Author Topic: Hurricane Maria  (Read 7173 times)

Offline chad

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Hurricane Maria
« on: September 16, 2017, 10:18:33 AM »
PTC 15  (maria) could kick off her training wheels soon.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 05:50:36 PM by Mr. Bill »

Offline Cedar

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Re: Heads up...PTC 15 might become maria.
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2017, 10:35:29 AM »
We are up to "M" already? What happens is there is one past "Z"? Has it ever happened before?

Cedar

Offline chad

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Re: Heads up...PTC 15 might become maria.
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2017, 10:46:16 AM »
We are up to "M" already? What happens is there is one past "Z"? Has it ever happened before?

Cedar

Not sure cedar..I think MS had it right, that eclipse marked the beginning of the end :-\

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: Heads up...PTC 15 might become maria.
« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2017, 05:21:49 PM »
Yep, it's Maria now.  Predicted track is similar to Irma's, but starting a little southward and angling a little more northward.  Again, it warrants watching, but there's little to do right now.

What happens is there is one past "Z"? Has it ever happened before?
2005.  (well yeah. 2005 was a special kind of storm year)  Went into overtime using Greek letters.  Got up through zeta, the 6th letter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Offline Polar Bear

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Re: Heads up...PTC 15 might become maria.
« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2017, 06:33:29 PM »
Yep.  I'm keeping an eye one her. 

One year we got all the way to "W".  Hurricane Wilma.

Offline RitaRose1945

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Re: Heads up...PTC 15 might become maria.
« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2017, 06:56:46 PM »
 :knitting:

Offline Cedar

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Re: Heads up...PTC 15 might become maria.
« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2017, 09:33:17 PM »
- Maria is expected to gain strength through the weekend and become a hurricane by late Monday, forecasters said.

Cedar

Offline Redman

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Re: Heads up...PTC 15 might become maria.
« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2017, 03:56:21 AM »
Ugh, here we go again.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Heads up...PTC 15 might become maria.
« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2017, 05:43:48 PM »
Hurricane Maria has strengthened to an "extremely dangerous" category four storm, US forecasters say, as it bears down on islands in the Caribbean.

It is due to hit the Leeward Islands, which include the US and British Virgin islands, in the coming hours.
Maria is moving roughly along the same path as Irma.

If you want to hear the ham radio operators during hurricane Irma
 check the LIVE STREAMING AUDIO on the top right of the Hurricane Watch Net page. It should work OK during activation and the hurricane
https://www.hwn.org/

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2017, 05:54:17 PM »

WTNT45 KNHC 182048
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye.  The last reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from
Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and
this featured has recently become better defined in visible and
infrared satellite imagery.  The aircraft data supported an
intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that
rapid intensification is continuing.  Thus, the initial intensity
is increased to 115 kt.  Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly
possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.

After an excursion to the left overnight, Maria has resumed a
motion of 290-295 degrees at about 8 kt, and the short-term motion
may be even farther to the right.  A weak subtropical ridge to the
north of the hurricane should steer it generally west-northwestward
for the next three days, with the center crossing the Leeward
Islands near Dominica during the next few hours.  This is expected
to be followed by a track across the northeastern Caribbean to near
the Virgin Islands, then followed by a passage over or near Puerto
Rico around the 48 h point.  Once north of Puerto Rico, the
hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest as it approaches a weakness in the ridge.  The track
guidance is tightly clustered through 120 h, and the new forecast
track is an update of the previous forecast that lies a little to
the south of the various consensus models.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer.  The
intensity forecast, which is at or above the upper edge of the
guidance, now calls for Maria to reach a peak intensity of 135 kt
in about 24 h, and it is possible that the hurricane could reach
category 5 status.  Later in the forecast period, land interaction
and less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some
weakening.  On top of these general trends, there is also the
possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would
affect the intensity.  However, Maria is likely to remain an
extremely dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period.

It should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria,
the hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small area
near the eye.  The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii will
not expand significantly during the next 36 h.  However, if an
eyewall replacement cycle occurs, the hurricane-force winds could
expand to an area larger than forecast.

If radar data from the eastern Caribbean is regularly available,
Tropical Cyclone Updates may be issued this evening.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that
island.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.

Cedar

Offline Polar Bear

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2017, 07:37:31 PM »
This is not needed.  My prayers and thoughts go out to those in the path.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2017, 10:25:09 PM »
-Maria, now a Category 5 storm, made landfall on Dominica late Monday, coming ashore at 9:15 p.m. ET. It was so powerful that it tore the roof off the residence of the country's leader at 160mph

Puerto Rico is next.
Puerto Rico sheltered many of the evacuees who fled Hurricane Irma's wrath in other Caribbean islands. Now those evacuees and native Puerto Ricans are bracing for another powerful hurricane.



Cedar
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 10:37:09 PM by Cedar »

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2017, 06:50:19 AM »
Two (so far) major hurricanes in one year may re-shape how the Caribbean is settled.  If we see a repeat of this next year it could really change things up.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2017, 06:57:44 AM »
Two (so far) major hurricanes in one year may re-shape how the Caribbean is settled.  If we see a repeat of this next year it could really change things up.

One island, Barbuda I think, has no one living on it for the first time in 300 years, since around 1717.

