Author Topic: "The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market"  (Read 1097 times)

Offline cohutt

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"The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market"
« on: December 24, 2010, 05:32:47 AM »
Housing analysis from Dallas Fed

One interesting point- home ownership had remained stable at roughly 64% of households for over 30 years.  The effort to increase home ownership via freddie et al that started in the mid 90s pushed this up by just another 5%, which was enough to inflate home prices substantially over long term valuation trends.

This incremental increase was enough to blow up the system. 

(Yay government. )

The short point of the article- home prices continue downward trend that was only delayed by the interventions attempted so far.

The possibility of "reversion to the mean" is something to always respect regardless of the application;  the settings change but people acting as a group never change. 

Offline RationalHusker

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Re: "The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market"
« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2010, 07:00:36 PM »
Puke!  I've been saying that there are serious declines in residential real estate still in front of us for about a year now.  My problem is we're not ready to move, yet.  I mean, we could try to sell and then rent for a few years, but we bought in early 2008, and I have committments that will keep us in the general area we are now for another 3-4 years.  Getting out now could save us some equity losses, but you have to live somewhere, and there are problems/drawbacks to renting, too.  Not to mention moving is has expenses associated with it, too, and I'd rather do it once (in 4 years) than twice (now and again in 4 years).  Should have pulled the trigger in early spring...I'd probably be less stressed, and we'd have absolutely zero debt.