Author Topic: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China  (Read 24186 times)

Offline David in MN

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #240 on: February 15, 2020, 04:12:13 PM »
Wow the paranoia is getting big. After doing a big homemade dinner last night we got takeout a little early today to have a relaxing evening we don't have to clean up after.

The young lady who served me asked if I have coronavirus after I blew my nose. It's been below 0 for 2 days and my nose is runny. She covered her mouth to talk to me.

It's gotten a little nuts. But a Vietnamese takeout isn't the locale to debate disease data. Just wish common sense had a place these days.

Online Morning Sunshine

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #241 on: February 15, 2020, 04:25:18 PM »
maybe I am a bit snotty, but my first reaction would have been to look at her innocently and say "I don't drink beer, Corona or otherwise."

I actually would not say that to a stranger, but I would have thought it  :-[

Offline Carver

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #242 on: February 15, 2020, 10:01:47 PM »
Quote
She covered her mouth to talk to me.
But not enough to keep you from hearing her.

But there is a more serious issue here; can one be charged with a crime for sneezing in public? If you had a cold or the flu and you knew you had it and went in public and expelled germs/viruses via sneezing, coughing or a handshake after wiping off a drippy nose, could that be considered a crime? I'm going to have to say it might be.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #243 on: February 16, 2020, 06:29:02 AM »
When to hunker down vs. bug out can be a tough choice.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/quarantined-diamond-princess-passenger-speaks-out-against-us-coronavirus-evacuation-plan.amp
Quarantined cruise ship passenger speaks out against US coronavirus evacuation plan

https://youtu.be/f3dU8VF-vW4
Quarantine cruise passengers battle disease and boredom
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 06:34:18 AM by iam4liberty »

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #244 on: February 16, 2020, 07:56:11 AM »
Ugh.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/02/16/were-in-limbo-metro-detroit-family-stranded-in-cambodia-amid-coronavirus-concerns/
‘We’re in limbo’ -- Metro Detroit family stranded in Cambodia amid coronavirus concerns.

After being rejected by five countries, the passengers on the Holland America cruise ship can finally experience some relief -- briefly.

The cruise ship finally docked in Cambodia. Passengers were let off the ship and -- according to Michigan-native Steve Muth -- it was a celebration.

“We had the prime minister of Cambodia here," Muth said. "Big ceremony, flew in on helicopter, a lot of cheering and hooplah.”

It didn’t last long though.

“Allegedly, supposedly, somebody -- I believe an 83-year-old American woman -- came down with the illness sometime after leaving the ship," Muth said.

Now they’re all holed up in a hotel room, unable to leave Cambodia.

“We’re in limbo, man," Muth said. "Right now, we don’t know where we’re going to be or how we’re getting home.”

Offline David in MN

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #245 on: February 16, 2020, 09:14:33 AM »
Survivors are reporting mild flu like symptoms. Americans and Japanese recover well unless very old or very young or already compromised like any seasonal flu.

What is going on in China? Are we seeing an immuno-compromised society due to air pollution? Is there a genetic impact of this disease? Are we merely witnessing a society totally unprepared for a viral event?

The scary metric of corona isn't getting the disease; it's being in China. For the mortality rate to be radically different depending on what patch of grass you're standing on means there is a lurking variable.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #246 on: February 16, 2020, 10:04:18 AM »
Survivors are reporting mild flu like symptoms. Americans and Japanese recover well unless very old or very young or already compromised like any seasonal flu.

What is going on in China? Are we seeing an immuno-compromised society due to air pollution? Is there a genetic impact of this disease? Are we merely witnessing a society totally unprepared for a viral event?

There have been Japanese and American deaths as well as one from Taiwan.  It is about 1 in 20 to 30 for Americans so far. 

Offline David in MN

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #247 on: February 16, 2020, 10:31:12 AM »
There have been Japanese and American deaths as well as one from Taiwan.  It is about 1 in 20 to 30 for Americans so far.

Yeah but consider the sample. The sort who do international travel and frequent cruise ships are... older. So you have a high hit in the most vulnerable population. That's not representative of the population as a whole.

I'm not making any claim. But the data is skewed to me that we need to have a look at why this is a death sentence in China but most people outside bounce back. Something here is wrong.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #248 on: February 16, 2020, 05:25:07 PM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/11/coronavirus-evacuee-san-diego-released
U.S. coronavirus patient was mistakenly discharged from hospital because of lab error, CDC says

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #249 on: February 17, 2020, 02:50:38 AM »
I've been trying to find CDC data on the current Covid-19 lab testing sensitivity and specificity but haven't been able to find anything.  The closest thing I could find was this Medium article:  Bayes’ Rule, Decision Making, And Containing COVID-19 With Unreliable Diagnostic Tests

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Do tests even add any valuable information in Wuhan patients?

