Author Topic: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China  (Read 43474 times)

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #720 on: March 28, 2020, 11:15:34 AM »
An ICU nurse in the Denver metro of my acquaintance (and much closer to a former forum member) is saying that more ventilator COVID patients are living than dying nation wide according to brutally honest information sharing channels among emergency medical providers.  Her ICU has not had any ventilator patients die yet.  Other metrics of their status are not bad at all for ICU patients, they just need the vent to stay alive.  The issue is some of the patients will recover just fine but need weeks on the ventilator.

Offline LvsChant

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #721 on: March 28, 2020, 01:51:05 PM »
An ICU nurse in the Denver metro of my acquaintance (and much closer to a former forum member) is saying that more ventilator COVID patients are living than dying nation wide according to brutally honest information sharing channels among emergency medical providers.  Her ICU has not had any ventilator patients die yet.  Other metrics of their status are not bad at all for ICU patients, they just need the vent to stay alive.  The issue is some of the patients will recover just fine but need weeks on the ventilator.

Good information... so obviously, even if the ventilators will save lives, it will takes weeks of intensive care for each one.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #722 on: March 28, 2020, 02:00:35 PM »
Everything I have seen puts the rate of someone with Covid-19 being removed alive from ventilator intubation at less  than 20% (and those removed don't necessarily survive).   I would love to hear some positive news otherwise.

Severe COVID-19 cases develop Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), which is a condition critical care specialists have considerable experience treating with mechanical ventilation in an ICU setting.  ARDS in general has a fatality rate of 30-40%.   COVID-19 appears to cause a respiratory failure that is at the severe side of the ARDS spectrum and Chinese data (not my first choice of trustworthy information these days) shows about a 50% survival rate. 

Since COVID patients are requiring 2-3+ weeks of ventilation we don't have a lot of US data yet but I would expect that it will show the overall odds of patient survival to be better than 50%.

However, this is going to be very much age dependent and whether COVID causes other organ failures that requires treatment.  A 40-something patient with only ARDS could survive >80% of the time, but a 70-something with hepatorenal failure on top of the ARDS might be <10%.



This is where NY's color-coding system for rationing ventilators comes into play.  Every day the clinical team reports the objective data on all the patient's needing a ventilator to the triage team.  Based on the severity and multitude of organ failure, the patient's chances of getting (or keeping) a ventilator rises and falls against every other patient. 

The sicker you are, or the longer you go without making progress, the less likely you are to stay on the vent.  A lot of these patients who are not making progress will be extubated so their vent can be used by a patient with better numbers.  At that point they get moved out of the ICU and placed on sufficient morphine and Ativan to reduce their air hunger and keep them comfortable until they either get better or die. 


Obviously, in a pandemic situation where resources are stretched to the limit the survival rates deteriorate, so areas of the country most impacted by this disease will have the more dismal numbers.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #723 on: March 28, 2020, 04:04:09 PM »
NYT:  ‘War Zone’: Ambulances in N.Y.C. Are Now as Busy as on Sept. 11

Quote
“I’m terrified,” said Mr. Suarez, who has been a paramedic in New York City for 26 years and had assisted in rescue efforts during the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks and later served in the Iraq war. “I honestly don’t know if I’m going to survive. I’m terrified of what I’ve already possibly brought home.”

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Because of the volume, emergency medical workers are making life-or-death decisions about who is sick enough to take to crowded emergency rooms and who appears well enough to leave behind. They are assessing on scene which patients should receive time-consuming measures like CPR and intubation, and which patients are too far gone to save.

Quote
If the rate of growth in cases in the New York area continues, it will suffer a more severe outbreak than those experienced in Wuhan, China, or the Lombardy region of Italy.

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Three weeks ago, the paramedics said, most coronavirus calls were for respiratory distress or fever. Now the same types of patients, after having been sent home from the hospital, are experiencing organ failure and cardiac arrest.

“We’re getting them at the point where they’re starting to decompensate,” said the Brooklyn paramedic, who is employed by the Fire Department. “The way that it wreaks havoc in the body is almost flying in the face of everything that we know.”

