Author Topic: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China  (Read 66790 times)

Offline Mr. Bill

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Online FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1261 on: July 13, 2020, 07:14:48 PM »
WSJ:  Scientists Hoped Summer Temperatures Would Tamp Down Covid-19 Cases. What Happened?

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There are three likely reasons, public-health and infectious-disease experts said. They have to do with the current levels of immunity in the population, how the virus is transmitted and how people behave.

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After running their model under several different scenarios, the researchers found that seasonal changes in climate became an important factor in limiting viral spread only after a large part of the population became immune to the virus.

“The main punchline of our paper is that at this early stage of the pandemic, lack of population immunity…dominates any climate effect,” said Rachel Baker, an epidemiologist at Princeton University and the lead author of the study.

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Even though at least one study has suggested that sunlight can inactivate the virus on contaminated surfaces, scientists said it isn’t common to contract Covid-19 that way. Instead, health agencies have identified respiratory droplets as the major mode of transmission—when a sick person coughs, sneezes or speaks, they expel large fluid droplets that can transfer virus to someone else.

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Which brings up the most important factor of all: Human behavior, experts said, trumps climate altogether.

The virus tends to spread best during close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods, they said, especially at crowded events, in poorly ventilated areas and in places where people are talking loudly, shouting or even singing.

To limit transmission, public-health experts said people should try to avoid spending extended periods in such places, including crowded indoor bars and restaurants. Public-health experts said people should don masks, stay at least 6 feet apart and practice good hand hygiene.

Online FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1262 on: July 13, 2020, 08:49:54 PM »
Today's winner, amongst some the world's dismalest shitholes, is........


Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1263 on: July 13, 2020, 10:33:25 PM »
It has been interesting watching progressives on social media melt down over hydroxychloroquine this past week.  They are having a tough time deciding which is greater, their love of Cuban socialized medicine or their hatred of Trump.  That's what happens when you put politics above science.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/cuba-early-hydroxychloroquine-potent-against-covid-19/1905650
Cuba: Early hydroxychloroquine potent against COVID-19

"We are aware of the polemics around this product. Physicians here mostly have a good opinion of the results it has achieved, provided that it is used at an early stage in low doses and only with patients without comorbidities, which could be complicated by hydroxychloroquine," Dr. Davila added.

Online FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1264 on: July 13, 2020, 10:42:17 PM »
Cumulative Cases/Deaths per Million Population

Nation/State         Cases/mil Deaths/mil
US10,510418
Chile16,612367
Peru10,008365
Brazil8,880343
Mexico2,360275
Canada  2,865233
Panama10,928216
--- --- ---
New Jersey 20,4191,761
New York22,0171,668
Connecticut 13,3261,226
Massachusetts 16,2241,209
Rhode Island  16,507929
Washington, DC15,453805
Louisiana17,172737
Michigan7,730633
Illinois 12,305583
Maryland 12,162550
Pennsylvania 7,841544
Delaware 13,226531
Mississippi ^x112,325420
Indiana 7,730410
Arizona ^x517,012308
Colorado 6,467300
New Hampshire 4,463288
Georgia 11,356285
Minnesota 7,584273
Ohio 5,723263
New Mexico 7,292261
Iowa 11,286239
Virginia 8,393231
Alabama 11,328229
Florida ^x113,150199
Nevada ^x29,258193
South Carolina ^x2 11,298189
Washington5,613189
Missouri 4,896185
California 8,505180
Nebraska 11,062149
North Carolina 8,365148
Wisconsin 6,345141
Kentucky 4,399141
South Dakota 8,505123
Texas ^x59,474115
North Dakota 5,829114
Tennessee ^x39,558110
Arkansas ^x29,589107
Oklahoma 5,243107
Kansas 6,948102
Vermont 2,08590
Maine 2,64785
Utah 9,36767
Idaho 6,38057
Oregon ^x12,949 56
West Virginia 2,40754
Wyoming 3,29036
Montana 1,72430
Alaska 2,10423
Hawaii 87816


Total US cases increased from >14% in a week, deaths by 4%. 

Westernized Europe and Asia are pretty stable, this appears to be mainly a problem for the lesser developed countries, at this point.

Arizona increased cases by >22%, Texas by >30%, and Florida by >36% over the same 7 days.  They're increased death rates are just getting started.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1265 on: July 14, 2020, 11:08:30 AM »
San Antonio TX, 7/10/20: 'I thought this was a hoax': Patient in 30s dies after attending 'COVID party'

LOL.  These stories are like big foot, bloody mary, and slender man but with less evidence. Funny to see media descend so completely into the realm of urban myth.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-latest-covid-party-story-gets-a-twist/
The Latest Covid Party Story Gets a Twist
Like any urban legend, this one changes slightly with each telling.


