Author Topic: DOW broke 17,000  (Read 104590 times)

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #180 on: August 21, 2015, 01:35:00 PM »
-482 12:34pm my time
-485 12:34 pm my time
-500 12:36 pm my time

Cedar

Offline Prodigy

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #181 on: August 21, 2015, 01:53:14 PM »
One of the main economic/investor types - McHugh - that my father pays very close attention to (and forwards all the email updates) says this is officially the start of a major, 7 year bear market.  He says there will, of course, be steps up and down along the way, but it will go ever lower year after year for 7 years.  He'd been predicting it for some time now, but not just predicting an economic crash (since those are guaranteed to happen every so often) - instead predicting the coming 'Economic Ice Age'.  This is the first day he's said 'its officially started'.

Take a couple grains of salt with it.  He's one of those technical analysts, so its all historical graph analyzing. 

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #182 on: August 21, 2015, 01:57:39 PM »
-519 at 12:57 my time

AT CLOSE
-531.14        -3.13%

"Officially a correction"

Cedar
« Last Edit: August 21, 2015, 02:06:54 PM by Cedar »

Offline chad

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #183 on: August 21, 2015, 02:03:42 PM »
Is that the blades I hear getting bent....

Offline ncjeeper

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #184 on: August 22, 2015, 12:31:24 AM »
Im glad I am in conservative funds.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #185 on: August 22, 2015, 05:13:02 AM »
This number will change, but DOW 'pre-market' trading is sitting at -477.00 for Monday currently. Nasdaq is at -170.2 for pre-market and S&P -57.00.

They are saying that the three big factors are driving this week's worries:
1. Concerns are growing that China's economy is slowing down faster than its government has said.

2. Investors had been preparing for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate in September. However, the central bank has been sending mixed signals. That's dredging out the market's worst enemy: uncertainty.

3. Oil prices dropped below the key $40 level for the first time since 2009.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/21/investing/stocks-market-lookahead-august-21/

Cedar

Offline GreyWolf

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #186 on: August 22, 2015, 10:56:35 AM »
For what it is worth Morgan Stanley predicts the FED will not raise interest rates.

Offline Beetle

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #187 on: August 22, 2015, 06:25:22 PM »
Diesel dropped a dime here over night.

Offline TexGuy

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #188 on: August 23, 2015, 03:02:55 PM »
This number will change, but DOW 'pre-market' trading is sitting at -477.00 for Monday currently. Nasdaq is at -170.2 for pre-market and S&P -57.00.

They are saying that the three big factors are driving this week's worries:
1. Concerns are growing that China's economy is slowing down faster than its government has said.

2. Investors had been preparing for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate in September. However, the central bank has been sending mixed signals. That's dredging out the market's worst enemy: uncertainty.

3. Oil prices dropped below the key $40 level for the first time since 2009.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/21/investing/stocks-market-lookahead-august-21/

Cedar

I want to believe this is just a correction in the market, but China is huge. Everything that comes from the ground is down which screams people in China aren't buying it anymore.

However, I can't find much that says we should crash and burn .... yet.

Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #189 on: August 23, 2015, 03:17:43 PM »
I exited China (investment wise) early in 2015. I've held a few positions with Chinese exposure (like Yum) but I got skeeved out by their shady economic practices. Empty cities no good.

Anybody else slowly buying oil companies? Traditionally in bears we load up on consumer goods but food and durables have been in a slump. It's hard noit to buy up oil stocks when they go on sale.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #190 on: August 24, 2015, 07:30:02 AM »
Premarket, the DOW is at -852 this morning


Around the globe there is MASSIVE selloffs.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/24/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

China - The Shanghai Composite closed -8.5% down
London - London's FTSE 100 plunged -3%
Germany - Germany's DAX also fell -3%.
Japan - Tokyo's Nikkei ended the session -4.6% down
India - Down -5.9%



World markets plunge as China stocks crash
http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/23/investing/world-stock-markets/index.html

2 minute plunge of China's stock market
http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/09/investing/china-crash-in-two-minutes/index.html


Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #191 on: August 24, 2015, 07:35:49 AM »
9:30am At the bell... DOW dropped -1,059 This was a 6% loss
9:36am -803.77
9:43am - 502.87      Sitting at 15,956.88
9:48am -613.06
9:49am - 679.06
9:51am -698.37
9:51am -707.81  (Oil price falls below $38 per barrel)
9:52am - 739.06 (They are saying this is the biggest selloff since 2009)
9:53am - 801.99

Dow dropped 777 in October 2009. That was the historic record apparently.

