Author Topic: How close are we to SHTF?  (Read 156354 times)

Offline donaldj

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1384
  • Karma: 87
    • Keep and Bear, LLC
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #30 on: January 26, 2011, 11:09:46 AM »
I can see a gradual decline in everybody's standard of living but actual SHTF?...not gonna happen.

For a lot of people, this minor shift takes them from "barely getting by" to "do whatever it takes". There are a lot of people in this category and they are pretty concentrated in population centers. In my mind, this would create the SHTF scenario. 

Add in a little martial law, the government trying to disarm the populace (for their own safety), a few National Guard troops getting the business end of what they're trying to confiscate...

Society and government are on a precipice. Responsible society is largely sick of government interference, grasshopper society is fearful for cutbacks and resenting the responsible ones, and government sees the only way to manage the situation is to exert more control over both. There's not a whole lot of times we can go through this feedback loop before the whole circuit blows up.

I give it until 2015 if Obama is reelected. He wont have to worry about reelection and will impose his totalitarianism on us. If a Tea Party approved Republican win, I think we'll have at least 10 years longer... if they stay true to their cause.

Offline Outdoorfury

  • Survivalist Mentor
  • *****
  • Posts: 421
  • Karma: 7
  • Si vis pacem para bellum
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #31 on: January 26, 2011, 08:32:53 PM »
Si vis pacem, para bellum

Offline hillclimber

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1093
  • Karma: 28
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #32 on: January 27, 2011, 08:17:05 AM »
Well I agree with the "false recovery" theory, but based on what I see for myself every day....I'd say we're close to being topped out right now.
I agree with Jack on most everything. When I listen to the call-ins and listener feedback shows, I've often thought of how similar our upbringings must have been.

The only things I don't agree exactly with is the false recovery and I believe things are getting ready to go sour.
I believe we are in about the best of the recovery right now. I just don't see it getting better.
Living in a mountain resort town has given me a different outlook into human nature.
People here should know how to live in this area, but they don't. Even here, they are soft and lazy. The working men here used to make their living from the land and the forest. They used to go to work carrying lunch-boxes and a thermos full of coffee. When they got there, they ran a 35lb chain-saw, all day. When they got home they'd work in the garden or mow the lawn. If the power went out, or the water pipes froze, it was no big deal. If you couldn't fix it yourself, you knew someone who could.
Now all I see is a slightly more masculine version of "metro-sexuals" who expect every thing to be easy. If things do go bad, I see the "people factor" becoming a real problem. We lost power for almost a week back in '98, and the crime rate went through the roof. I imagine things everywhere are much the same. So, I wonder how much "stuff" will have to happen before the worm starts to turn.
Sorry for the commentary. I just don't have much faith in human nature anymore...

Offline 12XLR8

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 50
  • Karma: 0
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #33 on: January 30, 2011, 11:38:25 PM »
SHTF is happening in Egypt

Offline NWBowhunter

  • Survivalist Mentor
  • *****
  • Posts: 832
  • Karma: 24
  • Got Elk!
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #34 on: January 31, 2011, 06:42:52 AM »
One giant step closer
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8291470/Egypt-and-Tunisia-usher-in-the-new-era-of-global-food-revolutions.html Article heralding the new era of food revolutions.

Egyptians buying water at three times the normal rate. Store shelves empty.

Yes SHTF there.

endurance

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #35 on: January 31, 2011, 08:01:52 AM »
Tunisia, Egypt, Ivory Coast; it's the entire region that's in jeopardy, and while the consequences in the US are unnoticeable at this time, the threat of spreading across borders in that region could make a local SHTF actually have an impact on our lives.  Oil and Israel are on the line, both things we'll get involved in.

Time will tell.

Offline MacReady

  • Survivor
  • ***
  • Posts: 183
  • Karma: 9
  • Dolly Sods, WV Oct '09
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #36 on: January 31, 2011, 08:28:27 AM »
I do feel like we're teetering on the brink of disaster, but that's just probably because I watch the news every night! -MH

Lol, I was feeling the same was just last night as I read this, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/world/middleeast/31israel.html?_r=1

"But others noted that the best-organized political force in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood, which is hostile to Israel and close to Hamas, the Palestinian rulers in Gaza whose weapons-smuggling the Egyptian government works to block."

