Author Topic: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China  (Read 56337 times)

Offline CandyGram4Mongo

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #120 on: February 02, 2020, 07:58:55 AM »
This research team lends credence to the “made in a lab” theory.  Because 4 generic “inserts” are identical to HIV sequences (and never before seen in Corona virus strains) testing is straightforward and accurate (so the people being quarantined should be able to be tested accurately whether or not they’re symptomatic):

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

Here’s an interesting assessment involving Spanish Flu mortality and changes that are likely to have lessened pandemic efficacy:
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/01/a_note_on_coronavirus_dont_panic.html
Spoiler alert: antibiotics are effective against secondary infections/pneumonia, and a lot of the Spanish Flu mortality could be attributed to lethal secondary bacterial infections.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #121 on: February 02, 2020, 09:50:37 AM »
This research team lends credence to the “made in a lab” theory.  Because 4 generic “inserts” are identical to HIV sequences (and never before seen in Corona virus strains) testing is straightforward and accurate (so the people being quarantined should be able to be tested accurately whether or not they’re symptomatic):

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

Discussion about this in another thread:
Re: Virus accidentally released from lab ?

The authors of the paper admit they screwed up:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v2
Quote
This paper has been withdrawn by its authors. They intend to revise it in response to comments received from the research community on their technical approach and their interpretation of the results. If you have any questions, please contact the corresponding author.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #122 on: February 02, 2020, 12:45:25 PM »
Delta accelerated cancellations. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/01/delta-speeds-up-coronavirus-related-china-flight-suspensions.html
Delta speeds up coronavirus-related China flight suspensions

Delta Air Lines said on Saturday that it will suspend flights to and from China earlier than the carrier had previously announced as a result of new screening protocols implemented by the Trump administration in response to the new coronavirus.

The last China-bound flight departing from the U.S. will leave on Saturday, the airline said in a statement. The last return flight from China to the U.S. will depart on Sunday.

The Trump administration declared the new coronavirus a public health emergency in the United States on Friday.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #123 on: February 02, 2020, 01:53:53 PM »
It's starting to look like we're not going to avoid this turning into a pandemic (disease spread on >1 continent), with Africa squarely in the crosshairs.  No need for panic here in the US, with our resources and public health systems, but life is going to seriously suck for the poorer parts of the globe and it may rub of on us in unforeseen ways.


NYT:  Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say

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It is “increasingly unlikely that the virus can be contained,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who now runs Resolve to Save Lives, a nonprofit devoted to fighting epidemics.

“It is therefore likely that it will spread, as flu and other organisms do, but we still don’t know how far, wide or deadly it will be.”

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But various epidemiological models estimate that the real number of cases is 100,000 or even more. While that expansion is not as rapid as that of flu or measles, it is an enormous leap beyond what virologists saw when SARS and MERS emerged.

When SARS was vanquished in July 2003 after spreading for nine months, only 8,098 cases had been confirmed. MERS has been circulating since 2012, but there have been only about 2,500 known cases.

The biggest uncertainty now, experts said, is how many people around the world will die. SARS killed about 10 percent of those who got it, and MERS now kills about one of three.

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The effects of a pandemic would probably be harsher in some countries than in others. While the United States and other wealthy countries may be able to detect and quarantine the first carriers, countries with fragile health care systems will not. The virus has already reached Cambodia, India, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines and rural Russia.

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The virus’s most vulnerable target is Africa, many experts said. More than 1 million expatriate Chinese work there, mostly on mining, drilling or engineering projects. Also, many Africans work and study in China and other countries where the virus has been found.

If anyone on the continent has the virus now, “I’m not sure the diagnostic systems are in place to detect it,” said Dr. Daniel Bausch, head of scientific programs for the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, who is consulting with the W.H.O. on the outbreak.

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At the moment, it seems unlikely that the virus will spread widely in countries with vigorous, alert public health systems, said Dr. William Schaffner, a preventive medicine specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

“Every doctor in the U.S. has this top of mind,” he said. “Any patient with fever or respiratory problems will get two questions. ‘Have you been to China? Have you had contact with anyone who has?’ If the answer is yes, they’ll be put in isolation right away.”

