Author Topic: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China  (Read 9978 times)

Offline Mr. Bill

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Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« on: January 20, 2020, 01:56:42 PM »
NPR, 1/20/20: Coronavirus In China: Over 200 Cases, Human-To-Human Transmission

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New information is being reported about the new coronavirus that emerged in China in December and causes respiratory symptoms such as pneumonia — heightening concerns about its potential threat to humans.

On Monday, Chinese authorities reported that the total caseload has risen to over 200, roughly tripling the previous number. In addition, authorities in Wuhan, where the virus was first reported, confirmed a third death but did not release details except to say that the three victims, all men, had prior illnesses.

Health authorities believe that the virus probably originated in an as yet unidentified animal species and was transmitted to humans by contact with animals at a live animal market in the central city of Wuhan. ...

On Monday, Zhong Nanshan, the epidemiologist who leads the committee on the outbreak for China's National Health Commission, gave a TV interview stating there was evidence of human-to-human transmission.

China's National Health Commission also confirmed that there has been infection of medical staff. ...

This is unusual for China:
Quote
...On Monday, President Xi Jinping gave an interview to the state-run Xinhua News Agency in which he called on officials to "release outbreak information in a timely manner and deepen international cooperation." ...
« Last Edit: February 21, 2020, 11:57:13 AM by Mr. Bill »

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2020, 02:07:40 PM »
AP, 1/21/20: US gets 1st case of mysterious new Chinese illness

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...a Washington state resident who returned last week from the outbreak’s epicenter was hospitalized in good condition near Seattle.

The man, identified only as a Snohomish County resident is in his 30s, was not considered a threat to medical staff or the public, health officials said. ...

Late last week, U.S. health officials began screening passengers from Wuhan in central China, where the outbreak began, at three U.S. airports — New York City’s Kennedy airport and the Los Angeles and San Francisco airports. On Tuesday, the CDC announced it will add Chicago’s O’Hare airport and Atlanta’s airport to the mix later this week.

What’s more, officials will begin forcing all passengers that originate in Wuhan to go to one of those five airports if they wish to enter the U.S. ...

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2020, 02:54:11 PM »
The Timeline Of The Coronavirus Outbreak

December 31 2019:
The WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. Around 44 suspected cases were reported in the month of December.

January 1 2020:
A seafood market was closed for environmental sanitation and disinfection after being closely linked with the patients.

January 5 2020:
Doctors ruled out severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) as being the cause of the virus, as well as bird flu, Middle East respiratory syndrome and adenovirus. Meanwhile, Hong Kong reported

January 9 2020:
A preliminary investigation identified the respiratory disease as a new type of coronavirus, Chinese state media reported.

Officials at Wuhan Municipal Health Commission reported the outbreak's first death on January 9, a 61-year-old man.

January 13 2020:
A Chinese woman in Thailand was the first confirmed case of the mystery virus outside of China. The 61-year-old was quarantined on January 8, but has since returned home in a stable condition after having treatment, the Thai Health Ministry said.

January 14 2020:
The WHO told hospitals around the globe to prepare, in the 'possible' event of the infection spreading.

It said there is some 'limited' human-to-human transmission of the virus. Two days previously, the UN agency said there was 'no clear evidence of human to human transmission'.

January 16 2020:
A man in Tokyo is confirmed to have tested positive for the disease after travelling to the Chinese city of Wuhan.

A second death, a 69-year-old man, was reported by officials at Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. He died in the early hours of January 15 at Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan city having first been admitted to hospital on December 31.

January 17 2020:
Thailand announces it has detected a second case. The 74-year-old woman had been quarantined since her arrival on Monday. She lived in Wuhan.

Scientists at Imperial College London fear up to 4,500 patients in Wuhan may have caught the virus. A report said if cases are this high, substantial human to human transmission can't be ruled out.

January 20 2020:
China reported a sharp rise in the number of people infected with a new coronavirus over the weekend, including 136 more cases in Wuhan city.
The outbreak spread across China, as authorities in Shenzhen in southern China reported one case, and Chinese state media said Beijing had reported two cases.

South Korea confirmed its first case - a 35-year-old woman arriving at Seoul’s Incheon airport tested positive for the virus. She had been in Wuhan the week prior.

The total number of confirmed cases reached 205, including three deaths and four confirmed cases outside China.

