Author Topic: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm  (Read 1358 times)

Offline Greekman

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World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« on: July 25, 2019, 11:30:45 PM »
-for what is worth-
things have gotten me worried.
Over here some of the serious talking heads (from both the left and the right) are cautioning against a possible world economic crash 2 years from now.
they say things will be worse cos it will not be the subprimes that will crash, but real productive economy has gone south and there is fall back point.

Any chance you are hearing the same in the US?

Offline CharlesH

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2019, 06:40:17 AM »
Stories like this are common in the US.  Predicting the next downturn is always complicated, though.  If we knew when the next crash was going to occur, and what was going to cause it, then we could probably avoid the crash.  Easier said than done... Will there be a crash? Sure. Will someone who predicated it be right?  Sure again. Most people in The predication game will be wrong on the timing, the cause, or both, however, and we’ll never hear from them again.
 
It will happen. The people in charge when it happens will be blamed and pay the price. I just stay diversified in my financial and personal life and try to weather each storm as it comes.

Offline Greekman

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2019, 09:00:22 AM »
yes i know...if you shoot "fire" for long enough, eventually you will be right. Life and economy run in circles after all...
but this time i wonder if there real signs enough to warrant an expectation.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2019, 11:53:00 AM »
I've been hearing this continuously for 40 years.  I just saw someone's description of a particular alternative economics news site as having "accurately predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions."  The more mainstream news isn't immune to this either.

Sometimes it turns out to be true.  Or, sometimes we have an invisible crash -- more like an ooze, as wealth flows from some areas of the economy to other areas -- and then afterwards, everyone says "See? No crash!" but can't really explain why 90% of the population is in worse economic shape.

I feel like the economy has been unstable for my entire life, and I keep seeing governments and megacorporations doing things that cannot possibly be sustainable -- yet somehow we never quite collapse back to the Dark Ages.  I do think there are people with lots of wealth and/or political power who are trying to steer economic disruptions so as to benefit themselves and their allies -- but I don't believe it's a unified Deep State or International Bankers' Conspiracy or whatever that's doing this.  More like battling Mafia families, or Game of Thrones -- and in the wealthier parts of the world, they don't have complete control, and can't prevent upstarts like today's tech industry billionaires from coming into existence and messing up their plans.

So I don't know if we're on the verge of a crash, or just another ooze.  But however it happens, I expect the result will (again) be a net transfer of wealth from the general population to a small fraction of the population.

...The people in charge when it happens will be blamed and pay the price. ...

Yup, every time.  Regardless of whether they inherited an impossible situation from the previous people in charge.

Offline Greekman

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2019, 04:53:58 PM »
yet crashes do happen and have ripple effects....the 2007 bust may be a notch in the US economic history but created an upturn in the Greek economy (since, you cannot expect much of a row boat facing Hawaiian waves).
This is my concern, we here are so exhausted that a big "stock market correction" may sink us for good.

Sometimes it turns out to be true.  Or, sometimes we have an invisible crash -- more like an ooze, as wealth flows from some areas of the economy to other areas -- and then afterwards, everyone says "See? No crash!" but can't really explain why 90% of the population is in worse economic shape.

I have never heard of this... One more thing to consider then. thanks MrBill

Offline NWPilgrim

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2019, 09:14:54 PM »
snip...
I feel like the economy has been unstable for my entire life, and I keep seeing governments and megacorporations doing things that cannot possibly be sustainable -- yet somehow we never quite collapse back to the Dark Ages.  I do think there are people with lots of wealth and/or political power who are trying to steer economic disruptions so as to benefit themselves and their allies -- but I don't believe it's a unified Deep State or International Bankers' Conspiracy or whatever that's doing this.  More like battling Mafia families, or Game of Thrones -- and in the wealthier parts of the world, they don't have complete control, and can't prevent upstarts like today's tech industry billionaires from coming into existence and messing up their plans.

So I don't know if we're on the verge of a crash, or just another ooze.  But however it happens, I expect the result will (again) be a net transfer of wealth from the general population to a small fraction of the population.
snip...

