Author Topic: DOW broke 17,000  (Read 104236 times)

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #30 on: July 14, 2014, 07:34:33 PM »
This is why I see so much more room for stocks to rise over the next few years.  There are billions of dollars in doom and gloom cash, losing value on the sidelines, because the majority of investors are still freaked out from the last crash.

There is not as much as you may think on the sidelines. Institutional investors are the big money anyways. The mom and pop investors don't really sway the markets. We just go along for the ride and most people are in the market and are not freaked out at this point. Trust me I work in the financial industry as a high level manager. Which means I have to be careful with what I say. I have access to extensive demographic data that may suprise you. People in total are more invested now than back on 2008. All the ingredients are mixed together and being placed into the oven as we speak. If any of you have money in the market, please use extreme caution.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #31 on: July 15, 2014, 12:40:15 AM »
Which means I have to be careful with what I say.

Why?


All the ingredients are mixed together and being placed into the oven as we speak.  If any of you have money in the market, please use extreme caution.

Spooky. 

Don't worry, it's all batteries, bullets, bullion, and barnyards for this crowd, anyways.

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #32 on: July 15, 2014, 07:28:21 AM »
Why?

Because if my employer would find out that I post here and if I say the wrong thing, aka disclose info they deem secret I could lose my job and get black balled. Six figure jobs are not easy to come by these days especially when you have to change career paths.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #33 on: July 15, 2014, 08:24:18 AM »
Because if my employer would find out that I post here and if I say the wrong thing, aka disclose info they deem secret I could lose my job and get black balled. Six figure jobs are not easy to come by these days especially when you have to change career paths.

My brother has to be careful as well to protect his job.

Cedar

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #34 on: July 15, 2014, 09:11:37 AM »
My brother has to be careful as well to protect his job.

Cedar

Yeah I'll share what I can with all of you but I just have to be careful. Actually what shocked me was they gave me approval to do my own podcast, yes because of my industry and position I had to get prior approval. I've really have to watch myself when I do shows because things could slip out when I get heated on an economic topic, which as happened already. lol

Now as for the Dow, Well we hit a new high yet again even though we are down at the moment. While that is happening silver remains under $21 an oz and Bitcoin is hovering around $618 and Litecoin is still in the single digits from it's smash down. The crypto currency that has peeked my interest is Namecoin and I bought 500 of those last week and I'm debating on buying some Litecoin at this level.

Offline bigbear

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #35 on: July 15, 2014, 10:32:39 AM »
In order for the up trend to continue the market needs to slide back a good 1,500 points over at least a 4 week period. If we can manage that then I see the DJIA hitting 20,000.

I get the idea behind following trends (i.e. market sentiment).  But I don't trust the idea of valuing market sentiment above market valuation.  Trend analysis has led to the conclusion that IF we hit XYZ, then the market will keep rising until 20,000.  IF we don't hit XYZ, then the market will drop to 12,000 (or whatever the drop is suggested to be).  It's part of why I'm becoming more of a dividend investor with the bulk of our 'nest egg' money and a 'story' investor with 'casino' money.  I don't have time (nor desire or stress aptitude) to follow daily trends.

Personally, I have a little cash on hand to play the slots in case the Fed taper causes a significant selloff but don't plan on selling any 'nest egg' holdings to prepare/speculate on a pullback.  But the biggest domestic trend indicator (IMO) will be job number and consumer spending through the holidays.  And geo-political risks can trump quite a bit...

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #36 on: July 15, 2014, 11:52:37 AM »
I get the idea behind following trends (i.e. market sentiment).  But I don't trust the idea of valuing market sentiment above market valuation.  Trend analysis has led to the conclusion that IF we hit XYZ, then the market will keep rising until 20,000.  IF we don't hit XYZ, then the market will drop to 12,000 (or whatever the drop is suggested to be).  It's part of why I'm becoming more of a dividend investor with the bulk of our 'nest egg' money and a 'story' investor with 'casino' money.  I don't have time (nor desire or stress aptitude) to follow daily trends.

