Author Topic: "The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market"  (Read 986 times)

Offline cohutt

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"The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market"
« on: December 24, 2010, 05:32:47 AM »
Housing analysis from Dallas Fed

One interesting point- home ownership had remained stable at roughly 64% of households for over 30 years.  The effort to increase home ownership via freddie et al that started in the mid 90s pushed this up by just another 5%, which was enough to inflate home prices substantially over long term valuation trends.

This incremental increase was enough to blow up the system. 

(Yay government. )


The short point of the article- home prices continue downward trend that was only delayed by the interventions attempted so far.


http://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2010/el1014.html

The possibility of "reversion to the mean" is something to always respect regardless of the application;  the settings change but people acting as a group never change. 

Offline RationalHusker

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Re: "The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market"
« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2010, 07:00:36 PM »
Puke!  I've been saying that there are serious declines in residential real estate still in front of us for about a year now.  My problem is we're not ready to move, yet.  I mean, we could try to sell and then rent for a few years, but we bought in early 2008, and I have committments that will keep us in the general area we are now for another 3-4 years.  Getting out now could save us some equity losses, but you have to live somewhere, and there are problems/drawbacks to renting, too.  Not to mention moving is has expenses associated with it, too, and I'd rather do it once (in 4 years) than twice (now and again in 4 years).  Should have pulled the trigger in early spring...I'd probably be less stressed, and we'd have absolutely zero debt.