Author Topic: How do you see the role of silver and gold in your survival planning?  (Read 4018 times)

Offline boomer_sooner

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I was thinking about this issue yesterday and I realized that my thinking on it really needed to be clarified.  It seems to me that people see silver and gold as one of three things:

1) Hedge against inflation

2) Safe investment in turbulent markets

3) Post-SHTF barter good

The first two make some sense to me, but I've never seen as much utility in the third.  I feel like a true SHTF scenario would see an inability to barter with anything other than useful goods, at least in the short run.  Long run, I can see the value of having precious metals as a part of your inventory, but I think that depends on the reestablishment of a gold/silver-backed currency or on the emergence of silver and gold as a de facto currency that is generally accepted.  My problem with that is that I doubt most people will have enough surplus to trade it for a store of value that they might not be able to use for something that they really need.

So how do you see silver and gold?  I currently own no silver and gold, as I'm currently in debt elimination mode, but I plan to lay up a supply of it when that process is complete.  However, I see it as an investment to help me within the present system and doubt its utility if that system should collapse.

Offline Crash

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Re: How do you see the role of silver and gold in your survival planning?
« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2011, 10:27:30 AM »
I think all 3 come into play here.

The hedge against inflation is a no-brainer. I'm sitting here right now looking at 2 NORFEDs that just arrived in the mail. Both are $5 pieces, one from 2006 and one from 2008. The 2006 piece is much larger than the 08. That speaks volumes.

The safe investment goes right along with the hedge.

Now, the barter good. Ok, yes, at first in a SHTF scenario it won't be much help, but when things start to stabilize, there will be a return to a monetary system. Historically, gold and silver (and to a great extent copper) have been the trade currency. That is when they'll be good for barter. You have to think long term here.

Offline BeachPete

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Re: How do you see the role of silver and gold in your survival planning?
« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2011, 12:52:51 PM »
I think the whole SHTF barter scenario is a little far out there.  It's an excellent hedge against inflation and uncertain times, which is what makes it a good investment.  When reports are out there that the true inflation rate is over 10% it only makes sense to have assets decoupled with the dollar.  I've been holding silver for several years and am waiting for a pullback to get some more (if a pull back happens).  If I didn't have any PMs I'd buy a small quantity as soon as I could.  Long term, silver is going to be $50 - $100 + however as fast as it's risen in the past six months makes me think a pull back is out there.

The barter situation will only come into play if it's a real TEOTWAWKI where populations stabilize and a means of exchange is needed.  At that time the value of the metal will need to stabilize for people to feel good about trading silver for X.  In a short term disruption, I'll be happy to set up a stand and trade food/goods for anyone with silver!

Offline boomer_sooner

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Re: How do you see the role of silver and gold in your survival planning?
« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2011, 01:05:33 PM »
Yeah, those answers make sense.  I can see a situation where PMs don't do anything for you, but I'm having trouble coming up with a situation where gold and silver will be useless, but U.S. dollars or any other currency retains some utility.  So maybe my concerns are unfounded except insofar as we should make sure and take care of our food preps and other survival needs before we go headlong into massive amounts of PMs, which I think we all agree on.

The thing that makes a lot of sense to me as barter PMs is junk silver because most people either know or would quickly find out that those coins are composed largely of silver and they're small enough to use in small transactions.  So maybe when I get started in PMs, I'll start with junk silver that can be a barter good or investment and then start to move into silver eagles or the like. 

We talk a lot about barter post-SHTF, but is anyone buying things with silver now?  I've heard of Jack taking silver for MSB, but I haven't seen anyone else doing it.  Is this happening on a community level anywhere?

endurance

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Re: How do you see the role of silver and gold in your survival planning?
« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2011, 01:22:50 PM »
I see all three and then some.  Gold and silver offers a different kind of diversification than a mutual fund offers in a portfolio.  If you think you're getting valuable diversification from a large-cap stock fund, well, you are and you aren't.  Sure, company XYZ represents just one of 136 different companies held in the fund, so if it goes bankrupt, you only lose 1% of your investment.  However, if you hold 16 individual stocks and you have a sudden need for emergency cash, even if many stocks are down, two or three are likely to be doing better than the rest, so you don't have to sell at a loss.  With a mutual fund, if large caps are down, you sell at a loss either way.

Gold and silver offers that kind of isolated diversity.  Stocks may be down, bonds may be down, corn futures might be down, but silver might be up.  It may also be down, but at the same time, you may have stocks that are up, in which case you sell at the gain, not the loss.

