Author Topic: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China  (Read 45278 times)

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #840 on: April 06, 2020, 01:09:42 AM »
Do you think that they shut some parts of the state, and the Country, down too soon ?  I know your area has alot of cases, but my county is barely over 50 cases, the whole place has been shut down for almost 3 weeks, so, since it has been past the incubation periods, doesnt that mean we are not going to get an overwhelming surge ? 

We can never move thru this without people catching it, we cant stay home forever.  I thought the point was to keep the hospitals from getting overwhelmed, which is a good thought.  We have seen this happen all over and need to avoid it.  But, so many places are so shut down and maybe they were wrong with the timing ? Or, maybe we were right with the timing, looking at it the other way.  But, we need to have a plan to move on also. Any ideas of how we can do this ?  And, am I wrong, that so few cases in after 3 weeks, that somehow it is going to surge while most of us are at home ?

Southern California has quite a bit of variation in deaths per million between the Counties.  Orange is 5, San Bernardino is 6, Riverside is 8, and Los Angeles is 13.

I think the biggest problem with relaxing the stay home orders is that we don't know how many asymptomatic spreaders are still out there to cause a second wave, especially in the more densely populated areas.  It's going to take a lot more testing to get where we need to be.  Unfortunately the US stumbled badly on testing at the beginning and now we're playing catch up.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #841 on: April 06, 2020, 01:44:30 AM »
Ideally the US should have been able to control this outbreak through vigorous testing and contact tracing to isolate the high risk spreaders three months ago. Singapore, Iceland, and other smaller nations managed to pull that off with great success.  Once you miss that opportunity for the surgical strike option, though, it’s just so much harder.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #842 on: April 06, 2020, 05:31:33 AM »
Do you think that they shut some parts of the state, and the Country, down too soon ?  I know your area has alot of cases, but my county is barely over 50 cases, the whole place has been shut down for almost 3 weeks, so, since it has been past the incubation periods, doesnt that mean we are not going to get an overwhelming surge ? 

We can never move thru this without people catching it, we cant stay home forever.  I thought the point was to keep the hospitals from getting overwhelmed, which is a good thought.  We have seen this happen all over and need to avoid it.  But, so many places are so shut down and maybe they were wrong with the timing ? Or, maybe we were right with the timing, looking at it the other way.  But, we need to have a plan to move on also. Any ideas of how we can do this ?  And, am I wrong, that so few cases in after 3 weeks, that somehow it is going to surge while most of us are at home ?

Or no outbteak in one area allows you to divert covid specific medical resources to harder hit areas.

Offline Greekman

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #843 on: April 06, 2020, 05:33:05 AM »
guys and gals, did you catch anything in your news about the undergroudn war for masks....

Seems it is a rage, where ordered masks and other PPE, are seized in transit airports, or resold to a higher bitter even while loaded to the original clients plane, etc etc.

The word is out that Greece, staged an airlift operation with the involvement of a local alphabet service to secure delivery. Refuelling airports were some middle eastern ones (planes flying west from China), and the logistics center in China used, was run by -what a luck- a Greek!

Biy oh Boy, the stories and movies that we will be seeing in the coming decade!

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #844 on: April 06, 2020, 07:02:23 AM »
It is often said by Ioannidis, whose interview I linked.
Start testing en mass. in order to gather statistics, cos at this time we are flying blind.
Then selectively relax measures to start developing herd resistance.
Else the virus will come en-force late autumn.start of winter (IIRC this same thing happened with the spanish flu, the second year was harder).

He is a very good scientist.  Just to be clear, which I think you know, Greekman, but others may not, he isn't necessarily suggesting mass census level testing but rather demographically and geographically balanced random sampling at decent sample sizes.  The key thing is getting a representative view across the entire population, not the bias view of only looking at most severe cases.  We especially need a good antibodies test so we can tell how many were infected, not just how many are currently infected.  This will allow us to accurately estimate, among other things, the infection rate, hospitalization rate, and fatality rate and give guidance on lifting shelter in place orders. It also would allow us to understand what tecniques worked and what didn't

The projected fatalities are dropping quickly and the doomers are starting to calm down. The modelers who gave the early, ultra aggressive models to the government have even asked the US government that their projections be classified and their names not disclosed.  Noone is talking about 30 to 50 thousand deaths a day in US anymore, they are talking about 30 to 50 thousand deaths in total.