Really excellent post!  Crash or ooze the game is the same with the same corrupt winners and same average-Joe losers.  Over the long haul there are a thousand ways for them to extract wealth from the middle class. Binge and crash the mortgage market, ooze more inflation, binge and crash derivatives, ooze more inflation and increase taxes, etc.  Even inescapable (as you get older) health care is a rigged racket.  The last time I heard ANY substantial political discussion about the national debt and deficit was the 1998 budget clash between Clinton and the Republican Congress, in which they caved after a couple of months and never squeaked about the budget again for the last 21 years.  You cannot run massive deficits every year for 10-20 years without paying the piper eventually.  The result will be "The Mother of All Crashes" or "The Mother of All Economic Ooze."  But it could take 1 year, five years or 50 years to unfold.  The longer it takes the worse the final result.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2019, 06:05:13 PM »
AP, 8/14/19: Dow slumps 800 points after bonds flash recession warning

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...The yield on the closely watched 10-year Treasury fell so low Wednesday that, for the first time since 2007, it briefly crossed a threshold that has correctly predicted many past recessions. Weak economic data from Germany and China added to recent signals of a global slowdown.

That spooked investors, who responded by dumping stocks, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average into an 800-point skid, its biggest drop of the year. The S&P 500 index dropped nearly 3% as the market erased all of its gains from a rally the day before. ...

The yield on the 10-year Treasury has dropped from 2.02% on July 31 to below 1.60% and on Wednesday, it briefly fell below the two-year Treasury's yield for the first time since 2007. Each of the last five times the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields have inverted, a recession has followed. The average amount of time is around 22 months, according to Raymond James' Giddis. The indicator isn't perfect, though, and has given false signals in the past. ...

Gold gained $13.70 to $1,515.90 per ounce, close to a six-year high. ...

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2019, 07:16:30 PM »
WaPo:  The month a shadow fell on Trump’s economy

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Top White House advisers notified President Trump earlier this month that some internal forecasts showed that the economy could slow markedly over the next year, stopping short of a recession but complicating his path to reelection in 2020.

The private forecast, one of several delivered to Trump and described by three people familiar with the briefing, contrasts sharply with the triumphant rhetoric the president and his surrogates have repeatedly used to describe the economy.

Quote
Ideas that have been discussed include imposing a currency transaction tax that could weaken the dollar and make U.S. exports more competitive; creating a rotation among the Federal Reserve governors that would make it easier to check the power of Chair Jerome H. Powell, whom Trump has blamed for not doing all he can to increase growth; and pushing to lower the corporate tax rate to 15 percent in an effort to spur more investment. Some, if not all, of these steps would require congressional approval.

“Everyone is nervous — everyone,” said a Republican with close ties to the White House and congressional GOP leaders. “It’s not a panic, but they are nervous.”

This article is based on interviews with more than 25 current and former administration officials, lawmakers, and external advisers who have been in contact with Trump and his team throughout August. Some spoke on the condition of anonymity because the White House has been requesting that allies and aides keep its economic message intact.

Offline Gamer

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A Great Depression on the way?
« Reply #8 on: August 25, 2019, 04:36:24 AM »
Somebody in another forum predicts a forthcoming Great Depression like the one of 1929, when people rushed to the banks to draw out their money but found the doors locked in their faces (below)



We can safeguard against that by keeping a load of our cash at home hidden around the house (I already do that), but as a matter of interest would a Depression spark food riots and looting as people begin to starve? Should we worry?







Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: A Great Depression on the way?
« Reply #9 on: August 25, 2019, 08:04:47 AM »
If I were in Britain right now, as you are, I would totally be stocking cash, food, animals, and knowledge AND building relationships with my neighbors.  The Elites do not like Brexit, and will make it as painful as possible for a while.

As for a world wide depression, like last time....  I am iffy.  I guess it depends on Germany - they inadvertently caused the last one by starting WWI and then got us out by continuing that into WWII /sarcasm

Offline Stwood

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Re: A Great Depression on the way?
« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2019, 09:14:31 AM »
I think a lot of other countries will fail, then we'll (US) be right behind them in not a too distant future.