For a 40% sensitive, 90% specific test, we just saw that it takes 8 consecutive negative results to reduce a 50% probability of infection to less than 5% (where very low probabilities are required to reduce the risk of contagion). We also saw that it takes 2 consecutive negative results to reduce 8% to less than 5%. What is the probability of a person in Wuhan being infected, if they:

    Have already shown signs in a CT scan? (surely >50% probability?)
    Have a cough/fever? (surely >8% probability?)
    Are related to someone who has been infected?
    Have entered any hospital?

It seems like testing for the purposes of ruling out infection is not a feasible solution in an active outbreak zone. There are simply not enough resources to test everyone multiple times.

This may partially explain why…… Authorities have already implemented large-scale containment measures — they assume that everyone is, or will be infected.


I'm not sure how close his estimates on the sensitivity and specificity are (40% sensitivity is terrible), but he is spot on in his explanation of how the statistical reliability of any medical test factors into the diagnostic process (at least it's consistent with what I was taught).  Even with tests that are both highly sensitive and specific you still wind up chasing down many false positives if they're not targeted toward the populations with higher probability or prevalence of disease (but good luck trying to explain that to another physician, let alone the soccer mom from Orange County).  Or worse, as in the case of Covid19, if you wind up with test conditions that carry a very high probability of releasing false-negatives (people who actually are infected) into the general population so they can spread the novel virus to others. 

His estimate of needing to perform 8 serial tests to get to a 95% confidence level for Covid19 confirmations kind of gives you an idea of the challenges facing public health systems with limited resources.  And it also helps to explain why the leap to harsh methods like quarantine has some grim logic behind it, as well as why China decided to ease off the original case definition to include CT evidence of pneumonia without lab confirmation.  Extraordinary circumstances call for extraordinary measures.



He's got another one:  The Reported Mortality Rate of Coronavirus Is Not Important

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Low Case-Fatality Rates Are Only Possible Because Of Modern Healthcare Services — What If We Lose These?

We know that case-fatality depends on access to healthcare services. This would be especially true for coronaviruses. But what would happen if the outbreak became too widespread, causing hospitals to run out of capacity and leaving people without access to healthcare services?

To see how we would fare without access to modern healthcare services, we look to the past. Spanish flu had no treatment at the time of outbreak in 1918, and it ended up causing at least 50 million deaths in the world with a case-fatality rate exceeding 2.5%. If SARS and MERS only achieved 10% and 34% with modern healthcare, then we could imagine it being far worse without it. Since the novel coronavirus produces similar symptoms and requires similar treatment, we may have a catastrophic situation if the outbreak strains healthcare resources, and thus, prevents additional patients from being admitted to hospitals.
The Availability of Resources — Where Is The Breaking Point?

Most of the figures we have now apply to Wuhan and Hubei. Hubei, the province of Wuhan, is economically in the top half of China’s provinces. Their healthcare system is decent, with 2.17 physicians and 5.46 hospital beds per 1000 people (from the 2015 China Health Statistics Year book). These numbers have probably grown since then. Wuhan, a city of 11 million, is one of 15 “new tier-1” cities, and according to a local government report in 2014, Wuhan had 6.51 hospital beds and 3.08 doctors per 1,000 people. Was this enough?


I think he's probably right.  If this new virus causes enough infections to overload our medical capacity to care for severe cases, we won't be seeing low single digit fatality percentages either.  China's major cities probably beat many Western countries in terms of medical capacity, although rural medical capacity in many parts of the US is already at crisis levels, so we better hope we can keep the epidemic at bay in North America for a year or so and hope for a vaccine.


It really sucks having to make the big decisions on how to fight a growing epidemic when you don't fully understand it or have the proper tools developed to combat a new virus.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #250 on: February 17, 2020, 03:07:07 AM »
NYT:  American learned evacuees were infected shortly before boarding a chartered flight.

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“During the evacuation process, after passengers had disembarked the ship and initiated transport to the airport, U.S. officials received notice that 14 passengers, who had been tested 2-3 days earlier, had tested positive for COVID-19,” the State Department and Department of Health and Human Services said in a joint statement, referring to the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

The 14 infected passengers were moved into a specialized containment area on the evacuation aircraft, where they were to be isolated and monitored. They had been found to be asymptomatic and “fit to fly” before the evacuation, according to the statement.

So we're they false positives?  Asymptomatic true positives capable of shedding virus particles? 

Who knows? 