Whether it's the aforementioned Muslim Brotherhood or someone else, what happens if they try to restrict or block all shipments passing through the suez canal?  I'd say either $200+ oil, WW3 or both.

If it wasn't that article, it was one of the countless pieces on our economy.  I don't claim to be very smart but to me the numbers don't add up and all the debt, personal, federal or otherwise has got to bite us in the ass eventually.  Sorry, I don't believe that Timothy Franz Geithner, Bernanke or anyone else can keep the system up and running by changing accounting practices, quantitative easing or any other magic bullet they dream up.  The tin foil hatter in me fears that they know this and are on the NWO bank roll and are just following orders and furthering a grand scheme that leads to a one world govt and global currency... see what happens when you watch the news!  That's crazy talk, the NWO doesn't exist but inflation does.

Both of those scenarios exist in the mainstream media, what happens when you go further down the rabbit hole?  Peak oil, food shortage, China siphoning the great lakes for fresh water, global warming, global freezing, biblical prophecy, ICBMs in Venezuela, Islamic extremists (some who govern nations), etc.

Maybe it's all for ratings or maybe were playing Russian roulette with a 1000 round revolver and are putting rounds in faster than were taking them out.  Im not ruling out anything on the scale ranging from personal SHTF to teotwawki.  I believe It could happen as abruptly as a couple of planes flying into the WTC.  It could be a 10 year process that starts tmw or that started a few years ago.

Sorry for the rant, I've definitely been spending too much time reading news articles.  Irregardless, I'm going to the grocery store later to invest about $100 the best way I know how.  Then I'm gonna do something nice for the wife and afterwards I'll spend some quality time with my son and take pictures.  Having my first child a year and a half ago has kicked some kind of paternal instinct into overdrive.  That, along with a somewhat dangerous profession has reinforced the philosophy of living each day like it could be my last and working to provide long term security for my family.

Thanks for listening, I'm a little better now. Lol.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2011, 09:41:25 AM by WV Leo »

Offline Mike Honcho

  • Survivor
  • ***
  • Posts: 165
  • Karma: 18
  • Est. 1974
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #37 on: January 31, 2011, 08:52:22 AM »
SHTF is happening in Egypt

Well, it's a good thing they sent the Army! I don't see how their president is still in power; even the army seems to support the protesters...




Offline MacReady

  • Survivor
  • ***
  • Posts: 183
  • Karma: 9
  • Dolly Sods, WV Oct '09
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #38 on: January 31, 2011, 09:08:36 AM »
Dammit Honcho, that post just got me to turn off the kids cartoons and turn on Fox News.  I will not get sucked in.