Now that fear is subsiding, government officials are looking more at the reasonable estimates and making better decisions on how to share resources, for example:

https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/washington-returns-hundreds-of-federal-ventilators-for-use-in-ny/amp/
Washington state returns hundreds of federal ventilators for use in New York

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee said Sunday that the state will return more than 400 ventilators of the 500 it has received from the federal government so they can go to New York and other states hit harder by the coronavirus.

The Democratic governor said Sunday that his statewide stay-at-home order and weeks of social distancing have led to slower rates of infections and deaths in Washington.


Let's hope these cooler minds prevail over the next two weeks which likely will show the virus peaking across the country.  So happy that Europe is getting over the hump too, especially Italy

https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/491243-italy-reports-fewest-coronavirus-deaths-in-weeks?amp
Italy reports fewest coronavirus deaths in weeks

Offline fritz_monroe

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #845 on: April 06, 2020, 07:26:33 AM »
The Democratic governor said Sunday
I know it's off topic, but this annoys the hell out of me.  He's the governor of Washington.  This makes no difference whatsoever to the story if he's a dem or rep.  It doesn't matter if the person is doing good or bad, if it does not pertain to the story, there's no legitimate reason to put it in the story.

When they do stories about Governor Hogan of Maryland.  He's a Republican in a predominately Democratic state.  But stories all say "the Republican Governor." 

Sorry for the short rant.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #846 on: April 06, 2020, 11:43:06 AM »
Southern California has quite a bit of variation in deaths per million between the Counties.  Orange is 5, San Bernardino is 6, Riverside is 8, and Los Angeles is 13.

I think the biggest problem with relaxing the stay home orders is that we don't know how many asymptomatic spreaders are still out there to cause a second wave, especially in the more densely populated areas.  It's going to take a lot more testing to get where we need to be.  Unfortunately the US stumbled badly on testing at the beginning and now we're playing catch up.

But, we have to have a second wave, then a third, then a.... it doesnt matter how many asymptomatic does it ?  I thought the whole point was to not get sick at once to not overwhelm the hospitals ?  If this wave is not overwhelming, or we are past its peak, then we need to let people out, with precautions, specifically so we can get a second wave !

We cannot stay home for that long.  So, what do you see is our plan to go on ?

And, yeah, I am looking at that map I posted the link to on California counties, so I can see that LA county is the worst, followed by San Diego, then the surounding like San Bernadino. 

And The entire city of San Francisco has under 600 confirmed cases, the entire Santa Clara county ( Silicon Valley) is one a little over one thousand.  And of course, people are asymptomatic, and others have symptoms but arent tested like my neighbor, who doesnt see a reason to bother, has an appointment to get tested this afternoon, but they told her the only have maybe one person a day come in tot be tested.  But, does it realy matter ?  As I said, the only reason it matters is hospital care not getting overwhelmed, which is a good reason, but we have had empty hospitals, and everyone staying home, for 3 weeks now.  SO, if the illness does not affect this area that badly, due to whatever reasons, they do need to start letting the less vulnerable ( no health problems, not elderly) out with face coverings .  What could be the aurgument not to ?  How else are we to move on ?

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #847 on: April 06, 2020, 11:48:45 AM »
Ideally the US should have been able to control this outbreak through vigorous testing and contact tracing to isolate the high risk spreaders three months ago. Singapore, Iceland, and other smaller nations managed to pull that off with great success.  Once you miss that opportunity for the surgical strike option, though, it’s just so much harder.

The whole country of singapore is similar to just L.A. county or New York city, more or less ?  ANd Iceland is an island with very few people !  Of course it is easier to count and control ! 

