Author Topic: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?  (Read 13676 times)

osubuckeye4

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #30 on: January 13, 2017, 10:16:04 AM »

Oh, an olive branch. Nice to have someone else reading the futures markets. Proximity to the CBOT perhaps?  ;)

I wouldn't go far as to say I sit down and really read them in great detail.... more like glance from time to time just to make sure a freight train isn't about to run me and my family over.  8)

I'm noticing the same general things you are.


I fully agree that oil, like steam engines and whale oil, will be replaced. I don't know how but we seem to be good at that historically. To argue that humanity will evolve past oil seems so obvious it would be a forgone conclusion. But I also don't think oil will be so scarce we put jars of it on the shelf as decoration.

I'm not necessarily convinced oil will be "replaced"... so much as, if we do ever manage to hit "peak oil" (if there is such a thing), then the market will adjust to meet the need, and non-oil alternatives will present themselves along with the oil-based products offered. You'll see prices shift to accommodate the resources available. That seems to always be what happens historically, I don't see why oil would be different.


Put it this way... if we hit peak oil, we'll see the automotive industry shift to producing more electric cars. thus driving down the price considerably. Gas guzzling Suburban's are going to cost $220,000... whereas Tesla's will cost $35,000 just because there are going to be millions of people lined up to buy Teslas and very few people in the market for Suburban's and their unsustainable gas prices.


We're kind of already seeing the market take care of this.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #31 on: January 13, 2017, 10:35:42 AM »
Again, how much we are pumping out is not a definitiion of peak oil -- peak oil is when you have heit the peak of how much you have avialable to pump out.

It is also wrong to assume that we will come up with a substitute., just because you want us to. There is no data or indication of anything that will replace the roll of oil with a similar historical ROI, and that is key, the ROI.

When we went from burning wood and whale oil to using petroleum, the oil especially at the beginning, had a crazy high ROI. What we are bringing online now, solar, wind, etc... has a way lower ROI, and is a dispersed energy, not concentrated and portable. And, we need oil to mine the stuff needed for trucks, solar panels, wind turbines, etc... so these will get more expensive, we never had to have whale oil lamps to drill for oil. And, people could have cut back or replaced whale oil, and we not stumbled on how to drill fro oil ( not had lamps, for example ) Whale oil was a short, brutal extraction period and the world would not have changed much had it just stopped with no replacement. SO, if your hope doesnt pan out and we do not have a high ROI, portable energy source to replace oil, then you can see that the change will be hard on us. Yes, we will go on, but there will be disruptions, to say the least

Electric cars, which are a drop in the market share, are for replacing personal cars, when most of our transport economically is ships and planes and semi-trucks.


Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #32 on: January 13, 2017, 11:08:33 PM »
Again, how much we are pumping out is not a definitiion of peak oil -- peak oil is when you have heit the peak of how much you have avialable to pump out.

There are two different concepts in play.  Peak oil is defined as the point of maximum production.   But the peak oil movement, popularized by M. King Hubbert adds some assumptions to this:

  • Peak oil will be caused by a depletion of cost accessible oil.
  • The rise and subsequent fall in production will follow a mathematical bell shape.
  • The rate of this fall will cause severe economic problems accompanied by social unrest.

One can accept peak oil without accepting the other assumptions the peak oil movement tacks on.

My central claim is that it isn't getting more difficult to get oil. It's become such a mature market that pricing is getting very tight and producers can better predict costs and margins. That costs have raised and margins narrowed isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Peak theory is used regularly in business.  In fact I just completed an analysis two weeks ago based on peak theory.   Basically peak theory addresses the question of when does a particular category (or technology) reach its highest point.  This is important as profitability is directly related to the size of the category.  Specifically:

Profit = Category Size X Share of Market X Margin - Fixed Costs

Category Size is the number of units sold across all competitors (which typically equals production since markets clear).
Share of market is the percent of units sold by the company.
Margin is the amount made per unit sold taking into account all variable costs (e.g. production costs)
Fixed costs are basically overhead that doesn't change much with units sold.

Net the number of units being produced is a major driver of profitability.  When a peak occurs in a category it signals an immediate need to diversify offerings.  It sucks to be a PDA producer in a smart phone world.  As an example, the PC manufacturers are facing huge issues because Peak PC has occurred.