Details were not revealed about the third death.
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Lines growing in China for face masks - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7911781/People-China-queue-buy-face-masks-amid-fears-outbreak-deadly-virus.html

Medics in China screening passengers - https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/01/20/watch-china-medics-reportedly-scanning-plane-passengers-for-wuhan-virus/

Airlines are stocking planes with hazmat suites - https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/hazmat-suits-deployed-on-planes-as-security-tightens-over-virus

suspected cases in Australia and Philippines - https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/philippines-australia-probe-suspected-cases-of-wuhan-virus

Chinese officials urge people not to travel in and out of city at center of virus outbreak - https://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/Chinese-officials-urge-people-not-to-travel-in-14991226.php

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2020, 01:12:06 PM »
China reported a sharp rise in the number of people infected with a new coronavirus over the weekend

One of the problems we have during a disease outbreak: when there's a sharp rise in reports, does that mean there was a sharp rise in cases of the disease, or does it mean there were a whole lot mroe people tested (and therefore a whole lot more cases discovered)?  We don't know.

Also, we don't know how many people are infected with the same virus, but are only experiencing mild symptoms and don't bother going to a doctor.  This can also distort our perception of the death rate (if it's only the seriously-ill who get tested).

Online FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #4 on: January 22, 2020, 01:34:11 PM »
China is locking down the city of Wuhan and preventing any travel out of the city.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #5 on: January 22, 2020, 02:29:46 PM »
Wiley press release, 1/22/20: Researchers Trace Coronavirus Outbreak in China to Snakes

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...patients who became infected with the virus—which is a type of virus called a coronavirus and was named 2019-nCoV by the World Health Organization—were exposed to wildlife animals at a wholesale market, where seafood, poultry, snake, bats, and farm animals were sold.

By conducting a detailed genetic analysis of the virus and comparing it with available genetic information on different viruses from various geographic locations and host species, the investigators concluded that the 2019-nCoV appears to be a virus that formed from a combination of a coronavirus found in bats and another coronavirus of unknown origin. ...

Finally, the team uncovered evidence that the 2019-nCoV likely resided in snakes before being transmitted to humans. Recombination within the viral receptor-binding protein may have allowed for cross-species transmission from snake to humans. ...

Online FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #6 on: January 22, 2020, 07:41:51 PM »
Too many people, too many animals, all too close together. 

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2020, 05:04:58 AM »
Two nearby cities have been locked down by China in an attempt to slow the spread of this novel coronavirus, just as New Years holiday travel kicks off.  Restricting the movement of 20 million people is difficult to achieve and often counterproductive in pandemics. But China is high tech surveillance state and might have more success. 

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2020, 11:35:26 AM »
WaPo:  Chinese cities cancel New Year celebrations, travel ban widens in effort to stop coronavirus outbreak

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Major Chinese cities, including Beijing and virus-hit Wuhan, banned all large gatherings over the coming Lunar New Year festival, the most important holiday on the Chinese calendar, in an expanding effort contain the rapidly spreading outbreak.

The announcement Thursday came as authorities expanded travel restrictions imposed on Wuhan to surrounding municipalities, shutting down travel networks and attempting to quarantine about 25 million people — more than the population of Florida.

Quote
The extreme measures were accompanied by other indications that Communist Party authorities were struggling to control the outbreak, notably the aggressive censorship of any criticism or skepticism on social media.

But some outspoken doctors warned that the controls would not be enough to stop the spread of the pneumonia-like virus, which has now killed 17 people in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province.

“A bigger outbreak is certain,” said Guan Yi, a virologist who helped identify severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003. He estimated — “conservatively,” he said — that this outbreak could be 10 times bigger than the SARS epidemic because that virus was transmitted by only a few “super spreaders” in a more defined part of the country.

“We have passed through the ‘golden period’ for prevention and control,” he told Caixin magazine from self-imposed quarantine after visiting Wuhan. “What’s more, we’ve got the holiday traffic rush and a dereliction of duty from certain officials.”

Offline LvsChant

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Offline surfivor

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2020, 04:37:56 PM »

Coronavirus patent I think was approved 2 years ago

https://patents.justia.com/patent/10130701

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2020, 05:37:42 PM »
Coronavirus patent I think was approved 2 years ago

https://patents.justia.com/patent/10130701

It's for making a vaccine for a specific coronavirus that infects birds, so probably not directly useful with the current China outbreak, but the technique might be worth trying.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #12 on: January 23, 2020, 07:32:27 PM »
Coronavirus patent I think was approved 2 years ago

https://patents.justia.com/patent/10130701

Ah, you found this on InfoWars, didn't you?  "Is Coronavirus A Manmade Depopulation Weapon?"