THE COVID PARTY craze continues to sweep the nation—or, at least, the nation’s news organizations. The latest example comes from Texas, where a 30-year-old man is said to have confessed on his death bed that he had attended one. “Just before the patient died,” announced Jane Appleby, chief medical officer at Methodist Hospital in San Antonio, “they looked at their nurse and said, ‘I think I made a mistake. I thought this was a hoax, but it’s not.’”
...
Two weeks ago, I noted that news reports about Covid parties—in which people supposedly get together with the goal of catching the virus—have followed a remarkably consistent pattern. The source is invariably a government or health official who is several steps removed, at least, from any firsthand knowledge of the alleged event. The story is first reported by local media, then picked up and amplified by larger publications that add little or no additional reporting. A few weeks ago, for example, the internet blew up with a tale of Alabama college students who were supposedly throwing parties with infected people and betting on who could catch the virus first. Outlets from the Associated Press to CNN picked up the story, with its ready stereotypes about Southerners and idiot college kids. But when I looked into it, I realized that all the news reports traced back to comments from a single Tuscaloosa city council member, who offered no evidence for the claim.
...
Shortly after my piece came out, the University of Alabama student newspaper published an article in which Ramesh Peramsetty, a Tuscaloosa doctor whose clinic has been offering Covid tests, confirmed the rumor was true. When I followed up with Peramsetty, he admitted he had no firsthand knowledge of the Covid parties; it was something he heard from his staff, who work directly with patients. He directed me to Jerri Hanna, a clinical manager, who he said had direct knowledge. Hanna, however, told me that she had heard about Covid parties from yet another clinic employee. That second employee, who asked that I not use her name because she has been harassed while running testing sites, revealed that she’d only heard about the parties from someone else on staff—but couldn’t remember exactly who. The rumor remained a rumor.
...
The Texas story is more of the same. A patient—who is now dead, and thus can’t confirm the story—supposedly told a nurse, who told others at the hospital. In her video, Appleby, the health director, doesn’t claim otherwise; she says she “heard a heartbreaking story this week.” In a related interview for a local station, Appleby describes hearing about parties in which “someone will be diagnosed with the disease and they’ll have a party to invite their friends over to see if they can beat the disease.”
...
News organizations, including The New York Times, have reported the story without trying to get to the bottom of it, or even finding out basic information such as where or when the alleged party took place. Some even create a false sense of certainty by crafting headlines that omit the source of the claim, like ABC News’s “30-Year-Old Dies After Attending ‘COVID Party’ Thinking Virus Was a ‘Hoax.’”
...
When I reached out to the hospital for comment, communications director Cheri Love-Moceri told me that Appleby wasn’t available and had “shared all that she is able to regarding this patient.” She also said the hospital couldn’t share the name of the nurse who reported the death bed confession.
...
Like any urban legend, the Covid party narrative changes slightly with each telling. Until this latest iteration, the events have almost always been described—or imagined—as if they were analogous to the “pox parties” of old, where people tried to catch a virus, and become immune, so as to “get it over with.”
...
If the victim really thought the pandemic was a hoax, why would he have been hoping for the antibodies? So now the Covid party concept has expanded. Thus The New York Times informs us, as if we won’t notice there’s a sly addition, that “the premise of such parties is to test whether the virus really exists or to intentionally expose people to the coronavirus in an attempt to gain immunity.” The narrative also seems to grow ever more dramatic as it’s reimagined: first, a betting pool, now a dying man’s reveal.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1266 on: July 14, 2020, 07:17:24 PM »
Llamas have weird antibodies.  This may lead to a COVID-19 treatment. ...

More progress.  This may become a viable treatment for seriously-ill COVID patients.

Press release, 7/13/20: Engineered llama antibodies neutralise COVID-19 virus

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...Llamas, camels and alpacas naturally produce quantities of small antibodies with a simpler structure, that can be turned into nanobodies. The team engineered their new nanobodies using a collection of antibodies taken from llama blood cells. They have shown that the nanobodies bind tightly to the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, blocking it from entering human cells and stopping infection. ...

The journal article, 7/13/20: Neutralizing nanobodies bind SARS-CoV-2 spike RBD and block interaction with ACE2

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1267 on: July 14, 2020, 07:23:02 PM »
LOL.  These stories are like big foot, bloody mary, and slender man but with less evidence. Funny to see media descend so completely into the realm of urban myth.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-latest-covid-party-story-gets-a-twist/
The Latest Covid Party Story Gets a Twist
Like any urban legend, this one changes slightly with each telling.
...

