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 23, 2020, 11:52:29 PM
WaPo:  South Korea orders temporary shutdown of messianic church linked to more than half the country’s coronavirus cases (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/south-korea-orders-temporary-shutdown-of-messianic-church-linked-to-more-than-half-the-countrys-coronavirus-cases/2020/02/23/728278f0-5650-11ea-8efd-0f904bdd8057_story.html)

Quote
More than half of South Korea’s covid-19 cases have been traced to a regional branch of the secretive Shincheonji Church of Jesus, formally known as the Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony.

Quote
Health authorities have identified a 61-year-old woman who attended a Shincheonji branch in the southern city of Daegu as patient zero for scores of cases within the church. The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the woman initially refused doctors’ requests that she be tested for the virus on the grounds that she had not traveled abroad recently.

The church denied media reports that the woman assaulted nurses and created a commotion with fellow church members at the hospital.

Authorities have identified a pair of Sunday services she attended with 1,000 others this month as a hotbed for the coronavirus.

Quote
Woo Seoc-kyun, a representative of the Association of Physicians for Humanism, said “hatred against Shincheonji” does not help but hinders efforts to contain the virus. “The labeling effect will push them even deeper into hiding,” Woo was quoted as saying by the online news outlet Pressian.

In his internal message, published by South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency, church leader Lee called the mass infection “the devil’s deed to curb the rapid growth of Shincheonji.”


Well, isn't that special.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: bigbear on February 24, 2020, 06:40:06 AM
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-and-blindness-authoritarianism/606922/

Such a good article that runs that connects many of the poli-sci dots in China:  Hong Kong, tech surveillance, COVID, global trend to the 'strong man' leader.

Quote
Ironically, for all the talk of the technological side of Chinese authoritarianism, China’s use of technology to ratchet up surveillance and censorship may have made things worse, by making it less likely that Xi would even know what was going on in his own country.

Authoritarian blindness is a perennial problem, especially in large countries like China with centralized, top-down administration.

(This one's a bit off topic, but it builds support for the reasons behind the COVID spread.)
Quote
Since taking power in 2012, Xi has shifted back to traditional one-man rule, concentrating more and more power into his hands. He has deployed an ever-more suffocating system of surveillance, propaganda, and repression, while attempting to create a cult of personality reminiscent of the Mao era, except with apps instead of little red books.

Unlike books, though, apps can spy on people.

One hundred million or so people in China have been, ahem, persuaded to download a party-propaganda app named “Study Xi, Strong Nation,” which makes users watch inculcation videos and take quizzes in a gamified, points-based system. It also allegedly gives the government access to the complete contents of users’ phones. It almost doesn’t matter whether the app contains such backdoor access or not: Reasonable people will act as if it does and be wary in all of their communications. Xi has also expanded China’s system of cameras linked to facial-recognition databases, which may someday be able to identify people everywhere they go. Again, the actual workings of the system are secondary to their chilling effects: For ordinary people, the safe assumption is that if they are in the wrong place at the wrong time, the authorities will know.

Back to the OP... 
Quote
It’s not clear why Xi let things spin so far out of control. It might be that he brushed aside concerns from his aides until it was too late, but a stronger possibility is that he did not know the crucial details. Hubei authorities may have lied, not just to the public but also upward—to the central government. Just as Mao didn’t know about the massive crop failures, Xi may not have known that a novel coronavirus with sustained human-to-human transmission was brewing into a global pandemic until too late.

Quote
If people are too afraid to talk, and if punishing people for “rumors” becomes the norm, a doctor punished for spreading news of a disease in one province becomes just another day, rather than an indication of impending crisis. Later, under criticism, Xi would say he gave instructions for fighting the virus as early as January 7, implying that he knew about it all along. But how could he admit the alternative? This is his system.

Contrary to common belief, the killer digital app for authoritarianism isn’t listening in on people through increased surveillance, but listening to them as they express their honest opinions, especially complaints. An Orwellian surveillance-based system would be overwhelming and repressive, as it is now in China, but it would also be similar to losing sensation in parts of one’s body due to nerve injuries. Without the pain to warn the brain, the hand stays on the hot stove, unaware of the damage to the flesh until it’s too late.

Sounds like some jobs I've held too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 24, 2020, 09:03:35 AM
A change in tone at CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html) over the weekend: 

Quote
Risk Assessment

Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern. The risk from these outbreaks depends on characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads between people, the severity of resulting illness, and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccine or treatment medications). The fact that this disease has caused illness, including illness resulting in death, and sustained person-to-person spread is concerning. These factors meet two of the criteria of a pandemic. As community spread is detected in more and more countries, the world moves closer toward meeting the third criteria, worldwide spread of the new virus.

The potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, both globally and to the United States.

But individual risk is dependent on exposure.

    For the general American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus at this time, the immediate health risk from COVID-19 is considered low.
    Under current circumstances, certain people will have an increased risk of infection, for example healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19 and other close contacts of persons with COVID-19. CDC has developed guidance to help in the risk assessment and management of people with potential exposures to COVID-19.

However, it’s important to note that current global circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic. In that case, the risk assessment would be different.


What May Happen

More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It’s also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States. Widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. Schools, childcare centers, workplaces, and other places for mass gatherings may experience more absenteeism. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected. Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it. Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy.


CDC Response

Global efforts at this time are focused concurrently on containing spread of this virus and mitigating the impact of this virus. The federal government is working closely with state, local, tribal, and territorial partners, as well as public health partners, to respond to this public health threat. The public health response is multi-layered, with the goal of detecting and minimizing introductions of this virus in the United States so as to reduce the spread and the impact of this virus. CDC is operationalizing all of its pandemic preparedness and response plans, working on multiple fronts to meet these goals, including specific measures to prepare communities to respond local transmission of the virus that causes COVID-19. There is an abundance of pandemic guidance developed in anticipation of an influenza pandemic that is being repurposed and adapted for a COVID-19 pandemic.


WaPo:  White House preparing to ask Congress for more money to finance coronavirus response (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/02/24/white-house-preparing-ask-congress-more-money-finance-coronavirus-response/)

Quote
Details remain in flux as the Trump administration continues to assess needs. The request could be sent to Capitol Hill in the next few days and could seek close to $1 billion, according to two of the people briefed on the planning. The preparation comes as efforts to contain the virus have failed in multiple countries and financial markets are becoming increasingly spooked about the snowballing economic impact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 24, 2020, 06:51:59 PM
Boy, talk about a stressful situation for everyone involved.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/watch-mother-cancer-patient-pleads-china-coronavirus-checkpoint-her-daughters-passage (https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/watch-mother-cancer-patient-pleads-china-coronavirus-checkpoint-her-daughters-passage)
WATCH: Mother of Cancer Patient Pleads At China Coronavirus Checkpoint For Her Daughter's Passage

“My daughter needs to go to [a] hospital in Jiujiang,” said Lu, a farmer. “She needs to have her treatment, but they won’t let us through.”

“Please, take my daughter. I don’t need to go past. … Please, just let my daughter go past,” she said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 25, 2020, 12:47:16 AM
Don't think we're immune to such situations developing here in the US. 

Hospitals don't make money on empty beds so there's just barely enough spare capacity to handle the extra flu cases each season.  There were hospitals that maxed out their ventilator capacity during the 2009 Swine Flu that everyone mocks as over-hyped.  It wouldn't take much of an increase in real respiratory infections (plus the inevitable worried-well) to overwhelm hospitals forced to deal with the extra precautions COVID will require. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on February 25, 2020, 07:21:58 AM
I've got most all of the extra medical that I ordered for this. Probably should of had it anyways. Masks, wipes, extra alcohol.

It's all here except for the extra alcohol I ordered.

Ordered N95 masks from Amazon on Feb 1st for 18.99
Curious, the price raised to almost 40.00 then went out of stock like most of the N95's. Now restocked, and 2 sellers are priced at 49.75 + shipping, and 70.00 + shipping.
And, ordered some fillin Augason products yesterday, and noticed most Augason were out of stock, and Walmart was out of stock on almost all of Augason.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 25, 2020, 01:11:51 PM
MMWR:  Update: Public Health Response to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Outbreak — United States, February 24, 2020 (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6908e1.htm?s_cid=mm6908e1_e&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM20815)

Quote
Discussion

COVID-19 is a serious public health threat. Cases of COVID-19 have been diagnosed in the United States, primarily in travelers from China and quarantined repatriates, and also in two close contacts of COVID-19 patients. Currently, COVID-19 is not recognized to be spreading in U.S. communities. If sustained transmission in U.S. communities is identified, the U.S. response strategy will enhance implementation of actions to slow spread in communities (2,6). Implementation of basic precautions of infection control and prevention, including staying home when ill and practicing respiratory and hand hygiene will become increasingly important.

Community-level nonpharmaceutical intervention might include school dismissals and social distancing in other settings (e.g., postponement or cancellation of mass gatherings and telework and remote-meeting options in workplaces). These measures can be disruptive and might have societal and economic impact on individual persons and communities (6). However, studies have shown that early layered implementation of these interventions can reduce the community spread and impact of infectious pathogens such as pandemic influenza, even when specific pharmaceutical treatments and vaccines are not available (7,8). These measures might be critical to avert widespread COVID-19 transmission in U.S. communities (2,6). Mitigation measures implemented in China have included the closing of major transport hubs and preventing exit from certain cities with widespread transmission, cancellation of Chinese New Year celebrations, and prohibition of attendance at school and work (5). However, the impact of these measures in China has not yet been evaluated.

In the United States, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and their collaborators are working on development of candidate vaccines and therapeutics for COVID-19. In China, multiple clinical trials of investigational therapeutics have been implemented, including two clinical trials of remdesivir, an investigational antiviral drug.§§ An NIH randomized controlled clinical trial of investigational therapeutics for hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United States was approved by the Food and Drug Administration; the first investigational therapeutic to be studied is remdesivir.¶¶ In the absence of a vaccine or therapeutic, community mitigation measures are the primary method to respond to widespread transmission and supportive care is the current medical treatment.

COVID-19 symptoms are similar to those of influenza (e.g., fever, cough, and shortness of breath), and the current outbreak is occurring during a time of year when respiratory illnesses from influenza and other viruses, including other coronaviruses that cause the “common cold,” are highly prevalent. To prevent influenza and possible unnecessary evaluation for COVID-19, all persons aged ≥6 months should receive an annual influenza vaccine; vaccination is still available and effective in helping to prevent influenza (9). To decrease risk for respiratory disease, persons can practice recommended preventive measures.*** Persons ill with symptoms of COVID-19 who have had contact with a person with COVID-19 or recent travel to countries with apparent community spread††† should communicate with their health care provider. Before seeking medical care, they should consult with their provider to make arrangements to prevent possible transmission in the health care setting. In a medical emergency, they should inform emergency medical personnel about possible COVID-19 exposure.

Areas for additional COVID-19 investigation include 1) further clarifying the incubation period and duration of virus shedding, which have implications for duration of quarantine and other mitigation measures; 2) studying the relative importance of various modes of transmission, including the role of droplets, aerosols, and fomites; understanding these transmission modes has major implications for infection control and prevention, including the use of personal protective equipment; 3) determining the severity and case-fatality rate of COVD-19 among cases in the U.S. health care system, as well as more fully describing the spectrum of illness and risk factors for infection and severe disease; 4) determining the role of asymptomatic infection in ongoing transmission; and 5) assessing the immunologic response to infection to aid in the development of vaccines and therapeutics. Public health authorities are monitoring the situation closely. As more is learned about this novel virus and this outbreak, CDC will rapidly incorporate new knowledge into guidance for action.


11:30 a.m. ET Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020:  CDC Media Telebriefing: Update on COVID-19 Media Advisory (https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/a0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html) by Nancy Messonnier, M.D., Director, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases

Quote
“It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen."

Quote
“We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on February 25, 2020, 01:17:50 PM
Quote
“We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad.”


I hope everyone does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 25, 2020, 02:22:12 PM
On the legal precedent for quarantine....


WaPo:  The government can quarantine you for coronavirus, and there’s almost nothing you can do about it (https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/02/25/coronavirus-government-quarantine/)

Quote
The government’s powers to sequester people in the name of public health are rooted in the Constitution’s Commerce Clause, which allows Congress to regulate foreign and interstate commerce. Quarantine involves the temporary confinement of people who may have been exposed to a disease but haven’t developed symptoms. Isolation separates people who are infected with a disease until they are no longer contagious.

“It’s like a curfew or an evacuation order if a natural disaster occurs. Just like when a hurricane is bearing down, people are ordered to leave coastal areas because no one can save them,” said Scott Burris, director of the Center for Public Health Law Research at Temple University. “If we have a reasonable prospect of stopping or slowing this virus, even if we’re doing it with mittens on, the government can take emergency action.”

Quote
U.S. District Judge John F. Dooling rejected the petition and ordered Siegel to remain quarantined for the full 14 days.

The judgment required is that of a public health officer and not of a lawyer used to insist on positive evidence to support action,” Dooling wrote. “Their task is to measure risk to the public and to seek for what can reassure and, not finding it, to proceed reasonably to make the public health secure. They deal in a terrible context and the consequences of mistaken indulgence can be irretrievably tragic.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 25, 2020, 03:21:59 PM
Unfortunately the 2019-2020 flu shot is a sorta bad match (yet again) so it provides precious little protection.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/14/health/flu-vaccine-match/index.html

I have qualms about this math but it belies the point that be it normal flu or corona the best medical advice is to limit exposure and practice clean health stuff like hand washing and not rubbing your face.

It's sad but it seems we should be putting soup in the freezer and making sure the cough medicine is stocked. Not much more that the average guy/gal can do. Seems like we just extended flu season.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 25, 2020, 04:27:23 PM
Unfortunately the 2019-2020 flu shot is a sorta bad match (yet again) so it provides precious little protection.

Certainly nothing new, but the focus has always been to limit severe flu illnesses that require hospitalization.  Influenza disease is less severe in those who receive even the worst matched vaccine.

Minimizing one’s contact with the hospital system is more critical in times of limited medical capacity to treat severe respiratory infections, more so when facing harsh quarantine orders to minimize transmission.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 25, 2020, 07:54:30 PM
Good Australian documentary on the epidemic from the beginning:  https://youtu.be/ycrqXJYf1SU (https://youtu.be/ycrqXJYf1SU)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on February 26, 2020, 06:32:35 AM
Good Australian documentary on the epidemic from the beginning:  https://youtu.be/ycrqXJYf1SU (https://youtu.be/ycrqXJYf1SU)

I will give it a watch if I can find the time today.  I am starting to think my family is actually fighting the Flu instead of a respiratory cold like I thought.  Maybe not though - it seems to effect us each differently.  Some have had the absolute weakness and body aches, and others just extreme fatigue.  I just have not seen a "cold" last this long with my kids before, not the fatigue and fever part anyway.
Ans so many of our friends from our homeschool co-op and church and neighborhood are as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 26, 2020, 08:11:31 AM
Brazil confirms a coronavirus case, the first in Latin America.  Associated with travel to Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on February 26, 2020, 09:45:06 AM
looks like Trump will be having a press conference tonight at 6pm, eastern I assume.

so now what everyone needs to ask themselves (not here, no debate on this please) - do I trust this president to tell me the truth about it?

hopefully he will also give sources that we can use to verify as well; I hate having to take anybody's word alone on things this important.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on February 26, 2020, 09:49:06 AM
On the legal precedent for quarantine....


WaPo:  The government can quarantine you for coronavirus, and there’s almost nothing you can do about it (https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/02/25/coronavirus-government-quarantine/)

Can the government deny you access to food and Potable water while under quarantine?
Is there a reasonable maximum time limit for a quarantine?

Spirko Thinks the virus in China it is due to that most Chinese are very heavy smokers and the air quality from industry in that country is horrible that they have respiratory problems to begin with
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 26, 2020, 10:00:54 AM
Can the government deny you access to food and Potable water while under quarantine?
Is there a reasonable maximum time limit for a quarantine?

It is all based on the threat, like martial law.  Governments will resort to extraordinary measures, like in that Australian documentary where apartment building doors are being welded shut. 

Speaking of which, many are saying China may have throttled the spread within their borders with their massive quarantine and now are planning to block travel from the rest of the world to prevent reintroduction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on February 26, 2020, 01:10:45 PM

Iran's deputy health minister tests positive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VS0cRj3a0Qk
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on February 26, 2020, 01:15:04 PM
The "regular" flu that has gone around this year, well first there is more than one of course, but at least one of them is pretty bad.   I had it in November and I dont ever remember being that sick for so long.  Not everyone gets it that bad, but the ones that do, it is weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 26, 2020, 01:58:39 PM
In the last 24 hours the number of new cases is higher outside of China than inside. Hard to know if that’s for real, as we’ve been given plenty of reasons to doubt Chinese transparency, but it suggests that maybe their draconian measures worked.

I can’t imagine another country being capable of pulling that off without pointing a lot of guns at their own citizens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on February 26, 2020, 02:34:57 PM
Brazil confirms a coronavirus case, the first in Latin America.  Associated with travel to Italy.

Same thing in Greece...A lady that just arrived from Rome.
And the past few days there were more than 450 students taking a travel at Italy and those were allowed to return unscreened.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on February 26, 2020, 02:38:54 PM
The "regular" flu that has gone around this year, well first there is more than one of course, but at least one of them is pretty bad.   I had it in November and I dont ever remember being that sick for so long.  Not everyone gets it that bad, but the ones that do, it is weeks

thing i that people are more scared by the way the coronavirus is transmitted than by its milder symptoms/effects.
Just imagine another virus that requires a month to show symptoms on the affected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Hurricane on February 26, 2020, 03:50:33 PM
What I can't seem to get a handle on is this: How does this virus compare to a typical influenza outbreak?
What percentage of those infected actually die?
What percent are down and out for a week or more? Again, compared to a typical flu.

Thanks!
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 26, 2020, 04:18:56 PM
The data is incomplete so we don’t have exact comparisons to flu. Of the people who test positive for COVID, about 1 in 5 has serious symptoms.  At this point the fatality rate is over 2%, but likely will come down, while flu is 0.1%.

At the current numbers this is killing people at around the same rate as the 1918 flu.  Risk of death steadily increases over age 40, hardly any deaths under 20.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 26, 2020, 09:40:09 PM
NYT:  C.D.C. Confirms First Possible Community Transmission of Coronavirus in U.S. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/health/coronavirus-cdc-usa.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
A person in California who was not exposed to anyone known to be infected with the coronavirus, and had not traveled to countries in which the virus is circulating, has tested positive for the infection.

It may be the first case of community spread in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Wednesday.

“At this point, the patient’s exposure is unknown,” the C.D.C. statement said. “The case was detected through the U.S. public health system and picked up by astute clinicians.”


It looks like our turn has come, and this is probably just the tip of the iceberg. 

If there's one, there's a hundred, because each infected person spreads it to 2 or 3 others.  Flu infections, in comparison, spreads to significantly less than 2 others.  Unfortunately, we don't have sufficient testing capacity at the community level right now because CDC's initial test kits were unreliable and are being redesigned. 


Contrary to what you may have heard today, the number of current US COVID infections today was not 15 nor is it going to zero anytime soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on February 26, 2020, 10:09:39 PM
NYT:  C.D.C. Confirms First Possible Community Transmission of Coronavirus in U.S. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/health/coronavirus-cdc-usa.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)


It looks like our turn has come, and this is probably just the tip of the iceberg. 

If there's one, there's a hundred, because each infected person spreads it to 2 or 3 others.  Flu infections, in comparison, spreads to significantly less than 2 others.  Unfortunately, we don't have sufficient testing capacity at the community level right now because CDC's initial test kits were unreliable and are being redesigned. 


Contrary to what you may have heard today, the number of current US COVID infections today was not 15 nor is it going to zero anytime soon.

Yep, and my youngest, the attending college student here in CA now has some type of asthma thing going one, so has compromised lungs.  I am unhappy with doctors.  How do they know it is asthma ?  Arent there other things that cause lung problems ? How do they test ?  So far as I have seen there is no test, I know they have done no scan.  Breathing problems and cough respond to using an inhaler, ok, but not definitive.  At the office visit, wich didnt happen until yesterday, so when not having a bad episode the Dr tested flow or capacity or something ( just try and get sense or details out of a young adult) whatever it was was only 300, which is low and shows in general low lung capacity. 

Also, a young adult like this is not in tune or in the mood to hear about new virus's, so how can you try and talk to them about the risks of the new condition ?  Cant get the student to avoid things that trigger needing the inhaler.  The whole probable asthma and inhaler thing is 2 weeks old, 2 weeks ago was the urgent care trip where student was put in the front of the line due to low fingertip monitor O2 and given an inhaler.  Student continued to do physical activities resulting in continual daily use of the inhaler.  I swear the youth think they are invincible.  Then you throw in an emerging virus that likes to go to teh lower lungs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 26, 2020, 11:56:04 PM
Italy resident describes living under coronavirus lockdown:  https://youtu.be/yUjEyxa-kZA (https://youtu.be/yUjEyxa-kZA)

Leyla Bicer and her family live in Casalpusterlengo, a town southeast of Milan. Ten towns in the region of Lombardy are under lockdown, yet Bicer says residents are free to roam as they'd like — as long as they don't leave town. A 12th person in northern Italy died as a result of contracting the coronavirus, while the number of confirmed cases has risen to 374, the head of the Civil Protection agency said Wednesday.


Five days ago Italy had 20 cases and now they're approaching 500.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LeonardMaine on February 27, 2020, 01:04:54 AM
It spreads out quickly, Italy is a perfect example. But as long as people try to obey the rules (don't go out and enter into contact with others if they are suspected) everything should eventually tone down. Woefully, people don't ever listen and this is why the situation is escalating. I don't believe this is our end, however, but a lot of lives are affected and even lost over the ignorance of others who just don't listen to indications and roam around infecting others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on February 27, 2020, 06:15:23 AM
The data is incomplete so we don’t have exact comparisons to flu. Of the people who test positive for COVID, about 1 in 5 has serious symptoms.  At this point the fatality rate is over 2%, but likely will come down, while flu is 0.1%.

FreeLancer are yuo sur about these figures..
I did a search for the flu's mortality rate in Greece and it is 0.1% for the total of the populace (9.7 deaths per 100000 people, infected or not)
And i think that the 2% fatality relates to the number of sick people
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Ken325 on February 27, 2020, 06:50:34 AM
The proper way to calculate mortality is by dividing deaths/ total infections AFTER the pandemic has ended.  A lot of people are doing that calculation now and are including people who were just infected.  This virus has a 2-3 week incubation period and is spreading exponentially. This means a lot of people who were just infected are included in the mortality figures people are quoting.  If you look at resolved cases (fully recovered or dead) you see about a 10% mortality rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 27, 2020, 08:49:24 AM
FreeLancer are yuo sur about these figures..
I did a search for the flu's mortality rate in Greece and it is 0.1% for the total of the populace (9.7 deaths per 100000 people, infected or not)
And i think that the 2% fatality relates to the number of sick people

The 0.1% case fatality rate for flu is a firm rate, 1 out of every 1000 infections dies.

Nothing is firm with COVID at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 27, 2020, 09:15:12 AM
The proper way to calculate mortality is by dividing deaths/ total infections AFTER the pandemic has ended.  A lot of people are doing that calculation now and are including people who were just infected.  This virus has a 2-3 week incubation period and is spreading exponentially. This means a lot of people who were just infected are included in the mortality figures people are quoting.  If you look at resolved cases (fully recovered or dead) you see about a 10% mortality rate.

It’s also not clear how many mild or asymptomatic cases there are, like we have established with flu over the years, and we won’t know for awhile.

Regardless of what the true fatality rate is, it’s always worse when the hospital beds and ventilators run out. A 60 year old who could have easily survived this pneumonia with ICU treatment is going to die on a cot in medical isolation tent at the local fairgrounds instead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 27, 2020, 01:02:55 PM
NYT:  C.D.C. Confirms First Possible Community Transmission of Coronavirus in U.S. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/health/coronavirus-cdc-usa.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

More on this:

AP, 2/27/20: New US coronavirus case may be 1st from unknown origin (https://apnews.com/57177e2e35d7d0d518361166935c614e)

Quote
...California officials said the person is a resident of Solano County, northeast of San Francisco, and is getting medical care in Sacramento County. They said they have begun the process of tracking down people who the patient has been in contact with, a process known as contact tracing.

The patient was brought to UC Davis Medical Center from another Northern California hospital on Feb. 19 but it was four days before the CDC heeded a request to test the patient for COVID-19....

The patient arrived on a ventilator and special protection orders were issued “because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to the email sent to employees.

The hospital asked the CDC to test for the coronavirus but testing was delayed until Sunday “since the patient did not fit the existing CDC criteria for COVID-19,” the email said. ...

Something I'm wondering.  Has this virus been all over the world for months, and mistaken for a generic "influenza-like illness"?  Is it being detected in scattered locations now, only because they are finally testing for it?  This case would have been missed entirely, if somebody hadn't finally ignored the CDC testing guidelines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 27, 2020, 11:07:53 PM
Something I'm wondering.  Has this virus been all over the world for months, and mistaken for a generic "influenza-like illness"?  Is it being detected in scattered locations now, only because they are finally testing for it?  This case would have been missed entirely, if somebody hadn't finally ignored the CDC testing guidelines.

It does make you wonder. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 27, 2020, 11:51:45 PM
WaPo:  U.S. workers without protective gear assisted coronavirus evacuees, HHS whistleblower says (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/27/us-workers-without-protective-gear-assisted-coronavirus-evacuees-hhs-whistleblower-says/)

Quote
The complaint alleges HHS staffers were “improperly deployed” and were “not properly trained or equipped to operate in a public health emergency situation.” The complaint also alleges the workers were potentially exposed to coronavirus because appropriate steps were not taken to protect them and staffers were not trained in wearing personal protective equipment, even though they had face-to-face contact with returning passengers. The workers were in contact with passengers in an airplane hangar where evacuees were received and on two other occasions: when they helped distribute keys for room assignments and hand out colored ribbons for identification purposes.

In some instances, the teams were working alongside personnel from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in “full gown, gloves and hazmat attire,” the complaint said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: IKN on February 28, 2020, 08:47:40 AM
The wife saw a post this morning on Facebook about a confirmed case found in a dog who's owner was also diagnosed with the virus.
Anyone else see or hear anything ?

The post stated the dog didn't show any symptoms of being sick, but was carrying the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on February 28, 2020, 09:25:38 AM
More on this:

AP, 2/27/20: New US coronavirus case may be 1st from unknown origin (https://apnews.com/57177e2e35d7d0d518361166935c614e)

Something I'm wondering.  Has this virus been all over the world for months, and mistaken for a generic "influenza-like illness"?  Is it being detected in scattered locations now, only because they are finally testing for it?  This case would have been missed entirely, if somebody hadn't finally ignored the CDC testing guidelines.

It did cross my mind. When you consider that some survivors liken it to a very mild flu how would one even know? Getting a flu during flu season is pretty humdrum, no? And I do wonder about the actual numbers. There are some weird aspects to this disease. It seems to hit men harder than women and hits ethnically Chinese people harder than ethnic Europeans. We don't know why it seems worse on Iranians than Brits as well. So if those of us with European ancestry shake it off like a bad cold there's almost no telling how long it's been floating around. Everybody gets sick from time to time and without the popularity how would medical personnel even know to look for it?

There are a lot of questions that bodies like the CDC are going to have to wade through in the aftermath in order to piece this puzzle together.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 28, 2020, 01:30:55 PM
CNBC:  Bill Gates: Coronavirus may be ‘once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about’ (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/bill-gates-says-coronavirus-may-be-once-in-a-century-pathogen.html)

Quote
“I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise,” Gates wrote in an article published Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine.

NEJM:  Responding to Covid-19 — A Once-in-a-Century Pandemic? (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762#article_references)

Quote
Now we also face an immediate crisis. In the past week, Covid-19 has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about. I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise.

There are two reasons that Covid-19 is such a threat. First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems. The data so far suggest that the virus has a case fatality risk around 1%; this rate would make it many times more severe than typical seasonal influenza, putting it somewhere between the 1957 influenza pandemic (0.6%) and the 1918 influenza pandemic (2%).2

Second, Covid-19 is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others — an exponential rate of increase. There is also strong evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are just mildly ill or even presymptomatic.3 That means Covid-19 will be much harder to contain than the Middle East respiratory syndrome or severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which were spread much less efficiently and only by symptomatic people. In fact, Covid-19 has already caused 10 times as many cases as SARS in a quarter of the time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 28, 2020, 04:04:12 PM
NYT:  C.D.C. Confirms First Possible Community Transmission of Coronavirus in U.S. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/health/coronavirus-cdc-usa.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

Second unexplained case just announced in Northern California.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 28, 2020, 04:22:57 PM
NYT:  Government Eyes War Powers to Speed Medical Manufacturing Ahead of Virus (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/us/politics/trump-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
The Trump administration may use a 70-year-old law to speed up the manufacturing of medical supplies before a coronavirus outbreak, Alex M. Azar II, the health secretary, said on Friday, a seeming acknowledgment that the virus poses a threat beyond the reassurances of President Trump.

The Defense Production Act, passed by Congress in 1950 during the Korean War, allows the president to expand production of the materials for national security purposes. Mr. Azar said that the federal government could move to expedite certain contracts, including for supplies like face masks, gowns and gloves. Mr. Azar has said that 300 million of a type of mask known as N95 are needed for the emergency medical stockpile for health care workers.

“I don’t have any procurements I need it for now, but if I need it, we’ll use it,” Mr. Azar told reporters at a White House briefing on emergency funds that the White House is asking Congress to allocate to respond to the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 28, 2020, 04:32:20 PM
WaPo:  ‘People are getting a little crazy’: Life in Italy’s coronavirus ‘red zone’ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/people-are-getting-a-little-crazy-life-in-italys-coronavirus-red-zone/2020/02/28/3c83cbba-58e3-11ea-8efd-0f904bdd8057_story.html)

Quote
“We’re all going to get it,” said 22-year-old Claudia Ghidoni, sitting at a plastic table with two friends, the first time she’s been out of the house since Italian cases of covid-19 jumped last week.

Since then, life in parts of northern Italy has taken on a surreal air. Just across the furrowed fields from the bar in Santo Stefano Lodigiano, 40 miles southeast of Milan, more than 50,000 people live under lockdown in a quarantine area that stretches across 11 villages and towns.

A network of dozens of roadblocks staffed by police and soldiers keeps residents in and visitors out. Those who breach the quarantine zone are threatened with fines and jail time. The number of cases in the country surged this week to 800; there have been 21 deaths.

Quote
Elena Forvi, 36, an engineer from the village of Bertonico, said she panicked when the military arrived to set up roadblocks. “The last time we saw the army around these towns was the end of World War II,” she said. “I just felt useless, that I had no power over my freedom.”

Quote
The checkpoints have become handover points with the outside world. Some people come to give their relatives or friends gifts of cheese. Others hand over documents caught on the other side. One woman comes to collect special cat food dropped off by a friend.

Trucks and essential workers can pass through the barriers with the right paperwork.

In the first days of the quarantine, residents of nearby towns said some red-zone villagers would stroll out on country roads to buy a newspaper or go to a cafe.

But in recent days, more police have been deployed on back roads; the twinkling blue lights of police cars dot the horizon at dusk. Hay bales have been moved to block bicycle paths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 28, 2020, 05:57:54 PM
Third community acquired case reported in Northern California.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 28, 2020, 06:39:11 PM
San Antonio just confirmed 11 cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 28, 2020, 07:55:37 PM
Oregon has a case with no travel or China connection.

This patient is a teacher in the Portland Metro area, hospitalized in Hillsboro.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 28, 2020, 11:21:59 PM
NYT:  Unexplained Coronavirus Cases in Three States Raise Specter of Spread (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/us/coronavirus-solano-county.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
Troubling new signs that the coronavirus is spreading in the United States emerged on Friday, as cases not explained by overseas travel or contact with a person known to be infected were reported in California, Oregon and Washington State.

Officials from the three states announced that their testing had found new cases: a high school student from north of Seattle; an employee of an elementary school in Oregon, near Portland; and a woman in Santa Clara County, Calif., in the heart of Silicon Valley.

Quote
As word emerged of the unexplained cases, local officials scrambled to trace everyone who had come in contact with those who were ill. California health officials said they were increasing testing. And in Washington State, officials suggested that people needed to prepare for the possibility of schools closing and businesses keeping workers home.

“We’re going to be increasingly recommending that people try and avoid crowds and close contact with other people,” Dr. Jeff Duchin, health officer for Public Health Seattle & King County, said. “We may get to a point where we want to recommend canceling large public gatherings — social events, sporting events, entertainment — until we get over a hump of what might be a large outbreak.”

Quote
Emergency medical workers in San Jose who answer calls from people with coronavirus-like symptoms will now be instructed to wear protective clothing, he said. “We are going to need to take every reasonable precaution without resorting to panic or finger-pointing.”

For weeks, local and state health departments across the country have been stretched thin by the coronavirus outbreak, and the cases of unknown origin signaled a new front in their efforts. “Most public health departments can respond to one case or two cases,” Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, a public health professor at Johns Hopkins, said. “But it’s going to be many more than that.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 29, 2020, 05:56:14 AM
We’re going to be increasingly recommending that people try and avoid crowds and close contact with other people,” Dr. Jeff Duchin, health officer for Public Health Seattle & King County, said. “We may get to a point where we want to recommend canceling large public gatherings — social events, sporting events, entertainment — until we get over a hump of what might be a large outbreak.”

Yrs.  I was at a conference this past week and one issue was the potentisl cancellation of the Olympic Games in Tokyo.  They have only been rarely cancelled as part of their culture is being a sign of hope even in most difficult times.  And it isnt really able to be moved or suspended given the incredible lead times needed to host 15,000 athletes and millions of tourists.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 29, 2020, 08:24:17 AM
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/north-korea-official-suspected-having-21488373 (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/north-korea-official-suspected-having-21488373)
North Korea official suspected of having coronavirus 'shot dead for trip to public baths'
A trade official has reportedly been killed by a firing squad after defying coronavirus quarantine orders in the authoritarian Asian country, while a National Security Agency official was sent to work on a farm for similar offences
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 29, 2020, 02:55:14 PM
Trump announced first death in the US, a woman in her 50’s in Seattle area with other chronic medical conditions. 

People with heart disease, diabetes, COPD, and immune suppressed conditions like cancer and treatment for rheumaltologic diseases are going to be at higher risk of contracting the pneumonia this virus is capable of.  Obviously the older one gets the chance of having one or more of these conditions increases. The good news is that kids aren’t dying from this, but they can certainly spread it to adults who could require hospitalization.

Take care of yourself and family members. Don’t expose anyone to unnecessary risk. Get lots of sleep. Stay in bed if you get upper respiratory symptoms. Don’t overdo it when you think you’ve recovered because there appears to be relapse or reinfection potential that is more severe than the first round.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on February 29, 2020, 03:27:29 PM
I stumbled on this channel in YT suggestions. The guy seems very legit and offers daily updates.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rOTz9duXwo
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on February 29, 2020, 03:40:28 PM
Thanks for sharing all this...  looks to be an interesting year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 29, 2020, 07:01:33 PM
NYT:  How Prepared Is the U.S. for a Coronavirus Outbreak? (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-preparation-united-states.html)

Quote
In 2005, the federal government sought to assess how a respiratory-related pandemic might play out in the United States. Its report estimated (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pdf/professionals/hhspandemicinfluenzaplan.pdf) that a severe influenza pandemic would require mechanical ventilators for 740,000 critically ill people.

Today, as the country faces the possibility of a widespread outbreak of a new respiratory infection caused by the coronavirus, there are nowhere near that many ventilators, and most are already in use. Only about 62,000 full-featured ventilators were in hospitals across the country, a 2010 study found. More than 10,000 others are stored in the Strategic National Stockpile, a federal cache of supplies and medicines held in case of emergencies, according to Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Tens of thousands of other respiratory devices could be repurposed in an emergency, experts say, but the shortfall could be stark, potentially forcing doctors to make excruciating life-or-death decisions about who would get such help should hospitals become flooded with the desperately sick.

Quote
In plausible worst-case-scenarios given the pattern of the outbreak thus far, the country could experience acute shortages not just in ventilators but also health workers to operate them and care for patients; hospital beds; and masks and other protective equipment.

“Even during mild flu pandemics, most of our I.C.U.s are filled to the brim with severely ill patients on mechanical ventilation,” said Dr. Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and an expert on health care preparedness. “I hope and pray Covid-19 turns out to be a moderate pandemic, but if not, we’re in serious trouble,” he said, referring to the name given the disease caused by the virus.

Resources are concentrated in the most populous and wealthiest cities, leaving rural areas and other neglected communities exposed to greater risk. And public health experts worry that efforts to contain an outbreak could be hamstrung by budget cuts that have weakened state health departments.

Quote
China’s decision to quarantine tens of millions of its citizens raises questions about what kind of measures American authorities might adopt. Although public health experts in the United States say walling off entire cities and shutting down transport systems would most likely be counterproductive and do more harm than good, federal and state laws give governments the authority to limit civil liberties to protect the public health.

To help avert a severe epidemic, health officials are legally empowered to isolate the infected and those who had contact with them, restrain the sick if they resist treatment and close down whole institutions, from hospitals to churches.

Quote
In an extreme situation, some hospitals’ plans include provisions for rationing, even removing some patients from ventilators without requiring their consent to make way for others presumed to have a better chance of survival. Some plans would also limit the access of certain categories of patients from critical care or even hospitalization during a peak pandemic based on criteria such as their age or an underlying chronic disease.

Quote
Skilled nursing homes represent one of the greatest vulnerabilities in the health care system. They serve older adults and the infirm — the demographic most at risk from the coronavirus — and such facilities face particular challenges in stopping the spread of infection. Multiple studies have shown that germs spread easily in such places, partly because employees are overworked or poorly trained, and because the patients are so susceptible to infection.

Quote
Most major companies in the United States have said little about how they would respond to an outbreak, except to note their concern for the health and well-being of employees.

A spokeswoman for Amazon said the company was “watching this situation closely” but declined to comment on specific protocols. Representatives for several major banks, retailers and technology companies said they would look to the C.D.C. for guidance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on February 29, 2020, 07:18:05 PM
Contrary to what you may have heard today, the number of current US COVID infections today was not 15 nor is it going to zero anytime soon.



WaPo:  Inside Trump’s frantic attempts to minimize the coronavirus crisis (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-trumps-frantic-attempts-to-minimize-the-coronavirus-crisis/2020/02/29/7ebc882a-5b25-11ea-9b35-def5a027d470_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere_trending_now&utm_medium=email&utm_source=alert&wpisrc=al_trending_now__alert-politics--alert-national&wpmk=1)

Quote
Minutes before President Trump was preparing Wednesday to reassure a skittish nation about the coronavirus threat, he received a piece of crucial information: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had identified in California the first U.S. case of the illness not tied to foreign travel, a sign that the virus’s spread in the United States was likely to explode.

But when Trump took to the lectern for a news conference intended to bring transparency to the spiraling global crisis, he made no explicit mention of the California case and its implications — and falsely suggested the virus might soon be eradicated in the United States.

“And again, when you have 15 people — and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero — that’s a pretty good job we’ve done,” he said.

Quote
By the time he landed at Joint Base Andrews, Trump was already furious over what he considered an alarmist response by his administration and also thought he was being treated unfairly by the media. He was eager to inject his own voice into the unfolding drama and scheduled the White House news conference for Wednesday evening.

When Trump stepped in front of the cameras, “he had not slept for a day-and-a-half, two-and-a-half” days, as acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney told a gathering of conservatives Friday morning. The president offered an account that was, by turns, misleading and sanguine.

“Well, I don’t think it’s inevitable,” Trump said, contradicting Messonnier and the health officials who spoke after him Wednesday. “It probably will, it possibly will. It could be at a very small level or it could be at a larger level. Whatever happens, we’re totally prepared.”

Quote
The decision to tap Pence and streamline all communication through the vice president’s office was primarily driven by a potent combination of a lack of leadership and structure inside the White House, four senior officials said, as well as a faulty CDC coronavirus diagnostic test, botched and conflicting messaging from senior health officials, and Trump’s obsession with the falling financial markets, two senior administration officials said. Many HHS employees fretted that financial concerns, rather than public health considerations, were dictating the administration’s response, one of the officials added.

