Author Topic: How close are we to SHTF?  (Read 155610 times)

Offline TexGuy

  • Sometimes posts while drunk.
  • Survivalist Mentor
  • *****
  • Posts: 319
  • Karma: 12
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #60 on: February 09, 2011, 07:49:31 PM »
Dark stuff happening or not, endurance is right, don't listen to those with less than 50 posts!   :excited:

Offline MacReady

  • Survivor
  • ***
  • Posts: 183
  • Karma: 9
  • Dolly Sods, WV Oct '09
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #61 on: February 09, 2011, 08:55:37 PM »
I once heard that the mark of most wise prophets, seers and prognosticators of doom is three starts in perfect alignment and 100 posts...  Heed their warning.

Offline ClarkB

  • Senior Survivalist
  • ****
  • Posts: 209
  • Karma: 16
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #62 on: February 09, 2011, 09:01:59 PM »
SHTF is situational.  That is not what the original poster really meant.  The End Of the World As We Know It is what the original poster was really refering to.

We are on the cusp of TEOTWAWKI ... NOW.

We are presently on the "bumpy plateau of post peak oil".  "The Energy Return On Investment", or EROI, is on a rapid slide to 1:1.  That is, it will soon take one gallon of oil worth of energy to extract one gallon of oil from the environment.  No net energy gain from oil.  There is absolutely no substitute for oil in any foreseeable scenario.

3 to 4 billion people are alive today due to the benefits of oil.  The oil will be effectively gone from the global market within 2 to 15 years, with the middle ground time frame most likely - within 5 years, plus or minus.

The laws of physics are immutable.

You had best get control of enough land and water to support you and your loved ones.
You had better be prepared to defend that land from all comers.  That means AK47s, ARs, and lots of ammo.  You may never need it; or you might, if several pickup trucks of thugs show up at your perimeter to help themselves to what they want.

If you don't think that this is a real threat, then you need to consider what people will do when they or their kids haven't eaten in several days, and there is no food coming.  You won't want to be in downtown L.A., Chicago, New York, Miami, etc.

At some point the power WILL NOT be coming back on, and the industrial food won't be getting planted, harvested, or transported.  AT ALL.  EVER.  PERIOD.

Please review these materials, then get back to this thread with your thoughts:

Chris Martensons "Crash Course" is a concise explanation of EXACTLY where we are in history -
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-1-three-beliefs

Learn more about Peak Oil here -
http://www.dieoff.org/

We are at a juncture in history that is probably the biggest event in Mankind's history.
Bigger that the discovery of fire, than the advent of agriculture, than the ice age, than anything.

The laws of energetics and physics are immutable.  They predict the death of about 3 to 5 billion people in the first half of this century; but more likely within the first quarter century, or sooner.

Economic foibles, political/religious strife, even the Yellow Stone caldera; are all small events compared to Peak Oil.  Throw in the bio-collapse of the ecosystem, climate change, and a spurious geologic event such as the caldera erupting; and it is all over for complex human society.

It is as real as real can be.  All other potential threat concerns are a distraction while Peak Oil settles in for the big die-off.  In fact, they are symptoms and side effects of post-Peak Oil being reached.

I don't agree with those who think that the collapse will not be global, or that TEOTWAWKI is unlikely.

btw - I have over 200 posts and have been a member for two and half years.  I have also studied peak oil, ecosystems, and human communities for most of my life due to personal interest, and as a result of my profession (environmental planner).  In the past I have been a grad student of Dr. Charles Hall, who is a world authority on EROI, peak oil, and ecosystems dynamics.  What is coming is very real.  It is also very deadly.  We cannot avoid it, but we can prepare and adapt.

donaldj had it about right when he said that the timing will depend to a degree on whether Obama is reelected or not.  But it is only a time variance of a few years.  Enough time to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic, but that is about all we can do about Peak Oil.  We are experiencing its impact at this very moment - but a lot of people just don't recognize it yet.

As for prepping - more people being prepared will improve the survival rate; but consider, if all 6.5 billion people were to try to prepare then there would be a shortage of prep supplies in no time.  Sort of a gigantic run on stores of supplies, like is seen locally during a SHTF event.  Therefore, it may sound cruel, but it is a good thing that there are a lot of grasshoppers and sheeple since they don't compete for a years worth of grain, or a case of ammo, or whatever.  It is just the way it is.

