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Armory, Self Defense, And EDC => Firearms (Including Long Guns, Pistols) => Modern Rifles, Shotguns and Carbines => Topic started by: The Professor on May 13, 2017, 04:06:07 PM

Title: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on May 13, 2017, 04:06:07 PM
The next three years are going to be very interesting on more levels than we probably know.

Not only are we in for a Socio-Political ride unlike any we've seen before (and let's not forget the Damoclean economic sword hanging over our heads), but the world is going to change in many other ways, as well.

For example, many people don't realize that the US Army is actively seeking a completely new primary firearm for soldiers. . .and it WILL NOT BE the Stoner-designed AR-style military rifle!  A complete redesign is in the works (no indication, yet, if the XM8 project will be revived. . .and it won't matter for civvies if it is).  The biggest change is that the caliber will be changing. . .as well as the TYPE of ammunition.

The new caliber is what portends a significant change for civilian shooters.  There are MILLIONS of AR-style .223 Remington and 5.56x45mm rifles in the hands of Americans.  Each shoots a brass-cased cartridge with a 0.224" bullet. But, the new rifle the Army wants may well be a paradigm shift in ammunition with polymer cartridges being researched due to their light weight and production speed.  SOCOM is currently testing a Polymer 6.5 Creedmore round, as we speak with two other prospective calibers being .260 Remington and .265 USA.

Why does this affect the average Joe?  Simple, most military or civilian-related calibers are loaded by companies who have military contracts.  Those rounds are often filled with powder and primers made by subcontracted companies who have government contracts to provide the same to the military ammo makers.  It's economically cheaper to make a .223 Remington with a 55-gr round when all the components are military over-runs and when you can leave a few steps out (like crimping primers).  What happens when those big contracts go away?

As I mentioned in another recent post, right now is Golden Period.  Ammunition for (current) military calibers is abundant.  Prices are, in my opinion, at an artificially high cost because the average consumer doesn't know any better.  It's highly speculative, but I foresee a brief, but significant drop in ammunition prices for military rifle calibers in the next two years.

Were it me, I would plan on investing a significant amount in those calibers. 

The ammo companies see the writing on the wall.  They will have to invest in new equipment for the polymer ammunition.  While demand will still remain for the military calibers by civilian shooters, they will NEVER sell those calibers at Carl Sagan levels (". . .billions and billions. . .").

The argument could be made that foreign militaries will still need ammo and many countries (such as the UK, Israel, China and South Africa) will still be producing the calibers, but the prices will still be higher than they are today.

So. . .the Golden Question:  How much is enough?  Well, my general answer (and the formula I am using to determine our own purchase/storage levels) is to determine how much ammo  you used in the past five years and divide that by five to get an annual average.  Then, multiply that answer  times the number of years you foresee continuing shooting.

Then again, perhaps higher prices won't affect the average shooter, too much.  Most people I know, despite their professed extensive knowledge of shooting, equipment and techniques, barely put 100 rounds downrange in a given year. . .if any at all.  For them, I suggest just latching onto about a thousand rounds (or 840 in stripper clips, bandolier and ammo can) and tossing it in the back of the corner along with their NVD's, Body Armor and Noveske Rifle.

Just some thoughts, worth exactly what you paid for them.

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on May 13, 2017, 04:14:12 PM
An important piece of intel, would be to know the time frame between the .mil choosing a new rifle/cartridge and the same being physically replaced in the field for all applicable missions.  While your point is very valid, my guess is there's be some significant latency between the "decision" and the "deployment".  Maybe that's several months, or a few years.  And initially there should be a wave of surplus ammo/mags.  So in the near term that might be a boon for 5.56 civilian shooters.

As long as there are active duty infantry units fielding 5.56mm weapons, I don't think the supply economics will change too drastically.

If any insiders can give an estimate on the timing, I would appreciate it.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: CPT Morgan on May 13, 2017, 04:19:44 PM
That makes a lot of sense Professor, thank you for sharing your insight.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: TNVolunteer on May 13, 2017, 04:52:51 PM
Interesting thoughts.  I've started buying again now that the prices are "down" .... relative to where they have been the last 6 years.  I am running into a problem though.  Regrettably, my wife knows what an ammo can is and long ago, learned how to count.  You can figure out the rest.   ;D

Post
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on May 13, 2017, 08:51:17 PM
An important piece of intel, would be to know the time frame between the .mil choosing a new rifle/cartridge and the same being physically replaced in the field for all applicable missions.  While your point is very valid, my guess is there's be some significant latency between the "decision" and the "deployment".  Maybe that's several months, or a few years.  And initially there should be a wave of surplus ammo/mags.  So in the near term that might be a boon for 5.56 civilian shooters.

As long as there are active duty infantry units fielding 5.56mm weapons, I don't think the supply economics will change too drastically.

If any insiders can give an estimate on the timing, I would appreciate it.

In this particular case (IMO), the complete timing of the changeover isn't all that important.

It's like this:   The situation we're currently in originates back as far as 2012.  When Obama's second term started, everyone thought he'd go after guns.  At that time, ammunition manufacturers received a RIDICULOUS number of orders from existing FFL's in preparation for the purchasing onslaught that did happen. . .for a while.  They are just now getting caught up to those orders. . .BUT. . .a lot of the FFL's that ordered are no longer in business.  Remember, in 2012, it was almost impossible to find ammo and stayed that way for 3 years, in some cases.

Now, we're seeing a glut in the market.  This is for TWO reasons. . .the first is that all those orders are in and the second is that Hillary didn't get elected.  We'd be talking about a completely different problem, right now, if there was a second Clinton in office.  This is also the reason you see major AR producers, such as Colt, dropping their prices significantly.  They, too, prepared for the worst and are now swimming in stock with no "fear-driven" purchases in the marketplace.

The Golden Period to which I earlier referred is the time it's going to take for this surplus to be bought up.

Now, there are two other issues that will feed into this that only solidifies my Golden Period belief.

In about two years, the 2020 elections will be in full swing.  If you think Hillary was scary, imagine what's going to be on the Democrat's Candidate list for the next election?

We will, once again, be thrown back into Panic Mode as all the late-comers, who got comfortable with Trump in office, feel their rights are threatened, once again.

So, at THAT time, ammo demand will begin to go up and supply will begin to go down, leading to higher prices.  How many ammo manufacturers will fall by the wayside in the next two years due to lack of demand and high on-hand stock?  They have to survive the next two years somehow.  We're already seeing drops in prices to keep the cash flowing.

The industry is teetering, right now.   Major firearms, and firearms-related, companies will be closing their doors.  Olympic Arms has closed.  Remington closed a major plant in Mayfield, KY, ammo manufacturers are already dealing with major problem sourcing lead due to the previous administration closing the Herculaneum smelting plant.

With the additional threat of losing 5.56x45 military production, it just pushes the window closed a little more.

Please understand, I'm not saying you won't be able to purchase current military calibers ever again, I'm just saying NOW is the time to do it if you want to get them at the cheapest prices in the foreseeable future.

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: NWPilgrim on May 14, 2017, 01:44:17 AM
I have to agree with your assessment Professor.  We seem to keep underestimating the supply/demand and distribution system. Every panic seems to out do the one before and what we thought were plenty of stocked up ammo cans isn't nearly enough, again.  Another dynamic in the last ten years is the huge increase in the number of shooters and the huge increase of rounds fired per range session and per year. 

Just a personal anecdote, when I was a youngster my dad took us to the range about once a year to sight in the rifles for hunting season.  About 2-4 rounds per rifle and per person used up all of about 20 rounds for 3 of us, plus a few more rounds if we were lucky that season.  When I was in my late 30s I got into more shooting on my own and reloading and might shoot 50-100 rounds a few times a year.  Over the years that has increased in frequency and duration of range sessions so I may shoot up 200-400 rds easily per session and many sessions per year, plus a a couple of family shootfests where we go through several hundred rounds of centerfire easily in a long day.  I am no operator in training or anything close, just like to have fun with the family and my handholds and variety of firearms.  Multiply this typical increase of rounds shot per year by the millions of gun owners and the thousands of new ones every year with tactical rifles and pistols and you are increasing ammo consumption by the billions.

I use to stock up enough to weather a year long disruption to ammo availability or price increases.  Now I am able to keep shooting for at least 5 years if needed, and I would not think it silly to stock up for a ten year period.  The last go-round I even bought a couple of pellet rifles and you can stock up for them super cheap.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: FreeLancer on May 14, 2017, 02:22:10 AM
Maybe I missed it on your other thread, but what's your crystal ball say about 7.62x51?
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on May 14, 2017, 09:32:03 AM
Maybe I missed it on your other thread, but what's your crystal ball say about 7.62x51?

It's a relatively low round count, and you should be hand loading it for precision - LOL

Maybe if I didn't have a mortgage, car payment and kids to feed I could do mag dumps of .308 every weekend ;)

Seriously though, .223/5.56 is special because of the "mission" of that system.  Given the volume, a $.10 per round cost increase on .223 hurts more than a $1 per round increase on .300 win mag.  Obviously .308 is someplace in between, but I'm guessing you don't shoot hundreds per range session.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Alan Georges on May 14, 2017, 09:44:12 AM
Remember circa 2003 when the Australians, Portuguese, and South Africans were phasing out 7.62x51 in favor of 5.56?  You could pick it up by the case for $0.15-0.20 a round at gun shows.  I'm still shooting on stock I picked up then, but wishing I'd picked up twice as much.  One $1000-ish horse-trade, the other guy threw in two 200 round battle packs to sweeten the deal.  It wasn't a lot then (~$60), but it's pretty sweet by today's prices!  Even more glad I took him up on the deal.

Maybe the same thing is about to happen to 5.56.  Be ready.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: ncjeeper on May 14, 2017, 11:16:50 AM
Remember circa 2003 when the Australians, Portuguese, and South Africans were phasing out 7.62x51 in favor of 5.56?  You could pick it up by the case for $0.15-0.20 a round at gun shows.
Im glad I grabbed a bunch back then.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on May 14, 2017, 03:53:38 PM
Maybe I missed it on your other thread, but what's your crystal ball say about 7.62x51?

Currently, I'm on the fence about 7.62x51 NATO, right now.

