Why NOW is the time to buy AR's and 5.56x45 ammo:

[Stwood]

22LR is everywhere here now.
Our Farm store had the standard box of 50 for $4.99 for a long time.
Now they are selling it 2 boxes for $5.00
I haven't bit yet.....

They have AR's on sale for 450.00 this week.

[iam4liberty]

I suppose it depends. In the past month I've bought some ammo and magazines are reasonable prices. Reloading components are still abundant for me.

Welcome aboard 88Glock.

Yes, welcome!

The market is really "splotchy" right now, both in terms of offerings and geographies.  Best entry level deal going is on the polymer ARs like this one for $419:

https://www.rkguns.com/ati-omni-hybrid-maxx-223-5-56-ar-15-rifle-atigomx556kmltd.html

Metal ones are starting in the mid 500s. 

Regarding geographies, in some states ARs are hard to come by. But here in Indiana I can walk into almost any store and have choice of at least half a dozen different models. Lowers here are in stock and selling for between $75 to $100 but on East coast see reports of sell outs and $150+.

They have AR's on sale for 450.00 this week.

Polymer or metal receiver?  If metal that is really good.

[Smurf Hunter]

One thing that's difficult about AR15s, they are a commodity and they are not at the same time.

While they are extremely popular, you can buy complete rifles ranging from $500-$2000+
You can also buy stripped lowers, kits or piece by piece with a similar price range.

It's not like a Glock19 that's a known product offering with a price tag. If glocks were out of stock nationally or suddenly had $900 price tags, that's a clear indicator of something.

I personally have, and know others who own a few extra stripped AR lowers that sit in a safe for a rainy day.  It stands to reason a ban on new sales (receivers) would come before consumable parts like barrels and bolts. Whenever I have enough disposable gun money to build another AR, I usually find another firearm purchase I want more. While I might build more ARs in the future, I might also sell my lowers and new in packaging magazines for a healthy profit in some situations.

[Stwood]

Yes, welcome!

The market is really "splotchy" right now, both in terms of offerings and geographies.  Best entry level deal going is on the polymer ARs like this one for $419:

https://www.rkguns.com/ati-omni-hybrid-maxx-223-5-56-ar-15-rifle-atigomx556kmltd.html

Metal ones are starting in the mid 500s. 

Regarding geographies, in some states ARs are hard to come by. But here in Indiana I can walk into almost any store and have choice of at least half a dozen different models. Lowers here are in stock and selling for between $75 to $100 but on East coast see reports of sell outs and $150+.

Polymer or metal receiver?  If metal that is really good.

The ad didn't state which one. If I get to town before the sale is over I'll ck on it.

[The Professor]

One thing that's difficult about AR15s, they are a commodity and they are not at the same time.

While they are extremely popular, you can buy complete rifles ranging from $500-$2000+
You can also buy stripped lowers, kits or piece by piece with a similar price range.

It's not like a Glock19 that's a known product offering with a price tag. If glocks were out of stock nationally or suddenly had $900 price tags, that's a clear indicator of something.

I personally have, and know others who own a few extra stripped AR lowers that sit in a safe for a rainy day.  It stands to reason a ban on new sales (receivers) would come before consumable parts like barrels and bolts. Whenever I have enough disposable gun money to build another AR, I usually find another firearm purchase I want more. While I might build more ARs in the future, I might also sell my lowers and new in packaging magazines for a healthy profit in some situations.

The problem is that if there IS a ban, many of the parts you need to fit out those lowers may be gone in a flash. 

Remember Obama's first term. . .the panic was so great that no lowers, no uppers, no lower parts kits were available and firearms.  Those complete rifles that hadn't sold immediately before his election, tripled or quadrupled in price.

Buying parts offers two things: First, it allows the average person to get what he/she needs at a lower price.  Maybe someone can't afford a $500 complete rifle, but, chances are that they can afford a forged $50 Anderson lower one week.  Two weeks later, a forged Anderson Upper for another $50.   Continuing on that particular path, they could have a complete firearm in about 8-10 weeks, if not sooner.  No, it may not be the best quality, if you go this particular route, but the person could, conceivably, even part together a Noveske, Vltor, LWRC or similar rifle the same way.  Get a torque wrench and a couple of AR-specific tools and, voila!