Personally, I have a little cash on hand to play the slots in case the Fed taper causes a significant selloff but don't plan on selling any 'nest egg' holdings to prepare/speculate on a pullback.  But the biggest domestic trend indicator (IMO) will be job number and consumer spending through the holidays.  And geo-political risks can trump quite a bit...

Everyone has a different situation for sure and with that everyone needs and will invest in a different manner. That being said if you put money on the sidelines for a while, if you see a train coming, you may want to do so. However you also have to take in consideration taxable events. There is no perfect answer my friend, I'm just giving my overall view of the market and yes being a dividend investor is a wise move. I myself am a biotech speculator but I also work in the industry with a lot of years of experience and I would not recommend it to anyone.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #37 on: July 16, 2014, 10:13:52 AM »
17,138.81. New record today.

News of a takeover bid by Rupert Murdoch's 21st Century Fox for Time Warner energized investors as shares of Time Warner shot up 16%.

Cedar

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #38 on: July 16, 2014, 10:48:30 AM »
17,138.81. New record today.

News of a takeover bid by Rupert Murdoch's 21st Century Fox for Time Warner energized investors as shares of Time Warner shot up 16%.

Cedar

I do love when the Market behaves like this because it makes my type of investing provide even greater returns. I know I've told you folks that I make my money investing in Biotech stocks and I would like to show you what I do. What I do is I target small biotech companies (under $1 billion in market cap) that have major events coming up with in a month/ month and half. Just for the record I'm not going to give specific stocks because I don't what anyone to say that I'm writing this for my own benefit, because I'm not. Okay back on topic. There are three main events that I look for.
1. Phase 3 trial results
2. Advisory committee for the FDA - they vote on the recommendation of approval.
3. PDUFA - this is the deadline for the FDA to announce approval or denial of a product.
Typical on advisory committee days the stock is halted from trading for the whole day and on PDUFA the stock is halted until the announcement which can take place anytime during the trading day.
Now if you start to take long positions in companies that fit what I've spelled out you can make some serious cash. Now it is very risky but there are very good day trading opportunities and also great buy and short term hold positions as well. During the final month to month and half these types of stocks typically get a great run up in stock price and depending on the stock it can get smashed two or three trading days before the event, which is a great chance to day trade. Now holding onto the position through these event days take big balls and you better do your research on the drug or product if you attempt to so that and for the record I have done that but I knew the drugs and their studies. Here is the website that I visit to find my target companies to invest in and if any of you have questions on this you can PM me and I’ll be glad to help you out.
http://www.biopharmcatalyst.com/fda-calendar/

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #39 on: July 31, 2014, 05:38:03 PM »
The Dow fell 317 points today, erasing all of its gains for the year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply as well, each down about 2%. They gave back the all the gains they had made in July.

Heavy selling overseas, driven by worries about Argentina's latest debt default and more problems with a big Portuguese bank, combined with a slew of negative earnings and a disappointing outlook on manufacturing from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago to drop stocks.

From around the world stock markets today:
Dow Jones Industrial Average  United States   -317.06    
S&P 500 Index                       United States  -39.40    
Brazil Bovespa Stock Index       Brazil           -1,048.56    
Canada S&P/TSX 60               Canada           -12.24    
Santiago Index IPSA               Chile           -25.53
IPC                                       Mexico           -493.37    
FTSE 100                               England           -43.33
CAC 40                               France           -66.16    
DAX                                       Germany       -186.20    
Mumbai Sensex                       India           -192.45    
Taiwan TSEC 50 Index               Taiwan           -131.17    

Cedar

Offline digitalartranch

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #40 on: July 31, 2014, 08:11:53 PM »
lots of reports out due tomorrow as well... could turn this either way really...   (unemployment, buyer sentiment...etc)  stay tuned.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #41 on: October 09, 2014, 07:12:40 PM »
Dropped -334.97 (1.97%)

Cedar

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #42 on: October 10, 2014, 10:16:35 AM »
Yeah I'll stick with my 15 years of industry experience. Again Cedar no markets go straight up without a correction pull back and the long it goes the harder the pull back will be. If the Down breaks under 15,000 over then next 2 months then it will continue the up trend. If not and continues to climb I will be selling all my positions by mid September and I would strongly advise all of you to do the same because at that point October will be a blood bath.