Offline Saint

  • Senior Survivalist
  • ****
  • Posts: 207
  • Karma: 14
  • Bury it and bury the shovel.
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #39 on: January 31, 2011, 09:23:47 AM »
I'm a daily subscriber to the Air Force Magazine, this just came out from the editor:
  • President Hu Jin Tao of the PRC visited the US … and right before his visit, the Chinese flew their first test flight of their 5th generation fighter, the J-20.
    The Vice Chief of Staff of the Chinese Air Force declared publicly that the J-20 would not be deployed in 2020 as stated by Sec Gates, but it would enter the PLAAF by 2017 … not long after the USAF F-35 achieves its Initial Operational Capability.
    Riots on the streets of Tunisia caused the government to fall.
    This was followed by riots in Yemen and by severe demonstrations in Egypt. 
    The Egyptian street activity has sent shock waves throughout the world.  Oil has jumped $4 per barrel and countries are scrambling to get their citizens out of the country.
    The Russian press speculated that Russia would offer their 5th generation fighter, the PAK-FA, to Brazil.  This aircraft has also been developed in partnership with India.  The prototype of this aircraft also flew its first flight.
    The German press reported that Iran and Venezuela reached an agreement to station Iranian surface-to-surface missiles and advanced surface-to-air missiles in Venezuela.  The piece went on to say the surface-to-surface missiles have the range to reach Miami.
    Talks meant to urge Iran toward heeding U.N. Security Council demands to stop uranium enrichment collapsed, with Tehran shrugging off calls by six world powers to cease the activity that could be harnessed to make nuclear arms.  No new date for another meeting has been set.
    In a separate report, Iran flatly stated that it intends to continue to enrich uranium and to proceed towards development of nuclear weapons.
    For the first time in 20 years, Burma convenes its parliament – with the members all supporters of the junta.  Opponents call it a “sham.”
    According to non-government estimates, Pakistan has now doubled its nuclear arsenal to more than 100 deployed weapons.
    Cyber “attacks” continue to occur against the US … though not widely reported.  In a separate report, half of U.S. government Web sites are vulnerable to commonplace Domain Name System (DNS) attacks because they haven't deployed a new authentication mechanism that was mandated in 2008.
    The point of above … is, very simply, that … except possibly for the last item, no one predicted that these items would occur when they did.  Most have looked optimistically at Afghanistan and definitely stated that all conflicts of the future would resemble the counter insurgency on-going in Afghanistan.  It doesn’t take much for any of you to posit scenarios based on any of the events above.  That is why we have argued that we must have a strong military – one that is trained and ready across the spectrum on conflict.  We can’t wait for conflict to be imminent before we start to build up our forces and their equipment.[/
it's not just "us" in these communities thinking/pondering/worrying - there's a bunch of folks; we're just the one's prepping for the laundry list of "what if's"
so, how close are "we" to SHTF? right now (and I'd argue always is) that's relative: to your geography, your home economics and your mindset

Offline Mike Honcho

  • Survivor
  • ***
  • Posts: 165
  • Karma: 18
  • Est. 1974
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #40 on: January 31, 2011, 10:02:00 AM »
...Cyber “attacks” continue to occur against the US … though not widely reported.  In a separate report, half of U.S. government Web sites are vulnerable to commonplace Domain Name System (DNS) attacks because they haven't deployed a new authentication mechanism that was mandated in 2008...
I work in Cyber-Security... this is a VERY real concern and is happening as we speak... If it seems like a minor threat just think how dependent our military, as well as our society is on information technology (IT).... This would be a major SHTF if a large scale bot were to take control of our (or most of our) vital information systems... Still don't believe this could happen; well, it already has (no tinfoil hat needed):

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/science/july-dec10/chinainternet_11-26.html

Dammit Honcho, that post just got me to turn off the kids cartoons and turn on Fox News.  I will not get sucked in.

Oops! My bad Leo; my apologies to the kids as well :D

Offline MacReady

  • Survivor
  • ***
  • Posts: 183
  • Karma: 9
  • Dolly Sods, WV Oct '09
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #41 on: January 31, 2011, 10:14:26 AM »
I work in Cyber-Security... this is a VERY real concern and is happening as we speak... If it seems like a minor threat just think how dependent our military, as well as our society is on information technology (IT).... This would be a major SHTF if a large scale bot were to take control of our (or most of our) vital information systems... Still don't believe this could happen; well, it already has (no tinfoil hat needed):

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/science/july-dec10/chinainternet_11-26.html

Wow, that's some scary shit.  Thanks for posting this.  A bit off topic but it reminds me of a recent caller who asked Jack about opting out of electronic health records.  Jacks response was along the lines of " not that much of a threat that the govt knows you broke an arm or took a specific medication bc they'll find out anyway, if you knew of the information they have already collected on you, this would be the least of your concerns". He didn't elaborate further.  I've been wanting to call and ask him to elaborate.  Maybe I'll just start a new thread.

endurance

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #42 on: January 31, 2011, 10:20:56 AM »
Can I just interject something that I've learned over my years as a prepper and someone who did their senior thesis on the effects of media violence on conflict resolution.  Don't watch your news, read it.  Human beings did not evolve to be exposed to routine images of violence in video scrolling across the screen.  It causes anxiety and shuts down the higher processes of the brain.  The research I did showed a very robust connection between exposure to media violence and the inability to come up with creative solutions to daily problems.  

