Author Topic: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..  (Read 2785 times)

Offline chad

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Tropical depression 16

It not much now but that could change.

Offline RitaRose1945

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2017, 11:57:31 AM »
No, not another one!

Any ideas where it could wind up?

I'm keeping an eye on Trump right now, so I can't look.

Offline chad

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2017, 12:05:59 PM »
Looks like it'll be around mobile AL and Tallahassee FL

Offline RitaRose1945

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2017, 12:23:45 PM »
Looks like it'll be around mobile AL and Tallahassee FL

Ugh.  Thanks for the info.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2017, 12:44:49 PM »

WTNT21 KNHC 041438
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162017
1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SANDY BAY SIRPI NORTHWARD TO THE
HONDURAS BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
BORDER WITH NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  81.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  81.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  81.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.7N  82.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.8N  83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.3N  84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.9N  85.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N  87.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 29.0N  86.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 34.5N  82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N  81.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z


Cedar

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2017, 05:18:04 PM »
The latest batch of models (5pm EDT) are all pointing to the New Orleans area, give or take a hundred miles.  The NHC's composite forecast points toward Ft. Walton area, with everything from New Orleans to Cedar Key in the cone of uncertainty.

A lot depends on when and how hard this oncoming cold front shoves the storm to the east.  Will the front shear the storm and weaken it?  Will the storm make a 45 degree turn Saturday afternoon and head to Florida, or will it barrel on straight into... well, my backyard?
:popcorn:

Looking on the good side, things have cooled down a lot around here – highs in the mid-80's, lows around 70 – so the Gulf's started cooling down a little too.  That'll make for a low Cat 2, tops, I'm guessing.  But even that's enough.

Offline Bradbn4

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2017, 10:16:53 AM »
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Is one of the go to sites I follow...

two fun objects in the gulf area; both are worth keeping an eye on

Offline Cedar

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2017, 07:18:57 AM »
New Orleans under state of emergency as Nate approaches. Nate is forecast to gain force as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday and strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane by the time it makes landfall late Saturday or early Sunday along the US Gulf Coast.

Cedar

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2017, 03:17:20 PM »
Home a little early today to deal with weekend chores.  That'll leave tomorrow to board up.  Probably not worth the bother, but it's better than getting a random tree limb through a window.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Is one of the go to sites I follow...

NHC is very good.  I also watch Weatherunderground's hurricane site:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane?index_region=at
It gives a little more background information and discussion, and some model results without being an overwhelming junk pile like some of the other sites.

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2017, 08:57:06 AM »
Just finished boarding up and squaring away the yard.  That tends to make hurricanes go elsewhere. ;)   The wind is picking up a little, but it's nothing strong.  It was dead still this morning, blowing maybe 15 or 20 mph now.

It looks like this storm will go in a little east of us.  That would put us on the "good" side of the storm, not so good for Pascagoula and Mobile.  Having said that, the uncertainty is still large enough that it's safest to prepare for a direct strike.  Also, Nate built into a Cat 1 about 12 hours faster than predicted, so it's not going to be one of those "just barely a hurricane" storms.  Nothing bad, but still nothing to joke about either.

Offline chad

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2017, 09:44:17 AM »
Just finished boarding up and squaring away the yard.  That tends to make hurricanes go elsewhere. ;)   The wind is picking up a little, but it's nothing strong.  It was dead still this morning, blowing maybe 15 or 20 mph now.

It looks like this storm will go in a little east of us.  That would put us on the "good" side of the storm, not so good for Pascagoula and Mobile.  Having said that, the uncertainty is still large enough that it's safest to prepare for a direct strike.  Also, Nate built into a Cat 1 about 12 hours faster than predicted, so it's not going to be one of those "just barely a hurricane" storms.  Nothing bad, but still nothing to joke about either.

I'm sure your as preped as you can be..

Just a thought, go out and get a couple large pizzas, we all know from are younger days they'll still be good for 3 or 4 days just sitting on the counter :)

If there's a silver lining it's that nate moving fast 26 mph now.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2017, 09:17:30 PM »
Hurricane Nate made US landfall Saturday night as a Category 1 storm near the mouth of the Mississippi River in southeast Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory on the storm.

A second landfall is likely on the Mississippi coast a few hours after the eye of the storm passes over the Chandeleur Sound.

Cedar

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2017, 09:23:04 PM »
I'm sure your as preped as you can be..
Oh yeah.  With a lot of help over the years from this forum.  8)

Quote
Just a thought, go out and get a couple large pizzas, we all know from are younger days they'll still be good for 3 or 4 days just sitting on the counter :)
Funny, we did do some cooking today.  A few extra burgers, an extra frozen pizza, all in easy-to-grab ziplocks in the refrigerator.

