The Survival Podcast Forum

Finance and Economics => The Money Board => Economic News, the Global Economy and all Things Monetary => Topic started by: Cedar on July 03, 2014, 09:03:29 AM

Title: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on July 03, 2014, 09:03:29 AM
It is currently sitting at 17,044.28.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on July 03, 2014, 10:15:22 AM
17,074.27
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: busymomx3 on July 03, 2014, 10:47:58 AM
Whew, we are saved, I can stop prepping for SHTF :)...
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: digitalartranch on July 03, 2014, 10:58:50 AM
maybe I haven't been listening closely enough but I haven't heard Jack mention much about the stock market lately - well - not in the way he did when the show was first starting.

To me, this should be good news but I think its less the stock market actually becoming more valuable and more the dollar weakening.  my .02

Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on July 03, 2014, 11:03:40 AM
Two year ago when some economist guy (who was right about the last 2 crashes), said that we would crash again after it hit 17k, I thought nahhhhhhh.. we will never hit 17,000.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: TexDaddy on July 03, 2014, 12:34:34 PM
(http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?&id=HN.608019338977085519&w=300&h=300&c=0&pid=1.9&rs=0&p=0)
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: NCFreedom on July 03, 2014, 12:55:35 PM
scary
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on July 03, 2014, 01:00:53 PM
Two year ago when some economist guy (who was right about the last 2 crashes), said that we would crash again after it hit 17k, I thought nahhhhhhh.. we will never hit 17,000.

Cedar

A few days ago, a guy on NPR (yes, NPR) said not to get too excited about the figure, as a large degree of it is due to inflation.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on July 03, 2014, 01:04:26 PM
A few days ago, a guy on NPR (yes, NPR) said not to get too excited about the figure, as a large degree of it is due to inflation.

That is what I was figuring.. a "false number".. not good to invest in. Right?
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on July 03, 2014, 01:38:53 PM
In my lay person's opinion, I don't think the size of this index really means anything with regards to forecasting a collapse.
In fact, the S&P500 is a much better index of American industry, but the DOW is the traditional favorite.

I have an IRA that's an accumulation of old 401k rollovers.  My goal is to do a tick better than the rate of inflation, and it's usually a short of that goal  :-[

It's a tough choice:

1) hold cash and knowingly lose ~2% annually due to inflation
2) invest into conservative equities like bluechip stocks, plan to earn 3-5% if things go well, but lose 20% if there's another 2008
3) invest into aggressive stocks, earn 10-20% when things go well, or lose up to 80% if there's another 2008

I do a mix of 1 and 2 in my retirement accounts.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Louisiana Suvivor on July 03, 2014, 09:09:58 PM
my great grandpa invested heavily after the crash and depression........maybe i'll have the same opportunity. but i'm probly better off investing into tangibles like gardening, tools, skills, and community.

maybe just maybe i'll be able to retire one day. (i''m only 26) i'm pretty sure my generation is gonna get effed.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on July 03, 2014, 09:21:28 PM
That is what I was figuring.. a "false number".. not good to invest in. Right?
The fed has been printing money since 2009 like it's going out of style, quantitative easing and all.  That money has to go somewhere and some of it is going into the stock market.  That drives up the value of stocks. 

If you print more paper without anything to back it, it's worth less, not more.  If you buy stocks with that money it doesn't make the companies worth more, it just inflates the value of the stocks.  Besides, stocks have no inherent value anyway.  It's perceived value.  If the market has a bad mood or everyone needs their cash for something else, the values fall.

The DOW industrial is more of a mood sensor than a true measure of national prosperity.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Louisiana Suvivor on July 03, 2014, 09:24:47 PM
The DOW industrial is more of a mood sensor than a true measure of national prosperity.

so what you're saying is that if the DOW was our wife she's bloated, hormonal, and giving the county, let's say, "blue spheres"???

just a joke ladies. i love all of you and especially my darling wife :D
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on July 03, 2014, 09:44:26 PM
This is just the beginning, this market could easily keep going up for another 5 years. The Dow is up more than 100% in the last 5 years, the S&P is almost 120%, and the Nasdaq is 160%. There is so much cash sitting on the sidelines, we've got a long way to go before we get to bubble popping levels.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Morning Sunshine on July 03, 2014, 09:55:16 PM
This is just the beginning, this market could easily keep going up for another 5 years. The Dow is up more than 100% in the last 5 years, the S&P is almost 120%, and the Nasdaq is 160%. There is so much cash sitting on the sidelines, we've got a long way to go before we get to bubble popping levels.

so you are saying we have some more breathing room to finish our preps before the crash?  that is kind of a nice thought
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on July 03, 2014, 10:36:10 PM
so you are saying we have some more breathing room to finish our preps before the crash?  that is kind of a nice thought

That's one way of looking at it.

Honestly, while it could get me run out of TSPF on a rail, I see the stock market as a great investment with much less risk than is commonly accepted (especially amongst preppers) when compared to just about anything else over the long-haul.  It's arguably one of the easiest ways to beat inflation and the bankers at their own game. I think everyone should take advantage of it, but that's just me and I tend to be a bit contrarian when it comes to the prepper party line.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Louisiana Suvivor on July 04, 2014, 08:13:20 AM
it's definitely not blasphemy to play stocks, just very risky. but that's life. like everything you have to do your research. and you have to "roll the dice". some preppers aren't gonna do that while others are probably making a shit ton of money. all types with all stripes. i'm just saying I'M not above anything to help make preps better.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on July 11, 2014, 12:43:19 PM
Two year ago when some economist guy (who was right about the last 2 crashes), said that we would crash again after it hit 17k, I thought nahhhhhhh.. we will never hit 17,000.

Cedar

October is when we have had the most Historical crashes over the last 100 years. 1929, 1987, 1989 (the mini crash, 2008, and maybe 2014? I did two podcast episodes last week talking about the world economy. I'm not so sure that we will have a nasty crash but we might because we are long overdue for a correction. Nothing goes straight up.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on July 11, 2014, 03:57:33 PM
The passing of Dow 17,000 serves mostly as a reminder of “the two rules of forecasting” cited by Bill Berger — the late, legendary mutual fund manager of the late 20th century — in 1995 at a time when everyone was getting excited that the Dow might soon breach 5,000:

    Rule 1: For each forecast, there is an equal and opposite forecast.
    Rule 2: Both of them are wrong.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-17000-is-just-a-number-2014-07-10

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on July 11, 2014, 07:44:58 PM
The passing of Dow 17,000 serves mostly as a reminder of “the two rules of forecasting” cited by Bill Berger — the late, legendary mutual fund manager of the late 20th century — in 1995 at a time when everyone was getting excited that the Dow might soon breach 5,000:

    Rule 1: For each forecast, there is an equal and opposite forecast.
    Rule 2: Both of them are wrong.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-17000-is-just-a-number-2014-07-10

Cedar

Yeah I'll stick with my 15 years of industry experience. Again Cedar no markets go straight up without a correction pull back and the long it goes the harder the pull back will be. If the Down breaks under 15,000 over then next 2 months then it will continue the up trend. If not and continues to climb I will be selling all my positions by mid September and I would strongly advise all of you to do the same because at that point October will be a blood bath.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Louisiana Suvivor on July 13, 2014, 12:51:34 PM
I'm expecting the blood bath. It's gonna happen eventually. Let's get it over already!
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on July 14, 2014, 06:41:16 AM
I'm expecting the blood bath. It's gonna happen eventually. Let's get it over already!

I agree 100%. The longer it's held off the bigger the crash will be. I've pulled some money off the table and I'm keeping a close eye on things in case I need to pull the trigger before mid September.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on July 14, 2014, 08:32:21 AM
It is at 17,072.75 at the moment, went as high as 17,085.00 this morning..
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-climb-citigroup-results-in-view-2014-07-14

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on July 14, 2014, 09:58:06 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5akEgsZSfhg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5akEgsZSfhg)

It just seems so appropriate for this thread. ;D
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: ncjeeper on July 14, 2014, 10:48:39 AM
Another one bites the dust by queen will be appropriate too here soon.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on July 14, 2014, 11:31:37 AM
I don't mean to nit pick, but I haven't seen much "actionable intel" in this post, regarding when to sell off.  Max makes a prudent point about October though.  End of September is often a financial inflection point for many businesses.  Not only are earnings reported, but it's a major seasonal shift for many industries.

I've got a traditional IRA I no longer contribute to, that's around 2/3 equities (blue chip stocks).  Most of those pay regular dividends, and so even when the valuation drops, I still make a few hundred bucks in quarterly dividends that I keep in the "cash equivalent" bucket in the IRA. 

For one concrete example see CAT.  Their ex dividend date is 7/17/2014.  That means anyone who owns the stock at close of trading on that date will receive a divided in the future (weeks out).
So today the stock is slightly inflated because no one wants to forfeit that dividend payout.  Chances are it'll drop on 7/18 because that's now the longest duration from the next quarter's eligibility date for dividend payout.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on July 14, 2014, 01:16:16 PM
I think most folks here are wise enough to know that forecasting the market is a fool's errand.  One very old trick is watching the comments threads on bullish and bearish articles in Marketwatch, Yahoo! Finance, etc.  When the comments get over 50% bullish, watch out!  Markets are much more prone to crash when the majority of investors have removed the possibility from their mindset.  When the average Joe starts believing the crap about a 31,000 DOW, lookout, trouble is not far behind.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on July 14, 2014, 01:55:56 PM
Good point endurance. I myself follow charts and trend lines to see what has happened, combined that with relative world economic news and you can sniff out traps in the market. Our last bottom in the market, beginning of the current trend, was back on 11/16/2012. The DJIA hit 12,471.49 that day and has been on a steady incline ever since. Our last small pullback was in the end of Jan this year. So in just over a year and half the DJIA is up over 37% and will most likely go a little higher before a major correction happens. The thing that bothers me the most is that this rally is that it has not been based on solid fundamentals and if the market does not start to let off pressure soon things will explode. At this point it’s like 1929 on roids. In order for the up trend to continue the market needs to slide back a good 1,500 points over at least a 4 week period. If we can manage that then I see the DJIA hitting 20,000.

My podcast for tomorrow is about this topic if any of you care to check it out. I love doing my own podcast but the thing that sucks is I can't listen to TSP like I use to, if at all.  :(
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on July 14, 2014, 02:07:37 PM
I have seen no rhyme or reason to the stock market for a long time.

Greece barely sneezes and the DOW crops hundreds of points. It is blamed on Greece.
Something else blows up elsewhere major and the DOW gains 100+ points.

B-i-e-b-e-r gets arrested and it drops points.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 200 points in March as soft economic data from China and rising tensions in Ukraine helped trigger the biggest one-day drop for U.S. stocks in more than six weeks.

Shares of Citigroup jumped more than 3% today -- despite the impact of a $7 billion settlement over its promotion of toxic, mortgage-backed securities.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on July 14, 2014, 03:14:23 PM
I think most folks here are wise enough to know that forecasting the market is a fool's errand.  One very old trick is watching the comments threads on bullish and bearish articles in Marketwatch, Yahoo! Finance, etc.  When the comments get over 50% bullish, watch out!  Markets are much more prone to crash when the majority of investors have removed the possibility from their mindset.  When the average Joe starts believing the crap about a 31,000 DOW, lookout, trouble is not far behind.

This is why I see so much more room for stocks to rise over the next few years.  There are billions of dollars in doom and gloom cash, losing value on the sidelines, because the majority of investors are still freaked out from the last crash.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on July 14, 2014, 07:34:33 PM
This is why I see so much more room for stocks to rise over the next few years.  There are billions of dollars in doom and gloom cash, losing value on the sidelines, because the majority of investors are still freaked out from the last crash.

There is not as much as you may think on the sidelines. Institutional investors are the big money anyways. The mom and pop investors don't really sway the markets. We just go along for the ride and most people are in the market and are not freaked out at this point. Trust me I work in the financial industry as a high level manager. Which means I have to be careful with what I say. I have access to extensive demographic data that may suprise you. People in total are more invested now than back on 2008. All the ingredients are mixed together and being placed into the oven as we speak. If any of you have money in the market, please use extreme caution.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on July 15, 2014, 12:40:15 AM
Which means I have to be careful with what I say.

Why?


All the ingredients are mixed together and being placed into the oven as we speak.  If any of you have money in the market, please use extreme caution.

Spooky. 

Don't worry, it's all batteries, bullets, bullion, and barnyards for this crowd, anyways.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on July 15, 2014, 07:28:21 AM
Why?

Because if my employer would find out that I post here and if I say the wrong thing, aka disclose info they deem secret I could lose my job and get black balled. Six figure jobs are not easy to come by these days especially when you have to change career paths.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on July 15, 2014, 08:24:18 AM
Because if my employer would find out that I post here and if I say the wrong thing, aka disclose info they deem secret I could lose my job and get black balled. Six figure jobs are not easy to come by these days especially when you have to change career paths.

My brother has to be careful as well to protect his job.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on July 15, 2014, 09:11:37 AM
My brother has to be careful as well to protect his job.

Cedar

Yeah I'll share what I can with all of you but I just have to be careful. Actually what shocked me was they gave me approval to do my own podcast, yes because of my industry and position I had to get prior approval. I've really have to watch myself when I do shows because things could slip out when I get heated on an economic topic, which as happened already. lol

Now as for the Dow, Well we hit a new high yet again even though we are down at the moment. While that is happening silver remains under $21 an oz and Bitcoin is hovering around $618 and Litecoin is still in the single digits from it's smash down. The crypto currency that has peeked my interest is Namecoin and I bought 500 of those last week and I'm debating on buying some Litecoin at this level.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: bigbear on July 15, 2014, 10:32:39 AM
In order for the up trend to continue the market needs to slide back a good 1,500 points over at least a 4 week period. If we can manage that then I see the DJIA hitting 20,000.

I get the idea behind following trends (i.e. market sentiment).  But I don't trust the idea of valuing market sentiment above market valuation.  Trend analysis has led to the conclusion that IF we hit XYZ, then the market will keep rising until 20,000.  IF we don't hit XYZ, then the market will drop to 12,000 (or whatever the drop is suggested to be).  It's part of why I'm becoming more of a dividend investor with the bulk of our 'nest egg' money and a 'story' investor with 'casino' money.  I don't have time (nor desire or stress aptitude) to follow daily trends.

Personally, I have a little cash on hand to play the slots in case the Fed taper causes a significant selloff but don't plan on selling any 'nest egg' holdings to prepare/speculate on a pullback.  But the biggest domestic trend indicator (IMO) will be job number and consumer spending through the holidays.  And geo-political risks can trump quite a bit...
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on July 15, 2014, 11:52:37 AM
I get the idea behind following trends (i.e. market sentiment).  But I don't trust the idea of valuing market sentiment above market valuation.  Trend analysis has led to the conclusion that IF we hit XYZ, then the market will keep rising until 20,000.  IF we don't hit XYZ, then the market will drop to 12,000 (or whatever the drop is suggested to be).  It's part of why I'm becoming more of a dividend investor with the bulk of our 'nest egg' money and a 'story' investor with 'casino' money.  I don't have time (nor desire or stress aptitude) to follow daily trends.

