The Survival Podcast Forum

News => Current Severe Emergency Situations => Topic started by: Nicodemus on January 20, 2012, 09:13:35 AM

Title: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: Nicodemus on January 20, 2012, 09:13:35 AM
Solar Blast Heading Our Way (http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/19/10192639-solar-blast-heading-our-way)

"M-class flares are capable of causing brief radio blackouts near the poles as well as minor radiation storms, but it's unlikely that this one will disrupt communication or power transmission networks."

It's probably nothing to worry about, just a heads up.
Title: Re: CME Hits This Weekend
Post by: Mr. Bill on January 20, 2012, 09:32:35 AM
Some links:

NWS Space Weather Prdiction Center (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html)

SpaceWeather.com (http://www.spaceweather.com/)

Very cool animation (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20120119_183400_anim.tim-den.gif) showing the forecast blast as it passes through the solar system.
Title: Re: CME Hits This Weekend
Post by: Roundabouts on January 20, 2012, 12:32:03 PM
Thanks for the heads up.  Have a question.  Solar storms hits big. (Not so big that it takes the whole grid down) So it can mess with our electrical stuff.  So if you unplug like say TV computer and so on Dose that help keep it safe?  Or are those things only affected if they are on and running.   yeah I get that a bad storm can take down the grid that = no power.  But just wondering about individual devices including cars.  I am getting conflicting answers to that.
Title: Re: CME Hits This Weekend
Post by: Cedar on January 20, 2012, 12:47:08 PM
It is not a bad idea to unplug. I have seen power surges when the power just comes back on and my e family had three VCR and a microwave blow up.

I am mad I have rain and won't be able to see any northern lights.. I miss them so.

Cedar
Title: Re: CME Hits This Weekend
Post by: Mr. Bill on January 20, 2012, 05:31:39 PM
Quote
2012-01-20 16:35   G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Possible January 23

SWPC Forecasters have determined that the CME from NOAA Region 1402 near disk center yesterday will likely pass above (north) of Earth. This glancing blow will cause just G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity. Look for the first signs of it around 1800Z (1:00 pm EST) on Sunday, January 22, with the bulk of the disturbance to occur Monday, January 23. Watch here (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html) for updates.
Title: Planes expected to reroute following massive solar eruption
Post by: clickdead on January 23, 2012, 01:46:08 PM
Interesting, made the front page of Fox News.
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/01/23/planes-rerouted-fearing-strongest-radiation-storm-in-7-years/
Title: Large CME (solar flare)
Post by: nkawtg on January 23, 2012, 01:55:07 PM
Spaceweather.com announced large almost X class flare. ETA Jan 24th.
http://spaceweather.com/ (http://spaceweather.com/)
 
Title: Re: Large CME (solar flare)
Post by: Alan Georges on January 23, 2012, 03:37:55 PM
ETA 9am EST tomorrow: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
G2 strength likely, G3 possible, i.e., moderate to strong.  Not much to get concerned about, but here's a link on what the G-scale means: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: cmxterra on January 23, 2012, 06:06:35 PM
Hoping we get enough clear sky to see/ photograph some aurora
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: Alan Georges on January 23, 2012, 06:53:43 PM
Hoping we get enough clear sky to see/ photograph some aurora
If you get some good photos, please post!
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: Cedar on January 24, 2012, 12:48:07 AM
It has been upgraded --

ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME (UPDATED): This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind.

X-class flares are big; they are major events that can trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.

Cedar
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: Cedar on January 27, 2012, 01:39:36 PM
An X2 has just been unleashed from the sun but I think it is not heading our way

Cedar

Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: ttubravesrock on January 27, 2012, 01:45:57 PM
This is an article in my local paper.  I thought some of you might enjoy it. 

http://www.newsminer.com/view/full_story/17283066/article-Solar-storm-produces-outstanding-aurora-over-Alaska-as-airlines--telecom-companies-fret-over-disruptions?instance=home_most_popular1 (http://www.newsminer.com/view/full_story/17283066/article-Solar-storm-produces-outstanding-aurora-over-Alaska-as-airlines--telecom-companies-fret-over-disruptions?instance=home_most_popular1)
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: Cedar on January 27, 2012, 02:01:11 PM
TY

Cedar
Title: X5.4 flare and cme incoming
Post by: cmxterra on March 07, 2012, 08:52:11 AM
Looks like we are in for a direct hit sometime tomorrow .
Title: Re: X5.4 flare and cme incoming
Post by: Shaunypoo on March 07, 2012, 09:04:00 AM
I like listening to this guy now and then.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-scvqaP35gc

Alot of what he is saying is over my head, but there is some amazing footage.
Title: Re: X5.4 flare and cme incoming
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 07, 2012, 09:04:53 AM
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html

Quote
2012-03-07 15:18 UTC  Solar Radiation and Geomagnetic Storms Continue

The CME that erupted late on March 4 passed ACE around 0400 UTC March 7 (11:00 p.m. EST March 6). As a result, storming reaching the G2 (Moderate) level continues at this time.  Another CME, part of the recent R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event at 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE early morning UTC on March 8 (start of day EST March 8) . Geomagnetic storm periods reaching the G3 (Strong) level are likely from that CME.  Finally, a Solar Radiation Storm is also in progress and levels are currently above the S3 (Strong) threshold.  Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible.  Updates here as conditions warrant.
Title: Re: X5.4 flare and cme incoming
Post by: cmxterra on March 07, 2012, 09:09:00 AM
also check out solarham.com for up to the minute info.
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: ag2 on March 07, 2012, 01:17:38 PM
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/story/2012-03-07/solar-storm-earth-power-disruptions/53398390/1?csp=34news


