Author Topic: Ammo shortages (now 2016)? What are you seeing out there?  (Read 395903 times)

nelson96

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1170 on: March 07, 2014, 04:00:29 PM »
Yes.  Though to be clear, back when that was plentiful I wasn't into reloading yet.  I had friends that used to regularly get 1000 bullets for $50.

I love that place, and the Tactical Tailor next door.

inbox485

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1171 on: March 11, 2014, 10:57:01 AM »
Now for rimfire, I just realized I've been remiss in sharing some rimfire love. I'm going to break this down so bear with me, but the end result is getting .22 at retail without standing in lines at walmart.

First there is a back door link to Cabela's. I'll post it at the end. Read before using or you will just get confused.

You click the link, and it will look like a whole bunch of stuff is in stock. From here there are things you can do. If you click "view items in cart" you can go to the bottom of the list and click "email your shopping cart" and create a new link for yourself. The links get burnt after 30 days or if they get abused and 1000 people use the same link and then burn up the phones because they don't get how they work. So you want to start by making your own link and keeping it to yourself.

You can add to the links by adding things to your cart conventionally or by opening multiple cart links. You can remove items by going to "view items in cart" and using remove one at a time.

Now that you have your own link, you can start clicking checkout. When you do this, you get real time access to inventory. If there is anything in stock, you will see a new cart screen with just those items. If nothing is in stock, you will see an empty cart. Keep trying. You see the most inventory between 0800-1000 Pacific, but stuff will pop up throughout the day as excess orders get canceled (more on this). If you catch something in inventory, and click checkout again, you will be able to checkout with it even if you aren't super fast about it. Once you see the billing address page, the only way you can mess things up is by things like clicking checkout on another tab. In other words, from there, the order can be submitted even if somebody else got theirs in first.

That is where the catch comes in. No matter what that item will appear initially to be in stock. But as soon as you submit you will get an email, and you can check order history to see the status. At this point lots of chaos happens and most of the time you eventually get it, but not always, and not immediately. It will sometimes ship immediately, other times it will show back ordered, other times it will just sit as in process for days, and sometimes it will be canceled with cryptic explanations. Just think of it as a magic 8 ball and don't get too hung up on individual orders. Cabela's preauthorizes when you submit orders but they don't charge until they ship.

Whatever you do, don't call customer service asking about it. To them, the item will be out of stock, the order will have been an error, and ergo must be canceled. Just let it ride out and take its course. During processing, they are looking for double orders for people exceeding the daily limits. Those orders can but don’t always get canceled. Some people seem to get on naughty lists and get stuff canceled even when it isn’t over the limit. Others just get stuff canceled because it happens to be sunny outside. Again, magic 8 ball.

The majority of completed orders do eventually ship. Stuff that goes from in stock to back order tends to get filled within a few days. Point being if you work a desk job or can otherwise afford to poke your head in for a few seconds here and there in the mornings, you’ll score ammo here and there for minimal effort given some patience and persistence.

One thing you can do is remove the items from your cart link that you wouldn’t want even if it shipped. This speeds up the checks, and saves you from messes like getting something you want, and something you don’t, and then not removing the thing you don’t want in time to check out with the item you do want.

Yeah, yeah, it was a lot of reading, but it will pay off, and this link is nothing but trouble if you don’t know what you are doing with it. Cabela’s doesn’t care who is getting back door action as long as people aren’t causing them trouble with it. So by all means go get some, but be smart about it.

The link to get you started:
http://www.cabelas.com/checkout/retrieveShoppingCart.cmd?cartId=b921d1c5d74d83feb9f06ff9a499a396


1K packs of M22 are up, and probably will be in and out for hours if not days. Golden opportunity time if you are getting pressed on supply levels.

Offline Spadalach

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1172 on: March 11, 2014, 11:08:44 AM »
Thanks for the tip Inbox485.  Using this I picked up a box of M22 last week and I snagged another one today.  Less than six cents a round shipped is pretty darn good nowadays.

Offline LICountryBoy

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1173 on: March 11, 2014, 01:33:58 PM »
A good idea for those that are not in NY.
No more internet purchases of ammo here.

I picked up a brick of 500 for $25 a few weeks ago at Dick's. I happened to be there at the right time.
They had ten. I took one.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1174 on: March 11, 2014, 02:08:52 PM »
A good idea for those that are not in NY.
No more internet purchases of ammo here.

So I guess collecting milsurp guns in obsolete cartridges has probably lost a ton of interest there.  Good luck finding .303 British, Argentine Mauser or similar at a retail location.

