The Survival Podcast Forum

Survivalism & Self Sufficiency Topics => Medical Needs and First Aid => Topic started by: Mr. Bill on June 14, 2018, 11:35:03 AM

Title: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Mr. Bill on June 14, 2018, 11:35:03 AM
PLOS Medicine, 6/12/18: The state of the antivaccine movement in the United States: A focused examination of nonmedical exemptions in states and counties (http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1002578)

Quote
... many families choose to opt out their children from vaccinations required for school entry by obtaining nonmedical exemptions (NMEs) based on religious or philosophical beliefs. In 2016, 18 states permitted NMEs due to philosophical beliefs. A detailed analysis of NMEs within each of the 18 states reveals that several counties, including those with large metropolitan areas, are at high risk for vaccine-preventable pediatric infection epidemics. ...

NME data were collected from all 18 states currently permitting philosophical-belief NMEs (Arkansas [AR], Arizona [AZ], Colorado [CO], Idaho [ID], Louisiana [LA], Maine [ME], Michigan [MI], Minnesota [MN], Missouri [MO], North Dakota [ND], Ohio [OH], Oklahoma [OK], Oregon [OR], Pennsylvania [PA], Texas [TX], Utah [UT], Washington [WA], and Wisconsin [WI]). ... VT, CA, MS, and WV were excluded from our analysis because they no longer have NMEs in their respective states. ... The state NME rate is represented by the number of entering kindergarteners with a documented NME out of the total kindergarten enrollments in the state. ...

From our analysis, 12 of the 18 states permitting religious and philosophical-belief NMEs demonstrated an overall upward trend of enrolling kindergarteners with NMEs since 2009: AR, AZ, ID, ME, MN, MO, ND, OH, OK, OR, TX, and UT. ...

Beyond the statewide data, many county-level NME rates were publicly available from state health departments for the school year 2016 to 2017. ...of the 14 states that were analyzed, ID had an abundance of counties with the highest NME rates: Camas (26.67%), Bonner (19.65%), Valley (18.18%), Custer (17.14%), Idaho (16.06%), Boise (15.63%), Kootenai (14.91%), and Boundary (14.61%). WI’s Bayfield County was ranked 6th in overall NME percent (15.70%), and UT’s Morgan County (14.55%) was ranked 10th. ...

Furthermore, we examined total numbers of kindergarteners with NMEs per county to identify focal areas with large numbers of potentially vulnerable pediatric populations. ... They include Phoenix, AZ (Maricopa County); Salt Lake City, UT and Provo, UT (Salt Lake and Utah Counties, respectively); Seattle, WA and Spokane, WA (King and Spokane Counties, respectively); Portland, OR (Multnomah County); Troy, MI, Warren, MI, and Detroit, MI (Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne Counties, respectively); Houston, TX, Fort Worth, TX, Plano, TX, and Austin, TX (Harris, Tarrant, Collin, and Travis Counties, respectively); Pittsburgh, PA (Allegheny County); and Kansas City, MO (Jackson County). The high numbers of NMEs in these densely populated urban centers suggest that outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases could either originate from or spread rapidly throughout these populations of unimmunized, unprotected children. The fact that the largest count of vaccine-exempt pediatric populations originate in large cities with busy international airports may further contribute to this risk. ...

...a child with an NME from the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine is 35 times more likely to contract measles than is a vaccinated child. Moreover, a child without the diphtheria, tetanus, and acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccine is 3 times more likely to contract pertussis than is a vaccinated child. NMEs weaken herd immunity that protects the population at large, particularly children who are unable to get vaccinated for medical reasons. The target vaccination coverage rate to achieve the ideal herd immunity is 90% to 95%, depending on the infectious agent. ...

Heat map of county-level nonmedical exemption rates
(http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article/figure/image?size=inline&id=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002578.g002) (http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article/figure?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1002578.g002)
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Hurricane on June 14, 2018, 03:58:39 PM
I don't question the need for, and value of vaccines. The question is, what else is in those shots?
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: AvenueQ on June 14, 2018, 04:06:30 PM
I believe the county I used to live in CO (Jefferson) at one point had the highest national vaccine exemption rate...though it could also have been Boulder county, which was only one county over. Jefferson county has a population of ~400,000, with most of the surrounding counties being similar in size.

I'm a little relieved that Nevada doesn't have this exemption.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: FreeLancer on June 14, 2018, 04:13:05 PM
California no longer allows NME, but there's enough sleazy/shady/crackpot docs willing to trade medical exemptions for cold hard cash to keep the state's overall exemption rate high. 
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: David in MN on June 14, 2018, 05:52:05 PM
Bad data. I hate to be a broken clock on this stuff but the data assumes that a state that doesn't have the exemption has full immunization. Poppycock. Then they have the guile to use a sliding scale where the highest bracket is 5-30%. Seems a little arbitrary to me and not at all how something should be reported. One would suppose we top out at a 30% county but they fail to report which county it is.

Also, the data only presents "non-medical vaccine exemptions". We are left wanting for total non-vaccinated numbers (which I presume are much higher). We would need data on medical exemptions, unvaccinated immigrants, older people who didn't get the full modern course, etc. For all we know from this data NMEs aren't even the leading cause those not vaccinated.

Feels like scientifically inaccurate fear mongering.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: mountainmoma on June 14, 2018, 08:31:25 PM
Another very real problem with reporting about vaccination exemptions is that they report all or nothing, and you file an exemption all or nothing. I have done this, if, for example, you decide not to vaccinate the new HPV vaccine, but did vaccinate for MMR, DTP and polio, you would have to file an exemption, and the school would just report the child as "exempt" . Many exempt filers actually have a least some vaccines.

The vaccines required in a given school district may be very different than in another state, it is even possible that parent A complying with requirements in their district and parent B who has not complied have actually chosent to give the exact same vaccines, but that school district B has a few on teh required list that are optional in district A , an both families have decided to avoid that one ! The point is, you dont know much from the map.


Then, the news likes to "report" in the most controversial way possible, and does not even mention the limitations to the data
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: mountainmoma on June 14, 2018, 08:36:54 PM
This is a very politically charged topic, having alot to do with parental rights to choose medical treatment for their children.

And, you can see the divisiveness potential from the comments here. " My opinion is right, and any other ways of looking at this topic is crazy, " that is the message I see on this topic.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: David in MN on June 15, 2018, 05:34:42 AM
And the data captures those who took the exemption in order to get the shots at 2 years of age rather than 6 months.

Digging through the actual data (I'm a nerd) it's a little worrisome that it got a title about "the state of antivaccine..." because I'm dubious of studies with a conclusion built into the title.

They did do the courtesy of publishing some actual data (rare in medicine these days) and they actually did try to correlate NMEs to kindergarten cases of measles, mumps, and rubella (presuming there would be a link) and reported Spearman correlation of rho=.03. I presume they used Spearman because R squared would have been 0 and even rho=.03 is about as non-linear a response as one could get. They reported it as meaningful, though, which I suppose is a method of reporting unsubstantiated conclusions to an uninformed audience.

The sad (unreported to those who don't speak statistics) truth is that this study offers no actual conclusion and instead of leading with the correlation of NMEs to disease which didn't pan out they fell back on a poorly designed scaremongering "heat map" that offers almost no valuable information and whose methodology could be picked apart by a well informed 5th grader.

Someday math will win out. But not soon.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: surfivor on June 15, 2018, 09:28:51 AM
Quote
And the data captures those who took the exemption in order to get the shots at 2 years of age rather than 6 months.

 Gee, someone questioned medical advice and thought they would use their own judgement after doing some research, can't do that can we
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Mr. Bill on June 15, 2018, 09:36:39 PM
...the data assumes that a state that doesn't have the exemption has full immunization. ...

That, I do not see.  They merely limited their study to states with the exemption -- hence all the white areas on the map.

I don't much care about their statistical stuff -- it's the locations with lots of unvaccinated kids that interest me.  I'm looking at this as a prepping issue.  If you (or your family members) are susceptible to infection by these diseases (because you can't be safely vaccinated, or because you chose not to get vaccinated, or because you have an immune system problem), it's worth considering whether you really want to live in places like Camas County ID or Maricopa County AZ if you can avoid it.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: David in MN on June 17, 2018, 01:14:04 PM
I don't much care about their statistical stuff -- it's the locations with lots of unvaccinated kids that interest me.  I'm looking at this as a prepping issue.  If you (or your family members) are susceptible to infection by these diseases (because you can't be safely vaccinated, or because you chose not to get vaccinated, or because you have an immune system problem), it's worth considering whether you really want to live in places like Camas County ID or Maricopa County AZ if you can avoid it.

Again, using the studies own data, the correlation of NMEs to measles, mumps, and rubella is not statistically significant. In other words, NMEs don't drive infections (at least in the parameters of the study). This study suggests that in keeping your kids safe from some diseases NMEs are not a good indicator.