Quote
Another paramedic in Brooklyn said she had been using the same N95 mask for days. Last week, as she and her partner exited an apartment building after tending to a patient, the building’s supervisor — noticing the pair’s worn equipment — met them downstairs and shoved new N95 masks and a can of Lysol into their arms.

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The growing pandemic has tested paramedics physically and mentally, said Anthony Almojera, an E.M.S. lieutenant for the Fire Department who said he cried on the job for the first time in his 17-year career.

He and his team had responded to a cardiac arrest dispatch for a middle-age woman, a health care worker, who had been infected. When paramedics arrived at her home, the woman’s husband, who was also a health care worker, said she had been sick for five days.

The husband frantically explained that he had tried to stay home and tend to his ill wife, but his employer had asked him to work because their facility was overrun with coronavirus patients.

Grudgingly, the man told the medics, he went to work. When he returned home after his shift that day, he found her unconscious in their bed. For 35 minutes, Mr. Almojera’s team tried to revive the woman, but she could not be saved.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #724 on: March 28, 2020, 04:12:28 PM »
Well, I do hope we have better success than in China where the experience was over 80% mortality.  The anti-virals have anecdotally been making a world of difference.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30110-7/fulltext
Respiratory support for patients with COVID-19 infection

As of Feb 27, 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected 47 countries and territories around the world.1 Xiaobo Yang and colleagues2 described 52 of 710 patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) in Wuhan, China. 29 (56%) of 52 patients were given non-invasive ventilation at ICU admission, of whom 22 (76%) required further orotracheal intubation and invasive mechanical ventilation. The ICU mortality rate among those who required non-invasive ventilation was 23 (79%) of 29 and among those who required invasive mechanical ventilation was 19 (86%) of 22

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #725 on: March 28, 2020, 04:14:14 PM »
https://news.yahoo.com/8-strains-coronavirus-circling-globe-182338255.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=fb

The use of gene sequencing to trace the virus.  As it reproduces there are very small mutations occuring that let them figure out if a particular COVID case was community transmission from another known case in the area, or a strain that is common in a different area.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #726 on: March 28, 2020, 04:28:17 PM »
USNS Comfort has put to sea enroute to NYC.  She is anticipated to arrive on Monday.  I am tracking that is 12 days from notification.  Initially she wasn't expected to even sail for 14 days from notification.  Well done Navy!  There are probably some exhausted yard dogs at Naval Station Norfolk.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/489998-trump-sees-usns-comfort-off-as-it-departs-for-new-york

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #727 on: March 28, 2020, 06:21:27 PM »

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #728 on: March 28, 2020, 07:10:45 PM »


must not tell the whole story as the New York area is hit so hard, they are blue on that map, how many beds per patient must be hard on them ?

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #729 on: March 28, 2020, 07:26:51 PM »
It’s relative.

High density populations deemed predominantly healthy still have old/sick people to clog the health system. We’ll be in the same boat out here on the left coast.

The real point of the map is highlighting how rural middle America could get slammed. If a few dozen people need a ventilator in a county with one 50 bed hospital and 4 ventilators things get ugly at the local level really quick.  And with every other hospital in the state feeling the same crunch it’s not likely you can transport enough of them to the big city to gain much slack.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #730 on: March 28, 2020, 08:36:11 PM »
https://news.yahoo.com/8-strains-coronavirus-circling-globe-182338255.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=fb

The use of gene sequencing to trace the virus.  As it reproduces there are very small mutations occuring that let them figure out if a particular COVID case was community transmission from another known case in the area, or a strain that is common in a different area.

That's a really good article, and answers a question I was wondering about.

Quote
...COVID-19 hits people differently, with some feeling only slightly under the weather for a day, others flat on their backs sick for two weeks and about 15% hospitalized. Currently, an estimated 1% of those infected die. The rate varies greatly by country and experts say it is likely tied to testing rates rather than actual mortality.

Chiu says it appears unlikely the differences are related to people being infected with different strains of the virus.

“The current virus strains are still fundamentally very similar to each other,” he said.


The COVID-19 virus does not mutate very fast. It does so eight to 10 times more slowly than the influenza virus, said Anderson, making its evolution rate similar to other coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).

It’s also not expected to spontaneously evolve into a form more deadly than it already is to humans. The SARS-CoV-2 is so good at transmitting itself between human hosts, said Andersen, it is under no evolutionary pressure to evolve. ...