Assuming the virus spreads globally, tourism to and trade with countries besides China may be affected — and the urgency to find ways to halt the virus and prevent deaths will grow.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2020, 04:46:51 PM by FreeLancer »

Offline Carver

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #124 on: February 02, 2020, 02:13:41 PM »
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No need for panic here in the US, with our resources and public health systems, but life is going to seriously suck for the poorer parts of the globe and it may rub of on us in unforeseen ways.
Unforeseen? I think it is very foreseeable that the economic impact of a global closing of borders and avoidance of the marketplace is going to devastating. There is also a political impact upon the attitude towards open borders with some ideological groups suffering from their open border position and others profiting from their anti-open border position. Also very predictable is the anti-Chinese, anti-Asian factor that is already taking place.

Offline antsyaunt

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #125 on: February 02, 2020, 02:31:52 PM »
It's starting to look like we're not going to avoid this turning into a pandemic (disease spread on >1 continent), with Africa is squarely in the crosshairs.  No need for panic here in the US, with our resources and public health systems, but life is going to seriously suck for the poorer parts of the globe and it may rub of on us in unforeseen ways.


Thanks for posting this.  I can’t imagine what some families are/will be experiencing.

Offline surfivor

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #126 on: February 02, 2020, 03:34:18 PM »
If there are only 300 deaths and 14000 cases then it’s a 2% fatality rate but I don’t see how you can be sure of the numbers since it’s a communist country with problems of sharing accuate information

Probably most of those who died are elderly. Given that it’s easy for them to at some point to exaggerate the situation and no doubt to push something like vaccines when they have them

I am not sure how a flu can have high numbers mostly confined within one city. I have doubts that that fits many patterns of how flu spreads. By the time they realize that there is a flu then it should have spread elsewhere.

If some elite powers wanted China to report inaccurate statistics or false information for the purpose of promoting vaccines or loss of freedom at some point in the future, that would be fairly simple to pull off. No one can verify any of it
« Last Edit: February 02, 2020, 03:41:10 PM by surfivor »

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #127 on: February 02, 2020, 04:05:23 PM »
Unforeseen? I think it is very foreseeable that the economic impact of a global closing of borders and avoidance of the marketplace is going to devastating. There is also a political impact upon the attitude towards open borders with some ideological groups suffering from their open border position and others profiting from their anti-open border position. Also very predictable is the anti-Chinese, anti-Asian factor that is already taking place.

Administration officials are predicting most likely only mild economic repercussions here in the US.


If there are only 300 deaths and 14000 cases then it’s a 2% fatality rate but I don’t see how you can be sure of the numbers since it’s a communist country with problems of sharing accuate information

We can't be sure of the numbers right now.  There's likely many more mild cases that haven't been accounted for and possibly some mis-attributed deaths as well.


I am not sure how a flu can have high numbers mostly confined within one city. I have doubts that that fits many patterns of how flu spreads. By the time they realize that there is a flu then it should have spread elsewhere.

It's not the flu, it's a novel coronavirus most closely related to an animal strain that became transmissible human to human within the geographic area of Wuhan, a central transport hub of China.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #128 on: February 02, 2020, 04:27:19 PM »
This graphic shows were Wuhan fits in with other infectious diseases.  With the limited data we have available, its lethality and ability to spread could wind up being anywhere inside the pink rectangle and, more likely than not, winds up being closer in character to seasonal flu than SARS.


Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #129 on: February 02, 2020, 04:41:56 PM »
Bloomberg:  Coronavirus May Transmit Along Fecal-Oral Route, Xinhua Reports

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Virus genetic material was discovered in patient stool and rectal swabs, Xinhua said Sunday. The finding was made by scientists from the Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences after noting that some patients infected with the 2019-nCoV virus had diarrhea early in the disease, instead of a fever, which is more common, the report said.

That means the pathogen might be transmitted along the fecal-oral route, not just from coming into contact with virus-laden droplets emitted from a sick person’s cough.


