The Survival Podcast Forum

Survivalism & Self Sufficiency Topics => COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic => Topic started by: Mr. Bill on February 20, 2020, 11:19:24 AM

Title: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 20, 2020, 11:19:24 AM
CarbonBrief, 2/19/20: Analysis: Coronavirus has temporarily reduced China’s CO2 emissions by a quarter (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-temporarily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter)

This article is centered around CO2 emissions, but ignore that for a moment.  The interesting stuff is all the supporting data about what has happened to China's economy in the past few weeks.

Quote
...Electricity demand and industrial output remain far below their usual levels across a range of indicators, many of which are at their lowest two-week average in several years. These include:

    Coal use at power stations reporting daily data at a four-year low.
    Oil refinery operating rates in Shandong province at the lowest level since 2015.
    Output of key steel product lines at the lowest level for five years.
    Levels of NO2 air pollution over China down 36% on the same period last year.
    Domestic flights are down up to 70% compared to last month.

All told, the measures to contain coronavirus have resulted in reductions of 15% to 40% in output across key industrial sectors. ...

However, the Chinese government’s coming stimulus measures in response to the disruption could outweigh these shorter-term impacts on energy and emissions, as it did after the global financial crisis and the 2015 domestic economic downturn.

Every winter, during Chinese new year, the country closes down for a week, with shops and construction sites closing and most industries winding down operations. The holiday has a significant short-term impact on energy demand, industrial output and emissions. ...

This year ... the usual fall in energy use has been prolonged by 10 days so far, with no sign of rebound. This is because the annual holiday was extended to give the government more time to get the epidemic under control – and demand has remained subdued, even after the official resumption of work on 10 February. ...

The short-term effect has been equally dramatic across a range of other industrial indicators...

Strikingly, all indicators of industrial capacity utilisation – coal power plants, blast furnaces, coking, steel products, refineries – deteriorated further in the week commencing 10 February, when business was officially expected to resume. ...

There is further confirmation of the reduction in fossil-fuel use in satellite measurements of NO2, an air pollutant closely associated with fossil-fuel burning. In the week after the 2020 Chinese new year holiday, average levels were 36% lower over China than in the same period in 2019...

See the article for graphs, satellite imagery, and lots of economic analysis.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DDJ on February 21, 2020, 11:07:57 AM
The Economics will trickle out to the rest of us.  It is not as visible yet as ships that left port in China are just now getting to harbor.  As expected deliveries are missed the world will demand more and faster.  When China gets back into full production, my sources is a lot of companies should be near full operation force this next week, There customers will be demanding that materials be Air freighted so that commitments will be met.  That will drive costs up or drive down availability.  Costs around the world will go up.

That all assumes that there is not an uptick in cases when people go back to work and they send people home.

I am not expecting early 2020 to be a good time economically.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on February 21, 2020, 12:36:14 PM
It's very hard to get a good read on the actual economic problems. Since the Chinese usually take the New Year off one would presume some inventory is built up. We also don't know for sure what the Chinese do for inventory with respect to complete 3rd party suppliers. That said, American industry that relies on the brilliant "just in time" model to avoid inventory at any cost can be hit hard by even a slight disruption.

I've read reports from cars to food (we sell a lot of food back and forth) could be in for a supply chain problem.

There is one glimmer of hope globally... Foreign companies have been trying to move out of China for years because of the very shady government there. So there might be some mitigation on the supply side as more production in India and Central America pick up for the production loss. I know of companies that have fallback contracts for this very event.

We're going to learn some hard lessons either way. I do think this long term effects China in a very bad way as the perception will be that the government is so corrupt it either tried a cover-up or is so inept it did nothing. Both signal a lack of stability that scares away business.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Morning Sunshine on February 21, 2020, 03:12:27 PM
We're going to learn some hard lessons either way. I do think this long term effects China in a very bad way as the perception will be that the government is so corrupt it either tried a cover-up or is so inept it did nothing. Both signal a lack of stability that scares away business.

this
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: FreeLancer on February 25, 2020, 11:07:52 PM
WaPo:  White House struggles to contain public alarm over coronavirus (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/02/25/white-house-struggles-contain-public-alarm-over-coronavirus-despite-panic/)

Quote
Top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told The Washington Post late Monday that investors should consider “buying these dips” in the stock market amid the coronavirus panic. The message was to take advantage of one-day slumps and “buy low.”

After all, the Dow Jones industrial average had just fallen 1,032 points. President Trump tweeted similar guidance thousands of miles away in India.

Less than 24 hours later, the Dow Jones industrial average would fall another 879 points, bringing Trump and Kudlow’s investment advice — at least in the short term — under greater scrutiny.

The rosy sheen that Trump, Kudlow and other White House officials have tried to express about the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak has now collided with reality: The coronavirus is spreading, quickly, to more countries. The death toll is rising, and the outbreak is wreaking havoc on global supply chains.

And the White House’s efforts to contain and control government messaging on the disease have come under attack. Trump is highly concerned about the market and has encouraged aides not to give predictions that might cause further tremors. He is expected to talk to officials Wednesday, said aides, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: FreeLancer on February 27, 2020, 02:11:06 PM
Another big down day for the markets.  We’re more than 10% below all time highs.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on March 09, 2020, 08:32:41 AM
The 10 year bond hit an all-time low overnight. According to CNBC it hit .318% which is downright pathetic.

As bad as a few investing benchmarks are there also humanitarian disasters. Syria and Turkey are in a dust-up and Greece is shutting down refugee travel. So we have a very unknown disease combined with migration issues that literally had EU leaders calling Greece the "shield of Europe" for halting immigration. Don't think it's a little thing. They mobilized the military. If Greece and Turkey go hot it's the EU vs. NATO.

This also sits on the current economic course where China has heavily invested in Africa, arguably the least prepared for a pandemic.

I think this is what is dragging down markets. We just don't know how bad this is and how it will effect things. It sound mundane but if Africa gets it hard small things like global coffee and chocolate prices could go haywire. Leta alone that semiconductor makers in China use elements mined globally. We don't know where the disruption will hit. While I don't think this is the "big one" price instability and supply chain disruption along with migration hostility can be brutal from an economic view.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on March 09, 2020, 09:53:02 AM
This is what is great about keeping core investments diversified in Harry Browne's permanent portfolio structure.  The rise in gold and treasury bonds more than compensates for decline in stocks.  So portfolio is actually growing.  that growth can  now be used to rebalance into stocks at much better prices.  It was interesting to see bond prices rise by over 6% in a day.  Congrats to those who diversified.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bigbear on March 09, 2020, 10:44:57 AM
I think this is what is dragging down markets.

Nah... Today's not about COVID.  It's about Russia.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bigbear on March 09, 2020, 10:54:41 AM
To clarify - It's directly related to COVID, but it's one of the many layers built in the jenga puzzle.  Russia pulled the wrong block out at the wrong time.  Whether intentionally or not is TBD...
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on March 09, 2020, 11:06:49 AM
This is the discussion going on today in many boardrooms.

(https://marketoonist.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/200309.uncertainty.jpg)
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: bigbear on March 09, 2020, 11:11:23 AM
Sorry, one more... 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/06/russias-defiance-sets-the-stage-for-oil-price-bloodbath/

Quote
While Russia had been reluctant to make production cuts at this week’s meeting, most observers expected that OPEC and Russia would reach a deal in the end, if only because of the sheer magnitude of the economic damage being wrought by the coronavirus. Moscow put those lingering hopes to rest Friday, and with them the three-plus years of cooperation with OPEC that had restored those big oil producers to their traditional role as arbiters of the world’s most important commodity market.

“Russia decided the needed cuts were just too big and didn’t want to start down that road,” said Bob McNally, the president of Rapidan Energy Group, an energy consultancy. “They think they can live with the lesser evil of lower prices. We’re going to test that.”

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/investing/oil-prices-crash-opec-russia-saudi-arabia/index.html

Per this article - Russia's move may have been to target US shale oil producers.  Which is beyond the COVID impact.  Up until this point, I didn't think the COVID concerns would be longer than a 3-6 month thing.  This changes the script significantly.

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on March 09, 2020, 12:34:02 PM
VXX is up 21% on the day. Trader's dream come true.

I'd be happier if the bond market hadn't been in the doldrums for so long. Yes, I have bond exposure so that's all well and good. But I'm still looking around because there could be issues. Looking at a basket of commodities is very eye opening. Even something as little as a Midwest chicken farmer probably sells the feet to China. The number of people who remotely understand these businesses are very small. We're in a way sinking back into 1700s economics. Grain in Odessa and hunger in Paris.

I hope I'm right that the number of infected is vastly higher than reported and we kinda get control and find that healthy people rebound quickly. But there are some real economic landmines that we're going to run past while in a bad ways. Very many industries like fishing, flowers (in Holland), shipping, tech, etc. rely on massive clearing houses and handshake deals. Anything commodity priced needs the creator, the middleman, the vendor, and the retailer to get it in your hands. Losing one link would be bad.

Many moving parts. I doubt we'll really know the scope for a while. It's really hard to price in what happens when a port closes.

Also, one thing we can say for sure about corona is that it's hard hitting on the elderly. Take a good look at your CEOs, CFOs, Boards of Directors, Senate, House of Representatives, Presidential candidates, Supreme Court, etc. Markets like stability and predictability. China squandered that. But we could be hot on their tail.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on March 09, 2020, 01:30:04 PM
VXX is up 21% on the day. Trader's dream come true.