Offline Greekman

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #731 on: March 29, 2020, 05:29:27 AM »
lateral thinking on patient survivability rates.

it is considered 9call that guessimating) that 5 of all patients are need of critical care.
if we have a -say- 2.4% of fatality rates then patient survivability when ventilated is about 50%

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #732 on: March 29, 2020, 05:46:00 AM »
Another recent article from Lancet:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30633-4/fulltext
Clinical course and mortality risk of severe COVID-19

They report findings from 191 patients with COVID-19 from Wuhan during the first month of the outbreak, and follow them through to discharge (n=137) or death (n=54).
   
The study also presents early data on changes in clinical and laboratory findings over time, which could help clinicians to identify patients who progress to more severe disease. In-hospital mortality was high (28%), much higher than in other reports that had incomplete follow-up data, and was very high among the 32 patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, of whom 31 (97%) died.  While the world awaits further information from other locations, including from outside China, the current message is that mortality is high among the minority of people with COVID-19 who get severe disease.
...
Although there is always the limitation of generalisability in epidemic investigations, this study adds to a rapidly growing knowledge base on the clinical course and mortality risk of COVID-19. We now have a better understanding of the severity of hospitalised COVID-19, but more data are needed on treatment options that improve survival.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 05:54:00 AM by iam4liberty »

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #733 on: March 29, 2020, 06:31:19 AM »
lateral thinking on patient survivability rates.

it is considered 9call that guessimating) that 5 of all patients are need of critical care.
if we have a -say- 2.4% of fatality rates then patient survivability when ventilated is about 50%

The general model right now is that 5% need hospitalization with 2% in ICU and 1% on ventilators.  So about half in ICU are expected to be on ventilators.  With an overall 50% survivability rate for ICU patients, this means those on ventilators (the most severe cases) are expected to have a much higher mortality rate.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-model-shows-hospitals-what-to-expect/
Coronavirus model shows individual hospitals what to expect in the coming weeks

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-model-shows-hospitals-what-to-expect/

The model then uses the best current estimates of how long someone is infectious (14 days); how many new cases each infected person causes (called the effective reproduction number, it’s about 2.5); the percentage of Covid-19 patients who need to be hospitalized (5%, reflecting the fact that most people have only mild or moderate illness); the percentage who need to be in an ICU (2%) or on a ventilator (1%); and the length of stay for each of these three.

Here is a just released article on recent UK experience:

https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/28/coronavirus-intensive-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate
Coronavirus patients in UK intensive care have 50% survival rate
Findings of new report raise concerns about how effective new facilities will be


The mortality rate for patients put in intensive care after being infected with Covid-19 is running at close to 50%, a report has revealed.

Data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) showed that of 165 patients treated in critical care in England, Wales and Northern Ireland since the end of February, 79 died, while 86 survived and were discharged.
...
“The truth is that quite a lot of these individuals [in critical care] are going to die anyway and there is a fear that we are just ventilating them for the sake of it, for the sake of doing something for them, even though it won’t be effective. That’s a worry,” one doctor said.


Again, this suggests need to concentrate efforts on treatments to prevent illness from progressing to point when ventilator is needed.  All reported evidence is that once on ventilator the likely prognosis is death.

So come on Chloroquine, we are rooting for you!
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 06:40:24 AM by iam4liberty »

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #734 on: March 29, 2020, 08:06:31 AM »
Quote from: iam4liberty
I have no problem whatsoever having people who tested posiive for coronavirus voluntarily make their anonymized and deaccuritized phone location data available so it can be placed on publicly accesible maps.  Who wouldnt want to know if they had been potentially infected?  I think the vast majority of people would opt into that to help others not get infected with what they themselve's caught.



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164301/amp/Government-tracking-Americans-cell-phones-spread-coronavirus.html
US government is tracking Americans' cell phones to see how they move and spread coronavirus during the pandemic

The federal government through Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, state and local governments have started reviewing data about the presence and movement of people from certain geographic areas using cellphone data.

Void from the data is sensitive data like cellphone user's name. The goal of the portal would be to help officials learn how COVID-19 is spreading across the United States.