To me, it's always been the ugly step-sister to 5.56x45.  Many factions in the military want to get rid of it, completely, on the Company Level.  Many feel the SAW, being chambered in the same caliber as the M16, and which needs no Assistant Gunner, adequately fills the needs of the squad and the GPMG needs to be relegated to either a Special Weapons Squad on the Battalion level. 

Others, like myself, see a distinct need for it, but with the recent changes to military-issued 5.56x45 ammo, that need is very myopic. . .saved for a time when we face a modern, organized military force.

The information for the previous recommendations does hint at the desire to limit units to one, primary round with increased lethality over the 5.56x45mm.  Support weapons would be chambered in the same caliber, but the weapons, themselves, would be built for heavier, increased fire and (possibly) longer ranges.  This would simplify logistics, especially in pioneer or far-forward units

However (and this is mere speculation, at this point), 7.62x51mm sales (and their respective civilian counterpart, the .308 Winchester) comprise a MUCH smaller portion of ammunition sales.  A guess would be that prices would increase, but not significantly so.  Your average shooting civilian buys fewer weapons in .308 Win and, I'd bet, the majority of those would be bolt action, rather than semi-auto.  As such, the average civilian would not put as many rounds downrange in a given year as would one who shoots 5.56x45.  Therefore, demand isn't so great.  It won't be difficult to fill orders for the 7.62x51mm as others.

So, I'd theorize that they will increase in price, but not significantly so.  There is no great surplus of 7.62x51mm, as we have with 5.56x45, and the demand will, most likely, remain constant, which is to say: comparatively low.  What you may see is (IF the military does away with 7.62x51mm as well as 5.56x45mm) there will be droughts of ammunition as the ammo companies determine appropriate frequencies of lot runs to meet existing demand.  So in the short-to-medium term, a slight increase in price and varying availability. 

If you shoot a lot, you may want to stock up, but I wouldn't get too stressed about it unless you're a HEAVY shooter.

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: 9mmMaster on May 14, 2017, 06:44:05 PM
What is awesome to me as a Soldier
A new Rifle for the military in 6.5 !!!!
Sweet !!! Where is that thread ? Anyone have a link to the 6.5 trials first I heard of it.
I first joined th Militarybin 2001 shot many versions of the AR 16 A2 A4 full Auto Burst
Might make some upset but never felt the AR was a Great War fighting rifle or the 5.56 optimal
I think both are well suited to Police work.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Carl on May 15, 2017, 05:59:33 AM
  I picture a .308 X 1.5 inch poly cased ,brass headed cartridge for 2400FPS in a small Styer bullpup.

But I have seen what the .308 X 1.5 can do in a 14 inch TC Contender.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on May 16, 2017, 09:27:08 AM
Something that recently was published:

http://soldiersystems.net/2017/05/15/ussocom-usmc-take-first-steps-toward-adopting-a-338nm-lightweight-medium-machine-gun/#comments (http://soldiersystems.net/2017/05/15/ussocom-usmc-take-first-steps-toward-adopting-a-338nm-lightweight-medium-machine-gun/#comments)

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Carl on May 16, 2017, 10:56:50 AM
  You talked me into a Davis Defender with Gen 3 night scope that will arrive at the BOL later this month.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on May 20, 2017, 07:05:11 PM
Wow.  DPMS rebates bringing the cost of bread and butter ar down to about $400.  And even 308s are being discounted.

http://www.dpmsinc.com/rebates (http://www.dpmsinc.com/rebates)

(https://www.dpmsinc.com/assets/images/dpms2017.png)
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Chemsoldier on May 21, 2017, 01:18:16 AM
Maybe I missed it on your other thread, but what's your crystal ball say about 7.62x51?
Considering that you use .308 for the same purpose I use .223 (go to rifle for serious business, because California), you may need to stack much deeper than most on .308.

To be honest, the laws and attitude in California being what they are you are probably making a good choice getting more oomph out of the rounds you are allowed to have in the gun and the profile of the M1A is a lot less intimidating to those not in the know.

I think the price point though has hobbled the battle rifle crowd.  Appleseed shoots in 2008-2009, whew!, heavy metal thunder on the line!  It was maybe 50-50 centerfire/rimfire at 25 yards and I was the odd man out on the line using an AR amongst the centerfire crowd.  The centerfires were mostly M1As and M1 Garands with a sprinkling of others.  Those days are gone.  The centerfires are now 20% of the line tops and almost exclusively .223.  You will only see the .308s dragged out for the full distance shoots.

Plenty of owners of the biguns, but not shot as much.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: FreeLancer on May 21, 2017, 03:16:56 AM
Strangely, after our latest assault weapon ban, California boy has finally climbed on the AR bandwagon, so I've been laying in the 5.56, too.  Honestly, the handy little Kel-tec SU16 I picked up also is probably the better choice for this state, as it seems like the least compromised CA-legal .223.  But I figure everyone probably should have at least one AR. 

But, yes, I'm still laying in .308 for the M1A's.  They're low-tech, expensive, and heavy as hell, but I kind of agree with nutnfancy's title, "Fear not, you have an M1A." (https://youtu.be/q4Y4Ky8P-lk)
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Chemsoldier on May 21, 2017, 05:17:38 AM
  They're low-tech, expensive, and heavy as hell, but I kind of agree with nutnfancy's title, "Fear not, you have an M1A." (https://youtu.be/q4Y4Ky8P-lk)
I notice you are quoting a Nut'n'fancy title.  You ever notice people don't quote things he says at the end of his videos?
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: FreeLancer on May 21, 2017, 10:22:37 AM
Because they're so long.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: ncjeeper on May 21, 2017, 01:11:02 PM
I am going to cross post this to another forum if that's ok?
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on May 21, 2017, 06:32:20 PM
I am going to cross post this to another forum if that's ok?

Meh, just credit where credit is due and, please, liberally sprinkle your description of me with terms such as "Devastatingly Handsome," "Roguish Attire," and "Mind Like a Steel Trap."

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Ms. Albatross on May 21, 2017, 07:28:49 PM
Meh, just credit where credit is due and, please, liberally sprinkle your description of me with terms such as "Devastatingly Handsome," "Roguish Attire," and "Mind Like a Steel Trap."

The Professor

 :rofl:
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Chemsoldier on May 21, 2017, 09:07:44 PM
Meh, just credit where credit is due and, please, liberally sprinkle your description of me with terms such as "Devastatingly Handsome," "Roguish Attire," and "Mind Like a Steel Trap."

The Professor

He is also humble. He even won an award for his humbleness. Alas it was revoked when he was seen wearing it.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on May 22, 2017, 05:53:44 PM
The rebate floodgates have opened.  It is a straight up rebate war across tactical rifles.

(https://www.impactguns.com/Data/Default/Images/uploads/rebates/bushmaster/Screen_Shot_2017-05-16_at_8.49.29_AM.png)

(https://www.remington.com/sites/default/files/styles/product_family_product_600/public/rebate/image/Remington%20Rebate%20Preview.jpg?itok=pCsrMM8m)

(https://gun.deals/sites/default/files/roiutiirirr.jpg)

(https://www.galleryofguns.com/ConsumerPromo/Images/PromoImages/2017%20Marlin%20Rifle%20Rebate.jpg)



Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Alan Georges on May 22, 2017, 07:06:10 PM
The rebate floodgates have opened.  It is a straight up rebate war across tactical rifles.
Yeah, it is time to buy.  And also, time to remember to encourage those on the fence (or maybe not quite so well plugged-in) that now is the time, and the screamin' deals are out there right now, but maybe not in six months.

Thanks for posting that, I4L.  I have a brother who needs some encouragement.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on May 22, 2017, 07:55:31 PM
Thanks for posting that, I4L.  I have a brother who needs some encouragement.

Ugh.  I just couldn't take it anymore. I dont have a flattop AR so I just ordered a Bushmaster QRC.  galleryofguns.com has them on inventory reduction here: http://galleryofguns.com/Gallery/HotDeals.aspx?evt=Inventory%20Reduction%20Sale&brand=Bushmaster (http://galleryofguns.com/Gallery/HotDeals.aspx?evt=Inventory%20Reduction%20Sale&brand=Bushmaster).  Including taxes, dealer fees, etc. it comes in at $454.95 after $75 rebate.  And that includes Davidson's lifetime warranty: http://www.galleryofguns.com/about/terms.aspx (http://www.galleryofguns.com/about/terms.aspx).  It will be a good loaner rifle.

https://www.bushmaster.com/firearms/xm-15-qrc/16-optics-ready (https://www.bushmaster.com/firearms/xm-15-qrc/16-optics-ready)
(https://www.bushmaster.com/sites/default/files/styles/bm_product_standard/public/91048_XM-15_QRC_OpticsReady-revised.jpg?itok=YkMk_luc)


Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Alan Georges on May 22, 2017, 09:04:57 PM
...   taxes, dealer fees, etc. it comes in at $454.95 after $75 rebate.  And that includes Davidson's lifetime warranty:
That is one screaming deal.  Have a friend with one of their ORCs – same thing but with a carbon fiber receiver.  Between that and the pencil barrel, it's l-i-g-h-t.  You're gonna love it, and toward the end of a long day on the range, you may stop considering it a loaner rifle.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Skispcs on May 23, 2017, 07:10:16 AM

 ammo manufacturers are already dealing with major problem sourcing lead due to the previous administration closing the Herculaneum smelting plant.


I find this interesting, do you have a source that states the ammo manufacturers are having a hard time procuring lead? I was under the impression that the smelting plant made "new lead" and that most ammo manufacturers used "recycled lead" and therefore it was not a major impact as there is a good supply of recycled lead.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on May 23, 2017, 09:39:40 AM
I find this interesting, do you have a source that states the ammo manufacturers are having a hard time procuring lead? I was under the impression that the smelting plant made "new lead" and that most ammo manufacturers used "recycled lead" and therefore it was not a major impact as there is a good supply of recycled lead.

I'm not sure I buy that either.  Most every gun range I work with recycles spent lead in some shape or form (at least eventually).  Our outdoor range sifts the dirt berms every 5 years or so, and sells the lead scrap to fund the juniors shooting team.  Likewise with any spent brass.

Lead wheel weights are harder to find, but I can still get smelted lead ingots shipped for $1.50/lbs.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Carl on May 23, 2017, 09:55:29 AM
  I think manufactures use NEW lead for consistency as it effects accuracy and expansion while re-loaders use cast bullets a manufacturer depends on consistency for how their bullets are poured,swagged,or ?? to insure bonding to jacket and expansion is also consistent.Though large volume operations can make for uniform metal recipes, a small caster tends to vary too much from batch to batch. I used materials from both types of operation though my favorite was BARNES bronze alloy for the SWAT guys as it was always consistent.

