Author Topic: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak  (Read 2640 times)

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #30 on: March 16, 2020, 02:07:58 PM »
Dow finished down 13%.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #31 on: March 16, 2020, 08:05:25 PM »
Dow finished down 13%.

And that after the Fed basically announced free money.

So the question is, are the markets "buying toilet paper" as fast as they can just because everyone else is buying at the same time, or are they buying because they expect a long-term toilet paper shortage?

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #32 on: March 16, 2020, 09:13:38 PM »
At the rate they're going to have to print money, it will be cheaper to wipe with a greenback than with toilet paper.

Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #33 on: March 17, 2020, 06:17:02 AM »
At the rate they're going to have to print money, it will be cheaper to wipe with a greenback than with toilet paper.

too bad no one has paper money...

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #34 on: March 17, 2020, 08:26:26 PM »
Cash payments to all Americans?

Didnt we try this in 2008?  As I recall people mostly just paid off debt with it and it didn't really boost economic activity much.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/17/816880576/white-house-expected-to-provide-updates-on-coronavirus-response

I mean...if they insist I suppose I will buy a gun or something.  Far be it from me to be selfish or unpatriotic...

Offline surfivor

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #35 on: March 17, 2020, 09:01:08 PM »
There's all kinds of articles saying the UK needs to shut down for 18 months. That seems like an awfully long time. I had heard claims they may want to do that in the US but I have not found articles leading to that conclusion as of yet or since the last time I checked. I think people around here are expecting 3 weeks to maybe 6 but going into the summer would seem fairly drastic. I don't see how society as we know it can sustain such conditions.

 Some are saying China is kind of on the way to being back to normal but I am not sure about that.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8120501/Draconian-shutdown-measures-18-MONTHS-coronavirus-report-warns.html

Coronavirus 'shutdown' could last 18 months: Another warning from the experts who triggered Boris Johnson U-turn by telling him 250,000 could die
Team of experts at Imperial College London made sobering predictions in a report to advise Government

==============

I had also heard that seasonal flu kills half a million people or more every year which is a lot higher than I had imagined. Coronovirus is currently at 8,000 deaths.

Someone also said that the 3.4% death rate by coronavirus is arrived at by mostly counting the people who where very sick and went to the hospital. Many people probably got sick and recovered and never reported it to anyone and the claim is they where never counted.

 I am not exactly sure if that means anything or not but it's what some people have argued

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a new estimate that's higher than the previous one of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.

« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 09:29:55 PM by surfivor »

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #36 on: March 19, 2020, 05:48:32 PM »
Strong recovery in bitcoin today.

Offline theBINKYhunter

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #37 on: March 19, 2020, 10:28:50 PM »
Legit question: Should I be educating myself about the prospects of moving 401k investments into a money market fund or am I too late to do anything? My personal 401k isn't huge at the new job but my MIL is taking a bath in the accounts she inherited and is freaking out. I realize freaking out is a bad time to do anything so I'm very cautiously attempting to offer help. My understanding is Money Market is the best Cash Equivalent you can get in most 401ks.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #38 on: March 19, 2020, 11:18:47 PM »
Legit question: Should I be educating myself about the prospects of moving 401k investments into a money market fund or am I too late to do anything? My personal 401k isn't huge at the new job but my MIL is taking a bath in the accounts she inherited and is freaking out. I realize freaking out is a bad time to do anything so I'm very cautiously attempting to offer help. My understanding is Money Market is the best Cash Equivalent you can get in most 401ks.

"Money Market" is a broad term encompassing the wide variety of short term, liquid assets. Money Market funds can hold a combination of private as well as local, state, and federal investment offerings; for example commercial paper, certificates of deposit, short term mortgages, treasury bills, and many others.  So what you need to aalso decide is what type of money market fund you are interested in.

For example, a fund like the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX) invests in US Federal securities.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMFXX

And one like Vanguard Municipal Money Market Fund (VMSXX) invests in Municipal level government securities.

If you are looking for as safe of a cash equivalent as possible, then you would choose one that invests in US Federal securities over local or private ones. But they often arent an option in 401Ks.