If you read your news there's much less emotional charge and you retain that higher thinking brain of yours to come up with solutions.  Besides, it's not like you can do anything to resolve the middle east crisis from your couch.  But reading it, you're likely to view different aspects like observing how social change is evolving in the region, what preps would make the most sense if you were immersed in the situation (either here or while on vacation there), and you can analyze the situation more objectively, with less emotional charge.

Heck, my research showed that folks would just get in fewer arguments with their spouses when they weren't watching the chaos of the world on TV every night.  Obviously YMMV, but just take it under consideration.  We didn't evolve to watch stuff like that and ignore it.  I just don't need that kind of anxiety in my life when I have wood to split, food to cook, and a relationship to nurture at home.

Offline Scotty2Hotty

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 64
  • Karma: 2
  • All the way!
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #43 on: January 31, 2011, 10:30:26 AM »
 Don't watch your news, read it.  Human beings did not evolve to be exposed to routine images of violence in video scrolling across the screen.  It causes anxiety ...

I have to say after years of watching the news, then stopping, my bad dreams seem to have lessened.  It took me a while to figure out that falling asleep after watching the nightly news gave me nightmares.

Offline MacReady

  • Survivor
  • ***
  • Posts: 183
  • Karma: 9
  • Dolly Sods, WV Oct '09
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #44 on: January 31, 2011, 11:03:35 AM »
That makes a lot of sense.  I rarely watch TV at all.  When I do it's usually an old episode of something from Netflix.  If The wife would let me sell our TVs I would do it in a second.  I do know they can have an important role in gathering intel in emergencies but the negatives out weigh this IMO.  The wife watches too much TV and what she watches is garbage.  >90% of programming is garbage a lot of which agrandizes behaviors and a lack of morals that is the base for America's problems and ignorance.  It sure is good for funneling money though.

Anyway most of the good news never makes it to TV.  Back to the topic, it doesn't seem like much of a stretch that the constant scenes of violence, rioting and war only hasten any future SHTF situations by inflaming and desensitizing the sheeple.

Offline 12XLR8

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 50
  • Karma: 0
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #45 on: January 31, 2011, 10:38:45 PM »
I beg to differ. If we didn't have television we wouldn't have found out what happened in NY on 911 hat fast as it happened (live)
If there was a major disaster wouldn't you want to be informed? what better way than a TV? Well that's just my honest opinon ;D

endurance

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #46 on: February 01, 2011, 08:02:12 AM »
I beg to differ. If we didn't have television we wouldn't have found out what happened in NY on 911 hat fast as it happened (live)
If there was a major disaster wouldn't you want to be informed? what better way than a TV? Well that's just my honest opinon ;D
If it's a local breaking story, that's another case, but leaving a TV on all day playing the news channels or watching the nightly news really can overload the senses.

Offline hillclimber

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1093
  • Karma: 28
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #47 on: February 01, 2011, 01:33:10 PM »
I feel much better when I don't watch TV at all. Both TV and (dare I say) the internet are like a drug.
I listen to the radio alot. Probably just as bad....... :-\

endurance

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #48 on: February 01, 2011, 02:25:56 PM »
I feel much better when I don't watch TV at all. Both TV and (dare I say) the internet are like a drug.
I listen to the radio alot. Probably just as bad....... :-\
Not likely.  The problem is the images and how they enter the brain (direct line into the lymbic system) vs. reading or listening, which is processed by higher parts of the brain. 

While obsessing on stories probably isn't the best thing to do (but we all get hooked from time to time), it's the graphic visual images that mainline and present the biggest problem.  The best book on the topic is Lt. Col. Dave Grossman's On Killing, but there's a lot of sound research out there on the topic.  My advice to couples is 'don't try to balance your checkbook with the nightly news going on in the background'.  Some fight just aren't worth having. ;)

Offline hillclimber

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1093
  • Karma: 28
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #49 on: February 01, 2011, 02:52:13 PM »
True Dat!! :D

Offline PistolWhipped

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1979
  • Karma: 87
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #50 on: February 01, 2011, 08:19:14 PM »
How close are we?  Let me check my calender.

Damn, don't seem to have that one scheduled yet.  Not sure where to pencil it in . . .