Beyond this, there are multitudes of other possible avenues for disease other than NMEs. I would think living in proximity to a port or busy airport would carry increased risk.

Bottom line, even if you were trying to use this data to make a decision the study itself refutes its value and there are very likely more significant variables.

That, I do not see.  They merely limited their study to states with the exemption -- hence all the white areas on the map.

Yes, they chose to color the states with no data white, But the scale of "danger" goes from pale pink to reddish. This gives the casual viewer the belief that the white states are (on the scale) below .1%. They should have been colored gray and indicated that there is no data in the key. These are sort of red flags to anyone with a statistical background that the results are being massaged to influence the viewer.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: surfivor on June 18, 2018, 02:23:02 AM
Yea, I don’t know why I get the impression that all the cutting-edge research on vaccine effectiveness is mostly hundreds of years old. We are just told that vaccines work and it matters not what kind of vaccine it is whether smallpox, polio, or whatever they may invent. They just throw them all into the same boat along with flu vaccines. Any thinking person should see a problem there. I also hear claims that vaccines are not really tested for safety
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Mr. Bill on November 19, 2018, 11:38:02 AM
Chickenpox outbreak in Asheville NC:

11/17/18: School with major chickenpox outbreak has high vaccination exemption rate (https://www.kare11.com/article/news/nation-world/school-with-major-chickenpox-outbreak-has-high-vaccination-exemption-rate/507-615528669)

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...As of Friday, 36 students at Asheville Waldorf School had contracted the varicella virus, known to most as chickenpox. The school has one of the highest vaccination religious exemption rates in the state. ...

...the outbreak at Asheville Waldorf should cause concern, said Dr. Jennifer Mullendore of Buncombe County Department of Health and Human Services.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, chickenpox is particularly dangerous to infants, pregnant women those with compromised immune systems, such as people who are HIV positive or coming out of cancer treatment.

"People don't think it's a serious disease, and for the majority of people it's not. But it's not that way for everybody," Mullendore said. Two to three out of every 1,000 children infected with chickenpox required care in a hospital, she said. ...

Those recommendations have by and large have gone unheeded by the parents of Asheville Waldorf's 152 students — 110 of whom have not received the chickenpox vaccine, which was made available in the United States in 1995. ...


American Journal of Public Health, 9/12/18: Weaponized Health Communication: Twitter Bots and Russian Trolls Amplify the Vaccine Debate (https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304567)

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...Russian trolls and sophisticated Twitter bots post content about vaccination at significantly higher rates than does the average user. Content from these sources gives equal attention to pro- and antivaccination arguments. This is consistent with a strategy of promoting discord across a range of controversial topics—a known tactic employed by Russian troll accounts. ...

Unlike troll accounts, content polluters (i.e., disseminators of malware, unsolicited commercial content, and other disruptive material that typically violates Twitter’s terms of service) post antivaccine messages 75% more often than does the average nonbot Twitter user. This suggests that vaccine opponents may disseminate messages using bot networks that are primarily designed for marketing. By contrast, spambots, which can be easily recognized as nonhuman, are less likely to promote an antivaccine agenda than are nonbots. ...

Several accounts could not be positively identified as either bots or humans because of intermediate or unavailable Botometer scores. These accounts, together constituting 93% of our random sample from the vaccine stream, tweeted content that was both more polarized and more opposed to vaccination than is that of the average nonbot account. Although the provenance of their tweets is unclear, we speculate that these accounts may possess a higher proportion of trolls or cyborgs—accounts nominally controlled by human users that are, on occasion, taken over by bots or otherwise exhibit bot-like or malicious behavior. ...

Finally, trolls—exhibiting malicious behaviors yet operated by humans—are also likely to fall within this middle range. This suggests that proportionally more antivaccine tweets may be generated by accounts using a somewhat sophisticated semiautomated approach to avoid detection. This creates the false impression of grassroots debate regarding vaccine efficacy—a technique known as “astroturfing”...
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: cmxterra on November 19, 2018, 02:31:55 PM


This..

Ignorance of the science of vaccines is not an argument against them. 

Chickenpox outbreak in Asheville NC:

11/17/18: School with major chickenpox outbreak has high vaccination exemption rate (https://www.kare11.com/article/news/nation-world/school-with-major-chickenpox-outbreak-has-high-vaccination-exemption-rate/507-615528669)


American Journal of Public Health, 9/12/18: Weaponized Health Communication: Twitter Bots and Russian Trolls Amplify the Vaccine Debate (https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304567)
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Mr. Bill on November 19, 2018, 03:12:49 PM
When I was a kid in the 1960s, nobody had chickenpox vaccinations, but the virus was always floating around at low levels, and I assume the constant exposure (i.e. natural vaccination) gave us a little bit of immunity.  It would spread around our school now and then, and I caught it eventually.  But we never had a situation like this one in Asheville, where one-third of the unvaccinated students (so far) have come down with the disease at the same time.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: mountainmoma on November 24, 2018, 12:31:31 AM
The reason the kids came down with it all at the same time is that once one got it, the parents purposely make sure the others are exposed as they want them to get it.  This is because this was at  waldorf school, which has a specific spiritual reason and viewpoint of normal childhood illnesses role in normal childhood developement.  And, since it is getting harder to come in contact with chicken pox in the general population, once one kid got it the phone tree went to work to let the other parents know of the opportunity.  This would not be done for serious childhood illnesses, but chicken pox is seen as the most mild one, so it is the one to expose the kids to to get a childhood illness experience without the risks of a mor serious illness.  Anyway, this has absolutely nothing to do with russian trolls or any other printed information or alt news or opinions, it is a settled part of the spiritual viewpoint of anthroposophy and specifically anthroposophical medicine, and this spiritual belief system has been around for like 100 years, so well before the internet.

I hesitated to post on this as I am realy not in the mood for ridicule.  But, I will say this, if you look this up completely disregard wikipedia as that has got to be the most  inaccurate garbage I have ever read on the subject of anthrophosophy. 

In any case, you should expect alot more of this at waldorf schools, as I said, as having chicken pox parties is now the only way to ensure exposure before they get to aldulthood.  I know how hard it was to find an opportunity to expose my youngest to chicken pox, so I get it.  It is real easy to have them all get it at once when you invite them over to the sick kids house and have the kids purposely double dip in the snack dip, share lollypops, etc... While you may not understand it be assured that people are going to continue to practice their deeply held values and beliefs.  If you want to do statistics, what should be done is to do a follow up as the years go by, a controlled study or something, and compare future health outcomes of the vaccnated vs. purposely exposed kids and see, that way we wont have to speculate on which approach results in an overall long term more robust and healthier person.


Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: David in MN on November 24, 2018, 08:39:01 AM
The reason the kids came down with it all at the same time is that once one got it, the parents purposely make sure the others are exposed as they want them to get it.  This is because this was at  waldorf school, which has a specific spiritual reason and viewpoint of normal childhood illnesses role in normal childhood developement.  And, since it is getting harder to come in contact with chicken pox in the general population, once one kid got it the phone tree went to work to let the other parents know of the opportunity.  This would not be done for serious childhood illnesses, but chicken pox is seen as the most mild one, so it is the one to expose the kids to to get a childhood illness experience without the risks of a mor serious illness.  Anyway, this has absolutely nothing to do with russian trolls or any other printed information or alt news or opinions, it is a settled part of the spiritual viewpoint of anthroposophy and specifically anthroposophical medicine, and this spiritual belief system has been around for like 100 years, so well before the internet.

I hesitated to post on this as I am realy not in the mood for ridicule.  But, I will say this, if you look this up completely disregard wikipedia as that has got to be the most  inaccurate garbage I have ever read on the subject of anthrophosophy. 

In any case, you should expect alot more of this at waldorf schools, as I said, as having chicken pox parties is now the only way to ensure exposure before they get to aldulthood.  I know how hard it was to find an opportunity to expose my youngest to chicken pox, so I get it.  It is real easy to have them all get it at once when you invite them over to the sick kids house and have the kids purposely double dip in the snack dip, share lollypops, etc... While you may not understand it be assured that people are going to continue to practice their deeply held values and beliefs.  If you want to do statistics, what should be done is to do a follow up as the years go by, a controlled study or something, and compare future health outcomes of the vaccnated vs. purposely exposed kids and see, that way we wont have to speculate on which approach results in an overall long term more robust and healthier person.

Far from ridicule you knocked it out of the park. We considered a Waldorf school a while back and they definitely attract a certain fringe. I can't imagine one in Asheville (which also attracts a fringe). It's a very niche set of people.

I sound like a broken record with my "bad data" claims but these are the patterns you look for when you analyze a statistical claim.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Mr. Bill on November 24, 2018, 09:32:54 AM
The reason the kids came down with it all at the same time is that once one got it, the parents purposely make sure the others are exposed as they want them to get it.  This is because this was at  waldorf school, which has a specific spiritual reason and viewpoint of normal childhood illnesses role in normal childhood developement. ...

