Poll

Would the Gov. notify us of a missile launch against CONUS?

Yes
No

Author Topic: Poll #1: Would they tell us?  (Read 1331 times)

Offline The Professor

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Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« on: May 16, 2018, 01:25:29 PM »
Over the next few weeks, I'm going to post a few polls to get some opinions and discussions going.

These are going to center around a potential missile launch against the Continental United States (CONUS) by a belligerent State Actor.    In other words: Another country decides to launch a nuclear or EMP missile against the U.S.

While I'm not limiting this to one country or another, let's use North Korea as an example.  It has been suggested that, were NK to launch a missile (for this discussion, using the Hwasong 14 ICBM), it would take approximately 39 minutes and 30 seconds to reach the Chicago, Illinois area.  Any way you look at it, that's not a long time.

The first question in this series is not as simple as it may appear.  Do you believe that the US government would notify it's citizens through whatever method possible or available that a missile, or missiles, has been launched against the continental United States?

I'm not looking for when or how, but for whether you believe such a notice would occur.

Your opinions and discussion, please:

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2018, 01:38:45 PM »
With only 40 minutes notice, and the fact that we no longer have any public, or government encouraged private, civil defense facilities, I believe they would think that it would lead to panic and loss of life due to panic, so they would give no notice and try to take the missiles out.

We no longer even have drills at school, duck and cover, etc... So, without any set thing for the population at large to do.... ( whether it would be useful or not isnt the point, it is that there is no recommended procedure any longer for people to follow)

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2018, 01:51:04 PM »
They will.  They have gamed the sh*t out of it, even a very small amount of warning (a minute or two) can reduce casualties dramatically.  Also, the systems that display the detection is in real time, numerous people along the chain can inform different populations.  No one can clamp down on it completely, it would require a deliberate falsehood that will suddenly be proven wrong.  The most likely scenario is that someone might think it is a false alarm or be hoping it is, and that their hestitation would give us a very short time window to notice the emergency and take action.  Its a real concern for the individual, prompt warning could give us 10 or so minutes to find much better shelter, however we could have as little as a minute or two.

As to not having drills, *shrug*, following the tornado drill procedure is good enough to be MUCH better than a complete surprise.  This is not something that average non-prepared Joe has a great deal to prepare for.  Non-prepared Joe needs one lecture and a single run through and he is way better off than before AND 70% of the way to where he can get without becoming some level of prepper.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2018, 02:01:20 PM »
They will.  They have gamed the sh*t out of it, even a very small amount of warning (a minute or two) can reduce casualties dramatically.  Also, the systems that display the detection is in real time, numerous people along the chain can inform different populations.  No one can clamp down on it completely, it would require a deliberate falsehood that will suddenly be proven wrong.  The most likely scenario is that someone might think it is a false alarm or be hoping it is, and that their hestitation would give us a very short time window to notice the emergency and take action.  Its a real concern for the individual, prompt warning could give us 10 or so minutes to find much better shelter, however we could have as little as a minute or two.

As to not having drills, *shrug*, following the tornado drill procedure is good enough to be MUCH better than a complete surprise.  This is not something that average non-prepared Joe has a great deal to prepare for.  Non-prepared Joe needs one lecture and a single run through and he is way better off than before AND 70% of the way to where he can get without becoming some level of prepper.

I agree that a few simple steps could make a big difference, I just dont think anyone has bothered to tell average joe what they are. I am glad you think they would tell us, as I can think of a couple (non-ideal) places I might want to shelter in, with a few blankets, buckets, water, etc...... I just have never seen anything to the general public that has let them know to be prepared to stay in a spot with as much mass around them as possible, to tape infiltration etc... 

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2018, 02:12:17 PM »
Follow up question...

How would we (our military) respond?

So a single Hwasong 14 is hypothetically coming at us.  Is that the expected attack vector?  Would NK send more, is that all they have?  Do we know what to expect?

The reason this may matter is sniffing out either a false alarm or an accident.  If we go back to the peak of the Cold War, we had the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction.  Basically one ICBM was the same as all of them, because of retaliatory strikes.

Do we pinpoint the origin of the missile, and send a measured response? 
What consequences does that have?