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #251 on: February 17, 2020, 06:25:23 AM »
The cruise ship evacuees have landed in the US, with their 14 new positives almost doubling Covid19 cases to 29.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #252 on: February 17, 2020, 08:50:06 AM »
The Chinese are into money laundering.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/coronavirus-china-disinfects-cash-in-a-bid-to-stop-virus-spreading.html
China is sterilizing cash in an attempt to stop the coronavirus spreading

Banks across the country had been told to withdraw potentially infected cash from circulation and disinfect it using either ultraviolet or heat treatments, the government’s State Council told reporters. Decontaminated cash would then be stored for seven to 14 days before it could be returned to the market.

Money removed from high-risk sites such as hospitals and markets would be sealed and specially treated, but it would then be held by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) instead of re-entering circulation, officials said.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #253 on: February 17, 2020, 04:04:19 PM »
Several articles about Traditional Chinese Medicine ("TCM") and its use against coronavirus:


Foreign Policy, editorial by James Palmer, 2/3/20: Chinese Media Is Selling Snake Oil to Fight the Wuhan Virus

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As the new coronavirus continued its march across China this weekend, Xinhua, the nation’s official news service, advised a worried public to turn to herbal medicine. Shuanghuanglian, an oral remedy, sold out in stores across the country. The impetus for the Xinhua article came from a study supposedly conducted by two institutions, the Shanghai Institute of Materia Medica and the Wuhan Institute of Virology, using the principles of what the state calls traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), a major part of the Chinese medical system. State-backed TCM doesn’t include all traditional medical practices, it’s a very specific, state-backed set of treatments, theories, and drugs, many of which were invented in the 20th century.

Skeptics immediately criticized the advice, and the backlash to the initial Xinhua report led other parts of state media to play down the medicine’s magical properties. The popular medical site dxy.cn, which has become a go-to resource for information about the virus, also debunked the claims. ...

Shuanghuanglian is a mixture of honeysuckle, Chinese skullcap, and forsythia. Like many so-called traditional Chinese medicines, it was in fact invented in the 1960s, based on a mixture of the fictional humoral theories that underpin pre-modern Chinese medical theories and the herbology accumulated by Chinese medical practitioners over centuries. As with most such practices, the clinical evidence is highly inconclusive; there is some suggestion shuanghuanglian may aid in respiratory tract illnesses, but there is no evidence it can achieve success in the treatment of bacterial and viral infections, especially at scale. (Allergic reactions are also common in traditional medicine, despite regular claims by advocates that they are impossible; shuanghuanglian is no exception.)

TCM is big business. Modern practice is not a matter of herbalists and amateur doctors but industrialized pharmaceuticals—a $45 billion market in China annually just for such drugs. The industry in China is not alternative medicine but a thoroughly conventional and heavily government-backed business. ...

The industry has seen a renewed push under Chinese President Xi Jinping, always keen to emphasize historical nationalism. ... Xi’s past praise means that such practices have to be given a place in treating the virus, regardless of their usefulness or practicality, because of their institutional weight. ...


South China Morning Post, 2/6/20: ‘I must be on the front line’ of coronavirus epidemic,’ China’s bodybuilding traditional Chinese medicine doctor says

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...Yuan Herong is probably China’s most popular bodybuilder at the moment, and it’s not only because of her ripped and massive frame that complements her doll-like features, but because she also practises traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and works in a clinic in China. ...

“I’m a doctor. I must [be] on the front line. [I will] do my best to help the epidemic,” said the 30-year-old Qingdao-born Yuan in her latest Instagram post. ...

“171 cases of new pneumonia were cured and 15,238 suspected cases were found. The healers are all treated through traditional Chinese medicine and other symptomatic treatment. We will try our best to do a good job in prevention and treatment,” she said last week on Instagram. ...


PTI, 2/15/20: More than half of coronavirus cases in Hubei treated with traditional Chinese medicine: Official

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..."Since the beginning of the outbreak, the government has attached importance to both Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and Western medicine by mobilising the strongest scientific research and medical forces in both fields to treat the patients," Wang Hesheng, deputy head of China's National Health Commission, said.

Wang said that TCM has been applied in treating more than half of the confirmed patients of novel coronavirus infection in the country's Hubei province. ...

"TCM has also been used in the prevention and control of COVID-19 at the community level," Wang said. ...


CCN, editorial by William Ebbs, 2/16/20: China Exploits Coronavirus to Promote Dubious Traditional Remedies

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...Beijing may be exploiting the coronavirus crisis as an opportunity to bolster the multi-billion dollar market for traditional Chinese remedies.

China’s central government has sacked local officials and taken control of the healthcare administration in the hard-hit Hubei province. ...

The government is sending 2,200 more TCM workers to Hubei. They’re tasked with helping the province’s strained healthcare system deal with the coronavirus crisis.

Of the 56,249 confirmed coronavirus cases in Hubei, 1,596 have died, giving the virus a 2.84% fatality rate in the province. This is compared to a 0.9% fatality rate in nearby Chongqing and a 0.3% fatality rate in Hunan.

