Author Topic: DOW broke 17,000  (Read 104169 times)

Offline jimhcom

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #240 on: June 05, 2016, 10:20:42 AM »
It is not the level of the market which you should concentrate on, it is its underlying fundamental's.
The market is simply a reflection of the overall economic situation, only in this case its value is artificially juiced by the fact that fixed income investments have been made a losing proposition.

The two factors that really need to be monitored are the interest rates and the chances of recession.
There is 0% chance of interest rates going down from here, and possibly a 50/50 chance of them increasing.  The chances of recession are growing every day as debt loads increase and world trade decreases.

Margin in the market has never been higher, and that is a big danger sign.  In addition, baby boomers who make up the largest demographic in the market have begun as of this year to be forced to make mandatory minimum withdrawals from their 401K's.  With millennial's financially struggling with student loans and almost a 3rd still living at home, it is doubtful they will be in position to purchase the equities that the boomers will be selling.

None of us can predict the future, but we all can assess the present and use critical thinking to calculate the most reasonable conclusion about what the evidence is telling us.... 

Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #241 on: June 20, 2016, 05:32:50 PM »
Mr. Positivity here... I've been hitting sell points on a lot of stocks I own in the past couple weeks. P/Es are way outside a "value" model and dividends have been chased lower, many below 3%, my cutoff for consideration.

I'm mildly fascinated with Verizon (VZ) if it can win its union fight (and the era of unions is as gone as Jimmy Hoffa) and the question of why AT&T (T) is able to keep a 4% dividend. Telecoms seem like an interesting sector.

I'll also say that I'm looking real hard at S&W (SWHC) due to political pressure.

In short, if you've been active you should be up about 30% in 2016 already. I'm keeping a lot of loose cash if I see these trades widen but the year is already a winner. I'm heavier cash right now than memory serves.

Not advice.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #242 on: June 24, 2016, 11:39:42 AM »
Mr. Positivity here... I've been hitting sell points on a lot of stocks I own in the past couple weeks. P/Es are way outside a "value" model and dividends have been chased lower, many below 3%, my cutoff for consideration.

I'm mildly fascinated with Verizon (VZ) if it can win its union fight (and the era of unions is as gone as Jimmy Hoffa) and the question of why AT&T (T) is able to keep a 4% dividend. Telecoms seem like an interesting sector.

I'll also say that I'm looking real hard at S&W (SWHC) due to political pressure.

In short, if you've been active you should be up about 30% in 2016 already. I'm keeping a lot of loose cash if I see these trades widen but the year is already a winner. I'm heavier cash right now than memory serves.

Not advice.

I got scared and just sold off my SWHC.  Made almost 14% - and thought best to quit while ahead.

Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #243 on: June 24, 2016, 12:36:32 PM »
I got scared and just sold off my SWHC.  Made almost 14% - and thought best to quit while ahead.

Better than a sharp stick in the eye! 14% is nothing to regret.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #244 on: June 24, 2016, 01:23:41 PM »
 9:30am - 393.16 (2.18%)
 9:31am - 419.08 (2.33%)
 9:32am - 486.19 (2.70%)
 9:33am - 497.66 (2.76%)
 9:33am - 532.35 (2.96%)
 9:42am - 435.55 (2.42%)
 9:51am - 448.32 (2.49%)
10:02am - 364.74 (2.03%)
10:58am - 398.33 (2.21%)
11:21am - 464.18 (2.58%)
11:24am - 481.06 (2.67%)
12:39pm - 499.99 (2.78%)
12:50pm - 531.77 (2.95%)
  1:07pm - 523.34 (2.91%)
  3:18pm - 639.88 (3.55%)

Cedar

Offline bigbear

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #245 on: June 24, 2016, 02:00:31 PM »
The day of Brexit -
The FTSE (main UK index) on 6/24... "only" down 3.15%. 

The DAX (main German index) on 6/24...  down 6.82%. 


Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #246 on: November 29, 2016, 07:54:04 AM »
It is over 19,000 now.... crash? Or will it hit 20,000?

Cedar

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #247 on: November 29, 2016, 10:24:02 AM »
It is over 19,000 now.... crash? Or will it hit 20,000?

