Author Topic: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.  (Read 1435 times)

Thox Spuddy

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Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« on: January 27, 2013, 01:27:51 PM »
First this: http://rt.com/business/news/us-major-deposit-withdrawal-740/ Why the withdrawals?
And then this: http://rt.com/news/gold-manhattan-new-york-594/
From the article: "In a related development, both China and Russia are dumping their US dollars and building up their gold reserves."

In turn, both China and Russia have boosted domestic production of gold, a large share of which is being purchased by their central banks.
"When foreign currency is converted back to the currency of the home country it is referred to as repatriation. An example would be an American converting British pounds back to U.S. dollars." Wikipedia

Offline ncjeeper

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2013, 01:34:32 PM »
Silver prices have been on the climb since the first of the year also.
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Offline Tyronedeblanco

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2013, 02:07:52 PM »
First this: http://rt.com/business/news/us-major-deposit-withdrawal-740/ Why the withdrawals?
And then this: http://rt.com/news/gold-manhattan-new-york-594/
From the article: "In a related development, both China and Russia are dumping their US dollars and building up their gold reserves."

In turn, both China and Russia have boosted domestic production of gold, a large share of which is being purchased by their central banks.
"When foreign currency is converted back to the currency of the home country it is referred to as repatriation. An example would be an American converting British pounds back to U.S. dollars." Wikipedia


I think this has been going on (dumping american dollars and buying PM's / Resources at record pace) for a couple years now.  Mexico, India, Brazil, China, Russia, and I believe South Africa have all been doing this for the last 2-5 years at least.  Who know's what or when things may or may not change.  I thought 2012 would be the year we seen something big.  I believe eventually, The B.R.I.C.S will make a move at challenging the USD.  They have been already trading amongst themselves for quite some time avoiding the dollar.  I also believe China created its own "comex" a year or so ago???

Thox Spuddy

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2013, 07:40:37 PM »
Here http://ftmdaily.com/ftm-radio-show/u-s-gold-reserves-update-why-the-germans-want-their-gold-back/ is a podcast on "U.S. Gold Reserves Update: Why the Germans Want Their Gold Back". I haven't listened to it yet, but is the title in err? Are they not cashing in their U.S. dollars for German gold reserves, not U.S. gold reserves?

Offline endurance

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2013, 07:46:43 PM »
Here http://ftmdaily.com/ftm-radio-show/u-s-gold-reserves-update-why-the-germans-want-their-gold-back/ is a podcast on "U.S. Gold Reserves Update: Why the Germans Want Their Gold Back". I haven't listened to it yet, but is the title in err? Are they not cashing in their U.S. dollars for German gold reserves, not U.S. gold reserves?
I haven't listened, so this is just a guess, but as much as 50% of the world's gold is stored in US vaults for safekeeping.  I would suspect this is the gold they're seeking, but at this point it's just a guess.

If you want the the why, read Currency Wars by James Rickards.  It's quite possibly the answer to what is going on.
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Offline Cedar

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2013, 08:06:25 PM »
World news has been talking about currency wars the last few days:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-01-26/china-s-yi-warns-on-currency-wars-as-yuan-in-equilibrium
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/01/28/business/inflation-plan-sparks-talk-of-currency-wars/
http://blogs.reuters.com/nicholas-wapshott/2013/01/23/the-looming-currency-war/

“This is a dangerous scenario, which was played out at a huge cost to the global economy in the 1930s,” Behravesh noted.

Cedar
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Thox Spuddy

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2013, 09:02:30 PM »
From that last link: "In a race to the top, America is always well-placed to use its entrepreneurial ingenuity to great effect. In a race to the bottom, however, America can never win. " Sounds like something big is going on.

Offline endurance

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"There are things that you don't question when your home always smells like baking bread."  From The Hunger Games

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Offline Tyronedeblanco

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2013, 12:11:58 PM »
It's not just gold:  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-china-likes-silver-maybe-we-should-too-2013-01-25?link=home_carousel


Anything physical with value, the BRICS, especially china has been hoarding up assets for awhile.  Even the Central banks are grabbing PM's.  It's gonna be nuts if the world goes to one currency, or if a new Global reserve is established.  Just think of all the pensions, retirements, and savings that will lose their value....... factor in all the "social unrest" bills passed in the last 3 years.  then factor in the gun grabbing campaign of late.   Maybe im just crazy, but something is a brewing on my radar.

Offline surfivor

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2013, 12:11:05 AM »
Here http://ftmdaily.com/ftm-radio-show/u-s-gold-reserves-update-why-the-germans-want-their-gold-back/ is a podcast on "U.S. Gold Reserves Update: Why the Germans Want Their Gold Back". I haven't listened to it yet, but is the title in err? Are they not cashing in their U.S. dollars for German gold reserves, not U.S. gold reserves?