My two cents while operating PSK31 and communicating with a Ham radio operator in Memphis as I move screen to screen to add to this post.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on May 23, 2017, 02:33:14 PM
I find this interesting, do you have a source that states the ammo manufacturers are having a hard time procuring lead? I was under the impression that the smelting plant made "new lead" and that most ammo manufacturers used "recycled lead" and therefore it was not a major impact as there is a good supply of recycled lead.

Other than an exerpt from a discussion with an Olin rep while partaking in an Intergalactic Kegger and enjoying a Body Shot from a disturbingly-dressed redheaded cowgirl (Leather Chaps, boots, halter, Cowboy Hat and G-string. . .disturbing in that she had no gunbelt. . .a blatant disregard for the atmosphere, all things considered).

I'm pretty sure that's what he said as he delved entirely too deeply into the whole engineering side of things.  Granted, I was a bit distracted at the time. . .the redhead had a friend.

I learned two things about myself that night. . .the first is that high-volume bullet-making is much more difficult than I thought, and the second that I can hold a rather copius amount of tequila in my belly button.

But that's another story, entirely.

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on May 23, 2017, 02:36:43 PM
Other than an exerpt from a discussion with an Olin rep while partaking in an Intergalactic Kegger and enjoying a Body Shot from a disturbingly-dressed redheaded cowgirl (Leather Chaps, boots, halter, Cowboy Hat and G-string. . .disturbing in that she had no gunbelt. . .a blatant disregard for the atmosphere, all things considered).

I'm pretty sure that's what he said as he delved entirely too deeply into the whole engineering side of things.  Granted, I was a bit distracted at the time. . .the redhead had a friend.

I learned two things about myself that night. . .the first is that high-volume bullet-making is much more difficult than I thought, and the second that I can hold a rather copius amount of tequila in my belly button.

But that's another story, entirely.

The Professor

Only the professor is able to digress to that from a conversation about metal composition.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on May 23, 2017, 03:14:30 PM
Only the professor is able to digress to that from a conversation about metal composition.

Sorry, I forgot to say that was this last SHOT Show (2017).  Even the memory of that discussion is a tad bid distracting.

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on May 23, 2017, 03:20:42 PM
Sorry, I forgot to say that was this last SHOT Show (2017).  Even the memory of that discussion is a tad bid distracting.

The Professor

Yeah, I see what you did there.   :beer:
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on May 23, 2017, 03:20:56 PM
  I think manufactures use NEW lead for consistency as it effects accuracy and expansion while re-loaders use cast bullets a manufacturer depends on consistency for how their bullets are poured,swagged,or ?? to insure bonding to jacket and expansion is also consistent.

When i researched this when it first came up, most of the major US bullet manufacturers used lead from recycled auto batteries.  There were both economic and process reasons for doing this. That is, it was easier to use the recycled material than the new material from ore.   In fact, one of the bullet manufacturers had their plant just a few miles from the ore smelter that was closing but it didnt impact them at all because they exclusively used the recycled auto battery material provided by the same company.  I will see if I can find those those articles.  This said, the market has to be somewhat fungible and lead prices have been on an upswing lately.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on May 23, 2017, 04:03:10 PM
When i researched this when it first came up, most of the major US bullet manufacturers used lead from recycled auto batteries.  There were both economic and process reasons for doing this. That is, it was easier to use the recycled material than the new material from ore.   In fact, one of the bullet manufacturers had their plant just a few miles from the ore smelter that was closing but it didnt impact them at all because they exclusively used the recycled auto battery material provided by the same company.  I will see if I can find those those articles.  This said, the market has to be somewhat fungible and lead prices have been on an upswing lately.

Well, ultimately, even if they were rolling in appropriate material, it won't affect the window as will the military, political and economical factors will.  Warehouses are full, coffers aren't, buyer's aren't feeling the need to buy out of panic, right now and EVERYONE is trying to tread water.

This window won't last.  Colt has laid off a ton of workers, Olympic has closed it's doors, Remington closed it's Kentucky plant where they were making the Marlin guns.  Gander Mountain is filing bankruptcy and closing it's doors, allegedly because of the rapid decline of gun sales.

Massive Supply and No Demand equals GREAT OPPORTUNITY.

But, again, it won't last.  Things will flatten out, prices will plateau and start climbing back up here when the next major election cycle starts turning.

It's simply a window of opportunity if someone wishes to take advantage of it.

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on May 23, 2017, 05:25:11 PM
Massive Supply and No Demand equals GREAT OPPORTUNITY.

But, again, it won't last.  Things will flatten out, prices will plateau and start climbing back up here when the next major election cycle starts turning.

It's simply a window of opportunity if someone wishes to take advantage of it.

Yep, 100% agree.  It is hard to not see the opportunity when base ARs from major gun brands are selling for $410 (pre tax). 

Did look up the situation with lead for bullet manufacturers.  The smelter which closed was a primary one which turned ore into pure lead. Such a plant cant produce "small" runs of alloys cost effectively.  They have to concentrate on pure lead manufacture to make the economies of scale work. Bullet manufacturers primarily use cores of alloys (e.g. 90% lead 6% antimony, 4% tin). So it is cheaper to get the alloy from the recycling plants which can effectively do small batches exactly as needed.  Plus this allows bullet manufacturers to diversify suppliers thereby reducing risk to operations.  Since 99% of all lead is recycled (it is the easiest of all metals to recycle because of its density), the risk of not having US plant is minimal.  The 1% is easily imported in manufactured goods from Mexico and China each year.  Here is a statement from Sierra which summarizes this: https://sierrabulletsblog.com/2013/11/01/sierra-responds-how-will-the-closure-of-the-lead-smelting-plant-affect-sierra-bullets/ (https://sierrabulletsblog.com/2013/11/01/sierra-responds-how-will-the-closure-of-the-lead-smelting-plant-affect-sierra-bullets/)

I was wrong about the sbove being a rebate war.  A buddy who owns a gun shop pointed out that most of those brands were from the same parent company.  He said he expects S&W, Ruger, and several others to respond this weekend.  He thinks we can see popular semi-auto handguns dropping from $500-$600 to $400.  He is trying to clear all second tier manufacturer handguns from inventory at cost to take advantage of the dealer incentives from the big guys.

Between that and the pencil barrel, it's l-i-g-h-t.

That is spot on.  I chose the QRC because of its lightness.  it is like 5.2 lbs so with a small konus red dot and 20 round mags it should be just over six pounds.  This is just about perfect for soneone of shorter status like my wife, especially with the smaller mag and folding stock.  Personally, I prefer my 20 inch hbar fixed stock despite its 8lb girth.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: ncjeeper on May 23, 2017, 08:13:24 PM
  Gander Mountain is filing bankruptcy and closing it's doors, allegedly because of the rapid decline of gun sales.
Nobody bought guns from Gander because they were way over priced.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: FreeLancer on May 24, 2017, 05:44:52 PM
I ordered some Singapore Military 5.56 from Bulk Ammo last night, apparently manufactured by Magtech in Brazil. The blurb said they are ultra particular about their ammo specs, requiring sealed primer pocket and case mouth, sealed 200rd poly bags with desiccant, and a steel ammo can sealing 1000rds. The cans are stored for 7 years in an air conditioned building and then replaced with a new production run. That seems like some serious overkill to me, but this is a country that makes you scrap a car when it's 10 years old, so maybe it's just the way they roll over there.

Edited to add the best part:  30 cents per round.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: chrisdfw on May 24, 2017, 05:56:25 PM
Ugh.  I just couldn't take it anymore. I dont have a flattop AR so I just ordered a Bushmaster QRC.  galleryofguns.com has them on inventory reduction here: http://galleryofguns.com/Gallery/HotDeals.aspx?evt=Inventory%20Reduction%20Sale&brand=Bushmaster (http://galleryofguns.com/Gallery/HotDeals.aspx?evt=Inventory%20Reduction%20Sale&brand=Bushmaster).  Including taxes, dealer fees, etc. it comes in at $454.95 after $75 rebate.  And that includes Davidson's lifetime warranty: http://www.galleryofguns.com/about/terms.aspx (http://www.galleryofguns.com/about/terms.aspx).  It will be a good loaner rifle.

https://www.bushmaster.com/firearms/xm-15-qrc/16-optics-ready (https://www.bushmaster.com/firearms/xm-15-qrc/16-optics-ready)
(https://www.bushmaster.com/sites/default/files/styles/bm_product_standard/public/91048_XM-15_QRC_OpticsReady-revised.jpg?itok=YkMk_luc)

I just ordered one too. Because, America!

these deals get down to where its almost the same price as building it myself... without all the work. I hardly will build a basic aR15, not worth the effort, saving the effort for special builds where I want it just a certain way at these prices.

Might order another on payday... and after that too
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Alan Georges on May 24, 2017, 06:53:50 PM
Ah, $399?  I don't exactly need another AR, but this is getting stupid cheap.
https://www.cdnnsports.com/dpms-oracle-ar15-5-56-custom-package.html (https://www.cdnnsports.com/dpms-oracle-ar15-5-56-custom-package.html)

Also, a 59% off deal on buckshot over at Midway:
https://www.midwayusa.com/product/364230/sellier-and-bellot-ammunition-12-gauge-2-3-4-00-buckshot-9-pellets?cm_mmc=pe_brand-_-sellierbellot_buckshot-_-ods_send2-_-20170524 (https://www.midwayusa.com/product/364230/sellier-and-bellot-ammunition-12-gauge-2-3-4-00-buckshot-9-pellets?cm_mmc=pe_brand-_-sellierbellot_buckshot-_-ods_send2-_-20170524)
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: chad on May 24, 2017, 07:26:49 PM
Fire sale....on guns and ammo..boys and girls... smoke'em if you got'em...
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on May 24, 2017, 07:49:03 PM
Also, a 59% off deal on buckshot over at Midway:
https://www.midwayusa.com/product/364230/sellier-and-bellot-ammunition-12-gauge-2-3-4-00-buckshot-9-pellets?cm_mmc=pe_brand-_-sellierbellot_buckshot-_-ods_send2-_-20170524 (https://www.midwayusa.com/product/364230/sellier-and-bellot-ammunition-12-gauge-2-3-4-00-buckshot-9-pellets?cm_mmc=pe_brand-_-sellierbellot_buckshot-_-ods_send2-_-20170524)

Apparently from the box image 00 buck is just perfect for both rabbits and house cats!