Beyond this, gold has a value density and is accepted around the world like no other commodity.  If tomorrow the Yellowstone volcano erupted and I grabbed my flight-legal BOB, drove to the airport and caught the last plane out to any foreign nation in the southern hemisphere before ash closed the skies, a pocket full of gold could make all the difference.  The US dollar may crash in response and be worthless, but I can walk into a bank in Argentina and exchange my gold for local currency without anyone batting an eye.  One pocket full of Krugarands is a powerful piece of wealth to re-establish a new life.

While that example may seem extreme, it's one of many examples of where portable currency rules.  The equivelent silver would fill my suitcase and I'd probably be overweight to fly, but it sure is nice for making change for a dollar. ;)

Offline excaliber

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Re: How do you see the role of silver and gold in your survival planning?
« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2011, 01:24:43 PM »
I think Gold and silver are well on their way here to being used as legal tender,,, Utah, just passed the below bill


The Senate gave final approval Thursday to a bill taking the first step to recognize gold and silver as legal tender in the state.

It voted 16-7 to pass HB317, and sent it to Gov. Gary Herbert for his signature.

The measure would recognize as legal tender gold and silver coins issued by the federal government — not just their face value, but also their value in gold and silver or to a collector.

It would not require anyone to accept them, however, but make it an option. It also would exempt sales of such coins from capital gains tax. It also would order the state to study whether Utah should establish an alternative form of legal tender, such as one backed by silver and gold.

"It will put some pressure on the federal government. That’s the goal here because right now we have a dollar that’s just running away with inflation and our hope is that this is a little bit of a shock that’ll say we want to deal with inflation," Senate Majority Leader Scott Jenkins, R-Plain City, Senate sponsor of the bill, said in earlier debate. He gave senators gold chocolate coins on Thursday before debate.

But Sen. Ben McAdams, D-Salt Lake City, was not impressed. He suggested that conservatives maybe should also look at "whether or not salt should be a form of legal tender. It has been a form of tender in the past. ... We have an abundance of salt in Utah. It could really shore up our economy."

Senate Minority Leader Ross Romero, D-Salt Lake City, said exempting the sales of the coins from capital gains tax would create an incentive for buying and selling coins that he said may not be wise state policy.

Rep. Brad Galvez, R-West Haven, sponsor of the bill, earlier told the House, "This is a step in preparedness, a step in security that allows us to be able to help hold up our economy as the dollar continues to shrink."

Rep. Ken Ivory, R-West Jordan, also earlier said, for example, that a 1960s John F. Kennedy half-dollar coin — 90 percent silver — would have bought three gallons of gasoline with its face value in the mid-60s. But the value of the silver in it today would buy about five gallons of gas, while the face value of the coin would buy only a fraction of a gallon.

Offline chrisdfw

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Re: How do you see the role of silver and gold in your survival planning?
« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2011, 03:15:43 PM »
I think that the real role of gold and silver is a store of wealth, and easily transportable one at that. Once I have everything else, it is where I would like to put some of my wealth, I prefer real estate and productive assets, but if I have to load everything I can carry on my sailboat (that I don't yet own) and sail away, gold is a way to take wealth with you and land on your feet in a far away land. I don't plan to run, but there are some things that you just can't fight (radiological contamination anyone?)

I don't see it as essential in a barter economy, helpful but not essential as a medium of exchange.

Only after I have all the other tools I need would gold come into play in a meaningful way, that means I own land, rental property, my sailboat, vehicles, etc.




Maryetta

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Re: How do you see the role of silver and gold in your survival planning?
« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2011, 04:51:31 PM »
Quote
Beyond this, gold has a value density and is accepted around the world like no other commodity.  If tomorrow the Yellowstone volcano erupted and I grabbed my flight-legal BOB, drove to the airport and caught the last plane out to any foreign nation in the southern hemisphere before ash closed the skies, a pocket full of gold could make all the difference.  The US dollar may crash in response and be worthless, but I can walk into a bank in Argentina and exchange my gold for local currency without anyone batting an eye.  One pocket full of Krugarands is a powerful piece of wealth to re-establish a new life.

While that example may seem extreme, it's one of many examples of where portable currency rules.  The equivelent silver would fill my suitcase and I'd probably be overweight to fly, but it sure is nice for making change for a dollar.

I do not see this as "extreme" at all - just look at Japan and the people who are now trapped there... Yes, some may be there by choice, but I'm sure there are those who want to leave, but can't...

