Author Topic: DOW broke 17,000  (Read 71247 times)

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #270 on: September 12, 2017, 02:58:33 PM »
But that involves reading the prospectus and quarterly reports and doing homework on the manager(s) so it likely won't be a popular strategy.


sounds like a fantasy football draft

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #271 on: September 12, 2017, 11:53:51 PM »
Freelancer - curious how you classify your bitcoin holdings?  Similar to any of the index funds held for 25 years?  "Cash"/bullion?  Doesn't matter?

I classify it as the type of asset you'd only risk 1-2% of your net worth on and just hold it for the next 10 years.
23:57:30

Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #272 on: September 13, 2017, 06:59:12 AM »
A pile of dollars, euros, yen, yuan, Swiss franks, etc. would be savings. A pile of Bitcoin is an asset and an investment because it's... a... currency.
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Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #273 on: September 13, 2017, 12:03:12 PM »
A pile of dollars, euros, yen, yuan, Swiss franks, etc. would be savings. A pile of Bitcoin is an asset and an investment because it's... a... currency.

please paraphrase

All you listed are currencies of a sort.  If you need to use a given currency for daily subsistence (paying rent, buying food), an accumulation of that currency is savings in my simple mind.

If I own a bit coin, and need to buy a month of groceries at CostCo, that's not immediately useful before I liquidate and convert to USD.

Offline bigbear

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #274 on: September 13, 2017, 12:35:34 PM »
I appreciate it but I'm still done. After years of posting my own strategies and thoughts in an effort to help others it's a bit irritating to be told that my ideas are literally preventing people from achieving the results they rightly deserve. That's kind of a big statement and it will stick with me.

There are other groups I am part of who more openly discuss investing. I can go there. If the consensus around here is that educating oneself to better invest is a waste of time and one can do the same with index funds, that's fine with me. Hell, I own a few that fit very specific metrics and offer something unique to my portfolio. But that involves reading the prospectus and quarterly reports and doing homework on the manager(s) so it likely won't be a popular strategy.

I've always felt that wealth building is an integral part of survival. But it's something I can do outside this forum. And that's fine.

My thoughts:  Agreed that it's an integral part of survival.  Most here seem to like index funds that's a completely legit thought process.  Some like to/have the ability to go a bit further.  I would hope readers know who they are.  They are reading some random dudes thoughts on the internet.  For all I know you're Sue from Zambia offering investment advice based results of chicken sacrifices to a fetish.

I know I'm not the arbitrage guy.  I'm not the options trader.  I'm not a day trader.  I'm not a swing trader.  I have no system other than try not to follow my emotions.  The shortest I've held a stock was about 6 months.  The longest has been about 10 years (pretty my stock ownership lifetime - KMR/KMI).  I especially like hearing others thought on trends, sector expectations, etc... 

What sites/forums do you use for investment talk?  Ihub?

I classify it as the type of asset you'd only risk 1-2% of your net worth on and just hold it for the next 10 years.

That's how I would classify it too.  Essentially a high risk/high reward like a long term call or put option.

please paraphrase

All you listed are currencies of a sort.  If you need to use a given currency for daily subsistence (paying rent, buying food), an accumulation of that currency is savings in my simple mind.

If I own a bit coin, and need to buy a month of groceries at CostCo, that's not immediately useful before I liquidate and convert to USD.

He was being sarcastic pointing out an inconsistency between bitcoin's desire to be considered a currency and the reality of how people who own bitcoin view in their portfolio.
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Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #275 on: September 13, 2017, 12:38:24 PM »
please paraphrase

All you listed are currencies of a sort.  If you need to use a given currency for daily subsistence (paying rent, buying food), an accumulation of that currency is savings in my simple mind.

If I own a bit coin, and need to buy a month of groceries at CostCo, that's not immediately useful before I liquidate and convert to USD.

True. But you could say the same thing about any foreign currency. My point was to show how Bitcoin is perceived as both a currency and an investment, but never savings which is the only thing held currency can be. Nobody calls their bank account an investment.
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Offline bigbear

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #276 on: September 29, 2017, 11:02:12 AM »
Dow's over 22,000.  Closed at an all time high yesterday.  "They" say it's related to tax reform expectations.  Guess we'll see over the next few months...
"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom."
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Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #277 on: October 03, 2017, 11:23:26 AM »
remember folks, DIJA != US economy

It's just an index of traditional stocks that hold sentimental value.

The S&P 500 is much closer to an index of reality

Offline David in MN

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #278 on: October 19, 2017, 03:07:53 PM »
If it sounds like Klingon, just ignore it. If you think me some financial wizard, bear in mind I'm essentially a 1950s housewife. I literally have a cheesecake in the oven. I'll even double down by admitting I have never successfully called a top. I am much better at the math for finding a bottom.

The Dow, Nas, and S&P are all up amazingly this year. And from what we read confidence is at an all-time high.

All traders follow the VXX. The VXX is the ticker symbol to buy in to profit from volatility. In a nutshell it tracks the CBOE VIX futures. If that means nothing to you, you're not alone. In English that means the more volatile the market, the higher the VIX, the higher the VXX. Basically if you're in turbulent times buying the VXX is a defensive strategy.

In the past 5 years the VXX has gone from ~$800 to ~$34.