No kidding.  I couldnt resist buying into some of the airlines and US growth funds.  So much quality on sale today.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on March 10, 2020, 01:09:28 PM
Some numbers are scary. SXSW has been cancelled. Formula 1 and rugby are going spectatorless. Pearl Jam cancelled a tour. Also keep on mind Disney made about 65% of its business last year on parks an live shows. CPAC had a corona scare.

Major events all over are being cancelled. That has a lot of tertiary effects on businesses like airlines and car rental. Especially if we limit business travel. The entire hospitality industry will take a hit.

Too early to tell but this could  really stir up a few industries.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on March 10, 2020, 01:39:02 PM
I'm more worried about what the government response is going to be.  I am afraid we will only bail out industry, yet again.  And, not productively, for example, travel and entertainment, or tax write offs for x, y and z When maybe all we should do is, if and when alot of areas are sick and/or quarantines out of work, have a moratorium on bills for that month or 2 until the virus initial surge passes.  This should not cost the taxpayers, only keep it so people and businesses do not have evictions due to rent or mortgage or have late fees on the loans.

And, of course, do spend money on the virus treatment itself, and on food if needed, we could give the states USDA food to distribute.  We could reimburse for some of the costs for medical, as this is an emergency, assuming it is going to stay on course and overwhem hospitals.  We cant have hospitals go out of business or not have needed supplies, this we should be putting money towards

But, I am afraid that we are going to go crazy on bail outs.  You would think that everyone would be happy to have hits on travel and cruises, isnt that what the global warming scare wants ?  Well, here it is.  Less carbon burnt, and some things go out of business so cant waste all that fuel in the future....
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on March 10, 2020, 01:43:35 PM
Major events all over are being cancelled. That has a lot of tertiary effects on businesses like airlines and car rental. Especially if we limit business travel. The entire hospitality industry will take a hit.

Too early to tell but this could  really stir up a few industries.

On other side of coin, I am loving the returns from robotics (robots dont get wuhan coronavurus) and cybersecurity (lots of people now working from home) stocks.  Bought into Delta yesterday and it is already up 5%.  Disney parks may see big boost this summer as people will tend to vacation near home rather than travel overseas.  Now is probably a great time to invest in outdoor recreation (hiking, etc) stocks as people will be antsy to get out and see things.  And it looks like it will be quick as South Korea almost already has it licked.  So US will likewise likely fare much better than China  And if it does end quickly, the market will likely rally to records.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on March 10, 2020, 01:59:17 PM
Quote
Washington State Gov. Jay Inslee said Tuesday that the entire state of Washington might need to be quarantined because of the outbreak. With so many expected to be out of work, Inslee said the state would be expanding unemployment benefits to cover anybody who misses work because of the virus.

Ok, I am feeling abit better, I wasnt thinking about how the states do unemployemnt benefits.  So that will be a help. 

However, we still would need a moratorium on certain bills for a short bit to keep small businesses from failing
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: FreeLancer on March 11, 2020, 07:41:44 PM
On other side of coin, I am loving the returns from robotics (robots dont get wuhan coronavurus) and cybersecurity (lots of people now working from home) stocks.  Bought into Delta yesterday and it is already up 5%.  Disney parks may see big boost this summer as people will tend to vacation near home rather than travel overseas.  Now is probably a great time to invest in outdoor recreation (hiking, etc) stocks as people will be antsy to get out and see things.  And it looks like it will be quick as South Korea almost already has it licked.  So US will likewise likely fare much better than China  And if it does end quickly, the market will likely rally to records.


Still as sanguine today?
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on March 11, 2020, 08:45:11 PM

Still as sanguine today?

Absolutely.  Portfolio doing great and continues to rise.  And lots of good investment options for rebalancing.  Kind of hard to lose with treasury bonds up 21% YTD.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on March 12, 2020, 06:02:03 AM
Trump has 30 day travel ban from most of Europe. NBA suspends season after Jazz center Rudy Gobert tests positive.

These are big impacts. We shall see.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on March 12, 2020, 11:58:46 AM
This is probably a good time to encourage people to look into Harry Browne's permanent portfoilio.  There are forum threads on it.  It is a method of portfolio diversification which works well in all environments including panics.  You divide your core (non-speculative) holdings into four equal  buckets: stocks, bonds (long term treasuries), cash (short term treasuries), and gold. 

For example, here is my implementation within a tax-advantaged ira:

Stocks
VTSAX Vangaurd Total Stock Market Index Fund                20%   -18.5% YTD
VTIAX Vangaurd Total International Stock Market Fund.      5%  - 15.71%

Bonds
US Treasury CPN 3.00000% MTD 2045.                                 25%     +20.7%

Cash
VFISX. Vanguard Short Term Treasury Fund                          25%    +1.8%

Gold
SGOL. Aberdeen Standard Physical Gold ETF.                        25%    +4.0%

Total:                                                                                             100%   +2.6%

So, despite panic, the portfolio is up +2.6% from start of year (and way up vs YAG), not including bond dividends which is icing on the cake.  This is funneled into growing core holdings and speculations.  Which means right now buying high quality assets CHEAP, CHEAP, CHEAP!

Net, there is no need to fear panics like what is going on right now.  Diversification mutes the drops and enables buying low and selling high.  As things calm down, simply rebalance and watch the value jump.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 12, 2020, 12:31:11 PM
This is probably a good time to encourage people to look into Harry Browne's permanent portfoilio. ...

You and I actually agree on something. 8)

Harry Browne's system has saved us from a lot of grief over the years.  The hardest part is sticking to it when it looks stupid, e.g. "Gold is NEVER going to go up, I don't want 25% of my assets in it!" or "It's impossible for Treasury bonds to go higher".  We missed out on some gains when we got timid and reduced one or another category down to 20%.  Gotta remember, the purpose of the Permanent Portfolio is to protect your savings (and maybe make some modest gains), not to beat the market and get fabulously rich in a month.  This means some of your investments WILL decline in value -- but that should be counterbalanced by the others that go up.

Nothing wrong with trying to beat the market if you want to try, but that part of your assets is the "Variable Portfolio" and must be money that you can afford to lose.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on March 12, 2020, 01:20:08 PM
You and I actually agree on something. 8)

We agree on a lot of things.  Just not on a few political points.

Oops, just noticed I flipped returns on the stock portion when transcribing: 

Stocks
VTSAX Vangaurd Total Stock Market Index Fund                20%   -18.5% -15.7 YTD
VTIAX Vangaurd Total International Stock Market Fund.      5%  - 15.71% -18.5%

Bonds
US Treasury CPN 3.00000% MTD 2045.                                 25%     +20.7%

Cash
VFISX. Vanguard Short Term Treasury Fund                          25%    +1.8%

Gold
SGOL. Aberdeen Standard Physical Gold ETF.                        25%    +4.0%

Total:                                                                                             100%   +2.6%
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on March 13, 2020, 07:25:28 PM
Largest one day rise in history.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-index-reaction-trump-coronavirus-speech-plan-2020-3-1028995408 (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-index-reaction-trump-coronavirus-speech-plan-2020-3-1028995408)
Dow surges 1,985 points as Trump's coronavirus address eases concerns of economic damage
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on March 14, 2020, 11:45:32 PM
Good perspective.

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/how-stay-calm-when-markets-stumble.html (https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/how-stay-calm-when-markets-stumble.html)
4 ways to stay calm when markets stumble

(https://www.capitalgroup.com/content/capital-group/us/en/advisor/home/insights/articles/how-stay-calm-when-markets-stumble/_jcr_content/root/contentfragmentwt/par5/image.coreimg.100.0.jpeg/1583361795530/chart-downturns-916x370.jpeg)

(https://www.capitalgroup.com/content/capital-group/us/en/advisor/home/insights/articles/how-stay-calm-when-markets-stumble/_jcr_content/root/contentfragmentwt/par20/image.coreimg.100.0.png/1583361786999/chart-virus-dates-03032020-916x596.png)
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 15, 2020, 10:12:18 PM
Gold/silver coin inventory is apparently drying up.  Texas Precious Metals has effectively stopped selling any coins (well, you can buy what little they have in stock, but only to be stored in their repository until "normal operations resume").

https://www.texmetals.com/news/
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: surfivor on March 16, 2020, 03:39:10 AM

Norm Patis who is a lawyer and part of federalist society says his associate and other have been in meetings with trump to not declare martial law but that’s essentials what trump wants to do. He is saying trump wants to ban all interstate travel and similar. The implications of that and how to enforce it would essentially be martial law is what is being said
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Chemsoldier on March 16, 2020, 06:27:20 AM
I dont understand the point of the fed cutting interest rates to zero now.  As long as the population is worried about their safety, more long term concerns are going to take a back seat.  It seems to me to be all the bad parts of stimulus with none of the benefits.  Wait for panic buying to stop, people allowed to go commerce freely, THEN stimulate if you are bound and determined to stimulate.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on March 16, 2020, 08:57:55 AM
I dont understand the point of the fed cutting interest rates to zero now.

They were trying to bail out out some big players with huge margin positions.  But it backfired as it sent a negative message at a critical time.  So now we see stock market zig down again.  It is a giant seesaw right now. 

This sharp up and down definitely makes it difficult to figure out when to rebalance a portfolio. 
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: FreeLancer on March 16, 2020, 02:07:58 PM
Dow finished down 13%.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 16, 2020, 08:05:25 PM
Dow finished down 13%.

And that after the Fed basically announced free money.

So the question is, are the markets "buying toilet paper" as fast as they can just because everyone else is buying at the same time, or are they buying because they expect a long-term toilet paper shortage?
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: FreeLancer on March 16, 2020, 09:13:38 PM
At the rate they're going to have to print money, it will be cheaper to wipe with a greenback than with toilet paper.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 17, 2020, 06:17:02 AM
At the rate they're going to have to print money, it will be cheaper to wipe with a greenback than with toilet paper.

too bad no one has paper money...
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Chemsoldier on March 17, 2020, 08:26:26 PM
Cash payments to all Americans?

