Author Topic: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?  (Read 857 times)

Offline Prepper Rob

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How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« on: October 14, 2019, 12:27:05 PM »
Greetings ACA Members

My wife and I are in our 50's and have a 18 year old nonverbal low functioning autistic son.

We live in one of the last few houses before the suburbs turn into farm land.

I hear new and old preppers on podcasts speak of there fear of what the unprepared are going to do.

I belive with out gasoline, there will not be a lot of people travailing around.

I belive the people asking for help or drug / alcohol seeker will come from a walking one mile radius of my house.

How do you all feel about this ?

Prepper Rob


Offline fritz_monroe

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Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2019, 04:52:55 PM »
Personally, I think that it will have to get pretty bad for the unprepared to head out into the country to loot.

As you mentioned, lack of gasoline will help with this.  Not to be callous, but many unprepared are in fairly bad physical shape.  Many will die just days or weeks after SHTF hits.  This will "free up" more of the resources in the cities.  I also feel that it's much easier to loot close to home.

That doesn't mean that nobody will come calling during a SHTF situation, but I feel that there won't be all that many willing to come out to the country until things get pretty bad.

Offline IKN

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Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2019, 06:11:53 PM »
IMHO, there are too many factors that could affect any true answer to your question. Factors like terrain, climate, how bad off people are, and how widespread the problem is.
I personally think that during the initial SHTF situation, the ill prepared will tend to migrate towards larger towns and cities since the general sentiment would be that's where help and resources are going to be and for a local area SHTF, they're probably right.
If/when things get bad in the cities, I believe people will tend to try and travel major highways and, probably, heading south (depending on time of year) with considerations towards safety, water, and food.
Some will take the roads less traveled probably thinking there will be more resources due to fewer people. Either way, I think most will travel in groups for safety in numbers, if for nothing else.

For me, living in a northern climate, the test will be surviving until the late fall. By that time, food resources are getting scarce and dropping temperatures will make it harder for people to stay warm and sheltered. By then, most unprepared people will be well on their way south to a warmer climate.

Offline CarbideAndIron

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Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2019, 07:45:18 AM »
I live outside the city, but not quite rural. Couple acres, neighbors all got 2-20 acres of land. Probably the urban rural fringe that Jack talks about.
I was pretty shocked to see homeless show up in the small towns around me, like my old town of 4500. But they don't seem to leave town and head away from the resources. I'd imagine this could show a trend of what the unprepared might do.
All about networking with your neighbors. Communicate with each other to improve the security of your area. We keep a close eye on the back of our property, because I did wander across a couple homeless camps outside town where we would walk the dog with my kids. So places that used to be safe, aren't what they used to be.

Online iam4liberty

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Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2019, 08:30:02 AM »
I was pretty shocked to see homeless show up in the small towns around me, like my old town of 4500. But they don't seem to leave town and head away from the resources. I'd imagine this could show a trend of what the unprepared might do.

Many small towns have food banks/soup kitchens sponsored by church groups.  They are a blessing but can incentivise some to relocate.  You might want to check if that is the case.

Which brings up a pertinent point.  The unprepared will eventually travel to wherever there is food and where they will feel safe.  Look at relocations during dust bowl/depression.  Towns will try to set up camps on outside parameter so as to not be overwhelmed.  We have seen this pattern play out for centuries. 

Grapes of Wrath used to be discussed in schools as a practical not political piece.  It is still a relevant book of fiction to give some perspective on motivation during times of crisis.

Offline rustyknife

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Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2019, 05:13:11 PM »
Is this where the FEMA camps kick-in? Still trying to figure out why they are being activated. ???

Offline DDJ

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Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2019, 10:33:17 AM »
If a scenario goes full evacuation and or refugee I would say that the only place that is safe is the only place that is not between 2 points or close to between 2 points.  Look at the Syrian refugees a few years back "walking" to Germany.  Distance is your friend but obscurity is a better ally. (that might be a tee shirt) Availability of transportation will be a key factor in smaller events.  If there is gas the "raiding" range is bigger.  If they have to walk the "raiding range" gets smaller.  Weather will also play a role in this distance. If they move from raids to migration all bets are off.

I am using the word raid to mean that they return to where they came from.  A home base mentality.

Migration would be like a swarm of locusts moving across the landscape from point A to point B. I would expect most large scale migration to be North to South over along term but a collapsing circle of people moving in to the city because that is where government will set up shelters and giveaway life will happen first.  When the winter winds blow it will be a North to South Migration.  North to south will also likely happen when the white blanket of winter lifts as people wan to get out of barley surviving the winter.  There will also likely be an extreme south move to the North to beat the heat.  I would guess that it will be city to city but they will move in a V as they look for food and shelter the ones in front will go the straightest and those that follow will fan out to find what they missed to the sides. 

If it goes that far I hope I don't see it.

Offline Stwood

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Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2019, 03:02:09 PM »
Is this where the FEMA camps kick-in? Still trying to figure out why they are being activated. ???

Any more info on the camps??

Offline fritz_monroe

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Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2019, 04:43:41 PM »
Any more info on the camps??
Agree, haven't heard anything about "activating" FEMA camps.

Distance is your friend but obscurity is a better ally.
Very profound words.

I'm on a Snow Emergency Route, but in all honesty, it goes nowhere that any mobs would be headed.  It's North of any big cities and is not on the way to anything.

Offline Stwood

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Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2019, 05:35:10 PM »
I'm in good with an older former FEMA employee. I'll be seeing him tomorrow.
I'll see if he's still in the know.

Offline leadeye

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Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2019, 09:41:29 PM »
Local folks that do not have resources could steal your food, resources, chickens or whatever. Things like bicycles, ATV's, motorcycles would be used to extend range. This type of concern would be from a large scale event. Your best protection would be local neighbors in cooperation. Just my thoughts.