What does this mean? It means that the market is doing what a lot of experts tell you it does. Buy a broad fund and hold and watch it slowly chug up. Slow, sustained, boring growth. Essentially the market is doing what every 401 investor loves. Traders like me hate it. We prefer high volatility where short term buying and shorting yield quick explosive returns. We don't care if the market is up or down as long as it moves quick.

But there's another interpretation. We're watching the value set a record high while the risk is priced at a record low!!!! Said differently, that like the market is telling us that not only do we have record highs but we deserved them. That 23,000 is just a stepping stone as this trend will continue.

Wait? Low volatility? Toys R Us just filed bankruptcy. Sears is going down. P&G is in a proxy fight (I will invest if they LOSE, Peltz is correct). The food companies are almost universally down. Sure the FANG look pretty good (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) but this market is so overhyped that Blue Apron and Snapchat got listed. No way they should be public and only a dolt would invest. Pets.com all over again.

OK, I'm coming off like Zerohedge or Peter Schiff. But it sure feels like casino day in the market right now. Buy the Dow, buy tech, buy Bitcoin. It's all going to the moon and can't be stopped.

I'm not financial advice. Just throwing some pasta against the wall.
Livin on a thin line, tell me now what are we supposed to do?

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #279 on: October 19, 2017, 03:42:57 PM »
MongDB (NASDAQ:MDB) went IPO today.

Unreal they closed above $32 with an opening at $24.  I think they are a mediocre tech company, and they certainly don't have the best revenue model among their competitors.
Insiders say the IPO was a desperate play to get additional funding.  Think we should short this one...

Offline osubuckeye4

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Re: DOW broke 17,000
« Reply #280 on: October 20, 2017, 07:43:22 AM »
If it sounds like Klingon, just ignore it. If you think me some financial wizard, bear in mind I'm essentially a 1950s housewife. I literally have a cheesecake in the oven. I'll even double down by admitting I have never successfully called a top. I am much better at the math for finding a bottom.

The Dow, Nas, and S&P are all up amazingly this year. And from what we read confidence is at an all-time high.

All traders follow the VXX. The VXX is the ticker symbol to buy in to profit from volatility. In a nutshell it tracks the CBOE VIX futures. If that means nothing to you, you're not alone. In English that means the more volatile the market, the higher the VIX, the higher the VXX. Basically if you're in turbulent times buying the VXX is a defensive strategy.

In the past 5 years the VXX has gone from ~$800 to ~$34.

What does this mean? It means that the market is doing what a lot of experts tell you it does. Buy a broad fund and hold and watch it slowly chug up. Slow, sustained, boring growth. Essentially the market is doing what every 401 investor loves. Traders like me hate it. We prefer high volatility where short term buying and shorting yield quick explosive returns. We don't care if the market is up or down as long as it moves quick.

But there's another interpretation. We're watching the value set a record high while the risk is priced at a record low!!!! Said differently, that like the market is telling us that not only do we have record highs but we deserved them. That 23,000 is just a stepping stone as this trend will continue.

Wait? Low volatility? Toys R Us just filed bankruptcy. Sears is going down. P&G is in a proxy fight (I will invest if they LOSE, Peltz is correct). The food companies are almost universally down. Sure the FANG look pretty good (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) but this market is so overhyped that Blue Apron and Snapchat got listed. No way they should be public and only a dolt would invest. Pets.com all over again.

OK, I'm coming off like Zerohedge or Peter Schiff. But it sure feels like casino day in the market right now. Buy the Dow, buy tech, buy Bitcoin. It's all going to the moon and can't be stopped.

I'm not financial advice. Just throwing some pasta against the wall.

I believe the main reason volatility is so low, despite surging prices, is actually two reasons.

First, central bank interference (SNB in particular)... they're pumping billions of dollars into tech and blue chip stocks and are pretty much pot committed to needing the strategy to succeed in order to hedge against NIRP/ZIRP policies that are returning no or negative yield.

Second, it's no secret that most high volume/big money human brokers are long gone. They've been replaced by "buy the dip" algo's that are just following what the other algo's are doing and piggybacking like parasites off the backs of the reckless central banks.


As long as central banks keep interfering, there's no real incentive for the algo's to dump because they know the banks are pot committed and additional money is going to keep being pumped in.




It's funny, people in my circle look into what I'm saying and start to freak out when they realize what is going on. First, it's generally, "central banks can't invest in the stock market" and then they look into it and see what's happening and the response immediately turns too, "wow, it's totally rigged!!!Does this mean I just withdraw everything!?!?!"

No... definitely not.

The bottom might fall out tomorrow, or it might be a decade from now after all the rest of the central banks have taken turns dipping their toes in the DOW casino and there's no more left to pump.


My advice to anyone (and I'm not a licensed broker (but I did stay at a Holiday Express last night), so take it with a handful of salt)...

Ride the wave, but make sure you're smart about it. Set up stop-on-quotes so that if the algo's all decide to turn in the other direction at the crack of dawn one morning, you're not waking up to utter catastrophe. As long as you do that, and you keep a diversified portfolio that isn't 100% tied to the market, you should be way better off than most when the rug is pulled out. (and that's not a question of if, it's a matter of when)


Like I said earlier though... this could be the end and tomorrow could be the day it crashes, or, it could be the middle and we could have years of this as other central banks all start jumping headfirst into the pool. Don't get out now... but do have your parachute set to deploy when the party officially ends.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2017, 07:49:22 AM by osubuckeye4 »