Disney vs. Comcast

[David in MN]

Disney has upped its bid for Fox. They are in a bidding war with Comcast for buying the Fox business.

http://www.ign.com/articles/2018/06/18/disney-to-reportedly-increase-its-fox-bid-following-comcast-offer?abthid=5b27f75a43c50c033600012e&read

I'm interested in what this means for content as Bob Iger clearly intends to make Disney a stand alone content owner and streaming service. For those in the cheap seats, a purchase would give Disney creative control of the Marvel universe adding to their library of every princess movie and the Star Wars franchise. Disney is quietly gobbling up all the content and a purchase of Fox would give them better streaming and delivery especially in foreign markets.

I do not own any of these concerns but my daughter is a Disney shareholder.

[iam4liberty]

Dont forget Disney already owns ESPN so has strongest play in sports programming content.  Another key point is with Fox Disney would have control of Hulu.  They have already given notice to Netflix that they are pulling Disney owned content from them.

[David in MN]

Dont forget Disney already owns ESPN so has strongest play in sports programming content.  Another key point is with Fox Disney would have control of Hulu.  They have already given notice to Netflix that they are pulling Disney owned content from them.

It's almost like you're thinking that ESPN and Fox Sports will be under one roof in an area that is just getting liberalized gambling rights...

Disney has been a company defined by the CEO for decades. Some were shitheads (Eisner) but Bob Iger feels like a shrewd businessman looking to capture as much content as possible and make Disney a one stop shop. The Netflix break is massive. Once Disney gets its streaming live it will be the only place you can get Disney, Marvel, Star Wars, and maybe Fox & Fox Searchlight. We could very well see Disney be the #1 content owner of the future. And we'll all subscribe for no other reason than showing the kids Star Wars.

[David in MN]

Better late than never. I've been lax covering this story which I believe to be the entertainment story of the century.

Both Disney and Fox shareholders approved the sale.

https://variety.com/2018/biz/news/21st-century-fox-disney-merger-shareholder-vote-1202888023/

I was actually surprised that the Fox people didn't hold out for more money. They felt (maybe rightly) that the Disney library with Fox distribution is a match made in heaaven. I can't emphasize how massive this is and will be when the sale is completed in early 2019. All of us of a certain age think of Disney in terms of Mickey Mouse and princess movies. The era of Fantasia is gone. Disney now controls every Marvel movie, Star Wars, Virtually every Pixar gem, and to top it off they control Bart Simpson. If your kids are under 10 and watching a film I'd wager it a Disney controlled piece.

Disney is so bonkers out of control with content... think this through... They are actively trying to make Star Wars a franchise for girls.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-film-starwars-women-analysis-idUSKBN0TX1J720151214

I guess it's a little tough to think Leia now ranks  with Ariel and Belle. But Disney is so all powerful in content they think they can take the all-male nerd stuff from the 80s and turn it into "girl-cool" in this era. Just imagine a company buying GI Joe and deciding it should be the girl franchise. This is nothing short of insane.

Maybe you've seen a Disney movie recently. With this acquisition films like Slumdog Millionaire or The Shape of Water will be the property of Disney. It sure feels like Juno and The Black Swan aren't exactly in line with Steamboat Willie but that's the world we will live in.

This kind of came to a head in our family. I took my nephews to see Age of Ultron and we left arguing about whether Hulk or Thor is stronger (obviously the Hulk is stronger and we don't need to argue about it here but the boys were wrong and picked Thor). But stop and think... Every character the kids around me love is Disney. Hulk, Thor, Iron Man, Luke Skywalker, Nemo, Beast, Mickey, Tow Mater, Cinderella, etc. and they even control some more adult characters now. Beyond Bart Simpson Disney will control Archer. Holy shit snacks!

All that and I haven't mentioned the sports. Fox Sports and ESPN will be under one roof?

I think this is one of the biggest acquisitions in history and it's kind of page 6 news.

[iam4liberty]

It is actually much bigger than even that. You rightfully point out the size of content.  But bigger play here is that they are going directly to consumers, cutting out middle men. Essentially, they are creating an entertainment guilded cage/walled garden similar in business model to what Apple did with itunes, etc but with the scope of android.  Said another way, they will become an entertainment operating syatem capturing both the subscription and ad revenue directly.  They will control the Hulu platform and very well could acquire Roku to create hardware which gives them advantage (they pretty much have Roku locked by licensing already).  So customers will get a better experience and lower price while Disney will make more for each show/movie because they wont have to share profit.  Big losers are Netflix, Amazon, and Apple.

https://www.recode.net/2017/12/14/16771712/hulu-disney-acquisition-fox-means-dis-foxa-21cf

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14420637/1/fox-holds-onto-roku-stake-in-disney-deal.html

[AvenueQ]

Maybe in the MSM it's page 6, but I follow some nerdier websites that have been covering this more. Large business mergers also seem to be more common now (think Time Warner and At&T), so probably it's just seen as another average day in the business world.