<a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/5241/global-pc-shipments-since-2008/" title="Infographic: Five Years Past Peak PC | Statista">Infographic: Five Years Past Peak PC | Statista" width="100%" height="auto" style="width: 100%; height: auto !important; max-width:960px;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;[/url]
You will find more statistics at Statista

Right now there is no sign of reaching peak oil.  Every time the peak oil movement tries to fit a bell curve the actual trend just flies through it.  For example the last really big 'peak push' was 2010 and that prediction failed in months.



But even if a peak does occur, it most likely won't be from production issues.  Current accessible reserves are through the roof.  And even if there were production issues it wouldn't be apocalyptic in the US.  Most people don't realize it but we have diversified our electric grid away from oil.  Right now oil makes up less than 1% of our electricity production and dropping (solar alone will probably eclipse it this year). 



And our consumption of oil for other purposes (heating and fuel) is dropping substantially.  Natural gas and other sources are just sapping the need.  Right now petroleum is down to about one third of total.

Offline CharlesH

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #33 on: January 14, 2017, 08:03:36 AM »
Impressive post iam4liberty.  I appreciate all the detail.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #34 on: January 14, 2017, 12:43:17 PM »
The thing is, oil is a problem for transportation, and the manufacture of plastics and fertilizers,  not electricity generation.

And, most of our transportation needs is not personal cas used to commute

And, the reason for peak charts that do not "bell curve" is that when it has started to go down, we add things that we are charting, so different products are on that graph as it goes along. Yes, tight oil gives oil ( at a real low EROI ), but the originally charted, conventional fields are what peaked. the others will peak soon. Tight oil has to constantly have new drilling, ech spot lasts just a couple years(that time frame is from memory -- but, it is very short )

Offline surfivor

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #35 on: January 14, 2017, 03:34:05 PM »

 Apparently electric cars depend on lithium batteries which are made from rare earth minerals so it's not clear how easy it is to manufacture infinite amounts of batteries.


Offline Carl

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #36 on: January 14, 2017, 03:44:57 PM »
 Also batteries only STORE ENERGY and so they require fuel,of some kind,to charge them...often the over-loaded grid so NUKE,Natural gas,coal...all are used for grid service.

Offline surfivor

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #37 on: January 14, 2017, 07:20:55 PM »
Yes, it seems questionable that because of climate change nuclear power starts to look better but may have severe problems and Hazards of its own

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #38 on: January 14, 2017, 07:58:30 PM »
Also batteries only STORE ENERGY and so they require fuel,of some kind,to charge them...often the over-loaded grid so NUKE,Natural gas,coal...all are used for grid service.

Electric cars actually help the grid.  One of the biggest issues utilities face is unbalanced load throughout the day and night.  Electric vehicles are primarily charged at night during off peak times.  So until millions are on the road it will be beneficial.  Many utilities are even offering lower rates for electric vehicle charging.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #39 on: January 14, 2017, 08:22:49 PM »
Electric cars actually help the grid.  One of the biggest issues utilities face is unbalanced load throughout the day and night.  Electric vehicles are primarily charged at night during off peak times.  So until millions are on the road it will be beneficial.  Many utilities are even offering lower rates for electric vehicle charging.

for the moment, but they are also paying hefty rebates, at least in CA, for businesses to install storage for "peak shaving" ie., the are heavily subsidizing the battery banks, to be charged at night, to be put in use during "peak" usage time (late afternnon thru early evening. Time of Use metering also does this, I have time of use metering, so we are encouraged by this pricing to do, for example, laundry, baking, garden watering (pumps), run the dishwasher, at non-peak hours ( at night, early morning). Time of Use has been too popular, actually, so they are changing the rate structure, they no longer need to encentivize it as much.

So, yes, all these things are good and useful.