Offline LICountryBoy

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1175 on: March 11, 2014, 02:39:14 PM »
I have seen .303 British at Dick's once or twice.
I noticed it because it was next to where the 30-30 should be and usually isn't.
30-30 around here is almost as hard to get as 22LR. The guys at the local shop said they have no idea why but they have a hard time with 30-30.
The local shop also has .303

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1176 on: March 11, 2014, 02:41:50 PM »
If I could legally mail it to you, .30-30 is all over the place here in western WA.  That and .270 seem to always be in stock.

inbox485

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1177 on: March 11, 2014, 03:41:34 PM »
If I could legally mail it to you, .30-30 is all over the place here in western WA.  That and .270 seem to always be in stock.

Ah .270. The caliber that walmart can thank for never actually having empty shelves. I was about to rebarrel my M1A...

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1178 on: March 11, 2014, 04:32:21 PM »
There's some BS regarding the "russian" cartridges.  Only a fraction of the US imports of the *x39 rounds are actually made in Russia.  Many are from Germany, Taiwan and other places.  Read a complete explanation:  https://www.thebangswitch.com/is-the-x39-world-coming-to-an-end/

The comments made regarding the Wolf brand seem a bit pie-in-the-sky'ish based on experience.  There was a small shortage of 7.62X39 in 2005.  If all these alternative sources were available why couldn't Wolf keep their products on the shelf then? And prices never recovered near to where they were before then (typically 9 cents a round).  Usually a company chooses its suppliers based on a balance of costs, quality, and ability to deliver.  So how can a company switch sources (across countries no less!) without at least one of these being impacted?

Ultimately I guess the cause really doesn't matter as much as the reality on the store shelves.  I have been watching ammo bot periodically and have seen the lowest available price for 7.62X39 move from 19 cents a round to 23 cents pre-shipping.  That is a 20% increase in just a week.  The trend looks like it will hit 25 cents by end of the week.  The least expensive retailers are already putting up stock out notices with no back orders allowed.  This is especially true of Wolf products so I guess the major retailers didn't get the message not to worry about supply from them.  ;)



On the plus side, for the first time in months our local Walmart today had all popular cartridges on shelf except 22LR.  Prices are definitely higher than pre shortage time (e.g. 29 cents vs. 22 cents for 9mm) but at least it is there!

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1179 on: March 11, 2014, 04:53:50 PM »
I don't own or shoot anything chambered for a russian cartridge, so take this for what it's worth.

Using available inventory as an indicator of internation trade or geo-politics is flawed the same as it is with .22lr.

Like .22lr, the people I know who buy Russian cartridges buy a lot of it.  I also know a few people, who whenever there's a peep of trouble, go out and buy almost all they can find. I suspect the "fear" of import problems was enough to empty the shelves of the *x39mm cartridges.


Offline TNVolunteer

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1180 on: March 11, 2014, 05:22:51 PM »
^^^^This^^^^

Fear

Offline MississippiJarhead

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1181 on: March 11, 2014, 06:01:25 PM »
It's just a panic.

I'll just refrain from shooting my 7.62x39 rifles until I can get more at regular retail prices.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1182 on: March 11, 2014, 06:16:19 PM »
Using available inventory as an indicator of internation trade or geo-politics is flawed the same as it is with .22lr.

Absolutely agree.  And I hope I didn't give that impression. 

What I was trying to convey is that it may be wise to take with a grain of salt what industry people say about their ability to perform.  There were a lot of them saying that 22LR and 9mm would never be in short supply or see large price increases because of the volume they were producing.  I remember one company representative advising people not to purchase 22LR at 5 cents a round as the price of their product will never rise above 3 cents a round.  But when you talk to the retailers and distributors (who know much more about current demand and the lead times) it is an entirely different story.  It is far too tempting for company representatives to stretch the truth about supply in an attempt to convince people not to switch to a competing brand when their product is gone from the shelves.

Like .22lr, the people I know who buy Russian cartridges buy a lot of it.  I also know a few people, who whenever there's a peep of trouble, go out and buy almost all they can find. I suspect the "fear" of import problems was enough to empty the shelves of the *x39mm cartridges.