Crap.  One more reason the poor countries could get hit hard.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #130 on: February 02, 2020, 05:17:17 PM »
Crap.

That... is the only appropriate word.

Offline surfivor

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #131 on: February 02, 2020, 06:56:11 PM »

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #132 on: February 02, 2020, 07:15:14 PM »
Interesting website

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

I agree.  It looks like it's in sync with the Johns Hopkins data.

Offline surfivor

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #133 on: February 02, 2020, 07:20:41 PM »
According to data I found on the web, they claims the Spanish flu in 1918 killed 3% to 6% of the worlds population but in Vermont  I see it was well under 1% or close to half of one percent

Other websites claim spanish flu killed 1/3 of the worlds population so that seems possibly inaccurate?

https://vermonthistory.org/flu-epidemic-1918

Statistics reported by the Board of Health for 1918 show the devastation. In a state with a population of 355,956 in the 1910 census, there were 43,735 cases of influenza in 1918, resulting in 1,772 deaths. The disease thus attacked 13 percent of the population and accounted for 25 percent of deaths for the year


===============

Smithsonian admits Spanish flu happened mostly at military camps, urban areas and was connected to poor sanitation and poor nutrition; and yet in the US itself the death rate appears low and especially in rural areas is my impression

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/ten-myths-about-1918-flu-pandemic-180967810/

Much of the high death rate can be attributed to crowding in military camps and urban environments, as well as poor nutrition and sanitation, which suffered during wartime. It’s now thought that many of the deaths were due to the development of bacterial pneumonias in lungs weakened by influenza.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2020, 07:41:21 PM by surfivor »

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #134 on: February 02, 2020, 07:23:26 PM »
That... is the only appropriate word.

Great.  And now it's in the area that cant keep human feces off the streets.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/02/coronavirus-live-updates-white-house-studying-economic-impact.html
Ninth US case confirmed in California as White House studies economic impact of coronavirus outbreak

The ninth U.S. case of coronavirus was confirmed in Santa Clara County on Sunday. It's the second case in the San Francisco Bay area. The case is in a woman who was recently in Wuhan, China, and visited the U.S. to see family on Jan 23, according to the County of Santa Clara Public Health Department.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #135 on: February 02, 2020, 07:40:05 PM »
Good thing the homeless don't fly back and forth to China.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #136 on: February 02, 2020, 08:54:20 PM »
Apparently there is concern by some doctors in China that toilet flushing could potentially aersolize a sufficient number of virus particles to transmit the infections to others nearby.  But the jury's still out, awaiting more data.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3048611/coronavirus-scientists-identify-possible-new-mode-transmission

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The professor said it was possible the coronavirus might be transmitted via faeces. After entering the intestine and multiplying, it may then be excreted and come into contact with a person's hands, he said.

He also warned that the virus could be turned to vapour by the force of a toilet flushing, endangering people in the same room.

“Now disinfection of toilets may be on the agenda,” Zhang told the Beijing News. “Toilets used by patients with new coronary pneumonia or suspected patients need to be thoroughly disinfected and the restroom must be ventilated.”

However, Feng Luzhao, a researcher with Chinse Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, said further investigation was needed to prove transmission through this method. He said the recent findings only indicated the virus could replicate and exist in the digestive tract.

“Whether it is transmitted through the feces or re-transmitted via the formation of aerosols by virus-containing droplets, we need epidemiological investigation and research to further confirm,” Feng said at a daily press conference held by the National Health Commission on Sunday.

The phenomena still served as a reminder of the importance of washing your hands frequently, Feng said.


It really, really sucks having to generate so much of the epidemiology for this disease on the fly like this. 

Offline Carver

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #137 on: February 02, 2020, 09:38:53 PM »
I have a personal interest in this situation as my son lives in Laos and travels in that area and his girlfriend is from China. Her planned April trip to her home, 600 miles from Wuhan, has been cancelled. He says a lot of people are wearing masks.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #138 on: February 03, 2020, 06:33:16 AM »
Good thing the homeless don't fly back and forth to China.