Cedar

Remember, financial experts usually track the S&P500, as it's a more accurate baseline for tracking the overall US economy than the DJIA.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI&ei=Rbk9WPGTCcKJ2Aa355rACA

Offline surfivor

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #248 on: November 29, 2016, 11:21:40 AM »

 I've never really understood the stock market .. It often reminded me of some kind of modern astrology

Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #249 on: November 29, 2016, 11:35:27 AM »
You mean the industrials are being bidded up after a surprise election where the winning candidate claimed he'd rebuild our crumbling industry? I'm stunned.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #250 on: November 29, 2016, 12:34:44 PM »
I've never really understood the stock market .. It often reminded me of some kind of modern astrology

If you lived during ancient times, and your rulers made decisions regarding war/peace or when to harvest crops based on astrology, I bet you'd seek to understand it.

It might all be BS, but it impacts our lives just the same.

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #251 on: January 02, 2017, 02:26:30 PM »
19,819.60

Cedar

Offline bigbear

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Re: DOW broke 20,000
« Reply #252 on: January 25, 2017, 08:01:24 AM »
The Dow broke 20,000 this morning. 

Offline Cedar

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #253 on: January 26, 2017, 03:23:45 PM »
Yuppers

Cedar

osubuckeye4

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Re: DOW broke 20,000
« Reply #254 on: January 26, 2017, 03:40:09 PM »
The Dow broke 20,000 this morning.

Well, the race to 20 is over... DOW narrowly edged out the national debt. Nothing but smooth sailing from here on out.

#whatcouldpossiblygowrong

Offline bigbear

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #255 on: April 25, 2017, 01:20:49 PM »
DOW broke 21,000 today...  Up 250+ at this point.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #256 on: April 26, 2017, 02:02:36 PM »
DOW broke 21,000 today...  Up 250+ at this point.

I made some mild adjustments in the retirement accounts.  Whenever things go big quickly, I like to harvest a little off the top and keep it in a money market.  Then when things dip I've got a little cash to buy more cheap.  It's not fool proof, but it's easy to understand.

Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #257 on: September 11, 2017, 06:27:45 PM »
I've made a lot of money this summer trading the VXX intraday. It's been a buy/short pattern. High volatility. Trader's dream. I'm a bit worried about long term stability.

If anything I wrote above makes no sense, you probably shouldn't be in the stock market. If it does, you likely made the money too.

I am building a high dividend defensive position. I'll post more.

Offline CharlesH

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #258 on: September 11, 2017, 07:12:15 PM »
If anything I wrote above makes no sense, you probably shouldn't be in the stock market. If it does, you likely made the money too.
 
Oops.  35 years in the market.  Bought. Held. Re-balanced once a year.  And mistakenly made a ton of money.  Never heard of that stuff you mentioned.  Just think if I'd gotten this advice at 18 and spent the last three + decades in a passbook savings account... would I be even richer???

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #259 on: September 11, 2017, 07:18:40 PM »
 
Oops.  35 years in the market.  Bought. Held. Re-balanced once a year.  And mistakenly made a ton of money.  Never heard of that stuff you mentioned.

Me, too.  Except for the 35 part, I'm probably closer to 25 years.

Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #260 on: September 11, 2017, 07:40:55 PM »
 
Oops.  35 years in the market.  Bought. Held. Re-balanced once a year.  And mistakenly made a ton of money.  Never heard of that stuff you mentioned.  Just think if I'd gotten this advice at 18 and spent the last three + decades in a passbook savings account... would I be even richer???

Me, too.  Except for the 35 part, I'm probably closer to 25 years.

Please, please ignore what I have to say about markets and trading. It's meant for short term people. I'm nervous about 'get rich quick'. A long slow strategy is still the best. Sorry you misunderstood.

Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #261 on: September 11, 2017, 07:59:08 PM »
Of course as I think curiosity gets the better of me. I, too have a long term portfolio. I'm holding in it such names as Celanese (CE), Diageo (DEO), Con Ed (ED), Kimberly Clark (KMB), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and the Zweig Total Return (ZTR).

Curious what you guys are winning with.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #262 on: September 12, 2017, 01:06:10 AM »
If anything I wrote above makes no sense, you probably shouldn't be in the stock market.