Every state here is like its own country, which is a feature, not a bug, to me and others.  You cannot treat all areas the same here, there will be multiple centers of outbreak in a country as large and diverse as ours.  So easy to get an outbreak under control if you are looking at a small island with very few people, or the equivalent of just LA county

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #848 on: April 06, 2020, 01:35:05 PM »

We cannot stay home for that long.  So, what do you see is our plan to go on ?


Without data on who's infected/immune and who is still vulnerable it's a huge risk to loosen restrictions in areas with high density populations (like the Bay Area).  I don't know what the solution is until then, but I'd watch what China, Italy, and Spain do.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #849 on: April 06, 2020, 01:41:16 PM »
The whole country of singapore is similar to just L.A. county or New York city, more or less ?  ANd Iceland is an island with very few people !  Of course it is easier to count and control ! 

Ease is relative.  It only takes sufficient money, testing, and people to perform the contact tracing in the US that would have been way less costly in terms of deaths, societal disruption, and economic downturn.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #850 on: April 06, 2020, 01:50:08 PM »
Some of the research on hydroxychloroquine has returned negative results.  Yet again, these are small studies and not definitive.  But they do suggest that we don't yet have a miracle cure.

4/3/20: A small trial finds that hydroxychloroquine is not effective for treating coronavirus

Quote
...The idea that the combination of hydroxychloroquine with an antibiotic drug, azithromycin, was effective against COVID-19 gained more attention after a study published on March 17. This study described a trial of 80 patients carried out by Philippe Gautret in Marseille, France. Although some of their results appeared to be encouraging, it should also be noted that most of their patients only had mild symptoms. Furthermore, 85% of the patients didn’t even have a fever – one of the major telltale symptoms of the virus, thus suggesting that these patients likely would have naturally cleared the virus without any intervention. ...

But two other studies have conflicting results.

A second French group, led by Jean-Michel Molina, has now tested the hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin combination treatment in 11 patients at the Hôpital Saint-Louis in Paris, France, and their results were strikingly different.

Like the Marseille study, the Molina trial was also a small pilot study. Molina and colleagues used the same dosing regimen as Gautret. In contrast, however, to the Gautret study, eight of the 11 patients had underlying health conditions, and 10 of 11 had fevers and were quite ill at the time the dosing began.

These Paris researchers found that after five to six days of treatment with hydroxychloroquine (600 mg per day for 10 days) and azithromycin (500 mg on day 1 and 250 mg on days 2 to 5), eight of the 10 patients still tested positive for COVID-19. Of these 10 patients, one patient died, two were transferred to the ICU and another had to be removed from the treatment due to serious complications.

In addition, a similar study in China also showed no difference in viral clearance after seven days either with or without the hydroxychloroquine with the patients in the trial. This supports Molina’s findings. ...

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #851 on: April 06, 2020, 02:13:34 PM »
Some very early positive results for Ivermectin:

4/6/20: Head lice drug Ivermectin is being tested as a possible coronavirus treatment, but that’s no reason to buy it

Quote
...Recent laboratory data from scientists at Monash University and the Doherty Institute suggests Ivermectin is able to stop SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, from replicating.

Ivermectin has also been shown to stop other viruses (such as HIV, dengue, influenza and Zika) replicating, at least in the laboratory.

The researchers found Ivermectin had an effect on SARS-CoV-2 after one exposure to the drug. Viral replication was shut down within 24 to 48 hours. ...

This research on Ivermectin has been conducted in cell culture (cells grown in a laboratory) and is very preliminary. It provides some promise, but not evidence of an effective treatment in people (yet).

Rigorous clinical trials in people with or exposed to COVID-19 infection are needed to establish the drug works and is safe to use, and in what doses. The laboratory studies of Ivermectin suggest higher concentrations of the drug may be needed beyond a standard dose to have an antiviral impact. So safety monitoring will be important. ...