Did you see this sentence in the patent?

Quote
Coronaviruses are believed to cause a significant percentage of all common colds in human adults.

Look here:

ViPR (Virus Pathogen Resource): Coronaviridae Data Summary

There are 1039 identified species of Coronavirus (so far), broken down further into 26,966 strains.

Here's a summary, from the patent you linked:

Quote
Coronaviruses are divided into four groups, as shown below:

        Alpha
            Canine coronavirus (CCoV)
            Feline coronavirus (FeCoV)
            Human coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E)
            Porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDV)
            Transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV)
            Human Coronavirus NL63 (NL or New Haven)
        Beta
            Bovine coronavirus (BCoV)
            Canine respiratory coronavirus (CRCoV)—Common in SE Asia and Micronesia
            Human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43)
            Mouse hepatitis virus (MHV)
            Porcine haemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus (HEV)
            Rat coronavirus (Roy). Rat Coronavirus is quite prevalent in Eastern Australia where, as of March/April 2008, it has been found among native and feral rodent colonies.
            (No common name as of yet) (HCoV-HKU1)
            Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)
            Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)
        Gamma
            Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV)
            Turkey coronavirus (Bluecomb disease virus)
            Pheasant coronavirus
            Guinea fowl coronavirus
        Delta
            Bulbul coronavirus (BuCoV)
            Thrush coronavirus (ThCoV)
            Munia coronavirus (MuCoV)
            Porcine coronavirus (PorCov) HKU15

The patent is concerned with avian Infectious Bronchitis Virus (IBV), which is in the Gamma group.

The new Chinese virus, 2019-nCoV, is in the Beta group, so it is not closely related to IBV.

Therefore, this patent has nothing whatsoever to do with any alleged manmade source of 2019-nCoV.  The actual source of the virus has already been traced to animal sources, the infected people were exposed to those animal sources, so there is no reason to invent a "depopulation weapon" conspiracy to explain it.

Online FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #13 on: January 24, 2020, 05:00:55 AM »
Apparently there are 35 million Chinese subject to travel restrictions. And hospitals in those zones are running out of supplies and staff and full of freaked out patients with fevers.

There’s a possible second US case with recent travel from Wuhan being worked up in Texas.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2020, 05:07:27 AM by FreeLancer »

Online FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #14 on: January 24, 2020, 05:17:26 AM »
And 10 possibles are isolated in California awaiting lab confirmation.

Offline Stwood

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #15 on: January 24, 2020, 09:23:44 AM »
May be time to stock up on masks for future use?

Offline LvsChant

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #16 on: January 24, 2020, 10:25:46 AM »
@Freelancer: Did you see anything on the projected death rate of this virus? From what I read, it is mutating, so...

Offline Carver

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #17 on: January 24, 2020, 10:27:45 AM »
@Freelancer: Did you see anything on the projected death rate of this virus? From what I read, it is mutating, so...
I read somewhere 65 million.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #18 on: January 24, 2020, 11:15:05 AM »
Counterperspective being retweeted by many doctors today.

https://nypost.com/2020/01/23/dont-buy-the-media-hype-over-the-new-china-virus/
Don’t buy the media hype over the new China virus

What we can say for sure is that Wuhan will be a lot worse in China, simply because health care there is vastly inferior. It appears that, like flu, Wuhan usually kills through ­often treatable secondary infections. Well, treatable in the West. You’d be surprised at how many potentially deadly diseases ­(malaria, TB) Americans get that wreak havoc in much of the world but kill essentially none of us.

It also appears those most likely to die of Wuhan-virus deaths fit the same profile as flu fatalities: people over 65, those with compromised immune systems and those with serious pre-existing conditions. Two of the 17 Wuhan dead were 89-year-olds with pre-existing conditions; the youngest was 48 and suffering from diabetes and a stroke.

Contagiousness is highly important, of course. But so far, there is no evidence that Wuhan, first ­reported more than three weeks ago, is more contagious than ­influenza or spreads differently.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2020, 11:44:43 AM by iam4liberty »


Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #20 on: January 24, 2020, 01:39:12 PM »
And 10 possibles are isolated in California awaiting lab confirmation.

Do you know what part of California ?  ( I have an offspring who is doing graduate studies at a UC )

Online FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #21 on: January 24, 2020, 02:13:43 PM »
@Freelancer: Did you see anything on the projected death rate of this virus? From what I read, it is mutating, so...

It's a novel virus that we're still obtaining data on so the mortality and particulars on human to human transmission are not clear.  The closest comparisons appear to be SARS and MERS.

