An important piece of intel, would be to know the time frame between the .mil choosing a new rifle/cartridge and the same being physically replaced in the field for all applicable missions. While your point is very valid, my guess is there's be some significant latency between the "decision" and the "deployment". Maybe that's several months, or a few years. And initially there should be a wave of surplus ammo/mags. So in the near term that might be a boon for 5.56 civilian shooters.
As long as there are active duty infantry units fielding 5.56mm weapons, I don't think the supply economics will change too drastically.
If any insiders can give an estimate on the timing, I would appreciate it.
In this particular case (IMO), the complete timing of the changeover isn't all that important.
It's like this: The situation we're currently in originates back as far as 2012. When Obama's second term started, everyone thought he'd go after guns. At that time, ammunition manufacturers received a RIDICULOUS number of orders from existing FFL's in preparation for the purchasing onslaught that did happen. . .for a while. They are just now getting caught up to those orders. . .BUT. . .a lot of the FFL's that ordered are no longer in business. Remember, in 2012, it was almost impossible to find ammo and stayed that way for 3 years, in some cases.
Now, we're seeing a glut in the market. This is for TWO reasons. . .the first is that all those orders are in and the second is that Hillary didn't get elected. We'd be talking about a completely different problem, right now, if there was a second Clinton in office. This is also the reason you see major AR producers, such as Colt, dropping their prices significantly. They, too, prepared for the worst and are now swimming in stock with no "fear-driven" purchases in the marketplace.
The Golden Period to which I earlier referred is the time it's going to take for this surplus to be bought up.
Now, there are two other issues that will feed into this that only solidifies my Golden Period belief.
In about two years, the 2020 elections will be in full swing. If you think Hillary was scary, imagine what's going to be on the Democrat's Candidate list for the next election?
We will, once again, be thrown back into Panic Mode as all the late-comers, who got comfortable with Trump in office, feel their rights are threatened, once again.
So, at THAT time, ammo demand will begin to go up and supply will begin to go down, leading to higher prices. How many ammo manufacturers will fall by the wayside in the next two years due to lack of demand and high on-hand stock? They have to survive the next two years
somehow. We're already seeing drops in prices to keep the cash flowing.
The industry is teetering, right now. Major firearms, and firearms-related, companies will be closing their doors. Olympic Arms has closed. Remington closed a major plant in Mayfield, KY, ammo manufacturers are already dealing with major problem sourcing lead due to the previous administration closing the Herculaneum smelting plant.
With the additional threat of losing 5.56x45 military production, it just pushes the window closed a little more.
Please understand, I'm not saying you won't be able to purchase current military calibers ever again, I'm just saying NOW is the time to do it if you want to get them at the cheapest prices in the foreseeable future.
The Professor