As far as how much content Disney now controls...yeah, it makes me a little uneasy. Especially with their track record of manipulating copyright laws. I wonder if we'll ever get to a point again where monopolies will actually be held accountable like Microsoft was in the early 2000s.

[David in MN]

As is usual the MSM has their collective heads fully up their ass. Nice to see some people around here that can see the plan coming together. Both shareholder votes took less than 15 minutes. They know what they're doing.

Interesting article on investing in Disney (like my 3 year old):

https://investorplace.com/2018/09/disney-stock-streaming-huge/

Bob Iger looks like a renegade genius. He will make Disney the one-stop-shop for children's entertainment. I don't think we're far off from a parent of three having one child who wants to go to the theater to see the new Star Wars, one that wnats to stay home and stream Black Panther 7, and one who just wants to play with Pirates of the Caribbean Legos.

Let me put it this way: You could run a business with any one Disney franchise. Forget Star Wars, you'd be happy to have Pirates. You could make payroll on Thor movies and forget the other Avengers. I paid $300 to see the Lion King live. When I play Legos with my daughter we build Ariel a house. And just in terms of Legos we have Ariel, Elsa, Anna, Aurora, and she's getting Cinderella for Christmas. I'm not too proud to admit I have fun and I really enjoyed building Luke's T-47 airspeeder with my nephews. Every time I'm at Wallyworld I eye the AT-AT up and down.

It's rather amazing but in terms of content Disney is only competing with... Disney. Disney will even take you on a cruise to see the locales of Free Willy and the Goonies (and if you think they're not plotting a sequal for that gem I have a bridge to sell).

https://hellogiggles.com/news/disney-cruise-astoria-oregon/

I've never seen a company with content like Disney has now. Your kids will argue over which Disney production to see.

[iam4liberty]

Talking about toys and mergers, i dont see Mattel lasting much longer as a separate entity.  They havent been able to leverage their own brands fully and so are reliant on external properties.  Wouldnt be surprised to see disney pick them up given Hasbro's fumble on star wars.  Or maybe hasbro or lego company will merge with them.

[David in MN]

Talking about toys and mergers, i dont see Mattel lasting much longer as a separate entity.  They havent been able to leverage their own brands fully and so are reliant on external properties.  Wouldnt be surprised to see disney pick them up given Hasbro's fumble on star wars.  Or maybe hasbro or lego company will merge with them.

Even worse thaan that. With Toys R Us shuttering its stores what dedicated toy store do you have? Unless you have an independent place the only "toy store" left is the Disney store. And they crippled Mattel and Hasbro. Go walk the girls toys at Walmart and Target. What used to be Barbie aisles are now dedicated to Elsa, Anna, Belle, Ariel, Rapunzel, Elena, and the like. Walk the boys aisle. It's Star Wars, Marvel, and Lego (which is cross branded with Star Wars and Marvel).

I'd say Disney could buy the toy companies but why bother? They could just as easily sit fat and happy on royalties as Mattel and Hasbro must chase Disney characters. I mean, Build-a-Bear features Rey (though my daughter made a Minnie Mouse):

https://www.buildabear.com/rey-bear/025137.html

I can only imagine the hand wringing at Disney over whether to buy Nerf and put out a Nerf Han Solo gun. If that's not your favorite Harrison Ford gunslinger rest easy. Disney owns Indiana Jones as well. Maybe you prefer Warwick Davis in Willow. Yup, that too.

A couple decades back Disney, 20th Century Fox, and Lucasfilm were all legit production houses in their own right. Now Disney OWNS THEM ALL. And every title is just waiting for the reboot. When they fail (Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skulls) they just give you some time to forget and reboot.

So much has been made about Netflix vs. Amazon. And they are putting out great stuff. If you've not seen Amazon's Jack Ryan it's great. And Netflix wins with great original programming. I personally like the docu series that explore art and architecture (Amazing Interiors is a lot of fun). But Disney did something different. They bought up almost every child franchise. When Bob Iger launches the Disney play app you're going to be hard pressed to not let the kids have Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Snow White, Cinderella, Frozen, Moana, Elena, etc. Unlike Netflix and Amazon Disney doesn't have to provide value. They own all the value.