Personally, I have a little cash on hand to play the slots in case the Fed taper causes a significant selloff but don't plan on selling any 'nest egg' holdings to prepare/speculate on a pullback.  But the biggest domestic trend indicator (IMO) will be job number and consumer spending through the holidays.  And geo-political risks can trump quite a bit...

Everyone has a different situation for sure and with that everyone needs and will invest in a different manner. That being said if you put money on the sidelines for a while, if you see a train coming, you may want to do so. However you also have to take in consideration taxable events. There is no perfect answer my friend, I'm just giving my overall view of the market and yes being a dividend investor is a wise move. I myself am a biotech speculator but I also work in the industry with a lot of years of experience and I would not recommend it to anyone.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on July 16, 2014, 10:13:52 AM
17,138.81. New record today.

News of a takeover bid by Rupert Murdoch's 21st Century Fox for Time Warner energized investors as shares of Time Warner shot up 16%.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on July 16, 2014, 10:48:30 AM
17,138.81. New record today.

News of a takeover bid by Rupert Murdoch's 21st Century Fox for Time Warner energized investors as shares of Time Warner shot up 16%.

Cedar

I do love when the Market behaves like this because it makes my type of investing provide even greater returns. I know I've told you folks that I make my money investing in Biotech stocks and I would like to show you what I do. What I do is I target small biotech companies (under $1 billion in market cap) that have major events coming up with in a month/ month and half. Just for the record I'm not going to give specific stocks because I don't what anyone to say that I'm writing this for my own benefit, because I'm not. Okay back on topic. There are three main events that I look for.
1. Phase 3 trial results
2. Advisory committee for the FDA - they vote on the recommendation of approval.
3. PDUFA - this is the deadline for the FDA to announce approval or denial of a product.
Typical on advisory committee days the stock is halted from trading for the whole day and on PDUFA the stock is halted until the announcement which can take place anytime during the trading day.
Now if you start to take long positions in companies that fit what I've spelled out you can make some serious cash. Now it is very risky but there are very good day trading opportunities and also great buy and short term hold positions as well. During the final month to month and half these types of stocks typically get a great run up in stock price and depending on the stock it can get smashed two or three trading days before the event, which is a great chance to day trade. Now holding onto the position through these event days take big balls and you better do your research on the drug or product if you attempt to so that and for the record I have done that but I knew the drugs and their studies. Here is the website that I visit to find my target companies to invest in and if any of you have questions on this you can PM me and I’ll be glad to help you out.
http://www.biopharmcatalyst.com/fda-calendar/ (http://www.biopharmcatalyst.com/fda-calendar/)
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on July 31, 2014, 05:38:03 PM
The Dow fell 317 points today, erasing all of its gains for the year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply as well, each down about 2%. They gave back the all the gains they had made in July.

Heavy selling overseas, driven by worries about Argentina's latest debt default and more problems with a big Portuguese bank, combined with a slew of negative earnings and a disappointing outlook on manufacturing from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago to drop stocks.

From around the world stock markets today:
Dow Jones Industrial Average  United States   -317.06    
S&P 500 Index                       United States  -39.40    
Brazil Bovespa Stock Index       Brazil           -1,048.56    
Canada S&P/TSX 60               Canada           -12.24    
Santiago Index IPSA               Chile           -25.53
IPC                                       Mexico           -493.37    
FTSE 100                               England           -43.33
CAC 40                               France           -66.16    
DAX                                       Germany       -186.20    
Mumbai Sensex                       India           -192.45    
Taiwan TSEC 50 Index               Taiwan           -131.17    

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: digitalartranch on July 31, 2014, 08:11:53 PM
lots of reports out due tomorrow as well... could turn this either way really...   (unemployment, buyer sentiment...etc)  stay tuned.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on October 09, 2014, 07:12:40 PM
Dropped -334.97 (1.97%)

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on October 10, 2014, 10:16:35 AM
Yeah I'll stick with my 15 years of industry experience. Again Cedar no markets go straight up without a correction pull back and the long it goes the harder the pull back will be. If the Down breaks under 15,000 over then next 2 months then it will continue the up trend. If not and continues to climb I will be selling all my positions by mid September and I would strongly advise all of you to do the same because at that point October will be a blood bath.

Looks like I might be proven right. However I can't discount the Fed from playing the role of Atlas and holding the market up. I pulled my money from the market two weeks ago so I can kinda put my feet up and watch the fireworks.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on October 10, 2014, 01:45:19 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102077671

"Exhaustion has almost set into the market. The volume is getting lower because people don't know what to do," said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade.

"With the Fed going away, and the slowdown in Europe, the market is trying to figure out are these valuations fair, that's what this whole week has been about," said Kinahan.

Equities fell to session lows after Standard & Poor's downgraded the outlook for France to negative from stable.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on October 10, 2014, 01:55:03 PM
I pulled my money from the market two weeks ago so I can kinda put my feet up and watch the fireworks.

I didn't, and I won't. And I'm still putting my feet up and watching the fireworks.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on October 10, 2014, 02:25:37 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102077671

"Exhaustion has almost set into the market. The volume is getting lower because people don't know what to do," said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade.

"With the Fed going away, and the slowdown in Europe, the market is trying to figure out are these valuations fair, that's what this whole week has been about," said Kinahan.

Equities fell to session lows after Standard & Poor's downgraded the outlook for France to negative from stable.

Cedar

That right there is telling you that Institutional investors have pulled out of the long side of the market and have finished sell their short positions. The mom and pops, including Mutual Funds, are left long in the market and scared to death. Seen this game before.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on October 10, 2014, 03:24:44 PM
The mom and pops, including Mutual Funds, are left long in the market and scared to death.

That's me, well, except for the scared to death part.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: nelson96 on October 11, 2014, 04:55:15 PM
Don't worry, it's all batteries, bullets, bullion, and barnyards for this crowd, anyways.

I can't say I'm not scared, but my market investments are in a 401K and I keep my contribution percentage low enough that my budget doesn't get too hurt and so that I can take advantage of my employers 100% match. . .  It's scary because when I do look at the fund, it's getting pretty sizeable and would hate to lose it for all that it can offer some day.

That said, I keep other investments tangible (silver and other property... including batteries, bullets, bullion, and barnyards). 
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on October 13, 2014, 11:30:43 AM
There is a semi well known analyst named McHugh that has been preaching for awhile about how there is not only a multi-decade, but a multi-century collapse soon to come.  He bases it almost entirely on a technical analysis, and lately has been going kind of crazy pointing out things currently are unfolding just as they would before a very large collapse.  I think it's pretty clear some sort of crash is coming, it's just the size that is the debate.  However, if this guys multi-century analysis is correct... well, it's about as bad as it gets so let's hope that's not how this cookie crumbles.

Excerpt from one of his latest updates:
Quote
The stock market remains on a confirmed and official Hindenburg Omen from Friday, September 19th.  This comes at the precise same time that a rare and important and dangerous Bearish divergence is occurring between the NYSE cumulative Advance/Decline Line and stocks, and also is coming at the same time the long developing multi-decade extremely dangerous Bearish Jaws of Death pattern looks complete. It also comes when the Fed will now be pulling liquidity out of the market. This confluence is very dangerous, and it is arriving at the seasonally worst time of the year for stocks, the September into October timeframe.

He used to talk a lot about the Hindenburg Omen, and now that it's confirmed he's getting pretty worried.

Ah well... just one dudes take that is surely the exact opposite of plenty of other educated folks.  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, and keep living life.

(oh, and to give due credit/blame for McHugh:   http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/   -- full disclosure I've never been to that site before, I just get forwarded updates from a family member who subscribes to his stuff)
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on October 15, 2014, 08:56:59 AM
And down we go again!
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on October 15, 2014, 09:03:13 AM
-213 at the moment.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on October 15, 2014, 09:32:58 AM
This morning a commentator on NPR MarketWatch said we should expect daily fluctuations of +/- 200 points for the DJIA.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on October 15, 2014, 09:48:36 AM
European shares closed sharply lower on Wednesday as investors shunned risky assets on fears of crumbling global growth, weak economic data, and concerns about the political situation in Greece.

The FTSE closed provisionally down 2.8 percent, the French CAC slipped to close around 3.6 percent lower and Germany's DAX was 2.9 percent lower at the close.

DOW currently -274.12

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on October 15, 2014, 10:09:51 AM
This morning a commentator on NPR MarketWatch said we should expect daily fluctuations of +/- 200 points for the DJIA.

Wow that commentator really stuck their neck out there making that call.  ::)
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on October 15, 2014, 10:18:51 AM
European shares closed sharply lower on Wednesday as investors shunned risky assets on fears of crumbling global growth, weak economic data, and concerns about the political situation in Greece.

The FTSE closed provisionally down 2.8 percent, the French CAC slipped to close around 3.6 percent lower and Germany's DAX was 2.9 percent lower at the close.

DOW currently -274.12

Cedar

I'm honestly expecting a 22% pull back from the DJIA high of 17,350. That would put us at 13,880. The one thing that could stop the slide is the Fed not killing QE this month but rather ramping up of QE yet again. If you notice the 10 year US T note fell under 2% today for a moment. That to me is a key sign that the Fed will come in to "rescue the market" yet again. If the 10 yr was at or above 3% the Fed would not be able to ramp up QE again because at that point they might lose control of rates and then the dollar would be screwed.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on October 15, 2014, 10:25:54 AM
European shares closed sharply lower on Wednesday as investors shunned risky assets on fears of crumbling global growth, weak economic data, and concerns about the political situation in Greece.

Cedar

I love how every single time stocks go up or down, the news reporter always pegs the exact reason with current national and global events.  It's always because of "fears of weak jobs data", or "confidence from strong earnings reports".  Just for once, I'd like to hear a report like:

"Today the DOW fell 250 points, and the S&P and other major indexes were down over 1% due to the fact that the market has been bloated with fed money for years, which is about to dry up, and was falsely propping up the market, and due to decades of reckless debt incursion by just about every major financial institution and  every local, state, and federal government which never was fixed after the 2008 recession, and YES, partly due to fears of crumbling global growth and weak economic data and concerns about the political situation in Greece, but also primarily due to the nearly infinite and uncountable number of influences on the market that not even the whole of human knowledge can grasp."

Ok, I admit, hearing that report every day would get kind of old, but at least it'd be accurate.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on October 15, 2014, 10:28:09 AM
Ok, I admit, hearing that report every day would get kind of old, but at least it'd be accurate.

 ;)

Cedar

PS -352.43 (2.16%)
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: farmboy on October 15, 2014, 11:54:49 AM
So, question is. Is it going to stabilize soon or should i put my old 401k into a cash/bond safe option
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on October 15, 2014, 12:40:58 PM
So, question is. Is it going to stabilize soon or should i put my old 401k into a cash/bond safe option

It's up to the Fed. If they follow through with killing off QE then it will continue to tank. If the Fed keeps QE and increases it then the market could stabilize but that is not a for sure thing.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on October 15, 2014, 12:59:36 PM
Do like Warren Buffet - without incurring penalties, move into "safer" options.  After the plunge go on a buying spree.

Think the quote is "be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy"
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on October 15, 2014, 01:29:43 PM
So, question is. Is it going to stabilize soon or should i put my old 401k into a cash/bond safe option

First, of course nobody can tell you the answer to that with any certainty.

But that being said, it has been mostly a lot of heavy downs lately, but there will be some big ups as well.  This is a very, very volatile time in the market, and it might last like this for months or years to come with big drops and big rises.

Put yourself in a Permanent Portfolio type of setup, and you don't have to worry about timing the market (which even most professionals who do this for a living can't get right more than half the time).
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on October 15, 2014, 01:42:37 PM
Do like Warren Buffet - without incurring penalties, move into "safer" options.  After the plunge go on a buying spree.

Think the quote is "be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy"

Yep that is correct. During the financial crisis I bought GE when it was well under $10.00 per share. I held onto it for two years, collected nice dividends and a nice capital gain when I sold at $22. I also bought Ford at $1.00 and sold at $7.00, wish I would've held onto that one for about 6 months longer when it went to $18.00+
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on October 15, 2014, 02:52:58 PM
Put yourself in a Permanent Portfolio type of setup, and you don't have to worry about timing the market (which even most professionals who do this for a living can't get right more than half the time).

Yep. Set up a plan, stick with it, watch the financial talking heads for amusement, not for insight or advice.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on October 15, 2014, 03:23:04 PM
So, question is. Is it going to stabilize soon or should i put my old 401k into a cash/bond safe option
Personally, I think the bond market is in a more precarious position than the stock market. With interest rates being held this low, the only way is up and when interest rates to up, your portfolio value goes down. With interest rates on 10 years at 2%, if they go up to the historical average of 8% you'd lose close to half you investment.

Just be aware there are so many things that could send this bond market into a tailspin, not the least of which is the European debt issues, the Argentina bond fiasco, and the muni bond nightmare in the US waiting to pop. Odds are they'll all play into each other once something pops. At that point the only safe haven will be cash.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: nelson96 on October 15, 2014, 07:23:07 PM
So, question is. Is it going to stabilize soon or should i put my old 401k into a cash/bond safe option

Keep in mind that when you move 'old' money in a 401K while it's down, you receive a permanent loss on those shares. 
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on October 16, 2014, 09:39:58 AM
Personally, I think the bond market is in a more precarious position than the stock market. With interest rates being held this low, the only way is up and when interest rates to up, your portfolio value goes down. With interest rates on 10 years at 2%, if they go up to the historical average of 8% you'd lose close to half you investment.

Just be aware there are so many things that could send this bond market into a tailspin, not the least of which is the European debt issues, the Argentina bond fiasco, and the muni bond nightmare in the US waiting to pop. Odds are they'll all play into each other once something pops. At that point the only safe haven will be cash.

This is one area that I really wish I knew more about - can you explain?  I have some funds in GSTGX, which is short term government bonds.  From 1988 to now, it's never moved by more than 2-3 percentage points in a year.  What sort of bond investment can go down by half/50%??

Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on October 16, 2014, 10:01:55 AM
This is one area that I really wish I knew more about - can you explain?  I have some funds in GSTGX, which is short term government bonds.  From 1988 to now, it's never moved by more than 2-3 percentage points in a year.  What sort of bond investment can go down by half/50%??

If there's little confidence in private equities, OR a lack of confidence in foreign currencies, that boosts demand for US bonds.  Basically when everything else sucks, US gov debt looks attractive.

So whatever the root cause, if we get into a situation where US bonds are high in demand, the rates will go down. 
e.g. if you think you'll lose 1-5% holding onto stocks, only earning 0.1% is a welcomed alternative.

Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: bigbear on October 16, 2014, 12:46:42 PM
This is one area that I really wish I knew more about - can you explain?  I have some funds in GSTGX, which is short term government bonds.  From 1988 to now, it's never moved by more than 2-3 percentage points in a year.  What sort of bond investment can go down by half/50%??

Historically, short-term gov't bonds as among the most stable types of bonds.  And holding bonds within a mutual fund sort of masks the movement a bit because that fund's prospectus/purpose limits itself to certain timeframes (which is a factor in the yield).  So it's easier to picture outside of a mutual fund and think of it at an individual bond level. 