Has anyone found any comparison to the 1989 solar storm?  I know size, intensity, duration, position of earth (time of day), angle and probably a dozen other criteria well above my comprehension are variables which might make comparison difficult.  I'm just trying to get a sense of whether this might cause more or less disruption than the 1989 solar storm.  The nerd that lives inside me is curious.  I'm not panicky since they are saying that this is not super storm.
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: nkawtg on March 07, 2012, 01:44:43 PM
What I want to know is what comparitive x-class size was the 1859 Carrington event. Does anyone know?
The 1989 event was in the neighborhood of an X-14. That number was derived from a narritive: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/12nov_haywire/
The article spoke of an X-28 flare occurring in 2003 and contrasted that event with the 1989 event which was "half as strong". We were lucky apparenty because the 2003 flare was not aimed at earth.
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: cmxterra on March 07, 2012, 01:50:33 PM
Well the X5.4 that happened yesterday is headed right for us

More info

http://solarham.com/
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: radiomacgyver on March 07, 2012, 01:55:24 PM
Here we go!!!!
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: cmxterra on March 07, 2012, 01:57:49 PM
I am planning on heading north of the city lights tomorrow night to see what I can photograph.
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: Greywolf27 on March 07, 2012, 02:04:40 PM
I am planning on heading north of the city lights tomorrow night to see what I can photograph.

Can't wait to see those
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 08, 2012, 09:05:16 PM
If you're in Maine or Minnesota or anywhere up thataway, and you've got a clear sky, might be worth taking a look to the north RIGHT NOW for an aurora.

Here's a nice up-to-the-minute image of where an aurora might be visible:
http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/images/Ovation_USA.png
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: ttubravesrock on March 08, 2012, 09:09:15 PM
If you're in Maine or Minnesota or anywhere up thataway, and you've got a clear sky, might be worth taking a look to the north RIGHT NOW for an aurora.

Here's a nice up-to-the-minute image of where an aurora might be visible:
http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/images/Ovation_USA.png

But its still light outside in Fairbanks...
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: cmxterra on March 09, 2012, 09:07:08 AM
Time lapse I shot of the Aurora last night.
Make sure you set it for 1080p (highest resolution) and blow it up to full screen.

This is from when I got to the site till when I left. You can see it started out slow but near the end got rather energetic.

I am still working on some of the individual frames.

For the geeks and photo nerds.
D300s
10.5mm 2.8
15sec exposure @ 2.8 ISO of 640
Shot every 17 seconds over the course of 4 hours. From about 9pm to 1 am.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_ocsz7co1A
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: Shaunypoo on March 09, 2012, 09:11:23 AM
+1 Thank you.

That really came alive there at the end.  The only way to improve that would be to add some kind of time stamp as it was going, but was excellent as is.

How often do you see aurora up the there?  How does it compare to what the video shows?
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: Morning Sunshine on March 09, 2012, 09:12:18 AM
wow cmx - that is great.  I was wondering if you had gotten anything.
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: cmxterra on March 09, 2012, 09:16:18 AM
I just threw that video together real fast. Not sure if Picasa will let me do any fancy editing like having a running clock.

With the longer exposures the camera was actually seeing a bit more than what you could see by just the naked eye. To the eye most of the first 30 seconds of that film were just sort of a green glow. However near the end when it really got going you could see the aurora move. It was very cool but would have been better had there not been a full freaking moon.

They happen from time to time up here. You just have to know when they are happening and get away from the city lights to be able to see them well.

With us getting so near solar max I can see other trips to my new favorite aurora spot in my future.
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: Greywolf27 on March 09, 2012, 09:22:57 AM
I'll be checking that out when I get home tonight
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: cmxterra on March 09, 2012, 11:23:35 AM
Here is a combination of 822 images from last night.

(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-FdLTlndhWbY/T1pKEwvCGeI/AAAAAAAADNg/G6Ibby5ikqo/s1024/fulltrails3912-copyright.jpg)
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: Cedar on March 09, 2012, 12:01:47 PM
Here is a combination of 822 images from last night.

Centered on the North Star?

Cedar
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 09, 2012, 12:29:45 PM
Time lapse I shot of the Aurora last night. ...

Very, very cool!  Thanks for posting.
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: mxitman on March 09, 2012, 01:40:11 PM
I went out  a couple of times here in the Seattle area but we had too much cloud cover to see anything. Last summer in MN  around the 4th of July saw quite the show one night...
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: cmxterra on March 09, 2012, 01:43:28 PM
Centered on the North Star?

Cedar

yes
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: ttubravesrock on March 09, 2012, 02:07:01 PM
Here is a combination of 822 images from last night.

(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-FdLTlndhWbY/T1pKEwvCGeI/AAAAAAAADNg/G6Ibby5ikqo/s1024/fulltrails3912-copyright.jpg)

From where?  I assume somewhere between washington and michigan, but I could be wrong.
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: cmxterra on March 09, 2012, 03:07:07 PM
From where?  I assume somewhere between washington and michigan, but I could be wrong.

Minnesota
Title: Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
Post by: ag2 on March 09, 2012, 08:47:03 PM
That is so super cool.  What kind of equipment did you use?
Title: Solar storm’s parting shot packed a punch; northern lights visible in Midwest
Post by: dep190 on March 10, 2012, 06:24:43 AM
Just two  articles about the storm (yes a mild one thank goodness)  the nat geo experts said wont likely happen :o
Solar storm’s parting shot packed a punch; northern lights visible in Midwest

..Space storm packs late punch, biggest since '04

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/earth-braces-biggest-space-storm-five-years-020630067.html

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/national_world/2012/03/10/solar-storms-parting-shot-packed-a-punch.html