Author Topic: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots  (Read 4526 times)

Offline Mr. Bill

  • Like a hot cocoa mojito
  • Administrator
  • Forum Veteran
  • *******
  • Posts: 14197
  • Karma: 1853
  • Trained Attack Sheepdog/Troll hunter
    • Website Maintenance and Online Presence Management by Mr. Bill
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #30 on: February 16, 2019, 12:46:55 PM »
Yes, we should never make decisions based on media scare stories.  But this applies equally to the anti-vax scare stories being spread by (and often for the financial benefit of) alternative websites and spokespersons.

It's a complicated issue.  First, we can't get "clean" news, because the news media (including most alternative news sources) are an entertainment/advertising industry.

Between news media and social media, the news we do get is sorted, amplified, or suppressed, in very strange ways (e.g. based on politics, religion, education, social class, etc, rather than on actual truthfulness and reliability).

It's in our nature to be more trusting of people that we like, and who are like us.  So we end up getting a disproportionate amount of our news from people (and media sources) that seem to share our politics, religion, education, social class, etc.

Add to this our love of the hero refusing to surrender in the face of massive opposition.  The right of dissent is vital, but not every dissenter is heroic (or factually correct).  It's easy to slide into conspiracy theories about lone scientists being censored and suppressed -- and to discount the research results from majority scientists.

All of the above is a great culture medium for division and mistrust.  There's evidence that Russia et al are seeding our news stream to encourage this, but us Americans are perfectly capable of doing it all on our own.

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" -- Isaac Asimov, 1980

We assume that every problem requires government legislation, regulation, and enforcement.  But government action is always binary: either something is forbidden or it's allowed.  Even in the rare situations where science can give us a neat binary result (e.g. the Earth is not flat), we argue about it -- and usually, science can only give us probabilities.

Morality (religious or otherwise) doesn't give us binary answers either.  (Thou shalt not kill.  Certain restrictions may apply.  Not available in all areas.  Unlimited right-to-life plans may be limited under some circumstances.)

Complicated enough, even if only one person has to bear the consequences of the decision.  But with vaccination, we've also got:
  • Contagion, and
  • Parents making decisions for children.

For healthcare decisions, are parental rights unlimited?  At present, America says no.  We hear tragic stories of parents who fed their newborn a vegan diet, or prayed instead of phoning 911 when a child was near death from illness or injury.  Most of us agree that these parents should have any surviving children removed from their care, and in some cases should be prosecuted.  So where do we draw the (binary) line?  Everyone seems pretty sure of themselves about where to draw the line on vaccinations.  Why?  What makes your line right and my line wrong?  (Remember, only government can save us, so one of us has to win.)

Here's where I draw my line:

Measles is well documented to be dangerous, because of the disease itself and also because it induces "immune amnesia" so that you lose your resistance to other diseases for a few years.  The measles vaccine, in contrast, is well documented to be non-dangerous for nearly all people.

When measles was common, most of us acquired a little immunity because of frequent exposure to weakened and killed viruses in our environment.  The cost of this natural immunity was that lots of kids suffered the disease, and a few suffered lasting effects or death.  Now that the virus is uncommon, we no longer have this natural immunity (or its cost).  So we MUST replace it with artificial exposure to a safe form of the virus.

If, for no medical reason, you refuse to give your child a measles vaccine, you are a negligent parent.

If you intentionally infect your child with measles, you ought to go to jail.

Sorry if that's too blunt, but that's my opinion.

Offline FreeLancer

  • Global Moderator
  • Survival Veteran
  • ******
  • Posts: 5797
  • Karma: 768
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #31 on: February 16, 2019, 02:10:54 PM »
^^^^^^^^^This!!!!

Well said, Mr Bill. As usual.

Offline iam4liberty

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 3053
  • Karma: 213
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #32 on: February 16, 2019, 02:33:37 PM »
The medical data is easily accessible

Fact: vaccinations are at highest rate in US history.  We are way beyond herd immunity levels for measles and there is no risk of an epidemic.

Fact: measles deaths are at an all time low.  These recent so called pockets have not produced any.  The US is not some third world country with a socialized system where a measles outbreak is a threat.