More info in this press release from Monash University (but please discount the clickbait headline):

4/5/20: Coronavirus Fight: Scientists Identify COVID-19 Drug That “Kills” the Virus Within 48 Hours

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #852 on: April 06, 2020, 02:23:03 PM »
Without data on who's infected/immune and who is still vulnerable it's a huge risk to loosen restrictions in areas with high density populations (like the Bay Area).  I don't know what the solution is until then, but I'd watch what China, Italy, and Spain do.

I am not willing to do what china does, I will not wear a wrist band, or have a "certificate' or have my movements tracked, and I am not the only one

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #853 on: April 06, 2020, 02:26:59 PM »
But, we have to have a second wave, then a third, then a.... it doesnt matter how many asymptomatic does it ?  I thought the whole point was to not get sick at once to not overwhelm the hospitals ?  If this wave is not overwhelming, or we are past its peak, then we need to let people out, with precautions, specifically so we can get a second wave !

  As I said, the only reason it matters is hospital care not getting overwhelmed, which is a good reason, but we have had empty hospitals, and everyone staying home, for 3 weeks now.  SO, if the illness does not affect this area that badly, due to whatever reasons, they do need to start letting the less vulnerable ( no health problems, not elderly) out with face coverings .  What could be the aurgument not to ?  How else are we to move on ?
The other issue would be supply depletion.  Along with ventilators there are dozens of drugs that are used to some degree to treat patients.  Many are running short locally or widespread.  Also, nation wide, PPE is not being used ideally.  Let the supply of PPE, medical devices and drugs catch up.  Also, some immune-compromized people we want to be part of no wave of the disease, some people need to wait for a vaccine or some really hardcore, well vetted treatment therapies.  To protect those people properly we need a LOT more PPE than we have now.

Also, if we have tamped down on an area and there is not a significant outbreak there, we might need to move resources from there to hot spots, but you have to be careful loosening up in that area to not cause a flare up there after you have moved assets away.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #854 on: April 06, 2020, 02:30:35 PM »
I am not willing to do what china does, I will not wear a wrist band, or have a "certificate' or have my movements tracked, and I am not the only one

That’s fine. But we can see what happens to their case numbers when they open back up.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #855 on: April 06, 2020, 02:36:19 PM »
The other issue would be supply depletion.  Along with ventilators there are dozens of drugs that are used to some degree to treat patients.  Many are running short locally or widespread.  Also, nation wide, PPE is not being used ideally.  Let the supply of PPE, medical devices and drugs catch up.  Also, some immune-compromized people we want to be part of no wave of the disease, some people need to wait for a vaccine or some really hardcore, well vetted treatment therapies.  To protect those people properly we need a LOT more PPE than we have now.

Also, if we have tamped down on an area and there is not a significant outbreak there, we might need to move resources from there to hot spots, but you have to be careful loosening up in that area to not cause a flare up there after you have moved assets away.

I am one of the vulnerable.  That is why I have been home from before the lockdown.  But I do not think everyone has to stay home to protect me, that doesnt make sense.  I need to stay home to protect me.  Everyone was already working out volunteer ways to get supplies to stay-at-homes before the mandatory lock downs.  And everyone will need to get this, including me.  I just didnt want to get it during a mad rush when the hospitals would be overwhelmed, but it turns out they are not, so hindsight...

Having medical catch up is good, of course.  Fine -  except I have heard nothing out of the local .gov about how we are planning to move forward.  Or admitting that our models are wrong.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #856 on: April 06, 2020, 02:42:02 PM »
That’s fine. But we can see what happens to their case numbers when they open back up.

Well, they should go up.  They have to.  Not enough portion of the population has it yet.  Same as here.  The problem with looking at them ( China) is that we are not going to open up the same way as them, so it is not relevent how they keep it under control.  I should hope we have our own plan

But, it is true, how can we have any healthcare for anything if we do not start, big time, manufacturing our own Medical masks and such here on American soil.  So if we have a viable plan that is doing that, quickly !, then sure, we can wait a few more weeks  -  But, if that is the case they realy need to communicate where we are with that and what the metrics are we are waiting on, the plan needs to be communicated.  And, this is a State and COunty issue, the metrics waiting to see and that plan to open up lockdowns.  It is a federal plan on how we are doing with compelling companies to manufacture.  I would love to hear from both levels of Government on how all this is going

I think if I am feeling this way, then alot of other people are, as I realy dont go out much at all in normal times, and I wouldnt be going out right now for my own health issues.  So, I think many people in this country are likely wondering, hey ! The hyped models were off, I am not working, the stores dont have stock, the hospitals in most places are doing fine, what is the plan ?

