Author Topic: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws  (Read 7528 times)

Offline Chemsoldier

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Jesus, Mary and Joseph...

http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2017/02/06/breaking-summary-leaked-atf-white-paper-analysis-nfa-free-suppressors-shouldered-braces-armor-piercing-ammo-oh/

Note that a white paper simply examines things that could be done rather than endorsing any courses of action or indicating that such actions are immanent or even in staffing. 

Mein gott.  If they did a third of this stuff...

Offline xxdabroxx

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2017, 09:48:45 AM »
Fingers crossed

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2017, 10:14:04 AM »
Other law enforcement agencies had made concessions.  Look at recreational marijuana.

I am confident there will be some strange unintended consequences with this.  Already suppressor sales have slowed, in anticipation of pending legislation to remove NFA status.
Assuming that legislation passes, thousands of people will rush out to "buy a can".  Currently the market is relatively small, so I'm sure there'll be a supply shortage for a while.

However, if it's no longer NFA, why not attempt to homebrew your own?  Even if it's half as effective, for lunch money you can make SOMETHING in your garage.  I'm sure that will cut into the commercial market as well.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2017, 10:25:46 AM »
I am confident there will be some strange unintended consequences with this.  Already suppressor sales have slowed, in anticipation of pending legislation to remove NFA status.
Assuming that legislation passes, thousands of people will rush out to "buy a can".  Currently the market is relatively small, so I'm sure there'll be a supply shortage for a while.

Ruger and Sig are already tooled up to produce them. Ruger has made it a policy to pretty much thread everything in anticipation. These and other companies are bankrolling the push as they see it as a potential product to sell to their existing client base.  Want some fries to go with that burger?

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2017, 11:01:38 AM »
Ruger and Sig are already tooled up to produce them. Ruger has made it a policy to pretty much thread everything in anticipation. These and other companies are bankrolling the push as they see it as a potential product to sell to their existing client base.  Want some fries to go with that burger?

Assuming that comes to pass, I still think the current boutique suppressor shops will be hurt.  Why pay $400 for a SilencerCo when Ruger sells one at walmart or cabelas for $59.99?

Offline Roknrandy

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2017, 06:08:25 PM »
Its actually a pro gun paper from the ATF Discussed here (15 minutes long) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6dO-6m3LJU

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2017, 06:28:04 PM »
 :popcorn:
Strange, this popcorn hardly made any sound at all in the microwave.

Offline Black November

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2017, 10:45:01 AM »
Fingers also crossed.

Offline trekker111

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #8 on: February 14, 2017, 06:36:30 AM »
Assuming that comes to pass, I still think the current boutique suppressor shops will be hurt.  Why pay $400 for a SilencerCo when Ruger sells one at walmart or cabelas for $59.99?

Hurt some, but I don't think it would be much. It would be like saying that boutique rifle makers like Barrett, desert tech, and chey-tac which sell $4000 and up (way up) rifles are hurt by Walmart selling a bottom shelf savage axis for $369. They are selling to 2 different levels of the market, and I don't think there will be alot of overlap.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2017, 12:19:22 PM »
Hurt some, but I don't think it would be much. It would be like saying that boutique rifle makers like Barrett, desert tech, and chey-tac which sell $4000 and up (way up) rifles are hurt by Walmart selling a bottom shelf savage axis for $369. They are selling to 2 different levels of the market, and I don't think there will be alot of overlap.

Okay, perhaps "the best" of any market would always be a niche.  In every hobby there's that dude that has to have "the best" of whatever is available.  Car parts, home audio, snow skis, guns...

Like buying the latest tech gadgets, you often pay double for something < 10% better.

If you could get a Cabela's brand suppressor for $39.99 that's within 3db of the $500 silencerCo, that would be a serious paradigm shift for that industry.

Offline NWPilgrim

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2017, 12:36:26 PM »
Okay, perhaps "the best" of any market would always be a niche.  In every hobby there's that dude that has to have "the best" of whatever is available.  Car parts, home audio, snow skis, guns...

Like buying the latest tech gadgets, you often pay double for something < 10% better.

If you could get a Cabela's brand suppressor for $39.99 that's within 3db of the $500 silencerCo, that would be a serious paradigm shift for that industry.

Totally agree.  If suppressors no longer required a tax stamp, you would have DIY kits/plans (pipe halves, washers, nut), low cost "disposables" (good for 1,000 rds but only $25), and then various durable models ($200-$700).  Right now if a suppressor wears out you have to buy another stamp for its replacement.  So there is strong incentive to buy very durable models right now.  But take away the stamp, and we would have a full range from one-use (soda bottle with insulation) to the "last-nearly-forever" models we have today.  Plus there would be many more manufacturers of suppressors, parts, kits, quick attachments, etc.