Yup, that one caught me.  I shouldn't have posted without waiting for confirmation.

Offline DDJ

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1268 on: July 15, 2020, 10:18:47 AM »
Do Covid parties prove Darwin or challenge his assessment?

HMMM.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1269 on: July 15, 2020, 01:50:33 PM »
Editorial (with factual info) by Prague resident Steven Kashkett, 7/14/20: Czech Republic has lifesaving COVID-19 lesson for America: Wear a face mask

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Anyone interested in a real world case study on the extraordinary effectiveness of face masks in suppressing the spread of the coronavirus need look no farther than Prague. In this capital city of 1.3 million, among the first in Europe to decree mandatory universal mask-wearing almost four months ago, life has now returned to normal. 

All of Prague’s shops, restaurants, schools and offices are open, and the government has lifted the last remaining restrictions on large public gatherings. Commerce is flourishing. Face mask-wearing has all but disappeared. ...

At the beginning of April, ... I was astonished to observe the remarkable transformation of this country, virtually overnight, into Europe’s premier model of social discipline in wearing homemade face masks.

Czech leaders, including the prime minister, interior minister and health minister, set a proper example by wearing masks, appeared on television to urge the nation to make this collective sacrifice. The government widely circulated a persuasive video articulating the philosophy of “my mask protects you, your mask protects me."

People responded positively. Masks quickly became a symbol of shared commitment to the battle against the pandemic. Through March, April and most of May, only a small minority, perhaps 10-15%, could be seen without face coverings in the streets of Prague.

Within two weeks of the government’s mandatory face mask order in mid-March, the daily number of new coronavirus cases dropped throughout the Czech Republic. In Prague, which had been the initial epicenter of the country’s virus outbreak, daily new infections fell into the double digits (and often the single digits) in April. ...

I have a friend who emigrated from the US to the Czech Republic a few years ago, and he adds this personal observation:

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The response of the people here has been, and I say this with full consideration, awe-inspiring. People started wearing masks -before- the law required it. When retail sales of PPE were stopped, every housewife, handyman, haberdasher, and theatre costume-shop in the country started sewing. Clothing factories and tailor's shops went to work like fiends. Mask trees popped up all over the country, where you could grab a mask for free or leave the ones you'd made for strangers. Restaurants changed their waitstaff into delivery couriers overnight, so people could keep their jobs. Entrepeneurs, inventors, and engineers got to work figuring out how to 3d print parts for gas masks and ventilators. The Škoda car factory converted their in-house 3d printing facility to making parts for respirators. Across the border, their brothers and sisters in Slovakia did the same. The British rightly boast of the Blitz Spirit, and I think the Czech and Slovak people will speak with equal and righteous pride of the Covid Spirit. It has been incredible to see.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1270 on: July 15, 2020, 02:14:17 PM »
Um...if you are running a testing center and you know your data is being misreported, you have a responsibility to get that fixed.  Just freaking pick up the phone and call the governor's office.  And what is Fox talking about "countless labs".  Of course they can be counted and they should be counted.  Everyone of them with misreported data should go back and fix it.

Well, we at least now know more details on why they fired the dashboard person who continued to post the numbers despite the epidemiologist team saying what she was posting was innacurate.  Though that it took months for it to be revealed is frightening.

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-florida-department-of-health-says-some-labs-have-not-reported-negative-covid-19-results
FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Florida Department of Health says some labs have not reported negative COVID-19 results

Countless labs have reported a 100 percent positivity rate, which means every single person tested was positive. Other labs had very high positivity rates. FOX 35 News found that testing sites like one local Centra Care reported that 83 people were tested and all tested positive. Then, NCF Diagnostics in Alachua reported 88 percent of tests were positive.
...
How could that be? FOX 35 News investigated these astronomical numbers, contacting every local location mentioned in the report.

The report showed that Orlando Health had a 98 percent positivity rate. However, when FOX 35 News contacted the hospital, they confirmed errors in the report. Orlando Health's positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent as in the report.

The report also showed that the Orlando Veteran’s Medical Center had a positivity rate of 76 percent. A spokesperson for the VA told FOX 35 News on Tuesday that this does not reflect their numbers and that the positivity rate for the center is actually 6 percent.