But, the major disruptive effects predicted to result from higher priced oil are not about electricity production ! It is about the Industrial/Business level, - plastic/synthetic products, pesticides, other chemical industrial uses of oil; Commercial transportation, ie., trucks, air transport, shipping of all types; powering the Mining, Refining, Smelting and Construction (of buildings, of roads, of wind turbines, etc....) Again, it is not about our driving, a little it is, but not alot, (the getting the metal and the plastics to build the cars, it is ) not so much the personal transport portion of the worlds fuel budget-- because, while that is part of it, and will be affected, it is a small part compared to other uses of oil.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #40 on: January 14, 2017, 11:21:56 PM »
But, the major disruptive effects predicted to result from higher priced oil are not about electricity production ! It is about the Industrial/Business level, - plastic/synthetic products, pesticides, other chemical industrial uses of oil; Commercial transportation, ie., trucks, air transport, shipping of all types; powering the Mining, Refining, Smelting and Construction (of buildings, of roads, of wind turbines, etc....) Again, it is not about our driving, a little it is, but not alot, (the getting the metal and the plastics to build the cars, it is ) not so much the personal transport portion of the worlds fuel budget-- because, while that is part of it, and will be affected, it is a small part compared to other uses of oil.

Hmmm.... I dont think i am communicating very well today.   My point is that the US has been aggresively moving away from oil. It only makes up a small portion (less than 1%) of our grid.  It is the grid which primarily fuels industry.  Another item you mentioned was plastics.  We primarily (over 80%) use natural gas to create plastics.  We stopped using oil about a decade ago.  The number one use of oil in US is for fuel at about 67%.  But  we have drastically improved fuel economy.  Here is the break down from 2015:

Product                                     Annual consumption (million barrels per day)
Finished motor gasoline.                                       9.178
Distillate fuel oil (diesel fuel and heating oil)       3.995
Hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL)                            2.549
Kerosene-type jet fuel                                       1.548
Still gas.                                                             0.683
Petroleum coke                                                    0.349
Asphalt and road oil                                            0.343
Petrochemical feedstocks                                    0.331
Residual fuel oil                                                    0.259
Lubricants                                                            0.138
Miscellaneous products and others.                     0.089
Special napthas                                                    0.052
Finished aviation gasoline                                    0.011
Kerosene                                                            0.006
Waxes                                                                    0.006

The net effect has been a big drop in oil use in the US at the same time we have had a big rise in domestic production.



This drop has been devastating to oil producing countries.  Saudi Arabia is going into massive debt.  Venezuela has collapsed.  Russia is freaked.  So if there is a danger from oil it is more that a lack of demand is destabilizing countries not that we are going to run out.


Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #41 on: January 15, 2017, 07:21:04 AM »
I also just checked fertilizer as that is one item often cited by the peak oil movement as being a disrupter.  95% is now made from natural gas as well. 

http://petrowiki.org/Gas_as_fertilizer_feedstock

Ammonia can be produced from different hydrocarbon feedstocks such as natural gas, coal, and oil. Natural gas accounts for more than 95% of ammonia tonnage. Natural gas is the preferred feedstock primarily because:

    It is intrinsically the most hydrogen rich and, therefore, contributes more hydrogen compared with other feedstocks on a unit weight basis.
    The heavier feedstocks, like coal and oil, are more complex to process; therefore, the capital costs are higher compared to natural gas.


There was even a, shall we say, more colorful response about this in Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/04/07/were-not-going-to-run-out-of-oil-based-fertilizer/#553b642115ae
« Last Edit: January 15, 2017, 07:27:00 AM by iam4liberty »

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #42 on: January 15, 2017, 08:48:50 AM »
Claiming we're post-peak because US oil production has diminished seems like a fallacy. It could likewise be argued that oil peaked in Texas, iron peaked in Minnesota, or Legos peaked in Denmark. There were more efficient ways of meeting demand.

Also the first statement is false.  As Endurance pointed out, to make any type of claim of a peak you have to limit the discusdion by extraction technology used.  US production didnt peak in the 1970s.  We are back on the upswing and whether it peaks or not purely depends on how much overseas oil costs.  If it is a good deal we will throttle back production and hold this in reserves.  If it is a bad deal we will continue to set production records.


Offline David in MN

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #43 on: January 15, 2017, 02:22:54 PM »
Fair point. Maybe I was a bit hasty and unclear. I agree there is some nuance to the source. But my bias would assume that's just "baked in" to the cost. I wouldn't decouple those and assume they go hand in hand.