Quote
If there's a silver lining it's that nate moving fast 26 mph now.
It's a Gulf speed record.  Which is pretty nice, this thing isn't hanging around.  The forward speed is down to "only" 20 mph, should be mostly through by 1 a.m.  The last outer rain band just passed and we're in a relatively calm gap.  Next big band is the eye wall, in about 20 minutes.  So far so good!

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2017, 10:37:13 PM »
Eye wall's coming ashore now.  Just had some minor power flickers, but the power and the net are staying up.  So far so good here.  It's the people over in Ocean Springs who are catching it now.

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2017, 11:00:49 PM »
May be speaking too soon, but it looks like the worst of this thing as moved ashore.  MS Power outage maps shows things are mostly still up, so that's good.  I'm going to look around the yard and turn in. 

Offline Redman

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2017, 03:21:41 AM »
Moving right along.


Offline Cedar

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2017, 06:35:29 AM »
I am amazed that Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky are going to get Nate. Is this not unusual that a hurricane goes inland so far?

Cedar

Offline Redman

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2017, 06:52:35 AM »
The track seems a little more north than usual but not much. It's moving quickly and will be probably be mostly a rain event.

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2017, 07:36:25 AM »
I am amazed that Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky are going to get Nate. Is this not unusual that a hurricane goes inland so far?
It's a pretty common way for things to go, especially when they're moving this fast.  Sometimes there's a lot more damage from flooding far inland.  Weird how that works.

Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2017, 07:54:53 AM »
I am amazed that Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky are going to get Nate. Is this not unusual that a hurricane goes inland so far?

Cedar

when I lived in upstate NY in college, there were times that we would get heavy rainstorms that we knew were remnants of hurricanes further south.

Offline RitaRose1945

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2017, 09:33:34 AM »
I am amazed that Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky are going to get Nate. Is this not unusual that a hurricane goes inland so far?

Cedar

By that point, it has been over land so long that it's just a depression or maybe a storm instead of a hurricane.

Offline chad

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #21 on: October 08, 2017, 09:42:38 AM »
Any damage to your property Alan?

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #22 on: October 08, 2017, 10:50:54 AM »
No damage here, Chad, thanks.  I just got back from a quick bike ride around town and there was no damage anywhere that I could see.  A little bit of debris is on the beach and the walkway there, but I've seen worse after a winter storm.

I've got a busy afternoon of un-locking-down things, putting antennas back up, all that.  And I still have to touch base with a few friends to the east, make sure they don't need a hand clearing the yard.  But overall it was a big fat nothing of a storm this far west.  Just the way I like'em!

Offline chad

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #23 on: October 08, 2017, 11:00:58 AM »
No damage here, Chad, thanks.  I just got back from a quick bike ride around town and there was no damage anywhere that I could see.  A little bit of debris is on the beach and the walkway there, but I've seen worse after a winter storm.

I've got a busy afternoon of un-locking-down things, putting antennas back up, all that.  And I still have to touch base with a few friends to the east, make sure they don't need a hand clearing the yard.  But overall it was a big fat nothing of a storm this far west.  Just the way I like'em!

Good to hear...

This has been a crazy hurricane season.

Offline Cedar

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #24 on: October 08, 2017, 06:40:47 PM »
It was the plywood, wasn't it?

Cedar


Offline Alan Georges

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #25 on: October 08, 2017, 07:24:22 PM »
It was the plywood, wasn't it?
Well yeah.  Covering your windows is a proven method for making hurricanes calm down and go elsewhere.  Totally worked this time.

OTOH, broken generators attract hurricanes like flies to honey.

Offline Carl

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #26 on: October 09, 2017, 07:58:13 AM »
  You didn't even get to use your preps ::)

Offline Alan Georges

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Re: Folks in the gulf might want to turn on the weather channel today..
« Reply #27 on: October 09, 2017, 05:34:45 PM »
Oh yes I did! :)  All of those window boards are a kind of prepping.  And my shoulders can tell you all about'em....

Everybody I've talked with today has just been wiped out.  It wasn't a bad storm, but getting things together beforehand (window boards, testing generators, etc.) then bouncing around the house for a day waiting for this thing to come ashore, then taking down and storing boards afterward, it's wearing.  And this was a nothing of a storm!  I think most people will be pretty well recovered by tomorrow, definitely by the weekend.

Anyway, all's well that ends well.  Thanks to everyone (especially Cedar) for checking in on things.