If someone intentionally gets their child infected with a serious disease for medical reasons, I would be able to criticize it, but if they're doing the same thing for religious reasons, I can't.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: surfivor on November 24, 2018, 09:45:45 AM

How serious is chicken pox in reality? I am not sure if I heard that it is more serious for an adult to get it.

The argument seems to be that even if hardly anyone dies from it, if just one person might die then everyone else should be forced to be vaccinated. This is a good system for those selling medicines
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Alan Georges on November 24, 2018, 09:54:41 AM
How serious is chicken pox in reality? I am not sure if I heard that it is more serious for an adult to get it.
I had it in my early 20's, and it was horrible.  Not life-threatening, but horrible for about four days, and I looked like something from a zombie flick for about a month afterward.  I mean as in "people jump out of my way on a sidewalk" looking horrible.  Still have a few scars from it, decades later.

Whichever course you choose, get your kids either vaccinated or infected at an appropriately young age.  It's a miserable disease when you're older.  I could see it being a killer under austere conditions.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: mountainmoma on November 24, 2018, 04:29:34 PM
I had it in my early 20's, and it was horrible.  Not life-threatening, but horrible for about four days, and I looked like something from a zombie flick for about a month afterward.  I mean as in "people jump out of my way on a sidewalk" looking horrible.  Still have a few scars from it, decades later.

Whichever course you choose, get your kids either vaccinated or infected at an appropriately young age.  It's a miserable disease when you're older.  I could see it being a killer under austere conditions.

It is common for many to vaccinate later, in early adulthood or teenagerhood for certain diseases that they did not get as children for example not vaccinating for MMR, but doing it later because there was never an opportunity to get it when young.  Measles and mumps are not good to get as adults, and not good for pregnant women to get measles/ rubella.  So vaccinations on this for late teens who did not get the illness is very common, my youngest got MMR vaccine at 18 or 19 years old.  The common, if not universal one to give them when little is tetnus or the combo tetnus diptheria ( Td), and polio at some point. 

Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: mountainmoma on November 24, 2018, 05:19:52 PM
Far from ridicule you knocked it out of the park. We considered a Waldorf school a while back and they definitely attract a certain fringe. I can't imagine one in Asheville (which also attracts a fringe). It's a very niche set of people.

I sound like a broken record with my "bad data" claims but these are the patterns you look for when you analyze a statistical claim.

I am part of this fringe, which is why I know exactly why one would expect this to happen. 

Anthroposophical medicine is more of a thing in Europe, but we also have it here.  So, I had an anthroposophical doctor for my families GP for many years. She was a fully licensed MD, worked part time in a major local hospitals emergency room as an emergency room physician and then had her own private practice the other half the week.  So anthroposophical medicine is practiced by licensed MD's, not random herbalists...... they know when you or your childs illness is serious and can give good information on treatment options and vaccines  -  anyway, do not think all doctors think every child should have every vaccine, especially on the CDC's scheduale.  European countries will even have anthroposophical doctors within the nation health service, the netherlands for sure pays for it publicly. It is also a big thing in germany, sweden, switzerland, the Uk and austria, but I did not take the time to look up which or all have it paid for by the government.

So, it is not a religion it is  a philosophical outlook that is different than our current mainstream medical approach.  Osteopaths are also different than our mainstream medical approach, but an OD is regarded to be an alternate to an MD, very different way to look at the reasons and treatment of disease form an OD or an MD, so an anthroposophical MD is also a different philosophy of reasons and treatments than a mainstream MD.  Criticize all you want , but it would be better to acknowledge that this is an established alternate philosophy and practice of medicine, it is not " quack". If you want to criticize it as quack, then first you would need to get the studies done to show worse outcomes for these medical practices, of which there are none.  You of course do not need to bring yourself or your family to an OD or an anthroposophical MD, you can stay with mainstream Md's. 

I think it is a hard time we are in where people are getting more controlling of others and wanting everyone to all think the same way. This is happening in all spheres, you cannot give your own true beliefs - political, medical, educational, firearms, the list goes on and on.  Without much thought or evidence a state like california has done away with any and all vaccine exemptions, including religious. So, more people are homeschooling.  This would be par for the course out here as the same argument used for guns was applied to vaccines, ie., we dont care about peoples rights if it saves just one life.....

Anyway, while there is a spiritual component to anthroposophy, and this underlies anthroposophical medicine, still it is not a religion but has a different view of the role of illness in the overall health of the person, it looks at the entire life, not the convenience of this moment, there is value seen for the role of normal childhood illnesses and also to allowing fevers during an illness.  Since there is a whole systems approach to this style of medicine, it is likely very different from someone just saying " I dont want vaccines"  in that the anthroposophical treatment of the illness and the sick ( and the well) child is also very different than the mainstream, so it is not just putting off the vaccines the whole health approach is different.  If one was to forgo vaccines without having the full approach to health, likely their outcomes would be much worse.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: LvsChant on November 27, 2018, 10:18:58 AM
If someone intentionally gets their child infected with a serious disease for medical reasons, I would be able to criticize it, but if they're doing the same thing for religious reasons, I can't.

I'm not sure what the motivations are, but I recall a situation similar when my boys were very young. In my homeschooling group, I recall one mother stating that she had chicken pox at her house and offered to allow other moms to bring their kids over to be exposed to it. It seems to me that the idea was that it would be a way to get the whole family through the disease at one time, rather than dragging it out over time (don't know if that is even a correct assumption). It was considered by them to be a very low-risk typical childhood disease that wasn't to be feared. I had vaccinated my boys, hoping that they wouldn't get it. I know that those who have chicken pox as children sometimes experience scarring and then have a high chance of getting shingles later in life... it would be nice to avoid that for them.

There were some in the group who had a moral objection to the way that the vaccines are prepared (I believe it was related to the use of embryonic tissue, but cannot remember the details). While I respected their right to that opinion (and agreed with them on some levels), I wasn't willing to take the chance that one of my children would die of a preventable childhood disease when a vaccine was available and highly effective.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Mr. Bill on January 27, 2019, 04:36:52 PM
Measles outbreak leads to state of emergency in Washington State:

News release, 1/25/19: Inslee declares local public health emergency after identifying outbreak of measles (https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-declares-local-public-health-emergency-after-identifying-outbreak-measles)

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Gov. Jay Inslee declared a state of emergency today in all counties in response to more than two dozen confirmed cases of measles in our state.

“Measles is a highly contagious infectious disease that can be fatal in small children,” Inslee stated in his proclamation. “The existence of 26 confirmed cases in the state of Washington creates an extreme public health risk that may quickly spread to other counties.”

The proclamation directs state agencies and departments to utilize state resources and do everything reasonably possible to assist affected areas. A proclamation is also necessary to utilize the Emergency Management Assistance Compact to request additional medical resources from other states.

The Washington State Department of Health has instituted an infectious disease Incident Management Structure to manage the public health aspects of the incident to include investigations, laboratory testing and other efforts to protect communities. Meanwhile, the Washington Military Department is coordinating resources to support DOH and local officials in alleviating the impacts to people, property and infrastructure. ...

CNN: Washington is under a state of emergency as measles cases rise (https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/26/health/washington-state-measles-state-of-emergency/index.html)

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...One or two of every 1,000 children who get measles will die from complications, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In 1978, the CDC set a goal to eliminate measles from the United States by 1982. Measles was declared eliminated -- defined by absence of continuous disease transmission for greater than 12 months -- from the United States in 2000. ...

Current count of measles cases in WA (updated every afternoon):
Measles Outbreak 2019 (https://www.doh.wa.gov/YouandYourFamily/IllnessandDisease/Measles/MeaslesOutbreak?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery)

35 confirmed cases as of today.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 14, 2019, 08:34:04 PM
True or false: Measles keeps you healthy and fights cancer

(Spoiler: The answers are "no" and "look at this cool treatment".)

Nice overview here by a Metabunk forum member:
Can measles make you healthier and fight cancer? (https://www.metabunk.org/can-measles-make-you-healthier-and-fight-cancer.t10464/)

Quote
...But what if you survive measles complication free? Is your immune system stronger? The answer turns out to be the exact opposite. In every country, measles vaccines are associated with decrease risk of death from all disease... A team of scientists from four different institutions investigated this correlation and found that being infected with measles actually creates a sort of "immune amnesia" where the patient is more likely to be infected and die of other infectious disease over the next 2 to 3 years. ...