Second, it also allows someone to invest.  Those $50 lowers, in the case of a ban, could easily pull ten times that if the seller is patient.  Look back during the 1994 Ban.  Standard AR's, which sold for $565 - 725, were selling for upwards of $2-3K, consistently.

Hell, if the price doubled, it's better than silver or gold, right now.  My "play" money is going towards lowers and Lower Parts Kits.  Buy one or two each week and put them back.  If nothing happens, meh. . .I've got bases to build future projects on. Even if I have too many and nothing happens, I can always sell them for what I have in them.  If we go all totalitarian gun ban. . .who knows how high they'll go?

Time will tell, but I'm not too optimistic, right now.

The Professor

[Carl]

  I have plenty of LOWERS and as the only part that is SERIAL NUMBERED they ,during a BAN,will be about the only part that will be hard to find.

[iam4liberty]

Hey professor, given that you have been in the market, what are you seeing in parts prices especially LPKs?  Any movement?

[Smurf Hunter]

  I have plenty of LOWERS and as the only part that is SERIAL NUMBERED they ,during a BAN,will be about the only part that will be hard to find.

Both Carl and Professor make valid arguments.  I think I'll split the difference with my strategy.

I remember back in 2012 how hard it was to find complete upper receivers, even though those were not the regulated part.
I think some higher end LPKs could be prudent to acquire.

[iam4liberty]

Both Carl and Professor make valid arguments...
I think some higher end LPKs could be prudent to acquire.

My exact thought too.

[88Glock]

I suppose it depends. In the past month I've bought some ammo and magazines are reasonable prices. Reloading components are still abundant for me.

Welcome aboard 88Glock.  I encourage you to stop by the "Front Porch"  and introduce yourself:

http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=89.msg744619#new

Thanks, I'll do that!

For sure there is not a run on parts and ammo, only increased shipping delays. Some things are out though like AR15 lowers and uppers from some companies. I think there is concern but not panic yet.

[Carl]

  At my member supported BOL,the armory has 1 AR per each adult member with a half dozen or so spare lowers and some different caliber uppers  available plus full spare parts kits INCLUDING a dozen spare bolts and many many MAGPUL 10 and 30 round magazines....and an embarrassing ammo supply.

I was curious...I own ONE Daniel Defence M4 and a spare parts kit with spare bolt...my choice is 30 cal. BARs,M1 Garands,M14's and a few Thompsons in 45 ACP for fun. >223 is more a varmint round in my opinion.

[The Professor]

  I have plenty of LOWERS and as the only part that is SERIAL NUMBERED they ,during a BAN,will be about the only part that will be hard to find.

I have to respectfully disagree.

After the 1994 ban + six months, parts kits and magazines were impossible to find for about two years.  Magazines came back (high-caps), but it was not uncommon to see standard Okay (Brand) mags running $25-30 for a 30-rd, used.  Mags for my M1A went upwards of $100 for almost six years.

After Obama's first election, parts kits were impossible to find for about 18 months.  Magazines disappeared off shelves in the first two weeks.  It took mags almost three months to get back in any volume. . .all of this because people were AFRAID he'd ban them

After Obama's second election, there was a three month period where  parts kits, including LPK's, UPK's and almost every "official" pin or spring were scarcer than hen's teeth.  On the upside, lowers and magazines were EVERYWHERE because plenty of people learned from Obama's FIRST election how to make lowers.  There were so many lowers (albeit at an inflated rate), that there honestly was no problem getting them, if you had the cash.  All of this because people were CERTAIN he'd ban them with no potential repercussions, now that he was re-elected.

Prices rebalanced after about six months.