Didnt we try this in 2008?  As I recall people mostly just paid off debt with it and it didn't really boost economic activity much.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/17/816880576/white-house-expected-to-provide-updates-on-coronavirus-response

I mean...if they insist I suppose I will buy a gun or something.  Far be it from me to be selfish or unpatriotic...
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: surfivor on March 17, 2020, 09:01:08 PM
There's all kinds of articles saying the UK needs to shut down for 18 months. That seems like an awfully long time. I had heard claims they may want to do that in the US but I have not found articles leading to that conclusion as of yet or since the last time I checked. I think people around here are expecting 3 weeks to maybe 6 but going into the summer would seem fairly drastic. I don't see how society as we know it can sustain such conditions.

 Some are saying China is kind of on the way to being back to normal but I am not sure about that.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8120501/Draconian-shutdown-measures-18-MONTHS-coronavirus-report-warns.html

Coronavirus 'shutdown' could last 18 months: Another warning from the experts who triggered Boris Johnson U-turn by telling him 250,000 could die
Team of experts at Imperial College London made sobering predictions in a report to advise Government

==============

I had also heard that seasonal flu kills half a million people or more every year which is a lot higher than I had imagined. Coronovirus is currently at 8,000 deaths.

Someone also said that the 3.4% death rate by coronavirus is arrived at by mostly counting the people who where very sick and went to the hospital. Many people probably got sick and recovered and never reported it to anyone and the claim is they where never counted.

 I am not exactly sure if that means anything or not but it's what some people have argued

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a new estimate that's higher than the previous one of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.

Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on March 19, 2020, 05:48:32 PM
Strong recovery in bitcoin today.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: theBINKYhunter on March 19, 2020, 10:28:50 PM
Legit question: Should I be educating myself about the prospects of moving 401k investments into a money market fund or am I too late to do anything? My personal 401k isn't huge at the new job but my MIL is taking a bath in the accounts she inherited and is freaking out. I realize freaking out is a bad time to do anything so I'm very cautiously attempting to offer help. My understanding is Money Market is the best Cash Equivalent you can get in most 401ks.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on March 19, 2020, 11:18:47 PM
Legit question: Should I be educating myself about the prospects of moving 401k investments into a money market fund or am I too late to do anything? My personal 401k isn't huge at the new job but my MIL is taking a bath in the accounts she inherited and is freaking out. I realize freaking out is a bad time to do anything so I'm very cautiously attempting to offer help. My understanding is Money Market is the best Cash Equivalent you can get in most 401ks.

"Money Market" is a broad term encompassing the wide variety of short term, liquid assets. Money Market funds can hold a combination of private as well as local, state, and federal investment offerings; for example commercial paper, certificates of deposit, short term mortgages, treasury bills, and many others.  So what you need to aalso decide is what type of money market fund you are interested in.

For example, a fund like the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX) invests in US Federal securities.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMFXX (https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMFXX)

And one like Vanguard Municipal Money Market Fund (VMSXX) invests in Municipal level government securities.

If you are looking for as safe of a cash equivalent as possible, then you would choose one that invests in US Federal securities over local or private ones. But they often arent an option in 401Ks.

An alternative to this is a short-term US Treasury fund.  Something like VFISX. Vanguard Short Term Treasury Fund.  https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VFISX (https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VFISX).  This type of index fund serves the same purpose and is more likely to be an option in your 401K than a momey market fund which invests only in federal securities.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: theBINKYhunter on March 20, 2020, 01:50:23 AM
I was looking at my plan earlier when I posted this. VMFXX is an option that I have to invest in. It appears that's the only 'Short Term Investments' option I have. All of the options in my plan are some type of Vanguard. Then there's the smattering of 'Blended Fund Investments' and a Large/Mid/Small Cap option.

Thanks for the clarification on Money Market. I've got a lot of reading to do.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 20, 2020, 07:01:51 AM
I was looking at my plan earlier when I posted this. VMFXX is an option that I have to invest in. It appears that's the only 'Short Term Investments' option I have. All of the options in my plan are some type of Vanguard. Then there's the smattering of 'Blended Fund Investments' and a Large/Mid/Small Cap option.

Thanks for the clarification on Money Market. I've got a lot of reading to do.

David had a thread about investing for dummies... took me looking through 5 pages of posts.... http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=61339.msg729790#msg729790

I have not read back through it to see if it would help here, but it might give some ideas
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on March 20, 2020, 04:27:52 PM
It's probably too late to actually respond to this. I really doubt the ability of the average person to respond not for lack of wisdom or financial knowledge but because the quick trades just aren't there if you're not on it almost 24/7. People like me who do it all the time made some quick money in the VIX, VXX, and ultrashort positions but most people don't play with these kind of vehicles. Not that you couldn't wrap your head around them but without the time dedicated to them it's very hard to play in that game.

On the other hand, if you want to grab your pitchfork and head to Moscow on the Potomac and tar and feather all the senators who used their insider information to sell out of positions... I'm right there with you. May they rot in Hell for putting personal wealth ahead of one single hospital bed.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Chemsoldier on March 20, 2020, 06:05:26 PM
I have multiple friends and family members laid off for this.

On the positive side, the governor of the state of Colorado is now allowing the businesses still open for curbside service to serve alcohol as part of it.  So if you are going to Chilis for pick-up you can get your margarita with it.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: theBINKYhunter on March 22, 2020, 08:40:06 AM
I'm very curious to see what is going to happen to the economy through this. People are out of work and business are out of making money (not all, but more than a little). I'm fortunate that I can work from home and my company is not impacted by this yet, and unless it gets much much worse we probably won't be. My wife is also able to work as shes and RN and just accepted a job with an in home hospice agency. We know others who aren't able to work and the moment 'non essential businesses' are told to close for good we'll see a lot of people locally suffering.

My wife's friends are freaking out continually. They've got a group chat that my wife checks from time to time and I wish she wouldn't because it just works her up. Some of them can't accept factual data for what it is and continue to spread sensationalized rumors and half truths around. Apparently one of them has a family member in the financial world who is telling them to pull all of their money out of the banks to get cash. No reasoning to back it up, just to do it. I'm not calling it a bad idea, but there's not reasoning to back it up that I've heard, and I feel like it's just them being afraid and wanting to have control over something (like the run on TP).

Edit to clarify:
I can understand if they were talking about investment accounts because of market fluctuations like my post asked a couple prior to this, but I can't see a reason to dump your savings account and shove it in your pillow since that's not going to fluctuate. The problem is there was no clarification or details given, which lends me to lean more towards the 'fear mongering' explanation than something that was reasonable and thought out.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Chemsoldier on March 22, 2020, 09:14:14 AM
I'm very curious to see what is going to happen to the economy through this. People are out of work and business are out of making money (not all, but more than a little). I'm fortunate that I can work from home and my company is not impacted by this yet, and unless it gets much much worse we probably won't be. My wife is also able to work as shes and RN and just accepted a job with an in home hospice agency. We know others who aren't able to work and the moment 'non essential businesses' are told to close for good we'll see a lot of people locally suffering.

My wife's friends are freaking out continually. They've got a group chat that my wife checks from time to time and I wish she wouldn't because it just works her up. Some of them can't accept factual data for what it is and continue to spread sensationalized rumors and half truths around. Apparently one of them has a family member in the financial world who is telling them to pull all of their money out of the banks to get cash. No reasoning to back it up, just to do it. I'm not calling it a bad idea, but there's not reasoning to back it up that I've heard, and I feel like it's just them being afraid and wanting to have control over something (like the run on TP).

Edit to clarify:
I can understand if they were talking about investment accounts because of market fluctuations like my post asked a couple prior to this, but I can't see a reason to dump your savings account and shove it in your pillow since that's not going to fluctuate. The problem is there was no clarification or details given, which lends me to lean more towards the 'fear mongering' explanation than something that was reasonable and thought out.

Yeah, its bizarre.  People who are relatively stable on liquid assets, some are freaking and trying to pull long term investments and not only convert to cash but to physical cash.  But some of the articles telling people not to do it could be read as saying people should not be pulling substantial cash for contingencies.  People who dont have a decent chunk of their monthly retail expenses (or more) in cash at home are wrong and need to fix themselves...but people dipping into funds they didnt plan on touching for decades yet who are not otherwise hurting financially are fools.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on March 25, 2020, 03:57:05 PM
3 month government bond yields fell to a negative interest rate. Wall Street is lining up to lose money provided it's predictable.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on March 25, 2020, 09:25:09 PM
my county and at least one other by us has declared that no one can be evicted for failure to pay rent.  They would love it if banks would be as nice to landlords who need to pay mortgages and loans, but so far, no indication that will happen.  Our county property tax is due early April, and I also notice that they are not given deference on that.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: FreeLancer on March 25, 2020, 09:37:40 PM
I think Newsom announced today there was some kind of deal with several large banks to defer mortgage payments of Californians who could adequately prove COVID-19 hardship.


I've got a huge pile of taxes (property, state, federal, and estimated) all coming due next month and finally just decided to bite the bullet and pay them on time rather than deferring.


A million Californian's have filed for unemployment in the last two weeks.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on March 25, 2020, 10:53:02 PM
I paid my property tax early in case I get sick, would hate to have it get late payments while I was in the hospital or something, and I had already set the money aside.

But, it will be very hard on landlords not receiving rent to pay the kinds of property taxes we have here in California if they are low on rental income.  Luckily this property tax payment due now should have had the money set aside from previous months income, as it is basically due now

Rentals are very common here, lots of people have small rentals on their property or converted garages, etc..., helping make payments and taxes on their homes. 