We should prep regardless........we don't know what the future holds for us.

Offline surfivor

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Re: A Great Depression on the way?
« Reply #11 on: August 25, 2019, 10:22:44 AM »

Would such news make anyone hesitant to invest in mutual funds or an index fund ?

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #12 on: August 25, 2019, 12:13:13 PM »
MODERATOR NOTE: Merged 2 threads on same topic

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2019, 05:34:42 PM »
A sober(ing) assessment of the potential for grim times ahead.....

YouTube:  The developed world is on the brink of a financial, economic, social and political crisis

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Developed economies are at a crisis point, the powers of unconventional monetary policy are exhausted, and markets are just beginning to wake up to this. That’s the sobering assessment on the current state of the global economy delivered by Donald Amstad from Aberdeen Standard Investments 

His view is that when developed markets finally crack, there will be serious implications for every asset class and economy. However, those economies where monetary policy remains relatively ‘normal’ will be those best placed to respond. In his view, the emerging markets have more levers to pull when compared to developed markets, where the money printing taps have been turned on and interest rate settings are near zero.

The irony is that during the Asian crisis it was the IMF and central bankers from developed markets that convinced the emerging market governments not to print money and ‘take their medicine.’ Amstad says that this was a cathartic process for these economies, and they are now looking on in bewilderment as the West has resorts to money printing of an unprecedented scale.

“In the emerging world, economic and monetary policy is broadly orthodox. It is the West that is running unorthodox economic and monetary policy and it is the West, ironically, that is now on the cliff edge.”

Quote
He expects that these social tensions will only continue to escalate if developed world policy makers are unwilling to take their medicine.

“If they do come out with another bout of QE then banks are going to go bust, pension funds are going to go bust, insurance companies are going to go bust. And if it pushes the stock market back up again, then the 99.9% are probably not going to tolerate more handouts. That leads to social and political instability.”

Offline Greekman

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2019, 12:44:31 AM »
maybe I reading too much on this issue.
but with good reason.
i.e. yesterday o news caster on the Greek national radio, in a slip of tongue, mentioned that everyone is expecting a new recession boom...

btw it is quite a revelation to watch that movie that was made on the 2007 market bust, The Big Short.

Offline Carver

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #15 on: September 07, 2019, 07:01:40 PM »
Howard Ruff scared me to death with his book in 1979 and so I bought some silver, and then I sold it. I'm still okay, in fact doing better.
It seems every generation for some reason seems to think that the end is near and the beginning began about the time they were born.

Offline Greekman

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2019, 12:26:39 AM »
I get what you are saying, but each generation DID have a market crash sometime in the span of.
So the question is not if but rather when. And if next month will be the "one" of course
In general terms being in this forum accounts for getting a bit ready for one.

I am getting the scent of a "market correction" -at the least- on the air, but I not totally convinced, hence the "hmmm" part of the topic title.
Let's not forget that are always efforts to battle a developing situation, even if sometimes they are putting it under the rag.

now in more practical terms, has this hunch significantly changes my life?
Very little, because of my usual prep schedule ( I prep for poverty more than anything else). More specifically, I am moving the purchase date of some items closer than initially planned.
i.e. Having gone through the Greek capitals controls I know that imported stuff will be very hard to come buy, and i got to keep my car running if I want to have a job. So more preventive maintenance, and acquisition of certain dealership only parts.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2019, 12:49:56 AM by Greekman »

Offline Stwood

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2019, 08:13:31 AM »
Possible to find and buy a wrecked car like yours for parts, wherever you are at?

Offline Greekman

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2019, 11:25:03 AM »
nope....since I cannot do things myself it is counter productive. but mine is a hyundai, used parts are plentiful and cheap. and a local yard has a cut-up like mine.
Amazingly you cannot get wheels/rims for it. It is such a down to earth car that no one cares to change to aluminum wheels etc etc. Nothing in the used market, so only genuine imports are available.
And the Greek roads make the rims a consumable item