Fact: the possibility of serious injury or death from measles is far less than participating in academic sports.  There are 10x - 100x more deaths from football than measles https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/09/21/health/football-deaths-season-injuries-high-school-college-trnd/index.html

Fact: vaccines carry their own risk with serious effects including death.  There have been more deaths from vaccine interactions than from measles in last two decades.  Taxpayers have paid out over $4 Billion in compensatory damages.  This isnt to say that vaccines arent a good trade-off just that there is a downside.

Fact: measles is a highly contageous but not very serious disease for children.  Chance of serious complication is somewhere around 1 in 30,000.  Again, this is far lower than children sports, boating, and even agricultural accidents.

Fact: the foster care system has serious issues: https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=130266&page=1  It should only be used when other options are exhausted.

Fact: there is no provision in law for 100% mandatory vaccination. It is against the rule of law to promote such threats.

Some questions:

What happened in last year that turned these loving parents from being viewed as good neighbors and pillars of their community into public enemies who should be imprisoned?

Should parents who allow their children to play sports, go boating, or work on family farm also be thrown in prison?  That is far more dangerous than not being vaccinated for measles.

Do you really believe children will be better off in foster care than with their parents?

When has US turned against freedom of religion?  What do you propose be done to peaceful groups like the Amish, Native Americans, certain Jewish and Islamic adherents?  Also, if, as you imply, these groups now have natural protection built up which the vaccinated population no longer has, wouldnt it be beneficial to retain that against possibility current vaccine becomes inneffective?
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 02:45:34 PM by iam4liberty »

Offline FreeLancer

  • Global Moderator
  • Survival Veteran
  • ******
  • Posts: 5797
  • Karma: 768
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #33 on: February 16, 2019, 03:04:55 PM »
If the consequences of antivax parents’ decisions could be limited solely to the health of their own children, have fun with it. But highly contagious disease doesn’t work that way.

The vaccination rate necessary to sustain measles herd immunity has to remain extremely high, considerably higher than most other vaccine preventable infections, which leaves little wiggle room beyond true medical exemptions.

Offline iam4liberty

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 3053
  • Karma: 213
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #34 on: February 16, 2019, 03:14:31 PM »
If the consequences of antivax parents’ decisions could be limited solely to the health of their own children, have fun with it. But highly contagious disease doesn’t work that way.

The vaccination rate necessary to sustain measles herd immunity has to remain extremely high, considerably higher than most other vaccine preventable infections, which leaves little wiggle room beyond true medical exemptions.

We are way above that rate.  We are at highest measles vaccination rate in US history.  Our rate is so high CDC raised their target because no chance of falling below previous goal. So why the panic now rather than ten years ago? 

See google trends showing the previous false alarm in 2015 and now: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=Measles  Curious how we get these panics.  And you can see from map that they are heavily from Washington and Oregon.

And why measles?  Why not tackle something like tetanus which would have a possible benefit?
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 03:27:18 PM by iam4liberty »

Offline FreeLancer

  • Global Moderator
  • Survival Veteran
  • ******
  • Posts: 5797
  • Karma: 768
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #35 on: February 16, 2019, 03:31:20 PM »
We are way above that rate.  We are at highest measles vaccination rate in US history.  Our rate is so high CDC raised their target because no chance of falling below previous goal. So why the panic now rather than ten years ago? 

Nationwide, perhaps.  But that's no comfort for the working mom with a 6 month old in daycare somewhere near Vancouver, WA.


And why measles?  Why not tackle something like tetanus which would have a possible benefit?

Tetanus isn't contagious.

Offline iam4liberty

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 3053
  • Karma: 213
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #36 on: February 16, 2019, 04:07:01 PM »
Nationwide, perhaps.  But that's no comfort for the working mom with a 6 month old in daycare somewhere near Vancouver, WA.

Tetanus isn't contagious.

Have there been babies dying from measles in Vacouver WA lately?  According to Washington state records there have been no reported babies with measles in 2019.

The reason for tetanus is vaccination rate is in low 60s vs 95% like measles.  There are dozens of deaths per year from tetanus.  Moving measles from 95% to 96% will do nothing but moving tetanus from 65% to 90% would at least have an impact.  In fact, no exemption mandatory measles vaccinations will hurt people.