...the measles virus being used for [multiple myeloma] treatment was not a natural one. ... the virus used to cure this patient's cancer is the same that would be used in a vaccine. So, it could be argued that a heavy dose of measles vaccine actually has the potential to treat certain cancers. Virotherapy is a form of cancer treatment that is currently being heavily studied and a weakened, non-infectious form of virus is used in every case. ...
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on February 14, 2019, 10:59:53 PM
This growing measles panic is hillarious to me.  When I was in school we had hundreds of thousands of cases a year and of those maybe 100 deaths a year.  Yet now people are in full panic over a hundred cases with no deaths or serious events.  Over past couple decades there have been a couple deaths and I believe those were immigrant related. 100 times more kids die from football injuries than measles (about 15 per year).  Current kindergarten double dose vaccination is at record 94%, way above what is needed for herd immunization.  So there is no compelling reason to threaten parents over this.  It is silly that news media is treating this as some grave epidemic. As Slate puts it:

https://slate.com/technology/2019/02/measles-outbreak-clark-county-overblown.html (https://slate.com/technology/2019/02/measles-outbreak-clark-county-overblown.html)
SCIENCE
Stop Talking About Measles
News reporting on the measles outbreak has a spotty record.


It’s also worth considering that, even today, the incidence of measles—and its total impact on American public health—remains minuscule...The number of Americans who die from measles every year, in this era of resurgence, matches up to the annual number of Americans who get killed by scorpions.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: surfivor on February 15, 2019, 02:21:19 AM

Yes, I am very unconvinced and it seems to discredit the medical establishment the position they take. Some expert on NPR said at one time 120 people in Europe died from measles and because of that vaccine exemptions should not be allowed. You pretty much have to question just about anything they tell you including various stats on who died from what and cross check it with other sources
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on February 15, 2019, 06:40:03 AM
Oh, I should have made clear that the panic I am referring to isnt about Mr Bill's posts. Those are obviously well thought out and looking at drivers of hotspots is logical.  It is about past two weeks there is huge push in media with talk of measle epidemic, need to put parents in prison for child abuse if they dont vaccinate, eliminating religious exemptions to law, etc. They rove social media in an attack pack. Virtue signaling on measles has now replaced metoo as the cause of the day.

The rhetoric by the politicians is over the top, especially in Washington.  Public disaster that affects the public peace, LOL.  Whatever you do, dont show the govenor statistics regarding pools.  He may declare war!

https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/2019-01-28/state-of-emergency-after-measles-outbreak-in-washington?context=amp (https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/2019-01-28/state-of-emergency-after-measles-outbreak-in-washington?context=amp)
Measles Outbreak Prompts State of Emergency in Washington

"The measles outbreak and its effects impact the life and health of our people, as well as the economy of Washington State, and is a public disaster that affects life, health, property or the public peace," Gov. Jay Inslee said in a proclamation declaring the statewide emergency.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: David in MN on February 15, 2019, 07:56:04 AM
https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html

All one need do is look at the data. The CDC reports that the most recent outbreaks were unvaccinated Orthodox Jews in NY and Somali immigrants in MN. Immediately followed by an amusement park in CA. But I have my "heat map" and CA is safe!

Even so... let's parse the data on the two up front outbreaks. I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that an Orthodox Jew in Manhattan has maybe a little better life than a Somali in Minneapolis. I've been to both places after all. The pattern is simply when large numbers of unvaccinated people live in an insular way disease spreads. Not shocking to anyone.

Then we move to third case. An unvaccinated foreigner. You can't stop that. Even if customs asked about vaccine history I'd just lie. I've never looked up the vaccine schedule for any country I've been to. And (lending from one memorable experience) I'd have told the Dutch guy who stripped me naked while pointing a machine gun at me anything. I just wanted the connecting flight to Italy.

The data is self evident. Insular communities and global travel are the big risks. You can, to a degree, control your community. You can't control the travel vector when we live in a world where you board a plane in Hong Kong and get off in Kansas. Even in states that require 100% compliance like California.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on February 16, 2019, 09:08:03 AM
It is really getting over the top:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/parents-are-at-war-over-measles-outbreak (https://www.thedailybeast.com/parents-are-at-war-over-measles-outbreak)
Parents Are at War Over Measles Outbreak

anti-vaxxer moms and dads say they have received death threats from furious parents, blaming them for the outbreak. Moms and dads who stand for “vaccine choice” have become pariahs of the community, they said, for exercising their legal right to opt out of the vaccinations. (In Oregon and Washington, residents can choose not to get the shots for non-religious “personal” reasons.)

“I’ve been told I’m a terrible mother, that families like mine should live in quarantine, that we should be jailed—and that our son should be taken from us,” said Jodie B., a 45-year-old mom who lives near Portland


And these peo-violence vaxxers have no clue of the underlying science.  Look at this quote: “These parents don’t understand herd immunity. For it to work, we all have to do it.”  That is the exact opposite of the definition.  "Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune."  The whole advantage of heard immunity is that it isnt necessary for everyone to be vaccinated for a population to be protected from epidemics. Once you get above about 80% there is massive diminishing returns.  So no need for draconian vaccination measures.  Double-dose vaccination is at record highs, well above 90% in Washington.

Haven't seen panic and sentiments like this since Japanese internment.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 16, 2019, 12:46:55 PM
Yes, we should never make decisions based on media scare stories.  But this applies equally to the anti-vax scare stories being spread by (and often for the financial benefit of) alternative websites and spokespersons.

It's a complicated issue.  First, we can't get "clean" news, because the news media (including most alternative news sources) are an entertainment/advertising industry.

Between news media and social media, the news we do get is sorted, amplified, or suppressed, in very strange ways (e.g. based on politics, religion, education, social class, etc, rather than on actual truthfulness and reliability).

It's in our nature to be more trusting of people that we like, and who are like us.  So we end up getting a disproportionate amount of our news from people (and media sources) that seem to share our politics, religion, education, social class, etc.

Add to this our love of the hero refusing to surrender in the face of massive opposition.  The right of dissent is vital, but not every dissenter is heroic (or factually correct).  It's easy to slide into conspiracy theories about lone scientists being censored and suppressed -- and to discount the research results from majority scientists.

All of the above is a great culture medium for division and mistrust.  There's evidence that Russia et al are seeding our news stream to encourage this, but us Americans are perfectly capable of doing it all on our own.

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" -- Isaac Asimov, 1980

We assume that every problem requires government legislation, regulation, and enforcement.  But government action is always binary: either something is forbidden or it's allowed.  Even in the rare situations where science can give us a neat binary result (e.g. the Earth is not flat), we argue about it -- and usually, science can only give us probabilities.

Morality (religious or otherwise) doesn't give us binary answers either.  (Thou shalt not kill.  Certain restrictions may apply.  Not available in all areas.  Unlimited right-to-life plans may be limited under some circumstances.)

Complicated enough, even if only one person has to bear the consequences of the decision.  But with vaccination, we've also got:

For healthcare decisions, are parental rights unlimited?  At present, America says no.  We hear tragic stories of parents who fed their newborn a vegan diet, or prayed instead of phoning 911 when a child was near death from illness or injury.  Most of us agree that these parents should have any surviving children removed from their care, and in some cases should be prosecuted.  So where do we draw the (binary) line?  Everyone seems pretty sure of themselves about where to draw the line on vaccinations.  Why?  What makes your line right and my line wrong?  (Remember, only government can save us, so one of us has to win.)

Here's where I draw my line:

Measles is well documented to be dangerous, because of the disease itself and also because it induces "immune amnesia" so that you lose your resistance to other diseases for a few years.  The measles vaccine, in contrast, is well documented to be non-dangerous for nearly all people.

When measles was common, most of us acquired a little immunity because of frequent exposure to weakened and killed viruses in our environment.  The cost of this natural immunity was that lots of kids suffered the disease, and a few suffered lasting effects or death.  Now that the virus is uncommon, we no longer have this natural immunity (or its cost).  So we MUST replace it with artificial exposure to a safe form of the virus.

If, for no medical reason, you refuse to give your child a measles vaccine, you are a negligent parent.

If you intentionally infect your child with measles, you ought to go to jail.

Sorry if that's too blunt, but that's my opinion.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: FreeLancer on February 16, 2019, 02:10:54 PM
^^^^^^^^^This!!!!

Well said, Mr Bill. As usual.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on February 16, 2019, 02:33:37 PM
The medical data is easily accessible

Fact: vaccinations are at highest rate in US history.  We are way beyond herd immunity levels for measles and there is no risk of an epidemic.

Fact: measles deaths are at an all time low.  These recent so called pockets have not produced any.  The US is not some third world country with a socialized system where a measles outbreak is a threat.

Fact: the possibility of serious injury or death from measles is far less than participating in academic sports.  There are 10x - 100x more deaths from football than measles https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/09/21/health/football-deaths-season-injuries-high-school-college-trnd/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/09/21/health/football-deaths-season-injuries-high-school-college-trnd/index.html)

Fact: vaccines carry their own risk with serious effects including death.  There have been more deaths from vaccine interactions than from measles in last two decades.  Taxpayers have paid out over $4 Billion in compensatory damages.  This isnt to say that vaccines arent a good trade-off just that there is a downside.