Absolutely.  But fear seems to denote that it is purely an emotional and most likely, irrational response.  In truth, it is very rational.  Until the last few years, many shooters had a "just in time" approach to ammo. They would wait until just before a shooting session (whether it be a class, competition, or plinking session) and run down to their favorite retailer to get a couple boxes.  Now, it is changing.  People know how slim the inventory is and how it can disappear in a few days.  And they know when it comes back, it is at a much higher price.  So, now they are storing up more.  Frankly, I think this is a great thing.  I prefer that my neighbors have a reserve supply; ants over grasshoppers any day.  If anything, these shortages have been a great discussion tool about the need to prep.

inbox485

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1183 on: March 11, 2014, 06:19:35 PM »
Hate to say it, but the gun industry has more than enough people who react to fear mongering before fact checking to cause a shortage of something every time a rumor flies. This is reason #1 I stock ammo. Not disasters, not bans, not actual shortages... just to not get screwed by the hoarders and gougers that pounce on every rumor to stock out and inflate prices.

To give one example, someone whose opinion I normally agree with was saying that 5.45 surplus would dry up. Yeah, if imports got cut off, maybe. But roughly half of all the surplus ever produced is still sitting in Russian and Ukraine warehouses. Not exactly the sort of thing that a handful of wholesalers and dealers can stock out. The lowest price I could find actually went down from the $180/can norm during the shortage just went back down to the $160 range.

7.62 is a bit different since most of the imports are current manufacture. Current manufacture isn't being taken out of effectively bottomless warehouses, and exactly like .22 ammo, a handful of wholesalers, and dealers can stock it out, and flippers can keep shelves cleared off and create a fear based shortage. For that, find and camp on a retailer with good prices, and just be patient. Eventually the flippers and gougers get left sitting on inflated stock and stupidity fades.

d3nni5

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1184 on: March 11, 2014, 06:20:16 PM »
Gunbot.net is still showing plenty of companies selling 7.62x39 for decent prices.   Am I missing something?   1000 round cases for about $230.  I got plenty already for my Siaga, but just don't see this disappearing like the 223/556 did a year ago.   I'll watch it, but I see it in my local shops too.  It is more pricey, but hey, no shipping either.

I just got back from Wal-mart.   Plenty of everything but .22LR (no surprise).

inbox485

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1185 on: March 11, 2014, 06:27:28 PM »
Gunbot.net is still showing plenty of companies selling 7.62x39 for decent prices.   Am I missing something?   1000 round cases for about $230.  I got plenty already for my Siaga, but just don't see this disappearing like the 223/556 did a year ago.   I'll watch it, but I see it in my local shops too.  It is more pricey, but hey, no shipping either.

I just got back from Wal-mart.   Plenty of everything but .22LR (no surprise).

22 is by far the easiest to stock out just because every guy on unemployment can camp at Walmart every morning keep the shelves bare, sell on auction sites and forums at 500% and not run out of funds or storage space. Not as easy to do with other calibers.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1186 on: March 12, 2014, 06:47:40 AM »
To give one example, someone whose opinion I normally agree with was saying that 5.45 surplus would dry up. Yeah, if imports got cut off, maybe. But roughly half of all the surplus ever produced is still sitting in Russian and Ukraine warehouses. Not exactly the sort of thing that a handful of wholesalers and dealers can stock out. The lowest price I could find actually went down from the $180/can norm during the shortage just went back down to the $160 range.


I add a grain of salt with some of his public posts.  I realize his audience is much broader than just us TSP geeks who've been at this a while.
Sometimes an ammo scare can convert a gun guy into a prepper.

Offline LICountryBoy

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1187 on: March 12, 2014, 06:59:44 AM »
If I could legally mail it to you, .30-30 is all over the place here in western WA.  That and .270 seem to always be in stock.

Thanks for the thought.
I have bought a press and loaded up on reloading components so I can save the brass and reload.
I have reloaded 2 boxes but haven't had a chance to try them out yet.

When I see it on the shelves I'll grab a box or two.

Offline NWPilgrim

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1188 on: March 12, 2014, 10:00:39 AM »
A new Sportsman's Warehouse opened this week west of Portland (west 185th St and Hwy26).  They are still bring out stock from the warehouse to fill shelves, but have quite abit out already.  It looks like a  mini-Cabelas. :)  Their prices are about as low as bi-Mart or Fisherman's Supply, and will be having their Grand Opening Sale on Saturday with fully stocked shelves.

They have a LOT of ammo, except .22LR.  I picked up 1,000 Win LP primers, small ammo can of 350 rds Blazer Brass 9mm and a couple of reloading items.  Powder was not out yet but they say it will be Saturday.  Good selection of bolt and AR type rifles and lots of pistols and revolvers.