(https://media.midwayusa.com/productimages/880x660/Primary/364/364230.jpg)
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: chad on May 24, 2017, 08:01:22 PM
Apparently from the box image 00 buck is just perfect for both rabbits and house cats!

(https://media.midwayusa.com/productimages/880x660/Primary/364/364230.jpg)


Holy s$ht, the progressives have taken over bullet manufacturing.. Ferrell cats maybe, cotton tail not so much.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Alan Georges on May 24, 2017, 08:08:27 PM
Apparently from the box image 00 buck is just perfect for both rabbits and house cats!
Look again at the proportions of the animals in the illustrations.  Wererabbits!  Werecats!   :tinfoily:  They could already be your neighbors!
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Carl on May 25, 2017, 07:03:10 AM
http://www.factcheck.org/2013/12/no-back-door-gun-control/
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on May 25, 2017, 11:05:02 AM
This NRA article is pretty on point.  Might be worth sending to anyone on the fence to encourage them.

https://www.americanrifleman.org/articles/2017/5/9/6-guns-to-look-for-in-a-buyers-market/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=insider&utm_campaign=0517 (https://www.americanrifleman.org/articles/2017/5/9/6-guns-to-look-for-in-a-buyers-market/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=insider&utm_campaign=0517)
6 Guns To Look For In a Buyer's Market

New shooting enthusiasts and first-time gun owners often have their interest in firearms sparked by one particular facet of the shooting sports. But once the gun bug bites, it's only natural to feel a desire to explore more shooting endeavors. Thanks to a current favorable climate when it comes to our 2nd Amendment rights, we have at long last returned to a buyer's marketplace. Dealers’ shelves are well-stocked with a variety of options at reasonable prices. This means now is a great time to try something new.

Each of the following guns will provide new shooters with important operational experience. Someone who understands how to run at least one gun in each of these categories will have a basic understanding of how to use just about every make and model that can be purchased at local outdoor retailers.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: NWPilgrim on May 25, 2017, 05:11:01 PM
It is easy to get lulled into thinking these prices will be around for a long time and no hurry to replenish or build up supplies.  But the Professor is right that these are just the beginning of good deals but they won't last.  Probably for sure 3 months at least, maybe 6 months, but beyond that it could get iffy as surpluses get bought up and manufacturer cutbacks on production/staffing start rebalancing the supply.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on May 25, 2017, 07:06:20 PM
Ah, $399?  I don't exactly need another AR, but this is getting stupid cheap.
https://www.cdnnsports.com/dpms-oracle-ar15-5-56-custom-package.html (https://www.cdnnsports.com/dpms-oracle-ar15-5-56-custom-package.html)

Bud's just undercut.  Now $374.00:

https://www.budsgunshop.com/catalog/product_info.php/cPath/2084_36_793/products_id/70770/Firearms/Rifles/DPMS+Panther+Arms/DPMS+RFA3-OC+Oracle+30%2B1+223REM5.56NATO+16%22 (https://www.budsgunshop.com/catalog/product_info.php/cPath/2084_36_793/products_id/70770/Firearms/Rifles/DPMS+Panther+Arms/DPMS+RFA3-OC+Oracle+30%2B1+223REM5.56NATO+16%22)
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on June 01, 2017, 09:41:18 PM
Here come some handgun discounts and rebates.  For example S&W Shields down to $215 with rebate and Walther PPS down to $310 with rebate.

(http://palmettostatearmory.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/370x370/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/d/a/daily-deal-31353_3.jpg)

(https://www.ammoland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Walther-Arms-2017-Mail-In-Rebate-450x600.jpg?e82f90)

Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on July 23, 2017, 05:26:31 PM
FYI, my Bushmaster rebate came in last week.  That was pretty fast.

Also just a reminder that several of the rebates are ending July 31.  So if you are considering a $400 AR or other heavy discounted items, you might want to make a decision soon.

https://www.rkguns.com/dpms-panther-oracle-223-5-56-ar-15-rifle.html (https://www.rkguns.com/dpms-panther-oracle-223-5-56-ar-15-rifle.html)

LAST CHANCE TO GET A QUALITY AR-15 UNDER $400!
ORDERS MUST BE PLACED BY 7/31 TO QUALIFY!

(http://newsletter.ruralking.com/rkguns/email/2017/2017-07-23/img/oracle.jpg)
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on October 06, 2017, 10:33:09 PM
FYI.  Delton has deal at Rural King for the Delton Echo 316H Lite optics ready - $389.00.  This is the version without the forward assist and dust cover.

https://www.rkguns.com/del-ton-echo-316h-5-56mm-nato-semi-automatic-ar-15-rifle-orfth16-lt.html (https://www.rkguns.com/del-ton-echo-316h-5-56mm-nato-semi-automatic-ar-15-rifle-orfth16-lt.html)

(https://cdn-us-cf2.yottaa.net/58b82148312e584a97000001/www.rkguns.com/v~13.1e/media/catalog/product/cache/1/thumbnail/97x/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/i/m/image004_002_.jpg?yocs=1_&yoloc=us)
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on October 09, 2017, 08:15:46 AM
Is $389 too much for your buget?  How about $352?!  That is how much today's gallery of guns deal is to my local gun store for a polymer ATI Omni Hybrid Maxx P3 M4 Flat Top Carbine. Very lite at about 5 1/2 lbs.  Clearly this wont last long at this price.

http://www.galleryofguns.com/genie/default.aspx?item=atigomx556p3&utm_source=icontact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=500&utm_campaign=product_spotlight (http://www.galleryofguns.com/genie/default.aspx?item=atigomx556p3&utm_source=icontact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=500&utm_campaign=product_spotlight)

(http://images.davidsonsinc.com/sales/emailimages/gogproductspotlight_1009.jpg)

UPC:    819644020189
Description:    ATA OMNI MAXX HYB P3 5.56 16B
Brand:    American Tactical Imports
Model:    Omni Hybrid Maxx P3 M4 Flat Top Carbine
Type:    Rifle: Semi-Auto
Caliber:    5.56 NATO|223
Finish:    Black
Action:    Semi-Automatic
Stock:    6 Position Stock with Pistol Grip
Sight:    No Sights
Barrel Length:    16 M4 Nitride Coated Barrel, 1-7 Twist
 Overall Length:    31.25 to 34.875
Weight:    5.65 lbs
Capacity:    30+1
# of Mags:    1
Safety:    Manual Safety
Receiver:    Steel Reinforced Polymer Upper And Lower
Features:    Beveled Mag Well,;
Surefire Institute NANO Composite Parts Kit


Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on October 09, 2017, 08:31:49 AM
There are two higher level motivations for buying another AR and/or accessories right now:

1) fear of future restrictions could dry up supply and increase costs
2) stuff is so cheap, you should "buy low"

Not having a crystal ball, I can only offer speculation for #1.

For #2, I still think VALUE matters.  I've bee on limited budgets fairly often, but one redeeming thing about AR-15s is the modularity. 
If you only have $200-300 today, but a lower.  Either completed or stripped with a kit. 

You can get a stripped lower for $50-100 all day long right now.
$50 or so gets you a basic lower parts kit.
Stocks/buffers/tubes can be found for $75, but $100-150 gets you something nice.

BCM makes a fantastic LPK with a really decent trigger for about $100-120
https://www.rainierarms.com/manufacturers/bravo-company-mfg/bcm-enhanced-lower-parts-kit-ar15/?nosto=nosto-page-category2 (https://www.rainierarms.com/manufacturers/bravo-company-mfg/bcm-enhanced-lower-parts-kit-ar15/?nosto=nosto-page-category2)
Seems expensive compared to the $60 LPK, but consider what an aftermarket trigger costs, and this is a bargain.

While these < $400 complete rifles are an impressive value, you might consider spreading your budget over time and building a rifle with better components.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on October 09, 2017, 03:16:46 PM
I'm thinking of going a different route.

As a general rule, the Spousal Unit and I have five AR's apiece.  There are reasons for this, which I'll try to explain.

Rifle #1:  A  highly modified and custom-built Frankenrifle designed with the end of the world in mind.  Ultimately, it will shoot from 50-grain to 100-grain bullets, needs no external lubrication, is sub-MOA accurate, and has a barrel designed to last hundreds of thousands, not merely tens of thousands, of rounds.  I've posted details elsewhere here on TSPF, in the past.  A search for my moniker and "Frankenrifle" should pull it up.

The spouse has one similar, but externally finished a bit differently with different furniture, but the same internals, upper/lower and barrel.  I did have her barrel turned down to save weight.

Rifles #3&4: Identical matches to each other.  They're standard Noveske Generation 3 Switchblock Rifles in 5.56x45.  We both have two of them because we always take a spare to 3-gun matches or when we go to a shooting class.  It's just something we learned.

Rifles #5&6: Identical matches to each other.  These are AAC MPW's in .300 Blackout.  Pairing is for the same reason as for numbers 3 and 4, above.  We are considering making the .300 Blackout caliber our primary defensive longarm, so we're shooting these primarily in Run & Gun and in classes.    Eventually, they will be suppressed and SBR'd to reduce size, for carrying, and signature, for use, if we decide to go this final route.

Beyond that, we would be purchasing any other AR's in a simple, basic format as inexpensively as possible.  These would be put back, after being shrinkwrapped in their original boxes, specifically for investment purposes.

I do foresee another panic situation happening in the next few years.  Whoever's going to run against Trump during the  next election is going to be solidly anti-gun.  They won't have to lean towards the mainstream.  Their mindset is going to be proposing the "Anyone But Trump" agenda, just as the Right ran an "Anyone But Hillary" campaign.

It doesn't matter who wins, as long as people feel their future purchases will be threatened.  We've seen it in the past.

The real difference, this time, is that there's been a SIGNIFICANT gap between Trump being elected and a subsequent relaxing in the concern of any firearms ban.  There is a surplus of AR's on the market and those will dry up quickly.

Since so many gun manufacturers have gone out of business, we no longer have the manufacturing base we had following Obama's re-election.  Most of them simply couldn't survive the slump in sales.  So, there's going to be a gap between when inventory sells out and new product is made at a rate that will meet, or exceed, demand.