Fact: measles is a highly contageous but not very serious disease for children.  Chance of serious complication is somewhere around 1 in 30,000.  Again, this is far lower than children sports, boating, and even agricultural accidents.

Fact: the foster care system has serious issues: https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=130266&page=1 (https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=130266&page=1)  It should only be used when other options are exhausted.

Fact: there is no provision in law for 100% mandatory vaccination. It is against the rule of law to promote such threats.

Some questions:

What happened in last year that turned these loving parents from being viewed as good neighbors and pillars of their community into public enemies who should be imprisoned?

Should parents who allow their children to play sports, go boating, or work on family farm also be thrown in prison?  That is far more dangerous than not being vaccinated for measles.

Do you really believe children will be better off in foster care than with their parents?

When has US turned against freedom of religion?  What do you propose be done to peaceful groups like the Amish, Native Americans, certain Jewish and Islamic adherents?  Also, if, as you imply, these groups now have natural protection built up which the vaccinated population no longer has, wouldnt it be beneficial to retain that against possibility current vaccine becomes inneffective?
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: FreeLancer on February 16, 2019, 03:04:55 PM
If the consequences of antivax parents’ decisions could be limited solely to the health of their own children, have fun with it. But highly contagious disease doesn’t work that way.

The vaccination rate necessary to sustain measles herd immunity has to remain extremely high, considerably higher than most other vaccine preventable infections, which leaves little wiggle room beyond true medical exemptions.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on February 16, 2019, 03:14:31 PM
If the consequences of antivax parents’ decisions could be limited solely to the health of their own children, have fun with it. But highly contagious disease doesn’t work that way.

The vaccination rate necessary to sustain measles herd immunity has to remain extremely high, considerably higher than most other vaccine preventable infections, which leaves little wiggle room beyond true medical exemptions.

We are way above that rate.  We are at highest measles vaccination rate in US history.  Our rate is so high CDC raised their target because no chance of falling below previous goal. So why the panic now rather than ten years ago? 

See google trends showing the previous false alarm in 2015 and now: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=Measles (https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=Measles)  Curious how we get these panics.  And you can see from map that they are heavily from Washington and Oregon.

And why measles?  Why not tackle something like tetanus which would have a possible benefit?
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: FreeLancer on February 16, 2019, 03:31:20 PM
We are way above that rate.  We are at highest measles vaccination rate in US history.  Our rate is so high CDC raised their target because no chance of falling below previous goal. So why the panic now rather than ten years ago? 

Nationwide, perhaps.  But that's no comfort for the working mom with a 6 month old in daycare somewhere near Vancouver, WA.


And why measles?  Why not tackle something like tetanus which would have a possible benefit?

Tetanus isn't contagious.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on February 16, 2019, 04:07:01 PM
Nationwide, perhaps.  But that's no comfort for the working mom with a 6 month old in daycare somewhere near Vancouver, WA.

Tetanus isn't contagious.

Have there been babies dying from measles in Vacouver WA lately?  According to Washington state records there have been no reported babies with measles in 2019.

The reason for tetanus is vaccination rate is in low 60s vs 95% like measles.  There are dozens of deaths per year from tetanus.  Moving measles from 95% to 96% will do nothing but moving tetanus from 65% to 90% would at least have an impact.  In fact, no exemption mandatory measles vaccinations will hurt people.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: FreeLancer on February 16, 2019, 05:11:38 PM
Have there been babies dying from measles in Vacouver WA lately?  According to Washington state records there have been no reported babies with measles in 2019.

Measles mortality in the US is 1 to 2 deaths per 1000 infections, more likely in those <5 and >20 years old.  With currently reported infection rates in SW Washington in the low hundreds, the lack of a reported death is not unusual, however, about 1 of 4 measles infections require hospitalization and unnecessarily burdens the healthcare system and places immunocompromised patients already hospitalized at risk.  The difficulties involved with preventing the airborne spread of the measles virus in a hospital setting is on a par with smallpox.


The reason for tetanus is vaccination rate is in low 60s vs 95% like measles.  There are dozens of deaths per year from tetanus.  Moving measles from 95% to 96% will do nothing but moving tetanus from 65% to 90% would at least have an impact.  In fact, no exemption mandatory measles vaccinations will hurt people.

Contagious diseases are always going to get more public health attention because the consequences multiply geometrically.  With their safety margins, there's no reason to not encourage increased rates of vaccination for both.  Tetanus has the disadvantage of requiring periodic boosting, so you tend to lose the adults who don't interface with schools or healthcare systems, but the risk dies with them.

In aggregate, moving nationwide immunity to 96% may not make much difference, but moving the ever widening antivax patches out here on the left coast closer to 95% certainly will.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on February 16, 2019, 06:12:58 PM
Measles mortality in the US is 1 to 2 deaths per 1000 infections, more likely in those <5 and >20 years old.  With currently reported infection rates in SW Washington in the low hundreds, the lack of a reported death is not unusual, however, about 1 of 4 measles infections require hospitalization and unnecessarily burdens the healthcare system and places immunocompromised patients already hospitalized at risk.  The difficulties involved with preventing the airborne spread of the measles virus in a hospital setting is on a par with smallpox.

You are mixing apples-and-oranges with infections and CDC reported cases. The 1 in 1,000 figure is from CDC cases from before 1963.  It was based on approximately 500,000 CDC reported severe cases each year where about an average of 450 died. The actual number of infections during this time were about 5 million each year so that number has to be reduced by at least a factor of 10. Also with improvements in nutrition and health technology over last 50 years, current estimates are better than 1 in 30,000.  It could be much lower still.  We simply dont know because there are not enough deaths to do the calculations!

But regardless, your estimates proved the point.  There is nothing to panic over.  There is no way for this to become an epidemic.  David pointed out groups at risk above but even in those communities there is no alarm.  I live near one of the largest Amish communities and they have had zero issues in 50 years!  And with everyone else immunized the risk to anyone else is super miniscule.  It is hard to see where totalitarian solutions are even remotely justified. 

In short, a person in US has far greater chance of dying from a lightening strike or scorpian sting than dying from measles.  Your hypothetical mother and baby are far more likely to die from an auto crash with a vaccinated person than die from measles from an unvaccinated one.  Even ultra-liberal Slate magazine has published on this point.


(https://compote.slate.com/images/00491700-c572-4863-b099-5457db6d503c.jpeg?width=780&height=520&rect=1560x1040&offset=0x0)

https://slate.com/technology/2019/02/measles-outbreak-clark-county-overblown.html (https://slate.com/technology/2019/02/measles-outbreak-clark-county-overblown.html)
SCIENCE
Stop Talking About Measles
News reporting on the measles outbreak has a spotty record.


Over the past few weeks, news of this outbreak has been picked up by the media outside the Pacific Northwest and characterized as a matter of grave, national importance. Stories on the “measles crisis” now suggest that it’s a sign of how the anti-vaccine movement has “metastasized” into something “so much larger and so much bigger” than it’s ever been before; that fake news about vaccines has grown more potent and persuasive on social media; and that, as a result of all this meme-contagion, an infectious disease that was once declared “completely eliminated” in the U.S. is in the midst of a deadly, disheartening comeback that’s “spreading fast.”

These claims are all misleading. The anti-vaxxer movement isn’t really on the rise all across America, and measles hasn’t really re-emerged from clinical oblivion or become a fatal threat to everyone’s well-being.
...
The number of Americans who die from measles every year, in this era of resurgence, matches up to the annual number of Americans who get killed by scorpions.
...
In the meantime, let’s be wary of the claim that we’ve been taken by extremists to the brink of a catastrophe. For now, the outbreak of disease in Clark County isn’t likely to spread that far beyond the troubled community in which it started. Misleading viral outrage, on the other hand, appears to have no end to its transmission



Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: David in MN on February 17, 2019, 06:30:16 AM
It's the age old debate between salacious news and those who can do math. That was my initial balk at the article. Lumping 30% unvaccinated with 5% is just poor data analysis. When combined with a scale that I think bends the truth a little I see an analysis that is heavily biased. But I have years doing data analysis, stock trade, and have taken classes like Tufte's on data. This stuff sticks out to me like a sore thumb.

The choice to vaccinate is nothing but a statistical decision. Suppose I could show that the drive to the doctor represents more risk than the disease being immunized for. Statistically the correct choice is to stay home. The only question is accurately balancing risk.

When I do vaccine analysis for my daughter (she is vaccinated per the schedule) I have a different risk model. Cities with risk would be like Minneapolis, NYC, or San Francisco. Cities where I know have communities at risk. Or if I had a job that put me in front of travelers. If work demands travel it's probably a safer bet to get vaccinated.

I do not understand the great measles scare. All the data I see leads me to believe it has been largely either contained in communities or spread in high-travel areas (we must note that when it spreads in an amusement park we have very little data on the effected parties). We have the highest vaccine rates in history. We are the most attentive in history with regard to keeping sick kids home. It's such a mundane thing that the CDC reports every case and they're still small.