But any sort of bond investment can go down by half (or more), even gov't bonds.  However, if you hold the bond to maturity, you'll always get the 2-3%.  The price movement comes if you want to sell the bond.  Like what if interest rates went up and you want to get that higher rate?  And conversely, if rates went down, wouldn't you want to keep what's now a higher yielding bond?  Is that anything that would make you want to sell?

So here's an (overly simplified) scenario:
Today I put $1k in a bond with a 2 year APY of 2%, I expect to have a return of $40.40 ($20 for year 1 and 20.40 for year 2).  So the future value (if I hold to maturity) is $1040.40.  In general bonds are fixed contracts, so the interest rate doesn't change with the market rates.

Tomorrow, say the bond rates go down to 1%.  But you just got your bonus and are interested in buying the warm and fuzzy security you get with a bond.  In my limited market you have two options: buying a newly issued 2 year bond with a 1% APY OR you may interested in my bond with a 2% APY.  Which ones more attractive to you?  With the 1% bond you would expect to have $20.20 in interest ($1020.20 total value).  But you would still expect $1040.40 from my bond.  Obviously my 2% bond has more value than a 1% bond.

But why would I want to sell?  The only market-driven reason (outside of personal reasons like needed cash to pay for a hospital visit) for me to sell is if I can get back more money than what I would expect out of my investment.  There's a few variables that play into the 'fair market value' of my bond, including time to maturity, market risks, bond risks, alternative investments...  But basically, it'll cost you more than $1,000 to pry that higher yielding bond out of my hands.  Maybe more than $1,020.40 because I would break even by selling my bond and buying the newly issued bond ($1,020.40 from selling bond - $1,000 buying new bond + $1,020.00 expected return of the new bond = $1,040.40).

Hence the value going up, when interest rates drop.  I kept it simple and didn't really include the 'time value of money' and adjusting for payouts of interest during that 2 year span...

The opposite is true.  If the market rate goes up to 3%, then I'm going to have to drop my selling price to entice the market to buy my lower yielding bond.  No one will buy it otherwise.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on October 16, 2014, 01:24:47 PM
Fantastic explanations, and I was pretty sure that's how it worked.  That is why this statement:

With interest rates on 10 years at 2%, if they go up to the historical average of 8% you'd lose close to half you investment.

which I've heard before, doesn't make sense to me.  Even if, with bigbears example, let's say I have a portfolio of $10,000 in the GSTGX bond fund, and every month I buy $100 worth to add to the fund.  My fund isn't going to drop in value by half if interest rates jump way up.  Isn't it better to say my future returns would drop in half?  So instead of $10,000 + 2% ($200), I would only get $100 the next year (or maybe even have the value go down by a percentage or two).
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on October 16, 2014, 01:55:50 PM
Fantastic explanations, and I was pretty sure that's how it worked.  That is why this statement:

which I've heard before, doesn't make sense to me.  Even if, with bigbears example, let's say I have a portfolio of $10,000 in the GSTGX bond fund, and every month I buy $100 worth to add to the fund.  My fund isn't going to drop in value by half if interest rates jump way up.  Isn't it better to say my future returns would drop in half?  So instead of $10,000 + 2% ($200), I would only get $100 the next year (or maybe even have the value go down by a percentage or two).

When intrest rates go up the value of the bond on the Market goes down. So you have a face value bond at $1,000 with a rate of 2% then rates jump up. If you were to sell that bond on the open market you would have to sell it at a discount in order to intice a new buyer to purchase your bond, lets say at $600. The buyer gets an automatic gain of $400 if they hold through to maturity plus 2% based off $1000 face value of the bond. So they would be getting a ROI of 3.33% instead of 2%. So your bond value would go off of what the market would be willing to buy it at and not the value at which you bought it at. BTW with rates so low there is not much room for capital gains on new issues. The bond market has been primed to blow for some time but it keeps hanging on and in my opinion it will not blow until it game over.

Hope that helps Prodigy.  ;D
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: bigbear on October 17, 2014, 11:10:04 AM
Fantastic explanations, and I was pretty sure that's how it worked.  That is why this statement:

which I've heard before, doesn't make sense to me.  Even if, with bigbears example, let's say I have a portfolio of $10,000 in the GSTGX bond fund, and every month I buy $100 worth to add to the fund.  My fund isn't going to drop in value by half if interest rates jump way up.  Isn't it better to say my future returns would drop in half?  So instead of $10,000 + 2% ($200), I would only get $100 the next year (or maybe even have the value go down by a percentage or two).

In your scenario, you're holding a short-term gov't bond mutual fund.  It would have very little movement as the short-term lending rate has historically remained stable.  And when it does change, it's typically by small amounts.  Yahoo Finance performance page will prove the point though. 
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=GSTGX+Performance

The best year the fund had was in 2001 at 8.75% (a year in which lending rates plummeted).  Yet at no point in time during the year were interest rates over 8% in 2001.  The worst year was in 2013 at 0.33% (a rates crept up).  Yet at no point in time during that year were interest rates on bonds that low. 

So why wouldn't the funds NAV return be the same as the bond rates?  It's due to the buying and selling that the fund manager did (and the changing present values of the bond).
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on October 17, 2014, 01:07:51 PM
Thanks guys, I appreciate the explanations.

Doesn't it make a lot more sense for longer-term investors to just buy the actual bonds themselves, instead of a fund, and go through short, medium, and long term gov. bonds in a regular rotation?  I don't understand why you would sell something at a 40% instant loss just to hop on board the new improved bond yields.

The DOW "breaking 17,000" and then falling by 500 points in a day makes sense to me.  Bonds rising or falling at large rates just doesn't.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: CharlesH on October 17, 2014, 06:08:29 PM
Doesn't it make a lot more sense for longer-term investors to just buy the actual bonds themselves, instead of a fund, and go through short, medium, and long term gov. bonds in a regular rotation?  I don't understand why you would sell something at a 40% instant loss just to hop on board the new improved bond yields.
 
I think so, especially in the case of bonds.  Since the funds are constantly selling and buying, you have very little control over yield in a bond mutual fund.  By owning the bonds themselves you exercise a lot more control on the yield in your portfolio.  I don't find this critical with stocks, and actually prefer owning an index fund for stocks for the diversity.
 
The problem with buying individual bonds is the price.  To build a ladder of bonds with varying maturities like you describe could easily cost in the tens of thousands of dollars.  What I have heard people doing is initially buying 1, 3, 5, and 10 year bonds then rolling them into 10 year bonds each time a batch matures.  You could easily do this with longer terms as well.  But again, it ain't cheap...
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on October 21, 2014, 03:48:50 PM
Sorry, I totally forgot about this thread, but I'll try to explain my concerns.

Here's something to consider:

(http://i.imgur.com/aNWCszl.png)
Vanguard Long-Term Bond

and

(http://i.imgur.com/WQ5dbLr.png)
20 year Treasury rate

So when the fund started, it was sold at $10/share.  As interest rates rose, the price dropped.  When the interest rates went down, the price rose.  It's not a one to one ratio because 20 year is your longer-term bond, so the interest rates are higher, but the volatility is also higher.  In the meantime, the 1 year, 2 year, 5 year 7 year and 10 year are acting differently, but follow similar trends.

In January 1999 the fund was valued at $11.40/share.  In December 1999 the fund was valued at $9.77/share.  That's a 15% loss while the 20 year Treasury rate went from 5.3% to 6.9%.  Now 20 year Treasuries are at 2.68%.  It's not hard to imagine a loss in confidence in the bond market brought about by municipalities like Detroit, Chicago, Providence, and Cincinnati going into bankruptcy and defaulting.  Nor is it hard to imagine countries like Greece, Spain, Argentina, and Ireland defaulting on their debt.  That loss of confidence spreads and becomes a contagion since countries like Germany and Great Britain hold Spanish and Greek debt.  It impacts the banking sector and their solvency since they're also invested in the bonds.  As they shuffle their money around, interest rates rise and with that, there goes your value in your bond portfolio.

And if that long decent in interest rates doesn't make you uncomfortable, you're a hopeless optimist. ;)

If you really want an injection of optimism, try this podcast (http://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-256-a-conversation-with-john-michael-greer/). (Note: vapid sarcasm in that statement)

Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on October 22, 2014, 09:59:22 AM
Sorry, I totally forgot about this thread, but I'll try to explain my concerns.

Here's something to consider:
...

Good call.  I guess when I went into bonds it was mostly short term, so I never saw any of these issues.  Makes sense with longer term bonds.

I really should diversify my bonds into more intermediate and longer term ones, but sounds like now is an awful time to start.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on October 22, 2014, 11:49:12 AM
Good call.  I guess when I went into bonds it was mostly short term, so I never saw any of these issues.  Makes sense with longer term bonds.

I really should diversify my bonds into more intermediate and longer term ones, but sounds like now is an awful time to start.
When interest rates get back up to 6% or higher, then you can start to slowly move into the longer term bonds.  My mom scored back in the 1980s when she bought some 10 and 30 year T-bills with 8-9% rates.  As rates came down in the 1990s she did really well.  Unfortunately, she also lusted for those high returns and as things matured, she went into some South American bonds that really beat her up badly, too, because they defaulted or used hyperinflation to eliminate their debts.  The lesson I've taken away is diversity; in nation, region, type, duration, and vehicle.  That means gold, silver, land, stocks, growth mutual funds, value mutual funds, equity income funds, short term bond funds, CDs, traditional bank savings, IRA, Roth IRA, medium term bonds, international bond....  The hope is something will be up when you need money and you won't have to sell something else at a loss.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on October 22, 2014, 02:19:33 PM
When interest rates get back up to 6% or higher,

When rates go back up that high it will be game over. At that level we'll won't be able to service the debt.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on October 22, 2014, 02:27:48 PM
When rates go back up that high it will be game over. At that level we'll won't be able to service the debt.
We can always service the debt.  It's called printing.  We're not Greece who is tied to a currency they can't inflate. 

The solution isn't always pretty, but never doubt the ability of bankers to keep the giant wheel turning.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on October 22, 2014, 02:50:09 PM
We can always service the debt.  It's called printing.  We're not Greece who is tied to a currency they can't inflate. 

The solution isn't always pretty, but never doubt the ability of bankers to keep the giant wheel turning.

While I agree with that we won't be able to print our way out of anything when, not if, when we lose the status of the world reserve currency.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on October 22, 2014, 05:41:04 PM
Up, down, up, down, up down..

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on November 06, 2014, 02:44:52 PM
17,554.47 new record for DOW
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/06/us-markets-stocks-idUSKBN0IQ1A220141106

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on November 07, 2014, 09:09:45 AM
17,554.47 new record for DOW
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/06/us-markets-stocks-idUSKBN0IQ1A220141106

Cedar

The roller coaster continues.  Hold on tight folks, this is just the beginning!
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: bigbear on November 07, 2014, 11:30:26 AM
The European central bank recently printed some euros.  I probably should start another thread about the ECB move, but it applies here as well.  The gist behind QE and other devaluation tools is to "reflate" assets because of deflation (or more accurately: falling asset prices).  What assets?  Well, stocks for one.  So with the ECB pumping some more, Japan recently doing another round of their QE, the US leaving our QE open-ended (at least hinting at being more 'dovish' than in previous comments)... a case can be made that there is more upside in the stock market.

http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/europes-qe-quandary 
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on November 17, 2014, 09:01:30 AM
17,634

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Louisiana Suvivor on November 17, 2014, 06:39:56 PM
it keeps climbing......2009 anyone?
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on November 17, 2014, 06:53:28 PM
Closed at 17,647.75 today.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on November 17, 2014, 06:56:35 PM
it keeps climbing......2009 anyone?
2007-8 to be more precise. ;)
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on November 17, 2014, 07:12:40 PM
2007-8 to be more precise. ;)

September 15, 2008 to be even more precise.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/15/markets/markets_newyork2/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giETwqWTGXc

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on November 17, 2014, 07:22:34 PM
Silver...

Silver crashed 1 month prior to the 2008 Financial crisis and no one noticed.

October 2014, Silver Slumps to 55-Month Low
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-30/gold-holds-near-three-week-low-as-fed-ends-easing-amid-spdr-drop.html

Silver futures for delivery in December plunged 4.9 percent to $16.42 an ounce, the biggest drop since Sept. 20. The metal touched $16.33, the lowest since March 2, 2010.

Last quarter, gold slumped 8.4 percent as the dollar jumped 6.7 percent and equities surged to an all-time high. Yesterday, at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, the Fed maintained its pledge to keep interest rates near zero percent for a “considerable time.”



Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on November 17, 2014, 08:25:30 PM
September 15, 2008 to be even more precise.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/15/markets/markets_newyork2/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giETwqWTGXc

Cedar
Ahhh, but the trick with that date is that the market actually peaked in 2007, then fell in fits and starts until September 2008 when the bottom fell out. Thus, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. ;)
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Chemsoldier on November 18, 2014, 04:19:25 AM
Ahhh, but the trick with that date is that the market actually peaked in 2007, then fell in fits and starts until September 2008 when the bottom fell out. Thus, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. ;)
indeed, the number of interactions involved makes exact replication of events nearly impossible.  But larger trends might hold the same.

A high Dow, no indication of economic health. Metal prices are suggestive but not a rule. Unemployment can be suggestive but we have such a stilted definition of it now that we can't rely on it.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on November 18, 2014, 09:51:05 AM
Ahhh, but the trick with that date is that the market actually peaked in 2007, then fell in fits and starts until September 2008 when the bottom fell out. Thus, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. ;)

True that.
Two hours into the bell and it is at 17,687 currently. Close was 17,647 yesterday.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on November 21, 2014, 09:16:09 AM
Two hours from the starting bell and it is at 17,894.68 this morning, up 124.68.
Record close yesterday at 17,719.00

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on November 21, 2014, 09:23:18 AM
Sorry, this just seems so appropriate for this thread:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5akEgsZSfhg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5akEgsZSfhg)

 ;D
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 02, 2014, 08:57:01 AM
Record close yesterday at 17,719.00

High so far today 17,844.29.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 02, 2014, 05:02:25 PM
Another record 17,879.55

Today:
Brazil dropped -664.11  or  -1.27%    
Mexico  dropped -384.00 or -0.88%    

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 03, 2014, 09:50:19 AM
Hit a high of 17,905.33 so far today.

When I read an article by some dude a year or more ago, when he said that the DOW was going to hit 19,000 before it crashed, I thought he was bonkers, I was sure it would never get that high, especially in the time frame he stated.. now I am not so sure.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 03, 2014, 03:05:10 PM
Got as high as 17,924.15 today.
Closed record high today, over yesterday's record high at 17,912.62.

Gas prices got low before the 2008 crash didn't they? .. and the gas went under $2 a gallon today in Oklamoha City.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on December 03, 2014, 03:19:28 PM
Got as high as 17,924.15 today.
Closed record high today, over yesterday's record high at 17,912.62.

Gas prices got low before the 2008 crash didn't they? .. and the gas went under $2 a gallon today in Oklamoha City.