It would show which destinations are still being frequented by large crowds that could help spread the coronavirus, people familiar with the matter explained.

For instance, one source shared that researchers learned that a huge number of New Yorkers had been visiting Brooklyn's Prospect Part and handed the information over to authorities.

Parks have been posted with advisory warnings but they have not been closed across the city.

The data would also potentially show how much the general public is complying with stay-at-home or shelter-in-place orders, according to experts familiar with the matter.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #735 on: March 29, 2020, 08:22:39 AM »
This is how we will beat it, effective treatments targeting the HIV insertions. We've known this since scientists first identified how the bat virus became able to infect humans. Chloroquine, leronlimab, remdesivir and other drugs shown effective against HIV are primary weapon.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/coronavirus-patients-taken-off-ventilators-after-getting-experimental-hiv-drug/amp/
Coronavirus patients taken off ventilators after getting experimental HIV drug

Two coronavirus patients in New York City are off ventilators and out of intensive care after they received an experimental drug to treat HIV and breast cancer.

As the skyrocketing number of cases stretches city hospitals to the limit, doctors are racing to find out which drugs on the market or in development might help in fighting the infection.

The drug, leronlimab, is delivered by injection twice in the abdomen, the Daily Mail reported.

Of seven critically ill patients who received the drug in New York, two were removed from ventilators and two showed significant improvement.

Offline Prepper456

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #736 on: March 29, 2020, 09:13:53 AM »
Really?  You seriously dont see this flatening trend? 

the state of washington

3/22/20
1,996 cases
203 new cases that day
95 total deaths


3/26/20
3,207 cases
619 new cases that day
147 total deaths

i dont see any decrease

3/29
4,310 cases
3,997 active cases
313 have recovered
189 deaths
 4.38% fatality rate in the state of washington

i still don't

maybe a decrease in fatality rate percentage, but we'll have to see what the trend is next week

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #737 on: March 29, 2020, 09:18:59 AM »
3/29
4,310 cases
3,997 active cases
313 have recovered
189 deaths
 4.38% fatality rate in the state of washington

i still don't

maybe a decrease in fatality rate percentage, but we'll have to see what the trend is next week

You both are likely correct.  The original outbreak was in a metro area,  so then the rate there flattens, curves down, but then a different part of washington state has its local outbreak.  I am not going to try and find out which part, but it first broke out around Seattle, there is alot more to Washington state than that,  and you would see more up changes in the curve if/when it hits tri-city area or Spokane, for example. 

Overall it seems pretty silly to only focus on total USA cases, or total state cases when it is regional realy.  So it peaks quickly in a given area, which is both devastating and hopefull

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #738 on: March 29, 2020, 12:04:20 PM »
You both are likely correct.  The original outbreak was in a metro area,  so then the rate there flattens, curves down, but then a different part of washington state has its local outbreak.  I am not going to try and find out which part, but it first broke out around Seattle, there is alot more to Washington state than that,  and you would see more up changes in the curve if/when it hits tri-city area or Spokane, for example. 

Overall it seems pretty silly to only focus on total USA cases, or total state cases when it is regional realy.  So it peaks quickly in a given area, which is both devastating and hopefull

Yes.  It is a good point to look at micro when understanding macro trends.  It is crystal clear that the cases in Washington are not doubling every ~3.5 days as earlier on.  The exponential growth trend is broken.  Clusters will pop up here and there but overall this is looking very good.



The danger of ignoring such progress is that others wont work to understand and replicate it.  One of the big defining things that Washingtonians did was drastically reduce their use of public transit. The Mayor of New York refused and now the conductors and leaders are facing serious issues:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-sickens-boss-of-nycs-subways-commuter-trains
Coronavirus sickens boss of NYC's subways, commuter trains

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-mta-employee-death-20200326-2aptlrky2rewpej33pbkeek57m-story.html
Two NYC Transit workers die of coronavirus, first MTA employees to succumb to disease

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johncumbers/2020/03/28/is-coronavirus-in-the-nyc-subway-how-swabbing-doors-and-trains-is-shaping-the-fight-against-covid-19/#13d2a612543c
Is Coronavirus In The NYC Subway? How Swabbing Doors And Trains Is Shaping The Fight Against COVID-19