See the problem with statements like that is it scares off a lot of good people who deserve the investment returns that are only available in the stock market. 

These returns are easily accessible to the rest of us in the form of stupid-simple index funds.  Absolutely no trading skills required.

Offline CharlesH

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #263 on: September 12, 2017, 04:20:59 AM »
Stupid simple index funds for me, too.  1/3+ S&P 500 and 1/3+ broader US Indexes and some broad internatoinal indexes.  As I approach 60 I have gradually moved towards having 1/4 in cash.  Once a year I rebalance everything to have the diversification I want.

Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #264 on: September 12, 2017, 05:13:41 AM »
See the problem with statements like that is it scares off a lot of good people who deserve the investment returns that are only available in the stock market. 

These returns are easily accessible to the rest of us in the form of stupid-simple index funds.  Absolutely no trading skills required.

Say no more. I'll be mum on markets. I can save it for my mastermind group. I apologized. I can't do anything more. I recant anything I posted about the stock market. Clearly I was wrong and what I wrote should have no bearing on anyone ever as I was sloppy and misunderstood relating a trading position to general investing. I was trying to briefly explain the high volatility of late and how my best trades have been long/short the ultrashort. I'll keep these opinions to myself in the future.

Offline RitaRose1945

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #265 on: September 12, 2017, 05:16:54 AM »
 :popcorn:

Paying attention because all I have now is a mutual fund that I don't/wont touch and a Stash account with about 1/3 each in Moderate Mix, On Cloud Nine (cloud tech company mix), and Defending America (aerospace and defense manufacturers).

osubuckeye4

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #266 on: September 12, 2017, 08:04:01 AM »
Say no more. I'll be mum on markets. I can save it for my mastermind group. I apologized. I can't do anything more. I recant anything I posted about the stock market. Clearly I was wrong and what I wrote should have no bearing on anyone ever as I was sloppy and misunderstood relating a trading position to general investing. I was trying to briefly explain the high volatility of late and how my best trades have been long/short the ultrashort. I'll keep these opinions to myself in the future.

You can take your fancy stock market lingo with you and....




(just trying to inject some humor)  8)


Offline bigbear

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #267 on: September 12, 2017, 12:46:05 PM »
Of course as I think curiosity gets the better of me. I, too have a long term portfolio. I'm holding in it such names as Celanese (CE), Diageo (DEO), Con Ed (ED), Kimberly Clark (KMB), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and the Zweig Total Return (ZTR).

Curious what you guys are winning with.

401k is health, tech, and div heavy.
As far as my small brokerage account - XOM, ADXS, KMI, DIS.  ADXS is a small biopharma.  Hoping for the ovarian cancer panacea...

Me, too.  Except for the 35 part, I'm probably closer to 25 years.

Freelancer - curious how you classify your bitcoin holdings?  Similar to any of the index funds held for 25 years?  "Cash"/bullion?  Doesn't matter? 

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #268 on: September 12, 2017, 01:06:32 PM »

Freelancer - curious how you classify your bitcoin holdings?  Similar to any of the index funds held for 25 years?  "Cash"/bullion?  Doesn't matter?

Bitcoin should be considered as FX trading in my opinion.  It's no more an investment than holding Euros, GBP or Yen, in place of US Dollars.
That said, many companies (my employer included) make insane amounts of profit by carefully pulling the levers on their foreign exchange adjustments.

Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #269 on: September 12, 2017, 01:27:07 PM »
(just trying to inject some humor)  8)

I appreciate it but I'm still done. After years of posting my own strategies and thoughts in an effort to help others it's a bit irritating to be told that my ideas are literally preventing people from achieving the results they rightly deserve. That's kind of a big statement and it will stick with me.

There are other groups I am part of who more openly discuss investing. I can go there. If the consensus around here is that educating oneself to better invest is a waste of time and one can do the same with index funds, that's fine with me. Hell, I own a few that fit very specific metrics and offer something unique to my portfolio. But that involves reading the prospectus and quarterly reports and doing homework on the manager(s) so it likely won't be a popular strategy.

I've always felt that wealth building is an integral part of survival. But it's something I can do outside this forum. And that's fine.