Author Topic: When to bug out  (Read 8482 times)

Offline TANK

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When to bug out
« on: December 12, 2010, 07:42:31 AM »
After 30 years of preparing I still have not been able to decide what would be the best timing to bug out when I need to. I have about 350 miles to get to the cabin, getting over the Macinaw Bridge is going to be a challenge if not impossible.

Any help would be great.

Offline excaliber

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2010, 08:54:11 AM »
I would say watch the news,
 if something small happens the news will blow it out of proportion and cause a panic to get ratings,

if i was worried about the time factor I would have my stock pile, packed and ready to load, preferably already on a trailor in my garage.

most people will flood the stores for supplies first, and while they are fighting over bread, you need to be in route.

at the first sign, head out.

I would do a map then terrain recon before then for alternate/less known and traveled routes.

you need to know where every road that turns off the main road goes. so you can have several options.

and have fuel on hand, because after food people will go for gas.

 remember 350 miles is about the range of a tank of gas, and thats if you dont get caught sitting in traffic. dont expect to be able to find any between your home and BOL. have some stocked up.

on a side note, most people arent preppers and dont have a BOL. so they may stay put until their cupboards and refrig is empty, then be forced to bug out to "anywhere but here"

so you may be way ahead of the game and not know it.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2010, 09:01:33 AM by excaliber »

Offline cohutt

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2010, 09:48:41 AM »
Welcome to the board TANK. 

Since you've asked the BO/BI question a few times in the last few days, I clicked "bug out" from the podcast tag cloud (down the page on the right here: http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/)  as Jack has done some really good shows on this.

http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/tag/bug-out

Try episodes 502 from September of this year & 389 from October 2009, both specifically dedicated to this "dilemma".

There were shows that had listener questions tagged for "bug out" as well.


Offline Nicodemus

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2010, 10:40:03 AM »
I'd check to see if there were a Macinaw Bridge Cam or any other traffic cams along your route for that matter. It might give you an idea ahead of time if you're too late to use your primary route.

It's tough to determine when you should Bug Out, but if you have your equipment BOBs, BOVs and such ready to go you should be ahead of a large percentage of people fleeing the area. That is unless everyone forgoes panic buying and packing and just tries to leave.

As a prepper who once lived near Washington D.C., I had developed two plans for evacuation. The first plan was to bug out at the slightest hint of trouble rather than stay and see if the situation devolved into something worse. The second plan was to Bug In until I could find a decent window in which to leave. Later, due to a few freaky incidents, I realized that Bugging In wasn't an option. So, I decided that at the first sign of trouble I would pack up the BOV, which took me a little over 15 minutes in tests, and drive 45 to 60 minutes along my evac route. This put me beyond the major roads that led out of the area. At that point I would pull over, wait, listen to reports and watch the road. If worst came to worst it would mean that I hadn't driven the entire distance to my BOL, but had a head start on a mass exodus if I needed to get out. If situation didn't develop further it meant I could turn around and be home in an hour.

Basically my final plan was an attempt to get past any choke points without having to fully commit to a six hour drive to the BOL.

As preppers, we have to plan ahead, make a move, be ready to be wrong and call it an unscheduled Bug Out Test.  ;D
« Last Edit: December 12, 2010, 10:56:53 AM by Nicodemus »

Offline Have-Gun-Will-Travel

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2010, 11:00:10 AM »
unless your at you Bug out location before the SHTF, but if your not I would wait 1-2 weeks, you need to hunker down, not let anyone know
that your home unless you need protect your family from intruders.

That way if your hunkered down for a week or two, most idiots will kill each other off, and it will be safer to travel to you Bug out location.

Because if you try and leave when SHTF no matter how trained you are or good shot,  the odds of getting killed by someone that has never trained or is a bad shot is very high,the streets will be loaded with that kind for a week or two, and there will be spraying ammo everywhere.

And after all your planning do you really want to be killed right off the bat from someone that picked up a firearm the day before for the 1st time.

Offline TexGuy

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2010, 01:31:34 PM »
I don't understand why people believe there is going to be shootings like crazy. Lots of good survival people that have good understanding on things have this idea. While I do believe one should be prepared for the worse case that could happen, I don't buy the there will be spraying ammo everywhere.


Offline Heavy G

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2010, 01:33:56 PM »
This is one of the most important topics on this forum.

I wish I had something to say about this.  I think it's so dependent on the facts of your own situation and the SHTF situation.  

I think pre-packaging as much stuff as possible and having a route and alternates mapped out is key.  Lots of gas too.

Bugging out too late will get a lot of people killed.  I see little to no downside to bugging out too early.  

Offline TwoBluesMama

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2010, 03:14:37 PM »
This is one of the most important topics on this forum.

I wish I had something to say about this.  I think it's so dependent on the facts of your own situation and the SHTF situation.  