An alternative to this is a short-term US Treasury fund.  Something like VFISX. Vanguard Short Term Treasury Fund.  https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VFISX.  This type of index fund serves the same purpose and is more likely to be an option in your 401K than a momey market fund which invests only in federal securities.

Offline theBINKYhunter

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #39 on: March 20, 2020, 01:50:23 AM »
I was looking at my plan earlier when I posted this. VMFXX is an option that I have to invest in. It appears that's the only 'Short Term Investments' option I have. All of the options in my plan are some type of Vanguard. Then there's the smattering of 'Blended Fund Investments' and a Large/Mid/Small Cap option.

Thanks for the clarification on Money Market. I've got a lot of reading to do.

Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #40 on: March 20, 2020, 07:01:51 AM »
I was looking at my plan earlier when I posted this. VMFXX is an option that I have to invest in. It appears that's the only 'Short Term Investments' option I have. All of the options in my plan are some type of Vanguard. Then there's the smattering of 'Blended Fund Investments' and a Large/Mid/Small Cap option.

Thanks for the clarification on Money Market. I've got a lot of reading to do.

David had a thread about investing for dummies... took me looking through 5 pages of posts.... http://thesurvivalpodcast.com/forum/index.php?topic=61339.msg729790#msg729790

I have not read back through it to see if it would help here, but it might give some ideas

Offline David in MN

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #41 on: March 20, 2020, 04:27:52 PM »
It's probably too late to actually respond to this. I really doubt the ability of the average person to respond not for lack of wisdom or financial knowledge but because the quick trades just aren't there if you're not on it almost 24/7. People like me who do it all the time made some quick money in the VIX, VXX, and ultrashort positions but most people don't play with these kind of vehicles. Not that you couldn't wrap your head around them but without the time dedicated to them it's very hard to play in that game.

On the other hand, if you want to grab your pitchfork and head to Moscow on the Potomac and tar and feather all the senators who used their insider information to sell out of positions... I'm right there with you. May they rot in Hell for putting personal wealth ahead of one single hospital bed.

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #42 on: March 20, 2020, 06:05:26 PM »
I have multiple friends and family members laid off for this.

On the positive side, the governor of the state of Colorado is now allowing the businesses still open for curbside service to serve alcohol as part of it.  So if you are going to Chilis for pick-up you can get your margarita with it.

Offline theBINKYhunter

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #43 on: March 22, 2020, 08:40:06 AM »
I'm very curious to see what is going to happen to the economy through this. People are out of work and business are out of making money (not all, but more than a little). I'm fortunate that I can work from home and my company is not impacted by this yet, and unless it gets much much worse we probably won't be. My wife is also able to work as shes and RN and just accepted a job with an in home hospice agency. We know others who aren't able to work and the moment 'non essential businesses' are told to close for good we'll see a lot of people locally suffering.

My wife's friends are freaking out continually. They've got a group chat that my wife checks from time to time and I wish she wouldn't because it just works her up. Some of them can't accept factual data for what it is and continue to spread sensationalized rumors and half truths around. Apparently one of them has a family member in the financial world who is telling them to pull all of their money out of the banks to get cash. No reasoning to back it up, just to do it. I'm not calling it a bad idea, but there's not reasoning to back it up that I've heard, and I feel like it's just them being afraid and wanting to have control over something (like the run on TP).

Edit to clarify:
I can understand if they were talking about investment accounts because of market fluctuations like my post asked a couple prior to this, but I can't see a reason to dump your savings account and shove it in your pillow since that's not going to fluctuate. The problem is there was no clarification or details given, which lends me to lean more towards the 'fear mongering' explanation than something that was reasonable and thought out.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 08:45:17 AM by theBINKYhunter »

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #44 on: March 22, 2020, 09:14:14 AM »
I'm very curious to see what is going to happen to the economy through this. People are out of work and business are out of making money (not all, but more than a little). I'm fortunate that I can work from home and my company is not impacted by this yet, and unless it gets much much worse we probably won't be. My wife is also able to work as shes and RN and just accepted a job with an in home hospice agency. We know others who aren't able to work and the moment 'non essential businesses' are told to close for good we'll see a lot of people locally suffering.