It is unclear what role, if any, TCM plays in the disparity between fatality rates in different Chinese provinces. But the limited data points aren’t encouraging. ...

To make matters even worse, there’s speculation that demand for traditional Chinese medicine may have caused the coronavirus outbreak in the first place.

TCM practitioners believe pangolin scales have medicinal value. And this has led to a flourishing – and illegal – trade of the endangered mammal.

Chinese researchers believe they have isolated a virus 99% similar to the Wuhan coronavirus. This virus is currently embedded in the wild pangolin population. ...


More about the possible pangolin connection:
Nature, 2/7/20: Did pangolins spread the China coronavirus to people?

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Researchers in Guangzhou, China, have suggested that pangolins — long-snouted, ant-eating mammals often used in traditional Chinese medicine — are the probable animal source of the coronavirus outbreak...

Scientists say that the suggestion, based on a genetic analysis, seems plausible — but caution that the researchers’ work is yet to be published in full. ...

...the South China Agricultural University in Guangzhou says that two of its researchers, Shen Yongyi and Xiao Lihua, have identified the pangolin as the potential source of nCoV-2019 on the basis of a genetic comparison of coronaviruses taken from the animals and from humans infected in the outbreak and other findings. The sequences are 99% similar, the researchers reported at press conference on 7 February. ...

Even before today’s announcement, pangolins were a good candidate for being an intermediate species for the virus, so it’s very interesting that the researchers have found such a close sequence...

The coronavirus emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December, and is thought to have leapt to humans at a seafood and wild-animal market, where many of the first people to become infected worked. Pangolins were not listed on an inventory of items sold at the market — although the illegality of trading pangolins could explain this omission. ...

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #254 on: February 18, 2020, 03:51:59 PM »
China CDC Weekly:  Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020

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Results: A total of 72,314 patient records—44,672 (61.8%) confirmed cases, 16,186 (22.4%) suspected cases, 10,567 (14.6%) clinically diagnosed cases (Hubei Province only), and 889 asymptomatic cases (1.2%)—contributed data for the analysis. Among confirmed cases, most were aged 30–79 years (86.6%), diagnosed in Hubei (74.7%), and considered mild (80.9%). A total of 1,023 deaths occurred among confirmed cases for an overall case fatality rate of 2.3%. The COVID-19 spread outward from Hubei Province sometime after December 2019, and by February 11, 2020, 1,386 counties across all 31 provinces were affected. The epidemic curve of onset of symptoms peaked around January 23–26, then began to decline leading up to February 11. A total of 1,716 health workers have become infected and 5 have died (0.3%).

Quote
The ≥80 age group had the highest case fatality rate of all age groups at 14.8%.

Quote
A major contribution of our study is a first description of the COVID-19 epidemic curves. We interpret the overall curve (Figure 3A) as having a mixed outbreak pattern—the data appear to indicate a continuous common source pattern of spread in December and then from early January through February 11, 2020, the data appear to have a propagated source pattern. This mixed outbreak time trend is consistent with the working theory that perhaps several zoonotic events occurred at Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan allowed 2019-nCoV to be transmitted from a still-unknown animal into humans and, due to its high mutation and recombination rates, it adapted to become capable of and then increasingly efficient at human-to-human transmission (3,8).

Quote
To date, there is no evidence of a super-spreader event occurring in any of the Chinese health facilities serving COVID-19 patients. However, we do not know whether this is due to the nature of the virus itself or whether these events have been successfully prevented.

Quote
China’s response is certainly an echo of lessons learned during SARS and is a tribute to the work China and other low- and middle-income countries have been doing, with the much-needed help of international partners, over the past few decades to build infectious disease surveillance systems and public health infrastructure capable of catching outbreaks early and responding swiftly using evidence-based best practices. The 2019-nCoV and other coronaviruses may continue to adapt over time to become more virulent (3), and zoonosis is not going to stop. We must remain vigilant, hone our skills, fund our defenses, and practice our responses, and we must help our neighbors to do the same.

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The massive vigorous actions taken by the Chinese government have slowed down the epidemic in China and curbed spread to the rest of the world. Although the epidemic appears to be in decline in the lead up to February 11, 2020, we may yet face more challenges. Huge numbers of people will soon be returning to work and school after the extended New Year holiday. We need to prepare for a possible rebound of the COVID-19 epidemic in the coming weeks and months.


Looking at Table 1 it's obvious this infection is not killing young people, as there are only a total of 8 deaths recorded in those under age 30, with 0 deaths under age 10 and only 1 death under age 20.  That's got to be a bit of good news for the world's educational facilities.

