Author Topic: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China  (Read 27772 times)

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #660 on: March 25, 2020, 03:21:11 PM »
I'm hearing from people wanting to donate masks in their storage for use by their local medical systems.  Good on all of you that are doing that!

Today I received this letter from my professional society outlining the various masks, respirators, and supplied air systems commonly used in non-medical industry that meet or exceed the N95 standard.  This is obviously geared toward large corporations that could be sitting on stockpiles of PPE that could be donated, but there's lots of us out there who stock similar items for use in our home shops.

AIHA/ACOEM Joint Letter on Donation of Surplus Masks and Respirators for Health Care Workers

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WHAT IS NEEDED
In the news, the N95 mask seems to be all that is talked about; however, there are several others that can save lives during this crisis: P95, N99, N100, P95, P99, or P100.
 
To combat the current shortage, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is now allowing the use of industrial-style filtering facepiece respirators. Many facilities have stock of N-95 and P-95 respirators that are distributed as voluntary comfort masks. Facilities prepared to meet requirements of the OSHA Silica Standard may have extra industrial style respirators. These masks will provide a life-saving barrier from COVID-19 for the workers battling this deadly pandemic.
 
On March 14, 2020, OSHA issued a directive that provides guidance on expanding the supply available to health care providers: "respirators of equal or higher protection, such as N99 or N100 filtering facepieces, reusable elastomeric respirators with appropriate filters or cartridges, or powered air purifying respirators (PAPR)" should be donated. (https://www.osha.gov/memos/2020-03-14/temporary-enforcement-guidance-healthcare-respiratory-protection-annual-fit) Also, respirators marked P95, P99 and P100 meet this standard of protection ("P" simply means they are oil proof).  https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/topics/respirators/disp_part/p99list1.html

Offline David in MN

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #661 on: March 25, 2020, 04:19:52 PM »
At long last the math people showed up. Oxford University has a statistical model whereby half of all Britons have already had COVID-19. Yeah, you're likely one of the many who had a low symptom cold and after a week on the couch got back on your feet.

https://reason.com/2020/03/25/half-of-united-kingdom-already-infected-with-coronavirus-says-oxford-model/

The modeling is telling in that the morbidity has been way overstated and the widespread infection has been way understated. I'm not telling you to run out and kiss a stranger like it's 1945 but maybe we can pump the brakes and live more normal lives. A lot of unknowns are being unearthed.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #662 on: March 25, 2020, 04:26:43 PM »
At long last the math people showed up. Oxford University has a statistical model whereby half of all Britons have already had COVID-19. Yeah, you're likely one of the many who had a low symptom cold and after a week on the couch got back on your feet.

https://reason.com/2020/03/25/half-of-united-kingdom-already-infected-with-coronavirus-says-oxford-model/

The modeling is telling in that the morbidity has been way overstated and the widespread infection has been way understated. I'm not telling you to run out and kiss a stranger like it's 1945 but maybe we can pump the brakes and live more normal lives. A lot of unknowns are being unearthed.


But without widespread antibody testing to confirm prior infection with, and current immunity from, COVID-19 it changes nothing in terms of the need for social distancing.  Unfortunately.


Offline David in MN

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #663 on: March 25, 2020, 04:54:08 PM »

But without widespread antibody testing to confirm prior infection with, and current immunity from, COVID-19 it changes nothing in terms of the need for social distancing.  Unfortunately.

No, but the modeling is a least a bright spot. It's kind of been my gut feel for a while and as we roll out with testing and realize that maybe a lot of us had this in December (as I suspect I did) the death rate will fall off and people will get back to normalcy.


I don't want to be too wrong on either side but hearing the statisticians weigh in that we've overblown the risk is a remarkably good thing. It's a difficult game as the medical world is overwhelmed but the data people can offer a more nuanced view.

We're all trying to figure out what makes sense and some modeling that tells us we're doing far better than we thought doesn't suck. I'm on team people.

Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #664 on: March 25, 2020, 05:13:43 PM »
No, but the modeling is a least a bright spot. It's kind of been my gut feel for a while and as we roll out with testing and realize that maybe a lot of us had this in December (as I suspect I did) the death rate will fall off and people will get back to normalcy.


based on symptoms, plus a mild relapse after a week of "feeling well", I think my kids had it in mid february.  Just saying

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #665 on: March 25, 2020, 06:15:27 PM »
Of course it varies over time and by location and conditions.  In the US, the earliest cases showed a 1.7 day doubling rate.  This is because a lot were from infected people entering the country in addition to local transmission and this convolution distorted the rate.  This has dropped over time and latest data shows a 2.9 day doubling rate.  Right now, most experts expect it to quickly (within about a week) slow to a 5+ day doubling rate based on actions taken.  The worst case scenarios are reportedly now being calculated using 4 day.  The media is still pushing for as aggressive numbers as possible...gotta feed those click monster.

