Author Topic: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?  (Read 17919 times)

Offline Carl

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #30 on: September 21, 2016, 02:13:12 PM »
As far as your concern about your neighborhood going downhill, where in America aren't they? We live in a small town of 1200, nearest big city is about 50,000 and 20 miles away. The closest interstate is over 20 miles away and we are on the way to nowhere anyone wants to get to. It is 99.9% caucasian, $50,000 average yearly family income, stable job market, excellent education facilities..... across the street from us there have been 2 drug busts in the last several years involving heroin. Meth labs are a major problem in the rural county. There are home invasions..... you get the picture? This is epidemic in this country, the kind of stuff that use to happen only in the seedy parts of big cities is all over. You can't get away from it, you have to get involved in your community to rescue it. Do not keep your head down, get around town and look for opportunities to challenge decadence. Go city council meetings, join the volunteer fire department, start a neighborhood watch program. (I'm doing some of this stuff now, and more).

Smurf Hunter is actually quite active with neighborhood watch Scouting ,Ham radio and as a volunteer CERT (Citizens Emergency Response Team) etc and this actually expose an observant person to a bit of overload.Few people get exposed to the level of crime in even small towns....I think it is mostly due to the man separating  the people from religion

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #31 on: September 21, 2016, 06:27:19 PM »
Smurf Hunter is actually quite active with neighborhood watch Scouting ,Ham radio and as a volunteer CERT (Citizens Emergency Response Team) etc and this actually expose an observant person to a bit of overload.Few people get exposed to the level of crime in even small towns....I think it is mostly due to the man separating  the people from religion

It's possible I'm OVER aware of things and it's causing me undue stress.  If I had my head someplace else, I'd probably be more relaxed :D

On Monday there was a bank robbery across the street from the supermarket I frequent.

Today (Wednesday) there was a bank robbery at a different bank, that shares the same parking lot as out city EOC (emergency operations center where CERT/ham and others meet regularly), and a block from city hall and the police station.  This robbery ended in a gun battle, with the suspect shot.  I'm waiting to hear if I know the officer involved.

Neither of these events make my family necessarily less safe, but it does build up emotionally I suppose.  Maybe I should watch more TV or play Xbox?

Offline Carl

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #32 on: September 21, 2016, 06:35:19 PM »
It's possible I'm OVER aware of things and it's causing me undue stress.  If I had my head someplace else, I'd probably be more relaxed :D

On Monday there was a bank robbery across the street from the supermarket I frequent.

Today (Wednesday) there was a bank robbery at a different bank, that shares the same parking lot as out city EOC (emergency operations center where CERT/ham and others meet regularly), and a block from city hall and the police station.  This robbery ended in a gun battle, with the suspect shot.  I'm waiting to hear if I know the officer involved.

Neither of these events make my family necessarily less safe, but it does build up emotionally I suppose.  Maybe I should watch more TV or play Xbox?

Try some diversion to take your mind off you areas trouble.Trouble won't go away,but you might feel better.

Richard (richard)

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #33 on: September 21, 2016, 07:47:33 PM »
I humbly retract my advice.

Offline racer038

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #34 on: September 21, 2016, 08:07:46 PM »
Here in Kentucky  / Indiana, rental costs are higher than ownership, when comparing apples to apples.  I can really only see one universal advantage of renting:  you are not tied down.  In a recession, owning ones house can reduce versatility in looking for a job.  A family's possibilities are limitless when not anchored to a home that won't sell.  Look at this from a relocation perspective.  If you are tied to the area in such a way that you would not relocate to find work in a recession, stay where you are.  Of course, keep an eye on the # of rental homes within a 1/2 mile radius of your current home.  If more and more homes are being purchased as rentals, the writing may be on the wall. 

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #35 on: September 21, 2016, 08:39:40 PM »
I humbly retract my advice.

No worries my friend.  Your advice is probably applicable to 9 of 10 people out there.  I'm the lone weirdo  :o

Offline Jeremy Downing

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #36 on: September 22, 2016, 04:09:05 AM »
Smurf,

Do you like living in WA? Would you pick that state if you could live anywhere? I ask in part because I look at WA as a possible place to settle. From a distance their balance of freedoms, tax burdens, landscape and climate seem a potential fit for my family.

Offline CarbideAndIron

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #37 on: September 22, 2016, 07:03:31 AM »
Today (Wednesday) there was a bank robbery at a different bank, that shares the same parking lot as out city EOC (emergency operations center where CERT/ham and others meet regularly), and a block from city hall and the police station.  This robbery ended in a gun battle, with the suspect shot.  I'm waiting to hear if I know the officer involved.

I work in your town, commute here from a close, small town in Pierce Co. It's getting bad around here. Between the huge population influx (which brings traffic, crime, etc...), and the very high rent rates, the family and I are planning on heading to the CDA/Spokane area after we sell. The rent is WAY higher than my mortgage, and we are sick of the area.