Offline 12XLR8

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 50
  • Karma: 0
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #63 on: February 10, 2011, 12:08:38 AM »
 ;D How about not listening to those with less than 24 posts ::)

endurance

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #64 on: February 10, 2011, 11:31:20 AM »
Here's the problem with the question and some of the responses, the definition of SHTF is not clearly defined and putting a date on something beyond your control is prophesy, not science.

If you lose your job tomorrow, it's a SHTF situation for you, but your neighbor is uneffected.  If you get kidnapped and robbed, it's a SHTF situation for you, but not for me.  If your neighborhood gets hit with a vicious ice storm tomorrow and it takes out all the power lines and takes weeks to repair, that's a SHTF scenario for you where you live, but for a guy in Miami, it's not a problem.

If you're talking about something that's SHTF for everyone in the US or the world, that's a different level event.  That's something that's extremely hard to predict.  In 1985 if you asked most people their greatest concern it might have been nuclear war.  If you asked in 1999 it might have been Y2K.  If you asked in October 2001 it would have been terrorism.  If you ask today, it's going to be the economy or food or energy, depending on who you ask.  Most people don't even know there's a problem with food or energy.  In ten years, the odds are we'll be talking about something completely different.

While I'm not going to defend my observation, which wasn't meant as an attack, but simply an observation, I think there's a value in prepping with the focus on self-sufficiency and independence rather than being ready for what you predict will be the most likely disaster.  I've been prepping on and off for over two decades and the focus has changed, but it's very easy to drop the ball when you're focused on one event.  If you focus all your preps toward nuclear war, with the assumption that two thirds of the world's population will be wiped out and spend whatever you need to get up to speed for that disaster, you screw yourself in the event of a lay off at work because you did it all on savings and credit.  On the other hand, if you'd been focusing on improving your resiliency by increasing your savings, eliminating debt, learning to grow your own food, taking steps to improve your energy efficiency, creating redundency in your systems of support; you'd be better off whether there was a nuclear war, a lay off at work, a spike in food or energy prices, or a local disaster.

My point is, focusing on just the big, scary disaster is more likely to generate poor decision making that can actually damage your resiliency rather than improve it.  Furthermore, it's just depressing to always focus on the bad; planning for the worst, whereas creating greater food production and energy independence can be not only economically rewarding, it can be psychologically rewarding, too.  Every time I pulled a zucchini off the plant my first year I was getting positive reinforcement for my prepping. 

Just food for thought.  I don't really care if you have two posts or 1500, if what you're saying makes sense, I'll listen.  If I've had experience that contradicts what you're saying, well, I'm probably going to say something.

Offline TexGuy

  • Sometimes posts while drunk.
  • Survivalist Mentor
  • *****
  • Posts: 319
  • Karma: 12
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #65 on: February 10, 2011, 01:36:44 PM »
I don't really care if you have two posts or 1500, if what you're saying makes sense, I'll listen.  If I've had experience that contradicts what you're saying, well, I'm probably going to say something.

Great 1,000th post ... I also like the 50 karma.  ;D

Offline TexGuy

  • Sometimes posts while drunk.
  • Survivalist Mentor
  • *****
  • Posts: 319
  • Karma: 12
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #66 on: February 10, 2011, 01:46:16 PM »
I think under normal conditions just a slow decline in standards of living is what we will see ... as long as we can keep the dollar as the world reserve. Or else the decline will be faster.

I personally try to be prepared for no electricity for a decade. I just figure if I can handle that I've got everything else whipped. I do think a powerful solar storm will get us one day, it's just a matter of time. That time maybe be 500 years, who knows? So I can't really say we are on the edge of SHTF even though it seems like it all the time.

Most of our standard of living is going to go down though.








endurance

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #67 on: February 10, 2011, 02:08:44 PM »
I think under normal conditions just a slow decline in standards of living is what we will see ... as long as we can keep the dollar as the world reserve. Or else the decline will be faster.

I personally try to be prepared for no electricity for a decade. I just figure if I can handle that I've got everything else whipped. I do think a powerful solar storm will get us one day, it's just a matter of time. That time maybe be 500 years, who knows? So I can't really say we are on the edge of SHTF even though it seems like it all the time.