Washington is now at a six and a half day doubling rate.  New York is breaking 4.  Politicians are starting to take notice and beginning to back off the "we're all going to die" rhetoric and having more realistic discussions.

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/25/new-york-andrew-cuomo-coronavirus-cases
New York: Cuomo says early signs show coronavirus distancing may be working

New York’s governor, Andrew Cuomo, has said officials are seeing very early signs that physical distancing may be starting to slow the spread of coronavirus in his state
...
 hospitalizations were projected to double every 4.7 days on Tuesday, compared with Monday, when the number was doubling every 3.4 days, and Sunday, when the figure was every two days.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #666 on: March 25, 2020, 06:22:42 PM »
based on symptoms, plus a mild relapse after a week of "feeling well", I think my kids had it in mid february.  Just saying

Hard to say.  But we have tested 421 thousand people showing symptoms and 357 thousand of those were negative.  This suggests that it is only a small portion of population infected.  So much more likely to be tge 2nd wave of seasonal influenza which was so mild for some they thought it was just a mild cold.

Offline IKN

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #667 on: March 25, 2020, 06:42:22 PM »
if your father, mother, child, yourself needed one, is 4,000 ventilators really too much to ask for? is 10,000? 20,000. will you be pleading, screaming, bribing for your loved one if they need one and there is not one available?

do you want to choose which of the 12,000 people don't get one? do you want to choose which of the 4,000 that do?

No one wants to make that decision, but at some point a doctor or medical worker may have to. It's happening in other countries and can happen here as well.
At some point logistics comes into play. Even if they could get a million ventilators, I doubt they have the space to put them or the people to operate and monitor them.
In some cases, it eventually doesn't matter as people on ventilators have died.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #668 on: March 25, 2020, 07:14:39 PM »
No one wants to make that decision, but at some point a doctor or medical worker may have to. It's happening in other countries and can happen here as well.
At some point logistics comes into play. Even if they could get a million ventilators, I doubt they have the space to put them or the people to operate and monitor them.
In some cases, it eventually doesn't matter as people on ventilators have died.

Good points.  New York currently has ~2,800 coronavirus patients in hospitals with only about 500 on ventilators.  And the rate in additional cases is dropping quickly.    They have so many ventilators they are having to stockpile them as the hospitals dont want to take them.   And, of course, it is possible to put two and even four patients on one ventilator should worse case scenario happen.

The craziest thing is Elon Musk just picked up his phone and ordered 1,250 of them for immediate delivery. He just donated them to any hospital who needs them. The bureaucrats werent even trying to locate let alone acquire them.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 07:25:46 PM by iam4liberty »

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #669 on: March 25, 2020, 09:01:07 PM »


With the same number of new cases as we had today, the US will have more cases than China by tomorrow.  Hard to tell if Italy will get there ahead of us, but we'll definitely be #1 by the weekend.

Notice that the US has 3 deaths per million population, compared to S. Korea and China's 2 per mil.

Spain looks like it's on Italy's trajectory.  Unfortunately, we're going to wind up closer to those two countries than we will to China.




Louisiana is really blowing up, with as many deaths as California and only 60% as many cases.  Mardi Gras' paying some big fat dividends.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #670 on: March 25, 2020, 09:12:12 PM »
Masks are coming

Quote
Apple CEO Tim Cook announced that the company has sourced and will be donating 10 million face masks. The number is a sizable increase over the two million reported last week, and a hefty bump over the nine million figure Vice President Mike Pence announced during last night’s White House press conference.

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Apple is joining fellow tech companies in donating masks amid a national shortage as COVID-19 takes an increasing toll on the U.S. population. Many of the donated masks have been stockpiled, in order to adhere to California Occupational Safety and Health Standards put into action following last year’s devastating wildfires.

Other companies, like Ford, have transformed production facilities to create additional masks.

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/25/apple-will-donate-10m-face-masks-to-healthcare-workers/

comment from where I got the link, so no source but I trust it


Quote
I'm trying to figure this out as well.. here's what I've gathered so far...