I feel compelled to say I feel horrible for kids who fall ill. It's a bad disease. But if we're being honest pools, cars, bathtubs, and stairs are all much higher risk.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: David in MN on February 17, 2019, 09:24:01 AM
Following up on actual data... 9 countries make MMR mandatory... Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech, France, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Poland, and Slovakia.

We have a global measles immunization rate that is a staggering 85% according to the WHO. Africa is the laggard in measles immunization and they still clock in at 73%. Europe is the in the lead with 94%.

It's so under control that the CDC admits the #1 way Americans get measles is international travel. For the most part in North America and Europe we beat it.

Now let's apply this actual data to the NME "heat map". It's data is so nebulous it's top category (5-30%) would cover Europe and Africa. In other words this data is so poorly presented it can't distinguish between the most and least immunized parts of the world.

For all the fear mongering about this bogeyman I can't find the data to support it. If anything we should be bragging about the success. We're getting near 3/4 immunization rates in some of the poorest parts of the world and hopefully that trend continues. Maybe I'm missing something but the numbers bear out a very positive story.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Mr. Bill on February 17, 2019, 01:16:19 PM
Links to what the CDC says:
https://www.cdc.gov/measles/parent-infographic.html
https://www.cdc.gov/measles/about/complications.html

Relevant quotes:

Quote
About 1 out of 4 people who get measles will be hospitalized.

Ear infections occur in about one out of every 10 children with measles and can result in permanent hearing loss.

As many as one out of every 20 children with measles gets pneumonia, the most common cause of death from measles in young children.

About one child out of every 1,000 who get measles will develop encephalitis (swelling of the brain) that can lead to convulsions and can leave the child deaf or with intellectual disability.

For every 1,000 children who get measles, one or two will die from it.

Believe that or not, as you prefer.

Chance of serious complication is somewhere around 1 in 30,000.

That number is so wildly in disagreement with the CDC that I can't take it seriously.  One in four hospitalized, one in twenty with pneumonia.  Those are "serious complications".
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: FreeLancer on February 17, 2019, 01:47:46 PM
You are mixing apples-and-oranges with infections and CDC reported cases. The 1 in 1,000 figure is from CDC cases from before 1963.  It was based on approximately 500,000 CDC reported severe cases each year where about an average of 450 died. The actual number of infections during this time were about 5 million each year so that number has to be reduced by at least a factor of 10. Also with improvements in nutrition and health technology over last 50 years, current estimates are better than 1 in 30,000.  It could be much lower still.  We simply dont know because there are not enough deaths to do the calculations!

But consider the underreported pneumonia and encephalitis deaths from undiagnosed measles infection, too.

Recent outbreaks in the EU over the last decade continue to support the CDC mortality estimates. This is not a benign childhood infection.

By any definition, going from an endemic rate of zero to a hundred cases is an epidemic for that region and raises concerns about what’s going on in that population. In SW WA, what’s going on is there are schools where 25% of the students aren’t vaccinated, that’s nowhere close to providing herd immunity against measles.

It’s not a pandemic or a cause for panic. But it shows the consequences of dropping below the herd immunity threshold when sufficient numbers opt out of vaccination. And expressing the need for improvement doesn’t deserve the knee jerk label of totalitarianism. These are age old issues we’ve grappled with in public health and they’re not getting any easier.

I’m waiting for the first civil suit for negligence against a parent whose unvaccinated child leads to the death or disability of another. With genotyping and outbreak investigation techniques, it wouldn’t be difficult to connect the dots.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: David in MN on February 17, 2019, 02:32:11 PM
Well I guess we could use some obscure "herd immunity metric".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

Or rather than relying on Rsubnaught dot S = 1 (of which all those metrics are simply made up) we could rely on real world data. There's also a very strange lack of confidence interval in the "herd immunity" crowd. There's a statistical error in assuming that a possibly afflicted group is all the same. 100 susceptible kids in New York City and 100 in upstate North Dakota aren't the same.

Dot multiplication assumes a linear response and this is far from a linear result. You can't just dot two numbers; it ignores vector math and confidence. This is so oversimplified math that has no grounding in reality. And our real world results don't show that immunization is a driver of preventing disease. Travel is the key driver with measles.

The worst immunization stats in the US are in line with the average in China. And I'd go there without a second thought. My wife spent a month there.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: FreeLancer on February 17, 2019, 03:40:41 PM
And our real world results don't show that immunization is a driver of preventing disease. Travel is the key driver with measles.

Obviously travel is the only way measles can enter a population with no endemic disease.  But once here it spreads among those with no immunity, which 99% of the time turn out to be unvaccinated individuals living in an undervaccinated subpopulation, ie, insufficient herd immunity.  That's what's being observed in WA schools right now, along with Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn, a couple of travelers ignite outbreaks that spread to dozens more.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: David in MN on February 17, 2019, 04:35:50 PM
Obviously travel is the only way measles can enter a population with no endemic disease.  But once here it spreads among those with no immunity, which 99% of the time turn out to be unvaccinated individuals living in an undervaccinated subpopulation, ie, insufficient herd immunity.  That's what's being observed in WA schools right now, along with Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn, a couple of travelers ignite outbreaks that spread to dozens more.

I 100% agree. I worry about disease vectors as a risk analysis. We are fully immunized and it's largely because I tend to travel to the non-immunized parts of the city and my wife travels to non-immunized parts of the world. I'm going to the best seafood importer and best Asian supply store and my wife goes to China.

We vaccinate because we know we have some risk exposure. But in the broader sense there isn't evidence that it's doing damage to those of us immunized. I'm taking the very proven mathematical position that being in a large unvaccinated population or being unvaccinated while being exposed to a lot of travel are poor decisions. But the "crazy Christian farm kid in Montana"... The math doesn't bear that out.

It's a hard data set. Yes, the most terrifying is a large insular group not immunized. Those of us exposed (like me) should be very careful.

I am sympathetic that the medical community is asked to bear a larger burden of the risk. Any outbreak falls in their lap. I could make an argument that anything that puts them at risk is a systemic threat.

There's a lot of nuance here. I've had a family member live through the "how many gloves did the AIDS vial break" situation. And I get the fear that 50 kids show up at a hospital with a contagious disease.

This could well be a macro solution with a micro problem.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on February 17, 2019, 08:31:07 PM
Yes, it is primarily immigration and travel which is the seed for an outbreak.  All but one US outbreak (defined as 3+ cases) in the last 20 years was caused accordingly.

But again, this is a miniscule risk.  The most common cited 1 in 1,000 number is a pre-vaccine/ pre-modern medicine rate of death among the 10% of reported acute cases.  The actual rate among infections from this time is approximately 1 in 10,000.  This same ratio is seen in European data.  The CDC can't produce a current estimate because for the last 15 years there have been no confirmed deaths from the reported diagnosed measles cases (approximately 2,700).  There was only one confirmed measles related death which was an undiagnosed case from an autopsy.

The best study to date in a modern medicine country is from France in 2008 to 2011 when they had a large immigration driven outbreak.  They experienced a outbreak estimated at 44K infections of which about 22K were severe enough to be tracked.  Among this group there were only 10 deaths.  Which comes to a raw rate of 2.3 deaths per 10,000 infections.

(https://2020science.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Measles-mortality-rates-france-Table-2.png)

However, 7 of the 10 reported deaths were were among immune system compromised individuals (congenital, Hodgkin’s lymphoma, Crohn’s disease, HIV, immunosuppressive treatment).  Medical processes are now in place to avoid these deaths, so the expected rate is about 1 death in 15,000 infections.   

Now it gets controversial.  Should deaths among the immigrants who bring the disease be counted in these figures?  Governments have avoided presenting this data as for the obvious political ramifications.  Personally, I don't think we want to shut down all international travel and immigration for such a risk.  Which if someone ever brought a lawsuit this would be the obvious direction the discussion would take.

Either way, whether it is looked at as 1 in 1,000-2,500+ reported acute cases or 1 in 10,000-30,000+ infections doesn't really matter.  The risk is super low.  As the CDC continues to communicate it is best to take the distorted media reports with a grain of salt, understand the risks posed in other parts of the world, and voluntarily choose to vaccinate if concerned.

(https://vaxopedia.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/measles-outbreaks-cdc.jpg)
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: FreeLancer on February 17, 2019, 09:34:59 PM
Medical processes are now in place to avoid these deaths.......

Not really. 

In fact, with the rapidly increasing use of biologics for the treatment of rheumatologic, dermatologic, and neuro-degenerative conditions the number of those considered to be immunocompromised within the population will rise.  These are the people who depend on adequate herd immunity.


Your French mortality rates are not consistent with what the EU and WHO are reporting, which are in line with the CDC.  No offense, but I'll stick with their more conservative estimates.

