Author Topic: DOW broke 17,000  (Read 104237 times)

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #90 on: November 18, 2014, 04:19:25 AM »
Ahhh, but the trick with that date is that the market actually peaked in 2007, then fell in fits and starts until September 2008 when the bottom fell out. Thus, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. ;)
indeed, the number of interactions involved makes exact replication of events nearly impossible.  But larger trends might hold the same.

A high Dow, no indication of economic health. Metal prices are suggestive but not a rule. Unemployment can be suggestive but we have such a stilted definition of it now that we can't rely on it.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #91 on: November 18, 2014, 09:51:05 AM »
Ahhh, but the trick with that date is that the market actually peaked in 2007, then fell in fits and starts until September 2008 when the bottom fell out. Thus, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. ;)

True that.
Two hours into the bell and it is at 17,687 currently. Close was 17,647 yesterday.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #92 on: November 21, 2014, 09:16:09 AM »
Two hours from the starting bell and it is at 17,894.68 this morning, up 124.68.
Record close yesterday at 17,719.00

Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #93 on: November 21, 2014, 09:23:18 AM »
Sorry, this just seems so appropriate for this thread:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5akEgsZSfhg

 ;D

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #94 on: December 02, 2014, 08:57:01 AM »
Record close yesterday at 17,719.00

High so far today 17,844.29.

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Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #95 on: December 02, 2014, 05:02:25 PM »
Another record 17,879.55

Today:
Brazil dropped -664.11  or  -1.27%    
Mexico  dropped -384.00 or -0.88%    

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Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #96 on: December 03, 2014, 09:50:19 AM »
Hit a high of 17,905.33 so far today.

When I read an article by some dude a year or more ago, when he said that the DOW was going to hit 19,000 before it crashed, I thought he was bonkers, I was sure it would never get that high, especially in the time frame he stated.. now I am not so sure.

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #97 on: December 03, 2014, 03:05:10 PM »
Got as high as 17,924.15 today.
Closed record high today, over yesterday's record high at 17,912.62.

Gas prices got low before the 2008 crash didn't they? .. and the gas went under $2 a gallon today in Oklamoha City.

Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #98 on: December 03, 2014, 03:19:28 PM »
Got as high as 17,924.15 today.
Closed record high today, over yesterday's record high at 17,912.62.

Gas prices got low before the 2008 crash didn't they? .. and the gas went under $2 a gallon today in Oklamoha City.

Cedar
Gas prices followed the crash because demand crashed along with the economy (employment fears and such):




Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #99 on: December 05, 2014, 12:38:02 PM »
Was up to 17,991.19 today so far.

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #100 on: December 09, 2014, 08:48:39 AM »
Dow falls 200-plus points so far today.. and it dropped -100something yesterday.

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Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #102 on: December 09, 2014, 09:43:17 AM »
Good news, oil is worthless! Grab that second Hummer!

I don't think people have realized how deep this recession is. Energy gluts are usually a bad sign for manufacturing. I'm seeing signs that global demand is down.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #103 on: December 09, 2014, 09:49:37 AM »
Good news, oil is worthless! Grab that second Hummer!

I don't think people have realized how deep this recession is. Energy gluts are usually a bad sign for manufacturing. I'm seeing signs that global demand is down.

As long as the world has the population size it is, there will be some demand for energy.  There are many tiers to energy consumption, some elastic, a lot of it inelastic.

e.g. an old lady on fixed income may turn down her heat to save $$$, but she's not turning OFF the heat entirely.

Likewise with food production.  Tractors use fuel, as do processing plants, and delivering to points of sale.
Sure, a global depression will reduce leisure travel, and luxury goods (ski boats, RVs), but I don't think all of those "wants" are a big enough slice of the energy demand pie.

Offline Prodigy

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #104 on: December 09, 2014, 12:04:02 PM »
If you're into the pseudo-science mumbo jumbo that is technical analysis, there are now 5 official Hindenburg Omens in the last 6 trading days.  Even if you aren't completely sold on that type of analysis, you can't ignore the really bad signals for the stock market.  It's going to have some pretty big turmoil within the coming months.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #105 on: December 10, 2014, 10:13:55 AM »
Down -153.90 so far today, and although it is not dropping like a rock, it is emulating one.
Lost almost -400 points in a few days.

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #106 on: December 10, 2014, 12:02:50 PM »
Down -227.82 today so far..

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Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #107 on: December 10, 2014, 12:36:37 PM »
Now down to -246.99

Update:
Now down to -278.78

Cedar
« Last Edit: December 10, 2014, 01:03:52 PM by Cedar »

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #108 on: December 10, 2014, 01:56:21 PM »
Stocks tumbled Wednesday in the markets worst day since early October as a gloomy prediction for global oil demand sent crude prices plunging again. It was the third straight day of losses for the Dow and S&P 500 after a huge run-up since mid-October. As of 3:45 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones industrial average was down about 250 points, or 1.4%, to 17,552. The three-day drop puts the blue-chip index more than 400 points away from the 18,000 milestone it nearly hit Friday.