 I came across a similar article. I will have to listen to that podcast. A commentor on a blog said we told Germany we needed 7 years to get the gold to them or some such ? I have to wonder where the gold really is or who has it ..

Thox Spuddy

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2013, 09:00:16 AM »
I have listened to that podcast and Jerry Robinson shares a lot of similar concepts as Jack. Venezuela is devaluing their currency, I'll bet more nations will be doing the same.

Offline Crazy Fox

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2013, 10:15:11 AM »
Just a thought...

Regarding Thox Spuddy's first article (about deposit withdrawals), I'm not convinced that this news is clearly indicative of a move away from the dollar and not proof of some other issue.

According to the article, the withdrawals are just over 2% of the deposits. If we were seeing numbers 10 or even 5 times larger, I would agree that we have proof that people are wising up, but IMHO 2% hardly seems large enough to make such a statement.

As to other possibilities, the article states that the withdrawals could be transfers to different accounts, right? So for example, couldn't this 2% change be due to average people moving from national behemoths (B of A, Wells Fargo, First Bank, etc.) towards smaller local banks/credit unions? This is exactly what I did since my old bank was treating me like a serf, not a client.

Offline Wild Colonial Boy

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2013, 09:50:36 AM »
With such a large amount of gold being held in the US (Britain & France also hold a lot) on behalf of other nations such as Germany it seems only reasonable that they might want proof the US & other central banks are safekeeping their gold! I they want it in their own banks its only reasonable also!

I mean who honestly doesn't trust the central banks to do the right thing???? oh that's right they screw other nations just like they screw us.....

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Offline RationalHusker

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2013, 10:14:25 AM »
What's curious to me is despite these 3 things, which are all very public and open facts that cannot be denied:

1.  Verified and public repatriation
2.  US Mint halting production of silver eagles for a time
2b.  Record silver eagle sales in the month of January

PM prices have been and are still in consolidation mode.  I think there's even more going on that what is reported, but what is reported should be enough to increase prices, I would think.  I believe that PM prices are manipulated short-term, but that over the long haul, this manipulation is really not that effective.  So why and how have prices stayed this low for this long?  That's my question.  Is there hugh price-suppression going on here, or are gold and silver about the only assets that are indicating that a significant fall in asset prices (i.e., dollar strength) might still be in play in the next few months? 

If I knew the answer, I'd be homesteading full time instead of trying to prep and homestead between 2 jobs.






Offline RationalHusker

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2013, 10:27:03 AM »
Gold and silver are both trading in pretty narrow channels between their 50 and 200 day moving averages.  They are both bound to break strongly one way or the other, and should do it within months.  I put a small amount into a speculative play (call options on AGQ).  But with any money I don't want to lose, I'm going 25/75 in cash and metals, respectively, for the time being.  I'm over-weighted in PMs and need to accumulate more cash.  Nothing is worse than having to sell metals at a loss to buy a new appliance, for example.  That has happened to me before, and it won't happen again.  I'm a believer in inflation, but that doesn't mean I'm all in metals.  I admire the guts and conviction of Chris Duane - but I'm not there, yet.

Offline endurance

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #15 on: February 11, 2013, 10:30:15 AM »
...
 I believe that PM prices are manipulated short-term, but that over the long haul, this manipulation is really not that effective.  So why and how have prices stayed this low for this long?  That's my question.  Is there hugh price-suppression going on here, or are gold and silver about the only assets that are indicating that a significant fall in asset prices (i.e., dollar strength) might still be in play in the next few months? 
...
PM prices have always been manipulated and always will be as long as there are individuals with enough resources to do so.  The problem is that their game could be much deeper than our endurance.  All you have to do to keep prices low is to sell in equilibrium with demand.  The only people that can play this deep are the national treasuries and central banks.  They could sell for years and keep prices low.  Then you take advantage of a major economic disruption when people are having a hard time putting food on the table and are selling their grandmother's wedding ring just to make ends meet.  Nobody is buying because they're all cash strapped, 25-50% unemployment so the price plummets to $600 or $400.  You put the squeeze on for several years, buy in low enough volume to keep the price in the basement, but end up buying more than you had in the first place.  You're also acquiring land and homes as they default on their mortgages.  Then you print money like mad, create inflation to stimulate the economy, let them fear hyperinflation and run up the price of gold to new highs.  When they're earning again, they'll start buying up those houses again and you can charge astronomical interest rates on the loans to you because of your bad credit because of that foreclosure...

We're pawns in a much bigger game than we can comfortably wrap our heads around.
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Offline RationalHusker

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #16 on: February 11, 2013, 11:22:25 AM »
"...All you have to do to keep prices low is to sell in equilibrium with demand.  The only people that can play this deep are the national treasuries and central banks.  They could sell for years and keep prices low..."