In truth this thread hasleft me more confused about "peak oil" than when I started. It seems that the term can apply to any point where production reaches a momentary maximum, which seems unimportant if demand is met. It can refer to the economic turmoil of demand outpacing diminishing supply (what I thought it was at the jump). And it can refer to increased production costs which somehow don't translate into higher commodity costs.

I'll admit that while I'm trying to understand the nuances here I'm not quite ready to abandon my original thesis. In fact given some new definitions of "peak oil" I'm not even sure I have a workable problem definition to tackle. I can envision a situation where oil supply peaks and due to increased efficiency and good futures pricing nobody even notices.

Offline NWPilgrim

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #44 on: January 15, 2017, 10:23:08 PM »
I thought "Peak" in this situation refers to a peak in total in-the-ground accessible reserves whether developed or not.  That is, the total known reserves.  Production will always fluctuate depending on demand, ROI, etc.  If so, the big question is not when PRODUCTION peaked, but are total reserves fixed and past the point of maximum potential extraction/production; or, are there much more reserves yet to be created or discovered?

I don't think the COMEX is a reliable indicator of peak or not.  It really just reflects what is expected in the next year or so.  Unpredictable influences such as politics, new tech, etc can also disrup or expedite production along with variable demands.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #45 on: January 15, 2017, 11:51:33 PM »
I thought "Peak" in this situation refers to a peak in total in-the-ground accessible reserves whether developed or not.  That is, the total known reserves.  Production will always fluctuate depending on demand, ROI, etc.  If so, the big question is not when PRODUCTION peaked, but are total reserves fixed and past the point of maximum potential extraction/production; or, are there much more reserves yet to be created or discovered?

I don't think the COMEX is a reliable indicator of peak or not.  It really just reflects what is expected in the next year or so.  Unpredictable influences such as politics, new tech, etc can also disrup or expedite production along with variable demands.

Yes, Dave, the term applies, like he says to amount in the ground, peak of available oil --- not how much we are producing  (pumping out)

But, I thought of something, we often think of the Peak Oil Movement when we think of the term Peak Oil -- and, if you can stand another JMG essay, he agrees with you that this movement is dead, and why he thinks that is. He also thinks it pretty much has contaminated the term "peak oil " and that we are going to have to use a new term to describe it. So, likely you like everyone else think of the overblown claims from some areas of the movement, and so rightly see it as "dead "  "....I’m sorry to say that the phrase “peak oil,” familiar and convenient as it is, probably has to go.  The failures of the movement that coalesced around that phrase were serious and visible enough that some new moniker will be needed for the time being, to avoid being tarred with a well-used brush. The crucial concept of net energy—the energy a given resource provides once you subtract the energy needed to extract, process, and use it—would have to be central ....."

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2016/12/why-peak-oil-movement-failed.html

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #46 on: January 16, 2017, 12:05:34 AM »
I thought "Peak" in this situation refers to a peak in total in-the-ground accessible reserves whether developed or not.  That is, the total known reserves.

From wikipedia:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubbert's theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline.[1] Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time. It is often confused with oil depletion; however, peak oil is the point of maximum production, while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply.

In truth this thread hasleft me more confused about "peak oil" than when I started. It seems that the term can apply to any point where production reaches a momentary maximum, which seems unimportant if demand is met. It can refer to the economic turmoil of demand outpacing diminishing supply (what I thought it was at the jump). And it can refer to increased production costs which somehow don't translate into higher commodity costs.

You are not confused at all.  This is exactly right.  It can be either the "optimistic: or" pessimistic scenario.  Again from wikipedia:

Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, predict negative global economy implications following a post-peak production decline and subsequent oil price increase because of the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural, and industrial systems on the low cost and high availability of oil.[2][3] Predictions vary greatly as to what exactly these negative effects would be.

Oil production forecasts on which predictions of peak oil are based are often made within a range which includes optimistic (higher production) and pessimistic (lower production) scenarios. Optimistic[4] estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin after 2020, and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations. Pessimistic predictions of future oil production made after 2007 stated either that the peak had already occurred,[5][6][7][8] that oil production was on the cusp of the peak, or that it would occur shortly.[9][10]


So, say we get fusion up and running producing electricity at 1/1000th of current costs allowing us to replace gasoline with hydrogen from electralysis, we will hit peak oil as there will be no market for it.  That would be a very happy peak oil scenario.  If on the other hand outer space aliens come and suck all the oil out with a giant straw, we will hit peak oil as there will be none left to get.  That would be a very sad peak oil scenario. 