Most of our standard of living is going to go down though.
That's my bias, too.  I see peak oil, debt (government, municipal, private, corporate), crumbling infrastructure, food and water problems consipiring against us over the next 20 years to erode the standard of living we've created over the last century (with cheap oil, deficit spending, massive infrastructure projects, and the "green revolution").  I see some small chance some technology will save us (nuclear breeder reactors, figuring out how to tap shale oil ultra-efficiently, cold fusion, bio-engineering miracle fuel, etc.) just as likely the opposite will happen and we'll see something globally or nationally catastrophic.  Some small odds on both ends of the extremes with greater odds on just a general entropy of the system.  That does not mean I don't see some major events that will have substantial ripples, like nuclear terrorism (it only takes one in a shipping container in the port of San Diego or Houston to change the global economy in an hour), pandemic flu, global food shortage, etc..  However, I see the risk lower than local/regional disasters and the general downcycling of the US economy.

Too me, I'd rather keep some money in the bank, some cash on hand, some precious metals locked away, some food stored, some seeds cached, a fuel efficient car, a good garden, a 401k, a Roth IRA, a generator, good insulation in the house, a couple of guns, and a lot of good neighbors rather than focus on one silver bullet for a single kind of disaster.  Diversification is a piece of resiliency.  Jack's tag line says it all.  If I spend my life's savings preparing for a meteor strike that never comes, how am I going to retire?

Offline mitko69

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 21
  • Karma: 3
  • Audere Est Facere
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #68 on: February 10, 2011, 02:46:13 PM »
When something bothers me (like oil peak, economy colapse etc.) I always try to focus on what I can do about it. I can do very little to prevent any TEOTWAWKI causing event. All I can do is to improve my chances little by little by being more self-reliant and more prepared every single day. I can at least learn something - a new skill or new way to do things, and it doesn't cost much, if at all.


Offline 12XLR8

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 50
  • Karma: 0
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #69 on: February 11, 2011, 02:20:53 AM »
To me all the answers are well said. Except the part about not listening to those with less than 50 posts  ;)

Offline Halyna

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 33
  • Karma: 1
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #70 on: February 17, 2011, 01:21:34 PM »
I just now heard on Fox News that it is very possible the govt will go bankrupt on March 5 - because there is simply no money not even to borrow to pay govt employees. 
Sometime after that they expect no more welfare, unemployment or social security checks.  Now, what do you think will happen then?  Civil unrest, riots, break-ins, looting etc. Then with store shelves empty, even we will start getting desperate.
I read the posts above regarding the Book of Revelations and have studied biblical prophecy for over 30 years.  I'm sorry to say, not only in Rev, but Daniel and all the prophets....all these things are in place right now.  I believe the SHIF is very close....only within a couple of months. 
After the civil unrest comes the natural disasters that wipes out crops and global famine & starvation.
Then comes the wars.
And really, there are so many things happening in this world right now, and in the USA, like never before, how could anyone think SHIF wont happen for a long time? 

Offline 12XLR8

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 50
  • Karma: 0
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #71 on: February 18, 2011, 01:17:29 AM »
Halyna, you're right it's starting here to ( read the Public confronts Abercrombie over budget-cutting proposals ) www.honolulustaradvertiser.com   the gov. wants to cut everything

Offline Mike Honcho

  • Survivor
  • ***
  • Posts: 165
  • Karma: 18
  • Est. 1974
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #72 on: February 18, 2011, 08:20:41 AM »
I heard it on the news this AM too (briefly of course)... Might be time to break out the cache of ammo and tunafish soon!

Offline wyomiles

  • Survivor
  • ***
  • Posts: 148
  • Karma: 4
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #73 on: February 18, 2011, 11:09:45 AM »
From Bloomberg news Feb 14 2011

"Barack Obama may lose the advantage of low borrowing costs as the U.S. Treasury Department says what it pays to service the national debt is poised to triple amid record budget deficits.

Interest expense will rise to 3.1 percent of gross domestic product by 2016, from 1.3 percent in 2010 with the government forecast to run cumulative deficits of more than $4 trillion through the end of 2015, according to page 23 of a 24-page presentation made to a 13-member committee of bond dealers and investors that meet quarterly with Treasury officials.

While some of the lowest borrowing costs on record have helped the economy recover from its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, bond yields are now rising as growth resumes. Net interest expense will triple to an all-time high of $554 billion in 2015 from $185 billion in 2010, according to the Obama administration’s adjusted 2011 budget.

“It’s a slow train wreck coming and we all know it’s going to happen,” said Bret Barker, an interest-rate analyst at Los Angeles-based TCW Group Inc., which manages about $115 billion in assets. “It’s just a question of whether we want to deal with it. There are huge structural changes that have to go on with this economy.”