Cedar
Gas prices followed the crash because demand crashed along with the economy (employment fears and such):

(http://charts.gasbuddy.com/ch.gaschart?Country=Canada&Crude=f&Period=120&Areas=USA%20Average,,&Unit=US%20$/G)

(http://i.imgur.com/tuNA6Qs.png)
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 05, 2014, 12:38:02 PM
Was up to 17,991.19 today so far.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 09, 2014, 08:48:39 AM
Dow falls 200-plus points so far today.. and it dropped -100something yesterday.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on December 09, 2014, 09:29:45 AM
Zoom out to the 10 year view.   I've overlaid the ETFs that shadow the indexes just to reinforce the trend.

https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1418158800000&chddm=982192&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEARCA:DIA;INDEXDJX:.DJI;NYSEARCA:SPYV&cmptdms=0;0;0&q=NYSEARCA:SPY&ntsp=1&ei=vSKHVIPSOOnDigKIiIAQ (https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1418158800000&chddm=982192&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEARCA:DIA;INDEXDJX:.DJI;NYSEARCA:SPYV&cmptdms=0;0;0&q=NYSEARCA:SPY&ntsp=1&ei=vSKHVIPSOOnDigKIiIAQ)
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on December 09, 2014, 09:43:17 AM
Good news, oil is worthless! Grab that second Hummer!

I don't think people have realized how deep this recession is. Energy gluts are usually a bad sign for manufacturing. I'm seeing signs that global demand is down.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on December 09, 2014, 09:49:37 AM
Good news, oil is worthless! Grab that second Hummer!

I don't think people have realized how deep this recession is. Energy gluts are usually a bad sign for manufacturing. I'm seeing signs that global demand is down.

As long as the world has the population size it is, there will be some demand for energy.  There are many tiers to energy consumption, some elastic, a lot of it inelastic.

e.g. an old lady on fixed income may turn down her heat to save $$$, but she's not turning OFF the heat entirely.

Likewise with food production.  Tractors use fuel, as do processing plants, and delivering to points of sale.
Sure, a global depression will reduce leisure travel, and luxury goods (ski boats, RVs), but I don't think all of those "wants" are a big enough slice of the energy demand pie.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on December 09, 2014, 12:04:02 PM
If you're into the pseudo-science mumbo jumbo that is technical analysis, there are now 5 official Hindenburg Omens in the last 6 trading days.  Even if you aren't completely sold on that type of analysis, you can't ignore the really bad signals for the stock market.  It's going to have some pretty big turmoil within the coming months.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 10, 2014, 10:13:55 AM
Down -153.90 so far today, and although it is not dropping like a rock, it is emulating one.
Lost almost -400 points in a few days.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 10, 2014, 12:02:50 PM
Down -227.82 today so far..

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 10, 2014, 12:36:37 PM
Now down to -246.99

Update:
Now down to -278.78

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 10, 2014, 01:56:21 PM
Stocks tumbled Wednesday in the markets worst day since early October as a gloomy prediction for global oil demand sent crude prices plunging again. It was the third straight day of losses for the Dow and S&P 500 after a huge run-up since mid-October. As of 3:45 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones industrial average was down about 250 points, or 1.4%, to 17,552. The three-day drop puts the blue-chip index more than 400 points away from the 18,000 milestone it nearly hit Friday.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on December 10, 2014, 07:44:56 PM
So now it's a demand problem?  A few weeks ago it seemed the spin was a supply surplus. Given the unemployment numbers in the US, one would think the low oil prices would be a windfall for many other industries, not the least of which would be travel. But it would also impact disposable income for discretionary spending and shipping costs for industry.

Very odd to me.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on December 11, 2014, 06:49:15 AM
Ahhh, but the trick with that date is that the market actually peaked in 2007, then fell in fits and starts until September 2008 when the bottom fell out. Thus, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. ;)

Don't forget about the red flag that nobody seems to think about. The Stimulus Checks that the government gave to us. That Act was passed in Feb 2008, Bear Stearns was going under in Mar 2008 when JPM bought them.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on December 11, 2014, 07:05:27 AM
Don't forget about the red flag that nobody seems to think about. The Stimulus Checks that the government gave to us. That Act was passed in Feb 2008, Bear Stearns was going under in Mar 2008 when JPM bought them.

Some of us were shorting these entities and Uncle Sam took thousands from us. Real happy they stepped in.

So now it's a demand problem?  A few weeks ago it seemed the spin was a supply surplus. Given the unemployment numbers in the US, one would think the low oil prices would be a windfall for many other industries, not the least of which would be travel. But it would also impact disposable income for discretionary spending and shipping costs for industry.

Very odd to me.

Demand is down. Black Friday/Cyber Monday saw a roughly 11% y/y drop. Tech retail is down. Pakistani textile orders are down (I track Pakistani textiles as they tend to be one of my recession plays). Money is being sidelined. OPEC is declaring war on its competitors (Russia, US, Canada) but oil isn't the driver.

This economy is the "pay down debt, buy back shares, and hunker down" model. Capital investment is shrinking (unless you get the citizens to pay a tax for your stadium... too close to home).
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on December 11, 2014, 07:24:15 AM
Some of us were shorting these entities and Uncle Sam took thousands from us. Real happy they stepped in.
Demand is down. Black Friday/Cyber Monday saw a roughly 11% y/y drop. Tech retail is down. Pakistani textile orders are down (I track Pakistani textiles as they tend to be one of my recession plays). Money is being sidelined. OPEC is declaring war on its competitors (Russia, US, Canada) but oil isn't the driver.

This economy is the "pay down debt, buy back shares, and hunker down" model. Capital investment is shrinking (unless you get the citizens to pay a tax for your stadium... too close to home).

We would be better off if they had let the whole dang thing collapse. Debt eliminated across the board and a birth of a new credit based monetary system where banks do not control the money supply.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 11, 2014, 08:35:20 AM
And now it goes the other way +215.96 already this morning.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on December 11, 2014, 09:38:19 AM
7 Hindenburg Omens in the last 8 trading days, now.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 11, 2014, 10:52:08 AM
7 Hindenburg Omens in the last 8 trading days, now.

Can you do a quick run down on what that is?

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on December 11, 2014, 11:07:29 AM
It's real technical stuff.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

I try not to go heavy into technical trading or I'll put most people into a coma. Suffice to say it might be straddle option time in the market. These are just indicators that have been aggregated. Nothing more.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on December 11, 2014, 12:01:54 PM
I'm not sold.  When you are sampling something like temperature every day for years, the subject (temperature) of the sample never changes.

Trading PATTERNs of stock markets have radically changed in recent years.  With ubiquitous internet connectivity, ma and pa traders inject huge amounts of volatility.  Also, household brand names like "netflix" "apple" and "Tesla" often get traded in higher volumes just because lay people know of them.

Any idiot on the street might have an opinion on how successful apple or netflix will be next year, but a european re-insurance conglomerate would draw blank stares.

If we had a similar pool of traders trading for similar motivations over a long period of time, statistics about the markets would be more meaningful.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on December 11, 2014, 01:23:16 PM
I'm not sold.  When you are sampling something like temperature every day for years, the subject (temperature) of the sample never changes.

Trading PATTERNs of stock markets have radically changed in recent years.  With ubiquitous internet connectivity, ma and pa traders inject huge amounts of volatility.  Also, household brand names like "netflix" "apple" and "Tesla" often get traded in higher volumes just because lay people know of them.

Any idiot on the street might have an opinion on how successful apple or netflix will be next year, but a european re-insurance conglomerate would draw blank stares.

If we had a similar pool of traders trading for similar motivations over a long period of time, statistics about the markets would be more meaningful.

High frequency traders, Hedge Funds, and Central Banks (Namely the FED) are largely responsible for today's current market. Ma & Pa investors, aka you and I, are just pawns in the game.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on December 11, 2014, 01:41:55 PM
High frequency traders, Hedge Funds, and Central Banks (Namely the FED) are largely responsible for today's current market. Ma & Pa investors, aka you and I, are just pawns in the game.

True, but many of the above you listed weren't really a factor in trade volumes a couple decades earlier.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on December 11, 2014, 01:56:04 PM
True, but many of the above you listed weren't really a factor in trade volumes a couple decades earlier.

Oh I'm not saying that at all. I'm just point out the main factors and that being said some of the old tech models don't jive well with them.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 12, 2014, 08:23:17 AM
Pre-market was -69 when  I looked about 6pm last night, so I was not surprised when it dropped like a rock at bell this morning.

Down -124 to 7,469.25 by 10 am

Oil drops below $60

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on December 12, 2014, 08:31:22 AM
Can you do a quick run down on what that is?

Cedar

I would sum it up briefly by saying it measures volatility in the market.  Lots of new highs with simultaneous new lows within a certain percentage of all the publicly traded securities, among some other factors, can be a sign of an unhealthy market.  It's not a basket you put all your eggs into, but rather it's just another one of those potential signs of bad things coming.

We're up to 8 H.O.'s out of the last 9 trading days, and by the time today is over it'll probably be 9/10.  This is unprecedented in the last 25 years, so who knows what it means.  Maybe a small correction is coming, or maybe a huge one is.  Whatever it is, though, probably won't be good.  The "when" is also anyones guess.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 12, 2014, 08:35:40 AM
Found an article on it with pictures
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-10/some-market-folks-are-turmoiling-6th-hindenburg-omen-spotted

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 12, 2014, 09:14:53 AM
10:00 am  -124.00
11:00 am  -181.48
11:00 am  -182.64
11:02 am  -188.02
11:03 am  -191.12
11:26 am  -202.41
11:27 am  -207.57
11:29 am  -214.69
11:29 am  -217.19
11:31 am  -218.09




http://www.cnbc.com/id/102263988#.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30445420

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 12, 2014, 11:55:45 AM
12:09pm  -225.80
12:07pm  -231.06
12:08pm  -233.68
12:14pm  -235.64

Was up to 17,991.19 today so far.

Low today today so far, 7 days later
17,357.30 Lost 634 points in 7 days

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Josh the Aspie on December 12, 2014, 12:01:07 PM
I'm glad I've been focusing my own investments in the direction of taking care of things in my personal life, and making sure debts are paid off.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 12, 2014, 12:12:53 PM
My mom keeps pressuring me to putting my savings into stocks... even as of last night when she called. I told her I wanted to buy 7 acres as an investment I have had my eye on.. and she is like "The stocks are so much better".. I am like... Nooooo... I still have the land and it is usable if land tanks.. She is like "You have 100 acres!", I am like.. "Maybe SP would like 7 acres of her own one day? And it has 15 yr old trees on it.. when she is old enough, it might do some good towards her college." (I knew that would get mom to shush).

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 12, 2014, 01:28:19 PM
Selling slammed stocks on Friday as the deepening rout in oil took a heavier toll on investors' confidence. European stocks cratered, with major benchmarks losing 2.5% or more. As of 2:16 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are lower. The Dow is falling the most -- off 1.1%, or about 200 points.  In Europe, benchmarks in Britain, Germany and France -- the FTSE, DAX and CAC 40, respectively -- hurtled down 2.5% or a little more.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/12/12/stocks-friday/20295995/

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on December 12, 2014, 01:29:37 PM
My mom keeps pressuring me to putting my savings into stocks... even as of last night when she called. I told her I wanted to buy 7 acres as an investment I have had my eye on.. and she is like "The stocks are so much better".. I am like... Nooooo... I still have the land and it is usable if land tanks.. She is like "You have 100 acres!", I am like.. "Maybe SP would like 7 acres of her own one day? And it has 15 yr old trees on it.. when she is old enough, it might do some good towards her college." (I knew that would get mom to shush).

Cedar

Good for you Cedar. Land is something most people want but few people have. Now if we could just make property taxes illegal nationwide...........
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on December 12, 2014, 01:32:55 PM
My mom keeps pressuring me to putting my savings into stocks... even as of last night when she called. I told her I wanted to buy 7 acres as an investment I have had my eye on.. and she is like "The stocks are so much better".. I am like... Nooooo... I still have the land and it is usable if land tanks.. She is like "You have 100 acres!", I am like.. "Maybe SP would like 7 acres of her own one day? And it has 15 yr old trees on it.. when she is old enough, it might do some good towards her college." (I knew that would get mom to shush).

Cedar

Generally you can't go wrong investing in land, assuming you aren't taking on debt+interest rate to do it.

Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 12, 2014, 01:43:27 PM
3:39pm -268.22
3:40pm -276.47
3:41pm -280.54
3:42pm -283.05
3:47pm -289.21
3:53pm -294.77
3:53pm -300.48
3:59pm -306.07
4:01pm -308.06
4:03pm -309.15
4:04pm -312.04  (isn't it supposed to have the bell ring at 4? or is this residual stuff?)
4:08pm -315.51


Looks like pre-market is -253.00 already for Monday? I will look again tonight.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 12, 2014, 01:44:20 PM
Generally you can't go wrong investing in land, assuming you aren't taking on debt+interest rate to do it.

I always pay cash. Except 2 houses ago, I was $0 down, and made double payments.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 15, 2014, 10:10:03 AM
11:33am -140.29
11:56am -159.91

Went down to 17,115.28 today. A week ago was almost to 18,000.



See Russia's Ruble went down 8% today?

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on December 15, 2014, 10:29:20 AM
11:33am -140.29
11:56am -159.91

Went down to 17,115.28 today. A week ago was almost to 18,000.
See Russia's Ruble went down 8% today?

Cedar

"Dec 12 (Reuters) - Banks are responding to tumbling crude prices by trimming the value of oil reserves tied to credit lines, possibly causing a cash crunch for some highly-leveraged U.S. exploration and production firms.
With U.S. crude production still rising and the oil cartel OPEC showing no willingness to cut output to curb global oversupply, there is little to suggest that prices will rebound soon from a 40 percent slide since June
Lower reserve valuations would reduce the amount of credit available. When banks next reassess loans, which they typically do twice a year in October and April, smaller publicly traded oil companies with heavy debt and largely used up credit lines could see some financing dry up.
"They may be able to refinance debt. But I don't think anybody is going to be able to add on significantly more debt," said Christian Ledoux, a senior portfolio manager at San Antonio-based South Texas Money Management."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/15/oil-prices-credit-idUSL1N0TW20020141215 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/15/oil-prices-credit-idUSL1N0TW20020141215)

This could end badly. Very badly.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 15, 2014, 11:56:43 AM
Oil sinks below $57 as stocks dive into red.  European markets were hammered.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/12/15/stocks-monday/20423839/

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on December 15, 2014, 02:25:03 PM
This could end badly. Very badly.

I guess that all depends on what the definition of "end" is, and how far off in the future it occurs.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on December 15, 2014, 02:34:59 PM
This could end badly. Very badly.

Not if you're covering shorts right now after selling off last month.  ;D All cash shortly and looking to buy those worthless oil stocks.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 16, 2014, 04:44:12 PM
Down  -111.97 today, finished at 17,068.87. Drop blamed on oil and ruble.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 17, 2014, 04:24:10 PM
+320.30 today at the peak, closed at 17,356.87.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 18, 2014, 02:36:59 PM
+421.28 Closing 17,778.15

Today's excuse is, ""The reality is markets were hit with we're not sure what's happening and why, as oil has been acting as something akin to a global interest rate. The good news is the Fed is aware of what is going on, and they want to be friendly, so people are hopefully in better cheer," said Jack Caffrey, equity portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan. Investors applauded the Federal Reserve's pledge that it would be patient in increasing interest rates. "

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on December 18, 2014, 03:32:13 PM
Half of yesterdays buying were shorts covering.  Always ironic when a large portion of an upward swing is from pessimistic people assuming the market is going down.