Will China/Russia/others do anything if we send missiles at NK (or whomever attacked first)? 
Is there a global system for all nuclear powers to understand the origins of ICBM launches, or could we easily get into a he said/she said argument?

There are so many ways this stuff can go sideways...



Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2018, 02:19:37 PM »
I kind of got off on a tangent so I want to revisit that we have an integrated, real time updating air defense picture.  It doesn't just display at NORAD at Peterson AFB and their backup CP in the mountain.  It should be displaying in every state EOC, every AFB with the feed, the National Military Command Center in the Pentagon, the FAA, I am dead sure the secret service has it.  Additionally, Canada has the feed from their NORAD and NORTHCOM branches in Canada.  The EMP concerns probably has a LOT more entities monitoring.

They are going to notify because they cant stop the word from getting out.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2018, 02:23:48 PM »
Follow up question...

How would we (our military) respond?

So a single Hwasong 14 is hypothetically coming at us.  Is that the expected attack vector?  Would NK send more, is that all they have?  Do we know what to expect?

The reason this may matter is sniffing out either a false alarm or an accident.  If we go back to the peak of the Cold War, we had the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction.  Basically one ICBM was the same as all of them, because of retaliatory strikes.

Do we pinpoint the origin of the missile, and send a measured response? 
What consequences does that have?

Will China/Russia/others do anything if we send missiles at NK (or whomever attacked first)? 
Is there a global system for all nuclear powers to understand the origins of ICBM launches, or could we easily get into a he said/she said argument?

There are so many ways this stuff can go sideways...

Absolutely a million ways it could go pear shaped. 

The good thing is a single missile strike does not demand an instant massive response.  A large strike creates a tremendous pressure to get our Minuteman missiles out of their holes before they get taken out by the incoming strike.  But a single bird, from a nation that is not thought to have a large number of weapons, should not create as much pressure to respond instantly.  Especially since the US has options that might stop such a threat.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2018, 02:25:29 PM »
OBTW,  just because I think TPTB would try to issue an attack warning, does not mean I don't believe we should prepare for a strike.  We should prepare for a strike and for getting little or no warning...'cause you never know.

Offline Smurf Hunter

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2018, 02:39:06 PM »
Does all that suggest there's some chance of us defending against a single missile?

Offline David in MN

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2018, 02:45:58 PM »
Of course they'd tell us something. Whether it was anywhere close to the truth is anyone's guess. They reported on the Maine and the Lusitania after all.

I more worry that we'll be fed bad info. I fear stories like, "The North Korean nuculear missile was delivered to the launch site using oil from Iran." That's the goofy logic of the past 20 years.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2018, 03:17:45 PM »
Does all that suggest there's some chance of us defending against a single missile?

Yes.

Whether it works *shrug*?  I prefer it to "none."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-Based_Midcourse_Defense


Offline DDJ

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2018, 11:15:06 AM »
I personally do not believe that the Government would tell us not because it does not want to but, because they are incapable of clearing all the communications hurdles to align all the tools to get the message out.  NORAD, or NRO or whoever is on watch these days, would see it.  They push it up to the Pentagon as Flash traffic after confirming then drafting the message. The Pentagon would trigger the Emergency alert system, after recording a message.  The relays at the TV and Radio stations would switch from the "regularly scheduled programming" and the prepared message would go out.  I would guess that it would just take too long.  Those steps are not drilled and backed up enough any more with Russia no longer the threat they were in the 70s and 80s.  I actually doubt that we would be able to respond, launch counter measures I would give a maybe, before the impact of Missile one.  Just because we cannot get out of our own way.  There also could be some level of "you are on your own, Good night" thinking.  Was that a Robin Williams bit from the 80?

I hope I am wrong on that point.

In your depicted scenario I would want to be as ready as possible, preferably headed to my home, but in a full on attack from a fully armed and capable nation I think the smarted place to be would be on the roof with a lawn chair and some good glass so I have the best possible view.

Offline Stwood

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2018, 04:11:37 PM »
I would think that they have a notification system already setup.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2018, 04:39:28 PM »
Regardless of formal notification, the likely missiles headed in the other direction would be a tip-off...




Offline bcksknr

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2018, 05:55:14 PM »
     I'm a "child of the Cold War" and was amazed when I found out that crouching under a wooden school desk would not protect you from the effects of a nuclear detonation. When I was in grade school, there was initially a "go plan and a stay plan". Parents could elect to have their children shelter in place at school or be released to scamper home. This, of course, was when the Soviet's delivery system would have been by bombers flying over the North Pole and their inevitable detection by the various defensive radar lines in Canada and Alaska. There would have been hours of warning. With the advent of ICBMs the warning time was perhaps 30 minutes and so the "go plan" was abandoned. We were about eight miles West of Milwaukee, a prime urban target.
     I don't believe that the government would have done much more than to turn on the air raid sirens and perhaps activated the CONELRAD radio frequencies. I believe that in the ensuing disbelief and or panic, a warning would have made much difference. This was in a time when Civil Defense was in full operation and there were great efforts to educate the public. There was also a national program of identifying and stocking shelters. "Duck and Cover" drills were a weekly occurrence.
     Of course, all that is history. I don't think most people have any idea of what to do in case of an attack, even a limited one and not the apocalypse envisioned during the '60s. I don't think many even consider that a nuclear exchange could happen. The world is no longer on a "razor's edge" of anticipated destruction. Public instruction in terms of nuclear survival is non-existent. Very few today would have given it a second thought, leaving that sort of "doomy oddness" to those crazy Preppers. Maybe a warning would have saved some lives a while ago, but today I believe the public reaction would lead to 1, a "deer in the headlights" stare of disbelief and immobility or 2, a full-on "fill your drawers" panic accompanied by much flapping of arms and running in circles.
     As the local disaster official told me, when I asked (a few years back) what plans the nearby city had made to deal with a nuclear event, he said that "tornadoes, floods or blizzards, we got that got covered, nuclear attack...get real.".   
 

Offline fritz_monroe

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2018, 07:42:46 PM »
I answered yes.  However that really depends on where the attack is coming from.  If it's coming from North Korea, I think that they would tell us.  My thinking is that NK has a limited number of missiles.  Americans in general don't really see NK as much of a threat.  If little kim launches a missile at us, it's easily going to hit California.  But the vast majority of the U.S. do not see NK as a threat that can't be countered.

But if Russia does it, we can't launch countermeasures against all of them.  The .gov would likely try to get the powers into a safe space and would launch a counter attack.  But many of them are going to get through.  Telling the public that Russia launched missiles will only cause panic.

Offline David in MN

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2018, 06:21:00 AM »
I'm amazed. The faith in this system is laughable at best. Of course they'd tell us something. They'd tell us "the missiles came from North Korea funded by Russia supplied by Iranian 'loose cake uranium' (or some other made up term) and powered by an Assad missile. Heck, they'd tell us the warhead was designed by Eskimos if furthered a war effort.

You have to ask one simple question when you deal with government. "Stupid or liar?" A member of Congress who thinks he will drive 4 hours to the Greenbriar bunker given 20 minutes notice of a Soviet nuke is stupid.

Lying... that's even easier. I guess the rest of us believe the Bay of Tonkin story. WMDs? Here's a kooky idea we all believe: a bunch of Saudis hijacked some planes and killed a lot of people so we need to invade Afghanistan and Iraq and do the bidding of the Saudis to correct it.

I harp on this because it's an easy win. James Clapper lies to the Senate under oath and we can all watch it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGYn7ER5U_0

If James Clapper testified that cheeseburgers were deadly I WOULD ONLY EAT CHEESEBURGERS. Why would I rely on him for anything?

And if the lying/stupid government isn't enough why trust the media to report it right? Walter Duranty got all the awards for forwarding Soviet propaganda. All the media companies bought into Iraq III.

Maybe I can best explain this by being blunt. If I turned on NBC and they had video of some CIA director claiming that New York City would be nuked by Iran tomorrow I would pack the car and go to NYC confident that they bungled the information and that if 49 states got nuked New York would be the only holdout and in such a case Iran had nothing to do with it. That's the level of trust they've earned.