That's where my investment rifles come in.  I saw off-name AR's selling During the latter part of 2012 (obama's re-election) for upwards of $2k.

Honestly?  Even if I double my investment, I'll be happy.

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on October 09, 2017, 03:41:57 PM
While I understand the investment aspect, I think you'd do just as well to buy stock in a gun company.
Unfortunately aside from Ruger and S&W, there aren't many publicly traded small arms manufacturers.

Though consider Ruger (RGR).  If you'd bought stock immediately after the Dec. 2012 Newton, Conn. sandy hook school shooting @ ~$45/share and held for just over a year, you could sell for over $80/share.
Sure, there are some logistics and tax considerations, such as storing investment guns, or paying capital gains taxes on sold stock.

(https://imgur.com/SRsnV2Q.jpg)

I'd rather own $10,000 worth of stock equity that I can click a mouse in a web browser and sell than have as much in physical hardware. 

I bought a bunch of RGR just before the presidential election, assuming a Clinton victory.  That was a goof on my part, but recent events have recovered 90% of the losses since.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on October 09, 2017, 06:44:32 PM
While I understand the investment aspect, I think you'd do just as well to buy stock in a gun company.
Unfortunately aside from Ruger and S&W, there aren't many publicly traded small arms manufacturers.

Though consider Ruger (RGR).  If you'd bought stock immediately after the Dec. 2012 Newton, Conn. sandy hook school shooting @ ~$45/share and held for just over a year, you could sell for over $80/share.
Sure, there are some logistics and tax considerations, such as storing investment guns, or paying capital gains taxes on sold stock.

(https://imgur.com/SRsnV2Q.jpg)

I'd rather own $10,000 worth of stock equity that I can click a mouse in a web browser and sell than have as much in physical hardware. 

I bought a bunch of RGR just before the presidential election, assuming a Clinton victory.  That was a goof on my part, but recent events have recovered 90% of the losses since.

We have regular investments, as well.  But this physical investment is something I consider entirely different, here's why:

1.   In 1994, just a few months before the 1994 Omnibus Crime Act (AKA, the 94 Assault Weapon Ban) my wife and I (yes, the same wife) invested approximately $6,000 dollars by buying 10, Colt AR15's at (iirc) $575 apiece.  Less than six months later, we walked out of the first gunshow after he signed the bill with $30,000 in cash, in our hands.  Our only cost was $40 for a table and we were gone within the first three hours of the show opening up.

2.  In 2007, those AR15's retailed for a little more than 800 dollars.  The AWB had sunset and prices were balancing out.  Less than 1 year later, Obama gets elected and the prices of AR's went up to as high as $3795 at the Denver Tanner Gun Show for a Standard 6920.  For two years afterwards, you could not find a lower or a parts kit that ran within spitting distance of their 2007 prices.

3.  In 2012, when Obama got re-elected, I sat and watched a  grown man cry, thinking his gun business would be closing.  No one seriously believed that he'd get re-elected and there was a heavy push for gun Control, especially a month later when the Sandy Hook shooting happened.  This time, however, many manufacturers were ready and had cash to burn.  Price went up for a couple of months until the smaller shops started turning out lowers in sufficient quantities.  Likewise, lower parts kits disappeared, but showed back up.  The price for an AR rifle, complete, only doubled for a few months.  In some cases, early on, they tripled, depending on the ass***ishness of the dealer.

4.  A firearm is a hard asset.  I can practically guarantee you that, if you have any sense, you will not sell it for less than you have in it.  But it does take some knowledge and consideration.  For example.  Choose a common firearm, one that people see or like such as the AR-series rifle, the basic AK and a Glock 19 or 17 (Until recently, I would have added in a G22 and G23).  All are immediately recognizable and are chambered in calibers that are easy to find.  Additionally, magazines are plentiful and not too expensive (try finding an original Bren Ten magazine at a local gun show). If you buy any of these firearms for investment, YOU WILL NOT LOSE MONEY if you buy them on sale.  For example: Right now there are G19 Generation 3's, nib for approximately $425 online with free s/h.  Find a cheap and friendly FFL and reduce the cost of your transfer fee.  But let's say it's $450.  Right now, you should be able to sell that pistol (and not to a dealer) for $450, legally. 

5.  Since this is a Survival Board concerned with Survival topics, when Kim Broke Dong launches his EMP over the U. S. of A. and the power goes out or when the Chinese decide to invade to capture War Brides, you have an item that will be in demand AND you can trade/barter/sale, unlike stock in a gun company.  There's no one to call, no one to give a sell order to, no internet is needed for your day-trading activities, no need to transfer money from your E*Trade account, no forms to fill out, nothing.  It is an immediately accessible item with value.

6.  If any of the aforementioned survival scenarioes play out, they have the added benefit of being able to be USED by you, your family and your friends to defend yourself.  Yes, since I was an Army SEAL, I know four ways to kill a person with a rolled-up stock certificate (six, if it's a Preferred Stock with the little gold label), but I'd rather use something that requires less effort.

I could go on, but it's a simple as this:  I diversify.  The only real problem with AR's and AK's as investments is the sheer size of them and storage.  Try storing even a dozen G19's in your safe where they're protected against fire, etc.  What we did was to buy the least expensive fire-resistant safes and store those items in it.  Our Big-A**ed Fort Knox is for my good stuff.

Someone will inevitably ask the question about Gold and Silver.  After all, one gold round is worth approximately $1300, right now, and one ounce of silver about $17.  The problem is, in my opinion, that the average person is unaccustomed to accepting either medium as a form of payment.  Older people may, especially those who remember precious metal-backed money.  But Amber and Hunter Crossover?  Nope.  Plus, $1300 is a hard nut to crack (yes, buy 1/10 oz pieces).

We do invest in Gold and Silver. . .much more in silver than gold.  twice in my lifetime we've seen silver almost quadruple in price.  The last time, I had four, 100-oz bars that I let go at $44/oz.  I was a happy person.  But, I had to go to a coin shop to do it.  That's not something I can necessarily guarantee in a time of crisis.  But, I do have them as investment media. . .mainly to pass down to the kids.

These are the major reasons why I suggested investing in firearms and getting them now, while prices are ridiculously low.  I don't see this opportunity coming again anytime in the foreseeable future. 

Just as with all of my suggestions, they are worth exactly what you paid for them.

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on October 10, 2017, 07:41:40 AM
Point taken.  One of the first new guns I puchased was a ruger gp100 revolver in .357.  I paid just over $400 a decade ago.  Today the identical model is $650.  With a little leg work I expect I could recoup my purchase price on the used market.  That's a gun I shoot on occassion, so it's a decent asset.  I'd have to be desperate to sell it, but nice to know I could profit a bit.

That brings up my next question - I assume you never shoot the investment guns?  With a few special exceptions, I don't own guns I don't shoot.  In fact I don't own many firearms in the context of other TSPers but I have multiple magazines, ammo, reloading components and consumable parts like gas rings, firing pins, etc

I have a dozen unopened pmags I paid $9.99 for.  I suppose if I could honestly fetch $50 or more I'd sell them, but primarily I just want them for the future.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on October 10, 2017, 09:36:30 PM
Point taken.  One of the first new guns I puchased was a ruger gp100 revolver in .357.  I paid just over $400 a decade ago.  Today the identical model is $650.  With a little leg work I expect I could recoup my purchase price on the used market.  That's a gun I shoot on occassion, so it's a decent asset.  I'd have to be desperate to sell it, but nice to know I could profit a bit.

That brings up my next question - I assume you never shoot the investment guns?  With a few special exceptions, I don't own guns I don't shoot.  In fact I don't own many firearms in the context of other TSPers but I have multiple magazines, ammo, reloading components and consumable parts like gas rings, firing pins, etc

I have a dozen unopened pmags I paid $9.99 for.  I suppose if I could honestly fetch $50 or more I'd sell them, but primarily I just want them for the future.

Generally, no.  I will if I pick up one that's used, just to make sure it runs.  Otherwise, I tend to buy new firearms from a reputable manufacturer, especially on sale.  As I said earlier in the thread, I then usually wrap the original box in shrinkwrap and store the guns that way.

Magazines are another area and remember 1994. . .30rd AR mags WERE going for as much as $40-$50 for a while, since manufacture of new "high-capacity" ones were illegal.

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on October 22, 2017, 10:18:21 AM
FYI.  Delton has deal at Rural King for the Delton Echo 316H Lite optics ready - $389.00.  This is the version without the forward assist and dust cover.

https://www.rkguns.com/del-ton-echo-316h-5-56mm-nato-semi-automatic-ar-15-rifle-orfth16-lt.html (https://www.rkguns.com/del-ton-echo-316h-5-56mm-nato-semi-automatic-ar-15-rifle-orfth16-lt.html)

[img]https://cdn-us-cf2.yottaa.net/58b82148312e584a97000001/www.rkguns.com/v~13.1e/media/catalog/product/cache/1/thumbnail/97x/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/i/m/image004_002_.jpg?yocs=1_&yoloc=us[/imgg

Price drop.  Now $369.99:

https://www.rkguns.com/del-ton-echo-316h-5-56mm-nato-semi-automatic-ar-15-rifle-orfth16-lt.html (https://www.rkguns.com/del-ton-echo-316h-5-56mm-nato-semi-automatic-ar-15-rifle-orfth16-lt.html)

Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: David in MN on October 22, 2017, 02:03:32 PM
I don't "invest" in guns. They're bulky and the safe is pretty full anyway. But I've never lost money on a gun.

I do know one guy who buys surplus by the case. Stuffs them in the basement cosmolene and all. I *think* he's got about 20 cases (6 rifles per case I think) of Mosin Nagants he bought when they were ~$70 per rifle. Oddly, he doesn't really shoot and isn't into guns. He works at a hedge fund and saw the surplus pattern of a flooded market that eventually dries up. And yes, he's praying in Hebrew the government ditches the AR and somehow floods the market. But he's a nutso mathematician (says I  :o) who really gets deep into opportunities. Surplus rifles always go up in price.