Haven't looked into what the situation was today.  The Fed is stepping in hard, lately - that much is certain.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: bigbear on December 18, 2014, 07:40:53 PM
"Dec 12 (Reuters) - Banks are responding to tumbling crude prices by trimming the value of oil reserves tied to credit lines, possibly causing a cash crunch for some highly-leveraged U.S. exploration and production firms.
...
Lower reserve valuations would reduce the amount of credit available. When banks next reassess loans, which they typically do twice a year in October and April, smaller publicly traded oil companies with heavy debt and largely used up credit lines could see some financing dry up.

So highly leveraged firms will either go bankrupt or be targets of buyouts. 
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: CharlesH on December 18, 2014, 07:56:55 PM
Not if you're covering shorts right now after selling off last month.  ;D All cash shortly and looking to buy those worthless oil stocks.
 
  What does it mean to cover shorts?  Is that a gamble on the market going up or down?
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Beetle on December 18, 2014, 08:12:47 PM
The Feds have their foot smashed on the gas pedal till the engine blows up.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Beetle on December 18, 2014, 08:15:14 PM
3:39pm -268.22
3:40pm -276.47
3:41pm -280.54
3:42pm -283.05
3:47pm -289.21
3:53pm -294.77
3:53pm -300.48
3:59pm -306.07
4:01pm -308.06
4:03pm -309.15
4:04pm -312.04  (isn't it supposed to have the bell ring at 4? or is this residual stuff?)
4:08pm -315.51


Looks like pre-market is -253.00 already for Monday? I will look again tonight.

Cedar

  I know it's weird I've seen go late also, they must have a little leeway somehow.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Josh the Aspie on December 18, 2014, 10:49:46 PM
 
  What does it mean to cover shorts?  Is that a gamble on the market going up or down?

To "short" is to bet on the market going down.  To do so, you borrow a share from a trading company that owns that share, with the agreement to provide them with another share.  You then sell that share.

To "cover" the short is to buy the corresponding share that you will use to pay back your trading company.

So if the value of a stock is $1000, but I predict it will go down, I will borrow a stock (not paying for it), and sell the stock for $1000.
When the market is at $800, I may then buy another stock, and use that to pay back the loan, thus covering my debt, and making $200.
If, however, after selling at $1000, if the price goes up to $1100, and the term of the loan expires, I must buy one at $1100, thus loosing $100.

In my understanding, "naked" shorts are where someone sells a stock they don't actually have (even a borrowed stock), with the intent of buying one later.  These "Naked" shorts, when possible, can be used as an attack on the share value of a company, to bankrupt the company, and negatively affect the economy to which it belongs.  This is part of why naked shorts are so often illegal or highly restricted... besides the inherently fraudulent nature of the transaction.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: CharlesH on December 18, 2014, 11:06:22 PM
Thanks Josh,  so if I am covering shorts then I am buying the shares that I will use to return the ones I borrowed to sell?  That would appear to be a move made when you think the shares are about as low as they will go, right?  That would explain the upward move the last few days.  It would also make sense that people with shorts would interpret the Feds announcement that they are in no hurry to raise interest rates as putting an effective floor on te market drop.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Josh the Aspie on December 18, 2014, 11:18:36 PM
Buying to cover would happen any time you think it is most advantageous to you.  This could be "before the price goes any higher" during a price increase, to cut your losses, or when you don't want to loose the gains you've made, and you think there's a large enough risk of that.

Keep in mind that this is the time of year that the "fiscal year" ends.  As a result, some companies may have covered stock to shore up year-end numbers in their own companies (be they mutual fund managers, or companies that hold stock in other companies).

Also, yes.  For whatever reason, the market seems addicted to low fed interest rates, so the fed choosing to stake it's position as "gradual" rather than go right into an increase may have caused some rebound.

I don't fully understand why the market is addicted to the low interest rates, but I have some suspicions.  One of which is that, the higher inflation goes, the more people would rather have money in stock than cash (thus driving up the market).  Also, a low interest rate reduces the risks of debt-based investment (which is a strategy I'd never consider using myself).

Also, any company with debt will have a more expensive time borrowing, which may affect the price of their stocks if they are currently debt dependent.

So while removing the artificially depressed interest rates, and reducing inflation would be a good thing for the economy as a whole, the stock market addiction to both complicates things.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: CharlesH on December 18, 2014, 11:38:55 PM
I think part of the love affair with low rates is that it increases the opportunity cost of not being in stocks.  When rates are essentially zero there is little to gain from bonds and cash, so the big players will seek return from stocks.  Some of that money that would be loaned out as debt also ends up in real estate I'm sure, and other commodities.  But stocks are a real easy place to put cheap money.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on December 19, 2014, 10:55:55 AM
I think part of the love affair with low rates is that it increases the opportunity cost of not being in stocks.  When rates are essentially zero there is little to gain from bonds and cash, so the big players will seek return from stocks.  Some of that money that would be loaned out as debt also ends up in real estate I'm sure, and other commodities.  But stocks are a real easy place to put cheap money.

+1

That's exactly why market news reports respond to the FED holding down rates in a celebratory way.  The current system punishes those who hold cash.  I occasionally rationalize this for consumer purchases.  e.g. may as well buy a case of ammo today, it's only going to cost more later.

Hypothetically, if I could walk into BankOfAmerica and open a  C.O.D.  earning 5%, why would I ever risk anything in stocks? 
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Josh the Aspie on December 19, 2014, 11:09:17 AM
So in other words, using the illusionary health of the stock market as a proxy for the health of the nation's economy is a huge trap that many fall into.  The fact that this has become a cultural meme actually shifts it into the direction of being the truth, because of how things that affect the stock market scare average Americans, thus affecting other areas of the economy.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: CharlesH on December 19, 2014, 12:17:33 PM
So in other words, using the illusionary health of the stock market as a proxy for the health of the nation's economy is a huge trap that many fall into.  The fact that this has become a cultural meme actually shifts it into the direction of being the truth, because of how things that affect the stock market scare average Americans, thus affecting other areas of the economy.
 
Yep.  Seems like.  I use this opinion by not watching the news on the stock market or reacting to big moves in it.  I have a % of my wealth that is invested in index mutual funds (all more diverse than the S&P and at least one International fund with at least some exposure to markets around the world) and once a year in December I rebalance it with cash-like mutual funds so the % stays the same.  I am more heavily invested in real estate than most in my wealth bracket so big stock moves aren't as big a deal to me anyway, but even if I had more invested, I don't think I would try to game it.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 23, 2014, 08:47:51 AM
Dow Jones industrial average trades above 18,000 points for the first time - AP
Currently at 18,051.14

U.S. third-quarter GDP growth revised to 5.0%, highest in 11 years - MW

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: ResidentCelt on December 23, 2014, 09:29:15 AM
Dow Jones industrial average trades above 18,000 points for the first time - AP
Currently at 18,051.14

U.S. third-quarter GDP growth revised to 5.0%, highest in 11 years - MW

Cedar

BUY BUY BUY

or...

SELL SELL SELL

or...

AAAAAAHHHHHHHHH
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 23, 2014, 11:18:29 AM
The new high for today is 18,067.85. At this point, +106.53.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Beetle on December 23, 2014, 07:00:26 PM
Keep going!! All good for my pension.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 23, 2014, 07:13:29 PM
New record was High of 18,069.22. Closed at 18,024.17.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on December 26, 2014, 03:23:48 PM
It broke 18,103.45 today, settling at 18,053.71

In just more than a year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has blown through three 1,000-point levels, first cracking 16,000 in November 2013 and breaking through 18,000 this month. So when will the Dow touch 19,000? Not in 2015, Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at Hugh Johnson Advisors
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102296362

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on December 26, 2014, 03:29:16 PM
So when will the Dow touch 19,000? Not in 2015, Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at Hugh Johnson Advisors
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102296362

Never underestimate the market's ability to stay crazy longer than you can stay solvent.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on January 05, 2015, 09:42:11 AM
-273 point drop so far today

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Monday, with energy companies leading losses as the price of oil fell to its lowest since April 2009.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on January 05, 2015, 10:36:43 AM
12:30pm -307.93
12:31pm -313.26
12:32pm -314.64

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Beetle on January 05, 2015, 12:24:13 PM
Tomorrow it will bounce back up.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on January 05, 2015, 12:58:37 PM
Maybe..

2:56pm -336 at the moment.. oh wait...
2:58pm -343
3:00pm -348
3:01pm -354

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on January 14, 2015, 10:25:51 AM
Yesterday it went up 200-something I think.. and today dropping like a rock again.

12:22pm -279.45
Today's excuse is "Stocks plunge as retail sales, JPMorgan disappoint"

Cedar

PS.. I am not really caring what it is doing, I am watching for that trend of it starting to crash. I watched it in on the last one in October 2008
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on January 14, 2015, 11:59:35 AM
1:54pm -329.36

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Louisiana Suvivor on January 14, 2015, 03:45:25 PM
1:54pm -329.36

Cedar

 :beer: I'm waiting too. I love hearing the reason why it's happened.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: hackmeister on January 15, 2015, 07:47:38 AM
Swiss remove Euro-cap for the Franc:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30829917

Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Beetle on January 15, 2015, 09:58:22 PM
Swiss remove Euro-cap for the Franc:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30829917

  It's gonna get fun tomorrow.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on January 16, 2015, 03:13:15 PM
10 trading days so far in 2015, and 6 official Hindenburg Omens.  Likely another one today.  Combine with the H.O.'s from December, and we are talking about some very bizarre territory.  I expect plenty more crazy ups and downs over the coming weeks. 
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on January 27, 2015, 11:11:26 AM
DOW dropped -291.45 right out of the gate this morning. Went to below -300 for a bit. Erases All Post-QE Gains

U.S. stocks dropped sharply on Tuesday, with the Dow positioned for its worst hit since October, as corporations reported earnings that disappointed and orders for U.S. business equipment unexpectedly declined in December.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Beetle on January 27, 2015, 07:07:18 PM
I wonder how much fuel was saved by everyone being ordered off the roads?
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on January 28, 2015, 02:19:48 PM
Closed today at 17,191.37 Ended up -195.84

Cedar

Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on January 29, 2015, 10:47:43 AM
I subscribe to a free financial news service that crowd sources user contributed articles.  Admittedly a bunch of it is over my head, but I get regular updates that speculate what varies stocks or even markets will do.  I find this informative to track what the investor types think of the corporation I work at.

Anyhow a couple days ago I get such an alert for a commercial real estate stock I have in my IRA.  It's a big dividend paying equity.  Think it's 10-13%.
What was interesting is that a bunch of people sold it on the same day the dividend was paid (ex-dividend date).

So within 24 hours it appeared to drop 1.5%, BUT if you factor in the dividend amount paid out, that offset more than .9% of that share price drop.  So it lost only .55% which isn't a big deal for most people.

Things are not always equal for comparison, and assumptions lead to more assumptions and soon it's impossible to figure out what's really happening.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Beetle on January 29, 2015, 07:05:35 PM
Closed today at 17,191.37 Ended up -195.84

Cedar


Buy the dip.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on February 03, 2015, 05:13:02 PM
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged +305.3 points in the last 15 minutes of trade to close up 1.76 percent at 17,666.40. due to oil.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/03/investing/stocks-markets-oil-prices/

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on May 14, 2015, 08:30:46 PM
18,252.24  +191.75 today
S&P 500 hits record close, Nasdaq tops 5000

Dow's record closing high of 18,288.63, was set March 2 (I have not looked at it in awhile, didnt know it broke 18).

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on May 15, 2015, 09:12:20 AM
I still holding with we'll see DJIA at 20,000 before we get any major pull back/crash. Meanwhile Main Street has been in a depression since 2007 and some even say since 2005 (John Williams of Shadow Stats). Just for the record I called last October's pull back.  8)
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 21, 2015, 12:50:04 PM
DOW down
11:49 my time -392 just now
11:50 my time -403

16,589.16

Evidently it dropped -300some points yesterday as well?

Today Brazil and Mexico lost -600some points each
     FTSE 100    England    -180.24    -2.83%    
     Euronext 100    Europe    -51.03    -5.39%    
     CAC 40    France    -253.11    -5.18%    
     DAX    Germany    -307.67    -2.95%    1
     Swiss Market Index    Switzerland    -306.14    
        China    -156.55    -4.27%    
        Taiwan    -242.89    -3.02%

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 21, 2015, 01:12:50 PM
Everytime I look up at the screen to double check what I am posting for a number it keeps dropping more. 4th day of losses.

-419 12:10pm my time,
-430 12:11 pm my time
-439 12:11 pm my time
-444 12:11pm  my time
-449 12:13pm my time
-456 12:14pm my time
-472 12:15pm my time
-477 12:15pm my time

China's economy is said to be blamed
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/stock-market-plunge-dow-plunges-lowest-level-year-china-fears-n413916

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 21, 2015, 01:35:00 PM
-482 12:34pm my time
-485 12:34 pm my time
-500 12:36 pm my time

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Prodigy on August 21, 2015, 01:53:14 PM
One of the main economic/investor types - McHugh - that my father pays very close attention to (and forwards all the email updates) says this is officially the start of a major, 7 year bear market.  He says there will, of course, be steps up and down along the way, but it will go ever lower year after year for 7 years.  He'd been predicting it for some time now, but not just predicting an economic crash (since those are guaranteed to happen every so often) - instead predicting the coming 'Economic Ice Age'.  This is the first day he's said 'its officially started'.

Take a couple grains of salt with it.  He's one of those technical analysts, so its all historical graph analyzing. 
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 21, 2015, 01:57:39 PM
-519 at 12:57 my time

AT CLOSE
-531.14        -3.13%

"Officially a correction"

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: chad on August 21, 2015, 02:03:42 PM
Is that the blades I hear getting bent....
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: ncjeeper on August 22, 2015, 12:31:24 AM
Im glad I am in conservative funds.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 22, 2015, 05:13:02 AM
This number will change, but DOW 'pre-market' trading is sitting at -477.00 for Monday currently. Nasdaq is at -170.2 for pre-market and S&P -57.00.

They are saying that the three big factors are driving this week's worries:
1. Concerns are growing that China's economy is slowing down faster than its government has said.

2. Investors had been preparing for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate in September. However, the central bank has been sending mixed signals. That's dredging out the market's worst enemy: uncertainty.

3. Oil prices dropped below the key $40 level for the first time since 2009.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/21/investing/stocks-market-lookahead-august-21/

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: GreyWolf on August 22, 2015, 10:56:35 AM
For what it is worth Morgan Stanley predicts the FED will not raise interest rates.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Beetle on August 22, 2015, 06:25:22 PM
Diesel dropped a dime here over night.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: TexGuy on August 23, 2015, 03:02:55 PM
This number will change, but DOW 'pre-market' trading is sitting at -477.00 for Monday currently. Nasdaq is at -170.2 for pre-market and S&P -57.00.