Quote
Trump only added to the uncertainty. During a meeting with African American leaders Thursday evening, the president offered a contradictory and ambiguous message about the virus.

“It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear,” Trump said. “And from our shores, we — you know, it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. We’ll see what happens. Nobody really knows.”

Quote
And Trump held a long-standing campaign rally Friday in North Charleston, S.C., where he accused Democrats of “politicizing” the coronavirus.

“And this is their new hoax,” the president crowed from the stage.

As Trump was dismissing the virus as a serious threat, the infection continued spreading in the country. California officials Friday evening announced the state’s second case of coronavirus of unknown origin, and just hours later, a northwest Oregon resident tested positive for the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on February 29, 2020, 08:34:01 PM
Trump wasn't dismissing the virus as a hoax, but rather the distortiins by the democrats.  Ironically, they have moved from criricizing the administration for having any checks at the border to now having too few.

https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104 (https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104)
AP FACT CHECK: Democrats distort coronavirus readiness

Democratic presidential contenders are describing the federal infectious-disease bureaucracy as rudderless and ill-prepared for the coronavirus threat because of budget cuts and ham-handed leadership by President Donald Trump. That’s a distorted picture.
...



https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-campaign-media-coronavirus-hoax.amp (https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-campaign-media-coronavirus-hoax.amp)
Trump campaign blasts media for 'massively dishonest' claim POTUS called coronavirus a 'hoax'

"Trump says the media’s hysteria-inducing coverage of the government response is the hoax, not the virus itself. Willful and malicious dishonesty," Murtaugh said. He also blasted The Washington Post's Dana Milbank and commentator Bill Kristol arguing that their claims proved Trump's point about Democratic hysteria surrounding the illness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on February 29, 2020, 10:14:06 PM
Chris Wallace has come out as the forefront leader of the anti-Trump brigade stating that Trump's statement was ineffective in subduing the virus hysteria; is that something that a president can do, or is that in the lap of the media and maybe even a personal responsibility?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 01, 2020, 12:02:48 AM
Obviously, there's a balance between reassuring people about a potential crisis vs. scaring them shitless, but public pronouncements that contradict .gov experts' messaging is (fill in the blank) with a pandemic looming. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 01, 2020, 02:42:35 AM
NYT:  Coronavirus may have spread in Washington State for weeks, researchers say. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/coronavirus-news.html)

Quote
Researchers who have examined the genomes of two coronavirus infections in Washington State say the similarities between the cases suggest the virus may have been spreading in the state for weeks.

Washington State had the first confirmed coronavirus case in the United States last month, in a patient from which health officials took a sample on Jan. 19. But another case that surfaced in the region this week probably descended from it, based on an analysis of the virus’s genetic sequence.

The findings suggest that the virus has been spreading in the community for close to six weeks, according to one of the scientists who compared the sequences, Trevor Bedford, an associate professor at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington.

If that is true, it could mean that anywhere from 150 to 1,500 people “have either been infected and recovered or currently are infected now,” said Mike Famulare, a principal research scientist at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wash., who performed the analysis. Those cases, if they exist, have thus far been undetected.


Tip of the iceberg.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 01, 2020, 06:26:01 AM
Obviously, there's a balance between reassuring people about a potential crisis vs. scaring them shitless, but public pronouncements that contradict .gov experts' messaging is (fill in the blank) with a pandemic looming.

It is best to take what agencies say with a grain of salt.  They are running fast and making a lot of unforced communication  errors.  An example is the CDC getting the gender of first US fatality wrong in briefings

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/02/29/coronavirus-lab-tests-fda-118316 (https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/02/29/coronavirus-lab-tests-fda-118316)
Trump warns against panic amid news of first U.S. coronavirus death

During today's briefing, Trump identified the person who died in Washington state as a woman in her 50s — rather than a man, as later confirmed by federal and state health officials and Gov. Jay Inslee's office. In a tweet this afternoon, CDC Director Robert Redfield said his agency had "erroneously identified the patient as female" while briefing Trump and Pence.

It is stuff like this that shakes people confidence in the "experts".   Plus we have seen sizable differences between CDC, NIH, and state health orgs.  They are working with different fact sets in an evolving situation.  So, it is ok to point out speculations may be wrong.  Being honest grows confidence.  And given the over-the-top communications on recent minor outbreaks, a little balance in communication is beneficial.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Redman on March 01, 2020, 07:14:49 AM
Rice University in Houston has asked a small group of employees and students to self-quarantine after suspected exposure overseas.

 https://abc13.com/rice-university-fears-possible-coronavirus-exposure-/5977061/

Also the CDC has said it confirms 11 cases of the virus in Texas.

https://abc13.com/health/coronavirus-hits-several-in-texas-cdc-reports/5974908/
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 01, 2020, 07:30:41 AM
https://huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5e5b13fbc5b6450a30bfb075/amp (https://huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5e5b13fbc5b6450a30bfb075/amp)
FDA Expands Coronavirus Testing After CDC Glitches Undermine Fight Against Disease.
Testing logjam is keeping vital information from patients and health officials
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Hurricane on March 01, 2020, 12:49:29 PM
If VP Pence does well at managing this crisis, it will make him look good in 2024.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 01, 2020, 02:47:58 PM
OK, time to call bullshit. If I believe the standard line the Chinese can't build hospitals fast enough and the Iranian government has been decimated yet the Brits who have survived shrug it off like a bad cold. Congrats Corona: You've done what SARS, Ebola, H1N1, and Spanish Flu couldn't get done. You're racist.

Every death in a 1st world country is either an elderly person or a person with underlying conditions or both. I can't for the life of me explain why this is a death sentence in China but in Japan you just hang out on the cruise ship for a couple weeks.

Something is not right with the published story. It's way creepy that during cold season we need to round up the people with the sniffles. And wouldn't you know Corona is just one of those magic diseases that can miraculously come back for a second round? Even being cured doesn't mean you're cured.

Way too much BS going on here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 01, 2020, 03:23:19 PM
Way too much BS going on here.


yup
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 01, 2020, 03:26:33 PM
BBC:  Coronavirus: 'Nothing ruled out' in government's virus battle tactics (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51693195)

Quote
Mr Hancock said the UK remained in the "containment" phase with 23 confirmed cases - but more are expected.

The government contingency plans, which will be published this week, include that newly-retired doctors and nurses could be asked to return to the NHS.

If the outbreak worsens, people could also be urged to work from home.

A minister in every government department will focus on tackling the virus, which causes the Covid-19 disease, while a team of experts will drive a public health campaign.

Quote
Asked if UK cities could be shut down, as has happened where the virus originated in China, Mr Hancock said: "There is clearly a huge economic and social downside to that. But we don't take anything off the table at this stage because you have to make sure you have all the tools available if that is what is necessary."

He added: "Under the worst-case scenario we would have to take some quite significant actions that would have social and economic disruption."

Quote
Emergency powers designed to restrict the virus if it became endemic would only be "temporary", Mr Hancock said - adding that it was "inevitable" the scale of the virus would worsen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 01, 2020, 03:40:41 PM
Way too much BS going on here.

How do you determine if it's BS or the fog of war?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 01, 2020, 04:15:41 PM
How do you determine if it's BS or the fog of war?

Fair question. I hate to be so callous but it's numbers. Something happened in China. I don't know what. Once the disease expanded to first world countries the death rate dropped off remarkably quick. People without underlying conditions seem to be fine. In fact it seems to be nothing more than a bad cold to a lot of survivors.

It's a legit disease with great communicability but it just doesn't have legs. Italy is locked down with a few hundred cases and almost no deaths. And while they shut down tourism and schools they kept the trains running. The ports are open.

Something here just doesn't make sense. I'm not making a big conspiracy claim but Corona in California isn't Corona in China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 01, 2020, 04:31:10 PM
Fair question. I hate to be so callous but it's numbers. Something happened in China. I don't know what. Once the disease expanded to first world countries the death rate dropped off remarkably quick. People without underlying conditions seem to be fine. In fact it seems to be nothing more than a bad cold to a lot of survivors.

It's a legit disease with great communicability but it just doesn't have legs. Italy is locked down with a few hundred cases and almost no deaths. And while they shut down tourism and schools they kept the trains running. The ports are open.

Something here just doesn't make sense. I'm not making a big conspiracy claim but Corona in California isn't Corona in China.

Italy has alot of deaths vs. the short time it has been there, and the trajectory is not looking good.  It is too early to tell that China is that different, although, as is stated earlier in this thread, there are a few notable differences in lifestyle (lack of heat/pollution/smoking, etc...) that could in and of themselves make a difference.  It is also possible that shady stuff happened within the outbreak, along the lines of never let a good crisis go to waste, so they could have easily done things to dissidents etc... without it being noticed while the virus was going on

It is way to early to tell about Corona in California.  You would have to compare how long it took china to get from the first officially acknowledged death to the height of their deaths.  On the plus side is the seasons changing in most of California already. SO, most virus' are not that active outside of winter here.  I would not be surprised if things slowed down here to get more infections in the fall.  We were in a heat wave the last couple of weeks, last week especially, way too hot. Well, it just cooled off, I will likely need to start heating again, so we will see.  But, as we are entering spring soon, virus' may calm down. We dont even know before now realy, as they did no testing.  Look how long it took to test that Vacaville patient, and that patient is in very serious condition.  And, right now, that is the BEST care anyone is ever to get !  An early patient of a new virus,  just the BEST medical care, lots of attention.  More deaths happen if and when a medical system gets overwhelmed.  That patient is intubated.  How many can we take care of at that level of care ?  That is the issue.  If we can slow it down, and not overwhelm the hospitals, then yes, we should get much better outcomes than China.  The going into spring in California may slow it down in California. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on March 01, 2020, 04:31:53 PM
How do you determine if it's BS or the fog of war?

Coin toss??  ???
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 01, 2020, 04:35:44 PM
Fair question. I hate to be so callous but it's numbers. Something happened in China. I don't know what. Once the disease expanded to first world countries the death rate dropped off remarkably quick. People without underlying conditions seem to be fine. In fact it seems to be nothing more than a bad cold to a lot of survivors.

It's a legit disease with great communicability but it just doesn't have legs. Italy is locked down with a few hundred cases and almost no deaths. And while they shut down tourism and schools they kept the trains running. The ports are open.

Something here just doesn't make sense. I'm not making a big conspiracy claim but Corona in California isn't Corona in China.

You have not been [aying attention to the rapid changes in Italy.

Quote
after an earlier warning to avoid non-essential travel to all of Italy, where more than 1,694 cases were confirmed through Sunday -- a 50 percent jump from just 24 hours earlier.

"Reconsider travel to Italy due to a recent outbreak of COVID-19," the earlier advisory stated. "There is an ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 caused by a novel (new) coronavirus in Italy. Many cases of COVID-19 have been associated with travel to or from mainland China or close contact with a travel-related case, but sustained community spread has been reported in Italy."

Five more people infected with the virus have died, bringing the deaths in Italy to 34, of which 83 have fully recovered.

I put "italy corona virus" into my search engine..... https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-outbreak-italy-american-travel-state-department-warning

It is the mathematical progression, this last day the reported cases doubled and 5 more deaths.  Those five deaths are people who have been sick most likely 2 weeks.... so monday will will see --- deaths, tuesday --- deaths....

Quote
The head of Italy’s Civil Protection Agency said the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the virus had jumped to 1,694 from 1,128 on Saturday, virtually all of them coming to light since Feb. 20 in the worst such contagion in Europe.

Of that number, 83 people had fully recovered, while 140 patients were in intensive care. The vast majority of those who have tested positive have few, if any symptoms.

that is 34 deaths and 140 patients in intensive care  and all of this SINCE FEB 20th.   That is 9 days  obviously they contracted it before this 9 days, and were infectious and spreading it

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-italy-idUSKBN20O257
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 01, 2020, 05:41:20 PM
It's a legit disease with great communicability but it just doesn't have legs.

But the mild nature of the disease in the majority of the population just makes it all the more difficult to contain.  That's why were stuck in this mess, because the guy who transmits it to you has the sniffles and isn't bleeding out of their eyeballs.

If a third of the country catches an easily transmissible disease that doesn't appear to be much different than a bad cold, yet 20% of them require hospitalization and 5% of those people still go on to die from it, we could be looking at a 1 million excess deaths. 

And that's if we could manage to scrounge up a enough ventilators to treat 20 million cases of pneumonia.  Which we can't, because we've got less than 100,000 ventilators in this country.  That means were looking at a triage situation where utilitarian ethical decisions get made about who will benefit society the most by getting the respirator necessary to save their life.  That's a really shitty situation for everyone.

Frankly, a lot of older people with chronic medical conditions could miss out on another decade or two of life because there's no hospital capacity, especially when this thing gets into the rural areas that are already limited.  The AARP crowd is going to get hit hardest with this thing, especially the ones in retirement communities and nursing homes, where it's going to spread like wildfire because the single mother healthcare workers can't afford to miss a paycheck so they go in to work with a "bad cold" that's potentially fatal to the people they're taking care of. 



Something here just doesn't make sense. I'm not making a big conspiracy claim but Corona in California isn't Corona in China.

I can see things becoming worse here than in China. 

Our local and federal governments are already squabbling about where to house cruise ship evacuees.  If we do get Wuhan-level cases in the tens of thousands, what are the chances federal, state, and local governments can coordinate an appropriate and timely response, especially if a large part of the country thinks we're just dealing with a bad cold or a hoax/conspiracy theory designed to throw an election by tanking the economy?

What's the likelihood the US can build a couple pop-up hospitals in 10 days outside of Seattle and march 25k medical troops in to staff them?



With our current level of public health resources in this country, give me an Ebola outbreak to manage any day over COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 01, 2020, 06:53:55 PM
It's not deadly outside of China. And we'd be stupid to believe the Chinese can't comprehend the ultrashort indices or the VIX or VXX. Somebody beyond me made a ton of money off an illness that is nothing but sniffles that the Chinese seem to have made up. So just to be clear they sat on the data while having access to our stock market...

I stand by it: there's a lot here that makes no sense. But as a telegraphed punch I've made a lot of money on it. Think of me as evil as a human can be. But do the Chinese government types think different?

Those of us with no souls make money by being a few moves ahead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 01, 2020, 06:56:04 PM
Quote
It's not deadly outside of China.




But I just showed you the incredibly rising death rates from it in Italy

And Freelancer just explained why he is worried it could be worse here

So, is it just your spider sense that feels something is off ?  Or, why do you say "no deaths" when there are clearly alot of deaths for how many have it ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 01, 2020, 07:03:53 PM
Quote
Researchers who have examined the genomes of two coronavirus infections in Washington State say the similarities between the cases suggest the virus may have been spreading in the state for weeks. ...

The findings suggest that the virus has been spreading in the community for close to six weeks...

If that is true, it could mean that anywhere from 150 to 1,500 people “have either been infected and recovered or currently are infected now,”...

Huh.  Now I'm wondering if my wife and I really did have it.  I've heard of zero reported cases here in southeast WA, but I don't think anybody is being tested for it either.

Probably we got poor protection from the flu vaccine and caught Influenza A, but if it were mild COVID-19, how would we ever find out?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 01, 2020, 07:17:05 PM
Probably we got poor protection from the flu vaccine and caught Influenza A, but if it were mild COVID-19, how would we ever find out?

If we develop sufficient antibodies in response to the infection, probably we will be able to find out, but there's some evidence that people are being reinfected with COVID so the state of lasting immunity is kind of up in the air.


I'm getting over a bit of sniffles and cough this weekend, no fever, don't feel that bad.  But if I get up tomorrow and I'm still coughing a little bit, I have to decide whether to go into my local state building and subject my coworkers, one who's recovering from cancer treatments, to my "bad cold."
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 01, 2020, 07:22:42 PM
Public health leaders in King County, Wash., said a man in his 70s with underlying health conditions died on Saturday at EvergreenHealth hospital in Kirkland.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 01, 2020, 07:30:34 PM


Huh.  Now I'm wondering if my wife and I really did have it.  I've heard of zero reported cases here in southeast WA, but I don't think anybody is being tested for it either.

Probably we got poor protection from the flu vaccine and caught Influenza A, but if it were mild COVID-19, how would we ever find out?

This is one reason why we need to decentralize diagnostic testing.  The technology is coming and coronavirus may be the impetus to make it happen.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200206134748.htm (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200206134748.htm)
Portable lab you plug into your phone can diagnose illnesses like coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 01, 2020, 07:46:44 PM
NYT:  Death Near Seattle Adds to Signs Coronavirus Is Spreading in U.S. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/us/washington-coronavirus-nursing-home.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
With testing now ramping up, the Seattle suburb of Kirkland has become an epicenter of both illness and fear, much of it focused on a nursing facility where six coronavirus cases have been confirmed and many more residents and employees have complained of illness.

Health authorities in King County, Wash., announced on Sunday evening that one of the six, a resident of the nursing home, had died of the virus at the EvergreenHealth hospital in Kirkland, and that three more were in critical condition. The death was the second on U.S. soil from the virus; the first also occurred at that hospital.

One-quarter of Kirkland’s firefighters were in quarantine on Sunday because they had been to the nursing facility. A nearby college spent the day cleansing its campus because students had visited the nursing home. The hospital has asked visitors to stay away.

Beyond Kirkland, the King County authorities announced two additional coronavirus cases earlier in the day that were unrelated to the nursing home; those patients were in critical condition at hospitals in Seattle and Renton. Officials were scrambling to assess the risks emerging in schools, medical centers and the major employers that call the region home.

The fear and confusion at the nursing facility and throughout the county presented a vivid and disturbing picture of how much uncertainty surrounds the virus and how many people have the potential to be affected.

Quote
The nursing facility in Kirkland, run by Life Care Centers of America, is full of elderly residents who can be especially vulnerable to respiratory illnesses. Records show that the center has a recent history of illness outbreaks and of difficulty following infection control precautions.

Relatives who had recently visited the facility said it had been coping with illness among residents and staff in recent days, and told all its residents on Friday to stay in their rooms. For a facility of communal living — with a shared dining facility, group movie nights and friends who visit with one another in the halls — that decision prompted concerns among residents and families.


Coming to suburban communities and nursing homes near you.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 01, 2020, 08:16:08 PM
How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) & Treatment:  https://youtu.be/okg7uq_HrhQ (https://youtu.be/okg7uq_HrhQ)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 01, 2020, 08:30:51 PM
Two cases of the virus were identified in Florida late Sunday night, prompting the state to declare a public health emergency.

In an executive order, Gov.  Ron DeSantis said two “presumptive positive” cases were found in state’s Gulf Coast: one in Manatee County, home to Sarasota, and the other in Hillsborough County, home to Tampa.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 01, 2020, 08:39:12 PM


Huh.  Now I'm wondering if my wife and I really did have it.  I've heard of zero reported cases here in southeast WA, but I don't think anybody is being tested for it either.

Probably we got poor protection from the flu vaccine and caught Influenza A, but if it were mild COVID-19, how would we ever find out?

my thoughts exactly.  It was definitely the weirdest bad cold/mild flu I have seen in my family; very different from anything else we have had before.  But no cases in Utah, so obviously we didn't have it last week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 01, 2020, 08:51:21 PM
I mistakenly thought all the COVID-19 viruses currently in circulation are identical.  Nope.  There's a whole family tree of them, branching from an initial ancestor around Nov-Dec 2019.

(http://statler.ws/COVID19-phylogeny-20200301.png)

Here is a tool for viewing the tree:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?c=country&d=tree&p=full

It's interactive and complicated, and I've only been using it a few minutes so don't ask me for instructions.

But anyway, this shows that we are not necessarily getting exactly the same virus strains that knocked out Wuhan.  It's probably too early to hypothesize that less-virulent strains are circulating worldwide, but I'd like to believe that.  Evolution pushes things towards the strain that spreads the best, not the strain that kills the best.  If the viruses spread better by causing milder symptoms, fewer quarantines, and fewer deaths, then those are the strains that will thrive.  This could explain how the initial Wuhan outbreak was so deadly, but many of the later cases have a better survival rate.

Well, it's something to hope for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 01, 2020, 11:57:57 PM
OK, time to call bullshit. If I believe the standard line the Chinese can't build hospitals fast enough and the Iranian government has been decimated yet the Brits who have survived shrug it off like a bad cold. Congrats Corona: You've done what SARS, Ebola, H1N1, and Spanish Flu couldn't get done. You're racist.

Every death in a 1st world country is either an elderly person or a person with underlying conditions or both. I can't for the life of me explain why this is a death sentence in China but in Japan you just hang out on the cruise ship for a couple weeks.

it so happened that yesterday i requested a copy of an not yet fully released of a paper through researchgate.com
I was searching for Covid-19 transmission modeling essays. What caught my eye was that they mentioned that the virus would reach its peak within a range of 4-5 months in the UK, in the brief summary.
I think it is safe to resume the virus was festering way before December in China. (do not forget that we are expecting a geometric mode of propagation).

Secondly, it is widely known that the Chinese still practice "magic potion" (traditional) medicine. That means that by the time the infected turn to hospitals (if ever) they are practical knocking on heaven's gates.
(believe me, my father thinks this and I have seen a cold lasting 40 days)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 02, 2020, 01:02:48 AM
Ok I found the paper elsewhere

A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing
(not yet peer reviewed)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566v1.full.pdf.

exerpts

Quote
The
model in its current form predicts the total number of infections in the community rather than
diagnosed cases.

Quote
in England and Wales has the potential to result in a synchronised
outbreak that peaks at around 4 months following the start of person-to-person transmission.
Our findings suggest that the height of the epidemic and the attack rate is highly dependent on
seasonality of transmission and that even small changes in transmission risk can lead to large
changes in attack rate due to the spatial disaggregation of the population at risk.

Quote
We predict that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of
person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming
biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists
from February, we predict the epidemic peak would occur in June.

Quote
Assuming no difference in transmission rate during the year leads to a
single large epidemic after approximately 4 months (June time if transmission starts in
February), as above. With a 25% reduction in transmission the epidemic is smaller and peaks
later, reducing the overall attack rate by 20%. A 50% reduction in transmission results in a
smaller epidemic before the summer, followed by a resurgence in cases in the following winter.
The attack rate is 10% less than a non-seasonal epidemic. A 75% reduction in transmission
over the summer resulted in a delayed large outbreak, but with a similar attack rate.
If
transmission decreases to zero over the summer then the resulting outbreak is much reduced,
with an attack rate of less than 1%

Quote
The attack
rate for best-guess parameters had a median of 45799874 (81.67% range 81.64-81.69), with a
peak incidence median 1,116,692.

Can someone put the latter exerpt in plain English?


Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on March 02, 2020, 02:45:04 AM
A computer model is going to predict that the virus will peak in June ?  Isn’t that far outside of the typical flu season?  I guess I wouldn’t assume it’s a real flu but perhaps some bio engineered thing but then computer models can also be made to predict anything as well


Quote
Flu season is the time of year when you are most likely to get sick from the flu. In general, flu season can start anytime in late fall, peak in mid-to-late winter (usually January or February), and continue through early spring. On average, flu season lasts about 13 weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 02, 2020, 03:59:20 AM

Secondly, it is widely known that the Chinese still practice "magic potion" (traditional) medicine. That means that by the time the infected turn to hospitals (if ever) they are practical knocking on heaven's gates.

There’s a good chance that the exotic animals they import to make their magic potions are at the origin of this pandemic, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 02, 2020, 11:09:06 AM





But I just showed you the incredibly rising death rates from it in Italy

And Freelancer just explained why he is worried it could be worse here

So, is it just your spider sense that feels something is off ?  Or, why do you say "no deaths" when there are clearly alot of deaths for how many have it ?

I just don't see it that way at all. I think Mr. Bill might be on to something speculating there are different strains but the numbers on this just don't fit together well.

Put this in your head and see if it doesn't pass a logic test... The Chinese did nothing for about 2 months and denied the existence of the disease which then took off and people were dropping like flies. It's crippling Iranian officials but the Japanese can manage it on a cruise ship. Not a medical facility. And people on the cruise ship updated their blogs and played games on the deck. The Brits call it a "bad cold".

So to follow the mainstream and believe their story you'd have to believe that one of the most virulent of diseases was given free reign for months and let leak everywhere globally but it just seems to magically hit Chinese and Iranians because the rest of us seem to recover if not beset with underlying health issues (like a normal flu).

I'm not trying to downplay legit suffering and hardship but there's some hinky math going on. To say nothing that the Italians will cancel kids' kickball games but the ports, airports, trains, roads, and Eurozone borders are wide open is a little like massaging a calf cramp while your aorta is severed.

Something here is not real. I don't know what but I can smell a rat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 02, 2020, 01:36:39 PM
Reuters, 3/2/20: Six dead of coronavirus in Seattle area, U.S. officials scramble to prepare for more cases (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/six-dead-of-coronavirus-in-seattle-area-u-s-officials-scramble-to-prepare-for-more-cases-idUSKBN20P21M)

Quote
...The total number of cases in Washington state was now at 18. Five of the deaths were in King County and one from Snohomish County, also in the Puget Sound region just north of Seattle. ...

Federal health officials have said the number of test kits for coronavirus would be radically expanded in coming weeks. The United States appeared poised for a spike in cases, partly because there would be more testing to confirm infections. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 02, 2020, 02:18:40 PM
...the Japanese can manage it on a cruise ship. Not a medical facility. And people on the cruise ship updated their blogs and played games on the deck. The Brits call it a "bad cold". ...

Well, they sorta managed it.

Umeå University press release, 2/28/20: Quarantine on cruise ship resulted in more Corona patients (https://www.umu.se/en/news/karantan-pa-lyxkryssaren-gav-fler-coronasmittade_8936181/)

Quote
...“The infection rate onboard the vessel was about four times higher than what can be seen on land in the worst infected areas of China. A probable cause is how close people stay to one another onboard a vessel,” says Joacim Rocklöv, Professor of epidemiology at Umeå University and principal author of the article. ...

...Japanese authorities decided to disallow the 3,700 passengers onboard to leave the ship.... Passengers who showed signs of illness were, as far as possible, separated from other passengers onboard. When the quarantine in Yokohama in the end was removed and passengers could finally disembark, a total of 619 passengers had been infected by the coronavirus.

“If the ship had been immediately evacuated upon arrival in Yokohama, and the passengers who tested positive for the coronavirus and potential others in the risk zone had been taken care of, the scenario would have looked quite different. Our calculations show that only around 70 passengers would have been infected. ... The precautionary measure of putting the entire ship under quarantine was understandable, but due to the high risk of transmission on the ship, the decision is now questionable,” says Joacim Rocklöv.

At the same time, the study also shows that if the precautionary measures of isolating potential carriers had not been carried out onboard, another 2,300 people would have been infected. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 02, 2020, 02:35:56 PM
Fake news that is viral in both senses:

AP, 2/28/20: NOT REAL NEWS: An outbreak of virus-related misinformation (https://apnews.com/f8c382a5234bc12ec6d4f5430f8ec2e3)

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 02, 2020, 02:47:03 PM
Well, they sorta managed it.

Umeå University press release, 2/28/20: Quarantine on cruise ship resulted in more Corona patients (https://www.umu.se/en/news/karantan-pa-lyxkryssaren-gav-fler-coronasmittade_8936181/)

Yes. I get that it wasn't perfect. But a far cry from the Chinese sprinting to build hospitals (of questionable repute). But we need to take stock of the fact that the Chinese need total lockdown and hastily built trauma centers for something the Japanese managed albeit not perfectly on a cruise ship. That should be a bit of a head scratcher. Are you better in a Wuhan hospital or a Japanese ship? The answer seems self evident.

I'm also curious about Iran. Traditionally people of Europe and the Mideast are the most immune on earth because we had ancestors who went through the Black Death and a myriad of other plagues. If you are of European or Middle Eastern descent congratulations you are built with the stock that survived cholera and tuberculosis. We're the ones who crawled out of leper colonies. In a sense there's a reason all these odd bugs come from China. Those of us from Mediterranean countries be it Europe, Africa, or the Mideast have been exposed to all the superbugs of history. The Chinese haven't. But it does catch me a little odd that Iran would be so deep in the throes.

There is so much going on here with so many moving parts but I do find  that my nagging questions have at least some stable grounding. Not to make a claim but the whole "hey this makes no sense" thing is sticking with me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Hurricane on March 02, 2020, 05:22:42 PM
More on this:

AP, 2/27/20: New US coronavirus case may be 1st from unknown origin (https://apnews.com/57177e2e35d7d0d518361166935c614e)

Something I'm wondering.  Has this virus been all over the world for months, and mistaken for a generic "influenza-like illness"?  Is it being detected in scattered locations now, only because they are finally testing for it?  This case would have been missed entirely, if somebody hadn't finally ignored the CDC testing guidelines.

If you put this together with the premise that the virus can survive on surfaces for 3-4 weeks, all you have to do is shop at Walmart (china-mart) or Dollar Tree, or, or,  . . .
Or handle parts made in China for products assembled in USA, Italy, Iran, or wherever.
Where do most of our gloves, masks, etc., come from?

That's a whole lot of people who may have been exposed, without meeting the guidelines of contact with someone who came from China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 02, 2020, 05:46:50 PM
If you put this together with the premise that the virus can survive on surfaces for 3-4 weeks...

This is longer than what I've heard so far.  2 hours to 9 days is the current guess, depending on what type of surface it's on.

Mercury News, 2/28/20: How long can coronavirus survive on surfaces? Experts aren’t sure (https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/28/how-long-can-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-experts-arent-sure/)

Quote
...An analysis of 22 earlier studies of similar coronaviruses, including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) published online this month in the Journal of Hospital Infection, concluded that human coronaviruses can remain infectious on inanimate surfaces for up to nine days at room temperature. However, they can quickly be rendered inactive using common disinfectants, and may also dissipate at higher temperatures, the authors wrote. It is not yet clear, however, whether the new coronavirus behaves in a similar way.

“On copper and steel it’s pretty typical, it’s pretty much about two hours,” CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told U.S. lawmakers on Thursday, referring to how long the new coronavirus may be active on those types of materials. “But I will say on other surfaces – cardboard or plastic – it’s longer, and so we are looking at this.”

The agency said there is likely a very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 02, 2020, 09:30:24 PM
NYT:  As Coronavirus Numbers Rise, C.D.C. Testing Comes Under Fire (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/health/coronavirus-testing-cdc.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
The coronavirus has found a crack in the nation’s public health armor, and it is not one that scientists foresaw: diagnostic testing.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention botched its first attempt to mass produce a diagnostic test kit, a discovery made only after officials had shipped hundreds of kits to state laboratories.

A promised replacement took several weeks, and still did not permit state and local laboratories to make final diagnoses. And the C.D.C. essentially ensured that Americans would be tested in very few numbers by imposing stringent and narrow criteria, critics say.

On Monday, following mounting criticism of the federal response, Trump administration officials promised a rapid expansion of the country’s testing capacities. With the help of private companies and academic centers, as many as a million diagnostic tests could be administered by the end of this week, said Dr. Stephen Hahn, commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration.

But many scientists wonder if the moves come too late.


This is a huge CDC screw up and it's really put us behind the curve.  Italy and Spain showed more competence out of the gate in dealing with their outbreaks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 03, 2020, 12:45:40 AM
Fake news that is viral in both senses:

  • There is no evidence that consuming garlic,
that is misleading. Consuming garlic does work.
Large quantities may not stop the virus, but will create a safe distance around you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 03, 2020, 05:56:43 AM
To believe the standard narrative the Chinese ignored a very communicable disease for months and the Americans (who trade with China a little) produced a bogus CDC test kit while this thing had plenty of time for free reign? If it's half as infectious as claimed it's already circled the globe. Let alone the joke job the CDC did in testing and providing PPE for first responders.

I'm going to go out on a limb that for the elderly or those with health conditions this could be bad like the normal flu season. That's not easy for me because it includes my father. But for the rest of us it's not materializing.

I had a bad cold in December. Maybe I already had Corona. The darn thing had a few months head start before we took it seriously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 03, 2020, 06:28:31 AM
I've got to give mad props to Reason's Nick Gillespie for pointing out that the entire presidential field be it Trump or the myriad of Democrats are EXACTLY the target demographic of this disease. Perhaps when Corona takes Trump, Sanders, Warren, Pelosi, the Supremes, McConnell, and the rest Mike Pence will be wandering around Washington all alone wondering what to do now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 03, 2020, 06:39:34 AM
that is misleading. Consuming garlic does work.
Large quantities may not stop the virus, but will create a safe distance around you.

 :rofl:

I've got to give mad props to Reason's Nick Gillespie for pointing out that the entire presidential field be it Trump or the myriad of Democrats are EXACTLY the target demographic of this disease. Perhaps when Corona takes Trump, Sanders, Warren, Pelosi, the Supremes, McConnell, and the rest Mike Pence will be wandering around Washington all alone wondering what to do now.

 :rofl:  great visual
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 03, 2020, 06:45:11 AM
I had a bad cold in December. Maybe I already had Corona. The darn thing had a few months head start before we took it seriously.

Well, you most certainly had a coronavirus as the common cold is one!  It is possible you had COVID-19 but unlikely as genetic sequencing trace the outbreak only to November.  So it would have to be a really early US case.

Regarding the test kits, what I am hearing is that the entire lab in Atlanta producing it was contaminated.  That is why they didn't work.  It just shows how easy it is for accidents to happen at these facilities and how they try to cover it up.  When the testing delays were identified, Pence sent an independent science team to investigate and they found numerous violations of protocols and discovered the contamination.  So they quickly shut down production there and switched it to a new facility.  All will be back up and running by end of the week.  It is already much better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 03, 2020, 02:04:56 PM
Senate hearing today, with top federal health officials speaking.

AP, 3/3/20: In Congress, questions about overdue testing for coronavirus (https://apnews.com/ae8b401344e5bc5ec1617dad2f1a7af5)

Quote
...Health officials have said U.S. labs should have the capacity to run as many as 1 million tests by the end of the week. ...

The head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Dr. Stephen Hahn, said the FDA has been working with a private company to get as many as 2,500 test kits out to labs by the end of the week. Each kit should be able to allow a lab to run about 500 tests, he said. ...

In January, the CDC said it had developed a test kit and sent it to state and big city public health labs, so they could broaden testing to more people. But most of the kits proved to be faulty, providing inconclusive results to test samples that should have tested positive.

The problem was blamed on one of three chemical reagents used in the testing, and the CDC moved to fix the problem.

In a call with reporters on Tuesday, one CDC official acknowledged contamination was one possible explanation, but not the only one.

Dr. Nancy Messonnier refused to say more, except that the agency was ensuring test kits being sent out now “meet the high quality standards that we and FDA hold ourselves to.”

Whatever the reason for the earlier problem, only about a half dozen state and local public health labs had fully functional kits as of early last week. Late last week, the CDC said labs could go ahead and do testing with just two of the reagents. ...

Courthouse News, 3/3/20: Health Officials Debunk Trump Claims on Coronavirus (https://www.courthousenews.com/health-officials-testify-on-coronavirus-response-in-senate/)

Quote
...“When you are in the area of the unknown, you have to walk a delicate balance of not overshooting and having panic,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, “but not also undershooting and be in a situation where you don’t respond as aggressively as you should.” ...

While the spread of respiratory diseases like the seasonal flu slows as the weather warms, Fauci testified that there is no evidence that coronavirus cases will decrease over the next month, as Trump has repeatedly claimed. ...

Experts assured the senators that 80% of coronavirus cases will be mild, with symptoms including a fever and chest cough — and not the sore throat, sneezing and sinus pressure common with the seasonal flu — while 20%, primarily elderly patients, will require hospitalization. ...

Several expert witnesses assured the committee that federal officials are working closely with private manufacturers to develop a vaccine. But Fauci, among them, said while experts are working with record speed, a vaccine will require several testing phases over the next year.

“We hope that we will be able to get good news to you…but there will be no guarantee of that,” Fauci said, contradicting Trump’s claim that a vaccine may be available “relatively soon.”

As for a drug to combat coronavirus, labs are rushing to develop a new treatment. Hahn was unable to confirm as of Tuesday’s hearing whether India restricting the export of 26 active pharmaceutical ingredients as part of the country’s response to the outbreak would slow that push. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 03, 2020, 02:37:55 PM
How to tell whether you have COVID-19 or some other respiratory disease?

I'm seeing some info that is in agreement and other info that says opposite things.  It's generally agreed that COVID-19 will give you a fever and a cough.  If the cough progresses to breathing difficulty, you should try to get medical treatment (but call first, so they can be ready for you).

There doesn't seem to be a clear rule of thumb, like "I had symptom X but not symptom Y, so it must be flu or a cold".

JAMA, 2/28/20: COVID-19—New Insights on a Rapidly Changing Epidemic (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762510)

Quote
...In general, the clinical presentation has involved fever in 83% to 98% of patients, dry cough in 76% to 82%, and fatigue or myalgias in 11% to 44%. Other symptoms have been reported, such as headache, sore throat, abdominal pain, and diarrhea. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 03, 2020, 03:01:06 PM
Medicare for all............patients with coronavirus...

WSJ:  U.S. Weighs Paying Hospitals for Treating Uninsured Coronavirus Patients  (https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-considering-paying-hospitals-for-treating-uninsured-coronavirus-patients-11583258943)

Quote
In natural disasters such as hurricanes, hospitals and medical facilities can be reimbursed under a federal program that pays them about 110% of Medicare rates for treating patients such as those evacuated from hard-hit areas.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has been in discussions about using that program to pay providers who treat uninsured patients with coronavirus, the person said.

Quote
Hospitals, which typically bear the brunt of costs for uncompensated care, have been bracing for an influx of patients. Hospitals of all types provided more than $38 billion in uncompensated care in 2017, according to the American Hospital Association.

“We encourage the department to look at using a national disaster program as an option because no one should think twice about seeking screening or treatment due to costs,” said Tom Nickels, executive vice president of the American Hospital Association. “We also urge them to cover both patients who have coronavirus and those who are under investigation for coronavirus.”

A 1918-like pandemic would cause U.S. hospitals to absorb a net loss of $3.9 billion, or an average $784,592 per hospital, according to a 2007 report in the Journal of Health Care Finance that called on policy makers to consider contingencies to ensure hospitals don’t become insolvent as a result of a severe pandemic.


Rural hospitals were already running at the ragged edge and have no margin to absorb a large influx of uninsured patients.  Coronavirus is going to hit rural areas very hard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 04, 2020, 08:40:46 AM
From my wife's organization.....


Quote
[Organization] is carefully monitoring the ongoing COVID-19 situation as it unfolds both on a global basis and here in our local service areas. Since the earliest days of the virus spread, we have had plans in place to manage any novel coronavirus infected patients we receive.
 
This organization regularly invests substantial time and effort to prepare ourselves to react to significant public health emergencies. As suspected cases arise in the US and across the world, and as additional testing kits become available, it is likely that this hospital, along with many other hospitals, will increase testing for suspected cases. We are following the CDC’s most recent recommendation for how to mitigate the risk of exposure to both other patients as well as our caregivers. To be clear, the fact that we are testing more patients, does not mean we have confirmed cases.
 

Due to widespread misinformation about COVID-19, we are aware you often face challenging interactions with patients, family members, and visitors. We all have a duty and commitment to patient privacy and ethical treatment.
 
As in any case of infectious disease exposure, you will be notified if a patient under your care tests positive for the virus. The testing process could take between 48 hours to five days.
 
The situation with the COVID-19 epidemic is changing on a daily basis. There are several sources for reliable information regarding the virus, including the CDC and the Clinical Epidemiology and Infection Prevention One Portal Page.
 
The safety of our employees, patients, and community is our highest priority during this time. Our hospitals and clinics remain open, safe for patients and visitors, and fully functional. Each of you will play an essential role in how we provide superior, safe care to our patients during this time of increased vigilance.
 
Thank you so much for all you are doing and will continue to do as we address the challenges of this COVID-19 situation. As more information and facts about this virus are confirmed, we will continue to provide the most accurate information to you in a timely way.
 
Thank you for all you do to ensure excellent patient care,

[CEO]



Notice there's nothing about employees staying home with the sniffles or post-exposure quarantine.  Got to steady the troops.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on March 04, 2020, 08:48:40 AM
:rofl:

 :rofl:  great visual

+1  :rofl:
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 04, 2020, 09:45:36 AM
From my wife's organization....