Cedar
« Last Edit: August 24, 2015, 08:03:49 AM by Cedar »

Offline hackmeister

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #192 on: August 24, 2015, 08:02:57 AM »
This one has been long coming. Markets has been overvalued for some time now. There's a zero chance now that they'll raise interest rates before the end of year. The next question is this just a correction or something worse?

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #193 on: August 24, 2015, 08:05:22 AM »
The next question is this just a correction or something worse?

I think something worse and not just the stock market. It is just a symptom.

Cedar

Offline bigbear

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #194 on: August 24, 2015, 08:53:29 AM »
Anybody else slowly buying oil companies? Traditionally in bears we load up on consumer goods but food and durables have been in a slump. It's hard noit to buy up oil stocks when they go on sale.

Oil probably doesn't have the same downside risk as other sectors.  They have already had a pretty good selloff.  Some time last week one of the majors made headlines for their spending in the Artic I believe. 

I think healthcare is still a pretty strong industry (Boomers still aging, immunotherapy having some good breakthroughs, FDA approving safe/effective drugs faster, Obamacare still spending money, insurance and pharma companies seeing quite a bit of M&A activity).  That said, the next few weeks will be choppy at best as 'winners' are sold to balance the 'losers'.

Offline Beetlebum

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #195 on: August 24, 2015, 10:02:23 AM »
Im glad I am in conservative funds.

On this note - where where would you guys park your 401K type funds for the near term? All my 401k/TSP (Thrift Savings Plan)/IRA accounts are in target funds (~2040). I've been thinking about moving them to more conservative funds in anticipation of a correction but haven't been comfortable with my knowledge base to make a move in attempt to time the market.

If its a simple correction, am I too late? Is better to just ride it out where I am? If this is a longer bear market (7 yrs as one above post predicted), what types of funds would you pick to ride it out (cash equivalents, leave it in target fund)? If you temporarily pick something more conservative, what key indicators are you looking/would you look for to get back into a more aggressive fund?

*I know this is highly personal. Personal situation is: see above for my timeline, no debt, emergency fund complete, employer matches 5% 401k

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #196 on: August 24, 2015, 10:25:46 AM »
On this note - where where would you guys park your 401K type funds for the near term? All my 401k/TSP (Thrift Savings Plan)/IRA accounts are in target funds (~2040). I've been thinking about moving them to more conservative funds in anticipation of a correction but haven't been comfortable with my knowledge base to make a move in attempt to time the market.

If its a simple correction, am I too late? Is better to just ride it out where I am? If this is a longer bear market (7 yrs as one above post predicted), what types of funds would you pick to ride it out (cash equivalents, leave it in target fund)? If you temporarily pick something more conservative, what key indicators are you looking/would you look for to get back into a more aggressive fund?

*I know this is highly personal. Personal situation is: see above for my timeline, no debt, emergency fund complete, employer matches 5% 401k

Ride it out. You've got time on your side and your finances are in order.  It's easier said than done, though.

endurance

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #197 on: August 24, 2015, 10:39:34 AM »
Oil probably doesn't have the same downside risk as other sectors.  They have already had a pretty good selloff.  Some time last week one of the majors made headlines for their spending in the Artic I believe. 

I think healthcare is still a pretty strong industry (Boomers still aging, immunotherapy having some good breakthroughs, FDA approving safe/effective drugs faster, Obamacare still spending money, insurance and pharma companies seeing quite a bit of M&A activity).  That said, the next few weeks will be choppy at best as 'winners' are sold to balance the 'losers'.
Oil is risky in my mind.  There is so much investment in wells that cost millions to drill right now that won't pay for themselves enough to break even unless oil is over $70/barrel.  At sub-$40 right now, they're hemorrhaging.  While eventually it will come back, a substantial slowdown in consumption caused by a weak Chinese economy (second largest consumer of oil in the world) will hold prices low for a while; perhaps a very long while if this is a longer event.