Looks like I might be proven right. However I can't discount the Fed from playing the role of Atlas and holding the market up. I pulled my money from the market two weeks ago so I can kinda put my feet up and watch the fireworks.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #43 on: October 10, 2014, 01:45:19 PM »
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102077671

"Exhaustion has almost set into the market. The volume is getting lower because people don't know what to do," said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade.

"With the Fed going away, and the slowdown in Europe, the market is trying to figure out are these valuations fair, that's what this whole week has been about," said Kinahan.

Equities fell to session lows after Standard & Poor's downgraded the outlook for France to negative from stable.

Cedar

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #44 on: October 10, 2014, 01:55:03 PM »
I pulled my money from the market two weeks ago so I can kinda put my feet up and watch the fireworks.

I didn't, and I won't. And I'm still putting my feet up and watching the fireworks.

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #45 on: October 10, 2014, 02:25:37 PM »
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102077671

"Exhaustion has almost set into the market. The volume is getting lower because people don't know what to do," said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade.

"With the Fed going away, and the slowdown in Europe, the market is trying to figure out are these valuations fair, that's what this whole week has been about," said Kinahan.

Equities fell to session lows after Standard & Poor's downgraded the outlook for France to negative from stable.

Cedar

That right there is telling you that Institutional investors have pulled out of the long side of the market and have finished sell their short positions. The mom and pops, including Mutual Funds, are left long in the market and scared to death. Seen this game before.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #46 on: October 10, 2014, 03:24:44 PM »
The mom and pops, including Mutual Funds, are left long in the market and scared to death.

That's me, well, except for the scared to death part.

nelson96

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #47 on: October 11, 2014, 04:55:15 PM »
Don't worry, it's all batteries, bullets, bullion, and barnyards for this crowd, anyways.

I can't say I'm not scared, but my market investments are in a 401K and I keep my contribution percentage low enough that my budget doesn't get too hurt and so that I can take advantage of my employers 100% match. . .  It's scary because when I do look at the fund, it's getting pretty sizeable and would hate to lose it for all that it can offer some day.

That said, I keep other investments tangible (silver and other property... including batteries, bullets, bullion, and barnyards). 

Offline Prodigy

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #48 on: October 13, 2014, 11:30:43 AM »
There is a semi well known analyst named McHugh that has been preaching for awhile about how there is not only a multi-decade, but a multi-century collapse soon to come.  He bases it almost entirely on a technical analysis, and lately has been going kind of crazy pointing out things currently are unfolding just as they would before a very large collapse.  I think it's pretty clear some sort of crash is coming, it's just the size that is the debate.  However, if this guys multi-century analysis is correct... well, it's about as bad as it gets so let's hope that's not how this cookie crumbles.

Excerpt from one of his latest updates:
Quote
The stock market remains on a confirmed and official Hindenburg Omen from Friday, September 19th.  This comes at the precise same time that a rare and important and dangerous Bearish divergence is occurring between the NYSE cumulative Advance/Decline Line and stocks, and also is coming at the same time the long developing multi-decade extremely dangerous Bearish Jaws of Death pattern looks complete. It also comes when the Fed will now be pulling liquidity out of the market. This confluence is very dangerous, and it is arriving at the seasonally worst time of the year for stocks, the September into October timeframe.

He used to talk a lot about the Hindenburg Omen, and now that it's confirmed he's getting pretty worried.

Ah well... just one dudes take that is surely the exact opposite of plenty of other educated folks.  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, and keep living life.