Cedar

Offline chad

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2017, 02:03:11 PM »
I found a good live stream with sound, 3 chasers in Puerto Rico.

https://livestormchasing.com/map

Offline Cedar

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2017, 05:01:06 PM »
I found a good live stream with sound, 3 chasers in Puerto Rico.

https://livestormchasing.com/map

That is one of my fav sites when I have a real computer.

Cedar

Offline Cedar

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2017, 08:03:17 AM »
Puerto Rico hit with 155mph winds. Power might be out for months.

Cedar

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2017, 04:26:36 PM »
70,000 in Puerto Rico urged to evacuate, as dam is in imminent danger of failure.

Officials have urged residents in a western section of the island to flee for higher ground as the Guajataca Dam is failing and could burst. A dam failure could send a massive amount of water toward coastal areas along the Guajataca River, which flows north toward the ocean from a large inland lake.

Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2017, 05:35:28 PM »
My husbands best friend lives in PR with his family.  They went dark on Wednesday and we heard this morning that they have a river down their road.  They have tickets out on October 3 (bought months ago for a family wedding) so they will be out soon.

Offline Carl

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2017, 06:03:26 PM »
  For any interested these frequencies are seeing heavy use.The frequencies are handling logistics and health and welfare traffic

With the passage of Hurricane Irma, radio amateurs in the Eastern Caribbean have been extremely busy passing information into and out of the affected area, Eric Mackie, 9Z4CP, told ARRL.

“The Caribbean Emergency and Weather Net (CEWN) has been facilitating this exercise,” Mackie said. “We have however, been experiencing interference from stateside stations from time to time.”

Mackie said the CEWN is asking radio amateurs not involved in the hurricane response to avoid 7.162 MHz(USB), 7,188 MHz(USB), and 3.815 MHz (LSB). He said these frequencies may be operational “at any time.”

Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2017, 06:09:05 PM »
My husbands best friend lives in PR with his family.  They went dark on Wednesday and we heard this morning that they have a river down their road.  They have tickets out on October 3 (bought months ago for a family wedding) so they will be out soon.

just talked to my husband.  He said that J and family have tickets for Sunday 24, if the airport is open by then.

Offline Carl

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2017, 06:17:10 PM »
just talked to my husband.  He said that J and family have tickets for Sunday 24, if the airport is open by then.

PR airport is being used for relief traffic and should return to 'normal' within 2 weeks I have heard on the shortwave a day or so ago.
More reliable power for radar,radios etc as passengers require better stability than currently available ( my best estimate)

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2017, 07:05:42 AM »
Puerto Rico is in really bad shape. 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2017/09/24/hurricane-maria-set-puerto-rico-back-decades/c7LEoBu45Z4YVKxrNjn61J/story.html

The conditions there may result in a fair amount of residual casualties, the elderly and those on maintenance medications, temperature sensitive populations like the aged and very young.  Also, if there is not remedial action there may simply be large, permanent movement of people to CONUS just as New Orleans lost a lot of population permanently.

This may be the kind of thing the military is well suited for, large base of physically fit workers with portable infrastructure.  Specialized units including prime power companies, reverse osmosis water purification Units, portable hospitals with their own generators and climate control.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #23 on: September 26, 2017, 02:02:13 PM »
Today:
Puerto Rico's Governor Ricardo Rossello said Monday he fears a "humanitarian crisis" on the island if the United States does not take "swift action" to help the US territory, which was devastated by deadly Hurricane Maria last week.
https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/world/2017-09-26-puerto-rico-governor-fears-humanitarian-crisis-over-slow-us-aid/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/25/why-puerto-rico-could-be-a-trump-blind-spot/

Cedar

Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #24 on: September 26, 2017, 02:29:19 PM »
just talked to my husband.  He said that J and family have tickets for Sunday 24, if the airport is open by then.

The arrived in Utah late last night.  whew.

Offline Carl

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #25 on: September 26, 2017, 02:33:21 PM »
The arrived in Utah late last night.  whew.

Good to hear the made it.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #26 on: September 26, 2017, 03:03:44 PM »
2,600 troops are conducting various operations in Puerto Rico including USS Kearsarge and 8 UH-60s Blackhawks from Fort Campbell in addition to Puerto Rico's contingent of the Army National Guard. 

https://www.stripes.com/news/military-conducting-multiple-operations-to-help-hurricane-maria-struck-puerto-rico-virgin-islands-1.489496#.Wcq5Z7AUlCx


Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #27 on: September 26, 2017, 07:46:53 PM »

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #28 on: September 26, 2017, 08:39:38 PM »
The Red Cross and ARRL are looking for 50 volunteer hams to fly down and handle emergency traffic for three weeks: http://www.arrl.org/news/american-red-cross-asks-arrl-s-assistance-with-puerto-rico-relief-effort  It'll be interesting to see how the RC performs in organizing a big cross-organization effort like this.

Offline RitaRose1945

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Re: Hurricane Maria
« Reply #29 on: September 26, 2017, 08:41:14 PM »
The Red Cross and ARRL are looking for 50 volunteer hams to fly down and handle emergency traffic for three weeks: http://www.arrl.org/news/american-red-cross-asks-arrl-s-assistance-with-puerto-rico-relief-effort  It'll be interesting to see how the RC performs in organizing a big cross-organization effort like this.

I'm only a Tech, so I'm out, but it would be nice to be on the ground and helping.