Author Topic: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]  (Read 10933 times)

Offline Nicodemus

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Solar Blast Heading Our Way

"M-class flares are capable of causing brief radio blackouts near the poles as well as minor radiation storms, but it's unlikely that this one will disrupt communication or power transmission networks."

It's probably nothing to worry about, just a heads up.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2012, 04:19:36 PM by Mr. Bill »

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: CME Hits This Weekend
« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2012, 09:32:35 AM »
Some links:

NWS Space Weather Prdiction Center

SpaceWeather.com

Very cool animation showing the forecast blast as it passes through the solar system.

Offline Roundabouts

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Re: CME Hits This Weekend
« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2012, 12:32:03 PM »
Thanks for the heads up.  Have a question.  Solar storms hits big. (Not so big that it takes the whole grid down) So it can mess with our electrical stuff.  So if you unplug like say TV computer and so on Dose that help keep it safe?  Or are those things only affected if they are on and running.   yeah I get that a bad storm can take down the grid that = no power.  But just wondering about individual devices including cars.  I am getting conflicting answers to that.

Offline Cedar

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Re: CME Hits This Weekend
« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2012, 12:47:08 PM »
It is not a bad idea to unplug. I have seen power surges when the power just comes back on and my e family had three VCR and a microwave blow up.

I am mad I have rain and won't be able to see any northern lights.. I miss them so.

Cedar

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: CME Hits This Weekend
« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2012, 05:31:39 PM »
Quote
2012-01-20 16:35   G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Possible January 23

SWPC Forecasters have determined that the CME from NOAA Region 1402 near disk center yesterday will likely pass above (north) of Earth. This glancing blow will cause just G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity. Look for the first signs of it around 1800Z (1:00 pm EST) on Sunday, January 22, with the bulk of the disturbance to occur Monday, January 23. Watch here for updates.

Offline clickdead

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Large CME (solar flare)
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2012, 01:55:07 PM »
Spaceweather.com announced large almost X class flare. ETA Jan 24th.
http://spaceweather.com/
 

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Re: Large CME (solar flare)
« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2012, 03:37:55 PM »
ETA 9am EST tomorrow: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
G2 strength likely, G3 possible, i.e., moderate to strong.  Not much to get concerned about, but here's a link on what the G-scale means: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

Offline cmxterra

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2012, 06:06:35 PM »
Hoping we get enough clear sky to see/ photograph some aurora

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2012, 06:53:43 PM »
Hoping we get enough clear sky to see/ photograph some aurora
If you get some good photos, please post!

Offline Cedar

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #10 on: January 24, 2012, 12:48:07 AM »
It has been upgraded --

ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME (UPDATED): This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind.

X-class flares are big; they are major events that can trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #11 on: January 27, 2012, 01:39:36 PM »
An X2 has just been unleashed from the sun but I think it is not heading our way

Cedar


Offline ttubravesrock

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Offline Cedar

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #13 on: January 27, 2012, 02:01:11 PM »
TY

Cedar

Offline cmxterra

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X5.4 flare and cme incoming
« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2012, 08:52:11 AM »
Looks like we are in for a direct hit sometime tomorrow .

Offline Shaunypoo

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Re: X5.4 flare and cme incoming
« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2012, 09:04:00 AM »
I like listening to this guy now and then.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-scvqaP35gc

Alot of what he is saying is over my head, but there is some amazing footage.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: X5.4 flare and cme incoming
« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2012, 09:04:53 AM »
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html

Quote
2012-03-07 15:18 UTC  Solar Radiation and Geomagnetic Storms Continue

The CME that erupted late on March 4 passed ACE around 0400 UTC March 7 (11:00 p.m. EST March 6). As a result, storming reaching the G2 (Moderate) level continues at this time.  Another CME, part of the recent R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event at 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE early morning UTC on March 8 (start of day EST March 8) . Geomagnetic storm periods reaching the G3 (Strong) level are likely from that CME.  Finally, a Solar Radiation Storm is also in progress and levels are currently above the S3 (Strong) threshold.  Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

Offline cmxterra

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Re: X5.4 flare and cme incoming
« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2012, 09:09:00 AM »
also check out solarham.com for up to the minute info.