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #857 on: April 06, 2020, 02:48:37 PM »
I am one of the vulnerable.  That is why I have been home from before the lockdown.  But I do not think everyone has to stay home to protect me, that doesnt make sense.  I need to stay home to protect me.  Everyone was already working out volunteer ways to get supplies to stay-at-homes before the mandatory lock downs.  And everyone will need to get this, including me.  I just didnt want to get it during a mad rush when the hospitals would be overwhelmed, but it turns out they are not, so hindsight...

Having medical catch up is good, of course.  Fine -  except I have heard nothing out of the local .gov about how we are planning to move forward.  Or admitting that our models are wrong.
You do you (your locality).  At the moment I dont want to perceive anyone in my area taking their eye off the ball, yet.

In military planning we talk about facts and assumptions, assumptions are things we dont know to be the case (are not facts), but we have to assume to be true to continue planning.  Assumptions are dangerous and can often sh*tcan entire plans.

The availability of tests, the responsiveness of test results, their validity (positive and negative) and PPE availability to people who are not medical providers are all things I am really interested in regardless of how taxed the hospitals are in my area.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #858 on: April 06, 2020, 02:49:42 PM »
Or admitting that our models are wrong.

Public health measures will always be either too much or too little when trying to predict the spread of a novel virus.  Just right is for fairy tales.

Stay calm and stay home.


Well, they should go up.  They have to. 

After two months of strict lockdown?  How many active cases can China have after 8+ incubation periods?

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #859 on: April 06, 2020, 02:57:19 PM »
Well, they should go up.  They have to.  Not enough portion of the population has it yet.  Same as here.  The problem with looking at them ( China) is that we are not going to open up the same way as them, so it is not relevent how they keep it under control.  I should hope we have our own plan

But, it is true, how can we have any healthcare for anything if we do not start, big time, manufacturing our own Medical masks and such here on American soil.  So if we have a viable plan that is doing that, quickly !, then sure, we can wait a few more weeks  -  But, if that is the case they realy need to communicate where we are with that and what the metrics are we are waiting on, the plan needs to be communicated.  And, this is a State and COunty issue, the metrics waiting to see and that plan to open up lockdowns.  It is a federal plan on how we are doing with compelling companies to manufacture.  I would love to hear from both levels of Government on how all this is going

I think if I am feeling this way, then alot of other people are, as I realy dont go out much at all in normal times, and I wouldnt be going out right now for my own health issues.  So, I think many people in this country are likely wondering, hey ! The hyped models were off, I am not working, the stores dont have stock, the hospitals in most places are doing fine, what is the plan ?
There are a lot of people that are running flat out trying to keep up with what is happening now.  The information you are asking for is out there, but the bandwidth to round up the data, plan, package the plan and present it is limited.  I am sure there are entities working it but they are proverbially building the airplane while in flight.

We often have am idea that a problem high enough in echelon has people for that, but this is definitely a complex problem.  Numerous echelons of government with separations of power, global problem, a global market which no one really controls or can even perceive in its totality.  No answer exists out there that is going to satisfy a person concerned about this thing, even if the right people are doing the right things.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #860 on: April 06, 2020, 03:37:05 PM »
https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/medical-group-backs-giving-hydroxychloroquine-to-coronavirus-patients/amp/
Medical group endorses anti-malarial drug treatment for coronavirus patients

America’s major medical society specializing in the treatment of respiratory diseases has endorsed using hydroxychloroquine for seriously ill hospitalized coronavirus patients.

The American Thoracic Society issued guidelines Monday that suggest COVID-19 patients with pneumonia get doses of the anti-malaria drug.