Offline bigbear

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #255 on: February 19, 2020, 09:44:35 AM »
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51558310

China has expelled 5 journalists, 3 of them WSJ writers.
Quote
China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said the article was "racist" and "denigrated" China's efforts to combat the outbreak that has killed more than 2,000 people in the country.

It seems that the journalists expelled did not write the opinion piece in question.  Maybe just an opportunistic time to get them out of the country.
Quote
The newspaper said the journalists - who had not written the opinion piece - were given five days to leave China.
  (emphasis mine)

Josh Chin - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/josh-chin
Quote
Josh Chin is a politics reporter in The Wall Street Journal's Beijing bureau, where he covers cybersecurity, law, human rights, media and other topics. Find him on Twitter: @joshchin.

His Twitter feed is interesting.
https://twitter.com/joshchin?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Chao Deng - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/chao-deng
Quote
Chao Deng is based in Beijing, where she writes about the Chinese economy, finance and trade. She previously covered markets and other financial topics from Shanghai and Hong Kong. You can email her at chao.deng@wsj.com and follow her on Twitter @chao_deng.

Philip Wen - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/philip-wen
Quote
Philip covers politics for The Wall Street Journal, based in Beijing. He previously worked for Reuters and before that was China Correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. Hailing from Melbourne, Philip was a qualified chartered accountant at an international advisory firm before pursuing a career in journalism.
https://twitter.com/philipwen11?lang=en

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #256 on: February 19, 2020, 02:39:45 PM »
Looks like the bug-out was a better option than the bug-in for this case.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/19/807418497/coronavirus-update-diamond-princess-passengers-leave-ship-as-expert-slams-quaran

Coronavirus Update: Diamond Princess Passengers Leave Ship As Expert Slams Quarantine

The quarantine has been heavily criticized for failing to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 among passengers and crew. Even as hundred of people disembarked, Japanese officials announced 79 more confirmed cases aboard the ship. And in at least one case, a family was informed of a positive test result just hours before they were scheduled to disembark.

A total of 621 people from the cruise ship have now been confirmed to have the newly identified coronavirus — or about 20% of the 3,011 people who had been tested as of Wednesday.

Offline Greekman

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #257 on: February 19, 2020, 02:49:39 PM »
Quote
Looks like the bug-out was a better option than the bug-in for this case.
..to be expected...
in fact any quarantine protects the outsiders of.
And seclusion works for those that are diagnosed.
Aboard that ship the sick and the healthy breathed the same air, and ate from the same kitchen, What should we expect?

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China
« Reply #258 on: February 19, 2020, 03:40:16 PM »
..to be expected...
in fact any quarantine protects the outsiders of.
And seclusion works for those that are diagnosed.
Aboard that ship the sick and the healthy breathed the same air, and ate from the same kitchen, What should we expect?

Well, it seemed split among passengers; at least as presented in media.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-02-13/fear-boredom-adventure-fill-each-day-on-quarantined-ship
Life on a quarantined cruise ship: fear, boredom, occasional fun

Even during the quarantine, it can seem like Cheryl and Paul Molesky are still on vacation.

The couple from Syracuse, N.Y., can be seen in their YouTube videos lounging, often in plush bathrobes, on their balcony, enjoying the sweeping views of a glittering, sun-streaked ocean and, on occasion, snow-capped Mt. Fuji.

“We try to have an upbeat presentation and make sure that our attitude comes across that, we’re not hurt, we’re not in pain ... we’re actually just enjoying ourselves,” Paul Molesky, a 78-year-old potter, said in an interview. “It’s been very nice.”

There was the time a man came to the docks in a Spider-Man costume and played music for an hour and a half to the delight of the passengers
...
“Now that we’re here in quarantine we’re getting so much attention. We never get that much attention at home,” said 59-year-old Cheryl, a retired art and media teacher.
...
“We are scared. We appeal to the Indian government and the United Nations to help us, segregate us urgently,” a man identified as crew member Binay Kumar Sarkar says after removing his mask. “We should be rescued immediately and reunited with our families before it is too late.”




Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #259 on: February 21, 2020, 12:02:38 PM »
NPR, 2/21/20: Restrictions And Rewards: How China Is Locking Down Half A Billion Citizens

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China has put more than half a billion people under partial or total lockdown in what it is calling an all-out "people's war" against the spread of the new coronavirus. It's equivalent to restricting the movement of the entire population of North America. ...

Lockdown measures have been most severe in Hubei province, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak with nearly three-fourths of the 75,000-plus confirmed cases (as of Thursday) in China. ...

On Sunday, the Hubei government ordered community officials to began enforcing "the strictest, around-the-clock, closed management" of all residential complexes, banning the private use of cars, forbidding residents from leaving their apartments without permission and requiring purchasers of cold medicine to disclose their temperature, address and identification number at the pharmacy. To further cut down on people's needs to leave their houses, many community officials are now buying and delivering groceries and medication for the residents in their jurisdiction.

