Author Topic: Fed Open Market Committee mtg, 9/21/16  (Read 2456 times)

Offline Alan Georges

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Fed Open Market Committee mtg, 9/21/16
« on: September 22, 2016, 07:21:52 PM »
Chris Martenson's podcast twigged me onto watching for this a couple of days ago:
https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/101694/michael-pento-coming-bond-bubble-collapse
Had to listen to it 3 times to let it all sink in.  The news is not dire, but... it's not great either.  The bottom line is that they either wouldn't raise rates and lose credibility, or that they would raise rates and send the financial markets into a panic.

Naturally, they chose the former.  Here's the official statement:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-21/u-s-federal-open-market-committee-sept-21-statement-text

Here's a somewhat conventional analysis of these goings-on:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feds-janet-yellen-has-missed-her-best-chance-to-raise-interest-rates-2016-09-22
And finally, the predicted effect on gold prices:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/federal-reserve-gives-gold-a-reason-to-rise-2016-09-21
Sure enough, up $20 since the announcement, possibly more to follow.

Now of course, there is zip-all that we can do about this directly.  But it is something to watch out for, an early warning of sorts, and I get the feeling that this hasn't finished reverberating through the financial markets.  Any thoughts?

Online David in MN

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Re: Fed Open Market Committee mtg, 9/21/16
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2016, 09:15:37 PM »
I suspect that Yellen's decisions (as I have written before) hinge more on getting Hillary elected than sound monetary policy. Market hiccups are bad for incumbants.

Offline FrugalFannie

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Re: Fed Open Market Committee mtg, 9/21/16
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2016, 10:45:33 AM »
the fact of the matter is there is no real indicator that the economy is improving. dig into the jobs and housing reports and you will see how sad they really are. look at all the economic numbers and then look at their revisions (negatively) and you will realize it is all smoke and mirrors. if the fed really believed what they have been saying for the last 18 months, that the economy is growing, we would have seen multiple rate hikes. listen to Peter Schiffs podcast. he rips their numbers apart and their statements. the markets know they are being lied to about the economy that's why at even a hint of a rate raise the markets tumble until someone from the board of the fed comes out to roll back what was said and reassure the markets that rates will not be raised

Offline DWSDVSE

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Re: Fed Open Market Committee mtg, 9/21/16
« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2016, 12:08:38 PM »
I guess the "data" that the Fed is depending on to make its calls is now Hillary's polling numbers?

No raise in September. There is no way in hell that they will raise next month so close to an election.

December?

If Trump wins, the markets are almost certainly going to pull a Brexit x 100 freak out....you're telling me that they're going to raise them in the middle of all that? Even if the markets settle down before December, I don't see that happening any more than I see Hillary willing to go into a Haunted House full of strobe lights and have it live broadcast this Halloween.

If Hillary wins, I don't think Yellen would raise it either. The data sucks, even if we get a bump because team #NeverSeenAWarToPassUp got their woman elected.

Guess what that means, we go into 2017 with little room for the Fed to do anything major when the house of cards comes tumbling down. Except go negitive, of course, or take even more crazy ideas and put them into action. Maybe unicorn farts will back our bonds?

I hate the theory that the Fed can fix economies, it's foolish. It's wrong. It's just a way to kick the can down the road. But, guess what, that's the system that we live under. That's the assumptions upon which everything runs day in and day out upon. If those assumptions don't hold....well  :popcorn:

osubuckeye4

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Re: Fed Open Market Committee mtg, 9/21/16
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2016, 02:04:16 PM »


Now of course, there is zip-all that we can do about this directly.  But it is something to watch out for, an early warning of sorts, and I get the feeling that this hasn't finished reverberating through the financial markets.  Any thoughts?


There is nothing to really "reverberate" at this time.


This is equivalent to a morbidly obese person who has ate nothing but cheeseburgers and fries for years, continuing to eat nothing but cheeseburgers and fries for another 3 months.

Are you concerned for that person? Of course, you are watching them kill themselves.

Is there any reason to really be any more concerned now than years ago when they started eating themselves to death? Not really.

All we're doing right now is patiently sitting around and waiting for the inevitable heart attack... and hoping that it doesn't kill them when it strikes.