Notice there's nothing about employees staying home with the sniffles or post-exposure quarantine.  Got to steady the troops.

Time and time again, the superspreaders are health care workers.  Obviously they are at high risk of getting diseases.  But why do they blatantly ignore precautions to spreading it so often?

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national-international/2nd-presumed-case-coronavirus-new-hampshire/2085211/?amp (https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national-international/2nd-presumed-case-coronavirus-new-hampshire/2085211/?amp)
NH’s 1st Coronavirus Patient, Told to Stay Isolated, Went to Event Instead
New Hampshire has identified a second, presumptive case of coronavirus in a man who was in close contact with the first patient, who attended an event across the state border in Vermont


New Hampshire's first coronavirus patient, a hospital employee, went to an event tied to Dartmouth business school on Friday despite being told to stay isolated, officials say, and all others who went to the event are now being told to stay isolated.

The announcement on Tuesday came as state health officials said a second person in the state is presumed to have the new coronavirus, COVID-19. That person was in close contact with the first patient, and the officials expect more coronavirus cases may be found as they investigate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 04, 2020, 10:19:16 AM
Same reason they don’t get flu shots. Ignorance, arrogance, selfishness, laziness.  The usual human failings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 04, 2020, 10:36:30 AM
Well, you most certainly had a coronavirus as the common cold is one!  It is possible you had COVID-19 but unlikely as genetic sequencing trace the outbreak only to November.  So it would have to be a really early US case.

Yes but work this through in your head and see if my logic fits. Wuhan is a rail center in China. As one of just a myriad of examples Foxconn operates out of Wisconsin. And we're most certainly under-reporting because for some of us it's just a flu during flu season. I'm not trying to diminish the risk of a bad flu on immuno-compromised people or the elderly but what I've read is that most people just need fluids and OTC fever reducers. Not fun but not the end of the world.

It's also worth remembering that for all the fear talk about how we'll be trapped in iron lungs waiting in line at Walmart for the last square of toilet paper on earth the Japanese managed an outbreak on a cruise ship. Not a medical facility.

I don't know what is going on with this disease but I am sure it has spread globally as the Chinese sat on their hands. I'm not sure what that really means because it seems to effect people differently based on what can only be surmised as genetic resistance and the epicenter in China looks like a basket of lies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 04, 2020, 11:06:03 AM
Italy deaths over 100 prompt school closures across the nation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: bigbear on March 04, 2020, 11:30:34 AM
that is misleading. Consuming garlic does work.
Large quantities may not stop the virus, but will create a safe distance around you.

Agreed.  It's a bat virus after all...   ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 04, 2020, 03:13:57 PM
Definitely not a good look for the CDC.  Glad he persevered, found the problem, and got our ability to test up and running again.

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/03/cdc-blocked-fda-official-premises-119684 (https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/03/cdc-blocked-fda-official-premises-119684)
CDC blocked FDA official from premises
Sent to help the administration’s coronavirus response, a test specialist was stopped at CDC’s door and made to wait overnight.


officials are expressing frustration that a top scientist was initially rebuffed when attempting to visit the CDC in Atlanta last month to help coordinate the government's stalled coronavirus testing
...
Timothy Stenzel, who is the director of the Food and Drug Administration’s Office of In Vitro Diagnostics and Radiological Health, was made to wait overnight on the weekend of Feb. 22 — as senior health department officials negotiated his access in a series of calls — before Centers for Disease Control granted him permission to be on campus. Stenzel's visit had been expected, the individuals said.
...
The FDA had dispatched Stenzel to the CDC in an effort to expedite the development of lab tests for the novel coronavirus outbreak. Problems with the CDC-developed test delayed the Trump administration's plan to expand screening for weeks,
...
Stenzel later found evidence of lab contamination, which he reported to HHS officials and may have contributed to the coronavirus lab-test delays and other problems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 04, 2020, 09:09:08 PM
I mistakenly thought all the COVID-19 viruses currently in circulation are identical.  Nope.  There's a whole family tree of them, branching from an initial ancestor around Nov-Dec 2019. ...

Here is a tool for viewing the tree:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?c=country&d=tree&p=full

Here is a really good explanation of what is going on with this tree.  It covers a lot of technical material, but in (fairly) plain English.  (Credit to our moderator-on-leave Cohutt for finding this.)

Trevor Bedford, 3/2/20: Cryptic transmission of novel coronavirus revealed by genomic epidemiology (https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/)

The focus here is on the Seattle area, as an example of how the science is done.  Take-home lesson for Seattle-area residents:

Quote
...The Seattle Flu Study had screened [COVID-19] viruses from all over the greater Seattle area, however, we got the positive hit in Snohomish County with cases less than 15 miles apart. This by itself would only be suggestive, but combined with the genetic data, is firm evidence for continued transmission. ...

Knowing that transmission was initiated on Jan 15 allows us to estimate the total number of infections that exist in this cluster today [Mar 2]. Our preliminary analysis puts this at 570 with an 90% uncertainty interval of between 80 and 1500 infections. ...

Note this is just one cluster.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 04, 2020, 09:40:49 PM
Woah.  For Iran to do this means that they are really getting hammered.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/04/coronavirus-latest-updates-asia-china-south-korea.html (https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/04/coronavirus-latest-updates-asia-china-south-korea.html)
Iran cancels Friday prayers in major cities as death toll rises
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 04, 2020, 11:00:10 PM
WaPo:  U.S. health system is showing why it’s not ready for a coronavirus pandemic (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/the-us-health-system-is-showing-why-its-not-ready-for-a-coronavirus-pandemic/2020/03/04/7c307bb4-5d61-11ea-b29b-9db42f7803a7_story.html)

Quote
As California announced its first coronavirus-linked fatality on Wednesday, bringing the U.S. death toll to 11, nursing homes were emerging as especially vulnerable to the virus, with more than a million residents, many of them frail. Many of the facilities have a history of struggling to contain even mundane infections.

But the gaps are spread out across the country and affect medical facilities of all types.

Quote
In rural areas of Texas and elsewhere, small hospitals do not have test kits, and central labs for testing samples are hours away. That means hospitals will be unable to conclusively determine whether they have people with covid-19 among their usual seasonal surge in influenza patients.

“There’s not anywhere near a sufficient number of kits to confirm or deny virus, or quarantine or control all these patients,’’ said John Henderson, who heads the association for Texas’s rural hospitals.

Ventilators and intensive care units, necessary to keep the most acutely ill patients alive, are largely limited to larger hospitals and academic medical centers in cities.

Quote
Despite weeks of preparations, health planners continue to fret about shortages of masks and gowns for hospital staff, as well as lifesaving mechanical respirators for patients with severe cases of the disease.

“We need masks, we need ventilators for our medical facilities, and we need it fast,” Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), whose state has experienced the largest fatal outbreak in the country, said on Tuesday.

Quote
Budget-conscious health systems do not maintain large volumes of reserve supplies just for the possibility of a pandemic, said William Jaquis, president of the American College of Emergency Physicians. That leaves the system vulnerable.

Quote
“It runs the gamut — there are some good providers who are really on the ball,” said Sweet, who keeps up with reports from members at nursing homes.

At the better facilities, she said, managers have taken special steps: checking the temperatures of employees as they report for work; reminding family members and vendors to steer clear if they are not feeling well; and running special training for infection control.

At others, members have reported to Sweet, there seems to be no urgency to prepare.

“They’re not prepared at all,” Sweet said. “They are putting their residents in jeopardy.”

Quote
Moreover, many nurse’s aides at such facilities might be reluctant to stay home if they are not feeling well, because they lack sick leave.

“The consensus [among her members] is that they don’t get sick leave,” Sweet said. “There’s a large proportion of single mothers in this group who need to put food on the table, and they’re incentivized to work when sick, unfortunately,” Sweet said.

Quote
If the outbreak expands and individual states have hundreds or thousands of patients instead of just a few, regional plans must be established to coordinate care, said Christopher Greene, an emergency room doctor at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

Severely ill patients needing to be placed on mechanical ventilators, but not all hospitals have them. Many rural hospitals in Texas, have none, for instance will have to be moved to hospitals with higher levels of care;, and that presents further challenges for ambulance operators and staff, Greene said. “This is a rapidly evolving thing. In a matter of days you can go from 60 cases to many, many more,’’ he said. Large hospitals are devising contingency plans for a growing outbreak, he said, but “we want to see that level of urgency at the federal level as well.’

Quote
Rhode Island Hospital has 70 “negative-pressure’’ patient rooms — which means airborne particles cannot escape — that can be used to isolate people. The hospital’s engineers are analyzing how to turn entire floors of the hospital into isolation wards.

The hospital has about 25 patients on ventilators on an average day. It can treat more than 100 people on ventilators in a demand surge, Murphy said. Beyond that, he said, in the worst case, the hospital would be forced to work with state officials to find outside facilities to isolate and treat patients.


This shit's for real, folks, so buckle up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: purplereign on March 05, 2020, 04:17:20 AM
I was surprised that even dogs in china should wear mask..I mean if this won't be controllable then my dogs need to have one and where do I even get that..
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 05, 2020, 08:39:11 AM
On the dog thing, there’s only one case in Hong Kong where human to dog transmission occurred. The dog is being quarantined for viral load monitoring, with no signs of illness and so far no current evidence of dogs transmitting to humans.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: IKN on March 05, 2020, 11:11:51 AM
When are people going to "Wake the F Up" ??
How many decades have the Flu shots been based on what hit China ??

The simple fix for years would have been to stop travel during this time period in or out of China, but "NOOOOO", it will cost big banks and business too much money.
Can't do the back channel deals over the internet, leaves a paper trail we can't get rid of. Can't bring the jobs back to here. Can't do this, can't do that.

Maybe we'll get lucky and it will hit the big money people and their paid defenders (politicians).
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 05, 2020, 11:36:33 AM
Santa Cruz county is setting up large tent like structures, kind of like quonset huts, frame with sturdy synthetic coverings, in the parking lot of the hospital.  Likely this will be all over due to california calling it as official emergency
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 05, 2020, 12:04:55 PM
I'm getting a little fed up with the death rate numbers. We're hovering at about a 2% rate of reported cases. Well that's fine to know but if the vast majority who get this don't get tested we have the denominator way off. We could be seeing a 2% mortality rate on the 10% sickest people. That kind of math really changes the metric. Not that I'd want to live in that world but I suspect if the CDC tested all of us the results would be surprising.

The market is even showing this. We're stocking up on basic storables and durables like rice, flour, toilet paper, paper towels, etc. The bland stuff we need if we're stuck at home for a little while. People are getting in line with a couple weeks of supply chain disruption, not Mad Max.

If anything it's a pretty hopeful sign that people still grasp basic "what I need to live even if it kinda sucks" preparedness. As a community we have a real opportunity to win over converts if we keep our heads out of our asses and recommend some stored food (deep pantry I know we all love), healthy lifestyle, and good hydration. This is prepping 101. It's not about some horrible total collapse. It's having some skills and items so that if things go bad for a little while you can get through. And I wouldn't be heartbroken to see a little renaissance of the Victory Garden.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mintbird on March 05, 2020, 01:05:29 PM
A coworker just passed away after returning from a cruise to Italy. Don’t know if she was tested for covid19 or not but she apparently died of pneumonia after being in intensive care for a week.  :'(
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 05, 2020, 02:43:40 PM
A coworker just passed away after returning from a cruise to Italy. Don’t know if she was tested for covid19 or not but she apparently died of pneumonia after being in intensive care for a week.  :'(

Sorry to hear this...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 05, 2020, 02:58:30 PM
A coworker just passed away after returning from a cruise to Italy. Don’t know if she was tested for covid19 or not but she apparently died of pneumonia after being in intensive care for a week.  :'(

That’s no way to end a vacation. I would hope that public health is able to get confirmation on whether it was coronavirus. 

We’re going find a lot of people who died of pneumonia the last few weeks actually had C19.  It’s been here way longer than we ever expected.

Not sure why anyone would get on a cruise ship this month but I know people who are and it boggles my mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 05, 2020, 03:54:26 PM
Like a rock.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/amp/diamond-princess-cruise-captain-coronavirus/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/travel/amp/diamond-princess-cruise-captain-coronavirus/index.html)
Why the last man standing on the coronavirus cruise ship never gave up
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 05, 2020, 04:04:29 PM
Useful information with link to list that shows ones which may work.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/epa-releases-list-disinfectant-products-approved-kill-covid/story?id=69412861 (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/epa-releases-list-disinfectant-products-approved-kill-covid/story?id=69412861)
EPA releases list of approved disinfectants to kill coronavirus, and why homemade sanitizer won’t work
The list includes multiple products from brands such as Clorox and Lysol[./b]
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 05, 2020, 05:54:57 PM
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/epa-releases-list-disinfectant-products-approved-kill-covid/story?id=69412861 (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/epa-releases-list-disinfectant-products-approved-kill-covid/story?id=69412861)
EPA releases list of approved disinfectants to kill coronavirus, and why homemade sanitizer won’t work
The list includes multiple products from brands such as Clorox and Lysol[./b]

Good info.

I wish the article had said more about homemade hand sanitizers.  If you Google this, you'll find lots of recipes for alcohol-free "sanitizers" that nobody has actually tested (but they have essential oils and aloe, so they must be good!).

The best suggestion I saw was to start with 95-99% alcohol and add some aloe vera gel to thicken it (making sure the alcohol concentration stays above 60%).  I'm not gonna recommend this without test results, but if I ran out of sanitizer gel, I'd probably try it.

Of course, stores are now running out of alcohol too!
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 06, 2020, 08:11:41 PM
They are having a hard time suppressing the stories:

https://youtu.be/m5fsidSOJMw (https://youtu.be/m5fsidSOJMw)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 06, 2020, 09:22:27 PM
WSJ:  Coronavirus Test Kits Aren’t Keeping Up With Surging U.S. Demand  (https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-test-kits-arent-keeping-up-with-surging-u-s-demand-11583539038?mod=hp_lead_pos2)

Quote
States on the front lines of the coronavirus fight are complaining about the availability of test kits, exposing strains in the nation’s battle to contain the epidemic.

Quote
A representative of the CDC didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The CDC is now shipping hundreds of test kits. Some public health labs and private lab companies have also rolled out their own test kits. Large commercial lab companies including LabCorp and Quest Diagnostics Inc. are launching coronavirus testing services.

That has increased the capacity to test samples to thousands of people a day, a marked improvement from the relative few the CDC was able to evaluate at its Atlanta laboratories while it tried to work out the kinks in a test it had developed.

Yet the improvement isn’t enough, public-health experts and government officials say, especially after the CDC recently broadened the criteria for testing to anyone who shows signs or symptoms, had traveled to a country with an outbreak or come into contact with a confirmed case.

Quote
“We don’t have enough tests today to meet what we anticipate will be the demand going forward,” acknowledged Vice President Mike Pence, who is leading the administration’s response to the outbreak, during a visit to a 3M Co. facility in Minnesota on Thursday.

The Health and Human Services department didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment Friday.


The most capable country on earth gets a two month heads up on the biggest airborne pandemic in the last century and still can't get its shit together.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 06, 2020, 09:45:45 PM
Jaw-dropping story of how COVID-19 spread through the nursing home in Kirkland WA:

KUOW, 3/6/20: The ominous days leading up to the coronavirus outbreak at Life Care Center in Kirkland (https://www.kuow.org/stories/the-days-leading-up-to-the-outbreak-at-life-care-center-in-kirkland)

Quote
...On Friday, the firefighter arrived at Life Care, walked in, and saw a charge nurse in just her scrubs. No mask, no protective gown.

“Hey, you guys are supposed to be in self-quarantine,” the firefighter said.

“No, we’re not,” the nurse replied.

“Well, our chain of command talked to your management, and they say something different.”

The nurse insisted; she hadn’t heard anything, she said.

The firefighter looked down the hall and saw two caregivers in scrubs -- no mask or gown.

“What the hell?” the firefighter thought. “Who is not telling you that you have two suspected coronavirus cases?”

Later the nurse and firefighters would learn that it was more than just two suspected cases: Two people from Life Care had died the week before from coronavirus. Eight more who had spent time at Life Care would die in the following week. ...

Hearing [news of the first death], Kevin Connolly and his wife, Jody, were shocked, he wrote on Facebook. Jody’s father was there, but Life Care had not called about a possible outbreak, he wrote.

The Connollys called Life Care, where a receptionist “told us not to believe everything you hear on the news,” Connolly said on Facebook.

Residents did not know they were living amid an outbreak, he said. Staff were given masks, but residents were not. ...

By Thursday, nine people from Life Care in Kirkland would be dead, of presumed coronavirus. Life Care residents would make up 21/33 of the confirmed coronavirus cases.

Kevin Connolly took to Facebook again.

“There has been another death overnight,” he wrote. “At 3:30 a.m. one amongst us was informed her mother had passed.

“Seven hours later, around 10:30 a.m., that same person received a phone call from their Life Care Center assigned clinical representative and told her mother was doing great, no fever, showing no symptoms. When the family member told her she had been informed hours [earlier] that her mother had died, the representative simply replied that the chart must not have been updated!” ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 06, 2020, 09:46:46 PM
NYT:  How to Quarantine Yourself (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/health/self-quarantine-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
It may sound like a vacation from reality, an ideal time to binge on Netflix and catch up on sleep. In fact, it’s not easy to lock yourself away from family and friends. There are practical and logistical challenges, and yawning gaps in the official advice that make it even harder.

Quote
The basics

Isolation If you are infected or have been exposed to the coronavirus, you must seclude yourself........

Masks If you must be around other people — in your home, or in a car, because you’re on your way to see a doctor, and only after you called first — you should wear a mask, and everyone else should, too......

Hygiene If you cough or sneeze, you should cover your mouth and nose with a tissue, and discard the used tissue in a lined trash can. Then you must immediately wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.......

Disinfect Don’t share dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels or bedding with anyone (including your pets). Wash these items after you use them.......

Monitoring Keep an eye on your health and call a doctor if your symptoms are getting worse. Make sure to tell the medical staff you are being monitored for the coronavirus.......

Quote
No one pays you for self-quarantine. There is no reimbursement for products you may need, no government-paid nurse to stop by the home and help out. Self-quarantine is a hardship for both those who have families and those who live alone.

Not everyone can work remotely. A two-week absence from work can take an enormous financial toll on hourly wage workers who have to clock in and show up to get paid, or who are part of the gig economy with no single employer.

Many Americans, maybe most, live paycheck to paycheck.

“We have to have social interventions to incentivize and support isolation, or we are doomed,” said Arthur Caplan, professor of bioethics at New York University Langone Medical Center.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 06, 2020, 10:12:53 PM
Jaw-dropping story of how COVID-19 spread through the nursing home in Kirkland WA:

There's no more ideal environment for spreading this disease to the highest number of people who will go on to die from it than a nursing home.  The most susceptible cared for by the most incompetent.


We're not going to be able to contain the spread of this disease in the general population, that ship has sailed.  Our best option at this point is to figure out how to isolate the oldest and the sickest from the rest of us.  If you or anyone you knows fits into that category, get working on how you can pull that off on your own because society flat out can't manage it without a large number of vulnerable people dying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 07, 2020, 09:09:54 AM
...Our best option at this point is to figure out how to isolate the oldest and the sickest from the rest of us.  If you or anyone you knows fits into that category, get working on how you can pull that off on your own because society flat out can't manage it without a large number of vulnerable people dying.

Yeah, my parents, mid-90s.  700 miles away, no nearby relatives, already semi-dependent on in-home caregivers.  Keeping up with daily needs NOW is more than they can handle -- COVID-19 prepping has been nil.  Mom has about a tablespoon of hand sanitizer in the house.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 07, 2020, 12:30:25 PM
Couthouse News, 3/5/20: Top Virologist Says Diagnostic Roadblocks Stifle Tracking of Coronavirus (https://www.courthousenews.com/top-virologist-says-diagnostic-roadblocks-stifle-tracking-of-coronavirus/)

Quote
...Dr. Christian Brechot, president of the Global Virus Network and professor at the University of South Florida, said in an interview that tracking the spread of the coronavirus has been hampered because diagnostic kits cannot detect cases of the virus in people who recovered from their infection or experienced no symptoms. ...

The available diagnostic kits in the U.S. and abroad aim to detect viral RNA molecules in patients’ saliva and nasal swabs. The kits are effective at diagnosing active infections, Brechot said. What we don’t have yet are serology-based kits that can detect the immune system’s antibodies to the virus, a test method that would help identify people who have been exposed to the virus but did not develop severe infection. ...

The physician and researcher explained that the challenge in developing this second type of test lies in making sure the results do not conflate the new, more deadly coronavirus strain with common coronavirus strains.

“The problem is that each year, we have several coronaviruses that are infecting humans. We just call those the common cold. When you want to detect this new strain, you have cross-reactivity with the other viruses,” Brechot noted. “You don’t know whether you are detecting COVID-19 or remnant signals of exposure to mundane viruses.”

Researchers ran into the same challenge when trying to develop serology-based diagnostics for SARS-1 coronavirus, which generated a 2002-2003 China epidemic that killed more than 700 people.

If the serology-based tests were available, Brechot said, we might be “surprised to find how many individuals” have been exposed to the new COVID-19 strain but “are absolutely healthy and recovered without symptoms.” ...

When asked if labs in the U.S. should have started blanket testing on patients with unexplained respiratory illness earlier, the doctor said: “Likely yes, but they were unable to do it.”

“This is not specific to the U.S. The same has happened in France and Italy. It’s a new virus, so they were unable to use existing diagnostic kits,” Brechot said. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 07, 2020, 12:34:36 PM
Useful information with link to list that shows ones which may work.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/epa-releases-list-disinfectant-products-approved-kill-covid/story?id=69412861 (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/epa-releases-list-disinfectant-products-approved-kill-covid/story?id=69412861)
EPA releases list of approved disinfectants to kill coronavirus, and why homemade sanitizer won’t work
The list includes multiple products from brands such as Clorox and Lysol[./b]

The list though looks to be made for institutional use, so most things on the list are not in regular stores, and the only regular thing, realy, is chlorox.  It would be nice if they could give recomendations for regular households and people of limited means especially instead of just a run on anything with "lysol" or 'Chlorox" in the name, which is all the standar dperson got out of that, not the exact item.  SO, great money maker for them, and panic for the average person who cant find that name brand on the shelf !

For example, why not tell people that hydrogen peroxide or a spray bottle with dilute generic chlorine bleach solution and some cleaning rags, and that the cleaning rags can go into a bucket or container until they build up, out of the reach of small children, and can be tossed in the washer and dryer and re-used ? 

Quote
Abstract

The effect of H2O2 on adenovirus types 3 and 6, adenoassociated virus type 4, rhinoviruses 1A, 1B, and type 7, myxoviruses, influenza A and B, respiratory syncytial virus, strain Long, and coronavirus strain 229E was studied in vitro, using different H2O2 concentration and timec of exposure. H2O2 in a 3 percent concentration inactivated all the viruses under study within 1--30 min. Coronavirus and influenza viruses were found to be most sensitive. Reoviruses, adenoviruses and adenoassociated virus were relatively stable. H2O2 is a convenient means for virus inactivation.

PMID:
    203115

    [Indexed for MEDLINE]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/203115

And that rubbing alcohol, 60% or greater, any generic brand, also kills the virus on hands or surfaces..... and it can be safely thickened, althoug I hear it is now harder to get aloe vera as the recipes go around, but it doenst need that ! You can put the alcohol in a small spray bottle and rub it into hands ( which is what the EO and other non-chemical commercial hand sanitizers are, small spray bottle of alcohol and a few essential oils )

Quote
Specifically, Miryam Wahrman, a biology professor at William Paterson University who wrote "The Hand Book: Surviving in a Germ-Filled World," told Insider a recipe with 70% alcohol should be nine parts alcohol to one part aloe vera. A recipe with 99% alcohol could be three parts alcohol to two parts aloe vera.
OregonLive recommends a two-to-one ratio of 91% isopropyl alcohol to aloe vera. You can also add eight to 10 drops of scented oil if you want to smell nice.
To make your own disinfecting wipes, simply take a paper towel or tissue, dab it in rubbing alcohol (or any type of solution that is at least 60% alcohol), and wipe down whatever surface you'd like to clean.
Even before the coronavirus outbreak, Wahrman did this to her phone daily. She also does it to remote controls when traveling. 
After cleaning her phone with an alcohol-moistened tissue, "it looks nice and squeaky clean," she said, adding, "And I know most of the germs I've picked up along the way have been killed and somewhat removed."

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 07, 2020, 12:59:09 PM
The list though looks to be made for institutional use, so most things on the list are not in regular stores, and the only regular thing, realy, is chlorox.  It would be nice if they could give recomendations for regular households and people of limited means especially instead of just a run on anything with "lysol" or 'Chlorox" in the name, which is all the standar dperson got out of that, not the exact item.  SO, great money maker for them, and panic for the average person who cant find that name brand on the shelf !

Well, Clorox and Lysol are the market leading brands available pretty much everywhere; target, walmart, club stores, amazon.  And many people already have these at home so they are telling them they dont need to buy something special from a pharmacy.  We had three of them already in house that were just day-to-day cleaning supplies.  These are very common:

777-127 LYSOL® DISINEFCTANT MAX COVER MIST RECKITT BENCKISER RTU
777-132 LYSOL BRAND POWER PLUS TOILET BOWL CLEANER RECKITT BENCKISER RTU
777-70 LYSOL BRAND CLING & FRESH TOILET BOWL CLEANER RECKITT BENCKISER RTU
777-81 LYSOL BRAND LIME & RUST TOILET BOWL CLEANER RECKITT BENCKISER RTU
777-83 LYSOL BRAND BLEACH MOLD AND MILDEW REMOVER RECKITT BENCKISER RTU
777-89 LYSOL BRAND CLEAN & FRESH RECKITT BENCKISER DILUTABLE
5813-105 Clorox Multi Surface Cleaner + Bleach The Clorox Company RTU
5813-110 Clorox Pet Solutions Advanced Formula Disinfecting Stain & Odor Remover The Clorox Company
RTU 5813-111 Clorox Disinfecting Bleach2 The Clorox Company DILUTABLE
5813-114 Clorox Performance Bleach1 The Clorox Company DILUTABLE
5813-115 Clorox Germicidal Bleach3 The Clorox Company
RTU 5813-21 Clorox Clean Up Cleaner + Bleach The Clorox Company
RTU 5813-40 Clorox Disinfecting Bathroom Cleaner The Clorox Company
RTU 5813-79 Clorox Disinfecting Wipes The Clorox Company WIPE
5813-89 Clorox Toilet Bowl Cleaner with Bleach The Clorox Company RTU
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 07, 2020, 02:49:32 PM
Yes, they sell the clorox brand all over, but it is mostly sold out.  It is not that the information isnt useful it is.  It is that the information is insufficient as other things that are cheaper and more available will also work.  What you just posted is lysol for toilet bowl and only clorox brand otherwise.  This is great for clorox brand of course.  So, like I said, good info to reassure those that have that brand in their house, but it could panic others.  SO, to be sufficient information they, .gov, should give consumers a complete list of what does and doesnt work.  Otherwise, we get what we just got, clorox wipes sold out from store shelves and consumers not knowing that they can buy hydrogen peroxide or genric bleach and a spray bottle.  We pay these agancies ALOT of money, the employees, seems they could easily have a second sheet made up along with the institutional list they already had.  That way people would not panic and could substitute, and for many, save money. 

My household typically cleans with vinegar on surfaces.  But, I have no info on that working or not for this virus, so a good thing I did my own research and found that I could safely use hydrogen peroxide. 

Many people are low income, even if their area has clorox brand wipes on the shelf.  If they would be told that a rag or paper towel and generic bleach or hydrogen peroxide would work also, they wouldnt panic over not having enough clorox brand wipes and also would be able to buy the needed product. Wlamsrt sells 32 oz bottle of hydrogen peroxide for 88 cents.  Generic bleach is also very cheap.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 07, 2020, 03:53:01 PM
WSJ:  Italy Plans Large-Scale Lockdown in Country’s North to Fight Coronavirus (https://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-plans-large-scale-lockdown-in-countrys-north-to-fight-coronavirus-11583613874?mod=hp_lead_pos2)

Quote
The Italian government is planning to lock down 16 million people—more than a quarter of its population, including the region around Milan and 11 provinces in nearby regions—in the most sweeping steps any European country has prepared to take against the coronavirus epidemic.

A draft decree from the Italian Prime Minister’s office, seen by The Wall Street Journal, says people living in Lombardy, where Milan is the capital, and 11 named provinces in Lombardy’s nearby regions must “absolutely avoid any movement into and out of the areas.”

Police, emergency services and if needed the army will be available to enforce the quarantine. People violating the lockdown can be punished with a fine or jail terms, according to the draft decree.

The government hasn’t yet taken a final decision, but one could come on Saturday night, according to two Italian officials. The quarantine would take effect on Sunday and run until April 3, according to the draft decree.

Italy, which has had the largest number of infections outside Asia, is a test of how far Western countries are willing and able to curtail personal freedom of movement and lifestyle in order to contain the epidemic.


I think Italy is our best preview, thus far, into what's in store.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 07, 2020, 05:30:09 PM
I think Italy is our best preview, thus far, into what's in store.

Mmm.. I've been to Milan. It's got great food and style and I loved it. But it's also a city where the ground floor of every building is a locked garage door covered in graffiti. They planted trees on rooftops just to have trees. And the hotel that had me shower naked in a window visible from the street also had so many pigeons crapping on the cars that they all turned white.

Milan is something of a Euro misfit. The Milanese regard themselves as the motor power of Italy and it's true they host the industry and fashion of the country it's not the same as America.

As a warning sign, Milan is but an hour's drive to Germany and Switzerland. If this is a danger we're talking an open border that runs the middle of Europe. Americans don't think this way but the freeway signs in north Italy are in German. Driving across Germany or France is like driving across Wisconsin. Texas is bigger than all Euro countries. And by Euro rule if it's in Italy it's in Britain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 07, 2020, 07:18:19 PM
Harvard epidemiologist:  U.S. failed miserably to block coronavirus, now the outlook’s grim (https://www.theday.com/op-edguest-opinions/20200306/us-failed-miserably-to-block-coronavirus-now-outlooks-grim)

Quote
The first thing officials need when responding to an infectious disease is a way to test for it, a way to tell who has it and who is at risk. Dozens of such test procedures have been produced in the scant weeks since COVID-19 announced itself to the world by shutting down Wuhan, China, a city the size of New York. Public health agencies around the globe have generated huge amounts of data on how well these tests work and have rolled them out on a massive scale. South Korea alone has tested more than 100,000 of its citizens.

But the United States has lagged far behind the rest of the world in testing. As a result, outbreaks here are likely to be more numerous and more difficult to control than they would have been otherwise. I research infectious disease and how to fight it. So I know how important it is to detect outbreaks early. The COVID-19 outbreak is the largest acute infectious-disease emergency most of us have experienced. And we may have let it go undetected here for too long.

Quote
Singapore enjoys an exceptional capacity for high-quality outbreak investigation, partly as a legacy of the 2003 SARS outbreak, which hit it hard. They take contact-tracing seriously there. The city-state was among the first international locations to report cases of COVID-19 exported from Wuhan.

Understanding that if you test only people connected to known cases, you are just one missed infection from losing track of the transmission chain, Singapore authorities tested cases of respiratory disease that were negative for other viral pathogens, which meant they might have been the result of COVID-19 transmission chains that had escaped detection. This aggressive testing almost immediately found four infections with no known contacts with other cases. Diligent contact tracing has managed to keep a lid on the outbreak, and, despite reporting its first case on Jan. 23, Singapore's total as of Thursday was only 117 cases, with no deaths. It is a remarkable achievement.

And yet as of late February, when the first case of COVID-19 without links to known cases in the United States was detected in California, fewer than 500 tests had been conducted to detect transmission in this country.

Quote
The U.S. should have tested early and tested often.

We left the door open and made little attempt to spot it as it tiptoed in and got established. It is hard to understand how this could have happened.


Expanded version behind WaPo paywall:  Testing for the coronavirus might have stopped it. Now it’s too late. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/coronavirus-testing-united-states/2020/03/05/a6ced5aa-5f0f-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html)

Quote
Estimates suggest that about 1 in 50 people known to be infected die, so multiply the number of deaths by 50 to estimate the total cases. But that is not enough. It takes people quite a few weeks to die of covid-19, so when there’s a death, we have to go back to when that person was infected and ask how the outbreak grew since then. Current estimates say that it takes about a week for the number of cases to double, though there’s considerable uncertainty around the exact number. But if for each death, there were 49 other infections in the community when the patient who died became infected, then one week later, those cases would have grown to 98; after two weeks, to 196. If the patient dies three weeks after contracting covid-19, by that time, we would expect about 392 cases. That means for each dead body, a community already has hundreds of other cases, infected and infectious.

Explanations for this shortfall in basic outbreak response in the United States range from the bureaucratic (confusion among federal and state agencies) to the scientific (which test is the best?) and the economic (who pays?). While U.S. officials talk about how to fix things, South Korea has drive-through testing facilities. On Wednesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that coronavirus testing is now available for anyone, with a doctor’s approval, which is great news. But making test kits is one thing. Using them on patients requires trained professionals to deploy them. And even those professionals aren’t getting tested quickly enough to help slow the virus’s spread; I know of people right now, some of them front-line health-care workers (a group at particular risk for covid-19), who are sick and struggling to get tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 07, 2020, 07:40:14 PM
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-can-coronavirus-live-on-surfaces-how-to-disinfect-2020-3

Quote
A study published this week in the Journal of Hospital Infection looked at the lifespans of other coronaviruses found in humans on various surfaces. The SARS coronavirus — at a temperature of 68 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) — lasts for two days on steel; four days on wood and glass; and five days on metal, plastic, and ceramics. (The researchers also found that one strain of SARS lasted up to nine days on a plastic surface at room temperature.)

SARS only survives between two and eight hours on aluminum, and less than eight hours on latex.

According to Graham, these findings likely apply to the new coronavirus, since smooth, nonporous surfaces like doorknobs and tabletops are better at carrying viruses in general. Porous surfaces — like money, hair, and fabric — do not allow viruses to survive as long because the minute spaces or holes in those materials can trap the microbe and prevent its transfer, Graham said.

also talks about effects of temperature, etc... and what can kill it

Quote
The authors of the recent study noted that human coronaviruses could be "efficiently inactivated" on surfaces within one minute if they're cleaned with solutions containing 62%-71% ethanol alcohol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide, or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite.

"We expect a similar effect against the SARS-CoV-2,"
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 07, 2020, 07:58:49 PM
The quarantine of N. Italy is official:  “We are facing an emergency, a national emergency,” Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said in announcing the government decree in a news conference after 2 a.m. 

Funerals and cultural events are all banned. People can't get closer than a distance of one meter, including in sporting events, bars and supermarkets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 07, 2020, 08:20:07 PM
This study says that all masks, any masks help slow down disease transmission.  It also says they are more effective on the healthy person, slowing down "inward" transmission than on the sick patient, not to mention that compliance on a sick individual who cannot breath well or needs to cough would be poor.  It makes a good case that perfection is not needed to be helpful, bringing down the R0 will slow down the epidemic.  Maybe this is why countries with strong mask use culturally like Japan and South Korea are (so we think) keeping transmission slower than, for example Italy, or what we will see in the USA. 

Quote
All types of masks reduced aerosol exposure, relatively stable over time, unaffected by duration of wear or type of activity, but with a high degree of individual variation. Personal respirators were more efficient than surgical masks, which were more efficient than home-made masks. Regardless of mask type, children were less well protected. Outward protection (mask wearing by a mechanical head) was less effective than inward protection (mask wearing by healthy volunteers).
Conclusions/Significance

Any type of general mask use is likely to decrease viral exposure and infection risk on a population level, in spite of imperfect fit and imperfect adherence, personal respirators providing most protection. Masks worn by patients may not offer as great a degree of protection against aerosol transmission.
Go to:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2440799/

This of course is directly opposite than what we are being told by officials.  I believe that we are being told this to keep people from further panic as we do not have enough masks for the public
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 07, 2020, 08:29:42 PM
Hey look, we are popular!

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/06/europe/coronavirus-preppers-business-europe-gbr-intl/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/06/europe/coronavirus-preppers-business-europe-gbr-intl/index.html)
'Preppers' have endured years of mockery. Coronavirus fears have given them a booming self-survival business
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 08, 2020, 07:32:56 AM
A man fearing coronavirus sprays an Asian man in the subway with Febreeze.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28wo1vuL8oY

And the health officer from Santa Clara California licks her finger to turn a page while delivering a speech about not touching your face.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL9ru777zBI

People are collectively losing their minds. We're about 3 days from dudes wearing pantyhose over their face as a filter. Just my $0.02 but most people who use most masks don't use them correctly and those of us from medical or hazmat training cringe.

If I had one piece of advice... Don't lose your head. Stay aware and be safe but borderline battery on the subway makes us all look nuts. And instigating a fight may be the dumbest way to prevent disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 08, 2020, 11:35:02 AM
This is why Delta's move to allow your own devices to hook into entertainment system was smart.  There is no need to have touchscreens on seatbacks.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/airplane-flying-coronavirus-spread.html#click=https://t.co/06IuEBdu2V (https://www.nytimes.com/article/airplane-flying-coronavirus-spread.html#click=https://t.co/06IuEBdu2V)
How to Disinfect Your Space on an Airplane
Here are some tips for cleaning your area of a plane and keeping healthy on a flight.


Dr. Hertzberg added that if there’s a touch-screen television, you should use a tissue when touching the screen. Using a paper towel or tissue ensures that there’s a barrier between a surface that might have droplets and your hands, which will likely make their way to your face.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 08, 2020, 01:45:22 PM
Fox:  Fauci says 'anything is possible' when asked about widespread coronavirus quarantine (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fauci-says-anything-is-possible-when-asked-about-widespread-coronavirus-quarantine)

Quote
Speaking during an interview on “Fox News Sunday,” Fauci said that “anything is possible” when asked if measures like those currently being imposed in Italy could be enacted in the U.S. to help prevent the continued spread of the coronavirus.

“I don’t think it would be as draconian as nobody in or nobody out,” Fauci said. “But if we continue to get cases like this, particularly at the community level, there will be what we call 'mitigation,' where we have to essentially do social distancing, keep people out of crowded places, take a look at seriousness, do you really need to travel, and I think it’s particularly important among the most vulnerable.”

He added: “You know, you don’t want to alarm people, but given the spread we’ve seen, you know, anything’s possible. And that’s the reason why we’ve got to be prepared to take whatever action is appropriate to contain and mitigate the outbreak.”

Quote
Fauci also cautioned people most at risk of dying from the coronavirus or complications relating to it – the elderly and people with preexisting conditions – to keep their distance from places where they could contract the virus, and to avoid any unnecessary travel.

“If you are an individual that has an underlying condition, particularly an elderly person with an underlying condition, right now you should start to distance yourself from the risk: crowds, getting on a plane, on a long plane trip, and above all, don’t get on a cruise ship,” he said. “That is a health issue.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 08, 2020, 02:56:01 PM
(https://d1yoaun8syyxxt.cloudfront.net/bd229-c88e500a-7759-47fc-a8db-70b66c26f234-v2)
(https://d1yoaun8syyxxt.cloudfront.net/bd229-f2e4fcf9-780d-412a-a831-f2537e5eb036-v2)
(https://d1yoaun8syyxxt.cloudfront.net/bd229-a6070a98-077e-4d7a-97aa-b4a778284f99-v2)
(https://d1yoaun8syyxxt.cloudfront.net/bd229-d1fe7342-f403-4f22-9103-b7362ee4b952-v2)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on March 08, 2020, 02:59:16 PM
Kinda Lol, but whatever works!
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 09, 2020, 01:46:23 PM
ArsTechnica has a really good article covering pretty much everything about COVID-19.  They are updating this article daily at 3PM Eastern time.

Don’t Panic: The comprehensive Ars Technica guide to the coronavirus (https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/)

A few useful bits from the current version:

Quote
What are the symptoms?

COVID-19 is a disease with a range of symptoms and severities, and we are still learning about the full spectrum. So far, it seems to span from mild or potentially asymptomatic cases all the way to moderate pneumonia, severe pneumonia, respiratory distress, organ failure and, for some, death. ...