Offline David in MN

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1271 on: July 15, 2020, 07:07:16 PM »
So what happens when the lagging death rate doesn't occur? It won't because our testing protocol has been modified while data was collected. That's not bad science, it's a complete backward science position. You can't make models based on only testing the sickest people and then extrapolate those numbers out to the positive tests when we have mass testing and young healthy people test positive multiple times.

Pay attention. You are witnessing the worst math I have personally ever seen. Anyone with a slight knowledge of 4th grade statistics could pick this data set apart and realizes the case rate is almost a meaningless number, particularly as it diverges more and more from fatalities (which are also BS).

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1272 on: July 15, 2020, 08:08:30 PM »
Pay attention. You are witnessing the worst math I have personally ever seen. Anyone with a slight knowledge of 4th grade statistics could pick this data set apart and realizes the case rate is almost a meaningless number, particularly as it diverges more and more from fatalities (which are also BS).

Yes, most of the elementary school science projects I have judged have been better than some of these ststes.  No excuse for it as every stste has a good science university they could have engaged for free for data checking.  It is pure negligence.

They are talking about this on radio show now.  One thing they brought up is that it looks like the African American snd Hispanic higher rates look to be completely explained by these data aberrations.  I will need to check into that. 

Online FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1273 on: July 15, 2020, 10:07:11 PM »
Cumulative Cases/Deaths per Million Population

Nation/State         Cases/mil Deaths/mil
US10,924 423
Peru10,238376
Chile16,797376
Brazil9,270355
Mexico2,463286
Canada  2,882233
Panama11,406227
--- --- ---
New Jersey 20,5011,768
New York22,1181,670
Connecticut 13,3611,229
Massachusetts 16,3001,214
Rhode Island  16,652932
Washington, DC15,623809
Louisiana18,098745
Michigan7,902634
Illinois 12,455586
Maryland 12,408553
Pennsylvania 7,996549
Delaware 13,402535
Mississippi 12,959433
Indiana 7,928414
Arizona 18,046334
Colorado 6,626303
Georgia ^x112,040291
New Hampshire 4,496290
Minnesota 7,756276
New Mexico ^x17,555266
Ohio 5,935264
Alabama 12,047247
Iowa 11,513244
Virginia 8,614233
Florida 14,052210
Nevada 9,892201
South Carolina 12,089194
Washington5,824187
California ^x18,992186
Missouri 5,085186
North Carolina ^x18,723153
Nebraska 11,362150
Kentucky ^x14,628144
Wisconsin 6,651142
Texas ^x110,278125
South Dakota 8,650125
Tennessee ^x110,113115
North Dakota 5,990115
Arkansas 10,039111
Oklahoma 5,765109
Kansas 7,242104
Vermont 2,11290
Maine 2,66285
Utah 9,63573
Idaho 6,96462
Oregon 3,101 59
West Virginia 2,54355
Wyoming 3,43038
Montana 1,96132
Alaska 2,23023
Hawaii 91316
--- --- ---
2 Day Increase%%
Panama45
Mexico44
Brazil 4 3
Peru23
Chile12
US 4 1
Canada  00
--- --- ---
Texas 8 9
Alabama 6 9
Arizona 6 8
Florida 7 6
Tennessee 6 5
South Carolina 7 3
California 6 3
North Carolina 4 3
Mississippi 5 3
Kentucky 5 2
New Mexico 4 2
Louisiana 5 1


It's looking like summer's going to continue to suck for the I-10 corridor.

Offline Greekman

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1274 on: July 16, 2020, 09:45:19 AM »
Numbers overhere in Greece are coming back up.
this is partly due to tourist point of entry discoveries as a certain percentage of tourist is being tested as they land.
At one time it was 2/3 of the daily cases...

yet, the observation of COVID-19 traces in sewage is also coming up. June stats show April levels attained, while there was a considerable improvement for May.
the chief scientist said that we are observing an increase in asymptomatic cases.
The good thing i that deaths do not follow the incidents re-emergence

BTW, here is the Greek graph by the FT
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=grc&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=1&values=cases
and from worldometer
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/

Offline David in MN

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1275 on: July 16, 2020, 11:30:41 AM »
I had a discussion with a friend who is what I would call statistically numerate and the confusion he had with respect to the data set was bewildering.

1) There is no "second wave". Yes, some states got hit more rapidly because they had underlying circumstances like high travel or had a backward concept like putting sick people in nursing homes (ironically a great socialist strategy of eliminating non-workers but we'll ignore that for now). So to see it wind its way more slowly through states like Florida that did a much better job of slowing the spread despite having a disproportionately older populous should not be evidence of anything other than only a pudding-for-brains governor would mirror the timetable of New York (and they all did).