My wife's friends are freaking out continually. They've got a group chat that my wife checks from time to time and I wish she wouldn't because it just works her up. Some of them can't accept factual data for what it is and continue to spread sensationalized rumors and half truths around. Apparently one of them has a family member in the financial world who is telling them to pull all of their money out of the banks to get cash. No reasoning to back it up, just to do it. I'm not calling it a bad idea, but there's not reasoning to back it up that I've heard, and I feel like it's just them being afraid and wanting to have control over something (like the run on TP).

Edit to clarify:
I can understand if they were talking about investment accounts because of market fluctuations like my post asked a couple prior to this, but I can't see a reason to dump your savings account and shove it in your pillow since that's not going to fluctuate. The problem is there was no clarification or details given, which lends me to lean more towards the 'fear mongering' explanation than something that was reasonable and thought out.

Yeah, its bizarre.  People who are relatively stable on liquid assets, some are freaking and trying to pull long term investments and not only convert to cash but to physical cash.  But some of the articles telling people not to do it could be read as saying people should not be pulling substantial cash for contingencies.  People who dont have a decent chunk of their monthly retail expenses (or more) in cash at home are wrong and need to fix themselves...but people dipping into funds they didnt plan on touching for decades yet who are not otherwise hurting financially are fools.

Offline David in MN

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #45 on: March 25, 2020, 03:57:05 PM »
3 month government bond yields fell to a negative interest rate. Wall Street is lining up to lose money provided it's predictable.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #46 on: March 25, 2020, 09:25:09 PM »
my county and at least one other by us has declared that no one can be evicted for failure to pay rent.  They would love it if banks would be as nice to landlords who need to pay mortgages and loans, but so far, no indication that will happen.  Our county property tax is due early April, and I also notice that they are not given deference on that.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #47 on: March 25, 2020, 09:37:40 PM »
I think Newsom announced today there was some kind of deal with several large banks to defer mortgage payments of Californians who could adequately prove COVID-19 hardship.


I've got a huge pile of taxes (property, state, federal, and estimated) all coming due next month and finally just decided to bite the bullet and pay them on time rather than deferring.


A million Californian's have filed for unemployment in the last two weeks.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #48 on: March 25, 2020, 10:53:02 PM »
I paid my property tax early in case I get sick, would hate to have it get late payments while I was in the hospital or something, and I had already set the money aside.

But, it will be very hard on landlords not receiving rent to pay the kinds of property taxes we have here in California if they are low on rental income.  Luckily this property tax payment due now should have had the money set aside from previous months income, as it is basically due now

Rentals are very common here, lots of people have small rentals on their property or converted garages, etc..., helping make payments and taxes on their homes. 

One such person I know wondered, well, even if the 1st mortgage was deferred, what about the 2nd ?  For many that 2nd mortgage, used to build the rental, well that needs to get paid too.

Yeah, my area has been decimated for many categories of jobs.  Higher education and tourism were paying the bills for most, in one way or the other. But, the small business owner who has had to close doors on the new bar, whose house has the rental in what was once the garage trying to pay the first and 2nd mortgage on a 900k 2 bedroom bugalow with a mortgaged garage conversion,  that loss of rental income from the laid off waiter or what have you is just the last straw.  The property taxes alone on that place ....
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 11:13:29 PM by mountainmoma »

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #49 on: March 25, 2020, 11:45:25 PM »
This is all real connected.  Sure, there are landlords in that business of being a landlord, but around here that is not the main market, so much of the rental market is "granny units" or new younger homeowners that havent had kids yet renting out rooms.  Other people have air b n bs at their place or hip camping, etc...

 This is very common.  Not "rich" landlords, but just how many people make this kind of expensive housing market work.  All of these regular people will now be in financial straits even if they have not lost their primary income But, in addition, many will have lost one or both persons income, most households are two income households.  It isnt just some renters may not have money to pay, it is also that there is alot of turnover in the housing market.  Seasonal tourism.  College scheduales. And all of that is gone or up in the air.  No one can plan. No one is going to enter a lease, for housing or business.