According to data from nearly 56,000 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients in China, the rundown of common symptoms went as follows:

    88 percent had a fever
    68 percent had a dry cough
    38 percent had fatigue
    33 percent coughed up phlegm
    19 percent had shortness of breath
    15 percent had joint or muscle pain
    14 percent had a sore throat
    14 percent headache
    11 percent had chills
    5 percent had nausea or vomiting
    5 percent had nasal congestion
    4 percent had diarrhea
    Less than one percent coughed up blood or blood-stained mucus
    Less than one percent had watery eyes

Quote
How long does COVID-19 last?

On average, it takes five to six days from the day you are infected with SARS-CoV-2 until you develop symptoms of COVID-19. This pre-symptomatic period—also known as "incubation"—can range from one to 14 days.

From there, those with mild disease tend to recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe cases can take three to six weeks to recover...

Quote
How does SARS-CoV-2 spread?

SARS-CoV-2 spreads mainly in respiratory droplets—tiny, germ-toting globs that are launched from the mouth or nose when you breathe heavily, talk, cough, or sneeze. ... Once airborne, these fall rapidly onto the ground and typically don’t land more than one meter away. SARS-CoV-2 does not linger in the air.

If any droplets containing SARS-CoV-2 land on a nearby person and gain access to the eyes, nose, or mouth—or are delivered there by a germy hand—that person can get infected.

If droplets containing SARS-CoV-2 land on surfaces, they can get picked up by others who can then contract the infection. ...

It is unclear how long SARS-CoV-2 can survive on a surface. A recent review published in The Journal of Hospital Infection suggested that human-infecting coronaviruses in general may be able to survive on surfaces for up to nine days.

For now, the WHO says SARS-CoV-2 may survive on surfaces for anywhere from a few hours to several days. ...

...SARS-CoV-2 is quickly killed by disinfecting agents. As the review of coronavirus surface survival reported, the viruses are “efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62–71 percent ethanol, 0.5 percent hydrogen peroxide, or 0.1 percent sodium hypochlorite (bleach) within 1 minute.”

Last, genetic material from SARS-CoV-2 does seem to be shed in some patients' feces—potentially in up to 30 percent of patients...  “However, ...the fecal-oral route does not appear to be a driver of COVID-19 transmission.” Moreover, routine bathroom cleaning efficiently eliminated the infectious threat...

For COVID-19, the data indicates that people coughing and sneezing are the biggest drivers of the spread of SARS-CoV-2. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 09, 2020, 03:36:57 PM
ArsTechnica has a really good article covering pretty much everything about COVID-19.  They are updating this article daily at 3PM Eastern time.

Don’t Panic: The comprehensive Ars Technica guide to the coronavirus (https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/)

A few useful bits from the current version:

thank you.  I have been wondering about some of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: CandyGram4Mongo on March 09, 2020, 04:03:15 PM
Not sure it could be as simple as ensuring adequate levels of selenium are present in your blood but I'm willing to take that chance.
Bottom line: 2 Brazil nuts a day keeps the pandemic away.
The money quote: "The only people that can be infected by the 2019-n Coronavirus have less than 98.7 µg/L of Selenium in plasma or serum.  Those who have enough Selenium are immune to this and all other enveloped viruses. Selenium can be obtained from Brazil nuts, Selenium pills or Astragalus tea."

Summary article: https://www.facebook.com/notes/richard-sexton/lipinski-2015-ebola-and-selenium-how-not-to-catch-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-201/10156477705211673/ (https://www.facebook.com/notes/richard-sexton/lipinski-2015-ebola-and-selenium-how-not-to-catch-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-201/10156477705211673/)

Reprint of research originally published in the British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research:
https://www.facebook.com/notes/richard-sexton/lipinski-2015-ebola-and-selenium-how-not-to-catch-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-201/10156477705211673/ (https://www.facebook.com/notes/richard-sexton/lipinski-2015-ebola-and-selenium-how-not-to-catch-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-201/10156477705211673/)

If you can shoot this full of holes please comment.  If not, maybe make this post sticky just in case it *is* this simple?  One other thing - note that Vitamin C blunts the effect per the BJMMR article.

PS the peer reviews are published here and seem to indicate a lot of credibility, although the original context was about Ebola: http://www.sciencedomain.org/review-history.php?iid=722&id=12&aid=7276 (http://www.sciencedomain.org/review-history.php?iid=722&id=12&aid=7276)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 09, 2020, 04:30:26 PM
All 60 million Italians are now locked down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: CandyGram4Mongo on March 09, 2020, 04:47:38 PM
Correction: here's the link to the re-post of the original research about selenium defeating ebola/enveloped viruses:
http://www.journaljammr.com/index.php/JAMMR/article/view/12548/22960 (http://www.journaljammr.com/index.php/JAMMR/article/view/12548/22960)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 09, 2020, 08:53:59 PM
I want the selenium thing to be true, but I'll start shooting and see whether it ends up full of holes. 8)

I think we sorta have to ignore Richard Sexton's Facebook post, because he blows things up to an absolute certainty:

Quote
The only people that can be infected by the 2019-n Coronavirus have less than 98.7 µg/L of Selenium in plasma or serum.  Those who have enough Selenium are immune to this and all other enveloped viruses. ...

The 98.7 µg/L number seems to come from surveys of human blood selenium levels -- I can't find anything to support the "only people that can be infected" assertion.  Looking at Sexton's references, he also seems confused about the difference between virus immunity (as measured by antibody level) and virus resistance (presumably due to selenium).

If the selenium thing were a proven fact, it would be impossible to NOT see it in the news and official information releases.  Sexton posted that a month ago, and this is the first I've heard of selenium and COVID-19.  So either there's a massive coverup (which somehow doesn't extend to Facebook posts), or it's not widely accepted as proven.

But okay, that tells us nothing about Lipinsky's selenium theory, only that Sexton is not presenting it well.  So what about Lipinsky's paper?

The journal is "British Journal of Medicine & Medical Research", since renamed to "Journal of Advances in Medicine and Medical Research", and published by ScienceDomain International which is headquartered in India.  I'm having trouble finding commentary on the quality of this journal, except for complaints about their "spammy" and "flaky" communications with would-be reviewers.  It's an open access journal, which means it's free to readers but authors have to pay for publication.

Boguslaw Lipinski was at the Joslin Diabetes Center (which is affiliated with Harvard Medical School), but his name can't be found on their website so he may have retired.  He has also published on selenium as a cancer treatment (it seems to be his favorite chemical element).  I can't judge how well respected he is.

Lipinski's selenium article is presented as "Opinion" -- i.e., there's no original research here, just a logical explanation of why he feels it may be effective against some viruses.  He is looking at a (possible) correlation between selenium-deficient regions and Ebola prevalence, and presenting a possible biochemical mechanism whereby selenium could be protective.  Lipinski himself refers to the link as "tentative".  Also, there is no mention of coronaviruses at all -- the focus is on Ebola.

I'm unable to find any scientific response to Lipinski's suggestion, either for Ebola or COVID-19.

So overall, making sure you don't have a selenium deficiency is probably a good idea, but there doesn't seem to be any actual research linking selenium to COVID-19 resistance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on March 09, 2020, 09:38:19 PM
I googled brazil nut virus, wishing it was a cure all, and got a small hit.
But, 99.999 medical is over my head. If blood is running out, I can wrap it and thats about it.  ;D

So.............(never ate brazil nuts I suppose) to order some, to not order some is the question...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on March 09, 2020, 09:52:42 PM
Selenium can be found in certain weeds. It also is a cancer inhibitor I've read. Brazil nuts are my favorite but have gone off the market in recent years due to crop failure and the ones we have had were mostly rotten and had to be tossed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 09, 2020, 11:25:31 PM
I want the selenium thing to be true........

........but there doesn't seem to be any actual research linking selenium to COVID-19 resistance.



We've seen this movie before.....


(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/omGH_2D0VaFSkvoUZspzBcYM3HU=/1400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19684428/judelaw.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: CandyGram4Mongo on March 10, 2020, 06:51:12 AM
+1 @Mr Bill - thanks for your thoroughness. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on March 10, 2020, 07:27:04 AM
 Flu season is winding down, if it's a typical flu that should mean something although with fear mongering they could make you afraid of anything and continue to hype it when the so desire to

 People said that the flu happens in warmer climates or that this one is happening in warm places like Australia and the tropics and presented that as evidence against the flu season viewpoint. I looked it up however and they have a flu season in the tropics as well that may be related to the rainy season or in actuality researchers don't actually seem to understand for sure all the reasons why there is a flu season or the causes of that phenomenon

 I believe strongly in all kinds of supplements, vitamins, minerals, herbs, natural oils etc but there is no cure or predictor of every possible outcome. That is why some people can smoke and live to be 98 years old etc. You can always find many exceptions to apparent rules
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 10, 2020, 10:24:29 AM
One of the takeaways from the list of symptoms seems to be the fact that we don't see the head congestion in the list. This fact may help people to distinguish between the onset of the new Covid 19 virus and a seasonal cold with a cough. Plus, fever seems to be the most common symptom, helping to distinguish it from a common cold.

There is some speculation that the zinc lozenges may also inhibit the virus as it does with a common cold... in any case, can't hurt to try it. I think I saw this on a Martensen vid. (peak prosperity)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 10, 2020, 10:30:38 AM


We've seen this movie before.....


(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/omGH_2D0VaFSkvoUZspzBcYM3HU=/1400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19684428/judelaw.jpg)

What movie is that ?  Of course Forsythia is proported to be anti-viral, so a nice touch as a storyline piece ! But....  even in the real world, herbs for anti-viral aren't a "cure" , usually you are looking for things to be supportive, keep it from being a bad case, help immune system, help certain symptoms, including helping with cytocine storms, etc... and it is generally a mix of many herbs/supplements, not so easy as take this pill and you're cured.  Hard to have enough too, and pricey to have that much as it is not concentrated like lab derived medicines, when we bulk manufacture a component, like asprin instead of carting around a bunch of willow bark, it is cheaper, more convenient and able to be distributed to everyone, and there are downsides, of course. so right now there is quite a run on herbal remedies, sold out all over, of course just like prescriptions those that need them day to day have more than this weeks on hand, but like prescriptions, not a years supply.... So, having Joe Public just glom on to individual words they hear " selenium" or "forsythia"  causes panic buying and it is often just wasteful and disruptive to the usual market as they are often not well versed on its limitations, if they realy need it, or the complexities involved.  Kind of like prescription ads directly to consumers.  Knowledge of the person and their actually health picture ( what are they low on in terms of minerals, might not be low on selenium;  what other co-morbidities do they have ?  Just many things...) and then knowledge of the potential supplements, herbs, chemical  derivatives ( standard prescription medicines), and lifestyle modifications are needed to address health issues. 

There are though good recommendations on supplements and herbal protocols that should help, and those can be followed and should be helpful, I just wouldn't call it a "cure", but these are the only tools we have, and they have been shown to be quite helpful for other viral illnesses.  It could be that other immune system supporting roles is why selenium is a potential helpful supplement,  as I have seen it listed for those reasons, but not specifically an anti-viral.  Most things I take, that absolutely are very helpful for me are not, for example " anti-biotic" in the way we say that.  But, other support form them means my system is fighting off the bacteria.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 10, 2020, 10:57:49 AM
The movie is Contagion.


NY governor calling up Guard to enforce 1 mile containment zone in city of New Rochelle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 10, 2020, 12:37:57 PM
I will second watching it.
I took an online Disaster preparedness seminar and it was a suggestion.
Mainly for the realism that came from an excellent advisory team
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 10, 2020, 01:07:44 PM
The epidemiology was portrayed very well and the Jude Law conspiracy theorist was the icing on the cake.  Kate Winslet based her character on Dr. Messonnier’s experiences.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 10, 2020, 01:43:23 PM
The epidemiology was portrayed very well and the Jude Law conspiracy theorist was the icing on the cake.  Kate Winslet based her character on Dr. Messonnier’s experiences.

I will rent it tonight, while I go thru the seeds....
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 10, 2020, 01:50:43 PM
South Korea showing how it should be done.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without (https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without)
Coronavirus: South Korea’s infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns like China, Italy

"Without harming the principle of a transparent and open society, we recommend a response system that blends voluntary public participation with creative applications of advanced technology,” South Korea’s Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip told journalists.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 10, 2020, 01:57:21 PM
South Korea showing how it should be done.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without (https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without)
Coronavirus: South Korea’s infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns like China, Italy

"Without harming the principle of a transparent and open society, we recommend a response system that blends voluntary public participation with creative applications of advanced technology,” South Korea’s Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip told journalists.

They have masks
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Knecht on March 10, 2020, 03:23:53 PM
14 day guarantine in schools announced today, plus any gatherings over 100 people banned here in CZ
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 10, 2020, 03:35:36 PM
South Korea showing how it should be done.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without (https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without)
Coronavirus: South Korea’s infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns like China, Italy

"Without harming the principle of a transparent and open society, we recommend a response system that blends voluntary public participation with creative applications of advanced technology,” South Korea’s Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip told journalists.




They’re tracking all movement, contacts, vaccinations, health status, and COVID19 test results using citizens’ cellphones loaded with surveillance applications. 

Who’s up for that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 10, 2020, 04:47:46 PM
They have masks

They have actually faced a much more severe shortage and at start had some communication failures regarding them.

https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/south-korea-grapples-with-mask-shortage-amid-covid-19-outbreak/ (https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/south-korea-grapples-with-mask-shortage-amid-covid-19-outbreak/)
South Korea Grapples With Mask Shortage Amid COVID-19 Outbreak


They’re tracking all movement, contacts, vaccinations, health status, and COVID19 test results using citizens’ cellphones loaded with surveillance applications. 

Who’s up for that?

I have no problem whatsoever having people who tested posiive for coronavirus voluntarily make their anonymized and deaccuritized phone location data available so it can be placed on publicly accesible maps.  Who wouldnt want to know if they had been potentially infected?  I think the vast majority of people would opt into that to help others not get infected with what they themselve's caught.

(https://fox4kc.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/2020/02/CORONAVIRUS-APP.jpg?w=900)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 10, 2020, 04:50:12 PM
Coming soon to a region near you.....


Italian ICU doc talks about impact of Covid19 hitting Lombardy:  https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE (https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE)


Only bright spot is that, like in China, kids aren’t getting critically ill and dying from it.  Otherwise it’s pretty gloomy stuff, especially since we’re so far behind where we need to be here in the US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 10, 2020, 05:06:40 PM
I have no problem whatsoever having people who tested posiive for coronavirus voluntarily make their anonymized and deaccuritized phone location data available so it can be placed on publicly accesible maps.  Who wouldnt want to know if they had been potentially infected?  I think the vast majority of people would opt into that to help others not get infected with what they themselve's caught.


Although it does give one a warm fuzzy feeling, thinking of all that altruism blossoming across the land, I don’t see it manifesting any time soon. Certainly not fast enough to head this pandemic off at the pass.  Americans don’t do the right thing until they have tried everything else.

We’re already chronically incapable of getting enough people vaccinated for flu in order to decrease the chance of spreading it to vulnerable people who go on to burden the healthcare system and die from it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 10, 2020, 05:24:32 PM
Coming soon to a region near you.....


Italian ICU doc talks about impact of Covid19 hitting Lombardy:  https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE (https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE)

Only bright spot is that, like in China, kids aren’t getting critically ill and dying from it.  Otherwise it’s pretty gloomy stuff, especially since we’re so far behind where we need to be here in the US.

We have a few other positives too.

We instituted our travel restrictions much earlier and we have advantage of generally lower population densities.  So although we started at same point, our curve is much flatter than other countries. 

url]https://coronavirus.cms.am/?place1=Italy&place2=United+States&type=infected&a=compare[/url]

And, as one of my doctor friend keeps pointing out, we have a definitive advantage in ICU beds available per person (30 per 100K in US vs. 7 per 100K in Europe).  We also have much bigger refridgerators and pantries with about 4x the food on hand.  So much less reliance on daily shopping which is a key way these diseases spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 10, 2020, 06:16:27 PM
They have actually faced a much more severe shortage and at start had some communication failures regarding them.

https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/south-korea-grapples-with-mask-shortage-amid-covid-19-outbreak/ (https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/south-korea-grapples-with-mask-shortage-amid-covid-19-outbreak/)
South Korea Grapples With Mask Shortage Amid COVID-19 Outbreak



I went to the link. Nope, ours is more severe, as we do not have enough to recommend that non-medical people use them.  The linked article is about masks for the general population, they stopped their panic buying by instituting limits on how many can be bought, and every other day purchasing -- this is all for regular people.   Everyone in south Korea is wearing a mask.  And, masks can be re-used by the regular population if they are set aside for a week or so to let any viral contamination die and then rotated back to use, so they can be used at least a few times. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 10, 2020, 07:47:36 PM
I went to the link. Nope, ours is more severe, as we do not have enough to recommend that non-medical people use them.

You are right about regular people in South Korea.  They did not have enough masks for everyone even because they mandated everyone wear one though not necessaty, creating a shortage and fueling panic.  It could literally bring done their president.  He sent millions of masks to China to help with the epidemic there.  People are still lined up in queues to buy one as they literally ran out, including for medical personel.


https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/09/moon-jae-in-china-coronavirus-impeachment-south-korea-president/ (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/09/moon-jae-in-china-coronavirus-impeachment-south-korea-president/)
South Korea’s President Tried to Help China Contain the Coronavirus. Now People Want Him Impeached.

The US is not recommending, let alone mandating, that everyone wear one. And medical personel have not run out.

In the US we still have ~40 million masks of all types in just our strategic national stockpile.  These can be distributed to medical centers should the need arise. This does not include the many millions in the state stockpiles and hospital inventories.

US companies are in heavy production like Prestige Ameritech which alone is putting out 600,000 a day.  They could boost to 1 million a day but are reluctant to do that because they did it before for previous virus scare but demand disappeared over night and they almost went out of business.  Right now we are on track to hit domestic production of over 40 million a month with imports doubling that. 

So while inventories are tight, we are not in crisis like South Korea which emptied their entire inventory. No need to panic.  And again, South Korea has handled the epidemic without everyone having a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 10, 2020, 08:07:56 PM
You are right about regular people in South Korea.  They did not have enough masks for everyone even because they mandated everyone wear one though not necessaty, creating a shortage and fueling panic.  It could literally bring done their president.  He sent millions of masks to China to help with the epidemic there.  People are still lined up in queues to buy one as they literally ran out, including for medical personel.


https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/09/moon-jae-in-china-coronavirus-impeachment-south-korea-president/ (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/09/moon-jae-in-china-coronavirus-impeachment-south-korea-president/)
South Korea’s President Tried to Help China Contain the Coronavirus. Now People Want Him Impeached.

The US is not recommending, let alone mandating, that everyone wear one. And medical personel have not run out.

In the US we still have ~40 million masks of all types in just our strategic national stockpile.  These can be distributed to medical centers should the need arise. This does not include the many millions in the state stockpiles and hospital inventories.

US companies are in heavy production like Prestige Ameritech which alone is putting out 600,000 a day.  They could boost to 1 million a day but are reluctant to do that because they did it before for previous virus scare but demand disappeared over night and they almost went out of business.  Right now we are on track to hit domestic production of over 40 million a month with imports doubling that. 

So while inventories are tight, we are not in crisis like South Korea which emptied their entire inventory. No need to panic.  And again, South Korea has handled the epidemic without everyone having a mask.

 Haven't you read all the accounts of nurses and doctors saying that they are not being given enough masks ?  I just read a nurse saying where she is they are now being given one a day ?

Countries like South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore who have EVERYONE where a mask are having better containment.  We are short masks by definition.  Making 600,000 a day is not enough for everyone, making a million a day would not be enough for everyone.  That is why we are not requiring it.  It is not because it wouldn't help, it is because we do not have enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 10, 2020, 09:33:14 PM
Good info on this pandemic (when to wear mask, for instance) and historical comparisons and perspective.


Doctor Explains How to Prepare for a Pandemic | WIRED:  https://youtu.be/pr1aXn8_F3I (https://youtu.be/pr1aXn8_F3I)

Seema Yasmin is an Emmy Award-winning journalist, poet, medical doctor and author. Yasmin served as an officer in the Epidemic Intelligence Service at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention where she investigated disease outbreaks and was principal investigator on a number of CDC studies. Yasmin trained in journalism at the University of Toronto and in medicine at the University of Cambridge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 10, 2020, 09:41:16 PM
Haven't you read all the accounts of nurses and doctors saying that they are not being given enough masks ?  I just read a nurse saying where she is they are now being given one a day ?

No. I've seen articles where nurses outside of infectious units are now asking for N95s & PPRs instead of surgical masks.  But no reports where they said they didn't have any masks in accordance with guidelines.  I know Washington State requested 200K N95s from the 13 million unit stockpile and that is being fulfilled.  I've also seen the CDC encourage them to use N95s in accordance with their guidelines that they be used only by people with infectious respiratory illness and health care workers who treat or otherwise come in contact with them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 10, 2020, 10:19:47 PM
And, as one of my doctor friend keeps pointing out, we have a definitive advantage in ICU beds available per person (30 per 100K in US vs. 7 per 100K in Europe). 

That's still less than 100k vents in the US, though, and I guarantee the distribution is less than Europe's in our rural zones.  That's not enough capacity to manage the number of ARDS patients this virus could produce in the next 18 months while we're waiting for a vaccine.

With a nationalized healthcare system that's integrated with their public health system, Italy (and every other highly developed nation, like S. Korea) has much more ability to direct available ventilators to the hospitals most in need.  We're not going to see that here, short of martial law at the state or federal level.  Our hospitals just don't cooperate well, in the best of times, because they're on the edge of insolvency all the time and that creates a dog eat dog mentality.  There's not much in the way of carrots and sticks to motivate hospitals to cooperate for the common good.

It's not that we, as a society are incapable of moving in the right direction, but we're not going to make the necessary leaps until we're well into the crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 10, 2020, 11:46:32 PM
That's still less than 100k vents in the US, though, and I guarantee the distribution is less than Europe's in our rural zones.  That's not enough capacity to manage the number of ARDS patients this virus could produce in the next 18 months while we're waiting for a vaccine.

How many cases do you think we will have?  Extrapolating, it looks like China will be under 200k out of population of 1.5 Billion with about 20% of those needing hospitalization.   If same ratios in US that comes to less than 10,000 in hospitals in US.  This is almost round off error considering the 200k hospitalizations we see from flu.

I've seen the models projecting 150 million infected in US by July.  But same assumptions would say China would be well over a million by now.  We simply dont see that.  In fact WHO hasnt even declared a pandemic yet because cases are too few.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 11, 2020, 09:14:18 AM
China locked down up to half their citizens under the most comprehensive and draconian quarantine measures ever.  And it looks like it just may have worked for them.

We can’t pull that off here so any expectation that China’s case numbers represent an upper limit for the US is risky.

Also the need for extra ventilators and ICU beds is not going to be evenly distributed, there will be clusters that rapidly explode beyond that region’s medical capacity to manage severe cases.  We saw that in Wuhan where military medical troops were marched in to staff enormous hospitals built practically over night.

And there are still going to be people who will continue to have a non-COVID medical need for a ventilator, so our total ICU capacity doesn’t represent the available capacity for managing a rapid increase in need due to a novel contagious disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 11, 2020, 09:27:16 AM
So what number are you thinking?

I am highly skeptical.  US has nowhere near population density of China Coastal regions.  Hong Kong with more Western style medicine and approach is sitting at ~120 cases.  We are at ~1,000 in US despite being two months into this.

Just not seeing the 4 Billion worldwide, 150 million in US infection scenario media is pumping.  Something more like 400k max worldwide and maybe as low as 200K. 

 (https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106369525-1583802252667covid-global.png?v=1583802171?w=720&h=405)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 11, 2020, 09:53:05 AM
https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/china-shuts-all-16-temporary-coronavirus-hospitals-in-wuhan/amp/ (https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/china-shuts-all-16-temporary-coronavirus-hospitals-in-wuhan/amp/)
China shuts all 16 temporary coronavirus hospitals in Wuhan

In a dramatic sign that the coronavirus crisis is improving in China, the last two of 16 temporary hospitals in the epicenter city of Wuhan have been shut down, according to a report.

The final group of 49 patients walked out of the Wuchang temporary hospital in the capital of Hubei province on Tuesday afternoon to cheers, according to the Xinhua news agency.

The 784-bed facility — which was converted from Wuchang Hongshan Stadium — opened Feb. 5 and received a total of 1,124 patients, according to the news outlet, which said 833 were discharged and 291 were transferred to other hospitals.

Meanwhile, a makeshift hospital in Wuhan’s Jiangxia District also was shuttered Thursday after 26 days of operation, Xinhua reported. It had received a total of 564 patients, 392 of whom were discharged after recovering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 11, 2020, 10:22:57 AM
These numbers from Michael Osterholm’s recent Joe Rogan appearance are good estimates of what we’re facing.


https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts (https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 11, 2020, 10:42:39 AM
WHO finally decided to declare COVID19 a pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 11, 2020, 10:43:52 AM
all! I have the impression that the total of the population that will get infected is very high
(close to 60% of).
anyone has any links to studies?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 11, 2020, 11:59:10 AM
These numbers from Michael Osterholm’s recent Joe Rogan appearance are good estimates of what we’re facing.

https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts (https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts)

Yes.  But didnt he basically say the same thing about SARS, MERS,, Zika, and the seasonal flu?  Every time there is an outbreak he is on TV predicting millions dead and promoting his books:

(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51C80XYBMWL._SY346_.jpg)
[(https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/91JHoV9zTmL._AC_UY327_FMwebp_QL65_.jpg)

And last time he was in the news it was as citation for shutting down predictive virus research.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/opinion--disease-prediction-by-bat-virus-surveys-is-a-waste-65348 (https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/opinion--disease-prediction-by-bat-virus-surveys-is-a-waste-65348)
Disease Prediction by Bat Virus Surveys Is a Waste
Costly virus hunts are ineffective in protecting public health and have unfairly harmed the historically excellent safety record of bats as beneficial neighbors.


Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, also suggests that we should invest more in halting diseases already known to be deadly to humans instead of trying to predict which ones will be next to cross over.

So we should probably take his estimates as the one in a million worse case scenario.

all! I have the impression that the total of the population that will get infected is very high
(close to 60% of).
anyone has any links to studies?

I've not been able to locate anything credible so far.  Most early predictions were for millions of cases by this time which clearly hasnt happened.  The error rate is so wide around the basic reproduction number that it is hard to predict- 1.4 to 6.5.  The big number projections are assuming a 4+.  WHO puts the number at about 2 so not expecting anything like that.  Spanish flu is estimated at 2.8 and infected about 25% of global population during a time of world war.  So estimates calling for 50%+ of today's population seem to be outside of probability.

(https://cf.eip.telegraph.co.uk/responsive-image/content/a820c25134b261f65dc95aa731c21c58224e82a1/1583256474687.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 11, 2020, 12:27:58 PM
Speak of the devil.  That clears it up.  Only a factor of 1,000 difference between low and high.  But if you take even the worst case scenario, it is consistent with about 6.5% of population being infected with 2% of those die.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-will-get-and-die-of-coronavirus-epidemiologists-model-answers-11583538443 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-will-get-and-die-of-coronavirus-epidemiologists-model-answers-11583538443)
How Many People Will Get Sick From the Coronavirus? Epidemiologists Model Answers
Scientists quietly see a best-case scenario of tens of thousands of deaths; 10 million over two years is the worst case
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: CandyGram4Mongo on March 11, 2020, 12:32:43 PM
Jack's post today is exceptionally good and well worth a read:
http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/what-we-mean-when-we-say-covid-2019-is-like-the-flu (http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/what-we-mean-when-we-say-covid-2019-is-like-the-flu)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 11, 2020, 01:08:23 PM
Jack's post today is exceptionally good and well worth a read:
http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/what-we-mean-when-we-say-covid-2019-is-like-the-flu (http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/what-we-mean-when-we-say-covid-2019-is-like-the-flu)

Yeah, that was not bad.  There's room to disagree about some details, but I think Jack's overall message is a good one.

Gotta find that balance point between "take it seriously and wash yer damn hands" vs "don't be driven to panic by those who profit from getting you to panic".
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 11, 2020, 02:01:53 PM
Another good article today.  It aligns with several points Jack made.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths-rates.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths-rates.html)
The Coronavirus, by the Numbers
A mathematician who studies the spread of disease explains some of the figures that keep popping up in coronavirus news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 11, 2020, 02:34:50 PM
Today Italy added 2313 cases and 196 deaths to their totals.  They have around 10,000 active cases, 10% of which are critical.

Italy now has 206 cases per million inhabitants, the highest in any country.  China is 56.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 11, 2020, 03:08:28 PM
This why i was asking.
I am getting similar numbers from many sources.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that up to 70% of the country's population - some 58 million people - could contract the coronavirus.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-51835856
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 11, 2020, 03:49:12 PM
Italy is locking down all commercial activity, allowing only supermarkets and pharmacies to remain open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 11, 2020, 04:21:08 PM
for what is worth:


Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population

Quote
Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, said the overriding question was to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg. Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an “attack rate” of 60-80%.


https://9now.nine.com.au/60-minutes/sixty-percent-of-the-worlds-population-could-become-infected-with-coronavirus-says-leading-expert/dc69d987-4d76-45a4-ab4c-9fbb92beb605
Quote
Professor Gabriel Leung, who led the global fight against SARs from Hong Kong in 2002, says it is unknown now how big the 'coronavirus iceberg' may be.
"Eventually you will see 40, 50, 60 per cent of the population get infected.


Harvard Epidemiologist “I Don’t Think the Virus Can Be Stopped Anymore”
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/i-don-t-think-the-virus-can-be-stopped-anymore-a-03d404e6-762b-42fb-ac48-e4a8f03a2f2b

Quote
It's of course a projection and, like any projection, it could be wrong. But if you have a reproductive number of an infectious disease of around two, which seems to be the estimates that we're getting right now (Eds: meaning that, on average, each infected person transmits the disease to two other people), then at a minimum, half the adult population needs to become infected before the spread can stop permanently. This is not an ungrounded estimation, but simply the basic math of epidemics.

Coronavirus Could Infect Two-Thirds of Globe, Research Shows
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/coronavirus-could-infect-two-thirds-of-globe-researcher-says

Quote
Two-thirds of the world’s population could catch it.

So says Ira Longini, an adviser to the World Health Organization who tracked studies of the virus’s transmissibility in China.



Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 11, 2020, 04:58:51 PM
No. I've seen articles where nurses outside of infectious units are now asking for N95s & PPRs instead of surgical masks.  But no reports where they said they didn't have any masks in accordance with guidelines.  I know Washington State requested 200K N95s from the 13 million unit stockpile and that is being fulfilled.  I've also seen the CDC encourage them to use N95s in accordance with their guidelines that they be used only by people with infectious respiratory illness and health care workers who treat or otherwise come in contact with them.

Found one of the arttcles I read , but there were others.   
"guidelines" is a key term !  So, they are keeping within guidelines if the relax the guidelines in some cases, or in others maybe dont update a guideline that intake is now riskier to HCW.  So not ahving appropriate guidelines can make that word meaningless

Quote
health authorities are hunting for medical supplies and have called on employees to ration.

“Limit mask use to on the patient only,” read a Wednesday email from a Valley Medical Center (VMC) staffer to nurses, referring to surgical masks. “Staff will no longer wear masks, unless providing a care procedure requiring removal of the patient’s mask.”

According to the email: “Masks are in critical supply” and that “due to disaster conditions VMC will be implementing alternate standards of care to conserve masks for critical and surgical use.”

About an hour after the message went out, staff objected and it was retracted, according to Liz Nolan, a VMC spokeswoman, and the hospital found other ways to conserve and nurses were allotted one mask per shift.

Quote
Several Seattle-area medical centers have lowered the protocol for levels of precaution health workers take with personal protective gear when treating confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patients.

“This is a global issue,” said Dr. Christopher Baliga, chief of infectious disease at Virginia Mason Medical Center, of the supply problem.

The supply shortages in Seattle highlight what health experts identify as COVID-19’s threat: That regional surges of medical needs stress a nationwide system that experts say operates close to capacity even when there’s not a crisis.

This is not the only incident, but I am not going to search them out.... dont know why you think the nurses would be lying ?  And, why would we expect them to not be able to take precautions to not get sick ?

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/seattle-health-care-providers-scramble-to-ration-medical-supplies-as-coronavirus-cases-climb/
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on March 11, 2020, 06:04:38 PM
Italy is locking down all commercial activity, allowing only supermarkets and pharmacies to remain open.
Italy is right down serious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 11, 2020, 07:05:06 PM
And, this one, wasnt looking, but ran across it so....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/10/face-mask-shortage-prompts-cdc-loosen-coronavirus-guidance/

Quote
"A shortage of specialized masks has prompted federal health officials to loosen their recommendations on the face protection that front line health-care workers should use to prevent infection from the highly contagious disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

"Instead of recommending that health-care workers use specialized masks known as N95 respirators, which filter out about 95 percent of airborne particles, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention posted new guidelines Tuesday that said 'the supply chain of respirators cannot meet demand' and that looser fitting surgical face masks 'are an acceptable alternative'."

SO, again we see new guideline that loosen standards from what was in place before due to shortage of masks
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 11, 2020, 07:17:48 PM
Italy is right down serious.

As they should.

As we should.



Non-essential travel to Europe, with the exception of the UK, will be banned as of Friday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 11, 2020, 07:47:56 PM
NBA cancels remainder of season as player tests positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on March 11, 2020, 08:13:32 PM
The numbers in Italy sound bad if they are accurate which concerns me that things could be worse when I was hoping for the better. I was hoping people like spirko  would be right saying it was going to be worse in China because of their smoking over there and poor air quality and hoping flu season was winding down.

I am hoping the numbers in Italy are not accurate or exaggerated but I don’t know

I guess I am reading that Italy has a higher number of older people. If most of the deaths are older people then that does tell you something and even older people supposedly have a good chance of survival. My mother is 90 and from watching the tv she thought that if she got it she would die but it’s not clear that every elderly person dies that gets the virus, that seems very inaccurate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 11, 2020, 08:16:39 PM

The numbers in Italy sound bad if they are accurate which concerns me that things could be worse when I was hoping for the better. I was hoping people like spirko  would be right saying it was going to be worse in China because of their smoking over there and poor air quality and hoping flu season was winding down.

Italians smoke a lot.  When I was there, granted 20 years ago, even small children smoked with their parents.  Also, 1 in 4 Italians are over the age of 60.  When I was there I saw ONE (obviously) pregnant woman, and the young people did not marry until their mid-late 30s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 11, 2020, 08:49:36 PM
Yes.  But didnt he basically say the same thing about SARS, MERS,, Zika, and the seasonal flu?  Every time there is an outbreak he is on TV predicting millions dead and promoting his books:

........

So we should probably take his estimates as the one in a million worse case scenario.


Normally, I would discount Osterholm, too. 

But these aren't normal times, and this is turning out to be a deceptively effective way of weeding out the old, the unwell, the obese, and those with conditions that lead to heart disease.


Cedar fears she's smack in the middle of (as in recognizes their faces) recently announced cases in her county.

This infection has legs and tentacles, and none of us is immune.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 11, 2020, 11:59:39 PM
Oregonian:  Coronavirus spreads to veterans’ nursing home in Oregon; 2 patients infected (https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/coronavirus-spreads-to-oregons-first-assisted-living-facility.html)

Quote
Two residents at a veterans’ nursing home in Lebanon in Linn County have now tested positive for coronavirus, the Oregon Health Authority announced Wednesday night, signifying a dramatic and troubling turn as the deadly pandemic runs rampant across America.

The outbreak at the Edward C. Allworth Oregon Veterans’ Home marks the first at a senior residential center in Oregon. Both infected patients are men who are at least 80 years old. It’s unclear how they became infected and the cases have been labeled as “community spread.”

Quote
“We understand the uncertainty this announcement may bring," said Kelly Fitzpatrick, director of the Oregon Department of Veterans’ Affairs. "But please rest assured the safety of our veterans and our staff is our highest priority.”

The surprise announcement, made after 7 p.m., came nearly seven hours after state officials announced four new cases in Deschutes, Polk, Marion and Umatilla counties.


Only medical facilities I've been in that would be worse than a nursing home for spreading this disease is a vet home.

Polk, Marion, and Linn counties are picture postcard examples of predominantly rural life in Oregon's Willamette valley.  If it is happening there, especially this early in the pandemic, it will happen everywhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 12, 2020, 12:57:52 AM
I guess I am reading that Italy has a higher number of older people. If most of the deaths are older people then that does tell you something and even older people supposedly have a good chance of survival. My mother is 90 and from watching the tv she thought that if she got it she would die but it’s not clear that every elderly person dies that gets the virus, that seems very inaccurate.

living with an elder, I can tell you that you just don't understand Mediterranean elders. They are as stubborn as they can be, and refuse to change anything in their daily routine.
BTW, it seems Italy has a Massive death rate, 6.3%
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzXQ6Bu9JVI
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 12, 2020, 01:48:19 AM
Italy closes all shops other than supermarkets and pharmacies

https://www.ft.com/content/b25470c0-63e6-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

over here, as of today all schools are closed and public gatherings are asked to be postoponed (as they do).
thing is thta closing schools leave working parents in a cuagmire. Most will have the elders babysit the kids, which is a No-No in this case...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on March 12, 2020, 01:54:15 AM
living with an elder, I can tell you that you just don't understand Mediterranean elders. They are as stubborn as they can be, and refuse to change anything in their daily routine.
BTW, it seems Italy has a Massive death rate, 6.3%
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzXQ6Bu9JVI

I had also heard however that some regard the Mediterranean diet as being the most healthy in the world as it consists of many vegetables and so on though I suppose not everyone over there adheres to such
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 12, 2020, 07:26:03 AM
China is easing restrictions.  And no, they didn't experience the "expert" predicted 750 million infected and 1.5 million dead.  And this was without taking any action for the first month as they tried to cover it up

https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-says-new-coronavirus-cases-falling-it-is-past-peak-of-disease-report.amp (https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-says-new-coronavirus-cases-falling-it-is-past-peak-of-disease-report.amp)
China says coronavirus cases falling, it is past peak of disease: report

Chinese authorities are allowing citizens to reopen their business and are easing containment measures as the country's health commission says the nation has made it past the worst of the coronavirus threat within its borders, according to reports.

According to Reuters, new coronavirus cases in Hubei province, which contains Wuhan, the epicenter of the disease that Wednesday was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization, totaled just eight on Thursday -- the lowest number recorded so far.

"Broadly speaking, the peak of the epidemic has passed for China," National Health Commission Spokesman Mi Feng said, according to Reuters. "The increase of new cases is falling."
...
According to Reuters the total number of coronavirus cases recorded in China is just under 81,000, and almost 63,000 of those have recovered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 12, 2020, 09:00:46 AM
From South Korea, it looks like we may have a legit treatment:  Chloroquine diphosphate salt + zinc treatment combo to block COVID-19 viral enzyme at 500 mg per day of chloroquine + zinc for 10 days.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0)
Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 12, 2020, 09:22:15 AM
WaPo:  ‘Italy has abandoned us’: People are being trapped at home with their loved ones’ bodies amid coronavirus lockdown  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/12/coronavirus-bodies-italy-quarantine/)

Quote
When his sister died after contracting the novel coronavirus, Luca Franzese thought that things couldn’t get much worse.

Then, for more than 36 hours, the Italian actor and mixed martial arts trainer was trapped at home with Teresa Franzese’s decaying body, unable to find a funeral home that would bury her.

“I have my sister in bed, dead, I don’t know what to do,” Franzese said in a Facebook video over the weekend, pleading for help. “I cannot give her the honor she deserves because the institutions have abandoned me. I contacted everyone, but nobody was able to give me an answer.”

Quote
“It was the first case in Italy in which a person with the virus dies at home, so there was some confusion on what to do,” Francesco Emilio Borrelli, a local councilor who also serves as a member of Campania’s Regional Health Commission, told Al Jazeera.

On Sunday evening, Franzese posted an emotional appeal to his followers on Facebook, urging them to take the virus seriously as he stood in the same room where his sister lay dead in the background.

“We are ruined,” he said. “Italy has abandoned us."


The fog of war.


