Author Topic: The Price of Suppresors if Bill Passes?  (Read 1396 times)

Offline Black November

  • Survivalist Mentor
  • *****
  • Posts: 615
  • Karma: 72
  • Lifetime MSB & PermaEthos Founding Member
The Price of Suppresors if Bill Passes?
« on: March 14, 2017, 04:22:26 PM »
If the suppressor bill (HR 367 - Hearing Protection Act of 2017) eventually passes, and a $200 tax stamp is no longer needed, what will it do to the price of suppressors?

Price Increase - High customer demand for limited supply
Price Decrease - Companies like Ruger could mass produce millions for a fraction of the cost and sell them inexpensively.
Stays the Same- The market price has already been established, and making a decent suppressor costs a lot to make.

Also availability, will it be possible to buy a suppressor, or will they be back ordered til next year. (like .22 ammo was)

Thoughts & predictions? 

Offline Smurf Hunter

  • Survival Veteran
  • ********
  • Posts: 7008
  • Karma: 329
Re: The Price of Suppresors if Bill Passes?
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2017, 04:43:25 PM »
I've considered this quite a bit.  I think I have it.


First 6 months:
Initially there will be short supply.  SilencerCo and the other competitors were only tooled up for a very small niche market.

First 12 months: 
New players enter the market.  Likely a combination of 2nd tier producers and existing gun industry brands (magpul, Ruger, etc.)
DIY kits become a cottage industry.  Even homemade cans that are half as "good" as the ones in 2016 are desirable, as they can be made for lunch money at the hardware store

18-24 months
Suppressors are a major accessory category, like detachable magazines.  Many more pistols and rifles are sold with threaded muzzles as standard.
Cabela's and similar retailers will sell them on end-caps like magazines.  I predict the same brands that make "large capacity"  magazines will attempt to enter this segment.

24 months +
Special edition models with integral suppressors, or other purposed designed systems come available.

So aside from the first couple months when the world is in shock, the price will steadily decrease.  That said, the huge caveat may be that the price of today's current suppressor manufacturers and models may remain high for some time.  I have no inside knowledge to predict how easily/quickly the current manufacturers can tool up.

Further, the idea of disposable suppressor is likely.  Today, that $200 tax stamp forces all sorts of complex design constraints.  If instead you could spend $20 and get one that was good for 500 rounds, that might be an alternative that has lower design R&D.

In summary, I think the top tear tactical crowd may continue to use the boutique brands of today, but without the NFA restrictions, a tsunami of homebrew and cheap imitators will flood the market.  This will force some of the old school manufacturers out of business.

Offline never_retreat

  • Survivalist Mentor
  • *****
  • Posts: 923
  • Karma: 33
  • I am the Great Cornholio I need TP for my bunghole
Re: The Price of Suppresors if Bill Passes?
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2017, 05:27:47 PM »
I've considered this quite a bit.  I think I have it.


First 6 months:
Initially there will be short supply.  SilencerCo and the other competitors were only tooled up for a very small niche market.

First 12 months: 
New players enter the market.  Likely a combination of 2nd tier producers and existing gun industry brands (magpul, Ruger, etc.)
DIY kits become a cottage industry.  Even homemade cans that are half as "good" as the ones in 2016 are desirable, as they can be made for lunch money at the hardware store

18-24 months
Suppressors are a major accessory category, like detachable magazines.  Many more pistols and rifles are sold with threaded muzzles as standard.
Cabela's and similar retailers will sell them on end-caps like magazines.  I predict the same brands that make "large capacity"  magazines will attempt to enter this segment.

24 months +
Special edition models with integral suppressors, or other purposed designed systems come available.

So aside from the first couple months when the world is in shock, the price will steadily decrease.  That said, the huge caveat may be that the price of today's current suppressor manufacturers and models may remain high for some time.  I have no inside knowledge to predict how easily/quickly the current manufacturers can tool up.

Further, the idea of disposable suppressor is likely.  Today, that $200 tax stamp forces all sorts of complex design constraints.  If instead you could spend $20 and get one that was good for 500 rounds, that might be an alternative that has lower design R&D.

In summary, I think the top tear tactical crowd may continue to use the boutique brands of today, but without the NFA restrictions, a tsunami of homebrew and cheap imitators will flood the market.  This will force some of the old school manufacturers out of business.

I would agree with most of that. One variable left out is if they can be imported easily. If so then expect to see Chinese built units in bulk on the shelves at wallmart.

Offline Smurf Hunter

  • Survival Veteran
  • ********
  • Posts: 7008
  • Karma: 329
Re: The Price of Suppresors if Bill Passes?
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2017, 09:37:55 AM »
I would agree with most of that. One variable left out is if they can be imported easily. If so then expect to see Chinese built units in bulk on the shelves at wallmart.

Good point. 
The regulatory landscape remains unknown.  My understanding is they'd be treated like "regular" firearms, with a 4473 form at the gun shop.
Assuming non-NFA cans are like firearms, that would mean we could build them for personal use, but not sell them (at least not easily).
Eventually someone will bring up the "80%" build question, and some arbitrary ruling could be made.

Personally, I would experiment with home brew solutions.  Oil filters, etc.  If there's no legal risk - why wouldn't I?