I just think we are going to be going into a depression, and I do not see how helicopter money is going to stop that.  Unless this is over very fast. 

Next will be trades people also not hired and the repairs not done. Also, who is going to buy the art ?

The only ones with the cush guaranteed incomes and pensions are public employees,government and education, and I do hope that other people besides me wake up soon and notice.  You just cant keep having such a disparity.  I went to call my congresspersons office today, and I get a message saying they cant answer their phones due to the virus.  Well, a private company would have those calls routed to an employees home to talk to clients if that employee was working at home.  These people are working at home but no longer have to do as much work.  Wether they do work or not, they are at home being paid.

Yes, I see all the people not working, and of course unemployment claims up.  And all the shadow income ( resellers at flea markets and online, illegal rental income, drugs, undeclared handyman and groundskeeping and cleaning, etc...) dried up as well, that doesnt get unemployment, but their bills will also be there. 

 Even the people who work for some large company that are now doing good, they get to work remotely and draw pay.  But, if the rest aren't going to be buying, the layoffs will radiate outwards.

Offline theBINKYhunter

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #50 on: March 26, 2020, 08:09:31 AM »
I was reading that if you're considering requesting deferment you need to look at what will happen after the period is over. One of the scarier things could be a loan modification would could mean all sorts of things, like a worse interest rate or a balloon payment for everything that was deferred. Other considerations would be if interest still accrued, or if the deferred payments were just added on to the back end of the loan.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #51 on: March 26, 2020, 08:48:15 AM »
3.3 million filed for unemployment last week in the US.  Previous record was just under 700k set in 1982.

The true number is quite a bit higher because many workers aren’t eligible for unemployment.

At least a million more are anticipated to file this week.

Offline suzysurvivor

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #52 on: March 26, 2020, 09:00:07 AM »
for several years, financial geniuses who LOOOOOVE Disneyworld have advised folks to put their vacation savings into Disney gift cards--coz you save a WHOLE 5%.  (not to say saving a buck is a bad thing for sure)  And I keep tellin 'em, 'don't put that money on a gift card you can only spend in one place.  What if something happens and you need that money?'

Oh, i have been cursed and vilified for suggesting this.  They are, BY GOD, going to Disneyworld.

Except now they aren't.  And one girl on FB posted yesterday:  'i paid for $23,000 worth of cruises with gift cards.  Now I need the money back. Please tell me they won't just put it back on a gift card'.  Oh, but, yes, they will.

Tried to tell the idiots.

Offline Stwood

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #53 on: March 26, 2020, 09:03:14 AM »
3.3 million filed for unemployment last week in the US.  Previous record was just under 700k set in 1982.

The true number is quite a bit higher because many workers aren’t eligible for unemployment.

At least a million more are anticipated to file this week.

Wheew. That ought to break the states.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #54 on: March 26, 2020, 09:25:19 AM »
WaPo (no paywall):  Calculate how much you’ll get from the $1,200 (or more) coronavirus checks

Quote
Bipartisan legislation passed by the Senate on Wednesday evening — which still must be passed by the House — would provide $1,200 payments to adults with annual incomes up to $75,000, plus another $500 per child. Some Americans earning more over $75,000 would also receive money if they meet certain qualifications outlined below. For most Americans, the money is likely to arrive in April via direct deposit. Mailed checks may take longer.

Offline theBINKYhunter

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #55 on: March 26, 2020, 09:34:49 AM »
I guess ours will stay in savings until needed.

Interesting bit about future tax implications. Seems like only rare edge cases will have to pay back a portion of it, and if you find yourself in that situation you're probably not terribly upset because it means you're making more money.