We're 10-14 days behind Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on March 12, 2020, 09:34:28 AM
In other words, you are saying we haven't been hit yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 12, 2020, 09:36:48 AM
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

I know, medium.. But, lots of great charts and information on the importance of social distancing, and projected case/death rates, etc... Since it is so chart heavy, you need to look at it to see why these conclusions happen. I think it is worthwhile to click over to see explainations and charts

Quote
This is what you can conclude:

    Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
    Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.


Quote
    “After a few days, we have to choose. […] Not everyone can be intubated. We decide based on age and state of health.” —Christian Salaroli, Italian MD.

All of this is what drives a system to have a fatality rate of ~4% instead of ~0.5%. If you want your city or your country to be part of the 4%, don’t do anything today.

Quote
In this theoretical model that resembles loosely Hubei, waiting one more day creates 40% more cases! So, maybe, if the Hubei authorities had declared the lockdown on 1/22 instead of 1/23, they might have reduced the number of cases by a staggering 20k.

And remember, these are just cases. Mortality would be much higher, because not only would there be directly 40% more deaths. There would also be a much higher collapse of the healthcare system, leading to a mortality rate up to 10x higher as we saw before. So a one-day difference in social distancing measures can end exploding the number of deaths in your community by multiplying more cases and higher fatality rate.

This is an exponential threat. Every day counts. When you’re delaying by a single day a decision, you’re not contributing to a few cases maybe. There are probably hundreds or thousands of cases in your community already. Every day that there isn’t social distancing, these cases grow exponentially.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 12, 2020, 09:47:32 AM
In other words, you are saying we haven't been hit yet.

Yet. 

But what happens in Italy will be echoed across the Western world and we've had clusters of disease in multiple parts of the county for a week now. 

After a nearly 3 month head start on this novel virus we still don't have adequate testing available to identify who actually has the disease, which is the linchpin of managing an epidemic.  It's criminal malpractice at the national level.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 12, 2020, 10:56:41 AM
They are moving quickly.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Technology/wireStory/study-begins-us-test-coronavirus-treatment-69208901 (https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Technology/wireStory/study-begins-us-test-coronavirus-treatment-69208901)
Study begins in US to test possible coronavirus treatment
The first clinical trial in the U.S. of a possible coronavirus treatment is underway in Nebraska and is eventually expected to include 400 patients at 50 locations around the world


Half of the patients in the international study will receive the antiviral medicine remdesivir while the other half will receive a placebo. Several other studies, including one looking at the same drug, are already underway internationally.
...
At least two patient studies are already underway in China, including the other study involving remdesivir, which is made by Gilead Sciences, and another that tests a combination HIV drug containing lopinavir and ritonavir.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 12, 2020, 11:24:20 AM
Double virus threat: Beware of coronavirus information sites that spread computer viruses!  There has been at least one that looks exactly like the Johns Hopkins map/graph site, but tries to install malware on your computer:

SC Media, 3/11/20: Malicious coronavirus map hides AZORult info-stealing malware (https://www.scmagazine.com/home/security-news/malicious-coronavirus-map-hides-azorult-info-stealing-malware/)

This one may have been shut down.  But expect other sites that try to do something similar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 12, 2020, 11:31:36 AM
From South Korea, it looks like we may have a legit treatment:  Chloroquine diphosphate salt + zinc treatment combo to block COVID-19 viral enzyme at 500 mg per day of chloroquine + zinc for 10 days.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0)
Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro

This is really good news.  Is there a different link for the Korean chloroquine + zinc study?  This link is 5-week-old research from Wuhan and Beijing, and doesn't mention zinc (but is good news all by itself).
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 12, 2020, 12:23:24 PM
This is really good news.  Is there a different link for the Korean chloroquine + zinc study?  This link is 5-week-old research from Wuhan and Beijing, and doesn't mention zinc (but is good news all by itself).

Yes, those are the two main items under trials.

I dont think the chloroquine + zinc trials study are written up yet as South Korea was just first area of trials.  But this video (starting at 1:40) explains why they pursued the trials and cites the papers:

https://youtu.be/U7F1cnWup9M (https://youtu.be/U7F1cnWup9M)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 12, 2020, 12:32:12 PM
Talk about unforseen consequences!

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/hordes-starving-monkeys-seen-storming-21676062.amp (https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/hordes-starving-monkeys-seen-storming-21676062.amp)
Hordes of starving monkeys seen storming empty streets in Thailand as tourists stay away
The normally well-fed primates had no food after coronavirus fears left the normally busy streets in Thailand completely empty of tourists
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 12, 2020, 12:47:55 PM
Just looking at some posts on other forums, I predict that in a few days we'll see massive promotion of "natural" quinine plus zinc as a COVID-19 cure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Giraffe on March 12, 2020, 04:48:15 PM
Well seems like there already is another cure suggested. Ozone therapy. Don't know much about it but if it works then that's great if there's hospitals or medical professionals who have the tools and skills to use it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYIBFnGWeEM
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 12, 2020, 06:20:11 PM
Third treatment option asking for fast tracking.

https://13wham.com/news/local/roc-biotech-company-says-lab-tests-of-former-cancer-drug-confirm-it-stops-covid-19 (https://13wham.com/news/local/roc-biotech-company-says-lab-tests-of-former-cancer-drug-confirm-it-stops-covid-19)
ROC biotech company says lab tests of former cancer drug confirm it stops COVID-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 12, 2020, 09:01:38 PM
NYT:  Italy’s Health Care System Groans Under Coronavirus — a Warning to the World (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/world/europe/12italy-coronavirus-health-care.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
The mayor of one town complained that doctors were forced to decide not to treat the very old, leaving them to die. In another town, patients with coronavirus-caused pneumonia were being sent home. Elsewhere, a nurse collapsed with her mask on, her photograph becoming a symbol of overwhelmed medical staff.

In less than three weeks, the coronavirus has overloaded the heath care system all over northern Italy. It has turned the hard hit Lombardy region into a grim glimpse of what awaits countries if they cannot slow the spread of the virus and ‘‘flatten the curve’’ of new cases — allowing the sick to be treated without swamping the capacity of hospitals.

If not, even hospitals in developed countries with the world’s best health care risk becoming triage wards, forcing ordinary doctors and nurses to make extraordinary decisions about who may live and who may die. Wealthy northern Italy is facing a version of that nightmare already.

Quote
Italy’s experience has now underscored the need to act decisively — quickly and early — well before case numbers even appear to reach crisis levels. By that point, it may already be too late to prevent a spike in cases that stretches systems beyond their limits.

With Italy having appeared to pass that threshold, its doctors are finding themselves in an extraordinary position largely unseen by developed European nations with public health care systems since the Second World War.

Quote
A doctor in a hospital in Bergamo this week posted on social media a graphic account of the stress on the health system by the overwhelming number of patients.

“The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night,” the doctor, Daniele Macchini wrote, calling the situation an “epidemiological disaster” that has “overwhelmed” the doctors.

Fabiano Di Marco, head of pulmonology at the Papa Giovanni XXIII hospital in Bergamo, where he has taken to sleeping in his office, said Thursday that doctors literally “draw a line on the ground to divide the clean part of the hospital from the dirty one,” where anything they touch is considered contagious.

Quote
Many experts have noted that if the wealthy and sophisticated northern Italian health care system cannot bear the brunt of the outbreak, it is highly unlikely that the poorer south would be able to cope.

If the virus spread south at the same rate, Dr. Palermo said, “the system won’t hold up, and we won’t be able to assure care.”

Quote
“The Italian disease is becoming a European disease and Trump, with his decision, is trying to avoid that this becomes an American disease,” said Romano Prodi, a former Italian prime minister and president of the European Union commission.

“In any case I think that coronavirus is already also an American problem,” he said, adding that, because of the difference in the health care system, “it may be more serious than the European one.”


It may be more serious, indeed.  We're certainly not off to a great start.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 12, 2020, 10:26:40 PM
WSJ:  U.S. Virus Testing System Is Failing, Fauci Tells Congress  (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-virus-testing-system-is-failing-fauci-tells-congress-11584042312?mod=article_inline)

Quote
“The system is not really geared to what we need right now,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testified Thursday at a congressional hearing. “That is a failing. It is a failing. Let’s admit it.”

The Trump administration has come under fire for delays in testing that some public-health experts say is hampering efforts to identify cases and contain the outbreak.

Quote
As a consequence, said Dr. Fauci, the U.S. doesn’t have a handle on exactly how extensive the outbreak of coronavirus is in the U.S. He said the government plans to conduct surveillance of patients who come into emergency rooms in a range of cities, but that “the surveillance is not operational at all now.”

The Trump administration has said that sufficient test kits are available, but doctors, health-care administrators and state officials say it has been a patchwork fashion that hasn’t met demand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 12, 2020, 11:17:15 PM
This is why we need to drastically reduce government involvement in health care.  Luckily Pence is knocking down a lot of these artificial bariers.

https://reason.com/2020/03/11/how-government-red-tape-stymied-testing-and-made-the-coronavirus-epidemic-worse/ (https://reason.com/2020/03/11/how-government-red-tape-stymied-testing-and-made-the-coronavirus-epidemic-worse/)
How Government Red Tape Stymied Testing and Made the Coronavirus Epidemic Worse
FDA and CDC bureaucrats stopped private and academic diagnostic tests from being deployed.


The United States is home to the most innovative biotech companies and university research laboratories in the world. That fact should have given our country a huge advantage with respect to detecting and monitoring emerging cases of COVID-19 caused by the new coronavirus outbreak.

Instead, as The New York Times reports in a terrific new article, officials at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stymied private and academic development of diagnostic tests that might have provided an early warning and a head start on controlling the epidemic that is now spreading across the country.

As the Times reports, Seattle infectious disease expert Dr. Helen Chu had, by January, collected a huge number of nasal swabs from local residents who were experiencing symptoms as part of a research project on flu. She proposed, to federal and state officials, testing those samples for coronavirus infections. As the Times reports, the CDC told Chu and her team that they could not test the samples unless their laboratory test was approved by the FDA. The FDA refused to approve Chu's test on the grounds that her lab, according to the Times, "was not certified as a clinical laboratory under regulations established by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, a process that could take months."
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 13, 2020, 07:12:44 AM
So the results of Coronavirus testing in US is being compiled.  Results of percent infected is way below what anyone expected.  Only 12% are proving positive.  And this is among the original stricter CDC protocol of those with symptoms exposed to a known case.  This is consistent with South Korean containment experience.  There is no indication of wider infections like some in media are promoting.   Remember, we started at same point in time as Itally yet have nowhere near that experience.  The infection curve is much, much more bent.in US.  Probably a result of travel bans, lower population densities, and much greater ICU capabilities.

Data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml# (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#)

Also, it looks like longer exposures are needed to spread variant in US.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/12/health/person-to-person-coronavirus-illinois-study/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/12/health/person-to-person-coronavirus-illinois-study/index.html)
'Prolonged, unprotected contact' led to first known person-to-person coronavirus transmission in US, study says

A woman who traveled from China to Illinois in mid-January likely transmitted the novel coronavirus to her husband through "prolonged, unprotected contact," according to research released Thursday.

None of more than 300 people who came into contact with the two patients after they showed symptoms, however, developed symptoms of their own.

The findings, published in the medical journal The Lancet, detail the first known transmission of novel coronavirus in the United States, and suggest that the virus may transmit most easily through extended contact with infected people, not brief or casual exposures.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 13, 2020, 09:25:07 AM
WSJ:  U.S. Virus Testing System Is Failing, Fauci Tells Congress  (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-virus-testing-system-is-failing-fauci-tells-congress-11584042312?mod=article_inline)

From what I have read the failure is not having a chemical component ( a reagent, if I have the correct term)  and that there is this ONE company that makes it, and I bet they generally make it overseas !  ( they are upping production right now, including domestically)

So, the failure to me isnt something that failed in oversight or administration, just now in 2020, last month.  The failure is systemic and a long time coming as the failure is that all ( ok, most of) the worlds manufacturing is centralized for efficiency, which means it is no longer robust.  It is not surprising to me that countries that manufacture more, like south korea, can more quickly have what they need, compared to the USA, Canada and Europe.  And, as we have talked of here is that it is not only testing chemicals, we are also dependent for prescription meds, saline bags, and N95 masks !  We have made oursselves very susceptible to supply chain disruptions.

The current failure in oversight and administration is the lack of transperancy, at all levels.  Government, media reporting, etc... How hard would it be to just tell us, hey, we have test kits, but it turns out that we cant get all the chemicals due to a world wide shortage.  Then, to play politics, as we always do, go ahead and say, we made the decision in 199x to only have one supplier, or when we made the list in 199x of critical medical supplies, x,y and z where not thought of to be part of this, and blame your party of choice.  But, the complete lack of transperancy is not what we need.  Tell us what is going on and why.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 13, 2020, 10:54:31 AM
Trump is expected to announce National Emergency this afternoon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on March 13, 2020, 11:09:51 AM
Trump is expected to announce National Emergency this afternoon.

 I heard of potential domestic travel bans. A friend of mine is supposed to fly to Florida on Monday to spend a week there. Is it possible she could get stranded there or if the flight is canceled I wonder if she could get a refund ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 13, 2020, 11:11:01 AM
I heard of potential domestic travel bans. A friend of mine is supposed to fly to Florida on Monday to spend a week there. Is it possible she could get stranded there or if the flight is canceled I wonder if she could get a refund ?

This is not the time to be a stranger in a strange land.  Stay home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 13, 2020, 11:43:30 AM
So CDC worst case estimates were just leaked.  These assume what would have happened if no mitigating strategies were implemented.  They are already dramatically less than what we have been seeing in media.

R0_Rate: 2 to 3 (vs 2 to 6.5)
Hospitalization Rate = 3% to 12%  (vs 20% to 25%)
Fatality Rate =0.25% to 1% of those experiencing symptoms (vs 2 to 4% of all infected)

So the good news is that as long as we continue to bend the infection curve like we have, it should be much less impactful than has been dramatized.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html)
Projections based on C.D.C. scenarios show a potentially vast toll.
But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 13, 2020, 11:56:46 AM
Without adequate testing capacity we have no idea where we are right now. That’s a huge unknown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 13, 2020, 12:02:14 PM
Without adequate testing capacity we have no idea where we are right now. That’s a huge unknown.

Well, we know that of the cases tested to date less then 12% of them came back positive.  Again, well below expectations. So precautions taken seem to be working and we just boosted them up by orders of magnitude.  In South Korea they have done 240,000 tests with less than 8,000 confirmed cases. And they started much later on mitigation.  So our experience will probably be very similar as testing ramps up further.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 13, 2020, 12:25:28 PM
Now, this is a great idea,  get creative to keep your business and serve the customers that still want and need some prepared food

Quote
No restaurant community has felt the crisis more acutely so far than Seattle’s. Washington state has the country’s highest number of reported coronavirus cases and deaths, concentrated largely in the Seattle area.

“I feel like we’ve been one headline away from closing down,” Canlis said.

To fight back, he said the restaurant would reinvent itself starting Monday. Instead of multicourse dinners, Canlis will serve bagels from an outdoor stand at breakfast and hamburgers for lunch. The hamburgers will be available for drive-through pickup. In the evening, the restaurant will offer home delivery of prepared meals.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/dining/restaurants-coronavirus.html?searchResultPosition=1
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: bigbear on March 13, 2020, 12:48:47 PM
Now, this is a great idea,  get creative to keep your business and serve the customers that still want and need some prepared food

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/dining/restaurants-coronavirus.html?searchResultPosition=1

A nearby hospital is doing the same.
https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-in-maryland-upper-chesapeake-health-offers-drive-thru-testing/
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 13, 2020, 02:19:59 PM
Local animal feed and garden supply store will now due curbside delivery out to your car.  Easiest if call ahead, pay with cc by phone ( or when you get there, but take up less time on curb space if do ahead), then drive over. 

These things do not need to be solved on the national or statewide level.  No-one wants vulnerable populations exposed.  If you havent heard of this, call a store and likely they will help you out. 

Also, look for opportunities to help if you can, for example, here locally senior produce distributions is done by seniors.  Well, they should not be doing this right now !  Younger people will need to help with the produce sorting and bagging and deliveries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 13, 2020, 03:19:19 PM
I heard of potential domestic travel bans. A friend of mine is supposed to fly to Florida on Monday to spend a week there. Is it possible she could get stranded there or if the flight is canceled I wonder if she could get a refund ?

Our trip (tomorrow) to the Caribbean turned into a staycation this week. I already have a cold and God only knows what tomorrow holds let alone 2 weeks out. Many members of the group we travel with had a hard time with this one. Lots of tears but there will be next year. Neighbors cancelled a California trip too. Maybe we'll grill out together.

It just doesn't feel good being in an airport during a largely unknown global pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on March 13, 2020, 03:40:11 PM
This is not the time to be a stranger in a strange land.  Stay home.
Check with the airline. American is offering free cancellations for purchases in March 5-?. We're in the same boat, er, plane. I do not want to do it now, never did really as I don't care for Florida congestion and climate. Hopefully we get reimbursed but either way I'm staying home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 13, 2020, 04:38:12 PM
Update on Greece.
as of today, and for the next 2 weeks, all malls, coffee shops, bars and restaurants are closed, unless they offer takeaway.
Only small retails stores, supermarkets and pharmacies are to be open.
I took a stroll on the night side of town and everything was DEAD. Got me a beer and went to the park, watching the view for a while.
Forced my self to watch TV, and found the show that craved for blood the most. They kept saying that this would be a 2 month -at the least- situation. pretty stupid either way you see it, cos the quarantine will backfire if it gets that strict.

On the number side of things we are at 190 cases and 1-2 dead out of 10mil.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 13, 2020, 10:01:37 PM
Nice video giving them recognition.  This will be one for them to tell the grandkids about.

https://twitter.com/redfishstream/status/1238457755415064576?s=19 (https://twitter.com/redfishstream/status/1238457755415064576?s=19)
Chinese medical workers who have been fighting the #coronavirus day and night in Wuhan celebrated the closing of the last temporary hospital in Wuhan.

The reported #covid19 cases went from a surge in February of 15,000 in one day to only 15 this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 14, 2020, 12:57:02 AM
Infection Rate Charts Forecast Steep Rise In US Coronavirus Cases | Rachel Maddow | MSNBC (https://youtu.be/m2HgeK73ctU)

Quote
Dr. David Ho, director and CEO of the Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center, talks with Rachel Maddow about how the shape of the graph of new coronavirus cases in other countries can be a guide to expectations for the United States. Aired on 3/13/2020.

Tip of the iceberg....
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 14, 2020, 04:01:30 AM
quite old video now, but  i picked two interesting tidbits

Medical Personnel getting infected at home


Quote
the main driver is not community infection, it is household level infection
https://youtu.be/PfR2pECJoeY?t=15800

Covid 2019 on kids
https://youtu.be/PfR2pECJoeY?t=2327
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 14, 2020, 09:24:24 AM
This makes me really sad:

Orthodox Times, 3/11/20: Church of Cyprus: Blasphemy to even think that Holy Communion can transmit any disease (https://orthodoxtimes.com/church-of-cyprus-it-would-be-blasphemous-to-think-that-christs-body-and-blood-could-transmit-any-disease/)

Quote
“Regarding the offering of the Holy Communion, the position of the Church is known. The Holy Communion does not symbolize but it is the Body and Blood of Christ. It would be blasphemous to think that Christ’s Body and Blood could transmit any disease or virus. Based upon the centuries-old experience of Christianity, there is no evidence of such transmission. The priests who served in infectious diseases hospitals and administered the Holy Communion to those patients, in the end, received the remainder of the Divine Communion themselves by using the same spoon. No priest was infected in these cases.

One attends the sacrament of the Holy Communion with faith, which protects against all danger. Participation is voluntary. No one is forced. If some feel that they want to abstain from the sacrament in that time, they are free to do so.”

Literally expecting a miracle from God to protect their members against a virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 14, 2020, 09:27:39 AM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8111771/amp/First-human-trials-coronavirus-vaccine-start-days-US.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8111771/amp/First-human-trials-coronavirus-vaccine-start-days-US.html)
First human trials of coronavirus vaccine could start within days in the US after it bypassed animal testing in accelerated process
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 14, 2020, 10:17:15 AM
Literally expecting a miracle from God to protect their members against a virus.

same here in Greece. BTW communion in the Orthodox church is wine and a form of bread crumps iside
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 14, 2020, 01:58:20 PM
This makes me really sad:

Orthodox Times, 3/11/20: Church of Cyprus: Blasphemy to even think that Holy Communion can transmit any disease (https://orthodoxtimes.com/church-of-cyprus-it-would-be-blasphemous-to-think-that-christs-body-and-blood-could-transmit-any-disease/)

Literally expecting a miracle from God to protect their members against a virus.

Next up, the flagellants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 14, 2020, 02:29:21 PM
Itallians got spirit!

https://twitter.com/SisKathleen/status/1238395121663643648?s=19 (https://twitter.com/SisKathleen/status/1238395121663643648?s=19)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 14, 2020, 02:38:05 PM
Today Italy added 2313 cases and 196 deaths to their totals.  They have around 10,000 active cases, 10% of which are critical.

Italy now has 206 cases per million inhabitants, the highest in any country.  China is 56.

Italy now has 350 cases per million population.  China is still 56.  US up to 7.5.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 14, 2020, 04:08:39 PM
Just looking at some posts on other forums, I predict that in a few days we'll see massive promotion of "natural" quinine plus zinc as a COVID-19 cure.

More reading from John Hopkins, Columbia, and Stanford:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub (https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub)
An Effective Treatment for Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Presented by: Thomas R. Broker, PhD (Stanford PhD, broker@uab.edu), James M. Todaro, MD (Columbia MD, jtodaro2@gmail.com) and Gregory J. Rigano, Esq. (grigano1@jhu.edu)
In consultation with Stanford University School of Medicine, UAB School of Medicine and National Academy of Sciences researchers.

March 13, 2020
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 14, 2020, 05:04:28 PM
WaPo:  Surge in coronavirus patients threatens to swamp U.S. hospitals (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/14/hospital-doctors-patients-coronavirus/)

Quote
Hospitals across the United States are erecting triage tents outside emergency rooms, squeezing extra beds into break rooms and physical therapy gyms, and recommending delays in elective surgery to free up capacity as they brace for an anticipated surge in coronavirus patients.

No one can say if the preparations will be enough as the pandemic accelerates in the coming days and weeks. If the virus were to spread as rapidly in the United States as it has in China, Italy and Iran, hospital executives say the burden on the health-care system could be crippling, with demand for beds and some specialized equipment needed to treat patients and protect staff far exceeding supply.

Quote
Mass anxiety is causing problems at hospitals by driving unnecessary traffic to emergency rooms. Hackensack University Medical Center said it was managing the increase in hospitalizations but has been deluged with people with minimal or no symptoms seeking tests at the emergency room. It was diverting those “worried well'' people, up to seven visits an hour on Thursday night, into a separate biocontainment unit to be evaluated, instructed on how to reduce infections and sent home.

“They’re gumming up the system and gumming up acute care with the worried well,” said Joseph Underwood, chairman of emergency medicine at the hospital. “Responding to this type of rhetoric is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

Quote
A World Health Organization report on Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, found 80 percent of the people infected had only mild symptoms, 15 percent needed highly concentrated oxygen and 5 percent — the most seriously ill — needed mechanical ventilators. Even more alarming, infectious disease experts have pointed out, is that the recovery period for many patients was three to six weeks.

Quote
“Everything is based on just-in-time inventories. We’ve depleted inventories in hospitals, and they don’t want their cash sitting on the shelves, they want it in the bank,'' said Brock Slabach, senior vice president of member services at the National Rural Health Association. “Supply chain management has become very efficient, but in times of stress, when you have beyond normal capacity surge, it creates problems.''

Quote
Another dire shortage emerged at a hospital dealing with the pandemic in Washington State, Saha said. Evergreen Health ran out of a type of protective gear called a purified air-powered respirator, or PAPR, which is needed for workers to clean the room and handle the remains of a coronavirus patient who has died.

It took nine hours to locate 21 PAPRs, creating a delay in preparing for the next patient, Saha said. Airlines are prohibited from transporting PAPRs because they are categorized as a hazardous material, she explained, so it had to be transported by ground. Premier has asked the government to permit air transport of the devices.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 14, 2020, 05:06:50 PM
Georgia is postponing their presidential primary due to coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 14, 2020, 09:30:04 PM
More reading from John Hopkins, Columbia, and Stanford:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub (https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub)
An Effective Treatment for Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Presented by: Thomas R. Broker, PhD (Stanford PhD, broker@uab.edu), James M. Todaro, MD (Columbia MD, jtodaro2@gmail.com) and Gregory J. Rigano, Esq. (grigano1@jhu.edu)
In consultation with Stanford University School of Medicine, UAB School of Medicine and National Academy of Sciences researchers.

March 13, 2020


This is a very strange paper.  It contains some info that inspires hope, and some info that seems to be written by people with very minimal understanding of biochemistry.  The first author listed, Thomas R Broker PhD, is indeed a professor of biochemistry at U of Alabama at Birmingham.  The second, James M Todaro MD, seems to be an ophthalmologist, and I'm thinking he's the central guy behind this paper based on his tweet (https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1238553266369318914).  The third guy, Gregory J. Rigano Esq, seems to be a lawyer.

It's sort of a compendium of bits of info.  The references cite a telephone discussion with the alleged lead author (Broker) as a source of information, which makes me wonder how much input Broker really had into the writing of this paper.

Leaving that aside, I'm feeling hopeful about chloroquine and similar compounds.  It would be great if this turns into a viable treatment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 14, 2020, 10:18:51 PM
Well, California cannot run a quarantine. I know this will not surprise most of you.  California Department of Health is in charge of quarantine for the California residents who were on the Cruise ship that disembarked in Oakland ( San Francisco Bay) recently.  This is worse the the ones quarantining on the ship off the coast of Japan last month, at least in that cae the people were kept isolated. Not here in California, they are not keeping people in their rooms, they are having everyone go down to the lobby at the same time, to get food !  So, if one person has the virus, they will all be exposed.  Plus, they have had issues with not having soap and towels .

https://www.ksbw.com/article/santa-cruz-resident-describes-lack-of-toiletries-aggression-during-quarantine-at-air-force-base/31517737?fbclid=IwAR1HYaAhJX17lCK7oAerLQPhGWVf5_Br-wT7XkLMiKxPuTfZTxwcbXyqLGo

Quote
Richard Lovelace said there was a lack of towels, blankets, tooth paste and even soap. Lovelace also said that there was no organization when catered food was brought to the hotel lobby and "Next thing you know people started pushing in line and then it was a mob around the food counters. Some people were a little unruly since we didn't know when our next meal would come."

California likes to complain about the Feds, but this has NOTHING to do with the federal government, who nicely has given us money to help with all of this, so our own department of health can botch the job.  I am sure the fed quarantine for the last cruise passengers at Travis AFB was handled much better, but it is not the Air forces job to keep doing it...

Edited to add:  The whole food in the lobby thing makes me think they are using their play book for evacuations and evacuees, from a fire or earthquake.  So, yes, then this is what we do.  But, this is for an infectuous disease where we are not sheltiering and feeding, we are supposed to keep them isolated !
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 15, 2020, 01:21:03 PM
Italy now has 350 cases per million population.  China is still 56.  US up to 7.5.

Overnight, there are now more cases outside (~87,000) of China than inside (~81,000).

Italy added nearly 3,600 cases for a total of almost 25,000, with more than 1,800 total deaths.  Cases per million inhabitants is up to 409 in Italy, and the US is now above 10.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 15, 2020, 01:41:37 PM
Watched a YT vid with the Editor of JAMA interviewing one of the physicians from the Lombardy region talking about their experiences... it was quite interesting.

He did not confirm that Italy is not able to treat all patients presenting themselves for hospitalization as I had seen reported elsewhere... he didn't really deny that they are having to triage and treat only those patients with the best chance for survival, but then... he may well have been reluctant to inspire panic when they are working as hard as they can to increase capacity, etc.

Anyone else see it? Your opinions? https://youtu.be/TKS1pahoPRU
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 15, 2020, 03:07:03 PM
Watched a YT vid with the Editor of JAMA interviewing one of the physicians from the Lombardy region talking about their experiences... it was quite interesting.

He did not confirm that Italy is not able to treat all patients presenting themselves for hospitalization as I had seen reported elsewhere... he didn't really deny that they are having to triage and treat only those patients with the best chance for survival, but then... he may well have been reluctant to inspire panic when they are working as hard as they can to increase capacity, etc.

Anyone else see it? Your opinions? https://youtu.be/TKS1pahoPRU

That's great information and guidance for hospitals looking at preparing for numbers of cases like he's seen these last 3 weeks.

The video was recorded on 3/12/20 when Italy had around 15,000 cases and his system's <800 ICU beds were all full. 

Three days later, they now have ~25,000 cases. 

Unfortunately, with respiratory failure patients requiring a week or more of mechanical ventilation to recover, it's unlikely they have been able keep up with the influx of new severe cases. 

If Italy wasn't rationing then, they are now.

And other western countries will be in the same boat, soon.

Stay healthy.  This is going to be a long emergency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 15, 2020, 04:11:13 PM
one can get very interesting info out of this table (can be sorted by factor by clicking the arrows on its right)Sorted for cases per million
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Norway and switzerland take 2nd and 3rd place.

spain isn't doing that well, death rate is the second largest, at 3.7% which is just under China's 3.9
Iraq has by far the worst death to cases ratio at above 10%

and the USa is still low on all indexes
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 15, 2020, 05:17:33 PM
Here is another interesting vid coming out of Italy Dr. Giacomo Grasselli for the Norwegians: https://youtu.be/BY7te2LH6_k

Dr. Grasselli is stating that 12.7% of the total identified cases are needing intensive care -- 40% needing hospitalization. That is huge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 15, 2020, 06:03:28 PM
Wired, 3/14/20: How Long Does the Coronavirus Last on Surfaces? (https://www.wired.com/story/how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces/)

Quote
...The researchers exposed various materials to the virus in the lab. They found that it remained virulent on surfaces for a lengthy period: from up to 24 hours on cardboard to up to two or three days on plastic and stainless steel. It also remained viable in aerosols—attached to particles that stay aloft in the air—for up to three hours. That’s all basically in line with the stability of SARS, the coronavirus that caused an outbreak in the early 2000s, the researchers note. ...

...while the researchers tested how long the virus can survive in aerosols suspended in the air, they didn’t actually sample the air around infected people. Instead, they put the virus into a nebulizer and puffed it into a rotating drum to keep it airborne. Then they tested how long the virus could survive in the air inside the drum. The fact that it could live under these conditions for three hours doesn’t mean it’s “gone airborne”—that it hangs around so long in the air that a person can get it just from sharing airspace with an infected person. ...

The research paper, which is still in non-peer-reviewed preprint form, is currently on its 2nd revision and is available here:

3/13/20: Aerosol and surface stability of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to SARS-CoV-1 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v2)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 15, 2020, 06:40:56 PM
Here is another interesting vid coming out of Italy Dr. Giacomo Grasselli for the Norwegians: https://youtu.be/BY7te2LH6_k

Dr. Grasselli is stating that 12.7% of the total identified cases are needing intensive care -- 40% needing hospitalization. That is huge.

And very scary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 15, 2020, 07:03:21 PM
WaPo:  ‘We’ll improvise’: A resource-starved rural hospital steels itself for coronavirus’s arrival (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/well-improvise-a-resource-starved-rural-hospital-steels-itself-for-coronaviruss-arrival/2020/03/14/a724d1ac-6604-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html)

Quote
The hospital was still waiting on a test result for its first possible case of the novel coronavirus when the staff crowded into a meeting room late last week to finalize plans for a potential outbreak. Employees at tiny Dayton General Hospital had spent the past month marshaling what few resources they could as they watched the virus spread from China to Italy to Seattle and finally toward them in rural America, which they worried was the most vulnerable place of all.

“How are we on masks and protective gear?” asked Shane McGuire, the hospital’s CEO.

“Getting low,” the supply manager said. “I can’t buy anything. Everything’s out of stock.”

“How about our staffing?” McGuire asked. “We need to make contingency plans in case some of us get exposed and need backup.”

Nobody answered, and McGuire looked around the room at his pharmacy department of one, at his 70-year-old doctor, who was working alone in the emergency room, and at his lab director, who was now also in charge of infection control. Most people on his staff were already working multiple jobs to keep the hospital functioning. “I know we’re stretched thin as it is,” McGuire said. “We’ll improvise and make it work however we can.”

Quote
The virus had just arrived in rural America, but already, small hospitals across the country had begun bumping up against the limitations of their resources. A facility in the Berkshires had lost much of its nursing staff to a 14-day quarantine. A critical access hospital in North Texas had only one face shield in storage and couldn’t acquire any others. A hospital in Wisconsin was borrowing sterilized medical gowns from local dentists. And throughout the hard-hit areas of Washington state, rural hospitals with only a handful of beds had begun making plans to set up tents or rent vacant buildings in case extra space was needed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 15, 2020, 07:21:34 PM
And that's if we could manage to scrounge up a enough ventilators to treat 20 million cases of pneumonia.  Which we can't, because we've got less than 100,000 ventilators in this country.  That means were looking at a triage situation where utilitarian ethical decisions get made about who will benefit society the most by getting the respirator necessary to save their life.  That's a really shitty situation for everyone.


WaPo:  Spiking U.S. coronavirus cases could force rationing decisions similar to those made in Italy, China  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/15/coronavirus-rationing-us/)

Quote
Such tough choices could well be ahead for the United States, a nation with limited hospital capacity and grim epidemiological projections estimating that as many as 40 to 60 percent of the country’s population of 327 million could eventually become infected.

Quote
The situation in the U.S. is more complicated than in many other nations due to this country’s diversity, deep political and economic divisions and decentralized decision-making. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has laid out general principles for how to allocate scarce resources in a pandemic response plan, but leaves most of the details to individual states and institutions. The result is a patchwork of approaches — with some states proposing broad, ethical principles to determine need, and others assigning priority scores using detailed algorithms for patients based on their condition, preexisting health problems, and age.

In an extreme outbreak, rationing would raise tortured questions: Should someone with a terminal cancer or serious heart disease get more or less priority? Should the CEO of a hospital or a health worker be able to jump the queue? What about pregnant women? How should prisoners or undocumented immigrants be considered? All things being equal, would a lottery or coin flip be an equitable approach?

Quote
U.S. ethicists have historically talked about saving the most lives as doing the greatest good. But with greater recognition these days of factors such as quality of life and burdens on the health care system, the discussion has shifted from maximizing lives saved to maximizing life years. Saving one child may outweigh the “good” of saving two elderly adults, according to the cold arithmetic of life expectancy.

Lee Daugherty Biddison, an associate professor of pulmonary and critical care at Johns Hopkins Medicine, said the idea is to give priority to those “most likely to live a long life after they got though the current epidemic”: “The thinking is, 'Am I going to survive the flu to die of advanced cancer in three months?"

Quote
Philip M. Rosoff, professor emeritus of at Duke University School of Medicine and chair of its hospital ethics committee from 2005 to 2019, compared the New York strategy to a battlefield triage plan — except that in the latter you have a finite beginning and a reasonably finite end. But in the case of covid-19, he said, “no one really knows if and when this really ramps up."

The plan’s basic outlines are simple and “fairly draconian,” Rosoff explained. “If you are in respiratory failure and there is a ventilator available and an ICU bed, and you meet certain medical criteria, you go on the ventilator. You have a certain amount of time to get better. If you don’t, we’ll take you off and give it to someone else.”

“If you take it off someone who is not doing very well,” he added, “the reality is they die.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 15, 2020, 07:33:08 PM
Guardian:  UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'  (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised)

Quote
The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.

The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.

It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons becoming infected with the coronavirus over that time.

Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.

The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: CandyGram4Mongo on March 15, 2020, 09:42:55 PM
Interest rates cut to zero and quantitative easing “stimulus” launched:
 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-slashes-key-interest-rates-to-0-and-announces-700-billion-qe-program-dollar-swap-to-address-coronavirus-panic-2020-03-15?mod=mw_latestnews (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-slashes-key-interest-rates-to-0-and-announces-700-billion-qe-program-dollar-swap-to-address-coronavirus-panic-2020-03-15?mod=mw_latestnews)

Looks like a vaccine for the US economy?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on March 15, 2020, 10:53:34 PM
Trump announced the cut was 0.00 to 0.25
So........0 for some...........0.25 for others?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 16, 2020, 12:00:41 AM
NYT:  Two Emergency Room Doctors Are in Critical Condition With Coronavirus (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/us/coronavirus-physicians-emergency-rooms.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article)

Quote
Two emergency medicine doctors, in New Jersey and Washington State, are in critical condition as a result of coronavirus, reinforcing concerns that the nation’s front-line medical workers are becoming especially vulnerable to the virus, the American College of Emergency Physicians said.

“A lot of us think that despite everything we do, we will probably be exposed,” said Dr. William Jaquis, the chair of the group. Still, he said, “The first reported case certainly sends a shock wave through the community.

Quote
One of the ill physicians, a man in his 40s, is a doctor at EvergreenHealth Medical Center in Kirkland, Wash., a hospital near Seattle which has seen one of the largest concentrations of cases in the United States.

Quote
The other physician, a doctor in his 70s in Paterson, N.J., was also in isolation in intensive care. The doctor led his institution’s emergency preparedness and was admitted to the hospital several days ago with upper respiratory problems, the physicians’ group said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 16, 2020, 01:00:13 AM
Guardian:  UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'  (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised)

By and large what that study for the Uk and Whales i posted says...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 16, 2020, 05:50:26 AM
update from Greece...

During the weekend new regulations were enforced.
Most public services are setting up remote procedures for once insutu transactions (i.e. i had a business in the local unemployment office, and i did it by emailing them).
Distances withing buyers are recommended and a maximum of people in the supermarkets (1 per 12 square yards of floor space).
By government decree there is a maximum of disinfectant allowed (3 per buyer), though only antibacterial soap is available anymore.
I payed a visit to a local one for a 2 week creature comforts buying, and i happened on a visit of the police, checking the enforcement of rules.

edit: in the news just now.
ALL retail stores will be closed starting wensday (other than supermarkets and pharmacies)
A 14 day quarantine for those entering the country will be enforced by seclusion in home
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 16, 2020, 01:59:18 PM
More restriction recommendations from the feds to flatten the curve. No gatherings of more than 10 people, even within the home. If one family member tests positive the entire family should stay home. Possible emergency hospitals, to be built by Corps of Engineers, are under consideration.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 16, 2020, 04:59:02 PM
Update from the greater San Francisco Bay Area California.  I will give you this link for one county, but they are ALL doing it !
ORDER, not request, shelter in place, only essential services or needs allowed to go out ! Starting depends on county. Today, tomorrow, etc...

This I think is going too far.  I never thought that counties even had this authority, the states yes, but not counties.  Maybe the State emergency declaration somehow gave counties this power ?

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/16/read-shelter-in-place-order-from-six-bay-area-counties/

Quote
The following is the text of the legal order from Contra Costa County announced Monday afternoon. Other Bay Area counties – Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Francisco, Alameda and Marin, and the city of Berkeley – issued the same order:

Please read this Order carefully. Violation of or failure to comply with this Order is a misdemeanor punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both. (California Health and Safety Code § 120295, et seq.)

UNDER THE AUTHORITY OF CALIFORNIA HEALTH AND SAFETY CODE SECTIONS 101040, AND 120175, THE HEALTH OFFICER OF THE COUNTY OF CONTRA COSTA (“HEALTH OFFICER”) ORDERS:
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 16, 2020, 05:18:50 PM
ORDER, not request, shelter in place, only essential services or needs allowed to go out !

 :jaw-drop:

But if you read it, there are still a whole lot of "Essential" exceptions, like going to the grocery store.  Sorta complicated, and I'm not sure what the overall impact looks like.