“To prescribe hydroxychloroquine (or chloroquine) to hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia if all of the following apply: a) shared decision-making is possible, b) data can be collected for interim comparisons of patients who received hydroxychloroquine (or chloroquine) versus those who did not, c) the illness is sufficiently severe to warrant investigational therapy, and d) the drug is not in short supply,” the Thoracic Society said.

The use of hydroxychloroquine has been hotly debated.
...
Critics have criticized the promotion of using the drug based on limited or anecdotal evidence.

The Thoracic Society said its guidelines are based on input from an international task force comprised of doctors from medical centers that are currently treating COVID-19 patients.


https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/hydroxychloroquine-most-effective-coronavirus-treatment-poll/amp/
Hydroxychloroquine rated ‘most effective’ coronavirus treatment, poll of doctors finds

Of the 6,227 physicians surveyed in 30 countries, 37 percent rated hydroxychloroquine the “most effective therapy” for combating the potentially deadly illness, according to the results released Thursday.

The survey, conducted by the global health care polling company Sermo, also found that 23 percent of medical professionals had prescribed the drug in the US — far less than other countries.

“Outside the US, hydroxychloroquine was equally used for diagnosed patients with mild to severe symptoms whereas in the US it was most commonly used for high risk diagnosed patients,” the survey found.

The medicine was most widely used in Spain, where 72 percent of physicians said they had prescribed it.
..
Sermo CEO Peter Kirk called the polling results a “treasure trove of global insights for policymakers.”

“Physicians should have more of a voice in how we deal with this pandemic and be able to quickly share information with one another and the world,” he said in a press release.

The 30 countries where doctors were surveyed included Europe, South America and Australia — and no incentives were provided to participate, the company said.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2020, 03:45:13 PM by iam4liberty »

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #861 on: April 06, 2020, 03:49:42 PM »
There are a lot of people that are running flat out trying to keep up with what is happening now.  The information you are asking for is out there, but the bandwidth to round up the data, plan, package the plan and present it is limited.  I am sure there are entities working it but they are proverbially building the airplane while in flight.

We often have am idea that a problem high enough in echelon has people for that, but this is definitely a complex problem.  Numerous echelons of government with separations of power, global problem, a global market which no one really controls or can even perceive in its totality.  No answer exists out there that is going to satisfy a person concerned about this thing, even if the right people are doing the right things.

Thank you both for feedback, I am of course, staying home, while concerned about the societal implications.  But I know if I am antsy, others are more so. 

Offline David in MN

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #862 on: April 06, 2020, 03:50:13 PM »
Totally right about assumptions, Chem. I've been trying to make heads or tails from all the predictive modeling being done but it's almost useless. I have seen (what I would call) serious models that vary from 30,000 deaths to 2.5 million. That's a massive delta. If you do statistics on the statistics (back of the envelope) the Gaussian curve here is about as flat as it gets and I hate making claims with very large standards of deviation. Until there is some kind of testing we don't know what we're looking at. As it sits, we are only testing medical personnel, people symptomatic, politicians, and celebrities. That's not helpful (and a little insulting frankly).

I do have some concerns because I can look at societies that did the right thing and did big testing. I was keen to look at Iceland for this very reason. What scared me about Iceland is that about half of positive tests were asymptomatic. It isn't a perfect translation to the USA because Icelanders are pretty mono-culture and we don't really know what impact things like genetics, food, climate, lifestyle, etc. have on the disease. But if half of us who get it never show a symptom we're screwed as soon as we lift the gates.

It all ends up with a hard confession from someone who likes data: I have no idea. I take the work being done at the Universities of Washington and Chicago at good faith as well as the federal government and the British colleges trying to parse the data. But the data is all over the place and each team uses different assumptions.