The amount of marketable U.S. government debt outstanding has risen to $8.96 trillion from $5.8 trillion at the end of 2008, according to the Treasury Department. Debt-service costs will climb to 82 percent of the $757 billion shortfall projected for 2016 from about 12 percent in last year’s deficit, according to the budget projections."

Maryetta

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #74 on: February 18, 2011, 12:11:56 PM »
A great site to keep up with national and international news as it effects our government and economy is http://www.zerohedge.com
They consistently point out the government's lies and what the government and the FED is doing to not only the USA, but the world.

Thox Spuddy

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #75 on: February 18, 2011, 01:50:22 PM »
I also like newzeal.blogspot.com for an inside look at our government.

Maryetta

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #76 on: February 18, 2011, 01:58:21 PM »
I also like newzeal.blogspot.com for an inside look at our government.

I use that site too, but zerohedge.com focuses on money matters and political and presents it (with Flare) in a manner most can wrap their brain around and understand.  With what the FED is doing that matters to me alot.

endurance

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #77 on: February 18, 2011, 05:30:27 PM »
I just now heard on Fox News that it is very possible the govt will go bankrupt on March 5 - because there is simply no money not even to borrow to pay govt employees. 
Sometime after that they expect no more welfare, unemployment or social security checks.  Now, what do you think will happen then?  Civil unrest, riots, break-ins, looting etc. Then with store shelves empty, even we will start getting desperate.
I read the posts above regarding the Book of Revelations and have studied biblical prophecy for over 30 years.  I'm sorry to say, not only in Rev, but Daniel and all the prophets....all these things are in place right now.  I believe the SHIF is very close....only within a couple of months. 
After the civil unrest comes the natural disasters that wipes out crops and global famine & starvation.
Then comes the wars.
And really, there are so many things happening in this world right now, and in the USA, like never before, how could anyone think SHIF wont happen for a long time? 
I'd recommend taking a long walk or spend some time in your garden and regain some perspective.  Jack did a recent piece on this http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/monetary-myths-and-the-debt-ceiling.  It's all political theater.  The US is not going to suddenly default on their debt, stop paying welfare, or stop paying government employees.  Worst case scenario there will be a two week furlough for non-essential government workers as more political theater, but they're not going to create rioting in the streets.

Prepare for a long haul, stay out of debt, keep yourself financially nimble by keeping good reserves, and you should be just fine.  Panicking to prepare for riots in the streets and racking up $10k of credit card debt to go buy survival widgets isn't going to save you; it just makes you a debt slave, right where the world banks would like to see you.

Offline Heavy G

  • Distorting the Space-Time Continuum
  • Moderator On Leave
  • Survival Veteran
  • *
  • Posts: 6779
  • Karma: 310
  • A misfit ant in a grasshopper world.
    • 299 Days
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #78 on: February 18, 2011, 06:48:09 PM »
There’s an old adage on this theme which goes something like this:

"When change is likely to take place it usually takes a lot longer to kick off than one thinks, but when things do start changing it takes place much quicker than one expected."


+1 JiB.  Exactly what I think is happening.

I think a major bad time is coming. I think it will be like Russia in the early 1990s.

I don't know what will trigger it. There are all the weaknesses out there that everyone has mentioned.  Debt is the main weakness.

But the biggest threat, as I see it, is that almost no one in America knows how to take care of themselves.  I hardly do, but I'm ahead of 95% of Americans when it comes to taking care of me and my family. 

Grasshoppers flipping out--I mean actually going insane and demanding all their stuff--is what I think will cause the most problems.  Again, I don't know what exactly will cause the crisis but the reaction of 95% of the population who are totally unprepared will be the most destructive thing.

The Russians handled their 90s hyper inflation and corruption fairly well.  They were used to it.  We're not.  We have much farther to fall as one of you said. 
« Last Edit: February 18, 2011, 07:07:48 PM by Heavy G »

Thox Spuddy

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #79 on: February 18, 2011, 07:41:36 PM »
The vast majority is under the stupor of the normal bias syndrome. If the wheels come off the cart we will see panic on a grand scale.