Offline FreeLancer

  • Global Moderator
  • Survival Veteran
  • ******
  • Posts: 5797
  • Karma: 768
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #37 on: February 16, 2019, 05:11:38 PM »
Have there been babies dying from measles in Vacouver WA lately?  According to Washington state records there have been no reported babies with measles in 2019.

Measles mortality in the US is 1 to 2 deaths per 1000 infections, more likely in those <5 and >20 years old.  With currently reported infection rates in SW Washington in the low hundreds, the lack of a reported death is not unusual, however, about 1 of 4 measles infections require hospitalization and unnecessarily burdens the healthcare system and places immunocompromised patients already hospitalized at risk.  The difficulties involved with preventing the airborne spread of the measles virus in a hospital setting is on a par with smallpox.


The reason for tetanus is vaccination rate is in low 60s vs 95% like measles.  There are dozens of deaths per year from tetanus.  Moving measles from 95% to 96% will do nothing but moving tetanus from 65% to 90% would at least have an impact.  In fact, no exemption mandatory measles vaccinations will hurt people.

Contagious diseases are always going to get more public health attention because the consequences multiply geometrically.  With their safety margins, there's no reason to not encourage increased rates of vaccination for both.  Tetanus has the disadvantage of requiring periodic boosting, so you tend to lose the adults who don't interface with schools or healthcare systems, but the risk dies with them.

In aggregate, moving nationwide immunity to 96% may not make much difference, but moving the ever widening antivax patches out here on the left coast closer to 95% certainly will.

Offline iam4liberty

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 3053
  • Karma: 213
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #38 on: February 16, 2019, 06:12:58 PM »
Measles mortality in the US is 1 to 2 deaths per 1000 infections, more likely in those <5 and >20 years old.  With currently reported infection rates in SW Washington in the low hundreds, the lack of a reported death is not unusual, however, about 1 of 4 measles infections require hospitalization and unnecessarily burdens the healthcare system and places immunocompromised patients already hospitalized at risk.  The difficulties involved with preventing the airborne spread of the measles virus in a hospital setting is on a par with smallpox.

You are mixing apples-and-oranges with infections and CDC reported cases. The 1 in 1,000 figure is from CDC cases from before 1963.  It was based on approximately 500,000 CDC reported severe cases each year where about an average of 450 died. The actual number of infections during this time were about 5 million each year so that number has to be reduced by at least a factor of 10. Also with improvements in nutrition and health technology over last 50 years, current estimates are better than 1 in 30,000.  It could be much lower still.  We simply dont know because there are not enough deaths to do the calculations!

But regardless, your estimates proved the point.  There is nothing to panic over.  There is no way for this to become an epidemic.  David pointed out groups at risk above but even in those communities there is no alarm.  I live near one of the largest Amish communities and they have had zero issues in 50 years!  And with everyone else immunized the risk to anyone else is super miniscule.  It is hard to see where totalitarian solutions are even remotely justified. 

In short, a person in US has far greater chance of dying from a lightening strike or scorpian sting than dying from measles.  Your hypothetical mother and baby are far more likely to die from an auto crash with a vaccinated person than die from measles from an unvaccinated one.  Even ultra-liberal Slate magazine has published on this point.




https://slate.com/technology/2019/02/measles-outbreak-clark-county-overblown.html
SCIENCE
Stop Talking About Measles
News reporting on the measles outbreak has a spotty record.


Over the past few weeks, news of this outbreak has been picked up by the media outside the Pacific Northwest and characterized as a matter of grave, national importance. Stories on the “measles crisis” now suggest that it’s a sign of how the anti-vaccine movement has “metastasized” into something “so much larger and so much bigger” than it’s ever been before; that fake news about vaccines has grown more potent and persuasive on social media; and that, as a result of all this meme-contagion, an infectious disease that was once declared “completely eliminated” in the U.S. is in the midst of a deadly, disheartening comeback that’s “spreading fast.”