One such person I know wondered, well, even if the 1st mortgage was deferred, what about the 2nd ?  For many that 2nd mortgage, used to build the rental, well that needs to get paid too.

Yeah, my area has been decimated for many categories of jobs.  Higher education and tourism were paying the bills for most, in one way or the other. But, the small business owner who has had to close doors on the new bar, whose house has the rental in what was once the garage trying to pay the first and 2nd mortgage on a 900k 2 bedroom bugalow with a mortgaged garage conversion,  that loss of rental income from the laid off waiter or what have you is just the last straw.  The property taxes alone on that place ....
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on March 25, 2020, 11:45:25 PM
This is all real connected.  Sure, there are landlords in that business of being a landlord, but around here that is not the main market, so much of the rental market is "granny units" or new younger homeowners that havent had kids yet renting out rooms.  Other people have air b n bs at their place or hip camping, etc...

 This is very common.  Not "rich" landlords, but just how many people make this kind of expensive housing market work.  All of these regular people will now be in financial straits even if they have not lost their primary income But, in addition, many will have lost one or both persons income, most households are two income households.  It isnt just some renters may not have money to pay, it is also that there is alot of turnover in the housing market.  Seasonal tourism.  College scheduales. And all of that is gone or up in the air.  No one can plan. No one is going to enter a lease, for housing or business.

I just think we are going to be going into a depression, and I do not see how helicopter money is going to stop that.  Unless this is over very fast. 

Next will be trades people also not hired and the repairs not done. Also, who is going to buy the art ?

The only ones with the cush guaranteed incomes and pensions are public employees,government and education, and I do hope that other people besides me wake up soon and notice.  You just cant keep having such a disparity.  I went to call my congresspersons office today, and I get a message saying they cant answer their phones due to the virus.  Well, a private company would have those calls routed to an employees home to talk to clients if that employee was working at home.  These people are working at home but no longer have to do as much work.  Wether they do work or not, they are at home being paid.

Yes, I see all the people not working, and of course unemployment claims up.  And all the shadow income ( resellers at flea markets and online, illegal rental income, drugs, undeclared handyman and groundskeeping and cleaning, etc...) dried up as well, that doesnt get unemployment, but their bills will also be there. 

 Even the people who work for some large company that are now doing good, they get to work remotely and draw pay.  But, if the rest aren't going to be buying, the layoffs will radiate outwards.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: theBINKYhunter on March 26, 2020, 08:09:31 AM
I was reading that if you're considering requesting deferment you need to look at what will happen after the period is over. One of the scarier things could be a loan modification would could mean all sorts of things, like a worse interest rate or a balloon payment for everything that was deferred. Other considerations would be if interest still accrued, or if the deferred payments were just added on to the back end of the loan.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: FreeLancer on March 26, 2020, 08:48:15 AM
3.3 million filed for unemployment last week in the US.  Previous record was just under 700k set in 1982.

The true number is quite a bit higher because many workers aren’t eligible for unemployment.

At least a million more are anticipated to file this week.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: suzysurvivor on March 26, 2020, 09:00:07 AM
for several years, financial geniuses who LOOOOOVE Disneyworld have advised folks to put their vacation savings into Disney gift cards--coz you save a WHOLE 5%.  (not to say saving a buck is a bad thing for sure)  And I keep tellin 'em, 'don't put that money on a gift card you can only spend in one place.  What if something happens and you need that money?'

Oh, i have been cursed and vilified for suggesting this.  They are, BY GOD, going to Disneyworld.

Except now they aren't.  And one girl on FB posted yesterday:  'i paid for $23,000 worth of cruises with gift cards.  Now I need the money back. Please tell me they won't just put it back on a gift card'.  Oh, but, yes, they will.

Tried to tell the idiots.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Stwood on March 26, 2020, 09:03:14 AM
3.3 million filed for unemployment last week in the US.  Previous record was just under 700k set in 1982.

The true number is quite a bit higher because many workers aren’t eligible for unemployment.

At least a million more are anticipated to file this week.

Wheew. That ought to break the states.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: FreeLancer on March 26, 2020, 09:25:19 AM
WaPo (no paywall):  Calculate how much you’ll get from the $1,200 (or more) coronavirus checks  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/coronavirus-stimulus-check-calculator/?itid=hp_hp-bignews3_calculator-130am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans)

Quote
Bipartisan legislation passed by the Senate on Wednesday evening — which still must be passed by the House — would provide $1,200 payments to adults with annual incomes up to $75,000, plus another $500 per child. Some Americans earning more over $75,000 would also receive money if they meet certain qualifications outlined below. For most Americans, the money is likely to arrive in April via direct deposit. Mailed checks may take longer.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: theBINKYhunter on March 26, 2020, 09:34:49 AM
I guess ours will stay in savings until needed.

Interesting bit about future tax implications. Seems like only rare edge cases will have to pay back a portion of it, and if you find yourself in that situation you're probably not terribly upset because it means you're making more money.

Quote
Are the checks taxable? No, they are not taxable. The only catch is that technically a person’s 2020 income is what qualifies them for the payment. Since no one knows their total 2020 income yet, the government is using tax returns from 2019 and 2018 to figure out who qualifies for a check. It is possible that someone may have to pay back some of the money if his or her income this year turns out to be significantly more than it was in 2019 or 2018. That’s expected to be a relatively small share of people, and the money would not have to be paid back until April 15, 2021.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on March 26, 2020, 10:32:11 AM
WaPo (no paywall):  Calculate how much you’ll get from the $1,200 (or more) coronavirus checks  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/coronavirus-stimulus-check-calculator/?itid=hp_hp-bignews3_calculator-130am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans)


This will not apply to so, so many people.  Which is why aid that the county hands out is so important, but there is only so much food that people need.  No-one will go hungery in this county, that isnt the issue, it is the loans, rents, mortages, co-pays, and other expenses.  We hand out food all over the place.  Homeless hot meals, food giveaways normally and now schools of course giving away just a ton of food daily for kids whose familys drive by, that is in addition to the food stamps they are getting.  The other food giveaways do not care or check on income, as the only way a family is on food stamps out here is they are homeless or not declaring income, so many people can be house-poor, meaning after paying 60% and up of income to rent or mortgage there is more month than money.

People that earn to little to pay taxes will not get anything, last I heard.  The devil is in the details.   

And, I dont think this is a federal problem, it is a state or county problem, the counties should know what is what and who will need help. How the counties could ever give the help is another matter.  I think maybe thru the unemployment system with different emergency rules and interviews locally.

For example, lose your rental income, no compensation because either it wasnt declared or the amount netted after expenses wasnt enough to get over the standard deduction amount so you filed no income tax.  Because your social security check is also not on the tax form.  This is common. That's how many senior citizens out here make expenses.

Alot of people work under the table, too, at least for part of income . Not saying they should, but it is not uncommon.  Usually it is to keep benefits, like state healthcare or subsidized childcare. And, I disagree with that, but I have heard about it.  I told a handyman last month, as I handed him a benjamin, " you know, if you dont declare or declare enough you are not going to get a very big social security check later as it is calculated by what you pay into it "  he sees that, for the moment at least , he will pay for this later in his future lifestyle.  But he has kids now.

Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Prepper456 on March 26, 2020, 11:49:50 AM

This will not apply to so, so many people.  Which is why aid that the county hands out is so important, but there is only so much food that people need.

isn't that socialism?
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on March 26, 2020, 12:04:55 PM
isn't that socialism?

Not sure what you are referring to

temporary help due to unprecendented need due to the state government cutting off peoples livelyhood ( not judging if that is or is not needed to slow virus transmission down) is not socialism.  Now, the details of what our government is wanting to do to give money to corporations begins to look like facism.

The normal food giveaways in this county ?  Well, if people want to donate money or stores and farms want to donate excess food,  that just sounds like charity and not socialism. 

Other aid that counties could hand out, like money, relief for those who dont get or dont get enough unemployment  -- that would be temporary, and I have not heard that they have money to do so, but if they did, that is just a temporary payment to ensure welfare and not losing housing. 

Dont get me wrong, there are plenty out here who think socialism sounds good  --- but I am not sure what  post you feel is socialism. 
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Chemsoldier on March 26, 2020, 12:09:21 PM

People that earn to little to pay taxes will not get anything, last I heard.  The devil is in the details.   



From the Washpost article linked (it has been un-paywalled)

"What about people on Social Security? People on Social Security are eligible to receive the coronavirus relief payment as long as their total income does not exceed the limit. Low-income Americans on Social Security do not need to file a tax return. As long as they received an SSA-1099 form (the Social Security benefit statement), the federal government will be able to send them a payment via the usual way they get their Social Security payment. Retirees and people on disability are both eligible for the special payment. "

"Who won’t get a check? The main people excluded from receiving a payment are the wealthy, “nonresident aliens” (i.e., foreigners who do not hold a green card) and “dependents” who can be claimed on someone else’s tax return."

"Are the checks taxable? No, they are not taxable. The only catch is that technically a person’s 2020 income is what qualifies them for the payment. Since no one knows their total 2020 income yet, the government is using tax returns from 2019 and 2018 to figure out who qualifies for a check. It is possible that someone may have to pay back some of the money if his or her income this year turns out to be significantly more than it was in 2019 or 2018. That’s expected to be a relatively small share of people, and the money would not have to be paid back until April 15, 2021. "
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on March 26, 2020, 12:32:26 PM
From the Washpost article linked (it has been un-paywalled)

"What about people on Social Security? People on Social Security are eligible to receive the coronavirus relief payment as long as their total income does not exceed the limit. Low-income Americans on Social Security do not need to file a tax return. As long as they received an SSA-1099 form (the Social Security benefit statement), the federal government will be able to send them a payment via the usual way they get their Social Security payment. Retirees and people on disability are both eligible for the special payment. "

"Who won’t get a check? The main people excluded from receiving a payment are the wealthy, “nonresident aliens” (i.e., foreigners who do not hold a green card) and “dependents” who can be claimed on someone else’s tax return."

