Author Topic: The CDC’s Gun Injury Data Is Becoming Even More Unreliable  (Read 215 times)

Offline iam4liberty

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 3318
  • Karma: 265
  • New TSP Forum member
The CDC’s Gun Injury Data Is Becoming Even More Unreliable
« on: March 11, 2019, 12:28:45 PM »
It is actually good news that the CDC is releasing their reliability data.  People tend to make decisions based on the source not the underlying quality of the data.  So the CDC is doing the public a favor by starting to caution people on innacutate interpretations.  They did the same thing with recent outbreak scares when media was misusing the data.
The CDC’s Gun Injury Data Is Becoming Even More Unreliable
“You just can’t use those numbers,” said one of the nation’s leading public health researchers, after viewing the agency’s most recent figures.

According to the CDC’s most recent figures, somewhere between 31,000 and 236,000 people were injured by guns in 2017. That range, which represents the confidence interval — the high and low ends of a range of estimates that probably contains the real number, whatever that number is — is almost four times wider than the one given in the agency’s 2001 estimate.

The CDC acknowledges its estimates are unreliable, but as it’s the nation’s premier public health agency, its figures are still widely used by researchers, journalists and the general public. That the latest numbers have become even more uncertain suggests that the CDC can’t be counted on to accurately estimate the number of gun injuries in the U.S. right now.
Last year, The Trace and FiveThirtyEight reported that the rising trend in the number of nonfatal gunshot wounds in the CDC’s estimates was out of step with trends reported by other public health and criminal justice databases, which found flat or declining numbers of these injuries. The CDC’s most recent estimate — nearly 134,000 injuries — suggests that the upward trend in its data is accelerating, with injuries jumping over 57 percent between 2015 and 2017.

But that number is suspect, in part because the agency sources its data from a small number of hospitals: just 60 in 2017, according to data obtained in a public records request by The Trace and FiveThirtyEight. Drawing data from such a small pool means that a single hospital that treats a disproportionate number of gun injuries has the potential to drastically skew the entire estimate.