2) A high case rate that decouples from the death rate is a sign of success, not failure. I can't believe I had to explain this to a statistician but that's the pathetic state of math in our society. We want to see people at low risk recovering quickly and beefing up the immunity. That's the only way we can protect the people who are at risk (presuming they don't live in New York or Minnesota). The idea that a vaccine would be a cure but testing positive for antibodies is a travesty should make people do a few laps in whatever is left of the bong resin that used to be their mind.

I don't know where this is coming from. Sure I get that the media is playing up positive tests for no reason but they're the same people who insisted that Trump works for Putin and there are WMDs in Iraq. That credibility got shredded long ago. At the end of the day I guess we are able to tell two stories: One where positive tests are increasing and death is at our door and the other where we are seeing massive survivorship statistics and we are burning through this outbreak with relative success as pandemics go.

Offline Hurricane

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1276 on: July 16, 2020, 03:45:58 PM »
This bogus reporting of positive cases leads me to question the whole "asymptomatic" business. How many of those people never really had it?
We may find that only those who actually needed medical treatment were positive.

Offline David in MN

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1277 on: July 16, 2020, 04:50:40 PM »
This bogus reporting of positive cases leads me to question the whole "asymptomatic" business. How many of those people never really had it?
We may find that only those who actually needed medical treatment were positive.

You're on to something there. Bear in mind that if this really isn't as bad as projected they REALLY need the inflated numbers because to think otherwise would mean they destroyed the economy for nothing. It's an unwinnable position.

There are 2 wrenches that have been thrown in the gears, though. First we have Sweden. If they come through in line with other strategies we will all have a crap the bed moment. Those numbers will be very telling.

The other wrench, which I cannot overstate is the kingmaking going on. For whatever reason the media has decided Andrew Cuomo is the hero of the story despite having the worst outcome of all 50 states. They likewise have crucified Ron DeSantis of Florida even though his results were much better than New York. But the telling story nobody is speaking of is the shenanigans of Gavin Newsom in California who has been largely ignored. He's been trying to keep himself relevant and largely his results are better than Cuomo but he has not achieved "media darling" status. My governor opened elective surgery by happy accident after a visit to the Mayo Clinic where the skeptic in me assumes he got an earful about where his bread is buttered.

Bear in mind that any solution implemented through politics demands that everyone involved declare it a success and it only could have been better if "you had listened to me sooner". Instead of real data we will claim that everybody's idea was correct and take claim for the trillions who didn't die. And that's going to happen from the president to your PTA.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1278 on: July 16, 2020, 09:01:17 PM »
Another study on hydroxychloroquine was released where they are using low sample sizes (less than 500) to mask effect.  This time hydroxychloroquine reduced hospitalization and mortality by 37.5% and reduced persistant symptoms versus placebo over a 14 day period.  But they didnt even test all participants for infection, the whole point of the study!   They blamed "test shortages", lol. It has gotten comical.  Guess we will need to wait for the meta-analysis where collectively these results will be holistically analyzed at a sufficient sample size.

https://m.timesofindia.com/world/us/hydroxychloroquine-ineffective-against-mild-covid-19-us-study-shows/amp_articleshow/77009445.cms

The randomized, placebo-controlled study was conducted on 491 non-hospitalized patients. Owing to test shortages in the United States, only 58% of participants were tested for the disease.
...
five individuals who were given hydroxychloroquine were hospitalized or died because of Covid-19, compared with eight people given a placebo.

Offline Greekman

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1279 on: July 18, 2020, 01:38:43 AM »
More results on Quarantine sewage contents for Greece..this time it was drugs and pharmaceuticals

NSAIDs -28%
Antidepressants +57%
Hyopertension Drugs -28% (eitehr people did not medicate properly or relaxed during the quarantine)
Paracetamol +198%
Antibiotics +41%
Anivirals +114%

Cocaine +67%
Meth +35%
Amphetamines  +650% !!!!!!
Ecstasy -38%

but even these are mild increases when compared to the equivalent in psycho acting drugs that was observed at the start of our economic crisis (+1100% for the antidepressants)

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1280 on: July 20, 2020, 09:47:43 AM »
Another low sample size, somewhat limited representative study. (sigh)  But at least this one included zinc in early treatment and confirmed positive COVID patients .  The results are in line with earlier ones demonstrating dramatic efficacy of the combination. A strong meta-analysis case is forming.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/newly-published-outpatient-study-finds-that-early-use-of-zinc-hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-is-associated-with-less-hospitalizations-and-death-301094237.html
Newly Published Outpatient Study Finds that Early Use of Zinc, Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin Is Associated with Less Hospitalizations and Death

The study, which has been submitted for peer review, found that early intervention and treatment of risk stratified COVID-19 patients in the outpatient setting resulted in five times less hospitalizations and deaths. The medications used in the treatment approach were zinc, low dose hydroxychloroquine, and azithromycin.