"Are the checks taxable? No, they are not taxable. The only catch is that technically a person’s 2020 income is what qualifies them for the payment. Since no one knows their total 2020 income yet, the government is using tax returns from 2019 and 2018 to figure out who qualifies for a check. It is possible that someone may have to pay back some of the money if his or her income this year turns out to be significantly more than it was in 2019 or 2018. That’s expected to be a relatively small share of people, and the money would not have to be paid back until April 15, 2021. "

well that is a good change, they originally didnt have a provision for social security.  That will take care of alot if the people with low incone
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on March 26, 2020, 03:09:44 PM
It sounds like the unemployment benefits, which are state programs, are being very generously added to by the federal stimulus money, which makes me wonder even more why the rush to have renters out here so easily stop paying rent, except that a certain segment of people here dont care much about private property rights, it just seems premature, and now, see, the unemployment for the low income earners should be about what they had when employed, dont see how they could not meet rent.  Now, small business and commercial rents, that will be a problem

Quote
The $2 trillion stimulus package will pay workers $600 a week on top of whatever sum they receive in their state-level unemployment claim for a period of up to four months, according to provisions in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.

Quote
The CARES Act will cover unemployment payments for both jobless self-employed workers and independent contractors.


Many states typically have what’s called a “waiting week” between the time a person files a jobless claim and when they start receiving unemployment benefits.

The CARE Act says the federal government will pay the cost of that first “waiting week” so people can have quick access to cash, according to an analysis from Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa, a Republican.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-2-trillion-stimulus-deal-will-help-those-filing-unemployment-claims-heres-how-2020-03-26?mod=article_inline
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 27, 2020, 05:41:15 PM
Trump has drafted General Motors to make ventilators.

3/27/20: Statement from the President Regarding the Defense Production Act (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-regarding-defense-production-act/)

Quote
Today, I signed a Presidential Memorandum directing the Secretary of Health and Human Services to use any and all authority available under the Defense Production Act to require General Motors to accept, perform, and prioritize Federal contracts for ventilators.  Our negotiations with GM regarding its ability to supply ventilators have been productive, but our fight against the virus is too urgent to allow the give-and-take of the contracting process to continue to run its normal course.  GM was wasting time.  Today’s action will help ensure the quick production of ventilators that will save American lives.

3/27/20: Memorandum on Order Under the Defense Production Act Regarding General Motors Company (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/memorandum-order-defense-production-act-regarding-general-motors-company/)

Quote
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended (50 U.S.C. 4501 et seq.) (the “Act”), it is hereby ordered as follows: ...

Sec. 2.  Presidential Direction to the Secretary of Health and Human Services (Secretary).  The Secretary shall use any and all authority available under the Act to require General Motors Company to accept, perform, and prioritize contracts or orders for the number of ventilators that the Secretary determines to be appropriate. ...
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: FreeLancer on March 27, 2020, 07:20:00 PM
So much for the free market solution......
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Carver on March 28, 2020, 08:24:28 AM
Traveling & RVing: https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-03-27/rv-companies-coronavirus-business (https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-03-27/rv-companies-coronavirus-business)
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on March 28, 2020, 08:45:06 AM
Chef Thomas Keller was the first (to my knowledge) to sue his insurance because depending on where you sit this type of event could be covered. There's going to be a lot of murky legaleze untangling exactly what the role of insurance right now is.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on March 29, 2020, 11:27:04 AM
You can fly round trip NYC to LA for $65.

I took a little solace from Gene Epstein who has made a point that all the businesses suffering right now aren't bad businesses but suffering a cash flow problem so if they can get creditors and landlords to float for a while we might see a quick recovery. Maybe some good economic news.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: FreeLancer on March 29, 2020, 04:42:03 PM
President Trump says federal guidance urging social distancing will stay in place through April 30. He backed off his hope that the country will be “opened up” by Easter Sunday, saying that deaths due to the coronavirus will likely peak in two weeks. ”Nothing would be worse than declaring victory before the victory is won," he said.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on March 31, 2020, 12:27:17 PM
Article on the BS stimulus, how it was a procedure blunder, all the pork, and how Pelosi got another one past the GOP.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/30/how-republicans-helped-nancy-pelosi-pass-another-unexamined-pork-stuffed-stimulus/

There are some interesting things that will come out of this, too. In my life the industries the highest regulated and tied to the state have all been the ones to blow up. Whether it's banking, housing, medicine, war, (soon to be education) it's all the stuff we hand to the government that go wrong. I hope in some aftermath we can assess exactly how the CDC bungled the tests while the FDA forbade private development. And then we need to use a war powers act to let non-FDA approved manufacturers make life saving equipment they could have been doing 4 months ago. What's the cost of banning the private sector, having a rush-rush throw money from helicopters bailout, and a mad scramble to cobble together supplies?

I am  curious if our society could manage to eliminate and streamline red tape to cut costs. It's the tiniest example but eliminating open container laws is telling. Granted it took a global disaster to realize letting people walk around with a beer is fine. But maybe we could take a knife to the legal code more  generally. It's a hope.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: surfivor on March 31, 2020, 07:33:29 PM
On a recent listener call back, Jack was saying someone he talked to had a mortgage deferment for 12 months without having to prove a hardship

I saw that they recently passed Care Act that seems to mandate something of that sort for mortgages that are insured by the federal government

However, the way jack described it it sounded as if you could just suspend all mortgage payments though that sounds too good to be true. It seems to me rather that you would have to pay a giant lump sum after the 12 months to make up for the deferment which why would he promote that as a great idea ? I am really not sure what it all means

https://www.edwardjones.com/market-news-guidance/guidance/cares-act-highlights.html

“Mortgage Relief for Homeowners: Requires the servicers of federally backed mortgages to postpone mortgage payments at the request of the borrower, provided the borrower affirms financial hardship due to COVID-19. The postponement must be granted for up to 180 days and extended for an additional period of up to 180 days at the request of the borrower
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: FreeLancer on April 09, 2020, 09:04:08 AM
So my wife’s medical center is losing money every day they’re in pandemic mode. Like in 2008, it’s likely that pay cuts are coming. My wife is worried that some of her team could be considered nonessential and fired, or have their pay cut so severely they couldn’t survive. 

She asked me how long we could pay the household bills if she were to forego her salary in order to keep her team intact.  Great....
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Mr. Bill on April 13, 2020, 03:42:26 PM
So my wife’s medical center is losing money every day they’re in pandemic mode. Like in 2008, it’s likely that pay cuts are coming. ...

A friend in Montana posted this.  I assume it's representative of many other hospitals across the country:

4/13/20: Hundreds of furloughs possible at Kalispell Regional Healthcare (https://www.kpax.com/news/coronavirus/hundreds-of-furloughs-planned-at-kalispell-regional-healthcare)

Quote
...KRH has boosted its COVID-19 clinical teams, support staff and resources needed to deliver life-saving care and ensure patient and staff safety as a result of the pandemic, according to a news release. However, many other services at KRH have been halted, contributing to a significant decline in revenue.

“The compounding effect of the loss of patient volumes, cancellation of elective surgeries, and the closure of entire service lines has had a tremendous financial impact on KRH,” said KRH President and CEO Craig Lambrecht, M.D. ...

KRH executives, physicians and executive directors will be taking reductions to their salaries effective immediately. Additionally, KRH will begin furloughing and reducing the hours and shifts for certain employees. According to a news release, the furloughs could impact about 600 employees. ...
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on April 20, 2020, 03:33:25 PM
Oil is, for the first time ever, pricing negative. There is so much supply and so little demand we have run out of room to store it. For the first time since the invention of the internal combustion engine striking oil is a bad thing.

We are literally pricing the motive power of the world as though it were a cost not a commodity.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/oil-drops-18-low-global-222817793.html

Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Carver on April 20, 2020, 05:24:42 PM
It is not inconceivable that you will be paying only taxes on gas you pump.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: surfivor on April 22, 2020, 04:46:36 PM

 What is the upside and downside of selling say microgreens or greens in this type of situation ? I've never tried anything like that but if you call some restaurant and try to pitch greens they may say "call back after the lockdown is over" do you think ? They may be doing takeout but maybe that is reduced and maybe they don't want to deal with new people or maybe they would ? Maybe in the new screwed up world you can't just grow greens in your house and sell them because maybe the government or someone will think it's risky ?
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on April 23, 2020, 08:06:42 AM
Try not to pop a lung laughing at AOC's tweets. Gasoline is near free which is evidence that we need green energy. It's like when you go to the grocer on a budget and turn down the free potatoes in order to buy organic kale.

The market is telling me to buy a V8 and she, with an economics degree, thinks it's the end of oil. I will cut a check to keep that dummy talking.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on April 25, 2020, 10:04:08 AM
Well, our ( CA ) Governor and others in power, our hard at work miss-using our federal disaster money.  This made me twitchy last evening when I heard. 