Here's the CDC summary:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html

Quote
When person-to-person spread has occurred with MERS and SARS, it is thought to have happened via respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes, similar to how influenza and other respiratory pathogens spread. Spread of MERS and SARS between people has generally occurred between close contacts. Past MERS and SARS outbreaks have been complex, requiring comprehensive public health responses.

Early on, many of the patients in the outbreak in Wuhan, China reportedly had some link to a large seafood and animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread. However, a growing number of patients reportedly have not had exposure to animal markets, suggesting person-to-person spread is occurring. At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people.

Both MERS and SARS have been known to cause severe illness in people. The situation with regard to 2019-nCoV is still unclear. While severe illness, including illness resulting in a number of deaths has been reported in China, other patients have had milder illness and been discharged.

There are ongoing investigations to learn more. This is a rapidly evolving situation and information will be updated as it becomes available.

Quote
While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.


These are the CDC recommendations for healthcare providers caring for suspected cases, which is more than sufficient for the public at this point:

Quote
Although the transmission dynamics have yet to be determined, CDC currently recommends a cautious approach to patients under investigation for 2019 Novel Coronavirus Such patients should be asked to wear a surgical mask as soon as they are identified and be evaluated in a private room with the door closed, ideally an airborne infection isolation room if available. Healthcare personnel entering the room should use standard precautions, contact precautions, airborne precautions, and use eye protection (e.g., goggles or a face shield). Immediately notify your healthcare facility’s infection control personnel and local health department.




Do you know what part of California ?  ( I have an offspring who is doing graduate studies at a UC )

My best guess is these individuals were identified through the mandatory airport screening at LAX or SFO of passengers arriving from China.

Offline surfivor

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #22 on: January 24, 2020, 05:03:52 PM »
Ah, you found this on InfoWars, didn't you?  "Is Coronavirus A Manmade Depopulation Weapon?"

Did you see this sentence in the patent?

Look here:

ViPR (Virus Pathogen Resource): Coronaviridae Data Summary

There are 1039 identified species of Coronavirus (so far), broken down further into 26,966 strains.

Here's a summary, from the patent you linked:

The patent is concerned with avian Infectious Bronchitis Virus (IBV), which is in the Gamma group.

The new Chinese virus, 2019-nCoV, is in the Beta group, so it is not closely related to IBV.

Therefore, this patent has nothing whatsoever to do with any alleged manmade source of 2019-nCoV.  The actual source of the virus has already been traced to animal sources, the infected people were exposed to those animal sources, so there is no reason to invent a "depopulation weapon" conspiracy to explain it.

It won’t matter if their patent matches the virus or not. It won’t matter if it’s effective or safe. If the threat of pandemic seems slightly possible they will suddenly push for quarantines and mandatory vaccinations. It will be criminal to question it. That’s what they would like to do. Our state started talking quarantines back when there was a flu in Mexico a number of years ago and people where upset about that

Offline fritz_monroe

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #23 on: January 24, 2020, 05:47:04 PM »
Adding a little levity to a serious subject.

Heard on a podcast yesterday someone referred to it as the Kung Flu. 

I have a feeling that there's quite a bit of media hype going on with this virus.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #24 on: January 24, 2020, 05:48:18 PM »



My best guess is these individuals were identified through the mandatory airport screening at LAX or SFO of passengers arriving from China.

The screening only pulls out those already showing a temperature.  Ones not showing a symptom yet will be back on campus. But, what else can you do ?  Hopefully if they feel sick, they will stay out of public transport and get medical attention and not go to class. 

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #25 on: January 24, 2020, 06:12:58 PM »
But, what else can you do ? 

Not much.

Offline surfivor

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #26 on: January 24, 2020, 06:22:14 PM »

It seems like topping off the propane tanks, checking dried food inventory, getting some extra chain saw fuel, colloidal silver, or other supplies is something to think about or keep an eye on the situation.

If there is any possibility of quarantines then things could go bad and traveling or going out in some areas could be limited and grocery shelves could get bought out as well

Offline Carver

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #27 on: January 24, 2020, 07:53:48 PM »
Empty malls, shopping centers, airports would mean a major global economic disaster.

Online FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #28 on: January 25, 2020, 07:43:50 AM »
China has 50 million people on lockdown and Hong Kong is closing schools for three weeks. Healthcare workers are wearing diapers so they don’t risk tearing their protective gear taking them on and off because supplies are running low in overcrowded hospitals. 

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