Prior studies of COVID-19 treatments have been largely based on severely ill patients in the hospital. This study examines outcomes of patients treated after their first visit to the doctor's office.
...
The main results show that of 141 patients who were treated with the triple therapy, only 2.8% (4/141) were hospitalized compared to 15.4% of an untreated control group (58/377) (odds ratio 0.16, 95% CI 0.06-0.5; p<0.001). Only 0.71% (1/141) patients died in the treatment group, versus 3.5% (13/377) in the untreated group (odds ratio 0.2, 95% CI 0.03-1.5; p=0.16).
...
"Hydroxychloroquine's main function within this treatment approach is to allow zinc to enter the cell. Zinc is the virus killer, and azithromycin prevents secondary bacterial infection in the lungs and reduces the risk of pulmonary complications."

"The world seems to have forgotten common medical knowledge: that we want to treat any patient with an infectious disease as soon as possible," said Derwand. "What differentiates this study is that patients were prescribed these medications early, in the outpatient setting.
...
"This study suggests that when taken early and together with zinc and azithromycin, this cost-effective drug can be part of the solution to the pandemic."

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1281 on: July 20, 2020, 11:11:14 AM »
Situation Report 9: COVID-19 transmission across Washington State

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Results as of July 17 2020 5 p.m. Incidence data through July 02 2020.

Summary and highlights

This situation report shows that Washington State as a whole is in an explosive situation. Transmission continues to increase or accelerate across most of Washington state and will continue to do so unless concrete steps are taken to stop the spread. All indicators of the extent of viral spread are higher than last week with the exception of Yakima. In both eastern and western Washington cases are increasing fastest among 20-29 year olds and are also growing in both younger and older age groups around them. There is no progress to zero; the level of daily new cases is substantially higher than the state’s previous peak in March.

Re for western Washington is similar to our previous report, likely between 1.34 and 1.73, with best estimate 1.54. For eastern Washington Re is higher but statistically similar to last week’s report, likely between 1.29 and 1.53, with best estimate 1.41. In Yakima the estimated Re is likely between 0.65 and 1.22 with best estimate 0.94. Yakima’s previously sharp turnaround appears to be plateauing. Spokane’s exponential growth shows no signs of slowing.

Hospitalization rates are just starting to increase in western WA and continue to grow across all age groups in eastern WA. As transmission moves from younger adults into older more vulnerable populations, we expect new hospitalizations and eventually deaths to trend up across the state.

Implications for public health practice

Washington State is in the early stages of an exponential statewide outbreak that has zero chance of being reversed without changes to our collective behavior and policies to support that change. If current trends continue, we expect that schools will not be able to reopen safely in the fall. Further transmission control will require enhanced compliance with masking and distancing policies and further restricting gatherings that likely fuel virus spread. This is a matter of utmost urgency as we have seen from the beginning of the pandemic that measures enacted sooner have vastly greater efficacy.

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1282 on: July 20, 2020, 01:49:09 PM »
Reuters, 7/20/20: Wave of coronavirus study results raise hope for vaccines

Quote
Early data from trials of three potential coronavirus vaccines released on Monday, including a closely-watched candidate from Oxford University, increased confidence that a vaccine can train the immune system to recognize and fight COVID-19 without serious side effects.

Whether any of these efforts will result in a safe and effective vaccine capable of protecting billions of people and ending the global pandemic is still far from clear. All will require much larger studies to prove they can prevent infection with the virus. ...

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1283 on: July 20, 2020, 02:54:45 PM »
It is crazy that Jack has to count for people now:

https://m.facebook.com/jack.spirko/videos/10220240673862080/

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1284 on: July 21, 2020, 07:15:21 AM »
There is a tsunami of MD/PhDs addressing the poorly designed tests of hydroxychloroquine/other treatments and the misinterpretation of data.  Very good to see calls for propper experimental science.  Example:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2023617
Correspondence
Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19



To the Editor

The window for postexposure prophylaxis against Covid-19 is narrow.1-3 Therapy that is initiated up to 4 days after exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is early treatment, not postexposure prophylaxis. The trial described in the article by Boulware et al. (published online on June 3 at NEJM.org)4 was therefore largely about the prevention of symptoms in persons who may already have been infected. The trial was designed to detect a 50% relative reduction in new cases of symptomatic Covid-19; this estimate was overly optimistic. The trial was not powered to detect an important, but lesser reduction. Regardless, the authors found a nonsignificant (P=0.35) absolute difference of −2.4 percentage points (a 17% relative reduction) in the incidence of new symptomatic illness compatible with Covid-19 between the percentage of participants who received hydroxychloroquine within 4 days after exposure and those who received placebo. The upper boundary of the 95% confidence interval was an absolute reduction of approximately 7 percentage points (a relative reduction of approximately 50%), which was the investigators’ prespecified target effect size.