You may be right. IF the weapons are "grandfathered" in.  Don't dismiss that as being inevitable.  Look at what's happening in Illinois.  Law-abiding citizens owning legal firearms are being told to turn "assault rifles" in, if they're under 21.  Illinois has a FOID card (Firearms Owners ID).  Every purchase is registered with the state.  That's both for firearms AND ammunition.  They know who has what.

Take a look, very carefully, at the proposed wording of the contemporary Assault Weapons Ban.   They didn't sit on their butts between 1994 and 2004, they took copious notes.  They removed every possible way around reformatting the firearm (featurless stocks, multiple round capacity, detachable anything, etc.).

Any such "A"WB is going to be the most comprehensive piece of legislation that can be conceived (unless, of course, members of the BOD pay the antigunners, again, to leave out certain,  named brands and styles while banning others).

IF possession is allowed, it will most likely be regulated along the lines of a Class III weapon with an amnesty period for registering at a greatly reduced, if not free, tax stamp.

We can all beat our chests and howl ". . .from our cold, dead fingers!" all we want, but some will be out there snagging up what parts are left.  If anyone continues to make them, they'll be damned expensive and, most likely, will require proof of a tax stamp to obtain.

I'm not saying that you're 100% wrong, I'm saying that history hasn't borne this out.  At the very least, repair/replacement parts will be prohibitively expensive because not everyone will want to go through the hoops.

With this in mind, I'd rather spend $50-100 for an LPK that my grandkids may inherit rather than have them try to gerry-rig a work-around.

The Professor

[The Professor]

Hey professor, given that you have been in the market, what are you seeing in parts prices especially LPKs?  Any movement?

What I'm seeing is a slow trend upwards and cheap/inexpensive parts kits disappearing very quickly.  One one of the larger sites, a batch of Anderson LPK's came in and about 200 of them sold in one afternoon for $39.

Mid-level kits are still running $59-99, depending upon who makes them and if they have the pistol grip, or not.

In all honesty, I think we're only now seeing the beginnings of a panic.  There have been so many AR's sold in the past 12 years that it's mind-boggling.  Up until very recently, most distributors were swimming in both AR's and ammo.    You're still seeing phenomenal prices on 5.56/.223 ammo, mainly milspec because of what I call the FFL bubble burst of 2014.  With so many gun sales and the difficulty to obtain firearms for stock after Obama's second election, hundreds of gun businesses had to shut their doors.  In 2012, right after the election and past the SHOT Show of 2013, BILLIONS of rounds were ordered.  There were some interesting threads, at the time, right here on SPF about it. 

It was projected that it would take 2-5  years to fill all the orders (across the board, from .22 LR to larger calibers).  Unfortunately, no guns and ammo for stock means no cash flow for dealers.  Many couldn't weather the storm and closed their doors.  Most of those orders still stood, however, without the full distribution system to get them to the people who ordered them.  Then, eventually, the panic cooled and people who placed orders for (not exaggerating) 15K - 25K rounds sorta balked at the expenditure since their orders were coming in almost 18 months later and there was no sign of a ban.

There was a bit of a panic with this last election, but since Trump got in, people felt/feel that the threat of a ban no longer existed.

There are warehouses that are stacked to the rafters with ammo.  Mil-spec, 77-gr 5.56x45 OTBTM, the so-called "Tango Buster" has been running for less than $0.50/rd in 500 round boxes with FREE delivery.

There are additional reasons to buy now, but the evening news is the most compelling, at this moment.

All I've ever suggested is try to get them if you can.

The Professor

[NWPilgrim]

It will be interesting to see what happens in Oregon.  The Legislature has rightfully been hesitant to pass gun ban laws, but this election cycle we have an Initiative with enough signatures to get on the ballot (I'm sure our leftwing State Secretary won't bother in depth validating the signatures for this one like they do for conservative initiatives).  This really concerns me as Oregon voters knee jerk vote FOR any Initiative that raises taxes, "sounds happy do-good" and AGAINST any that require responsibility or protects freedom except for smoking weed.