The plan is to use FEMA money to buy prepared meals from resteraunts to deliver to low income, "at risk" seniors.  But, the details.....

we already HAVE a robust system that is delivering meals to seniors, meals on wheels, who does it at low cost, and we already have extra Federal $$ being sent that way.  In addition, extra Fed $$ in the form of USDA foods and extra Food Stamp benefit amounts ( all benefits now raised to the maximum for family size, meaning, for example, a family size of one person will get $194, it will not be reduced due to income) are here .  I have a friend who works at the local food distribution site, no questions asked about income, drive up, pick up generous amounts of food weekly.  Locally we have a different program delivering free food  bags weekly to seniors homes, in addition to meals on wheels.  If there are any holes in these methods in any locations, then of course, we should be fill them.  We even have had very locally for the past 6 weeks a completely volunteer weekly meal delivery to any household who asks, completely grass roots, social media organized, and this is of course very cost effective --- but we are not giving them tax payer funded food or money to buy the food ( well, not necessarily, they may go to the weekly distribution to get food, or maybe they havent thought of that ? ) !

So, the details on Californias new program.  Resteraunt food at up to $28 a person for dinner, up to $66 a day for all 3 meals !!  Paid for out of FEMA funds ( well, 75% paid out of FEMA funds, 19% state funds, rest county funds) All the people suffering from various emergencies over the years, fires, storms, floods who had losses, unpaid losses, but we fund a total boondoggle like this ?  Oh, he says it is a 3-for.  (1) We get the sales tax for state/county/cities who miss is, and in California this is just about total of 10%  in the areas who would implement.  So, 10% just goes back into government coffers. (2) bail out certain resteraunts by giving them more business  (3) The optics are great, we are bringing more meals to low income seniors

The optics to me are, we are spending money that dos not realy exist that we do not need to spend.  And this is just the one we are hearing about ! What I see is, what are we doing ?  What do they think is going to be our future -- not cost effective solutions, but do the MOST costly solution, with tax payer money debt obligations. 

The economics, the change in Society, these are the scary parts of this time.   I would rather the illness

Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on April 25, 2020, 01:53:42 PM
Oh, how about how goofy it is that I need to mail seeds to friends in Michigan? Because their idiot governor decided that the state lottery was needed but seeds were banned. So people who are trapped at home can't even busy themselves with a victory garden, an American tradition.

I agree, MM. It seems like the schemers have upped their game.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on April 25, 2020, 05:24:07 PM
More on the California resteraunt rescue

Quote
California has about 5.7 million people 65 and older and it's not known precisely how many will be eligible, though Newsom said he expects it will be millions. To qualify, seniors must earn below 600% of the federal poverty level, which is $74,940 for an individual and $154,500 for a family of four. They also must have either been exposed to the virus, have a high risk for exposure or a compromised immune system.

A qualifying senior will get up to $66 per day for three meals at local restaurants that meet certain criteria. If 2 million people sign up and get all three meals a day, the price tag would be about $4 billion per month.

The federal government will pay for 75% of the cost

It will be 2 million people easily, so that is $4billion dollars a month, 75% out of Federal Funds, FEMA, for a single person making as much as $75,000 a year -- How is that even low income ? Gov. Newsom is going all out on spending his way to popularity, he is also ambitious for more than being Governor here.  First he's giving taxpayer money to illegal aliens, and now prepared food for people who can afford to feed themselves

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/taxpayers-pay-restaurants-feed-seniors-221100347.html
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Carver on May 14, 2020, 11:38:24 AM
Quote
Hertz Cancels 90% Of New Car Purchases, Further Pressuring Already Desperate Automakers
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/hertz-cancels-90-new-car-purchases-further-pressuring-already-desperate-automakers (https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/hertz-cancels-90-new-car-purchases-further-pressuring-already-desperate-automakers)
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: surfivor on May 15, 2020, 12:03:21 PM
Good, job ! Stay home, stay safe !

https://www.westernjournal.com/music-store-owner-weeps-whitmers-lockdown-forces-give-dreams/?fbclid=IwAR2pWNjwCdpGh4vPqgI37h2jI5_YtzmMg8Tn4NamQEzUYKCN3VNe3DVHpEM

A Michigan man with a passion for music and teaching children has seen his life’s work wiped away with the stroke of a pen by Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Steve Walker, the owner of Walker Music & Textiles Co. in Hastings, Michigan, wept as he spoke with WXMI-TV during a recent interview in which he said Michigan’s lockdown order had forced him and his wife out of business.

...


Walker blamed Whitmer directly for killing his dream.

“I put the responsibility of that on the governor’s shoulders because if she had been reasonable, this would not be happening,” he said. “But oh well. That’s the way it is. That’s life. And I have to move on and deal with it.”

The musician and soon-to-be-former businessman also made it clear he never wanted anything from his government but his right to the pursuit of happiness, which he has been denied, thanks to Whitmer’s lockdown order.

“I don’t want a stupid handout from the government, I want my hands untied so I can work,” he said.

Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Carver on May 17, 2020, 10:25:22 AM
Quote
Pandemic claims another retailer: 118-year-old J.C. Penney

https://www.news8000.com/pandemic-claims-another-retailer-118-year-old-j-c-penney/ (https://www.news8000.com/pandemic-claims-another-retailer-118-year-old-j-c-penney/)
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Stwood on May 17, 2020, 10:43:35 AM

Such a shame. They've apparently been circling the drain for several years now.

Mr Penny has probably turned over in his grave several times.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Morning Sunshine on May 17, 2020, 10:59:03 AM
small ballroom dance studio my son attended has shut its doors.  Not a big deal nationally, but locally, it was where our kids learned formal dancing.  And this mom & pop shop that has spent the last 15 years teaching and loving our kids is gone.  And so is their dream.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: surfivor on May 18, 2020, 11:19:43 PM

This article says Maine might shut libraries because of fiscal issues related to the virus , that is not a good sign. For me, I sometimes need to do interviews and job searches from the libraries in Maine or occasionally work online

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/05/12/politics/local-budgets-in-maine-are-seeing-massive-shortfalls-federal-help-remains-uncertain/

Maine cities and towns are facing the prospect of massive budget shortfalls that would force them to substantially cut services while federal relief aimed at making up for revenue lost due to the coronavirus remains up for debate in Washington.
..

If federal aid does not come through, it is difficult to say where cuts would come, said Gove, though libraries, parks and recreation might be among the first programs cut. As the shortfall continues, that puts more pressure on property taxes to cover essential services, such as public safety, waste disposal and road maintenance.

“How bad it could get is an open question,” Gove said.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on May 19, 2020, 01:32:35 PM
Interesting to see the extent of consumer change.
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i1fuxl1ys6jg/v1/pidjEfPlU1QWZop3vfGKsrX.ke8XuWirGYh1PKgEw44kE/1000x-1.png)

(https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/04/PG_2020.04.21_U.S.-Views-China_0-01.png?w=640)

(https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/04/PG_2020.04.21_U.S.-Views-China_0-02.png)

Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Carver on May 19, 2020, 02:23:45 PM
Very interesting, just temporary?
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on May 19, 2020, 02:33:55 PM
Very interesting, just temporary?

Depends on how they respond.  If they become a more open society like South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan then they will quickly find a friend in the American people.  If they continue with the dystopian closed society; acting irresponsibly internationally like denying the origin and extent of this virus, then they will become pariahs and plummet back into poverty.  The choice is theirs to make.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Carver on May 19, 2020, 04:16:07 PM
I was questioning whether American's resolve will dissolve as the virus and times goes by.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on May 19, 2020, 04:38:12 PM
I was questioning whether American's resolve will dissolve as the virus and times goes by.

Doubtful.  This pandemic is just the tip of the iceberg.  Younger generations have seen their treatment of Tibet and censorship in movies and games.The older generations have seen their treatment of Hong Kong and religious groups as well as industrial espionage.  So they have few defenders in the West outside of some paid for politicians and bureaurats.  The goodwill fostered by Jiang Zemin's "opening up and reform" has been squandered by Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping.  American sentiment will just harden if, as the investigation proceeds, Xi continues sabor rattling.  And remember, Chinese goods are now more expensive than many competing markets.  So little economic advantage to work with them.  India is on ascendency, especially given the modernization of their energy sector. 
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Carver on May 19, 2020, 08:15:13 PM
But not all share those sentiments. Take September 11, 2001 for example; not so long afterwards a pro-enemy following developed making accusations of a phobia related to the nationality or religion of those who claimed responsibility. Earlier this year the queen of the House of Representatives marched through Chinatown in S.F. defending China (but these were Americans of Chinese descent) and any critical take of China then, and now, and will be, is xenophobic hate speech; and they have a very adamant following. I'm not making that up. In between them and that now majority that look unfavorably upon China and their goods is a vast percentage that only temporarily care and will before long not give a rat's ass. There are very lively discussions amongst preppers over the boycott or buy China topic.

China isn't going away anymore than Nazi's went away when Germany lost WWII or Stalinism went away when the Soviet Union collapsed. China will suffer but China will adapt and apply force through their tentacles that pervade western capitalism and technology. They own our pork processing facilities, they have major stakes in sports, in U.S. and European technology and have a tradition of long term planning. Whereas we look to the next election they look towards the next 100 years.

Instead of making boycotting China our strategy, we should focus on dismantling globalism, the Trojan horse of communism. We need to take a serious look at ourselves and what we need and ask "why can't we make this here?" and then do it.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: surfivor on May 20, 2020, 09:56:21 AM

Various other lawsuits are mentioned in the article below

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/05/18/business/campgrounds-and-restaurant-owners-sue-janet-mills-over-14-day-quarantine-rule/

Owners of campgrounds and restaurants in southern Maine have sued Gov. Janet Mills for imposing a 14-day quarantine for out-of-state travelers coming here. The lawsuit seeks an injunction to lift the requirement.

Three residents of Maine and New Hampshire also are plaintiffs — they claim the quarantine rule violates their constitutional right to travel freely within the United States.