- Some came from the california wildfire stockpiles
- Some came from the H1N1 stockpiles that George W Bush established (and Obama basically canceled)... I THINK Apple bought these up to use in their manufacturing clean rooms.. But I'm not certain...
- A few are being sourced from small suppliers in europe
- Some are being manufactured by places that Apple normally uses to make electronics -- they are re-tooling their assembly lines to make masks instead of electronics.

Apple, apparently, is footing the bill for all of the above.. though it's not clear to me why california wildfire stockpiles wouldn't ALREADY be in the hands of hospitals. I'm still digging.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #671 on: March 25, 2020, 09:27:22 PM »
demographics in my area so far ( California, greater San Francisco Bay area).  Note that it is not all old people  -

Twenty-five people have tested positive for COVID-19 in -- County as of Wednesday morning. No deaths have been reported.

The demographics of those who have tested positive are as follows:

    Male: 14
    Female: 11
    Age 18-64: 21
    Age 65+ 4

we had our first reported case March 6 or 7th, a cruise ship passenger
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 09:37:03 PM by mountainmoma »

Offline Prepper456

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #672 on: March 25, 2020, 09:33:06 PM »
Good points.  New York currently has ~2,800 coronavirus patients in hospitals with only about 500 on ventilators.  And the rate in additional cases is dropping quickly.    They have so many ventilators they are having to stockpile them as the hospitals dont want to take them.   And, of course, it is possible to put two and even four patients on one ventilator should worse case scenario happen.

where did you get your numbers?

there was an increase over yesterday in detected coronavirus cases. hopefully, grouping things by region helps even out disparities in testing rates.

South: +32%
Northeast (excluding NY): +30%
Midwest: +27%
West (excluding CA & WA): +23%
New York: +20%
California: +20%
Washington: +11%

doctors are gingerly testing to put more than patient on a machine, which is dangerous
https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-ventilator-shortage-may-force-sharing-but-its-risky-2020-3

what hospitals are declining ventilator machines?

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #673 on: March 25, 2020, 09:45:51 PM »
The donations, big and small, are rolling in from everywhere.  The Washington National Cathedral found 5.000 respirators in a crypt that were never used from bird flu epidemic and donated them to hospitals.  Tesla sent 50,000 from their stock to seattle doctors,  3M just shipped another half a million to New York and is producing over a million per day in US now.  Quilters, taylors, etc. have produced so many procedure masks that they have been asking them to stop producing.

With three hospitals under construction in New York, it is all about lining up volunteer medical staff.  The restrictions barring cross state practice have been lifted so vokunteers can come from all over. 

Never count out the US private sector!

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #674 on: March 25, 2020, 10:21:41 PM »
where did you get your numbers?

there was an increase over yesterday in detected coronavirus cases. hopefully, grouping things by region helps even out disparities in testing rates.

South: +32%
Northeast (excluding NY): +30%
Midwest: +27%
West (excluding CA & WA): +23%
New York: +20%
California: +20%
Washington: +11%

doctors are gingerly testing to put more than patient on a machine, which is dangerous
https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-ventilator-shortage-may-force-sharing-but-its-risky-2020-3

what hospitals are declining ventilator machines?

If you want to figure out doubling rates, you can use natural logs.  Just take ln(2)/ln(1+% increase per day). For example, for washington using your figure it would be ln(2)/ln(1.11) = 6.64 days.  But the official number based on 4 ET report is actually 6.55... ln(2)/ln(2469/2221) = 6.55. 

The governor of New York reported on ventilators in his press conference today along with the number of current patients. He said they have 4,000 normally in hospitals, are receiving 4,000 from feds, and got 7,000 through normal channels.  The new 11,000 hasnt been deployed as no hospital is currently requested them.  Instead they are being put in a state stockpile.  Some doctors are trialing the split which has been proven by others.  So their worst case scenario of needing 30k is covered (4k+4k+7k)*2= 30k.  But again, they currently only have 500 people who need them.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #675 on: March 26, 2020, 07:03:21 AM »
Kinsa Health Weather Map showing promising decline in fevers across US.

https://healthweather.us/


Offline IKN

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #676 on: March 26, 2020, 07:16:29 AM »
Have a couple questions, although the second being kind of an observation as well.

1. My wife got a Facebook report about some young girl here that has symptoms, but was told the test wasn't covered under the State aide program and it would cost $1500 to have her tested. Anyone else hear of anything like that ?