The majority of China, which faces a lower density of coronavirus cases, has far less extreme controls.

Many cities have utilized a monitoring scheme in which large neighborhoods are broken down into smaller gridlike units responsible for enforcing regulations. The method traces back to the way social order was maintained in Imperial China.

Community officials — a mix of paid employees and volunteers, mostly retirees — tightly monitor activity such as going out or visiting other residential complexes. They can call the local police for backup if anyone refuses to cooperate with temperature checks or quarantine orders.

These officials, known as grid workers, are supposed to screen each person's temperature as they enter the complex — echoing the rules in Wuhan — and note whether they've recently left the city. ...

In addition to enlisting grid workers, local officials are rewarding anyone who reports neighbors and friends for attending social gatherings or refusing to quarantine themselves after traveling. A person who disobeys these rules may be subjected to detention and fines for disrupting social order, a charge punishable under China's administrative law. ...

Offline Carver

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #260 on: February 21, 2020, 02:46:37 PM »
We had civil defense block wardens when I was a kid, maybe those will be revived.
How could the U.S. be locked down?
Every major city is surrounded by an interstate belt. Many of the exit and entry ramps have arm blockades, which if activated could lock down a city.


Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #261 on: February 21, 2020, 09:01:01 PM »
Ugh.  Why would they think it was ok to put those testing positive on the same plane as the uninfected?  Makes no sense.  I understand evacuating them but it should have been on separate plane flight regardless of isolation unit.  It is risky decisions like this which destroys public confidence.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/484157-trump-furious-after-officials-allowed-americans-with-coronavirus-to
Trump furious after officials allowed Americans with coronavirus to fly home with other passengers: report

Trump and his coronavirus task force were told last weekend that Americans who had been in quarantine on the Diamond Princess cruise liner, where the virus had spread, would be brought home, but that those who had symptoms would remain in Japan
...
Administration officials told The Washington Post that Trump learned of the reversal after the fact and was furious that he was not first consulted, reportedly fearing the move could affect the government's handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

The 14 Americans who tested positive for the coronavirus were also reportedly returned home despite objections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC.)
...
The plane did have a plastic-lined enclosure that allowed the 14 people with the virus to be separated from the others, the State Department and HHS said.

"These individuals were moved in the most expeditious and safe manner to a specialized containment area on the evacuation aircraft to isolate them in accordance with standard protocols," the departments said a statement.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #262 on: February 21, 2020, 11:46:12 PM »
Administration officials told The Washington Post that Trump learned of the reversal after the fact and was furious that he was not first consulted, reportedly fearing the move could affect the government's handling of the coronavirus outbreak.


WaPo:  Trump was not told coronavirus-infected Americans would be flown home from cruise ship

Quote
Trump was briefed on the decision and agreed that healthy passengers should not be on the plane with sick ones, three senior administration officials said. But the State Department and a top U.S. health official ultimately decided to bring back the 14 Americans who tested positive for the virus on the planes and place them in isolation — without informing the president first.

Quote
During the 2014 Ebola outbreak, Trump, then a private citizen, called for the United States to shut its borders and said American doctors who had become infected with the disease while treating patients should not be allowed back into the country for treatment.

“The U.S. must immediately stop all flights from EBOLA infected countries or the plague will start and spread inside our ‘borders.’ Act fast!” Trump wrote.

Yet Trump also remains concerned that any large-scale outbreak in the United States could hurt his 2020 presidential reelection bid. He has also been unwilling to criticize China’s response to the outbreak despite some of his advisers pushing for a tougher stance, and has worried that any further drastic action by his administration could further spook the markets and hurt the economy in an election year.

Administration officials are concerned that they might not be able to quarantine large numbers of people in the United States if a pandemic breaks out. There have been at least 10 meetings on quarantines in the past two weeks, administration officials said.

Quote
One of the officials arguing they should all be flown home together was Robert Kadlec, assistant secretary for preparedness and response for the Department of Health and Human Services and a member of the task force.
Wikipedia:  Robert P. Kadlec is an American physician and career officer in the United States Air Force who currently serves as Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services (Preparedness and Response).

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #263 on: February 22, 2020, 08:52:47 AM »
WaPo:  Coronavirus outbreak edges closer to pandemic

Quote
There are outbreaks. There are epidemics. And there are pandemics, where epidemics become rampant in multiple countries and continents simultaneously. The novel coronavirus that causes the disease named covid-19 appears to be on the verge of that third, globe-shaking stage.

Quote
If the coronavirus becomes a true pandemic, a large proportion of the human population — a third, a half, two-thirds even — could become infected, although that doesn’t necessarily mean they will get sick. The word ‘pandemic’ invokes fear, but it describes how widespread an outbreak may be, not its deadliness.