Smurf,

Do you like living in WA? Would you pick that state if you could live anywhere? I ask in part because I look at WA as a possible place to settle. From a distance their balance of freedoms, tax burdens, landscape and climate seem a potential fit for my family.

Jeremy,
My .02$. This is a very beautiful place to live, with very mild climate. I have lived here the majority of my life, and it's changing for the worse. Unless you move here from LA or NYC, you'll probably find the traffic and cost of living in western WA to be awful. Eastern WA is like a totally different state pretty much. Definitely come visit and look into housing, etc...before moving to western Wa.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #38 on: September 22, 2016, 09:43:38 AM »
Smurf,

Do you like living in WA? Would you pick that state if you could live anywhere? I ask in part because I look at WA as a possible place to settle. From a distance their balance of freedoms, tax burdens, landscape and climate seem a potential fit for my family.

+1 to what CarbideAndIron posted

That said, there's a lot of rural/secluded locations in western WA too.  The Olympia peninsula, Kitsap, San Juan Islands...
The downside is those locations are difficult to get too, as you either need to drive around to a land bridge or take a ferry boat to get to the population centers.
There's some beautiful property with marine views and even waterfront available inexpensively.  That wouldn't work if I had to commute into the city, but if I was retired or otherwise self-sufficient, I might strongly consider something on the west side of Puget Sound.

While I favor the politics and culture of Spokane/CDL, I like the green trees and blue oceans enough to make it tough to leave this region.

"politics" is an interesting factor.  You can look at the political views of a population, and you can look at the actual laws/taxes/regulations in place.
Taxes are creeping, more so in metro areas, but for the moment WA is relatively relaxed for a lot of regulations.  Then again, my baseline is CA, so maybe I'm not a good source.

My experience has been in lightly populated areas, living around pseudo-socialists is completely different than inside an urban area.
Personally I don't need my neighbors to agree or think like me.  I only object when my liberties are threatened.

Offline Jeremy Downing

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #39 on: September 22, 2016, 10:21:20 AM »
Thanks Smurf and Carbide.

My wife and I are planning a trip to explore the Seattle area next summer. We explored Denver this summer and Austin a couple years before. I have a suspicion I'll fall in love with the area because it's full of stuff I enjoy, green trees, mountains, ocean, coffee...  Also, I'm a firmware/software/electrical engineer and she's an accountant so finding work there 'shouldn't' be too big a deal.

The visit will help us figure it out.

Of note, I thought I would love Denver and did not. Too damned dry. I didn't think I would like Austin and loved it. Had a blast in Austin.

Who knows?  :)

Offline CarbideAndIron

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #40 on: September 22, 2016, 11:31:20 AM »
Thanks Smurf and Carbide.

My wife and I are planning a trip to explore the Seattle area next summer. We explored Denver this summer and Austin a couple years before. I have a suspicion I'll fall in love with the area because it's full of stuff I enjoy, green trees, mountains, ocean, coffee...  Also, I'm a firmware/software/electrical engineer and she's an accountant so finding work there 'shouldn't' be too big a deal.

The visit will help us figure it out.

Of note, I thought I would love Denver and did not. Too damned dry. I didn't think I would like Austin and loved it. Had a blast in Austin.

Who knows?  :)

Lots of jobs in your industry on the east side of Seattle. Bellevue/Redmond area. 15 miles towards the Cascades from there, and you could be living in some really beautiful foot hills. You will probably like it here.
My favorite thing about here, is that I'm 30min from work, and a short drive the opposite direction puts me pretty far into the woods with no one around.

Offline 12th man

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #41 on: September 26, 2016, 01:52:45 PM »
thought about renting your house?

Not sure how far north you are...i am south of Salem. I wound up renting my last house out because selling it would only let me break even. This turned out to be a great investment, or has so far. Rent is going up around here pretty fast, nothing like Portland, but still fast. Not sure what going on further north. Also property values have risen to the highest i have see yet and are predicted to keep going up. i dont think this can hold much longer, wages, at least in this area, are not going up very fast. I think we will see another downturn in the next few years. I hope to sell in a couple years before that happens, sit on the money, then reinvest after RE goes down. But, whatever happens, if i were to have sold it 4 years ago i would have gotten nothing. and that is my long winded point. What you are really risking is what profit you can get from selling the house. keep in mind that you will wind up spending 10% of the total sell price on brokers and closing costs.

Anyways here are a few things i have learned that might help you if you were thinking about renting out your place...

run through a fake tax year to see what renting will do for you. you cannot deduct your mortgage, only the interest. Depreciation is only on the value of your house, not property and goes back to the original purchase valve if it is lower than the current value. You can wind up paying to rent your house out in some cases.

you can also simply run through a tax scenario where you sell, its different if you sell  a rental. you will be subject to capital gains, but its not actually that bad. it is a sliding scale and if you income is not very high you may not pay anything at all.