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #47 on: March 09, 2017, 06:47:53 AM »
We are now getting clarity on production/inventories since opec scale back.  OIL production steady and still outpacing demand.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-alert-us-oil-price-200557480.html

Market alert: US oil price plunges toward $50 as a perfect storm brews

Oil is on track to break through the key psychological level of $50 a barrel after a ninth straight rise in U.S. crude stockpiles came at exactly the wrong moment, analysts said Wednesday.

The amount of crude oil in U.S. storage rose to another record high on Wednesday, jumping 8.2 million barrels from the previous week, the Energy Information Administration reported. The increase was more than four times what analysts expected.

Weekly figures also showed U.S. oil production continuing to tick up toward 9.1 million barrels a day, the highest level in more than a year. That provided further evidence that rising American output is confounding efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries , Russia and 10 other exporters to reduce global oil inventories by curbing their own output.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #48 on: May 26, 2017, 09:31:02 AM »
Detailed article in WSJ a few days ago on oil companies preparing for peak demand; ie the point where demand for oil starts to plummit. "Calling it accurately is high stakes for an oil industry sitting on trillions of dollars of crude-oil reserves.  Whenever it finally does happen, the tipping point from oil-demand growth to decline will reverberate through the energy world,  knocking down oil prices and some companies shareholders."  Base prediction seems to be the year 2040.  Some oil companies have already started scaling back investment in production.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready-for-peak-oil-demand-1495419061
« Last Edit: May 26, 2017, 09:39:10 AM by iam4liberty »

Offline Carl

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #49 on: May 26, 2017, 07:05:14 PM »
  I think oil demand has already cut back or the price would be higher. It may be a bit harder to get,but we have MORE oil available now than in the early days as we have better technology to harvest economically now.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #50 on: May 26, 2017, 11:09:53 PM »
  I think oil demand has already cut back or the price would be higher. It may be a bit harder to get,but we have MORE oil available now than in the early days as we have better technology to harvest economically now.
I am not sure that last Clause computes. We have more oil available now, but the methods to access much of it is more expensive now (even in inflation  adjusted dollars).

Offline alexlindsay

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #51 on: June 03, 2017, 01:42:17 PM »
As I currently sit in a shack at an oil rig drilling an oil well I can assure you production has not and will not peak for quite a while. technology has made so many resources become reserves that production can drastically increase if price increases or moderately expand if prices remain stable. the oil company I'm drilling for makes money right now and are expanding their drilling program quite a bit.

as the various recovery technologies progress the breakeven costs drop, it's much like buying tvs which have dropped in price because they are commodity technology instead of being proprietary or revolutionary. the same has and continues to happen in oil.

Offline Carl

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #52 on: June 03, 2017, 05:10:43 PM »
As I currently sit in a shack at an oil rig drilling an oil well I can assure you production has not and will not peak for quite a while. technology has made so many resources become reserves that production can drastically increase if price increases or moderately expand if prices remain stable. the oil company I'm drilling for makes money right now and are expanding their drilling program quite a bit.

as the various recovery technologies progress the breakeven costs drop, it's much like buying tvs which have dropped in price because they are commodity technology instead of being proprietary or revolutionary. the same has and continues to happen in oil.

Thanks for the incite.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #53 on: June 03, 2017, 10:58:32 PM »
Thanks for the incite.
And with the puns again...

Seriously though, thank you for that Alex.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #54 on: June 04, 2017, 08:17:05 AM »
As I currently sit in a shack at an oil rig drilling an oil well I can assure you production has not and will not peak for quite a while. technology has made so many resources become reserves that production can drastically increase if price increases or moderately expand if prices remain stable. the oil company I'm drilling for makes money right now and are expanding their drilling program quite a bit.