“If we went across the whole world and had a magic ball and were able to detect everyone who’s positive, we’d see it in lots of countries,” said Michael Mina, an infectious disease specialist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “It’s never clear until it’s happening."

“I think we should assume that this virus is very soon going to be spreading in communities here, if it isn’t already, and despite aggressive actions, we should be putting more efforts to mitigate impacts,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist and senior scholar the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “That means protecting people who are most likely to develop severe illness and die.”

Quote
The virus would be easier to contain if people who are contagious were obviously so, as was the case with SARS, which started an outbreak that burned itself out in 2003. But the new virus appears to spread among people who in some cases are not noticeably sick. In fact, most cases of covid-19 have been mild. Taxi drivers and people at business meetings have spread the illness, and among the more than 600 passengers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship who have tested positive, about half had no obvious symptoms.

Quote
“What we find is that this virus is going to be very difficult to contain,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease researcher at Columbia University and co-author of the study posted Monday. “Personally, I don’t think we can do it.”

Quote
The novel coronavirus may be particularly suited for stealth community transmission since its symptoms can be indistinguishable from those of a cold or flu, and testing capabilities are still being ramped up.

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The virus has already infected people in every province in China and is now spreading in communities in Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong and Japan, according to Nancy Messonnier, a top Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official.

“I want to be clear that we are not seeing community spread here in the United States yet,” she said Friday. “But it’s very possible, even likely, that may eventually happen.”

Quote
Public health experts are devising strategies on how to conserve N95 respirators, specialized masks that are in a limited supply amid surging demand. They’re even thinking about seemingly small details, like how to make sure patients don’t spark new infections when they use a touch screen to check in, or pump sanitizer onto their hands.

“We have to be ready,” said Paul Biddinger, chief of the division of emergency preparedness for Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston. “Extrapolating from some of the numbers we’ve seen on the impact to the health care system in China, it means we’ll have to surge fast.”


Hopefully we get a vaccine sooner than later.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #264 on: February 22, 2020, 10:25:42 AM »
WSJ:  How One Singapore Sales Conference Spread Coronavirus Around the World

Quote
Last month, 109 people gathered in a Singapore hotel for an international sales conference held by a U.K.-based company that makes products to analyze gas.

When the attendees flew home, some unwittingly took the coronavirus with them.

The virus had a 10-day head start on health authorities who, after belatedly learning a 41-year-old Malaysian participant was infected, began a desperate effort to track the infection through countries including South Korea, England and France. Health investigators have found at least 20 people in six Asian and European countries who were sickened, some who attended the conference and others who came in contact with participants.

A globalized economy, one that’s far more integrated than in the early 2000s when the SARS virus broke out, is complicating the task of responding to epidemics.

Quote
Singapore, whose health authorities have confirmed 86 cases there, has deployed dozens of contact tracers and data analysts to hunt down every bit of information. The work begins in hospitals where specialists are interviewing sickened people to map their whereabouts for the days before they were isolated and might have infected others, seeking details such as whom they ate with and met, which shoe shop they visited, how many salespeople shook their hands.


If a wealthy, authoritarian city-state like Singapore is struggling to track cases from a small sales conference their dirt-poor neighbors don't stand a chance.  With the increasing evidence of asymptomatic and mild cases transmitting the infection, the actual number of infections could be in the millions by now in Asia. 

We might still be able to keep it out of North America but probably not without serious economic consequences.  The barn door had been open for too long by the time China let the rest of us know. 

Offline Knecht

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #265 on: February 22, 2020, 12:46:32 PM »
Good news, everyone
A local Czech company has developed a facemask with copper-oxide based nanofibers, that supposedly protects the wearer from Coronavirus (unlike common masks that rather stop the infected person from spreading the disease, but don't help a heathy one). Full production should start here in CZ by May. Masks will also be made in Israel and in Asia, presumably right in China.
I'll try to keep you informed. Since I'm relatively close to the city where maks will be made, I guess I'll try to get some ASAP.

Offline David in MN

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #266 on: February 22, 2020, 02:11:31 PM »
Lebanon has its first case and its stirring ire with Iran who they blame for not containing well.

The Chinese have some real egg on their face here. Clearly their initial reporting was completely bogus. American officials are already speaking of the risk of doing business in China where every 5 years you must deal with a potential global pandemic.

Even if this burns out the global tensions will leave some massive fallout.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #267 on: February 22, 2020, 03:33:54 PM »
WaPo:  New developments suggest coronavirus incubation could be longer than 14 days, as global infections rise

Quote
There are some indications that the incubation period for the coronavirus could be longer than 14 days, with patients testing positive after much longer quarantine periods, researchers said. The rush to understand the virus came as infections rose in South Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy. The head of the World Health Organization warned that the window for stopping the epidemic was narrowing. Here’s what we know:

●Chinese leader Xi Jinping has been advised that the situation in Wuhan “remains grim and complex.” Amid an alarming surge in cases with no clear link to China, infectious disease experts say they believe the flulike illness may soon be a pandemic and impossible to contain.