These claims are all misleading. The anti-vaxxer movement isn’t really on the rise all across America, and measles hasn’t really re-emerged from clinical oblivion or become a fatal threat to everyone’s well-being.
...
The number of Americans who die from measles every year, in this era of resurgence, matches up to the annual number of Americans who get killed by scorpions.
...
In the meantime, let’s be wary of the claim that we’ve been taken by extremists to the brink of a catastrophe. For now, the outbreak of disease in Clark County isn’t likely to spread that far beyond the troubled community in which it started. Misleading viral outrage, on the other hand, appears to have no end to its transmission




Offline David in MN

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1729
  • Karma: 126
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #39 on: February 17, 2019, 06:30:16 AM »
It's the age old debate between salacious news and those who can do math. That was my initial balk at the article. Lumping 30% unvaccinated with 5% is just poor data analysis. When combined with a scale that I think bends the truth a little I see an analysis that is heavily biased. But I have years doing data analysis, stock trade, and have taken classes like Tufte's on data. This stuff sticks out to me like a sore thumb.

The choice to vaccinate is nothing but a statistical decision. Suppose I could show that the drive to the doctor represents more risk than the disease being immunized for. Statistically the correct choice is to stay home. The only question is accurately balancing risk.

When I do vaccine analysis for my daughter (she is vaccinated per the schedule) I have a different risk model. Cities with risk would be like Minneapolis, NYC, or San Francisco. Cities where I know have communities at risk. Or if I had a job that put me in front of travelers. If work demands travel it's probably a safer bet to get vaccinated.

I do not understand the great measles scare. All the data I see leads me to believe it has been largely either contained in communities or spread in high-travel areas (we must note that when it spreads in an amusement park we have very little data on the effected parties). We have the highest vaccine rates in history. We are the most attentive in history with regard to keeping sick kids home. It's such a mundane thing that the CDC reports every case and they're still small.

I feel compelled to say I feel horrible for kids who fall ill. It's a bad disease. But if we're being honest pools, cars, bathtubs, and stairs are all much higher risk.

Offline David in MN

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1729
  • Karma: 126
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #40 on: February 17, 2019, 09:24:01 AM »
Following up on actual data... 9 countries make MMR mandatory... Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech, France, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Poland, and Slovakia.

We have a global measles immunization rate that is a staggering 85% according to the WHO. Africa is the laggard in measles immunization and they still clock in at 73%. Europe is the in the lead with 94%.

It's so under control that the CDC admits the #1 way Americans get measles is international travel. For the most part in North America and Europe we beat it.

Now let's apply this actual data to the NME "heat map". It's data is so nebulous it's top category (5-30%) would cover Europe and Africa. In other words this data is so poorly presented it can't distinguish between the most and least immunized parts of the world.

For all the fear mongering about this bogeyman I can't find the data to support it. If anything we should be bragging about the success. We're getting near 3/4 immunization rates in some of the poorest parts of the world and hopefully that trend continues. Maybe I'm missing something but the numbers bear out a very positive story.

Offline Mr. Bill

  • Like a hot cocoa mojito
  • Administrator
  • Forum Veteran
  • *******
  • Posts: 14197
  • Karma: 1853
  • Trained Attack Sheepdog/Troll hunter
    • Website Maintenance and Online Presence Management by Mr. Bill
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #41 on: February 17, 2019, 01:16:19 PM »
Links to what the CDC says:
https://www.cdc.gov/measles/parent-infographic.html
https://www.cdc.gov/measles/about/complications.html

Relevant quotes:

Quote
About 1 out of 4 people who get measles will be hospitalized.

Ear infections occur in about one out of every 10 children with measles and can result in permanent hearing loss.

As many as one out of every 20 children with measles gets pneumonia, the most common cause of death from measles in young children.

About one child out of every 1,000 who get measles will develop encephalitis (swelling of the brain) that can lead to convulsions and can leave the child deaf or with intellectual disability.

For every 1,000 children who get measles, one or two will die from it.

Believe that or not, as you prefer.

Chance of serious complication is somewhere around 1 in 30,000.

That number is so wildly in disagreement with the CDC that I can't take it seriously.  One in four hospitalized, one in twenty with pneumonia.  Those are "serious complications".