I am trying to follow the data as best I can with the help of a few other math minded people I know. If something makes sense I'll post it. But for now we're all in the dark. And that sucks.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #863 on: April 06, 2020, 04:07:19 PM »
Nice job, West Coasters.  Keep on bending.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/04/06/california-sends-500-ventilators-back-to-national-stockpile-1272393
California sends 500 ventilators back to national stockpile

Ventilators from California will flow into the Strategic National Stockpile. Oregon announced Saturday it was sending 140 ventilators to New York, while Washington said Sunday it was returning more than 400 of the machines.
...
Some California health officials have gained more confidence in recent days that the state's infection curve is flattening, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area, which took the nation's earliest shelter-in-place actions.

Newsom echoed that hopeful note Monday, saying hospitals were on pace to provide more additional beds than initially thought and that Californians "by definition are bending the curve" by hewing to a stay-at-home order.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #864 on: April 06, 2020, 06:02:50 PM »
Totally right about assumptions, Chem. I've been trying to make heads or tails from all the predictive modeling being done but it's almost useless. I have seen (what I would call) serious models that vary from 30,000 deaths to 2.5 million. That's a massive delta. If you do statistics on the statistics (back of the envelope) the Gaussian curve here is about as flat as it gets and I hate making claims with very large standards of deviation. Until there is some kind of testing we don't know what we're looking at. As it sits, we are only testing medical personnel, people symptomatic, politicians, and celebrities. That's not helpful (and a little insulting frankly).

I do have some concerns because I can look at societies that did the right thing and did big testing. I was keen to look at Iceland for this very reason. What scared me about Iceland is that about half of positive tests were asymptomatic. It isn't a perfect translation to the USA because Icelanders are pretty mono-culture and we don't really know what impact things like genetics, food, climate, lifestyle, etc. have on the disease. But if half of us who get it never show a symptom we're screwed as soon as we lift the gates.

It all ends up with a hard confession from someone who likes data: I have no idea. I take the work being done at the Universities of Washington and Chicago at good faith as well as the federal government and the British colleges trying to parse the data. But the data is all over the place and each team uses different assumptions.

I am trying to follow the data as best I can with the help of a few other math minded people I know. If something makes sense I'll post it. But for now we're all in the dark. And that sucks.

Yeah, it is maddening.  I have been working with my unit planning for how to maintain readiness for contingencies, how to keep our most important functions going and how to help the local response.  Holy crud, we were literally junking our plans faster than we could make them because everything was changing constantly.

I am a CBRN guy, I studied pandemic disease outbreaks for the first time 20 years ago.  I read Barry's book on the 1918 influenza years ago.  I absolutely knew we could have an outbreak of this scale.  But I never completely visualized how it would impact things in the full HD color picture I see now.

Military units pressing their unit fabrication capability and parachute riggers' sewing machines to produce PPE.  Warfighting units with niche production capabilities where their shooters are sheltered in place at home doing correspondence courses while the support guys are churning out hundreds of masks for the local hospitals.  Combat medics being hastily trained to help work the wards at the hospital.  Us wracking our brains for every little thing we can do to help.

My family has no material wants, I saw to that, but I am expending significant skull sweat figuring out my kids online educating and teaching life skills.  I have always tried to teach my kids how to help around the house, but when an old friend and his wife went down with this thing and their teenage daughter was taking the load of caregiver to sick parents and younger siblings...it got a lot more urgent in my mind.

A person never is really prepared are they?  Just better prepared than they were.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #865 on: April 06, 2020, 11:55:30 PM »
Cumulative Cases/Deaths per Million Population


Nation/State   Cases/mil   Deaths/mil
Spain2,923285
Italy2,192273
France1,502137
UK76079
US1,11133
Germany1,23422
Canada4429
Greece1688
Czechia4507
--- --- ---
New York6,724243
New Jersey4,626113
Louisiana3,188110
Michigan1,72973
Connecticut1,92858
Washington1,14952
Massachusetts ^x12,02638
Vermont86937
Georgia ^x373429
Colorado93527
Rhode Island1,02426
Illinois95624
Indiana74521
Mississippi ^x258217
Nevada66816
Delaware82516
Maryland ^x467415
Pennsylvania1,02614
Wisconsin42213
Oklahoma33913
Kentucky ^x222713
Florida66212
Ohio38212
Alabama ^x341211
California41710
Tennessee ^x657210
South Carolina ^x145010
Missouri ^x14479
Arizona3549
Kansas2919
Idaho ^x66938
Iowa ^x33028
Maine3748
Alaska2598
Oregon2777
New Hampshire5327
Virginia3426
New Mexico3286
Montana3066
Texas2905
North Carolina ^x32995
Minnesota1785
Arkansas3105
South Dakota3335
Utah ^x25505
Nebraska 2164
Hawaii ^x12724
North Dakota2994
West Virginia1892
Wyoming3640