I think pre-packaging as much stuff as possible and having a route and alternates mapped out is key.  Lots of gas too.

Bugging out too late will get a lot of people killed.  I see little to no downside to bugging out too early.  

I think Heavy G has a great answer.

All I can add is I don't think you can make the decision until you know what you are faced with.

Natural disaster?  Blizzard? Civil unrest? Complete SHTF?

Being ready for ANYTHING is the key.  It would depend on what was happening whether I would stay in my home or head for the BOL but feel pretty ready for either. 

Offline TANK

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2010, 03:40:07 PM »
My thinking is, people don't riot, or just general idots during the winter most of the time.

So I think we have all winter, to plan, the earliest would be spring time or more towards summer

Offline Have-Gun-Will-Travel

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2010, 04:19:04 PM »
I don't understand why people believe there is going to be shootings like crazy. Lots of good survival people that have good understanding on things have this idea. While I do believe one should be prepared for the worse case that could happen, I don't buy the there will be spraying ammo everywhere.



LA riots
Katrina
and those were minor, although not much  spraying ammo,  a lot of people killing, idiots killing each other, and idiots killing innocent people for no cause.

So if it ever comes to entitlements stopping only for a few weeks, that will give the a lot of people a license  to kill.
you would be more endangered in the city, but remember a lot of people living out in the country (rural) are living entitlements to.
See what happens when you take their food and drug money away.


Offline phuttan

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2010, 05:33:53 PM »
To me the best bug out plan is to get out early before the masses get the idea. If you are ready to bug out and the roads are backed up or unsafe, then you just became a bug in person until it is feasible to leave. I say that if you see a potential need to bug out, keep a good watch on events. Not just local tv. Get a scanner that can pick up various types of radio traffic in your area. Listen to what people are reporting and the local ham traffic. When you think things warant getting out, get out unless there is rioting, etc along your route.

Pat

Offline phuttan

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2010, 06:15:26 PM »
I don't understand why people believe there is going to be shootings like crazy. Lots of good survival people that have good understanding on things have this idea. While I do believe one should be prepared for the worse case that could happen, I don't buy the there will be spraying ammo everywhere.



One of the big bug out event is Civil Unrest. Also known as rioting. Look at what is going on in England. Gov cuts back on spending to try to stave off economic disaster and the people riot, attack building and vehicles. Do you believe that the same thing won't happen here if Gov follows the suggestions of the Debt Commission. If Gov cuts spending acrossed the board, Socialist, Progressive and dependant people will be rioting in the street to try to scare the Gov into continuing the spending that they want. If we don't accept they our cities contain a lot of people that are just waiting for an excuse, then all of us city and suburban types could get blind sided.

Pat

Offline ore2u

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2010, 09:30:38 PM »
There is no way to say that any one is right or wrong until that particular situation happens. Depending on the area, the population, and the magnitude of the event, it might be better to hunker down for a while or run right now. We simply will not know until we are there.
 I will say that we "try" to prepare for everything. So it would be foolish not to prep for evac. or bug in as well. I really like the trailer idea. I personally have a small out building right next to my house. It is approx. 8x18 and dedicated to our preps including our pantry. I can simply back up to it and start loading it up. I am very lucky to live in oregon and in the pucker brush. I can be in the high cascades within 30 minutes and that is driving the speed limit. I figure I have a 20-30 minute head start on the closest city of 152k. I know that it isnt the place to post it but dont forget the TP in your preps!!!! It isn't going to be good when SHTF. But if it is already on the Fan it can stay there I don't need it on my hand!!!

Offline DeltaEchoVictor

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2010, 09:42:15 PM »
It's time to bug out when your current situation is untenable.

You can make it more complicated than that, but why?

Two years ago,when we were having crazy floods & crazy winds & I found myself in the backyard in knee deep water taking apart my dog kennel so I could move my dogs...was it time to bug out?

Or how about when I took pictures of the Coast Guard flying over my neighborhood in the middle of Missouri?  I can honestly say, I never expected to see the Coast Guard flying their helicopters over my neighborhood.

Time to bug out then?  Point is, IF shit's bad & you think you might need to leave....you need to leave.

Offline TexDaddy

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2010, 11:52:36 PM »
...IF shit's bad & you think you might need to leave....you need to leave.
This pretty much sums it up I think.

Too soon is better than too late. Too soon is easier to rectify than too late.

Offline average_joe

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #15 on: December 13, 2010, 05:48:36 AM »


Too soon is better than too late. Too soon is easier to rectify than too late.

Perfect...... ;D
I don't understand why people believe there is going to be shootings like crazy. Lots of good survival people that have good understanding on things have this idea. While I do believe one should be prepared for the worse case that could happen, I don't buy the there will be spraying ammo everywhere.



