Author Topic: High wind warning October 11-17 for OR and WA  (Read 18775 times)

Offline Cedar

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High wind warning October 11-17 for OR and WA
« on: October 12, 2016, 02:59:10 AM »
:   High Wind Warning for Oregon and Washington , most areas, I only posted one.


Alert:   
...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
 
.A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES INLAND OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT. WHILE GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS, DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. (And inland from other warnings)
 
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY...
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
 
* WINDS...SOUTH 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
HEADLANDS AND EXPOSED AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD
SEE GUSTS 60 TO 80 MPH.
 
* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
 
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE...BROOKINGS...PORT ORFORD...GOLD BEACH...
BANDON...AND EXPOSED AREAS OF HIGHWAY 101
 
* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS COULD DAMAGE TREES AND CAUSE POWER
INTERRUPTIONS...AND UNSECURED OBJECTS MAY BE LOST OR DAMAGED.
TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 101 MAY BECOME DIFFICULT OR HAZARDOUS...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
Instructions:   A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED


Edit by Mr. Bill: updated dates in Subject line
« Last Edit: October 15, 2016, 01:04:01 PM by Mr. Bill »

Offline Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2016, 08:46:16 AM »
OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY: ANOTHER STORM WITH STRONGER AND POTENTIALLY
MORE DAMAGING WINDS IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY. Going to effect western Oregon and Washington state.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2016, 07:20:44 AM »
Rain started at midnight. Made preparations of laid in food, water, radio charged, getting extra fuel, and plans to BO with friends with a whole house generator, and friendship if this gets bad. Canceled my birthday party so people are not on the road.

Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2016, 07:40:44 AM »

Offline CarbideAndIron

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2016, 07:55:37 AM »
Wow, it's been really mild here so far. I'm east of Tacoma towards Rainier. Seems like every time we get these advisories, it's never as severe as said to be up here. We get regular strong winds up here on the plateau.
They claim the worst should be over by early Friday, not sure what day you had your bday party planned. We got my son's 1st bday planned for Saturday afternoon, so hopefully it'll all be clear by then.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2016, 10:17:13 AM »
I drove my kids to school (south king co.)  before dawn.  No wind issues, but heavy rain and low visibility.  Witness a couple minor collisions around the I-5 & I-405 junction.

Saturday is potentially the BIG storm to worry about.

Offline Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2016, 12:03:57 PM »
No way Nd yet, at least half a inch of snow white n so nice 7am

Cedar

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2016, 12:07:26 PM »
I think Cedar is having an autocorrect moment. :spit:

Offline Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2016, 12:23:25 PM »
Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ORC011-015-019-029-033-035-037-CAC049-093-132233-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD, OR
333 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016

Hydrologic Outlook for significant rises on rivers and streams in
Sisikyou and Modoc counties in California and Coos, Curry, Douglas,
Jackson, Josephine, Klamath and Lake counties in Oregon.

.A series of storms will move through the region beginning Thursday.
A strong jet stream stretching across the Pacific Ocean will bring
a steady stream of moisture into the Pacific Northwest with these
storms. This will result in heavy rainfall across the region. The
heaviest rainfall will be with the storm on Saturday as the remnants
of Typhoon Songda are pulled into the stream. Rainfall amounts of
over 6 inches at the coast and western Siskiyou county,to over
thirteen inches on the extreme southern coast can be expected
through Monday. Three to six inches can be expected inland to the
Cascades with one to two inches east of the Cascades from Thursday
to Monday. These forecast totals across the region are equal to or
higher than the totals normally seen through the entire month of
October.

While main stem rivers will experience significant rises due to
these storms, they are not expected to flood. Small streams and
urban areas could experience high water or even flooding where there
is poor drainage. As this is the first large storm of the rainy
season, there is the potential for debris to clog storm drains,
ditches and culverts resulting in flooding.

Another concern is the heavy rain falling on recent burn scars. If
you live downstream of a recent burn scar, or if you are just
driving through a burn scar, stay alert as there is a high risk of
flash flooding and debris flows in and below burned areas.

The exact scenario for flooding and high water remains uncertain.
This product will be updated as necessary. Watches and warnings may
be issued by the National Weather Service if this situation worsens.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2016, 12:25:12 PM »
I think Cedar is having an autocorrect moment. :spit:


Offline Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2016, 12:37:29 PM »
I loathe my Phone.

Half inch rain since this morning. 6-13 inches coming

Cedar

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2016, 01:30:19 PM »
Here's the Western Washington version of the forecast:

High Wind Warning 431 AM PDT THU OCT 13 2016 and Special Weather Statement 828 AM PDT THU OCT 13 2016

Some highlights:

Quote
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING STORM TO AFFECT WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF THE LOW CENTER DIRECTLY CROSSING SOME PART OF THE CENTRAL OR NORTH COAST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS WOULD BE A WORST CASE SCENARIO LEADING TO A HISTORICAL WINDSTORM FOR NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THAT WOULD BE LONG REMEMBERED.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2016, 01:36:33 PM »
From my city EOC director:

Quote
Hi Team-
As I am sure you know by now, we are in for some impressive weather this weekend. The first storm has already started, with high winds arriving later this afternoon and evening. This will be a moderate storm for us, though with the trees at full foliage, could be damaging.