Also, currently a person may get just a couple of suppressors due to the high cost.  Maybe one for .22LR, another for pistol, and one or two for all his rifles.  But if many cheaper models and kits were available then a lot of us would be buying one for every firearm and replacing them every 5-10 years.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #11 on: February 14, 2017, 12:42:08 PM »
Totally agree.  If suppressors no longer required a tax stamp, you would have DIY kits/plans (pipe halves, washers, nut), low cost "disposables" (good for 1,000 rds but only $25), and then various durable models ($200-$700).  Right now if a suppressor wears out you have to buy another stamp for its replacement.  So there is strong incentive to buy very durable models right now.  But take away the stamp, and we would have a full range from one-use (soda bottle with insulation) to the "last-nearly-forever" models we have today.  Plus there would be many more manufacturers of suppressors, parts, kits, quick attachments, etc.

Also, currently a person may get just a couple of suppressors due to the high cost.  Maybe one for .22LR, another for pistol, and one or two for all his rifles.  But if many cheaper models and kits were available then a lot of us would be buying one for every firearm and replacing them every 5-10 years.

Just today on the firearm blog there was an article about a 3D printed .22lr suppressor.  It's only good for 500 rounds, but costs $2.00 in printer filament.  You can't dissamble for cleaning.  But as you said, without the NFA, maybe you don't care?

Do you use paper towels or cloth rags?  Does it matter?

Offline NWPilgrim

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #12 on: February 14, 2017, 12:57:36 PM »
I wonder if we get to a point where ATF under Trump deprioritizes enforcement of the suppressor aspect of NFA.  Wouldn't happen overnight, but it is possible that it becomes a well known SOP that no one will come knocking if you make your own.  The whole thing is ridiculous to begin with, and after some time under a relaxed focus it could become apparent it should be removed from the law.

I think barrel length is another stupid aspect of NFA (OK all of NFA is stupid!). Not even sure why length is restricted; but is a pistol gripped shotgun less scary/evil/danger to society than a full stocked shotgun with 10" barrel?  Or an AK pistol less scary/evil/danger than a AK rifle with 10" bbl?

Or, what if States started making suppressors stamp-free/legal as they have with marijuana? Perhaps register it on 4473 type form and do a background check if they want, but no stamp or restrictions.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #13 on: February 14, 2017, 01:17:22 PM »

Or, what if States started making suppressors stamp-free/legal as they have with marijuana? Perhaps register it on 4473 type form and do a background check if they want, but no stamp or restrictions.

As I understanding the "Hearing Protection Act",  the idea is that you'd still fill out a 4473 to buy a suppressor, but no NFA tax or waiting for months.

Offline trekker111

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #14 on: February 14, 2017, 09:22:48 PM »
As I understanding the "Hearing Protection Act",  the idea is that you'd still fill out a 4473 to buy a suppressor, but no NFA tax or waiting for months.

Correct, the act would make suppressors no different then long guns are now. They would still be serialized, on a 4473, and with a background check. Buying a manufactured suppressor would be no different than going to the gun shop and buying a deer rifle.

The reason that manufacturers are charging $700 to $1000 for these mid grade cans is there is an immense amount of prototyping, and engineering that goes into bringing it to market. Years were spent getting them ready for production.

I'm sure that there would be some low cost options out there if this passes, but I just can't imagine a world where a $50 suppressor offers 90% of what a $1000 one does. Nowhere else in the shooting industry do we see this. Not in rifles, not in optics, nowhere.

There is even an argument that prices will increase if this passes. The companies know that the consumers don't see their cans as $700 or $1000 cans. They see them as $900 to $1200 plus a big pita. The buzz around the industry is that manufacturers are not prepared to ramp up production, yet demand is likely to skyrocket upon passage. When demand outpaces supply, prices go up.

The options for home made are no where near the same league as these cans. We can already make rifles legally, but how many actually do it? There will probably be more people make a can than are making rifles now, but I hope I'm wrong and diy flourishes. The flashlight tubes and washer type options just suck so bad. They are like comparing a blister pack Walmart scope to a nightforce beast. I just can't wrap my head around a blister pack Walmart suppressor being much different. If you have the skill and equipment to make a good suppressor, you have the skill and equipment to buy a barrel blank and make the rest of the rifle from scratch.

Again, I hope I'm wrong, but I'm saving up for passage.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2017, 09:43:17 PM by trekker111 »

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2017, 07:09:07 AM »
The reason that manufacturers are charging $700 to $1000 for these mid grade cans is there is an immense amount of prototyping, and engineering that goes into bringing it to market. Years were spent getting them ready for production.

I'm sure that there would be some low cost options out there if this passes, but I just can't imagine a world where a $50 suppressor offers 90% of what a $1000 one does. Nowhere else in the shooting industry do we see this. Not in rifles, not in optics, nowhere.

It will probably be somewhere in the middle.  Since R&D is overhead it gets spread over the number of units sold. So $500 per for 5,000 units drops to $50 per for 50,000 units.  That is a drastically different proposition.