Quick question, Alex. What rough percent of the equipment cost is already paid for by US producers like yours?  Was it a large upfront cost which was paid for and now it is mostly ongoing maintenance?  From the chart earler in the thread the big rise in US production began about 10 years ago.  So my guess is that if it  is like construction where equipment is finaced for 5 to 8 years, a lot of those costs are now going away lowering the break-even point for existing locales.

Offline alexlindsay

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #55 on: June 04, 2017, 10:46:16 AM »
I am actually Canadian and working for a Canadian producer, but the situations are similar.

when you say equipment cost I'm assuming you mean it like the PP&E line on their balance sheet? the sunk costs of a well are usually paid off in 18 months to 3 years depending on oil prices and the particular wells economics.

the ongoing maintenance of a well is variable with the type of well it is. some wells don't require expensive maintenance such as refracks but tight oil wells do if they are to maintain production. much of the additional production from the last 10 years is tight oil and has different economic dynamics for an oil company. companies that are exclusively tight oil producers operated like ponzi schemes really. they borrowed to still, drilled to prove up reserves, borrowed against those reserves to drill more to further the cycle, all the while hoping to get bought out to pay out the insiders stock. sometimes they made shareholders rich but when the downturn came the model failed because they didnt have the counted upon revenue to setvice the debt that was used to pay for the well and many went tits up because they relied on perpetual expansion to exist. they were not asset management companies which is really how an oil company ideally should be run. to understand oil markets you have to understand oil companies and to understand most oil companies you have to understand oil executives. junior oil company executives want to get rich off founders shares when the company gets sold, that's why oil companies are started, for no other reason.

equipment such as rigs have longer payoff periods for drilling companies because they tend to last a lot longer.
what has really changed things is the commoditization of aa bunch of formerly expensive oil services such as directional drilling and fracking. 20 years ago if you wanted those services there were very few providers, who therefore could set their prices as they wished. now, I could start a directional drilling company tomorrow if I had guaranteed work, all would take would be 200000$ for an mwd tool kit and paper to write the contract on. this commoditization of formerly niche services is what has driven down drilling costs. they were held high by demand when oil was 100$ a barrel but once it wasn't services went into a race to the bottom.

so basically it is service costs that mostly determine the cost of oil extraction.

I'm not sure if that entirely answers your question, so if you want more clarification or information just let me know.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 10:54:26 AM by alexlindsay »

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #56 on: June 04, 2017, 12:15:36 PM »

I'm not sure if that entirely answers your question, so if you want more clarification or information just let me know.

Exactly what i wanted to know.  I think most of us probably have an overly simplistic view of how industries like this work because of the caricutures painted in the media.  This makes it hard to judge statements and especially predictions made.  It is good to get  an inside view into how these businesses operate.  +1 for the insightful posts.

Offline alexlindsay

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #57 on: June 04, 2017, 02:13:22 PM »
thank you very much.

I, personally, take predictions about commodities markets with a grain of salt. no one really knows what is going to happen. to make a prediction you have to make assumptions about things that are going to happen that will effect the market and because no one can accurately know the future you can't make these assumptions.

I try to stick to what is known which in reality is very little. most predictions sound conveniently plausible but are nothing but talk.

I'm happy to answer technical questions about oil and gas as well if anyone has any.


Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Is 'Peak Oil' Over?
« Reply #58 on: December 07, 2018, 05:30:24 PM »
Update.

New estimates are that US oil will continue to flow down to $35  a barrel as most is sunk cost which has to be covered.  Since Saudi Arabia and Russia needs $50 to $60 a barrel to keep economy from collapsing, not much chance it will drop far below that price. At this point we have proven reserves higher than at any other point in history.  Net effect of this and lower consumption is US has become net exporter of fuels again.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-becomes-net-exporter-of-oil-fuels-for-first-time-in-decades-1544128404

U.S. Becomes Net Exporter of Oil, Fuels for First Time in Decades

The U.S. became a net exporter of oil and refined fuels last week for the first time in decades, a symbolic milestone that would have seemed unthinkable just 10 years ago.

The shift to net exporter from importer, detailed in weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, may be short lived. Still, it demonstrates that America is moving closer to achieving “energy independence” as the shale revolution makes the country one of the world’s top oil producers and reshapes global markets.
...
America is now the world’s top producer of oil and natural gas.