My very elderly parents live in one of the affected counties.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 16, 2020, 05:22:17 PM
County public health authority has a well established legal precedent and empowers them to enact much harsher measures than this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Chemsoldier on March 16, 2020, 05:25:26 PM
Under ICS, the Incident Commander has a lot of Uthority and this is a big old incident commanded by an elected official in the case of a county.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on March 16, 2020, 05:31:11 PM
When I look at this heat map, it looks like NY and that area of the east coast including probably our area is looking the worst. Just yesterday it didn’t look so bad

Our state of MA has 200 cases, NY, CT and NJ combined are at 1000

900+ new cases just today in the US according to world odometer

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?fbclid=IwAR2GaWsMm3iHO5V5IL61xU9N22p11akG1507niDlYS0K3IrDeS5bNnDsWdk
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 16, 2020, 06:21:14 PM
Y'know, those shelter-in-place edicts from the San Francisco Bay Area look alarming at first glance, but in essence, they're not much different from the guidance issued today by the White House.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 16, 2020, 06:25:21 PM
Tweet from the National Security Council, 3/15/20:

https://twitter.com/WHNSC/status/1239398218292748292

Quote
NSC
@WHNSC

Text message rumors of a national #quarantine are FAKE. There is no national lockdown. @CDCgov has and will continue to post the latest guidance on #COVID19. #coronavirus

8:48 PM · Mar 15, 2020·TheWhiteHouse
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 16, 2020, 06:30:17 PM
Y'know, those shelter-in-place edicts from the San Francisco Bay Area look alarming at first glance, but in essence, they're not much different from the guidance issued today by the White House.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf

I just read that -- No, it isdifferent !

It is not asking, first.  You are not even supposed to be on the roads unless you have something on their list of a "good reason" 

To enforce this is going to make us EXACTLY like China -- Force will be used.   ANd, this is a bad virus, yes, you have seen here I have always taken it seriously.  And, the National list is a fine list, but that was a request, a recommendation, that most people will follow. 

I want to live in a place were that is a request and a recomendation, especially for something below the level of lets say, the Pandemic movie virus or Ebola

One of my neighbors who heard of this while I was on the phone with her ( different neighbor, this one has food at home) IS very bothered by this.  She says that people come here from communist countries and then want to be told what to do and make it like a communist country.  She was young when her family lost everything in south Vietnam and lived in a camp before making it here.  This is Order is realy bothering her.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 16, 2020, 06:59:53 PM
I want to live in a place where people follow requests and recommendations.  I’d also prefer everybody having an emergency fund for two months of expenses. But we’re stuck with asshats that go clubbing instead of isolating themselves, and sad sacks that can’t afford a $400 emergency bill.

Every country is going down this road.  Europe is locking down like a prison camp right now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 16, 2020, 07:35:28 PM
900+ new cases just today in the US according to world odometer

That is actually good news.  According to the 4 PM ET update (standard case time) it was 846 added today.  This is well below the 2-day doubling rate the media has been pushing.  In fact, the cumulative number of cases is less than half the earlier projected amount from last week. 

This puts the trend well below that of South Korea experience and nothing like that of China, Italy, Spain, or Iran. And this isnt because of less testing.  We are now testing at a rate above South Korea.  This increased testing isnt leading to large increases in cases identified.  Instead the number infected per tested is plummeting, now down to 1 in 10 (4,019 infected out of 39,859 tested), because the increased testing is just identifying negatives.

Net, things are looking good that we significantly bent the curve.  The fatality rare continues to fall as well, now below 1.8% on a running rate basis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 16, 2020, 07:53:45 PM
Who’s pushing a two day doubling rate?

Everything I’ve seen is reporting a 3 day doubling, which is where we’ve been.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 16, 2020, 08:54:57 PM
I want to live in a place where people follow requests and recommendations.  I’d also prefer everybody having an emergency fund for two months of expenses. But we’re stuck with asshats that go clubbing instead of isolating themselves, and sad sacks that can’t afford a $400 emergency bill.

Every country is going down this road.  Europe is locking down like a prison camp right now.

Well, in my county we were already going along with recommendations, that is why I am frustrated.  All they had to do is recommend some more. 

This is how I saw it working.  The county or state made a recommendation, for example, they recommend that no-one sit within 6 ft of others when out at a bar, resteraunt or movie theatre and recommend not having groups over 50 etc....  and every single place like that complied. I think they complied for a couple reasons, first can you imagine seating people 2 ft apart and someone catching the virus at your business ?  They would sue you as you were not following county health recommendations.  Second, social reason, once the first business of that type complied, then the others followed along to show the community, ie, future customers that they cared about the county and health.  If the business' comply, the customers only have compliant places. 

Also, other business were already, on their own, changing the business model for their own and customers safety, and this is more flexible than a one size fits all county rule.  So, When I picked up my feed and seed order from in front of the store, they came up with that.  And, they had already decided a few days ago to go to only that model, on their own. All other business where figuring out ways to try and work.

I think that scared people were demanding this, they want to have the government do more, even if more was already organically happening anyway.  Because that lately has been the California way.  The people here think that everything can be fully controlled, and if they can just control everyone to be the way the think is right, there will be no more sickness or whatever.  But, you cannot guarantee that no-one gets sick and dies. There are alot of second order effects that are also going to cause harm and death.  ANd, once you give up so much to be controlled like this, well, will they give us our rights back ?  They say 3 weeks. realy, This is not going to be over in 3 weeks. How will this change health directives in this state, which were already moving to be very anti-freedom ?  Are they going to force  treatments ?

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 16, 2020, 11:26:40 PM
Who’s pushing a two day doubling rate?

Everything I’ve seen is reporting a 3 day doubling, which is where we’ve been.

It has been a common storyline.  And they have also been pushing narrative of "tracking with Italy" which they say has such a doubling.  Examples:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/covid-19-patients-dc-maryland-virginia/2020/03/13/9b2c4180-6476-11ea-845d-e35b0234b136_story.html?outputType=amp (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/covid-19-patients-dc-maryland-virginia/2020/03/13/9b2c4180-6476-11ea-845d-e35b0234b136_story.html?outputType=amp)
The number of covid-19 cases in the D.C. region is doubling every 48 hours

https://news.abs-cbn.com/amp/overseas/03/02/20/covid-19-has-nearly-doubled-in-48-hours-in-italy (https://news.abs-cbn.com/amp/overseas/03/02/20/covid-19-has-nearly-doubled-in-48-hours-in-italy)
COVID-19 has nearly doubled in 48 hours in Italy
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: CandyGram4Mongo on March 17, 2020, 03:23:48 AM
“Cure” found in Australia per  https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5?fbclid=IwAR2DR6hIkg7IE3gQobtW2K7ssV6wClGifcoNEV4eByxQyW8TPKvUisIQoaU (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5?fbclid=IwAR2DR6hIkg7IE3gQobtW2K7ssV6wClGifcoNEV4eByxQyW8TPKvUisIQoaU)

“It’s a potentially effective treatment,” he said.
“Patients would end up with no viable coronavirus in their system at all after the end of therapy.”
The drugs are both already registered and available in Australia.”

Edit: Might be more of the same though:
“One of the two medications is a HIV drug, which has been superseded by “newer generation” HIV drugs, and the other is an anti-malaria drug called chloroquine which is rarely used and “kept on the shelf now” due to resistance to malaria.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 17, 2020, 07:07:37 AM
 chloroquine already exists in the Greek market, cos it is also used as a anti-rheumatic drug.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 17, 2020, 07:27:27 AM
:
“One of the two medications is a HIV drug, which has been superseded by “newer generation” HIV drugs, and the other is an anti-malaria drug called chloroquine which is rarely used and “kept on the shelf now” due to resistance to malaria.”

The HIV drug does sound like the lopinavir/ritonavir combo.  Good to see another trial quickly underway.

Interesting quote: “Our doctors were very, very surprised that a HIV drug could actually work against the novel coronavirus and there was a bit of scepticism,”

You know who wouldnt be surprised?  The Italian researchers who first identified the HIV insertions in coronavirus and were ruthlessly criticized, mocked, and forced to retract their paper on the subject.  Imagine if that didnt happen, there could be a treatment by now and Italy, their home country, wouldnt be facing the situation it currently is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 17, 2020, 08:07:15 AM
I'm smelling a lot of BS. My governor decided to close schools, close bars, close bowling alleys, close damn near everything. What's still open? Our porous border and the airport. You mean to tell me that in the spread of a viral pandemic a bowling alley is riskier than an airport?

If we're to believe the government (almost always a bad idea) any group of 10 or more people is a risk. That should shut (forget airports) every train and bus.

In a certain sense I'm very forgiving that the public is a bit confused by the response. It doesn't make sense. We should be grounded like 9/11 if they are telling the truth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 17, 2020, 08:17:20 AM
But we’re stuck with asshats that go clubbing instead of isolating themselves...........


Can the government force you to quarantine if you're infected with coronavirus? (https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2020/03/16/coronavirus-kentucky-state-law-allows-involuntary-quarantine/5060657002/)

Quote
Kentucky law gives county health departments the clear power to isolate infected patients who refuse to stay home, including the 53-year-old Nelson County man who tested positive for COVID-19 and checked himself out of University of Louisville Hospital against medical advice.

Sheriff Ramon Pineiroa said Monday that the man, who hasn’t been publicly identified, initially said he wouldn’t stay home. He has since agreed to cooperate but Pineiroa said deputies have been posted outside his home around the clock to make sure he complies.

Nelson County Judge-Executive Dean Watts declared a state of emergency that allowed him to impose a curfew and quarantine on the man and other residents in his home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 17, 2020, 08:38:30 AM
I'm smelling a lot of BS. My governor decided to close schools, close bars, close bowling alleys, close damn near everything. What's still open? Our porous border and the airport. You mean to tell me that in the spread of a viral pandemic a bowling alley is riskier than an airport?

Well, it is a political landmine field to point out the origin and spreaders of the disease. We know that the US cases have manifested primarily in the imigration sanctuary states, counties, and cities.  What many hypothesized happened is that wealthy infected Chinese fled to the US to find better health care (just like with SARS and Hong Kong) prior to the travel ban. They settled in those areas because they could overstay the Visas without repurcussions. With this creating a firm foothold, there were two options for mitigation.  One was to cut off travel from these states.  That would be completely unAmerican and probably not even physically possible.  The second was to have everywhere adopt social distancing measures to slow the spread of cases to the other states.  Now with the Italy experience and the partisan politicization of the disease (attempting to turn this into weapon for presidential campaign), the government is being pushed away from basic mitigation towards full scale suppression.  Net a choice was made to allow relatively free movement but to clamp down on social events.  Very dangerous and unecessary threat to the rights of people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Adam Campbell on March 17, 2020, 09:25:57 AM
Who’s pushing a two day doubling rate?

Everything I’ve seen is reporting a 3 day doubling, which is where we’ve been.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

On Saturday they were reporting around 2,000 cases.
On Monday they were reporting around 4,000 cases.

According to my math, that's 2 days. You can double check that, but when I count... Saturday... Sunday (1)... Monday (2)...

I get 2 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 17, 2020, 12:36:07 PM
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

On Saturday they were reporting around 2,000 cases.
On Monday they were reporting around 4,000 cases.

According to my math, that's 2 days. You can double check that, but when I count... Saturday... Sunday (1)... Monday (2)...

I get 2 days.

Of course it varies over time and by location and conditions.  In the US, the earliest cases showed a 1.7 day doubling rate.  This is because a lot were from infected people entering the country in addition to local transmission and this convolution distorted the rate.  This has dropped over time and latest data shows a 2.9 day doubling rate.  Right now, most experts expect it to quickly (within about a week) slow to a 5+ day doubling rate based on actions taken.  The worst case scenarios are reportedly now being calculated using 4 day.  The media is still pushing for as aggressive numbers as possible...gotta feed those click monster.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-17/government-coronavirus-measures-based-on-infection-doubling-rate-of-4-days-not-the-5-it-said-writes-robert-peston/ (https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-17/government-coronavirus-measures-based-on-infection-doubling-rate-of-4-days-not-the-5-it-said-writes-robert-peston/)
Government coronavirus measures based on infection doubling rate of four days - not five it said, writes Robert Peston
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 17, 2020, 01:31:08 PM
For the record, below is the sanctuary areas map and the coronavirus case map from the NY Times.

(https://allnewspipeline.com/images/Sanctuary-Cities-Map.png)
(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/03/03/us/coronavirus-us-cases-map-promo-1583277425489/coronavirus-us-cases-map-promo-1583277425489-threeByTwoSmallAt2X-v121.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 17, 2020, 01:46:59 PM
Correlation doesn’t prove causation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 17, 2020, 02:31:23 PM
Correlation doesn’t prove causation.

true https://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

(hat-tip: Mr. Bill I think it was that introduced me to that site years ago)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 17, 2020, 02:59:55 PM
Correlation doesn’t prove causation.

Ah!  But correlation is a sine qua non for causation and is an important part of the scientific method.  This was a hypothesis in place before the epidemic started.  And the data clearly supports the hypothesis (predictive validity).

It is equally flawed (actually more flawed) to dismiss such evidence without counter evidence.

Use of correlation as scientific evidence
Much of scientific evidence is based upon a correlation of variables– they are observed to occur together. Scientists are careful to point out that correlation does not necessarily mean causation. The assumption that A causes B simply because A correlates with B is often not accepted as a legitimate form of argument.

However, sometimes people commit the opposite fallacy – dismissing correlation entirely. This would dismiss a large swath of important scientific evidence. Since it may be difficult or ethically impossible to run controlled double-blind studies, correlational evidence from several different angles may be useful for prediction despite failing to provide evidence for causation. For example, social workers might be interested in knowing how child abuse relates to academic performance. Although it would be unethical to perform an experiment in which children are randomly assigned to receive or not receive abuse, researchers can look at existing groups using a non-experimental correlational design. If in fact a negative correlation exists between abuse and academic performance, researchers could potentially use this knowledge of a statistical correlation to make predictions about children outside the study who experience abuse, even though the study failed to provide causal evidence that abuse decreases academic performance. The combination of limited available methodologies with the dismissing correlation fallacy has on occasion been used to counter a scientific finding. For example, the tobacco industry has historically relied on a dismissal of correlational evidence to reject a link between tobacco and lung cancer, as did biologist and statistician Ronald Fisher.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 17, 2020, 03:31:04 PM
Medical tourism is traceable. Show me the patient records.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Hurricane on March 17, 2020, 05:30:50 PM
While you are counting new cases, remember that as more test kits become available, more people will test positive. There are probably a lot of positives out there who haven't been tested yet. Once tests are readily available anywhere, then the numbers will mean more.

But we also have to remember that these hastily-produced kits MAY not be 100% accurate. In either direction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 17, 2020, 05:35:48 PM
While you are counting new cases, remember that as more test kits become available, more people will test positive. There are probably a lot of positives out there who haven't been tested yet. Once tests are readily available anywhere, then the numbers will mean more.

But we also have to remember that these hastily-produced kits MAY not be 100% accurate. In either direction.

yes.  Thank you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 17, 2020, 06:07:53 PM
Medical tourism is traceable. Show me the patient records.

Sure, if you gather the cases I will review them.  Then we could write it up and submit to Journal of Travel Medicine.  There are several articles predicting the pattern of coronavirus spread via routes from Wuhan based on volume.  We could use those for background comparing to actuals and layering in clinical cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 17, 2020, 07:41:01 PM
This makes me really sad:

Orthodox Times, 3/11/20: Church of Cyprus: Blasphemy to even think that Holy Communion can transmit any disease (https://orthodoxtimes.com/church-of-cyprus-it-would-be-blasphemous-to-think-that-christs-body-and-blood-could-transmit-any-disease/)

Literally expecting a miracle from God to protect their members against a virus.

Here is how it is being handled in Catholic parishes:

https://www.krtv.com/news/local-news/great-falls-news/worship-safely-diocese-bishop-offers-tips-to-stay-safe-during-mass (https://www.krtv.com/news/local-news/great-falls-news/worship-safely-diocese-bishop-offers-tips-to-stay-safe-during-mass)
Worship safely: Diocese Bishop offers tips to stay safe during Mass
Bishop Michael Warfel of the Great Falls-Billings Diocese
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Chemsoldier on March 17, 2020, 07:51:10 PM
I'm smelling a lot of BS. My governor decided to close schools, close bars, close bowling alleys, close damn near everything. What's still open? Our porous border and the airport. You mean to tell me that in the spread of a viral pandemic a bowling alley is riskier than an airport?

If we're to believe the government (almost always a bad idea) any group of 10 or more people is a risk. That should shut (forget airports) every train and bus.

In a certain sense I'm very forgiving that the public is a bit confused by the response. It doesn't make sense. We should be grounded like 9/11 if they are telling the truth.
Once you have community transmission I dont know that external sources are comparatively worse.  Also there are always going to be people that need to travel for one reason or another so they dont want all flights to stop. 

Also, I am unsure a governor can unilaterally shut down air travel into their state, I would assume that falls under interstate commerce. So that would be the president's decision in the short term.  Not shutting down air travel may end up being a mistake in hindsight, but probably not something rotten in Denmark.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 17, 2020, 09:59:59 PM
Here is how it is being handled in Catholic parishes:

https://www.krtv.com/news/local-news/great-falls-news/worship-safely-diocese-bishop-offers-tips-to-stay-safe-during-mass (https://www.krtv.com/news/local-news/great-falls-news/worship-safely-diocese-bishop-offers-tips-to-stay-safe-during-mass)
Worship safely: Diocese Bishop offers tips to stay safe during Mass
Bishop Michael Warfel of the Great Falls-Billings Diocese


Well darn.  Just got latest from our bishop. And not a confirmed case within a hundred miles of here.  This is going to be hard on elderly.  For some, this is only substantive interaction they receive with others.  And we cant visit them due to other restrictions.

(http://www.evdio.org/uploads/2/6/3/0/26308718/decree-page-001_orig.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 17, 2020, 10:28:04 PM
WaPo:  A chilling scientific paper helped upend U.S. and U.K. coronavirus strategies (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/a-chilling-scientific-paper-helped-upend-us-and-uk-coronavirus-strategies/2020/03/17/aaa84116-6851-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html)

Quote
Immediately after Boris Johnson completed his Monday evening news conference, which saw a somber prime minister encourage his fellow citizens to avoid "all nonessential contact with others," his aides hustled reporters into a second, off-camera briefing.

That session presented jaw-dropping numbers from some of Britain’s top modelers of infectious disease, who predicted the deadly course of the coronavirus could quickly kill hundreds of thousands in both the United Kingdom and the United States, as surges of sick and dying patients overwhelmed hospitals and critical care units.

The new forecasts, by Neil Ferguson and his colleagues at the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, were quickly endorsed by Johnson’s government to design new and more extreme measures to suppress the spread of the virus.

The report is also influencing planning by the Trump administration. Deborah Birx, who serves as the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, cited the British analysis at a news conference Monday, saying her response team was especially focused on the report’s conclusion that an entire household should self-quarantine for 14 days if one of its members is stricken by the virus.

The Imperial College London group reported that if nothing was done by governments and individuals and the pandemic remained uncontrolled, 510,000 would die in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States over the course of the outbreak.



Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team:  Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

Quote
Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over.  In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined.  In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.  In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due  to COVID-19 based on  experience in Italy and the  UK (previous  planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity. We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 18, 2020, 07:56:36 AM
Once you have community transmission I dont know that external sources are comparatively worse.  Also there are always going to be people that need to travel for one reason or another so they dont want all flights to stop. 

Also, I am unsure a governor can unilaterally shut down air travel into their state, I would assume that falls under interstate commerce. So that would be the president's decision in the short term.  Not shutting down air travel may end up being a mistake in hindsight, but probably not something rotten in Denmark.

Maybe. But do I really need to be stopped from going to the corner restaurant for a beer and a Juicy Lucy (the Minnesota hamburger where the cheese is in the meat) OR... and I'm just spitballing here... Maybe I need to be protected from a now infected homeless population from Calcutta on the Pacific where Gavin Newsome has wisely decided to exempt the homeless from his "shelter in place" order and encouraged street defecation.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/homeless-person-silicon-valley-died-183930135.html

I'm all for social distancing and taking practical measures. But if we don't honestly look at the fact that Washington has an issue and California is prime for an outbreak we're not doing ourselves well. We grounded planes on 9/11 but now we just can't? If this was being taken seriously it would look different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 18, 2020, 08:12:03 AM
https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993

A very interesting article... a few days old.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 18, 2020, 09:04:13 AM
This analysis from Harvard is making the rounds in social media today.  It looks at projected hospital bed utilization by area under various extreme scenarios.  For reference, the top left box is approximately 1.5 to 2 times typical seasonal flu infections.  Bottom left corner is Spanish Flu Pandemic levels (worse ever on modern record).  Bottom right is the worst, worst case scenario we saw in media early on (i.e. 60% population infected by July 1).

Key take away is this can give perspective on how your area is likely to do:

(http://libertyassociate.com/survival_podcast/Hospitals.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 18, 2020, 03:29:27 PM
MMWR:  Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020 (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_e&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM23064)

Quote
SUMMARY

What is already known about this topic?

Early data from China suggest that a majority of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths have occurred among adults aged ≥60 years and among persons with serious underlying health conditions.

What is added by this report?

This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years.

What are the implications for public health practice?

COVID-19 can result in severe disease, including hospitalization, admission to an intensive care unit, and death, especially among older adults. Everyone can take actions, such as social distancing, to help slow the spread of COVID-19 and protect older adults from severe illness.

Quote
The risk for serious disease and death in COVID-19 cases among persons in the United States increases with age. Social distancing is recommended for all ages to slow the spread of the virus, protect the health care system, and help protect vulnerable older adults. Further, older adults should maintain adequate supplies of nonperishable foods and at least a 30-day supply of necessary medications, take precautions to keep space between themselves and others, stay away from those who are sick, avoid crowds as much as possible, avoid cruise travel and nonessential air travel, and stay home as much as possible to further reduce the risk of being exposed. Persons of all ages and communities can take actions to help slow the spread of COVID-19 and protect older adults.


Nothing really new here in this preliminary data, it merely reinforces the fact that the disease will behave similarly to what has been observed in other countries, namely that this coronavirus is adept at culling the herd of its old and sick, while paralyzing society and the medical system in the process.

The old and/or sick must get themselves prepared to avoid, for at least a month, coming into contact with the increasing number of mild cases of COVID-19 arising in their communities.

That's what I've convinced my parents to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Stwood on March 18, 2020, 04:23:36 PM




The old and/or sick must get themselves prepared to avoid, for at least a month, coming into contact with the increasing number of mild cases of COVID-19 arising in their communities.



Starting *now* I assume.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 18, 2020, 04:29:38 PM
Starting *now* I assume.

ASAP!
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 18, 2020, 04:43:12 PM
Regardless of what the true fatality rate is, it’s always worse when the hospital beds and ventilators run out. A 60 year old who could have easily survived this pneumonia with ICU treatment is going to die on a cot in medical isolation tent at the local fairgrounds instead.


Oregon is Opening a 250-Bed Emergency Hospital on State Fairgrounds to Treat COVID-19 Patients (https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/03/18/oregon-is-opening-a-250-bed-emergency-hospital-on-state-fairgrounds-to-treat-covid-19-patients/)


Here we go.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Carver on March 18, 2020, 05:22:39 PM
The main concern of the media seems to be that Trump keeps referring to this as the "China Virus" instead of covid-19. They say this is racist, even warmongering. They are really upset about this, even more than they are the virus itself. This might approach an impeachable offense in the "mind" of Adam Schiff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 18, 2020, 05:24:44 PM
Some uncovered good news in today's report.  Looks like WA has it coming under control.  Today only 108 new positives out of 1,643 tests.

Date   State   Positive.  Negative
20200318   WA   1,012   13,117
20200317   WA   904    11,582
20200316   WA   769    9,451
20200315   WA   642    7,122
20200314   WA   568    6,001
20200313   WA   457    4,350
20200312   WA   337    3,037
20200311   WA   267    2,175
20200310   WA   162    1,110
20200309   WA   136    1,110
20200307   WA   102    370
20200306   WA   79.      370
20200305   WA   70.      ND
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 19, 2020, 08:08:07 AM
First independent trial of hydroxychloroquine+Azithromycin showed 100% cure rate.  Time to fast track confirmation trials.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2020/03/19/fox-interview-malaria-drug-to-treat-n2565260 (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2020/03/19/fox-interview-malaria-drug-to-treat-n2565260)
Did Researchers Find an Effective Wuhan Coronavirus Treatment?

According to Gregory Rigano, an advisor to Stanford University School of Medicine, a world renowned French researcher tested a promising COVID-19 treatment option with a drug that’s been around for decades...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 19, 2020, 11:17:49 AM
Thought people may like to see what our local drive through testing service looks like.  Bit of excitement there today as they found first two positive cases.  They were out of staters who drove here to be tested.  They are back home in quarantine now.

(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2020/03/18/PEVC/f98a1f20-455a-4ee4-893b-9d1ae21200ed-ds31820cvdrivethruclinic3.jpg?width=1280)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on March 19, 2020, 12:08:09 PM


https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-kentucky-man-will-not-quarantine-police-guard-20200316-4kncx2zxlbh4reojf6o6dgv7z4-story.html

A Kentucky man who tested positive for coronavirus and refused to quarantine himself is now being guarded by police, Gov. Andy Beshear said Sunday.

The 53-year-old Nelson County man tested positive at the University of Louisville, then left against medical advice, Beshear told reporters, according to the Lexington Herald-Leader. After health authorities asked him to self-quarantine, he said no.

The man has been confined to his home by a police guard stationed nearby, Beshear said.

To enforce the quarantine, a local judge had to declare a state of emergency to make use of an obscure statutory ability to enforce a “self-isolation or quarantine,” the Herald-Leader said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 19, 2020, 02:33:10 PM
An interesting YT vid from Freedomain. The guest gave information about the origin of the virus and some interesting information about the various mutations:

https://youtu.be/J6VEYzwSdZU

I found the information about antiviral home remedies and other treatments (very end of the video) especially interesting... probably not a lot of new info. for most of us, but a nice overview and recommendation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 19, 2020, 04:54:38 PM
(https://fair.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/FT-Coronavirus-Chart.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 19, 2020, 05:44:33 PM
First independent trial of hydroxychloroquine+Azithromycin showed 100% cure rate.  Time to fast track confirmation trials.

This is very good news.

Worth noting that there were only 6 patients in the study who received both hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin.  But still, 100% cure is pretty amazing.

The draft, not-peer-reviewed paper: Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an open-label non-randomized clinical trial (https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view)

Awaiting yet more good news...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Knecht on March 19, 2020, 06:53:36 PM
New masks developed in CZ are about to hit the market in early April, here's something to read about them:
https://www.respilon.com/data/home/admin/1How_and_why_Virus_Killer_masks_Work.pdf
Personally I'll avoid the first batches which are actually being manufactured in Turkey. With the current development of turkish attitude towards Europe, I'm a little too paranoic and won't breathe through anything they made. This is such an awesome opportunity to bring us some more infection... I'll wait till the manufacturing starts here in CZ, which should be happening in May.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 19, 2020, 07:14:13 PM
LA County is ordering shut down of all nonessential business as of midnight, 6 hours from now.  Watching the press conference now and the leaders are trying to reassure the press that police enforcement won’t be necessary, but...... it is an order so that is always on the table.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 19, 2020, 07:46:49 PM
CA governor is ordering all nonessential activity cease at midnight tonight. Public health projections show >50% of all Californians will be infected in next 8 weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 19, 2020, 08:12:35 PM
Some uncovered good news in today's report.  Looks like WA has it coming under control.  Today only 108 new positives out of 1,643 tests.

Date   State   Positive.  Negative
20200318   WA   1,012   13,117
20200317   WA   904    11,582
20200316   WA   769    9,451
20200315   WA   642    7,122
20200314   WA   568    6,001
20200313   WA   457    4,350
20200312   WA   337    3,037
20200311   WA   267    2,175
20200310   WA   162    1,110
20200309   WA   136    1,110
20200307   WA   102    370
20200306   WA   79.      370
20200305   WA   70.      ND

Media is catching up.

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/03/19/seattle-flattening-curve/amp/ (https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/03/19/seattle-flattening-curve/amp/)
Is Seattle flattening the curve?

The evidence isn’t conclusive yet, but this is worth watching.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETa-s76UcAAIm_v?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 19, 2020, 08:33:50 PM
Hotair.com?

Allahpundit?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 19, 2020, 10:42:42 PM
today there's at least 1,376 cases now which is 364 more than yesterday in just washington. that's also at least 74 deaths
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 19, 2020, 11:13:42 PM
YouTube:  Dr. Fauci: There’s no magic drug out there right now (https://youtu.be/EIIgIKMgUIQ)

Quote
Dr. Anthony Fauci discusses an anti-malarial drug mentioned by President Trump at a press conference and whether or not it could be used to treat the coronavirus.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 19, 2020, 11:59:54 PM
today there's at least 1,376 cases now which is 364 more than yesterday in just washington. that's also at least 74 deaths

in today's (Thursday's) 4PM ET report, the number was 1,187 with 66 dead.  Yesterday, the number was 1,012 with 52 dead.  That is a change of 175 and 14 respectively. 

I think you are citing the number from the EOD PT report from the Washington State Department of Health (https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus (https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus)).  Some of those cases will make it in Friday's 4PM ET report.  Yesterday that one had 1187 and 66 dead, for a change of 189 (not 364) and 8 respectively.

The chart showing the decline in rate of cases is from University of Washington Virology division,, the group doing those tests.

Regardless of which report is used, the rate is much lower now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 20, 2020, 07:35:23 PM
In Washington, new cases under 150 again! This is based on end of day report.

This drop-off has been anticipated as have Wuhan seeing no new cases and South Korea plateauing.

(I know, I know, The Washington Times and The News Tribune arent legitimate news media...but I am sure NPR, CNN, and HuffPost will eventuslly catch up.)

https://amp.thenewstribune.com/news/coronavirus/article241383921.html (https://amp.thenewstribune.com/news/coronavirus/article241383921.html)
Washington state COVID-19 cases now at 1,524 with 83 deaths

The total was an increase of 148 cases and nine deaths over Thursday.

https://amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/11/positive-signs-for-future-of-coronavirus-in-us/ (https://amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/11/positive-signs-for-future-of-coronavirus-in-us/)
Wuhan gets back to work; positive signs for future of coronavirus in U.S.
Health experts see hope as Chinese cases crest and fall
The Washington Times - Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Latest figures from China’s National Health Commission showed 24 new coronavirus cases nationwide, and 22 more deaths as of Tuesday. All the latest deaths occurred in Wuhan, according to the Reuters news agency

Wuhan “may have zero new cases by the end of March if we work harder and if nothing sudden comes up,” Li Lanjuan, director of China’s State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, told reporters Wednesday.
..
Dr. Ferrer said he thinks it is encouraging that China appears to have reached its peak in coronavirus infections, but wants to see a leveling off in cases in other hard-hit countries, including Italy and South Korea.

He added the U.S. will see more cases as officials continue to do more testing, but said he thinks cases, as in China, will plateau in the next couple of weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 20, 2020, 09:08:46 PM
Tonight's Worldometer screenshot: 

The US added almost as many new cases to their total today as Italy and now has the fifth largest number of cases in the world.  Also, at 59, the US has surpassed China's 56 cases per million population.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49681565211_f51472e57c_b.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 20, 2020, 10:36:07 PM
NYT:  ‘Chilling’ Plans: Who Gets Care as Washington State Hospitals Fill Up? (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-in-seattle-washington-state.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
Fearing a critical shortage of supplies, including the ventilators needed to help the most seriously ill patients breathe, state officials and hospital leaders held a conference call on Wednesday night to discuss the plans, according to several people involved in the talks. The triage document, still under consideration, will assess factors such as age, health and likelihood of survival in determining who will get access to full care and who will merely be provided comfort care, with the expectation that they will die.

Quote
The state has been urgently seeking ventilators for patients and protective masks for health care workers, including from the Strategic National Stockpile, a repository of critical medical supplies for public health emergencies. Officials have also been looking to have the U.S. Navy hospital ship Mercy, which has 80 intensive care beds, dock near Seattle to handle seriously ill patients other than those who have contracted Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.

Quote
“This is a shift to caring for the population, where you look at the whole population of people who need care and make a determination about who is most likely to survive, and you provide care to them,” she said. “Those that have a less good chance of survival — but still have a chance — you do not provide care to them, which guarantees their death.”

Quote
Dr. Kathy Lofy, the state health officer, said the guidelines under discussion have come from a group of clinical experts who have in recent years worked on the issue of providing health care in challenging circumstances. “We are doing everything possible to slow the spread of the virus and increase resources within the health care system so that resources will be available for everyone who needs them,” Dr. Lofy said in a statement.

Roughly 280 people were on Wednesday’s three-hour conference call, including the chief medical officials and nursing representatives for most of the state’s hospitals and hospital systems, Ms. Sauer said. There was an overwhelming sense of shock, she said, as clinicians realized that the time to begin discussing such dire plans had arrived.

This is for real.  These discussions will be happening in a hospital near you within the next two weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 21, 2020, 12:30:56 AM
this is nothing new to the medical world, as -say- EMTs will atest.
It is called Triage.
and among protocols there is one that is called START triage, for selecting intervention on many victims accidents. Among its criteria is that if a victim cannot breathe on its own, leave it for the sake of others.
Simple as that
(I have a first hand case of critical care triage it happened on coworkers, if anyone wishes to tell)

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 21, 2020, 01:13:36 AM
this is nothing new to the medical world.....

Only partially true.  But this goes way beyond deciding who to scoop up first and get to the hospital for definitive treatment. 

This is deciding who, out of all the ICU patients already receiving definitive treatment with mechanical ventilation, will be removed from the vent and moved to a lower level of care where they will die.  That is not something critical care medicine does on a routine basis. 

In cases where further treatment is futile they stop care but never when further treatment on the vent for another week will allow the patient to walk out of the hospital.  That is totally foreign and traumatic for everyone when it just happens just once in a career, but we're talking about potentially dozens of patients per day at every hosptial.  Shitty is how I think I've described this process in this thread previously.  Really, really shitty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 21, 2020, 01:24:51 AM
Maybe in the US where ICUs are plentiful...
Real story in work. Workmate at her 45s and the elder father of another workmate are kept both in ICU for more than a  week with pulmonary issues due to seasonal flu. ICU is full. New traffic accident victim arrives. Doctors remove elder father from the ICU. Elder father expires two days later.
It may not happen in the US, but it happens at the rest of the world. Yes, i understand triage it is taxing for a medic, but this is their shake to reality in this Corona madness.

(and for that matter, doctors in the US -some the not too distant past- had to resort to harsher measures)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 21, 2020, 02:18:17 AM
Then this will be an even bigger trauma for US docs than the rest of the world. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 21, 2020, 03:05:24 AM
indeed
(btw it is said that Italy has the largest number of ICUs per capita in Europe)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Chemsoldier on March 21, 2020, 08:19:34 AM
Maybe in the US where ICUs are plentiful...
Real story in work. Workmate at her 45s and the elder father of another workmate are kept both in ICU for more than a  week with pulmonary issues due to seasonal flu. ICU is full. New traffic accident victim arrives. Doctors remove elder father from the ICU. Elder father expires two days later.
It may not happen in the US, but it happens at the rest of the world. Yes, i understand triage it is taxing for a medic, but this is their shake to reality in this Corona madness.

(and for that matter, doctors in the US -some the not too distant past- had to resort to harsher measures)

That almost sounds like an area where the US medical system has some advantages.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 21, 2020, 11:19:12 AM
Yep!
Don't you know that the US medical system is the last resort for Greeks that have rare diseases and the local doctors have raised their hands up?
Special money gatherings happen through the media from time to time, when it comew to such children.
Let alone that most experimental cure protocols happen in the US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 21, 2020, 05:08:08 PM
Important letter from John P.A. Ioannidis, professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.  Below are some excerpts but whole letter worse a read.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/)
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.

That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.
...
If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams.

Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?

The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have.

In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns.
...
In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.

The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.
...
If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 21, 2020, 07:10:47 PM
The US continued climbing and now is in third place.  No reason we can't be #1 in the next week.

Italy lost 800 people today, which is 17% of their total deaths in a single day. 


(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49685158942_832b91ca10_b.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 21, 2020, 07:27:26 PM
NY has already added almost 2000 more cases since this screenshot. 

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49685221897_9968bec386_b.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 21, 2020, 07:30:31 PM
Fauci's straight talk on hydroxychloroquine: it might work, it's likely to be safe, it's great to have hope -- but it's not proven and we should not count on it.

Business Insider, 3/21/20: Trump keeps touting a decades-old malaria pill as a coronavirus 'game changer', undercutting his top infectious-disease expert (https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-undercuts-fauci-on-whether-chloroquine-can-treat-coronavirus-2020-3)

Quote
...French doctors are researching the use of hydrochloroquine together with the antibiotic azithromycin, and early reports have been promising, though the study is small. It isn't a randomized controlled trial, the gold standard for medical research.

Doctors in the US can technically prescribe chloroquine as a treatment, since it is approved for treating other ailments, even though it has not yet been approved for this use. Already, increased use of the pills has led to a shortage, making it difficult for patients who rely on the drugs to get refills, such as people with lupus.

At a briefing on Thursday, Trump said chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine had been approved by the Food and Drug Administration to treat the coronavirus. But shortly after, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn contradicted Trump, saying that the FDA would need to determine that in a clinical trial. The drug has not been approved for COVID-19 patients. ...

...reporters asked for clarification at Friday's White House briefing about whether the drugs were known treatments for COVID-19.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, responded bluntly: "The answer is no, and the evidence that you're talking about ... is anecdotal evidence.

"We're trying to strike a balance between making something with a potential of an effect to the American people available, at the same time that we do it under the auspices of a protocol that would give us information to determine if it's truly safe and truly effective," Fauci said. "But the information that you're referring to specifically is anecdotal, it was not done in a controlled clinical trial. So you really can't make any definitive statement about it."...

"Fundamentally, I think it probably is going to be safe, but I like to prove things first, so it really is a question of not a lot of difference," Fauci said. "It's the hope that will work, versus proving that it will work."
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 21, 2020, 08:15:53 PM
NYT:  Italy, Pandemic’s New Epicenter, Has Lessons for the World (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html)

Quote
As Italy’s coronavirus infections ticked above 400 cases and deaths hit the double digits, the leader of the governing Democratic Party posted a picture of himself clinking glasses for “an aperitivo in Milan,” urging people “not to change our habits.”

That was on Feb. 27. Not 10 days later, as the toll hit 5,883 infections and 233 dead, the party boss, Nicola Zingaretti, posted a new video, this time informing Italy that he, too, had the virus.

Italy now has more than 53,000 recorded infections and more than 4,800 dead, and the rate of increase keeps growing, with more than half the cases and fatalities coming in the past week. On Saturday, officials reported 793 additional deaths, by far the largest single-day increase so far. Italy has surpassed China as the country with the highest death toll, becoming the epicenter of a shifting pandemic.

Quote
On Saturday night, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced another drastic step in response to what he called the country’s most difficult crisis since the Second World War: Italy will close its factories and all production that is not absolutely essential, an enormous economic sacrifice intended to contain the virus and protect lives.

“The state is here,” he said in an effort to reassure the public.

But the tragedy of Italy now stands as a warning to its European neighbors and the United States, where the virus is coming with equal velocity. If Italy’s experience shows anything, it is that measures to isolate affected areas and limit the movement of the broader population need to be taken early, put in place with absolute clarity, then strictly enforced.

Despite now having some of the toughest measures in the world, Italian authorities fumbled many of those steps early in the contagion — when it most mattered as they sought to preserve basic civil liberties as well as the economy.

Quote
“Now we are running after it,” said Sandra Zampa, the under secretary at the Ministry of Health, who said Italy did the best it could given the information it had. “We closed gradually, as Europe is doing. France, Spain, Germany, the U.S. are doing the same. Every day you close a bit, you give up on a bit of normal life. Because the virus does not allow normal life.”

Some officials gave in to magical thinking, reluctant to make painful decisions sooner. All the while, the virus fed on that complacency.

Quote
Italy is still paying the price of those early mixed messages by scientists and politicians. The people who have died in staggering numbers recently — more than 2,300 in the last four days — were mostly infected during the confusion of a week or two ago.

Roberto Burioni, a prominent virologist at the San Raffaele University in Milan, said that people had felt safe to go about their usual routines and he attributed the spike in cases last week to “that behavior.”