The essence is that it will ban selling or TRANSFER of ANY semi-auto or magazine over 10 rounds.  You can keep what you have if you register it (right!!), but no one can inherit, buy or gift them ever again.  this means Marlin 60, Ruger 10/22, Mossberg 935 12 ga, Remington 1100, Benelli SBE, AR15, M1 Garand/Carbine, Browning BAR, Remington 7400, etc.  Oh yeah, and pistols. Everything!  This would not have a snowball's chance in hell in the State Legislature, but knowing some of my liberal family members they will be all over this Initiative without knowing anything about guns or having any desire to protect their families (that crap can't possibly happen to "nice" people, right?).

I am planning to finally set up a family trust or two to encapsulate all my wife's and mine property and guns, and also an NFA trust.  I want to ensure my kids and grandkids can inherit all we have by being co-owners BEFORE we die.  And I do trust all that we will put on the list with my life and any decisions along the way, great "kids".  But we are re-viving our thinking about moving to Idaho as well, where I have extended family.  If this Initiative passes I think it will take a couple of years to settle things here in Oregon and when my wife retires we just move the hell out.

I give it about a 70/30 chance of passing.  I am well stocked on guns and ammo but plan to buy a few more lowers and AR15 mags (mostly 20 and 30 rd GI as I have a crap ton of Magpuls).  I'm not worried about short term availability of LPK and uppers as I have plenty of complete guns now.  I am more concerned about the long term.  If we move to Idaho it is a moot concern.  But if for some reason we get stuck longer in Oregon, I want to pass on as many guns and lowers as possible to family.  Plan A is not to live under stupidity and oppression.  Plan B is to insulate at least our family from the worst of it.

And just remember that "transfer" can mean lending a friend a gun to take to the shooting range or hunting for the day.  Possibly even letting someone (friend, son/daughter) shoot a gun at the range while you visit the restroom.  Or they borrow your car (with a gun in the trunk from last range visit).  Could be a very insidious clause in the possible law.

I am increasing my inventory stocking levels all around starting with AR15s, then M1 Garands, then M1 Carbines, then pistols to include 50% increase of ammo and mags (from "boat load" to "1.5 boat loads") and probably adding a few guns along the way in terms of AR15 lowers and a couple of Glock Gen 4/5 pistols.  My long term projection of the intelligence of the voting public is not good, it points to the abyss. Two years? Five years? Fifty years?  I don't know the timeline but I see NO self-correcting attitude in the majority of voters, so the general direction is from bad to worse.

[David in MN]

I put up a post on it but it belongs here too. The ammo companies are in a shift mode. Federal is starting to sell its new .224 Valkyrie round. They claim it keeps supersonic to 1300 yards.

http://www.federalpremium.com/224-valkyrie/

I'm not saying it's a guarantee but it sure ffels like there is a movement to put the 5.56to pasture. If the Valkyrie is Federal's attempt it's impressive. It's got a longer range, less wind deflection, and what do you know it works with a few upgrades to the AR platform.

Why would Federal invest so much in a cartridge that does nothing but extend the range and stopping power of the AR platform? For me the writing is on the wall that a change is coming. I'm making no claim the Valkyrie is the next military round but I do hear a lot about 6.5 Creedmoor. The gut feel I get from living 5 minutes from Anoka, MN is that the next cartridge will be optimized for ballistic coefficient.

The 5.56 was optimized to be barely enough to stop an opponent yet carry maximum rounds. That was Vietnam math. Afghanistan math is fewer rounds with better long range hits. Afghanistan isn't an AR vs. an AK.

Just my $0.02 but I feel a change coming as well.

[Smurf Hunter]

If the mission of the typical grunt transitions from urban door kicking to designated marksman, maybe...

[Carl]

If the mission of the typical grunt transitions from urban door kicking to designated marksman, maybe...

I seriously doubt the 'next' military weapon will become part of the civilian market...remember how the 410 shotgun JUDGE was advertised along with the 17 rim-fire as being great personal defense weapons? With the level of communications and support our boots have now and the remote machines that can fly to and take out most any target...the need for individual fighting men is less and less as are the support and supplies needed for them...Maybe some plan to arm other countries men on the ground though.?