Kind of silly to promote social distancing while simultaneously telling 30 people to get in a little box with each other for 45 minutes.  Best if we learn from the areas which are winning the battle and replicate that success elsewhere.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #739 on: March 29, 2020, 12:35:49 PM »
Another way to look at the data instead of doubling rate.  See interactive chart in article which is broken out by city.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/upshot/coronavirus-new-york-comparison.html
Some U.S. Cities Could Have Coronavirus Outbreaks Worse Than Wuhan’s

The chart above shows the growth rate by the number of cases in a given place. This measurement shows whether a community has succeeded in slowing the rate of growth before there are many cases. In other words, it shows whether a community is succeeding at flattening the curve.

By this measure, the situation in the New York area does not appear promising. The rate of increase in cases is far higher for the number of cases than it was in Wuhan or Lombardy, once they had reached similar numbers of cases. Other metropolitan areas, like Detroit and New Orleans, stand out as places where a coronavirus outbreak might escalate quickly without preventive measures. The Seattle and San Francisco areas, in contrast, seem to have made serious progress in flattening the curve.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #740 on: March 29, 2020, 01:04:10 PM »
Another way to look at the data instead of doubling rate.  See interactive chart in article which is broken out by city.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/upshot/coronavirus-new-york-comparison.html
Some U.S. Cities Could Have Coronavirus Outbreaks Worse Than Wuhan’s

The chart above shows the growth rate by the number of cases in a given place. This measurement shows whether a community has succeeded in slowing the rate of growth before there are many cases. In other words, it shows whether a community is succeeding at flattening the curve.

By this measure, the situation in the New York area does not appear promising. The rate of increase in cases is far higher for the number of cases than it was in Wuhan or Lombardy, once they had reached similar numbers of cases. Other metropolitan areas, like Detroit and New Orleans, stand out as places where a coronavirus outbreak might escalate quickly without preventive measures. The Seattle and San Francisco areas, in contrast, seem to have made serious progress in flattening the curve.


San Francisco is realy a very small city, I believe it may still be under 1 million people.  It has a small geographical area, water on 3 sides and another city to the south.  While it does have apartments and high rises, it has alot of housing that was built long ago and is on a more liveable scale, like single family row houses, or row houses that are duplex or triplex, one unit per floor, things like that.  The problem is that they use alot of mass transit, and that is an area that is causing spread all over. And the mass transit spreads out into the surrounding counties, all centering on the city. 

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #741 on: March 29, 2020, 03:54:28 PM »
WSJ:  Doctors With Coronavirus Frightened by Their Own Symptoms

Quote
Across the U.S., some of the sickest doctors are using their own coronavirus cases to plead for access to experimental drugs from their hospital beds. Yisachar Greenberg, a cardiac electrophysiologist at Maimonides Medical Center in Brooklyn, wrote on Twitter earlier this month that he’d received hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and zinc, but that his condition was worsening.

Quote
Some doctors with less serious, though still severe, cases say they are reluctant to take up a bed in their hospital since they can rely on their own skills.

One Central Massachusetts interventional cardiologist who tested positive for the virus earlier this month said he is managing his severe case from a mattress on the floor of his home office. To make sure his oxygen doesn’t dip dangerously low, he attached a finger monitor that his wife bought at Walgreens. At night he gets overcome with eerie febrile hallucinations where he hears a nurse call him to see a patient.  But the only patient in the room is him, said the doctor.

Quote
Dr. Malhotra said the severity of his illness scared him.

A CrossFit devotee with no underlying medical conditions, he came home from a night shift earlier this month and sensed his temperature was rising. The next night he was sweating. He sent his wife to load up on Gatorade and went to his hospital for a coronavirus test at their employee testing area, which offered a quick turnaround.

Two days later, the results came back negative.

“There’s no way I don’t have this thing,” he said to himself. “I’ve never felt this bad before.” So he went back for a second test, and that came back positive for Covid-19.

A friend who is an infectious-disease specialist offered to call in prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, two drugs that are being tested to treat the virus. Dr. Malhotra, who trained as an internal medicine physician, said no.

He didn’t want to use up drugs that could go to sicker patients, and he worried that their side effects carried their own risks.