Offline FreeLancer

  • Global Moderator
  • Survival Veteran
  • ******
  • Posts: 5797
  • Karma: 768
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #42 on: February 17, 2019, 01:47:46 PM »
You are mixing apples-and-oranges with infections and CDC reported cases. The 1 in 1,000 figure is from CDC cases from before 1963.  It was based on approximately 500,000 CDC reported severe cases each year where about an average of 450 died. The actual number of infections during this time were about 5 million each year so that number has to be reduced by at least a factor of 10. Also with improvements in nutrition and health technology over last 50 years, current estimates are better than 1 in 30,000.  It could be much lower still.  We simply dont know because there are not enough deaths to do the calculations!

But consider the underreported pneumonia and encephalitis deaths from undiagnosed measles infection, too.

Recent outbreaks in the EU over the last decade continue to support the CDC mortality estimates. This is not a benign childhood infection.

By any definition, going from an endemic rate of zero to a hundred cases is an epidemic for that region and raises concerns about what’s going on in that population. In SW WA, what’s going on is there are schools where 25% of the students aren’t vaccinated, that’s nowhere close to providing herd immunity against measles.

It’s not a pandemic or a cause for panic. But it shows the consequences of dropping below the herd immunity threshold when sufficient numbers opt out of vaccination. And expressing the need for improvement doesn’t deserve the knee jerk label of totalitarianism. These are age old issues we’ve grappled with in public health and they’re not getting any easier.

I’m waiting for the first civil suit for negligence against a parent whose unvaccinated child leads to the death or disability of another. With genotyping and outbreak investigation techniques, it wouldn’t be difficult to connect the dots.

Offline David in MN

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1729
  • Karma: 126
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #43 on: February 17, 2019, 02:32:11 PM »
Well I guess we could use some obscure "herd immunity metric".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

Or rather than relying on Rsubnaught dot S = 1 (of which all those metrics are simply made up) we could rely on real world data. There's also a very strange lack of confidence interval in the "herd immunity" crowd. There's a statistical error in assuming that a possibly afflicted group is all the same. 100 susceptible kids in New York City and 100 in upstate North Dakota aren't the same.

Dot multiplication assumes a linear response and this is far from a linear result. You can't just dot two numbers; it ignores vector math and confidence. This is so oversimplified math that has no grounding in reality. And our real world results don't show that immunization is a driver of preventing disease. Travel is the key driver with measles.

The worst immunization stats in the US are in line with the average in China. And I'd go there without a second thought. My wife spent a month there.

Offline FreeLancer

  • Global Moderator
  • Survival Veteran
  • ******
  • Posts: 5797
  • Karma: 768
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #44 on: February 17, 2019, 03:40:41 PM »
And our real world results don't show that immunization is a driver of preventing disease. Travel is the key driver with measles.

Obviously travel is the only way measles can enter a population with no endemic disease.  But once here it spreads among those with no immunity, which 99% of the time turn out to be unvaccinated individuals living in an undervaccinated subpopulation, ie, insufficient herd immunity.  That's what's being observed in WA schools right now, along with Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn, a couple of travelers ignite outbreaks that spread to dozens more.

Offline David in MN

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1729
  • Karma: 126
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #45 on: February 17, 2019, 04:35:50 PM »
Obviously travel is the only way measles can enter a population with no endemic disease.  But once here it spreads among those with no immunity, which 99% of the time turn out to be unvaccinated individuals living in an undervaccinated subpopulation, ie, insufficient herd immunity.  That's what's being observed in WA schools right now, along with Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn, a couple of travelers ignite outbreaks that spread to dozens more.

I 100% agree. I worry about disease vectors as a risk analysis. We are fully immunized and it's largely because I tend to travel to the non-immunized parts of the city and my wife travels to non-immunized parts of the world. I'm going to the best seafood importer and best Asian supply store and my wife goes to China.

We vaccinate because we know we have some risk exposure. But in the broader sense there isn't evidence that it's doing damage to those of us immunized. I'm taking the very proven mathematical position that being in a large unvaccinated population or being unvaccinated while being exposed to a lot of travel are poor decisions. But the "crazy Christian farm kid in Montana"... The math doesn't bear that out.

It's a hard data set. Yes, the most terrifying is a large insular group not immunized. Those of us exposed (like me) should be very careful.

I am sympathetic that the medical community is asked to bear a larger burden of the risk. Any outbreak falls in their lap. I could make an argument that anything that puts them at risk is a systemic threat.