Unfortunately, Chinatown borders the worst area.  It is just to left of Financial District on thie below feces alert map.  The problem area centers on Union Square just South of it.  I know the area well as for three years I spent every other week there on business back in 90s.  it has declined precipitously since then.


Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #139 on: February 03, 2020, 09:02:09 AM »
I guess it’s nature’s solution to California’s housing crisis.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #140 on: February 03, 2020, 09:02:53 AM »
On the other hand, Chinatown businesses have been taking precautions from the start.  They seem on top of things.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/amp/Coronavirus-hits-Bay-Area-businesses-travel-to-15021156.php
Coronavirus hits Bay Area businesses, travel to China: ‘Nobody wants to fly there’

Ding Lee, president of the local chapter of the Chinese Consolidated Benevolent Association, said several Chinatown restaurants have canceled holiday banquets that would typically attract hundreds of people. Restaurants are a big part of the economy in the historic neighborhood, and it will take a hit if more banquets are canceled, he said.

Yet those same fears are boosting other businesses. Weee, a Fremont grocery delivery company that specializes in Chinese products, saw its sales jump by 30%. Customers told the company they are trying to avoid going to places with crowds, including Asian supermarkets, CEO Larry Liu said.

Liu’s firm strongly encouraged its employees to cancel or postpone trips to China until the outbreak is contained. Employees who return from China are subject to a two-week quarantine before they can return to the office, he said.

Many larger Bay Area companies have instituted similar policies, requiring employees to work from home for 14 days after returning from China.

Getting home may soon be harder. United Airlines announced Friday that it will stop flying to China next week until the end of March, including flights from its SFO hub. It will still run one daily flight to Hong Kong. China Southern Airlines canceled its three weekly flights from Wuhan to SFO after the Chinese government closed that city’s airport.

“The demand simply has gone down, nobody wants to fly there,” Kain said. Because of the official bans and corporate policies against travel, she said, businesses will be less able to monitor Chinese suppliers.

Other businesses that routinely send employees to China, such as consulting firms, will be less affected by the flight restrictions, because much of their work can be done remotely, said Vinod Aggarwal, a professor at UC Berkeley and director of the Berkeley Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Study Center.

The Coast Guard is also monitoring large ships and getting advance notice for vessels that might have been in a coronavirus-infected port. Operators are required to report sick or deceased crew and passengers within the past 15 days to the CDC.

The cuts in flights and travel restrictions will hit tourism, a big industry in San Francisco and the Bay Area. As the Chinese middle class has grown, more tourists from more parts of the country take flights to San Francisco and pump money into the local economy, according to Sean Randolph, senior director of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. More than 500,000 tourists came from China to San Francisco in 2019, according to San Francisco Travel.

Bay Area residents are also canceling personal trips. Lee of the Chinatown group had planned to take a cruise next week with stops throughout southeast Asia, including Singapore, Thailand, Cambodia and Hong Kong. But after several airlines canceled flights to and from China, Lee feared he would be isolated or quarantined upon his return. Instead of risking exposure, he chose to cancel the cruise — losing $6,000 on the nonrefundable trip.

“I had no choice,” Lee said. “Keeping our community safe, that’s the most important.”


Offline David in MN

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #141 on: February 03, 2020, 10:18:52 AM »
Anybody feeling pushback here? The seasonal flu we do nothing to prevent has already killed on the order of 10,000 and hospitalized ~200,000. Coronavirus is marginally worse than this humdrum flu we disregard as the price of being in the game.

Something stinks here and the coverage is incredibly overblown. We're not talking about a Marburg variant where you bleed out of your eyes; most of us would think of this as a bad cold.

Somebody is making money or pushing a policy.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #142 on: February 03, 2020, 10:38:53 AM »
It’s true, anyone in North America freaking out over this who hasn’t gotten their flu shot has got everything ass-backwards.

What’s going on in Asia is a different story, though.

Offline David in MN

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #143 on: February 03, 2020, 11:18:02 AM »
Well I don't get a flu shot but it's because (for me, not advice) I have determined it not to be statistically beneficial.