They are saying that the three big factors are driving this week's worries:
1. Concerns are growing that China's economy is slowing down faster than its government has said.

2. Investors had been preparing for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate in September. However, the central bank has been sending mixed signals. That's dredging out the market's worst enemy: uncertainty.

3. Oil prices dropped below the key $40 level for the first time since 2009.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/21/investing/stocks-market-lookahead-august-21/

Cedar

I want to believe this is just a correction in the market, but China is huge. Everything that comes from the ground is down which screams people in China aren't buying it anymore.

However, I can't find much that says we should crash and burn .... yet.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on August 23, 2015, 03:17:43 PM
I exited China (investment wise) early in 2015. I've held a few positions with Chinese exposure (like Yum) but I got skeeved out by their shady economic practices. Empty cities no good.

Anybody else slowly buying oil companies? Traditionally in bears we load up on consumer goods but food and durables have been in a slump. It's hard noit to buy up oil stocks when they go on sale.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 24, 2015, 07:30:02 AM
Premarket, the DOW is at -852 this morning


Around the globe there is MASSIVE selloffs.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/24/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

China - The Shanghai Composite closed -8.5% down
London - London's FTSE 100 plunged -3%
Germany - Germany's DAX also fell -3%.
Japan - Tokyo's Nikkei ended the session -4.6% down
India - Down -5.9%



World markets plunge as China stocks crash
http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/23/investing/world-stock-markets/index.html

2 minute plunge of China's stock market
http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/09/investing/china-crash-in-two-minutes/index.html


Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 24, 2015, 07:35:49 AM
9:30am At the bell... DOW dropped -1,059 This was a 6% loss
9:36am -803.77
9:43am - 502.87      Sitting at 15,956.88
9:48am -613.06
9:49am - 679.06
9:51am -698.37
9:51am -707.81  (Oil price falls below $38 per barrel)
9:52am - 739.06 (They are saying this is the biggest selloff since 2009)
9:53am - 801.99

Dow dropped 777 in October 2009. That was the historic record apparently.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: hackmeister on August 24, 2015, 08:02:57 AM
This one has been long coming. Markets has been overvalued for some time now. There's a zero chance now that they'll raise interest rates before the end of year. The next question is this just a correction or something worse?
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 24, 2015, 08:05:22 AM
The next question is this just a correction or something worse?

I think something worse and not just the stock market. It is just a symptom.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: bigbear on August 24, 2015, 08:53:29 AM
Anybody else slowly buying oil companies? Traditionally in bears we load up on consumer goods but food and durables have been in a slump. It's hard noit to buy up oil stocks when they go on sale.

Oil probably doesn't have the same downside risk as other sectors.  They have already had a pretty good selloff.  Some time last week one of the majors made headlines for their spending in the Artic I believe. 

I think healthcare is still a pretty strong industry (Boomers still aging, immunotherapy having some good breakthroughs, FDA approving safe/effective drugs faster, Obamacare still spending money, insurance and pharma companies seeing quite a bit of M&A activity).  That said, the next few weeks will be choppy at best as 'winners' are sold to balance the 'losers'.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Beetlebum on August 24, 2015, 10:02:23 AM
Im glad I am in conservative funds.

On this note - where where would you guys park your 401K type funds for the near term? All my 401k/TSP (Thrift Savings Plan)/IRA accounts are in target funds (~2040). I've been thinking about moving them to more conservative funds in anticipation of a correction but haven't been comfortable with my knowledge base to make a move in attempt to time the market.

If its a simple correction, am I too late? Is better to just ride it out where I am? If this is a longer bear market (7 yrs as one above post predicted), what types of funds would you pick to ride it out (cash equivalents, leave it in target fund)? If you temporarily pick something more conservative, what key indicators are you looking/would you look for to get back into a more aggressive fund?

*I know this is highly personal. Personal situation is: see above for my timeline, no debt, emergency fund complete, employer matches 5% 401k
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on August 24, 2015, 10:25:46 AM
On this note - where where would you guys park your 401K type funds for the near term? All my 401k/TSP (Thrift Savings Plan)/IRA accounts are in target funds (~2040). I've been thinking about moving them to more conservative funds in anticipation of a correction but haven't been comfortable with my knowledge base to make a move in attempt to time the market.

If its a simple correction, am I too late? Is better to just ride it out where I am? If this is a longer bear market (7 yrs as one above post predicted), what types of funds would you pick to ride it out (cash equivalents, leave it in target fund)? If you temporarily pick something more conservative, what key indicators are you looking/would you look for to get back into a more aggressive fund?

*I know this is highly personal. Personal situation is: see above for my timeline, no debt, emergency fund complete, employer matches 5% 401k

Ride it out. You've got time on your side and your finances are in order.  It's easier said than done, though.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on August 24, 2015, 10:39:34 AM
Oil probably doesn't have the same downside risk as other sectors.  They have already had a pretty good selloff.  Some time last week one of the majors made headlines for their spending in the Artic I believe. 

I think healthcare is still a pretty strong industry (Boomers still aging, immunotherapy having some good breakthroughs, FDA approving safe/effective drugs faster, Obamacare still spending money, insurance and pharma companies seeing quite a bit of M&A activity).  That said, the next few weeks will be choppy at best as 'winners' are sold to balance the 'losers'.
Oil is risky in my mind.  There is so much investment in wells that cost millions to drill right now that won't pay for themselves enough to break even unless oil is over $70/barrel.  At sub-$40 right now, they're hemorrhaging.  While eventually it will come back, a substantial slowdown in consumption caused by a weak Chinese economy (second largest consumer of oil in the world) will hold prices low for a while; perhaps a very long while if this is a longer event.

Traditionally, the safer stuff is the stuff no one can live without, stuff like your supermarket and discount store stocks.  That said, right now I think the airlines are benefiting from all this cheap oil, as fares haven't really changed that much since oil was three times its current price.

I'm a pretty lazy investor.  I freak out at the big drops (although not with with one, yet), but generally keep a conservative portfolio. I'm a little over a decade from retirement, so I'm not super worried about the normal fluctuations, but I'll be honest, 2008-2009 freaked me out!

And besides, this is not a sign of the apocalypse:

(http://i.imgur.com/eiEHsOf.png)

People still want to buy right now, enough that this morning made a lot of people very, very rich after the morning sell off.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Max on August 24, 2015, 10:51:19 AM
I think something worse and not just the stock market. It is just a symptom.

Cedar

Bingo!!!! China is the driving factor on this go around. It may smooth out over the next couple of weeks but I'm keeping a close eye on October.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Sunshine on August 24, 2015, 11:57:40 AM
I think "they" will do everything in their power to halt losses, prop up the economy, and assure us that everything is just fine... until they absolutely can't anymore.  October concerns me as well.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: jm_sol on August 24, 2015, 03:13:12 PM
I've been in the heat all summer.. Gardening and foraging.    Maybe I've missed something..... What's October supposed to bring. Just curious
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: TexDaddy on August 24, 2015, 03:35:05 PM
The DJIA closed today at 15,871.35, down 588.40 today.

It closed at 18,312.39 on May 19th. Down 2,441.04 since then.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: busymomx3 on August 24, 2015, 04:45:33 PM
To answer the question above, October is supposed to bring a major correction to the market they say...  "they"

I've been watching this today with some curiosity.  Some "breakers" were tripped in special markets and trading was halted which could by what kept the dow from falling to far.  It's why those are there.  Eventually all the propping will catch up to them, that is the scary part IMO is that they just keep faking it.  Guess time will tell.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Beetle on August 24, 2015, 04:46:27 PM
I think it's going to go way up tomorrow. Buy the dip and hold on.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: TexGuy on August 24, 2015, 06:02:15 PM
9:30am At the bell... DOW dropped -1,059 This was a 6% loss
9:36am -803.77
9:43am - 502.87      Sitting at 15,956.88
9:48am -613.06
9:49am - 679.06
9:51am -698.37
9:51am -707.81  (Oil price falls below $38 per barrel)
9:52am - 739.06 (They are saying this is the biggest selloff since 2009)
9:53am - 801.99

Dow dropped 777 in October 2009. That was the historic record apparently.

Cedar

This isn't even close to a historic record percentage wise. Dollar wise yes, but you have to remember our current dollars are worth a lot less than they use to be.

Inflation is a killer and our politicians (and most American citizens) love inflation. Seems they will never learn.
 
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 24, 2015, 08:26:07 PM
This isn't even close to a historic record percentage wise. Dollar wise yes, but you have to remember our current dollars are worth a lot less than they use to be.

It was the largest one day drop however

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Sunshine on August 24, 2015, 08:36:37 PM
To answer the question above, October is supposed to bring a major correction to the market they say...  "they"

I've been watching this today with some curiosity.  Some "breakers" were tripped in special markets and trading was halted which could by what kept the dow from falling to far.  It's why those are there.  Eventually all the propping will catch up to them, that is the scary part IMO is that they just keep faking it.  Guess time will tell.

There's also been talk about the IMF meeting and considering adding a new reserve currency, which could have strong repercussions on the dollar value... but I just found this article that says it's been deferred:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/imf-defers-yuans-inclusion-sdr-basket-until-october-2016-1516233

Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 24, 2015, 09:47:26 PM
Currently:
China preopen has Shanghai down 6.4%, Shenzhen down 7%, ChiNext down 7.3%

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Beetle on August 24, 2015, 09:55:17 PM
Buy, Buy, Buy....
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 24, 2015, 10:52:27 PM
Monday:  Trading was halted 1,200 times Monday. The selling on Wall Street was so dramatic Monday that it triggered unprecedented emergency freezes on stocks.

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on August 25, 2015, 07:40:38 AM
I think it's going to go way up tomorrow. Buy the dip and hold on.
You win on the opening. ;)
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Sailor on August 25, 2015, 12:08:04 PM
As long as it moves, any direction I am good.  +4.09% acct balance today.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 25, 2015, 02:06:54 PM
Closed Tuesday at -204.91 ( down 1.29%)

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 25, 2015, 04:19:03 PM
Elsewhere today:
Shanghai SE Composite Index    China    -244.94    -8.26%    
Nikkei 225                                   Japan    -733.98    -3.96%    
Brazil Bovespa Stock Index           Brazil    -1,174.79  -2.57%    


Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on August 25, 2015, 10:31:50 PM
China shares fail to lift on the central bank's rate cut. The index had already fallen about 16% this week, sending shockwaves through global markets.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34059482

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on August 27, 2015, 06:38:27 AM
I was too busy chatting with my dad and playing with the baby to trade...  :) (here's to good problems). Had I been at the desk scanning "most active" Monday at 9:30 am I'd be done for the year.

With all the up/down (that seems to me like computerized trade fluctuations) I've seen my buy and hold portfolio be pretty flat. For all the panic it seems the disciplined value investors wouldn't even notice. If you've been buying "blue chips" at 10x forward P/E with ~3% yield you're still sitting happy at proper valuation.

Odd how a few of the wild swings were in banking.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on January 04, 2016, 08:54:36 AM
This morning.. Fears of a crash landing in China's economy sent stocks diving around the world on Monday ...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-set-for-tumble-at-open-as-china-fears-return-2016-01-04

10:51am -396.83 (2.28%)
10:55am -418.71
10:55am -425.86
11:02am -456.10


Closed now, but what they have closed at today
Australia      -21.80    
China      -242.92    
Hong Kong -587.28    
India      -494.19    
Japan      -582.73    
Taiwan      -223.80    
England     -144.36    
France    -127.52    
Germany    -459.69    
Switzerland -178.13    

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on January 07, 2016, 03:28:40 AM
DOW PREMARKET (before the bell rings ) for Thursday 1/7/2016
2:22am   -316.00
2:23am   -392.00
2:25am   -402.00
2:31am   -413.00
2:32am   -414.00
2:37am   -429.00
2:40am   -430.00
2:40am   -436.00
2:41am   -439.00

Today in Asia..
Leading European share markets fell 3% after trading was suspended on the Chinese markets for the second day running. Shares in China fell by 7%, triggering the "circuit-breaker" rule which is designed to stop panic selling. That came in the first 30 minutes of trading, making it China's shortest trading day on record. The slump prompted renewed panic on global market.

Other Asian markets closed at today:
Australia    -109.20    
China    -236.84    
Hong Kong -647.47    
India    -554.50    
Japan    -423.98    
Taiwan    -138.33    

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKBN0UL02H20160107

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: TNVolunteer on January 07, 2016, 05:40:09 AM
Should make for an interesting day. 

Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on January 07, 2016, 06:03:49 AM
I'm about 15% cash and looking... I don't know how a fall in Chinese raw material demand has any effect on American grocery retail. Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the market bounce after some irrational selloffs.

FWIW I actually have taken a defensive position as of December preferring predictable boring businesses like Exxon (XOM) and Consolidated Edison (ED) with solid dividends.

Not advice. Not adviser.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: TNVolunteer on January 07, 2016, 06:27:16 AM
Chinese raw material demand used to be an decent indicator of what the rest of world was buying and general global economic activity, or so I've been told.  I think now it is also an indicator of how their own economy is doing.   Appears to be the opposite of the rising tide lifting all boats as it pertains to theAmerican Grocery sector. 

Oil prices haven't found their level yet either.  Hit 10 year lows yesterday and suspect it may have yet a bit further to fall before bouncing back to whatever the market thinks its value is  and then starting a slow crawl back up over the remainder of the year.  Of course the Saudis and Iranians are doing the whole Shia v Sunni thing right now so will be interesting to see how that plays out in the oil market, if it does at all.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: bigbear on January 07, 2016, 07:39:16 PM
China removed the 'circuit breaker' rules in their market today.  That update goes into effect tomorrow.  I wonder how much of the sell off was preparation for no floor in China's stock market tomorrow...    :-\
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Beetle on January 08, 2016, 01:15:08 AM
Time to buy the dip!!!!
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: endurance on January 08, 2016, 12:19:17 PM
Wow!  Oil is down to $33.19 a barrel right now.  Unreal!

If the Saudi's continue with their plan to drive the shale oil folks out of business, they're going to bankrupt themselves.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on January 08, 2016, 12:24:33 PM
If the Saudi's continue with their plan to drive the shale oil folks out of business, they're going to bankrupt themselves.

We can always hope.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Chemsoldier on January 08, 2016, 12:25:09 PM
We can always hope.
Couldn't happen to nicer people...
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on January 08, 2016, 05:44:54 PM
Close today DOW 16,346.45    Price decrease -167.65

I have no idea how detrimental that India's stock market is, but it went down -1,183.21    

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: TNVolunteer on January 09, 2016, 08:25:40 AM
Quote
If the Saudi's continue with their plan to drive the shale oil folks out of business, they're going to bankrupt themselves.

It is also messing with a lot other "friends" as well.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: gopack84 on January 11, 2016, 12:14:59 PM
Speaking of "couldn't happen to nicer people"...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/01/11/19-big-companies-profits-vanish/78633406/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/01/11/19-big-companies-profits-vanish/78633406/)

Quote
Materials companies are also getting hammered as a global economic slowdown is reducing prices and demand for many supplies. Monsanto, a seed and agricultural products company, is expected to lose 23 cents a share on an adjusted basis during the quarter, down from a profit of 47 cents a share in the same period in 2014.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on February 08, 2016, 07:17:36 AM
DOW premarket this morning is -173.00 Opens in 16 minutes.