With Cabelas opening in Tigard (SW Portland) this fall the west side is looking UP!

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1189 on: March 12, 2014, 10:30:59 AM »
There's a Sportsman WH up in Federal Way, WA.

I go there all the time, as it's just a few miles on the highway.


my best local source for primers
occassionally they have powder
always have .223 and 7.62 (nato and russian), but at higher prices
fantastic Black Friday and other sales
guns are priced to sell



Offline ncjeeper

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1190 on: March 12, 2014, 11:05:05 AM »
Stopped by wally world and their shelves were fairly full of everything except 22.

d3nni5

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1191 on: March 12, 2014, 12:40:15 PM »


I went into Dunham's at lunch.   7.62x39mm on sale for $5.99, limit 4.   I got mine.   Plenty of rifile ammo, hardly any handgun stuff.   A couple of UMC bulk packs of .40, various self defense stuff, here and there.   

Offline TNVolunteer

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1192 on: March 12, 2014, 01:10:37 PM »
Virtually nothing of any variety at my local wally world but that is normal.  The local gun shows have the full selection of stuff including 22lr.  Pricing is fairly normal (= close to pricing prior Newtown) except on the 22.  It can vary widely.

Offline NWPilgrim

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1193 on: March 12, 2014, 04:37:33 PM »
There's a Sportsman WH up in Federal Way, WA.

I go there all the time, as it's just a few miles on the highway.


my best local source for primers
occassionally they have powder
always have .223 and 7.62 (nato and russian), but at higher prices
fantastic Black Friday and other sales
guns are priced to sell

Yeah, I first got started in bulk reloading at the SW store in Fife.  I was commuting from Olympia to Seattle and saw it from I-5.  First time I saw long shelves of just bullets!  Great prices too. Really happy to see them finally make it down to Hillsboro area.

Offline Spadalach

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1194 on: March 15, 2014, 10:41:51 AM »
Cabelas.com has 500 round bricks of CCI Blazer for $27.99 right now using inbox485's trick (see above).

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1195 on: March 15, 2014, 09:10:18 PM »
Cabelas.com has 500 round bricks of CCI Blazer for $27.99 right now using inbox485's trick (see above).

In my head I still expect to find 525 rounds of Fed Champ for $14.99.  Then again a sodapop should cost $0.50, and gas $0.99/gallon

Offline TexDaddy

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1196 on: March 16, 2014, 08:03:47 AM »
In my head I still expect to find 525 rounds of Fed Champ for $14.995.99.  Then again a sodapop should cost $0.50 .10, and gas $0.99 .35/gallon
I am a little older.  ;)

Offline dep190

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1197 on: March 30, 2014, 10:36:01 AM »
This past week and the previous week I went to Three different Walmart stores and all had zero handgun ammo or rifle or 22  ammo! I have also hit some small independnt stores and found a couple of fifty round boxes. I went to a Dick's Sporting goods and again found a very limited supply of ammo zero 22 or 17 HMR and no 9mm or 45 or 38 special at several locations while driving around northeast Ohio for work!
I went on line to Dicks  corporate and voiced my displeasure and asked how many rounds of 22 their purchasing had order  and how much they have actually received from the manufactures or suppliers and they were unable to say only  saying we try to get the stuff are customers like to buy!
I asked her if they buy direct feom the manufacturer like Walmart or they use Sporting good suppliers like smaller retailers are forced to? Again she could not answer!
A few retailers are holding the ammo in the backroom and only offering it when someone purchases a rifle or handgun so they will be able to shoot it! 
I wrote to Corporate customer service about my local Walmart and How It never had any ammo and an employee who is my neeighbor told me stuff was coming in but not reaching the shelves because she as an employee couldn't even buy a box I told them it seemed like the manager might be selling to only his friends, and a week later i was able to buy two 225 round boxes of remington 22 it has since all dryed up yet again!

Offline chad

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1198 on: March 30, 2014, 11:17:43 AM »
Dose anybody have any info on how much .22 is manufactured in the u.s. on any given day or month?

Trying to get an idea of how much .22 has been pumped into the system over the past year.

nelson96

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Re: Ammo shortages (now 2014)? What are you seeing out there?
« Reply #1199 on: March 30, 2014, 01:50:08 PM »
Dose anybody have any info on how much .22 is manufactured in the u.s. on any given day or month?

Trying to get an idea of how much .22 has been pumped into the system over the past year.

If I recall correctly, at least a year ago, I read a magazine that said 2-3 billion are sold in the U.S. each year.