We know what is going on in the overseas markets where suppressors are unregulated. Economy rimfire models for standard velocity rounds sell for under $20 US and high end centerfire ones sell for under $500 US.  Mid-range like the Spartan Derilium is about $250 US:

http://gunworks.co.nz/shop/item/spartan-duralium-suppressor-for-bushmaster-m4-profile-223
http://www.silencer.net.nz/

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #16 on: February 15, 2017, 09:22:34 AM »
R&D overhead is old school thinking. 

Do you think Apple or Google spent billions before they starting making any money?  Nonsense. 
Technology companies in the 21st century practice something commonly called "test and learn".

First off, we're not developing a new product or building a market.  Both exist.

Most everyone on this thread has basic understanding of how a suppressor works.  A trip to a hardware store and $20 would likely produce something that lowered the noise profile.
There will be countless internet forums, blogs, youtube and other resources where makers compare and contrast design details in open source fashion.

The R&D has been done.  Future improvements will be incremental, and won't require the full investment from square one.

The premium brands will still exist for the "Warrior" class.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2017, 04:29:46 PM »
R&D overhead is old school thinking. 

Do you think Apple or Google spent billions before they starting making any money?  Nonsense. 
Technology companies in the 21st century practice something commonly called "test and learn".


Yes, I do.  In fact, some of their products like youtube haven't made a profit yet.  But there are spinoffs which make it worthwhile.

That said, I think you are absolutely correct on the mid and low-end side of suppressors.  But there is still much work to do with integrated suppressors.  Things like the integrally suppressed takedown 10/22 give a direction for firearm manufacturers they are only starting to think about:



Another example is that the Gun Club of American included in their recent gun tech video an integrally suppressed handgun with a normal sight picture that was featured at shot show.  I can't recall the name of it.  But I do think there is a lot of cool thinking about suppressors not being an accessory but integrated directly in the platform out of the box.  This has challenges for cleaning, sights, weight distribution, new materials for heat dispersion, ergonomics, etc.  That is where the R&D will go.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #18 on: February 15, 2017, 04:38:37 PM »
I remember when google paid $1 billion to acquire youtube.  None of us could believe so much money would be spent for a tech company...
Think it was 2005?  Time flies...

Another point of the integral suppressors, if NFA status is removed, and any "normal" gun owner is a potential customer, I see potential from-scratch firearm designs with sound suppression as a primary design goal.  Why retrofit a 10/22 if you can design a new kind of gas system specific to a suppressor?

Make a big enough market, its easier to justify investment.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #19 on: February 15, 2017, 07:01:28 PM »
I see potential from-scratch firearm designs with sound suppression as a primary design goal.  Why retrofit a 10/22 if you can design a new kind of gas system specific to a suppressor?

Exactly.  That is what the handgun gca featured was designed to be.  I am travelling so dont have access to the DVD but think it is the silencerco maxim 9. Main thing is that it maintained proper handgun balance and optimal sight height.  This can't be done with a traditional add on can.

https://silencerco.com/maxim/


Offline iam4liberty

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #20 on: February 15, 2017, 07:15:51 PM »
Oh, and I almost forgot about one of the coolest items, silenced ammunition!  I remember reading in one of Duncan Long's book about 12 gauge ammo which was self silenced.  I looked it up and one of the issues is that each round required a $200 tax stamp so made the design commercially infeasible.  But with this restriction lifted there is the possibility for innovation in the ammo itself.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #21 on: February 15, 2017, 07:32:22 PM »
Found it:



Offline iam4liberty

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #23 on: April 30, 2017, 02:30:48 PM »
But there is still much work to do with integrated suppressors.  Things like the integrally suppressed takedown 10/22 give a direction for firearm manufacturers they are only starting to think about:



FYI.  The firearm manufacturers have thought about this and are going all in.   Reports from NRA convention is Ruger factory integrally suppressed 10/22 was one of the big hits:



http://ruger.com/micros/silent-sr-ISB/index.html

http://www.guns.com/2017/04/29/ruger-delivers-silent-sr-integrally-suppressed-1022-barrel-photos/

https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2017/04/jeremy-s/new-ruger-silent-sr-integrally-suppressed-1022-takedown-barrel/

https://www.ammoland.com/2017/04/ruger-introduces-an-integrally-suppressed-barrel-for-the-1022-takedown/#axzz4flaQKAiT

There is a lot of enthusiasm that the HPA will make it on agenda by next year.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: ATF White Paper of possible revisions to firearms policies or laws
« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2017, 09:11:52 PM »
Just resurrecting this old thread given interesting developments. 

Silencerco 50 Maxim muzzleloader requires no paperwork.

https://silencerco.com/maxim50/

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=D_WfYFFK8uM

Obvious next step is a silenced blackpowder revolver.  If you have ever fired a gas sealed, suppressed revolver, they can be made very quiet.  (I have so please dont tell me they dont exist).  This means we could see silenced hsnguns with no paperwork.  I feel a political fight coming on...