Offline Outdoorfury

  • Survivalist Mentor
  • *****
  • Posts: 421
  • Karma: 7
  • Si vis pacem para bellum
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #51 on: February 04, 2011, 09:15:42 AM »
The scary thing for me is that I realize how unprepared I am. I am about 90% off better than the common Joe, but still think about everyone else. We are a small community ladies and gents. The world is going through changes. We need to preach the gospel of preparedness more now than ever.

Offline donaldj

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1384
  • Karma: 87
    • Keep and Bear, LLC
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #52 on: February 04, 2011, 10:42:56 AM »
The world is going through changes. We need to preach the gospel of preparedness more now than ever.

This.

The more prepared everyone is, the less desperate situations will become. The more they will save and prep, the less ammo you'll need to fend them off the food you saved for your own.

Offline Outdoorfury

  • Survivalist Mentor
  • *****
  • Posts: 421
  • Karma: 7
  • Si vis pacem para bellum
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #53 on: February 04, 2011, 02:29:24 PM »
This.

The more prepared everyone is, the less desperate situations will become. The more they will save and prep, the less ammo you'll need to fend them off the food you saved for your own.

Amen

Offline 12XLR8

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 50
  • Karma: 0
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #54 on: February 05, 2011, 01:41:49 AM »
This.

The more prepared everyone is, the less desperate situations will become. The more they will save and prep, the less ammo you'll need to fend them off the food you saved for your own.


true that! would be nice if more people thought that way

endurance

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #55 on: February 05, 2011, 09:39:28 AM »

true that! would be nice if more people thought that way
That's why there's some serious advantages to BOLs in Utah and Idaho where there's a strong LDS presence.  Church mandated prepping makes for good neighbors.

Offline 12XLR8

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 50
  • Karma: 0
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #56 on: February 09, 2011, 01:20:15 AM »
I agree all churches AND schools should mandate prepping for an emergency. :)


Did anyone watch ( After armageddon ) on the history channel? that documentary was pretty good

Offline Paulie

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 19
  • Karma: 0
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #57 on: February 09, 2011, 11:02:17 AM »
I found the most interesting thing about this thread was that most of the dark and doomer statements came from folks who have less than 50 posts.  Not sure if this is a chicken or egg argument, but it does seem that most of us who've been around for a while tend not to see the darkest stuff as the most likely.  It's hard to figure if that's because of Jack's influence or whether we're here because we agree with Jack.

Just an observation.

Endurance, with all due respect I think the time posted on the board is a misnomer. As somebody that grew up in Africa and have experienced SHTF more than once, I can tell you that it can happen in an instant. Will it happen here? Well we don’t know, but given that we have no idea what type of event will happen there is no reason to simply dismiss the notion that events can happen quickly.

I was watching the discovery channel a while back about the super massive volcano under Yellowstone. If that thing pops your life as you know it will be over in less than a day.  Just ask any of the 75,000 that had to be evacuated from near Mount Merapi in Indonesia

Offline Oakie

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 91
  • Karma: 4
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #58 on: February 09, 2011, 06:35:29 PM »
If you read your news there's much less emotional charge and you retain that higher thinking brain of yours to come up with solutions.  

Not to mention the time you save avoiding the commercials and hype as they tell you bits of what they're not going to reveal until later in the broadcast.  Ten minutes worth of news often takes 30 minutes or more to be revealed.

As for how close are we to SHTF?
Some of us are closer than others and we never know.  The more we've prepped, the less we need be concerned.  As a few mentioned; the more prepared our neighbors are the better chance we have of resuming a community wide level of stability.

Thox Spuddy

  • Guest
Re: How close are we to SHTF?
« Reply #59 on: February 09, 2011, 06:47:08 PM »
I found the most interesting thing about this thread was that most of the dark and doomer statements came from folks who have less than 50 posts.  Not sure if this is a chicken or egg argument, but it does seem that most of us who've been around for a while tend not to see the darkest stuff as the most likely.  It's hard to figure if that's because of Jack's influence or whether we're here because we agree with Jack.

Just an observation.

The more I engage myself with survival related material the more I see the "darkest stuff" as being more likely, but that is complimented by an increase in confidence of surviving due to listening to the suggested actions to take in response to the hypothetical outcome of our present dilemma, and doing it.