We live in a society where animals will kill you for the shoes you are wearing, will trample you to death to save $50 on a laptop. If a city wins a ________ championship the animals of our society feel it is within their right to burn and pillage city property and the property of innocent citizens. Now throw in a SHTF scenario where they feel they can do this with impunity and "shootings like crazy" doesn't sound too far fetched to me.

Offline Stein

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2010, 07:14:47 AM »
As Robert Dinero put it:

If there is any doubt, there is no doubt.

That said, the grass could appear greener where it really isn't. 

Look at the situation you are in, the situation at the BOL and the danger of getting from here to there.

Offline joeinwv

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #17 on: December 13, 2010, 07:34:59 AM »
I think you base the stay/go call based on the threat and whether you are facing potential property damage vs potential life threatening situation.

Can you reduce your property damage by staying home vs staying alive to pick up the pieces later.

I also think it depends on your BOL preps - if you have a packed trailer ready to roll and a fully stocked vacation home waiting, that's a lot different than evac'ing to a hotel or running off into the woods with a backpack.

The big key to me is being ready to leave so that if you do make the call to go, you can leave NOW.

Offline ncjeeper

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #18 on: December 13, 2010, 11:24:27 AM »
IF shit's bad & you think you might need to leave....you need to leave.
I agree.

Offline LdMorgan

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #19 on: December 25, 2010, 09:21:31 AM »
Dire situations evolve in a series of steps.

Even sudden occurrences like a nuclear or EMP attack, "dire" in themselves, get progressively worse with time. Lesser situations just tend to evolve a little more slowly.

Like Katrina: First they charted the hurricane, then predicted it. Then the stores got stripped, then gas prices went sky-high. Then the hurricane hit and the roofs blew off. Then the power went out, and the flood water started rolling in. (Etc. Etc.)

The time to bug out was long before the cops came around to rob you of your firearms.

Figure out the most likely bug out situations for your location, and define the points at which each has evolved to the Bug Out Moment.

Bug out then, or sooner.

Ideally, be in you BOL when the time to bug out arrives. That's called preemptive positioning.


Offline Omega Man

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #20 on: December 25, 2010, 06:37:38 PM »
When to bug out?  Excellent question.

Ideally, the best time to bug out is an hour before an emergency crisis hits (or before the rest of the population learns of it), the roads would be normal, gas still available, stores no more busy than usual...however, short of ESP or a crystal ball, I don't know to see the future before it gets here (...if you manage to find a way to do so, I'd appreciate a tip on it :)).

Realistically, the best way to know when to bug out is by situational and environmental awareness.  Watch the news every day, listen to what your neighbors and coworkers are concerned about...is there a hurricane off the coast headed your way, are there any concerns in the news for a terrorist action in the near future, are the local merchants worried about a union strike cutting off the flow of food and goods to their stories (resulting in shortages and possible rioting/looting), have there been any "social" incidents that might spark civil unrest and violence in the streets (such as a police shooting of an immigrant, minority or unarmed suspect, local politicians cutting off government services due to tax shortfall, etc.).

The things to look for really vary depending on you, your situation and your location in the country, as the potential pitfalls are different in each person's case, so take stock of your situation to see what effects you the most.

There are certain red flags you should think out and discuss with your family, to decide in advance when you will say screw it and hit the road.

If there are angry protests over government cutbacks of services and protesters are rioting, breaking windows and setting cars on fire at city hall...and you live out in the burbs, you are probably safe to hunker down and stay put.

If there is a trucking strike that shuts off the flow of goods to area markets and food is flying off the shelves and not be restocked, you are probably okay to live on your reserve foods, but to be on the safe side you might want to keep the doors locked, a gun loaded and keep your ear to the ground in case things start to deteriorate.  (Again, it depends on where you life).

If there is an train wreck and a huge cloud of chlorine gas is forming from leaking tanker cars...and drifting towards your area...grab you BOB, lock up the house, move any important stuff you absolutely need to the car (meds, shotgun, the kids, the pets, etc.) and get rolling.

If there is an outbreak of a new strain of mutant virus, for which there is no cure, and people are dying in the streets of downtown, and the governor has ordered a state of emergency, and the national guard is moving in to quarantine your area...don't even turn off the T.V....grab your BOB, wife, kids and fly like the wind...otherwise you'll find yourself in a traffic jam where nobody is moving and the national guard is instructing everyone to go home from behind the business ends of M-16s.