Military rifles are a strange phenomenon. There have literally been hundreds of them in the modern era. And I still prefer a pump shotgun for home defense. I mean, who really has a Lee-Enfield behind the headboard? Or a BAR? Will the AR/AK suffer the same fate? Other than the few that get repurposed for hunting/sporting (thinking of Mausers specifically) they are pretty much regarded as passe tech. ANd unless they're beloved like the Garand and will become the prize of a collection, they just become range toys. What gets me is the price rise. What kind of fool buys a $200 Mosin?
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on October 22, 2017, 02:33:53 PM
Passe? Right, you people are nuts. Now get off my lawn.  :)

(https://i.pinimg.com/736x/82/b1/c4/82b1c4da4e2bde590cf47ad520c8bbe7.jpg)
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: David in MN on October 22, 2017, 03:18:36 PM
Passe? Right, you people are nuts. Now get off my lawn.  :)

(https://i.pinimg.com/736x/82/b1/c4/82b1c4da4e2bde590cf47ad520c8bbe7.jpg)

God, one of my favorite movies. A virtual clone of my grandfather. Except grandpa was in the Pacific for WWII, not Korea. Other than that, dead nuts. Even named Walt.

On the serious side, my dad (who used an M16A2 in Vietnam) looks at my M4gery as a foreign object. The A2 is already a relic.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Carl on October 22, 2017, 04:35:57 PM
  Few recognize my BAR's as fine weapons when the see my 'relics' in the rack (I have 3) and the Garrands purchased for $89 each many years ago and reach for the Thompsons as the recognise them....
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Ms. Albatross on October 22, 2017, 05:01:24 PM
God, one of my favorite movies.

Me too!  My husband will stop and watch it every time it comes up on cable TV.  He's Asian and he laughs the hardest at the all the Asian slurs.  It also has a place in my heart because I learned how to drive in a Torino.  Believe it or not it was Mom's car.  It was red and it looked kinda like this one:
(http://www.history-of-cars.com/images/ford-usa/1974-gran-torino-4door-sedan-16.jpg)
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: David in MN on October 22, 2017, 05:19:25 PM
Me too!  My husband will stop and watch it every time it comes up on cable TV.  He's Asian and he laughs the hardest at the all the Asian slurs.  It also has a place in my heart because I learned how to drive in a Torino.  Believe it or not it was Mom's car.  It was red and it looked kinda like this one:

Ooh. We saw it in the theater and on the way out my wife told me she never knew there were so many Asian slurs. Well, grandpa fought in the Pacific and dad served in Vietnam so I told her all the ones they missed! I really like that racism over the top becomes humor. In a sense we're laughing at that personality that would hold such ideas. It'd be interesting to know if my great-grandfather who fought in WWI would call me a dirty Hun for speaking German. It's a funny characiture. I wish we all could laugh a little more.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: DrJohn on October 23, 2017, 07:05:11 AM
Great movie!  My dad had a green Grand Torino Wagon - I hated that thing, because the front seat headrests were integrated to the seats themselves and sitting in the back, you couldn't see out the front at all.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Chemsoldier on October 23, 2017, 12:12:46 PM
God, one of my favorite movies. A virtual clone of my grandfather. Except grandpa was in the Pacific for WWII, not Korea. Other than that, dead nuts. Even named Walt.

On the serious side, my dad (who used an M16A2 in Vietnam) looks at my M4gery as a foreign object. The A2 is already a relic.

I believe you mean the M16A1, which was adopted around 1967 (largely eliminating the teething problems of the early M16 variants).  The M16A2 with a heavier barrel, longer buttstock and different sites was adopted in 1982.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: David in MN on October 23, 2017, 01:17:34 PM
I believe you mean the M16A1, which was adopted around 1967 (largely eliminating the teething problems of the early M16 variants).  The M16A2 with a heavier barrel, longer buttstock and different sites was adopted in 1982.

Yeppers. Forgive me, I'm getting old.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on October 23, 2017, 02:08:07 PM
While I have many more pressing things to spend my money on, a replica "A2" seems cool.  That was the "good guy" movie gun from my childhood in the 1980s.
It also seems the preferred rifle pattern for high powered service rifle matches (Iron sights).
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: NWPilgrim on October 23, 2017, 07:15:33 PM
Love the Garand!  It was THE rifle for matches when I was growing up (besides the surplus bolt .22LR).  I love shooting them, although the AR15 is something most of can actually work on, repair, build and adapt to most any situation, and is fun for new shooters to learn with.

As far as slurs, I sort of get it but not from personal experience.  My Dad fought in the Pacific in WWII and had nothing but respect for the Japanese soldier and people (he finished off stationed in Okinawa protecting supplies while preparing for Tokyo--haha MARINES protecting supplies!!! but fought on Kwajalein, Guam, and Okinawa).  From what he said I am sure the Okinawans were far less impressed with US Marines that the Marines were with them.  My brother fought in Vietnam on the DMZ (Mudders Ridge) against mostly NVA some VC.  He also had respect for the Vietnamese people and no hard feelings toward them at all.  My folks adopted a Korean child and later sponsored two Cambodian refugee families.  I was brought up that the enemy was the enemy but not dehumanized or someone to hate, it was usually their leaders.

I have a small collection of Garands, M1 Carbines and AR15s, but would love to slobber over Carl's BARs!!!
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on November 21, 2017, 10:35:41 PM
Going through my weekly junk mail pile, I see a few local places have $9.99 pmags again. 
Online is $8.99 at some places.  PSA actually had a complete AR upper for $149.99 (minus BCG)

http://palmettostatearmory.com/ptac-16-m4-5-56-nato-1-7-nitride-upper-without-bcg-or-ch-39236.html

I don't need or even "want" much of this, but for the price of couple new kitchen appliances I could outfit a small squad right now.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on February 23, 2018, 05:34:31 PM
The Window Is Closing.

While my original musings suggested that the window might be open until later this year when the Dems start parading their 2020 candidates around, recent incidents are forcing a new panic among gun buyers.

So, I'll say this: If you're looking for a modern "sporting" semi-auto, get it while you can.  It's obvious that the President is caving in (showing his true colors?) with the threat of "enhanced" background checks, raising the firearms-buying age to 21, and possible state-level bans on misnomered firearms.  This time, with the reception being given to these suggestions, I'm going to HIGHLY RECOMMEND getting what you want, if at all possible.  It would not surprise me to see another incident, fresh on the heels of this last one, arise and public sentiment/pressure getting to the point we see another ban similar to the 1994 OCB ban. . .or worse.  Remember, it's better to have it in hand than not.  We've already lost a lot of manufacturers with the past 18 months' drop in sales.  It's doubtful that many of the manufacturers of AR lowers who flooded the market at the beginning of Obama's second election will re-appear and provide enough production in time to re-glut the market.

Already, in the past week, there has been a massive jump in the number of MSR sales (Modern Sporting Rifles - the current nom-de-journée for AR or similar military style rifles).  One particular rifle, one of my "dream rifles," jumped $400 in one day and then disappeared off of all the major online sellers' shelves.

So far, ammo hasn't seen much of a jump with recent, really great sales offers by some of the bigger houses.  IIRC, one place had stripper-clipped 62-gr, green-tip Federal  (not blemishes) 420 rounds IN A CAN for $149.  That, to me, is a really good deal on clips and in a can.  Warehouses are still over-full with ammo. . .but that may change in the next couple of months.

Hopefully, this is a paper tiger we're facing. . .I fear it is not. 

In any case, I'm betting the window is drawing closed and am afraid we're going to be entering an "Interesting Times" phase that will be worse than what we found in 1995.  I'm somewhat reticent to write much more lest this find it's way into the Tin Foil Hat Brigade area.

Thoughts?

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Carl on February 23, 2018, 05:44:35 PM
 I suspect that after so many 'panics' that few will worry this time and price/production will stay fairly stable....but history is hard to deny and more people have tax money and better paying jobs now ...so you could as easily be correct.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: FreeLancer on February 23, 2018, 06:30:16 PM

Thoughts?



I think you could be right.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Canadian Prepper on February 24, 2018, 02:29:45 PM
It will be interesting to see what comes of the latest events.

Given the numbers of MSRs out there and the additional ones that will be purchased in the coming months, I wonder whether or not America's passed the threshold where they'll try to ban the guns themselves or whether we'll see attempts at some other forms of gun control implemented. If the current situation doesn't lead to any significant change in the law, perhaps it will lead to a second rush on these rifles and magazines, with the net effect of making them even more mainstream and difficult to ban.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on February 24, 2018, 07:15:41 PM
I'll be honest. . .I fully expect an outright ban on "Assault" weapons in the next four years.  If Trump doesn't do it, it will happen when he loses the next election. . .and he WILL lose it (can be argued in a separate thread). 

The kids you see screaming and crying and sobbing on TV, whining about how they can't go to the bathroom alone or can't walk back into their school or can't see a school book without suffering from paralyzing PTSD are going to come of voting age (at least 12 million of them will).  As we argue this, Democrats and liberals are openly embracing and attempting to "empower" these  young people.  I just heard a radio segment on Fox News XM/Sirius channel about a group that is spending millions of dollars "educating" high school students about their right to vote (in MY day, we had Civics Class which taught us about voting) and will be pushing to register these young voters as soon as possible.  Anyone wanna bet the party with which the vast majority will affiliate?

Anyway, IMO, they'll first start with the bump stocks and the trigger devices.  They'll probably do to them what they did to the Auto Sear, reclassify them as NFA items.  Then, an outright ban on the sale and importation of "Assault" weapons similar, but much more restrictive than the 1994 AWB.  They have, after all, had  over 20 years to scrutinize how the industry got around  most of the ridiculous restrictions the first time.

Quite possibly, they'll also move to reclassify any longarm with a detachable magazine as an NFA item.   They'll give an amnesty period during which possessors will be able to register the weapon with the ATF for free, but after that, expect a felony charge for the mere possession of even parts.  Hopefully, they won't go the route of our southern neighbors and ban ammunition in military calibers, but it wouldn't surprise me.  It only makes sense from their point of view.

It would be at this point that I'd invest in companies making 8"-diameter PVC pipes and Vapor Corrosion Inhibiting lubricants and paper.

After that, it's anyone's guess.  That's why I say "buy now."

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on February 24, 2018, 10:17:00 PM
Not AR-15 related, but I left a local gun shop with a CZ75 P-01 today.

If you want to confuse a liberal anti-gunner who's demanding changes to the background checks, ask them what about ATF form 4473 they want to change.
They will have no idea what you're talking about of course...
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Canadian Prepper on February 24, 2018, 10:32:22 PM
So has there been any indication yet of an increase in sales on guns and ammunition in the US? Anything that might effect what Canadian distributors might receive in the coming months?