2. Every day I hear about all the new confirmed cases and deaths, but I see nothing being put out about recovery rates. Any sources of info out there putting out all the statistics ?

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #677 on: March 26, 2020, 08:52:49 AM »
Worldometers.info, the source of the tables I screenshot and posted above, is tracking recovery numbers.

You can also calculate it:

Recovered Cases = Total Cases - Total Deaths - Active Cases
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 09:28:11 AM by FreeLancer »

Offline fritz_monroe

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #678 on: March 26, 2020, 09:29:49 AM »
Here's another tracking website that uses Bing for the tracking.

https://www.bing.com/covid

Looks like we are on track to drastically fly by China in number of confirmed cases.  Of course there is better testing now than when it started in China, but still...

Offline Prepper456

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #679 on: March 26, 2020, 09:51:02 AM »
spains fatality rate is now 10.1%
italys fatality rate is now 7.2%
usa 1.4%

worldwide fatality rate is now 4.4%

not even 24 hrs later
italys fatality rate is now 10%
usa 1.5%

worldwide fatality rate is almost 4.5%

Offline LvsChant

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #680 on: March 26, 2020, 10:19:06 AM »
Here's another tracking website that uses Bing for the tracking.

https://www.bing.com/covid

Looks like we are on track to drastically fly by China in number of confirmed cases.  Of course there is better testing now than when it started in China, but still...

Maybe... although I'm not sure I trust China's reported numbers. At the same time we are seeing very low numbers of overall cases and deaths reported, there are apparently as many as 21 million Chinese cellphone accounts that have disappeared. I think this was reported on either peakprosperity.com or freedomain.com (can't recall which).


Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #681 on: March 26, 2020, 10:49:57 AM »
Maybe... although I'm not sure I trust China's reported numbers. At the same time we are seeing very low numbers of overall cases and deaths reported, there are apparently as many as 21 million Chinese cellphone accounts that have disappeared. I think this was reported on either peakprosperity.com or freedomain.com (can't recall which).

do not trust China.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #682 on: March 26, 2020, 12:15:44 PM »
Rule 1: China lies

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #683 on: March 26, 2020, 03:34:59 PM »
With the same number of new cases as we had today, the US will have more cases than China by tomorrow.  Hard to tell if Italy will get there ahead of us, but we'll definitely be #1 by the weekend.

We're #1. 

The US surpassed 82,000 cases and leapfrogged over both Italy and China to take the lead.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #684 on: March 26, 2020, 03:58:53 PM »
We're #1. 

The US surpassed 82,000 cases and leapfrogged over both Italy and China to take the lead.

We're number 1! We're number 1!

Though China lies.

Offline fritz_monroe

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #685 on: March 26, 2020, 04:22:25 PM »
Though China lies.
Plus they didn't test as many people as we have been. 

Offline Greekman

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #686 on: March 26, 2020, 04:25:11 PM »
Greek Outlook

Seems we are doing quite good. Diagnosed cases double every 6 days, and the curve is better than most

And of tomorrow, chloroquine will be available in mass quantities to the health system. About 2.5 pills per each person.

General Outlook

As the disease progress we are learning more about the symptoms
Loss of Smell and loss of Appetite is observed
Diminished Blood oxygenation (pulse oxymeters are practically sold out)
Seems that the virus does not only affects the lungs but also degardes the hear.


Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #687 on: March 26, 2020, 04:39:46 PM »
As the disease progress we are learning more about the symptoms
Loss of Smell and loss of Appetite is observed
Diminished Blood oxygenation (pulse oxymeters are practically sold out)
Seems that the virus does not only affects the lungs but also degardes the hear.

weird symptoms... are we sure this was not bio-engineered?

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #688 on: March 26, 2020, 05:14:24 PM »
weird symptoms... are we sure this was not bio-engineered?

MODERATOR NOTE: To keep the focus of this thread on current news, let's put discussions of the virus origin in the existing topic:
Virus accidentally released from lab ?

Offline Greekman

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #689 on: March 26, 2020, 05:19:00 PM »
BTW i forgot to add that
- the word is that the virus attaches on receptors that the older you are, the more you have.
- heard from a prominent scientist that the virus creates a loss of sense that your breath has become short/diminished.
- degradation of the heart may cause doctors to mistake the virus symptoms with heart defect symptoms (thought by now the word must be out the both situations may be linked)