There's a lot of nuance here. I've had a family member live through the "how many gloves did the AIDS vial break" situation. And I get the fear that 50 kids show up at a hospital with a contagious disease.

This could well be a macro solution with a micro problem.

Offline iam4liberty

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 3053
  • Karma: 213
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #46 on: February 17, 2019, 08:31:07 PM »
Yes, it is primarily immigration and travel which is the seed for an outbreak.  All but one US outbreak (defined as 3+ cases) in the last 20 years was caused accordingly.

But again, this is a miniscule risk.  The most common cited 1 in 1,000 number is a pre-vaccine/ pre-modern medicine rate of death among the 10% of reported acute cases.  The actual rate among infections from this time is approximately 1 in 10,000.  This same ratio is seen in European data.  The CDC can't produce a current estimate because for the last 15 years there have been no confirmed deaths from the reported diagnosed measles cases (approximately 2,700).  There was only one confirmed measles related death which was an undiagnosed case from an autopsy.

The best study to date in a modern medicine country is from France in 2008 to 2011 when they had a large immigration driven outbreak.  They experienced a outbreak estimated at 44K infections of which about 22K were severe enough to be tracked.  Among this group there were only 10 deaths.  Which comes to a raw rate of 2.3 deaths per 10,000 infections.



However, 7 of the 10 reported deaths were were among immune system compromised individuals (congenital, Hodgkin’s lymphoma, Crohn’s disease, HIV, immunosuppressive treatment).  Medical processes are now in place to avoid these deaths, so the expected rate is about 1 death in 15,000 infections.   

Now it gets controversial.  Should deaths among the immigrants who bring the disease be counted in these figures?  Governments have avoided presenting this data as for the obvious political ramifications.  Personally, I don't think we want to shut down all international travel and immigration for such a risk.  Which if someone ever brought a lawsuit this would be the obvious direction the discussion would take.

Either way, whether it is looked at as 1 in 1,000-2,500+ reported acute cases or 1 in 10,000-30,000+ infections doesn't really matter.  The risk is super low.  As the CDC continues to communicate it is best to take the distorted media reports with a grain of salt, understand the risks posed in other parts of the world, and voluntarily choose to vaccinate if concerned.

« Last Edit: February 17, 2019, 08:36:57 PM by iam4liberty »

Offline FreeLancer

  • Global Moderator
  • Survival Veteran
  • ******
  • Posts: 5797
  • Karma: 768
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #47 on: February 17, 2019, 09:34:59 PM »
Medical processes are now in place to avoid these deaths.......

Not really. 

In fact, with the rapidly increasing use of biologics for the treatment of rheumatologic, dermatologic, and neuro-degenerative conditions the number of those considered to be immunocompromised within the population will rise.  These are the people who depend on adequate herd immunity.


Your French mortality rates are not consistent with what the EU and WHO are reporting, which are in line with the CDC.  No offense, but I'll stick with their more conservative estimates.

Regardless, the morbidity associated with measles infection is still pretty horrendous.  Why subject a child to the trauma of a preventable PICU admission if you don't have to? 

Offline iam4liberty

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 3053
  • Karma: 213
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #48 on: February 17, 2019, 10:41:54 PM »
Your French mortality rates are not consistent with what the EU and WHO are reporting, which are in line with the CDC.  No offense, but I'll stick with their more conservative estimates.

Those are the Numbers from France for that time period.  2018 was similar with deaths (tentatively listed as three) being immune system compromised. 

WHO numbers are as high as 1 death in 60 infections for covered countries in 2018. Measles and malnutrition dont mix.  Venezuela is particularly bad.  But deaths have dropped from 500k to 100k a year which is great progress..

Offline AvenueQ

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1472
  • Karma: 103
    • In Plain Sight
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #49 on: February 18, 2019, 09:31:10 AM »
In fact, with the rapidly increasing use of biologics for the treatment of rheumatologic, dermatologic, and neuro-degenerative conditions the number of those considered to be immunocompromised within the population will rise.  These are the people who depend on adequate herd immunity.

Regardless, the morbidity associated with measles infection is still pretty horrendous.  Why subject a child to the trauma of a preventable PICU admission if you don't have to?