..

“So, although the governor has publicly acknowledged that she lacks the authority to close the Maine border, the quarantine restrictions effectively do just that,” attorneys Gene Libby and Tyler Smith, both of Kennebunk, said in the lawsuit.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: surfivor on June 01, 2020, 06:17:48 PM

 I studied Thai Chi and Kung Fu off and on at a martial arts studio in my area for many years. The sifu there is very accomplished teacher who grew up in Chinatown and has been on the cover of Thai Chi magazine. I got an email that due to the covid situation he is having severe financial problems. He had only recently rented more space and had increased some fees to cover it but he can't hold classes anymore.

Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on July 06, 2020, 11:36:43 AM
So State Farm lowered auto insurance premiums again because of drop in driving and therefore accidents.  Ours dropped by 60% in total.  At this rate they will soon be paying us!
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Stwood on July 06, 2020, 01:42:07 PM
So State Farm lowered auto insurance premiums again because of drop in driving and therefore accidents.  Ours dropped by 60% in total.  At this rate they will soon be paying us!

They could lower mine anytime.....I haven't heard zip from them about lowering mine.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on July 06, 2020, 01:49:44 PM
They could lower mine anytime.....I haven't heard zip from them about lowering mine.

It varies by state and timing was determined by when bill was due.. But you should have received something as it started in late March!  You should call your agent.  Here is the FAQ: https://newsroom.statefarm.com/good-neighbor-relief-frequently-asked-questions/#6 (https://newsroom.statefarm.com/good-neighbor-relief-frequently-asked-questions/#6)
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Stwood on July 06, 2020, 04:25:41 PM
Hmmmm yea.
Well, I bought a car and sold another right during all that, and my auto deductions have been kinda screwed up lately. One was way low, last month.
So maybe I just haven't been notified.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on July 29, 2020, 12:22:51 PM
Well, good thing I tightened my belt more, although it was already tight, and planted the much larger garden.

I lost alot of income a couple months ago due to COVID shut down side effects, and it is not looking to turn around. We will see, maybe in a few months.  If they think they can raise taxes in this environment !  Property taxes and homeowners insurance are now just themselves, take  a large chunk of my incoming money.  Those are not "forgiven".  They can defer payments on the mortgage, but the money paid to the government and insurance company stays. Renters are always mentioned, but you dont realy own when the outgo to the government and insurance companies are so high. 

I am fine.  And, I think it will resolve to some type of plateu new normal by the new year, resolve at least for another while.  I need nothing.  Im a prepper.  I could even cut off utilities entirely and live fine, but it wont come to that, my solar is large enough to pump water and power the refrigerator.  I heat with wood.  I even have those tattler lids if I run out of canning jar flats....

I think that many in the general public do not know to move as swiftly when the signs are there.  And the 2nd order effects of that could spill over to us all too.

News says that the downtown area of one of the small cities ( less than 50k people) in this county has lost 13 store front businesses, that city is dependent on University and Tourists.





Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Stwood on July 29, 2020, 04:49:33 PM
Sounds like you are all prepared MM.  8)

We are basically there, just haven't ever set up to pump water if the grid goes down, or can't pay the elec bill.
I'm working on it though. Thought occurred to me this morning, I need to go visit with the Amish down the road a bit. Several families moved in a couple of years ago and are getting established pretty well.
They've probably set up manual pumps on the wells on the properties they have purchased.

We have a solar setup here, but I need more roof line to put it on. And, it's a grid tied system.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Stwood on July 29, 2020, 04:50:59 PM
Oh. Walmart and Amazon seem to be getting some Augason Farms stock back in.
I've been catching a few cans here and there the last couple of weeks.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on July 29, 2020, 05:52:18 PM
My solar is hybrid, grid tied with some backup, not alot.  For basic needs I dont need alot.  If I cut off utilites, the main change is that I would no longer have a kitchen stove or water heater, as they are 240V.  And no light in the downstairs bathroom... the vageries of the limitations of moving some circuits to the four backed-up circuits that come from the inverter.  The bathroom lights, and one of the living room outlets, seem to be connected in line to the utility room and then garage lights.  All of that is easily worked around, I do it all the time during multi-day power outages.  Just saying, when you come in and put in a retro-fit thing, like limited circuits/amps can be fed from the inverter, and the house was not wired for that, you do what you can.  I have lights everywhere but that one bathroom, and outlets in many spots all over. I usually end up with the toaster and electric kettle plugged in to outlets next to the dining table, which is next to the wood stove.  Realy, if I was a pioneer woman, I would still be just so, so pleased to have electric lights, a refrigerator, and indoor plumbing ( even if it is not heated).  And, so I am pleased now too when I need to step down to that.  I even have solar ovens that heat up food and hot water when it is too hot to run the wood stove -- if I was a pioneer woman, that in itself would be another amazing thing !  I have been practicing some of this lately just to stay limber.  I have been playing how-low-can-you go most days on electric useage, sometimes I forget, to make sure I have the bugs worked out.   I told someone else I was in to play the "turn off utilites for the weekend" this weekend coming up, which includes not using the solar, which will be no problem.  A fun break, like camping.  My water tank will gravity feed the house with the pressure pump off, 48 hours wont harm the fridge food if it stays closed, and I have a solar oven and plenty of easy food.... It does take a bit longer to water the garden that way, and I wont be on the internet, which means I should get lots done, excepting I wont can anything of course on those 2 days.  I do not want to can outdoors on the rocket stove, although another time, I will have to practice that too.

This is all "play" realy, or practice for a real SHTF, the power company only charges me a small monthly fee to be my main battery and 240V supplier, so, we would have to be in a major depression, or I would have to get a few more notches up in being irritated with the power company, before I would unplug.  But, it is nice to know I could. Because either could happen

But, like I said, the problem isnt that I can get by -- the problem is the 2nd order effects from the other people who would freak out
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on July 29, 2020, 06:32:24 PM
Excellent run through of preps, mountainmoma.  You rock.

What type of solor oven are you using? That is a great prep that few have experienced. Fun story, at one of the labs I worked we would have an annual cookout using solor ovens. The fresh buffalo burgers from them were the best burgers I've ever had.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on July 29, 2020, 06:39:53 PM
Excellent run through of preps, mountainmoma.  You rock.

What type of solor oven are you using? That is a great prep that few have experienced. Fun story, at one of the labs I worked we would have an annual cookout using solor ovens. The fresh buffalo burgers from them were the best burgers I've ever had.

I organized a solar cookout in a park some years ago, I was briefly leading a local group, but it wasnt just that group that benefitted, and about 4 of us brought various ovens, it was a very public place so it was a good display for others too. 

I have 2 Sun Ovens, and sun ovens often use stacking pots, so I realy could do alot, but almost always these days I am only running one of them, for multiple uses all day most often.  Like scald the milk to make yogurt, then put in a loaf of bread, then put in dinner main dish, double pan with bottom pan full of water to heat for washing dishes.  This is very good practice and doing more outside is very grounding.  It is like having a summer kitchen, just not fancy.  Keeps from heating up the house too. 

I was using a solar shower for a while, but it was on its last legs, broken shower tip, so I havent this week.  That is an additional nice thing to do, rinse off outside.  And, that also helps to not silt up the septic tank, get that garden dirt off not into house drain pipes. But, I do not find the solar showers to be very durable, and I hate waste.  This one was better than many, but you should never step on the plastic shower head in the garage off season
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on August 01, 2020, 07:07:32 AM
My daughter is slated to start kindergarten in a month. The school district (which is a good one and one of the reasons we f-ing live here) decided they will be open 2 days per week. So we'd be getting 40% service at full price.

This has put us and several other families we know in an interesting bind. Obviously 2 days per week is completely unacceptable. Private schools are filling fast. That's one option and going back to her Montessori is an option. Then there's the homeschool thing and while I think I could deliver a great education focusing on phonics, trivium, quadrivian, Grecko/Roman mythology, and the myriad of hard sciences it still sucks because the COVID fear really takes out other human interaction.

It's a mess right now and we're going to have to out of pocket fix it. Would be nice to see my taxes eased because they aren't providing the service but that will happen when pigs fly.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Stwood on August 01, 2020, 08:52:24 AM

Youngest GD's school is planning that 2-day a week school thing, delayed until second week of August.
It has their parents in a mind bind, wondering wtf to do as they both work.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on August 06, 2020, 12:30:47 PM
How about the abandonment of NYC? I heard the dumbest living human, Bill DeBlasio, comment that he wouldn't open resstaurants until possibly next June because what they are currently doing "is working".

Can we define "working"? NYC was the ground zero of CORONA in the USA with 23,000 deaths. It's also a city that relies heavily on tourism and the arts, both of which are dead. Congratulations, Broadway, we watched Hamilton on Disney+.

As bad as all that is, there is another variable that portents quite worse. The NY Times estimates that about 40% of its wealthiest residents have left the city. It's even tougher to gauge how many younger, less affluent people just packed up for aunt Sue's in Montana. But suffice to say population growth is negative.

Wealthy people aren't dumb. They know that NYC without the dining, arts, and culture is just living in an overpriced hotel room with an unusable kitchen. So why not rent a ranch in Texas or a riverside cottage in Wisconsin? And it's not just them. I suspect that NYC competent waitstaff could be hired at the best restaurants in any city so why not if you know you're waiting until June? Also, there's a big effect in losing the people who dine out. I suspect the price of seafood will fall.