We were fine with ammunition after Sandy Hook and while some firearms became less available and somewhat higher priced, there was never anything comparable. The past year brought us ARs at reduced prices that we'd never seen before, as well as reduced prices on used ones, but I'm wondering if that's a thing of the past.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on February 25, 2018, 08:33:25 AM
So has there been any indication yet of an increase in sales on guns and ammunition in the US? Anything that might effect what Canadian distributors might receive in the coming months?

$400 ARs are gone and with company reorganizations they dont look like they will be back.  Armalite, S&W, and others are still shipping base ARs in the $500 to $600 range.  Stocks of these and more expensive models seem to be readily available.  Ammo and magazine stocks on hand seem to be holding fine too with no signs of major jumps in regular prices (though basement bargain deals are vanishing).
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Canadian Prepper on February 25, 2018, 09:29:26 AM
$400 ARs are gone and with company reorganizations they dont look like they will be back.  Armalite, S&W, and others are still shipping base ARs in the $500 to $600 range.  Stocks of these and more expensive models seem to be readily available.  Ammo and magazine stocks on hand seem to be holding fine too with no signs of major jumps in regular prices (though basement bargain deals are vanishing).

Thanks for the update. Here, S&Ws are selling for $699 plus tax at Cabelas, that with the exchange rate would put them on par with US prices. They have been selling steadily as well.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Stwood on February 25, 2018, 05:37:17 PM
So, I have no need for AR's or related ammo, but what do you all think about sockin in some more 30.06 ammo? I had a boating accident and lost most of mine while doing a transfer.  :(
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Carl on February 25, 2018, 06:05:04 PM
So, I have no need for AR's or related ammo, but what do you all think about sockin in some more 30.06 ammo? I had a boating accident and lost most of mine while doing a transfer.  :(

30'06 is more like WAMMO...I keep a good stock of it and .308 and even ammo for the Five-Sevens in the armory.Looking for a bit more 50 cal though.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Stwood on February 26, 2018, 08:22:33 AM
30'06 is more like WAMMO...I keep a good stock of it and .308 and even ammo for the Five-Sevens in the armory.Looking for a bit more 50 cal though.

 8)
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on February 26, 2018, 09:15:29 AM
8)

The difference is, almost no one goes to the range and shoots hundreds of .30-06 rounds at paper for a leisurely afternoon.  This is common with the little .223
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Stwood on February 26, 2018, 12:26:14 PM
The difference is, almost no one goes to the range and shoots hundreds of .30-06 rounds at paper for a leisurely afternoon.  This is common with the little .223

Yep. I'm not into range stuff. That's a waste for me. I'd just rather stock ammo for hunting purposes, or if bookoo bad guys show up and I need some long range cannon ammo.  ;D ;D
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on February 26, 2018, 12:34:32 PM
Yep. I'm not into range stuff. That's a waste for me. I'd just rather stock ammo for hunting purposes, or if bookoo bad guys show up and I need some long range cannon ammo.  ;D ;D

I think you are fine.  Buy several boxes of your gun's favorite hunting ammo.  It'll not likely ever be cheaper than it is today.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: 88Glock on March 29, 2018, 05:47:04 AM
$400 ARs are gone and with company reorganizations they dont look like they will be back.  Armalite, S&W, and others are still shipping base ARs in the $500 to $600 range.  Stocks of these and more expensive models seem to be readily available.  Ammo and magazine stocks on hand seem to be holding fine too with no signs of major jumps in regular prices (though basement bargain deals are vanishing).

With the latest events there has definitely been an increase in sales of everything. To the point that shipping delays are common.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on March 29, 2018, 09:04:45 AM
With the latest events there has definitely been an increase in sales of everything. To the point that shipping delays are common.

I suppose it depends. In the past month I've bought some ammo and magazines are reasonable prices. Reloading components are still abundant for me.

Welcome aboard 88Glock.  I encourage you to stop by the "Front Porch"  and introduce yourself:

http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=89.msg744619#new
 (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=89.msg744619#new)


Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Stwood on March 29, 2018, 09:35:46 AM
22LR is everywhere here now.
Our Farm store had the standard box of 50 for $4.99 for a long time.
Now they are selling it 2 boxes for $5.00
I haven't bit yet.....

They have AR's on sale for 450.00 this week.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on March 29, 2018, 09:39:16 AM
I suppose it depends. In the past month I've bought some ammo and magazines are reasonable prices. Reloading components are still abundant for me.

Welcome aboard 88Glock.

Yes, welcome!

The market is really "splotchy" right now, both in terms of offerings and geographies.  Best entry level deal going is on the polymer ARs like this one for $419:

https://www.rkguns.com/ati-omni-hybrid-maxx-223-5-56-ar-15-rifle-atigomx556kmltd.html (https://www.rkguns.com/ati-omni-hybrid-maxx-223-5-56-ar-15-rifle-atigomx556kmltd.html)

Metal ones are starting in the mid 500s. 

Regarding geographies, in some states ARs are hard to come by. But here in Indiana I can walk into almost any store and have choice of at least half a dozen different models. Lowers here are in stock and selling for between $75 to $100 but on East coast see reports of sell outs and $150+.

They have AR's on sale for 450.00 this week.

Polymer or metal receiver?  If metal that is really good.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on March 29, 2018, 09:45:39 AM
One thing that's difficult about AR15s, they are a commodity and they are not at the same time.

While they are extremely popular, you can buy complete rifles ranging from $500-$2000+
You can also buy stripped lowers, kits or piece by piece with a similar price range.

It's not like a Glock19 that's a known product offering with a price tag. If glocks were out of stock nationally or suddenly had $900 price tags, that's a clear indicator of something.

I personally have, and know others who own a few extra stripped AR lowers that sit in a safe for a rainy day.  It stands to reason a ban on new sales (receivers) would come before consumable parts like barrels and bolts. Whenever I have enough disposable gun money to build another AR, I usually find another firearm purchase I want more. While I might build more ARs in the future, I might also sell my lowers and new in packaging magazines for a healthy profit in some situations.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Stwood on March 29, 2018, 10:38:08 AM
Yes, welcome!

The market is really "splotchy" right now, both in terms of offerings and geographies.  Best entry level deal going is on the polymer ARs like this one for $419:

https://www.rkguns.com/ati-omni-hybrid-maxx-223-5-56-ar-15-rifle-atigomx556kmltd.html (https://www.rkguns.com/ati-omni-hybrid-maxx-223-5-56-ar-15-rifle-atigomx556kmltd.html)

Metal ones are starting in the mid 500s. 

Regarding geographies, in some states ARs are hard to come by. But here in Indiana I can walk into almost any store and have choice of at least half a dozen different models. Lowers here are in stock and selling for between $75 to $100 but on East coast see reports of sell outs and $150+.

Polymer or metal receiver?  If metal that is really good.

The ad didn't state which one. If I get to town before the sale is over I'll ck on it.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on March 29, 2018, 10:52:45 AM
One thing that's difficult about AR15s, they are a commodity and they are not at the same time.

While they are extremely popular, you can buy complete rifles ranging from $500-$2000+
You can also buy stripped lowers, kits or piece by piece with a similar price range.

It's not like a Glock19 that's a known product offering with a price tag. If glocks were out of stock nationally or suddenly had $900 price tags, that's a clear indicator of something.

I personally have, and know others who own a few extra stripped AR lowers that sit in a safe for a rainy day.  It stands to reason a ban on new sales (receivers) would come before consumable parts like barrels and bolts. Whenever I have enough disposable gun money to build another AR, I usually find another firearm purchase I want more. While I might build more ARs in the future, I might also sell my lowers and new in packaging magazines for a healthy profit in some situations.

The problem is that if there IS a ban, many of the parts you need to fit out those lowers may be gone in a flash. 

Remember Obama's first term. . .the panic was so great that no lowers, no uppers, no lower parts kits were available and firearms.  Those complete rifles that hadn't sold immediately before his election, tripled or quadrupled in price.

Buying parts offers two things: First, it allows the average person to get what he/she needs at a lower price.  Maybe someone can't afford a $500 complete rifle, but, chances are that they can afford a forged $50 Anderson lower one week.  Two weeks later, a forged Anderson Upper for another $50.   Continuing on that particular path, they could have a complete firearm in about 8-10 weeks, if not sooner.  No, it may not be the best quality, if you go this particular route, but the person could, conceivably, even part together a Noveske, Vltor, LWRC or similar rifle the same way.  Get a torque wrench and a couple of AR-specific tools and, voila!

Second, it also allows someone to invest.  Those $50 lowers, in the case of a ban, could easily pull ten times that if the seller is patient.  Look back during the 1994 Ban.  Standard AR's, which sold for $565 - 725, were selling for upwards of $2-3K, consistently.

Hell, if the price doubled, it's better than silver or gold, right now.  My "play" money is going towards lowers and Lower Parts Kits.  Buy one or two each week and put them back.  If nothing happens, meh. . .I've got bases to build future projects on. Even if I have too many and nothing happens, I can always sell them for what I have in them.  If we go all totalitarian gun ban. . .who knows how high they'll go?

Time will tell, but I'm not too optimistic, right now.

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Carl on March 29, 2018, 11:04:33 AM
  I have plenty of LOWERS and as the only part that is SERIAL NUMBERED they ,during a BAN,will be about the only part that will be hard to find.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on March 29, 2018, 11:11:01 AM
Hey professor, given that you have been in the market, what are you seeing in parts prices especially LPKs?  Any movement?
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on March 29, 2018, 11:12:07 AM
  I have plenty of LOWERS and as the only part that is SERIAL NUMBERED they ,during a BAN,will be about the only part that will be hard to find.

Both Carl and Professor make valid arguments.  I think I'll split the difference with my strategy.

I remember back in 2012 how hard it was to find complete upper receivers, even though those were not the regulated part.
I think some higher end LPKs could be prudent to acquire.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: iam4liberty on March 29, 2018, 11:43:44 AM
Both Carl and Professor make valid arguments...
I think some higher end LPKs could be prudent to acquire.

My exact thought too.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: 88Glock on March 30, 2018, 07:42:01 PM
I suppose it depends. In the past month I've bought some ammo and magazines are reasonable prices. Reloading components are still abundant for me.