These two reasons are exactly why we're doing the full schedule for our son. Hell, my husband was one of those immunocompromised children who depended on that herd immunity when he was a baby.

It's not even so much hard anti-vax stuff that I hear anymore, it's more "well, I'm just concerned about side effects, I want a delayed schedule." I've quit going to some mom/baby groups because of this "vaccine anxiety". Nope, not risking my kid's health for some mommy "bonding" time.

Offline David in MN

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1729
  • Karma: 126
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #50 on: February 18, 2019, 11:17:35 AM »
OK... If we want to eliminate measles the #1 policy would be banning international travel. We just don't want to live in that world. Croatian Dubrovnik avoided the bubonic plague by enacting a strict quarantine and African villages going back thousands of years would block the road to stop travel and the spread of disease. Not exactly a new idea. But it's not fun if I can't go back to France. I like visiting France. Try an almond croissant. You'll be hooked.

We'd also rightfully recoil in horror at the thought of genetically testing and eliminating the most susceptible people.

So the two most effective methods of eliminating this disease are things we find morally abhorrent. We're already accepting risks with regard to disease vectors that we would not choose to eliminate. Travel is fun and executing "undesirables" is a dark path with bad historical implications. So we accept a certain risk level.

I'm also comfortable with the Talebian argument that magnitude offsets probability. A small chance that my daughter could die in a horrible fashion from measles presents a realistic concern. That should play a role in the calculation. And while I respect religious beliefs the MMR vaccine (in my math) is worth my weight in gold. I only regret we didn't get it sooner.

I can't not bring this up. Statistically one of the worst vectors of disease is war. We should end war YESTERDAY. Plague and disease have followed war throughout history (WWI being one of the worst examples) and if we want an end to disease END WAR.

I do worry. I worry that the kid down the street without immunization is a "bad person" responsible for trying to spread contagion. I worry because he's become an "undesirable" and I don't like where that ends up. I'm also scared that a large unvaccinated community could shut down medical services. And as a math person I can conclusively say there is no reason not to get the MMR. But I'd draw a line at putting a gun to someone's head.

Just bear in mind that the "you are putting me at risk" line logically ends in closed borders and the search for genetic defects. Just look up the 20th century. Pretty much all we did.

Offline iam4liberty

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 3053
  • Karma: 213
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #51 on: February 18, 2019, 03:33:48 PM »
CDC efforts are heavily concentrated on US residents who travel overseas and return infected.  That is how biggest outbreaks occur.  For example, Philipines relief efforts have been major cause of outbreaks in US.  Travel to middle east is another.

I am still curious about why the panic over measles vs much larger, easier to mitigate risks.  For example, peanut allergies result in at least 10x more deaths in US as measles.  But the press is filled with articles tampering down fears.  Why dont they push for peanut bans instead? 

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/glenn-d-braunstein-md/peanut-allergies_b_2885819.html
Getting Past the Hype About Peanut Allergies

And why is a person's proclivity for peanut butter and jelly sandwhiches, youth football, etc given so much more respect than deeply held religious convictions? Isnt that upside down?  Interestingly, the states driving the measles panic (Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Massachusetts) tend to have relatively low church attendance.  So maybe there is no empathy for religious beliefs there?



Or said more broadly, what determines what risks a person is willing to consider as critical?  It definitely is an interesting thing for preppers to ponder.

Offline mountainmoma

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 4348
  • Karma: 195
  • suburban homesteader
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #52 on: February 18, 2019, 04:08:09 PM »
Quote
Jack Spirko
19 mins ·

And people are using this to say basically a home school mom in Texas who didn't vaccinate her kids is to blame.

BTW the highest cause of premature death in Madagascar is diarrhea and the second leading cause is a lower respiratory infection and Protein-energy malnutrition is the third.

So bronchitis and the shits and a lack of hamburgers kill a few thousand in this third world hell hole annually. So exactly how is this a surprise or in anyway relevant to what people in the US should or should not do.

Source of the data - http://www.healthdata.org/…/ihme_gbd_country_report_madagas…

Go ahead and bitch about my stupid facts and logic again.