(oh, and to give due credit/blame for McHugh:   http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/   -- full disclosure I've never been to that site before, I just get forwarded updates from a family member who subscribes to his stuff)

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #49 on: October 15, 2014, 08:56:59 AM »
And down we go again!

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #50 on: October 15, 2014, 09:03:13 AM »
-213 at the moment.

Cedar

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #51 on: October 15, 2014, 09:32:58 AM »
This morning a commentator on NPR MarketWatch said we should expect daily fluctuations of +/- 200 points for the DJIA.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #52 on: October 15, 2014, 09:48:36 AM »
European shares closed sharply lower on Wednesday as investors shunned risky assets on fears of crumbling global growth, weak economic data, and concerns about the political situation in Greece.

The FTSE closed provisionally down 2.8 percent, the French CAC slipped to close around 3.6 percent lower and Germany's DAX was 2.9 percent lower at the close.

DOW currently -274.12

Cedar

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #53 on: October 15, 2014, 10:09:51 AM »
This morning a commentator on NPR MarketWatch said we should expect daily fluctuations of +/- 200 points for the DJIA.

Wow that commentator really stuck their neck out there making that call.  ::)

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #54 on: October 15, 2014, 10:18:51 AM »
European shares closed sharply lower on Wednesday as investors shunned risky assets on fears of crumbling global growth, weak economic data, and concerns about the political situation in Greece.

The FTSE closed provisionally down 2.8 percent, the French CAC slipped to close around 3.6 percent lower and Germany's DAX was 2.9 percent lower at the close.

DOW currently -274.12

Cedar

I'm honestly expecting a 22% pull back from the DJIA high of 17,350. That would put us at 13,880. The one thing that could stop the slide is the Fed not killing QE this month but rather ramping up of QE yet again. If you notice the 10 year US T note fell under 2% today for a moment. That to me is a key sign that the Fed will come in to "rescue the market" yet again. If the 10 yr was at or above 3% the Fed would not be able to ramp up QE again because at that point they might lose control of rates and then the dollar would be screwed.

Offline Prodigy

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #55 on: October 15, 2014, 10:25:54 AM »
European shares closed sharply lower on Wednesday as investors shunned risky assets on fears of crumbling global growth, weak economic data, and concerns about the political situation in Greece.

Cedar

I love how every single time stocks go up or down, the news reporter always pegs the exact reason with current national and global events.  It's always because of "fears of weak jobs data", or "confidence from strong earnings reports".  Just for once, I'd like to hear a report like:

"Today the DOW fell 250 points, and the S&P and other major indexes were down over 1% due to the fact that the market has been bloated with fed money for years, which is about to dry up, and was falsely propping up the market, and due to decades of reckless debt incursion by just about every major financial institution and  every local, state, and federal government which never was fixed after the 2008 recession, and YES, partly due to fears of crumbling global growth and weak economic data and concerns about the political situation in Greece, but also primarily due to the nearly infinite and uncountable number of influences on the market that not even the whole of human knowledge can grasp."

Ok, I admit, hearing that report every day would get kind of old, but at least it'd be accurate.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #56 on: October 15, 2014, 10:28:09 AM »
Ok, I admit, hearing that report every day would get kind of old, but at least it'd be accurate.

 ;)

Cedar

PS -352.43 (2.16%)
« Last Edit: October 15, 2014, 10:45:12 AM by Cedar »

Offline farmboy

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #57 on: October 15, 2014, 11:54:49 AM »
So, question is. Is it going to stabilize soon or should i put my old 401k into a cash/bond safe option

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #58 on: October 15, 2014, 12:40:58 PM »
So, question is. Is it going to stabilize soon or should i put my old 401k into a cash/bond safe option

It's up to the Fed. If they follow through with killing off QE then it will continue to tank. If the Fed keeps QE and increases it then the market could stabilize but that is not a for sure thing.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #59 on: October 15, 2014, 12:59:36 PM »
Do like Warren Buffet - without incurring penalties, move into "safer" options.  After the plunge go on a buying spree.

Think the quote is "be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy"