Poll

Would the Gov. notify us of a missile launch against CONUS?

Yes
No

Author Topic: Poll #1: Would they tell us?  (Read 271 times)

Offline The Professor

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Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« on: May 16, 2018, 01:25:29 PM »
Over the next few weeks, I'm going to post a few polls to get some opinions and discussions going.

These are going to center around a potential missile launch against the Continental United States (CONUS) by a belligerent State Actor.    In other words: Another country decides to launch a nuclear or EMP missile against the U.S.

While I'm not limiting this to one country or another, let's use North Korea as an example.  It has been suggested that, were NK to launch a missile (for this discussion, using the Hwasong 14 ICBM), it would take approximately 39 minutes and 30 seconds to reach the Chicago, Illinois area.  Any way you look at it, that's not a long time.

The first question in this series is not as simple as it may appear.  Do you believe that the US government would notify it's citizens through whatever method possible or available that a missile, or missiles, has been launched against the continental United States?

I'm not looking for when or how, but for whether you believe such a notice would occur.

Your opinions and discussion, please:

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2018, 01:38:45 PM »
With only 40 minutes notice, and the fact that we no longer have any public, or government encouraged private, civil defense facilities, I believe they would think that it would lead to panic and loss of life due to panic, so they would give no notice and try to take the missiles out.

We no longer even have drills at school, duck and cover, etc... So, without any set thing for the population at large to do.... ( whether it would be useful or not isnt the point, it is that there is no recommended procedure any longer for people to follow)

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2018, 01:51:04 PM »
They will.  They have gamed the sh*t out of it, even a very small amount of warning (a minute or two) can reduce casualties dramatically.  Also, the systems that display the detection is in real time, numerous people along the chain can inform different populations.  No one can clamp down on it completely, it would require a deliberate falsehood that will suddenly be proven wrong.  The most likely scenario is that someone might think it is a false alarm or be hoping it is, and that their hestitation would give us a very short time window to notice the emergency and take action.  Its a real concern for the individual, prompt warning could give us 10 or so minutes to find much better shelter, however we could have as little as a minute or two.

As to not having drills, *shrug*, following the tornado drill procedure is good enough to be MUCH better than a complete surprise.  This is not something that average non-prepared Joe has a great deal to prepare for.  Non-prepared Joe needs one lecture and a single run through and he is way better off than before AND 70% of the way to where he can get without becoming some level of prepper.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2018, 02:01:20 PM »
They will.  They have gamed the sh*t out of it, even a very small amount of warning (a minute or two) can reduce casualties dramatically.  Also, the systems that display the detection is in real time, numerous people along the chain can inform different populations.  No one can clamp down on it completely, it would require a deliberate falsehood that will suddenly be proven wrong.  The most likely scenario is that someone might think it is a false alarm or be hoping it is, and that their hestitation would give us a very short time window to notice the emergency and take action.  Its a real concern for the individual, prompt warning could give us 10 or so minutes to find much better shelter, however we could have as little as a minute or two.

As to not having drills, *shrug*, following the tornado drill procedure is good enough to be MUCH better than a complete surprise.  This is not something that average non-prepared Joe has a great deal to prepare for.  Non-prepared Joe needs one lecture and a single run through and he is way better off than before AND 70% of the way to where he can get without becoming some level of prepper.

I agree that a few simple steps could make a big difference, I just dont think anyone has bothered to tell average joe what they are. I am glad you think they would tell us, as I can think of a couple (non-ideal) places I might want to shelter in, with a few blankets, buckets, water, etc...... I just have never seen anything to the general public that has let them know to be prepared to stay in a spot with as much mass around them as possible, to tape infiltration etc... 

Online Smurf Hunter

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2018, 02:12:17 PM »
Follow up question...

How would we (our military) respond?

So a single Hwasong 14 is hypothetically coming at us.  Is that the expected attack vector?  Would NK send more, is that all they have?  Do we know what to expect?

The reason this may matter is sniffing out either a false alarm or an accident.  If we go back to the peak of the Cold War, we had the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction.  Basically one ICBM was the same as all of them, because of retaliatory strikes.

Do we pinpoint the origin of the missile, and send a measured response? 
What consequences does that have?

Will China/Russia/others do anything if we send missiles at NK (or whomever attacked first)? 
Is there a global system for all nuclear powers to understand the origins of ICBM launches, or could we easily get into a he said/she said argument?

There are so many ways this stuff can go sideways...



Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2018, 02:19:37 PM »
I kind of got off on a tangent so I want to revisit that we have an integrated, real time updating air defense picture.  It doesn't just display at NORAD at Peterson AFB and their backup CP in the mountain.  It should be displaying in every state EOC, every AFB with the feed, the National Military Command Center in the Pentagon, the FAA, I am dead sure the secret service has it.  Additionally, Canada has the feed from their NORAD and NORTHCOM branches in Canada.  The EMP concerns probably has a LOT more entities monitoring.

They are going to notify because they cant stop the word from getting out.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2018, 02:23:48 PM »
Follow up question...

How would we (our military) respond?

So a single Hwasong 14 is hypothetically coming at us.  Is that the expected attack vector?  Would NK send more, is that all they have?  Do we know what to expect?

The reason this may matter is sniffing out either a false alarm or an accident.  If we go back to the peak of the Cold War, we had the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction.  Basically one ICBM was the same as all of them, because of retaliatory strikes.

Do we pinpoint the origin of the missile, and send a measured response? 
What consequences does that have?

Will China/Russia/others do anything if we send missiles at NK (or whomever attacked first)? 
Is there a global system for all nuclear powers to understand the origins of ICBM launches, or could we easily get into a he said/she said argument?

There are so many ways this stuff can go sideways...

Absolutely a million ways it could go pear shaped. 

The good thing is a single missile strike does not demand an instant massive response.  A large strike creates a tremendous pressure to get our Minuteman missiles out of their holes before they get taken out by the incoming strike.  But a single bird, from a nation that is not thought to have a large number of weapons, should not create as much pressure to respond instantly.  Especially since the US has options that might stop such a threat.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2018, 02:25:29 PM »
OBTW,  just because I think TPTB would try to issue an attack warning, does not mean I don't believe we should prepare for a strike.  We should prepare for a strike and for getting little or no warning...'cause you never know.

Online Smurf Hunter

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2018, 02:39:06 PM »
Does all that suggest there's some chance of us defending against a single missile?

Offline David in MN

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2018, 02:45:58 PM »
Of course they'd tell us something. Whether it was anywhere close to the truth is anyone's guess. They reported on the Maine and the Lusitania after all.

I more worry that we'll be fed bad info. I fear stories like, "The North Korean nuculear missile was delivered to the launch site using oil from Iran." That's the goofy logic of the past 20 years.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Poll #1: Would they tell us?
« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2018, 03:17:45 PM »
Does all that suggest there's some chance of us defending against a single missile?

Yes.

Whether it works *shrug*?  I prefer it to "none."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-Based_Midcourse_Defense