Stay at home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: IKN on March 21, 2020, 08:25:20 PM
Me, I don't trust people in positions like Fauci. It always seem like these people are always in the pockets of Big Pharma.
Pharmaceutical corporations have proven many times over they are more than willing to kill or let people die if it increases their bottom line. To them, $300 million in court settlements is a drop in the bucket if they can rake in BILLIONS.
When crap like that happens, the laws need changed to make the board members criminally liable. They wouldn't do it if it meant spending the rest of their lives in prison.

If hydrochloroquine and azithromycin actually work like other countries are touting, there's not much money in it for them since the patents have long expired, where-as developing a new drug would be a mega cash cow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on March 21, 2020, 09:38:38 PM
Me, I don't trust people in positions like Fauci. It always seem like these people are always in the pockets of Big Pharma.
Pharmaceutical corporations have proven many times over they are more than willing to kill or let people die if it increases their bottom line. To them, $300 million in court settlements is a drop in the bucket if they can rake in BILLIONS.
When crap like that happens, the laws need changed to make the board members criminally liable. They wouldn't do it if it meant spending the rest of their lives in prison.

If hydrochloroquine and azithromycin actually work like other countries are touting, there's not much money in it for them since the patents have long expired, where-as developing a new drug would be a mega cash cow.

I don’t like Fauci either though I only just started paying attention to who he is. It’s always the same story with the medical establishment. They’ll say it hasn’t been studied but they won’t study it or they will try to discredit it but their methods seem underhanded. There seems to be numerous false studies and they can’t allow anything that’s not a high priced pharmaceutical to be accepted or used for anything
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 21, 2020, 09:41:32 PM
There's a big difference between the famous "100% cure rate" of a whopping 6 patients in a very preliminary study, vs proof that the drug will be safe and effective for the billions of people who might need it.

...developing a new drug would be a mega cash cow.

Maybe.  Here's an example of a new drug.

NPR, 3/21/20: Might The Experimental Drug Remdesivir Work Against COVID-19? (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/21/819099156/might-the-experimental-drug-remdesivir-work-against-covid-19)

Quote
...Remdesivir is an antiviral, intravenous medicine made by Gilead Sciences that's been around for years as an experimental compound, but was never approved by the Food and Drug Administration — or any other country's drug approval agency. It's now undergoing multiple clinical trials around the world to see if it's safe and effective against the coronavirus in people. ...

Remdesivir was one of the drugs being studied in 2014 as a potential Ebola treatment, but was sidelined in favor of other treatments and vaccines.

Since then, scientists have done lab studies to see how remdesivir performed against several other viruses, including two viruses in the same coronavirus family as the one that causes COVID-19 — the viruses behind SARS and MERS. They saw positive results in lab tests and animal studies, and think the drug interferes with viruses' ability to replicate.

That's why remdesivir was taken off Gilead's shelf as a potential COVID-19 treatment that's worth further testing.

"Obviously we are waiting for data, both in vitro and then in people to ensure that the drug actually works," Gilead CEO Daniel O'Day told investors in early February. "And it's important, just for everyone to keep that in mind, that this is still investigational — we are still waiting for more data to know." ...

Clinical trials for remdesivir as a COVID-19 treatment began in China in early February. Additional clinical studies weren't far behind — this time with study arms around the world, including in the United States.

In one Gilead-sponsored trial, researchers are measuring how remdesivir affects sick patients' oxygen levels. In another, they'll measure how many sick patients can leave the hospital within two weeks after starting treatment with remdesivir.

But it's too soon to see final study results. And without them, "we cannot really conclude whether it works or not," says Sheng Ding, dean of the school of pharmaceutical sciences at Tsinghua University. ...

At Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, [clinical trials] began this week, says epidemiologist Rajesh Gandhi, who is leading the hospital's COVID-19 treatment taskforce. ...

He says human studies will not only tell us whether the drug works, but for whom it works. For example, it's possible, he says that the drug would only be beneficial for patients with mild or moderate symptoms, but be harmful to those with severe disease. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 21, 2020, 09:59:04 PM
Well, if anyone is interested you can be part of a large scale study if you fit the exposure profile.  They are doing head to head comparisons between the major contenders.

Also, on radio they say Boston medical has begun using hydroxychloroquine and the anecdotal results are looking good.  So, it looks very strong.

https://www.mndaily.com/article/2020/03/n-umn-researchers-begin-three-covid-19-trials-test-malaria-drug (https://www.mndaily.com/article/2020/03/n-umn-researchers-begin-three-covid-19-trials-test-malaria-drug)
UMN researchers begin three COVID-19 trials, test malaria drug
This is the first round of clinical trials to use hydroxychloroquine as a possible COVID-19 prevention method.


University of Minnesota researchers opened a clinical trial Tuesday to test a malaria drug that will hopefully prevent COVID-19.

This is the first round of clinical trials to test the drug as a COVID-19 prevention method. Researchers are looking to test exposed healthcare workers and people who have come in household contact with someone who has the disease.

Participants in the randomized study will either receive the malaria medication called hydroxychloroquine or a vitamin placebo.

“We’re looking for up to 3,000 people to enroll, and that’s kind of a moving target,” said Caleb Skipper, a researcher behind the trial and a University infectious disease postdoctoral fellow. “Anyone in the U.S. with a U.S. address would be eligible to be screened for the trial.”

This is one of three clinical trials currently going on at the University. The other two trials will test a drug developed for Ebola called remdesivir and a high blood pressure drug called losartan against patients with COVID-19.

“Usually a phase 3 randomized trial takes months and months of time to set up … it was approved in one week,” he said.

Potential trial volunteers can determine their eligibility by answering screener questions about their exposure
....
The trials will be conducted using a telemedicine method, which means that patients will receive medication and care while the provider is not physically present.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on March 22, 2020, 12:12:57 AM
I don’t know that there have been studies but chloroquine has been used in Australia, southe korea and other countries. Presumably if a doctor gives a patient chloroquine and he does well then he is likely to give it to other patients and if results continue to be positive then without any other evidence he may continue down that road. Since chloroquine has been around for a long time, one would assume something about its safety is known but I am sure they are looking for some avenue to tell you it’s not safe. I wouldn’t expect anything different from these people

I don’t know why people act like the FDA should be trusted as the final word on everything. Apparently they don’t actually test flu vaccines adequately, they falsely tell us comfrey is dangerous, and the medical system seems to have given us the opioid epidemic. They promote chemotherapy which can’t be much better than tons of other alternatives except they seem to be good at brainwashing themselves and everyone else
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on March 22, 2020, 01:13:52 AM
Apparently there are numerous peer reviews out there that we never hear about because the media is selective in their reporting. Perhaps this is one of those

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220301145

..

Recently, Wang and colleagues (Wang et al., 2020) evaluated in vitro five FDA-approved drugs and two broad spectrum antivirals against a clinical isolate of SARS-CoV-2. One of their conclusions was that "chloroquine (is) highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro" and that its "safety track record suggests that it should be assessed in human patients suffering from the novel coronavirus disease". At least 16 different trials for SARS-CoV-2 already registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry

..

results from more than 100 patients have demonstrated that chloroquine phosphate is superior to the control treatment in inhibiting the exacerbation of pneumonia, improving lung imaging findings, promoting a virus negative conversion, and shortening the disease course".

This would represent the first successful use of chloroquine in humans for the treatment of an acute viral disease, and is undoubtedly excellent news, since this drug is cheap and widely
available.


================

https://poorrichardsnews.com/is-anti-malaria-drug-chloroquine-the-cure-for-coronavirus-peer-review-study/

https://thepoliticalinsider.com/bombshell-french-study-100-of-coronavirus-patients-cured-with-our-treatment/

 a well-controlled peer-reviewed study carried out by the most eminent infectious disease specialist in the world—Didier Raoult, MD, PhD—out of the south of France, in which he enrolled 40 patients, again, a well-controlled peer review study, that showed a 100 percent cure rate against coronavirus.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 22, 2020, 10:04:07 AM
I do hope that the Chloroquine works... it would certainly be a bright spot in this whole thing. In the meantime, there must a boatload of doctors trying it out, because one of the reports I saw was that it was basically out of stock in most locations.

I have heard that a pharmaceutical manufacturer was ramping up to make it in mass quantities within the next week or two, so if it does prove effective, at least we'll have it on hand. I think this was from a vid Jack Spirko put out...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 22, 2020, 10:37:33 AM
I do hope that the Chloroquine works... it would certainly be a bright spot in this whole thing. In the meantime, there must a boatload of doctors trying it out, because one of the reports I saw was that it was basically out of stock in most locations.

Yep.  Just a reminder thst Australian doctors reported same findings as French, Singaporan, and American doctors. They are moving to full scale, 50 hospital trials where all patients will have opportunity to participate. So it is being actively used across continents. 

There is also rush on to try all drugs which had effect on HIV.  All the scientists seem very confident that at least some will be effective against the HIV insertions present in the Wuhan virus.  Good news is all have been thoroughly tested for side effects and.maximum dosage so this makes things move much quicker.  Bayer is donating a lot of their inventory to the cause.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)
Coronavirus Australia: Queensland researchers find ‘cure’, want drug trial
Some patients who tested positive for coronavirus in Australia have already been treated with one of the drugs and “all did very, very well,” researchers say.


https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/bayer-preps-u-s-donation-malaria-med-chloroquine-to-help-covid-19-fight-report (https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/bayer-preps-u-s-donation-malaria-med-chloroquine-to-help-covid-19-fight-report)
Bayer donates millions of tablets of chloroquine to help in COVID-19 fight
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 22, 2020, 12:29:50 PM
Very encouraging.  On radio they were discussing interview with the Chief Medical Doctor of Washington's largest hospital network. Based on the trends they are seeing in house, they expect outbreak to peak in about 10 days.  Since Washington was area of first infection in US, this gives us rough empirically based timline.  In fact, California which was second area is now experiencing similar decline in rate (about 175 new per day) despite increase in tests being done.  Which suggests we could see peak across entire country in about 3 to 4 weeks.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/a-bit-of-good-news-for-a-change-washington-state-bends-curve-20200322 (https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/a-bit-of-good-news-for-a-change-washington-state-bends-curve-20200322)
A bit of good news for a change: Washington state bends the curve

A flicker of good news comes from the state with the earliest outbreak: Washington. The reported 216 cases on on Wed, 210 on Thu, 148 Fri and 269 Sat.

There are various quirks around testing (tests on Fri were much lower) but jumped Saturday. If you adjust for that, new cases have been steady at around 210 for four days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on March 22, 2020, 12:30:45 PM
It seems like the death rate for Italy is just under 1% and for the US it is 0.1% currently. I saw on the web what appeared to be a state of Vermont death rate for Spanish flu in 2018 or so which was about 0.5%

       deaths / cases

Italy 5,476 / 59,138 = 0.092

USA   396 / 38,167 = 0.010

Total  world wide 14,457 / 338,225 = 0.4%

(from world odometer)

from the web: The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S

 Thus unless coronavirus picks up a bit it seems to be similar in the US to seasonal flu from what I can tell at least thus far. Maybe it will pick up since the numbers are currently increasing but I am not sure how they got 3.4% ?

==============

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/what-is-coronavirus-and-what-is-the-mortality-rate

What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?
It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.


Deaths are highest in the elderly, with very low rates among younger people, although medical staff who treat patients and get exposed to a lot of virus are thought to be more at risk. But even among the over-80s, 90% will recover.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 22, 2020, 12:57:04 PM
from the web: The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S

Well another thing the Washington hospital network Chief Medical doctor was saying was that confirmed deaths from coronavirus was running neck to neck with seasonal flu there.  This suggested it was just above flu in fatality given shorter time.

That said, it isnt just deaths from disease itself that has to be taken into account.  The displacement of ICU beds by the disease causes deaths from other causes to increase.  This isnt covered in the numbers of dead from the disease itself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 22, 2020, 01:16:56 PM
Since chloroquine has been around for a long time, one would assume something about its safety is known but I am sure they are looking for some avenue to tell you it’s not safe.

Yeah, what's known about its safety is that it's NOT completely safe.

Bloomberg, 3/21/20: Nigeria Has Chloroquine Poisonings After Trump Praised Drug (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-21/nigeria-reports-chloroquine-poisonings-after-trump-praised-drug)

Quote
...Health officials are warning Nigerians against self-medicating after demand for the drug surged in Lagos, a city that’s home to 20 million people. Two people were hospitalized in Lagos for chloroquine overdoses, Oreoluwa Finnih, senior health assistant to the governor of Lagos, said in an interview. ...

While chloroquine is no longer used to treat malaria in Africa, some pharmacies still stock it for patients who are resistant to other anti-malaria drugs.

Hydroxychloroquine is known to be less toxic, but still not NON-toxic.

https://thepoliticalinsider.com/bombshell-french-study-100-of-coronavirus-patients-cured-with-our-treatment/

 a well-controlled peer-reviewed study carried out by the most eminent infectious disease specialist in the world—Didier Raoult, MD, PhD—out of the south of France, in which he enrolled 40 patients, again, a well-controlled peer review study, that showed a 100 percent cure rate against coronavirus.”

So says Gregory Rigano, who is a lawyer AFAIK and not a disease specialist.  This is the exact study that Fauci calls "anecdotal" and "not done in a controlled clinical trial", and he is a disease specialist.

We all want this treatment to work.  But it's not proven yet, and it's not anything like 100% safe.  It might be appropriate to try it on people who are facing death with no treatment, but it's not ready for the rest of us.  Meanwhile, we have GOT to "flatten the curve" and spread out the disease over time, to give researchers time to work, drug manufacturers time to produce the medications, and to not overload hospital resources.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 22, 2020, 01:51:19 PM
news for Greece.
A general Curfew has been issued till the 6th of April. (it will most definitely be expanded further, cos starting the 7th we have the Easter celebrations over here , where people travel at native homes)
All people moving around must have a vital reason for it.
There is a list of 6 vital reasons, and thanks got that they took consideration for exercising
Proof of will be done by special paperwork (employer issued) or by paper form or SMS declaration with an automated reply.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 22, 2020, 02:32:40 PM
There was an interview with Laura Ingraham interviewing a NY Dr., who said regardless of the fact the use of the Chloroquine is "off-label", they are indeed using it on cases in the NY hospitals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: surfivor on March 22, 2020, 02:53:02 PM
The FDA and others have put out inaccurate information before. It wouldn’t surprise me that they could find some people who died of something and try to get people to claim they died of whatever it is they need them to die from. I suspect there may be some contingent out there that does not want to see chloroquine used. It seems to be a drug that has been around for along time. Webmd and numerous websites have all kinds of information on its use, safety and side effects. All of a sudden now it needs to be re-evaluated and I would expect them to decide it’s not safe if that’s what suits them

Maybe also some people took more than they were supposed to. There seems to be no real details on the two people who they said died

The other thing that doesn’t make a lot of sense is that Nigeria has only had 30 cases of the virus and no deaths. Africa is the place where AIDS stats are innacurate and  Nigeria is also home to numerous scam artists
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 22, 2020, 03:28:36 PM
Jack's recent episode is amazing.  This includes his points on Choloquine:

The importance of therapy awareness

Many treatments are available and are or soon will be available via compassionate use
Choloquine and Zinc Packs are working, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise
Choloquine is being made in the millions of doses right now, your doctor can prescribe it if you need it
We have plenty of data as to what not using it looks like, we don’t need a “control group” we have a massive one
There is no question it works, the only questions are really how well, and what is the best way to use it
The press is on a witch hunt here, trust me they are going to look really bad in the end for it
I don’t know a lot about the other therapies yet but plan to know more for you on them by Monday
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 22, 2020, 03:30:26 PM
It seems like the death rate for Italy is just under 1% and for the US it is 0.1% currently. I saw on the web what appeared to be a state of Vermont death rate for Spanish flu in 2018 or so which was about 0.5%

       deaths / cases

Italy 5,476 / 59,138 = 0.092

USA   396 / 38,167 = 0.010

Total  world wide 14,457 / 338,225 = 0.4%

(from world odometer)

from the web: The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S

 Thus unless coronavirus picks up a bit it seems to be similar in the US to seasonal flu from what I can tell at least thus far. Maybe it will pick up since the numbers are currently increasing but I am not sure how they got 3.4% ?

you read your math wrong. it's 9% in italy by your numbers.

worldwide as of this minute
coronavirus cases
335,366
worldwide deaths
14,611
= 3.4% death rate averaged

china
81,054   total cases as of this minute
3,261 deaths
= 4.0% death rate

italy
59,138 total cases as of this minute
5,476 deaths
= 9.2% death rate

usa
32,356 total cases as of this minute
414 deaths
= 1.2% death rate, but the usa is just getting started. the usa had over 8,000 new cases so far today, many of todays cases will die. we are 7 to 10 days -or less - behind italy and spain

spain
28,603   total cases as of this minute
1,756 deaths as of this minute
= 6.1 death rate

uk = 4.9 death rate

iran = 7.7%

france 4.2%

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 22, 2020, 05:32:30 PM
i just ran the numbers for the current fatality stats for several states

california 2.1%
conneticut 2.1%
kansas 3.6%
kentucky 3%
missouri 3.3%
south dakota 7.1%
washington 5.3% death rate
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 22, 2020, 05:41:15 PM
I saw on the web what appeared to be a state of Vermont death rate for Spanish flu in 2018 or so which was about 0.5%

there was no spanish flu in 2018. it burnt itself out in 1920.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 22, 2020, 06:54:35 PM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/03/22/new-york-to-begin-clinical-trials-for-coronavirus-treatment-tuesday-cuomo-says/amp/ (https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/03/22/new-york-to-begin-clinical-trials-for-coronavirus-treatment-tuesday-cuomo-says/amp/)
New York To Begin Clinical Trials For Coronavirus Treatment Tuesday, Cuomo Says

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Sunday that drug trials to test coronavirus treatments will begin in the state Tuesday, after President Trump on Thursday said the Food and Drug Administration approved one of the drugs for clinical trials, as New York becomes the epicenter for the pandemic in the U.S.
...
Cuomo said 750,000 doses of chloroquine, 70,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine and 10,000 doses of Zithromax were acquired by New York state for the trial.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 22, 2020, 07:44:58 PM
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49689227152_8fe99241fd_b.jpg)  (https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49689227117_a66ef5514c_b.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 23, 2020, 12:42:40 PM
Yep, he is right.  The rate of cases is always greatest just before the flattening.  You have to look at both first and second derivatives in trends.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate (https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate)
Coronavirus outbreak may be over sooner than you think

Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.
...
Although the number of daily deaths had increased, the rate of that increase had begun to ease off. Essentially, although the car was still speeding up, it was not accelerating as rapidly as before.

“This suggests that the rate of increase in number of the deaths will slow down even more over the next week,” Levitt wrote in a report he sent to friends Feb. 1 that was widely shared on Chinese social media. And soon, he predicted, the number of deaths would be decreasing every day.

Three weeks later, Levitt told the China Daily News that the virus’ rate of growth had peaked. He predicted that the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China would end up around 80,000, with about 3,250 deaths.

This forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate: As of March 16, China had counted a total of 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths — in a nation of nearly 1.4 billion people where roughly 10 million die every year. The number of newly diagnosed patients has dropped to around 25 a day, with no cases of community spread reported since Wednesday.
...
Now Levitt, who received the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry for developing complex models of chemical systems, is seeing similar turning points in other nations, even ones that did not instill the draconian isolation measures that China did.

He analyzed 78 countries with more than 50 reported cases of COVID-19 every day and sees “signs of recovery.” He’s not looking at cumulative cases, but the number of new cases every day — and the percentage growth in that number from one day to the next.
...
The trajectory of deaths backs up his findings, he said. So do data from outbreaks in confined environments, such as the one on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Out of 3,711 people on board, 712 were infected and eight died. In his view, this unintended experiment in coronavirus spread will help researchers estimate the number of fatalities that would occur in a fully infected population.
...
But he also blames the media for causing unnecessary panic by focusing on the relentless increase in the cumulative number of cases and spotlighting celebrities who contract the virus. By contrast, the flu has sickened 36 million Americans since September and killed an estimated 22,000, according to the CDC, but those deaths are largely unreported.

He fears the public health measures that have shut down large swaths of the economy could cause their own health catastrophe, as lost jobs lead to poverty and hopelessness. Time and again, researchers have seen that suicide rates go up when the economy spirals down.

The virus can grow exponentially only when it is undetected and no one is acting to control it, Levitt said.
...
The goal needs to be better early detection — not just through testing but perhaps with body temperature surveillance, which China is implementing — and immediate social isolation.
...
While the COVID-19 fatality rate appears to be significantly higher than that of the flu, Levitt says it is quite simply put, “not the end of the world.”

Based on the experience of the Diamond Princess, he estimates that being exposed to the new coronavirus doubles a person’s risk of dying in the next two months. However, most people have an extremely low risk of death in a two-month period, and that risk remains extremely low even when doubled.

“The real situation is not as nearly as terrible as they make it out to be,” he said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 23, 2020, 01:06:49 PM
the second wave of the spanish flu in 1918 was worse than the first wave. don't think for a second that covid19 will only have one wave
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 23, 2020, 01:22:01 PM
the second wave of the spanish flu in 1918 was worse than the first wave. don't think for a second that covid19 will only have one wave

Truth.

It also had a third wave that killed as many as the first.  Hong Kong is seeing a resurgence in cases already because they let their guard down.

We’re not out of woods until we have a solid vaccine.  Don’t let all the speculative happy crap about malaria drugs get in the way of adhering to the basic public health measures that are vital to flattening the curve right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 23, 2020, 01:59:40 PM
My sister and I had a fun conversation because we both believe that if we're getting the truth this thing is way more widespread and we likely already had it.

But we got stuck on a stumbling block: What's the "all clear" metric? And is it variable? I'm still going to the grocer; I'll never take another cruise. And I'm on one level, the lady in front of me wearing a surgical mask and squirting Purell like it was going out of style is on a different level. And the both of us are a little different than the 20 somethings still trying to have random sex on spring break.

And just what does "all clear" look like? I'm of the belief that Tyler Cowen had it right on Econtalk. When we open the floodgates it's going to be wild parties with body shots and very promiscuous sex. We don't talk about it in polite society but I'm sure the sex work industry has been hit and once us repressed Americans get back to our Jaegerbombs and squirt gun night at the strip club it's going to be a free-for-all.

I'm doing a lot of thinking about what coming out of this looks like. I'm not unusual in that I like to go to the theater and I like going to fancy restaurants. I like losing to my friends at darts and pool (I'm awful at both but I have fun). How long can you bottle that up?

Lots of thoughts about what getting past corona looks like.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 23, 2020, 03:31:08 PM
https://apnews.com/0a69c921eb603e6a85fd5c2c490d66a9 (https://apnews.com/0a69c921eb603e6a85fd5c2c490d66a9)
Italy records smaller increase in virus cases for 2nd day

Italy has recorded a smaller day-to-day increase in new coronavirus cases for the second straight day, officials said while cautioning it was too soon to know if the worst is behind the country with the world’s second-biggest caseload.

Data released by Italy’s Civil Protection agency on Monday showed 4,789 new cases, nearly 700 fewer than the day-to-day increase of 5,560 new cases reported Sunday.

The number of deaths also did not rise by as much. There were just over 600 more virus-related registered in Italy on Monday compared to 651 on Sunday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 23, 2020, 04:10:12 PM
Dr. Colyer is a practicing physician and chairman of the National Advisory Commission on Rural Health and Dr. Hinthorn is director of the Division of Infectious Disease at the University of Kansas Medical Center.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/these-drugs-are-helping-our-coronavirus-patients-11584899438 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/these-drugs-are-helping-our-coronavirus-patients-11584899438)
These Drugs Are Helping Our Coronavirus Patients
The evidence is preliminary on repurposing two treatments. But we don’t have the luxury of time.


We had been using the protocol outlined in the research from China, but we’ve switched to the combination prescribed in the French study. Our patients appear to be showing fewer symptoms.

Our experience suggests that hydroxychloroquine, with or without a Z-Pak, should be a first-line treatment. Unfortunately, there is already a shortage of hydroxychloroquine. The federal government should immediately contract with generic manufacturers to ramp up production. Any stockpiles should be released.

As a matter of clinical practice, hydroxychloroquine should be given early to patients who test positive, and perhaps if Covid-19 is presumed—in the case of ill household contacts, for instance. It may be especially useful to treat mild cases and young patients, which would significantly decrease viral transmission and, as they say, “flatten the curve.”

Emergency rooms run the risk of one patient exposing a dozen nurses and doctors. Instead of exposed health workers getting placed on 14-day quarantine, they could receive hydroxychloroquine for five days, then test for the virus. That would allow health-care workers to return to work sooner if they test negative
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 23, 2020, 07:38:39 PM
More trials details from China.

https://medicaldialogues.in/amp/pulmonology/news/breakthrough-chloroquine-phosphate-shows-efficacy-in-covid-19-associated-pneumonia-63549 (https://medicaldialogues.in/amp/pulmonology/news/breakthrough-chloroquine-phosphate-shows-efficacy-in-covid-19-associated-pneumonia-63549)
Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate shows efficacy in COVID-19 associated pneumonia
According to a letter published in BioScience Trends, Chloroquine has shown apparent efficacy in the treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies.


Thus far, results from more than 100 patients have demonstrated that chloroquine phosphate is superior to the control treatment in inhibiting the exacerbation of pneumonia, improving lung imaging findings, promoting a virus-negative conversion, and shortening the disease course according to the news briefing. Severe adverse reactions to chloroquine phosphate were not noted in the aforementioned patients. Given these findings, a conference was held on February 15, 2020; participants including experts from government and regulatory authorities and organizers of clinical trials reached an agreement that chloroquine phosphate has potent activity against COVID-19.
...
In light of the urgent clinical demand, chloroquine phosphate is recommended to treat COVID-19 associated pneumonia in larger populations in the future.

The drug is recommended to be included in the next version of the Guidelines for the Prevention, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Pneumonia Caused by COVID-19 issued by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China for treatment of COVID-19 infection in larger populations in the future.

In addition to this, a new cellular drug called CAStem supposed to cure COVID-19 was created, and it has already made major progress in the experiment about the treatment of the severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) previously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 23, 2020, 09:34:00 PM
Just looking at some posts on other forums, I predict that in a few days we'll see massive promotion of "natural" quinine plus zinc as a COVID-19 cure.

Close.  Instead people are slamming down aquarium cleaner because it contains chloroquine phosphate.  I am not kidding.  They have no understanding of formulations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 23, 2020, 11:07:39 PM
Another 2400 US cases have been added since this screen shot from 4 hours ago, mostly from NY.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49692846111_d4677593cd_b.jpg)  (https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49693148832_443ed06b46_b.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 24, 2020, 06:10:45 AM
Close.  Instead people are slamming down aquarium cleaner because it contains chloroquine phosphate.  I am not kidding.  They have no understanding of formulations.

I saw this.  And I wonder if you can be eligible for Darwin awards if you are already past the age of reproduction?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Redman on March 24, 2020, 06:18:04 AM
Close.  Instead people are slamming down aquarium cleaner because it contains chloroquine phosphate.  I am not kidding.  They have no understanding of formulations.

Arizona man dies, wife in critical condition.

https://abc13.com/health/man-dies-after-ingesting-fish-tank-additive-to-prevent-covid-19/6045150/
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 24, 2020, 07:08:22 AM
MODS: Can we get a separate sub-category for all COVID-related threads?  It would make it easier to find the one I am looking for.

http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=64761.0
http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=64901.0
http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=64870.0
http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=64817.0
http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=64853.0


I am sure there are more...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 24, 2020, 08:45:50 AM
Is anyone else annoyed by the instructions we receive on news programs vis-a-vis masks?

I watched the Dr. on Fox and Friends this morning basically tell us that masks are not needed except for healthcare workers (who need all the N95 supply available) or symptomatic people who are at a hospital or clinic.

I get it that they are trying to stop people from hoarding all the N95 masks when we have such a shortage, but we have seen report after report telling us that asymptomatic people can unknowingly infect others when they are infected, but not yet showing any symptoms.

It seems to me that wearing a basic surgical mask, or even a homemade one by such a person would help reduce the spread. They seem to be saying many different things, which is not helpful.

One the one hand, they want us all to stay home to slow the infection.
On the other hand, they tell us we don't need to mask if we go out to shop, etc., because we can't spread the disease if we are asymptomatic.
And, finally, they are criticizing the movement to make masks at home because they are not as effective as an N95 mask -- at the same time we hear of people working in neonatal units being forced to fashion bandanas to wear as masks.

I just find it really irritating, because I know that so many people get their information only from the big network news people. I think that many folks are saying "If asymptomatic people cannot spread the virus, then WHY are we staying home?" This disconnect may be partly why so many people don't believe this stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 24, 2020, 10:51:32 AM
some thing over here...easy to understand, one lie leads to another.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 24, 2020, 11:30:04 AM
Is anyone else annoyed by the instructions we receive on news programs vis-a-vis masks?

I watched the Dr. on Fox and Friends this morning basically tell us that masks are not needed except for healthcare workers (who need all the N95 supply available) or symptomatic people who are at a hospital or clinic.

maybe dont watch that channel
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 24, 2020, 12:41:48 PM
maybe dont watch that channel

 :rofl:
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 24, 2020, 01:29:27 PM
spain
28,603   total cases as of this minute
1,756 deaths as of this minute
= 6.1 death rate

italy
59,138 total cases as of this minute
5,476 deaths
= 9.2% death rate

spain's fatality rate is now up to 6.7% today

italy's fatality rate is now up to 9.8%
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 24, 2020, 02:19:16 PM
maybe dont watch that channel

haha... you are funny.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 25, 2020, 08:30:08 AM
spain's fatality rate is now up to 6.7% today

italy's fatality rate is now up to 9.8%

usa's fatality rate 1.2%

worldwide deaths 3.4% death rate averaged
 

24 hrs later:

spains fatality rate is now 10.1%
italys fatality rate is now 7.2%
usa 1.4%

worldwide fatality rate is now 4.4%
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 25, 2020, 10:00:24 AM
...Gov. Cuomo screaming about the insignificant number of ventilators (400, I think he said) being sent to NY... my thought when he said the number he wanted to have was (was it 40,000?) that he doesn't have the personnel to even manage the number of ventilators he wants to receive or anyplace to put them.

It is a terrible situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Chemsoldier on March 25, 2020, 10:11:43 AM
...Gov. Cuomo screaming about the insignificant number of ventilators (400, I think he said) being sent to NY... my thought when he said the number he wanted to have was (was it 40,000?) that he doesn't have the personnel to even manage the number of ventilators he wants to receive or anyplace to put them.

It is a terrible situation.
I dont like him, but he does seem to be doing what localized leaders do, fight for resources for his area.  In this case it is the hardest hit.  Obviously it would be irresponsible to give him everything he wants if it will uncover other parts of the country. 

Army Combat Surgical Hospitals are preparing to deploy to Washington and NY.  Bad luck on USNS Comfort being in maintenance refit at this time.  The Defense Support to Civil Authorities (DSCA) deployments will start ramping up now.  We can also probably expect cities with military bases (Fayetteville, Leavenworth, Colorado Springs, etc) will see the military treatment facilities of those bases integrate into the medical enterprise of those cities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: IKN on March 25, 2020, 10:32:18 AM
I saw the report this morning. He received 4,000 ventilators and throwing a tantrum saying he needs 30,000 of them.
Yes, NY is the hardest hit area so far, but I get the impression he thinks NY deserves it more than the rest of the country.
Everything for me and nothing for thee. I don't suspect they have the room or personnel for 30,000 ventilators.

Guess we'll have to wait and see if he's willing to share once it tapers off in NY and hits harder elsewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 25, 2020, 10:56:32 AM
I saw the report this morning. He received 4,000 ventilators and throwing a tantrum saying he needs 30,000 of them.
Yes, NY is the hardest hit area so far, but I get the impression he thinks NY deserves it more than the rest of the country.
Everything for me and nothing for thee. I don't suspect they have the room or personnel for 30,000 ventilators.

Guess we'll have to wait and see if he's willing to share once it tapers off in NY and hits harder elsewhere.

NYC-ers always think they deserve everything better/more than the rest of the state or country.  They are so insular in their little islands and have no idea about the rest of the country.   Upstate hates them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 25, 2020, 12:09:58 PM
about 20% of those infected with covid19 will require being on ventilators.

cuomo said sunday morning that an estimated 50% to 80% of residents will likely get the coronavirus over the course of the pandemic.

new york state has a population of 19,453,561

50% of the population is 9,000,000

20% of 9,000,000 is 1,945,356 who will need a ventilator. even spreading that out over 4 months is 486,339 people on ventilators each month.

Or 16,211 people needing a ventilator every day. that is if only 50% of the population has it. it could be 80%.

if your father, mother, child, yourself needed one, is 4,000 ventilators really too much to ask for? is 10,000? 20,000. will you be pleading, screaming, bribing for your loved one if they need one and there is not one available?

do you want to choose which of the 12,000 people don't get one? do you want to choose which of the 4,000 that do?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 25, 2020, 12:25:58 PM
Guess we'll have to wait and see if he's willing to share once it tapers off in NY and hits harder elsewhere.

yesterday, cuomo said that if the federal government does provide ventilators, cuomo vowed to pass on the medical equipment to other states.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 25, 2020, 12:29:39 PM
I get it... the numbers are grim. This situation will be moving around the country as it progresses. If 100% of available ventilators go to NY now, then in 1-2 weeks, when another state has a spike, those ventilators will all still be in use in NY and not available to share with anyone else -- even if they were so inclined.

This is why we self-quarantine and prepare for a long stay at home and encourage all our family, friends, acquaintances, etc. to do the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 25, 2020, 12:43:18 PM
I get it.

This is why we self-quarantine and prepare for a long stay at home and encourage all our family, friends, acquaintances, etc. to do the same.

it is going to be very ugly..... numbers are grim.  new york is the "canary in the coal mine" for what is to come.

i agree with you about people neefing to stay home. the reason some states are under lockdown, is people are stupid and are not listening. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Adam Campbell on March 25, 2020, 01:04:20 PM
We have 2 kinds of people right now.

Everyone is worried about what is happening right now and NOBODY really knows what is going on, because frankly you can't really trust ANY source of information completely.

We have people who are more afraid of the virus than the government response.

We have people who are more afraid of the government response than the virus.

I am siding with the people who are more afraid of the government response than the virus and keeping my mind open to change as new information comes around, while also being smart enough not to expose ourselves too much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 25, 2020, 03:21:11 PM
I'm hearing from people wanting to donate masks in their storage for use by their local medical systems.  Good on all of you that are doing that!

Today I received this letter from my professional society outlining the various masks, respirators, and supplied air systems commonly used in non-medical industry that meet or exceed the N95 standard.  This is obviously geared toward large corporations that could be sitting on stockpiles of PPE that could be donated, but there's lots of us out there who stock similar items for use in our home shops.

AIHA/ACOEM Joint Letter on Donation of Surplus Masks and Respirators for Health Care Workers (http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?m=1102647720683&ca=016d72bf-3833-488a-bec3-5c965c82b6b2)

Quote
WHAT IS NEEDED
In the news, the N95 mask seems to be all that is talked about; however, there are several others that can save lives during this crisis: P95, N99, N100, P95, P99, or P100.
 
To combat the current shortage, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is now allowing the use of industrial-style filtering facepiece respirators. Many facilities have stock of N-95 and P-95 respirators that are distributed as voluntary comfort masks. Facilities prepared to meet requirements of the OSHA Silica Standard may have extra industrial style respirators. These masks will provide a life-saving barrier from COVID-19 for the workers battling this deadly pandemic.
 
On March 14, 2020, OSHA issued a directive that provides guidance on expanding the supply available to health care providers: "respirators of equal or higher protection, such as N99 or N100 filtering facepieces, reusable elastomeric respirators with appropriate filters or cartridges, or powered air purifying respirators (PAPR)" should be donated. (https://www.osha.gov/memos/2020-03-14/temporary-enforcement-guidance-healthcare-respiratory-protection-annual-fit) Also, respirators marked P95, P99 and P100 meet this standard of protection ("P" simply means they are oil proof).  https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/topics/respirators/disp_part/p99list1.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 25, 2020, 04:19:52 PM
At long last the math people showed up. Oxford University has a statistical model whereby half of all Britons have already had COVID-19. Yeah, you're likely one of the many who had a low symptom cold and after a week on the couch got back on your feet.

https://reason.com/2020/03/25/half-of-united-kingdom-already-infected-with-coronavirus-says-oxford-model/

The modeling is telling in that the morbidity has been way overstated and the widespread infection has been way understated. I'm not telling you to run out and kiss a stranger like it's 1945 but maybe we can pump the brakes and live more normal lives. A lot of unknowns are being unearthed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 25, 2020, 04:26:43 PM
At long last the math people showed up. Oxford University has a statistical model whereby half of all Britons have already had COVID-19. Yeah, you're likely one of the many who had a low symptom cold and after a week on the couch got back on your feet.

https://reason.com/2020/03/25/half-of-united-kingdom-already-infected-with-coronavirus-says-oxford-model/

The modeling is telling in that the morbidity has been way overstated and the widespread infection has been way understated. I'm not telling you to run out and kiss a stranger like it's 1945 but maybe we can pump the brakes and live more normal lives. A lot of unknowns are being unearthed.


But without widespread antibody testing to confirm prior infection with, and current immunity from, COVID-19 it changes nothing in terms of the need for social distancing.  Unfortunately.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: David in MN on March 25, 2020, 04:54:08 PM

But without widespread antibody testing to confirm prior infection with, and current immunity from, COVID-19 it changes nothing in terms of the need for social distancing.  Unfortunately.

No, but the modeling is a least a bright spot. It's kind of been my gut feel for a while and as we roll out with testing and realize that maybe a lot of us had this in December (as I suspect I did) the death rate will fall off and people will get back to normalcy.


I don't want to be too wrong on either side but hearing the statisticians weigh in that we've overblown the risk is a remarkably good thing. It's a difficult game as the medical world is overwhelmed but the data people can offer a more nuanced view.

We're all trying to figure out what makes sense and some modeling that tells us we're doing far better than we thought doesn't suck. I'm on team people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 25, 2020, 05:13:43 PM
No, but the modeling is a least a bright spot. It's kind of been my gut feel for a while and as we roll out with testing and realize that maybe a lot of us had this in December (as I suspect I did) the death rate will fall off and people will get back to normalcy.


based on symptoms, plus a mild relapse after a week of "feeling well", I think my kids had it in mid february.  Just saying
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 25, 2020, 06:15:27 PM
Of course it varies over time and by location and conditions.  In the US, the earliest cases showed a 1.7 day doubling rate.  This is because a lot were from infected people entering the country in addition to local transmission and this convolution distorted the rate.  This has dropped over time and latest data shows a 2.9 day doubling rate.  Right now, most experts expect it to quickly (within about a week) slow to a 5+ day doubling rate based on actions taken.  The worst case scenarios are reportedly now being calculated using 4 day.  The media is still pushing for as aggressive numbers as possible...gotta feed those click monster.

Washington is now at a six and a half day doubling rate.  New York is breaking 4.  Politicians are starting to take notice and beginning to back off the "we're all going to die" rhetoric and having more realistic discussions.

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/25/new-york-andrew-cuomo-coronavirus-cases (https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/25/new-york-andrew-cuomo-coronavirus-cases)
New York: Cuomo says early signs show coronavirus distancing may be working

New York’s governor, Andrew Cuomo, has said officials are seeing very early signs that physical distancing may be starting to slow the spread of coronavirus in his state
...
 hospitalizations were projected to double every 4.7 days on Tuesday, compared with Monday, when the number was doubling every 3.4 days, and Sunday, when the figure was every two days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 25, 2020, 06:22:42 PM
based on symptoms, plus a mild relapse after a week of "feeling well", I think my kids had it in mid february.  Just saying

Hard to say.  But we have tested 421 thousand people showing symptoms and 357 thousand of those were negative.  This suggests that it is only a small portion of population infected.  So much more likely to be tge 2nd wave of seasonal influenza which was so mild for some they thought it was just a mild cold.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: IKN on March 25, 2020, 06:42:22 PM
if your father, mother, child, yourself needed one, is 4,000 ventilators really too much to ask for? is 10,000? 20,000. will you be pleading, screaming, bribing for your loved one if they need one and there is not one available?

do you want to choose which of the 12,000 people don't get one? do you want to choose which of the 4,000 that do?