Quote
Dr. Malhotra said he hasn’t seen his own primary-care doctor in four years and is instead leaning on his boss to monitor his symptoms—which recently have grown less severe—by text message. He took Tylenol and Motrin at least twice a day. He’s also taking electrolyte tablets that his wife consumes when she runs marathons.

“Other than turning toward my own friends and colleagues, I wouldn’t know who to turn to in this situation,” he said.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 04:18:34 PM by FreeLancer »

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #742 on: March 29, 2020, 04:15:01 PM »
I have a buddy who is clearly symptomatic with it, decreased lung function, the whole nine.  Since he is young they wouldn't give him a test due to shortage.  He is sick as a dog, isnt awake more than an hour or two between periods of sleeping.  Fever.  Has been sick for a week at this point.

Remember this though, my friend and his spouse (milder) and his oldest child (teenager, milder yet symptoms) all show signs of COVID and none of them are tested.  The numbers are much higher than we know, and while they aint dying, my buddy is sicker than he has ever been in his life.   

They are at home and receiving telemedicine advice.  The kids and the spuse (when feeling up to it) are doing food service, laundry and taking care of my buddy.  They have a finger oximeter or whatever it is to keep an eye on his pulseox and have the thresholds for when to bring him in.

If your kids dont know how to do the household chores like laundry, cleaning, and cooking now is a good time.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #743 on: March 29, 2020, 05:04:50 PM »
NPR:  Fauci Estimates That 100,000 To 200,000 Americans Could Die From The Coronavirus

Quote
Fauci's comments on CNN's State of the Union underscore just how far away the U.S. is from the peak of the outbreak based on predictions from top federal officials. As of early Sunday afternoon, there were 125,000 cases in the U.S. and nearly 2,200 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

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Fauci said the 100,000-to-200,000 death figure is a middle-of-the-road estimate, much lower than worse-case-scenario predictions.

He said preparing for 1 million to 2 million Americans to die from the coronavirus is "almost certainly off the chart," adding: "Now it's not impossible, but very, very unlikely."

However, Fauci cautioned people not to put too much emphasis on predictions, noting that "it's such a moving target that you could so easily be wrong and mislead people."

What we do know, he says, is that "we've got a serious problem in New York, we've got a serious problem in New Orleans and we're going to have serious problems in other areas."


Fauci on CNN's State of the Union:  https://youtu.be/uTTN0v2cdC0

Offline surfivor

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #744 on: March 29, 2020, 09:33:15 PM »

I’m seeing articles that China sent faulty test kits to Spain and chech republic but China also sent test kits to the US. Makes you wonder if tests could be innacurate

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #745 on: March 29, 2020, 09:41:19 PM »
I'm seeing articles that the US sent PPE to China and other countries.  Makes you wonder why our docs don't have any.

Offline Prepper456

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #746 on: March 29, 2020, 10:59:03 PM »
I’m seeing articles that China sent faulty test kits to Spain and chech republic but China also sent test kits to the US. Makes you wonder if tests could be innacurate

the only kits recieved from china were from jack ma, which arrived to the states on march 19th, which was 10 days ago. trump refused test kits from various other sources, including germany who offered them, except from the cdc, which had screwed up kits for while, and from oscar health. you ought to look into who owns oscar health.

Offline surfivor

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #747 on: March 30, 2020, 03:22:02 AM »
There’s so many unknowns such as test kits etc

If the virus is highly contagious and it’s going to stick around for years and years, then everyone is eventually going to be exposed to it. In that case all the staying indoors is just going to be a pointless thing that will make everything worse economically with little long term benefit

It’s like Lyme, most people who have had a few tick or bug bites have probably been exposed to it

It also seems questionable that China is over with it. I saw some articles. China is controlling all information and kicking out journalists. It’s doubtful much information from there is accurate

Offline Prepper456

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #748 on: March 30, 2020, 08:03:19 AM »
worldwide fatality rate is 4.73% this morning

739,385 cases
35,020 deaths
only 156,588 recovered

Offline Prepper456

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #749 on: March 30, 2020, 08:56:38 AM »
If the virus is highly contagious and it’s going to stick around for years and years, then everyone is eventually going to be exposed to it. In that case all the staying indoors is just going to be a pointless thing

not if it buys time for prevention or a cure to be found