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #109 on: December 10, 2014, 07:44:56 PM »
So now it's a demand problem?  A few weeks ago it seemed the spin was a supply surplus. Given the unemployment numbers in the US, one would think the low oil prices would be a windfall for many other industries, not the least of which would be travel. But it would also impact disposable income for discretionary spending and shipping costs for industry.

Very odd to me.

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #110 on: December 11, 2014, 06:49:15 AM »
Ahhh, but the trick with that date is that the market actually peaked in 2007, then fell in fits and starts until September 2008 when the bottom fell out. Thus, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. ;)

Don't forget about the red flag that nobody seems to think about. The Stimulus Checks that the government gave to us. That Act was passed in Feb 2008, Bear Stearns was going under in Mar 2008 when JPM bought them.

Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #111 on: December 11, 2014, 07:05:27 AM »
Don't forget about the red flag that nobody seems to think about. The Stimulus Checks that the government gave to us. That Act was passed in Feb 2008, Bear Stearns was going under in Mar 2008 when JPM bought them.

Some of us were shorting these entities and Uncle Sam took thousands from us. Real happy they stepped in.

So now it's a demand problem?  A few weeks ago it seemed the spin was a supply surplus. Given the unemployment numbers in the US, one would think the low oil prices would be a windfall for many other industries, not the least of which would be travel. But it would also impact disposable income for discretionary spending and shipping costs for industry.

Very odd to me.

Demand is down. Black Friday/Cyber Monday saw a roughly 11% y/y drop. Tech retail is down. Pakistani textile orders are down (I track Pakistani textiles as they tend to be one of my recession plays). Money is being sidelined. OPEC is declaring war on its competitors (Russia, US, Canada) but oil isn't the driver.

This economy is the "pay down debt, buy back shares, and hunker down" model. Capital investment is shrinking (unless you get the citizens to pay a tax for your stadium... too close to home).

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #112 on: December 11, 2014, 07:24:15 AM »
Some of us were shorting these entities and Uncle Sam took thousands from us. Real happy they stepped in.
Demand is down. Black Friday/Cyber Monday saw a roughly 11% y/y drop. Tech retail is down. Pakistani textile orders are down (I track Pakistani textiles as they tend to be one of my recession plays). Money is being sidelined. OPEC is declaring war on its competitors (Russia, US, Canada) but oil isn't the driver.

This economy is the "pay down debt, buy back shares, and hunker down" model. Capital investment is shrinking (unless you get the citizens to pay a tax for your stadium... too close to home).

We would be better off if they had let the whole dang thing collapse. Debt eliminated across the board and a birth of a new credit based monetary system where banks do not control the money supply.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #113 on: December 11, 2014, 08:35:20 AM »
And now it goes the other way +215.96 already this morning.

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Offline Prodigy

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #114 on: December 11, 2014, 09:38:19 AM »
7 Hindenburg Omens in the last 8 trading days, now.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #115 on: December 11, 2014, 10:52:08 AM »
7 Hindenburg Omens in the last 8 trading days, now.

Can you do a quick run down on what that is?

Cedar

Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #116 on: December 11, 2014, 11:07:29 AM »
It's real technical stuff.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

I try not to go heavy into technical trading or I'll put most people into a coma. Suffice to say it might be straddle option time in the market. These are just indicators that have been aggregated. Nothing more.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #117 on: December 11, 2014, 12:01:54 PM »
I'm not sold.  When you are sampling something like temperature every day for years, the subject (temperature) of the sample never changes.

Trading PATTERNs of stock markets have radically changed in recent years.  With ubiquitous internet connectivity, ma and pa traders inject huge amounts of volatility.  Also, household brand names like "netflix" "apple" and "Tesla" often get traded in higher volumes just because lay people know of them.

Any idiot on the street might have an opinion on how successful apple or netflix will be next year, but a european re-insurance conglomerate would draw blank stares.

If we had a similar pool of traders trading for similar motivations over a long period of time, statistics about the markets would be more meaningful.

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #118 on: December 11, 2014, 01:23:16 PM »
I'm not sold.  When you are sampling something like temperature every day for years, the subject (temperature) of the sample never changes.

Trading PATTERNs of stock markets have radically changed in recent years.  With ubiquitous internet connectivity, ma and pa traders inject huge amounts of volatility.  Also, household brand names like "netflix" "apple" and "Tesla" often get traded in higher volumes just because lay people know of them.

Any idiot on the street might have an opinion on how successful apple or netflix will be next year, but a european re-insurance conglomerate would draw blank stares.

If we had a similar pool of traders trading for similar motivations over a long period of time, statistics about the markets would be more meaningful.

High frequency traders, Hedge Funds, and Central Banks (Namely the FED) are largely responsible for today's current market. Ma & Pa investors, aka you and I, are just pawns in the game.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #119 on: December 11, 2014, 01:41:55 PM »
High frequency traders, Hedge Funds, and Central Banks (Namely the FED) are largely responsible for today's current market. Ma & Pa investors, aka you and I, are just pawns in the game.

True, but many of the above you listed weren't really a factor in trade volumes a couple decades earlier.