This will be a long, ugly recovery for the city.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Morning Sunshine on August 06, 2020, 07:43:03 PM
My uncle owns a cabinetry business and shop.  He is based in Northern Idaho, and does jobs from from Phoenix to Seattle (with the odd job in Tahiti and Samoa 10 plus years ago to help with the temples there for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints).  They do cabinetry for churches, banks, businesses, schools, etc.

We were up there last week, and my Cousin, J - who works for and mostly runs the business now, was talking about the jobs they are doing.
They are still working, but it is all jobs that were arranged before COVID.  And they are not getting paid as promptly as they were pre-March; they are having to really pound the businesses to get paid.  The church jobs - mostly for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints - have not asked for bids since then.  Not one in the entire Mormon Corridor (That is north to Calgary and south to Phoenix, in a mostly straight line, but also including Vegas).  They are still bidding jobs, but not winning any bids; my aunt - who does the bidding part of the business - was unsure if the companies are not actually contracting with anyone right now (in other words, just pricing a project without plans to actually do it right now) or if my uncle's company is just not winning any bids.

Anecdote but indicative of a commercial construction trend.


ps - in April, my aunt had to make them bandana masks for a job they were doing.  Doesn't that sound funny - they HAD to wear masks to do their Bank Job  ;D
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on August 08, 2020, 08:30:53 AM
Did a quick look at some asset performances versus a year ago.  The US dollar has dropped about 4% relative to basket of other currencies.  Parachuting money will tend to do that.  But many asset classes are still in bull territory making this one of the best investment time periods on record despite (and in some cases, because of) pandemic.  'Old school' prepper investment of gold and silver has been great. It is also interesting to see the gun stock performance given riots, such as Ruger doubling.  And, of course, there is amazon and Zoom driven by the stay-at-home orders.  Net, the last year has provided some really great opportunities for enhancing retirement savings.

DJIA: +4.4%
S&P 500: +14.0%
NASDAQ: +37.0%
Growth Stocks (VWUSX); +41.3%
Long-Term Bond (VBLAX): +14.0%
Short-Term Bond (VBISX): +2.7%
Gold: +35.7%
Silver: +65.8%
Platinum: +11.5%
Copper: +10.0%
Bitcoin: -2.9%
Bitcoin Cash: -8.0%
Sturm, Ruger & Company: +99.9%
Amazon.com: +72.7%
Zoom: +174.0%
US Dollar Index (DXY): -4.1%

Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: mountainmoma on August 09, 2020, 11:24:24 PM
Anectodotal, but in answer to what DaveMN is saying about young people leaving cities.

1) one is relation, 30something couple, were living in SF, engaged, good paying corporate jobs.  Had to put off large wedding, so did a civil wedding, went to his midwest families digs to wait out the virus, he is working remote at teh moment still, her job is gone entirely, so they will start a family since she's out of work anyways.  So, went from SF 2 hgh income yuppy lifestyle to midwest, traditional young family just-like-that

2) One of my offsprings friends.  The 22year old new college grad had landed a job in Boston, COVID hit so never has worked on site, but at the moment working remote.  Older sibling of this new grad had been living in NYC with boyfriend for some years now.  They both decided to hit out to his families land in Texas, new grad leaves Boston to join them.  No more NYC or Boston, it is a lake in Texas somewheres. 
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on August 10, 2020, 06:21:50 AM
No kidding. There is so much construction here from demand from people moving that there is no lumber in any of the stores.  Orders are backlogged at least two weeks.  Concrete prices are up double from last year this time.  Wealthy people who have Summer homes on golf courses and lakes have moved in permanently and enrolled their kids in school. Parochial schools opened last week and government schools open this week.  We essentially added a five thousand family city and it just keeps going
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on August 11, 2020, 07:12:52 AM
Well we are learning about what industries were rotten "on the vine".

Took a Reason podcast for me to realize I haven't worn a suit since January. Might not sound like a lot but I have a penchant for mens' neckwear and adore my bowties and cravats. Basically I have 2 looks: Snazzy out on the town or pretty much homeless in sweatpants. I'm not alone and the fashion industry is taking a beating. Turns out Manolo Blahniks aren't good for the end of days and while we "need" our garden boots and I'm sure Carhartt is doing good the 4 fashion shows per year determining the look of the next season are gone.

Same story with film. Netflix and Amazon are pushing out content but the big film operations are being choked. Don't hold your breath for the next big blockbuster because the budgets are being decimated.

Perhaps the most glaring is the education industry. I don't know about your public school but mine is trying to convince me that they are not "necessary" and can do a full time job in 2 days per week. Right now young parents are frustrated and trying to seek a good education for the kids but as this sinks in they might realize that 60% of their 15,000 hours were admittedly superfluous. Not my opinion; that's the word of the teachers' unions.

Start looking around. Lots of industries are getting tossed.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on August 11, 2020, 10:40:21 AM
Took a Reason podcast for me to realize I haven't worn a suit since January. Might not sound like a lot but I have a penchant for mens' neckwear and adore my bowties and cravats. Basically I have 2 looks: Snazzy out on the town or pretty much homeless in sweatpants. I'm not alone and the fashion industry is taking a beating. Turns out Manolo Blahniks aren't good for the end of days and while we "need" our garden boots and I'm sure Carhartt is doing good the 4 fashion shows per year determining the look of the next season are gone.

Spot on.  I have been in a suit twice since this has happened.  I have really fallen off the deep end and bought two pairs of cargo sweat shorts!

Same story with film. Netflix and Amazon are pushing out content but the big film operations are being choked. Don't hold your breath for the next big blockbuster because the budgets are being decimated.

It is actually worse than this.  They have an inventory of four months of blockbusters which are in the can but not released because theaters are closed.  So now studios have to figure out how to release these.  Generally, each big movie has their own opening weekend where they would only be competing against smaller new releases and carryovers from previous weeks.  But when theaters fully reopen, there is a danger that all the studios will rush to get them out thereby splitting box office more than normal.  Then this will be followed by a dearth of movies until filming gets reactivated.  It is a rare case where collusion may be beneficial.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: Stwood on August 11, 2020, 11:16:15 AM
So we may find out how many hollywood stars really don't have 400m in the bank, and may soon be in the soup lines with everyone else.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on August 25, 2020, 12:05:08 PM
How about the downfall of New York and California as economic hotspots? Good data is hard to come by but NYC office buildings seem to be sitting at a 10% occupancy rate. That's pathetic. Both states have also lost a good chunk of population.

Hard to say for sure but it sure looks like NYC, Silicon Valley, and LA are losing people to Texas. We could be entering a new paradigm where the business center of the country is Texas.

Interesting changes are coming.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: iam4liberty on August 25, 2020, 12:31:59 PM
Hard to say for sure but it sure looks like NYC, Silicon Valley, and LA are losing people to Texas. We could be entering a new paradigm where the business center of the country is Texas.

Funny you should say that.  I was on a conference call with an exec who let us know they are downsizing their LA office by moving 75% of employees there to Plano.  90% decided to do the move rather than taking compensation and staying in California.  Their biggest client, a big global manufacturer, has been moving most of their US headquarters staff to Texas and incentivized their suppliers to do the same.  One of their competitors is doing the same with Tennessee.   So, when these companies move, they take others with them.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: David in MN on August 25, 2020, 02:41:18 PM
Funny you should say that.  I was on a conference call with an exec who let us know they are downsizing their LA office by moving 75% of employees there to Plano.  90% decided to do the move rather than taking compensation and staying in California.  Their biggest client, a big global manufacturer, has been moving most of their US headquarters staff to Texas and incentivized their suppliers to do the same.  One of their competitors is doing the same with Tennessee.   So, when these companies move, they take others with them.

Not that surprising. Depending on whose numbers you look at right now Texas is the #1 location for companies leaving California. Texas already boasts ~50 Fortune 500 businesses. The shift is that most Texas business is legacy stuff like oil, aerospace, and infrastructure. If they could woo some of the tech sector that state would look like a juggernaut.

I've got kin all over this country and the aunt in DFW just keeps talking about the massive growth from 2019-2020. Which is odd because back in the 70s when they all struck out my uncle went to work in tech in California and Texas was (not to be rude) kind of thought of as a backwater. Those tables are turning.

I can also anecdotally say that both my mother and sister were/are 80% travel as project leads. Mom was finding that all her work was Texas and fly-over states like your Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, etc. My sister is national but despite living in Virginia she spends about 2/3 of her time in only one city: Atlanta.

I'm wondering if COVID was just the push people needed to get out of office they didn't really want. A lot of companies squander money horribly keeping up lavish offices that provide little value.

There is a more macro thing going on that this is forcing us to face. I think companies will redefine "going to work". It also gives the excuse to shrug high tax areas. Things change quick. Detroit was once the crown jewel of the Midwest. In Two Years Before the Mast (1840) Dana calls San Francisco "a hill". Perhaps we are watching a new American migration.
Title: Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Post by: DDJ on August 26, 2020, 10:52:00 AM
The company I work for was just about to send 1/3 of our workforce to work from home when the Covid hit the fan.  Then we, even as a "essential" company, sent everyone to work from home in March.   I worked form home until July when I get assigned a new desk in the plant.  I went to Headquarters yesterday and there is maybe 10% in the office.  Most that are left are mechanical engineers.  Even the customer help desk people are working remotely.  So yes Covid is going to push companies to down size their offices and remote the staff.  That is going to play havoc on the city taxes.  The tax base is going to get spread out.  I was paying city taxes to the city HQ is in but if I were to work from home I should not be charged city tax (I am in a township with no income tax).  Bigger cities are going to see their tax income drop because the commuters are paying to the outlaying communities which are often less taxes.  If the city is not getting the income tax from the workers they are not going to offer incentives to the companies to come into or stay in town.  With no incentives the company moves.  Then the cycle gets bigger.