Regardless, the morbidity associated with measles infection is still pretty horrendous.  Why subject a child to the trauma of a preventable PICU admission if you don't have to? 
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on February 17, 2019, 10:41:54 PM
Your French mortality rates are not consistent with what the EU and WHO are reporting, which are in line with the CDC.  No offense, but I'll stick with their more conservative estimates.

Those are the Numbers from France for that time period.  2018 was similar with deaths (tentatively listed as three) being immune system compromised. 

WHO numbers are as high as 1 death in 60 infections for covered countries in 2018. Measles and malnutrition dont mix.  Venezuela is particularly bad.  But deaths have dropped from 500k to 100k a year which is great progress..
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: AvenueQ on February 18, 2019, 09:31:10 AM
In fact, with the rapidly increasing use of biologics for the treatment of rheumatologic, dermatologic, and neuro-degenerative conditions the number of those considered to be immunocompromised within the population will rise.  These are the people who depend on adequate herd immunity.

Regardless, the morbidity associated with measles infection is still pretty horrendous.  Why subject a child to the trauma of a preventable PICU admission if you don't have to?

These two reasons are exactly why we're doing the full schedule for our son. Hell, my husband was one of those immunocompromised children who depended on that herd immunity when he was a baby.

It's not even so much hard anti-vax stuff that I hear anymore, it's more "well, I'm just concerned about side effects, I want a delayed schedule." I've quit going to some mom/baby groups because of this "vaccine anxiety". Nope, not risking my kid's health for some mommy "bonding" time.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: David in MN on February 18, 2019, 11:17:35 AM
OK... If we want to eliminate measles the #1 policy would be banning international travel. We just don't want to live in that world. Croatian Dubrovnik avoided the bubonic plague by enacting a strict quarantine and African villages going back thousands of years would block the road to stop travel and the spread of disease. Not exactly a new idea. But it's not fun if I can't go back to France. I like visiting France. Try an almond croissant. You'll be hooked.

We'd also rightfully recoil in horror at the thought of genetically testing and eliminating the most susceptible people.

So the two most effective methods of eliminating this disease are things we find morally abhorrent. We're already accepting risks with regard to disease vectors that we would not choose to eliminate. Travel is fun and executing "undesirables" is a dark path with bad historical implications. So we accept a certain risk level.

I'm also comfortable with the Talebian argument that magnitude offsets probability. A small chance that my daughter could die in a horrible fashion from measles presents a realistic concern. That should play a role in the calculation. And while I respect religious beliefs the MMR vaccine (in my math) is worth my weight in gold. I only regret we didn't get it sooner.

I can't not bring this up. Statistically one of the worst vectors of disease is war. We should end war YESTERDAY. Plague and disease have followed war throughout history (WWI being one of the worst examples) and if we want an end to disease END WAR.

I do worry. I worry that the kid down the street without immunization is a "bad person" responsible for trying to spread contagion. I worry because he's become an "undesirable" and I don't like where that ends up. I'm also scared that a large unvaccinated community could shut down medical services. And as a math person I can conclusively say there is no reason not to get the MMR. But I'd draw a line at putting a gun to someone's head.

Just bear in mind that the "you are putting me at risk" line logically ends in closed borders and the search for genetic defects. Just look up the 20th century. Pretty much all we did.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on February 18, 2019, 03:33:48 PM
CDC efforts are heavily concentrated on US residents who travel overseas and return infected.  That is how biggest outbreaks occur.  For example, Philipines relief efforts have been major cause of outbreaks in US.  Travel to middle east is another.

I am still curious about why the panic over measles vs much larger, easier to mitigate risks.  For example, peanut allergies result in at least 10x more deaths in US as measles.  But the press is filled with articles tampering down fears.  Why dont they push for peanut bans instead? 

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/glenn-d-braunstein-md/peanut-allergies_b_2885819.html (https://www.huffingtonpost.com/glenn-d-braunstein-md/peanut-allergies_b_2885819.html)
Getting Past the Hype About Peanut Allergies

And why is a person's proclivity for peanut butter and jelly sandwhiches, youth football, etc given so much more respect than deeply held religious convictions? Isnt that upside down?  Interestingly, the states driving the measles panic (Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Massachusetts) tend to have relatively low church attendance.  So maybe there is no empathy for religious beliefs there?

(https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/zonvslpedusjhk_03s9f8g.png)

Or said more broadly, what determines what risks a person is willing to consider as critical?  It definitely is an interesting thing for preppers to ponder.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: mountainmoma on February 18, 2019, 04:08:09 PM
Quote
Jack Spirko
19 mins ·

And people are using this to say basically a home school mom in Texas who didn't vaccinate her kids is to blame.

BTW the highest cause of premature death in Madagascar is diarrhea and the second leading cause is a lower respiratory infection and Protein-energy malnutrition is the third.

So bronchitis and the shits and a lack of hamburgers kill a few thousand in this third world hell hole annually. So exactly how is this a surprise or in anyway relevant to what people in the US should or should not do.

Source of the data - http://www.healthdata.org/…/ihme_gbd_country_report_madagas…

Go ahead and bitch about my stupid facts and logic again.

Facebook, today

Wish he would come and cmment on this thread....
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: mountainmoma on February 18, 2019, 04:39:27 PM
This explains it much better than any argument I could make .... https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=255&v=47RUl5xqs_s
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: surfivor on February 20, 2019, 01:59:55 PM

 No need to be a libertarian when the CDC, FDA and other state agencies are out there to protect you

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/state-issues/430736-fda-chief-says-feds-might-intervene-if-states-continue-to

FDA chief says feds might intervene if states continue allowing vaccine exemptions

The head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is warning that states might “force the hand of the federal health agencies” if they continue to allow vaccine exemptions amid an ongoing measles outbreak.

FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CNN on Tuesday that the federal government might intervene if “certain states continue down the path that they're on.”
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on February 20, 2019, 06:29:08 PM
No need to be a libertarian when the CDC, FDA and other state agencies are out there to protect you

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/state-issues/430736-fda-chief-says-feds-might-intervene-if-states-continue-to

FDA chief says feds might intervene if states continue allowing vaccine exemptions

The head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is warning that states might “force the hand of the federal health agencies” if they continue to allow vaccine exemptions amid an ongoing measles outbreak.

FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CNN on Tuesday that the federal government might intervene if “certain states continue down the path that they're on.”

Ah, now we know what this is probably all about.  Scott Gottlieb is a venture partner with New Enterprise Associates, the notorius health venture capital firm.  He will probably make millions if they can push this through.  Good luck, as federal government has no authority in the matter and the Midwest states will never agree to this.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: FreeLancer on February 20, 2019, 06:55:39 PM
Trump wouldn't let his appointees go down a totalitarian path, or profit from their government positions.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on February 20, 2019, 07:47:29 PM
Trump wouldn't let his appointees go down a totalitarian path, or profit from their government positions.

Dont worry, he will end up like Rod Rosenstein. The drain on the swamp is unfortunately slow.  It takes a while.

For those who dont know, NEA has a large interest in Buzzfeed.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on March 02, 2019, 11:09:25 AM
Wish he would come and cmment on this thread....

He covered it in great detail in episodes 1511, 1514, and 1520.  This was during the 2015 measlesgeddon.  He called that one 'the latest batch of “sopa de mierda de toro”'.

Good news.  According to Google trends the 2018/2019 measlespocalypse has ended.  It is out of the media cycle now.  It followed the same pattern as 2015 to a tee.

(http://www.libertyassociate.com/survival_podcast/measlestrend.png)



Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: iam4liberty on March 05, 2019, 02:08:32 PM
Ah, now we know what this is probably all about.  Scott Gottlieb is a venture partner with New Enterprise Associates, the notorius health venture capital firm.  He will probably make millions if they can push this through.  Good luck, as federal government has no authority in the matter and the Midwest states will never agree to this.

Trump wouldn't let his appointees go down a totalitarian path, or profit from their government positions.

Dont worry, he will end up like Rod Rosenstein. The drain on the swamp is unfortunately slow.  It takes a while.

For those who dont know, NEA has a large interest in Buzzfeed.

Trump just announced Scott Gottlieb is out at the FDA come the end of next month.  This came right after Dr. Rand Paul's compelling testimony on Gottlieb's mandatory forced vaccination plan.  "I'm not here to say don't vaccinate your kids. If this hearing is for persuasion I'm all for the persuasion. I've vaccinated myself and I've vaccinated my kids. For myself and my children I believe that the benefits of vaccines greatly outweigh the risks, but I still don't favor giving up on liberty for a false sense of security."
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: FreeLancer on March 05, 2019, 08:44:56 PM
I don't know, if anything, it sounds like Gottlieb pissed off Big Tobacco, which apparently trumps his Big Pharma connections.