But I do worry that this story has legs because it offers too much to too many. Our media LOVES a pandemic story to drive viewers/readers. This dovetails way too neatly into the Hong Kong independence movement. The Chinese get to experiment at closing a city. The travel restrictions hit those on the borders, notably the Uyghers the Chinese have been trying to exterminate.

Just too many odd coincidences for me to believe a mild flu is worth the hype.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #144 on: February 03, 2020, 11:37:39 AM »
But I do worry that this story has legs because it offers too much to too many. Our media LOVES a pandemic story to drive viewers/readers.
...
Just too many odd coincidences for me to believe a mild flu is worth the hype.

Definitely no need for panic in US.  But what we dont want to do is take the typical 50,000 deaths from flu and add another 50,000 on top of that.  That this disease can go ten days without symptoms manifesting gives it the ability to spread quickly.  And that it can cause pneumonia that can kill even younger, healthy people makes it a legitimate threat. 

So it seems prudent to not travel there and to have people who have travelled there to isolate themselves for a couple weeks in addition to practicing good hygiene.  And it doesnt hurt having some masks and appropriate surface disinfectant on hand.

But of course, we also need to watch for overeach.  Politicians are good at "not letting a crisis go to waste."

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #145 on: February 03, 2020, 02:38:21 PM »
What a way to end a vacation.

https://abcstlouis.com/news/nation-world/cruise-ship-passenger-tests-positive-for-virus
Cruise ship passenger tests positive for virus

The ship returned to Yokohama carrying 3,000 passengers and crew members after making port calls in Vietnam, Taiwan and Okinawa. A team of quarantine officials and medical staff boarded the ship on Monday night and began medical checks of everyone on board...

He said some people on the ship have developed coughs, fevers and other symptoms, though they were not yet linked to the virus. The passengers and crew members may be quarantined on the ship if the captain agrees to do so, the official said.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #146 on: February 03, 2020, 03:43:24 PM »
I think Southeast Asia could turn out to be worse than China.

With the bulk of the world’s merchant marine manpower, the lion’s share of global expatriate domestic and labor workers, plus poor public health infrastructure and governments with no wherewithal to confront the next door superpower, things could get grim. 

Is China going to roll out field hospitals in Manila, Jakarta, Saigon, and whoever else needs it?

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #147 on: February 03, 2020, 03:51:59 PM »
Is China going to roll out field hospitals in Manila, Jakarta, Saigon, and whoever else needs it?

Heck, the Hong Kong health care workers had to go on strike to get them to take basic steps to stem flow of infected individuals.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #148 on: February 03, 2020, 08:14:02 PM »
Hong Kong had it's first death, the second to occur outside of mainland China.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #149 on: February 03, 2020, 08:29:55 PM »
WSJ:  Fast-moving coronavirus outbreak in China has created a live global public-health experiment in containment

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Amid the fast-moving coronavirus outbreak emanating from China, companies, governments and schools are developing policies on the fly to try to halt the spread, creating a live global public-health experiment in containment.

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Outright travel bans might have come too late to fully stop the contagion, some experts say. “At this point, the cows are out of the barn,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s center for infectious disease research and policy. “To think that we’re going to stop it by ending travel is not at all practical.”

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“We either stop it now or we never stop it,” said Lawrence Gostin, the director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University. “We have to be prepared for the possibility that this is going to be like the seasonal flu.”

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Travel bans also often discourage international cooperation and have social and economic consequences that some experts say can damage the public-health response, especially if countries become more secretive about their case numbers to avoid travel and trade repercussions.

Others, however, say it makes sense that airlines would want to avoid putting their employees in danger and that countries want to protect their own citizens.

“At the start of an outbreak, there’s a fog of war,” said Nathan Grubaugh, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health. “You’re trying to weigh two bad choices to figure out which is worse, and I think in this case, limited travel and trade is worse.”

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“If you happen to walk down the street and pass someone with the virus you’re not going to catch it from them,” said Robert Citronberg, an infectious-disease specialist at Advocate Health Care in Illinois. Instead, health authorities are attempting to turn fears over the coronavirus into action against a more immediate threat: “A lot of people who are concerned about the coronavirus haven’t even gotten a flu shot,” he said.