Europe markets close in 2 hours, but are all triple digit down. India was over -300 down.

From a headline this morning:
Global Currencies Collapsing
http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/08/news/economy/dollar-global-currency-winners-losers/index.html

EDIT: At opening bell, the DOW dropped -223.12
Now at - 274.14

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Alan Georges on February 08, 2016, 06:00:03 PM
Small closing rally, ended at 16,027, down a net 178.  Not a catastrophe, but... well, it's hard to see any upsides for the near future.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on April 19, 2016, 07:23:19 AM
Anybody else slowly buying oil companies? Traditionally in bears we load up on consumer goods but food and durables have been in a slump. It's hard noit to buy up oil stocks when they go on sale.

Well I guess I was 18 hours off the bottom in XOM. If you've been riding it from $68 to $85 with me (ignoring the dividend) I'll take that 10% finder's fee right about now  ;) ...

The DJIA is eying 18,000 this morning.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on April 20, 2016, 03:37:50 PM
Well I guess I was 18 hours off the bottom in XOM. If you've been riding it from $68 to $85 with me (ignoring the dividend) I'll take that 10% finder's fee right about now  ;) ...

The DJIA is eying 18,000 this morning.

I re-allocated some of my IRA.  This last time around didn't get any XOM, but got some RGR in the low $60 range.  During election years, the fear of an anti-gun candidate usually causes some panic buying.  I don't own enough to change my life, but if I can flip it for a small gain it's an ego boost.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Tyler Durden on April 20, 2016, 04:32:29 PM
Well I guess I was 18 hours off the bottom in XOM. If you've been riding it from $68 to $85 with me (ignoring the dividend) I'll take that 10% finder's fee right about now  ;) ...

The DJIA is eying 18,000 this morning.

I was about to buy COP when it was around $32 per share, but opted for CNP instead, which has gone virtually nowhere.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on April 20, 2016, 05:30:02 PM
I just get irritated by investors who seem to "know" there is no future in the stock market, whine and wail that they can't see opportunity, continually tell the few of us with the stones to face the fight we're wrong, and that I'm a buffoon to try "timing the market" as if there aren't market circumstances that favor certain industries.

I'm about 15% cash and looking... I don't know how a fall in Chinese raw material demand has any effect on American grocery retail. Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the market bounce after some irrational selloffs.

FWIW I actually have taken a defensive position as of December preferring predictable boring businesses like Exxon (XOM) and Consolidated Edison (ED) with solid dividends.

Not advice. Not adviser.

Yeah that meant I bought General Mills (GIS) at $54.50. Do your homework on where GIS, XOM, and ED are today. I guess it's just random luck that people like me can make money doing the investment game. It's not like we have endless files of analysis in Excel and Matlab.

Just to put it on the table, my infant daughter "manages" a $20k portfolio. Other girls play Disney, mine owns Disney. And at a 1.4% dividend and all the Star Wars you can dream of she's not a princess; she's a baller.

I guess this post is 120% snark. But you can read the posts of doom and gloom and mine about what to buy and when. See who was right. If you followed my thoughts you're sitting on a nice gain. If you balked at opportunity, well...

Again, sorry to be cruel. But there's that really scary thing when you're right...
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on April 20, 2016, 08:36:58 PM
I'm somewhere in the middle when it comes to stock market investing. 

I've got nothing but admiration for successful traders, but I have neither the stones, the smarts, the time, or the desire to actively participate in the stock market, and I also lack confidence in my ability to identify consistently top-performing professionals to do it for me (actually I trust them less than I trust myself, but I'm trying to be charitable).  However, I also recognize that there are superior returns to be had in the market over the long-term, and to capture a good chunk of that return I've been buying and holding (mind-numbingly boring) index funds for 20+ years.  And I'm not changing anything.

Could I do better as an active investor?  Possibly, but only with much time, and effort (to make up for my lack of skill and smarts), as well as luck.  Could I do worse?  Definitely.  All you have to do is look at the performance of the overwhelming majority of actively traded funds when compared to their benchmark indexes.  Then look at the real returns earned from putting money under a mattress in a bank.

I'm not saying this to be argumentative or bend any of the active traders out of shape, but rather to show those sitting on the sidelines that there's a middle path.  Saving and investing for the time when we are no longer able to work is a vital prep, in my opinion, and that goal is difficult to achieve without the benefit of compounded stock market returns.

For shits and giggles, check out the Warren Buffet vs the Hedge Fund bet:  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-will-win-his-big-hedge-fund-bet-2016-02-18 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-will-win-his-big-hedge-fund-bet-2016-02-18)
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on April 20, 2016, 09:08:24 PM
I'm somewhere in the middle when it comes to stock market investing. 

I've got nothing but admiration for successful traders, but I have neither the stones, the smarts, the time, or the desire to actively participate in the stock market, and I also lack confidence in my ability to identify consistently top-performing professionals to do it for me (actually I trust them less than I trust myself, but I'm trying to be charitable).  However, I also recognize that there are superior returns to be had in the market over the long-term, and to capture a good chunk of that return I've been buying and holding (mind-numbingly boring) index funds for 20+ years.  And I'm not changing anything.

Could I do better as an active investor?  Possibly, but only with much time, and effort (to make up for my lack of skill and smarts), as well as luck.  Could I do worse?  Definitely.  All you have to do is look at the performance of the overwhelming majority of actively traded funds when compared to their benchmark indexes.  Then look at the real returns earned from putting money under a mattress in a bank.

I'm not saying this to be argumentative or bend any of the active traders out of shape, but rather to show those sitting on the sidelines that there's a middle path.  Saving and investing for the time when we are no longer able to work is a vital prep, in my opinion, and that goal is difficult to achieve without the benefit of compounded stock market returns.

For shits and giggles, check out the Warren Buffet vs the Hedge Fund bet:  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-will-win-his-big-hedge-fund-bet-2016-02-18 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-will-win-his-big-hedge-fund-bet-2016-02-18)

I can simply say 100% agree.

Those of us in the market trenches are fighting tooth and nail for the best investment. It's a hard game. I will gloat when I win...

I am furious over the bank controlled funds that have load, don't pay dividends, and require notice to move YOUR money. I'm not as pissed over well run funds like those from Vanguard. Think through who has control of YOUR money.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on April 21, 2016, 02:49:16 AM
It's a hard game. I will gloat when I win...

This is not a criticism, more of a broader rhetorical question regarding the determination of valid endpoints when it comes to any type of preparation for the future.  It's something I don't always have good answers for in my own life.

If you cashed out at the peak 8 years ago, before the crash, were you a winner then because you timed it perfectly?  Are you winning now?  Will you still be winning in 20 years when you want to retire?  Will your post-retirement performance stay ahead of inflation?  How much can you rely on past performance when trying to predict the future?

It seems like you rarely (never?) get to that place in life where you can a draw a line in the sand and say, "That's it, my plan was good, I executed flawlessly, I win.....and now I'll ride off into the sunset and live happily ever after."  You still have to figure out what you're going to do tomorrow and then crawl out of bed and try to make it happen.  There's no resting on your laurels, there's always that specter of life kicking you in the nuts and saying, "But what have you done lately?"
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on April 21, 2016, 07:09:07 AM
Every trader knows his number. I have more respect than to speak about it publicly. When I hit my number those in the vicinity will be enjoying a box of La Gloria Cubana cigars (my favorite) and a bottle of Kelt Christopher Columbus cognac. And I'll live out my days fat and happy on predictable CDs.

I'm not Gordon Gecko. My investments are not some black hole that eats my soul. They work for me.

What I'm getting at is the absolute furor I feel when I talk about trading. Gunsmiths know about guns, butchers know about meat, bakers know how to make bread but traders are just lucky assholes who do something meaningless that all the rest of us could have done if we only cared. Aesop could fill a book of modern investors who seem to go from "not possible" to "you're lucky" while ignoring the work put in.

I'm coming off a little harsh and I know it. I'm not even saying I made the best predictions. There's always a better investment. But I was kinda right. I usually don't talk about investing in this forum because it's not the place. Making money doesn't have the same sex appeal of MREs or learning how to sharpen a camp axe with one's teeth. I wish that everyone here had the guile of Crassus but alas...
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on April 21, 2016, 01:20:51 PM
If it's making you money, who cares what people think about your investing methods?

While I can't go as far as endorsing the methods of Crassus, I agree that making and managing money is an incredibly valuable survival skill that is underappreciated by the majority of survivalists/preppers. 
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: jimhcom on June 05, 2016, 10:20:42 AM
It is not the level of the market which you should concentrate on, it is its underlying fundamental's.
The market is simply a reflection of the overall economic situation, only in this case its value is artificially juiced by the fact that fixed income investments have been made a losing proposition.

The two factors that really need to be monitored are the interest rates and the chances of recession.
There is 0% chance of interest rates going down from here, and possibly a 50/50 chance of them increasing.  The chances of recession are growing every day as debt loads increase and world trade decreases.

Margin in the market has never been higher, and that is a big danger sign.  In addition, baby boomers who make up the largest demographic in the market have begun as of this year to be forced to make mandatory minimum withdrawals from their 401K's.  With millennial's financially struggling with student loans and almost a 3rd still living at home, it is doubtful they will be in position to purchase the equities that the boomers will be selling.

None of us can predict the future, but we all can assess the present and use critical thinking to calculate the most reasonable conclusion about what the evidence is telling us.... 
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on June 20, 2016, 05:32:50 PM
Mr. Positivity here... I've been hitting sell points on a lot of stocks I own in the past couple weeks. P/Es are way outside a "value" model and dividends have been chased lower, many below 3%, my cutoff for consideration.

I'm mildly fascinated with Verizon (VZ) if it can win its union fight (and the era of unions is as gone as Jimmy Hoffa) and the question of why AT&T (T) is able to keep a 4% dividend. Telecoms seem like an interesting sector.

I'll also say that I'm looking real hard at S&W (SWHC) due to political pressure.

In short, if you've been active you should be up about 30% in 2016 already. I'm keeping a lot of loose cash if I see these trades widen but the year is already a winner. I'm heavier cash right now than memory serves.

Not advice.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on June 24, 2016, 11:39:42 AM
Mr. Positivity here... I've been hitting sell points on a lot of stocks I own in the past couple weeks. P/Es are way outside a "value" model and dividends have been chased lower, many below 3%, my cutoff for consideration.

I'm mildly fascinated with Verizon (VZ) if it can win its union fight (and the era of unions is as gone as Jimmy Hoffa) and the question of why AT&T (T) is able to keep a 4% dividend. Telecoms seem like an interesting sector.

I'll also say that I'm looking real hard at S&W (SWHC) due to political pressure.

In short, if you've been active you should be up about 30% in 2016 already. I'm keeping a lot of loose cash if I see these trades widen but the year is already a winner. I'm heavier cash right now than memory serves.

Not advice.

I got scared and just sold off my SWHC.  Made almost 14% - and thought best to quit while ahead.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on June 24, 2016, 12:36:32 PM
I got scared and just sold off my SWHC.  Made almost 14% - and thought best to quit while ahead.

Better than a sharp stick in the eye! 14% is nothing to regret.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on June 24, 2016, 01:23:41 PM
 9:30am - 393.16 (2.18%)
 9:31am - 419.08 (2.33%)
 9:32am - 486.19 (2.70%)
 9:33am - 497.66 (2.76%)
 9:33am - 532.35 (2.96%)
 9:42am - 435.55 (2.42%)
 9:51am - 448.32 (2.49%)
10:02am - 364.74 (2.03%)
10:58am - 398.33 (2.21%)
11:21am - 464.18 (2.58%)
11:24am - 481.06 (2.67%)
12:39pm - 499.99 (2.78%)
12:50pm - 531.77 (2.95%)
  1:07pm - 523.34 (2.91%)
  3:18pm - 639.88 (3.55%)

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: bigbear on June 24, 2016, 02:00:31 PM
The day of Brexit -
The FTSE (main UK index) on 6/24... "only" down 3.15%. 

The DAX (main German index) on 6/24...  down 6.82%. 

Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on November 29, 2016, 07:54:04 AM
It is over 19,000 now.... crash? Or will it hit 20,000?

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on November 29, 2016, 10:24:02 AM
It is over 19,000 now.... crash? Or will it hit 20,000?

Cedar

Remember, financial experts usually track the S&P500, as it's a more accurate baseline for tracking the overall US economy than the DJIA.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI&ei=Rbk9WPGTCcKJ2Aa355rACA
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: surfivor on November 29, 2016, 11:21:40 AM

 I've never really understood the stock market .. It often reminded me of some kind of modern astrology
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on November 29, 2016, 11:35:27 AM
You mean the industrials are being bidded up after a surprise election where the winning candidate claimed he'd rebuild our crumbling industry? I'm stunned.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on November 29, 2016, 12:34:44 PM
I've never really understood the stock market .. It often reminded me of some kind of modern astrology

If you lived during ancient times, and your rulers made decisions regarding war/peace or when to harvest crops based on astrology, I bet you'd seek to understand it.

It might all be BS, but it impacts our lives just the same.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on January 02, 2017, 02:26:30 PM
19,819.60

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 20,000
Post by: bigbear on January 25, 2017, 08:01:24 AM
The Dow broke 20,000 this morning. 
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Cedar on January 26, 2017, 03:23:45 PM
Yuppers

Cedar
Title: Re: DOW broke 20,000
Post by: osubuckeye4 on January 26, 2017, 03:40:09 PM
The Dow broke 20,000 this morning.

Well, the race to 20 is over... DOW narrowly edged out the national debt. Nothing but smooth sailing from here on out.

#whatcouldpossiblygowrong
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: bigbear on April 25, 2017, 01:20:49 PM
DOW broke 21,000 today...  Up 250+ at this point.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on April 26, 2017, 02:02:36 PM
DOW broke 21,000 today...  Up 250+ at this point.

I made some mild adjustments in the retirement accounts.  Whenever things go big quickly, I like to harvest a little off the top and keep it in a money market.  Then when things dip I've got a little cash to buy more cheap.  It's not fool proof, but it's easy to understand.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on September 11, 2017, 06:27:45 PM
I've made a lot of money this summer trading the VXX intraday. It's been a buy/short pattern. High volatility. Trader's dream. I'm a bit worried about long term stability.

If anything I wrote above makes no sense, you probably shouldn't be in the stock market. If it does, you likely made the money too.

I am building a high dividend defensive position. I'll post more.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: CharlesH on September 11, 2017, 07:12:15 PM
If anything I wrote above makes no sense, you probably shouldn't be in the stock market. If it does, you likely made the money too.
 
Oops.  35 years in the market.  Bought. Held. Re-balanced once a year.  And mistakenly made a ton of money.  Never heard of that stuff you mentioned.  Just think if I'd gotten this advice at 18 and spent the last three + decades in a passbook savings account... would I be even richer???
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on September 11, 2017, 07:18:40 PM
 
Oops.  35 years in the market.  Bought. Held. Re-balanced once a year.  And mistakenly made a ton of money.  Never heard of that stuff you mentioned.