Facebook, today

Wish he would come and cmment on this thread....
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 04:15:00 PM by mountainmoma »

Offline mountainmoma

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 4348
  • Karma: 195
  • suburban homesteader
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #53 on: February 18, 2019, 04:39:27 PM »
This explains it much better than any argument I could make .... https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=255&v=47RUl5xqs_s

Offline surfivor

  • Survival Veteran
  • ********
  • Posts: 6851
  • Karma: 92
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #54 on: February 20, 2019, 01:59:55 PM »

 No need to be a libertarian when the CDC, FDA and other state agencies are out there to protect you

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/state-issues/430736-fda-chief-says-feds-might-intervene-if-states-continue-to

FDA chief says feds might intervene if states continue allowing vaccine exemptions

The head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is warning that states might “force the hand of the federal health agencies” if they continue to allow vaccine exemptions amid an ongoing measles outbreak.

FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CNN on Tuesday that the federal government might intervene if “certain states continue down the path that they're on.”

Offline iam4liberty

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 3053
  • Karma: 213
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #55 on: February 20, 2019, 06:29:08 PM »
No need to be a libertarian when the CDC, FDA and other state agencies are out there to protect you

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/state-issues/430736-fda-chief-says-feds-might-intervene-if-states-continue-to

FDA chief says feds might intervene if states continue allowing vaccine exemptions

The head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is warning that states might “force the hand of the federal health agencies” if they continue to allow vaccine exemptions amid an ongoing measles outbreak.

FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CNN on Tuesday that the federal government might intervene if “certain states continue down the path that they're on.”

Ah, now we know what this is probably all about.  Scott Gottlieb is a venture partner with New Enterprise Associates, the notorius health venture capital firm.  He will probably make millions if they can push this through.  Good luck, as federal government has no authority in the matter and the Midwest states will never agree to this.

Offline FreeLancer

  • Global Moderator
  • Survival Veteran
  • ******
  • Posts: 5797
  • Karma: 768
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #56 on: February 20, 2019, 06:55:39 PM »
Trump wouldn't let his appointees go down a totalitarian path, or profit from their government positions.

Offline iam4liberty

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 3053
  • Karma: 213
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: County-by-county analysis of vaccine nonmedical exemptions reveals hotspots
« Reply #57 on: February 20, 2019, 07:47:29 PM »
Trump wouldn't let his appointees go down a totalitarian path, or profit from their government positions.

Dont worry, he will end up like Rod Rosenstein. The drain on the swamp is unfortunately slow.  It takes a while.

For those who dont know, NEA has a large interest in Buzzfeed.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2019, 07:58:23 PM by iam4liberty »

Offline iam4liberty

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 3053
  • Karma: 213
  • New TSP Forum member
Wish he would come and cmment on this thread....

He covered it in great detail in episodes 1511, 1514, and 1520.  This was during the 2015 measlesgeddon.  He called that one 'the latest batch of “sopa de mierda de toro”'.

Good news.  According to Google trends the 2018/2019 measlespocalypse has ended.  It is out of the media cycle now.  It followed the same pattern as 2015 to a tee.





« Last Edit: March 02, 2019, 11:16:45 AM by iam4liberty »

Offline iam4liberty

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 3053
  • Karma: 213
  • New TSP Forum member
Ah, now we know what this is probably all about.  Scott Gottlieb is a venture partner with New Enterprise Associates, the notorius health venture capital firm.  He will probably make millions if they can push this through.  Good luck, as federal government has no authority in the matter and the Midwest states will never agree to this.

Trump wouldn't let his appointees go down a totalitarian path, or profit from their government positions.

Dont worry, he will end up like Rod Rosenstein. The drain on the swamp is unfortunately slow.  It takes a while.

For those who dont know, NEA has a large interest in Buzzfeed.

Trump just announced Scott Gottlieb is out at the FDA come the end of next month.  This came right after Dr. Rand Paul's compelling testimony on Gottlieb's mandatory forced vaccination plan.  "I'm not here to say don't vaccinate your kids. If this hearing is for persuasion I'm all for the persuasion. I've vaccinated myself and I've vaccinated my kids. For myself and my children I believe that the benefits of vaccines greatly outweigh the risks, but I still don't favor giving up on liberty for a false sense of security."
« Last Edit: March 05, 2019, 02:13:42 PM by iam4liberty »