Offline Heavy G

  • Distorting the Space-Time Continuum
  • Moderator On Leave
  • Survival Veteran
  • *
  • Posts: 6779
  • Karma: 310
  • A misfit ant in a grasshopper world.
    • 299 Days
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #80 on: February 18, 2011, 08:18:45 PM »
So true, Thox.  I encourage everyone to search for the term "normalcy bias" on TSP.  Some really good stuff on it.

I think normalcy bias will account for the majority of all deaths in a SHTF situation. 

Offline 12XLR8

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 50
  • Karma: 0
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #81 on: February 19, 2011, 01:09:07 AM »
posted in NRA begining of shtf in hawaii ( http://www.nraila.org/Legislation/Read.aspx?id=6276 ) freedom ? ???

Offline Mars24

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 77
  • Karma: 2
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #82 on: February 19, 2011, 06:33:52 PM »
As my crystal ball has been broken for a while now, I figure it like this...

I do believe hard times are coming.  A growing population of grasshoppers with an entitlement mentality is bad news for all of us in any kind of regional or larger disruption.  Unfortunately, their overreaction to a recoverable situation could send us into the death spiral, much like a drowning man taking down his rescuer.  Or maybe FEMA will save us all  :)


 

Offline Matt.T

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 90
  • Karma: 8
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #83 on: February 19, 2011, 09:39:21 PM »
Here's the problem with the question and some of the responses, the definition of SHTF is not clearly defined and putting a date on something beyond your control is prophesy, not science.

...I think there's a value in prepping with the focus on self-sufficiency and independence rather than being ready for what you predict will be the most likely disaster.  ...if you'd been focusing on improving your resiliency by increasing your savings, eliminating debt, learning to grow your own food, taking steps to improve your energy efficiency, creating redundency in your systems of support; you'd be better off whether there was a nuclear war, a lay off at work, a spike in food or energy prices, or a local disaster.

My point is, focusing on just the big, scary disaster is more likely to generate poor decision making that can actually damage your resiliency rather than improve it.  Furthermore, it's just depressing to always focus on the bad; planning for the worst, whereas creating greater food production and energy independence can be not only economically rewarding, it can be psychologically rewarding, too.  Every time I pulled a zucchini off the plant my first year I was getting positive reinforcement for my prepping. 

Just food for thought.  I don't really care if you have two posts or 1500, if what you're saying makes sense, I'll listen.  If I've had experience that contradicts what you're saying, well, I'm probably going to say something.


By far the BEST post in this thread! And I completely agree. Making your life better today will allow you to be better prepared for tomorrow, no matter what the situation is. The key is to take control of your life, reduce your dependencies on the "systems," and increase your independence.

Offline mesta26

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 92
  • Karma: 6
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #84 on: February 20, 2011, 06:43:01 AM »
The honest answer for me is that I have no clue.  I just hope if something drastic does happen it holds off until my sons are a little older, I don't worry about my wife and I but thinking about kids in that situation makes me sad.

Offline fritz_monroe

  • The Defenestrator
  • Administrator
  • Survival Veteran
  • *******
  • Posts: 8349
  • Karma: 150
    • The Homestead Fritz
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #85 on: February 22, 2011, 01:53:49 PM »
Let's try to keep it from drifting off the topic.  I split off several posts that were about the Wisconsin workers and their protests.

nkawtg

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #86 on: February 22, 2011, 02:07:44 PM »
How close? When Top Gear does a show about TEOTWAWKI we must be close.
Top Gear Apocalypse

Offline chrisdfw

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1300
  • Karma: 63
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #87 on: February 22, 2011, 02:33:14 PM »
The answer to this question is always 3 days or less. We are always three days or less from SHTF. If the welfare checks don't come, if the grocery trucks stop, if the government goes crazy, I figure there are plenty of scenarios where systems break down and total chaos will be three days aways.

Offline Heavy G

  • Distorting the Space-Time Continuum
  • Moderator On Leave
  • Survival Veteran
  • *
  • Posts: 6779
  • Karma: 310
  • A misfit ant in a grasshopper world.
    • 299 Days
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #88 on: February 22, 2011, 03:40:33 PM »
Today's headlines:

* Libyan civil war
* Oil prices jump
* Indiana Democrats flee state to prevent vote on union bill
* 4 Americans killed by pirates off Somalia


Offline chrisdfw

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1300
  • Karma: 63
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #89 on: February 22, 2011, 03:50:55 PM »
* Indiana Democrats flee state to prevent vote on union bill

Now if the ones from other states will just leave... and not come back....

If they can persuade the republicans to go too, there might be hope....