Glad to hear Rand still believes in vaccination, though.  You never know with that guy....
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: FreeLancer on March 05, 2019, 08:55:03 PM
Kids these days.....

Teen tells Senate why he defied his mom to get vaccinated (https://www.apnews.com/3e8f6df82ebf40b3a4884f7a8d0da463)

Quote
Ethan Lindenberger of Norwalk, Ohio, said his mother’s “love, affection and care is apparent,” but that she was steeped in online conspiracies that make him and his siblings vulnerable to vaccine-preventable diseases like the ongoing measles outbreaks.

“I grew up under my mother’s beliefs that vaccines are dangerous,” Lindenberger told a Senate health committee. He’d show her scientific studies but said she instead turned to illegitimate sources that “instill fear into the public.

Last December, despite his mother’s disapproval and realizing that “my school viewed me as a health threat,” Lindenberger began catching up on his missed immunizations. He told lawmakers it’s important “to inform people about how to find good information” and to remind them how dangerous these diseases really are.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: David in MN on March 07, 2019, 12:12:56 PM
Kids these days.....

Teen tells Senate why he defied his mom to get vaccinated (https://www.apnews.com/3e8f6df82ebf40b3a4884f7a8d0da463)

It's an interesting story. And it highlights how sticky the subject can be. I'll be frank and say he turned 18 and made better choices than his mom. But I'm also nervous in that I doubt either used any kind of statistical modeling or analysis to make these decisions. And there is that little thing that it was the government who gave her 12 years of education and she still can't do math.

Also a little odd whenever kids testify before the government. He's no expert. Not a doctor, statistician, genomics expert, or anything that would qualify him to have an opinion that would be beneficial to anyone with rational thought. I've been in a 4 car pileup but Ford and Chevy don't ask me to help design safety features.

The sad thing is that it highlights the failure of the medical and scientific communities. [And REALLY the education system.] A parent who is capable of math would never refuse the MMR. There are risks, like with anything we do, but the MMR is such a low risk to offset a bad risk it's a no-brainer. Buta few rare interactions and some shady business/government stuff (like HPV in Texas) and it becomes understandable that some will be led by the story rather than the math. Can everyone be a spergy nerd like me? I would hope that when it comes to the health of a child all parents consult a doctor and then spend time researching the actual numbers provided in JAMA or Lancett but I suspect I'm one of the few...

Health is definitely a place where "trust the system" has failed. Whether it's diet, exercise, or really anything it's been turned over and refuted. When I was a kid we were being told to eat margarine on Wonderbread and run a lot. Now I eat eggs, fast (that was a newbie), and lift heavy weights. Medicine chased out Semmelweis for suggesting hand washing was a good idea. Those of us who have worked in the health world have a spotty resume. We're the people who brought you the food pyramid, Vioxx, and claimed Theranos would lead us to the future.

I don't know how to regain trust. Especially when those of us in health and wellness will admit we're probably wrong about some things. If I'm honest I don't like the way the FDA works with big companies in food or drugs. And while (I suspect) the people on this forum would happily read a health optimizing book by Nassim Taleb or Freakonomics it's not going to catch on.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Smurf Hunter on March 07, 2019, 12:49:58 PM
It's an interesting story. And it highlights how sticky the subject can be. I'll be frank and say he turned 18 and made better choices than his mom. But I'm also nervous in that I doubt either used any kind of statistical modeling or analysis to make these decisions. And there is that little thing that it was the government who gave her 12 years of education and she still can't do math.

Also a little odd whenever kids testify before the government. He's no expert. Not a doctor, statistician, genomics expert, or anything that would qualify him to have an opinion that would be beneficial to anyone with rational thought. I've been in a 4 car pileup but Ford and Chevy don't ask me to help design safety features.


I'm going to be slightly contrarian, just for the sake of it...

As humans we should have the ability to make snap decisions, and wouldn't survive traumatic situations in many cases if we waited for all the data.
I imagine primitive humans learned quickly not to hastily enter dark caves due to risk of predators.  The risk/reward is obvious, and it's not worth much thought.

However applying the same instincts in our complex modern society with institutions, and corporations each with their own agendas doesn't work the same.
The lazy conclusion is to trust no one, but then you miss out on all the good stuff (e.g. the Amish).

Point is, we aren't created or evolved to evaluate a dozen lunch options, let alone as many insurance plans, or financial investments. 
If you aren't starving, eat the food you anecdotally believe is not poisonous.  If you are starving, and have only one choice, roll the dice as you have nothing to lose.

Civilization, and the societal order that comes with it, has enabled us to pause and do fabulous things.  Arts, sciences, and all manner of innovations.  If you are busy foraging, you will never make time to compose a symphony.  But most of us aren't spending our energy just surviving today.

It's easy to listen to Freakonomics and feel smug, but also remember that our standard of living, peace and stability are a fairly new thing in human history.

I think the medical and scientific communities would further they respective causes with some additional empathy of "regular people".

As a software engineer, I know from experience most customers don't care how it works, or the cool algorithm we came up with.  It "just needs to work".  It's really a rare and special person who can appreciate the internal engineering and design of things.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: surfivor on March 07, 2019, 07:46:24 PM
 I have heard vaccines are not really tested adequately for safety or the tests are not done the right way or are the tests are done by those same companies selling the vaccines and are not independent.

 There is also a sort of secret national vaccine injury program that has paid out something like 4 billion for people harmed by vaccines.

 There are also millions (I guess it's millions but whatever the number) of parents who are convinced their children where harmed by vaccines based on the claim that the kid was fine before the vaccination and then they where not. You can hear such claims from various people played on podcasts etc. These people are quite adamant

 I don't see a case for forced vaccinations, that to me seems a bit scary and I am glad Rand Paul is against it

Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: David in MN on March 08, 2019, 07:36:06 AM
Smurf- there is actually a book about this called Thinking, Fast and Slow. Basically your brain has been built to jump from the lion, not tax optimize your IRA.

So Kahneman (I think) advocates slowing the response. The more time and thought you can dedicate to analyzing a problem the better you do. And one really needs to be careful consuming information because the vast majority of news sources are attempting to make us think fast. I hate to bash my people but statisticians are among the worst. I would not trust any chart or graph I see without at least checking the source data.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Mr. Bill on May 21, 2019, 04:43:56 PM
Can measles make you healthier and fight cancer? (https://www.metabunk.org/can-measles-make-you-healthier-and-fight-cancer.t10464/)

Quote
...But what if you survive measles complication free? Is your immune system stronger? The answer turns out to be the exact opposite. In every country, measles vaccines are associated with decrease risk of death from all disease... A team of scientists from four different institutions investigated this correlation and found that being infected with measles actually creates a sort of "immune amnesia" where the patient is more likely to be infected and die of other infectious disease over the next 2 to 3 years. ...

Here's a good article with more info on the "immune amnesia" effect and its consequences:

Science News, 5/21/19: Measles erases the immune system’s memory (https://www.sciencenews.org/article/measles-immune-system-memory-infection)

Quote
...Once inside, the virus is thought to target immune cells found in the mucus of the nose and throat, the tiny air sacs in the lungs or between the eyelids and cornea. ...

The virus quickly replicates inside the cells, then spreads to places packed with other immune cells — bone marrow, thymus, spleen, tonsils and lymph nodes. “The virus has an enormously strong predilection to infect cells of the immune system,” says Bert Rima, an infectious disease researcher at Queen’s University Belfast in Northern Ireland. .... Eventually, newly made viral particles move into the respiratory tract, where they can be coughed out to sicken more people. ...

“The virus preferentially infects cells in the immune system that carry the memory of previously experienced infections,” [Dutch virologist] de Swart says. Called memory B and T cells, these cellular protectors normally remember threats the body has already neutralized, allowing the immune system to spring into action quickly if those threats return. After a measles infection, the numbers of some types of these memory cells dropped, creating an immune amnesia...

The immune system might take months, or even years, to bounce back from this memory loss. Researchers including de Swart and Mina compared health records of U.K. children from 1990 to 2014. For up to five years after their bout of measles, children who had previously had the virus experienced more diagnosed infections than children who hadn’t. Children who'd had measles were 15 to 24 percent more likely to receive a prescription for an infection than children who never had measles...

Mina and colleagues found similar results for deaths from nonmeasles infections in children in England, Wales, the United States and Denmark, before and after the introduction of the measles vaccine. When measles was rampant, children were more likely to die from other infections. ...
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: FreeLancer on May 21, 2019, 05:10:14 PM


Here's a good article with more info on the "immune amnesia" effect and its consequences:

Science News, 5/21/19: Measles erases the immune system’s memory (https://www.sciencenews.org/article/measles-immune-system-memory-infection)

This is a fascinating aspect of the disease that hasn't been well understood until now.
Title: Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
Post by: Morning Sunshine on May 21, 2019, 05:30:04 PM
This is a fascinating aspect of the disease that hasn't been well understood until know.

that is very interesting.