The bigger storm arrives Saturday, with a low pressure area that could reach record low. The models differ on the storm track. If the European model has it correct, the storm track will go right through Puget Sound, bringing record breaking winds and associated damage. If the North American model has it correct, the storm will track off the coast, and that will result in winds more like a typical storm we get a few times any year. (Note, just got the updated weather briefing, and the models are now in alignment, showing a track over the sound. However, the storm is still 5000 miles away, so the track may yet change).

Should we get the worst case scenario, we can expect a lot of downed trees and wide spread power outages. We may need to activate the EOC, and if so, we would want to receive neighborhood damage reports from the team. The repeater may needed to help with communications, and as you know, it has not been reliable about starting. I have a plan to rewire the start circuits to make it more reliable, but that won't happen before this weekend. I will test the generator later today. We may need to brief a couple of you on how to reset the generator if it fails to start (any one interested?).

Personally, I planned this well. I am leaving on vacation Saturday morning between storms.

Offline archer

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Offline Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2016, 06:16:33 PM »
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
249 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2016

...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
UP THE OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE LATER THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND FAR NORTH
OREGON COAST WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY.

NEXT ROUND OF WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY...AS A VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO
BRING VERY DAMAGING WINDS TO THE COASTAL AREAS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY TO INLAND AREAS. DETAILS STILL IN FLUX
BUT TAKE TIME NOW TO PREPARE FOR DISRUPTIONS IN TRAFFIC AND POWER
GRIDS.



Offline Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2016, 06:18:04 PM »
OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY: POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS 75 TO 90 MPH ON
  EXPOSED HIGHER RIDGES.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2016, 07:54:32 PM »
next report: cougar, toutle, estacada, lane county
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS 55 TO 65 MPH. BUT HIGHER
RIDGES AND PEAKS OF THE CASCADES COULD SEE GUSTS 80 TO 100 MPH.
WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2016, 09:00:56 PM »
103 mph cape nearest. 8pm the first winds hit here, slammed my abode, made my heart jump

Cedar

Offline mxitman

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2016, 10:27:11 PM »
were bugging out tomorrow (friday) we have some huge tree's near the house that are suspect. 150-200' Doug Firs & Hemlocks that are about 6-8' at the base... not taking any chances so were going to stay with some friends for the weekend. Hopefully it's all for not but a nice getaway.

Hope everyone stays safe... Cheers!

Offline Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2016, 01:34:39 AM »
12:30am woke up as rains stopped. Friend who is on the road, reporting trees down in Sandy, no rain/wind in Redmond. I never got wind.

Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2016, 02:27:11 AM »
We are out of power.

Offline Carl

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2016, 02:55:50 AM »
I hope you West coasters fair well,though already more deaths are reported than the east coast hurricane.
I wonder how those wind farms are working now that they have enough wind?

Offline Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #22 on: October 14, 2016, 05:52:02 AM »
4:30am. Woke up as rains started again. Found out this is the leftovers from super typhoon Songda.
15,000 without power Gearhart, Hammond, seaside..
4:50am I might be getting some wind

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2016, 08:52:29 AM »
In the last 24 hrs, the rain amounts are:

Brookings 8 inches
Portland 1.3"
At my place 3"
Salem 2.3"
Florence 4"

And it is still coming down. I am getting winds, but they are not too bad currently. As I type this rain has really intensified
Cedar

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #24 on: October 14, 2016, 08:56:27 AM »
I just arrived at my office.  The Sounder commuter train running north from Tacoma to Seattle (I don't ride it) was severely delayed due to the train tracks being underwater in places.  The train is forced to idle at single digits rate of speed (usually 75mph) so there were about 5 trains worth of people standing in the rain this morning at the station.

So far no notably high winds in SE part of Puget Sound, but it is pouring rain.

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #25 on: October 14, 2016, 08:58:39 AM »
TORNADO warning for Washington state right above Astoria right now

Cedar

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #26 on: October 14, 2016, 09:07:54 AM »


The Pacific coast is about to get spanked.  Notice that long column of precipitation west of Aberdeen.

Offline Cedar

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #27 on: October 14, 2016, 09:11:01 AM »
0751 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016

   VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEAR COASTAL WA/NWRN ORE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SMALL SUPERCELLS SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE...NEARLY ZONAL...AND LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS
   EVIDENT OVER MOST OF CONUS...WITH TWO NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS...

   1.  STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE PAC NW WITH EMBEDDED
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED W OF OLYMPIC PENINSULA AS OF
   12Z.  THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY RAPIDLY AFTER IT MOVES
   ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND...THEN MOVES INLAND MAINLAND BC THROUGH
   PERIOD.  HEIGHTS WILL RISE AFTER 18Z OVER MUCH OF WA/ORE...AND EVEN
   LATE IN PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SUBSTANTIAL PAC PERTURBATION TO
   AFFECT THIS AREA ON DAY 2.

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #28 on: October 14, 2016, 09:39:37 AM »
8:25 am | Report of tornado damage in Manzanita, OR via law enforcement. With threat for more storms, remain alert to weather!

Scanner: tornado has destroyed numerous buildings & knocked down 80 trees in Manzanita. Power being shut off to town

HWY 101 closed in that area.

Tornado warning for Clatsop, Tillamook counties

Cedar
« Last Edit: October 14, 2016, 09:54:38 AM by Cedar »

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Re: High wind warning October 11-14 for OR and WA
« Reply #29 on: October 14, 2016, 09:59:58 AM »
Scanner:preparing to search destroyed structures for people; medics responding for medical assistance in Manzanita

Cedar