Offline ag2

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2012, 01:17:38 PM »
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/story/2012-03-07/solar-storm-earth-power-disruptions/53398390/1?csp=34news


Has anyone found any comparison to the 1989 solar storm?  I know size, intensity, duration, position of earth (time of day), angle and probably a dozen other criteria well above my comprehension are variables which might make comparison difficult.  I'm just trying to get a sense of whether this might cause more or less disruption than the 1989 solar storm.  The nerd that lives inside me is curious.  I'm not panicky since they are saying that this is not super storm.

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #19 on: March 07, 2012, 01:44:43 PM »
What I want to know is what comparitive x-class size was the 1859 Carrington event. Does anyone know?
The 1989 event was in the neighborhood of an X-14. That number was derived from a narritive: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/12nov_haywire/
The article spoke of an X-28 flare occurring in 2003 and contrasted that event with the 1989 event which was "half as strong". We were lucky apparenty because the 2003 flare was not aimed at earth.

Offline cmxterra

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #20 on: March 07, 2012, 01:50:33 PM »
Well the X5.4 that happened yesterday is headed right for us

More info

http://solarham.com/

Offline radiomacgyver

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #21 on: March 07, 2012, 01:55:24 PM »
Here we go!!!!

Offline cmxterra

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2012, 01:57:49 PM »
I am planning on heading north of the city lights tomorrow night to see what I can photograph.

Offline Greywolf27

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #23 on: March 07, 2012, 02:04:40 PM »
I am planning on heading north of the city lights tomorrow night to see what I can photograph.

Can't wait to see those

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2012, 09:05:16 PM »
If you're in Maine or Minnesota or anywhere up thataway, and you've got a clear sky, might be worth taking a look to the north RIGHT NOW for an aurora.

Here's a nice up-to-the-minute image of where an aurora might be visible:
http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/images/Ovation_USA.png

Offline ttubravesrock

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #25 on: March 08, 2012, 09:09:15 PM »
If you're in Maine or Minnesota or anywhere up thataway, and you've got a clear sky, might be worth taking a look to the north RIGHT NOW for an aurora.

Here's a nice up-to-the-minute image of where an aurora might be visible:
http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/images/Ovation_USA.png

But its still light outside in Fairbanks...

Offline cmxterra

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #26 on: March 09, 2012, 09:07:08 AM »
Time lapse I shot of the Aurora last night.
Make sure you set it for 1080p (highest resolution) and blow it up to full screen.

This is from when I got to the site till when I left. You can see it started out slow but near the end got rather energetic.

I am still working on some of the individual frames.

For the geeks and photo nerds.
D300s
10.5mm 2.8
15sec exposure @ 2.8 ISO of 640
Shot every 17 seconds over the course of 4 hours. From about 9pm to 1 am.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_ocsz7co1A

Offline Shaunypoo

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #27 on: March 09, 2012, 09:11:23 AM »
+1 Thank you.

That really came alive there at the end.  The only way to improve that would be to add some kind of time stamp as it was going, but was excellent as is.

How often do you see aurora up the there?  How does it compare to what the video shows?

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #28 on: March 09, 2012, 09:12:18 AM »
wow cmx - that is great.  I was wondering if you had gotten anything.

Offline cmxterra

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Re: Current alerts for geomagnetic storms, solar flares/CME [merged topics]
« Reply #29 on: March 09, 2012, 09:16:18 AM »
I just threw that video together real fast. Not sure if Picasa will let me do any fancy editing like having a running clock.

With the longer exposures the camera was actually seeing a bit more than what you could see by just the naked eye. To the eye most of the first 30 seconds of that film were just sort of a green glow. However near the end when it really got going you could see the aurora move. It was very cool but would have been better had there not been a full freaking moon.

They happen from time to time up here. You just have to know when they are happening and get away from the city lights to be able to see them well.

With us getting so near solar max I can see other trips to my new favorite aurora spot in my future.