From the perspective of a senior citizen, my hubby and I opted not to invest in PMs for our own personal reasons.
First, our retirement is our lifestyle choice, to be completely self sufficient because at our age we have adopted the motto: "if you can't make a buck, then save a buck" and it has worked quite well for us.  We do not "do without", in fact we have more and do more than our counterparts locally who are not self sufficient.  Additionally, we eat better and best of all, we take great pleasure in our lifestyle.
Should the SHTF, we will continue on as we are, we aren't going to 'run' to another location, this is our location.
Should the SHTF, as senior citizens, we don't expect to live for several more decades as young people who are still raising a family, so we don't see the need to "hedge" for our future in that manner. 
Going to get supplies we do not already take care of ourselves can be bartered for with the excess products we could provide to others should our country's monetary system break down to that point.
While my dh is the 'lone wolf' type, (seems to run in those who tend towards self sufficiency...) my personal desire would be to have more young people around for various work loads and defense.  To "me" (not dh) that would be more valuable than PMs.
In conclusion, it seems, the answer would lie within the perspective of each person and where they are in life.

endurance

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Re: How do you see the role of silver and gold in your survival planning?
« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2011, 04:59:14 PM »
I do not see this as "extreme" at all - just look at Japan and the people who are now trapped there... Yes, some may be there by choice, but I'm sure there are those who want to leave, but can't...
We still have one friend over there and it's driving us crazy.  His wife left last Tuesday and we met her in the airport expecting to see both of them.  Instead, he decided to stay behind because they're expecting a quick recovery and if not, they want to help their Japanese employees get out.  Now she's thinking of returning because "everything seems to be returning back to normal pretty quickly". 

The quake has apparently moved one of the largest rivers in the world; de Nile.  (sorry, I can't resist puns (denial))

As much as they're reporting of the growing radiation problem, you'd think the light would kick on at some point, but instead, they won't even accept my offer of my potassium iodide tablets that have been sitting around for years.

Maryetta

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Re: How do you see the role of silver and gold in your survival planning?
« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2011, 08:01:57 PM »
Quote
We still have one friend over there and it's driving us crazy.  His wife left last Tuesday and we met her in the airport expecting to see both of them.  Instead, he decided to stay behind because they're expecting a quick recovery and if not, they want to help their Japanese employees get out.  Now she's thinking of returning because "everything seems to be returning back to normal pretty quickly".

Perhaps this new info will help??

According to Asahi Shimbun which is quoting the Japan NRC, the Fukushima event has just surpassed Three Mile Island in terms of seriousness, and has been upgraded from Level 5 "Accident with Wider Consequences" to Level 6 "Serious Accident." Only Chernobyl is a Level 7 event. We believe Fukushima should get there within 2 weeks as ever more of the current devastation becomes public. Of course, all of this is a paper-pushing formality. What isn't, are people who may be developing serious diseases as the government continues to misrepresent the severity of the situation.

Source: W7VOA / http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fukushima-raised-level-6-ines-scale-now-officially-more-serious-3-mile-island

Offline g8tors09

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Re: How do you see the role of silver and gold in your survival planning?
« Reply #10 on: April 19, 2011, 09:41:50 AM »
Endurance had it right,

Other than a pitiful attempt to hedge for inflation, because with most people your not tlking about a large amount of gold or silver, the best part of having them is......   

Portable currency.  Would you give me that for ......  YEP!

endurance

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Re: How do you see the role of silver and gold in your survival planning?
« Reply #11 on: April 19, 2011, 01:15:10 PM »
Perhaps this new info will help??

According to Asahi Shimbun which is quoting the Japan NRC, the Fukushima event has just surpassed Three Mile Island in terms of seriousness, and has been upgraded from Level 5 "Accident with Wider Consequences" to Level 6 "Serious Accident." Only Chernobyl is a Level 7 event. We believe Fukushima should get there within 2 weeks as ever more of the current devastation becomes public. Of course, all of this is a paper-pushing formality. What isn't, are people who may be developing serious diseases as the government continues to misrepresent the severity of the situation.

Source: W7VOA / http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fukushima-raised-level-6-ines-scale-now-officially-more-serious-3-mile-island

In the end, she was bound and determined to get back to her husband's side.  She flew back to Japan on Sunday.  It is what it is.  If she was bringing children with her, I guess I'd be more upset, but she's a full grown adult and as such, a free agent to make her own decisions.