That's true, but central banks are actually buying right now, not selling.  However, they could be selling paper gold/silver futures, while buying physical.  That, in fact, is a very likely scenario.  Using leverage and paper to keep prices flat.  They're going to lose their ass in the paper, but who cares when they're stock-piling physical.  Or they may dump the paper shorts during a panic event/phase (see below).  Or they'll just change the rules and default on their paper losses.  If that is in fact what they're doing, it's unbelievably bullish and makes the case that any non-emergency fund dollars should be used to accumulate metals.

"...Then you take advantage of a major economic disruption when people are having a hard time putting food on the table...You put the squeeze on for several years, buy in low enough volume to keep the price in the basement, but end up buying more than you had in the first place.  You're also acquiring land and homes as they default on their mortgages.  Then you print money like mad, create inflation to stimulate the economy, let them fear hyperinflation and run up the price of gold to new highs..."
 

I try very hard not to be conspiratorial, but what you say above is one of the only explanations I can think of for what's happening now.  They are in the "juicing" phase.  That is, they're desperately reflating assets (real estate, equities, and until recently, bonds).  Once they get enough people in these vehicles, the might just veer them straight toward the cliff to create a panic.  People liquidate (i.e., sell) everything just to be "safe" and put food on the table, as you say.  That creates a huge buying opportunity for those that don't need to worry about rent/mortgage, grocery budget, etc.  Then they can gobble up everything they want.  That may include metals at first, but keep in mind, they're already doing that now, and I don't think metal prices would stay low for too long.  If we crash, the dollar may strengthen, but only for a short time.  It will become obvious that only 2 choices remain.  Flat out dollar devaluation or outright default.  Once that's clear, then boom.  Gold soars again.

"...When they're earning again, they'll start buying up those houses again and you can charge astronomical interest rates on the loans to you because of your bad credit because of that foreclosure...

That I'm not sure about.  I don't know that people will start buying up houses again, especially at high interest rates.  That won't happen.  More likely, large cash buyers will gobble up housing and then charge rent.  Banks will become landlords on a large scale.  This is already happening, in fact. 

Long term, this all tells me to keep accumulating and being over-weight hard assets - As long as you have enough cash money to cover emergencies and to use when crises creates buying opportunities.  I guess what I'm saying is that I'm somewhere between Jack and Chris Duane.  I'm currently a little too overweight metals.  But I think having 30-50% of your "liquid" savings (i.e., non-assets, non-retirement) in metals is a pretty safe sweet spot.  I'm not willing to be over-weight cash, because there is a risk their, too.  I agree with Jack that the dollar isn't likely to go poof overnight.  But if a dollar "event" ever appears likely, it may be hard to time it right.

Thox Spuddy

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #17 on: February 16, 2013, 10:50:57 PM »
Just a thought...

Regarding Thox Spuddy's first article (about deposit withdrawals), I'm not convinced that this news is clearly indicative of a move away from the dollar and not proof of some other issue.

According to the article, the withdrawals are just over 2% of the deposits. If we were seeing numbers 10 or even 5 times larger, I would agree that we have proof that people are wising up, but IMHO 2% hardly seems large enough to make such a statement.

As to other possibilities, the article states that the withdrawals could be transfers to different accounts, right? So for example, couldn't this 2% change be due to average people moving from national behemoths (B of A, Wells Fargo, First Bank, etc.) towards smaller local banks/credit unions? This is exactly what I did since my old bank was treating me like a serf, not a client.

The 2% withdrawal stat has not occurred since September 11, 2001. That was followed by a major economic realignment.

Offline smithy1983

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Re: Look at what is going on with money, gold, currencies.
« Reply #18 on: February 17, 2013, 12:49:40 PM »

.....
Long term, this all tells me to keep accumulating and being over-weight hard assets - As long as you have enough cash money to cover emergencies and to use when crises creates buying opportunities.  I guess what I'm saying is that I'm somewhere between Jack and Chris Duane.  I'm currently a little too overweight metals.  But I think having 30-50% of your "liquid" savings (i.e., non-assets, non-retirement) in metals is a pretty safe sweet spot.  I'm not willing to be over-weight cash, because there is a risk their, too.  I agree with Jack that the dollar isn't likely to go poof overnight.  But if a dollar "event" ever appears likely, it may be hard to time it right.

I could not agree more. I am yet to be as fully committed as Chris Duane (not sure I will ever be 100% silver). Although I am toying with the idea of selling off the real estate that I have (to invest in physical) but this is the only alternative asset class that I have bringing some degree of diversity to my portfolio. I am holding various currency as cash but that is a small proportion.

I hope that I am right! - Though it is difficult to see an alternative when Bernanke has the printing presses running.