Me, too.  Except for the 35 part, I'm probably closer to 25 years.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on September 11, 2017, 07:40:55 PM
 
Oops.  35 years in the market.  Bought. Held. Re-balanced once a year.  And mistakenly made a ton of money.  Never heard of that stuff you mentioned.  Just think if I'd gotten this advice at 18 and spent the last three + decades in a passbook savings account... would I be even richer???

Me, too.  Except for the 35 part, I'm probably closer to 25 years.

Please, please ignore what I have to say about markets and trading. It's meant for short term people. I'm nervous about 'get rich quick'. A long slow strategy is still the best. Sorry you misunderstood.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on September 11, 2017, 07:59:08 PM
Of course as I think curiosity gets the better of me. I, too have a long term portfolio. I'm holding in it such names as Celanese (CE), Diageo (DEO), Con Ed (ED), Kimberly Clark (KMB), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and the Zweig Total Return (ZTR).

Curious what you guys are winning with.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on September 12, 2017, 01:06:10 AM
If anything I wrote above makes no sense, you probably shouldn't be in the stock market.

See the problem with statements like that is it scares off a lot of good people who deserve the investment returns that are only available in the stock market. 

These returns are easily accessible to the rest of us in the form of stupid-simple index funds.  Absolutely no trading skills required.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: CharlesH on September 12, 2017, 04:20:59 AM
Stupid simple index funds for me, too.  1/3+ S&P 500 and 1/3+ broader US Indexes and some broad internatoinal indexes.  As I approach 60 I have gradually moved towards having 1/4 in cash.  Once a year I rebalance everything to have the diversification I want.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on September 12, 2017, 05:13:41 AM
See the problem with statements like that is it scares off a lot of good people who deserve the investment returns that are only available in the stock market. 

These returns are easily accessible to the rest of us in the form of stupid-simple index funds.  Absolutely no trading skills required.

Say no more. I'll be mum on markets. I can save it for my mastermind group. I apologized. I can't do anything more. I recant anything I posted about the stock market. Clearly I was wrong and what I wrote should have no bearing on anyone ever as I was sloppy and misunderstood relating a trading position to general investing. I was trying to briefly explain the high volatility of late and how my best trades have been long/short the ultrashort. I'll keep these opinions to myself in the future.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: RitaRose1945 on September 12, 2017, 05:16:54 AM
 :popcorn:

Paying attention because all I have now is a mutual fund that I don't/wont touch and a Stash account with about 1/3 each in Moderate Mix, On Cloud Nine (cloud tech company mix), and Defending America (aerospace and defense manufacturers).
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: osubuckeye4 on September 12, 2017, 08:04:01 AM
Say no more. I'll be mum on markets. I can save it for my mastermind group. I apologized. I can't do anything more. I recant anything I posted about the stock market. Clearly I was wrong and what I wrote should have no bearing on anyone ever as I was sloppy and misunderstood relating a trading position to general investing. I was trying to briefly explain the high volatility of late and how my best trades have been long/short the ultrashort. I'll keep these opinions to myself in the future.

You can take your fancy stock market lingo with you and....

(http://3.images.southparkstudios.com/blogs/southparkstudios.com/files/2014/07/0701-GETOUT.jpg?quality=0.8)


(just trying to inject some humor)  8)

Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: bigbear on September 12, 2017, 12:46:05 PM
Of course as I think curiosity gets the better of me. I, too have a long term portfolio. I'm holding in it such names as Celanese (CE), Diageo (DEO), Con Ed (ED), Kimberly Clark (KMB), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and the Zweig Total Return (ZTR).

Curious what you guys are winning with.

401k is health, tech, and div heavy.
As far as my small brokerage account - XOM, ADXS, KMI, DIS.  ADXS is a small biopharma.  Hoping for the ovarian cancer panacea...

Me, too.  Except for the 35 part, I'm probably closer to 25 years.

Freelancer - curious how you classify your bitcoin holdings?  Similar to any of the index funds held for 25 years?  "Cash"/bullion?  Doesn't matter? 
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on September 12, 2017, 01:06:32 PM

Freelancer - curious how you classify your bitcoin holdings?  Similar to any of the index funds held for 25 years?  "Cash"/bullion?  Doesn't matter?

Bitcoin should be considered as FX trading in my opinion.  It's no more an investment than holding Euros, GBP or Yen, in place of US Dollars.
That said, many companies (my employer included) make insane amounts of profit by carefully pulling the levers on their foreign exchange adjustments.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on September 12, 2017, 01:27:07 PM
(just trying to inject some humor)  8)

I appreciate it but I'm still done. After years of posting my own strategies and thoughts in an effort to help others it's a bit irritating to be told that my ideas are literally preventing people from achieving the results they rightly deserve. That's kind of a big statement and it will stick with me.

There are other groups I am part of who more openly discuss investing. I can go there. If the consensus around here is that educating oneself to better invest is a waste of time and one can do the same with index funds, that's fine with me. Hell, I own a few that fit very specific metrics and offer something unique to my portfolio. But that involves reading the prospectus and quarterly reports and doing homework on the manager(s) so it likely won't be a popular strategy.

I've always felt that wealth building is an integral part of survival. But it's something I can do outside this forum. And that's fine.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on September 12, 2017, 02:58:33 PM
But that involves reading the prospectus and quarterly reports and doing homework on the manager(s) so it likely won't be a popular strategy.


sounds like a fantasy football draft
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: FreeLancer on September 12, 2017, 11:53:51 PM
Freelancer - curious how you classify your bitcoin holdings?  Similar to any of the index funds held for 25 years?  "Cash"/bullion?  Doesn't matter?

I classify it as the type of asset you'd only risk 1-2% of your net worth on and just hold it for the next 10 years.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on September 13, 2017, 06:59:12 AM
A pile of dollars, euros, yen, yuan, Swiss franks, etc. would be savings. A pile of Bitcoin is an asset and an investment because it's... a... currency.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on September 13, 2017, 12:03:12 PM
A pile of dollars, euros, yen, yuan, Swiss franks, etc. would be savings. A pile of Bitcoin is an asset and an investment because it's... a... currency.

please paraphrase

All you listed are currencies of a sort.  If you need to use a given currency for daily subsistence (paying rent, buying food), an accumulation of that currency is savings in my simple mind.

If I own a bit coin, and need to buy a month of groceries at CostCo, that's not immediately useful before I liquidate and convert to USD.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: bigbear on September 13, 2017, 12:35:34 PM
I appreciate it but I'm still done. After years of posting my own strategies and thoughts in an effort to help others it's a bit irritating to be told that my ideas are literally preventing people from achieving the results they rightly deserve. That's kind of a big statement and it will stick with me.

There are other groups I am part of who more openly discuss investing. I can go there. If the consensus around here is that educating oneself to better invest is a waste of time and one can do the same with index funds, that's fine with me. Hell, I own a few that fit very specific metrics and offer something unique to my portfolio. But that involves reading the prospectus and quarterly reports and doing homework on the manager(s) so it likely won't be a popular strategy.

I've always felt that wealth building is an integral part of survival. But it's something I can do outside this forum. And that's fine.

My thoughts:  Agreed that it's an integral part of survival.  Most here seem to like index funds that's a completely legit thought process.  Some like to/have the ability to go a bit further.  I would hope readers know who they are.  They are reading some random dudes thoughts on the internet.  For all I know you're Sue from Zambia offering investment advice based results of chicken sacrifices to a fetish.

I know I'm not the arbitrage guy.  I'm not the options trader.  I'm not a day trader.  I'm not a swing trader.  I have no system other than try not to follow my emotions.  The shortest I've held a stock was about 6 months.  The longest has been about 10 years (pretty my stock ownership lifetime - KMR/KMI).  I especially like hearing others thought on trends, sector expectations, etc... 

What sites/forums do you use for investment talk?  Ihub?

I classify it as the type of asset you'd only risk 1-2% of your net worth on and just hold it for the next 10 years.

That's how I would classify it too.  Essentially a high risk/high reward like a long term call or put option.

please paraphrase

All you listed are currencies of a sort.  If you need to use a given currency for daily subsistence (paying rent, buying food), an accumulation of that currency is savings in my simple mind.

If I own a bit coin, and need to buy a month of groceries at CostCo, that's not immediately useful before I liquidate and convert to USD.

He was being sarcastic pointing out an inconsistency between bitcoin's desire to be considered a currency and the reality of how people who own bitcoin view in their portfolio.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on September 13, 2017, 12:38:24 PM
please paraphrase

All you listed are currencies of a sort.  If you need to use a given currency for daily subsistence (paying rent, buying food), an accumulation of that currency is savings in my simple mind.

If I own a bit coin, and need to buy a month of groceries at CostCo, that's not immediately useful before I liquidate and convert to USD.

True. But you could say the same thing about any foreign currency. My point was to show how Bitcoin is perceived as both a currency and an investment, but never savings which is the only thing held currency can be. Nobody calls their bank account an investment.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: bigbear on September 29, 2017, 11:02:12 AM
Dow's over 22,000.  Closed at an all time high yesterday.  "They" say it's related to tax reform expectations.  Guess we'll see over the next few months...
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on October 03, 2017, 11:23:26 AM
remember folks, DIJA != US economy

It's just an index of traditional stocks that hold sentimental value.

The S&P 500 is much closer to an index of reality
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: David in MN on October 19, 2017, 03:07:53 PM
If it sounds like Klingon, just ignore it. If you think me some financial wizard, bear in mind I'm essentially a 1950s housewife. I literally have a cheesecake in the oven. I'll even double down by admitting I have never successfully called a top. I am much better at the math for finding a bottom.

The Dow, Nas, and S&P are all up amazingly this year. And from what we read confidence is at an all-time high.

All traders follow the VXX. The VXX is the ticker symbol to buy in to profit from volatility. In a nutshell it tracks the CBOE VIX futures. If that means nothing to you, you're not alone. In English that means the more volatile the market, the higher the VIX, the higher the VXX. Basically if you're in turbulent times buying the VXX is a defensive strategy.

In the past 5 years the VXX has gone from ~$800 to ~$34.

What does this mean? It means that the market is doing what a lot of experts tell you it does. Buy a broad fund and hold and watch it slowly chug up. Slow, sustained, boring growth. Essentially the market is doing what every 401 investor loves. Traders like me hate it. We prefer high volatility where short term buying and shorting yield quick explosive returns. We don't care if the market is up or down as long as it moves quick.

But there's another interpretation. We're watching the value set a record high while the risk is priced at a record low!!!! Said differently, that like the market is telling us that not only do we have record highs but we deserved them. That 23,000 is just a stepping stone as this trend will continue.

Wait? Low volatility? Toys R Us just filed bankruptcy. Sears is going down. P&G is in a proxy fight (I will invest if they LOSE, Peltz is correct). The food companies are almost universally down. Sure the FANG look pretty good (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) but this market is so overhyped that Blue Apron and Snapchat got listed. No way they should be public and only a dolt would invest. Pets.com all over again.

OK, I'm coming off like Zerohedge or Peter Schiff. But it sure feels like casino day in the market right now. Buy the Dow, buy tech, buy Bitcoin. It's all going to the moon and can't be stopped.

I'm not financial advice. Just throwing some pasta against the wall.
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: Smurf Hunter on October 19, 2017, 03:42:57 PM
MongDB (NASDAQ:MDB) went IPO today.

Unreal they closed above $32 with an opening at $24.  I think they are a mediocre tech company, and they certainly don't have the best revenue model among their competitors.
Insiders say the IPO was a desperate play to get additional funding.  Think we should short this one...
Title: Re: DOW broke 17,000
Post by: osubuckeye4 on October 20, 2017, 07:43:22 AM
If it sounds like Klingon, just ignore it. If you think me some financial wizard, bear in mind I'm essentially a 1950s housewife. I literally have a cheesecake in the oven. I'll even double down by admitting I have never successfully called a top. I am much better at the math for finding a bottom.

The Dow, Nas, and S&P are all up amazingly this year. And from what we read confidence is at an all-time high.

All traders follow the VXX. The VXX is the ticker symbol to buy in to profit from volatility. In a nutshell it tracks the CBOE VIX futures. If that means nothing to you, you're not alone. In English that means the more volatile the market, the higher the VIX, the higher the VXX. Basically if you're in turbulent times buying the VXX is a defensive strategy.

In the past 5 years the VXX has gone from ~$800 to ~$34.

What does this mean? It means that the market is doing what a lot of experts tell you it does. Buy a broad fund and hold and watch it slowly chug up. Slow, sustained, boring growth. Essentially the market is doing what every 401 investor loves. Traders like me hate it. We prefer high volatility where short term buying and shorting yield quick explosive returns. We don't care if the market is up or down as long as it moves quick.

But there's another interpretation. We're watching the value set a record high while the risk is priced at a record low!!!! Said differently, that like the market is telling us that not only do we have record highs but we deserved them. That 23,000 is just a stepping stone as this trend will continue.

Wait? Low volatility? Toys R Us just filed bankruptcy. Sears is going down. P&G is in a proxy fight (I will invest if they LOSE, Peltz is correct). The food companies are almost universally down. Sure the FANG look pretty good (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) but this market is so overhyped that Blue Apron and Snapchat got listed. No way they should be public and only a dolt would invest. Pets.com all over again.

OK, I'm coming off like Zerohedge or Peter Schiff. But it sure feels like casino day in the market right now. Buy the Dow, buy tech, buy Bitcoin. It's all going to the moon and can't be stopped.

I'm not financial advice. Just throwing some pasta against the wall.

I believe the main reason volatility is so low, despite surging prices, is actually two reasons.

First, central bank interference (SNB in particular)... they're pumping billions of dollars into tech and blue chip stocks and are pretty much pot committed to needing the strategy to succeed in order to hedge against NIRP/ZIRP policies that are returning no or negative yield.

Second, it's no secret that most high volume/big money human brokers are long gone. They've been replaced by "buy the dip" algo's that are just following what the other algo's are doing and piggybacking like parasites off the backs of the reckless central banks.


As long as central banks keep interfering, there's no real incentive for the algo's to dump because they know the banks are pot committed and additional money is going to keep being pumped in.




It's funny, people in my circle look into what I'm saying and start to freak out when they realize what is going on. First, it's generally, "central banks can't invest in the stock market" and then they look into it and see what's happening and the response immediately turns too, "wow, it's totally rigged!!!Does this mean I just withdraw everything!?!?!"

No... definitely not.

The bottom might fall out tomorrow, or it might be a decade from now after all the rest of the central banks have taken turns dipping their toes in the DOW casino and there's no more left to pump.


My advice to anyone (and I'm not a licensed broker (but I did stay at a Holiday Express last night), so take it with a handful of salt)...

Ride the wave, but make sure you're smart about it. Set up stop-on-quotes so that if the algo's all decide to turn in the other direction at the crack of dawn one morning, you're not waking up to utter catastrophe. As long as you do that, and you keep a diversified portfolio that isn't 100% tied to the market, you should be way better off than most when the rug is pulled out. (and that's not a question of if, it's a matter of when)


Like I said earlier though... this could be the end and tomorrow could be the day it crashes, or, it could be the middle and we could have years of this as other central banks all start jumping headfirst into the pool. Don't get out now... but do have your parachute set to deploy when the party officially ends.