Too much of the wrong kind of upward mobility among many of the southern states today, especially Tennessee.

Idaho and Utah are on the move, too, with per capita cases that appear likely to result in higher death rates to follow, but Pennsylvania is really out of wack in that regard.

If you'd told me a month ago that California would half the per capita rates of Indiana I wouldn't have believed it.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #866 on: April 07, 2020, 12:24:51 AM »
The American Thoracic Society issued guidelines Monday that suggest COVID-19 patients with pneumonia get doses of the anti-malaria drug.

“To prescribe hydroxychloroquine (or chloroquine) to hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia if all of the following apply: a) shared decision-making is possible, b) data can be collected for interim comparisons of patients who received hydroxychloroquine (or chloroquine) versus those who did not, c) the illness is sufficiently severe to warrant investigational therapy, and d) the drug is not in short supply,” the Thoracic Society said.

The Thoracic Society's position is perfectly reasonable and responsible, within the parameters they specified, and no doc is going to quibble with that guidance.



The survey, conducted by the global health care polling company Sermo, also found that 23 percent of medical professionals had prescribed the drug in the US — far less than other countries.

“Outside the US, hydroxychloroquine was equally used for diagnosed patients with mild to severe symptoms whereas in the US it was most commonly used for high risk diagnosed patients,” the survey found.

The medicine was most widely used in Spain, where 72 percent of physicians said they had prescribed it.
..
Sermo CEO Peter Kirk called the polling results a “treasure trove of global insights for policymakers.”

“Physicians should have more of a voice in how we deal with this pandemic and be able to quickly share information with one another and the world,” he said in a press release.

The 30 countries where doctors were surveyed included Europe, South America and Australia — and no incentives were provided to participate, the company said.[/i]

Sermo's crap goes straight to my junkmail and having to actually mention "no incentives" is telling. 


I'm with team Fauci on this one......show me the peer-reviewed randomized controlled clinic trials.


Offline Greekman

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #867 on: April 07, 2020, 01:52:36 AM »
FreeLancer, I guess the figures you posted are of those countries that we have members of, but do have a look at Turkeys stats....They are "booming". Their logarithmic curve of cases is sharper than italy's
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/turkey/

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #868 on: April 07, 2020, 12:05:21 PM »
LA doctor finding same results as French doctor.  He cites need for zinc.  Which goes along with earlier findings that while some people may have high enough concentrations of zinc in body, others may need supplements for maximum potency.

https://abc7.com/amp/coronavirus-drug-covid-19-malaria-hydroxychloroquine/6079864/
LA DOCTOR SEEING SUCCESS WITH HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE TO TREAT COVID-19

LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- A Los Angeles doctor said he is seeing significant success in prescribing the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine in combination with zinc to treat patients with severe symptoms of COVID-19.
...
Dr. Anthony Cardillo said he has seen very promising results when prescribing hydroxychloroquine in combination with zinc for the most severely-ill COVID-19 patients.

"Every patient I've prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within 8 to 12 hours, they were basically symptom-free," Cardillo told Eyewitness News. "So clinically I am seeing a resolution."
...
He said he has found it only works if combined with zinc. The drug, he said, opens a channel for the zinc to enter the cell and block virus replication

Offline Prepper456

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #869 on: April 07, 2020, 06:36:36 PM »

The medicine was most widely used in Spain, where 72 percent of physicians said they had prescribed it.

then why are their numbers still climbing if 72% of doctors prescribed it?