Learn rental laws. there are free guides out there. its not complicated, but #1 always always always get 1st and last months rent. this is so you can get paid rent (from the last month's prepayment you got) while going thru the 30 day eviction process. And watch out for bankruptcy. theoretically a renter who declares bankruptcy can live in your house rent free until the bankruptcy is complete. I put a clause in my rental contract, hopefully i never have to see if it will hold up.

If you want to pull any money out of the house (HELOC or loan) do it before you move out. Once you rent it this is pretty much out of the question.

if you have any questions about this kind of thing, i would be happy to try and answer them.

HEROIN - truly the work of the devil. it is now the cheapest high out there. i think we are going to  see alot more young people dying from this in the near term. I have done a bit of research on it lately as a young family member of mine has gotten caught up in it. It consumes it's user. i believe the best chance is immediate inpatient care. This country is not prepared for that. there are places out there, but just try and get in. I did (not for me) it doesn't work. they are already overloaded. i think these places are like most retirement homes (senior care facilities). Glorified feed lots run for profit and staffed by underpaid, under qualified personnel that really could care less. (no offense if you are one of the few that do care)

Offline notmyrealname

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #42 on: October 10, 2016, 12:13:34 PM »
Home invasions + heroin addicts = GTFO.

Just what I would do. I would not want to stick around there.  Haven't read the whole thread, but YES, I would get out.  Find a safer neighborhood, and don't wait around to see what happens.

osubuckeye4

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #43 on: October 11, 2016, 07:38:42 AM »
Home invasions + heroin addicts = GTFO.

Just what I would do. I would not want to stick around there.  Haven't read the whole thread, but YES, I would get out.  Find a safer neighborhood, and don't wait around to see what happens.

If you're trying to escape heroin OD's... good luck, that's everywhere these days  :(


The home invasions are another matter. That's definitely more concerning and shows that the police and community could be losing control of the neighborhood.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #44 on: October 11, 2016, 07:42:43 AM »
If you're trying to escape heroin OD's... good luck, that's everywhere these days  :(


The home invasions are another matter. That's definitely more concerning and shows that the police and community could be losing control of the neighborhood.

In a city of 80,000 residents, a home invasion every other month is statistically nothing - but we're SO networked with neighborhood groups on social media, police apps on our phones, etc.  I literally get alerted to every serious crime, so it's very present in my mind.

Last week a 17 year old was shot dead sitting in a parked car.  They apprehended a perp.  Say it's gang related.  I guess that should make us feel better, as they don't target innocent citizens?

osubuckeye4

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #45 on: October 11, 2016, 10:48:57 AM »
In a city of 80,000 residents, a home invasion every other month is statistically nothing - but we're SO networked with neighborhood groups on social media, police apps on our phones, etc.  I literally get alerted to every serious crime, so it's very present in my mind.

Last week a 17 year old was shot dead sitting in a parked car.  They apprehended a perp.  Say it's gang related.  I guess that should make us feel better, as they don't target innocent citizens?

Yea, you need to do that balancing act of assessing legitimate risk, while not letting the ease of access to information overwhelm you.


Living on the outskirts of Chicago, I see a ton of it out here. Some of my friends choose to move into horrible neighborhoods because they figure the price is good and nothing bad could happen to them (ignoring legitimate risk). Others are living in $600,000 condos in affluent north side neighborhoods and are legitimately freaking out about the shootings on the south side (information overload, choose to create risk where little exists), which might not be THAT far distance wise... but culture/risk wise are basically a world away from where they are.

Offline msparks

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #46 on: November 28, 2016, 10:38:09 AM »
I'm not in constant fear, but the area is in decline.

I was wondering about cap gains.  Lived here since 2007 and high estimate is about 30K less than we paid back then.
So while I've built up equity from paying the mortgage, I think on paper I'd have a loss, and I could reserve my one time gain for later.

I don't really want to rent, and we do have dogs.  My thinking is we could liquidate this place, horde some cash and wait for an opportunity to buy several months later as needed.

If you have the potential to move and see your current area declining then selling only makes sense. Having cash to make it through an upcoming decline only makes sense. I wouldn't call it hording though, but having 6 months to one year in cash is really just a cautions  thing to do.

Our area is actaully pretty stable and they are still building, but most of the houses in our area are 2500 sq/ft or larger. We're sitting right at 1100 and there are not that many of our type of house in this area. We're planning on a cash out refi very soon as we have about $60 in equity.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: sell my house and rent in anticipation of declining property value?
« Reply #47 on: November 28, 2016, 11:15:06 AM »
If you have the potential to move and see your current area declining then selling only makes sense. Having cash to make it through an upcoming decline only makes sense. I wouldn't call it hording though, but having 6 months to one year in cash is really just a cautions  thing to do.

Our area is actaully pretty stable and they are still building, but most of the houses in our area are 2500 sq/ft or larger. We're sitting right at 1100 and there are not that many of our type of house in this area. We're planning on a cash out refi very soon as we have about $60 in equity.

Too late.  Refinanced down to a 20 year loan (was 30).  Only save $150/month, but building equity faster.