●South Korea and Japan both reported a sharp spike in cases, with the number of cases in South Korea doubling in a day to at least 430. A sixth person died in Iran from the virus, while Italy now has at least 58 confirmed cases, making it the largest hot spot in Europe.

Nine South Korean tourists who recently toured Israel and the occupied West Bank tested positive for coronavirus Saturday. Israeli and Palestinian authorities are urging anyone who may have come in contact with them to report and self-isolate.

●China reported only 397 new cases Saturday, as the rate of increase continued to decline, but an additional 109 people have died. There continues to be a great deal of skepticism about China’s numbers as the criteria for diagnosing coronavirus keep changing.

●A federal judge granted a request from the city of Costa Mesa, Calif., on Friday to temporarily block the transfer of up to 50 quarantined coronavirus patients to a complex the city said was not suited to house patients with the disease.

●Scientists in China said they had isolated coronavirus strains in urine, raising the possibility that it might be transmissible that way, as well as through fecal matter and respiratory droplets.

Quote
The potential for a longer incubation period was linked to a patient in China’s Hubei Province, where the virus was first detected in December. A 70-year-old man was infected with coronavirus, but did not show symptoms until 27 days later, the local government reported.


First it was just snot.  Then maybe shit.  And now piss.  Oh, and by the way, maybe we should be doubling the quarantine time to 28 days before we clear suspected exposures.


We're not going to reach a nice tidy endpoint like SARS or Ebola with this one, because COVID doesn't behave in similarly definitive fashion, its indolence allows smoldering cases to shed virus far and wide before anybody's the wiser.


It's looking like the pandemic is on. 


Even with a case fatality rate similar to flu, we can easily exceed the existing medical system's capacity to evaluate and treat the severe cases here in the highly developed countries. 

Get the flu shot now, and pneumococcus if you're elderly or have chronic health conditions.  Anything to minimize contracting a serious respiratory infection that risks a hospital visit, which will lump you in with the increasing number of novel COVID suspects, because who knows what kind of isolation the powers that be will have decided those poor souls must be subjected to by then. 

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #268 on: February 22, 2020, 07:45:05 PM »
A local Czech company has developed a facemask with copper-oxide based nanofibers, that supposedly protects the wearer from Coronavirus (unlike common masks that rather stop the infected person from spreading the disease, but don't help a heathy one).

Looks like there's some science behind this.  From 10 years ago:

A Novel Anti-Influenza Copper Oxide Containing Respiratory Face Mask

Not a cure-all but maybe an improvement on regular masks:

Quote
...We demonstrate that impregnation of copper oxide into respiratory protective face masks endows them with potent biocidal properties in addition to their inherent filtration properties. Both control and copper oxide impregnated masks filtered above 99.85% of aerosolized viruses when challenged with ... human influenza A virus (H1N1) and avian influenza virus (H9N2), respectively, under simulated breathing conditions...

But, the copper oxide appears to destroy about 80% of the virus in the mask, compared with the control.

Quote
...The use of biocidal masks may significantly reduce the risk of hand or environmental contamination, and thereby subsequent infection, due to improper handling and disposal of the masks. ...

So the main goal here is to make the used masks less infectious when they are removed.  There's a possible side-benefit of improving protection for users who wear masks for long periods.

80% isn't perfect but it might be worth the added expense.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #269 on: February 23, 2020, 07:32:58 AM »

WaPo:  Trump was not told coronavirus-infected Americans would be flown home from cruise ship
Wikipedia:  Robert P. Kadlec is an American physician and career officer in the United States Air Force who currently serves as Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services (Preparedness and Response).

Not a great call.  The psychological impact alone should have precluded this.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/flying-coronavirus-class-photos-of-americans-flight-from-hell/amp/
Flying coronavirus class: Photos of American Diamond Princess passengers’ flight from hell

It was a long-awaited escape for the passengers, who had been quarantined in their cabins since the ship docked off Japan on Feb. 3, with 3,700 people on board.

The Americans were finally off-loaded from the ship on Sunday — but their ordeal was far from over.

The CDC delivered the bad news — that 14 people among them had just tested positive for the virus —  as the passengers rode the bus to the airport in Tokyo.

The State Department’s decision to allow the infected, but asymptomatic, passengers to fly back to the US — rather than to stay in quarantine in Japan — was highly controversial.

The 14 were allowed on the two flights even though the CDC was reportedly adamant that they not come to the US.