We can draw three conclusions. First, hydroxychloroquine might be effective in early treatment, since the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Second, a larger trial involving participants with a virologic diagnosis should be conducted to detect a meaningful early treatment effect (e.g., a trial involving 8000 participants could detect a reduction in the incidence of symptomatic Covid-19 from 15.0% to 12.5%). Third, other trials examining preexposure prophylaxis and early postexposure prophylaxis should be considered.

Michael S. Avidan, M.B., B.Ch.
Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO

Hakim-Moulay Dehbi, Ph.D.
University College London, London, United Kingdom

Sinead Delany-Moretlwe, M.B., B.Ch., Ph.D.
University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

No potential conflict of interest relevant to this letter was reported.

This letter was published on July 15, 2020, at NEJM.org.

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    Linton NM, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, et al. Incubation period and other epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: a statistical analysis of publicly available case data. J Clin Med 2020;9:538-538.
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    Boulware DR, Pullen MF, Bangdiwala AS, et al. A randomized trial of hydroxychloroquine as postexposure prophylaxis for Covid-19. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2016638.
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To the Editor

The primary results of the trial conducted by Boulware et al. were nonsignificant, and the trial was interpreted as negative. A few points warrant careful consideration. First, the reverse fragility index was only 5 (i.e., 5 events would have to change in order for the primary end point to move from nonsignificant to significant). The reverse fragility quotient (the reverse fragility index divided by the sample size) was 0.006, which indicates that the nonsignificance of the results was contingent on only 0.6 events per 100 participants. Second, the absolute risk reduction was 2.4 percentage points. This magnitude of absolute risk reduction is similar to that in other positive trials.1,2 The number needed to treat was 42, which may be acceptable considering the current escalating pandemic. Third, the trial was powered to detect a 50% relative reduction in new symptomatic infections, which is an extraordinary robust estimate. Therefore, in accordance with the guidelines of the Journal and the American Statistical Association, it is critical to not view results in a dichotomized manner on the basis of P values, especially when the results are fragile, the trial is underpowered, and other statistical measures suggest a possible benefit with no signal for harm.3,4

Muhammad-Shahzeb Khan, M.D.
Cook County Hospital, Chicago, IL

Javed Butler, M.D., M.P.H.
University of Mississippi, Jackson, MS
jbutler4@umc.edu

Dr. Butler reports receiving consulting fees from Abbott, Adrenomed, Amgen, Array BioPharma, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, CVRx, G3 Pharmaceuticals, Impulse Dynamics, Innolife, Janssen, LivaNova, Luitpold Pharmaceuticals, Medtronic, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Relypsa, Roche, V-Wave, and Vifor Pharma. No other potential conflict of interest relevant to this letter was reported.

This letter was published on July 15, 2020, at NEJM.org.

    1.
    Tavazzi L, Maggioni AP, Marchioli R, et al. Effect of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in patients with chronic heart failure (the GISSI-HF trial): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Lancet 2008;372:1223-1230.
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To the Editor

The trial by Boulware et al. that showed ineffectiveness of hydroxychloroquine for prevention of Covid-19 nevertheless reestablished the safety of hydroxychloroquine in otherwise healthy persons. The primary conclusions of the trial regarding the ineffectiveness of hydroxychloroquine to protect against Covid-19 rely heavily on the incidence of new illness compatible with Covid-19 (reported in 11.8% of the participants in the hydroxychloroquine group and 14.3% of those in the placebo group) rather than on laboratory-confirmed diagnoses (in only 2.7% and 2.2% of the participants, respectively). Did the participants who had symptoms compatible with Covid-19 also undergo laboratory testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection? It would be important for all 821 asymptomatic participants with high-risk exposure who were enrolled in the trial to undergo testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection before and after the administration of hydroxychloroquine.1

Asymptomatic persons with Covid-19 pose a considerable challenge with respect to the hazard of exposure and community spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection.2 The classification and identification of Covid-19–positive persons on the basis of symptoms may be misleading because of the variable and overlapping symptoms of the disease.3 The results of the trial conducted by Boulware et al. with respect to the moderate risk of Covid-19 and the low incidence of hospitalizations in a population with high-risk exposure to SARS-CoV-2 are important for disease management.4

Babu L. Tekwani, Ph.D.
Southern Research, Birmingham, AL
btekwani@southernresearch.org

Dr. Tekwani reports receiving support to his laboratory from the collaborative Antiviral Drug Discovery and Development Center, which is led by the University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Medicine and funded by a Centers of Excellence for Translational Research grant (U19 AI142759) from the NIAID. No other potential conflict of interest relevant to this letter was reported.