Quote
Are the checks taxable? No, they are not taxable. The only catch is that technically a person’s 2020 income is what qualifies them for the payment. Since no one knows their total 2020 income yet, the government is using tax returns from 2019 and 2018 to figure out who qualifies for a check. It is possible that someone may have to pay back some of the money if his or her income this year turns out to be significantly more than it was in 2019 or 2018. That’s expected to be a relatively small share of people, and the money would not have to be paid back until April 15, 2021.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #56 on: March 26, 2020, 10:32:11 AM »
WaPo (no paywall):  Calculate how much you’ll get from the $1,200 (or more) coronavirus checks


This will not apply to so, so many people.  Which is why aid that the county hands out is so important, but there is only so much food that people need.  No-one will go hungery in this county, that isnt the issue, it is the loans, rents, mortages, co-pays, and other expenses.  We hand out food all over the place.  Homeless hot meals, food giveaways normally and now schools of course giving away just a ton of food daily for kids whose familys drive by, that is in addition to the food stamps they are getting.  The other food giveaways do not care or check on income, as the only way a family is on food stamps out here is they are homeless or not declaring income, so many people can be house-poor, meaning after paying 60% and up of income to rent or mortgage there is more month than money.

People that earn to little to pay taxes will not get anything, last I heard.  The devil is in the details.   

And, I dont think this is a federal problem, it is a state or county problem, the counties should know what is what and who will need help. How the counties could ever give the help is another matter.  I think maybe thru the unemployment system with different emergency rules and interviews locally.

For example, lose your rental income, no compensation because either it wasnt declared or the amount netted after expenses wasnt enough to get over the standard deduction amount so you filed no income tax.  Because your social security check is also not on the tax form.  This is common. That's how many senior citizens out here make expenses.

Alot of people work under the table, too, at least for part of income . Not saying they should, but it is not uncommon.  Usually it is to keep benefits, like state healthcare or subsidized childcare. And, I disagree with that, but I have heard about it.  I told a handyman last month, as I handed him a benjamin, " you know, if you dont declare or declare enough you are not going to get a very big social security check later as it is calculated by what you pay into it "  he sees that, for the moment at least , he will pay for this later in his future lifestyle.  But he has kids now.


Offline Prepper456

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #57 on: March 26, 2020, 11:49:50 AM »

This will not apply to so, so many people.  Which is why aid that the county hands out is so important, but there is only so much food that people need.

isn't that socialism?

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #58 on: March 26, 2020, 12:04:55 PM »
isn't that socialism?

Not sure what you are referring to

temporary help due to unprecendented need due to the state government cutting off peoples livelyhood ( not judging if that is or is not needed to slow virus transmission down) is not socialism.  Now, the details of what our government is wanting to do to give money to corporations begins to look like facism.

The normal food giveaways in this county ?  Well, if people want to donate money or stores and farms want to donate excess food,  that just sounds like charity and not socialism. 

Other aid that counties could hand out, like money, relief for those who dont get or dont get enough unemployment  -- that would be temporary, and I have not heard that they have money to do so, but if they did, that is just a temporary payment to ensure welfare and not losing housing. 

Dont get me wrong, there are plenty out here who think socialism sounds good  --- but I am not sure what  post you feel is socialism. 
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 12:30:37 PM by mountainmoma »

Offline Chemsoldier

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Re: Economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
« Reply #59 on: March 26, 2020, 12:09:21 PM »

People that earn to little to pay taxes will not get anything, last I heard.  The devil is in the details.   



From the Washpost article linked (it has been un-paywalled)

"What about people on Social Security? People on Social Security are eligible to receive the coronavirus relief payment as long as their total income does not exceed the limit. Low-income Americans on Social Security do not need to file a tax return. As long as they received an SSA-1099 form (the Social Security benefit statement), the federal government will be able to send them a payment via the usual way they get their Social Security payment. Retirees and people on disability are both eligible for the special payment. "

"Who won’t get a check? The main people excluded from receiving a payment are the wealthy, “nonresident aliens” (i.e., foreigners who do not hold a green card) and “dependents” who can be claimed on someone else’s tax return."

"Are the checks taxable? No, they are not taxable. The only catch is that technically a person’s 2020 income is what qualifies them for the payment. Since no one knows their total 2020 income yet, the government is using tax returns from 2019 and 2018 to figure out who qualifies for a check. It is possible that someone may have to pay back some of the money if his or her income this year turns out to be significantly more than it was in 2019 or 2018. That’s expected to be a relatively small share of people, and the money would not have to be paid back until April 15, 2021. "