Welcome aboard 88Glock.  I encourage you to stop by the "Front Porch"  and introduce yourself:

http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=89.msg744619#new
 (http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=89.msg744619#new)

Thanks, I'll do that!

For sure there is not a run on parts and ammo, only increased shipping delays. Some things are out though like AR15 lowers and uppers from some companies. I think there is concern but not panic yet.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Carl on March 30, 2018, 08:23:05 PM
  At my member supported BOL,the armory has 1 AR per each adult member with a half dozen or so spare lowers and some different caliber uppers  available plus full spare parts kits INCLUDING a dozen spare bolts and many many MAGPUL 10 and 30 round magazines....and an embarrassing ammo supply.

I was curious...I own ONE Daniel Defence M4 and a spare parts kit with spare bolt...my choice is 30 cal. BARs,M1 Garands,M14's and a few Thompsons in 45 ACP for fun. >223 is more a varmint round in my opinion.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on March 30, 2018, 10:02:58 PM
  I have plenty of LOWERS and as the only part that is SERIAL NUMBERED they ,during a BAN,will be about the only part that will be hard to find.

I have to respectfully disagree.

After the 1994 ban + six months, parts kits and magazines were impossible to find for about two years.  Magazines came back (high-caps), but it was not uncommon to see standard Okay (Brand) mags running $25-30 for a 30-rd, used.  Mags for my M1A went upwards of $100 for almost six years.

After Obama's first election, parts kits were impossible to find for about 18 months.  Magazines disappeared off shelves in the first two weeks.  It took mags almost three months to get back in any volume. . .all of this because people were AFRAID he'd ban them

After Obama's second election, there was a three month period where  parts kits, including LPK's, UPK's and almost every "official" pin or spring were scarcer than hen's teeth.  On the upside, lowers and magazines were EVERYWHERE because plenty of people learned from Obama's FIRST election how to make lowers.  There were so many lowers (albeit at an inflated rate), that there honestly was no problem getting them, if you had the cash.  All of this because people were CERTAIN he'd ban them with no potential repercussions, now that he was re-elected.

Prices rebalanced after about six months.

You may be right. IF the weapons are "grandfathered" in.  Don't dismiss that as being inevitable.  Look at what's happening in Illinois.  Law-abiding citizens owning legal firearms are being told to turn "assault rifles" in, if they're under 21.  Illinois has a FOID card (Firearms Owners ID).  Every purchase is registered with the state.  That's both for firearms AND ammunition.  They know who has what.

Take a look, very carefully, at the proposed wording of the contemporary Assault Weapons Ban.   They didn't sit on their butts between 1994 and 2004, they took copious notes.  They removed every possible way around reformatting the firearm (featurless stocks, multiple round capacity, detachable anything, etc.).

Any such "A"WB is going to be the most comprehensive piece of legislation that can be conceived (unless, of course, members of the BOD pay the antigunners, again, to leave out certain,  named brands and styles while banning others).

IF possession is allowed, it will most likely be regulated along the lines of a Class III weapon with an amnesty period for registering at a greatly reduced, if not free, tax stamp.

We can all beat our chests and howl ". . .from our cold, dead fingers!" all we want, but some will be out there snagging up what parts are left.  If anyone continues to make them, they'll be damned expensive and, most likely, will require proof of a tax stamp to obtain.

I'm not saying that you're 100% wrong, I'm saying that history hasn't borne this out.  At the very least, repair/replacement parts will be prohibitively expensive because not everyone will want to go through the hoops.

With this in mind, I'd rather spend $50-100 for an LPK that my grandkids may inherit rather than have them try to gerry-rig a work-around.

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: The Professor on March 30, 2018, 10:16:30 PM
Hey professor, given that you have been in the market, what are you seeing in parts prices especially LPKs?  Any movement?

What I'm seeing is a slow trend upwards and cheap/inexpensive parts kits disappearing very quickly.  One one of the larger sites, a batch of Anderson LPK's came in and about 200 of them sold in one afternoon for $39.

Mid-level kits are still running $59-99, depending upon who makes them and if they have the pistol grip, or not.

In all honesty, I think we're only now seeing the beginnings of a panic.  There have been so many AR's sold in the past 12 years that it's mind-boggling.  Up until very recently, most distributors were swimming in both AR's and ammo.    You're still seeing phenomenal prices on 5.56/.223 ammo, mainly milspec because of what I call the FFL bubble burst of 2014.  With so many gun sales and the difficulty to obtain firearms for stock after Obama's second election, hundreds of gun businesses had to shut their doors.  In 2012, right after the election and past the SHOT Show of 2013, BILLIONS of rounds were ordered.  There were some interesting threads, at the time, right here on SPF about it. 

It was projected that it would take 2-5  years to fill all the orders (across the board, from .22 LR to larger calibers).  Unfortunately, no guns and ammo for stock means no cash flow for dealers.  Many couldn't weather the storm and closed their doors.  Most of those orders still stood, however, without the full distribution system to get them to the people who ordered them.  Then, eventually, the panic cooled and people who placed orders for (not exaggerating) 15K - 25K rounds sorta balked at the expenditure since their orders were coming in almost 18 months later and there was no sign of a ban.

There was a bit of a panic with this last election, but since Trump got in, people felt/feel that the threat of a ban no longer existed.

There are warehouses that are stacked to the rafters with ammo.  Mil-spec, 77-gr 5.56x45 OTBTM, the so-called "Tango Buster" has been running for less than $0.50/rd in 500 round boxes with FREE delivery.

There are additional reasons to buy now, but the evening news is the most compelling, at this moment.

All I've ever suggested is try to get them if you can.

The Professor
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: NWPilgrim on April 02, 2018, 06:05:32 AM
It will be interesting to see what happens in Oregon.  The Legislature has rightfully been hesitant to pass gun ban laws, but this election cycle we have an Initiative with enough signatures to get on the ballot (I'm sure our leftwing State Secretary won't bother in depth validating the signatures for this one like they do for conservative initiatives).  This really concerns me as Oregon voters knee jerk vote FOR any Initiative that raises taxes, "sounds happy do-good" and AGAINST any that require responsibility or protects freedom except for smoking weed.

The essence is that it will ban selling or TRANSFER of ANY semi-auto or magazine over 10 rounds.  You can keep what you have if you register it (right!!), but no one can inherit, buy or gift them ever again.  this means Marlin 60, Ruger 10/22, Mossberg 935 12 ga, Remington 1100, Benelli SBE, AR15, M1 Garand/Carbine, Browning BAR, Remington 7400, etc.  Oh yeah, and pistols. Everything!  This would not have a snowball's chance in hell in the State Legislature, but knowing some of my liberal family members they will be all over this Initiative without knowing anything about guns or having any desire to protect their families (that crap can't possibly happen to "nice" people, right?).

I am planning to finally set up a family trust or two to encapsulate all my wife's and mine property and guns, and also an NFA trust.  I want to ensure my kids and grandkids can inherit all we have by being co-owners BEFORE we die.  And I do trust all that we will put on the list with my life and any decisions along the way, great "kids".  But we are re-viving our thinking about moving to Idaho as well, where I have extended family.  If this Initiative passes I think it will take a couple of years to settle things here in Oregon and when my wife retires we just move the hell out.

I give it about a 70/30 chance of passing.  I am well stocked on guns and ammo but plan to buy a few more lowers and AR15 mags (mostly 20 and 30 rd GI as I have a crap ton of Magpuls).  I'm not worried about short term availability of LPK and uppers as I have plenty of complete guns now.  I am more concerned about the long term.  If we move to Idaho it is a moot concern.  But if for some reason we get stuck longer in Oregon, I want to pass on as many guns and lowers as possible to family.  Plan A is not to live under stupidity and oppression.  Plan B is to insulate at least our family from the worst of it.

And just remember that "transfer" can mean lending a friend a gun to take to the shooting range or hunting for the day.  Possibly even letting someone (friend, son/daughter) shoot a gun at the range while you visit the restroom.  Or they borrow your car (with a gun in the trunk from last range visit).  Could be a very insidious clause in the possible law.

I am increasing my inventory stocking levels all around starting with AR15s, then M1 Garands, then M1 Carbines, then pistols to include 50% increase of ammo and mags (from "boat load" to "1.5 boat loads") and probably adding a few guns along the way in terms of AR15 lowers and a couple of Glock Gen 4/5 pistols.  My long term projection of the intelligence of the voting public is not good, it points to the abyss. Two years? Five years? Fifty years?  I don't know the timeline but I see NO self-correcting attitude in the majority of voters, so the general direction is from bad to worse.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: David in MN on May 03, 2018, 03:51:47 PM
I put up a post on it but it belongs here too. The ammo companies are in a shift mode. Federal is starting to sell its new .224 Valkyrie round. They claim it keeps supersonic to 1300 yards.

http://www.federalpremium.com/224-valkyrie/

I'm not saying it's a guarantee but it sure ffels like there is a movement to put the 5.56to pasture. If the Valkyrie is Federal's attempt it's impressive. It's got a longer range, less wind deflection, and what do you know it works with a few upgrades to the AR platform.

Why would Federal invest so much in a cartridge that does nothing but extend the range and stopping power of the AR platform? For me the writing is on the wall that a change is coming. I'm making no claim the Valkyrie is the next military round but I do hear a lot about 6.5 Creedmoor. The gut feel I get from living 5 minutes from Anoka, MN is that the next cartridge will be optimized for ballistic coefficient.

The 5.56 was optimized to be barely enough to stop an opponent yet carry maximum rounds. That was Vietnam math. Afghanistan math is fewer rounds with better long range hits. Afghanistan isn't an AR vs. an AK.

Just my $0.02 but I feel a change coming as well.
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Smurf Hunter on May 03, 2018, 06:22:03 PM
If the mission of the typical grunt transitions from urban door kicking to designated marksman, maybe...
Title: Re: Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:
Post by: Carl on May 03, 2018, 06:39:01 PM
If the mission of the typical grunt transitions from urban door kicking to designated marksman, maybe...

I seriously doubt the 'next' military weapon will become part of the civilian market...remember how the 410 shotgun JUDGE was advertised along with the 17 rim-fire as being great personal defense weapons? With the level of communications and support our boots have now and the remote machines that can fly to and take out most any target...the need for individual fighting men is less and less as are the support and supplies needed for them...Maybe some plan to arm other countries men on the ground though.????