This letter was published on July 15, 2020, at NEJM.org.

The opinions expressed in this letter are the responsibility of author and do not represent the official views of Southern Research, the University of Alabama at Birmingham, or the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1285 on: July 21, 2020, 09:13:34 PM »
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8470843/The-average-Covid-19-victim-OLDER-age-people-usually-die-Scotland.html
Revealed: Average age of Covid-19 victims is OLDER than life expectancy in Scotland as stark figures show 'it is predominantly a disease that strikes the elderly'


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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1286 on: July 23, 2020, 09:37:47 PM »
7/23/20: Why hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine don’t block coronavirus infection of human lung cells

Quote
A paper came out in Nature on July 22 that further underscores earlier studies that show that neither the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine nor chloroquine prevents SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes COVID-19 – from replicating in lung cells. ...

Depending on the cell type, some, like kidney cells, need an enzyme called cathepsin L for the virus to successfully infect them. In lung cells, however, an enzyme called TMPRSS2 (on the cell surface) is necessary. ...

In the green monkey kidney cells, both hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine decrease the acidity, which then disables the cathepsin L enzyme, blocking the virus from infecting the monkey cells. In human lung cells, which have very low levels of cathepsin L enzyme, the virus uses the enzyme TMPRSS2 to enter the cell. But because that enzyme is not controlled by acidity, neither HCQ and CQ can block the SARS-CoV-2 from infecting the lungs or stop the virus from replicating. ...

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1287 on: July 23, 2020, 10:26:16 PM »
Cumulative Cases/Deaths per Million Population

Nation/State         Cases/mil Deaths/mil
Peru ^x111,246535
Chile ^x117,712462
US12,593445
Brazil10,768396
Mexico2,873325
Panama ^x113,156 280
Canada  2,984235
--- --- ---
New Jersey 20,7191,780
New York22,4911,679
Connecticut 13,5281,237
Massachusetts 16,5861,229
Rhode Island  17,131945
Washington, DC16,395823
Louisiana21,866794
Michigan8,454640
Illinois 13,266 597
Maryland 13,371564
Pennsylvania 8,526560
Delaware 14,299543
Mississippi 16,146483
Indiana 8,853428
Arizona 21,012421
Georgia ^x114,748316
Colorado 7,348310
New Hampshire 4,647298
Alabama ^x315,135285
Minnesota 8,639284
New Mexico 8,662284
Ohio 6,864280
Iowa 12,885260
South Carolina ^x314,879259
Florida ^x118,152257
Virginia 9,518241
Nevada 12,960230
California ^x110,942208
Missouri ^x16,464198
Washington6,767195
North Carolina 10,194167
Texas ^x313,016164
Nebraska 12,313163
Kentucky 5,629153
Wisconsin 7,883151
South Dakota 9,205137
Tennessee 12,738135
Arkansas ^x112,015128
North Dakota 7,208127
Oklahoma 7,279121
Kansas 8,378111
Vermont 2,20790
Maine 2,78088
Utah 11,26083
Idaho 9,36577
Oregon 3,72565
West Virginia 3,09757
Wyoming 4,05443
Montana 2,723 40
Alaska 2,99626
Hawaii 1,05218

Still sucks in the south.  Overall deaths in the last 8 days increased by: Georgia 9%, New Mexico 11%, Mississippi 12%, California 12%, Alabama 15%, Florida 22%, Arizona 26%, Texas 31%, South Carolina 34%.

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1288 on: July 25, 2020, 05:51:25 PM »
Good and pertinent Stossel TV report:

https://youtu.be/6YpfJgVZ5ow
Doomsayers Keep Getting It Wrong

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #1289 on: July 25, 2020, 08:05:53 PM »
Jack posted this on parler: This is the mass hysteria generated by a media who puts their politics before facts. [deleted] woman is literally insane.

https://news4sanantonio.com/news/nation-world/meltdown-over-social-distancing-caught-on-camera-at-california-lake