Offline bcksknr

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2018, 08:00:28 AM »
     Liars lying about lies. That's pretty much what we are dealing with. Each person has their own agenda and depending on their mental state and morality, will do or say whatever they think will support their version of reality and goals. This is especially true in government. The higher up the governmental food chain, the more flexible the truth becomes. As Rudy G. said "the truth is not the truth".
     What better way to indirectly attack another country than to plant the seeds of doubt and mistrust in their population? If done correctly, it costs very little and doesn't invite meaningful retaliation. By driving the wedge of division and mistrust, through misinformation, between people, the media and their government, you can paralyze
their ability to function. It becomes a distracting "tug of war" between intransigent groups, that dig in so hard that no movement is possible. And then there is the hatred...
     When two people, stuck in a house that is burning, can't compromise on a way out, because they each they have been convinced that only they have the "true" plan to save themselves, they both die.
     Telling the public that a nuclear strike is on it's way or not, is irrelavent. The government would do or say whatever would be in it's own best interest. If a limited strike from N.K. (real or invented) would be the mechanism to get public support for a massive U.S. "counterstrike"... If convincing the public that Iraq had WMD and was close to nuclear capability, to whip up support for war... If using the 9/11 attacks to justify our disastrous 17 year long war in Afghanistan "The Graveyard of Empires"... and so it goes, on and on.
     We have been lied to and (misinformed on an almost daily basis) manipulated forever. We are used to it. Our enemies gleefully watch as one side believes everything as gospel while the other side doesn't trust anything. We are fighting ourselves. Our nation is destroying itself from within.
     No need to use nuclear weapons; no need to wonder if our government would or wouldn't tell us. While we mire ourselves down with who is the "truthier", the rest of the world moves on.         

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #18 on: September 13, 2018, 08:53:55 AM »
I think a lot of these replies are missing or redirecting from the OP.  Would TPTB inform or attempt to inform the population of a nation state nuclear strike directed at the US?

Of course they would.  Whether the average person would get the word "in time" is another matter and not germane to the OP.  Additionally, what they would later attribute it to is another matter entirely and beyond the scope of the post.

1) There is a structure for it (notifying people), no matter how kludgy it may or may not be, if there is one thing the government does it is run their checklist no matter how poorly.  Mid-level bureaucrats don't want to go down in history as the person who does nothing.  They will lose a little time asking for verification, but they will execute.
2) The system for detecting incoming weapons is layered, redundant and international.  It is not possible for a person to lie about the point of origin of a missile and expect to get away with it for more than an hour...and if they lie about it to launch a  counter-strike on a third country they WILL go down in the history books with Hitler.   Numerous other countries, including ones that don't like us or just would like to tweak us, would know the truth and talk immediately.
3) The warning system is decentralized.  The pushing of "the button" to initiate warnings does not all lie with the feds.  States and decentralized military elements also will get the radar and IR feed in real time and some will choose to warn early even if someone is dithering elsewhere such as at the national level.  No one person has exclusive control of the broadcast overrides, warning sirens, telecommunications notification systems, etc.  Even if TPTB (FEMA director, President, etc) decided "nah, why warn them, let them enjoy the last 5 minutes of their lives" other elements would execute a partial notification using what is in their control.  The Continuity Of OPerations (COOP) plans of the government would create a signature even if all that failed.  When the sirens go off at Offat and Barksdale, etc. etc. the housing areas will hear it (and in those commands the housewives know exactly what it means) and you can be dang sure that a watch stander who sees plural birds inbound will have less compunctions than Bradley Manning about saying what he knows to friends, family or his uncle who is a reporter.  What are they going to do, court martial his radioactive remains? How much word gets out before impact?  Hard to say, but there is no reason to think the government could stop The Word from getting out if they wanted to. 
4) The final reason they will notify...as mentioned up thread...notification, even late notification will save a lot of lives.  There are many people where duck and cover will create better outcomes.  Those that do the notifications know this and are very likely to ignore a dithering appointee and hit the button.  Yeah, if you are within 1000 yards of the target you are in deep trouble, but there are a lot of people several miles upwind of the target where 30 seconds of warning can be decisive.