Traditionally, the safer stuff is the stuff no one can live without, stuff like your supermarket and discount store stocks.  That said, right now I think the airlines are benefiting from all this cheap oil, as fares haven't really changed that much since oil was three times its current price.

I'm a pretty lazy investor.  I freak out at the big drops (although not with with one, yet), but generally keep a conservative portfolio. I'm a little over a decade from retirement, so I'm not super worried about the normal fluctuations, but I'll be honest, 2008-2009 freaked me out!

And besides, this is not a sign of the apocalypse:



People still want to buy right now, enough that this morning made a lot of people very, very rich after the morning sell off.

Max

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #198 on: August 24, 2015, 10:51:19 AM »
I think something worse and not just the stock market. It is just a symptom.

Cedar

Bingo!!!! China is the driving factor on this go around. It may smooth out over the next couple of weeks but I'm keeping a close eye on October.

Offline Sunshine

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #199 on: August 24, 2015, 11:57:40 AM »
I think "they" will do everything in their power to halt losses, prop up the economy, and assure us that everything is just fine... until they absolutely can't anymore.  October concerns me as well.

Offline jm_sol

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #200 on: August 24, 2015, 03:13:12 PM »
I've been in the heat all summer.. Gardening and foraging.    Maybe I've missed something..... What's October supposed to bring. Just curious

Offline TexDaddy

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #201 on: August 24, 2015, 03:35:05 PM »
The DJIA closed today at 15,871.35, down 588.40 today.

It closed at 18,312.39 on May 19th. Down 2,441.04 since then.

Offline busymomx3

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #202 on: August 24, 2015, 04:45:33 PM »
To answer the question above, October is supposed to bring a major correction to the market they say...  "they"

I've been watching this today with some curiosity.  Some "breakers" were tripped in special markets and trading was halted which could by what kept the dow from falling to far.  It's why those are there.  Eventually all the propping will catch up to them, that is the scary part IMO is that they just keep faking it.  Guess time will tell.

Offline Beetle

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #203 on: August 24, 2015, 04:46:27 PM »
I think it's going to go way up tomorrow. Buy the dip and hold on.

Offline TexGuy

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #204 on: August 24, 2015, 06:02:15 PM »
9:30am At the bell... DOW dropped -1,059 This was a 6% loss
9:36am -803.77
9:43am - 502.87      Sitting at 15,956.88
9:48am -613.06
9:49am - 679.06
9:51am -698.37
9:51am -707.81  (Oil price falls below $38 per barrel)
9:52am - 739.06 (They are saying this is the biggest selloff since 2009)
9:53am - 801.99

Dow dropped 777 in October 2009. That was the historic record apparently.

Cedar

This isn't even close to a historic record percentage wise. Dollar wise yes, but you have to remember our current dollars are worth a lot less than they use to be.

Inflation is a killer and our politicians (and most American citizens) love inflation. Seems they will never learn.
 

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #205 on: August 24, 2015, 08:26:07 PM »
This isn't even close to a historic record percentage wise. Dollar wise yes, but you have to remember our current dollars are worth a lot less than they use to be.

It was the largest one day drop however

Cedar

Offline Sunshine

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #206 on: August 24, 2015, 08:36:37 PM »
To answer the question above, October is supposed to bring a major correction to the market they say...  "they"

I've been watching this today with some curiosity.  Some "breakers" were tripped in special markets and trading was halted which could by what kept the dow from falling to far.  It's why those are there.  Eventually all the propping will catch up to them, that is the scary part IMO is that they just keep faking it.  Guess time will tell.

There's also been talk about the IMF meeting and considering adding a new reserve currency, which could have strong repercussions on the dollar value... but I just found this article that says it's been deferred:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/imf-defers-yuans-inclusion-sdr-basket-until-october-2016-1516233


Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #207 on: August 24, 2015, 09:47:26 PM »
Currently:
China preopen has Shanghai down 6.4%, Shenzhen down 7%, ChiNext down 7.3%

Cedar

Offline Beetle

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #208 on: August 24, 2015, 09:55:17 PM »
Buy, Buy, Buy....

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #209 on: August 24, 2015, 10:52:27 PM »
Monday:  Trading was halted 1,200 times Monday. The selling on Wall Street was so dramatic Monday that it triggered unprecedented emergency freezes on stocks.

Cedar