No one wants to make that decision, but at some point a doctor or medical worker may have to. It's happening in other countries and can happen here as well.
At some point logistics comes into play. Even if they could get a million ventilators, I doubt they have the space to put them or the people to operate and monitor them.
In some cases, it eventually doesn't matter as people on ventilators have died.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 25, 2020, 07:14:39 PM
No one wants to make that decision, but at some point a doctor or medical worker may have to. It's happening in other countries and can happen here as well.
At some point logistics comes into play. Even if they could get a million ventilators, I doubt they have the space to put them or the people to operate and monitor them.
In some cases, it eventually doesn't matter as people on ventilators have died.

Good points.  New York currently has ~2,800 coronavirus patients in hospitals with only about 500 on ventilators.  And the rate in additional cases is dropping quickly.    They have so many ventilators they are having to stockpile them as the hospitals dont want to take them.   And, of course, it is possible to put two and even four patients on one ventilator should worse case scenario happen.

The craziest thing is Elon Musk just picked up his phone and ordered 1,250 of them for immediate delivery. He just donated them to any hospital who needs them. The bureaucrats werent even trying to locate let alone acquire them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 25, 2020, 09:01:07 PM
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49699419821_bd2eba5ba2_b.jpg)

With the same number of new cases as we had today, the US will have more cases than China by tomorrow.  Hard to tell if Italy will get there ahead of us, but we'll definitely be #1 by the weekend.

Notice that the US has 3 deaths per million population, compared to S. Korea and China's 2 per mil.

Spain looks like it's on Italy's trajectory.  Unfortunately, we're going to wind up closer to those two countries than we will to China.


(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49698889158_353118cd79_b.jpg)

Louisiana is really blowing up, with as many deaths as California and only 60% as many cases.  Mardi Gras' paying some big fat dividends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 25, 2020, 09:12:12 PM
Masks are coming

Quote
Apple CEO Tim Cook announced that the company has sourced and will be donating 10 million face masks. The number is a sizable increase over the two million reported last week, and a hefty bump over the nine million figure Vice President Mike Pence announced during last night’s White House press conference.

Quote
Apple is joining fellow tech companies in donating masks amid a national shortage as COVID-19 takes an increasing toll on the U.S. population. Many of the donated masks have been stockpiled, in order to adhere to California Occupational Safety and Health Standards put into action following last year’s devastating wildfires.

Other companies, like Ford, have transformed production facilities to create additional masks.

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/25/apple-will-donate-10m-face-masks-to-healthcare-workers/

comment from where I got the link, so no source but I trust it


Quote
I'm trying to figure this out as well.. here's what I've gathered so far...

- Some came from the california wildfire stockpiles
- Some came from the H1N1 stockpiles that George W Bush established (and Obama basically canceled)... I THINK Apple bought these up to use in their manufacturing clean rooms.. But I'm not certain...
- A few are being sourced from small suppliers in europe
- Some are being manufactured by places that Apple normally uses to make electronics -- they are re-tooling their assembly lines to make masks instead of electronics.

Apple, apparently, is footing the bill for all of the above.. though it's not clear to me why california wildfire stockpiles wouldn't ALREADY be in the hands of hospitals. I'm still digging.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 25, 2020, 09:27:22 PM
demographics in my area so far ( California, greater San Francisco Bay area).  Note that it is not all old people  -

Twenty-five people have tested positive for COVID-19 in -- County as of Wednesday morning. No deaths have been reported.

The demographics of those who have tested positive are as follows:

    Male: 14
    Female: 11
    Age 18-64: 21
    Age 65+ 4

we had our first reported case March 6 or 7th, a cruise ship passenger
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 25, 2020, 09:33:06 PM
Good points.  New York currently has ~2,800 coronavirus patients in hospitals with only about 500 on ventilators.  And the rate in additional cases is dropping quickly.    They have so many ventilators they are having to stockpile them as the hospitals dont want to take them.   And, of course, it is possible to put two and even four patients on one ventilator should worse case scenario happen.

where did you get your numbers?

there was an increase over yesterday in detected coronavirus cases. hopefully, grouping things by region helps even out disparities in testing rates.

South: +32%
Northeast (excluding NY): +30%
Midwest: +27%
West (excluding CA & WA): +23%
New York: +20%
California: +20%
Washington: +11%

doctors are gingerly testing to put more than patient on a machine, which is dangerous
https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-ventilator-shortage-may-force-sharing-but-its-risky-2020-3

what hospitals are declining ventilator machines?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 25, 2020, 09:45:51 PM
The donations, big and small, are rolling in from everywhere.  The Washington National Cathedral found 5.000 respirators in a crypt that were never used from bird flu epidemic and donated them to hospitals.  Tesla sent 50,000 from their stock to seattle doctors,  3M just shipped another half a million to New York and is producing over a million per day in US now.  Quilters, taylors, etc. have produced so many procedure masks that they have been asking them to stop producing.

With three hospitals under construction in New York, it is all about lining up volunteer medical staff.  The restrictions barring cross state practice have been lifted so vokunteers can come from all over. 

Never count out the US private sector!
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 25, 2020, 10:21:41 PM
where did you get your numbers?

there was an increase over yesterday in detected coronavirus cases. hopefully, grouping things by region helps even out disparities in testing rates.

South: +32%
Northeast (excluding NY): +30%
Midwest: +27%
West (excluding CA & WA): +23%
New York: +20%
California: +20%
Washington: +11%

doctors are gingerly testing to put more than patient on a machine, which is dangerous
https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-ventilator-shortage-may-force-sharing-but-its-risky-2020-3

what hospitals are declining ventilator machines?

If you want to figure out doubling rates, you can use natural logs.  Just take ln(2)/ln(1+% increase per day). For example, for washington using your figure it would be ln(2)/ln(1.11) = 6.64 days.  But the official number based on 4 ET report is actually 6.55... ln(2)/ln(2469/2221) = 6.55. 

The governor of New York reported on ventilators in his press conference today along with the number of current patients. He said they have 4,000 normally in hospitals, are receiving 4,000 from feds, and got 7,000 through normal channels.  The new 11,000 hasnt been deployed as no hospital is currently requested them.  Instead they are being put in a state stockpile.  Some doctors are trialing the split which has been proven by others.  So their worst case scenario of needing 30k is covered (4k+4k+7k)*2= 30k.  But again, they currently only have 500 people who need them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 26, 2020, 07:03:21 AM
Kinsa Health Weather Map showing promising decline in fevers across US.

https://healthweather.us/ (https://healthweather.us/)

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: IKN on March 26, 2020, 07:16:29 AM
Have a couple questions, although the second being kind of an observation as well.

1. My wife got a Facebook report about some young girl here that has symptoms, but was told the test wasn't covered under the State aide program and it would cost $1500 to have her tested. Anyone else hear of anything like that ?

2. Every day I hear about all the new confirmed cases and deaths, but I see nothing being put out about recovery rates. Any sources of info out there putting out all the statistics ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 26, 2020, 08:52:49 AM
Worldometers.info, the source of the tables I screenshot and posted above, is tracking recovery numbers.

You can also calculate it:

Recovered Cases = Total Cases - Total Deaths - Active Cases
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: fritz_monroe on March 26, 2020, 09:29:49 AM
Here's another tracking website that uses Bing for the tracking.

https://www.bing.com/covid

Looks like we are on track to drastically fly by China in number of confirmed cases.  Of course there is better testing now than when it started in China, but still...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 26, 2020, 09:51:02 AM
spains fatality rate is now 10.1%
italys fatality rate is now 7.2%
usa 1.4%

worldwide fatality rate is now 4.4%

not even 24 hrs later
italys fatality rate is now 10%
usa 1.5%

worldwide fatality rate is almost 4.5%
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 26, 2020, 10:19:06 AM
Here's another tracking website that uses Bing for the tracking.

https://www.bing.com/covid

Looks like we are on track to drastically fly by China in number of confirmed cases.  Of course there is better testing now than when it started in China, but still...

Maybe... although I'm not sure I trust China's reported numbers. At the same time we are seeing very low numbers of overall cases and deaths reported, there are apparently as many as 21 million Chinese cellphone accounts that have disappeared. I think this was reported on either peakprosperity.com or freedomain.com (can't recall which).

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 26, 2020, 10:49:57 AM
Maybe... although I'm not sure I trust China's reported numbers. At the same time we are seeing very low numbers of overall cases and deaths reported, there are apparently as many as 21 million Chinese cellphone accounts that have disappeared. I think this was reported on either peakprosperity.com or freedomain.com (can't recall which).

do not trust China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Chemsoldier on March 26, 2020, 12:15:44 PM
Rule 1: China lies
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 26, 2020, 03:34:59 PM
With the same number of new cases as we had today, the US will have more cases than China by tomorrow.  Hard to tell if Italy will get there ahead of us, but we'll definitely be #1 by the weekend.

We're #1. 

The US surpassed 82,000 cases and leapfrogged over both Italy and China to take the lead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Chemsoldier on March 26, 2020, 03:58:53 PM
We're #1. 

The US surpassed 82,000 cases and leapfrogged over both Italy and China to take the lead.

We're number 1! We're number 1!

Though China lies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: fritz_monroe on March 26, 2020, 04:22:25 PM
Though China lies.
Plus they didn't test as many people as we have been. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 26, 2020, 04:25:11 PM
Greek Outlook

Seems we are doing quite good. Diagnosed cases double every 6 days, and the curve is better than most (https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F1553ee10-6fab-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260)

And of tomorrow, chloroquine will be available in mass quantities to the health system. About 2.5 pills per each person.

General Outlook

As the disease progress we are learning more about the symptoms
Loss of Smell and loss of Appetite is observed
Diminished Blood oxygenation (pulse oxymeters are practically sold out)
Seems that the virus does not only affects the lungs but also degardes the hear.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 26, 2020, 04:39:46 PM
As the disease progress we are learning more about the symptoms
Loss of Smell and loss of Appetite is observed
Diminished Blood oxygenation (pulse oxymeters are practically sold out)
Seems that the virus does not only affects the lungs but also degardes the hear.

weird symptoms... are we sure this was not bio-engineered?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 26, 2020, 05:14:24 PM
weird symptoms... are we sure this was not bio-engineered?

MODERATOR NOTE: To keep the focus of this thread on current news, let's put discussions of the virus origin in the existing topic:
Virus accidentally released from lab ? (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=64761.0)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 26, 2020, 05:19:00 PM
BTW i forgot to add that
- the word is that the virus attaches on receptors that the older you are, the more you have.
- heard from a prominent scientist that the virus creates a loss of sense that your breath has become short/diminished.
- degradation of the heart may cause doctors to mistake the virus symptoms with heart defect symptoms (thought by now the word must be out the both situations may be linked)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 26, 2020, 05:26:49 PM
MODERATOR NOTE: To keep the focus of this thread on current news, let's put discussions of the virus origin in the existing topic:
Virus accidentally released from lab ? (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=64761.0)

sorry  :-[
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 26, 2020, 05:40:22 PM
sorry  :-[

No problem.  All of these sub-topics are connected.  We're just trying to keep it easy for people to find what they're looking for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 26, 2020, 06:42:07 PM
And of tomorrow, chloroquine will be available in mass quantities to the health system. About 2.5 pills per each person.

Any idea how they plan to use?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 26, 2020, 07:47:58 PM
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49703049682_3061c313f4_b.jpg)

Big leap in cases for the US, with 20% of our total cases coming just from today alone.


(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49703049732_8494157005_b.jpg)

Not sure what's going on with WA, their new cases today are 5x what they were yesterday, definitely not a plateau.


It's interesting to look at the per capita COVID-19 burden for each state, not sure why Worldometer doesn't do it:

In aggregate, the total US disease burden in cases per million population = 85,280 / 330 (million) = 258 cases per million population

New York's cases per million population = 38,977 / 19.4 = 2,009 !!!

New Jersey = 6,876 / 8.9 = 773

California = 3,922 / 39.9 = 100

Washington = 3,207 / 7.8 = 411

Michigan = 2,856 / 10 = 286


Even the least populated state, Wyoming = 56 / 0.57 = 98 cases per million.  About the same as California and almost twice what China is reporting.


And don't forget Louisiana = 2,305 / 4.6 = 501 per million.  That's 5X California!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 26, 2020, 08:49:08 PM
The Wahington trend has definitely bee flatening.  The governor even commented on the positive trend today.  But the timing of reports is adding noise to the data.  This is the problem with time zones and difficulty of West Coast states to process complete data in time. WA added a note on their report yesterday.:

Due to a nearly ten-fold increase in the number of lab reports received electronically, our database is experiencing a substantial slowdown in processing lab data. Our IT team is working to correct the issue. In the meantime, daily updates may be published late and there may be a delay in including some test results in our totals.

The official 4 ET report is showing 2469 to 2580 for a change of 111.  This was probably too low meaning data wasnt fully populated.  The pending data is then getting added in the next day.  Some days are shorted and others are extended.  So it is probably best to start doing a running average over days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 26, 2020, 10:30:48 PM
the state of washington

3/22/20
1,996 cases
203 new cases that day
95 total deaths


3/26/20
3,207 cases
619 new cases that day
147 total deaths

i dont see any decrease
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 26, 2020, 11:27:31 PM
the state of washington

3/22/20
1,996 cases
203 new cases that day
95 total deaths


3/26/20
3,207 cases
619 new cases that day
147 total deaths

i dont see any decrease

Really?  You seriously dont see this flatening trend? 

20200326   WA   2,580   +4.5% (Note potential delayed data issue with cases moved into next day)
20200325   WA   2,469.  +11.2%
20200324   WA   2,221.  +11.3%
20200323   WA   1,996.  +11.3%
20200322   WA   1,793.  +17.7%
20200321   WA   1,524.  +10.8%
20200320   WA   1,376.  +15.9%
20200319   WA   1,187.  +17.3%
20200318   WA   1,012.  +11.9%
20200317   WA   904.     +17.6%
20200316   WA   769.     +19.8%
20200315   WA   642.     +13.0%
20200314   WA   568.     +24.3%
20200313   WA   457.     +35.6%
20200312   WA   337.     +26.2%
20200311   WA   267.     +64.8%
20200310   WA   162.     +19.1%
20200309   WA   136.     +33.3%
20200308   WA   102

From news:

Gov. Jay Inslee said Thursday morning that the infection rate from the coronavirus in Washington state is slowing compared to other states.
...
The governor presented a graph that shows that in Washington, based on numbers as of this morning, that social distancing could be starting to flatten the curve.

Inslee said the numbers are being helped by the slowing down of new cases primarily in Puget Sound, where the virus first hit in Snohomish County. Within weeks, the number of confirmed cases took off, with a cluster of infections at a Kirkland nursing home.

He said that is a sign the restrictions put in place over the past few weeks may be working.


(https://media.king5.com/assets/KING/images/8db839ca-8d95-43b1-9fec-4139a4719d59/8db839ca-8d95-43b1-9fec-4139a4719d59_750x422.jpg)


The scale on that chart is logrithmic.  So an exponential growth would be shown as a straight line.  The Washington trend is definitely no longer exponential in terms of days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Greekman on March 27, 2020, 12:36:55 AM
Any idea how they plan to use?

not exactly....the official (local FDA head) was very reserved on this because we had a drugstore run on this drug that created a temporary shortage (Chloroquine is used for other diseases too).
He did talk about distributing to hospitals and the ones getting would be those deemed in need of by the doctors there, but he did not say
1. at what illness stage would be administered.
2. if the private doctors can prescribe it at stay home patients. (judging by the availability *I* presume it will be administered in hospitals conjunction with a quick test diagnosis eventually)

BTW he was adamant that Chloroquine has bad side-effects, among them heart muscle degeneration, something that virus already does. So it requires administration under observation.

BTW 2....I would not assume that because Greece is getting in the Chlorquine bandwagon this is a confirmation of the drug being the Holy Grail. It might as well be a poor country's risk taken, in regards to therapy cost and ease of availability.

(the story behinds that is that a local generics producer secured 5 tons of, and an airlifting operation was staged with cooperation of the government and what used to be Olympic Airways)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 27, 2020, 01:22:20 AM
Really?  You seriously dont see this flatening trend? 

20200327 WA    3,207   +30%
20200326   WA   2,580   +4.5% (Note potential delayed data issue with cases moved into next day)
20200325   WA   2,469.  +11.2%
20200324   WA   2,221.  +11.3%
20200323   WA   1,996.  +11.3%
20200322   WA   1,793.  +17.7%
20200321   WA   1,524.  +10.8%
20200320   WA   1,376.  +15.9%
20200319   WA   1,187.  +17.3%
20200318   WA   1,012.  +11.9%
20200317   WA   904.     +17.6%
20200316   WA   769.     +19.8%
20200315   WA   642.     +13.0%
20200314   WA   568.     +24.3%
20200313   WA   457.     +35.6%
20200312   WA   337.     +26.2%
20200311   WA   267.     +64.8%
20200310   WA   162.     +19.1%
20200309   WA   136.     +33.3%
20200308   WA   102


Not sure what the trend is now.  Guess we'll see where tomorrow takes us.

I would expect major outbreaks are still to come outside of Puget Sound, where most of the WA's current cases are, such as Spokane, Yakima, Tri-Cities, and Vancouver (which is bascially a suburb of Portland, OR).  States with widely dispersed population centers will likely see their daily numbers wax and wane a bit as the infection moves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 27, 2020, 01:29:30 AM
Really?  You seriously dont see this flatening trend? 

not really. no.

"washington state appears to be achieving some “very modest improvement” in its battle against the coronavirus pandemic..."

this is an "appears to be"... this wording is not a definate yes it is for sure flattening the curve. that's just a maybe and inslee is hoping.

“The good news is our system is not overwhelmed today,” he said. Yet the overall caseload is still rising..."

still rising...

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/gov-inslee-stay-at-home-order-may-need-to-be-extended-to-fight-spread-of-coronavirus-in-washington/%3famp=1
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: suzysurvivor on March 27, 2020, 06:06:13 AM
New Orleans went from 1800 cases Wednesday to 2300 Thursday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Prepper456 on March 27, 2020, 08:39:59 AM
USA coronavirus deaths each day:
3/18: 38
3/19: 43
3/20: 54
3/21: 79
3/22: 105
3/23: 124
3/24: 157
3/25: 220
3/26: 280

we might hit 300 deaths per day today. this is exponential growth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 27, 2020, 11:29:26 AM
More masks going into the pipeline

Quote
A union representing healthcare works said Thursday that it had located 39 million N95 masks and was connecting their supplier to hospitals and state and local governments.
That's more than the number of masks in the US national stockpile, which has about 12 million N95 masks and 30 million surgical masks.
The masks are set to be distributed in California and New York at a cost of $5 each.

so, there are some hospitals can buy while we are ramping up production. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-39-million-n95-medical-masks-stockpile-us-hospitals-union-2020-3?op=1



Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 27, 2020, 02:26:47 PM
Based on empirical results, Imperial College model predictions have been slashed by over an order of magnitude.  For example, UK fatality estimate has been reduced from 500k to 20k or under.  Dr Brix is absolutely correct that there is no support for these apocolyptic models.  So now we are seeing large reductions in projected numbers. as predictions fail to materialize.   Danger now is people will stop following recommendations because the dooming and glooming has eroded public trust.  This is why worst case scenarios should never be presented without realistic projections.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489774-birx-cautions-against-inaccurate-models-predicting-signficant-coronavirus (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489774-birx-cautions-against-inaccurate-models-predicting-signficant-coronavirus)
Dr. Birx cautions against inaccurate models predicting significant coronavirus spread

White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx cautioned Thursday against models that predict alarming increases in coronavirus infections and deaths in the U.S.

Birx, speaking at a White House press briefing, singled out a recent study on the United Kingdom that originally predicted 500,000 people would die from the virus and has since been revised down to predict 20,000 deaths in the U.K. She said the data the government has collected does not show that 20 percent of the U.S. population would be infected with COVID-19, cautioning against predictions that say so.

“When people start talking about 20 percent of a population getting infected, it is very scary but we don’t have data that matches that based on the experience,” Birx said.

“There’s no … reality on the ground where we can see that 60 to 70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks,” Birx later continued.

Birx, an HIV/AIDS expert from the State Department who was brought on to coordinate the federal government’s response to the coronavirus, noted that 19 of the 50 U.S. states are showing a persistently low level of coronavirus cases despite reporting early infections. These 19 states each have fewer than 200 cases, Birx said, and are still working to actively contain the virus rather than mitigate its spread.

“That’s almost 40 percent of the country with extraordinarily low numbers and they are testing,” Birx said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 27, 2020, 02:45:52 PM
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/amp/ (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/amp/)
UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts
HEALTH 25 March 2020


The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government.

Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 27, 2020, 04:38:48 PM
... Danger now is people will stop following recommendations because the dooming and glooming has eroded public trust. ...

Yeah, this is really tricky, especially because even 2 weeks ago we had way less data for making forecasts.  I think it was reasonable at that time to say "This COULD become a massive disaster so PLEASE help stop the spread."  Today, depending on whose data you pick, things might be looking a little less apocalyptic, but there are still a lot of people dying, no proven treatment, and no vaccine.  A doubling rate of mere days is still pretty awful.  We want a doubling rate of weeks or months before we can start feeling secure.

One thing I've been wondering (and maybe this has already been in the news and I missed it): Are there different sub-strains of the coronavirus that vary in their lethality?  Maybe this could explain why certain locations are getting hit really hard, and others aren't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: fritz_monroe on March 27, 2020, 04:46:01 PM
The local news has been covering the people that are getting very mild symptoms quite a bit, then they will have someone talking about how it was the worst thing they ever experienced.

Wife told me this morning that the kid that was on the news about Spring Break and how "if I get it, I get it, it's not going to stop my partying."  Apparently he got it.  Interviewed on the news.  I want to know if anyone is going to ask him how it feels to be the evidence that some people will use to talk about how horrible and self centered his generation is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 27, 2020, 05:25:55 PM
WSJ:  ‘Terribly Traumatic.’ Patients, Doctors Confront Medical Rationing in the Coronavirus Era  (https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-crisis-forces-hospitals-to-consider-rationing-treatment-11585336785?mod=hp_lead_pos4)

Quote
But these plans are a hodgepodge, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of some 20 state policies publicly available. Some plans dictate that doctors color-code who gets ventilators, the breathing machines needed to treat the sickest coronavirus patients. In other instances, doctors could end up drawing names from hats to break ties, those involved in developing plans said. In still other cases, there isn’t any plan, leaving doctors and administrators to make choices as they go.

Some believe the color-coding system is imperfect, said Hassan Khouli, the chairman of the critical-care department at the Cleveland Clinic and a member of a task force that in 2015 developed New York state’s color-coding ventilator plan.

Under the system, “blues” are expected to die no matter what, “reds” get ventilators first because they are most likely to be saved, sicker “yellows” wait in line and “greens” can live without the devices.

But what is critical is having a plan, “so there is some fairness or transparency,” Dr. Khouli said. He noted that some states haven’t done so and face the prospect of justifying their decisions in the midst of a crisis.

Quote
Such decision-making has taken a toll on doctors in Italy, where a coronavirus epidemic has overwhelmed hospitals in some areas. In Bergamo, one of the hardest-hit areas, intensive care units have been taking almost no patients older than 70, doctors have said.

Quote
“I make these decisions every day,” said Francesco Rasulo, an intensive-care doctor at a hospital in Brescia, Italy, another hard-hit area near Bergamo. He said patients who don’t get ICU beds most likely wouldn’t have survived ventilation. They instead are given less-invasive treatment and, where needed, palliative care.

“If I had treated them, and not the others, both would have died,” Dr. Rasulo said. Making such decisions, he said, means taking home “every day my demons and my ghosts.”

Quote
“We have approved the technology that allows one ventilator to serve two patients—what they call splitting,” said New York’s Gov. Cuomo during a Thursday news conference, referring to a MacGyver-style approach that involves retrofitting tubing to connect multiple patients to the same ventilator. “It’s not ideal, but we believe it’s workable.”

Dr. Greg Neyman first envisioned the idea in 2006, but as far as he is aware, it has been tried just once, after the mass shooting in Las Vegas in 2017.

That case was simpler: the patients needed to be stabilized only for short periods before surgery. Covid-19 targets the lungs, so different patients require different ventilator settings and are harder to match. And sometimes they need breathing support for weeks.


I've got some knowledge of the New York color-code system, as I've been proof-reading my wife's adaptation for her institution this week.  I don't really like it.  But at least it's a plan that's transparent. 

California is currently working on a state-wide plan but no details, yet.


Ventilator splitting is more difficult than it sounds because it requires matching patients who require the exact same machine settings to share the same vent.  And most patients need more than 2 weeks of mechanical ventilation before they recover.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 27, 2020, 06:27:02 PM
If ethanol kills coronavirus on your hands, then it'll kill it in your body, right?  And methanol is almost like ethanol, right?

Times of India, 3/27/20: In Iran, false belief a poison fights coronavirus kills hundreds (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/in-iran-false-belief-a-poison-fights-coronavirus-kills-hundreds/articleshow/74844694.cms)

Quote
...Iranian media reports nearly 300 people have been killed and more than 1,000 sickened so far by ingesting methanol across the Islamic Republic, where drinking alcohol is banned and where those who do rely on bootleggers. It comes as fake remedies spread across social media in Iran, where people remain deeply suspicious of the government after it downplayed the crisis for days before it overwhelmed the country. ...

...in messages forwarded and forwarded again, Iranian social media accounts in Farsi falsely suggested a British school teacher and others cured themselves of the coronavirus with whiskey and honey, based on a tabloid story from early February. Mixed with messages about the use of alcohol-based hand sanitizers, some wrongly believed drinking high-proof alcohol would kill the virus in their bodies. ...

That fear of the virus, coupled with poor education and internet rumors, saw dozens sickened by drinking bootleg alcohol containing methanol in Iran’s southwestern Khuzestan province and its southern city of Shiraz. ...

Other Muslim nations that ban their citizens from drinking also see such methanol poisoning, although Iran appears to be the only one in the pandemic so far to turn toward it as a fake cure. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 27, 2020, 06:54:45 PM
3/27/20, American Thoracic Society: Some COVID-19 patients still have coronavirus after symptoms disappear: study (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-patients-coronavirus-symptoms.html)

Quote
In a new study, researchers found that half of the patients they treated for mild COVID-19 infection still had coronavirus for up to eight days after symptoms disappeared. ...

"If you had mild respiratory symptoms from COVID-19 and were staying at home so as not to infect people, extend your quarantine for another two weeks after recovery to ensure that you don't infect other people," recommended corresponding author Lixin Xie, MD...

The researchers emphasized that all of these patients had milder infections and recovered from the disease, and that the study looked at a small number of patients [16]. They noted that it is unclear whether similar results would hold true for more vulnerable patients such as the elderly, those with suppressed immune systems and patients on immunosuppressive therapies. ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 27, 2020, 07:15:06 PM
WSJ:  Italy’s Slow Progress in Fighting Coronavirus Is a Warning to West  (https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-slow-progress-in-fighting-coronavirus-is-a-warning-to-west-11585314541?mod=hp_lead_pos6&mod=article_inline)

Quote
More than 86,000 people in Italy have tested positive for the virus so far. But the head of Italy’s emergency services said up to 650,000 Italians may have been infected, many of them asymptomatic, meaning that even tighter quarantine measures could fail to stop the spread.

The country’s experience—which has served as the template for the lockdowns throughout much of the West and which followed several weeks of more limited quarantines in the country’s north—shows that such measures are very slow to produce results and may ultimately fail to stamp out the virus entirely.

That is instructive for other countries that must decide how hard to clamp down on their populations, and how to calculate the attendant economic damage. At the moment, the U.S. has a patchwork of policies while most of Europe is under some form of a lockdown.

“The restrictions had a big impact. It’s the only thing that allowed us to survive,” said Alessandro Triboldi, the head of Brescia Poliambulanza Hospital.

“But we need to get into our heads that we’re in this for the long haul,” he added. “In China, it took two months of complete closure to go down to zero contagions. What’s been done here so far has helped save (the northern region of) Lombardy but it’s not over yet.”

Quote
Italy’s experience shows that Western-style lockdowns that don’t involve the coercive measures of Wuhan may have to be maintained for longer than Western societies are willing to tolerate to see results.

“The issue is whether you can sustain a lockdown for the time it takes to work—three, four, five, six months or longer—while the economy goes south,” said Dr. Gabor Kelen, director of the Department of Emergency Medicine at Johns Hopkins Medicine.


Lockdowns of 3-6 months, or more, what country's economy can tolerate that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 27, 2020, 08:15:12 PM
WSJ:  Italy’s Slow Progress in Fighting Coronavirus Is a Warning to West  (https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-slow-progress-in-fighting-coronavirus-is-a-warning-to-west-11585314541?mod=hp_lead_pos6&mod=article_inline)


Lockdowns of 3-6 months, or more, what country's economy can tolerate that?

None.  We would be better to take an in between position.   People can go out only if they are wearing the equivalent of a surgical mask, as anyone can be an asymptomitic carrier.  If everyone is wearing one, and the most vulnerable population ( over some age number like 62 or 65 ) stays in self quarantine, then we can have economic activites back, and we need them back well before a quarter or half a year.  Of course, continue with some people working at home if it makes sense. 

So, for the argument that we dont have enough masks, they are easily sewn, an equivalent to a surgical or procedure ( not sure which of the 2 is the preferred term) there are many patterns floating around and a veritable army of people sitting at home with sewing machines that WANT to help !  Every country that lets the people out and about masked, and only masked, do not have this quandry.  We have been doing a great disservice not having public discourse on various options like this !  No, instead we just ruin our economy.... 

Right now, while in our stay at homes, we should be talking about how we leave it !  With measures like that.   It is not that the disease goes away, it is that we slow it down while not ruining our society and economy. 

countries doing this :
 - South Korea
- Hong Kong
-Japan
- singapore
- Taiwan
- czech republic

The czech republic did not have any factory made masks either.  There are none to be bought.  So, everyone that can sew has been sewing them and giving them away.  We could do this !  This is not hard.

Yes, I know these countries also use other measure, including some time with quarantines ( stay-at-home) but the mask use is how to keep some of the essential going while getting this under control, and whenit is more under control, more people go about their business with masks



https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30229968/

Quote
It was found that a 50% compliance in donning the device resulted in a significant (at least 50% prevalence and 20% cumulative incidence) reduction in risk for fitted and unfitted N95 respirators, high-filtration surgical masks, and both low-filtration and high-filtration pediatric masks. An 80% compliance rate essentially eliminated the influenza outbreak.

So, signifcant results with only 50% compliance
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 27, 2020, 08:56:33 PM
NYT:  For Dr. Deborah Birx, Urging Calm Has Come With Heavy Criticism (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/us/politics/deborah-birx-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

Quote
Dr. Birx’s comments, especially those dismissing ventilator shortages, startled some health experts. While most hospitals might have sufficient supplies at the moment, many worry about a crush of patients in the very near future.

Dr. Howard Bauchner, the editor in chief of The Journal of the American Medical Association, warned Friday of “a potential tsunami coming” on a video call with hundreds of other physicians about rationing ventilators and critical care.

Dr. Ryan A. Stanton, a board member at the American College of Emergency Physicians, said Dr. Birx sounded like “the builders of the Titanic saying the ship can’t sink.”

Quote
After talking to New York officials, Dr. Birx said she had been told that there were still intensive care beds and “over 1,000 or 2,000” ventilators still available. She also dismissed news stories of hospitals drafting blanket do-not-resuscitate orders for critically ill Covid-19 patients.

Quote
In meetings, Mr. Trump appears to prefer Dr. Birx’s genial approach over Dr. Fauci’s blunt talk.

Mr. Trump and several White House officials view Dr. Fauci with some level of skepticism, believing he tends too much to his own public persona and has gone “rogue” on messaging. Dr. Birx, they think, is more willing to be patient with the president’s interruptions and theorizing about medicine.

Among Mr. Trump’s frustrations with Dr. Fauci has been his unwillingness to embrace the malaria drugs that Mr. Trump has celebrated, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine. Dr. Fauci has been much more vocal about their risks, and dismissed potential evidence of their success in treating the coronavirus as anecdotal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: mountainmoma on March 28, 2020, 12:53:21 AM
I wonder how acurate the model for this is ?  https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

This is an interactive chart where you can choose which state, which I found helpful, the country is very large, by choosing which state it was easier to see where the big problems of lack of hospital beds are, as it is not all over, according to this anyways. 

It also projects peak of the wave of the illness, this wave anyway.  Which is sooner for New York, in a couple weeks, with california more end of april.  SO it projects New York over the hump by and of April, but it also shows New York having about 1/4th of the hospital beds it needs.  It shows Californa and Oregon pretty much having enough beds, or close, and over this hump of the outbreak by June.  But, you cant just put LA or Portland, for example, patients in a hospital far away, so Obviously we realy do have regional shortages that are going to be bad. 

 I pray for New York, New Jersey, Louisiana right now
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 28, 2020, 02:06:51 AM
I wonder how acurate the model for this is ?  https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I wonder, too.  It would be nice if you could drill down to specific regions within each state.


According to their projections the North East is going to get hit hard, as is Michigan.  Never would have expected Indiana and Missouri to be facing crisis shortfalls.  Louisiana and Georgia are the southern hot spots.


Actually the West looks way better than I would have expected, except for Nevada. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 28, 2020, 08:50:24 AM
Any idea how long each person has to stay on a ventilator?

The reason I ask is that, if we send all our ventilators to NY to help with their current crisis, then in about 2 weeks, when other places are desperate for more, there won't be any available to give them, as NY won't be able to send them back yet, right? Because the sick people in NY will still be on those ventilators...

So, essentially, where those ventilators get sent now determines which people will live and which will die (geographically, I mean).

We know that many other places (like Chicago, California, Atlanta, New Orleans, etc.) will be in a similar situation to New York's in just a few weeks... do we really think that there will be a slam-dunk treatment or cure that will make those ventilators unnecessary elsewhere in that time period? Or do we bet that the self-isolation measures will prevent spikes in number of patients in the rest of the country? And that the new manufacture of new ventilators will be able to meet the need by then?

It's a terrible situation and moral dilemma.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 28, 2020, 09:34:32 AM
So, essentially, where those ventilators get sent now determines which people will live and which will die (geographically, I mean).

Well, not to be macabre about it, but from anecdotal reports few who go on ventilators recover. The hope is that this will improve with the antiviral  treatments. One of the reported benefits of the treatments is it stops progression before a ventilator is needed.  So in countries like South Korea where treatment is aggresive, many are reportedly on oxygen nostril tubes rather than ventilators.

To answer your question directly, 2 to 3 weeks is a regularly cited time on ventilators. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 28, 2020, 09:58:10 AM
Well, not to be macabre about it, but from anecdotal reports few who go on ventilators recover. The hope is that this will improve with the antiviral  treatments. One of the reported benefits of the treatments is it stops progression before a ventilator is needed.  So in countries like South Korea where treatment is aggresive, many are reportedly on oxygen nostril tubes rather than ventilators.

To answer your question directly, 2 to 3 weeks is a regularly cited time on ventilators.

so.  the whole ventilator fight is over how to extend someone's life a few days or weeks; not to cure them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Chemsoldier on March 28, 2020, 10:13:21 AM
so.  the whole ventilator fight is over how to extend someone's life a few days or weeks; not to cure them.

That is not what I am getting from medical people in my area.

The way it was explained to me, a patient's lung functions deteriorate and it is not transferring oxygen efficiently.  Their respiration increases to compensate.  Over time the exertion of rapid breathing fatigues the patient.  Eventually they cannot sustain the respiration rate.  Oxygen helps some.  However, when they cannot sustain adequate respiration due to fatigue, they must be put on a ventilator to breath for them.  In time, many patients will fight off the virus and their lung function increases to the point that they dont need the ventilator.  I am told that younger patients with no other risk factors have a very good chance of doing just that.

Obviously the whole thing is a huge shock to the patient's system and can cause other issues.  The typical hospital risks like infections are always present also.

But it is too pat to say that ventilators dont really help.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: iam4liberty on March 28, 2020, 10:53:30 AM
Everything I have seen puts the rate of someone with Covid-19 being removed alive from ventilator intubation at less  than 20% (and those removed don't necessarily survive).   I would love to hear some positive news otherwise. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: Chemsoldier on March 28, 2020, 11:15:34 AM
An ICU nurse in the Denver metro of my acquaintance (and much closer to a former forum member) is saying that more ventilator COVID patients are living than dying nation wide according to brutally honest information sharing channels among emergency medical providers.  Her ICU has not had any ventilator patients die yet.  Other metrics of their status are not bad at all for ICU patients, they just need the vent to stay alive.  The issue is some of the patients will recover just fine but need weeks on the ventilator.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: LvsChant on March 28, 2020, 01:51:05 PM
An ICU nurse in the Denver metro of my acquaintance (and much closer to a former forum member) is saying that more ventilator COVID patients are living than dying nation wide according to brutally honest information sharing channels among emergency medical providers.  Her ICU has not had any ventilator patients die yet.  Other metrics of their status are not bad at all for ICU patients, they just need the vent to stay alive.  The issue is some of the patients will recover just fine but need weeks on the ventilator.

Good information... so obviously, even if the ventilators will save lives, it will takes weeks of intensive care for each one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 28, 2020, 02:00:35 PM
Everything I have seen puts the rate of someone with Covid-19 being removed alive from ventilator intubation at less  than 20% (and those removed don't necessarily survive).   I would love to hear some positive news otherwise.

Severe COVID-19 cases develop Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), which is a condition critical care specialists have considerable experience treating with mechanical ventilation in an ICU setting.  ARDS in general has a fatality rate of 30-40%.   COVID-19 appears to cause a respiratory failure that is at the severe side of the ARDS spectrum and Chinese data (not my first choice of trustworthy information these days) shows about a 50% survival rate. 

Since COVID patients are requiring 2-3+ weeks of ventilation we don't have a lot of US data yet but I would expect that it will show the overall odds of patient survival to be better than 50%.

However, this is going to be very much age dependent and whether COVID causes other organ failures that requires treatment.  A 40-something patient with only ARDS could survive >80% of the time, but a 70-something with hepatorenal failure on top of the ARDS might be <10%.



This is where NY's color-coding system for rationing ventilators comes into play.  Every day the clinical team reports the objective data on all the patient's needing a ventilator to the triage team.  Based on the severity and multitude of organ failure, the patient's chances of getting (or keeping) a ventilator rises and falls against every other patient. 

The sicker you are, or the longer you go without making progress, the less likely you are to stay on the vent.  A lot of these patients who are not making progress will be extubated so their vent can be used by a patient with better numbers.  At that point they get moved out of the ICU and placed on sufficient morphine and Ativan to reduce their air hunger and keep them comfortable until they either get better or die. 


Obviously, in a pandemic situation where resources are stretched to the limit the survival rates deteriorate, so areas of the country most impacted by this disease will have the more dismal numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
Post by: FreeLancer on March 28, 2020, 04:04:09 PM
NYT:  ‘War Zone’: Ambulances in N.Y.C. Are Now as Busy as on Sept. 11 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-ems.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage)

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“I’m terrified,” said Mr. Suarez, who has been a paramedic in New York City for 26 years and had assisted in rescue efforts during the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks and later served in the Iraq war. “I honestly don’t know if I’m going to survive. I’m terrified of what I’ve already possibly brought home.”

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Because of the volume, emergency medical workers are making life-or-death decisions about who is sick enough to take to crowded emergency rooms and who appears well enough to leave behind. They are assessing on scene which patients should receive time-consuming measures like CPR and intubation, and which patients are too far gone to save.

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If the rate of growth in cases in the New York area continues, it will suffer a more severe outbreak than those experienced in Wuhan, China, or the Lombardy region of Italy.

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Three weeks ago, the paramedics said, most coronavirus calls were for respiratory distress or fever. Now the same types of patients, after having been sent home from the hospital, are experiencing organ failure and cardiac arrest.

“We’re getting them at the point where they’re starting to decompensate,” said the Brooklyn paramedic, who is employed by the Fire Department. “The way that it wreaks havoc in the body is almost flying in the face of everything that we know.”

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Another paramedic in Brooklyn said she had been using the same N95 mask for days. Last week, as she and her partner exited an apartment building after tending to a patient, the building’s supervisor — noticing the pair’s worn equipment — met them downstairs and shoved new N95 masks and a can of Lysol into their arms.