You really need to think it through and work out what and when you'd bug out in advance...and then keep your ear to the ground in case any of those events come to pass.  If events unfold and you no longer feel safe, that should be a red flag in and of itself.  If the event is as bad at you thought it might be, you will have been very wise to run when you could.  If the event passes without being a crisis...there is nothing to stop you from turning around and going home.  Don't worry about feeling foolish for running if a feared crisis didn't materialize...better safe than sorry.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2010, 06:50:17 PM by Omega Man »

Offline Omega Man

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #21 on: December 25, 2010, 07:01:25 PM »
I don't understand why people believe there is going to be shootings like crazy. Lots of good survival people that have good understanding on things have this idea. While I do believe one should be prepared for the worse case that could happen, I don't buy the there will be spraying ammo everywhere.

Predatory people are out there right now, ready to kill, rape and pillage.  The presence of order, law enforcement and redundant systems of Emergency response suppresses most of their activities, but when disaster strikes, such as Katrina or the L.A. Riots, these violent sociopaths suddenly find themselves unrestrained.  They murder, loot, shoot at coast guard rescue helicopters as they did during Katrina, they rob jewelry stores and kill security guards, in the case of Reginald Denny (Truck driver in the L.A. Riots), he was pulled from his truck, beaten, robbed, shot and left for dead by gang members apparently just for fun.  In New Orleans after Katrina, they tried to sniper cops who have their hands full imposing selective law enforcement (by selective law enforcement, I mean it was a police policy decision, made because of the dire nature of the crisis, to allow looting, but only for food and water...looting wide screen TVs was still a crime).

Survivalists know that deep down, many people are basically assholes.

Offline ChEng

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #22 on: December 27, 2010, 06:37:37 PM »
TANK,

This is, indeed, a very important issue.  I spend a bit of time on this subject in my Intro book - updating it now, this question needs more "air time."  The stuff in this thread is good thought-fodder - I'm actually adding this thread to my book.

Here is something else from my book that I have not seen in this thread: (the SIP in this quote is Shelter-In-Place)

Quote from: ChEng's Intro Book
As with SIP, sometimes you will get to make the decision yourself, while other times, the situation may make the decision for you; if your house is going up in a “blaze of glory”, you certainly will not remain in the house.  Stick around until the firemen are done, and everything is cooling off, then hop into the vehicle and head to your bug-out location.

Sometimes you control the circumstances, sometimes they control you :o - Either way, it is still better to be prepared, than not. ;)
 

Offline TwoBluesMama

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #23 on: December 27, 2010, 08:30:13 PM »

Sometimes you control the circumstances, sometimes they control you :o - Either way, it is still better to be prepared, than not. ;)
 

Ooo - I think I'd like this quote on a t shirt!   :D

Offline ChEng

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #24 on: December 28, 2010, 06:23:49 PM »
Ooo - I think I'd like this quote on a t shirt!   :D

TBM,

www.queensboro.com (that's where I got my shirts for my Engineering company)

I want credit though ;)  "Shirt by TBM, Idea by ChEng"  :rofl:

Sorry, easily amused here.

Offline TANK

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #25 on: January 01, 2011, 05:12:31 PM »
Hi there Boys and Girls. My wife told me about this article, I didn't believe her so I looked it up myself. Spring might be the time to go to the BOL See what you think.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oils-surge-in-2010-paves-the-apf-1258480888.html?x=0

Offline Heavy G

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #26 on: January 02, 2011, 06:35:46 PM »
<gentle nudge>  topic is "When to bug out"

Offline ChEng

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Re: When to bug out
« Reply #27 on: January 04, 2011, 06:58:19 PM »
<gentle nudge>  topic is "When to bug out"

Friday, 14 Jan 11 - the start of a three-day weekend (at least for normal straight day-shift people, just not me :()

Check out the news for that day and pick a good excuse/reason for a bug out!  "Ohhh Noooo!  Deluth is getting a blizzard. :o  We better get out of Dodge now!  Yeah, I know that Deluth weather rarely affects us here in Tampa, we just need to go now!"  -  "Yikes!  They found a meth lab in Sydney.  We have to go before the cloud gets to us.  Yeah, I know that the cloud will take a while to get to us here in London, we just need to go now!" :D  (Of course, those of you actually in Sydney or London or otherwise, outside the USA, may need to pick a different day - we here in the USA celebrate Dr. Martin Luther King day that weekend and most people have three days off.)

Now, grab the kids and the bags and run out to the car, fire it up and head out down the road.  If you have a real BOL that will handle the cold winter weather (here in the Northern Hemisphere), great.  Make a nice vacation of it.  Work on your BOL a bit.  Check out your supplies and make sure that they will meet your needs in a real situation.  If your BOL is to a friend/relative's house, call a couple days before the disaster hits and plan a couple of hours or maybe overnight or the weekend.  If you don't have any real BOL, just head away for a little while, find a restaurant and settle in for a nice dinner out - if you have a bit of money, actually go to a motel, like you would for a real emergency.  Go visit, talk about preps and then head home on Monday (or after dinner), after the blizzard or poisonous cloud dies out.